Okay, I think Rhand's plan is our best bet for success, and if iso flips scum and fulcrum blocks hunt, it shouldn't matter if I jail meteor and he's town, cause all our bases should be covered.
I read through Rhand and I would be incredibly surprised if he's actually scum, I can confirm that he speculated (in jail chat) that Iso would change from wanting to lynch Fulcrum to someone else, so I'm pretty sure that Iso is scum here (which would mean that Rhand is not even a possible partner with him because of actions).
I'm gonna go ahead and Vote Iso. I'll be jailing Meteor tonight.
First off, Meteor, I saw that you indicated that this will likely be your last game (at least for a while) due to life changes, which I wanted to express sorrow at, as you've been enjoyable to play with. Come back if life permits.
Thoughts:
1. The first two votes to hammer were town, bodes well for Rhand
This seems like a very disingenuous statement to make. Explain your thinking.
Quote from Meteor »
2. Only Rhand, Cantrip and Shadow are alive from the first vote wagon, can they all be town?
Basically you're pointing out that other than Zomg voting himself, there's a lot of blue on that wagon, so could it have been an all-town wagon? Is it possible that no one was bussing? Well, the D1 wagon would be the most likely for that situation, I would think, and we have four players with unknown alignments NOT on the wagon, so yes, I'd say it's possible, especially knowing my alignment, the strong likelihood of Shadow being the town protective role, and the town vibes I've felt from Rhand all game. But I find it interesting that you questioned that for the D1 lynch, but didn't bring it up for D2, where it's even less likely that Anak's wagon was all town, but you didn't feel the need to point that out. You also didn't point out that Rhand was on all three wagons.
All of a sudden I'm paranoid that the remaining scum team is Meteor + Rhand. I need to check out their interactions to see if that's even a possibility. If not, maybe just Meteor and he's trying to implicate Rhand by omission.
Quote from Meteor »
3. Huntzilla was pretty quick to be on the town wagons, but wasn't at all on the mafia one.
@Rhand - Does looking back at Hunt diary at day 1 knowing he didn't vote zomg weird to you?
Not to Garcia Rhand, but Hunt only mentioned 8 players prior to Anak joining in, and Zomg's mention was just in passing along the lines of "yay, we found scum".
@Fulcrum: Shadow chooses his target during the Day. Hunt at Night.
If you don't get lynched toDay, you better prove your ability toNight.
Grr. You specifically pointed this out, but then when you proposed your plan shortly thereafter, you didn't make the connection that Shadow would have to choose his target before we knew the Iso flip?
@Iso: does Ghosting's flip change any of your reads?
Strangely, at this point, I feel rather inclined to lynch Hunt. Mostly because I haven't wanted to lynch him all game and I think that's usually indicative of a scumHunt, if I recall correctly.
As has been pointed out, you *did* want to lynch him, and that's a really strange reason to abandon your primary suspect from yesterDay. I feel like yesterDay you went "logic, logic, logic, I have the game solved, lynch Fulcrum" and toDay you're saying "nah, gut-read: lynch Hunt".
Quote from Iso »
Are Hunt and shadow's actions confirmed from last Night?
Hunt, say I flip town. Who would you want to lynch?
Meteor.
I'm tired of his incessant tunneling on me, and I believe it's scum motivated trying to push my mislynch.
Let's go a little bit further, then. In the world where I'm town and meteor is scum, he would see the scum team as having the next two mislynches in the bag yesterDay. Why would he back off Ghosting at the very end?
What about the world where you're scum and Meteor is scum? Not even sure if that's a world that makes sense, but that would be a reason for Meteor to back off Ghosting (+ not being "on a town wagon").
More to come when I have more time. Work sort of exploded even more.
I can change targets up to the point of the flip, my whole point is that we can't guarantee that Iso won't twilight troll, especially if it could actually affect the outcome of the game. So by the time we know for sure, my choice will already be locked in.
@Fulcrum: Regarding Rhand's plan, can you ask Brin whether your roleblock would prevent a player from posting in Hunt's neighbor chat? Will you specifically ask about whether it would prevent Hunt from posting there?
@Mete0r: PoE suggests I'm town. I don't understand how your Nightkill analysis indicates that I would be scum. I pushed Ghosting because he was scummy as **** and counterclaimed the Town Watcher and then retracted his claim after the Town Watcher flipped, immediately resulting in him getting lynched with prejudice. Ghosting single-handedly threw the game for the town and I'm pretty pissed about that. If you don't get my logic, have you considered thinking about my posts instead of just reading them? And what reasoning am I tricking people with, exactly? I don't think we're playing the same game and that concerns me.
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@Rhand: How is shadow confirmed town? Please explain. Also, why are you trying to lynch me for reconsidering the game state after my strongest scumread flipped town? Like, what the ****? Also, there are almost definitely 3 scum left because I'm about 98% certain D_V needed arcwind dead to win.
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@shadow: Spoilers, I'm town. Hope that makes it easier for you.
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And you guys think I'm scum because I'm analyzing the game in light of being proven wrong about Ghosting and because you don't understand what I'm saying about Huntzilla.
I'm pretty done with this game. If you want to lynch me, get it over with, but I'm just done with the absolute garbage play and lack of critical thinking, and Ghosting's bull***** seriously put me on tilt. You guys have had a lynchboner for me all game because my predecessor didn't post, I provided solid analysis off of the arcwind flip, and now I'm getting discounted because I'm actually thinking about the gamestate after new information has come to light.
I like you guys but god damn are you infuriating.
Not once did I say I didn't want to lynch fulcrum. Not a single time. I simply said I'm more inclined to lynch Huntzilla at this stage.
But I understand reading comprehension is hard. After all, basically nobody has followed along with anything I've said all game.
Anyway, whatever. Talk to me, or throw the game. Your choice.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
First off, Meteor, I saw that you indicated that this will likely be your last game (at least for a while) due to life changes, which I wanted to express sorrow at, as you've been enjoyable to play with. Come back if life permits.
Thanks! I enjoyed playing here alot, all three games I played were fun.
Who knows, maybe I will.
Thoughts:
1. The first two votes to hammer were town, bodes well for Rhand
This seems like a very disingenuous statement to make. Explain your thinking.
Ok so I was looking for patterns, trying to see if we know an aligment of certain votes placements and I saw both cases the person who hammered was town. Obviously its based only on two votes so its not like Rhand is locktown now, but I figured there is a higher chance of him being town than mafia based on it.
2. Only Rhand, Cantrip and Shadow are alive from the first vote wagon, can they all be town?
Basically you're pointing out that other than Zomg voting himself, there's a lot of blue on that wagon, so could it have been an all-town wagon? Is it possible that no one was bussing? Well, the D1 wagon would be the most likely for that situation, I would think, and we have four players with unknown alignments NOT on the wagon, so yes, I'd say it's possible, especially knowing my alignment, the strong likelihood of Shadow being the town protective role, and the town vibes I've felt from Rhand all game. But I find it interesting that you questioned that for the D1 lynch, but didn't bring it up for D2, where it's even less likely that Anak's wagon was all town, but you didn't feel the need to point that out. You also didn't point out that Rhand was on all three wagons.
All of a sudden I'm paranoid that the remaining scum team is Meteor + Rhand. I need to check out their interactions to see if that's even a possibility. If not, maybe just Meteor and he's trying to implicate Rhand by omission.
Yes those questions were exactly what I was asking, thanks for the response.
I focused on Day 1 because town lynched mafia there, Day 2 I didn't focus much on because both wagons were on town, so I figured there is not much to be learned there. I still think that way, but maybe I'm missing something?
You are welcome to look at Rhand/myself interactions but I'm not mafia and I'm almost sure Rhand isn't either, but since your time is limited and I value your analysis alot personally I'd rather hear your thoughts about fulcrum, Iso and Huntzilla because I feel there is at least one mafia there and I have no idea who, maybe you can see something that I missed.
3. Huntzilla was pretty quick to be on the town wagons, but wasn't at all on the mafia one.
@Rhand - Does looking back at Hunt diary at day 1 knowing he didn't vote zomg weird to you?
Not to Garcia Rhand, but Hunt only mentioned 8 players prior to Anak joining in, and Zomg's mention was just in passing along the lines of "yay, we found scum".
Thats not what Rhand said on #1739.
@Iso - Thanks for replying, I actually think that post reads town for that reaction. From my POV you are mafia based on POE because I don't think its Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow and 99.9% chance there is at least one mafia in one of you four, and then another mafia between fulcrum and Huntzilla.
Regarding NK - the Vaimes NK would make most sense coming from you because he was really after you, and Vaimes is a strong player whose reads are usually good. I can see scum!Iso getting rid of him before he sways more people to lynch you.
Do you agree with this or you think the Vaimes NK make sense more from someone else? If so, who?
If you are really town and there are 3 mafia left we need you with us right now or we are 2 (I think?) votes away from losing the game.
I read games where you solved the game within 50 posts, we have much more here so if you can do that again that would be great.
You guys have had a lynchboner for me all game because my predecessor didn't post, I provided solid analysis off of the arcwind flip, and now I'm getting discounted because I'm actually thinking about the gamestate after new information has come to light.
>_>
Will address things in a bit, but hello?
The only reasons I've been given for the scumreads on my slot are scarbo's lack of activity.
@Iso and fulcrum - I never got read as mafia because Atog lack of posting before me (and he had 3 posts) so..
@Iso - Regarding tricking town, you want us to lynch Huntzilla for the reason that you "didn't want to lynch him all game" when in fact you did want to lynch him. That's tricking town to lynch someone in my eyes. If I am missing something I would be happy to hear it. Please explain to me how having a case on someone that is untrue should make me feel good about you.
The funny thing, is that I do think there are signs pointing to Huntzilla being mafia, but you dont seem to want to lynch Hunt because of them. So yeah, it feels like we are playing different games to me too.
@Fulcrum: Regarding Rhand's plan, can you ask Brin whether your roleblock would prevent a player from posting in Hunt's neighbor chat? Will you specifically ask about whether it would prevent Hunt from posting there?
@Mete0r: PoE suggests I'm town. I don't understand how your Nightkill analysis indicates that I would be scum. I pushed Ghosting because he was scummy as **** and counterclaimed the Town Watcher and then retracted his claim after the Town Watcher flipped, immediately resulting in him getting lynched with prejudice. Ghosting single-handedly threw the game for the town and I'm pretty pissed about that. If you don't get my logic, have you considered thinking about my posts instead of just reading them? And what reasoning am I tricking people with, exactly? I don't think we're playing the same game and that concerns me.
I don't see any issues with the way you pushed Ghosting; pretty much everyone was doing the same thing. Not sure that I agree that PoE suggests you're town, though. PoE mildly points to one of Fulcrum/Shadow/Hunt being scum, with Shadow being less likely than the other two due to the lack of kill N1. Possibly makes Hunt less likely because he performed an action last Night and may not have been able to perform the NK, but he's presumably got at least one scumbuddy to handle that. Other than that...where do you see PoE telling us anything?
Quote from Iso »
@Rhand: How is shadow confirmed town? Please explain. Also, why are you trying to lynch me for reconsidering the game state after my strongest scumread flipped town? Like, what the ****? Also, there are almost definitely 3 scum left because I'm about 98% certain D_V needed arcwind dead to win.
Rhand's speculation on the setup, number of mislynches, etc, sounds more likely to me. If we're in lylo, we obviously need to make this count, but I'm really hoping we're not in lylo.
Quote from Iso »
And you guys think I'm scum because I'm analyzing the game in light of being proven wrong about Ghosting and because you don't understand what I'm saying about Huntzilla.
That's because you literally ONLY said:
Quote from Iso »
Strangely, at this point, I feel rather inclined to lynch Hunt. Mostly because I haven't wanted to lynch him all game and I think that's usually indicative of a scumHunt, if I recall correctly.
Are Hunt and shadow's actions confirmed from last Night?
Since you don't mention Fulcrum at all in that post, yes, it feels like you're abandoning all the focus and drive you had yesterday so that you can go after Hunt "because you haven't wanted to lynch him all game". It sounds like you're saying "I want to lynch Hunt because he's been too town!!!" If you wanted us to understand what you're saying about Hunt, you'd be explaining, not angsting. But that's not what you're doing; you're deflecting onto an emotional "wahhh, why does everyone want to lynch me this game???" You'll notice no one was trying to lynch you yesterDay when you were on the warpath against Ghosting; you were making posts, using words, and explaining why you were doing what you were doing. I could understand if you wanted to reevaluate the gamestate after Ghosting flipped town, but I don't see any reevaluation, just a nearly-naked and counterintuitive "lynch Hunt because he's too town".
