So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
If my reads are all correct, town will pass 3 quests. Either Q3 passes we add literally anyone and pass Q4, or Q3 fails we replace Proph with 2 of Me, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry (which contains exactly 1 scum) and pass both Q4 and Q5.
So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
But according to the Mod, the scum don't have any way to communicate so a single fail most certainly means a single scum, much more than no fails means no scum. Scum couldn't afford to go down 2 quests. It will be interesting to see what happens in this quest, but I think if you believe DV is scum it is a hall pass for shadow.
So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
I think that has a very high chance of passing, if we can get it to fire in the first place.
Why is Shadow excluded from this list? Shadow, Silver and Vaimes should be auto-include.
Initially I figured that Vaimes-DV should be 1-for-1'd and to exclude them both, but DV's admitting to falseclaiming and Vaimes' way of going about counterclaiming/how he acted during that whole process makes me feel pretty sure Vaimes is Percy. Silver has continued making sense since then, and I still feel he's likely town. While I'm pretty sure DV was the fail vote in Q2, I'm not 100% sure, and enough people are townreading DV to make me cautious. Add that to a few of Shadow's posts feeling off (666 in particular), and I'd rather exclude both DV and Shadow, despite town-reading Shadow early on.
Not particularly. He's dug himself a grave and I understand if Cantrip doesn't want to nominate either of them since it's almost certainly one of the two. I just happen to think it's shadow, so. Like. I wouldn't vote yes on a quest with shadow on it. Neither would Rhand, I guess, and a couple other people. You, at least, and probably some others wouldn't vote yes on a quest with D_V on it, which I disagree with but understand too. At least that's consistent with your reads.
Therefore to maximize the chance of the quest going through, it should not have D_V or shadow on it. Although. Hrm.
I sort of think that we should be choosing, not quests that are the most likely to go through, but quests that we think are most likely to have all town players on them. Better data on who is rejecting quests with no scum on them and allowing quests with scum on them that way.
First off, I think that quest is likely to have all town players on it. You do not? Second of all...we don't know who's scum (well, one of us does, but that's only helpful if we're really good at looking around corners). And at some point we have to pass a nomination or we lose. Yes, I considered that a quest with DV or Shadow might be harder to get yes-votes for, but that was ok because both are in my questionable pile. We should be choosing quests that are most likely to have all town players on them AND are likely to go through. There are several variations of all-town groups when we're looking at five players on a quest. What are you trying to accomplish with this post?
@Osi - Do you think this will fail? By how many votes? Who is to blame? I'm not moving forward until you answer these questions.
Oh...I'm dying. Literally laughing out loud. You just caused my wife--not a mafia player, sees it as a waste of time--to question my sanity and scowl when I laughed out loud and then told her that she wouldn't understand. Just...the epitome of hilarity. Thank you.
So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
Simpler explanation.
Osie is Morgana
Explanation for what?
Occam's Razor.
Your assumption is that Osie is my partner and that's why he knew I was lying. A simpler explanation if that Osie is Morgana.
So Osie, Terry, and Vaimes all knew that D_V would get counterclaimed eventually. Vaimes knew because he's Percival, Terry knew because he picked up on Vaimes' reaction to D_V (this doesn't clear him, but it allows him to be either town or scum), Osie knew because D_V is his partner. Osie's reactions towards D_V don't line up with a town D_V. I don't believe that scum.D_V clears Shadow though.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
Simpler explanation.
Osie is Morgana
Explanation for what?
Occam's Razor.
Your assumption is that Osie is my partner and that's why he knew I was lying. A simpler explanation if that Osie is Morgana.
Oh I got it. Osie is Morgana and planned to pocket Vaimes while her partner false-claimed. Ya that makes perfect sense, just doesn't change anything I said.
