I don't know that we get a lot out of the voting order in any case. Without a result, what are even looking at. Lol.
Anyway, I'll just go. Terry's last post resonated quite a bit. Any rebuttal Brin? That's seems pretty damning. I mean I'm trying to figure out if you're just not invested, because I don't feel like we have infinite passes here. But yeah, you nominated your suspect from the last proposal!
Vote No
I will note that I was willing to roll the dice with cantrip/osie. I'm not sure how willing I am for just osie here. And brinatoo started from behind anyway. I appreciate your thoughts, but it does seem like they have a big problem with consistency
Mind, why are you so quick to jump on that *****ty logic he just proposed? And I agree we don't have infinite passes here. That's why I think it makes the most sense to do as I did.
And for all of the confusion concerning me talking about it failing.... obviously I meant my proposal failing and not the quest.... we are in "double lylo" so if you really think I'm that stupid to talk about it failing in that manner... thanks for the inadvertent diss.
Well, I hope I didn't actually diss you there. Wasn't my intent.
Brin you did indeed say that Cantrip was "sure", Osie was "meh", and proph was "gross". That's part of the record. I can't square you then proposing a group with Osie and Proph on it, and no Cantrip. I just don't understand it. And to be 100% clear here, I think *perhaps* if you wanted to be clearer, you could have taken the time to do so. So we've had to do our best with that one word description of the game state. It's not *****ty logic to say you voted no on the lsat one because of proph and Osie. it's not. You did that. and then you proposed them here. it's inconsistent, and it's not something I could vote for. I'm just pissed at myself for not catching it, to be perfectly honest. I really appreciated Terry catching it.
1) Q3+1 doesn't work if there were 2 scum on Q3. Any arguments for there having been 2 scum on Q3 need to be aired.
2) I still like shadow as the +1. I'll do another reread of our options, but Cantrip hasn't really given me strong reads in either direction and I'm getting mixed reads from Terry. There are a lot of little things about shadow I've liked and I haven't seen anything that scummy from him.
One last thing, everyone claim Oberon.
For #1, I think we don't win if that's the case. And it was a masterful Q3 result by scum, and we're just hosed. If we didn't fail Q2, and we had a some wiggle room here, we could entertain the multi-scum solution and try something like remove me/rhand/proph/silver and any other tinfoil suspect. Or have vaimes dictate the proposal (I don't know if that actually helps us or not, seeing as he doesn't have *that* much info, but at least we can be sure of his motives). Anyway, if two scum were on Q3, and exactly one voted fail, that's just going to be a loss. I can't imagine who the second could be. Could be proph? Silver could be oberon, and been been voting pass until this moment? But we probably can't catch that. Not without outing Merlin in the process.
Now, as for adding Shadow. You're probably the last proposer that I actually trust. So do me a favor, and do not pick Shadow. If Shadow is scum, voting for your proposal means we lose, and that he'll have the last proposal to make (one we have to accept). Don't double down. It doesn't have to be Cantrip, I might even suggest Terry at this point. But don't pick Shadow. That gives the scum team too much power if you're wrong.
I agree that if there are two scum on Q3 we're probably just hosed.
That said, it really doesn't come down to anything other than "what do you think Osi's alignment is?" does it?
@Those voting no:
Do you think Osi is scum, then, due to Brinatoo's inconsistency?
If we don't allow this team, who is your pick for Q3 + 1?
Do you think AG and shadow are both town?
I agree that if there are two scum on Q3 we're probably just hosed.
That said, it really doesn't come down to anything other than "what do you think Osi's alignment is?" does it?
@Those voting no:
Do you think Osi is scum, then, due to Brinatoo's inconsistency? Yes
If we don't allow this team, who is your pick for Q3 + 1? Terry is my current favorite. I would accept Cantrip if consensus would rather go that route. D_V is another possibility, but I've been given pause in the last few pages.
Do you think AG and shadow are both town? No
@Those voting no:
Do you think Osi is scum, then, due to Brinatoo's inconsistency?
If we don't allow this team, who is your pick for Q3 + 1?
Do you think AG and shadow are both town?
Regarding Osie, I'm legitimately not sure anymore. I do think AG is town though.
Now, as for adding Shadow. You're probably the last proposer that I actually trust. So do me a favor, and do not pick Shadow. If Shadow is scum, voting for your proposal means we lose, and that he'll have the last proposal to make (one we have to accept). Don't double down. It doesn't have to be Cantrip, I might even suggest Terry at this point. But don't pick Shadow. That gives the scum team too much power if you're wrong.
Do you believe that I'm scum that has pocketed Terry?
Hmm. Why are you not sure now? Is Brinatoo also town? If Brinatoo is scum, is he proposing a quest that will pass for some reason or do you think there are two scum on Q3 somehow?
