A bunch of no votes on what is clearly a scummy proposal isn't too crazy. Town will vote no because it's scummy, scum will vote no to blend in. When did I join the list of people most likely to be scum? I've been asking for cases against me and the best people have put forth is that I'm not clearly town. What makes me scummier than Cantrip or Proph?
I'll say this much, Shadow's play is very different from Barebones. He's much more aggressive in this game.
Why is there an order to voting btw? I'll make it short and sweet: Proph gross, Mindreaver ye, Silver ye, Vaimes ye, Cantrip sure, Osieorb18 meh so vote: no
Your explanation basically says "Osi is definitely scum, D_V put him on a quest, therefore D_V is also scum, therefore one of the other players is scum and the quest will fail." Is that inaccurate? Why is it one of Proph and Cantrip? Couldn't it just as easily be Mindreaver?
You aren't scummier than either of them by behavior (well, maybe Cantrip, but his scum game is really good, so).
The problem is that mechanically there's one scum in (D_V/shadow), one scum in (Proph/Rhand) and three scum in (you/Brinatoo/Terry/Cantrip/maaaaybe Osi). I don't think it's Osi (Please case him if you have time, it will help me read you if nothing else). Without him there's a 75% chance you're scum since only one of the four of you is town. That's, like, super high. I'm not really willing to gamble that one of you/Brin is town, that one selects a good team, and then the team doesn't get voted down when I think this team is good anyway. If it goes to shadow we autolose if he's scum because we have to pass whatever team he proposes.
DV proposed it, and I knew I was going to be leery of anything he proposed because I think there's fair chance that he's scum. But several of my town reads are thinking he's town, so I could be wrong.
Me: Town
Vaimes: 99% Town
Silver: Likely town
Proph & Mindreaver: Fair chance that one of them's scum, but the fail last quest could have been Rhand. Both of them have been making good posts. I don't like that Mind didn't really respond to my last volley and felt like he was changing the subject.
Osie: Had him pegged as scum from the start, but he's continually made better and better posts.
So the quest composition for me really boils down to whether BOTH Osie and one of Proph/Mind are scum.
Next, the votes made thus far:
AG: (No) Have felt like he's more likely town than scum.
Osie: (Yes) He's on the quest, so desire to go is understandable. Iirc, he's had townreads on the players on the quest, so nothing blatantly off. Of course, 979 and subsequent posts seemed really naive...too naive?
Brin: (No) Pretty sure he's scum. Fact that he showed he's not reading the thread by questioning why we have a voting order reinforces that.
Shadow: (No) Shadow started as a strong town read for me, but the way he's reacted after Q2 failed is questionable. Feels like he's getting mad that his "town logic" isn't being swallowed. His logic does sound accurate, but the emotions behind it feel off.
Mind: (Yes) Also on the quest, has been suspicious of DV and Osie, I believe, but is voting yes. Still, I can understand him coming around on Osie, as I'm feeling similarly. He's also explained his position, and it tracks.
Terry: (No) But still probably scum, so that's a good sign.
Proph: (No) I totally see his point, and I also agree that Q3 + towniest player is a good idea.
Silver: (Yes) I can see his points, too, and this feels like exactly what we were looking for when we established the voting order. A large block of players who are generally seen as scummy are voting no, which gives us a better chance at a passing quest than one that gets thumbs up across the board.
Yeah, I think I'm ok with Vote Yes. This may be the towniest quest we can get barring Q3+towniest player. If this quest doesn't run, it's not the end of the world, as even if Brin's proposal doesn't follow the Q3+1 idea, I think AG or Osie can craft something that'll work.
At this point, I believe it takes BOTH of Rhand and Vaimes voting yes to pass the quest. So I think we should have Rhand commit first and then have Vaimes vote only if Rhand votes yes. Objections?
Did you notice how Osi was sure D_V was scum up until Q4 and suddenly he's swapped?
I was inclined to believe that D_V was scum. That does not mean that I had a hard read. I think that reading him town is decently secure at the moment.
@Proph: I hope that I'm correct in reading you as town, and that you reconsider this before Rhand votes no.
Stalling for time to make reads is better for town early game. In the late game, I'm not so confidant. And while I understand the reluctance to take a leap when we're on the edge, this is the crucial make-it-or-break-it point for us.
I don't like that the voting order was decided by Rhand. It should have been someone who we were more certain is town, and most confirmed scum should actually have been at the end, so they can't leap on an incorrect vote by a town member.
@Vaimes: Similarly, I think we're basically removing voting order, vote while you have the chance.
At this point, I believe it takes BOTH of Rhand and Vaimes voting yes to pass the quest. So I think we should have Rhand commit first and then have Vaimes vote only if Rhand votes yes. Objections?
That seems convenient for Rhand. I think it's quite possible that he was trying to remove Silver and Vaimes from the picture by putting himself before them in the voting order. Rhand should have been somewhere in the early middle.
If I have to nominate Q3 + 1, I'm adding you or D_V, depending on who I have a better read on at the time.
Osie has posted a lot of lists/reads without much support or explanation. This is how scum pretend to scumhunt. On top of that, his reads themselves have frequently contradicted his actual actions with no explanation on why that is. His interactions with D_V also come across as scum on scum. Have fun.
Coming on the heels of a Percival claim, why would you fish for other Percivals?
I suppose I can see that. I didn't quite notice the percival claim (A bit of a mafia newb). But I'd say it's not particularly forced to scumread D_V and maybe Rhand.
Jumps on D_V without explaining why. Osie will maintain these two reads without any real explantion.
osie, what specifically makes you think Silver could be scum?
"Nullifies the tells" - This phrase could be innocent, but… Also, trying to obfuscate for town is a decent strat of scum for this game. It's a mixed bag, since they also want to find Merlin, but it's not too extreme. Anyways, these were the points that led to that:
I don't think passing Q1 is super-duper important, actually. Q2 is, though, because if we pass Q1 we can be in a strong position after passing Q2 and if we fail Q1 we're screwed if we fail Q2. Basically, failing Q1 is like mislynching on D1 except we actually get more info - we know there's at least one scum in those three names. So it's not really the end of the world *if* we can figure out which of the three failed the quest.
Also, there are ways of maximizing our data for Q1 before choosing. But talking about them sort of nullifies the tells, which is why I'm not saying anything. Ask me about that in post game, too, if you want.
Also, I like Rhand's choices. I'd probably say Vaimes instead of Cantrip but I'm having a hard time reading Cantrip.
Plus tonereading Vaimes is a poor plan but I'm doing it anyway since he has all of one post worth of content.
Well, I can't pick myself. And it doesn't appear that any team with D_V on it will go through.
Probably Rhand/Mindreaver/Vaimes. Not sold on Vaimes, but it'd be better than sending Osi or Terry. I'd prefer if neither of them went.
What would you think about Rhand/D_V/Vaimes?
Then we get this suggestion out of left field. Osie is scumreading two of these players (stated right before and right after). I don't really buy the explanation that this was a test/trap.
I don't know what Rhand's deal is, but I've been playing a straight town game... Maybe some more emotional decisions than rational, but sitting back seems like the wrong move for town in this game. I will vote against any quest with Rhand or D_V on it.
Rhand points out that Osie has no reason for scum-reading him other than OMGUS and this is Osie's response. No justification for the scum-read, just "I've been playing a straight town game." That's not even "I'm town" it's "I'm playing like town".
Things you accused me of:
* claiming scum (which you simply misread)
* nothing else
Where did that scum read even come from?
You keep repeating it but never add any evidence. And then you go and make conclusions about other people based on my posts. In a bad way.
You didn't merlin-claim early game, you did little to nothing to clear yourself or others, you suggested an actively bad play of intentionally voting no to get Mindreaver nominated... I've seen no sign that you're town beyond other people's reads, for which I have yet to see a reason.
Now Osie decides to go with it being for not claiming merlin. That is pretty flimsy reasoning with how many players didn't claim merlin.
I commented on this post at the time, there is just not much real content here. Osie is just making lists to make lists and reveals that I have now supplanted his stated scum-reads as the new top scum-read, with literally no explanation or even reference to the fact. Osie just keeps adding scum-reads without justifying a single read.
That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
Convenient for you two to say...
Doesn't defend or explain the lack of actual support for his reads.
That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
Convenient for you two to say...
Scumspects for you or not, replying like this doesn't really push the game forward. Also, am I your top townread for any reason other than being Merlin?
You're the only person who has posted a decent amount who hasn't given me any reason to believe that you're not town.
Apparently Osie only has 1 town-read at this point. Why was he posting comprehensive lists of town/scum with a single town-read?
Well, he was scum when I was town in StarTrek MU Mafia IV and every time I cased him the people who play with him a lot just went "he's always like that!"
On the flip side, I thought he was scum in Trigger Happy Havoc Mafia and his final night action won us the game, so... yes?I ~sort of don't want shadow on Q2, but if you guys just want to add Mindreaver and/or Vaimes and see what happens I'd probably vote to pass it. It was just a ton of shade to dump on Terry and seemed weird that he went after him for wording then told him to counterclaim D_V. Could have been a bus, if you know what I'm saying? Terry was already pretty widely scum read. Idk.
I think I'd be ok with AG going. Though if he's town then I've nailed the scum team exactly (Osi/Terry/DK/Brinatoo/Cantrip) or there's scum in [shadow/Vaimes] regardless.
I can tell you that isn't the scum team...
I'd be fine with any of Vaimes, Rhand, or Mindreaver going, as if quest 2 fails by X votes, that player is the difference.
Suddenly fine with Rhand going on a quest. Osie did that earlier with his D_V/Vaimes/Rhand suggestion.
I won't nominate Mindreaver. I now think he's likely scum. In which case he probably nominated scum!shadow to get him cleared for the next quests.
Terry and Osie are still scum, and I think Brinatoo is as well.
If I'm right about Mindreaver, then sending Shadow on the quest would be foolish.
This just seems like scum throwing shade for the purpose of getting a failing team that would provide less information to the town side. Putting a basically random partial number greater than 1 and less than 4 of different people tells us very little if the vote goes bad, unless the scum team trips up majorly and votes all fails, which seems unlikely.
I'd also not be surprised if Rhand is bussing Mindreaver, again to set up a more optimal failing team. Though I think we can still trust Mindreaver enough to check. Or we just do a completely different team. I know I'll always vote for a quest to pass.
Mindreaver, Vaimes, Cantrip, and Brinatoo all seem like fine choices for a fourth person on Q2 with the same starting 3.
4 posts later and back to the status quo in regards to Rhand. Brinatoo added to town reads with no justification when Brinatoo has had very little content (barned D_V against Vaimes, said he'd look for people that do a 180 on their reads, voted Yes on quest 1, and barned the thread for Mindreaver going on Q2). That is apparently town behavior, but Rhand not claiming Merlin was scum behavior? Brinatoo didn't claim Merlin. Osie continues to have no support for his reads.
Cantripmancer feels like he's really trying to figure out this game. I like his early pressure on Osie.
Actually, he kinda just sent out feelers towards the beginning. You were the only person to OMGUS me early for no reason. But I probably was just picked out as a random town target, since you would know that I wasn't scum as a scum member yourself.
Osie is now claiming Rhand's scumread is just OMGUS, when Rhand went after him first. There is no explanation other than "you are scum".