Not particularly. He's dug himself a grave and I understand if Cantrip doesn't want to nominate either of them since it's almost certainly one of the two. I just happen to think it's shadow, so. Like. I wouldn't vote yes on a quest with shadow on it. Neither would Rhand, I guess, and a couple other people. You, at least, and probably some others wouldn't vote yes on a quest with D_V on it, which I disagree with but understand too. At least that's consistent with your reads.
Therefore to maximize the chance of the quest going through, it should not have D_V or shadow on it. Although. Hrm.
I sort of think that we should be choosing, not quests that are the most likely to go through, but quests that we think are most likely to have all town players on them. Better data on who is rejecting quests with no scum on them and allowing quests with scum on them that way.
Basically what I was saying is, I'm not sure that selecting purely based on what teams are likely to be accepted is a good idea since almost half the players are scum. Though your point about having to accept a group eventually is a thing, when you're the first proposer at least it's not really that big of deal. If you're #4 it becomes a concern if you don't trust the proposer after you since #5 will get pushed through with basically anyone on it. If that makes sense.
As far as whether your team is all town, well. Really my only reservations are Proph and the potential you/Rhand combo.
Also realized I've been reading the rules wrong, I thought after one failure every quest would need 2 to fail. But I see that's probably not the intent. Hrm.
I feel like D_V slipped there with his Osie = Morgana comment. I think everyone has Osie as scum, which means that Vaimes could confirm or deny whether Osie is Morgana without giving the scum any information.
What's your explanation for this situation? D_V and I are fantastic at coordination and Osie is actually town? Osie is scum and therefore not Merlin. D_Vs slip looks like a way to convince the undecideds that D_V is actually scum. If people don't agree with those reads, Vaimes doesn't have to comment, but this looked like a way to lock down the scum team.
Okay, so this is mostly a response to AG asking me about Terry.
That said, first off, I want to make a general, alignment-neutral comment about short, agitated, emotional posts (henceforth "SAE posts"). SAE posts are almost always bad for the poster. If you are scumread scum, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are scumread town, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are townread town, SAE posts often hurt the strategy for your team. If you are townread scum, SAE posts will likely eventually come back to bite you when town gets more information, not to mention that it is much easier to slip up when making such a post. These posts also just in general make for a less enjoyable game. For everyone. I'm not about to say that I'm immune to this. And this is also not saying that nobody should joke around or that everyone should be perfect. But I'd like to appeal to everyone's better side, be they town or scum and request that from now on, unless you're trying to label yourself as scum, please attempt to make calm and rational posts, explaining the logic behind your points to what degree you can without leaking sensitive information. It will likely improve this game for everyone.
My response to AG on Terry follows. But one last thing before that…
@Terry (and to some degree anyone else): In the vein of my previous long paragraph, if you are going to respond to this, please think over what you are saying and post a rational explanation. Anything less than that might as well be spam (e.g. "Oh good, AG is scum. Thanks dude."). If you're just going to post saying "Disregard this post because I think Osi is scum," don't do it. It's a waste of space.
@AtheistGod: I'm just going to list some notable posts for my case on Terry from near the beginning until now and my thoughts on them.
Post 50: This post can be relevant, depending on one's read of shadow. In general, this is probably fine.
His strategy posts mostly talk about strategy for both sides, which is not great.
Post 103: As Mindreaver pointed out, intentional passing suggestion right after it was explained to be a bad idea.
Post 122: Eww. This post is pretty vitriolic out of the blue.
Post 125 is not too bad… …but then he continues with a "hard scumread" on D_V? What?
Post 157: Despite his scumread on me at the time, which given how I was playing made sense, Silver's reads/posts have generally been quite decent, and I liked his post 159 explanation of his issues with Terry a lot. Rhand also scumread Terry around this point. When I looked through post-by-post back on page 10, Rhand was one of my top three townreads.
Post 182: The first bit of logic here is bad. Both sides would want to self-nominate.
Post 185: Cantrip is another hard town-read of mine, and he was (and I'm guessing still is) ALSO not a fan of Terry.