And on top of that, you ask if Hunt and Shadow's actions are confirmed. I confirmed that I got neighborized by Hunt in 1741, and Fulcrum indicated in the very first post of the Day, 1735, that he targeted YOU. So not only have you proven that you're still not reading the game, but also that you don't really care about the answers to your questions.
@Iso: I don't care how tilted you are; explain to me how your post comes from a town mindset, especially one that thinks we're in lylo. And don't say that it's because we all have lynchboners for you, because you made that post before anyone was attacking you toDay.
Ok so I was looking for patterns, trying to see if we know an aligment of certain votes placements and I saw both cases the person who hammered was town. Obviously its based only on two votes so its not like Rhand is locktown now, but I figured there is a higher chance of him being town than mafia based on it.
Well...ok, so looking for patterns is good, but hammer votes can come from town or scum. With those two wagons, they came from town, but I don't see how that establishes a pattern that you would find reliable for the rest of the game to the point that you would highlight it.
Quote from Meteor »
I focused on Day 1 because town lynched mafia there, Day 2 I didn't focus much on because both wagons were on town, so I figured there is not much to be learned there. I still think that way, but maybe I'm missing something?
By asking "can [the three people on Zomg's wagon whose alignments we don't know] all be town", it felt like you were implying that one or more of us are scum. And that was on a D1 wagon on scum, which, statistically, has the best chance of being an all-town wagon of any wagon in any game. Yet you didn't extend that logic to the D2 or D3 wagons, which have a smaller pool of players, so are more likely to have scum on them. I felt like you were saying "hey, look at Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow; they might be scum bussing Zomg.......but don't look at Rhand+Meteor+Fulcrum on D2 or Rhand+Iso+Hunt+Fulcrum on D3."
@Rhand - Does looking back at Hunt diary at day 1 knowing he didn't vote zomg weird to you?
Not to Garcia Rhand, but Hunt only mentioned 8 players prior to Anak joining in, and Zomg's mention was just in passing along the lines of "yay, we found scum".
The only reasons I've been given for the scumreads on my slot are scarbo's lack of activity.
I'm somewhat suspicious of your slot because Scarbo claimed he didn't use his ability N1, which doesn't feel like a Town move. Even if he were mostly disconnected from the game, were I in his place I would have sent Brin a "in case I don't return in time because my life is crazy, roleblock [player x]" default. Your posts have felt much townier. I still think there's a good chance that one of you/Hunt/Shadow are scum because of roles, with Shadow being less likely because of the missing N1 kill.
And you guys think I'm scum because I'm analyzing the game in light of being proven wrong about Ghosting and because you don't understand what I'm saying about Huntzilla.
That's because you literally ONLY said:
Quote from Iso »
Strangely, at this point, I feel rather inclined to lynch Hunt. Mostly because I haven't wanted to lynch him all game and I think that's usually indicative of a scumHunt, if I recall correctly.
Are Hunt and shadow's actions confirmed from last Night?
Since you don't mention Fulcrum at all in that post, yes, it feels like you're abandoning all the focus and drive you had yesterday so that you can go after Hunt "because you haven't wanted to lynch him all game". It sounds like you're saying "I want to lynch Hunt because he's been too town!!!" If you wanted us to understand what you're saying about Hunt, you'd be explaining, not angsting. But that's not what you're doing; you're deflecting onto an emotional "wahhh, why does everyone want to lynch me this game???" You'll notice no one was trying to lynch you yesterDay when you were on the warpath against Ghosting; you were making posts, using words, and explaining why you were doing what you were doing. I could understand if you wanted to reevaluate the gamestate after Ghosting flipped town, but I don't see any reevaluation, just a nearly-naked and counterintuitive "lynch Hunt because he's too town".
And on top of that, you ask if Hunt and Shadow's actions are confirmed. I confirmed that I got neighborized by Hunt in 1741, and Fulcrum indicated in the very first post of the Day, 1735, that he targeted YOU. So not only have you proven that you're still not reading the game, but also that you don't really care about the answers to your questions.
@Iso: I don't care how tilted you are; explain to me how your post comes from a town mindset, especially one that thinks we're in lylo. And don't say that it's because we all have lynchboners for you, because you made that post before anyone was attacking you toDay.
Those are all good points. Yeah, Iso is probably mafia.
Ok so I was looking for patterns, trying to see if we know an aligment of certain votes placements and I saw both cases the person who hammered was town. Obviously its based only on two votes so its not like Rhand is locktown now, but I figured there is a higher chance of him being town than mafia based on it.
Well...ok, so looking for patterns is good, but hammer votes can come from town or scum. With those two wagons, they came from town, but I don't see how that establishes a pattern that you would find reliable for the rest of the game to the point that you would highlight it.
I didn't mean to highlight it, it was more of an observation on a pattern. It's not like if I was scumreading Rhand I seeing this would change my mind that he is town and I don't think it should change anyones read on Rhand. I get what you are saying but it was just a pattern I noticed, I agree that I could have left it out of the post and it wouldn't change anything.
I focused on Day 1 because town lynched mafia there, Day 2 I didn't focus much on because both wagons were on town, so I figured there is not much to be learned there. I still think that way, but maybe I'm missing something?
By asking "can [the three people on Zomg's wagon whose alignments we don't know] all be town", it felt like you were implying that one or more of us are scum. And that was on a D1 wagon on scum, which, statistically, has the best chance of being an all-town wagon of any wagon in any game. Yet you didn't extend that logic to the D2 or D3 wagons, which have a smaller pool of players, so are more likely to have scum on them. I felt like you were saying "hey, look at Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow; they might be scum bussing Zomg.......but don't look at Rhand+Meteor+Fulcrum on D2 or Rhand+Iso+Hunt+Fulcrum on D3."
No that's not what my point was. I am just saying the wagon on day 1 had some people who voted for mafia and some people who didn't vote (and a town!Atog/me lol) so I think we can learn from it more than Day 2 where almost everyone voted for town, or Day 3 where the only wagon was Ghosting, so again not much to be learned. I would think a mafia would join a wagon on a mafia on Day 1 to credit town credit though.
@Rhand - Does looking back at Hunt diary at day 1 knowing he didn't vote zomg weird to you?
Not to Garcia Rhand, but Hunt only mentioned 8 players prior to Anak joining in, and Zomg's mention was just in passing along the lines of "yay, we found scum".
@Iso - Thanks for replying, I actually think that post reads town for that reaction.
What about Iso's reaction makes you think he's town?
I got genuine frustration about the Ghosting gambit and annoyance for getting his read wrong. Can it be faked? Sure, it just seemed real to me. One townie post doesn't erase the case for him being mafia though.
@Mete0r: That's patently false. Atog came under suspicion early by a handful of people; Rhand and D_V were two, if I'm not mistaken. Why are you making things up?
Also, there is no case on me.
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@Cantrip: I asked about shadow, not fonti. I forgot that you said Hunt targeted you; it's not that I didn't care about the answer to my question, it's that I didn't remember and couldn't be arsed to read through the Day at that point as, again, I was posting from mobile. My post comes from a town mindset because my team (and presumably the scum, as well) have been *****ting on my posting since I entered the game and I yelled at you guys not to get complacent due to the Day 1 scum lynch but ohhh nooo all I see on Day 2 is "hurr durr let's lynch Anak instead of Ghosting even though Ghosting is OBVIOUSLY LYING" on Day 2 and Ghosting flipping VT would have at least given Anak another Night to try to do something and made the scum choose between killing someone read more as town and someone that's a valuable PR. I'm demotivated because Ghosting's boneheaded move forced us to mislynch twice and it looks like I'm now on the chopping block and I just really don't care to argue with anyone because I want to lynch fonti and Hunt. Like, it's apparent that the scum are trying to keep that trio alive so that we don't immediately lynch the obvscum off of whatever the true townie among them flips. Our greatest chance to hit scum comes from lynching one of those three. I only have pause about lynching fonti and Hunt because this is a Normal and the town seems brutally underpowered, especially considering there was a Hitman that needed to kill a townie to win the game. I just can't wrap my head around this setup, and that's why I'm so indecisive at the moment. I think the strongest indicator of shadow being a scum Jailer here is that he targeted D_V on N1, who I suspect the mafia believed was an SK. I don't even care about winning this game at this point because I want to dissociate myself with the play I've seen so far from this town. Granted, it would be nice to win, still, and I don't want to do Brinatoo a disservice by not playing the game properly. But I'm very, very conflicted on a number of things for a number of reasons and it's drastically affecting my performance, here. Also, you're flat-out lying that people didn't want to lynch me before toDay because that was absolutely NOT the sentiment about me on Day 1.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
OK I have been struggling alot morally with shutting up, and Iso last post about being confused with the setup makes me struggle even harder.
I wanted to save this info for as late as possible but I am afraid I have to claim just to stop the plan.
You don't need to waste Shadow's protection on me just to clear me when I can do it myself.
I am Soldier:76, the Town 2-Shot Vigilante.
I targeted D_V night 1
I targeted scarbo night 2
Both times my shot fired but failed because Shadow freaking jailed them, so I don't have any shots left since Day 3. Yes I am currently working on publishing a book "The worst vig to ever vig", soon at your local stores.
I breadcrumbed it in my first post when I said "ya'll love playing me", because on Overwatch wikipedia it said on Soldier 76 page he is the most played character in the game. I made something with reference to other site because I was paranoid mafia will catch my breadcrumb.
If you guys want still don't believe me and want to confirm me? Shadow, don't jail me tonight. When I die and flip you will see I am not lying. Anyway, i still hate the coordinating we are doing, but if you really want to go with Rhand plan, better choose someone else.
Iso - If you are really town I hope this helps motivate you back into the game as I imagine we know the full setup now. Part of why I'm doing this is because I feel like if you really are town I would have kicked myself in the butt tomorrow for not saying anything today. If you are mafia, then you played me good but please roll over and die lol.
P.S Read my post I was talking about myself not being accused of being mafia over Atog lack of posting, not Atog himself.
@Rhand: How is shadow confirmed town? Please explain. Also, why are you trying to lynch me for reconsidering the game state after my strongest scumread flipped town? Like, what the ****? Also, there are almost definitely 3 scum left because I'm about 98% certain D_V needed arcwind dead to win.
No one died N1. That makes shadow confirmed town since Scarbo didn't block anyone and the doc claim was fake.
Even with DV having to kill arcwind, I think we would face 3 scum?
Can you walk me through why there should be 4 scum in that case?
I'm pretty done with this game. If you want to lynch me, get it over with, but I'm just done with the absolute garbage play and lack of critical thinking, and Ghosting's bull***** seriously put me on tilt. You guys have had a lynchboner for me all game because my predecessor didn't post, I provided solid analysis off of the arcwind flip, and now I'm getting discounted because I'm actually thinking about the gamestate after new information has come to light.
I like you guys but god damn are you infuriating.
You do know that I wasn't calling you scum there, right?
Not once did I say I didn't want to lynch fulcrum. Not a single time. I simply said I'm more inclined to lynch Huntzilla at this stage.
But I understand reading comprehension is hard. After all, basically nobody has followed along with anything I've said all game.
Anyway, whatever. Talk to me, or throw the game. Your choice.
It bothers me that you didn't even mention Fulcrum anymore. And that you threw shade on Shadow.
I'm not sure what to think of meteor's claim. Iso just says town is underpowered and boom, he claims unprovable power.
Vig + NK + Hitman seems like a lot of possible deaths in one Night for a game this size.
And thinking he will die toNight is just weird.
@Meteor: do you really believe scum wants to kill you?
On the other hand, claiming power out of nowhere as scum with Iso and Fulcrum under scrutiny is completely unnecessary.
@Fulcrum: Regarding Rhand's plan, can you ask Brin whether your roleblock would prevent a player from posting in Hunt's neighbor chat? Will you specifically ask about whether it would prevent Hunt from posting there?
Did we ever hear an answer to this post? I'm positive I know the answer but just curious to see if it was followed up on.
