No, that's fine. He thinks Proph is scum, so removing the scum from Q3 then adding shadow/D_V only results in one failure. I'm inclined to agree with him, actually. Proph has just... stopped posting altogether which is nagl for him. He's always told me he loses all energy as scum later on in the game. And he just... doesn't seem to care here. Like. In lylo in the crossover game we played with MU last year he tried to solve the game, at least, and almost got it right before we mislynched him because of the deadline.
Here he's just. Not doing anything even though we're about to lose. If he's town I'm going to be a bit cross that we're getting nothing at all from him. (I'll get over it though. Life happens. )
But if Oberon is the Q3 fail, Cantrip probably isn't scum. Like, scum!Cantrip proposed a team with just Oberon on it? What are the odds of that unless he knew somehow? I guess D_V could be Oberon but then... Hrm. Well, actually, Terry proposed Q1+Vaimes. That had one fail, then Cantrip took Vaimes and me and proposed a quest with a known buddy on it. Then Oberon!D_V took a shot at making a failing quest by taking you off and putting Cantrip/Osi on, meaning he thought you were town and at least one of them was scum.
That means... town!Terry though, doesn't it? So the team is exactly Brinatoo/Osi/Cantrip/Proph/+D_V?
Oh wait. Why did the scum team not try to push D_V's quest through, then? They didn't even try, they just all voted against it. One of Cantrip/Osi must be town and either the other is Oberon or the Q3 failure was Oberon. Otherwise they should have at least tried to push it through, right? I guess Cantrip could be Oberon and got lucky with Proph. Scum!D_V proposes Oberon!Cantrip with scum!Proph, gets voted down because the rest of the scum team thinks there's only one scum? Mmmm.
On the flip side, in scum!shadow worlds... scum!Terry proposed Q1+Vaimes knowing shadow would fail it, scum!Cantrip proposed known buddy Proph in a group of three to hide him, town!D_V proposed a quest with three scum on it because his reads are terrible... Oh, but Cantrip and D_V can't be w/v if you're town, though. So that doesn't work at all. Town!Cantrip could have proposed a quest with Oberon on it, I guess, but then the team is... shadow/Brinatoo/Osi/Proph/Terry? And Proph/shadow are the only scum that have been voting for the failing proposals while we hang ourselves? And Proph didn't know which proposals would actually fail. I don't think that works either.
My biggest worry is that we no vote here, then Osi/shadow are scum together and we lose when AG proposes shadow as +1.
We need to figure out if there's any chance shadow is scum and convince AG not to propose him, but that will involve finding the last town in [Terry/Cantrip/Osi/Brinatoo] and making it extremely clear who that is and why.
If one of Osi and shadow are town the game is mechanically locked, for what it's worth.
I'm just not convinced that's actually true. vote: no.
I've decided that Rhand is probably town. I hope AG will propose [Silvercrys3467/Vaimes/Rhand/Mindreaver/shadow/D_V] as his Q4. If that proposal fails, we either lose instantly to shadow/Osi teams or whichever of them is town can propose Q3+AG. After that I'll propose the passing Q4 with AG in my spot. That should win the game unless the assassin shoots me.
No, that's fine. He thinks Proph is scum, so removing the scum from Q3 then adding shadow/D_V only results in one failure. I'm inclined to agree with him, actually. Proph has just... stopped posting altogether which is nagl for him. He's always told me he loses all energy as scum later on in the game. And he just... doesn't seem to care here. Like. In lylo in the crossover game we played with MU last year he tried to solve the game, at least, and almost got it right before we mislynched him because of the deadline.
Here he's just. Not doing anything even though we're about to lose. If he's town I'm going to be a bit cross that we're getting nothing at all from him. (I'll get over it though. Life happens. )
I agree completely. I understood him earlier when he said there was nothing to analyse because that does demotivate Proph.
But now we do have stuff to analyse. Lots of it. And he's not doing it. That is his scum meta.
The idea of putting DV on a quest sounds completely awful, but I understand where that's coming from. I think trading out a person that has a decent chance of being scum and adding sure scum is still pretty risky instead of doing Q3+1. Unfortunately my first choice of who to add is also the quest proposer so other than just doing Q3+me, I'm not sure what would be a good choice there.