Post 191: Why is he so stuck on D_V above everyone else?
This is some mighty fine dedication. And "vetoing ANY quest with ANYONE not in agreement?" That just sounds excessive.
Post 231: All of the last three sentences feel like comments someone who isn't being as careful as they should be as scum would make.
Post 234: This doesn't contribute much, and in context is not a very town post. Also, while reading D_V is hard, it really seems like RSJT has some sort of tunnel vision on D_V, not remotely willing to consider another idea.
Post 271: As mentioned by shadow, this just comes off as throwing shade, especially given the previous pattern. It's not even really notable anymore when he goes ham on D_V, as it goes on the entire game.
Post 301: Rhand was relatively town at this point to anyone who was careful enough on their reads of him. So why doesn't Terry want Rhand picking the quest? Because Rhand had a scumread on Terry?
Post 316: So he takes the idea of throwing shade just after learning it and immediately goes on the defensive against someone actively calling him scum, not just throwing shade.
He doubles down on the bad strategy immediately after being criticized for doubling down on the bad strategy? Why?
Post 358: This seems like whining about people scumreading him, without any visible self-awareness.
Post 360: Why is he asking his strongest scumread's opinion? Does he think he'll get something useful out of that, or just get more people on the D_V train?
Post 370: Cantrip, a positive read, points out that Terry is acting rather scummy.
Post 414: As far as I can tell, this never happened… I'm not sure what these viable other options were anyway.
Post 427: This doesn't really make sense. Though, to be fair, that was basically just Terry drinking some wine that I set in front of him.
Post 428: This post and his next one are actively not constructive in the slightest.
Post 473: Yet another good Cantrip post pointing out issues with Terry.
And then Terry posted a quest (probably intentionally) which failed by 1 vote.
A while later… post 624 (and 625) come out of nowhere to just shout that D_V isn't town.
At this point, he seems pretty clearly a hard scumread. Like, even Shadow, who is reasonably likely also scum, can't believe how over the top Terry's posts are.
Post 711: If he thinks I'm scum, this is signaling. If he thinks I'm town, this post is useless. Also, this is at least the second time that he told me he'd think about something I posted and then didn't do so.
Silver makes fantastic points about Terry's arguments here and here.
Oh, and on a complete tangent which I have touched on a little before:
Soon after post 370 we get to the point where I really started thinking about the game and if I even wanted to continue playing as a heavily scumread town member. The game is pretty much the worst in that position, unless you are there intentionally, given that you're essentially not participating. You'll notice that I decided for a while around this point to post purely with a focus on keeping things running and organized without directly furthering either team beyond a vote (posts 391, post 394, post 396, post 398.) This felt like the best way to step back Post 401 was a shift towards more active analysis, and post 407 was freely acknowledging and apologizing for the prior lack of effort. I'd been wanting to go over everything long before post 475, but that was when I really had the best chance to do so.
In looking over posts for this, my medium-hard scumread on Mindreaver is somewhat lighter than it was. Though he's still the most likely in my book if Q3 fails. Also:
@Mindreaver: Can you explain that post, please? It's not clear where that's coming from without knowing someone's vote, and the most obvious vote you'd know would be your own.
In looking over posts for this, my medium-hard scumread on Mindreaver is somewhat lighter than it was. Though he's still the most likely in my book if Q3 fails. Also:
@Mindreaver: Can you explain that post, please? It's not clear where that's coming from without knowing someone's vote, and the most obvious vote you'd know would be your own.
You mean as a response to Terry's post right before that? Where he said Q2 -DV +Vaimes? And then the post right after that where I clarified that I didn't realize he was saying "-" DV, and I was saying if he was proposing Q2 + anyone, for Q3, it was going to fail.
I thought that was pretty clear, given context. I suppose if you're just cherry-picking, it might look confusing.