I think Osi is scum, but when DV voted no it really threw me off. He could be WIFOM, but it messed my confidence on my reads. I'll be back to address Brinatoo's OOC outburst in a minute.
Hmm. Why are you not sure now? Is Brinatoo also town? If Brinatoo is scum, is he proposing a quest that will pass for some reason or do you think there are two scum on Q3 somehow?
Thats what I'm trying to figure out. The interactions between Osie and I lead credence to a theory I'd been mulling over, and then several people voted no to the quest, including DV, whom I believe is scum because I just need to be done tinfoiling you.
I think that it's entirely possible that Brin is scum and knew that he's not have a quest passed regardless, so why not play up on that and condemn a possible town!osie. It's a risky play, but possible, so I'm trying to figure out what scenarios make sense historically this game too.
He leave's the two people he had misgivings about from the last proposal on this one AND adds the other person he suspected could have failed the previous quest in place of Cantrip who seems pretty town.
That's inaccurate. I don't think both Rhand AND Proph are scum. I believe it was one of them that failed it NOT BOTH. So my logic is that the other + everyone else (including my +1) would be town WHICH IS WHAT WE WANT.
Vote: No Brinatoo just proposed a quest that he knew would fail. This looks to me like he pulled cantrip and replaced him with a scum buddy in order to get to the two fails the scum team needs to win this game. This would also imply that Mindreaver is town.
Let me go over again numbers since you appear to be flinging mud on the whole situation. The DV proposal was Prophylaxis, Mindreaver, Silvercrys3467, Vaimes, Cantripmancer, osieorb18. Osie AND Cantrip are new variables and Rhand was removed from the equation. With my proposal I'm asking either Osie OR Cantrip as only ONE NEW VARIABLE! Statistically it makes the most sense to go for one more town and assume there was 4 town on Q3. That's our best chance imo.
I don't know that we get a lot out of the voting order in any case. Without a result, what are even looking at. Lol.
Anyway, I'll just go. Terry's last post resonated quite a bit. Any rebuttal Brin? That's seems pretty damning. I mean I'm trying to figure out if you're just not invested, because I don't feel like we have infinite passes here. But yeah, you nominated your suspect from the last proposal!
Vote No
I will note that I was willing to roll the dice with cantrip/osie. I'm not sure how willing I am for just osie here. And brinatoo started from behind anyway. I appreciate your thoughts, but it does seem like they have a big problem with consistency
Mind, why are you so quick to jump on that *****ty logic he just proposed? And I agree we don't have infinite passes here. That's why I think it makes the most sense to do as I did.
And for all of the confusion concerning me talking about it failing.... obviously I meant my proposal failing and not the quest.... we are in "double lylo" so if you really think I'm that stupid to talk about it failing in that manner... thanks for the inadvertent diss.
So your reads went from:
Proph (50-50 scum with Rhand)
Mindreaver (town)
Silver (town)
Vaimes (town)
Cantrip (town)
Osi (Unknown)
You voted no and then went to:
Proph (50-50 scum with Rhand)
Mindreaver (town)
Silver (town)
Vaimes (town)
Rhand (50-50 scum with Proph)
Osi (Unknown)
So what you did here was guarantee (according to your own words) that there is one scum and Osi (who is under a lot of heat). In order to do that, you removed Cantrip, who you read as town. How is this bad logic?
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2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
So I'm torn...this would have been a high Q3+1 pick for me, as Osie's done a good job of convincing me that he's town. But I haven't gotten enough from Brin to trust him, and his progression is definitely odd.
So I guess I'm at a similar place on this proposal as the last one: One of Mind, Proph, or Rhand is scum, and the question is whether Osie is town or not. As has been mentioned, if two of Mind/Proph/Rhand are scum, I think we're toast no matter what.
We had a lot of discussion between when Brin made his response to DV's proposal and when Brin made his own, and I could see Brin reassessing based on that...but he hasn't mentioned that. In fact, he seemed a little offended that Terry and Mind were questioning him.
Eh, I'd like Brin to respond again, but I'm still leaning toward voting yes on this. It feels right.
So here's my proposal: Vaimes, Rhand, Mindreaver, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys3467, osieorb18
While I remember being skeptical of osie's play/accusations early in the game- my gut is telling me it's their playstyle and not indicative of scumalignment. The only other recommendation I would have if this fails is to swap out for Cantrip maybe? TBH I think it's Proph who failed it and taking them off for cantrip completely would be my best judgement- but I'm also not going to argue a gut-decision vs. logical-decision (a Q+1 is always a better choice statistically)
How would anyone pass this when Brin literally said that.
Osie's play is skeptical, his gut says its not indicative of scum alignment. But notice how he doesn't say it is a reason to town read Osie. He just throws dirt at Osie and then throws him on the quest yolo style.
So, why even put Proph on the damn quest if you think he failed it.