If one of Osi and shadow are town the game is mechanically locked, for what it's worth.
That's somewhat how I've been seeing it... But this game is feel-bad, especially when we likely could have gotten a second pass for town via D_V's quest suggestion if not for most likely Proph's uncertainty (not that I'm begrudging him that or his role, if that's it instead), and this strange, but potentially fortuitous quest from Brinatoo may be voted down as well... This long process for Q4 has led to me reconsidering people who seemed to be rather solidly one way or the other. I felt much more comfortable with my reads going into D_V's quest proposal.
@shadow: Let's say you had to propose a quest right now, and it was guaranteed to actually go through, who's going on your quest, and why?
If one of Osi and shadow are town the game is mechanically locked, for what it's worth.
That's somewhat how I've been seeing it... But this game is feel-bad, especially when we likely could have gotten a second pass for town via D_V's quest suggestion if not for most likely Proph's uncertainty (not that I'm begrudging him that or his role, if that's it instead), and this strange, but potentially fortuitous quest from Brinatoo may be voted down as well... This long process for Q4 has led to me reconsidering people who seemed to be rather solidly one way or the other. I felt much more comfortable with my reads going into D_V's quest proposal.
@shadow: Let's say you had to propose a quest right now, and it was guaranteed to actually go through, who's going on your quest, and why?
Probably Q3+AG, but I have the advantage of seeing if he actually proposes a quest with me in it/if that quest gets voted through. The best part for me is that if AG's quest goes through and passes, you just propose the same quest or scum claim.
*****. Shadow's right. This game is probably over in scum's favor unless we get bloody lucky as town. Scum doesn't have to fail Q4 if they just can get a second scum trusted as town on Q5, along with the 1 fail from Q3. So Q3+1 and then Q4+1 is perfect for scum. If they can get a second scum on Q4, that's it. If they can't, they just get it added on Q5. The only way to work against this is if every town member agrees on something, which is unlikely. I think that it almost happened on D_V's quest, but signs have been worse since then. If town tries to play towards that ideal, scum only needs 1 town member to be unsure on a quest for it not to go through, just like D_V's proposal. Well, I guess we'll see what goes through for Q4. I'm not giving up this game to scum yet, but I'm not that hopeful.
Also, Q5 has the same number of players as Q4. So we don't have to add anyone to it. Well, except that if it has you on it you'll have to replace yourself. If shadow doesn't propose the Q4 that passed (and thereby claims scum) I can put D_V on it in my place. I guess if we do Rhand's proposed quest and it passes shadow has to replace himself and D_V, but he can just propose exactly Q3+AG, so.
But yes, I've been saying for a while that scum only need one or two town players to agree with them to get whatever outcome they want on a proposal. That's, like, the entire thing I've been saying when I reread the game and point out vote counts and things. It's not so bad when there's fewer players because there's not so much to keep track of and not so much crazy maneuvering scum can do to be off wagon when it goes through and such. With the number of players we have the vote counts are a bit distorted.
Anyway. Yeah. The plan should be: everyone votes this down. AG proposes Q3(-Proph)(+D_V)(+shadow) and we all vote yes. Osi proposes AG's Q4 and/or shadow proposes Q3+AG for Q5. If Q5 somehow comes to me I can either propose Q3+AG with D_V in my spot (shadow scum claims) or the passing Q4 with AG in my spot.
Game is locked if you trust that AG is town and Proph is scum. If Proph is town he needs to get in here and prove it.
Well I like having a plan at least. I'm going to take the night and re-read Proph and Rhand. If I'm right and Rhand was the fail, then this plan hands the game to scum. But I'll re-evaluate.
@Rhand - is Proph's lurking/not analyzing really that much of a scum tell? Any thoughts you'd like to share would be helpful.