What's your explanation for this situation? D_V and I are fantastic at coordination and Osie is actually town? Osie is scum and therefore not Merlin. D_Vs slip looks like a way to convince the undecideds that D_V is actually scum. If people don't agree with those reads, Vaimes doesn't have to comment, but this looked like a way to lock down the scum team.
Because we can't *know*, but the scum team does. They know who Morgana is. So if we're all idiots, and Osi is just a noob, Vaime's confirming means that we just told the scum team who Merlin is.
Also, Vaimes shouldn't comment on anything unless it's got enough WIFOM to make things more difficult for the assassin. I think he's doing fine so far (I did go over his post history when he claimed to see how bad that hurt us, and I didn't see anything glaring).
The fact that you are *certain* on Osi's alignment either way, means you must know something we don't. Basically: you're scum.
At this point, he seems pretty clearly a hard scumread. Like, even Shadow, who is reasonably likely also scum, can't believe how over the top Terry's posts are.
I know this is cherry picking, but that wasn't the tone of my post. That was the point when I was pretty sure JoeTerry was actually town, but I wanted to know how much experience he had.
Not particularly. He's dug himself a grave and I understand if Cantrip doesn't want to nominate either of them since it's almost certainly one of the two. I just happen to think it's shadow, so. Like. I wouldn't vote yes on a quest with shadow on it. Neither would Rhand, I guess, and a couple other people. You, at least, and probably some others wouldn't vote yes on a quest with D_V on it, which I disagree with but understand too. At least that's consistent with your reads.
Therefore to maximize the chance of the quest going through, it should not have D_V or shadow on it. Although. Hrm.
I sort of think that we should be choosing, not quests that are the most likely to go through, but quests that we think are most likely to have all town players on them. Better data on who is rejecting quests with no scum on them and allowing quests with scum on them that way.
Basically what I was saying is, I'm not sure that selecting purely based on what teams are likely to be accepted is a good idea since almost half the players are scum. Though your point about having to accept a group eventually is a thing, when you're the first proposer at least it's not really that big of deal. If you're #4 it becomes a concern if you don't trust the proposer after you since #5 will get pushed through with basically anyone on it. If that makes sense.
Ok, I can see where you're coming from. But from my perspective, we're in for a roller coaster after this proposal, as we have:
DV - Mostly don't trust him and will be very leery of any quest he proposes.
Brin - Still hasn't posted enough to give me a strong read on him.
AG - Probably the towniest of my ? reads.
Osie - Started out as strong scum read, but has been posting a lot better, in general.
So I guess it wouldn't have been the end of the world if we ran that gamut, but I'd rather get a strong nomination passed, and use that to assess/drive DV's and Brin's nominations.
Quote from Silver »
As far as whether your team is all town, well. Really my only reservations are Proph and the potential you/Rhand combo.
So, you're uncertain on only three of the five. Ok, that's fine.
Quote from Silver »
Also realized I've been reading the rules wrong, I thought after one failure every quest would need 2 to fail. But I see that's probably not the intent. Hrm.
That said, first off, I want to make a general, alignment-neutral comment about short, agitated, emotional posts (henceforth "SAE posts"). SAE posts are almost always bad for the poster. If you are scumread scum, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are scumread town, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are townread town, SAE posts often hurt the strategy for your team. If you are townread scum, SAE posts will likely eventually come back to bite you when town gets more information, not to mention that it is much easier to slip up when making such a post. These posts also just in general make for a less enjoyable game. For everyone. I'm not about to say that I'm immune to this. And this is also not saying that nobody should joke around or that everyone should be perfect. But I'd like to appeal to everyone's better side, be they town or scum and request that from now on, unless you're trying to label yourself as scum, please attempt to make calm and rational posts, explaining the logic behind your points to what degree you can without leaking sensitive information. It will likely improve this game for everyone.
I will admit that I didn't look at every Terry reference you made, as I already think he's more likely to be scum than not, but I wanted to specifically thank you for this.