I'd love to hear comments on my post #1211 if you're voting yes on this quest. I really want an excuse to vote yes since DV came in with a NO, but Osi's logic doesn't do it for me.
Dunno, but. He's not really been here or said much anyway so I'm not sure what you expected.
A better question might be "where's Proph?" He hasn't said anything about the current proposal at all, has he?
I think I'm going to vote no. Think. I'll give it another day or so, we should have time if Iso sets a regular deadline tonight when he catches up.
Dunno, but. He's not really been here or said much anyway so I'm not sure what you expected.
A better question might be "where's Proph?" He hasn't said anything about the current proposal at all, has he?
I think I'm going to vote no. Think. I'll give it another day or so, we should have time if Iso sets a regular deadline tonight when he catches up.
Dunno, but. He's not really been here or said much anyway so I'm not sure what you expected.
A better question might be "where's Proph?" He hasn't said anything about the current proposal at all, has he?
I expect him to respond to the questions he's been asked regarding his proposal.
But yes, it'd be nice if Proph (and Rhand, but we knew he was away and he's indicated he'll post soon) chimed in.
@shadow: I guess I do. I'm not super confident in that read, but voting no means I'm saying that, hmm?
I would like to send Q3 plus AG, to be honest. I think there's a very good chance that team wins us the game. But AG can't propose himself. The only way I can get that team is if you or Osi is town and proposes it for me.
Basically, if I no-vote I'm betting the game that the team is D_V/Cantrip/Osi/Brinatoo/+1 on Q3 (and either AG proposes you to win and I get overridden or you propose him to win).
There's also the world where I'm totally wrong and Cantrip is somehow town. In that world, you're scum because Rhand's Q2 proposal was clean and that's why scum didn't vote for it. In which case AG either has to not propose you or his proposal gets no-voted and Osi proposes him as the +1. And I'll be cross with myself because I dragged this out an extra two proposals for no reason.
In the world where you're scum together, if AG proposes you as the +1 we instantly lose, so I'm just going to hope that's not true.
Or I could roll the dice and try to make this proposal pass, but. I'm still deciding.
@Silver: FWIW I think AG has shown some super strong towniness and I would be happy with Q3 plus him. The fact that DV voted no with the reasons he did is really making me doubt my Osie read, but I think I'd still prefer to no vote this quest and see what AG proposes instead (and yes, that is strongly influence by AG expressing intent to put me on the quest).
Scum!D_V and Scum!Cantrip implies one additional scum on D_V's proposal, which is Proph, Osi, or Mindreaver.
So you ~could both be town if Proph is scum, I guess. It's almost never Mindreaver, I think? Meh.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Scum!D_V and Scum!Cantrip implies one additional scum on D_V's proposal, which is Proph, Osi, or Mindreaver.
So you ~could both be town if Proph is scum, I guess. It's almost never Mindreaver, I think? Meh.
Scum!D_V and Scum!Cantrip implies one additional scum on D_V's proposal, which is Proph, Osi, or Mindreaver.
So you ~could both be town if Proph is scum, I guess. It's almost never Mindreaver, I think? Meh.
Thoughts on this grouping:
Mindreaver
DV
Brin
Cantrip
+1
Brinatoo proposed a clean team just now unless the +1 is Proph or Rhand and one of them gambled by throwing a pass on Q3.
So... Probably not? I can't really see Brin being scum unless Osi is.
As for Cantrip/D_V teams, that implies Rhand is town because he proposed those two together for Q2, and therefore that the scum on Q3 was either Mindreaver or Proph. But... I still don't think it's ever Mindreaver.
Hey I'm here, so if you guys have questions or whatever, ask away. I'm also fine if it's better for you to bounce things off of each other without my input.
Hey I'm here, so if you guys have questions or whatever, ask away. I'm also fine if it's better for you to bounce things off of each other without my input.
This is back to the past, but.
Do you think it's more likely that Rhand is scum with D_V or Cantrip, or that D_V and Cantrip are scum together and Rhand is town, or that Rhand's Q2 proposal was clean and he is town?
Hey I'm here, so if you guys have questions or whatever, ask away. I'm also fine if it's better for you to bounce things off of each other without my input.
This is back to the past, but.
Do you think it's more likely that Rhand is scum with D_V or Cantrip, or that D_V and Cantrip are scum together and Rhand is town, or that Rhand's Q2 proposal was clean and he is town?
I think looking at Rhand's proposal now gives use three possibilities:
1) D_V OR Cantrip is scum
2) You could be scum, and they are both town
3) Rhand is town, and we can't draw any conclusions on that proposal
I suspect, it's #1, and I'd be hard pressed to tell which (although I've been leaning Cantrip most of the game, and D_V lately has been tough). But I don't think scum!rhand proposes a group with 2 scum on it, at that point in the game. So no, I don't think they are both scum together.
You think Rhand is scum, then, and one of them is his partner?