*****. Shadow's right. This game is probably over in scum's favor unless we get bloody lucky as town. Scum doesn't have to fail Q4 if they just can get a second scum trusted as town on Q5, along with the 1 fail from Q3. So Q3+1 and then Q4+1 is perfect for scum. If they can get a second scum on Q4, that's it. If they can't, they just get it added on Q5. The only way to work against this is if every town member agrees on something, which is unlikely. I think that it almost happened on D_V's quest, but signs have been worse since then. If town tries to play towards that ideal, scum only needs 1 town member to be unsure on a quest for it not to go through, just like D_V's proposal. Well, I guess we'll see what goes through for Q4. I'm not giving up this game to scum yet, but I'm not that hopeful.
@iso: Any progress on a replacement for D_V?
I don't think you understood what I was saying at all. Basically, if the proposal that AG puts forth passes, then either you have to propose the exact same quest team for quest 5 and we win, or you propose anything else and scum claim, meaning it goes to me.
And regarding taking out proph, I really don't like the plan of adding me and DV.
Also, Q5 has the same number of players as Q4. So we don't have to add anyone to it.
Oh. Huh. I'd been operating under the misassumption that it had 7 players for a while. Huh. Not much difference, anyways. Means there's more of a chance for town, I guess. Well, I guess that's not too bad...
But yes, I've been saying for a while that scum only need one or two town players to agree with them to get whatever outcome they want on a proposal. That's, like, the entire thing I've been saying when I reread the game and point out vote counts and things. It's not so bad when there's fewer players because there's not so much to keep track of and not so much crazy maneuvering scum can do to be off wagon when it goes through and such. With the number of players we have the vote counts are a bit distorted.
The absences have been taking their toll the whole game, too.
Anyway. Yeah. The plan should be: everyone votes this down. AG proposes Q3(-Proph)(+D_V)(+shadow) and we all vote yes. Osi proposes AG's Q4 and/or shadow proposes Q3+AG for Q5. If Q5 somehow comes to me I can either propose Q3+AG with D_V in my spot (shadow scum claims) or the passing Q4 with AG in my spot.
Uhh... What? This just sounds like a bad plan. Since when is Shadow town enough or Proph scum enough to replace Proph with Shadow alongside two uncertainties, at least one of which is probably scum (Rhand, D_V)?
And regarding taking out proph, I really don't like the plan of adding me and DV.
Well. From your PoV game is locked anyway if we no-vote AG's quest and he's town, so...
That was my original plan, if that matters. No-vote AG's proposal, have whichever one of you/Osi is town propose Q3+AG. Problem is, we lose to you/Osi if you're both scum and I can't convince myself you're not. And I'd rather not leave it up to the coin flip between you/D_V that this essentially is.
I'm pretty sure at this point that Proph is scum, so this avoids the problem entirely in my mind. Even if you're both scum it won't matter because I can propose AG's quest with him in my spot, if it comes to that.
I don't think you understood what I was saying at all. Basically, if the proposal that AG puts forth passes, then either you have to propose the exact same quest team for quest 5 and we win, or you propose anything else and scum claim, meaning it goes to me.
Yeah, though it doesn't matter who puts forth the proposal, as long as it is remotely likely to go through, like either D_V's or Brinatoo's.
And regarding taking out proph, I really don't like the plan of adding me and DV.
Well, I guess at least we agree on something, in a manner of speaking.
Just because Proph's been missing since last Sunday certainly doesn't confirm a scumread. Proph was also doing work on his own game setup, which is another commitment. He loses energy late game on either team, and I certainly see why. (Heck, I'm sometimes much the same in IRL gaming of this sort.) I'm not entirely sure where Silver's scumread of Proph is coming from.
Unless there's some important question directed towards me, I'm going to focus on IRL stuff for the most part until AG proposes a quest.
Anyway. Yeah. The plan should be: everyone votes this down. AG proposes Q3(-Proph)(+D_V)(+shadow) and we all vote yes. Osi proposes AG's Q4 and/or shadow proposes Q3+AG for Q5. If Q5 somehow comes to me I can either propose Q3+AG with D_V in my spot (shadow scum claims) or the passing Q4 with AG in my spot.
Uhh... What? This just sounds like a bad plan. Since when is Shadow town enough or Proph scum enough to replace Proph with Shadow alongside two uncertainties, at least one of which is probably scum (Rhand, D_V)?
shadow isn't, but there's only one scum in shadow/D_V. If Proph is scum, dropping him from Q3 and adding them results in one fail. There's only two fails if Rhand is scum instead of Proph.