Because we can't *know*, but the scum team does. They know who Morgana is. So if we're all idiots, and Osi is just a noob, Vaime's confirming means that we just told the scum team who Merlin is.
Also, Vaimes shouldn't comment on anything unless it's got enough WIFOM to make things more difficult for the assassin. I think he's doing fine so far (I did go over his post history when he claimed to see how bad that hurt us, and I didn't see anything glaring).
/barn
Quote from Mindreaver »
The fact that you are *certain* on Osi's alignment either way, means you must know something we don't. Basically: you're scum.
Not sold. Where did AG say he was "certain" on Osie's alignment?
re: the rules thing, it says: "If 1 or more of the submissions is "Fail" for the first three Quests, the Quest will fail. Afterwards, a Quest will require 2 "Fail" submissions to fail." I thought "afterwords" meant "after a quest fails" not "after the first three quests."
In looking over posts for this, my medium-hard scumread on Mindreaver is somewhat lighter than it was. Though he's still the most likely in my book if Q3 fails. Also:
@Mindreaver: Can you explain that post, please? It's not clear where that's coming from without knowing someone's vote, and the most obvious vote you'd know would be your own.
You mean as a response to Terry's post right before that? Where he said Q2 -DV +Vaimes? And then the post right after that where I clarified that I didn't realize he was saying "-" DV, and I was saying if he was proposing Q2 + anyone, for Q3, it was going to fail.
I thought that was pretty clear, given context. I suppose if you're just cherry-picking, it might look confusing.
I feel like D_V slipped there with his Osie = Morgana comment. I think everyone has Osie as scum, which means that Vaimes could confirm or deny whether Osie is Morgana without giving the scum any information.
I don't know that it points to D_V/AG team, but getting answers out of Vaimes, about anything, isn't helping town at all. If everyone is scumreading Osi, all well and good. He won't quest, and either way, no harm to town. If Vaimes divulges he's one of the two, we either don't send him on quests OR we lose the game. Seems like a tough gamble.
I mean, let me ask this to the thread at large. If we all universally suspect Osi, is there any benefit at all to having confirmation? Like if I had a one-shot alignment reveal, would it at all change out behavior right now?
Osie being Morgana isn't about Osie's alignment, it's about D_V's alignment and the fact that he scum-slipped.
I really don't see how that's a scum slip.
All I was saying there was by with your logic with Occam's Razor it made more sense for Osie to be Morg then for us to both be scum. Its much more simply to me.
I feel like D_V slipped there with his Osie = Morgana comment. I think everyone has Osie as scum, which means that Vaimes could confirm or deny whether Osie is Morgana without giving the scum any information.
I don't know that it points to D_V/AG team, but getting answers out of Vaimes, about anything, isn't helping town at all. If everyone is scumreading Osi, all well and good. He won't quest, and either way, no harm to town. If Vaimes divulges he's one of the two, we either don't send him on quests OR we lose the game. Seems like a tough gamble.
I mean, let me ask this to the thread at large. If we all universally suspect Osi, is there any benefit at all to having confirmation? Like if I had a one-shot alignment reveal, would it at all change out behavior right now?
No don't do this. Here are the two scenerios:
1. Vaimes says, yep he's one of my two confirms. Best Case, we don't send him on any quests and can build connections, but we are already kind of doing that. Worst Case, scum know that he's not Morgana, therefore is Merlin, game over.
2. Vaimes says, he's not one of my two confirms, meaning that he could be scum or town and we have to read him like a normal player, but we are already kind of doing that.
Osie being Morgana isn't about Osie's alignment, it's about D_V's alignment and the fact that he scum-slipped.
I really don't see how that's a scum slip.
All I was saying there was by with your logic with Occam's Razor it made more sense for Osie to be Morg then for us to both be scum. Its much more simply to me.
Osie being Morgana had no relevance to the situation. You brought it up because you know she is Morgana.