If Rhand is town, either they're both town and shadow is scum or they're scum together. That's not quite "useless" but it's. Hmm. Not super helpful without knowing one of their alignments, either.
I don't know that we get a lot out of the voting order in any case. Without a result, what are even looking at. Lol.
Anyway, I'll just go. Terry's last post resonated quite a bit. Any rebuttal Brin? That's seems pretty damning. I mean I'm trying to figure out if you're just not invested, because I don't feel like we have infinite passes here. But yeah, you nominated your suspect from the last proposal!
Vote No
I will note that I was willing to roll the dice with cantrip/osie. I'm not sure how willing I am for just osie here. And brinatoo started from behind anyway. I appreciate your thoughts, but it does seem like they have a big problem with consistency
Mind, why are you so quick to jump on that *****ty logic he just proposed? And I agree we don't have infinite passes here. That's why I think it makes the most sense to do as I did.
And for all of the confusion concerning me talking about it failing.... obviously I meant my proposal failing and not the quest.... we are in "double lylo" so if you really think I'm that stupid to talk about it failing in that manner... thanks for the inadvertent diss.
Well, I hope I didn't actually diss you there. Wasn't my intent.
Brin you did indeed say that Cantrip was "sure", Osie was "meh", and proph was "gross". That's part of the record. I can't square you then proposing a group with Osie and Proph on it, and no Cantrip. I just don't understand it. And to be 100% clear here, I think *perhaps* if you wanted to be clearer, you could have taken the time to do so. So we've had to do our best with that one word description of the game state. It's not *****ty logic to say you voted no on the lsat one because of proph and Osie. it's not. You did that. and then you proposed them here. it's inconsistent, and it's not something I could vote for. I'm just pissed at myself for not catching it, to be perfectly honest. I really appreciated Terry catching it.
Apologies for onelined opinions. Sure and meh are kinda neutral for me, I could go into depth about my gutreads from a week ago when my focus has been my studies, but yea I doubt I could accurately describe what I was feeling then. I've gone over the logic with leaving Proph on there. It's a numbers game, if there was only 1 scum on that Q3 failure then it really only comes down to adding one more town to clinch this W. Hence why I'm equally fine with Cantrip/Osie taking that spot. And what everyone is getting confused about- is that my preferred lineup would be swapping out Proph for Cantrip to put even more cushion for if someone scum did gambit a yes on that Q3. But I'm already aware that that is statistically the wrong choice and probably won't be agreed upon by everyone else. (I'm also trying to put my best consensus idea forward) in case others come up with even worse ideas after me and we vote no 5 times in a row.
So I'm torn...this would have been a high Q3+1 pick for me, as Osie's done a good job of convincing me that he's town. But I haven't gotten enough from Brin to trust him, and his progression is definitely odd.
So I guess I'm at a similar place on this proposal as the last one: One of Mind, Proph, or Rhand is scum, and the question is whether Osie is town or not. As has been mentioned, if two of Mind/Proph/Rhand are scum, I think we're toast no matter what.
We had a lot of discussion between when Brin made his response to DV's proposal and when Brin made his own, and I could see Brin reassessing based on that...but he hasn't mentioned that. In fact, he seemed a little offended that Terry and Mind were questioning him.
Eh, I'd like Brin to respond again, but I'm still leaning toward voting yes on this. It feels right.
I would be disappointed in myself if I didn't possess the mental capacity to be aware of a double lylo situation.
So here's my proposal: Vaimes, Rhand, Mindreaver, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys3467, osieorb18
While I remember being skeptical of osie's play/accusations early in the game- my gut is telling me it's their playstyle and not indicative of scumalignment. The only other recommendation I would have if this fails is to swap out for Cantrip maybe? TBH I think it's Proph who failed it and taking them off for cantrip completely would be my best judgement- but I'm also not going to argue a gut-decision vs. logical-decision (a Q+1 is always a better choice statistically)
How would anyone pass this when Brin literally said that.
Osie's play is skeptical, his gut says its not indicative of scum alignment. But notice how he doesn't say it is a reason to town read Osie. He just throws dirt at Osie and then throws him on the quest yolo style.
So, why even put Proph on the damn quest if you think he failed it.
I don't really understand what you are getting at, Are you confused about where I talk about subbing out Proph for Cantrip? Your argument about "why even put Proph on" is not even remotely close to anything if we are arguing about osie. And with Osie, you kind of answer your own jab that my opinion of him changed over time... shocking.
You think Rhand is scum, then, and one of them is his partner?
If Rhand is town, either they're both town and shadow is scum or they're scum together. That's not quite "useless" but it's. Hmm. Not super helpful without knowing one of their alignments, either.