Game is locked if you trust that AG is town and Proph is scum. If Proph is town he needs to get in here and prove it.
Both of those reads seem unlikely. And if there is a strict dichotomy between AG and myself, AG is scum.
There's not a strict dichotomy? Well, actually, I guess there kind of is in that if he's town you cannot be. Or scum!Brinatoo is trolling or something and proposed a passing quest (unlikely, I think).
Just because Proph's been missing since last Sunday certainly doesn't confirm a scumread. Proph was also doing work on his own game setup, which is another commitment. He loses energy late game on either team, and I certainly see why. (Heck, I'm sometimes much the same in IRL gaming of this sort.) I'm not entirely sure where Silver's scumread of Proph is coming from.
Basically, it boils down to the fact that I don't think this is the regular "Proph falls off/loses interest regardless of alignment." I played two games with him when we were both town, and I read a pretty long mentor QT he had with Voxx, and I've talked to him/seen him say stuff on Discord about his own scum game. I feel like he would be saying /something/ as town because he'd feel awful if we lost because he wasn't doing anything. Even if he just came in and posted some paranoid thought about how me or Mindreaver might be scum. Like, I guess he could be IRL busy or whatever but it doesn't feel that way.
I also have stronger townreads on Mindreaver from previous stuff and on Rhand from the talk we just had. I ~guess it could still be Rhand? In which case he's either scum with Cantrip or D_V but not both and if he's scum with Cantrip/shadow we lose by no-voting AG's proposal because you're scum like 90% of the time here by virtue of Brinatoo's inclusion of you.
At some point I have to say "Forget it, this is the world I think it is, and if I'm wrong, oh well."
If I could be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that you and shadow aren't knowingly aligned (that is, that shadow is town or D_V is scum), I'd go back to the "vote AG's quest down and make one of you propose Q3 + AG" plan but. I don't know. I've procrastinated enough today and I don't really have time to reconsider my thoughts here.
It should be noted that since we have to pass whatever shadow proposes, if he proposes a passing quest he's cleared and I'll be putting him in my spot on Q5.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Well I like having a plan at least. I'm going to take the night and re-read Proph and Rhand. If I'm right and Rhand was the fail, then this plan hands the game to scum. But I'll re-evaluate.
@Rhand - is Proph's lurking/not analyzing really that much of a scum tell? Any thoughts you'd like to share would be helpful.
Yes it is. It wasn't at first because there literally wasn't anything to analyze, but town!Proph would get energized by having stuff to analyze.
He would critically think about my analyses and make his own.
@Silver: On a scale of 1-10, how much of your read on me is grounded in the paranoia of getting pocketed by me again? (You know the saying "...fool me twice...")
I dunno. Like. 20% maybe? Could be lowballing due to cognitive bias, etc. but.
Some of the things you did just scream scum at me when I reread those sections. Like trying so very very hard to get 1-for-1'd coming off of Q2 instead of figuring out if the scum was me or D_V. I just don't ever see that as a town mindset. The town mindset is "one of the other two is scum, which is it?" not "one of us three is scum, two of us need to sit out so I'll sit out with one of you."
And then your voting pattern is... convenient? If D_V is town, you voted against Rhand's proposal (probably clean in scum!you worlds) before jumping to yes after it was abundantly clear it wouldn't pass. You were against Cantrip's Q3 but that already had a decent amount of support, I think. It's just too easy for scum to make the votes you made, I guess. And the unvote you made here... it's possible it comes from town, but it's also possible you were hoping to hammer it yes if it got close enough.
I just can't unsee scum!shadow worlds. They both have narratives that make sense and I'm sort of wrestling with which one makes the most sense but I don't want to just lose to you/Osi teams.
Either way I think you win here regardless of your alignment, especially if AG proposes Q3+you. So. Yay for you?
I dunno. Like. 20% maybe? Could be lowballing due to cognitive bias, etc. but.
Some of the things you did just scream scum at me when I reread those sections. Like trying so very very hard to get 1-for-1'd coming off of Q2 instead of figuring out if the scum was me or D_V. I just don't ever see that as a town mindset. The town mindset is "one of the other two is scum, which is it?" not "one of us three is scum, two of us need to sit out so I'll sit out with one of you."