Give a top townread outside of the Q1 group and a little explanation as to why. Pretend the mod confirms that there is one mafia among four players: the Q1 group and your top townread.
Who is mafia and why?
That's quite the question. I'm going to dodge that exact exercise for reasons and rethink a similar exercise that may or may not change my vote: Reads on the first party and Rhand-suggested party.
So I liked Mindreaver's posts throughout as analytical without intentionally throwing information out there for scum or thinking nonrationally. I suppose in that vein, I can see why people scumread me, beyond strategic advantage for scum. His selection process made sense. I was relatively certain on the shadow townread from a tonal perspective. Silver was someone who I was trying to read well from the beginning, and my rather untrained instincts screamed scum to begin with, but looking over his posts, I came to see a lot of that same pattern as Mindreaver. D_V there was and still is a large split on. Throughout the first selection, D_V's posts were questionable, as mentioned by many. I would not be surprised if D_V is scum. That said, I also feel that way on Rhand, which I think most people disagree with me on. But Rhand has mostly been on the defensive since being scumread, and is one of the most active people with OMGUS on me, which I could certainly see being his way of trying to remove me from the picture. So that's the first quest and second selector.
Given that I have a scumread on Rhand, I'm already going into the second quest with a degree of doubt. Now, assuming my previous reads are right, then we have Silver (lean town) / D_V (likely scum) / Vaimes / Cantripmancer. Now, Cantrip is interesting. Cantrip in this page shows how great of a player he is with post 354. Either he is a really solid town player, or it's all a really good double act and he is an even more amazing scum player. But I'm leaning town on that one. Scum has more incentive not to vote No for a quest with themselves in it. So then it comes down to you. Most reads on you appear to be town. If you are town, then a single fail vote would mean D_V just acted up. If you are actually scum, a single fail vote is a nightmare for town, but difficult for scum to coordinate. Two fail votes point to D_V and you over D_V and Cantrip, I think, for the most part. Three or four fail votes is bad for scum.
Meanwhile, if we do the first three plus 1, assuming that my reads are right (Silver (lean town), Shadow (hardlean town), D_V (lean scum)):
1 fail points towards D_V or the new person, probably D_V.
2 fails point towards D_V and the new person, unless the new person is a harder lean town than Silver.
3 fails point towards everyone other than Shadow.
4 fails is bad for scum.
Now, I am the newest person to mafia here, so my reads are probably not as reliable as others who are more used to analyzing this particular style of game, not to mention the large number of scumreads on me. But I'd like to believe that I'm not completely wrong, even if I am still somewhat learning how to play.
Okay, all that out of the way, if Mindreaver, Cantrip, or myself was added to the first group, I'd be surprised if there were two fail votes, and I'd go with Silver and D_V both being scum (both playing it safe the first round because everyone is townreading Shadow). I firmly believe that three or more fail votes would not happen in either of those cases.
Proph mostly agrees with me. Hmm. If this is the town/scum list, it would not surprise me.
Osie likes Mindreaver for doing the exact opposite of what Osie has been doing. Is citing the consensus with regards to D_V, except D_V is generally trusted at this point. Also, this is at direct odds with what he posted just 2 posts ago. It really feels like Osie is playing both sides on D_V. How does OMGUSing Rhand make Rhand scum? Osie continues to not actually justify his read. Apparently Brinatoo has gone to a scum-read now. I wonder why.
You really need to explain that AG and Brinatoo read. It seems to me you just slapped those on by default.
AG's Posts:
* I want to go on a quest with Rhand and Silver. - Dislike.
* "I'm on the D_V side." with no backup. - Dislike.
* Then, goes on the defensive when I scumread him because of process of elimination. - Dislike.
* While going on defensive, he suggests that I'm trying to give info to scum without backing it up in any way. - Dislike.
* Having Percy known is an overall good thing! - Neutral
* Intentionally failing the first proposal accomplishes nothing. - Neutral
* Post 233 - First paragraph is decent, second is useless. Claiming town loosely at that point is meaningless. Dislike.
* D_V should be on every quest since I believe his Percival claim. - Dislike.
* I like Mindreaver - Neutral.
* Asking Rhand for explanation on Mindreaver and Cantrip. - Neutral.
* Let's send D_V, Silver, Shadow on Q2. Noone has a problem with any of them. - Dislike last bit.
* D_V is Percival, therefore he isn't scum. - Dislike.
* Questioning Rhand's response to D_V - Positive.
* Terry, your D_V stance doesn't provide enough information. - Dislike.
* Voting No on quest 2 - Neutral.
* Asking Proph about my stance on Rhand - Interesting.
Rhand was just someone I didn't trust at first, then he solidified in my mind as scum on page 4, especially post 190. Yes, post 190 could just be a scumread, but given that Rhand was not anti-D_V before that point, I think it's most likely mild, possibly unintentional bussing or something worse. He doesn't seem to be getting better… He's posted a decent amount, so I don't necessarily want to do a post-by-post, but even with a positive post here and there, I'm still scumreading him. I'll go over his posts again at least on my own and decide how solid my current read is.
Brinatoo's Posts:
First off, Brinatoo came in on page 5, so there's less info there. So any read on him is going to be lighter.
* His first real post: I'm on D_V's side. Scum and Town both care about X, Y, Z. - Dislike the first part, meh on the second. It is an oversimplification.
* I have no information! If you change your mind on someone, you're scum. - Dislike.
* I'm on D_V's side. Vote yes to test Silver/Shadow. - Dislike the first part. Like the second part, though.
* I like Mindreaver. - Neutral. Though my impression of Mindreaver is dropping.
* I want D_V's opinion on testing Vaimes. - Neutral to Dislike.
* We should do Q1 + 1. - What everyone else has been saying. Neutral.
After reading over the entire thread, my reads on Silver and Mindreaver are both pretty soft. I would suggest:
Shadow/Silver/Vaimes/Mindreaver
as a quest here, which I would be surprised if RSJT can't get behind besides him not liking me.
So first thing that stands out is doing a PBP with just a like/dislike response and no analysis or narrative that explains the posts as being from town or scum. This is how scum make cases. Scum.Proph has done this, Scum.Wheat_Grinder as done this, Scum.Seppel has done this, Scum.Iso has done this (and those are just the ones I remember offhand from games I've played). It's incredibly easy to do and doesn't say much. There are also contradictions such as "* Post 233 - First paragraph is decent, second is useless. Claiming town loosely at that point is meaningless. Dislike." where Osie seems to say it's positive but then dislikes it, which are common among these fake cases. I had been suspicious of Osie before, but this post really drilled the read in. "* We should do Q1 + 1. - What everyone else has been saying. Neutral." this was the post that Osie barned. Just seems really weird that he'd both barn it and call it "what everyone has been saying. Neutral."
Q1 was me/shadow/D_V. I know I'm town, and D_V is ~probably Percy. That leaves shadow as a maybe scum who passed to look good.
Q2 Rhand proposes me/D_V/Cantrip/Vaimes. I "think" Rhand is town, -but- if he's town, either the team is exactly Proph/Brinatoo/AG/Osi/Terry or at least one of Mindreaver/Cantrip/Vaimes/shadow is scum anyway. Which is what led me to thinking I needed to reread because one of Cantrip/Vaimes/shadow was probably scum. I really don't think it's Mindreaver and I doubt that's exactly the team.
But then if one of them is scum, Rhand might be scum, too, trying to sneak one of his semi-townread buddies on the quest. So... I'm basically thinking that Osi/Terry might be town? But that only works if there's two scum in Rhand/Vaimes/Cantrip/shadow. And Proph would still have to be scum too, unless I've botched my math somewhere. Can't prove any of it until a quest fails, but that's basically my tinfoil scenario.
I'm unsure on the first bit of logic given my current thoughts on D_V, and my thoughts on Percival strategy as expressed in my previous post (448). But okay. I do agree with a lot of the rest of your logic. I have strong reason to believe that there are two scum in your "tinfoil scenario" selection.
But anyway. This would normally bring us to an updated read wall but I don't think it's a good idea in this format. But I basically said all that to say that if you want my vote for your quest you better have at least two of me/D_V/Mindreaver on it. Anything else tells me not very much when the quest fails - and it probably will fail without at least two of those names on it. Hell, it will probably fail even with two of us on it, but at least I can be reasonably confident that one of the other two is the failure instead of the crapshoot something like Terry's team gives me.
(I'm doing a pretty good job of pretending to need info, if you don't mind me saying so myself. :P)
I'm perfectly fine with putting two or more of you, D_V, and Mindreaver on a quest.
Yeah, I started leaning away from read walls after thinking about it some, given the potential for information to scum who can be relatively certain that I'm town whether or not they'll admit it.
"D_V is scum" "I'm fine with puting D_V on a quest". He keeps doing it.
And it's still got the problems I expressed with Rhand's proposal.
Yeah, that's my biggest issue at the moment.
With the Shadow/Silver/D_V base, I'd be at least somewhat surprised if scum made more than one fail vote after adding one of:
Mindreaver
Cantripmancer
Rhand
Osieorb18
These three seem risky, but doable.
Prophalaxis
Vaimes
Brinatoo
The first three quests are more risky in general since we have less information and it is easier to fail them. I think we go with a relatively strong town in the fourth slot.
Essentially a scum-claim. Is perfectly fine with 10/12 players going on a quest. Remember when Osie had a ton of scum-reads and 1 town-read? He is now fine with the entire game questing.
Lol. That's hilarious. Osie, does this mean that you think AG is scum (with RSJT)?
I could definitely get behind Q1+Rhand. Q1+Vaimes would be fine, too. Probably Q1+Mindreaver.
I had a post explaining my thoughts on AG and then went to quote something else and screwed it up... Curse Cursed Curse to Cursing!
In essence, AG could have also been on my risky list and is the lightest of scum reads by sheer virtue of position in the lineup of my current reads. If I had an unsure section, Proph, AG, and to some degree D_V would both be in it, at the very least.
If someone could explain why hardclaiming Percival is or can be a good strat for Percival or for the Knights (i.e. not just why it isn't a terrible strat)...
--------
Why Q1+Vaimes? Is that to get a better read on Vaimes or because you think Vaimes is town? If it is because you think Vaimes is town, why do you think that?
Oh hey, he's fine with me too. That maktes it 11/12 players he's fine with going on quests, and I've been on every single scum-list he's had.
So Q2 fails shortly after this. Osie was one of 3 players to consistently stand against D_V (Even though he supported D_V questing), but Osie never really showed any indication of why. Vaimes knew D_V was lying due to be being Percival, and Terry picked up on Vaimes' hints at being Percival, but Osie just seemed to know D_V was scum. Note that Osie is against Vaimes on Q2. Terry was supporting Vaimes while calling D_V scum, but Osie disliked D_V, Vaimes, and even Terry, he doesn't appear to have a reason for dislikng D_V outside of them being scum partners.
Damn. Yeah, we probably mixed our metaphors too much. I'll lay some stuff out. I think I've cleared my own name well enough to do that, and most of this shouldn't bite us in the butt.
As for differences in reads, we can scrap that terminology since I'll just agree with you on Shadow. I'm giving AtheistGod a chance before I lock in D_V as town. Proph is still not definite, but I'm heavily leaning town there.
AtheistGod, D_V: This is your chance to show that you are not Mordred.
I don't have anything to say on this post, it just seems really weird to me.
