A friend of mine is telling me he isnt going to open his MM packs because he thinks a box will go for 1500 in a years time. I honestly dont believe this because 3K is only worth 3 grand now for a box and thats 14 years later. Anyone have any idea what they may go for in a years time?
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But...buying and holding boxes as a LONG term investment is probably a fine idea, assuming you have the spare capital. I mean 1K invested in MM boxes is probably likely to yield a better return than 1K in the stock market over the next 10 years.
But...buying and holding boxes as a LONG term investment is probably a fine idea, assuming you have the spare capital. I mean 1K invested in MM boxes is probably likely to yield a better return than 1K in the stock market over the next 10 years.
Actually, that's not such a bad idea. If you did have, say, $10,000 laying around and could use it to buy 33 boxes, then sitting on them for 10 years might yield a return of $10,000 in pure profits. Of course there's also the overhead of maintaining their condition for that long, and eventually finding buyers who are willing to pay $600+ for a box of cards that are really just reprints, and could even be reprinted time and time again. And don't even get my started on finding 33 boxes in the first place for $300.
Actually, the more I say it outloud, the less these boxes even seem worth it in the first place. I mean, you'd have to hope that Bob reaches $200 in 10 years, and Goyfs are sitting pretty at $300 just to consider it. There is a lot of valuable cards in these sets, but the mythics are ~2 per box, with 1/3 being worthless, 1/3 being meh, and 1/3 being amazing.
Plains - John Avon - 230
Island - Jung Park - 235
Island - Vincent Proce - 237
Swamp - John Avon - 238
Mountain - John Avon - 242
Forest - John Avon - 246
Actually, that's not such a bad idea. If you did have, say, $10,000 laying around and could use it to buy 33 boxes, then sitting on them for 10 years might yield a return of $10,000 in pure profits. Of course there's also the overhead of maintaining their condition for that long, and eventually finding buyers who are willing to pay $600+ for a box of cards that are really just reprints, and could even be reprinted time and time again. And don't even get my started on finding 33 boxes in the first place for $300.
Actually, the more I say it outloud, the less these boxes even seem worth it in the first place. I mean, you'd have to hope that Bob reaches $200 in 10 years, and Goyfs are sitting pretty at $300 just to consider it. There is a lot of valuable cards in these sets, but the mythics are ~2 per box, with 1/3 being worthless, 1/3 being meh, and 1/3 being amazing.
With sealed boxes the considerations you bring up in your second paragraph don't seem to matter that much to people. They certainly aren't priced/purchased based on the EV of the cards inside, at least not these days.
But this line would be my main concern if I was looking at this as a legit investment strategy: "and could even be reprinted time and time again"
Every time WotC decides to reprint these guys your ev goes down, and we have no way of knowing how often they will do that.
If anything it might be worth close to 300$ in a year or two, but not 1500$. Statistically sealed boosters are ALWAYS worth more than the contents of them. Crack packs because you enjoy paying more for random cards than specific singles, or because you are using them for limited.
Dont ever expect to get more money in card value, than you paid for the sealed product. It can happen if you get lucky, but the odds are against you.
A decent investment to me would be maybe buying 100 Deathrite Shaman. That card is pretty sure to go up in value at least somewhat and has a very unlikely chance of being reprinted (would be pretty broken).
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Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I agree, if investing is your game I'd buy cards, not sealed product. Smaller, easier to store and maintain, easier to find buyers for down the road, and you have a better understanding of just what you've invested in. I wouldn't buy just 100 deathrite shaman though. Just like with regular investments, I'd diversify. Look for staples that are likely to be in demand for a while and unlikely to be reprinted.
Shocklands aren't sacred anymore, but in the short term they're probably a good investment. Come next year their price WILL rise, so if you've got the capital lying around and can hold on to them for a 8 months, you'll probably make a profit. If you're thinking longer term, I'd look for modern staples that aren't likely to be reprinted. Deathrite is a good idea, as are a good number of planeswalkers I imagine.
The card value of the unopened packs won't be worth more than $15. And since these will be reprints, the card's values will drop. And, since we'll likely have a Modern Masters 2 within a few years, this really can't be a long term investment.
I think you have to take into account the unknowns in the next 10 years also. Although it's unlikely they could release cards that are more powerful than those in MM during that 10 years. Cards are only worth what demand for them says they are, so if the game has changed and the MM cards are no longer desirable you probably just lost money on your investment because the demand will be for the new and better not the reprints of now mediocre cards. Nobody can predict what the game will be in 10 years from now. That's why I will never understand somebody "investing" in this game that very well may not exist at some point and then your investment is worthless.
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I think you have to take into account the unknowns in the next 10 years also. Although it's unlikely they could release cards that are more powerful than those in MM during that 10 years. Cards are only worth what demand for them says they are, so if the game has changed and the MM cards are no longer desirable you probably just lost money on your investment because the demand will be for the new and better not the reprints of now mediocre cards. Nobody can predict what the game will be in 10 years from now. That's why I will never understand somebody "investing" in this game that very well may not exist at some point and then your investment is worthless.