Really? I know I've said this already, but you don't see town taking on the mantle of martyr and being the big darn hero that makes the odds better for town overall? Like, sure I can see why you'd be antsy about it, but you can't see the town mindset at all?
Quote from Silver »
And then your voting pattern is... convenient? If D_V is town, you voted against Rhand's proposal (probably clean in scum!you worlds) before jumping to yes after it was abundantly clear it wouldn't pass. You were against Cantrip's Q3 but that already had a decent amount of support, I think. It's just too easy for scum to make the votes you made, I guess. And the unvote you made here... it's possible it comes from town, but it's also possible you were hoping to hammer it yes if it got close enough.
At least I'm voting, the amount of people that just haven't voted, or voted post hammer is kind of high, don't you think? Also, if I was going to hammer yes, there would be no need to unvote.
Quote from Silver »
I just can't unsee scum!shadow worlds. They both have narratives that make sense and I'm sort of wrestling with which one makes the most sense but I don't want to just lose to you/Osi teams.
Thats reasonable, how possible do you think a "me/Osie as scum together" world is?
Quote from Silver »
Either way I think you win here regardless of your alignment, especially if AG proposes Q3+you. So. Yay for you?
Reading this all, I think I'm now more comfortable with Q3 + Terry than Q3 + Shadow.
Or still Q3 - Proph + Shadow and DV with the hopes I read Proph / Mindreaver correctly.
Reading this all, I think I'm now more comfortable with Q3 + Terry than Q3 + Shadow.
Or still Q3 - Proph + Shadow and DV with the hopes I read Proph / Mindreaver correctly.
I'll pose this question to you as well then, do you think I'm scum that pocketed Terry?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
So after my re-read of Proph and Rhand, I'm very torn. I had trouble finding a game where Proph was actually scum, for comparison. With that in mind, I can see worlds where Rhand is town and trying to solve the game. I'm just not convinced enough to risk it. I think I'm more comfortable with just adding Terry.
@Rhand, or @Proph: Can you give any examples of scum proph? That would help quite a bit.
Not if Proph is Oberon like Rhand said.
I need to look at that more closely because I don't remember exactly what I thought about Oberon failing Q3 and Rhand being town.
(That is to say, I have this faint recollection that Rhand's alignment depends on whether or not Oberon failed Q3 because if he's scum it's either with just D_V or just Cantrip but not both, and he can't be Oberon if he's scum with Cantrip. But I don't remember exactly what I was thinking when I thought that.)
Not if Proph is Oberon like Rhand said.
I need to look at that more closely because I don't remember exactly what I thought about Oberon failing Q3 and Rhand being town.
Oh that's interesting. I was looking at interactions. Didn't consider that specific scenario. hmm.
Does Oberon ever fail a non-lylo quest though? They can't know how many scum on on the quest with them. I wouldn't expect oberon to be a single fail... ever. That would be pretty ballsy.
There's probably an argument for not throwing fails, at least for Q1 and Q2. On the other hand, if you're pretty sure the rest of the quest is town, it's not too risky. And having two fails on Q3 throws the whole game into confusion.
I would have thrown a fail as Oberon on Q3, anyway.
But if Cantrip selected Oberon, he either got lucky as scum or he's town. Probably the latter.
And if Cantrip is town, either D_V is town or Rhand is scum with him.
I think that was where I was going with Rhand's alignment, actually.
I've decided that Rhand is probably town. I hope AG will propose [Silvercrys3467/Vaimes/Rhand/Mindreaver/shadow/D_V] as his Q4. If that proposal fails, we either lose instantly to shadow/Osi teams or whichever of them is town can propose Q3+AG. After that I'll propose the passing Q4 with AG in my spot. That should win the game unless the assassin shoots me.
I'm still not sure on Rhand. I'm going to go back and reread a few things. I could get on board with the quest Silver proposed but swap me out with DV. Even if Rhand is scum, I bet that still passes.
I've been hoping to here some from AG, since the quest is on him.
I doubt there are many better options for a quest, but like I said before- I'll vote for a combination of what I detailed before and now me because I'm not the proposer.
