Chances of mythics in fat packs?

  • #1
    What's the average chance of getting a mythic in a fat pack? Also, what's the normal amount of mythics one could possibly get from a fat pack?
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  • #2
    Quote from Xoma
    What's the average chance of getting a mythic in a fat pack? Also, what's the normal amount of mythics one could possibly get from a fat pack?


    It's supposed to be 1 out of 8, but lately with the WWK and RoE pax, some have been getting as many as 4 out of them. It's wierd
  • #3
    It's a bit of selection bias, there. People who open 4 Mythics are way more likely to brag than the guy who opened one Lord of Shatterskull Pass.
  • #4
    In a large test sample (larger than a few fat packs), it really does even out to 1/8.
    /thread
  • #5
    My brother got 1, I got 2. You should be garunteed 1.
  • #6
    You are not strictly speaking guaranteed 1. With 8 boosters to a fat pack, there's about a 34% chance of getting no mythics.

    Edited to add: If you want detailed percentages, here's some rounded to two significant digits:
    Chance of 0: 34%
    Chance of 1: 39%
    Chance of 2: 20%
    Chance of 3: 5.6%
    Chance of 4: 1.0%
    Chance of 5: 0.11%
    Chance of 6: 0.0081%
    Chance of 7: 0.00033%
    Chance of 8: 0.000006%
    (total: ~100%)

    Edited to add: Note that this does not include the possibility of getting a foil mythic.
    Last edited by Archonoid: 4/27/2010 8:14:40 PM
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  • #7
    In a given booster pack the mythic rare will replace the rare one eighth of the time. Note that this does not factor in premium (foil) cards, meaning that the odds are ever so slightly better than 1/8.

    You are NOT guaranteed to get a mythic rare in a fat pack based on these statistics, unless WotC have specifically designed the packs as such to encourage buyers or something.
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  • #8
    I've never seen a fat pack in the Zendikar block that didn't have at least one mythic in it. The odds are actually as advertised in fat packs for mythic rares. On average, you'll find about 1 mythic in the 8 packs. It's not uncommon to get 2 though. If you really want mythics, I'd say fat packs are a decent way to get them. Better than buying 8 loose packs, anyways.


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  • #9
    I've had two in every set since Alara Reborn, but I'm obviously an outlier. The majority of the time you'll likely see one, with another decent chunk having none. I've never heard of anyone having more than 3, and I've only heard three maybe twice.
  • #10
    In worldwake I got 1 mythic and 2 mythics out of my 2 Fat packs.
    So 3/16 as well

    In Rise of the Eldrazi I got 0 mythics Mad and 3 mythics out of my 2 fat packs
    So 3/16 as well

    But hey, these small numbers don't say a lot. I guess 1/8 or 2/8 are the standards
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  • #11
    It's supposed to be 1 out of 8, but lately with the WWK and RoE pax, some have been getting as many as 4 out of them. It's wierd


    i bought 4 boosters and i got a mythic out of each of them

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  • #12
    I pulled three mythics in my Alara Reborn fat pack, one in M10, one in the first Zendikar fat pack I opened, and two in the second one. Obviously it's not a guarantee to get a mythic, but the odds aren't too bad. The part I hate is seeing two lonely fat packs sitting on a shelf and deciding which one to buy, then second guessing myself and wondering what was in the other one. I guess that's part of the allure of cracking open packs.
  • #13
    On Friday, I saw 16 ROE fat packs opened (my LGS ownere was somewhat happy). 13 of them had 3 or more Mythics in them. I can honestly say that I've never had less than 2 mythics from a fat pack... good mythics on the other hand...
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  • #14
    I think this has been sufficiently answered. We don't need to hear everyone's stories about how many mythics they opened in their fat packs. The accepted ratio is 1:8.
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