I haven't replaced into a game in a long time. I think we might be talking 2013ish.
Unless I'm forgetting something recent. If anyone knows let don't be shy.
Haven't liked any of D_V's posts today at all, the push on Vaimes and the speed that he was willing to compromise onto Iso doesn't read genuine. The fact that there's zero real reads from him based on anything that happened yesterday is hugely problematic and his comment re; his stance on X=Y is something that makes a lot of sense from mafia.
Oh for the record I would have lynched Iso yesterday too.
I'll post later about why I think vaimes is scum but basically it comes from the attitude of the last couple of posts. It's pretty scummy IMO.
Oh calm your tits Reginold. I've been at work all day too. I'm building a pseudo-catchup post/wagon analysis.
I'm not that old! I'm only 94, 3 years younger than Tammy. But that's fine, I'm happy to wait; just want to see your slot actually contribute seen I can very plausibly see it as scum.
@Tom - I don't disagree with Grapes being a bad shot (Certainly wasn't the worst though), I also don't disagree with it possibly being a gambit that Isos running here (Like I said it's one I've run in the past) and very much do want an explanation from him re; the target but I think getting caught up with the "No vig would make that shot" element is a really bad idea, especially this early on into the game and after seeing Fonti do it last game; there's enough that points towards him being legitimate to at least focus elsewhere today, finding out more about the setup later effectively confirms him as town or mafia. Think DV's vote looked bad regardless of anyone elses alignment. Iso/Pozzai/Ophi was one of many wack scum teams I came out of last night with, don't think it's likely anymore.
@DV - Don't worry about the 2013 game, too old to be that relevant. If anything comes to mind more recent let me know. My issue is that your reads look solely based around D2 posts ignoring the plethora of information that D1 consists of, your post re; voting Iso yesterday read as a joke one so you attempting to claim it was more than that now isn't great and your push on Vaimes looks super shallow here. You stated you were happy with the X=Y lynch because of information provided; what information did that flip and yesterdays play provide you with? Pretty much I want to see some genuine thought process from you, plz?
Oh calm your tits Reginold. I've been at work all day too. I'm building a pseudo-catchup post/wagon analysis.
I'm not that old! I'm only 94, 3 years younger than Tammy. But that's fine, I'm happy to wait; just want to see your slot actually contribute seen I can very plausibly see it as scum.
@Tom - I don't disagree with Grapes being a bad shot (Certainly wasn't the worst though), I also don't disagree with it possibly being a gambit that Isos running here (Like I said it's one I've run in the past) and very much do want an explanation from him re; the target but I think getting caught up with the "No vig would make that shot" element is a really bad idea, especially this early on into the game and after seeing Fonti do it last game; there's enough that points towards him being legitimate to at least focus elsewhere today, finding out more about the setup later effectively confirms him as town or mafia. Think DV's vote looked bad regardless of anyone elses alignment. Iso/Pozzai/Ophi was one of many wack scum teams I came out of last night with, don't think it's likely anymore.
Dude you haven't played mafia until you've thought I was scum. It's orgasmic.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
My reads as of now:
(I actually only really read the first 200 posts, then decided to jump to wagon analysis since I didn't think I'd finish the full thread before Day start. I'm gonna be continuing rereading as we go though.
1. Vaimes-Lean scum. He's been giving me lots of language pings. I don't remember him doing this in that other game we played together. I do remember us arguing a bunch though, so maybe that was why? Anywho, here's his post 40 with some thoughts.
Nacho asked me what kind of answer I was expecting. And the answer to that is an explanation that doesn't have to be dragged out of you, to see what you're willing answer on your own, without me having to hold your hand. I'm very curious as to what finally inspired you to type like a grownup and not clown around. Frankly, it's weirding me out, and it makes me wonder why Nacho is completely ignoring it.
And I'm also curious as to why you expect me to answer your questions when you don't even acknowlesge mine. I don't ask them for kicks.
You asking me things about Nacho that kind of imply you /think/ I should be suspicious of him when I'm already voting for him also kind of pinged negatively. Can't really explain it, and it probably doesn't mean anything right now.
I want Ophidia's reasons for highlighting me in particular out of a category containing three other people (those he's familiar with). Because if he's going to vote for a familiar face, why mine specifically? What separates me from tom and Iso in his mind? Is what I'm looking for.
I'm also kind of already disappointed in this game. I was expecting a more fun RVS, but all the cool people have yet to show up.
Anything else you want me to do for you that you aren't willing to do in return?
This post though.
He opens the post with a very aggressive @tom for not answering his "you're using capital letters?" question, which is weird because the question seems rhetorical in light of the fact that it's not immediately obvious that he's actually refering to tom being serious this game. I think most people would assume it rhetorical since it's obvious that he is, in fact, using capital letters.
He's weirded out that tom's being serious (which is fine, tom's a weirdo), but then he wonders why Nacho isn't freaking out as well. It's kinda throwing shade at Nacho for "completely ignoring it" which itself is loaded language. He seems to think Nacho SHOULD be questioning it, maybe even suspicious of it. I'm not sure even tom being serious merits sounding the riot alarm over 40 posts in.
Third line has him reiterating that tom is ignoring him and positing that tom should stop asking him questions and start answering them, basically.
Fourth dislikes that tom is asking things about Nacho (implying that Vaimes should be suspicious of Nacho) when Vaimes is already voting for Nacho. Problem I have with it is that his Nacho vote came during a time that's usually RVS with no qualifier for it being serious. I certainly didn't know it was serious till now, and would be surprised if tom did too.
re: Ophidia's vote on him... I obviousy can't speak for my predecessor as to why she (he?) voted for him over the others, but again, it looked like an RVS vote. It felt to me like a "Oh, people I know are in this game. I'm gonna randomly vote one of them." And Vaimes immediate jump on that seems really defensive for little reason.
The next to last line is weird also because up until that point, I'd figured this post from Vaimes to be a generally emotional one.Like he was just mad. But this line, both in substance and with the addition of the smiley at the end make it feel... less so. Like this wasn't just a ragepost.
Last line was snarky. Fine.
So, overall, this is a weird post for me. It seems... unnaturally angry at tom for not doing stuff that tom should have not necessarily been automatically doing. The question he asked tom "Are you using capital letters?" was unclear, and myself and Nacho interpretted it the same way: that he was sarcastically asking NACHO why he was mimicing the mod (in a "really? We're doing that? Really?" kinda way) and not a question to tom about his taking the game seriously. Also the little slight at Nacho for ignoring it is weird, especially considering he slams tom for implying that he might be suspicious of Nacho when it wasn't necessarily clear that was happening. And the defensiveness over the one vote is obviously weird too, as well as the abrupt change in tone followed by the change back with the snark.
Does Vaimes usually do this? I don't remember Vaimes being this all over the place in the other game we played together. 2. tomsloger-Null. Tom is being tom. He'll be easier for me to PoE later than try to determine alignment D1. 3. Iso-scum. Actually ISO'd him because his play in the part I'd read was thoroughly unimpressive (faking not knowing how many scum there are in a basic? Come on now.)Rest isn't much better. His claim of Vig really makes me not like him though. I'll go into that in my next post.
4. Grapefruit21 (mentor: Anaklusmos)-Strong town. Specifically strong newbie town for 82, because most scum, especially less experienced ones don't question other people's townreads on them. (Now dead town tracker) 5. D_V (r. Typhrous)- Null. Typh didn't leave much of an impression. 6. DelphiBlue (mentor: Proph)-Null only because I remember thinking she might be town but I can't remember why. Or maybe a very light lean town. 7. Pozzai-Null. His spammy posts haven't swayed me one way or the other.
8. Newcomb-Null. I found myself grazing past his posts for some reason. It was weird. 10. Regfan-Town. I found myself liking most of the posts that I read. The posts where he linked a buch of posts in them seemed well thought out and rational.
12. Nachomamma8-I want him to be town, but I remember him being different in Mindscrew. He was having fun, but he also did things, and his early posts show only fun. Although I was too focused on being scum to notice too much about his playstyle so take that with a grain of salt.
For clarity: Town:
Regfan
Delphi (light lean)
Nacho? Null:
Tom
Pozz
Newcomb Scum:
Iso
Vaimes (leaning)
Now, the Xeq wagon.
Quote from Iso »
Vote xequalsy
I will not be moving my vote for the rest of the Day.
Part of my read on X=Y here stemmed from the way he approached my opening post. Literally everyone else ignored it, and his response was basically, "Plan on providing any content, CC? /loran" I made the post to see if anybody called me out on not saying anything, and from my general experience, I find that the people that tend to do that are more often scum looking like they have something to say than not.
