MTG Salvation

Vote fulcrum

Quote from Iso »

Yes, please Vig me toNight and put me out of my misery.

My only qualm with the plan is that I think Rhand has a strong chance of being the 4th scum, at this point. I don't think scumCantrip would cede to frustratedIso, and would be willing to still push that lynch prior to the Vig reveal. That means that Rhand is infinitely more likely to be the 4th scum than Cantrip at this point.

So, lynch fonti, Vig me, Jail Hunt, see what happens. But in an endgame scenario where Rhand is alive, please lynch him. That said, based on role analysis, I think Hunt is a better lynch than Rhand at this point.

This feels wrong. You don't mention at all that vigging you if Fulcrum flips town would make us lose. Which in your town!view we should?

I have 5 minutes to write everything so it's gonna be rushed and lots of typos and errors and ugly format, no time to readproof. Sorry in advance!

@Cantrip regarding members of mafia left I figured it was 3 or 4 mafia total, and I approached my actions in worst case scenario meaning I thought if there are 3 mafia are left then if I kill town and mafia gets their NK at that point we lose because there are equal number of town members and mafia. I still have no idea how many are left, all those speculations by Rhand, Iso and co. are like chinese to me, it seems weird to me town can mislynch 3 times and still win so I'm thinking there are 3 left but hopefully I'm wrong because that means the game is on the line here.

Regarding D_V in cops game - his gambit was kinda successful, he got lynched but mafia won overall, part of that was because his gambit made it look like he was mafia partners with Shadow who was actually town.

I was completely masking my frustration because I didn't want mafia to know I did anything that night, but believe me I was really annoyed at reading the game for hours only for my shot to won't matter at the end. I agree though it would also be likely to be masked by mafia but I feel both the vig and mafia would desperately avoid showing any signs they did anything at night. For me I thought if I show any signs that something went wrong at night that's basically claiming PR and mafia will kill me, so yeah of course I did anything to mask it.

Quote from Cantrip »

...this feels a little off coming from a vig. This would feel like a natural time for a vig to innocently say "Did you even consider the fact that you might be vigged for acting so crazily?"

No way I would never mentioned the possibility of a vig at any circumstance in this game. Like I said the further I could post from that, then that's what I did.

Quote from Cantrip »

The end of that post you do speculate on the possibility of a jailer + doctor combo (+likelihood you're vig), but then ask if it's wrong to want DV to stay in the game for entertainment value (which I don't see as likely to come from vig).

Nice! I forgot about that! I actually posted this on purpose to trick D_V. So what happened I started thinking that there is a chance that D_V is mafia that knew somehow that he got shot and the shot failed (I don't know much abot mafia roles but I thought it might exist) and this would make him think it's not me.

Quote from Cantrip »

850 you shift your attention away from DV and onto Hunt. If you felt strongly enough about DV to vig him N1, what convinced you to move away from his lynch on D2?

When Shadow claimed Jailor and explained he thought D_V I didn't want to lynch D_V as much as thought he is probably town.

853: First off, what did you mean when you said "Someone is hungry"?

Lol D_V called me Meat0r.

Quote from Cantrip »

Second, you list three possibilities: DV is town because of how he speculated on the lack of NK, or Still not sure why you didn't vig N2.

I will explain again - I didn't trust my reads and figured I'm probably not the mafia target that night.

I probably missed lots of stuff, more tomorrow when life settles down.

I will Vig whoever the majority wants me to Vig. Sorry fulcrum but I don't trust you - it would be in your best interest to lie and say you are gonna roleblock someone else. From my POV I have to lynch you. Sorry!

Also, Shadow I completely agree that scum!Iso likely never says it and probably its town!Iso. I will be open however to Vig whoever the majority wants me to and I understand majority wants Iso out (And i understand why, there is a case against him and he is in the POE so i get that).

Quote from Rhand »

Quote from Iso »

Yes, please Vig me toNight and put me out of my misery.

My only qualm with the plan is that I think Rhand has a strong chance of being the 4th scum, at this point. I don't think scumCantrip would cede to frustratedIso, and would be willing to still push that lynch prior to the Vig reveal. That means that Rhand is infinitely more likely to be the 4th scum than Cantrip at this point.

So, lynch fonti, Vig me, Jail Hunt, see what happens. But in an endgame scenario where Rhand is alive, please lynch him. That said, based on role analysis, I think Hunt is a better lynch than Rhand at this point.