OK I have been struggling alot morally with shutting up, and Iso last post about being confused with the setup makes me struggle even harder.
I wanted to save this info for as late as possible but I am afraid I have to claim just to stop the plan.
You don't need to waste Shadow's protection on me just to clear me when I can do it myself.
I am Soldier:76, the Town 2-Shot Vigilante.
I targeted D_V night 1
I targeted scarbo night 2
Both times my shot fired but failed because Shadow freaking jailed them, so I don't have any shots left since Day 3. Yes I am currently working on publishing a book "The worst vig to ever vig", soon at your local stores.
I breadcrumbed it in my first post when I said "ya'll love playing me", because on Overwatch wikipedia it said on Soldier 76 page he is the most played character in the game. I made something with reference to other site because I was paranoid mafia will catch my breadcrumb.
If you guys want still don't believe me and want to confirm me? Shadow, don't jail me tonight. When I die and flip you will see I am not lying. Anyway, i still hate the coordinating we are doing, but if you really want to go with Rhand plan, better choose someone else.
Iso - If you are really town I hope this helps motivate you back into the game as I imagine we know the full setup now. Part of why I'm doing this is because I feel like if you really are town I would have kicked myself in the butt tomorrow for not saying anything today. If you are mafia, then you played me good but please roll over and die lol.
P.S Read my post I was talking about myself not being accused of being mafia over Atog lack of posting, not Atog himself.
gross. This claim doesn't help us at this juncture.
Also, it seems to me you are scum reading Iso. Why do you take pity on a scumspect and try to help them when you want them dead? This looks like cognitive dissonance to me, or even mild buddying/coaching. There is no need to help out Iso and his view of the game state unless you don't really want him dead.
@Rhand - I just claimed town PR. Are you serious? Of course I'm worried about being NK. I think I'm at a lose-lose situation though: If people think I'm lying then I'm not cleared and your plan is still needed and if people believe me I am gonna get NK. I am fine with it though, I claimed knowing full well there is a good chance its gonna get me killed, and I still want people to believe me. Really all I can do is just answer any questions and doubts people have and hope people see I'm being honest.
@Hunt - You gotta stop tunelling me btw I wanted so bad to mention earlier when you kept accusing me: If I was really tunneling you, you would be long dead by now! What do I want? I want some thoughts on the game, hopwfully something besides me being mafia but I'll take anything I can get from you right now. Did you actually read my post you quoted or just the part I wrote for Iso? I wanted to stop Rhand plan where Shadow was gonna jail me. And why do you think I would fake claim to save Iso who is two votes away from being lynched? I was scumreading Iso, but his last posts seems genuine and I don't want to fail again, I would actually like to lynch mafia for the first time this game, so I want to make sure the person I'm voting for is mafia. I'm hoping this claim can also help me do that with Iso.
Well shadow can wifom between you and Cantrip then I guess.
The problem is that shadow might not wake up toMorrow, and if we don't know who he targeted, we lose a lot of info.
Ok so I was looking for patterns, trying to see if we know an aligment of certain votes placements and I saw both cases the person who hammered was town. Obviously its based only on two votes so its not like Rhand is locktown now, but I figured there is a higher chance of him being town than mafia based on it.
Well...ok, so looking for patterns is good, but hammer votes can come from town or scum. With those two wagons, they came from town, but I don't see how that establishes a pattern that you would find reliable for the rest of the game to the point that you would highlight it.
I didn't mean to highlight it, it was more of an observation on a pattern. It's not like if I was scumreading Rhand I seeing this would change my mind that he is town and I don't think it should change anyones read on Rhand. I get what you are saying but it was just a pattern I noticed, I agree that I could have left it out of the post and it wouldn't change anything.
See, that's what's bothering me. You indicate that you're going to do votecount analysis, post the votecounts, then list three bullet points, this being #1. If you weren't trying to highlight it, why put it front and center like that? If it's not indicative to you, why mention it at all? At best, you're town unfortunately obscuring whatever else you want to say; at worst, you're scum blowing smoke to obscure things on purpose.
I focused on Day 1 because town lynched mafia there, Day 2 I didn't focus much on because both wagons were on town, so I figured there is not much to be learned there. I still think that way, but maybe I'm missing something?
By asking "can [the three people on Zomg's wagon whose alignments we don't know] all be town", it felt like you were implying that one or more of us are scum. And that was on a D1 wagon on scum, which, statistically, has the best chance of being an all-town wagon of any wagon in any game. Yet you didn't extend that logic to the D2 or D3 wagons, which have a smaller pool of players, so are more likely to have scum on them. I felt like you were saying "hey, look at Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow; they might be scum bussing Zomg.......but don't look at Rhand+Meteor+Fulcrum on D2 or Rhand+Iso+Hunt+Fulcrum on D3."
No that's not what my point was. I am just saying the wagon on day 1 had some people who voted for mafia and some people who didn't vote (and a town!Atog/me lol) so I think we can learn from it more than Day 2 where almost everyone voted for town, or Day 3 where the only wagon was Ghosting, so again not much to be learned. I would think a mafia would join a wagon on a mafia on Day 1 to credit town credit though.
You tried to push this agenda earlier, iirc, with something like "do players not voting Zomg get town points?" Looked it up: #1740. Why are you trying to clear those not on Zomg's wagon (you, Iso, Hunt, Fulcrum)?
Maybe I'm off-base here: @All: Do you agree with Meteor's assertion that those not on Zomg's wagon are less likely to be scum than those on? I don't feel like it's strongly indicative either way. (Meteor, feel free to correct this question if you feel like I'm misrepresenting your assertion.)
@Mete0r: That's patently false. Atog came under suspicion early by a handful of people; Rhand and D_V were two, if I'm not mistaken. Why are you making things up?
Meteor already corrected this, but to clarify: you indicate that the main reason you're getting attacked is because Kitty didn't post, but Meteor is in the same situation and isn't getting attacked for Atog not posting because he's actually playing and trying to solve the game.
Quote from Iso »
@Cantrip: I asked about shadow, not fonti. I forgot that you said Hunt targeted you; it's not that I didn't care about the answer to my question, it's that I didn't remember and couldn't be arsed to read through the Day at that point as, again, I was posting from mobile.
First off, sorry that I thought you were asking about Fulcrum, not Shadow. Shadow claimed that he jailed Rhand, and Rhand posted after that, so I figured if that wasn't true, Rhand would have indicated that somehow. I probably thought he had confirmed in-thread because we discussed it in the Neighborhood.
Quote from Iso »
My post comes from a town mindset because my team (and presumably the scum, as well) have been *****ting on my posting since I entered the game and I yelled at you guys not to get complacent due to the Day 1 scum lynch but ohhh nooo all I see on Day 2 is "hurr durr let's lynch Anak instead of Ghosting even though Ghosting is OBVIOUSLY LYING" on Day 2 and Ghosting flipping VT would have at least given Anak another Night to try to do something and made the scum choose between killing someone read more as town and someone that's a valuable PR. I'm demotivated because Ghosting's boneheaded move forced us to mislynch twice and it looks like I'm now on the chopping block and I just really don't care to argue with anyone because I want to lynch fonti and Hunt. Like, it's apparent that the scum are trying to keep that trio alive so that we don't immediately lynch the obvscum off of whatever the true townie among them flips. Our greatest chance to hit scum comes from lynching one of those three. I only have pause about lynching fonti and Hunt because this is a Normal and the town seems brutally underpowered, especially considering there was a Hitman that needed to kill a townie to win the game. I just can't wrap my head around this setup, and that's why I'm so indecisive at the moment. I think the strongest indicator of shadow being a scum Jailer here is that he targeted D_V on N1, who I suspect the mafia believed was an SK.
I don't disagree with you that there's likely scum in those three; which of the three would you dayvig if you could? Why?
Quote from Iso »
I don't even care about winning this game at this point because I want to dissociate myself with the play I've seen so far from this town. Granted, it would be nice to win, still, and I don't want to do Brinatoo a disservice by not playing the game properly. But I'm very, very conflicted on a number of things for a number of reasons and it's drastically affecting my performance, here. Also, you're flat-out lying that people didn't want to lynch me before toDay because that was absolutely NOT the sentiment about me on Day 1.
That's not what I said. I said that people weren't gunning for you yesterDay (D3), specifically, which is when you picked your play up off the ground, dusted it off, and actually made posts that sounded like you were thinking about the game.
You don't need to waste Shadow's protection on me just to clear me when I can do it myself.
I am Soldier:76, the Town 2-Shot Vigilante.
I targeted D_V night 1
I targeted scarbo night 2
Both times my shot fired but failed because Shadow freaking jailed them, so I don't have any shots left since Day 3.
Holy smokes. So DV goes berserk D1 and attracts the NK, a Vig shot, AND the jail protect. That's...insane. I feel like it's a little unlikely. Coming on the heels of me putting a little pressure on you, I'm leery that you're fakeclaiming to try and establish town cred. Iso indicating that the game is low-power gives you the opportunity, and then you coincidentally claim the two jail targets as your planned hits. The first target could be real, as you, performing the mafia NK, targeted DV and got blocked. The second one could be fake, to throw us off the trail. Your breadcrumb is a little weak, and really only points to your flavor character, NOT to being a 2-shot vig.
@Meteor: How, exactly, does you claiming unprovable power clear you?
Quick post at work, I'm going to reread and make absolutely sure of who I want to jail tonight, but I will claim my target before night.
...don't do this. If it's part of a strong plan that helps narrow down the field, that's fine, but I don't have a lot of faith that Rhand's plan is as strong as he originally indicated. If Brin confirms to Fulcrum that a roleblock on Hunt will prevent Hunt from posting in the Neighbor chat (so that we get that mod-confirmation), then it's a little better, but otherwise, I'd rather you made the scum work to succeed in a NK.
I'm still frustrated with Iso, but he continues to sound sincere. I want to look at Meteor's entrance to the game and DV interactions.
Ok so I was looking for patterns, trying to see if we know an aligment of certain votes placements and I saw both cases the person who hammered was town. Obviously its based only on two votes so its not like Rhand is locktown now, but I figured there is a higher chance of him being town than mafia based on it.
Well...ok, so looking for patterns is good, but hammer votes can come from town or scum. With those two wagons, they came from town, but I don't see how that establishes a pattern that you would find reliable for the rest of the game to the point that you would highlight it.
I didn't mean to highlight it, it was more of an observation on a pattern. It's not like if I was scumreading Rhand I seeing this would change my mind that he is town and I don't think it should change anyones read on Rhand. I get what you are saying but it was just a pattern I noticed, I agree that I could have left it out of the post and it wouldn't change anything.
See, that's what's bothering me. You indicate that you're going to do votecount analysis, post the votecounts, then list three bullet points, this being #1. If you weren't trying to highlight it, why put it front and center like that? If it's not indicative to you, why mention it at all? At best, you're town unfortunately obscuring whatever else you want to say; at worst, you're scum blowing smoke to obscure things on purpose.
Regarding the point being the front and center - I was just typing stuff as I saw them, and that was the first thing I noticed, so I typed it first. I didn't rearrange my points based on importance, maybe I should have but I didn't think of it at the time. My approach to the voting wagon analysis was looking for patterns, because I figured thats the best way to get data, but I see now that's not the case. That's just my inexperience showing (It was the first time I ever tried doing a voting analysis and looking back I didn't do it well).
Can you please explain why would I note that as mafia though, and what does "obscure things on purpose" mean? I mean I made it pretty clear that I am townreading Rhand already, so I don't see what I would gain as mafia. So while I agree this point could have easily been left out, I'm still not sure why is making it scummy?
I focused on Day 1 because town lynched mafia there, Day 2 I didn't focus much on because both wagons were on town, so I figured there is not much to be learned there. I still think that way, but maybe I'm missing something?
By asking "can [the three people on Zomg's wagon whose alignments we don't know] all be town", it felt like you were implying that one or more of us are scum. And that was on a D1 wagon on scum, which, statistically, has the best chance of being an all-town wagon of any wagon in any game. Yet you didn't extend that logic to the D2 or D3 wagons, which have a smaller pool of players, so are more likely to have scum on them. I felt like you were saying "hey, look at Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow; they might be scum bussing Zomg.......but don't look at Rhand+Meteor+Fulcrum on D2 or Rhand+Iso+Hunt+Fulcrum on D3."