With regards to #226:
X=Y specifically asked about two people that were not him that I listed as scum, which felt like he wanted me to elaborate on the other two reads, as well, but like he was too afraid of looking self-conscious to actually ask about my read on him. He manages to discredit said reads in the same breath. He also brings up Ophidia out of the blue and hard-defends him, there, for things that are more likely to come from scum than town but pretending that isn't the case. Additionally, he refers to Typhrous's actions as "interesting", and his vote on me was absolute garbage - of all the people he can think to vote at that point, he chooses to vote me to explain my reads, rather than asking me and voting for scum? Did he think he was going to be pressuring me? How does that make sense for a vote, contextually? One thing I notice scum often do is vote for things that they shouldn't be voting for. It's actually one of Void's biggest scumtells - he'll ask a question or say something that looks like he's scumhunting but then he'll vote off of it and it will completely have the wrong tone for the situation. That's exactly what X=Y's vote felt like, here. (And if we wanna get really anal about it, it's also a vote that lacks fire, as he votes me, tells me to explain my reads...and then tacks on a "please".)
Hopefully that answers your questions.
Iso's vote is not a great one. Iso votes him for his response to Iso's opening post "hi", then he kinda leaves his vote on him the entire day. xeq's response was "thoughts?".
IDK if Iso's correct that that specific response is a scum thing to do. I'd have to see evidence of it. Just from a theoretical standpoint it seems more null than anything. It could easily be a townie saying "I know nothing about your slot. Give me something" as it is scum looking busy, which I don't actually personally think is a scumtell.
I think Delphi is tunnelling. There's evidence of confbiasing, plus she's said that it's been "literally years since she's felt someone was this scummy" or something. Not the best reason but not a scummy one.
Alright. I have finally overcome both my emotional and literal hangover from the Superbowl (I should have I was going to jinx myself posting sad Brady), so lets talk mafia.
Vote: xequalsy
It's a bit of an activity tell in that I think scum are more likely than town to lurk in this playerlist (yes, I know I was away for a day, do as I say not as I do, etc.), but.
It's not just an activity tell.
Lets talk about 9. So you came into the game, didn't vote with your first post, and then blank voted me with your second post. What's the thought process there? Specifically, why vote there if you didn't with your first vote, and why me of your 12 options? What were you looking for with your questions to Grapefruit? Can you run me through the mindset in which you made 89?
As a reason I like it, but I don't like that he left the vote for 400 posts.
Mentioned this before, but this post still feels very much like scum playing the "I'm reasonable" card placing himself between two town without really going anywhere with it. Like the scum mindset here is that you feel like you get some points for being correct. Feel pretty strongly that if Xequalsy is a wolf here it's nearly clearing for both Grapefruit AND tom.
...
Again, both the major points here - the explanation of the naked vote, and the drive to understand Grapefruit's understanding of the strength of the townreads on him - are just... floaty. Like, not only is there no follow through where he goes, "and therefore I think player X is more likely to be [town/mafia], there's no real hint in those two points that you even really /could/ get something like that out of it, making those prods look exceedingly empty.
Subsequent posts...
...
... kind of run along the same lines.
Basically xequalsy seems very much like he's kind of on the sidelines, not solving, pushing back against some reads and trying to look reasonable, but the inquisitiveness is pretty surface level. Moderate scumread.
Vote: xequalsy
This vote is justified pretty thoroughly I think. One of the better votes on the wagon.
I agree with tom and pozzai that he sounded townie there but the early read is too strong to shake that easily. I'm happy moving him to L-2.
This is Grape's third vote onto this wagon. His first was terrible (just sheeped everyone else) but this is the third and it reinforces my townread on him. Scum typically don't hop on and off a townie wagon so brazenly.He unvotes again later (then apperently revotes), but this is something I wanted to address.
Kinda think Newcomb's "here are lots of reasons why we're about to mislynch, but let's do it anyways" is super lazy, but realistically, I don't see us lynching anyone else.
I don't really see any compelling reason to fight this one. Lez go day 2.
I know I included Typh's vote too but still. I don't like the language "no compelling reason to fight this" but he was town so I guess it's fine? Apathy in the end.
Summary of wagon: Iso looks worst. I think it's probable that one of the apathy votes is also scum, but that's not a for sure thing... just a feeling.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Iso How come lynching X=Y was so important to you when you'd always be able to shoot him? What information had you considered each of his flips to give you?
@Vaimes I take it you know Iso best in this thread, is this, dare I say almost Fontiesque? Way of considering his own reads so superior to everyone elses that he'd happily take out someone widely townread, rather than focussing on people that are in most people's poes ?
Alright. I have finally overcome both my emotional and literal hangover from the Superbowl (I should have I was going to jinx myself posting sad Brady), so lets talk mafia.
Vote: xequalsy
It's a bit of an activity tell in that I think scum are more likely than town to lurk in this playerlist (yes, I know I was away for a day, do as I say not as I do, etc.), but.
It's not just an activity tell.
Lets talk about 9. So you came into the game, didn't vote with your first post, and then blank voted me with your second post. What's the thought process there? Specifically, why vote there if you didn't with your first vote, and why me of your 12 options? What were you looking for with your questions to Grapefruit? Can you run me through the mindset in which you made 89?
It's not impossible that I'm being unfair here on the first bit, so I'm accepting hip checks from people (well, some of you), but Ophidia has 16 posts. Would anyone like to guess how many times s/he mentions or implies their newness and/or inexperience?
Conservatively 7. A majority of those are direct statements rather than implications.
That unsettles me a bit, as it's a thing that makes more sense coming from scum than town in a vacuum (in a vacuum meaning not under pressure).
To elaborate, I might expect to see it from town under pressure and maybe once or twice at the beginning of the game, because that makes sense. You screwed up because you didn't understand something properly? Of course you'd explain. You just want to mention it to everyone at the beginning? Yeah, sure, that's fair.
But new scum have more important reasons to make sure that /everybody/ knows that they should be considered a breed apart, namely to sort of deflect them from having to match the level of play or scrutiny of most players (an example being how his fluffiness used his meta like a spear and skewered town on it in SVM because none of us were holding him to the level of play that we were holding the rest of the game). This is especially a concern with scum having daychat for a limited time at the beginning of the game - that well of resources is getting cut off soon, and Ophidia will have to stand on his/her own (with a mentor, but even so). Establishing "I'm super new and don't know things" right at the start has potential to allow them to float along with minimal direct coaching even if there were some miscues.
So yeah, I haven't cared for that. I also agree that the entrance was awkward, although at the time I felt it was more null than anything and I'm a bit wary of letting any potential conf bias into my game here after SVM.
To me this is the absolutely worst vote on X=Y throughout the game.
I mean, look through those two cases (#209 and #211) with the eyes of town!Typhrous.
How does this overall result in an X=Y vote, the Ophidia case is much more thorough, much deeper. How come Typhrous doesn't go "whelp, maybe Ophidia would be a better vote" after writing those two, even if he wanted to vote X=Y prior to this.
This sounds more like a decent case on a scumbuddy for me, so that if an Ophidia wagon ever started they could point back and be like "yeah I called that".
It seems that most people scumread me for changing my playstyle and act defensively.
I changed my playstyle mainly because in every game prior to this game, I basically did something absurdly unreasonable for a scum and got a universal townread, and then float on top of that townread and rely on other town members, which did not really work well for me. Because many of my own scumreads are accurate, but the wagons that I follow are not. I want to get better in forum mafia, and solve this game on my own. Therefore, I rejected that strategy and try to get down on the ground and be like others and actually actively try to gain towncred and find the scum. This is why my playstyle changed so drastically from my past games.
My passiveness is mostly caused by my initial confusion about the game state. In the previous games that I played in, I organize the game into different sections, each with its own wagons and information. This is the way I understand each game of mafia. However, in the first couple of days in this game, people were doing all kinds of stuff instead of focusing on one/two topics to discuss. So I can't find a hole to poke at or something to cling onto. Also, each post is longer and takes more effort to comprehend. As the dust settles, however, I now get a clearer picture of the game and is much less confused about the game state.
Regfan,
1) In your own words what makes you think X=Y is scum other than him being passive?
X=y kinda gave up protesting his lynch up to this point. You can compare him to me, and see the difference between our posts. I tried harder to not get lynched than he did by explaining my thought process and being more open.
2) Okay so you have a null read on Pozzais posts but he's a scum read because Vaimes and myself are voting him but you're not town reading me so your reasoning behind scum reading Pozzai is SOLELY that Vaimes is scum reading him, is this correct? If so please explain how a singular town read of yours voting someone leads towards you scum reading the player especially given you've stated your playstyle change is to make your own reads.
I still believe that you are much more town than pozzai, and vaimes is a strong townread whom I also trust as a player. I want to formulate my own reads but other players will probably make better decisions than I, so in the near future, if I am the single person on a wagon, I will probably go with the popular opinion than pushing that wagon. Aside from that, Pozzai's recent posts were either fluffy or weak pokes at other players, which is quite scummy for me.
These two quotes about how he changed his game on purpose, how his scumreads are usually good, but the wagons he joins are not, only to do a 180 and be like "well I'll just jump the popular wagon if necessary afterwards, simply does not compute with me.
Outside that he initially wanted to do a reread of Regfan and myself, never comes to any conclussion of that reread, then lump us in there as scum, alongside X=Y while asking people for reasons they vote me(us) basically as Regfan touched on calling out all the 'safe' wagons of the thread.
Shortly after they answer Newcomb's question about what the chances are that Regfan and me are T/T, W/W, T/W, W/T and gives T/T 60% chance, though still doesn't vote X=Y which honestly could fit with either of us and in the world where we're both town, from his PoV ought to be nearly always mafia.