This feels wrong. You don't mention at all that vigging you if Fulcrum flips town would make us lose. Which in your town!view we should?

...because I literally said "I don't see a universe in which fonti can reasonably flip scum"? Or did it not fit your agenda to read that post?

I still insist that there is no case against me.

All people you ever pursued flipped town or neutral Iso. For you, that is a huge case.
The only thing giving me pause is your willingness to get vigged. And the fact that I always think you're scum :/

The post about Fulcrum came as an afterthought. I'm pretty sure town!you would've said that in the same post where you asked to be vigged.

I'm town and you full well know it.

Kitty came into our mentor chat asking what a "Reaper" does and Brinatoo clarified that she was VT.

For the record, I'm not willing to be Vigged because I'm town - I'm willing to be Vigged because I haven't been enjoying myself.

Don't any of you dare go using my unwillingness to be Vigged in future games as an indicator that I'm scum or I will see you lynched for it.

Quote from Iso »

I'm town and you full well know it.

Kitty came into our mentor chat asking what a "Reaper" does and Brinatoo clarified that she was VT.

I kinda believe this. Well so Iso is probably town, which also makes me doubt Rhand a bit.
Shadow is town unless next level stuff.
Cantrip is town, mafia who knows I'm town wouldn't be so suspicious of me when the plan is me vigging someone and proving them wrong, they wouldn't want to put themselves in a position to look bad.
Fulcrum posts doesn't seem to come from mafia but I also don't see posts that makes me go "She has to be town" either.
Huntzilla is still lurking and that makes me super suspicious.

Lets divide this to Tiers of trust:
Tier I - Shadow, Cantrip
Tier II - Rhand, Iso (yes, crazy I know)
Tier III - fulcrum and Huntzilla

I'd like to go for that third tier and lynch fulcrum and vig Huntzilla with Shadow jailing Rhand or Iso.

How long until the deadline? Soon I have time to re read stuff. I remember thinking fulcrum and Hunt are not mafia together so gonna look back at that.

When you vote also add an unofficial vote for the vig. I will go for who the majority wants. If you won't I just decide who to vig myself.

...

If we are choosing between lynching and shooting me, I should always be shot, because that allows me to get my roleblock off and potentially stop a kill tonight.

As we currently have 7 people alive, there is no world where scum!me blocking the vig shot leads to loss or even a loss of a lynch, where as meteor viging me and me blocking the kill in effect gives us an extra kill.

Also, also, we shouldn't lynch hunt, because half of us don't have access to the neighbor qt that the people that do say clears him. It makes more sense, if you're worried about hunt, to lynch Rhand, who has vouched for hunt.

But, even that doesn't make sense, when we can instead lynch Iso. IF Iso is town, which his call to be vigged strongly makes me doubt, then the team must either be Rhand/Cantrip or Rhand/Hunt. In this world, I can then be misvigged, but so long as Shadow jails one of those three, I have a decent chance of saving the game with my block.

In the event that Iso is mafia, I'll get misvigged, but I'll know Rhand is town, which makes the most likely remaining mafia exactly Cantrip, who I can then block, winning the game.

This is all assuming two mafia left, because I don't see a world where we win if there are three and Iso is town and I don't see a /world/ where there are three and Iso is mafia.

Any flaws there?

Well, there's that flaw that Rhand can be town with Hunt mafia, but since Rhand has fought off every attempt to case Hunt, and I can't know why while I'm in the game, I'll just blame him for the loss and get over it.

Also, the Rhand/Hunt/Cantrip world, but that's a stupid world, because Rhand had no reason to drive the lynch towards Iso and off me Today.

Quote from fulcrum »

Also, also, we shouldn't lynch hunt, because half of us don't have access to the neighbor qt that the people that do say clears him. It makes more sense, if you're worried about hunt, to lynch Rhand, who has vouched for hunt.

But, even that doesn't make sense, when we can instead lynch Iso. IF Iso is town, which his call to be vigged strongly makes me doubt, then the team must either be Rhand/Cantrip or Rhand/Hunt. In this world, I can then be misvigged, but so long as Shadow jails one of those three, I have a decent chance of saving the game with my block.

In the event that Iso is mafia, I'll get misvigged, but I'll know Rhand is town, which makes the most likely remaining mafia exactly Cantrip, who I can then block, winning the game.

