The idea about always only having 60 cards is that you have the highest chance to draw your best cards. With Gitaxian Probe, you essentially have 56 cards in your deck, on top of the ability to see your opponent's hand. The one flaw I see with my argument is that if you draw one in your opening hand, you essentially have 6 cards + one unknown card. Thoughts?
The deckthinning is negligible, thats why you dont see people randomly running Street Wraith without a really good reason.
The real benefit to Gitaxian Probe is the information, which is often an incredibly valuable commodity in a game of Legacy. Having the information to play around your opponent's hand can and does win games.
I've actually heard people suggest this rather seriously, and while I think thats taking it to a pretty extreme point, there is at least a partial element of truth to it. Gitaxian Probe is a good card, and should at least be considered as an available option when deck building.
There are a lot of competitive decks I dont believe it fits in at all, but that consideration should at least be made before its brushed aside.
The idea about always only having 60 cards is that you have the highest chance to draw your best cards. With Gitaxian Probe, you essentially have 56 cards in your deck, on top of the ability to see your opponent's hand. The one flaw I see with my argument is that if you draw one in your opening hand, you essentially have 6 cards + one unknown card. Thoughts?
2 life loss per pop is relevant in eternal, where storm combo and burn exists. The 2 life translates to "target opponent draws a card and puts 2 mana of any color to his mana pool next turn." There are a lot of effects that might make that worth it, but peeking at opponent's hand + card doesn't.
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"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn
The main problem is the life loss can come back to cost you the game. There are decks that use Gitaxian Probe to more of a positive effect than the loss of life that they take, but it is not for every deck. It would suck to multiple Probes against an Aggro opponent (although admittedly Aggro is very uncommon in Legacy and Modern).
That being said, there are people who say that Gitaxian Probe will be much more prevalent in Legacy in the future. It makes sense considering Brainstorm and Force of Will lead to a huge percentage of Blue decks that could possibly pay the U mana or 2 life without it mattering.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The information in eternal formats is sometimes worth it. Every deck, though? Not necessary. I see it as great in any variant of Storm, Delver, Twin, SnT, other random combo decks...
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One of these day I have to get myself organizized.
The key word is "mulligan transparency". You don't know what you would cycle into if you keep a shaky hand with Probes. Is it the much needed land? Or a 4-drop? It's just not worth it.
This is the primary reason.
There are actually other 0 mana cantrips that do not cost life (Urza's Bauble, Mishra's Bauble) and neither of them is played in anything because the advantage of drawing your best cards more reliably is less valuable than the games you lose due to having less information when making mulligan decisions. (Edit: They are 'slow-trips' too which is a minor factor but even if they were not the result would be the same)
The only time those cards have seen play is when they have had other synergies (such as with Future Sight) and even then they are not auto-includes.
Gitaxian Probe is better than those two because its effect is relevant on its own, but still the cost is non-trivial.
if you're playing a combo deck, you'll probably be fine.
Otherwise, yeah, the life loss is not worth it. Consistency is always a good thing, but the payment may not be worth it. Same reason why mono-colored decks don't run fetchlands: the life loss is not worth the reduced chance of drawing a land. (However, fetches are often used for other reasons such as grim lavamancer or with Brainstorm)
Probes are more relevant in combo decks, where you can afford to lose life, lose life, lose life, then win in one turn.
Fair/creature decks dont really benefit from probe due to the added importance of the life difference. These decks dont win in a single turn, often having to grind their opponents down turn after turn while taking damage.
I think that evaluating your opening hand can be one of the most important things you do in a game of Magic, and filling your deck with what are effectively wild cards in your opener is a good way to lose games because you can't properly evaluate what your hands are actually capable of doing.
The information you gain from looking at an opponent's hand is not as important as the information you can lose about your own hand by playing Gitaxian Probe in a deck "just because."
A lot of good points so far, but I'd like to emphasize the fact that the life loss matters. While the first copy isn't too painful, if you play 4x Probes in your deck, you're bound to draw multiples at some point, and they do start to hurt if you need to pay for more than one (much like shocklands). I've played the Modern Storm vs Burn matchup a few times, and it's pretty difficult for storm because all of your life payments (fetchlands, shocklands, Probes) make it very easy for them to kill you by turn 4 or even earlier, so you get punished harshly for stumbling or losing the die roll. The card is strong enough that you'd still play it if you can take special advantage of the card (for the information in combo decks, or for synergy in Delver/Snapcaster decks), but you shouldn't just jam it in a typical deck, especially if you can't pay for it without life.
Don't discount the fact that Probe can be tossed to Force of Will. If you're suggesting people play Probe without blue, I don't believe I can support that, particularly in light of Thoughtseize, which nets you the same information and the ability to interact with your opponent's hand, all at the additional cost of one mana.
Do I think it's underplayed? Yes. Do I think it's an auto-include in every deck? Absolutely not.