Yes I do. The other possibilities start to get out there. In addition to what you have there, a town!rhand means a scum!proph. And if proph is scum, I think comments Brin has made during this proposal and the last one are probably something we need to look at. Specifically the ones where he was going to take him off for cantrip and didn't.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Dear Prophylaxis,
In your absence, Brinatoo has proposed me, Vaimes, you, Mindreaver, Rhand, Osieorb18 (Q3 + Osi).
Please skim/reread/look at votals/etc. and let me know:
(1) Assuming you are town, do you prefer Mindreaver or Rhand for scum on Q3?
(2) If Rhand is scum, do you agree that it's likely D_V or Cantrip is scum with him due to his Q2 proposal (Me/Vaimes/D_V/Cantrip)?
--> (2a) If yes, do you think it is more likely D_V or Cantrip?
--> (2b) If no, why not?
(3) If Mindreaver is scum, do you agree that it's likely D_V and Cantrip are either town together or scum together due to Rhand's Q2 proposal being no-voted?
--> (3a) If yes, do you think it is more likely that they are scum together or town together?
--> (3b) If no, why not?
(4) What do you think about Osi/Brin?
You can easily find my logic by isoing me.
TIA.
~Silver.
@Mindreaver: You missed my question wrt your Terry read. If Terry is your top pick for quester, do you believe that I'm scum who has pocketed him?
TBH, if you'd asked me ~4 days ago, I'd have said yes. I think your scum, and D_V and silver is town. I'm shaky a little on that. I'm still convinced there is scum between you and D_V.
So no, I don't think you've "pocketed" Terry. I think your play is largely irrelevant for him. He's been on a "D_V is scum for sure" mindset for the entire game, and if he's paying attention now, I can respect him thinking it's D_V and not you. D_V is coming off erratic, and I've seen similar D_V stuff as town before too. Until he ended up dead in trigger happy I probably would have mislynched him at the end. And to be fair, you've had some posts that were fairly convincing as scum as well.
And as an aside, I didn't think I'd get to this state where Terry was my choice. I'm nervous about Rhand/Cantrip, and obviously you and D_V are a dichotomy; I'm not as sure as I was going into the last quest. AG is also possible, but he's going to be proposing. Osie is pretty firmly scum, and that leaves the game to you; which as I mentioned *might* be a mistake if you're the baddie.
Mkay. I really like Shadow now with the whole osie not snap-voting interaction. I'm not sure what it says about Osie though. Both town AND scum would want to vote yes there.
Q3 + Shadow would be my favorite team now.
I'm getting more and more convinced that Proph is the scum on Q3. I would accept Q3 - Proph + Shadow + D_V as well.
I'm also pretty sure we're facing scum!Cantrip and town!AG. Q3 + AG is my second favorite option.
Because of POE, Brin and Osie are probably scum:
1 scum in Q3 (me, Silver, Vaimes, Mindreaver, Proph): probably Proph
1 scum in Q2 (Silver, Vaimes, D_V, Shadow): probably D_V
That means 5 town out of 7 locked: me, Silver, Vaimes, Mindreaver, Shadow (with chance of Proph / D_V instead of the last two)
So only 2 town are missing (and 3 scum)
Remaining people:
AG (townread)
Terry
Cantrip (scumread)
Brinatoo
Osie
If I'm right about AG, there's only 1 town in that other 4. If Brinatoo is scum, then Osie is scum (or he wouldn't have proposed him).
If Brinatoo is town, then Osie is still scum (because there's no more town left).
So I'm for sure voting no on this one.
And I think the scumteam is: D_V / Proph / Cantrip / Brinatoo / Osie
@Rhand: I was thinking the same thing about Proph, to be honest, but. I'm paranoid because you said it and it's such an easy push to make because he's not here.
And there's a thing I don't get. In D_V/Osi/Cantrip/Proph worlds, D_V removed town!you from his proposal and put Osi/Cantrip on. That means if D_V is scum, he either put 3 scum on his proposal or you're scum with them. And shadow/Terry unvoted when they thought this proposal was going to be quick hammered "no," which could be if they're scum with Osi but wanted to appear to be against the quest. Thoughts on that?
(I think I convinced myself of a thing but I want your take on it first.)
I guess your teambuilding exercise is just objectively true, though? Like, regardless of who is scum on Q2 and Q3 if AG is town Brinatoo and Osi can't both be town.
I understand your paranoia. It's hard to trust anyone in a game without flips :/
DV already announced he was going to think I was the fail vote. He couldn't go back on that.
Most of my scumreads come from POE. One of them is unknown by the other scum. It's very well possible that scum!D_V put that one on there without realizing, so in his worldview, he might have put 2 scum on there instead of 3. Or he did put 3 scum on it... it's not like they lose if that gets voted through
What Terry and shadow did can very well come from town: they don't want a quick no hammer because that gives us less to analyse as in that case many players don't vote at all.
Cantrip just confirmed himself as scum to me. Right after my post where I explain that Osie can't be town in a world where AG is town, he says he would be ok with Q3 + AG while voting yes to Q3 + Osie.