This is all assuming two mafia left, because I don't see a world where we win if there are three and Iso is town and I don't see a /world/ where there are three and Iso is mafia.

Any flaws there?

The flaw is that we trust you in the plan not to roleblock me, which will never happen if you are mafia.
Basically, you would suggest this plan as town (who believes this is a good plan) or mafia (that wants to prevent me from using the vig shot and confirm myself, or maybe even NK me and take me and my vig shot out of the game, and cause us to mislynch Iso if you know he is town) so its WIFOM.

Whoever thinks Iso/fulcrum is the mafia team - Please read the last few posts and explain to me how they can be a team together. Unless they are EXTREMELY good at distancing themselves, I don't see it. I feel like if fulcrum turns mafia on the flip, we shouldn't vig Iso. If fulcrum flips town, then it can make sense to vig Iso but I still think he is more likely town than Hunt (although I didn't see the chat that clears him). I'm gonna re-read the last few pages from a confirmedtown!fulcrum mindset, and see if anything jumps out to me.

@Shadow - You are clear town IMO and you also didn't see the chat - What do you feel about Hunt and me vigging him tonight?

OK so I'm looking through fulcrum posts, trying to learn stuff from each post. I'm only looking at interactions with people still alive.

#1587 - introduction, fixing Iso view of her as scum, catching up
town!fulcrum world: Null
scum!fulcrum world: Unlikely teammates with Iso, would avoid being linked to Iso already on the first post, makes Iso likely to be town.

#1614 - reading Iso as town
town!fulcrum world: Usually first read is the strongest, need to figure out later what made her turn on Iso, might be sign he is mafia.
scum!fulcrum world: She is getting pressure from Iso, trying to buddy him so he won't go after her as much. makes Iso likely to be town.

#1631 - asking Iso about Cantrip/ZOMG partnership
town!fulcrum world: Null
scum!fulcrum world: interacting alot with Iso, don't see mafia buddies interacting so much so that makes Iso likely to be town.

#1658 - calls Hunt out for writing "silent ones in the shadows".
town!fulcrum world: Null
scum!fulcrum world: makes Hunt likely to be town

#1676 - reference #1658 again
town!fulcrum world: Null
scum!fulcrum world: Hunt is town, I don't see mafia repeating an earlier post just to bus a mafia teammate.

#1677 - Town read on Shadow
town!fulcrum world: In a world that both fulcrum and Shadow can both blocks actions at night, town!fulcrum still thinking Shadow is town means he is town.
scum!fulcrum world: If fulcrum is a mafia roleblocker and post the Shadow townread despite they both blocking actions at night, it means the read is true and Shadow is town.

#1693 - Again, mentions Hunt as mafia again.
town!fulcrum world: Makes Hunt likely to be mafia based on POE
scum!fulcrum world: Once again: Hunt is town, I don't see mafia keep repeating how a mafia teammate is mafia just to distance.

#1743 - Finally some interaction with Rhand
town!fulcrum world: Null
scum!fulcrum world: I get vibes that this interaction is between two mafia buddies - "This is even assuming you are town, because I was mostly townreading you off the ghosting interactions and those are now completely pointless". Something about the the way its written pings me.

#1747 - Why she didn't target Hunt to proves herself
town!fulcrum world: Explains in the post why Hunt was her biggest mafia suspect and she didn't block him to stop the NK.
scum!fulcrum world: This is why I didn't think those two are mafia together! No way fulcrum doesn't know how her mafia buddy ability works. If fulcrum is mafia, Hunt is town.

#1752 - Replies to Shadow's scenarios.
town!fulcrum world: Null
scum!fulcrum world: I don't see the need for this post unless Rhand is a possibly mafia buddy? Wow I'm starting to get worried about Rhand.

#1761 - Interacting with Hunt
town!fulcrum world: pointing to Hunt lynching me doesn't make sense if she is town, makes Hunt likely mafia
scum!fulcrum world: Null.

Need to go so will continue this later, but what I learned that if fulcrum is town we should probably vig between Iso and Huntzilla. Personally I think Iso is more likely to be town based on his recent reactions. If fulcrum is mafia I learned that I don't want to vig both Iso or Hunt, and that out of those left I would probably vote for myself to vig Rhand? Oh god, Rhand was in my top three reads starting the day, I really need to re read him.