@Osi Wall: A lot of the case you have presented there is based on my hard-reading of DV and how I presented that. At several points I made very well constructed arguments for why he is scum, which seemed to be mostly ignored because he made a horrible fake-claim which was being soft CCed almost from the second he claimed Percy. I got frustrated and instead of just being ok being ignored, I responded by yelling louder. Maybe it's not the most constructive way to go about it.
I honestly don't have time right now to go down your whole list and address each point, but I did read them and many of them where points that have already been addressed and I know there are a few things I promised you that I didn't materialize. I know the other option I talked about in #414 was me being town and being pretty sure a CC was coming and not wanting to out a town PR. You had a proposal (RE #711) that I was going to address and something else came up and it slipped my mind. When you posted your list I went back and tried to pin point which one you I was supposed to address and kind of gave up since you were kind of all over the place with your proposal. If you want to restate the proposal you'd like me to address go for it and I'd be happy to get to that.
If you want to restate the proposal you'd like me to address go for it and I'd be happy to get to that.
It's a little different now that we went through Q3. I'll have to see what information we get from iso on that. But post 645 had the original proposal. Post 662 (and the next two posts) elaborated some.
Osie being Morgana isn't about Osie's alignment, it's about D_V's alignment and the fact that he scum-slipped.
I really don't see how that's a scum slip.
All I was saying there was by with your logic with Occam's Razor it made more sense for Osie to be Morg then for us to both be scum. Its much more simply to me.
Osie being Morgana had no relevance to the situation. You brought it up because you know she is Morgana.
Huh.
You're right. I realized the scum don't know who the real percy is.
I was thinking that Ori as scum would know they were percy look alike and also would know I wasn't the other option. But they actually don't have that information.
With your logic though wouldn't I always be counter claimed by the other percy if there just was one?
And Osi could have just been setting up the scum buddy to look better.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
re: the rules thing, it says: "If 1 or more of the submissions is "Fail" for the first three Quests, the Quest will fail. Afterwards, a Quest will require 2 "Fail" submissions to fail." I thought "afterwords" meant "after a quest fails" not "after the first three quests."
Are you saying if Q3 is successful, you'd remove Rhand from the group and add two other people???
Not necessarily. Having one scum after Q3 is fine. Depends on what happens with this quest.
So...you DIDN'T answer the question. Don't do it now. Only provides perspective to any scum on the quest if you're town or manipulates town on the quest if you're scum. Like I said, the value in you answering that question would have been before the quest successfully went.
I don't really see how that's a Morg claim.
Some of you can't appreciate fine wine, I guess.
I mean, I guess he could be scum. But I doubt he would actually say that as Morg.
I appreciated the wine. I agree that it likely wouldn't come from Morgana, and could equally come from the real Merlin as well as a well-intentioned town or calculating non-Morgana scum.
*sigh* The quest was approved yesterday, Iso has posted to the site since then but didn't mod-approve the quest. Barring something strange going on (we *did* get 6 yeses, didn't we?), in the interest of saving time, could those on the quest send your votes to Iso now so that he can advance the game state when he does check in? I'm sending him a "hey mod" right now just in case he doesn't realize that we need an adult.
I think I should be townreading JT.
Brinatoo doesn't have many posts, but they are almost all pretty scummy. So there's 3 scum. That leaves 2 scum between Proph, Cantrip, Shadow, Terry.
Simpler explanation.
Osie is Morgana
Explanation for what?
You didn't answer the question, and now a lot of the value that we would have gotten from it is lost since the nomination passed. Not cool.
First off, I think that quest is likely to have all town players on it. You do not? Second of all...we don't know who's scum (well, one of us does, but that's only helpful if we're really good at looking around corners). And at some point we have to pass a nomination or we lose. Yes, I considered that a quest with DV or Shadow might be harder to get yes-votes for, but that was ok because both are in my questionable pile. We should be choosing quests that are most likely to have all town players on them AND are likely to go through. There are several variations of all-town groups when we're looking at five players on a quest. What are you trying to accomplish with this post?