No that's not what my point was. I am just saying the wagon on day 1 had some people who voted for mafia and some people who didn't vote (and a town!Atog/me lol) so I think we can learn from it more than Day 2 where almost everyone voted for town, or Day 3 where the only wagon was Ghosting, so again not much to be learned. I would think a mafia would join a wagon on a mafia on Day 1 to credit town credit though.
You tried to push this agenda earlier, iirc, with something like "do players not voting Zomg get town points?" Looked it up: #1740. Why are you trying to clear those not on Zomg's wagon (you, Iso, Hunt, Fulcrum)?
Maybe I'm off-base here: @All: Do you agree with Meteor's assertion that those not on Zomg's wagon are less likely to be scum than those on? I don't feel like it's strongly indicative either way. (Meteor, feel free to correct this question if you feel like I'm misrepresenting your assertion.)
You don't misrepresent my assertion, and it was exactly what I was asking earlier. Maybe you will have better luck in getting replies. I did want to know what other people think because it looked weird to me a mafia wouldn't use the chance to bus a fellow mafia member to get town credit, but you three are my top 3 town reads so I was getting worried I was being played by one of you. I actually hoped that other players would say its a non issue too and then I could just let it go and keep reading you guys as town in peace.
You don't need to waste Shadow's protection on me just to clear me when I can do it myself.
I am Soldier:76, the Town 2-Shot Vigilante.
I targeted D_V night 1
I targeted scarbo night 2
Both times my shot fired but failed because Shadow freaking jailed them, so I don't have any shots left since Day 3.
Holy smokes. So DV goes berserk D1 and attracts the NK, a Vig shot, AND the jail protect. That's...insane. I feel like it's a little unlikely. Coming on the heels of me putting a little pressure on you, I'm leery that you're fakeclaiming to try and establish town cred. Iso indicating that the game is low-power gives you the opportunity, and then you coincidentally claim the two jail targets as your planned hits. The first target could be real, as you, performing the mafia NK, targeted DV and got blocked. The second one could be fake, to throw us off the trail. Your breadcrumb is a little weak, and really only points to your flavor character, NOT to being a 2-shot vig.
@Meteor: How, exactly, does you claiming unprovable power clear you?
I agree that sounds unlikely but I really dig shoot D_V at the first night. I went through all the game when I replaced in and I was debating between D_V and Huntzilla. The reason I decided to shoot D_V is the CC by Rodemy who I thought was obviously town, and the fact that D_V admitted to lying before which I didn't think came from a town mindset. Another funny thing is that I saw D_V is a town PR which made me worry that there is a small chance I was gonna take down a town PR but I figured hey if he is really a town PR then maybe the mafia will shoot him too and then it won't matter. Little did I know they really would shoot him but apperantly for completely different reasons?
The breadcrumb also points to me being a vig because if you look at the wikipedia page (I would put the link but I'm on mobile so its hard right now, can do later on computer) it says on the right on the occupation Vigilante. I did think about adding a different breadcrumb just for the vig part but I decided it was too risky to get caught and this breadcrumb is enough.
I felt it clear me, because while I didn't actually succeed in killing anyone, I felt like by revealing all this info with addition to my play it wouldn't make any sense that I am faking all this stuff as mafia so people would believe me pretty easily. Apperantly I was wrong. Regarding Iso comments it was the straw the broke the camel back for me. I was debating with myself all day if to reveal myself or not and when I read and believed how much Iso is discouraged by the setup, I just felt I had to say something before we potentially lose another town player and I could have done something about it. I feel like if I were mafia I would play it completely different and it doesn't make sense for me to claim this right now in some weird attempt to save Iso, I would probably just stay the course and try keep looking as town as possible without making waves, probably adding the third vote on Iso if he was my mafia buddy to gain town credit (just like my point before on the ZOMG wagon). Also, don't you think its weird a mafia that shot D_V at night 1 would claim a vig that shot him? It's like setting yourself up to look questionable, wouldn't mafia want to avoid that?
Quick post at work, I'm going to reread and make absolutely sure of who I want to jail tonight, but I will claim my target before night.
...don't do this. If it's part of a strong plan that helps narrow down the field, that's fine, but I don't have a lot of faith that Rhand's plan is as strong as he originally indicated. If Brin confirms to Fulcrum that a roleblock on Hunt will prevent Hunt from posting in the Neighbor chat (so that we get that mod-confirmation), then it's a little better, but otherwise, I'd rather you made the scum work to succeed in a NK.
I'm still frustrated with Iso, but he continues to sound sincere. I want to look at Meteor's entrance to the game and DV interactions.
Agreed, I would rather also Shadow won't reveal, I hate this coordinating in the thread where mafia sees everything. If there is any loophole in the plan I'm sure they will figure it out at night and use it, and I don't believe this plan doesn't have a loophole.
This time I'm not gonna ask you to look at someone else because I feel like if you really think I am lying about the claim then I should be sorted out and re-read, if you can put all the notes and questions for me here I can explain my mindset and hopefully you can see I am really the town 2-shot vig.
Okay, couple of things Meteor: Why DV and Scarbo? Also, during day 2, why did you not say anything after DV implied that he was a vig?
___________________________________
I'm not sure that not claiming my target ahead of time is the correct choice here, I'll think on it, I'm trying to figure out the best line of play. I think trying to protect is probably not worth it here either, but I'm going to run through some scenarios in my head.
Also, wouldn't hunt being role blocked just prevent him from adding another player to his neighborhood? I think that means hunt has to target someone who is sure not to die, fulcrum being the best choice.
I believe Mete0r's claim. I don't see any reason for him to come forward and falseclaim as scum as it draws unnecessary scrutiny his way. I don't like that he can't prove it, but them's the breaks. Thank you for stepping forward with that info.
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@Rhand: I guess that makes sense; I actually didn't consider that shadow would be confirmed town for that, for some reason. I think I was still hedging on the fonti slot still being scum, but that wouldn't make any sense as why would scarbo block his buddy and also claim no block on N1? That means that fonti and Hunt are basically confirmed scum at this point and I'm fine with lynching either toDay.
Thank you for talking some sense into me about shadow; Night 1 was a hodgepodge of confusion for me since I was still sorting things out.
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@Cantrip: I'd Vig fonti for the reasons outlined above and to take a Roleblocker out of the equation.
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@shadow: Please don't claim your target for toNight until Day 5.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@Shadow - I explained why D_V in the post above yours, not much more to say about that. Regarding scarbo I reread the thread at night aftwe the Anak fail and a couple of scummy things jumped out to me about scarbo:
1. He was asking if D_V was still neutral or did he claim town.
2. He claimed not to roleblock anyone.
About D_V I remember saying he will off someone towards the lynch which made me pause and go "wait that's my role" but I figured it was another one of his gambits. It didn't even cross my mind to CC there...
@Rhand/Shadow/Cantrip - I just came up with a plan which I'm pretty sure is foolproof for town win but first I need to know if you three are sure enough you all are town and you trust me. Do you trust each other enough to be town and me to go through with the plan?
@Rhand/Shadow - It would require not lynching Iso today, would you be ok with that? Yes I am aware it looks like I'm protecting Iso but you will see in my plan thats not the case at all.
The most annoying this is that I could have thought of this plan before day started and save us all of Today's mess but I was so dead set on holding to the 2-shot vig info that just now I realized that we can win the game assuming Rhand/Shadow/Cantrip are town.
Oh what the heck I'm just gonna say it and hope you guys believe me and will go with the plan - I actually have my second shot, I never used it on Night 2 and Night 3, I didn't actually shoot scarbo it was just my cover to not let mafia know I have a second shot. I was debating whether to use it tonight and clear myself, depends on my reads strength and how confident I am at guessing Shadow's jailing so N1 won't happen all over again.
My plan is lynch fulcrum today so I won't get roleblocked, I vig Iso at night and Shadow jails Hunt.
We should be able to both prevent the NK and also my vig will go through and confirm me town tomorrow.
If somehow the NK goes through - If they kill me it has to be one of the three guys on the townblock, or it was Iso and he has another partner if the game isn't over.
If they kill someone else we use my townconfirm status to join whoever left of the 3 guys townlock and lynched whoever is left based on POE.
If the NK doesn't go through, lynch Hunt tomorrow and that should win us the game.
Putting aside for a moment believing me or not, this we can prove if Iso dies tonight or not - Anyone see any holes in my plan?
Adding my vote, as from my point its the best way to win, but I will consider Unvoting if someone explains the flaw in the plan.
I'm not against the plan as I think Iso + Fulcrum is the scumteam anyways.
If there's a third, it's either you (but with what you said now you should clear yourself toNight), Cantrip or maaaaaaybe Hunt.
I think it's actually smarter to jail Cantrip instead of Hunt because Hunt has a self-proving Night action. Although I guess that's wifom as I've seen quite some games where the last scum can use their normal action and kill the same Night.
@Shadow: feel free to not announce who you jail. Just don't jail Iso or meteor lol.
(there's no way Fulcrum is town and Meteor having an extra NK shot as scum, right?)
Oh what the heck I'm just gonna say it and hope you guys believe me and will go with the plan - I actually have my second shot, I never used it on Night 2 and Night 3, I didn't actually shoot scarbo it was just my cover to not let mafia know I have a second shot. I was debating whether to use it tonight and clear myself, depends on my reads strength and how confident I am at guessing Shadow's jailing so N1 won't happen all over again.
...this actually makes me feel better about you, despite the lie. And it seems unlikely to be another lie to allay the suspicion you're getting, as you'll have to successfully vig to clear yourself. However, why didn't you vig N2?
Quote from Meteor »
My plan is lynch fulcrum today so I won't get roleblocked, I vig Iso at night and Shadow jails Hunt.
We should be able to both prevent the NK and also my vig will go through and confirm me town tomorrow.
If somehow the NK goes through - If they kill me it has to be one of the three guys on the townblock, or it was Iso and he has another partner if the game isn't over.
If they kill someone else we use my townconfirm status to join whoever left of the 3 guys townlock and lynched whoever is left based on POE.
If the NK doesn't go through, lynch Hunt tomorrow and that should win us the game.
First off, if we're at 4 town and 3 scum, a mislynch loses the game even if Meteor hits scum unless Shadow prevents the kill (-1 town, -1 scum vigged, -1 town nk = 2-2, scum win). This also means that if we're at 4-3, Iso's town unless both Rhand and Shadow are scum (otherwise they would have hammered him and won).
However, I think it's much more likely that we're at 5/2, so with that gamestate in mind, let's take a look at applying this plan to a few scenarios:
• Iso/Fulcrum: Game is solved.
• If only one of Iso/Fulcrum are scum: One town gets lynched/vigged, one scum gets lynched/vigged, Shadow likely gets NK'd (or possibly Meteor), and we're left with Hunt, Rhand, one of Meteor/Shadow, and me, with 3 town and 1 scum, so we're in lylo. The Meteor/Shadow slot is town, so we have to correctly choose between Hunt, Rhand, and myself.
• If neither Iso or Fulcrum are scum: Unless Shadow prevents a kill, we lose 3 town and start toMorrow at 2-2, scum win.
Alternatively, how about:
1. We lynch Fulcrum to remove the roleblock from the picture. (5-1 if Fulcrum's scum, 4-2 if not)
2. Shadow jails Meteor for protection, but we lose another town. (4-1 if Fulcrum's scum, 3-2 if not)
3. toMorrow, if Fulcrum was scum, we still get two more lynches to find the last scum (Meteor does NOT use his vig shot that Night, as a misfire would eliminate that extra lynch). If Fulcrum was not scum, we're still in lylo, but we have near-confirmed town in Shadow and Meteor, so we have 2/3 chances of hitting scum among Hunt, Rhand, and me (hint: it's Hunt and Rhand at that point. ;))
I feel like Meteor's plan is AWESOME if both Iso or Fulcrum are scum, and strong if only one of them is, but if neither of them are, we lose. My plan isn't as flashy, but has no chance of us losing toNight.
This is, of course, dependent on Meteor being town. He could be scum painting his NK as a vig shot (in which case, Iso's town). So we should probably do some digging. I started looking at his D2 posts, and I'm not sure I see "frustrated vig who lost his shot on DV N1", but then again, I don't see "frustrated scum who lost his NK on DV N1" either. If anyone has any free time to analyze Meteor's posts D2/D3 and see how likely it is that he had a vig shot and didn't use it N2, that would be awesome. I can work toward that, as well, but I'm about out of time for a while, and I need to check in on my other game, too.