So... are we just going to wait for AG to propose or...?
Does anyone (besides shadow) want to make an argument against Q2+Rhand/Mindreaver?
Would Proph like to say anything at all?
Could AG let us know what he's thinking right now?
So... are we just going to wait for AG to propose or...?
Does anyone (besides shadow) want to make an argument against Q2+Rhand/Mindreaver?
Would Proph like to say anything at all?
Could AG let us know what he's thinking right now?
So... are we just going to wait for AG to propose or...?
Does anyone (besides shadow) want to make an argument against Q2+Rhand/Mindreaver?
Would Proph like to say anything at all?
Could AG let us know what he's thinking right now?
(please?)
Well I am just waiting for AG for the most part. I'd accept a Proph post while I wait
Q2 + Rhand/Mindreaver is fundamentally the same as Q3 - Proph + Shadow + D_V right? Basically we win with 1 fail if proph is the baddie on Q3.
But yes, I think we're at a standstill without AG. I'd still like Rhand to find me a game where Proph is scum, but that's about it.
So he wants to put D_V on a quest, but he also thinks D_V is scum. Huh.
Here he's just. Not doing anything even though we're about to lose. If he's town I'm going to be a bit cross that we're getting nothing at all from him. (I'll get over it though. Life happens. )
But if Oberon is the Q3 fail, Cantrip probably isn't scum. Like, scum!Cantrip proposed a team with just Oberon on it? What are the odds of that unless he knew somehow? I guess D_V could be Oberon but then... Hrm. Well, actually, Terry proposed Q1+Vaimes. That had one fail, then Cantrip took Vaimes and me and proposed a quest with a known buddy on it. Then Oberon!D_V took a shot at making a failing quest by taking you off and putting Cantrip/Osi on, meaning he thought you were town and at least one of them was scum.
That means... town!Terry though, doesn't it? So the team is exactly Brinatoo/Osi/Cantrip/Proph/+D_V?
Oh wait. Why did the scum team not try to push D_V's quest through, then? They didn't even try, they just all voted against it. One of Cantrip/Osi must be town and either the other is Oberon or the Q3 failure was Oberon. Otherwise they should have at least tried to push it through, right? I guess Cantrip could be Oberon and got lucky with Proph. Scum!D_V proposes Oberon!Cantrip with scum!Proph, gets voted down because the rest of the scum team thinks there's only one scum? Mmmm.
On the flip side, in scum!shadow worlds... scum!Terry proposed Q1+Vaimes knowing shadow would fail it, scum!Cantrip proposed known buddy Proph in a group of three to hide him, town!D_V proposed a quest with three scum on it because his reads are terrible... Oh, but Cantrip and D_V can't be w/v if you're town, though. So that doesn't work at all. Town!Cantrip could have proposed a quest with Oberon on it, I guess, but then the team is... shadow/Brinatoo/Osi/Proph/Terry? And Proph/shadow are the only scum that have been voting for the failing proposals while we hang ourselves? And Proph didn't know which proposals would actually fail. I don't think that works either.
My biggest worry is that we no vote here, then Osi/shadow are scum together and we lose when AG proposes shadow as +1.
We need to figure out if there's any chance shadow is scum and convince AG not to propose him, but that will involve finding the last town in [Terry/Cantrip/Osi/Brinatoo] and making it extremely clear who that is and why.
If one of Osi and shadow are town the game is mechanically locked, for what it's worth.
I'm just not convinced that's actually true.
vote: no.
I've decided that Rhand is probably town. I hope AG will propose [Silvercrys3467/Vaimes/Rhand/Mindreaver/shadow/D_V] as his Q4. If that proposal fails, we either lose instantly to shadow/Osi teams or whichever of them is town can propose Q3+AG. After that I'll propose the passing Q4 with AG in my spot. That should win the game unless the assassin shoots me.
I agree completely. I understood him earlier when he said there was nothing to analyse because that does demotivate Proph.
But now we do have stuff to analyse. Lots of it. And he's not doing it. That is his scum meta.