Q4 (D_V):
No fail in Q3 -- Rhand + Silver + Proph + Osieorb18 + Vaimes + Cantrip
Fail in Q3 -- Rhand + Silver + AG + Osieorb18 + Vaimes + Cantrip
Q5 (AG/Osieorb18) -- (Whoever passed Q4 minus Selector as relevant) + (Doesn't matter)
Highly questionable plan with a whole bunch of information involved but no analysis/justification. Scum can read a lot into this and it doesn't really provide value to the town. Also, I seem to have left the scum pile.
Osi,and slightly Rhand, I don't disagree with most of what you have there. But Explain to be how Proph is in this lock-town block? What has he done to earn a spot there?
His frustration of not having anything to analyse and this while game being a long day 1 is exactly what I expect from town!Proph.
But more so, Osi cleared him.
@Rhand: I've been maintaining a post-by-post readlist on my own with leans scum or town since I stayed up and went post-by-post. It got relatively solidified.
Rhand, Cantrip, Silver, and Vaimes cleared themselves pretty well. Shadow, Mindreaver, Brinatoo, and RSJT are all scum. I think despite all the shade being thrown on me on this last page, I've relatively cleared my name. Proph is looking pretty good, though isn't a definite. I'm still not certain on D_V and AG, but it doesn't matter; Q3 only requires 5/7 town to pass, and if it doesn't pass we can then pass Q4 with 5/7 town. Q5 requires 6/7 town to pass. But at that point we've solidified 6 people.
Here's the thing: Even if for some reason you want to assume my reads are just wrong enough that this will miss either Q4 or Q5 by two votes, you can adjust to remove me from the picture by trusting D_V and AtheistGod. But if I were you, I would not make that adjustment until we've at least tried my proposed Q3. I expect it passes with flying colors, or fails with exactly 1 vote (though I doubt that this will be the case). But heck, let's say you don't trust me. But you probably trust D_V. You can replace me with D_V on Q3.
If it passes, then you can have D_V propose my proposed pass-situation Q4 with AG in place of me.
If there's one fail on Q3, you can replace me in my proposed fail-situation Q4 with D_V.
If there's two fails on Q3, you can also replace Proph with AtheistGod.
On Q5, which we only get to if exactly one of Q3/Q4 fails, you have your 6 town votes be Vaimes, Rhand, Cantrip, Silver, D_V, and whoever you trust most out of Proph and AG. If you don't trust either one of them or me by that point, scum wins.
If necessary, I can go through the entire logic, but I think that this is more than enough explanation. Oh, and I'm Merlin.
So now we get the explanation. I forget where Cantrip was cleared and Mindreaver was declared scum. Osie suggests that we can replace him with D_V on Q3, someone who he is saying he doesn't trust.
AND EVERYONE ELSE IS LIKE... OH COOL OK, HE'S TOWN!!! I AM BEYOND MYSELF. MANY PLAYERS HERE ARE ACTING BASING THEIR THEORIES AND THEIR READS ON A HUGE FALTY PIECE OF INFORMATION. PLEASE GO BACK TO YOUR THEORIES AND ACT LIKE DV IS 100% SCUM AND SEE WHAT THAT DOES TO YOUR READS.
It changes one other read. That's it. Even if D_V is scum, it doesn't clear you, Mindreaver, Brinatoo, or Shadow.
Osie is in the group beliving that D_V and Shadow can be scum together. I don't remember if this will show up again later, but something worth keeping track of.
So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
Okay, so this is mostly a response to AG asking me about Terry.
That said, first off, I want to make a general, alignment-neutral comment about short, agitated, emotional posts (henceforth "SAE posts"). SAE posts are almost always bad for the poster. If you are scumread scum, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are scumread town, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are townread town, SAE posts often hurt the strategy for your team. If you are townread scum, SAE posts will likely eventually come back to bite you when town gets more information, not to mention that it is much easier to slip up when making such a post. These posts also just in general make for a less enjoyable game. For everyone. I'm not about to say that I'm immune to this. And this is also not saying that nobody should joke around or that everyone should be perfect. But I'd like to appeal to everyone's better side, be they town or scum and request that from now on, unless you're trying to label yourself as scum, please attempt to make calm and rational posts, explaining the logic behind your points to what degree you can without leaking sensitive information. It will likely improve this game for everyone.
My response to AG on Terry follows. But one last thing before that…
@Terry (and to some degree anyone else): In the vein of my previous long paragraph, if you are going to respond to this, please think over what you are saying and post a rational explanation. Anything less than that might as well be spam (e.g. "Oh good, AG is scum. Thanks dude."). If you're just going to post saying "Disregard this post because I think Osi is scum," don't do it. It's a waste of space.
@AtheistGod: I'm just going to list some notable posts for my case on Terry from near the beginning until now and my thoughts on them.
Post 50: This post can be relevant, depending on one's read of shadow. In general, this is probably fine.
His strategy posts mostly talk about strategy for both sides, which is not great.
Post 103: As Mindreaver pointed out, intentional passing suggestion right after it was explained to be a bad idea.
Post 122: Eww. This post is pretty vitriolic out of the blue.
Post 125 is not too bad… …but then he continues with a "hard scumread" on D_V? What?
Post 157: Despite his scumread on me at the time, which given how I was playing made sense, Silver's reads/posts have generally been quite decent, and I liked his post 159 explanation of his issues with Terry a lot. Rhand also scumread Terry around this point. When I looked through post-by-post back on page 10, Rhand was one of my top three townreads.
Post 182: The first bit of logic here is bad. Both sides would want to self-nominate.
Post 185: Cantrip is another hard town-read of mine, and he was (and I'm guessing still is) ALSO not a fan of Terry.
Post 191: Why is he so stuck on D_V above everyone else?
This is some mighty fine dedication. And "vetoing ANY quest with ANYONE not in agreement?" That just sounds excessive.
Post 231: All of the last three sentences feel like comments someone who isn't being as careful as they should be as scum would make.
Post 234: This doesn't contribute much, and in context is not a very town post. Also, while reading D_V is hard, it really seems like RSJT has some sort of tunnel vision on D_V, not remotely willing to consider another idea.
Post 271: As mentioned by shadow, this just comes off as throwing shade, especially given the previous pattern. It's not even really notable anymore when he goes ham on D_V, as it goes on the entire game.
Post 301: Rhand was relatively town at this point to anyone who was careful enough on their reads of him. So why doesn't Terry want Rhand picking the quest? Because Rhand had a scumread on Terry?
Post 316: So he takes the idea of throwing shade just after learning it and immediately goes on the defensive against someone actively calling him scum, not just throwing shade.
He doubles down on the bad strategy immediately after being criticized for doubling down on the bad strategy? Why?
Post 358: This seems like whining about people scumreading him, without any visible self-awareness.
Post 360: Why is he asking his strongest scumread's opinion? Does he think he'll get something useful out of that, or just get more people on the D_V train?
Post 370: Cantrip, a positive read, points out that Terry is acting rather scummy.
Post 414: As far as I can tell, this never happened… I'm not sure what these viable other options were anyway.
Post 427: This doesn't really make sense. Though, to be fair, that was basically just Terry drinking some wine that I set in front of him.
Post 428: This post and his next one are actively not constructive in the slightest.
Post 473: Yet another good Cantrip post pointing out issues with Terry.
And then Terry posted a quest (probably intentionally) which failed by 1 vote.
A while later… post 624 (and 625) come out of nowhere to just shout that D_V isn't town.
At this point, he seems pretty clearly a hard scumread. Like, even Shadow, who is reasonably likely also scum, can't believe how over the top Terry's posts are.
Post 711: If he thinks I'm scum, this is signaling. If he thinks I'm town, this post is useless. Also, this is at least the second time that he told me he'd think about something I posted and then didn't do so.
Silver makes fantastic points about Terry's arguments here and here.
Oh, and on a complete tangent which I have touched on a little before:
Soon after post 370 we get to the point where I really started thinking about the game and if I even wanted to continue playing as a heavily scumread town member. The game is pretty much the worst in that position, unless you are there intentionally, given that you're essentially not participating. You'll notice that I decided for a while around this point to post purely with a focus on keeping things running and organized without directly furthering either team beyond a vote (posts 391, post 394, post 396, post 398.) This felt like the best way to step back Post 401 was a shift towards more active analysis, and post 407 was freely acknowledging and apologizing for the prior lack of effort. I'd been wanting to go over everything long before post 475, but that was when I really had the best chance to do so.
In looking over posts for this, my medium-hard scumread on Mindreaver is somewhat lighter than it was. Though he's still the most likely in my book if Q3 fails. Also:
@Mindreaver: Can you explain that post, please? It's not clear where that's coming from without knowing someone's vote, and the most obvious vote you'd know would be your own.
So Osie's case against Terry seems to be primarily about Terry's constant attack of D_V. This seems really strange given how certain Osie was that D_V was scum for most of the game.
Another slight tangent, how is this town? D_V is just going off the conspiracy deep end without actually believing any of it.
It should be pretty obvious why that doesn't work.
Enlighten me.
But I'm not saying scum Vaimes.
Scum team didn't know I was faking my claim. So they assumed I was real. They have their own counter claimer. Who still hasn't shown their face.
Then Vaimes counter claimed and they didn't know what was going on at all.
So...you DIDN'T answer the question. Don't do it now. Only provides perspective to any scum on the quest if you're town or manipulates town on the quest if you're scum. Like I said, the value in you answering that question would have been before the quest successfully went.
What no the question was if it failed who was scum out of the group.
My answer was Rhand.
That was a direct answer. I'm just saying that having one scum isn't the worst.
@D_V: I agree with Silver in believing that you are town. If you still don't trust me, that's on you. But since the next two quests are 2 votes to fail, we can add Cantrip here and then I can add you on the next quest. If you trust me enough to test if I'm right, replace Mindreaver with me and Cantrip. We get nothing from just doing the same quest +1, and I am very certain that it wasn't one of the other quest members. Proph, Rhand, Silver, and Vaimes are all too likely to be town.
Heck, we have our backs to the wall...
If it is within my ability to do so (if 6 people do not vote the same way as each other before me),I will vote NO on any Q4 proposal from D_V other than Proph, Rhand, Silver, Vaimes, Cantrip, Osieorb18.
If it is within my ability to do so (if 6 people do not vote the same way as each other before me),I will vote NO on any Q4 proposal from D_V other than Proph, Rhand, Silver, Vaimes, Cantrip, Osieorb18.
EBWOP: Or Proph, Rhand, Silver, Vaimes, Cantrip, Mindreaver by virtue of playing it safe.
So Osie tells D_V what proposal to send and that he'll vote no to any other proposal. D_V then sends a different proposal, but it does have Osie on it, and Osie supports it.
Unless I'm completely wrong on one of my townreads, I have Mordred figured out.
EBWOP: I mean, I have the scum team figured out.
The comically bad attempt at claiming merlin. Whatever, my case is already finished.
Here's another piece of information to chew on Silver. You said that a consensus about this last quest with 5/12 players being scum should be suspicious. Why isn't a consensus about you being town equally suspicious? They seem to have very similar reasoning for why/why not there would be a consensus with so many scum in the game.
Did you notice how Osi was sure D_V was scum up until Q4 and suddenly he's swapped?
I was inclined to believe that D_V was scum. That does not mean that I had a hard read. I think that reading him town is decently secure at the moment.