* Vaimes: town (follows DV)
* Wants Q1+1 for Q2 (which failed)
* D_V: town at first. Pushes for an auto-include of him in quests. Drops him after counterclaim. Then thinks he’s the Q2 fail vote over shadow
* Mind: town (unscripted approach to Q1 proposal)
* Silver: town (Q2 failure + meta)
* Shadow: lean town (by default because he thinks DV failed Q2 over him)
* Proph: scum (“gross” after the Q3 fail. He thinks Proph or me failed it)
* Cantrip: town (no explanation or earlier mention)
* Osie: null (no explanation or earlier mention. I translated “meh” to null, that’s all he ever said about him)
And then comes the proposal:
Vaimes, Mind, Silver match his reads.
Rhand, Proph makes sense since he thinks one of us failed Q3, and he’s going for Q3+1.
But Osie? He never mentioned anything else but “meh” (and that “meh” was part of the reason to say no to a proposal earlier). He says he would swap him out for Cantrip, which makes a lot more sense in his earlier reads.
He never considers Terry, AG or shadow.
Terry and AG he didn’t even bother to get a read on the whole game.
And Shadow should be the logical choice for him since he thinks DV failed Q2.
Yeh I’m convinced. Brinatoo is scum, and by proxy so is Osie.
the whole osie not snap-voting interaction. I'm not sure what it says about Osie though. Both town AND scum would want to vote yes there.
I just wanted to jump in for a second to comment on this. Given my previous scumread on Brinatoo, I was confused when he suggested a quest that I thought would pass. So I had to look closely at it before deciding on a vote. Eventually I figured that it wasn't an issue and that the quest is likely to pass regardless of Brin's alignment.
Brin you did indeed say that Cantrip was "sure", Osie was "meh", and proph was "gross". That's part of the record. I can't square you then proposing a group with Osie and Proph on it, and no Cantrip. I just don't understand it. And to be 100% clear here, I think *perhaps* if you wanted to be clearer, you could have taken the time to do so. So we've had to do our best with that one word description of the game state. It's not *****ty logic to say you voted no on the lsat one because of proph and Osie. it's not. You did that. and then you proposed them here. it's inconsistent, and it's not something I could vote for. I'm just pissed at myself for not catching it, to be perfectly honest. I really appreciated Terry catching it.
For #1, I think we don't win if that's the case. And it was a masterful Q3 result by scum, and we're just hosed. If we didn't fail Q2, and we had a some wiggle room here, we could entertain the multi-scum solution and try something like remove me/rhand/proph/silver and any other tinfoil suspect. Or have vaimes dictate the proposal (I don't know if that actually helps us or not, seeing as he doesn't have *that* much info, but at least we can be sure of his motives). Anyway, if two scum were on Q3, and exactly one voted fail, that's just going to be a loss. I can't imagine who the second could be. Could be proph? Silver could be oberon, and been been voting pass until this moment? But we probably can't catch that. Not without outing Merlin in the process.
Now, as for adding Shadow. You're probably the last proposer that I actually trust. So do me a favor, and do not pick Shadow. If Shadow is scum, voting for your proposal means we lose, and that he'll have the last proposal to make (one we have to accept). Don't double down. It doesn't have to be Cantrip, I might even suggest Terry at this point. But don't pick Shadow. That gives the scum team too much power if you're wrong.
That said, it really doesn't come down to anything other than "what do you think Osi's alignment is?" does it?
@Those voting no:
Do you think Osi is scum, then, due to Brinatoo's inconsistency?
If we don't allow this team, who is your pick for Q3 + 1?
Do you think AG and shadow are both town?
Did you think Osi was town or scum when you voted no?
I think that it's entirely possible that Brin is scum and knew that he's not have a quest passed regardless, so why not play up on that and condemn a possible town!osie. It's a risky play, but possible, so I'm trying to figure out what scenarios make sense historically this game too.
Proph (50-50 scum with Rhand)
Mindreaver (town)
Silver (town)
Vaimes (town)
Cantrip (town)
Osi (Unknown)
You voted no and then went to:
Proph (50-50 scum with Rhand)
Mindreaver (town)
Silver (town)
Vaimes (town)
Rhand (50-50 scum with Proph)
Osi (Unknown)
So what you did here was guarantee (according to your own words) that there is one scum and Osi (who is under a lot of heat). In order to do that, you removed Cantrip, who you read as town. How is this bad logic?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
So I guess I'm at a similar place on this proposal as the last one: One of Mind, Proph, or Rhand is scum, and the question is whether Osie is town or not. As has been mentioned, if two of Mind/Proph/Rhand are scum, I think we're toast no matter what.
We had a lot of discussion between when Brin made his response to DV's proposal and when Brin made his own, and I could see Brin reassessing based on that...but he hasn't mentioned that. In fact, he seemed a little offended that Terry and Mind were questioning him.