So this is where I'm at now:
fulcrum flips town - Vig Hunt
fulcrum flips mafia - Vig Rhand :/

Where is everyone? Deadline is geting closer... we need to come up with a plan...
Here is a link to countdown to the deadline, please check I'm not wrong.

Meteor, there's no benefit to me blocking you as mafia. With seven alive, a block on your kill only helps the mafia team /if/ the nk is also blocked, which will not happen if shadow's jail is being directed.

But, /if/ I'm town, there is a really good chance of me blocking the nk should you let me live to tonight which will. Give. Us. Another. Lynch.

You're also completely ignoring the fact that hunt being mafia in a town!Rand world is really unlikelt, which makes me think you're going to lose the game by shooting him tonight.

@Meteor: are there no interactions with Cantrip at all?

@fulcrum - I think It can help. Lets say we are with 2 mafia left and at 5-2.
If you roleblock and mafia kills Shadow its turns to 3-2 with me not being able to confirm myself and Shadow's protection gone.
Then you get lynched and its 2-1, town has to get it right in the final three situation.

While if you are mafia my plan gets to 5-1, and I can either vig someone to end the game (even if I misfire, its 3-1 which is better than the first scenario), or I choose not to vig like Cantrip suggests and its 4-1 with me not being town!confirmed, where town can still mislynch and win.

This is why I think it would be in your best interest as mafia to suggest this plan. Am I missing something?

@Rhand - I had to stop towards the end, but I didn't see anything except fulcrum referencing one of Cantrip posts to Iso asking if it looks like he is mafia buddy to ZOMG. You think it points to Cantrip being her mafia buddy and them avoiding interaction?
Question for you - What do you think about fulcrum suggestion that we should lynch you before we lynch Hunt? (@fulcrum - I'll add my thoughts, after Rhand reply first).

Updated status where I am right now on the vig:
fulcrum flips town - Vig Hunt
fulcrum flips mafia - No vig

I'd love for people to start posting their status as well.

@Meteor: I'm convinced Hunt is town. I don't care who Fulcrum wants lynched: I think Fulcrum is scum.

I was reading back on Cantrip and can't believe I missed this:

Quote from Cantripmancer »

Ok, 10 8.5 hours until deadline. Let's hammer this out.

I don't quite know what to think with all these PR claims. Between Shadow and Scarbo, behaviorally, I think Shadow's been the more active scumhunter, but I don't think we should lynch Scarbo. Between Shadow and Ghosting, I'm much more confident that Ghosting is town. I felt that way before Claim Madness 2017 occurred, and it just makes sense that I would be the NK target rather than DV. That said, I think that if Shadow were scum, DV would be dead, especially if DV claimed his role to Shadow. Looking at Anak, I don't like the idea of lynching a claimed info role, especially since we haven't had any other info roles revealed, but I can see where Rhand's coming from with regards to the setup issue. I still see a lot of elegance in the scum!Neighborizer role, and Hunt's behavior has been extremely sketchy. Again, I felt that way before all the reveals. So I think we should lynch Hunt.

Quote from D_V »

Hunt Scarbo Anak are probabally the scum team then.

I want Scarbo jailed.

I'll deal with the only other outlier which is Anak.

Unvote

Basically vote Hunt but not till we talk some more.

Quote from D_V »

And ghosting should Doc Shadow.

I am against directing power roles unless a near-foolproof set of actions is identified/lack of adhering to those actions strongly indicates scum. I especially don't think we should direct Ghosting. We need to leave the scum guessing on that.

Quote from Rhand »

We are lynching Anak or Ghosting toDay. I'm sure one of them is scum. If we lynch Ghosting and he flips town, then I'm positive that Anak is scum (town + watcher doesn't go. Trust me on this). That also means Shadow is the blocker scum because doc + jailer is over the top protection. And if we have one more scum, then look hard at Iso. He's really trying to go the other direction with the lynches.

If Ghosting is the scum from the Anak / Ghosting pairing, then Scarbo should be the blocker scum and the jailer our protection. Third scum in that case is probably Huntzilla.

While I see the logic in this, is there ANY way you're wrong? If we DO have doc + watcher, it would be pretty sad to chain lynch them. On the flip side, if Ghosting comes up town, then we could lynch Shadow first and give Anak more chances to prove himself.

Quote from Anaklusmos »

Ghosting you were told you stopped the NK? Cantrip, were you given any indication that anything had happened to you?