Oh...I'm dying. Literally laughing out loud. You just caused my wife--not a mafia player, sees it as a waste of time--to question my sanity and scowl when I laughed out loud and then told her that she wouldn't understand. Just...the epitome of hilarity. Thank you.
Occam's Razor.
Your assumption is that Osie is my partner and that's why he knew I was lying. A simpler explanation if that Osie is Morgana.
@Cantrip I 100% answered the question.
How does Osie being Morgana explain anything?
And my discourse with Silver was not "partnering?" I like how your comments are a lot of emotion...
??????????
I was answering this post.
Basically what I was saying is, I'm not sure that selecting purely based on what teams are likely to be accepted is a good idea since almost half the players are scum. Though your point about having to accept a group eventually is a thing, when you're the first proposer at least it's not really that big of deal. If you're #4 it becomes a concern if you don't trust the proposer after you since #5 will get pushed through with basically anyone on it. If that makes sense.
As far as whether your team is all town, well. Really my only reservations are Proph and the potential you/Rhand combo.
Also realized I've been reading the rules wrong, I thought after one failure every quest would need 2 to fail. But I see that's probably not the intent. Hrm.
What's your explanation for this situation? D_V and I are fantastic at coordination and Osie is actually town? Osie is scum and therefore not Merlin. D_Vs slip looks like a way to convince the undecideds that D_V is actually scum. If people don't agree with those reads, Vaimes doesn't have to comment, but this looked like a way to lock down the scum team.
It's okay. You can admit I am one of your two.
Okay, so this is mostly a response to AG asking me about Terry.
That said, first off, I want to make a general, alignment-neutral comment about short, agitated, emotional posts (henceforth "SAE posts"). SAE posts are almost always bad for the poster. If you are scumread scum, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are scumread town, SAE posts confirm that and noone thinking rationally will listen to you. If you are townread town, SAE posts often hurt the strategy for your team. If you are townread scum, SAE posts will likely eventually come back to bite you when town gets more information, not to mention that it is much easier to slip up when making such a post. These posts also just in general make for a less enjoyable game. For everyone. I'm not about to say that I'm immune to this. And this is also not saying that nobody should joke around or that everyone should be perfect. But I'd like to appeal to everyone's better side, be they town or scum and request that from now on, unless you're trying to label yourself as scum, please attempt to make calm and rational posts, explaining the logic behind your points to what degree you can without leaking sensitive information. It will likely improve this game for everyone.
My response to AG on Terry follows. But one last thing before that…
@Terry (and to some degree anyone else): In the vein of my previous long paragraph, if you are going to respond to this, please think over what you are saying and post a rational explanation. Anything less than that might as well be spam (e.g. "Oh good, AG is scum. Thanks dude."). If you're just going to post saying "Disregard this post because I think Osi is scum," don't do it. It's a waste of space.
@AtheistGod: I'm just going to list some notable posts for my case on Terry from near the beginning until now and my thoughts on them.
Oh, and on a complete tangent which I have touched on a little before:
In looking over posts for this, my medium-hard scumread on Mindreaver is somewhat lighter than it was. Though he's still the most likely in my book if Q3 fails. Also:
@Mindreaver: Can you explain that post, please? It's not clear where that's coming from without knowing someone's vote, and the most obvious vote you'd know would be your own.
I thought that was pretty clear, given context. I suppose if you're just cherry-picking, it might look confusing.
Also, Vaimes shouldn't comment on anything unless it's got enough WIFOM to make things more difficult for the assassin. I think he's doing fine so far (I did go over his post history when he claimed to see how bad that hurt us, and I didn't see anything glaring).
The fact that you are *certain* on Osi's alignment either way, means you must know something we don't. Basically: you're scum.