A consensus townread on me isn't suspicious because I'm town and it should be so obvious that anyone scum reading me is practically claiming scum (that's how I caught tom in BareBones). Also when people started town reading me the game didn't hinge on my alignment, whereas it does hinge on this quest.
As for your Osi case, I'll have to look at it tomorrow when it's not 3AM and I'm not falling asleep at my keyboard.
I guess it won't do much harm if I unvote for now, hmm?
You really need to explain that AG and Brinatoo read. It seems to me you just slapped those on by default.
AG's Posts:
* I want to go on a quest with Rhand and Silver. - Dislike.
* "I'm on the D_V side." with no backup. - Dislike.
* Then, goes on the defensive when I scumread him because of process of elimination. - Dislike.
* While going on defensive, he suggests that I'm trying to give info to scum without backing it up in any way. - Dislike.
* Having Percy known is an overall good thing! - Neutral
* Intentionally failing the first proposal accomplishes nothing. - Neutral
* Post 233 - First paragraph is decent, second is useless. Claiming town loosely at that point is meaningless. Dislike.
* D_V should be on every quest since I believe his Percival claim. - Dislike.
* I like Mindreaver - Neutral.
* Asking Rhand for explanation on Mindreaver and Cantrip. - Neutral.
* Let's send D_V, Silver, Shadow on Q2. Noone has a problem with any of them. - Dislike last bit.
* D_V is Percival, therefore he isn't scum. - Dislike.
* Questioning Rhand's response to D_V - Positive.
* Terry, your D_V stance doesn't provide enough information. - Dislike.
* Voting No on quest 2 - Neutral.
* Asking Proph about my stance on Rhand - Interesting.
Rhand was just someone I didn't trust at first, then he solidified in my mind as scum on page 4, especially post 190. Yes, post 190 could just be a scumread, but given that Rhand was not anti-D_V before that point, I think it's most likely mild, possibly unintentional bussing or something worse. He doesn't seem to be getting better… He's posted a decent amount, so I don't necessarily want to do a post-by-post, but even with a positive post here and there, I'm still scumreading him. I'll go over his posts again at least on my own and decide how solid my current read is.
Brinatoo's Posts:
First off, Brinatoo came in on page 5, so there's less info there. So any read on him is going to be lighter.
* His first real post: I'm on D_V's side. Scum and Town both care about X, Y, Z. - Dislike the first part, meh on the second. It is an oversimplification.
* I have no information! If you change your mind on someone, you're scum. - Dislike.
* I'm on D_V's side. Vote yes to test Silver/Shadow. - Dislike the first part. Like the second part, though.
* I like Mindreaver. - Neutral. Though my impression of Mindreaver is dropping.
* I want D_V's opinion on testing Vaimes. - Neutral to Dislike.
* We should do Q1 + 1. - What everyone else has been saying. Neutral.
After reading over the entire thread, my reads on Silver and Mindreaver are both pretty soft. I would suggest:
Shadow/Silver/Vaimes/Mindreaver
as a quest here, which I would be surprised if RSJT can't get behind besides him not liking me.
So first thing that stands out is doing a PBP with just a like/dislike response and no analysis or narrative that explains the posts as being from town or scum. This is how scum make cases. Scum.Proph has done this, Scum.Wheat_Grinder as done this, Scum.Seppel has done this, Scum.Iso has done this (and those are just the ones I remember offhand from games I've played). It's incredibly easy to do and doesn't say much. There are also contradictions such as "* Post 233 - First paragraph is decent, second is useless. Claiming town loosely at that point is meaningless. Dislike." where Osie seems to say it's positive but then dislikes it, which are common among these fake cases. I had been suspicious of Osie before, but this post really drilled the read in. "* We should do Q1 + 1. - What everyone else has been saying. Neutral." this was the post that Osie barned. Just seems really weird that he'd both barn it and call it "what everyone has been saying. Neutral."
Q1 was me/shadow/D_V. I know I'm town, and D_V is ~probably Percy. That leaves shadow as a maybe scum who passed to look good.
Q2 Rhand proposes me/D_V/Cantrip/Vaimes. I "think" Rhand is town, -but- if he's town, either the team is exactly Proph/Brinatoo/AG/Osi/Terry or at least one of Mindreaver/Cantrip/Vaimes/shadow is scum anyway. Which is what led me to thinking I needed to reread because one of Cantrip/Vaimes/shadow was probably scum. I really don't think it's Mindreaver and I doubt that's exactly the team.
But then if one of them is scum, Rhand might be scum, too, trying to sneak one of his semi-townread buddies on the quest. So... I'm basically thinking that Osi/Terry might be town? But that only works if there's two scum in Rhand/Vaimes/Cantrip/shadow. And Proph would still have to be scum too, unless I've botched my math somewhere. Can't prove any of it until a quest fails, but that's basically my tinfoil scenario.
I'm unsure on the first bit of logic given my current thoughts on D_V, and my thoughts on Percival strategy as expressed in my previous post (448). But okay. I do agree with a lot of the rest of your logic. I have strong reason to believe that there are two scum in your "tinfoil scenario" selection.
But anyway. This would normally bring us to an updated read wall but I don't think it's a good idea in this format. But I basically said all that to say that if you want my vote for your quest you better have at least two of me/D_V/Mindreaver on it. Anything else tells me not very much when the quest fails - and it probably will fail without at least two of those names on it. Hell, it will probably fail even with two of us on it, but at least I can be reasonably confident that one of the other two is the failure instead of the crapshoot something like Terry's team gives me.
(I'm doing a pretty good job of pretending to need info, if you don't mind me saying so myself. :P)
I'm perfectly fine with putting two or more of you, D_V, and Mindreaver on a quest.
Yeah, I started leaning away from read walls after thinking about it some, given the potential for information to scum who can be relatively certain that I'm town whether or not they'll admit it.
"D_V is scum" "I'm fine with puting D_V on a quest". He keeps doing it.
And it's still got the problems I expressed with Rhand's proposal.
Yeah, that's my biggest issue at the moment.
With the Shadow/Silver/D_V base, I'd be at least somewhat surprised if scum made more than one fail vote after adding one of:
Mindreaver
Cantripmancer
Rhand
Osieorb18
These three seem risky, but doable.
Prophalaxis
Vaimes
Brinatoo
The first three quests are more risky in general since we have less information and it is easier to fail them. I think we go with a relatively strong town in the fourth slot.
Essentially a scum-claim. Is perfectly fine with 10/12 players going on a quest. Remember when Osie had a ton of scum-reads and 1 town-read? He is now fine with the entire game questing.
Lol. That's hilarious. Osie, does this mean that you think AG is scum (with RSJT)?
I could definitely get behind Q1+Rhand. Q1+Vaimes would be fine, too. Probably Q1+Mindreaver.
I had a post explaining my thoughts on AG and then went to quote something else and screwed it up... Curse Cursed Curse to Cursing!
In essence, AG could have also been on my risky list and is the lightest of scum reads by sheer virtue of position in the lineup of my current reads. If I had an unsure section, Proph, AG, and to some degree D_V would both be in it, at the very least.
If someone could explain why hardclaiming Percival is or can be a good strat for Percival or for the Knights (i.e. not just why it isn't a terrible strat)...
--------
Why Q1+Vaimes? Is that to get a better read on Vaimes or because you think Vaimes is town? If it is because you think Vaimes is town, why do you think that?
Oh hey, he's fine with me too. That makes it 11/12 players he's fine with going on quests, and I've been on every single scum-list he's had.
So Q2 fails shortly after this. Osie was one of 3 players to consistently stand against D_V (Even though he supported D_V questing), but Osie never really showed any indication of why. Vaimes knew D_V was lying due to be being Percival, and Terry picked up on Vaimes' hints at being Percival, but Osie just seemed to know D_V was scum. Note that Osie is against Vaimes on Q2. Terry was supporting Vaimes while calling D_V scum, but Osie disliked D_V, Vaimes, and even Terry, he doesn't appear to have a reason for dislikng D_V outside of them being scum partners.
It's unbelievable to me that so many people seem to think I'm scum but everyone just went with a voting order that I proposed.
I know there is at least 1 scum on this quest, since I'm not on it, and scum!DV won't propose a winning group. And the fail vote from Q3 is still there.
The question is... did DV manage to find the other two town to replace me with? Or is he scum that crafted a losing group?
I've got a doctor's appointment soon. I'm going to dig into this after that.
Q3 was Rhand, Proph, Mind, Silver, Vaimes and gave 1 fail.
That means that Prophylaxis, Mindreaver, Silvercrys3467, Vaimes = 1 fail (Proph or Mind)
So Cantrip AND Osi have to be town for this quest to work.
Voted no: AG / Brinatoo / shadow / Terry / Proph
Voted yes: (DV) / Osi / Mind / Silver / Cantrip
No vote yet: me / Vaimes
All yes-voters are on the quest.
Of the no-voters, only Proph is on the quest.
Assumption: the quest will pass (meaning Cantrip and Osi are town)
Scum must stop this quest at all cost, or Q5 will become too easy.
That means that all 5 scum will have voted no. Is that possible?
Let’s look at the gamestate:
Vaimes – town: no vote yet
Silver – town: vote yes (and unvoted)
Q2 dichotomy Shadow vs DV: 1 no, 1 yes
Q3 dichotomy Proph vs Mind: 1 no, 1 yes
Everyone else: AG, Brinatoo, Terry, Osi, Cantrip: 3 no, 2 yes
So it is possible within our dichotomies that all scum are trying to stop the quest from happening.
Assumption: the quest will fail (meaning one of Cantrip and Osi is scum)
Scum wants to pass this quest and win. But they can blend in with some no votes, since unvoting is possible, so as long as the no vote isn’t hammered, they can hammer the yes. The highest the yes has been is at 4 votes, and now it’s at 3, so it would’ve required coordination to hammer it and it had to be fast between Cantrip voting and Silver unvoting.
Which means everything is still possible in this scenario.
That didn’t help.
On to the votes and everything happening during the voting:
PROPOSAL:
* DV: Proposing a quest that is not Q3+1 feels wrong. I know DV had announced beforehand that he thought it would be me if the quest fails, and he takes me out, so that makes sense from a town perspective. But still I think it’s fishy. It’s a lot safer to add only 1 unknown than 2. I don’t trust DV.
NO:
* AG: very quick vote, forgetting the vote order. His carelessness with that vote looks good for him. From a scum mindset, if this quest would win it for town, his quickness to vote no makes no sense.
Conclusion: I think this vote makes AG town.
* Brinatoo: He’s very disconnected from the game. His vote is a bit icky with the “Proph gross” remark, while in his post before that he said that “Rhand or Proph” failed that quest. I would think that he put his highest suspect first there, ergo me, and would be a bit more reserved about Proph.
Anyways, a disconnect in lylo is highly suspect.
Conclusion: Likely scum
* shadow: he assumes we can run Q4 again as Q5 and win if Q4 passes, which is obviously not the case as DV can’t nominate again. That assumption makes him more likely town than scum: scum would have thought this through (I think)
He votes without real reasoning, but since DV proposed the group, town!him should auto-no this one.
Conclusion: likely town
* Terry: His reasoning for voting no is completely sound.
* Proph: I was reading Proph as town because his frustration of not being able to analyse stuff is what town!Proph would indeed be frustrated for. But now I think that’s all fake. There is stuff to analyse now and he’s not doing it. He doesn’t deliver the content he promises.