At this time I am still fine with lynching Ghosting, faking Doc is easy unless Cantrip can confirm what he is saying

No, I wasn't given any indication that I was saved or protected. But it's common that the target not be informed, right?

EWP: And Anak's at L-1. I'd go for Anak over Ghosting, but I still think that Hunt is the best option. And if we're trying to resolve dichotomies, I'd rather lynch Shadow to resolve the jailer/doctor situation, as I see the redundancy between the doc/roleblocker/jailer situation to be more concerning than the doc/watcher situation.

I will hammer Anak to prevent no lynch if it comes down to the wire, but I'd rather lynch Hunt.

Vote Hunt

I want to say that I'll have time to reread Hunt with all claims/new info in mind before deadline, but work is insane right now, and I don't feel optimistic.

He wanted shadow lynched inbetween Ghosting and Anak.

I'm gonna make a 180 on Iso here and say the team is probably Cantrip + Fulcrum.

@Rhand - Who is the mafia team if fulcrum flips town? (And don't say it's not possible, anything is possible).

Also, If I'm reading it correctly Cantrip wanted Shadow lynched before Ghosting (because of the jailer/doctor dichotomy), right? Why does it makes you think he is mafia? I'm probably missing something, but not sure what.

That would've resulted in the worst possible chain lynch for town. There is no world where Shadow is scum.

If Fulcrum flips town, I would guess Cantrip / Iso.

Thanks. Considering Cantrip says "Between Shadow and Ghosting, I'm much more confident that Ghosting is town" at the start of his post, and one is a Doctor (at that point we don't know Ghosting fake claimed as town, and I don't think anyone saw it coming) and the other is a Jailor, and they both seem to be town (Ghosting confirmed, Shadow not confirmed but very likely), why is it scummy for Cantrip to suggest we lynch Shadow to solve that Doc/Jailor dichotomy? Yes it would have been an horrible mislynch chain, but how is it more likely to come from scum!Cantrip than from town!Cantrip? It's not like he could possibly know Ghosting fake claimed there. I still don't really understand your case. Can you please elaborate more?

@fulcrum I'm still thinking about the Hunt/Rhand situation. It's just in this thread Rhand has been so much more active in scumhunting, and I'm afraid the world of town!Rhand and scum!Huntzilla is not that unlikely as you think. Rhand seems very confident that Hunt is town, which does make me feel better about Hunt. Hmmm.

Votecount 4.2
Iso(1): Rhand
fulcrum(2): Mete0rShower, Iso

Deadline is fast approaching February, 12th 2200 EST. (34 hours)

Thanks.
You think Cantrip is both a possibility to be mafia with fulcrum, and also a possibility to be mafia with Hunt?
Can't you please explain how? I don't see either of those. If you want the best overlap it would have to be Rhand, no? (for me the only mafia team Rhand atually makse sense to be in are exactly with Hunt or fulcrum).
That way if Rhand is the only mafia left with fulcrum dead it stops the NK, and if he is mafia with Hunt and Hunt successfuly recruits someone into the chat then it stops the NK because he has to make the kill (unless Hunt can do both).

@Meteor: This:

Quote from Mete0rShower »

@fulcrum - I think It can help. Lets say we are with 2 mafia left and at 5-2.
If you roleblock and mafia kills Shadow its turns to 3-2 with me not being able to confirm myself and Shadow's protection gone.
Then you get lynched and its 2-1, town has to get it right in the final three situation.

While if you are mafia my plan gets to 5-1, and I can either vig someone to end the game (even if I misfire, its 3-1 which is better than the first scenario), or I choose not to vig like Cantrip suggests and its 4-1 with me not being town!confirmed, where town can still mislynch and win.

...doesn't seem to track with this:

Quote from Mete0rShower »

Updated status where I am right now on the vig:
fulcrum flips town - Vig Hunt
fulcrum flips mafia - No vig

The first post shows that if fulcrum flips mafia, we're in better shape, so I would think you would see a vig as GOOD there, but if he flips town, a vig would be more dangerous. But then you say if he flips town, you should vig, and if he flips mafia, you shouldn't? I think if fulcrum flips town, you SHOULDN'T vig, and if he flips mafia, you SHOULD.

Quote from Rhand »

I was reading back on Cantrip and can't believe I missed this:

*snip*

He wanted shadow lynched inbetween Ghosting and Anak.