Ok, I can see where you're coming from. But from my perspective, we're in for a roller coaster after this proposal, as we have:
DV - Mostly don't trust him and will be very leery of any quest he proposes.
Brin - Still hasn't posted enough to give me a strong read on him.
AG - Probably the towniest of my ? reads.
Osie - Started out as strong scum read, but has been posting a lot better, in general.
So I guess it wouldn't have been the end of the world if we ran that gamut, but I'd rather get a strong nomination passed, and use that to assess/drive DV's and Brin's nominations.
So, you're uncertain on only three of the five. Ok, that's fine.
I felt like the rules were pretty clear.
I will admit that I didn't look at every Terry reference you made, as I already think he's more likely to be scum than not, but I wanted to specifically thank you for this.
/barn
Not sold. Where did AG say he was "certain" on Osie's alignment?
Nah. I just misread the posts. All good.
I don't know that it points to D_V/AG team, but getting answers out of Vaimes, about anything, isn't helping town at all. If everyone is scumreading Osi, all well and good. He won't quest, and either way, no harm to town. If Vaimes divulges he's one of the two, we either don't send him on quests OR we lose the game. Seems like a tough gamble.
I mean, let me ask this to the thread at large. If we all universally suspect Osi, is there any benefit at all to having confirmation? Like if I had a one-shot alignment reveal, would it at all change out behavior right now?
Not necessarily. Having one scum after Q3 is fine. Depends on what happens with this quest.
I really don't see how that's a scum slip.
All I was saying there was by with your logic with Occam's Razor it made more sense for Osie to be Morg then for us to both be scum. Its much more simply to me.
1. Vaimes says, yep he's one of my two confirms. Best Case, we don't send him on any quests and can build connections, but we are already kind of doing that. Worst Case, scum know that he's not Morgana, therefore is Merlin, game over.
2. Vaimes says, he's not one of my two confirms, meaning that he could be scum or town and we have to read him like a normal player, but we are already kind of doing that.
Osie being Morgana had no relevance to the situation. You brought it up because you know she is Morgana.
Some of you can't appreciate fine wine, I guess.
I mean, I guess he could be scum. But I doubt he would actually say that as Morg.
I honestly don't have time right now to go down your whole list and address each point, but I did read them and many of them where points that have already been addressed and I know there are a few things I promised you that I didn't materialize. I know the other option I talked about in #414 was me being town and being pretty sure a CC was coming and not wanting to out a town PR. You had a proposal (RE #711) that I was going to address and something else came up and it slipped my mind. When you posted your list I went back and tried to pin point which one you I was supposed to address and kind of gave up since you were kind of all over the place with your proposal. If you want to restate the proposal you'd like me to address go for it and I'd be happy to get to that.
It's a little different now that we went through Q3. I'll have to see what information we get from iso on that. But post 645 had the original proposal. Post 662 (and the next two posts) elaborated some.
Huh.
You're right. I realized the scum don't know who the real percy is.
I was thinking that Ori as scum would know they were percy look alike and also would know I wasn't the other option. But they actually don't have that information.
With your logic though wouldn't I always be counter claimed by the other percy if there just was one?
And Osi could have just been setting up the scum buddy to look better.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
So...you DIDN'T answer the question. Don't do it now. Only provides perspective to any scum on the quest if you're town or manipulates town on the quest if you're scum. Like I said, the value in you answering that question would have been before the quest successfully went.
I appreciated the wine. I agree that it likely wouldn't come from Morgana, and could equally come from the real Merlin as well as a well-intentioned town or calculating non-Morgana scum.
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*sigh* The quest was approved yesterday, Iso has posted to the site since then but didn't mod-approve the quest. Barring something strange going on (we *did* get 6 yeses, didn't we?), in the interest of saving time, could those on the quest send your votes to Iso now so that he can advance the game state when he does check in? I'm sending him a "hey mod" right now just in case he doesn't realize that we need an adult.