The slot screams of not wanting to be voting on a town, and I look forward to see what Killjoy comes out with later.
I feel like from what I talked about Typhrous earlier, I can see a Ophidia(Killjoy)/Typhrous(D_V)/X world, I think Regfan doesn't really fit in there due to his questioning about Ophidia's scums being 'easy' which is 'meh' and I think my Typhrous things doesn't reaaaally make sense in a scum!Typh_V, town!Ophjoy world.
Delphine is occassionally actively non-opportunistic. Like, #641. People wanted her to affirm their Pozzai notions. It would have been so easy to (shade town Pozzai / defend buddy Pozzai / whatever). There is no agenda to Delphine's posts.
Purely out of selfish reasons, do you have an example of this that does not involve me?
Ooh, that's actually a really good point re: Iso forcing the x=y wagon when he could have just shot him.
Can you talk to me a bit more about Newcomb, I can see your points, and I was weirded out by his going about reading you. I have liked a whole lot of what he's been saying outside that though, when I was rereading the game it kind of struck me how much effort he had put into some of his posts, because that is not quite like I remember him posting as town, but at the same time that's probably extremely unfair seeing as I haven't played with him for over a year.
Say Newcomb had immunity right now, whose flip and alignment of said flip would reveal most about his alignment?
Ooh, that's actually a really good point re: Iso forcing the x=y wagon when he could have just shot him.
Can you talk to me a bit more about Newcomb, I can see your points, and I was weirded out by his going about reading you. I have liked a whole lot of what he's been saying outside that though, when I was rereading the game it kind of struck me how much effort he had put into some of his posts, because that is not quite like I remember him posting as town, but at the same time that's probably extremely unfair seeing as I haven't played with him for over a year.
Say Newcomb had immunity right now, whose flip and alignment of said flip would reveal most about his alignment?
Effort is not indicative of alignment. Especially on D1; Newcomb knows how to look town at the beginning of the game as either alignment.
Probably Ophidiaslot.
I don't know exactly how many games I've played with Nacho. A bunch. We're vaguely buddies.
Ooh, that's actually a really good point re: Iso forcing the x=y wagon when he could have just shot him.
Can you talk to me a bit more about Newcomb, I can see your points, and I was weirded out by his going about reading you. I have liked a whole lot of what he's been saying outside that though, when I was rereading the game it kind of struck me how much effort he had put into some of his posts, because that is not quite like I remember him posting as town, but at the same time that's probably extremely unfair seeing as I haven't played with him for over a year.
Say Newcomb had immunity right now, whose flip and alignment of said flip would reveal most about his alignment?
Effort is not indicative of alignment. Especially on D1; Newcomb knows how to look town at the beginning of the game as either alignment.
Probably Ophidiaslot.
I don't know exactly how many games I've played with Nacho. A bunch. We're vaguely buddies.
Mhmkay. Does he usually have a strong read on you and is it akin people that I know's reads?
And I would guess you'd feel scum!Ophjoy would make you feel stronger about scum!Newcomb from what I remember of interactions? Seeing as you didn't answer that bit.
I haven't rolled scum against Newcomb in a while, so in our last several games he's pretty much always either had a genuinely strong townread on me, or was forced to because he knows getting me mislynched would look really, really bad for him.
I already felt weird about Newcomb sorta-kinda writing off Ophidia, but yeah, him flipping scum would make me want Newcomb dead even more.
I haven't rolled scum against Newcomb in a while, so in our last several games he's pretty much always either had a genuinely strong townread on me, or was forced to because he knows getting me mislynched would look really, really bad for him.
I already felt weird about Newcomb sorta-kinda writing off Ophidia, but yeah, him flipping scum would make me want Newcomb dead even more.
Sorry should've clarified, I meant Nacho in regards to the read thingie.
I haven't rolled scum against Newcomb in a while, so in our last several games he's pretty much always either had a genuinely strong townread on me, or was forced to because he knows getting me mislynched would look really, really bad for him.
I already felt weird about Newcomb sorta-kinda writing off Ophidia, but yeah, him flipping scum would make me want Newcomb dead even more.
Sorry should've clarified, I meant Nacho in regards to the read thingie.
ugh, you
Nacho and I have been on opposite teams roughly half the time, so I'm not actually sure. I wouldn't say 'strong,' but he gets me.
I haven't rolled scum against Newcomb in a while, so in our last several games he's pretty much always either had a genuinely strong townread on me, or was forced to because he knows getting me mislynched would look really, really bad for him.
I already felt weird about Newcomb sorta-kinda writing off Ophidia, but yeah, him flipping scum would make me want Newcomb dead even more.
Sorry should've clarified, I meant Nacho in regards to the read thingie.
ugh, you
Nacho and I have been on opposite teams roughly half the time, so I'm not actually sure. I wouldn't say 'strong,' but he gets me.
This is what the game looks like for me sans reads. There is most definitely going to be at least one off-wagon scum in [Regfan, Nacho, Pozzai, Ophidia]. I don't believe it's Nacho. I don't reeeally believe it's Regfan. Pozzai is iffy, but not my first choice. I think it's Ophidia.
Other people should re-state who they think is scum within that group of four and why. Unless you think that the entire scumteam is voting for x=y in this snapshot?
Really wish Iso had used his brain in addition to his vig shot, if he even is a vig, and shot Ophidia. I think I disagree with Reg that this is something scum!Iso would do, fakeclaiming Vig and all that, but it's thin, and the Day is young. He'll get sorted out if/when we massclaim.
Other people should re-state who they think is scum within that group of four and why. Unless you think that the entire scumteam is voting for x=y in this snapshot?
I think both Regfan and Ophidia fits as potential scum outside, less certain about Nacho. I agree with whoever said Nacho said a whole lot without 'saying a lot', but I kind of like his Vaimes read, and in particular a sucker for him adding the "I think Vaimes has a certain 'bite' over him" which is very much part of how I read Vaimes.
For me the 'easy' world is OphJoy/Typh_V/X, I think at the current gamestate if OphJoy is lynched today and flip scum, I'd kill Typh_V tomorrow in almost every instance.
If Regfan is lynched and flip scum, I think is dislike Tom less, but tomorrow is definitely harder to mesh together.
I think outside personal read of him, I can fit Newcomb into both worlds, albeit slightly less in the latter if following up on Vaimes' thoughts, but Newcomb lynched regardless of flip, doesn't help me narrow down worlds at all so I am not really interested in flipping him today, Newcomb flipping town would mean lylo situation tomorrow sans save, with us having to rely on the scumkill to help us narrow down worlds, and him flipping scum would basically just leave me in the same position as I am in now.
Iso is my 2nd lowest person on my list of the voters, and I am in the same position as with Newcomb that I can fit him into most places. If 2/3 basic games have had vigis, I think there's a fairly large chance of scum!Iso just being shot next night by the actual vigi, it seems strange to go straight for the vigi fakeclaim early day2, as opposed to just see if you can't talk your way out of it, but the general attitude towards the game just feels so 'off' from a vigistandpoint in my head.
I think Iso immediately claiming Vig when it isn't at least MyLo is uh. He's probably trueclaiming.
Because what? He sowed enough confusion D1 to hide his teammates, and now...he's potentially going to let himself get lynched here by claiming a shot on a widely townread player who flipped PR? Since when do scum want credit for such an awful kill?
This post is mostly aimed at Regfan and tom. Aside from a *****ton of pointless wine, I don't see Iso being scum here.
@Vaimes I take it you know Iso best in this thread, is this, dare I say almost Fontiesque? Way of considering his own reads so superior to everyone elses that he'd happily take out someone widely townread, rather than focussing on people that are in most people's poes ?
I guess I'm missing a "something you'd consider normal" at the end of that sentence.
Iso is a pretty selfish player, so in a vacuum, I buy that he'd shoot Grapefruit without considering the townreads on him.
I guess I just really dislike the "I can't reevaluate the gamestate until x=y is dead" and then he went ahead and made a shot that doesn't look at all like he reevaluated anything.
Honestly, I am leaning town on him after skimming through his posts. The stubborn vote, the insistence that he'd be confirmed town after lynching x=y, the dismissive tone; for him to be mafia here, he'd have to be sabotaging his own play and relying on wine to get out of dying. Which...is a lot less likely than him just being town and making questionable decisions.
"But Vaimes, that's probably what he WANTS you to think!" That is a really unhelpful line of discussion so I'm not even going to bother with it should anyone try that line on me.
@Regfan, don't really think that Newcomb's "I hope I'm not being fooled!" is something that's out of his scum range or even something that he'd be unlikely to do as scum. Hope that when you get a little more time you go through his posts in depth; I do feel like there's something significant right here and right now it feels like you're brushing me off and I don't like it; if I'm being crazy then I need you to talk me off the ledge, and "one of his posts look genuine" isn't really the way to do that.
DV, the post you quoted was an "oh, by the way..." type of post that I made right before I went to sleep; if you were looking for the stances that I felt strongly about, all you needed to do was go back a page.