I'm gonna make a 180 on Iso here and say the team is probably Cantrip + Fulcrum.

First off, the lack of N1 NK has thrown me all game, as evidenced by my first post of toDay, which you already pointed out in the neighbor chat, so your "discovery" tone rings false. Second, iirc (don't have time to go back and confirm), that was at a point that Ghosting had falseclaimed that he protected me, so I was absolutely in the mindset that he prevented the N1 NK (me), and Shadow wasn't nearly as confirmed at that point. Third, this would be TWO 180's, given that you've also thought me town most of the game.

Quote from Rhand »

That would've resulted in the worst possible chain lynch for town. There is no world where Shadow is scum.

I don't care how likely it is that Shadow is town; this statement sounds like you know, and there's only one way you could know.

I am extremely suspicious of this sudden shift with only a day left before deadline. It's exactly what scum would do to throw things into confusion.

With that in mind, I feel like we were already on the right track with at least one of Iso or Fulcrum being scum, so here's where I stand:

I'm ok with lynching Fulcrum or Iso toDay, with a slight lean toward Fulcrum because of mechanics. If whichever one we lynch flips town, Meteor should NOT use his vig shot. If the flip is scum, Meteor should use his own discretion in vigging.

I don't know how much opportunity I will have to post between now and the deadline, but I will try to check in frequently.

@Rhand: If you have any questions for me rather than cherry picking a poor example out of context, please ask.

At this point I'm ready to vote Fulcrum, but he's at L-2, and I don't want any chance of cutting off additional conversation. I *will* be sure to make it back in before deadline to vote if necessary.

EWP: And 1850 makes me feel better about Meteor again, as it would have been easy for him to jump on my wagon there.

And EWP @Shadow: I disagree. If Fulcrum is scum, then Meteor vigging doesn't result in the end of the game and also helps confirms him, so Fulcrum flipping scum would be a good time for him to vig.

@Shadow and Iso: Who's scum if Fulcrum flips scum? Who's scum if Fulcrum flips town?

@Cantrip - the reason I wanted to vig before if fulcrum flips town is because I was confident in Yours/Shadow/Rhand townblock, and figured it doesn't matter who I vig between Iso and Hunt, they will be mafia. Now I'm starting to worry this townblock is not as strong as I thought, and I completely agree I shouldn't vig if fulcrum flips town.

In case fulcrum flips mafia, the problem is Shadow might jail Rhand who I would probably want to vig since I don't think any of the other people make sense with fulcrum as mafia partner, so it will just be N1 all over again. I don't want to vig someone who is not my #1 suspect just to confirm myself as town, specially as it's gonna cost town the possibility the town to mislynch tomorrow. Although there is a chance Shadow might jail correctly the other mafia and then I could vig without costing the mislynch town. Ugh my head is starting to hurt and I'm rambling, I wonder if someone gets what I'm saying here? If you do, you deserve a candy.

Anyway, please continue to check in frequently and talk some sense into me so I won't make stupid mistakes that cost us the game. Thanks!

Okay, Cantrip's response feels genuine.
Which means it HAS to be Iso + Fulcrum.
Unless Hunt has done an awesome job in Neighbour chat or Meteor is falseclaiming.
We have to lynch Fulcrum to get that roleblock out of the way so we can prove Meteor.
and Meteor and Shadow have to make sure they don't overlap targets.

I'll switch my vote to Fulcrum as soon as we are ready to end the Day.

Quote from Mete0rShower »

@fulcrum - I think It can help. Lets say we are with 2 mafia left and at 5-2.
If you roleblock and mafia kills Shadow its turns to 3-2 with me not being able to confirm myself and Shadow's protection gone.
Then you get lynched and its 2-1, town has to get it right in the final three situation.

While if you are mafia my plan gets to 5-1, and I can either vig someone to end the game (even if I misfire, its 3-1 which is better than the first scenario), or I choose not to vig like Cantrip suggests and its 4-1 with me not being town!confirmed, where town can still mislynch and win.

This is why I think it would be in your best interest as mafia to suggest this plan. Am I missing something?

@Rhand - I had to stop towards the end, but I didn't see anything except fulcrum referencing one of Cantrip posts to Iso asking if it looks like he is mafia buddy to ZOMG. You think it points to Cantrip being her mafia buddy and them avoiding interaction?
Question for you - What do you think about fulcrum suggestion that we should lynch you before we lynch Hunt? (@fulcrum - I'll add my thoughts, after Rhand reply first).