At the time he voted no, there were already a lot of no votes. It looked like the quest had no chance of passing.
Conclusion: Proph is probably scum.
YES:
* Osie: from a town perspective, he knows either me or Mind or Proph has to be scum. Replacing me for him is not a bad deal in that case, and then Cantrip is added on whom he has a town read. If he were town, Q3 + him would be even better, but I can follow a yes vote here.
From a scum perspective, he knows that the Q3 fail vote is still there. Adding him wins the game for scum.
Conclusion: he can be both alignments with this vote.
* Mind: I really don’t know. He thinks I am scum, so removing me from Q3 looks good in his eyes, and from his POV from a town mindset, I can imagine that replacing me for Cantrip + Osi won’t give more than 1 fail vote.
However, since the Q3 fail vote is still in the group, scum!him will want to pass this as well.
Conclusion: no idea.
* Silver: I’m assuming Silver is town.
* Cantrip: What Silver says is correct. It makes no sense at all to not accept Q2 with Silver/DV/Vaimes/Cantrip but accept it with Silver/DV/Vaimes/shadow. I think Cantrip was avoiding the double fail vote there and therefor accepted town!shadow.
On top of that, Cantrip’s reasoning was that he wanted Q1+1, but now he wanted Q3+1 and does accept.
Also, Cantrip keeps repeating that he thinks I’m town, but votes yes on a proposal where DV cuts me out of the Q3 group.
Conclusion: I think Cantrip is scum. (and I’m happy DV didn’t propose Q3 + Cantrip)
General conclusion after this voting:
Town:
Me
Vaimes
Silver (yes)
Probably town:
AG (no)
Terry (no)
Shadow (no)
Mind (because of Proph) (yes)
Meh, your proposed order wasn't terrible. I could have spent a day arguing over my placement VS yours, but that would have been a waste of time, IMHO.
If I had to take one thing from it though, is probably that the easiest/most obvious scum group (shadow/rhand/brin/osi/terry) isn't right; and we have a deeper scum later on your list.
Before someone calls me scum for looking at people's reads, I've been tonereading, looking at reads, looking at votes, and more. I've been analyzing everybody in as many ways as I can for at least the second half of this game. So that's not a real argument.
Based on most recently declared reads or leans (Vaimes doesn't really have much here), the order for voting, sorted based primarily on town reads, would be (conveniently matching my reads):
Before someone calls me scum for looking at people's reads, I've been tonereading, looking at reads, looking at votes, and more. I've been analyzing everybody in as many ways as I can for at least the second half of this game. So that's not a real argument.
Based on most recently declared reads or leans (Vaimes doesn't really have much here), the order for voting, sorted based primarily on town reads, would be (conveniently matching my reads):
Another aspect of Osie's scumminess I was just reminded of. Scum love to use the consensus reads and throw together lists of who is generally considered scum and draw up lines of play on them without relying on their own reads. They get to look busy while defending themselves from questions with "But this is the opinion of everyone, not me". Many of Osie's posts read exactly like Voxx's did in Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Destiny Mafia.
Before someone calls me scum for looking at people's reads, I've been tonereading, looking at reads, looking at votes, and more. I've been analyzing everybody in as many ways as I can for at least the second half of this game. So that's not a real argument.
Based on most recently declared reads or leans (Vaimes doesn't really have much here), the order for voting, sorted based primarily on town reads, would be (conveniently matching my reads):
Another aspect of Osie's scumminess I was just reminded of. Scum love to use the consensus reads and throw together lists of who is generally considered scum and draw up lines of play on them without relying on their own reads. They get to look busy while defending themselves from questions with "But this is the opinion of everyone, not me". Many of Osie's posts read exactly like Voxx's did in Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Destiny Mafia.
I drew that up entirely in response to Rhand's idea of a Scum-to-Town Vote Order list, before either me or Rhand commented that it didn't make sense that his list was accepted since he's not particularly townread.
What have I been doing for analysis? Tonereading and logic analysis post-by-post of each person. As I pretty much explicitly mentioned in post 475, and showed examples of in other posts. And you did the same thing in your post 1058. Except when I did it, I started with a lack of preconception. No assumption that anyone was one alignment or the other. (Well, maybe a little for Terry, but...) When you did it, you appeared to start off of the assumption that I was scum and focus on the first half of the game, skimming over or reinterpreting what I was actually expressing, especially in posts 407, 475, and 823, to name a few. 823 puts those all together:
Soon after post 370 we get to the point where I really started thinking about the game and if I even wanted to continue playing as a heavily scumread town member. The game is pretty much the worst in that position, unless you are there intentionally, given that you're essentially not participating. You'll notice that I decided for a while around this point to post purely with a focus on keeping things running and organized without directly furthering either team beyond a vote (posts 391, post 394, post 396, post 398.) This felt like the best way to step back Post 401 was a shift towards more active analysis, and post 407 was freely acknowledging and apologizing for the prior lack of effort. I'd been wanting to go over everything long before post 475, but that was when I really had the best chance to do so.
Your comments on those posts in particular?
407:
Nothing to quote. You've made no comment here in your case.
So Osie's case against Terry seems to be primarily about Terry's constant attack of D_V. This seems really strange given how certain Osie was that D_V was scum for most of the game.
You're in essence cherry-picking what you can rework to fit a specific point of view in making this case.
The moment I saw how the case was structured I knew it was cherry picked.
The fact that anyone is giving it credence at all makes me worried about the one read that was considering it.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm vla till Monday, been trying to keep up, but not a lot of time to post. I'm not hopeful we'll get much better from the Brin proposal either, but we'll see
Okay, so I've been mulling some stuff over in my head, and I've made some assumptions on this game that don't fit with my current world view.
I'd specifically like to ask that Mindreaver, AG, and Terry read through silver and tell me if there's a chance that he's our Mordred. Because if he is, that means DV is town, and there are some things that still make sense to me.
@AG: Do you not think scum!osi would be more careful who he is scum reading/who he says can quest? That's most of your argument in the "important things" post you made. Like, why couldn't he have been saying that he had some nulls and was fine with them questing because he couldn't sort them either way? That said, the full case isn't terrible. I'll mull this over a bit because if Osi is scum my view of the game is completely twisted.
I'm going to pointedly ignore shadow's "What if Silver is Mordred?"
I... don't think there's really much else to say I haven't said already. Mostly waiting for Brin to propose I guess.
I don't see why scum must be perfect. I don't see town constantly suggesting quests with their scum-reads on them. I also don't see town describing their 2nd strongest scum read with "In essence, AG could have also been on my risky list and is the lightest of scum reads by sheer virtue of position in the lineup of my current reads. If I had an unsure section, Proph, AG, and to some degree D_V would both be in it, at the very least." Town could have a large set of null reads, but they wouldn't be fine with the slight scum reads in that pile questing. Osie's response to getting called out on only having 2 people he wasn't fine with questing, was to move me to his "fine with questing" pile. How is that a town reaction to getting called out by your scumread? If I had 1 scum read, 4 nulls, and 4 town reads in a pile that has 5 scum and I need to find 1 town, I'm not fine with those null reads. Town can't afford their scumreads going on quests, scum don't care about stopping anyone from questing; they just want to get 1 or 2 scum on the quest.
I'd specifically like to ask that Mindreaver, AG, and Terry read through silver and tell me if there's a chance that he's our Mordred. Because if he is, that means DV is town, and there are some things that still make sense to me.
Town could have a large set of null reads, but they wouldn't be fine with the slight scum reads in that pile questing.
This is objectively wrong. Slight reads can easily be people who you want more information from. So putting them in a pile of risky people who could still go on a quest is not unreasonable.
You also still haven't responded to the point below. Do you even have a response? Because it honestly appears that you decided on a strong read early game and then are just sticking with it now without thinking about it.
When you did it, you appeared to start off of the assumption that I was scum and focus on the first half of the game, skimming over or reinterpreting what I was actually expressing, especially in posts 407, 475, and 823, to name a few. 823 puts those all together:
Soon after post 370 we get to the point where I really started thinking about the game and if I even wanted to continue playing as a heavily scumread town member. The game is pretty much the worst in that position, unless you are there intentionally, given that you're essentially not participating. You'll notice that I decided for a while around this point to post purely with a focus on keeping things running and organized without directly furthering either team beyond a vote (posts 391, post 394, post 396, post 398.) This felt like the best way to step back Post 401 was a shift towards more active analysis, and post 407 was freely acknowledging and apologizing for the prior lack of effort. I'd been wanting to go over everything long before post 475, but that was when I really had the best chance to do so.
Your comments on those posts in particular?
407:
Nothing to quote. You've made no comment here in your case.
So Osie's case against Terry seems to be primarily about Terry's constant attack of D_V. This seems really strange given how certain Osie was that D_V was scum for most of the game.
You're in essence cherry-picking what you can rework to fit a specific point of view in making this case.
Town could have a large set of null reads, but they wouldn't be fine with the slight scum reads in that pile questing.
This is objectively wrong. Slight reads can easily be people who you want more information from. So putting them in a pile of risky people who could still go on a quest is not unreasonable.
You also still haven't responded to the point below. Do you even have a response? Because it honestly appears that you decided on a strong read early game and then are just sticking with it now without thinking about it.
When you did it, you appeared to start off of the assumption that I was scum and focus on the first half of the game, skimming over or reinterpreting what I was actually expressing, especially in posts 407, 475, and 823, to name a few. 823 puts those all together:
Soon after post 370 we get to the point where I really started thinking about the game and if I even wanted to continue playing as a heavily scumread town member. The game is pretty much the worst in that position, unless you are there intentionally, given that you're essentially not participating. You'll notice that I decided for a while around this point to post purely with a focus on keeping things running and organized without directly furthering either team beyond a vote (posts 391, post 394, post 396, post 398.) This felt like the best way to step back Post 401 was a shift towards more active analysis, and post 407 was freely acknowledging and apologizing for the prior lack of effort. I'd been wanting to go over everything long before post 475, but that was when I really had the best chance to do so.
Your comments on those posts in particular?
407:
Nothing to quote. You've made no comment here in your case.
So Osie's case against Terry seems to be primarily about Terry's constant attack of D_V. This seems really strange given how certain Osie was that D_V was scum for most of the game.
You're in essence cherry-picking what you can rework to fit a specific point of view in making this case.
Ah, I didn't hit submit on my response. What about those posts disproves that you kept putting your scum-reads on potential quests? Where is the explanation for why you wouldn't justify your reads? Where is the explanation for why you scumread D_V without really disputing his Percival claim, but have now taken to calling him town only after it comes out as a false claim but some town members still townread him? What about those posts disputes that you have posted a lot of low-content lists filled with "this is the town's view". I didn't address those posts because they weren't part of the explanation on why you are scum. If you think they disprove my arguments, explain why. Making posts that don't themselves prove your scumminess isn't an argument.
Okay, so I've been mulling some stuff over in my head, and I've made some assumptions on this game that don't fit with my current world view.
I'd specifically like to ask that Mindreaver, AG, and Terry read through silver and tell me if there's a chance that he's our Mordred. Because if he is, that means DV is town, and there are some things that still make sense to me.
I'll do a deeper reread later, but I didn't find anything even questionable in a quick skim of a bunch of his posts. He hasn't confirmed himself as town, but I haven't found anything in his posts to indicate that he's scum.