Regfan, the part that really sticks out to me about Pozzai is his later interactions with you; there reaches a point where his pushback against you got really really stale and that's what bumped him from a meh scumread to a confident one. Before then, X=Y seemed like a better, "gotcha" type of lynch that had no reason to push against.
Typing.on mobile is driving me crazy, so so if there are spelling errors or grammar that's completely ruined that's why.
Honestly, I am leaning town on him after skimming through his posts. The stubborn vote, the insistence that he'd be confirmed town after lynching x=y, the dismissive tone; for him to be mafia here, he'd have to be sabotaging his own play and relying on wine to get out of dying. Which...is a lot less likely than him just being town and making questionable decisions.
"But Vaimes, that's probably what he WANTS you to think!" That is a really unhelpful line of discussion so I'm not even going to bother with it should anyone try that line on me.
But Vaimes, that's probably what he WANTS you to think!
If Regfan is lynched and flip scum, I think is dislike Tom less, but tomorrow is definitely harder to mesh together.
Now this is a bit strange. Feel like Regfan and I have steadily cozied up to one another and would fully expect some pressure if I was wrong about him. Why would him being scum make you dislike me less?
If Regfan is lynched and flip scum, I think is dislike Tom less, but tomorrow is definitely harder to mesh together.
Now this is a bit strange. Feel like Regfan and I have steadily cozied up to one another and would fully expect some pressure if I was wrong about him. Why would him being scum make you dislike me less?
Haha, that was actually an accidental double negative, I was talking about teams, and you are correct, his flipping scum would make you 'more' likely scum in my mind. Move along, nothing to see here....
Delphine is occassionally actively non-opportunistic. Like, #641. People wanted her to affirm their Pozzai notions. It would have been so easy to (shade town Pozzai / defend buddy Pozzai / whatever). There is no agenda to Delphine's posts.
Purely out of selfish reasons, do you have an example of this that does not involve me?
This is also odd, because you being town would almost lock in this read for me.
Delphine is occassionally actively non-opportunistic. Like, #641. People wanted her to affirm their Pozzai notions. It would have been so easy to (shade town Pozzai / defend buddy Pozzai / whatever). There is no agenda to Delphine's posts.
Purely out of selfish reasons, do you have an example of this that does not involve me?
This is also odd, because you being town would almost lock in this read for me.
See that is where we disagree, scum!Delphine pushing on me day1, for what I'd consider poor reasons without me having a strong townread on her, could very well backfire on her on my townflip. I think scum!Delphine would not neccessarily run that risk day1 where she after having read a person she knows well wrong and pushed him day1, she has to live for two days without being lynched in response.
I think it is an unnecessary risk for scum!Delphine to take, especially if she felt like the X=Y lynch was highly likely to go through.
I don't think Delphine is scum for a few reasons, I was merely hoping for you to have an agenda point not revolving around me to help strengthen or soften my read.
Ok, how about her read on Ophidiaslot in #311/344?
It's a scumread, but she's not jumping on me or nacho's questions, or Newcomb's read. She's just doing her own thing.
Quickly skimmed it, will look deeper into it when I get home from work/tomorrow as those kind of nuances is not really my thing in terms of spotting them. First impressions from only skimming her posts not what prompted them or interacted with them I'm not 100% sold, I do like the "think it would give a better read if Ophidia engaged some of the interactions instead of being reactionary" part at the end. It's kind of "c'mon give me something to work with" in a manner I don't think a partner would take to another partner in, at least not in thread.
Will look into notes when I get back in terms of where in the day it was located, ie X=Y wagon status and scumchat status.
This is me, admitting I might just be tunneling Iso. In my experience he is excellent as town and total ***** that's easily caught as scum. He's decidedly more towards the total ***** side this game. I guess it's possible he's sometimes good as scum and bad as town, but I've never really seen either. Even when he kind of sucked in Titanic Ultimatum, he was thinking about stuff and making reads. They were largely incorrect, but a single scum is hard to find and I think he even voted him at some point.
If Iso is town vig and just took the worst shot imaginable (Yes, the worst. Even without the PR flip, that was absolutely the single worst shot as evidenced by no one even questioning it was the scum kill before claim. And the reasons he had for the read weren't good in the first place but they also were no longer even true by EoD), claimed at a horrendous time, and obviously can't be assed to read/care/solve/give real reads... Well, that sucks.
But I do see the profit in not lynching a claimed PR today. Because if we get a claim or flip from any other non-protective roll Iso is obviously lying, but I don't want that claim to happen today. And if he really is vig, scum would almost have to NK him because I don't think anyone here believes townIso would continue to be this bad forever (just a reminder, his called scumteam was xequalsy/grapefruit/vaimes)
I think you're town. I don't think you come after me as a wolf here, and your posts are... comfortable, for lack of a better word. Your posts since the start of the Day have that holistic "I'd be pretty impressed if this were coming from scum!Vaimes" feeling that I associate with town!you.
I am also town. I joined this game because the playerlist was too tempting not to, but as I said in the signup thread, you are not getting the Full Newcomb Experience this game. You just aren't. My superpower when I play mafia is that, usually, when I'm in a game it takes up a lot of my attention, even when I'm not actively playing. I /care/ about it in a way that's probably not even healthy. I obsessively re-read, I think about it at night before I go to sleep, and I constantly f5 the thread. You are not getting that this game, you never were getting that this game regardless of alignment. I'm currently rehearsing 6 days a week for a musical that opens in 3 weeks, and that is my current obsession. That's what I'm thinking about in quiet moments. Not this game.
I still care about this game, I would like to win, but you are all just going to have to come to terms with the fact that it is not, and will not be unless it drags on to late March, my top priority, or even in the top 5 of my priorities.
Either our active protective role stinks, or scum have roles that suggest a passive protective role, or none at all.
Taking an open shot on Grapefruit N1 seems eh.
But anyways, I hate hate hate Newcomb's EoD post where he highlighted a bunch of good reasons to move the wagon off of x=y, and then went "but yeah let's lynch him anyway, otherwise we have to clear him." Which is total bull*****.
Vaimes, I am asking you to take this read a step further.
In the world where I'm mafia, what's my mindset for making that post? What do you think that I thought it would get me? What's my agenda? Why am I not content to just let xequalsy go gently into that good night?
In the world where I'm town and my mindset about this game is everything I just said above, what's my mindset for making that post?
Which one of those two things is more likely, and why?
Just. I'm not asking you to clear me. But really work through the mindset in your head. Put yourself in my shoes.
If you come out of that still scumreading me, I'm probably going to be mostly ignoring you toDay because nothing is more frustrating than townreading someone who scumreads you; fair warning.
Also if you /are/ mafia here and I find a post in scumchat postgame about how you're going to use this rare opportunity of a RL-busy Newcomb to push a mislynch on me for the lulz, I'm going to be mildly - well, majorly - tilted.
Now.
Here's where I stand without a re-read. I don't have time to do a full re-read, but I do want to go back and revisit some things in light of the two flips we've had.
Regfan - If Regfan's mafia here, then my impression of how good his scumgame would be was pretty wrong. He's constantly trying to solve the game while under zero pressure, and that's... a pretty strong towntell. If I really reach for it, I kiiinda don't like the way he brushed off my "reasons for townreading xequalsy"; it smelled a little too Goldilocks "strong enough to push me off it, but not so strong he'll stand out as the guy trying to force through a mislynch" feeling, but that's. That's a read where I'm actively looking for reasons why I might be wrong. I don't think I'm wrong and Reg's probably Just Town.
Nacho - I think Nacho fits pretty perfectly into the scum archtype of "guy who active lurks an entire Day when town is focused on a mislynch." I singled out Nacho, Iso, and Vaimes as "there almost has to be mafia in this group if xequalsy is town" yesterDay, and like. I think Vaimes is town. Iso is actually probably >rand scum here, but as a claimed Vig in a simple setup he's... pretty much just self-resolving. Nacho started off good on tone and tbh his tone still /feels/ okay but it's like. It's D2, and I can't get to town on him. So many of his posts are just... taking someone's read, and breaking it down and going "hmm I don't agree with this because <reasons>", but then not going any further.
Dv/Typhonslot - I still think Typhon's early game felt pretty town. Maybe less so now that xequalsy is confirmed town, I really thought those early interactions were clearing if he were mafia. I want to go back and read his push on xqeualsy in the middle of the Day. DV's posts.. haven't really done anything for me toDay? I don't really like their... brashness, but I agree with the Nacho read. Don't agree with the Vaimes read, but at this point I heartily approve of other people pushing on Vaimes, as long as it doesn't become a focus. Because of Typhon's RL stuff I've kind of been hanging this read in abeyance for a while. I'm not really interested in lynching this slot toDay so I'm pretty content to see see what DV does and go from there.
tom - I've talked a bit about how tom snapping in and out of the Voxx gimmick felt town. I've talked a bit about the Monte Diamond - which is really just shorthand for what I believe about tom's personality and approach to mafia. I don't think I've talked about his approach to Iso, but the, hm, indignation? Feels real. I'd say those are three light town pings without any real scum ping other than the fairly nebulous idea that tom cares more about being townread as mafia. Wouldn't lynch toDay, gun to my head town, not super confident in that read. I think I'm like, 1 for 4 or something on reading tom correctly, so.