Eh, I'd like Brin to respond again, but I'm still leaning toward voting yes on this. It feels right.
How would anyone pass this when Brin literally said that.
Osie's play is skeptical, his gut says its not indicative of scum alignment. But notice how he doesn't say it is a reason to town read Osie. He just throws dirt at Osie and then throws him on the quest yolo style.
So, why even put Proph on the damn quest if you think he failed it.
Didn't Brin not like Mind?
Rereading.
I'm struggling between some ideas.
With the current amount of information, if this would be guaranteed to go through, I'd go for:
Q3-1+2: Silver + Vaimes + Mindreaver + Proph + D_V + Cantrip
If it absolutely had to be Q3+1, at this moment, I'd go with Cantrip.
*Whew* I've been sitting on this post for almost an hour and a half pondering about this.
I'll catch up tomorrow.
Alright, why replace Rhand with DV specifically?
Because I believe that D_V is more likely town than the other options at the moment.
In regards to further questions, feel free to ask, but I will be busy until late this evening, with maybe a quick jump on midevening.
A better question might be "where's Proph?" He hasn't said anything about the current proposal at all, has he?
I think I'm going to vote no. Think. I'll give it another day or so, we should have time if Iso sets a regular deadline tonight when he catches up.
But yes, it'd be nice if Proph (and Rhand, but we knew he was away and he's indicated he'll post soon) chimed in.
I would like to send Q3 plus AG, to be honest. I think there's a very good chance that team wins us the game. But AG can't propose himself. The only way I can get that team is if you or Osi is town and proposes it for me.
Basically, if I no-vote I'm betting the game that the team is D_V/Cantrip/Osi/Brinatoo/+1 on Q3 (and either AG proposes you to win and I get overridden or you propose him to win).
There's also the world where I'm totally wrong and Cantrip is somehow town. In that world, you're scum because Rhand's Q2 proposal was clean and that's why scum didn't vote for it. In which case AG either has to not propose you or his proposal gets no-voted and Osi proposes him as the +1. And I'll be cross with myself because I dragged this out an extra two proposals for no reason.
In the world where you're scum together, if AG proposes you as the +1 we instantly lose, so I'm just going to hope that's not true.
Or I could roll the dice and try to make this proposal pass, but. I'm still deciding.
Town!shadow = scum!D_V.
Scum!D_V implies scum!Cantrip.
Scum!D_V and Scum!Cantrip implies one additional scum on D_V's proposal, which is Proph, Osi, or Mindreaver.
So you ~could both be town if Proph is scum, I guess. It's almost never Mindreaver, I think? Meh.
Yes, as I mentioned.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Mindreaver
DV
Brin
Cantrip
+1
Brinatoo proposed a clean team just now unless the +1 is Proph or Rhand and one of them gambled by throwing a pass on Q3.
So... Probably not? I can't really see Brin being scum unless Osi is.
As for Cantrip/D_V teams, that implies Rhand is town because he proposed those two together for Q2, and therefore that the scum on Q3 was either Mindreaver or Proph. But... I still don't think it's ever Mindreaver.
Do you think it's more likely that Rhand is scum with D_V or Cantrip, or that D_V and Cantrip are scum together and Rhand is town, or that Rhand's Q2 proposal was clean and he is town?
1) D_V OR Cantrip is scum
2) You could be scum, and they are both town
3) Rhand is town, and we can't draw any conclusions on that proposal
I suspect, it's #1, and I'd be hard pressed to tell which (although I've been leaning Cantrip most of the game, and D_V lately has been tough). But I don't think scum!rhand proposes a group with 2 scum on it, at that point in the game. So no, I don't think they are both scum together.
If Rhand is town, either they're both town and shadow is scum or they're scum together. That's not quite "useless" but it's. Hmm. Not super helpful without knowing one of their alignments, either.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
In your absence, Brinatoo has proposed me, Vaimes, you, Mindreaver, Rhand, Osieorb18 (Q3 + Osi).
Please skim/reread/look at votals/etc. and let me know:
(1) Assuming you are town, do you prefer Mindreaver or Rhand for scum on Q3?
(2) If Rhand is scum, do you agree that it's likely D_V or Cantrip is scum with him due to his Q2 proposal (Me/Vaimes/D_V/Cantrip)?
--> (2a) If yes, do you think it is more likely D_V or Cantrip?
--> (2b) If no, why not?
(3) If Mindreaver is scum, do you agree that it's likely D_V and Cantrip are either town together or scum together due to Rhand's Q2 proposal being no-voted?
--> (3a) If yes, do you think it is more likely that they are scum together or town together?
--> (3b) If no, why not?
(4) What do you think about Osi/Brin?
You can easily find my logic by isoing me.
TIA.
~Silver.