I'll be taking until tomorrow to make a fair proposal. I'll spoil some things that likely won't change- mind/vaimes/silver not being taken out of my quest proposal and proph/dv/shadow being put on it. So it really just comes down to 3 of remaining 5.
What about those posts disproves that you kept putting your scum-reads on potential quests?
"putting your scum-reads on potential quests" is a point you have been trying to drill into people's minds for a while now. That point is predicated on a false premise. Asking people what they thought of hypothetical quest selections is not suggesting that a quest be done with that selection.
As for those particular posts and how it relates to that point: Everything before post 475 can be discarded in making a read on me. I might as well have been throwing out "I like pandas" as every post before that point. If you start from post 475 with no bias as to whether I'm town or scum, looking at each post without an arbitrary bias ahead of time, do you still have nearly as solid of a case that I've
I mean, it seriously looks like I've your hardest scumread for as long as you could manage, without you paying any attention to the content of my posts in the entire second half of the game.
Where is the explanation for why you scumread D_V without really disputing his Percival claim, but have now taken to calling him town only after it comes out as a false claim but some town members still townread him?
I scumread D_V because I didn't believe his Percival claim. He wasn't posting well. Then it came out as a false claim, and he admitted that he made a mistake. It would be hypocritical of me not to take that into account. I don't have a hard townread on D_V even now, but his activity since Vaimes' counter claim, and even some before that, looks much townier than any of my current scumreads, light or hard. You can see I didn't have a hard scumread on D_V in post 637.
On a related point, because you've commented on flipping reads, 823 also had the point that I became much less sure on Mindreaver. You can see the logical progression from leaning scum to unsure, possibly town with that as a midpoint. This is one of many reads where I've been analyzing posts and thought about it without assuming that I had to be right on a read from the beginning. Can you say the same on your read on me? It really doesn't look like it.
What about those posts disputes that you have posted a lot of low-content lists filled with "this is the town's view".
Which lists after post 475?
I posted a bit of a list in post 482 saying that I was leaning town on Mindreaver, Rhand, and Cantrip, and unsure on Proph, Vaimes, and Brinatoo. I was leaning scum on both Brinatoo and you at that point, and was more interested in testing Brinatoo than you.
In post 662, I posted a partial list of sorts saying I was leaning town on Rhand, Cantrip, Silver, and Vaimes, and leaning scum Shadow, Mindreaver, Brinatoo, and RSJT, with light or unsure reads on Proph, D_V, and you. I will admit there wasn't a lot of explanation there, but the time to ask for explanation was then, not now. Instead, you just threw shade on me by agreeing with a Mindreaver post predicated on the idea of me being scum.
In post 889, I posted a list based on the declared reads of people, which could be used to determine voting order. That was a less exact version of the later list I posted in post 1070.
In post 933, I posted a list of Shadow's declared reads, since he was reading 8 people as town and I disagreed with a lot of his reads. Shadow had been showing somewhat scummy behavior before that point, as Silver and I both commented on. Should I be explaining someone else's declared reads?
In 977/979, I listed Rhand/Shadow/AG/Brinatoo/Terry as scum and Proph, Mindreaver, Silver, Vaimes, Cantrip, D_V as town. I've made it clear that Rhand is the uncertain point for me on the scum team, and Proph, Mindreaver, and D_V are all not 100% certain townreads.
In post 1070, as mentioned, I posted a list based on people's declared reads, which could be used to determine voting order. Your response to this was to accuse me of using that list for my reads, a list which I didn't even draw up until AFTER Rhand's voting order post, post 879.
I didn't address those posts because they weren't part of the explanation on why you are scum. If you think they disprove my arguments, explain why. Making posts that don't themselves prove your scumminess isn't an argument.
It's really hard not to read this in the context of the rest of your posts as anything other than "You're my hardest scumread, I don't want to think about anything you post that could indicate you as town. Townie posts are irrelevant to my reads." And that last piece is the crucial point. Townie posts appear irrelevant to your reads. Why should anyone trust you if that is the case?
This most recent vote was almost funny to watch. First you, Terry, and shadow scumbuddied up for page upon page, then you three, Brinatoo, and Rhand all voted certain nos, along with Proph who wasn't sure. That's a beautifully identifiable pattern of you five as scum.
Townie posts aren't irrelevant to my reads, you just haven't made them. There is a difference between "not-scummy" and "townie". Yes I focused on your scummy posts, I was posting a scum case. I didn't have to go post-by-post trying to figure out whether you were scum or not, I already did that while you posted them. I'm just pointing out the scumminess for silver and Mindreaver to see.
"putting your scum-reads on potential quests" is a point you have been trying to drill into people's minds for a while now. That point is predicated on a false premise. Asking people what they thought of hypothetical quest selections is not suggesting that a quest be done with that selection.
Where is the analysis based on these tests? If you were testing people by putting scum on potential quests, where did you analyze their reactions?
As for those particular posts and how it relates to that point: Everything before post 475 can be discarded in making a read on me. I might as well have been throwing out "I like pandas" as every post before that point. If you start from post 475 with no bias as to whether I'm town or scum, looking at each post without an arbitrary bias ahead of time, do you still have nearly as solid of a case that I've
Your alignment didn't change in 475. Also, 482 is a huge scum-flag without any prior information.
This most recent vote was almost funny to watch. First you, Terry, and shadow scumbuddied up for page upon page, then you three, Brinatoo, and Rhand all voted certain nos, along with Proph who wasn't sure. That's a beautifully identifiable pattern of you five as scum.
I won't nominate Mindreaver. I now think he's likely scum. In which case he probably nominated scum!shadow to get him cleared for the next quests.
Terry and Osie are still scum, and I think Brinatoo is as well.
If I'm right about Mindreaver, then sending Shadow on the quest would be foolish.
Why would scum.Rhand propose a quest group without a single scum buddy on it? It's not like he, shadow, or I were really under that much suspicion. You think he removed his buddy who was on Q1 for 2 town on Q2?
I'll be taking until tomorrow to make a fair proposal. I'll spoil some things that likely won't change- mind/vaimes/silver not being taken out of my quest proposal and proph/dv/shadow being put on it. So it really just comes down to 3 of remaining 5.
I'd specifically like to ask that Mindreaver, AG, and Terry read through silver and tell me if there's a chance that he's our Mordred. Because if he is, that means DV is town, and there are some things that still make sense to me.
It wasn't pointed at you anyway...
That's not really fair, as it was throwing shade on him.
-------
On a separate point, post 1096 is AG trying to information-gather for scum. Any response I could make to it would give scum more information than town. If AG wants to engage on a more real front, which I'm guessing he doesn't, given post 1059, his cherry-picking, and his scumminess throughout, he can, but 1096 is not productive conversation for town. AG's case on me is clearly cherry-picked with loads of misinterpretation. There are very few town aspects to AG's behavior or reads.
I may be new to this game and have posted naively for that reason, but I'm not so naive as to be suckered in by that sort of bait.
A consensus townread on me isn't suspicious because I'm town and it should be so obvious that anyone scum reading me is practically claiming scum (that's how I caught tom in BareBones). Also when people started town reading me the game didn't hinge on my alignment, whereas it does hinge on this quest.
In that vein two people (as of this moment) who have declared they think you might be scum: AG and Shadow.
I'd specifically like to ask that Mindreaver, AG, and Terry read through silver and tell me if there's a chance that he's our Mordred. Because if he is, that means DV is town, and there are some things that still make sense to me.
It wasn't pointed at you anyway...
That's not really fair, as it was throwing shade on him.
A consensus townread on me isn't suspicious because I'm town and it should be so obvious that anyone scum reading me is practically claiming scum (that's how I caught tom in BareBones). Also when people started town reading me the game didn't hinge on my alignment, whereas it does hinge on this quest.
In that vein two people (as of this moment) who have declared they think you might be scum: AG and Shadow.
I have been. Saying I think silver has a chance at being scum once quest 2, and and being so obviously town doesn't make someone town anyway.
EBWODP: If you have something you can point to about silver, that'd make it easier.
I really don't. My problem is I've been making an assumption about this game that cannot be true with silver being town. So I'm trying to reconsider that assumption, but it's tricky.
I'll say this much, Shadow's play is very different from Barebones. He's much more aggressive in this game.
What makes Proph gross?
You aren't scummier than either of them by behavior (well, maybe Cantrip, but his scum game is really good, so).
The problem is that mechanically there's one scum in (D_V/shadow), one scum in (Proph/Rhand) and three scum in (you/Brinatoo/Terry/Cantrip/maaaaybe Osi). I don't think it's Osi (Please case him if you have time, it will help me read you if nothing else). Without him there's a 75% chance you're scum since only one of the four of you is town. That's, like, super high. I'm not really willing to gamble that one of you/Brin is town, that one selects a good team, and then the team doesn't get voted down when I think this team is good anyway. If it goes to shadow we autolose if he's scum because we have to pass whatever team he proposes.
DV proposed it, and I knew I was going to be leery of anything he proposed because I think there's fair chance that he's scum. But several of my town reads are thinking he's town, so I could be wrong.
Me: Town
Vaimes: 99% Town
Silver: Likely town
Proph & Mindreaver: Fair chance that one of them's scum, but the fail last quest could have been Rhand. Both of them have been making good posts. I don't like that Mind didn't really respond to my last volley and felt like he was changing the subject.
Osie: Had him pegged as scum from the start, but he's continually made better and better posts.
So the quest composition for me really boils down to whether BOTH Osie and one of Proph/Mind are scum.
Next, the votes made thus far:
AG: (No) Have felt like he's more likely town than scum.
Osie: (Yes) He's on the quest, so desire to go is understandable. Iirc, he's had townreads on the players on the quest, so nothing blatantly off. Of course, 979 and subsequent posts seemed really naive...too naive?
Brin: (No) Pretty sure he's scum. Fact that he showed he's not reading the thread by questioning why we have a voting order reinforces that.
Shadow: (No) Shadow started as a strong town read for me, but the way he's reacted after Q2 failed is questionable. Feels like he's getting mad that his "town logic" isn't being swallowed. His logic does sound accurate, but the emotions behind it feel off.
Mind: (Yes) Also on the quest, has been suspicious of DV and Osie, I believe, but is voting yes. Still, I can understand him coming around on Osie, as I'm feeling similarly. He's also explained his position, and it tracks.
Terry: (No) But still probably scum, so that's a good sign.
Proph: (No) I totally see his point, and I also agree that Q3 + towniest player is a good idea.
Silver: (Yes) I can see his points, too, and this feels like exactly what we were looking for when we established the voting order. A large block of players who are generally seen as scummy are voting no, which gives us a better chance at a passing quest than one that gets thumbs up across the board.
Yeah, I think I'm ok with Vote Yes. This may be the towniest quest we can get barring Q3+towniest player. If this quest doesn't run, it's not the end of the world, as even if Brin's proposal doesn't follow the Q3+1 idea, I think AG or Osie can craft something that'll work.
At this point, I believe it takes BOTH of Rhand and Vaimes voting yes to pass the quest. So I think we should have Rhand commit first and then have Vaimes vote only if Rhand votes yes. Objections?
I was inclined to believe that D_V was scum. That does not mean that I had a hard read. I think that reading him town is decently secure at the moment.
I'm going to call you on this, because it very much looks like you hope that noone does.