Iso - self-resolving, which is nice. In a Basic the setup is basically (hah) going to tell us if he's lying or not. I... kind of struggle to see that shot coming from town, and I reeeeally struggle to see his first thought being "oh, we must have a protective role" and not "crap, I double stacked with the NK", given Grape's status on D1, but. I don't not believe it's something that could potentially come from town. I'm actually super glad he claimed Vig because I can basically just ignore him now either way.
Ophidia/Killjoy - Meeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhh. When I talk about him being an inevitable PoE lynch, it's not like I'm /happy/ about it. And now that it's a different player we'll see a different look, which is good. But my basic issue with Ophidia's posts D1 was that there's a real large dichotomy between the tone of them and the content. I look at the tone and I think "no guile, town." I look at the content and I think, "that's not real, scum." Look at Reg's point about Ophidia's stated reasons for wanting to put his vote on those three wagons. How it just doesn't... make any kind of sense. In a game where I don't have any really strong scumreads, how is a slot posting like that /not/ going to get just PoE'd out? New wrinkle: I don't like Killjoy's reads. On first blush it smells a lot like "leaving mislynches open."
Pozzai - Lack of bite on the Regfan scumread doesn't feel good. Whoever said his playstyle was such that he was kind of floating through until he found someone to vibe with struck a chord with me; it's what's keeping me from really committing to a scumread here. I keep trying to draw parallels between Pozzai/Reg and Pozzai/Acio in that WH on FS about a year ago, because I had such a strong feeling that they were v/v there and... not really so much here? Not gonna lie, I'd like Reg to lay out his whole case and I'm pretty open to just sheeping it if I agree with it. I mean, he probably deserves a re-read on his own and if we do end up wagoning him I'll do that, but. This doesn't even feel like a read, really, it just feels like... someone I've read a Day's worth of posts on and I haven't been able to get to Town.
Delphine - I think with xequalsy flipping town that dramatically increases Delphine's odds of being scum. I still like her approach to me, but that pales in comparison to her thread presence D1. Her late shot of confidence in the xequalsy read feels... a little odd, coming from someone who knows he's about to flip town? But the main thing here is that there just has to, has to, has to be mafia in the people who were not really trying hard D1 and Delphine fits that to a T. Bookmark mainly for myself here but I did say I'd not let xequalsy's reads be swept under the rug if he did flip town, and I do remember him hard scumreading Delphine. Not going to treat his reads as gospel or anything, but I do owe him the courtesy of bringing them up and going over them now that we know they were honest. Confirmed town doesn't = accuracy or anything, but when you're the one everyone's pushing on, you're often in the best position to judge the honesty of those pushes, so. Gotta do that as well.
I think that's everyone? Currently I want to lynch in [Nacho, Pozzai, Delphine, Ophidiaslot]. Frankly if there isn't mafia in that cluster I'm never going to win this game, ever.
I'd say the only people I feel really solid about as town are Reg and Vaimes. tom's a townread but not really close to that level at all. Typhonslot is a notch below tom but the distance between those reads is smaller than the distance between tom and Vaimes/Reg. Iso's his own category.
If I have time toDay, I want to go over the posts people have made toDay and respond to some of them. If you have specific questions, ping me, but I can't guarantee I'll get around to them until Wednesday, which is the 1 night a week I don't have rehearsal.
Newcomb, nothing in my read of you is "Newcomb isn't obsessing over the thread enough, lynch it." Nor do I think it would have taken a surmountable effort to change your vote and request others do the same if they agree with you.
You're asking me a lot of questions, but you still haven't answered a really important one: why did you say we had to clear x=y if we didn't lynch him D1? That is what's really bugging me here.
You say you want to win, but from my POV, you saw a potential mislynch and just shrugged and went for it. I don't want to punish you for wanting to be less Obsessed, but I don't want to just let it go either.
It stings a bit that you think I'd try and take you out as mafia when you're busy for a cheap laugh, ngl.
Vaimes I have a question for you how open do you think town players should be to others in terms of reads, changing reads. Etc.
I don't know. I'm mostly okay with people just doing their own thing, provided it doesn't shoot their own team in the foot.
I voice ~almost everything that's on my mind. I don't like holding onto thoughts for secret reasons (unless I'm a PR with info or whatever) because 1) it will make people suspicious and they'll waste time asking me why I didn't share my thought process in the first place, and 2) I usually don't take notes in MTGS games, so I'm liable to forget why a read changed.
Newcomb, nothing in my read of you is "Newcomb isn't obsessing over the thread enough, lynch it." Nor do I think it would have taken a surmountable effort to change your vote and request others do the same if they agree with you.
You're asking me a lot of questions, but you still haven't answered a really important one: why did you say we had to clear x=y if we didn't lynch him D1? That is what's really bugging me here.
You say you want to win, but from my POV, you saw a potential mislynch and just shrugged and went for it. I don't want to punish you for wanting to be less Obsessed, but I don't want to just let it go either.
It stings a bit that you think I'd try and take you out as mafia when you're busy for a cheap laugh, ngl.
Do you think xequalsy would just, like, summon up a new posting style D2 if he'd lived?
Not lynching him there means, inevitably, that we're just in the same position on D2. He'd be alive, a question mark, and posting without town energy. It just... wouldn't progress the game at all. Unless you just clear him. If you could really make that jump and look at those reasons I gave and say, "yeah, this is just... always a mislynch, given how this Day has gone," then you progress the game and work from there. But if you can't, and I couldn't quite bring myself to (both because I wasn't /sure/ sure, and because this being an easy game would just be too nice given my business to not find out), it just... doesn't make sense not to lynch him unless you want to hear a remix of D1 on D2. It sucks that he was town, but at least it's over and done with and forcing people to either genuinely look elsewhere or fake looking elsewhere. A living town!xequalsy D2 just gives scum cover, again, unless we actually made the jump to clear him.
This isn't, like, a new concept or anything. In fact I'm pretty sure I used this exact same reasoning to lynch DLE in the Wildcard game, which IIRC you read, so like. What gives?
Here, Newcomb, let's try this. I'll be you for a sec.
This game isn't a huuuge priority for me because I want to enjoy Other Stuff, but I'd still prefer to win and help my teammates and junk.
x=y has been scummy, he's a pretty consensus scumread. It's too easy, no real alternatives have popped up or been proposed. The complete lack of resistance to this lynch ~probably means he's town. I don't really have the energy to force another wagon --
That's where the narrative splits and gets fuzzy for me. One path leads to a world where you're mafia, the other, town.
In the mafia world, you made that post to look like you're thinking about the game. To sort of distance yourself from a wagon you want to go through anyways. You frame the lynch as an either-or, a black or white: "Either we lynch x=y now or we have to clear him. I don't want to clear him, therefore, lynch." This is the main reason I'm on this path.
In the town world, you wanted to wagon someone else, but felt like it wouldn't work out. And it would probably take waaay too much effort to convince everyone (like Iso) to lynch/wagon someone else.
Overall it's a case of words vs. actions. Your words said "I should move the wagon, or at least my vote," and your actions said "lynch away."
So yeah, the "we have to clear him" thing is all I really want answered. I don't need a lecture on your personal life, I'm already aware you have a song in your soul and a dance in your heart.
Newcomb, nothing in my read of you is "Newcomb isn't obsessing over the thread enough, lynch it." Nor do I think it would have taken a surmountable effort to change your vote and request others do the same if they agree with you.
You're asking me a lot of questions, but you still haven't answered a really important one: why did you say we had to clear x=y if we didn't lynch him D1? That is what's really bugging me here.
You say you want to win, but from my POV, you saw a potential mislynch and just shrugged and went for it. I don't want to punish you for wanting to be less Obsessed, but I don't want to just let it go either.
It stings a bit that you think I'd try and take you out as mafia when you're busy for a cheap laugh, ngl.
Do you think xequalsy would just, like, summon up a new posting style D2 if he'd lived?
Not lynching him there means, inevitably, that we're just in the same position on D2. He'd be alive, a question mark, and posting without town energy. It just... wouldn't progress the game at all. Unless you just clear him. If you could really make that jump and look at those reasons I gave and say, "yeah, this is just... always a mislynch, given how this Day has gone," then you progress the game and work from there. But if you can't, and I couldn't quite bring myself to (both because I wasn't /sure/ sure, and because this being an easy game would just be too nice given my business to not find out), it just... doesn't make sense not to lynch him unless you want to hear a remix of D1 on D2. It sucks that he was town, but at least it's over and done with and forcing people to either genuinely look elsewhere or fake looking elsewhere. A living town!xequalsy D2 just gives scum cover, again, unless we actually made the jump to clear him.
This isn't, like, a new concept or anything. In fact I'm pretty sure I used this exact same reasoning to lynch DLE in the Wildcard game, which IIRC you read, so like. What gives?
In general, I think a lot of people mistake "being scummy" for "being likely to actually flip scum".