We also need to remember that deadline is in about 3 days, 11 hours. Still plenty of time, but let's not get lazy.
Eh, actually, if Meteor's never going to use his second vig shot, we still don't have to direct Shadow's jail toNight, and we can continue to keep the scum guessing. Maybe we prevent toNight's kill and are in even better shape.
Okay, so unless the scumteam is between Rhand/Cantrip/hunt, I think this plan works in our favor. I think it's pretty likely that we'd lose to a team in those three anyway, so I guess I'm not really opposed?
[b]Unvote[b]
How much time do we have before the deadline? I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
Preview edit: okay, cantrip vomitted all of my thoughts into the thread.
Meant to add that I realize that if Meteor doesn't vig, it doesn't help to confirm him as town, but just him proposing this plan makes me think that he's more than likely town. Of course, that one possible outcome of his plan is that the scum win toNight doesn't help me get closer to discerning his alignment....hmmmmmmm.
Again, a close scrutiny of his posts--preferably from more than one person to prevent a scumbuddy from being the only one vouching for him--is probably in order before we move forward on either plan.
@Shadow: I'm confused. Are you suggesting we go with Meteor's plan or my plan?
@Cantrip: I was speaking in regards to Meteor's plan. I want to run through the possible outcomes before we decide on anything though. I do think that if Meteor is town here, having him confirm that seems better than not, I think?
I didn't use my shot because I thought Anak is mafia and when he flipped town I lost all confidence in my reads, and took a calculated risk I'm not gonna be the mafia target and saved my shot. Last night I didn't shoot because I thought there are 3 mafia left and if I kill town we lose.
I think your plan is better Cantrip if you all believe I'm town but I doubt you all are. And yeah like I said my plan only works if you three are town, if fulcrum/Iso are town then it means one of you three are mafia and then my plan doesn't work.
I will barely have time to post in the next 36 hours, I will try to at least provide short answers. Bad timing I know but I promise to answer anything in details after.
And @Rhand no I am not mafia and I never heard of such thing as mafia having a double kill at night, if that's a serious question. I trust Cantrip way more than Hunt, but I never saw your chat.
@Cantrip you are not gonna find any mentions of vig or anything that can possibly make you think I'm one. I stayed away far from that as I could like a Justin Bieber song. I didn't want to give mafia the tiniest doubt I might be PR because I wanted to make sure I stay alive and that vig shot stays with me. I am pretty sure no one will find anything, but I welcome in general any reread on me as I played my usual town game, I didn't act any differently because I am a vig.
1. We lynch Fulcrum to remove the roleblock from the picture. (5-1 if Fulcrum's scum, 4-2 if not)
2. Shadow jails Meteor for protection, but we lose another town. (4-1 if Fulcrum's scum, 3-2 if not)
3. toMorrow, if Fulcrum was scum, we still get two more lynches to find the last scum (Meteor does NOT use his vig shot that Night, as a misfire would eliminate that extra lynch). If Fulcrum was not scum, we're still in lylo, but we have near-confirmed town in Shadow and Meteor, so we have 2/3 chances of hitting scum among Hunt, Rhand, and me (hint: it's Hunt and Rhand at that point. ;))
Derp. Iso's still in the mix here, so we'd be at 4-1 or 3-2 with five of these six, depending on who gets NK'd: Hunt, Rhand, Iso, Shadow, Meteor, and me. Probably unlikely that Iso gets NK'd if he's town, given the suspicion against him.
I didn't use my shot because I thought Anak is mafia and when he flipped town I lost all confidence in my reads, and took a calculated risk I'm not gonna be the mafia target and saved my shot. Last night I didn't shoot because I thought there are 3 mafia left and if I kill town we lose.
Why did you think we had 3 mafia left at that point?
Quote from Meteor »
And @Rhand no I am not mafia and I never heard of such thing as mafia having a double kill at night, if that's a serious question.
I've played games where the mafia have a 1-shot extra kill, sometimes during the Day, sometimes at Night. They almost always use it N1 or N2 to try to remove PRs early, but there was one--can't remember which--where it was saved until the last Night to end the game one Night sooner than it should have been. That said, it seems like general site sentiment right now is that extra mafia kills are a little OP, so I'd be surprised to find one in a normal.
Still doesn't exclude the possibility of you "vigging" suspicious town when you're really just performing the NK, but...
@Cantrip you are not gonna find any mentions of vig or anything that can possibly make you think I'm one. I stayed away far from that as I could like a Justin Bieber song. I didn't want to give mafia the tiniest doubt I might be PR because I wanted to make sure I stay alive and that vig shot stays with me. I am pretty sure no one will find anything, but I welcome in general any reread on me as I played my usual town game, I didn't act any differently because I am a vig.
You may not have breadcrumbed vig specifically, but your responses to game events can still be telling.
Ok, I have a little time, so I'm taking a look at your posts.
710: (Your first post.) You mention that you're aware of DV trying a lying gambit in Cops and mention that there are others in this game that were in that game.
I haven't actually read that game, so fill me in: he was scum there, I'm guessing, and was his gambit successful?
You also mildly question DV and end with "My thoughts is D_V looks more suspect between the two because he lied, but first I'd like to understand why he claimed Tracer after us getting ZOMG, and then claiming non VT. I don't get that, regardless of alignment." It feels a little odd that there's no hint of frustration from a failed vig shot there, but maybe you're just really good at masking it. I feel like hiding that frustration would be more likely to come from scum, as you'd be being careful not to acknowledge that you know anything about a failed kill, but I could also see that coming from a vig with another shot. (Outcome: Null)
718 is your "catchup post": In response to DV's indication that he was jailed but wasn't the kill target, you say:
Quote from Meteor »
I don't follow.. You are saying you did it so the mafia didn't waste a kill on you, but then say they did stop the kill on you?
So your plan to avoid getting killed actually almost got you killed?
...this feels a little off coming from a vig. This would feel like a natural time for a vig to innocently say "Did you even consider the fact that you might be vigged for acting so crazily?" But you don't. And I would think that knowing that you tried to vig him AND that there was no NK would increase the likelihood in your mind of a doctor/roleblocker possibility, so I need to look for your perspective on that later on. You also paint DV as likely to be mafia based on Zomg's assertions. Not sure if that's indicative or not. (Overall: slightly -town)
@Mete0rShower A jailer is someone who puts a person in "Jail". When in jail they can talk to that person. And ultimately decided if they want to kill who is in jail that night. My jailer also revealed his identity to me. But I'm keeping that one close to the chest.
Do you get confirmation from the mod that the person is town?
So we have a player that get killed players, and he was gonna kill you last night then backed off after you had a convo? What did you tell him that make him change his mind?
Again, if you're a vig, you should be hella suspicious of this supposed killing jailer, as that would make him your role + huge bonus. I don't see that here, but maybe you go into that later. (-town)
764 you indicate that DV was likely lying (either about the jailer, or about the jailer having a kill), so that could explain why you're not suspicious of the jailer. (+town)
783 you continue to question DV on the jailer's motivation. (+town)
814 you respond to my suggestion that the lack of N1 kill was because "DV would have been the one to perform it and he got jailed" by saying "I agree its the most likely, but lets try to think of other possibilities.
What do you think those other possibilities might be, even if they are less likely?" Does this come from town vig? A town vig knows that a kill against DV was prevented, but also suspects that it's not the NK that was prevented...oy, I can't decide if this is in line with your claim or not. The end of that post you do speculate on the possibility of a jailer + doctor combo (+likelihood you're vig), but then ask if it's wrong to want DV to stay in the game for entertainment value (which I don't see as likely to come from vig). (Overall: null)
828 you reverse and seem to think it unlikely that there's both jailer and doctor.
850 you shift your attention away from DV and onto Hunt. If you felt strongly enough about DV to vig him N1, what convinced you to move away from his lynch on D2? (-town)
853: First off, what did you mean when you said "Someone is hungry"?
Second, you list three possibilities: DV is town because of how he speculated on the lack of NK, or DV's lying about the jailer, or the mafia can kill while jailed. You conclude that you think it's the first one, which means that you believed at that point that a jailer existed. Shadow hadn't confessed at that point that he didn't actually have a kill (hadn't even claimed), so--again--you should have been very suspicious of this "other vig-type role". But I don't see that. (-town)
954: You indicate suspicion of Rhand, and ask him how jailer claiming helps town. Yet another opportunity to express suspicion that there's another vig role out there, but you seem to be against the jailer claiming. (-town)
967: This is an aside, but I find it hilarious that you were suspicious of Rod being a neutral that needed DV dead, when it looks like the exact opposite was the case.
1045: You cast doubt on the existence of the jailer role again. (+town)
1104: If you're not town vig, there is some massive irony in you questioning Ghosting on what happened N1 when he's talking about the unlikelihood of a doctor role in the game. That would be like, fake-claim-ception.
1121: You seem to be open to the idea of a doctor (+town vig-oscity), and also support the RB'er claiming (also +town vig-oscity, as it helps explain the lack of NK when your perspective is that DV was unlikely to be NK'd).
1164: You briefly explain why you're not focused on DV anymore, which would help explain why you didn't just try to vig DV again N2. Still not sure why you didn't vig N2. Vig shots get riskier and riskier as Days go by; even with newly-shaken reads, I'd have been more likely to vig than not. But you're not me, and it's not a clear-cut optimal play, so I certainly can't project that definitively onto you. (Overall: +town)
1256: This feels somewhat indicative to me. You seem to demonstrate that you're aware that players should re-evaluate when other roles come to light, but you still haven't expressed any suspicion of the jailer. (-town)
1298: You again speculate on the possibility of a doctor. (+town)
1474: You finally are starting to search for the jailer. (+town)
1501: Shadow has claimed jailer, but unfortunately clarified that he didn't really have a kill before you posted. Nuts. I was hoping to find a smoking gun (or lack thereof, when you didn't pounce on him).
Ok, so I'm still uncertain here. On the one hand, if I'm town vig, ANY whiff of another vig role raises my hackles, and I don't see that from you at all. Not when you hear about Jailer-With-a-Kill, not when DV mike-drops at the end of D2. The DV thing is understandable given how many gambits he ran, but the jailer part is concerning.
On the other hand, you're sorta all over the place on your jailer stance, so it's harder to get a read on what you really thought. Possible that this is because you're scum uncertain if it's safe to falseclaim (or just scum, not really considering falseclaiming at that point), but it's also possible that you're town vig, uncertain on what can be trusted and/or just not reacting the way I would.
Unfortunately, this is the second time I've taken a closer look at Meteor's posts and felt a little sucker-punched, so I'm less inclined to trust him. I encourage others to continue looking at posts after 1500 (and/or reviewing the ones I've already looked at), but I am DEFINITELY out of time, now, so for now I'm going to leave it at "I don't trust Meteor enough to follow his plan, especially when there's a chance that plan wins the game for scum." If Iso and Fulcrum are scum, we should suss them out via the normal lynch process. Yes, that means a longer game and more work for all involved, but I think it's worth it.
Yes, please Vig me toNight and put me out of my misery.
My only qualm with the plan is that I think Rhand has a strong chance of being the 4th scum, at this point. I don't think scumCantrip would cede to frustratedIso, and would be willing to still push that lynch prior to the Vig reveal. That means that Rhand is infinitely more likely to be the 4th scum than Cantrip at this point.
So, lynch fonti, Vig me, Jail Hunt, see what happens. But in an endgame scenario where Rhand is alive, please lynch him. That said, based on role analysis, I think Hunt is a better lynch than Rhand at this point.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I can't realistically see a world where fonti flips town unless shadow is scum who gambited with his team to have D_V framed as the NKer once they determined he was non-town. Just musing out loud at this point, but I'm pretty sure shadow's in the clear. Let's do this.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Pretty sure meteor and shadow are clear then. I find it hard to imagine a scenario where scum would choose to self kill even if it were allowed, hunt.
It's possible that shadow is scum and targetted a town n1 who his team then shot in order to get a clear down the line, but that sounds unnecessarily convoluted and unlikely.
That leaves Hunt, Iso, Rhand and Cantrip.