Stalling for time to make reads is better for town early game. In the late game, I'm not so confidant. And while I understand the reluctance to take a leap when we're on the edge, this is the crucial make-it-or-break-it point for us.
I don't like that the voting order was decided by Rhand. It should have been someone who we were more certain is town, and most confirmed scum should actually have been at the end, so they can't leap on an incorrect vote by a town member.
@Vaimes: Similarly, I think we're basically removing voting order, vote while you have the chance.
That seems convenient for Rhand. I think it's quite possible that he was trying to remove Silver and Vaimes from the picture by putting himself before them in the voting order. Rhand should have been somewhere in the early middle.
If I have to nominate Q3 + 1, I'm adding you or D_V, depending on who I have a better read on at the time.
Jumps on Rhand for "not not not scum". Osie continues this scum-read without ever really justifying.
Jumps on D_V without explaining why. Osie will maintain these two reads without any real explantion.
So Silver is added to scum pile for the dastardly deed of town-reading Rhand and D_V.
Then we get this suggestion out of left field. Osie is scumreading two of these players (stated right before and right after). I don't really buy the explanation that this was a test/trap.
Rhand points out that Osie has no reason for scum-reading him other than OMGUS and this is Osie's response. No justification for the scum-read, just "I've been playing a straight town game." That's not even "I'm town" it's "I'm playing like town".
Now Osie decides to go with it being for not claiming merlin. That is pretty flimsy reasoning with how many players didn't claim merlin.
I commented on this post at the time, there is just not much real content here. Osie is just making lists to make lists and reveals that I have now supplanted his stated scum-reads as the new top scum-read, with literally no explanation or even reference to the fact. Osie just keeps adding scum-reads without justifying a single read.
Doesn't defend or explain the lack of actual support for his reads.
Apparently Osie only has 1 town-read at this point. Why was he posting comprehensive lists of town/scum with a single town-read?
Suddenly fine with Rhand going on a quest. Osie did that earlier with his D_V/Vaimes/Rhand suggestion.
4 posts later and back to the status quo in regards to Rhand. Brinatoo added to town reads with no justification when Brinatoo has had very little content (barned D_V against Vaimes, said he'd look for people that do a 180 on their reads, voted Yes on quest 1, and barned the thread for Mindreaver going on Q2). That is apparently town behavior, but Rhand not claiming Merlin was scum behavior? Brinatoo didn't claim Merlin. Osie continues to have no support for his reads.
Osie is now claiming Rhand's scumread is just OMGUS, when Rhand went after him first. There is no explanation other than "you are scum".
I continue to be on the top of Osie's scumreads without an explanation.
Seems to agree with Brinatoo and wants D_V on the quest, even though Osie keeps saying he's anti-D_V.
Osie likes Mindreaver for doing the exact opposite of what Osie has been doing. Is citing the consensus with regards to D_V, except D_V is generally trusted at this point. Also, this is at direct odds with what he posted just 2 posts ago. It really feels like Osie is playing both sides on D_V. How does OMGUSing Rhand make Rhand scum? Osie continues to not actually justify his read. Apparently Brinatoo has gone to a scum-read now. I wonder why.
So first thing that stands out is doing a PBP with just a like/dislike response and no analysis or narrative that explains the posts as being from town or scum. This is how scum make cases. Scum.Proph has done this, Scum.Wheat_Grinder as done this, Scum.Seppel has done this, Scum.Iso has done this (and those are just the ones I remember offhand from games I've played). It's incredibly easy to do and doesn't say much. There are also contradictions such as "* Post 233 - First paragraph is decent, second is useless. Claiming town loosely at that point is meaningless. Dislike." where Osie seems to say it's positive but then dislikes it, which are common among these fake cases. I had been suspicious of Osie before, but this post really drilled the read in. "* We should do Q1 + 1. - What everyone else has been saying. Neutral." this was the post that Osie barned. Just seems really weird that he'd both barn it and call it "what everyone has been saying. Neutral."
"D_V is scum" "I'm fine with puting D_V on a quest". He keeps doing it.
Gives up the Rhand push, likes D_V.
Essentially a scum-claim. Is perfectly fine with 10/12 players going on a quest. Remember when Osie had a ton of scum-reads and 1 town-read? He is now fine with the entire game questing.
Oh hey, he's fine with me too. That maktes it 11/12 players he's fine with going on quests, and I've been on every single scum-list he's had.
So Q2 fails shortly after this. Osie was one of 3 players to consistently stand against D_V (Even though he supported D_V questing), but Osie never really showed any indication of why. Vaimes knew D_V was lying due to be being Percival, and Terry picked up on Vaimes' hints at being Percival, but Osie just seemed to know D_V was scum. Note that Osie is against Vaimes on Q2. Terry was supporting Vaimes while calling D_V scum, but Osie disliked D_V, Vaimes, and even Terry, he doesn't appear to have a reason for dislikng D_V outside of them being scum partners.
I don't have anything to say on this post, it just seems really weird to me.
Highly questionable plan with a whole bunch of information involved but no analysis/justification. Scum can read a lot into this and it doesn't really provide value to the town. Also, I seem to have left the scum pile.
So now we get the explanation. I forget where Cantrip was cleared and Mindreaver was declared scum. Osie suggests that we can replace him with D_V on Q3, someone who he is saying he doesn't trust.
Osie is in the group beliving that D_V and Shadow can be scum together. I don't remember if this will show up again later, but something worth keeping track of.
So why did D_V propose a group with Osie on it?
D_V continuing to say Osie is scum.
So Osie's case against Terry seems to be primarily about Terry's constant attack of D_V. This seems really strange given how certain Osie was that D_V was scum for most of the game.
Another slight tangent, how is this town? D_V is just going off the conspiracy deep end without actually believing any of it.
So Osie tells D_V what proposal to send and that he'll vote no to any other proposal. D_V then sends a different proposal, but it does have Osie on it, and Osie supports it.
The comically bad attempt at claiming merlin. Whatever, my case is already finished.
Here's another piece of information to chew on Silver. You said that a consensus about this last quest with 5/12 players being scum should be suspicious. Why isn't a consensus about you being town equally suspicious? They seem to have very similar reasoning for why/why not there would be a consensus with so many scum in the game.
There is no way I was going to spend 3 hours based on you wanting the case. My question was towards Silver.
As for your Osi case, I'll have to look at it tomorrow when it's not 3AM and I'm not falling asleep at my keyboard.
I guess it won't do much harm if I unvote for now, hmm?
unvote
So first thing that stands out is doing a PBP with just a like/dislike response and no analysis or narrative that explains the posts as being from town or scum. This is how scum make cases. Scum.Proph has done this, Scum.Wheat_Grinder as done this, Scum.Seppel has done this, Scum.Iso has done this (and those are just the ones I remember offhand from games I've played). It's incredibly easy to do and doesn't say much. There are also contradictions such as "* Post 233 - First paragraph is decent, second is useless. Claiming town loosely at that point is meaningless. Dislike." where Osie seems to say it's positive but then dislikes it, which are common among these fake cases. I had been suspicious of Osie before, but this post really drilled the read in. "* We should do Q1 + 1. - What everyone else has been saying. Neutral." this was the post that Osie barned. Just seems really weird that he'd both barn it and call it "what everyone has been saying. Neutral."
"D_V is scum" "I'm fine with puting D_V on a quest". He keeps doing it.
Essentially a scum-claim. Is perfectly fine with 10/12 players going on a quest. Remember when Osie had a ton of scum-reads and 1 town-read? He is now fine with the entire game questing.
Oh hey, he's fine with me too. That makes it 11/12 players he's fine with going on quests, and I've been on every single scum-list he's had.
So Q2 fails shortly after this. Osie was one of 3 players to consistently stand against D_V (Even though he supported D_V questing), but Osie never really showed any indication of why. Vaimes knew D_V was lying due to be being Percival, and Terry picked up on Vaimes' hints at being Percival, but Osie just seemed to know D_V was scum. Note that Osie is against Vaimes on Q2. Terry was supporting Vaimes while calling D_V scum, but Osie disliked D_V, Vaimes, and even Terry, he doesn't appear to have a reason for dislikng D_V outside of them being scum partners.
I know there is at least 1 scum on this quest, since I'm not on it, and scum!DV won't propose a winning group. And the fail vote from Q3 is still there.
The question is... did DV manage to find the other two town to replace me with? Or is he scum that crafted a losing group?
I've got a doctor's appointment soon. I'm going to dig into this after that.
Q3 was Rhand, Proph, Mind, Silver, Vaimes and gave 1 fail.
That means that Prophylaxis, Mindreaver, Silvercrys3467, Vaimes = 1 fail (Proph or Mind)
So Cantrip AND Osi have to be town for this quest to work.
Voted no: AG / Brinatoo / shadow / Terry / Proph
Voted yes: (DV) / Osi / Mind / Silver / Cantrip
No vote yet: me / Vaimes
All yes-voters are on the quest.
Of the no-voters, only Proph is on the quest.
Assumption: the quest will pass (meaning Cantrip and Osi are town)
Scum must stop this quest at all cost, or Q5 will become too easy.
That means that all 5 scum will have voted no. Is that possible?
Let’s look at the gamestate:
Vaimes – town: no vote yet
Silver – town: vote yes (and unvoted)
Q2 dichotomy Shadow vs DV: 1 no, 1 yes
Q3 dichotomy Proph vs Mind: 1 no, 1 yes
Everyone else: AG, Brinatoo, Terry, Osi, Cantrip: 3 no, 2 yes
So it is possible within our dichotomies that all scum are trying to stop the quest from happening.
Assumption: the quest will fail (meaning one of Cantrip and Osi is scum)
Scum wants to pass this quest and win. But they can blend in with some no votes, since unvoting is possible, so as long as the no vote isn’t hammered, they can hammer the yes. The highest the yes has been is at 4 votes, and now it’s at 3, so it would’ve required coordination to hammer it and it had to be fast between Cantrip voting and Silver unvoting.
Which means everything is still possible in this scenario.
That didn’t help.
On to the votes and everything happening during the voting:
PROPOSAL:
* DV: Proposing a quest that is not Q3+1 feels wrong. I know DV had announced beforehand that he thought it would be me if the quest fails, and he takes me out, so that makes sense from a town perspective. But still I think it’s fishy. It’s a lot safer to add only 1 unknown than 2. I don’t trust DV.
NO:
* AG: very quick vote, forgetting the vote order. His carelessness with that vote looks good for him. From a scum mindset, if this quest would win it for town, his quickness to vote no makes no sense.
Conclusion: I think this vote makes AG town.
* Brinatoo: He’s very disconnected from the game. His vote is a bit icky with the “Proph gross” remark, while in his post before that he said that “Rhand or Proph” failed that quest. I would think that he put his highest suspect first there, ergo me, and would be a bit more reserved about Proph.
Anyways, a disconnect in lylo is highly suspect.
Conclusion: Likely scum
* shadow: he assumes we can run Q4 again as Q5 and win if Q4 passes, which is obviously not the case as DV can’t nominate again. That assumption makes him more likely town than scum: scum would have thought this through (I think)
He votes without real reasoning, but since DV proposed the group, town!him should auto-no this one.
Conclusion: likely town
* Terry: His reasoning for voting no is completely sound.
* Proph: I was reading Proph as town because his frustration of not being able to analyse stuff is what town!Proph would indeed be frustrated for. But now I think that’s all fake. There is stuff to analyse now and he’s not doing it. He doesn’t deliver the content he promises.
