I've been keeping tabs lately on my W/L ratio, amongst other stats (such as dice rolls to see who goes first, outs drawn by opponents, etc).
I'm on a statistically improbable streak of horrid luck. Been running around with the big 4 decks in standard. 100 games each.
Couple of tidbits...
I've won 17% of the games I played. That's piloting one of the big 4, keep in mind.
I lose the roll to see who goes first 89% of the time.
Pick up 4-7 land initial hands, 69% of the time.
The MBD I played, drew a Thoughtseize in the inital hand, 9% of the time. Gary/Whip? Didn't happen. 100 games, not once did they pop up together.
With the U/W/x control deck, I played a D.Sphere 42% of the games I played. Couldn't draw them. Just weren't there.
R/G? Mystic showed up in my starting hand 25% of the time.
The most comedic parts were the outs. When my opponent needed an out to win the game? They got it 51% of the time.
I'm of the firm belief I've a bad luck Aura. It's prolific. Never seen anything like it.
Ever have a bad run? It's hilarious to watch.
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Vintage. That's about it. Maybe Standard, if it could get it together into something interesting enough to play.
To me, most of those stats look like normal variation to the randomization of the deck. That is just the luck factor of the game. Yes, poor luck can make you lose the game more often than not, but I've seen people pull out of some pretty sticky situations where they should have lost due to luck. So without actually seeing your games and knowing your play skill and style, it is hard to tell whether your loses are a matter of luck or skill. I am assuming your playing online with that sample size, so good look and keep on trying! Your W/L ratio should even out eventually.
I am assuming your playing online with that sample size...
Yeah just on Cockatrice. Which I guess means some of the decks could be scamming the system, but I'm doubtful. Weirdest thing I've seen in 16 years of playing the game.
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Vintage. That's about it. Maybe Standard, if it could get it together into something interesting enough to play.
I've been keeping tabs lately on my W/L ratio, amongst other stats (such as dice rolls to see who goes first, outs drawn by opponents, etc).
I'm on a statistically improbable streak of horrid luck. Been running around with the big 4 decks in standard. 100 games each.
Couple of tidbits...
I've won 17% of the games I played. That's piloting one of the big 4, keep in mind.
I lose the roll to see who goes first 89% of the time.
Pick up 4-7 land initial hands, 69% of the time.
The MBD I played, drew a Thoughtseize in the inital hand, 9% of the time. Gary/Whip? Didn't happen. 100 games, not once did they pop up together.
With the U/W/x control deck, I played a D.Sphere 42% of the games I played. Couldn't draw them. Just weren't there.
R/G? Mystic showed up in my starting hand 25% of the time.
The most comedic parts were the outs. When my opponent needed an out to win the game? They got it 51% of the time.
I'm of the firm belief I've a bad luck Aura. It's prolific. Never seen anything like it.
Ever have a bad run? It's hilarious to watch.
Some of those stats I would consider good luck compared to mine. I run a 27 land Esper deck and would love an opening hand of 4 land and 5 land is nice as well! I probably have 30% of my opening hands mulligan for 0,1 or 2 land and another 10% for color screw. Mulligans 40% of your opening hands are pretty miserable.
I have the run goods and run bads before. Have mad my online limited rating drop from its norm of about 1800 to low 1600s on a few occassions. OF course the run goods happen as well. I went an entire summer of paper magic losing like 5 matches and got up to top 100 in the world in limited rating.
In my experience though, you remember the run bads as getting unlucky, and feel like you just played well when you run good and run off like an 80% win percentage on MTGO for a while.
Those metrics remind me of attempting to play test on apprentice. The shuffler hated me every so often, and my hands would just be unexplainably awful.
However, all people have their "bad" streaks. Even Pro players do, although I don't know if it would get as bad as what you just described. When ELO ratings were available, I went from 1890 to 1695 at one time just during Rise of the Eldrazi Limited format. It didn't help that I wasn't too good at it and it was completely different than Zendikar and Worldwake, but I did have some poor luck to amazing Limited all stars. A player at my LGS who plays online a bunch (mostly Limited) said that he watched his rating go from 1990ish to 1600ish (I can't remember exactly what it was, but I remember it was in the 1600s) in Limited. I think if that happened to me, I'd be seriously tempted to quit because even my poor streaks have always had me contemplating quitting. Just wait; another format may be better for you. Many players are having trouble with this Standard (I have moved on to Modern) while many newer players are having a great deal of success. I see it all the time on PW points.com when I see different players having Seasonal points all the time.
Since your die rolls are at least 10% worse than mine, I will give anyone here on MTGS to tell me to shut up if I complain about this anymore. The same goes in real life.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I feel your pain. I'm about a month into a really bad run. It's the first time since I've started playing 3 years ago where I feel like I'm going backwards, in all formats I play (limited, legacy, and modern). I've tried to mix up a few different routines to try and break it. Just this past Friday though, I borrowed a friends deck and actually won a standard FNM so I hope it's the start of a turnaround lol.
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I'm on a statistically improbable streak of horrid luck. Been running around with the big 4 decks in standard. 100 games each.
Couple of tidbits...
I've won 17% of the games I played. That's piloting one of the big 4, keep in mind.
I lose the roll to see who goes first 89% of the time.
Pick up 4-7 land initial hands, 69% of the time.
The MBD I played, drew a Thoughtseize in the inital hand, 9% of the time. Gary/Whip? Didn't happen. 100 games, not once did they pop up together.
With the U/W/x control deck, I played a D.Sphere 42% of the games I played. Couldn't draw them. Just weren't there.
R/G? Mystic showed up in my starting hand 25% of the time.
The most comedic parts were the outs. When my opponent needed an out to win the game? They got it 51% of the time.
I'm of the firm belief I've a bad luck Aura. It's prolific. Never seen anything like it.
Ever have a bad run? It's hilarious to watch.
Then, consecutive losses to various 1600 players resulted in dropping to 1650 in a three month period.
Unfortunately, its kinda hard to explain just how bad a run that was these days.
"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn
Yeah just on Cockatrice. Which I guess means some of the decks could be scamming the system, but I'm doubtful. Weirdest thing I've seen in 16 years of playing the game.
Some of those stats I would consider good luck compared to mine. I run a 27 land Esper deck and would love an opening hand of 4 land and 5 land is nice as well! I probably have 30% of my opening hands mulligan for 0,1 or 2 land and another 10% for color screw. Mulligans 40% of your opening hands are pretty miserable.
In my experience though, you remember the run bads as getting unlucky, and feel like you just played well when you run good and run off like an 80% win percentage on MTGO for a while.
Big Thanks to Xeno for sig art <3.
However, all people have their "bad" streaks. Even Pro players do, although I don't know if it would get as bad as what you just described. When ELO ratings were available, I went from 1890 to 1695 at one time just during Rise of the Eldrazi Limited format. It didn't help that I wasn't too good at it and it was completely different than Zendikar and Worldwake, but I did have some poor luck to amazing Limited all stars. A player at my LGS who plays online a bunch (mostly Limited) said that he watched his rating go from 1990ish to 1600ish (I can't remember exactly what it was, but I remember it was in the 1600s) in Limited. I think if that happened to me, I'd be seriously tempted to quit because even my poor streaks have always had me contemplating quitting. Just wait; another format may be better for you. Many players are having trouble with this Standard (I have moved on to Modern) while many newer players are having a great deal of success. I see it all the time on PW points.com when I see different players having Seasonal points all the time.
Since your die rolls are at least 10% worse than mine, I will give anyone here on MTGS to tell me to shut up if I complain about this anymore. The same goes in real life.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)