Rhand and Iso aren't together. I'm going to assume Hunt can only be mafia if Rhand is also mafia, because I can't see the logs that have convinced Rhand.
Since I can adjust my block after Iso flip, I can use it to decide whether to block between Cantrip and Rhand or Hunt and Rhand. Since I'm dying anyway to the vig shot (?) proving my ability is pointless and less important than stopping the night kill. Obviously, I would like to know who Shadow plans to block so I can react accordingly.
Will finish catching and responding to things tomorrow. Sorry, it's been a bit of a time.
Yes, please Vig me toNight and put me out of my misery.
My only qualm with the plan is that I think Rhand has a strong chance of being the 4th scum, at this point. I don't think scumCantrip would cede to frustratedIso, and would be willing to still push that lynch prior to the Vig reveal. That means that Rhand is infinitely more likely to be the 4th scum than Cantrip at this point.
So, lynch fonti, Vig me, Jail Hunt, see what happens. But in an endgame scenario where Rhand is alive, please lynch him. That said, based on role analysis, I think Hunt is a better lynch than Rhand at this point.
For what it's worth, I think the repeated use of the word "at this point" is scummy, which pushes me towards the Cantrip/Iso world.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
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I read through Rhand and I would be incredibly surprised if he's actually scum, I can confirm that he speculated (in jail chat) that Iso would change from wanting to lynch Fulcrum to someone else, so I'm pretty sure that Iso is scum here (which would mean that Rhand is not even a possible partner with him because of actions).
I'm gonna go ahead and Vote Iso. I'll be jailing Meteor tonight.
I'm going to hijack this and colorize it for the fun of things:
First vote
Rodemy(1): Atogaholic/Mete0rShower
zomgarcwind(8): Rodemy, Rhand, D_V, Cantripmancer, shadowlancerx, Vaimes, zomgarcwind, Anaklusmos
Abstaining (5): kitty/Iso, Ghosting, Huntzilla, Ophidia, scarbo/fulcrum
Second vote
Ghosting(5): Anaklusmos, Iso, Huntzilla, shadowlancerx, D_V
Anaklusmos(7): Rhand, Ophidia, Mete0rShower, scarbo/fulcrum, Ghosting, Vaimes, Rodemy
Huntzilla(1): Cantripmancer
Third vote
Ghosting(5): Iso, Huntzilla, Ophidia, fulcrum, Rhand
Huntzilla(1): Ghosting
Abstaining (3): Mete0rShower, shadowlancerx, Cantripmacer
This seems like a very disingenuous statement to make. Explain your thinking.
Basically you're pointing out that other than Zomg voting himself, there's a lot of blue on that wagon, so could it have been an all-town wagon? Is it possible that no one was bussing? Well, the D1 wagon would be the most likely for that situation, I would think, and we have four players with unknown alignments NOT on the wagon, so yes, I'd say it's possible, especially knowing my alignment, the strong likelihood of Shadow being the town protective role, and the town vibes I've felt from Rhand all game. But I find it interesting that you questioned that for the D1 lynch, but didn't bring it up for D2, where it's even less likely that Anak's wagon was all town, but you didn't feel the need to point that out. You also didn't point out that Rhand was on all three wagons.
All of a sudden I'm paranoid that the remaining scum team is Meteor + Rhand. I need to check out their interactions to see if that's even a possibility. If not, maybe just Meteor and he's trying to implicate Rhand by omission.
Not to Garcia Rhand, but Hunt only mentioned 8 players prior to Anak joining in, and Zomg's mention was just in passing along the lines of "yay, we found scum".
Grr. You specifically pointed this out, but then when you proposed your plan shortly thereafter, you didn't make the connection that Shadow would have to choose his target before we knew the Iso flip?
As has been pointed out, you *did* want to lynch him, and that's a really strange reason to abandon your primary suspect from yesterDay. I feel like yesterDay you went "logic, logic, logic, I have the game solved, lynch Fulcrum" and toDay you're saying "nah, gut-read: lynch Hunt".
You're still not reading the game, are you?
What about the world where you're scum and Meteor is scum? Not even sure if that's a world that makes sense, but that would be a reason for Meteor to back off Ghosting (+ not being "on a town wagon").
More to come when I have more time. Work sort of exploded even more.
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@Rhand: How is shadow confirmed town? Please explain. Also, why are you trying to lynch me for reconsidering the game state after my strongest scumread flipped town? Like, what the ****? Also, there are almost definitely 3 scum left because I'm about 98% certain D_V needed arcwind dead to win.
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@shadow: Spoilers, I'm town. Hope that makes it easier for you.
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And you guys think I'm scum because I'm analyzing the game in light of being proven wrong about Ghosting and because you don't understand what I'm saying about Huntzilla.
I'm pretty done with this game. If you want to lynch me, get it over with, but I'm just done with the absolute garbage play and lack of critical thinking, and Ghosting's bull***** seriously put me on tilt. You guys have had a lynchboner for me all game because my predecessor didn't post, I provided solid analysis off of the arcwind flip, and now I'm getting discounted because I'm actually thinking about the gamestate after new information has come to light.
I like you guys but god damn are you infuriating.
Not once did I say I didn't want to lynch fulcrum. Not a single time. I simply said I'm more inclined to lynch Huntzilla at this stage.
But I understand reading comprehension is hard. After all, basically nobody has followed along with anything I've said all game.
Anyway, whatever. Talk to me, or throw the game. Your choice.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Thanks! I enjoyed playing here alot, all three games I played were fun.
Who knows, maybe I will.
Ok so I was looking for patterns, trying to see if we know an aligment of certain votes placements and I saw both cases the person who hammered was town. Obviously its based only on two votes so its not like Rhand is locktown now, but I figured there is a higher chance of him being town than mafia based on it.
Yes those questions were exactly what I was asking, thanks for the response.
I focused on Day 1 because town lynched mafia there, Day 2 I didn't focus much on because both wagons were on town, so I figured there is not much to be learned there. I still think that way, but maybe I'm missing something?
You are welcome to look at Rhand/myself interactions but I'm not mafia and I'm almost sure Rhand isn't either, but since your time is limited and I value your analysis alot personally I'd rather hear your thoughts about fulcrum, Iso and Huntzilla because I feel there is at least one mafia there and I have no idea who, maybe you can see something that I missed.
Thats not what Rhand said on #1739.
@Iso - Thanks for replying, I actually think that post reads town for that reaction. From my POV you are mafia based on POE because I don't think its Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow and 99.9% chance there is at least one mafia in one of you four, and then another mafia between fulcrum and Huntzilla.
Regarding NK - the Vaimes NK would make most sense coming from you because he was really after you, and Vaimes is a strong player whose reads are usually good. I can see scum!Iso getting rid of him before he sways more people to lynch you.
Do you agree with this or you think the Vaimes NK make sense more from someone else? If so, who?
If you are really town and there are 3 mafia left we need you with us right now or we are 2 (I think?) votes away from losing the game.
I read games where you solved the game within 50 posts, we have much more here so if you can do that again that would be great.
>_>
Will address things in a bit, but hello?
The only reasons I've been given for the scumreads on my slot are scarbo's lack of activity.
@Iso - Regarding tricking town, you want us to lynch Huntzilla for the reason that you "didn't want to lynch him all game" when in fact you did want to lynch him. That's tricking town to lynch someone in my eyes. If I am missing something I would be happy to hear it. Please explain to me how having a case on someone that is untrue should make me feel good about you.
The funny thing, is that I do think there are signs pointing to Huntzilla being mafia, but you dont seem to want to lynch Hunt because of them. So yeah, it feels like we are playing different games to me too.
I don't see any issues with the way you pushed Ghosting; pretty much everyone was doing the same thing. Not sure that I agree that PoE suggests you're town, though. PoE mildly points to one of Fulcrum/Shadow/Hunt being scum, with Shadow being less likely than the other two due to the lack of kill N1. Possibly makes Hunt less likely because he performed an action last Night and may not have been able to perform the NK, but he's presumably got at least one scumbuddy to handle that. Other than that...where do you see PoE telling us anything?
Rhand's speculation on the setup, number of mislynches, etc, sounds more likely to me. If we're in lylo, we obviously need to make this count, but I'm really hoping we're not in lylo.
That's because you literally ONLY said:
Since you don't mention Fulcrum at all in that post, yes, it feels like you're abandoning all the focus and drive you had yesterday so that you can go after Hunt "because you haven't wanted to lynch him all game". It sounds like you're saying "I want to lynch Hunt because he's been too town!!!" If you wanted us to understand what you're saying about Hunt, you'd be explaining, not angsting. But that's not what you're doing; you're deflecting onto an emotional "wahhh, why does everyone want to lynch me this game???" You'll notice no one was trying to lynch you yesterDay when you were on the warpath against Ghosting; you were making posts, using words, and explaining why you were doing what you were doing. I could understand if you wanted to reevaluate the gamestate after Ghosting flipped town, but I don't see any reevaluation, just a nearly-naked and counterintuitive "lynch Hunt because he's too town".
And on top of that, you ask if Hunt and Shadow's actions are confirmed. I confirmed that I got neighborized by Hunt in 1741, and Fulcrum indicated in the very first post of the Day, 1735, that he targeted YOU. So not only have you proven that you're still not reading the game, but also that you don't really care about the answers to your questions.
@Iso: I don't care how tilted you are; explain to me how your post comes from a town mindset, especially one that thinks we're in lylo. And don't say that it's because we all have lynchboners for you, because you made that post before anyone was attacking you toDay.
Well...ok, so looking for patterns is good, but hammer votes can come from town or scum. With those two wagons, they came from town, but I don't see how that establishes a pattern that you would find reliable for the rest of the game to the point that you would highlight it.
By asking "can [the three people on Zomg's wagon whose alignments we don't know] all be town", it felt like you were implying that one or more of us are scum. And that was on a D1 wagon on scum, which, statistically, has the best chance of being an all-town wagon of any wagon in any game. Yet you didn't extend that logic to the D2 or D3 wagons, which have a smaller pool of players, so are more likely to have scum on them. I felt like you were saying "hey, look at Rhand and Cantrip and Shadow; they might be scum bussing Zomg.......but don't look at Rhand+Meteor+Fulcrum on D2 or Rhand+Iso+Hunt+Fulcrum on D3."
Um...??? Rhand's 1739 is:
He wasn't talking about Zomg; he was talking about Ghosting...?
What about Iso's reaction makes you think he's town?
I'm somewhat suspicious of your slot because Scarbo claimed he didn't use his ability N1, which doesn't feel like a Town move. Even if he were mostly disconnected from the game, were I in his place I would have sent Brin a "in case I don't return in time because my life is crazy, roleblock [player x]" default. Your posts have felt much townier. I still think there's a good chance that one of you/Hunt/Shadow are scum because of roles, with Shadow being less likely because of the missing N1 kill.
This.
Those are all good points. Yeah, Iso is probably mafia.
I didn't mean to highlight it, it was more of an observation on a pattern. It's not like if I was scumreading Rhand I seeing this would change my mind that he is town and I don't think it should change anyones read on Rhand. I get what you are saying but it was just a pattern I noticed, I agree that I could have left it out of the post and it wouldn't change anything.
No that's not what my point was. I am just saying the wagon on day 1 had some people who voted for mafia and some people who didn't vote (and a town!Atog/me lol) so I think we can learn from it more than Day 2 where almost everyone voted for town, or Day 3 where the only wagon was Ghosting, so again not much to be learned. I would think a mafia would join a wagon on a mafia on Day 1 to credit town credit though.
Lol duh sorry for the brainfreeze.
I got genuine frustration about the Ghosting gambit and annoyance for getting his read wrong. Can it be faked? Sure, it just seemed real to me. One townie post doesn't erase the case for him being mafia though.
Also, there is no case on me.