I can predict that we won't see Counterspell, Delver, Snapcaster Mage level cards by design and as a result a lot of things are going to get better. Standard players hate dealing with things that are potentially format warping and WOTC has shown how it responds to that with how neutered modern is as a format.
Pretty solid prediction that Deathrite Shaman, Snapcaster Mage, and even cards like Delver of Secrets will go up in value as the supply starts to dissipate. Who would have guessed that some of the modern uncommon would be selling for more than a lot of rares?
I think you have to take into account the unknowns in the next 10 years also. Although it's unlikely they could release cards that are more powerful than those in MM during that 10 years. Cards are only worth what demand for them says they are, so if the game has changed and the MM cards are no longer desirable you probably just lost money on your investment because the demand will be for the new and better not the reprints of now mediocre cards. Nobody can predict what the game will be in 10 years from now. That's why I will never understand somebody "investing" in this game that very well may not exist at some point and then your investment is worthless.
Ummm...you could say the same about most investments. The stock market isn't that far from being like trading cards these days. Values aren't nearly as grounded as they used to be and are much more reliant on hype and perception than company performance.
In fact if you look at Magic cards as an investment, compared to stocks and the like, they have actually done really well (one financial article pointed out that an investment in Magic cards in the 90's would have yielded a better return than an investment in Apple).
Ummm...you could say the same about most investments. The stock market isn't that far from being like trading cards these days. Values aren't nearly as grounded as they used to be and are much more reliant on hype and perception than company performance.
In fact if you look at Magic cards as an investment, compared to stocks and the like, they have actually done really well (one financial article pointed out that an investment in Magic cards in the 90's would have yielded a better return than an investment in Apple).
There is a difference between speculation stocks which are highly risky and stocks like Walmart which aren't going to make you tons of money but will reliably return a profit. The stock market and MTG aren't comparable because billions of people have a interest in ensuring the stock market doesn't disappear and how many have a interest in MTG being around and prices stable? Private investments in things like pieces of cardboard where their whole value is based on demand is extremely volatile and risky. There's nothing to stop Wizzards from deciding tomorrow that Magic isn't financially worth the investment for them and close up shop and moving on to another project. 99.9% of the world wouldn't blink an eye.
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Ummm...you could say the same about most investments. The stock market isn't that far from being like trading cards these days. Values aren't nearly as grounded as they used to be and are much more reliant on hype and perception than company performance.
In fact if you look at Magic cards as an investment, compared to stocks and the like, they have actually done really well (one financial article pointed out that an investment in Magic cards in the 90's would have yielded a better return than an investment in Apple).
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, that's a pretty bold claim without an impossible comparative analysis. Sure, you can be pedantic, and 1 lotus @ $20 would have 50-100x value. Now, try to make millions on that, the first few will be worth $20, then they will accrue value. The other side, Apple, is just buying $x, and they gain the same percent value. Stock wins out easily vs an awful decision to invest in Magic cards.
it'll continue to go up in price, primarily because people will want to continue draft it, and I expect a vast majority of it to be opened early in it's release.
MM isnt even worth the 300$ they are selling it for... so glad i didnt buy into the hype.
I agree with you if you are buying in now. $300 is a bit steep. But if you got in at $200 and you got multiple boxes, $300 means you have free product to rip or sell for pure profit.
Most stores in my area are only going to run 3 drafts total, use 1-2 boxes for special prize support and lotto off the rest at msrp. Then it's all gone. If I'm lucky enough to acquire a box, it's going into my vault-cave next to my sealed FTV's, and duel Decks. While 1.5K seems unrealistic, sealed boxes of MM1 will rise in value, as this limited product will have next to zero shelf life.
I think it's reasonable to see a $500 price tag for a box within a years time.
Worldwake is going for $400 a box because the set contains 2 Legacy staples. This set has 10+ Legacy staples, and 24 foils per box, and it's going to sell out in about 5 minutes after it's released.
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No.
But...buying and holding boxes as a LONG term investment is probably a fine idea, assuming you have the spare capital. I mean 1K invested in MM boxes is probably likely to yield a better return than 1K in the stock market over the next 10 years.
Actually, that's not such a bad idea. If you did have, say, $10,000 laying around and could use it to buy 33 boxes, then sitting on them for 10 years might yield a return of $10,000 in pure profits. Of course there's also the overhead of maintaining their condition for that long, and eventually finding buyers who are willing to pay $600+ for a box of cards that are really just reprints, and could even be reprinted time and time again. And don't even get my started on finding 33 boxes in the first place for $300.
