Understand, Dredge is not really a Magic: The Gathering deck. When a card is playable in it, it doesn't mean it's a tournament playable card. It means it's playable in whatever crazy fantasy world that Dredge operates in.
For a 60 card deck, approximately 44.48%. I just found that online, too lazy to do the math for the specifics.
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IIW for any CCC (pick the highest one in the list):
A high-costed equipment (I want it big, but make sure it isn't nutso-broken with Stoneforge. So a high equip cost or a benefit for casting or something)
A Squirrel Wizard
A G?? (1-3 colors, including green) legendary creature with its main strat based on not attacking
This is a hypergeometric distribution. Your odds of getting at least 1 copy of a 4-of in a 60 card deck on turn 1 or 2, assuming you go first, is around 44%. If you bump your deck size up to 65 your chances drop to about 42%. 70 cards = 39%.
The only time I go above 60 is if I'm playing a toolbox deck where one extra card would offer an additional out (I played Enlightened Tutor control for quite some time and was able to get away with 61). Otherwise I always go with 60.
60 just about always. As said, maybe 61 in a toolbox deck (a deck with tutors to get things that you want, so you have a lot of options), but even that's a stretch. It's all about consistency.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
IIW for any CCC (pick the highest one in the list):
A high-costed equipment (I want it big, but make sure it isn't nutso-broken with Stoneforge. So a high equip cost or a benefit for casting or something)
A Squirrel Wizard
A G?? (1-3 colors, including green) legendary creature with its main strat based on not attacking
The other frequently cited case where 61 can be beneficial is when it involves adding an extra land to get the "perfect" mana ratio. Situations like that only become apparent after extensive play testing, though. In the vast majority of cases (particularly in constructed), the smallest deck size that's legal is the best size.
If I have 65 cards in my deck what are the odds I get the 1 card I love on turn 1 or 2. I have 4 of the cards of love in the deck
what is it for 60 and 70 card odds!!
I don't know what it is, but I know it's not this.
100+%?
That can't be right
Modern:
Something new every week
Legacy:
Something new everyweek
A Squirrel Wizard
A G?? (1-3 colors, including green) legendary creature with its main strat based on not attacking
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
1 - Πi=0 -> n-1( (D-i-C)/(D-i) )
It goes up to 42% on your second turn (since you've now drawn 8 cards).
Your chances for having the card by turn 2 only increase to 44.5% if you cut your deck down to 60 cards.
And they drop to 39% if you bump your deck up to 70 cards.
GModern Belcher
GGreen Deck Wins
3I'm the King
RBlazeTron
I believe most people prefer to stick to 60 cards (or close to 60)
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Have any questions or concerns? Come take a dip in my pool.
If you want a specific card or combination of cards to show up, 60 is certainly the best.
GModern Belcher
GGreen Deck Wins
3I'm the King
RBlazeTron
A Squirrel Wizard
A G?? (1-3 colors, including green) legendary creature with its main strat based on not attacking
Currently playing
Modern:UWRSplinter TwinUWR
EDH:
URMelek, Izzet ParagonUR
BWGGhave, Guuru of sporesBWG
Good thing I have book burning.
that's really ironic, since your post is so very vague