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@Cantrip: I asked about shadow, not fonti. I forgot that you said Hunt targeted you; it's not that I didn't care about the answer to my question, it's that I didn't remember and couldn't be arsed to read through the Day at that point as, again, I was posting from mobile. My post comes from a town mindset because my team (and presumably the scum, as well) have been *****ting on my posting since I entered the game and I yelled at you guys not to get complacent due to the Day 1 scum lynch but ohhh nooo all I see on Day 2 is "hurr durr let's lynch Anak instead of Ghosting even though Ghosting is OBVIOUSLY LYING" on Day 2 and Ghosting flipping VT would have at least given Anak another Night to try to do something and made the scum choose between killing someone read more as town and someone that's a valuable PR. I'm demotivated because Ghosting's boneheaded move forced us to mislynch twice and it looks like I'm now on the chopping block and I just really don't care to argue with anyone because I want to lynch fonti and Hunt. Like, it's apparent that the scum are trying to keep that trio alive so that we don't immediately lynch the obvscum off of whatever the true townie among them flips. Our greatest chance to hit scum comes from lynching one of those three. I only have pause about lynching fonti and Hunt because this is a Normal and the town seems brutally underpowered, especially considering there was a Hitman that needed to kill a townie to win the game. I just can't wrap my head around this setup, and that's why I'm so indecisive at the moment. I think the strongest indicator of shadow being a scum Jailer here is that he targeted D_V on N1, who I suspect the mafia believed was an SK. I don't even care about winning this game at this point because I want to dissociate myself with the play I've seen so far from this town. Granted, it would be nice to win, still, and I don't want to do Brinatoo a disservice by not playing the game properly. But I'm very, very conflicted on a number of things for a number of reasons and it's drastically affecting my performance, here. Also, you're flat-out lying that people didn't want to lynch me before toDay because that was absolutely NOT the sentiment about me on Day 1.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I wanted to save this info for as late as possible but I am afraid I have to claim just to stop the plan.
You don't need to waste Shadow's protection on me just to clear me when I can do it myself.
I am Soldier:76, the Town 2-Shot Vigilante.
I targeted D_V night 1
I targeted scarbo night 2
Both times my shot fired but failed because Shadow freaking jailed them, so I don't have any shots left since Day 3. Yes I am currently working on publishing a book "The worst vig to ever vig", soon at your local stores.
I breadcrumbed it in my first post when I said "ya'll love playing me", because on Overwatch wikipedia it said on Soldier 76 page he is the most played character in the game. I made something with reference to other site because I was paranoid mafia will catch my breadcrumb.
If you guys want still don't believe me and want to confirm me? Shadow, don't jail me tonight. When I die and flip you will see I am not lying. Anyway, i still hate the coordinating we are doing, but if you really want to go with Rhand plan, better choose someone else.
Iso - If you are really town I hope this helps motivate you back into the game as I imagine we know the full setup now. Part of why I'm doing this is because I feel like if you really are town I would have kicked myself in the butt tomorrow for not saying anything today. If you are mafia, then you played me good but please roll over and die lol.
P.S Read my post I was talking about myself not being accused of being mafia over Atog lack of posting, not Atog himself.
No one died N1. That makes shadow confirmed town since Scarbo didn't block anyone and the doc claim was fake.
Even with DV having to kill arcwind, I think we would face 3 scum?
Can you walk me through why there should be 4 scum in that case?
You do know that I wasn't calling you scum there, right?
It bothers me that you didn't even mention Fulcrum anymore. And that you threw shade on Shadow.
I'm not sure what to think of meteor's claim. Iso just says town is underpowered and boom, he claims unprovable power.
Vig + NK + Hitman seems like a lot of possible deaths in one Night for a game this size.
And thinking he will die toNight is just weird.
@Meteor: do you really believe scum wants to kill you?
On the other hand, claiming power out of nowhere as scum with Iso and Fulcrum under scrutiny is completely unnecessary.
Nope you can't.
What do you want?
Also, it seems to me you are scum reading Iso. Why do you take pity on a scumspect and try to help them when you want them dead? This looks like cognitive dissonance to me, or even mild buddying/coaching. There is no need to help out Iso and his view of the game state unless you don't really want him dead.
@Hunt - You gotta stop tunelling me btw I wanted so bad to mention earlier when you kept accusing me: If I was really tunneling you, you would be long dead by now! What do I want? I want some thoughts on the game, hopwfully something besides me being mafia but I'll take anything I can get from you right now. Did you actually read my post you quoted or just the part I wrote for Iso? I wanted to stop Rhand plan where Shadow was gonna jail me. And why do you think I would fake claim to save Iso who is two votes away from being lynched? I was scumreading Iso, but his last posts seems genuine and I don't want to fail again, I would actually like to lynch mafia for the first time this game, so I want to make sure the person I'm voting for is mafia. I'm hoping this claim can also help me do that with Iso.
The problem is that shadow might not wake up toMorrow, and if we don't know who he targeted, we lose a lot of info.
You tried to push this agenda earlier, iirc, with something like "do players not voting Zomg get town points?" Looked it up: #1740. Why are you trying to clear those not on Zomg's wagon (you, Iso, Hunt, Fulcrum)?
Maybe I'm off-base here: @All: Do you agree with Meteor's assertion that those not on Zomg's wagon are less likely to be scum than those on? I don't feel like it's strongly indicative either way. (Meteor, feel free to correct this question if you feel like I'm misrepresenting your assertion.)
Meteor already corrected this, but to clarify: you indicate that the main reason you're getting attacked is because Kitty didn't post, but Meteor is in the same situation and isn't getting attacked for Atog not posting because he's actually playing and trying to solve the game.
First off, sorry that I thought you were asking about Fulcrum, not Shadow. Shadow claimed that he jailed Rhand, and Rhand posted after that, so I figured if that wasn't true, Rhand would have indicated that somehow. I probably thought he had confirmed in-thread because we discussed it in the Neighborhood.
I don't disagree with you that there's likely scum in those three; which of the three would you dayvig if you could? Why?
That's not what I said. I said that people weren't gunning for you yesterDay (D3), specifically, which is when you picked your play up off the ground, dusted it off, and actually made posts that sounded like you were thinking about the game.
Holy smokes. So DV goes berserk D1 and attracts the NK, a Vig shot, AND the jail protect. That's...insane. I feel like it's a little unlikely. Coming on the heels of me putting a little pressure on you, I'm leery that you're fakeclaiming to try and establish town cred. Iso indicating that the game is low-power gives you the opportunity, and then you coincidentally claim the two jail targets as your planned hits. The first target could be real, as you, performing the mafia NK, targeted DV and got blocked. The second one could be fake, to throw us off the trail. Your breadcrumb is a little weak, and really only points to your flavor character, NOT to being a 2-shot vig.
@Meteor: How, exactly, does you claiming unprovable power clear you?
...don't do this. If it's part of a strong plan that helps narrow down the field, that's fine, but I don't have a lot of faith that Rhand's plan is as strong as he originally indicated. If Brin confirms to Fulcrum that a roleblock on Hunt will prevent Hunt from posting in the Neighbor chat (so that we get that mod-confirmation), then it's a little better, but otherwise, I'd rather you made the scum work to succeed in a NK.
I'm still frustrated with Iso, but he continues to sound sincere. I want to look at Meteor's entrance to the game and DV interactions.
Regarding the point being the front and center - I was just typing stuff as I saw them, and that was the first thing I noticed, so I typed it first. I didn't rearrange my points based on importance, maybe I should have but I didn't think of it at the time. My approach to the voting wagon analysis was looking for patterns, because I figured thats the best way to get data, but I see now that's not the case. That's just my inexperience showing (It was the first time I ever tried doing a voting analysis and looking back I didn't do it well).
Can you please explain why would I note that as mafia though, and what does "obscure things on purpose" mean? I mean I made it pretty clear that I am townreading Rhand already, so I don't see what I would gain as mafia. So while I agree this point could have easily been left out, I'm still not sure why is making it scummy?
You don't misrepresent my assertion, and it was exactly what I was asking earlier. Maybe you will have better luck in getting replies. I did want to know what other people think because it looked weird to me a mafia wouldn't use the chance to bus a fellow mafia member to get town credit, but you three are my top 3 town reads so I was getting worried I was being played by one of you. I actually hoped that other players would say its a non issue too and then I could just let it go and keep reading you guys as town in peace.
I agree that sounds unlikely but I really dig shoot D_V at the first night. I went through all the game when I replaced in and I was debating between D_V and Huntzilla. The reason I decided to shoot D_V is the CC by Rodemy who I thought was obviously town, and the fact that D_V admitted to lying before which I didn't think came from a town mindset. Another funny thing is that I saw D_V is a town PR which made me worry that there is a small chance I was gonna take down a town PR but I figured hey if he is really a town PR then maybe the mafia will shoot him too and then it won't matter. Little did I know they really would shoot him but apperantly for completely different reasons?
The breadcrumb also points to me being a vig because if you look at the wikipedia page (I would put the link but I'm on mobile so its hard right now, can do later on computer) it says on the right on the occupation Vigilante. I did think about adding a different breadcrumb just for the vig part but I decided it was too risky to get caught and this breadcrumb is enough.
I felt it clear me, because while I didn't actually succeed in killing anyone, I felt like by revealing all this info with addition to my play it wouldn't make any sense that I am faking all this stuff as mafia so people would believe me pretty easily. Apperantly I was wrong. Regarding Iso comments it was the straw the broke the camel back for me. I was debating with myself all day if to reveal myself or not and when I read and believed how much Iso is discouraged by the setup, I just felt I had to say something before we potentially lose another town player and I could have done something about it. I feel like if I were mafia I would play it completely different and it doesn't make sense for me to claim this right now in some weird attempt to save Iso, I would probably just stay the course and try keep looking as town as possible without making waves, probably adding the third vote on Iso if he was my mafia buddy to gain town credit (just like my point before on the ZOMG wagon). Also, don't you think its weird a mafia that shot D_V at night 1 would claim a vig that shot him? It's like setting yourself up to look questionable, wouldn't mafia want to avoid that?
Agreed, I would rather also Shadow won't reveal, I hate this coordinating in the thread where mafia sees everything. If there is any loophole in the plan I'm sure they will figure it out at night and use it, and I don't believe this plan doesn't have a loophole.
This time I'm not gonna ask you to look at someone else because I feel like if you really think I am lying about the claim then I should be sorted out and re-read, if you can put all the notes and questions for me here I can explain my mindset and hopefully you can see I am really the town 2-shot vig.
___________________________________
I'm not sure that not claiming my target ahead of time is the correct choice here, I'll think on it, I'm trying to figure out the best line of play. I think trying to protect is probably not worth it here either, but I'm going to run through some scenarios in my head.
Also, wouldn't hunt being role blocked just prevent him from adding another player to his neighborhood? I think that means hunt has to target someone who is sure not to die, fulcrum being the best choice.
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@Rhand: I guess that makes sense; I actually didn't consider that shadow would be confirmed town for that, for some reason. I think I was still hedging on the fonti slot still being scum, but that wouldn't make any sense as why would scarbo block his buddy and also claim no block on N1? That means that fonti and Hunt are basically confirmed scum at this point and I'm fine with lynching either toDay.
Thank you for talking some sense into me about shadow; Night 1 was a hodgepodge of confusion for me since I was still sorting things out.
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@Cantrip: I'd Vig fonti for the reasons outlined above and to take a Roleblocker out of the equation.
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@shadow: Please don't claim your target for toNight until Day 5.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
1. He was asking if D_V was still neutral or did he claim town.
2. He claimed not to roleblock anyone.
About D_V I remember saying he will off someone towards the lynch which made me pause and go "wait that's my role" but I figured it was another one of his gambits. It didn't even cross my mind to CC there...
@Rhand/Shadow - It would require not lynching Iso today, would you be ok with that? Yes I am aware it looks like I'm protecting Iso but you will see in my plan thats not the case at all.
Oh what the heck I'm just gonna say it and hope you guys believe me and will go with the plan - I actually have my second shot, I never used it on Night 2 and Night 3, I didn't actually shoot scarbo it was just my cover to not let mafia know I have a second shot. I was debating whether to use it tonight and clear myself, depends on my reads strength and how confident I am at guessing Shadow's jailing so N1 won't happen all over again.
My plan is lynch fulcrum today so I won't get roleblocked, I vig Iso at night and Shadow jails Hunt.
We should be able to both prevent the NK and also my vig will go through and confirm me town tomorrow.
If somehow the NK goes through - If they kill me it has to be one of the three guys on the townblock, or it was Iso and he has another partner if the game isn't over.
If they kill someone else we use my townconfirm status to join whoever left of the 3 guys townlock and lynched whoever is left based on POE.
If the NK doesn't go through, lynch Hunt tomorrow and that should win us the game.