At the time he voted no, there were already a lot of no votes. It looked like the quest had no chance of passing.
Conclusion: Proph is probably scum.
YES:
* Osie: from a town perspective, he knows either me or Mind or Proph has to be scum. Replacing me for him is not a bad deal in that case, and then Cantrip is added on whom he has a town read. If he were town, Q3 + him would be even better, but I can follow a yes vote here.
From a scum perspective, he knows that the Q3 fail vote is still there. Adding him wins the game for scum.
Conclusion: he can be both alignments with this vote.
* Mind: I really don’t know. He thinks I am scum, so removing me from Q3 looks good in his eyes, and from his POV from a town mindset, I can imagine that replacing me for Cantrip + Osi won’t give more than 1 fail vote.
However, since the Q3 fail vote is still in the group, scum!him will want to pass this as well.
Conclusion: no idea.
* Silver: I’m assuming Silver is town.
* Cantrip: What Silver says is correct. It makes no sense at all to not accept Q2 with Silver/DV/Vaimes/Cantrip but accept it with Silver/DV/Vaimes/shadow. I think Cantrip was avoiding the double fail vote there and therefor accepted town!shadow.
On top of that, Cantrip’s reasoning was that he wanted Q1+1, but now he wanted Q3+1 and does accept.
Also, Cantrip keeps repeating that he thinks I’m town, but votes yes on a proposal where DV cuts me out of the Q3 group.
Conclusion: I think Cantrip is scum. (and I’m happy DV didn’t propose Q3 + Cantrip)
General conclusion after this voting:
Town:
Me
Vaimes
Silver (yes)
Probably town:
AG (no)
Terry (no)
Shadow (no)
Mind (because of Proph) (yes)
Probably scum:
Osie (yes)
Brinatoo (no)
Proph (no)
Cantrip (yes)
DV
The team:
Prophylaxis, Mindreaver, Silvercrys3467, Vaimes, Cantripmancer, osieorb18
Probably 2 known scum and Oberon in there. Or I'm wrong about Osie and one of AG / Terry is scum.
I’ll let Vaimes weigh in first, but I want to hammer the no on this one.
If I had to take one thing from it though, is probably that the easiest/most obvious scum group (shadow/rhand/brin/osi/terry) isn't right; and we have a deeper scum later on your list.
(I'm caught up now though.)
I want to vote yes for Raisins but it looks like this quest isn't going through, so.
Maybe swap osie with JT? Silver is uh, shrug.
I'm really wary of Cantrip now that Overwatch Mafia ended, the wallposting ****er.
DV I'm kind of just flat-out mad at.
Mind was my first townread and I'm just gonna hold onto that.
Maybe one of the people I mentioned above is Percy. Who knows? Me? Unfortunately yes.
ugh
I keep on second-guessing myself, but even if my vote analysis is completely off, I can't accept a grouping with the fail still in it + Osie/Cantrip.
Based on most recently declared reads or leans (Vaimes doesn't really have much here), the order for voting, sorted based primarily on town reads, would be (conveniently matching my reads):
Brinatoo - 1 Unsure, 8 Scum, 2 Abstain
AG - 1 Town, 1 Unsure, 6 Scum, 3 Abstain
Terry - 3 Town, 1 Unsure, 7 Scum
Shadow - 3 Town, 1 Unsure, 5 Scum, 2 Abstain
Rhand - 4 Town (2 Hard), 1 Unsure, 6 Scum
Cantrip - 4 Town (3 Hard), 1 Unsure, 6 Scum
Osi - 4 Town, 2 Unsure, 5 Scum
D_V - 5 Town, 6 Scum
Proph - 5 Town, 2 Unsure, 2 Scum, 2 Abstain
Mind - 8 Town, 2 Unsure, 1 Abstain
Silver - 9 Town, 1 Unsure, 1 Abstain
Vaimes - 11 Town
I did nothing wrong in overwatch though =/
This is a way we could determine a scum-to-town vote order.
I drew that up entirely in response to Rhand's idea of a Scum-to-Town Vote Order list, before either me or Rhand commented that it didn't make sense that his list was accepted since he's not particularly townread.
What have I been doing for analysis? Tonereading and logic analysis post-by-post of each person. As I pretty much explicitly mentioned in post 475, and showed examples of in other posts. And you did the same thing in your post 1058. Except when I did it, I started with a lack of preconception. No assumption that anyone was one alignment or the other. (Well, maybe a little for Terry, but...) When you did it, you appeared to start off of the assumption that I was scum and focus on the first half of the game, skimming over or reinterpreting what I was actually expressing, especially in posts 407, 475, and 823, to name a few. 823 puts those all together:
The spoilered section:
Your comments on those posts in particular?
407:
Nothing to quote. You've made no comment here in your case.
475:
823:
You're in essence cherry-picking what you can rework to fit a specific point of view in making this case.
The fact that anyone is giving it credence at all makes me worried about the one read that was considering it.
Yes (2): osieorb18, Mindreaver
No (6): AtheistGod, Brinatoo, shadowlancerx, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Prophylaxis, Rhand
The proposed quest has not been accepted.
It is now Brinatoo's turn to propose a Questing party. He has 6 days to do so.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@Iso: Cantrip voted yes in #1054
I'd specifically like to ask that Mindreaver, AG, and Terry read through silver and tell me if there's a chance that he's our Mordred. Because if he is, that means DV is town, and there are some things that still make sense to me.
I'm going to pointedly ignore shadow's "What if Silver is Mordred?"
I... don't think there's really much else to say I haven't said already. Mostly waiting for Brin to propose I guess.
You keep on repeating this point, but you've never been my second strongest scum read.
You weren't even posting enough for someone to have a strong read on you until recently.
This is objectively wrong. Slight reads can easily be people who you want more information from. So putting them in a pile of risky people who could still go on a quest is not unreasonable.
You also still haven't responded to the point below. Do you even have a response? Because it honestly appears that you decided on a strong read early game and then are just sticking with it now without thinking about it.
Yet you had me as scum in every single one of your reads. I was basing that purely off what your stated reads were.
Ah, I didn't hit submit on my response. What about those posts disproves that you kept putting your scum-reads on potential quests? Where is the explanation for why you wouldn't justify your reads? Where is the explanation for why you scumread D_V without really disputing his Percival claim, but have now taken to calling him town only after it comes out as a false claim but some town members still townread him? What about those posts disputes that you have posted a lot of low-content lists filled with "this is the town's view". I didn't address those posts because they weren't part of the explanation on why you are scum. If you think they disprove my arguments, explain why. Making posts that don't themselves prove your scumminess isn't an argument.
I'll do a deeper reread later, but I didn't find anything even questionable in a quick skim of a bunch of his posts. He hasn't confirmed himself as town, but I haven't found anything in his posts to indicate that he's scum.
"putting your scum-reads on potential quests" is a point you have been trying to drill into people's minds for a while now. That point is predicated on a false premise. Asking people what they thought of hypothetical quest selections is not suggesting that a quest be done with that selection.
As for those particular posts and how it relates to that point: Everything before post 475 can be discarded in making a read on me. I might as well have been throwing out "I like pandas" as every post before that point. If you start from post 475 with no bias as to whether I'm town or scum, looking at each post without an arbitrary bias ahead of time, do you still have nearly as solid of a case that I've
I mean, it seriously looks like I've your hardest scumread for as long as you could manage, without you paying any attention to the content of my posts in the entire second half of the game.
In which posts after post 475? To what request? Reads on which people?
I scumread D_V because I didn't believe his Percival claim. He wasn't posting well. Then it came out as a false claim, and he admitted that he made a mistake. It would be hypocritical of me not to take that into account. I don't have a hard townread on D_V even now, but his activity since Vaimes' counter claim, and even some before that, looks much townier than any of my current scumreads, light or hard. You can see I didn't have a hard scumread on D_V in post 637.
On a related point, because you've commented on flipping reads, 823 also had the point that I became much less sure on Mindreaver. You can see the logical progression from leaning scum to unsure, possibly town with that as a midpoint. This is one of many reads where I've been analyzing posts and thought about it without assuming that I had to be right on a read from the beginning. Can you say the same on your read on me? It really doesn't look like it.
Which lists after post 475?
I posted a bit of a list in post 482 saying that I was leaning town on Mindreaver, Rhand, and Cantrip, and unsure on Proph, Vaimes, and Brinatoo. I was leaning scum on both Brinatoo and you at that point, and was more interested in testing Brinatoo than you.
In post 662, I posted a partial list of sorts saying I was leaning town on Rhand, Cantrip, Silver, and Vaimes, and leaning scum Shadow, Mindreaver, Brinatoo, and RSJT, with light or unsure reads on Proph, D_V, and you. I will admit there wasn't a lot of explanation there, but the time to ask for explanation was then, not now. Instead, you just threw shade on me by agreeing with a Mindreaver post predicated on the idea of me being scum.
In post 889, I posted a list based on the declared reads of people, which could be used to determine voting order. That was a less exact version of the later list I posted in post 1070.
In post 933, I posted a list of Shadow's declared reads, since he was reading 8 people as town and I disagreed with a lot of his reads. Shadow had been showing somewhat scummy behavior before that point, as Silver and I both commented on. Should I be explaining someone else's declared reads?
In 977/979, I listed Rhand/Shadow/AG/Brinatoo/Terry as scum and Proph, Mindreaver, Silver, Vaimes, Cantrip, D_V as town. I've made it clear that Rhand is the uncertain point for me on the scum team, and Proph, Mindreaver, and D_V are all not 100% certain townreads.
In post 1070, as mentioned, I posted a list based on people's declared reads, which could be used to determine voting order. Your response to this was to accuse me of using that list for my reads, a list which I didn't even draw up until AFTER Rhand's voting order post, post 879.
It's really hard not to read this in the context of the rest of your posts as anything other than "You're my hardest scumread, I don't want to think about anything you post that could indicate you as town. Townie posts are irrelevant to my reads." And that last piece is the crucial point. Townie posts appear irrelevant to your reads. Why should anyone trust you if that is the case?
This most recent vote was almost funny to watch. First you, Terry, and shadow scumbuddied up for page upon page, then you three, Brinatoo, and Rhand all voted certain nos, along with Proph who wasn't sure. That's a beautifully identifiable pattern of you five as scum.
Where is the analysis based on these tests? If you were testing people by putting scum on potential quests, where did you analyze their reactions?
Your alignment didn't change in 475. Also, 482 is a huge scum-flag without any prior information.
Being able to spot scum isn't scummy.
Also:
Why would scum.Rhand propose a quest group without a single scum buddy on it? It's not like he, shadow, or I were really under that much suspicion. You think he removed his buddy who was on Q1 for 2 town on Q2?
That's not really fair, as it was throwing shade on him.
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On a separate point, post 1096 is AG trying to information-gather for scum. Any response I could make to it would give scum more information than town. If AG wants to engage on a more real front, which I'm guessing he doesn't, given post 1059, his cherry-picking, and his scumminess throughout, he can, but 1096 is not productive conversation for town. AG's case on me is clearly cherry-picked with loads of misinterpretation. There are very few town aspects to AG's behavior or reads.
I may be new to this game and have posted naively for that reason, but I'm not so naive as to be suckered in by that sort of bait.
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In that vein two people (as of this moment) who have declared they think you might be scum: AG and Shadow.