That's somewhat how I've been seeing it... But this game is feel-bad, especially when we likely could have gotten a second pass for town via D_V's quest suggestion if not for most likely Proph's uncertainty (not that I'm begrudging him that or his role, if that's it instead), and this strange, but potentially fortuitous quest from Brinatoo may be voted down as well... This long process for Q4 has led to me reconsidering people who seemed to be rather solidly one way or the other. I felt much more comfortable with my reads going into D_V's quest proposal.
@shadow: Let's say you had to propose a quest right now, and it was guaranteed to actually go through, who's going on your quest, and why?
@iso: Any progress on a replacement for D_V?
Yes (2): osieorb18, Cantripmancer
No (4): Silvercrys3467, D_V, AtheistGod, Mindreaver
Abs (5): TheRealStinkyJoeTerry (formerly No), shadowlancerx (formerly No), Rhand, Prophylaxis, Vaimes
Time remaining: Over by about 45 hrs as of 4:34 on 02/26/17 [Deadline Temporarily Suspended]
Also, Q5 has the same number of players as Q4. So we don't have to add anyone to it. Well, except that if it has you on it you'll have to replace yourself. If shadow doesn't propose the Q4 that passed (and thereby claims scum) I can put D_V on it in my place. I guess if we do Rhand's proposed quest and it passes shadow has to replace himself and D_V, but he can just propose exactly Q3+AG, so.
But yes, I've been saying for a while that scum only need one or two town players to agree with them to get whatever outcome they want on a proposal. That's, like, the entire thing I've been saying when I reread the game and point out vote counts and things. It's not so bad when there's fewer players because there's not so much to keep track of and not so much crazy maneuvering scum can do to be off wagon when it goes through and such. With the number of players we have the vote counts are a bit distorted.
Anyway. Yeah. The plan should be: everyone votes this down. AG proposes Q3(-Proph)(+D_V)(+shadow) and we all vote yes. Osi proposes AG's Q4 and/or shadow proposes Q3+AG for Q5. If Q5 somehow comes to me I can either propose Q3+AG with D_V in my spot (shadow scum claims) or the passing Q4 with AG in my spot.
Game is locked if you trust that AG is town and Proph is scum. If Proph is town he needs to get in here and prove it.
@Rhand - is Proph's lurking/not analyzing really that much of a scum tell? Any thoughts you'd like to share would be helpful.
And regarding taking out proph, I really don't like the plan of adding me and DV.
It looks from D_V's profile that D_V's suspended/banned from the site.
Oh. Huh. I'd been operating under the misassumption that it had 7 players for a while. Huh. Not much difference, anyways. Means there's more of a chance for town, I guess. Well, I guess that's not too bad...
The absences have been taking their toll the whole game, too.
Uhh... What? This just sounds like a bad plan. Since when is Shadow town enough or Proph scum enough to replace Proph with Shadow alongside two uncertainties, at least one of which is probably scum (Rhand, D_V)?
Both of those reads seem unlikely. And if there is a strict dichotomy between AG and myself, AG is scum.
That was my original plan, if that matters. No-vote AG's proposal, have whichever one of you/Osi is town propose Q3+AG. Problem is, we lose to you/Osi if you're both scum and I can't convince myself you're not. And I'd rather not leave it up to the coin flip between you/D_V that this essentially is.
I'm pretty sure at this point that Proph is scum, so this avoids the problem entirely in my mind. Even if you're both scum it won't matter because I can propose AG's quest with him in my spot, if it comes to that.
Yeah, though it doesn't matter who puts forth the proposal, as long as it is remotely likely to go through, like either D_V's or Brinatoo's.
Well, I guess at least we agree on something, in a manner of speaking.
Just because Proph's been missing since last Sunday certainly doesn't confirm a scumread. Proph was also doing work on his own game setup, which is another commitment. He loses energy late game on either team, and I certainly see why. (Heck, I'm sometimes much the same in IRL gaming of this sort.) I'm not entirely sure where Silver's scumread of Proph is coming from.
Unless there's some important question directed towards me, I'm going to focus on IRL stuff for the most part until AG proposes a quest.
I also have stronger townreads on Mindreaver from previous stuff and on Rhand from the talk we just had. I ~guess it could still be Rhand? In which case he's either scum with Cantrip or D_V but not both and if he's scum with Cantrip/shadow we lose by no-voting AG's proposal because you're scum like 90% of the time here by virtue of Brinatoo's inclusion of you.