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Currently playing:
Standard: I, for one, welcome our new rhinoceros overlords
Modern: Pod's dead, Bob's back.
Legacy: Lands, Deathblade, Death and Taxes, Elves, MUD
Retired Legacy: Merfolk, Goblins, Jund, Delver, Reanimator
I think that evaluating your opening hand can be one of the most important things you do in a game of Magic, and filling your deck with what are effectively wild cards in your opener is a good way to lose games because you can't properly evaluate what your hands are actually capable of doing.
Alternatively, for readers who aren't used to Legacy, here's another way to look at it: If you have two scrylands in Standard and a bunch of spells that cost 3+, do you mulligan that hand? Sure, you could scry into what you want... or you could brick. It's not quite the same concept, but in the end it's still something that makes mulligan decisions more difficult because you have to evaluate more unknowns. When I play ANT, I'm always happy to see a Probe in my opening hand. I'm less than enthused to see multiple.
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URStormRU
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The real benefit to Gitaxian Probe is the information, which is often an incredibly valuable commodity in a game of Legacy. Having the information to play around your opponent's hand can and does win games.
I've actually heard people suggest this rather seriously, and while I think thats taking it to a pretty extreme point, there is at least a partial element of truth to it. Gitaxian Probe is a good card, and should at least be considered as an available option when deck building.
There are a lot of competitive decks I dont believe it fits in at all, but that consideration should at least be made before its brushed aside.
-Land
-Land
-Gitaxian Probe
-Gitaxian Probe
-Gitaxian Probe
-Gitaxian Probe
-Spell that's good
Do you mulligan?
Modern: U M'Olk; B Goodstuff
2 life loss per pop is relevant in eternal, where storm combo and burn exists. The 2 life translates to "target opponent draws a card and puts 2 mana of any color to his mana pool next turn." There are a lot of effects that might make that worth it, but peeking at opponent's hand + card doesn't.
"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn
That being said, there are people who say that Gitaxian Probe will be much more prevalent in Legacy in the future. It makes sense considering Brainstorm and Force of Will lead to a huge percentage of Blue decks that could possibly pay the U mana or 2 life without it mattering.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)-You essentially start the game with a 56 card deck-
Then you also need to include:
-You essentially start the game with 12 life-
Modern Warp / UR Control / UR Storm / Naya Breachshift / ElectroBalance
Solidarity / Lands / Sneak and Show / Grixis Delver / Reanimator / Belcher / Storm / Dredge
This is the primary reason.
There are actually other 0 mana cantrips that do not cost life (Urza's Bauble, Mishra's Bauble) and neither of them is played in anything because the advantage of drawing your best cards more reliably is less valuable than the games you lose due to having less information when making mulligan decisions. (Edit: They are 'slow-trips' too which is a minor factor but even if they were not the result would be the same)
The only time those cards have seen play is when they have had other synergies (such as with Future Sight) and even then they are not auto-includes.
Gitaxian Probe is better than those two because its effect is relevant on its own, but still the cost is non-trivial.
This is basically it. For a more in depth discussion, go look up any of the Fetch lands threads.
Build a deck with 52 cards + 4 Probe/Wraith
See if the life loss matters
lol
if you're playing a combo deck, you'll probably be fine.
Otherwise, yeah, the life loss is not worth it. Consistency is always a good thing, but the payment may not be worth it. Same reason why mono-colored decks don't run fetchlands: the life loss is not worth the reduced chance of drawing a land. (However, fetches are often used for other reasons such as grim lavamancer or with Brainstorm)
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Fair/creature decks dont really benefit from probe due to the added importance of the life difference. These decks dont win in a single turn, often having to grind their opponents down turn after turn while taking damage.
The information you gain from looking at an opponent's hand is not as important as the information you can lose about your own hand by playing Gitaxian Probe in a deck "just because."
Do I think it's underplayed? Yes. Do I think it's an auto-include in every deck? Absolutely not.
Standard: I, for one, welcome our new rhinoceros overlords
Modern: Pod's dead, Bob's back.
Legacy: Lands, Deathblade, Death and Taxes, Elves, MUD
Retired Legacy: Merfolk, Goblins, Jund, Delver, Reanimator
Is that card Young Pyromancer? If so snap keep.
Of course... and draw Force of Will x 2/Brainstorm/Stifle off the 4 probes amirite?
But seriously, probe is risking that unknown draw with your opening hands.
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IDK is one of the lands an island? Also after the first one Probes do not do a whole lot.
Alternatively, for readers who aren't used to Legacy, here's another way to look at it: If you have two scrylands in Standard and a bunch of spells that cost 3+, do you mulligan that hand? Sure, you could scry into what you want... or you could brick. It's not quite the same concept, but in the end it's still something that makes mulligan decisions more difficult because you have to evaluate more unknowns. When I play ANT, I'm always happy to see a Probe in my opening hand. I'm less than enthused to see multiple.