It seems like your only worry in the scum!me world is that you won't be confirmed town, but everyone already thinks you're basically confirmed regardless of whether your shot goes off, so why does it matter?

Listen, meteor, I think the team is either Iso/Cantrip or Rhand/Hunt, and I am leaning towards the former. If you insist on doing this, I am begging you not to shoot Hunt.

@fulcrum That's not the only thing thay I care about, as said in my post you quoted? Even if it was, it doesn't feel like everyone is townreading me, and I'm sure if I don't vig and it ever gets to that point mafia are gonna have this case how I'm some mastermind who has been manipulating the whole game with faking vig and stuff. So yeah, me being confirmedTown is important to me and town.

I just said I completely agree that I shouldn't vig anyone if you are town, so what's your agenda on that last post?

@Shadow I didn't even notice that by you jailing someone suspicious it townclears him if fulcrum is mafia and the NK happens. Sweet.

Vote Fulcrum

I don't see any of us neighbors being scum.

Meteor, if you must shoot me, I understand, but it won't get you what you're looking for.

Iso is probably the other scum.

Let's move on to the hard part!

@Mete0r: fonti has to be the lynch so that we circumvent any situations where she is scum and Roleblocks you.

When she flips scum, I should be reasonably clear by that point, but I'll eat a Vig for the team if I need to.

IF she flips town, I accept that I got duped by Hunt, Rhand, and Cantrip.

I think that Rhand and then Hunt should be your Vig priorities in that order with a scumfonti flip. And if I somehow die overNight, do not let Huntzilla go without lynch on Day 5 after we see fonti/Iso/Rhand dead.

Unless Cantrip is scum, this plan wins us the game.

If Cantrip is scum, I accept that he outplayed us, or at least knew how to spin me towards his favor, which appears to have been good enough for this purpose. If Mete0r is scum, your Vig gambit was good and it was definitely the game-winning play, here. I could see a Mete0r/Rhand team based on that, alone. If shadow is scum, I don't know what the **** happened on Night 1 and I'll be mad about it for sure because it means a townie lied about something.

So yeah, if any of those three are scum, we lose - but I'm willing to let the game ride on the chance that they're not.

@Rhand - I am 99.9% shooting you tonight if fulcrum turns mafia, based on the fulcrum interaction analysis I did earlier and based on your behavior today which was sketchy with the Cantrip attack.
I'm gonna reread you at night before I make my shot and see if anything super townie jumps out and changes my thoughts - that's the 0.1%.
If fulcrum is town I'm not shooting anyone.

If I mess up and I am shooting a townie I apologize, but I'm letting you know ahead so in the case you are actually town you can put your last thoughts on this thread, and they can be useful for town to win down the road. Also, I would like for you to officially claim since I don't think you ever did.

@Cantrip - Same for you, claim please.
Iso and Cantrip if you are playing me I will be really annoyed, but also kinda impressed? Lol good luck to all of us.

I'm not okay with you not confirming your ability in the off chance that fonti flips town; we really, really need that confirmation.

No time for anything, really, but caught up reading and saw the request to claim.

I'm Torbjorn, VT.

Quote from Mete0rShower »

@fulcrum That's not the only thing thay I care about, as said in my post you quoted? Even if it was, it doesn't feel like everyone is townreading me, and I'm sure if I don't vig and it ever gets to that point mafia are gonna have this case how I'm some mastermind who has been manipulating the whole game with faking vig and stuff. So yeah, me being confirmedTown is important to me and town.

I just said I completely agree that I shouldn't vig anyone if you are town, so what's your agenda on that last post?

@Shadow I didn't even notice that by you jailing someone suspicious it townclears him if fulcrum is mafia and the NK happens. Sweet.

No, that's pretty much your only point. The others are irrelevant numbers wise because there are 7 alive.

Here, have a last will and testament. Meteor is always town. You should never lynch him and I will never vote for him. Tada.

@Iso - If fulcrum flips town and I shoot a town member and there is a NK (which there will be, since there will be two mafia left) we lose. So what do you want me to do?

@Shadow - I'd prefer to vig Rhand but I'm ok with you jailing Rhand. Just let me know if you did or not later.