At some point I have to say "Forget it, this is the world I think it is, and if I'm wrong, oh well."
If I could be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that you and shadow aren't knowingly aligned (that is, that shadow is town or D_V is scum), I'd go back to the "vote AG's quest down and make one of you propose Q3 + AG" plan but. I don't know. I've procrastinated enough today and I don't really have time to reconsider my thoughts here.
It should be noted that since we have to pass whatever shadow proposes, if he proposes a passing quest he's cleared and I'll be putting him in my spot on Q5.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Votes placed after a hammer aren't counted.
I'll look into it.
-
Vaimes, Rhand, Mindreaver, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys3467, osieorb18
Yes (2): osieorb18, Cantripmancer
No (4): Mindreaver, D_V, AtheistGod, Silvercrys3467
6 is majority.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Yes it is. It wasn't at first because there literally wasn't anything to analyze, but town!Proph would get energized by having stuff to analyze.
He would critically think about my analyses and make his own.
I dunno. Like. 20% maybe? Could be lowballing due to cognitive bias, etc. but.
Some of the things you did just scream scum at me when I reread those sections. Like trying so very very hard to get 1-for-1'd coming off of Q2 instead of figuring out if the scum was me or D_V. I just don't ever see that as a town mindset. The town mindset is "one of the other two is scum, which is it?" not "one of us three is scum, two of us need to sit out so I'll sit out with one of you."
And then your voting pattern is... convenient? If D_V is town, you voted against Rhand's proposal (probably clean in scum!you worlds) before jumping to yes after it was abundantly clear it wouldn't pass. You were against Cantrip's Q3 but that already had a decent amount of support, I think. It's just too easy for scum to make the votes you made, I guess. And the unvote you made here... it's possible it comes from town, but it's also possible you were hoping to hammer it yes if it got close enough.
I just can't unsee scum!shadow worlds. They both have narratives that make sense and I'm sort of wrestling with which one makes the most sense but I don't want to just lose to you/Osi teams.
Either way I think you win here regardless of your alignment, especially if AG proposes Q3+you. So. Yay for you?
Or still Q3 - Proph + Shadow and DV with the hopes I read Proph / Mindreaver correctly.
AtheistGod, 5 days, yadda yadda.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@Rhand, or @Proph: Can you give any examples of scum proph? That would help quite a bit.
This Osie quote seems to indicate a town proph (If Osie is scum):
I need to look at that more closely because I don't remember exactly what I thought about Oberon failing Q3 and Rhand being town.
Does Oberon ever fail a non-lylo quest though? They can't know how many scum on on the quest with them. I wouldn't expect oberon to be a single fail... ever. That would be pretty ballsy.
There's probably an argument for not throwing fails, at least for Q1 and Q2. On the other hand, if you're pretty sure the rest of the quest is town, it's not too risky. And having two fails on Q3 throws the whole game into confusion.
I would have thrown a fail as Oberon on Q3, anyway.
But if Cantrip selected Oberon, he either got lucky as scum or he's town. Probably the latter.
And if Cantrip is town, either D_V is town or Rhand is scum with him.
I think that was where I was going with Rhand's alignment, actually.
Seriously, where is everyone?
I think we should stop talking about Oberon. If we win, we don't want scum to know who Oberon is. (another reason why I like AG)
I'm still not sure on Rhand. I'm going to go back and reread a few things. I could get on board with the quest Silver proposed but swap me out with DV. Even if Rhand is scum, I bet that still passes.
I've been hoping to here some from AG, since the quest is on him.
Does anyone (besides shadow) want to make an argument against Q2+Rhand/Mindreaver?
Would Proph like to say anything at all?
Could AG let us know what he's thinking right now?
(please?)
tears.
Q2 + Rhand/Mindreaver is fundamentally the same as Q3 - Proph + Shadow + D_V right? Basically we win with 1 fail if proph is the baddie on Q3.
But yes, I think we're at a standstill without AG. I'd still like Rhand to find me a game where Proph is scum, but that's about it.