Are you saying we couldn't have cleared him based on future actions, reactions, interactions, PR info, wagon info, spew, blah blah blah? Are we lynching people who look scummy, or people who are likely scum? You know how some people are stale on D1 and flare to life as the game goes on.
I don't see a reason why he had to be lynched, full stop. There was no deadline. He only got lynched because he superficially looked bad and was the unfortunate D1 tunnel of Iso. And now I'm kind of kicking myself for not trying to swing the wagon.
Also, I didn't read that game. As if I have the time. I just skimmed your ISO mostly.
Unless I'm forgetting something recent. If anyone knows let don't be shy.
Oh for the record I would have lynched Iso yesterday too.
I'll post later about why I think vaimes is scum but basically it comes from the attitude of the last couple of posts. It's pretty scummy IMO.
@Tom - I don't disagree with Grapes being a bad shot (Certainly wasn't the worst though), I also don't disagree with it possibly being a gambit that Isos running here (Like I said it's one I've run in the past) and very much do want an explanation from him re; the target but I think getting caught up with the "No vig would make that shot" element is a really bad idea, especially this early on into the game and after seeing Fonti do it last game; there's enough that points towards him being legitimate to at least focus elsewhere today, finding out more about the setup later effectively confirms him as town or mafia. Think DV's vote looked bad regardless of anyone elses alignment. Iso/Pozzai/Ophi was one of many wack scum teams I came out of last night with, don't think it's likely anymore.
(I actually only really read the first 200 posts, then decided to jump to wagon analysis since I didn't think I'd finish the full thread before Day start. I'm gonna be continuing rereading as we go though.
1. Vaimes-Lean scum. He's been giving me lots of language pings. I don't remember him doing this in that other game we played together. I do remember us arguing a bunch though, so maybe that was why? Anywho, here's his post 40 with some thoughts.
This post though.
He opens the post with a very aggressive @tom for not answering his "you're using capital letters?" question, which is weird because the question seems rhetorical in light of the fact that it's not immediately obvious that he's actually refering to tom being serious this game. I think most people would assume it rhetorical since it's obvious that he is, in fact, using capital letters.
He's weirded out that tom's being serious (which is fine, tom's a weirdo), but then he wonders why Nacho isn't freaking out as well. It's kinda throwing shade at Nacho for "completely ignoring it" which itself is loaded language. He seems to think Nacho SHOULD be questioning it, maybe even suspicious of it. I'm not sure even tom being serious merits sounding the riot alarm over 40 posts in.
Third line has him reiterating that tom is ignoring him and positing that tom should stop asking him questions and start answering them, basically.
Fourth dislikes that tom is asking things about Nacho (implying that Vaimes should be suspicious of Nacho) when Vaimes is already voting for Nacho. Problem I have with it is that his Nacho vote came during a time that's usually RVS with no qualifier for it being serious. I certainly didn't know it was serious till now, and would be surprised if tom did too.
re: Ophidia's vote on him... I obviousy can't speak for my predecessor as to why she (he?) voted for him over the others, but again, it looked like an RVS vote. It felt to me like a "Oh, people I know are in this game. I'm gonna randomly vote one of them." And Vaimes immediate jump on that seems really defensive for little reason.
The next to last line is weird also because up until that point, I'd figured this post from Vaimes to be a generally emotional one.Like he was just mad. But this line, both in substance and with the addition of the smiley at the end make it feel... less so. Like this wasn't just a ragepost.
Last line was snarky. Fine.
So, overall, this is a weird post for me. It seems... unnaturally angry at tom for not doing stuff that tom should have not necessarily been automatically doing. The question he asked tom "Are you using capital letters?" was unclear, and myself and Nacho interpretted it the same way: that he was sarcastically asking NACHO why he was mimicing the mod (in a "really? We're doing that? Really?" kinda way) and not a question to tom about his taking the game seriously. Also the little slight at Nacho for ignoring it is weird, especially considering he slams tom for implying that he might be suspicious of Nacho when it wasn't necessarily clear that was happening. And the defensiveness over the one vote is obviously weird too, as well as the abrupt change in tone followed by the change back with the snark.
Does Vaimes usually do this? I don't remember Vaimes being this all over the place in the other game we played together.
2. tomsloger-Null. Tom is being tom. He'll be easier for me to PoE later than try to determine alignment D1.
3. Iso-scum. Actually ISO'd him because his play in the part I'd read was thoroughly unimpressive (faking not knowing how many scum there are in a basic? Come on now.)Rest isn't much better. His claim of Vig really makes me not like him though. I'll go into that in my next post.
4. Grapefruit21 (mentor: Anaklusmos)-Strong town. Specifically strong newbie town for 82, because most scum, especially less experienced ones don't question other people's townreads on them. (Now dead town tracker)
5. D_V (r. Typhrous)- Null. Typh didn't leave much of an impression.
6. DelphiBlue (mentor: Proph)-Null only because I remember thinking she might be town but I can't remember why. Or maybe a very light lean town.
7. Pozzai-Null. His spammy posts haven't swayed me one way or the other.
8. Newcomb-Null. I found myself grazing past his posts for some reason. It was weird.
10. Regfan-Town. I found myself liking most of the posts that I read. The posts where he linked a buch of posts in them seemed well thought out and rational.
12. Nachomamma8-I want him to be town, but I remember him being different in Mindscrew. He was having fun, but he also did things, and his early posts show only fun. Although I was too focused on being scum to notice too much about his playstyle so take that with a grain of salt.
For clarity:
Town:
Regfan
Delphi (light lean)
Nacho?
Null:
Tom
Pozz
Newcomb
Scum:
Iso
Vaimes (leaning)
Now, the Xeq wagon.
Iso's vote is not a great one. Iso votes him for his response to Iso's opening post "hi", then he kinda leaves his vote on him the entire day. xeq's response was "thoughts?".
IDK if Iso's correct that that specific response is a scum thing to do. I'd have to see evidence of it. Just from a theoretical standpoint it seems more null than anything. It could easily be a townie saying "I know nothing about your slot. Give me something" as it is scum looking busy, which I don't actually personally think is a scumtell.
I think Delphi is tunnelling. There's evidence of confbiasing, plus she's said that it's been "literally years since she's felt someone was this scummy" or something. Not the best reason but not a scummy one.
As a reason I like it, but I don't like that he left the vote for 400 posts.
This vote is justified pretty thoroughly I think. One of the better votes on the wagon.
This is Grape's third vote onto this wagon. His first was terrible (just sheeped everyone else) but this is the third and it reinforces my townread on him. Scum typically don't hop on and off a townie wagon so brazenly.He unvotes again later (then apperently revotes), but this is something I wanted to address.
Apathy.
Apathy
Also apathy.
I know I included Typh's vote too but still. I don't like the language "no compelling reason to fight this" but he was town so I guess it's fine? Apathy in the end.
Summary of wagon: Iso looks worst. I think it's probable that one of the apathy votes is also scum, but that's not a for sure thing... just a feeling.
@Vaimes I take it you know Iso best in this thread, is this, dare I say almost Fontiesque? Way of considering his own reads so superior to everyone elses that he'd happily take out someone widely townread, rather than focussing on people that are in most people's poes ?
To me this is the absolutely worst vote on X=Y throughout the game.
I mean, look through those two cases (#209 and #211) with the eyes of town!Typhrous.
How does this overall result in an X=Y vote, the Ophidia case is much more thorough, much deeper. How come Typhrous doesn't go "whelp, maybe Ophidia would be a better vote" after writing those two, even if he wanted to vote X=Y prior to this.
This sounds more like a decent case on a scumbuddy for me, so that if an Ophidia wagon ever started they could point back and be like "yeah I called that".
These two quotes about how he changed his game on purpose, how his scumreads are usually good, but the wagons he joins are not, only to do a 180 and be like "well I'll just jump the popular wagon if necessary afterwards, simply does not compute with me.
Outside that he initially wanted to do a reread of Regfan and myself, never comes to any conclussion of that reread, then lump us in there as scum, alongside X=Y while asking people for reasons they vote me(us) basically as Regfan touched on calling out all the 'safe' wagons of the thread.
Shortly after they answer Newcomb's question about what the chances are that Regfan and me are T/T, W/W, T/W, W/T and gives T/T 60% chance, though still doesn't vote X=Y which honestly could fit with either of us and in the world where we're both town, from his PoV ought to be nearly always mafia.
The slot screams of not wanting to be voting on a town, and I look forward to see what Killjoy comes out with later.
I feel like from what I talked about Typhrous earlier, I can see a Ophidia(Killjoy)/Typhrous(D_V)/X world, I think Regfan doesn't really fit in there due to his questioning about Ophidia's scums being 'easy' which is 'meh' and I think my Typhrous things doesn't reaaaally make sense in a scum!Typh_V, town!Ophjoy world.
How much experience do you have with Vaimes? Is his assessment of you being wrong on him 'always' valid? What do you think of his day1 contributions?
Purely out of selfish reasons, do you have an example of this that does not involve me?