Putting aside for a moment believing me or not, this we can prove if Iso dies tonight or not - Anyone see any holes in my plan?
Adding my vote, as from my point its the best way to win, but I will consider Unvoting if someone explains the flaw in the plan.
Vote fulcrum
I'm not against the plan as I think Iso + Fulcrum is the scumteam anyways.
If there's a third, it's either you (but with what you said now you should clear yourself toNight), Cantrip or maaaaaaybe Hunt.
I think it's actually smarter to jail Cantrip instead of Hunt because Hunt has a self-proving Night action. Although I guess that's wifom as I've seen quite some games where the last scum can use their normal action and kill the same Night.
@Shadow: feel free to not announce who you jail. Just don't jail Iso or meteor lol.
(there's no way Fulcrum is town and Meteor having an extra NK shot as scum, right?)
First off, if we're at 4 town and 3 scum, a mislynch loses the game even if Meteor hits scum unless Shadow prevents the kill (-1 town, -1 scum vigged, -1 town nk = 2-2, scum win). This also means that if we're at 4-3, Iso's town unless both Rhand and Shadow are scum (otherwise they would have hammered him and won).
However, I think it's much more likely that we're at 5/2, so with that gamestate in mind, let's take a look at applying this plan to a few scenarios:
• Iso/Fulcrum: Game is solved.
• If only one of Iso/Fulcrum are scum: One town gets lynched/vigged, one scum gets lynched/vigged, Shadow likely gets NK'd (or possibly Meteor), and we're left with Hunt, Rhand, one of Meteor/Shadow, and me, with 3 town and 1 scum, so we're in lylo. The Meteor/Shadow slot is town, so we have to correctly choose between Hunt, Rhand, and myself.
• If neither Iso or Fulcrum are scum: Unless Shadow prevents a kill, we lose 3 town and start toMorrow at 2-2, scum win.
Alternatively, how about:
1. We lynch Fulcrum to remove the roleblock from the picture. (5-1 if Fulcrum's scum, 4-2 if not)
2. Shadow jails Meteor for protection, but we lose another town. (4-1 if Fulcrum's scum, 3-2 if not)
3. toMorrow, if Fulcrum was scum, we still get two more lynches to find the last scum (Meteor does NOT use his vig shot that Night, as a misfire would eliminate that extra lynch). If Fulcrum was not scum, we're still in lylo, but we have near-confirmed town in Shadow and Meteor, so we have 2/3 chances of hitting scum among Hunt, Rhand, and me (hint: it's Hunt and Rhand at that point. ;))
I feel like Meteor's plan is AWESOME if both Iso or Fulcrum are scum, and strong if only one of them is, but if neither of them are, we lose. My plan isn't as flashy, but has no chance of us losing toNight.
This is, of course, dependent on Meteor being town. He could be scum painting his NK as a vig shot (in which case, Iso's town). So we should probably do some digging. I started looking at his D2 posts, and I'm not sure I see "frustrated vig who lost his shot on DV N1", but then again, I don't see "frustrated scum who lost his NK on DV N1" either. If anyone has any free time to analyze Meteor's posts D2/D3 and see how likely it is that he had a vig shot and didn't use it N2, that would be awesome. I can work toward that, as well, but I'm about out of time for a while, and I need to check in on my other game, too.
We also need to remember that deadline is in about 3 days, 11 hours. Still plenty of time, but let's not get lazy.
[b]Unvote[b]
How much time do we have before the deadline? I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
Preview edit: okay, cantrip vomitted all of my thoughts into the thread.
Again, a close scrutiny of his posts--preferably from more than one person to prevent a scumbuddy from being the only one vouching for him--is probably in order before we move forward on either plan.
@Shadow: I'm confused. Are you suggesting we go with Meteor's plan or my plan?
I didn't use my shot because I thought Anak is mafia and when he flipped town I lost all confidence in my reads, and took a calculated risk I'm not gonna be the mafia target and saved my shot. Last night I didn't shoot because I thought there are 3 mafia left and if I kill town we lose.
I think your plan is better Cantrip if you all believe I'm town but I doubt you all are. And yeah like I said my plan only works if you three are town, if fulcrum/Iso are town then it means one of you three are mafia and then my plan doesn't work.
I will barely have time to post in the next 36 hours, I will try to at least provide short answers. Bad timing I know but I promise to answer anything in details after.
And @Rhand no I am not mafia and I never heard of such thing as mafia having a double kill at night, if that's a serious question. I trust Cantrip way more than Hunt, but I never saw your chat.
Why did you think we had 3 mafia left at that point?
I've played games where the mafia have a 1-shot extra kill, sometimes during the Day, sometimes at Night. They almost always use it N1 or N2 to try to remove PRs early, but there was one--can't remember which--where it was saved until the last Night to end the game one Night sooner than it should have been. That said, it seems like general site sentiment right now is that extra mafia kills are a little OP, so I'd be surprised to find one in a normal.
Still doesn't exclude the possibility of you "vigging" suspicious town when you're really just performing the NK, but...
You may not have breadcrumbed vig specifically, but your responses to game events can still be telling.
Ok, I have a little time, so I'm taking a look at your posts.
710: (Your first post.) You mention that you're aware of DV trying a lying gambit in Cops and mention that there are others in this game that were in that game.
I haven't actually read that game, so fill me in: he was scum there, I'm guessing, and was his gambit successful?
You also mildly question DV and end with "My thoughts is D_V looks more suspect between the two because he lied, but first I'd like to understand why he claimed Tracer after us getting ZOMG, and then claiming non VT. I don't get that, regardless of alignment." It feels a little odd that there's no hint of frustration from a failed vig shot there, but maybe you're just really good at masking it. I feel like hiding that frustration would be more likely to come from scum, as you'd be being careful not to acknowledge that you know anything about a failed kill, but I could also see that coming from a vig with another shot. (Outcome: Null)
718 is your "catchup post": In response to DV's indication that he was jailed but wasn't the kill target, you say:
...this feels a little off coming from a vig. This would feel like a natural time for a vig to innocently say "Did you even consider the fact that you might be vigged for acting so crazily?" But you don't. And I would think that knowing that you tried to vig him AND that there was no NK would increase the likelihood in your mind of a doctor/roleblocker possibility, so I need to look for your perspective on that later on. You also paint DV as likely to be mafia based on Zomg's assertions. Not sure if that's indicative or not. (Overall: slightly -town)
726:
Again, if you're a vig, you should be hella suspicious of this supposed killing jailer, as that would make him your role + huge bonus. I don't see that here, but maybe you go into that later. (-town)
764 you indicate that DV was likely lying (either about the jailer, or about the jailer having a kill), so that could explain why you're not suspicious of the jailer. (+town)
783 you continue to question DV on the jailer's motivation. (+town)
814 you respond to my suggestion that the lack of N1 kill was because "DV would have been the one to perform it and he got jailed" by saying "I agree its the most likely, but lets try to think of other possibilities.
What do you think those other possibilities might be, even if they are less likely?" Does this come from town vig? A town vig knows that a kill against DV was prevented, but also suspects that it's not the NK that was prevented...oy, I can't decide if this is in line with your claim or not. The end of that post you do speculate on the possibility of a jailer + doctor combo (+likelihood you're vig), but then ask if it's wrong to want DV to stay in the game for entertainment value (which I don't see as likely to come from vig). (Overall: null)
828 you reverse and seem to think it unlikely that there's both jailer and doctor.
850 you shift your attention away from DV and onto Hunt. If you felt strongly enough about DV to vig him N1, what convinced you to move away from his lynch on D2? (-town)
853: First off, what did you mean when you said "Someone is hungry"?
Second, you list three possibilities: DV is town because of how he speculated on the lack of NK, or DV's lying about the jailer, or the mafia can kill while jailed. You conclude that you think it's the first one, which means that you believed at that point that a jailer existed. Shadow hadn't confessed at that point that he didn't actually have a kill (hadn't even claimed), so--again--you should have been very suspicious of this "other vig-type role". But I don't see that. (-town)
954: You indicate suspicion of Rhand, and ask him how jailer claiming helps town. Yet another opportunity to express suspicion that there's another vig role out there, but you seem to be against the jailer claiming. (-town)
967: This is an aside, but I find it hilarious that you were suspicious of Rod being a neutral that needed DV dead, when it looks like the exact opposite was the case.
1045: You cast doubt on the existence of the jailer role again. (+town)
1104: If you're not town vig, there is some massive irony in you questioning Ghosting on what happened N1 when he's talking about the unlikelihood of a doctor role in the game. That would be like, fake-claim-ception.
1121: You seem to be open to the idea of a doctor (+town vig-oscity), and also support the RB'er claiming (also +town vig-oscity, as it helps explain the lack of NK when your perspective is that DV was unlikely to be NK'd).
1164: You briefly explain why you're not focused on DV anymore, which would help explain why you didn't just try to vig DV again N2. Still not sure why you didn't vig N2. Vig shots get riskier and riskier as Days go by; even with newly-shaken reads, I'd have been more likely to vig than not. But you're not me, and it's not a clear-cut optimal play, so I certainly can't project that definitively onto you. (Overall: +town)
1256: This feels somewhat indicative to me. You seem to demonstrate that you're aware that players should re-evaluate when other roles come to light, but you still haven't expressed any suspicion of the jailer. (-town)
1298: You again speculate on the possibility of a doctor. (+town)
1474: You finally are starting to search for the jailer. (+town)
1501: Shadow has claimed jailer, but unfortunately clarified that he didn't really have a kill before you posted. Nuts. I was hoping to find a smoking gun (or lack thereof, when you didn't pounce on him).
Ok, so I'm still uncertain here. On the one hand, if I'm town vig, ANY whiff of another vig role raises my hackles, and I don't see that from you at all. Not when you hear about Jailer-With-a-Kill, not when DV mike-drops at the end of D2. The DV thing is understandable given how many gambits he ran, but the jailer part is concerning.
On the other hand, you're sorta all over the place on your jailer stance, so it's harder to get a read on what you really thought. Possible that this is because you're scum uncertain if it's safe to falseclaim (or just scum, not really considering falseclaiming at that point), but it's also possible that you're town vig, uncertain on what can be trusted and/or just not reacting the way I would.
Unfortunately, this is the second time I've taken a closer look at Meteor's posts and felt a little sucker-punched, so I'm less inclined to trust him. I encourage others to continue looking at posts after 1500 (and/or reviewing the ones I've already looked at), but I am DEFINITELY out of time, now, so for now I'm going to leave it at "I don't trust Meteor enough to follow his plan, especially when there's a chance that plan wins the game for scum." If Iso and Fulcrum are scum, we should suss them out via the normal lynch process. Yes, that means a longer game and more work for all involved, but I think it's worth it.
My only qualm with the plan is that I think Rhand has a strong chance of being the 4th scum, at this point. I don't think scumCantrip would cede to frustratedIso, and would be willing to still push that lynch prior to the Vig reveal. That means that Rhand is infinitely more likely to be the 4th scum than Cantrip at this point.
So, lynch fonti, Vig me, Jail Hunt, see what happens. But in an endgame scenario where Rhand is alive, please lynch him. That said, based on role analysis, I think Hunt is a better lynch than Rhand at this point.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Does scum!Iso really say this while also supporting a plan that involves lynching scum!Fulcrum?
Iso(1): Rhand
fulcrum(1): Mete0rShower
Deadline is fast approaching February, 12th 2200 EST. (about 73 hours from now)
fulcrum will be prodded tomorrow after I get off work
It's possible that shadow is scum and targetted a town n1 who his team then shot in order to get a clear down the line, but that sounds unnecessarily convoluted and unlikely.
That leaves Hunt, Iso, Rhand and Cantrip.
Rhand and Iso aren't together. I'm going to assume Hunt can only be mafia if Rhand is also mafia, because I can't see the logs that have convinced Rhand.
Since I can adjust my block after Iso flip, I can use it to decide whether to block between Cantrip and Rhand or Hunt and Rhand. Since I'm dying anyway to the vig shot (?) proving my ability is pointless and less important than stopping the night kill. Obviously, I would like to know who Shadow plans to block so I can react accordingly.
Will finish catching and responding to things tomorrow. Sorry, it's been a bit of a time.
For what it's worth, I think the repeated use of the word "at this point" is scummy, which pushes me towards the Cantrip/Iso world.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player