Actually, the more I say it outloud, the less these boxes even seem worth it in the first place. I mean, you'd have to hope that Bob reaches $200 in 10 years, and Goyfs are sitting pretty at $300 just to consider it. There is a lot of valuable cards in these sets, but the mythics are ~2 per box, with 1/3 being worthless, 1/3 being meh, and 1/3 being amazing.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=4832736
Trading 10 full art zen basics for 8 of yours!
I want
Plains - John Avon - 230
Island - Jung Park - 235
Island - Vincent Proce - 237
Swamp - John Avon - 238
Mountain - John Avon - 242
Forest - John Avon - 246
With sealed boxes the considerations you bring up in your second paragraph don't seem to matter that much to people. They certainly aren't priced/purchased based on the EV of the cards inside, at least not these days.
But this line would be my main concern if I was looking at this as a legit investment strategy: "and could even be reprinted time and time again"
Every time WotC decides to reprint these guys your ev goes down, and we have no way of knowing how often they will do that.
Depends on how they do MMII. If MMII is M10 till now and they dont touch those cards in MMI the first boxes wont drop.
At the OP, $1500 in a year is a bit extreme. I could see $500ish. It really depends on how MMI effects the player base.
Dont ever expect to get more money in card value, than you paid for the sealed product. It can happen if you get lucky, but the odds are against you.
When I was 12 an alpha lotus was $500, today it's $3000+ and sees far, far less play, because 10 years ago people actually played vintage.
Why buy a box, that's hard to sell, that you don't what's in it.
Basically, why take a risk when you can buy a solid investment?
Maybe instead of buying a box, you buy 20 shocklands that will be 20 dollars a year from now.
That's a good point. When I played in 1995, Mishra's Workshop was $5 and The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale was a bulk rare.
A decent investment to me would be maybe buying 100 Deathrite Shaman. That card is pretty sure to go up in value at least somewhat and has a very unlikely chance of being reprinted (would be pretty broken).
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Shocklands aren't sacred anymore, but in the short term they're probably a good investment. Come next year their price WILL rise, so if you've got the capital lying around and can hold on to them for a 8 months, you'll probably make a profit. If you're thinking longer term, I'd look for modern staples that aren't likely to be reprinted. Deathrite is a good idea, as are a good number of planeswalkers I imagine.
You can find me on MTGO. My username is gereffi.
No booster box is ever worth as much as the average price of the rares inside.
You can find me on MTGO. My username is gereffi.
Modern
xWBreakfast at Urza'sxW
UWGBantUWG
GWRNaya ZooRWG
I can predict that we won't see Counterspell, Delver, Snapcaster Mage level cards by design and as a result a lot of things are going to get better. Standard players hate dealing with things that are potentially format warping and WOTC has shown how it responds to that with how neutered modern is as a format.
Pretty solid prediction that Deathrite Shaman, Snapcaster Mage, and even cards like Delver of Secrets will go up in value as the supply starts to dissipate. Who would have guessed that some of the modern uncommon would be selling for more than a lot of rares?
Ummm...you could say the same about most investments. The stock market isn't that far from being like trading cards these days. Values aren't nearly as grounded as they used to be and are much more reliant on hype and perception than company performance.
In fact if you look at Magic cards as an investment, compared to stocks and the like, they have actually done really well (one financial article pointed out that an investment in Magic cards in the 90's would have yielded a better return than an investment in Apple).
There is a difference between speculation stocks which are highly risky and stocks like Walmart which aren't going to make you tons of money but will reliably return a profit. The stock market and MTG aren't comparable because billions of people have a interest in ensuring the stock market doesn't disappear and how many have a interest in MTG being around and prices stable? Private investments in things like pieces of cardboard where their whole value is based on demand is extremely volatile and risky. There's nothing to stop Wizzards from deciding tomorrow that Magic isn't financially worth the investment for them and close up shop and moving on to another project. 99.9% of the world wouldn't blink an eye.
Modern
xWBreakfast at Urza'sxW
UWGBantUWG
GWRNaya ZooRWG
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, that's a pretty bold claim without an impossible comparative analysis. Sure, you can be pedantic, and 1 lotus @ $20 would have 50-100x value. Now, try to make millions on that, the first few will be worth $20, then they will accrue value. The other side, Apple, is just buying $x, and they gain the same percent value. Stock wins out easily vs an awful decision to invest in Magic cards.
Rules Advisor: 9/5/11
Old, sparsely updated because of above: Trade with me!
Weirdly, standard has been BAD since JTMS was banned, it hasn't been fun, nor healthy since.
But 1500? No way, Jose! Not happening.
I agree with you if you are buying in now. $300 is a bit steep. But if you got in at $200 and you got multiple boxes, $300 means you have free product to rip or sell for pure profit.
Worldwake is going for $400 a box because the set contains 2 Legacy staples. This set has 10+ Legacy staples, and 24 foils per box, and it's going to sell out in about 5 minutes after it's released.