Can you talk to me a bit more about Newcomb, I can see your points, and I was weirded out by his going about reading you. I have liked a whole lot of what he's been saying outside that though, when I was rereading the game it kind of struck me how much effort he had put into some of his posts, because that is not quite like I remember him posting as town, but at the same time that's probably extremely unfair seeing as I haven't played with him for over a year.
Say Newcomb had immunity right now, whose flip and alignment of said flip would reveal most about his alignment?
Probably Ophidiaslot.
I don't know exactly how many games I've played with Nacho. A bunch. We're vaguely buddies.
Mhmkay. Does he usually have a strong read on you and is it akin people that I know's reads?
And I would guess you'd feel scum!Ophjoy would make you feel stronger about scum!Newcomb from what I remember of interactions? Seeing as you didn't answer that bit.
I already felt weird about Newcomb sorta-kinda writing off Ophidia, but yeah, him flipping scum would make me want Newcomb dead even more.
Sorry should've clarified, I meant Nacho in regards to the read thingie.
Nacho and I have been on opposite teams roughly half the time, so I'm not actually sure. I wouldn't say 'strong,' but he gets me.
No u! And thx.
Please guide me to victory, because I cannot trust living beings to do it for me.
Thanks,
love Vaimes
---
Iso - 1 (xequalsy)
Pozzai - 2 (Vaimes, Regfan)
Regfan - 2 (Nachomamma8, Pozzai)
Vaimes - 1 (Ophidia)
xequalsy - 6 (Typhrous, Iso, DelphiBlue, Newcomb, Grapefruit21, tomsloger) (L-1)
---
This is what the game looks like for me sans reads. There is most definitely going to be at least one off-wagon scum in [Regfan, Nacho, Pozzai, Ophidia]. I don't believe it's Nacho. I don't reeeally believe it's Regfan. Pozzai is iffy, but not my first choice. I think it's Ophidia.
Other people should re-state who they think is scum within that group of four and why. Unless you think that the entire scumteam is voting for x=y in this snapshot?
Really wish Iso had used his brain in addition to his vig shot, if he even is a vig, and shot Ophidia. I think I disagree with Reg that this is something scum!Iso would do, fakeclaiming Vig and all that, but it's thin, and the Day is young. He'll get sorted out if/when we massclaim.
I think both Regfan and Ophidia fits as potential scum outside, less certain about Nacho. I agree with whoever said Nacho said a whole lot without 'saying a lot', but I kind of like his Vaimes read, and in particular a sucker for him adding the "I think Vaimes has a certain 'bite' over him" which is very much part of how I read Vaimes.
For me the 'easy' world is OphJoy/Typh_V/X, I think at the current gamestate if OphJoy is lynched today and flip scum, I'd kill Typh_V tomorrow in almost every instance.
If Regfan is lynched and flip scum, I think is dislike Tom less, but tomorrow is definitely harder to mesh together.
I think outside personal read of him, I can fit Newcomb into both worlds, albeit slightly less in the latter if following up on Vaimes' thoughts, but Newcomb lynched regardless of flip, doesn't help me narrow down worlds at all so I am not really interested in flipping him today, Newcomb flipping town would mean lylo situation tomorrow sans save, with us having to rely on the scumkill to help us narrow down worlds, and him flipping scum would basically just leave me in the same position as I am in now.
Iso is my 2nd lowest person on my list of the voters, and I am in the same position as with Newcomb that I can fit him into most places. If 2/3 basic games have had vigis, I think there's a fairly large chance of scum!Iso just being shot next night by the actual vigi, it seems strange to go straight for the vigi fakeclaim early day2, as opposed to just see if you can't talk your way out of it, but the general attitude towards the game just feels so 'off' from a vigistandpoint in my head.
Because what? He sowed enough confusion D1 to hide his teammates, and now...he's potentially going to let himself get lynched here by claiming a shot on a widely townread player who flipped PR? Since when do scum want credit for such an awful kill?
This post is mostly aimed at Regfan and tom. Aside from a *****ton of pointless wine, I don't see Iso being scum here.
Iso should just explain himself rather than "I thought about OMGUS'ing tom but didn't."
Could you answer #747 for me?
I guess I'm missing a "something you'd consider normal" at the end of that sentence.
I guess I just really dislike the "I can't reevaluate the gamestate until x=y is dead" and then he went ahead and made a shot that doesn't look at all like he reevaluated anything.
"But Vaimes, that's probably what he WANTS you to think!" That is a really unhelpful line of discussion so I'm not even going to bother with it should anyone try that line on me.
DV, the post you quoted was an "oh, by the way..." type of post that I made right before I went to sleep; if you were looking for the stances that I felt strongly about, all you needed to do was go back a page.
Regfan, the part that really sticks out to me about Pozzai is his later interactions with you; there reaches a point where his pushback against you got really really stale and that's what bumped him from a meh scumread to a confident one. Before then, X=Y seemed like a better, "gotcha" type of lynch that had no reason to push against.
Typing.on mobile is driving me crazy, so so if there are spelling errors or grammar that's completely ruined that's why.
Agree re: Iso.
Nacho
But Vaimes, that's probably what he WANTS you to think!
Now this is a bit strange. Feel like Regfan and I have steadily cozied up to one another and would fully expect some pressure if I was wrong about him. Why would him being scum make you dislike me less?
Haha, that was actually an accidental double negative, I was talking about teams, and you are correct, his flipping scum would make you 'more' likely scum in my mind. Move along, nothing to see here....
This is also odd, because you being town would almost lock in this read for me.
See that is where we disagree, scum!Delphine pushing on me day1, for what I'd consider poor reasons without me having a strong townread on her, could very well backfire on her on my townflip. I think scum!Delphine would not neccessarily run that risk day1 where she after having read a person she knows well wrong and pushed him day1, she has to live for two days without being lynched in response.
I think it is an unnecessary risk for scum!Delphine to take, especially if she felt like the X=Y lynch was highly likely to go through.
I don't think Delphine is scum for a few reasons, I was merely hoping for you to have an agenda point not revolving around me to help strengthen or soften my read.
It's a scumread, but she's not jumping on me or nacho's questions, or Newcomb's read. She's just doing her own thing.
Quickly skimmed it, will look deeper into it when I get home from work/tomorrow as those kind of nuances is not really my thing in terms of spotting them. First impressions from only skimming her posts not what prompted them or interacted with them I'm not 100% sold, I do like the "think it would give a better read if Ophidia engaged some of the interactions instead of being reactionary" part at the end. It's kind of "c'mon give me something to work with" in a manner I don't think a partner would take to another partner in, at least not in thread.
Will look into notes when I get back in terms of where in the day it was located, ie X=Y wagon status and scumchat status.
If Iso is town vig and just took the worst shot imaginable (Yes, the worst. Even without the PR flip, that was absolutely the single worst shot as evidenced by no one even questioning it was the scum kill before claim. And the reasons he had for the read weren't good in the first place but they also were no longer even true by EoD), claimed at a horrendous time, and obviously can't be assed to read/care/solve/give real reads... Well, that sucks.
But I do see the profit in not lynching a claimed PR today. Because if we get a claim or flip from any other non-protective roll Iso is obviously lying, but I don't want that claim to happen today. And if he really is vig, scum would almost have to NK him because I don't think anyone here believes townIso would continue to be this bad forever (just a reminder, his called scumteam was xequalsy/grapefruit/vaimes)
So. I'm not happy about it. But
unvote
I think you're town. I don't think you come after me as a wolf here, and your posts are... comfortable, for lack of a better word. Your posts since the start of the Day have that holistic "I'd be pretty impressed if this were coming from scum!Vaimes" feeling that I associate with town!you.
I am also town. I joined this game because the playerlist was too tempting not to, but as I said in the signup thread, you are not getting the Full Newcomb Experience this game. You just aren't. My superpower when I play mafia is that, usually, when I'm in a game it takes up a lot of my attention, even when I'm not actively playing. I /care/ about it in a way that's probably not even healthy. I obsessively re-read, I think about it at night before I go to sleep, and I constantly f5 the thread. You are not getting that this game, you never were getting that this game regardless of alignment. I'm currently rehearsing 6 days a week for a musical that opens in 3 weeks, and that is my current obsession. That's what I'm thinking about in quiet moments. Not this game.
I still care about this game, I would like to win, but you are all just going to have to come to terms with the fact that it is not, and will not be unless it drags on to late March, my top priority, or even in the top 5 of my priorities.
So.
Vaimes, I am asking you to take this read a step further.
In the world where I'm mafia, what's my mindset for making that post? What do you think that I thought it would get me? What's my agenda? Why am I not content to just let xequalsy go gently into that good night?
In the world where I'm town and my mindset about this game is everything I just said above, what's my mindset for making that post?
Which one of those two things is more likely, and why?
Just. I'm not asking you to clear me. But really work through the mindset in your head. Put yourself in my shoes.
If you come out of that still scumreading me, I'm probably going to be mostly ignoring you toDay because nothing is more frustrating than townreading someone who scumreads you; fair warning.
Also if you /are/ mafia here and I find a post in scumchat postgame about how you're going to use this rare opportunity of a RL-busy Newcomb to push a mislynch on me for the lulz, I'm going to be mildly - well, majorly - tilted.
Now.