@fulcrum - I know there are 7 people alive, I said we are at 5-2, so please explain what you mean. Why is your last "will" is only about me? Is Shadow not obvious town in your opinion? Also, who should I vig when you flip town? (Unless you gonna admit to flipping mafia)

@Hunt - Why are you suddently nice to me?

@Cantrip - Thanks, I need your thoughts buddy when you find the time.

Vig cantrip, if you insist on doing it. I would prefer you not shoot, and see how everyone shifts their reads with my flip. And yes, shadow is obviously clear enough that I'd be content to lose to mafia!him.

With 7 alive, mislynching and the nightkill brings us to 3-2. Thus town gets one more lynch to figure things out. If you shoo, a mis vig brings us to 2-2, thus losing the game in the same way a mislynch would. Shooting a scum gives an extra lynch in the same way lynching scum would. The only difference is in your level of confirmation, but you should already be clear.

The difference comes if the mafia kill fails. In that case, your vig shot would bring us to 3-2, giving us an extra town sided kill at no cost. But, since shadow's shot is directed and I know killing me will not hit a mafia, I know that this cannot happen by lynching me. On the other, if I am not lynched now and am instead vigged, I would have a decent ***** of blocking the kill, thus putting us in that 3-2 even with a mislynch today and mis vig on me.

In the world where I am mafia, this would likely lead to a mislynch today and a blocked vig shot one me. I would then be lynched at 3-2, and you would have a shot at finding my partner in final three. This is not a terrible world for town.

If you believe I am the most likely mafia alive, then lynch me. But my role should be a reason to let me live until the night, not a reason to kill me now and prevent my nk block.

Hey fulcrum I decided to do a little test.
I asked you specifically if Shadow is town, then asked what to do if you flip town.
It was strange to me how you didn't want me to vig Hunt before.
I figured this is where you would finally go after Hunt but you won't. Did you really think I won't notice that all three of you are town PR in your world, which doesn't make sense specially together with me being the 2-shot vig?
Test failed.

God help and forgive me.
I want to build something that'll outlive me.

...

If you stand for nothing, Burr, what will you fall for?

My brain hurts.

End of day reads in case I'm killed:

• Shadow is town for the lack of kill N1.
• I've had Rhand as town all game (other than a few qualms from toDay, but everyone's getting paranoid); if he's scum, he's doing a really good job.
• I've also had Meteor as town all game (again, with the exception of paranoia toDay). I'm really hoping that Fulcrum flips scum and he can confirm his ability.
• Hunt is unlikely to be scum based on the neighbor chat content, especially the thought dump pre-neighbors.
• Iso is still near the bottom of the list, but Iso's responses are making me second guess that.
• Fulcrum's posts have felt a little robotic, especially 1871 where he suggests my vig, then proceeds to parrot me on the gamestate. :/ I also don't like that he never indicated if Brin had confirmed the roleblock-blocking-neighbor-chat question (or if he even asked him).

I still feel like Fulcrum should be the lynch. At which point, we should keep the following in mind:

• If Fulcrum flips scum, Meteor should absolutely vig. I don't care who he targets, but it'll narrow the PoE for toMorrow and prove his ability.
• If Fulcrum flips town, Meteor should absolutely NOT vig. As much as I want to say yolo and let him do what he feels is right, I feel like it's too risky.
• We have a slight benefit in that we can confirm Shadow's target if he fires into the Neighborhood (Hunt, Rhand, me), which eliminates his target from performing the NK if there is one (because that player would be mod-confirmed from posting in the chat).
• As a subset of that, if Fulcrum flips scum and Meteor vigs, we need Meteor to claim his target before ANYONE else indicates who was jailed (I realize this could be moot if Meteor gets neighborized). Otherwise, it could be difficult to sort out the vig shot (or pretend vig shot) and the NK, especially if one gets prevented.

I will be back in about two hours, at which point I will hammer Fulcrum if no one else has.

@shadow: I'd really like it if you Jailed Hunt toNight and Mete0r Vigged Rhand regardless of what fonti flips.

Quote from Iso »

@shadow: I'd really like it if you Jailed Hunt toNight and Mete0r Vigged Rhand regardless of what fonti flips.

"I'm not falling behind or running late.
I'm not standing still,
I am lying in wait." - Iso

"I know fonti's going to flip town." - also Iso

Cantrip, dear, if your thoughts on the game mirrored mine, you would be arguing against my lynch as mechanically moronic.