So no, I don't think you've "pocketed" Terry. I think your play is largely irrelevant for him. He's been on a "D_V is scum for sure" mindset for the entire game, and if he's paying attention now, I can respect him thinking it's D_V and not you. D_V is coming off erratic, and I've seen similar D_V stuff as town before too. Until he ended up dead in trigger happy I probably would have mislynched him at the end. And to be fair, you've had some posts that were fairly convincing as scum as well.
And as an aside, I didn't think I'd get to this state where Terry was my choice. I'm nervous about Rhand/Cantrip, and obviously you and D_V are a dichotomy; I'm not as sure as I was going into the last quest. AG is also possible, but he's going to be proposing. Osie is pretty firmly scum, and that leaves the game to you; which as I mentioned *might* be a mistake if you're the baddie.
Q3 + Shadow would be my favorite team now.
I'm getting more and more convinced that Proph is the scum on Q3. I would accept Q3 - Proph + Shadow + D_V as well.
I'm also pretty sure we're facing scum!Cantrip and town!AG. Q3 + AG is my second favorite option.
Because of POE, Brin and Osie are probably scum:
1 scum in Q3 (me, Silver, Vaimes, Mindreaver, Proph): probably Proph
1 scum in Q2 (Silver, Vaimes, D_V, Shadow): probably D_V
That means 5 town out of 7 locked: me, Silver, Vaimes, Mindreaver, Shadow (with chance of Proph / D_V instead of the last two)
So only 2 town are missing (and 3 scum)
Remaining people:
AG (townread)
Terry
Cantrip (scumread)
Brinatoo
Osie
If I'm right about AG, there's only 1 town in that other 4. If Brinatoo is scum, then Osie is scum (or he wouldn't have proposed him).
If Brinatoo is town, then Osie is still scum (because there's no more town left).
So I'm for sure voting no on this one.
And I think the scumteam is: D_V / Proph / Cantrip / Brinatoo / Osie
Vote Yes on Brin's proposal.
I'd be ok with Q3+AG, but not entirely sure about Q3+Shadow.
More tomorrow.
And there's a thing I don't get. In D_V/Osi/Cantrip/Proph worlds, D_V removed town!you from his proposal and put Osi/Cantrip on. That means if D_V is scum, he either put 3 scum on his proposal or you're scum with them. And shadow/Terry unvoted when they thought this proposal was going to be quick hammered "no," which could be if they're scum with Osi but wanted to appear to be against the quest. Thoughts on that?
(I think I convinced myself of a thing but I want your take on it first.)
I guess your teambuilding exercise is just objectively true, though? Like, regardless of who is scum on Q2 and Q3 if AG is town Brinatoo and Osi can't both be town.
DV already announced he was going to think I was the fail vote. He couldn't go back on that.
Most of my scumreads come from POE. One of them is unknown by the other scum. It's very well possible that scum!D_V put that one on there without realizing, so in his worldview, he might have put 2 scum on there instead of 3. Or he did put 3 scum on it... it's not like they lose if that gets voted through
What Terry and shadow did can very well come from town: they don't want a quick no hammer because that gives us less to analyse as in that case many players don't vote at all.
Cantrip just confirmed himself as scum to me. Right after my post where I explain that Osie can't be town in a world where AG is town, he says he would be ok with Q3 + AG while voting yes to Q3 + Osie.
* Vaimes: town (follows DV)
* Wants Q1+1 for Q2 (which failed)
* D_V: town at first. Pushes for an auto-include of him in quests. Drops him after counterclaim. Then thinks he’s the Q2 fail vote over shadow
* Mind: town (unscripted approach to Q1 proposal)
* Silver: town (Q2 failure + meta)
* Shadow: lean town (by default because he thinks DV failed Q2 over him)
* Proph: scum (“gross” after the Q3 fail. He thinks Proph or me failed it)
* Cantrip: town (no explanation or earlier mention)
* Osie: null (no explanation or earlier mention. I translated “meh” to null, that’s all he ever said about him)
And then comes the proposal:
Vaimes, Mind, Silver match his reads.
Rhand, Proph makes sense since he thinks one of us failed Q3, and he’s going for Q3+1.
But Osie? He never mentioned anything else but “meh” (and that “meh” was part of the reason to say no to a proposal earlier). He says he would swap him out for Cantrip, which makes a lot more sense in his earlier reads.
He never considers Terry, AG or shadow.
Terry and AG he didn’t even bother to get a read on the whole game.
And Shadow should be the logical choice for him since he thinks DV failed Q2.
Yeh I’m convinced. Brinatoo is scum, and by proxy so is Osie.
I just wanted to jump in for a second to comment on this. Given my previous scumread on Brinatoo, I was confused when he suggested a quest that I thought would pass. So I had to look closely at it before deciding on a vote. Eventually I figured that it wasn't an issue and that the quest is likely to pass regardless of Brin's alignment.