Here's where I stand without a re-read. I don't have time to do a full re-read, but I do want to go back and revisit some things in light of the two flips we've had.
Regfan - If Regfan's mafia here, then my impression of how good his scumgame would be was pretty wrong. He's constantly trying to solve the game while under zero pressure, and that's... a pretty strong towntell. If I really reach for it, I kiiinda don't like the way he brushed off my "reasons for townreading xequalsy"; it smelled a little too Goldilocks "strong enough to push me off it, but not so strong he'll stand out as the guy trying to force through a mislynch" feeling, but that's. That's a read where I'm actively looking for reasons why I might be wrong. I don't think I'm wrong and Reg's probably Just Town.
Nacho - I think Nacho fits pretty perfectly into the scum archtype of "guy who active lurks an entire Day when town is focused on a mislynch." I singled out Nacho, Iso, and Vaimes as "there almost has to be mafia in this group if xequalsy is town" yesterDay, and like. I think Vaimes is town. Iso is actually probably >rand scum here, but as a claimed Vig in a simple setup he's... pretty much just self-resolving. Nacho started off good on tone and tbh his tone still /feels/ okay but it's like. It's D2, and I can't get to town on him. So many of his posts are just... taking someone's read, and breaking it down and going "hmm I don't agree with this because <reasons>", but then not going any further.
Dv/Typhonslot - I still think Typhon's early game felt pretty town. Maybe less so now that xequalsy is confirmed town, I really thought those early interactions were clearing if he were mafia. I want to go back and read his push on xqeualsy in the middle of the Day. DV's posts.. haven't really done anything for me toDay? I don't really like their... brashness, but I agree with the Nacho read. Don't agree with the Vaimes read, but at this point I heartily approve of other people pushing on Vaimes, as long as it doesn't become a focus. Because of Typhon's RL stuff I've kind of been hanging this read in abeyance for a while. I'm not really interested in lynching this slot toDay so I'm pretty content to see see what DV does and go from there.
tom - I've talked a bit about how tom snapping in and out of the Voxx gimmick felt town. I've talked a bit about the Monte Diamond - which is really just shorthand for what I believe about tom's personality and approach to mafia. I don't think I've talked about his approach to Iso, but the, hm, indignation? Feels real. I'd say those are three light town pings without any real scum ping other than the fairly nebulous idea that tom cares more about being townread as mafia. Wouldn't lynch toDay, gun to my head town, not super confident in that read. I think I'm like, 1 for 4 or something on reading tom correctly, so.
Iso - self-resolving, which is nice. In a Basic the setup is basically (hah) going to tell us if he's lying or not. I... kind of struggle to see that shot coming from town, and I reeeeally struggle to see his first thought being "oh, we must have a protective role" and not "crap, I double stacked with the NK", given Grape's status on D1, but. I don't not believe it's something that could potentially come from town. I'm actually super glad he claimed Vig because I can basically just ignore him now either way.
Ophidia/Killjoy - Meeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhh. When I talk about him being an inevitable PoE lynch, it's not like I'm /happy/ about it. And now that it's a different player we'll see a different look, which is good. But my basic issue with Ophidia's posts D1 was that there's a real large dichotomy between the tone of them and the content. I look at the tone and I think "no guile, town." I look at the content and I think, "that's not real, scum." Look at Reg's point about Ophidia's stated reasons for wanting to put his vote on those three wagons. How it just doesn't... make any kind of sense. In a game where I don't have any really strong scumreads, how is a slot posting like that /not/ going to get just PoE'd out? New wrinkle: I don't like Killjoy's reads. On first blush it smells a lot like "leaving mislynches open."
Pozzai - Lack of bite on the Regfan scumread doesn't feel good. Whoever said his playstyle was such that he was kind of floating through until he found someone to vibe with struck a chord with me; it's what's keeping me from really committing to a scumread here. I keep trying to draw parallels between Pozzai/Reg and Pozzai/Acio in that WH on FS about a year ago, because I had such a strong feeling that they were v/v there and... not really so much here? Not gonna lie, I'd like Reg to lay out his whole case and I'm pretty open to just sheeping it if I agree with it. I mean, he probably deserves a re-read on his own and if we do end up wagoning him I'll do that, but. This doesn't even feel like a read, really, it just feels like... someone I've read a Day's worth of posts on and I haven't been able to get to Town.
Delphine - I think with xequalsy flipping town that dramatically increases Delphine's odds of being scum. I still like her approach to me, but that pales in comparison to her thread presence D1. Her late shot of confidence in the xequalsy read feels... a little odd, coming from someone who knows he's about to flip town? But the main thing here is that there just has to, has to, has to be mafia in the people who were not really trying hard D1 and Delphine fits that to a T. Bookmark mainly for myself here but I did say I'd not let xequalsy's reads be swept under the rug if he did flip town, and I do remember him hard scumreading Delphine. Not going to treat his reads as gospel or anything, but I do owe him the courtesy of bringing them up and going over them now that we know they were honest. Confirmed town doesn't = accuracy or anything, but when you're the one everyone's pushing on, you're often in the best position to judge the honesty of those pushes, so. Gotta do that as well.
I think that's everyone? Currently I want to lynch in [Nacho, Pozzai, Delphine, Ophidiaslot]. Frankly if there isn't mafia in that cluster I'm never going to win this game, ever.
I'd say the only people I feel really solid about as town are Reg and Vaimes. tom's a townread but not really close to that level at all. Typhonslot is a notch below tom but the distance between those reads is smaller than the distance between tom and Vaimes/Reg. Iso's his own category.
If I have time toDay, I want to go over the posts people have made toDay and respond to some of them. If you have specific questions, ping me, but I can't guarantee I'll get around to them until Wednesday, which is the 1 night a week I don't have rehearsal.
You're asking me a lot of questions, but you still haven't answered a really important one: why did you say we had to clear x=y if we didn't lynch him D1? That is what's really bugging me here.
You say you want to win, but from my POV, you saw a potential mislynch and just shrugged and went for it. I don't want to punish you for wanting to be less Obsessed, but I don't want to just let it go either.
It stings a bit that you think I'd try and take you out as mafia when you're busy for a cheap laugh, ngl.
I voice ~almost everything that's on my mind. I don't like holding onto thoughts for secret reasons (unless I'm a PR with info or whatever) because 1) it will make people suspicious and they'll waste time asking me why I didn't share my thought process in the first place, and 2) I usually don't take notes in MTGS games, so I'm liable to forget why a read changed.
Do you think xequalsy would just, like, summon up a new posting style D2 if he'd lived?
Not lynching him there means, inevitably, that we're just in the same position on D2. He'd be alive, a question mark, and posting without town energy. It just... wouldn't progress the game at all. Unless you just clear him. If you could really make that jump and look at those reasons I gave and say, "yeah, this is just... always a mislynch, given how this Day has gone," then you progress the game and work from there. But if you can't, and I couldn't quite bring myself to (both because I wasn't /sure/ sure, and because this being an easy game would just be too nice given my business to not find out), it just... doesn't make sense not to lynch him unless you want to hear a remix of D1 on D2. It sucks that he was town, but at least it's over and done with and forcing people to either genuinely look elsewhere or fake looking elsewhere. A living town!xequalsy D2 just gives scum cover, again, unless we actually made the jump to clear him.
This isn't, like, a new concept or anything. In fact I'm pretty sure I used this exact same reasoning to lynch DLE in the Wildcard game, which IIRC you read, so like. What gives?
This game isn't a huuuge priority for me because I want to enjoy Other Stuff, but I'd still prefer to win and help my teammates and junk.
x=y has been scummy, he's a pretty consensus scumread. It's too easy, no real alternatives have popped up or been proposed. The complete lack of resistance to this lynch ~probably means he's town. I don't really have the energy to force another wagon --
That's where the narrative splits and gets fuzzy for me. One path leads to a world where you're mafia, the other, town.
In the mafia world, you made that post to look like you're thinking about the game. To sort of distance yourself from a wagon you want to go through anyways. You frame the lynch as an either-or, a black or white: "Either we lynch x=y now or we have to clear him. I don't want to clear him, therefore, lynch." This is the main reason I'm on this path.
In the town world, you wanted to wagon someone else, but felt like it wouldn't work out. And it would probably take waaay too much effort to convince everyone (like Iso) to lynch/wagon someone else.
Overall it's a case of words vs. actions. Your words said "I should move the wagon, or at least my vote," and your actions said "lynch away."
So yeah, the "we have to clear him" thing is all I really want answered. I don't need a lecture on your personal life, I'm already aware you have a song in your soul and a dance in your heart.
Are you saying we couldn't have cleared him based on future actions, reactions, interactions, PR info, wagon info, spew, blah blah blah? Are we lynching people who look scummy, or people who are likely scum? You know how some people are stale on D1 and flare to life as the game goes on.
I don't see a reason why he had to be lynched, full stop. There was no deadline. He only got lynched because he superficially looked bad and was the unfortunate D1 tunnel of Iso. And now I'm kind of kicking myself for not trying to swing the wagon.
Also, I didn't read that game. As if I have the time. I just skimmed your ISO mostly.