So I looked at that game manders linked but I couldn't find anything to indicate how he handled night actions. Though tha game as 11 years ago and probably couldn't really be used for mod meta anyway. I was hoping to find whether he did or didn't allow scum to action and kill on the same night. A no would mean that axel was clear.
I did find it interesting that there were several neutrals in that game and axelrod was one of them, so I'm not sure why he's soooo disbelieving that cythare would accept another neutral in the game.
It's a moot point to discuss Today for me. My thoughts on plan haven't changed, and you suggested the one change to the plan that I was hoping somebody would point out.
Really? You suggested a sub-optimal plan on purpose to see if anyone would say anything?
We do need to actually lynch Cyth. before the deadline too:
Vote: Cythare
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Axel I absolutely expect for you to use all the tools at your disposal when reading a game. You'd be the worst player in the world if you didn't, not if you think about the very vast gulf between my town and scum game.
Why have you read manders as town since your first post again? Oh right azrael wouldn't give her scum and she seemed excited to play.
My apologies to the very thorough way you're Redding people. And I wouldn't be surprised that you don't remember anything I've gone, I doubt you've actually read anything I've said. The only time you mentioned me was to answer a question i asked about your role and to say you preferred lynching me today. You say that cyan was a suspect of yours yesterday so why didn't you talk to me when I was trying to get someone to comment or talk to me about my cyan suspicions?
And you've been playing a bit too long to go durr hurr durr hurr seppel claimed neutral lynch all liars. That is probably the most superficial reasoning you could throw out there. But you keep being you!
You seem upset.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I started going through this and got pretty far but my Internet is crapping out, so I'm just going to post this for now.
So I've been wracking my brain about who the last scum could be, and I know that this is something that both Axelrod and Tammy have asked this, so I spent some time today reviewing. I'll admit that I'd been coasting toDay because I thought that I was done, but I don't want to be the default lynch because I'm not town.
-Megiddo's play has been town both in the spec thread and since entering, and his interactions in our 1-on-1 have reinforced this
-DoTA could be scum but could be dealt with tomorrow
-I think that Seppel's/Tammy's play points to town
-Manders's interactions with flipped scum seem good
-Axelrod has been largely absent and only really came into the game after I'd daykilled and then again when I claimed my alignment.
This leads me to believe (despite what I discussed with Megiddo last Night) that Axelrod is the remaining scum and is trying to push my lynch toDay since it's easy enough for scum to push on a Neutral.
Interactions (largely borrowed from Megs):
Iso to others:
ANA |||—--
AXE ||||
CYA ||||-----
CYT |-
MAN |||||||------
TOM |||||||||||-----
SEP ||||||||||||-------
Others to Iso:
ANA ||||------
AXE ||-----
CYA ||||-----------
CYT |||-----
MAN |||||||||||-------------------
TOM |||||||||||||||----------------
SEP ||||||||||||||||---------
TIM ||||||||-
WIL |-----
DV ||||||||||||----
Bur
CHR |----
SHA ||||||--
TCM ||||||||----------------
TOR ||
GJ to others:
ANA ||||----------------
AXE |||------
CYA |||||||||||-----
CYT ||||||||----
MAN ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||--------------
TOM ||||||||||||||-------------
SEP |||||||||||||||||------------------
TIM ||||||||||||-------
WIL ||||||||||||||---------------------
D_V |||||||||||||||||||-----
BUR ||------
CHR ||||||||||||||--------
ISO |||||||||||-----
SHA ||||||||||||||----------
TOR ||-----
Bur |-
Sir Chris ||||--------
Tordeck
D_V ||||||||||||----------------------
Iso ||||||---------
I don't want to do the Wildfire to others ATM.
Others to Wildfire:
AXE |----------
CYA ||||||--
CYT |||||-------
MAN ||||||||||||--------
MEG |||||||---
SEP ||||||---------
TIM ||
TOM ||||||||||||||||-----------
ANA ||---
BUR |
CHR ||-
D_V ||||||||||--------
ISO ----
SHA |||||
TCM |||||||||------
TOR ||-
He largely avoids interacting with Iso (although Iso does engage him a few times), and then does some interaction with GJ but not so much with Wildfire until he engages over the 3 killing roles. He largely coasts by from Day to Day until this point, at which point he leverages his breadcrumb from earlier on (coupled with WF's questionable play) and then latches onto my neutral role toDay and tries to paint me as scum. What of my play has specifically been scummy/questionable other than my lie about redirecting Wildfire Night 1 and my late claim? I've been working with the Town to further their win condition as best I could from early on, motivating D_V Night 2 and killing the lowest hanging fruit Day 4 to help out with POE.
EWP: He does actually engage a bunch during D3, but he still completely ignores GJ in this process, which I really don't like. Wildfire didn't toe the party line, so he becomes the better bus.
Day 1: Axelrod does basically nothing. He gives Manders early town points, and playfully walks it back quickly when asked by her about it. He then openly fixates on the empowerment thing, questions people giving Seppel empowerment and subtly slings mud at Sir Chris while also proclaiming him town. He spends a lot of the rest of the Day fixated on empowerment related to Seppel until he pivots to Sir Chris as scum. He doesn't have any of the flipped scum anywhere other than neutral here, saying that he doesn't like GJ and Iso because they're not as much of a presence, which could be a subtle coaching of both of them to get in the game. Wildfire isn't on here, but given that his predecessory had 0 activity, that makes sense.
Day 2: Starts by looking confused about Chris dying, which could go either way. He pushes on Wildfire a bit about Chris's death while also stating that Iso and myself look slightly better for empowering Chris D1. He's then largely absent for a while, showing up to post a list and then say that Wildfire's ability is "pretty overpowered for scum" - this feels relevant to me because suddenly two scum with killing roles isn't overpowered? He then ends up fencesitting pretty hard on GJ and then disappearing/posting apologies for the rest of D2.
Day 3: Goes back and finishes his assessment of the Bur wagon, saying that the worst are GJ, Anak and Seppel, but walks back the importance of his own analysis by saying its "just one data point". He then does a complete 180 on Wildfire after the quickdraw with D_V is announced, which could come from either alignment, but the unhappiness looks like it's more about Wildfire's choice. The "the fact that you did this on your own" reinforces that for me - he did something that goes against what Axelrod would have wanted to do. He does some assessment of the Iso lynch, which does look good. He mentions that he doesn't think that it's worth it for him to get empowerment until he can get to, then walks back and says he thinks he can do something with "just one more" which I take to mean hitting the threshold of 2. He casts some shade on Megs, then presses Manders about her 5-empower ability. He interacts with Seppel a bit to question his towniness while saying Anak and Wildfire likely aren't buddies, which does look good. He then apologizes for his absence again. Here he brings back up his 2 v 4 abilities, saying his 2 ability would clear him with a large drawback (the extra NK which he shares).
Vote Axelrod
I'll try to dig into this more, but will be working a PPTQ tomorrow, so it may be spotty until the evening. If you still want to lynch me first, I don't really know what to tell you.
I do not actually think you have been "wracking your brains" to figure out who the last scum is.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
It's a moot point to discuss Today for me. My thoughts on plan haven't changed, and you suggested the one change to the plan that I was hoping somebody would point out.
Really? You suggested a sub-optimal plan on purpose to see if anyone would say anything?
We do need to actually lynch Cyth. before the deadline too:
Vote: Cythare
No, I suggested a plan, then realized it contained a major flaw and waited on pointing it out to see if anybody else would notice.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Manders checking out at end game is disconcerting.
Axelrod's sticky read and refusal to answer a question with Anyang other than slime discrediting is concerning.
?
What question? And who discrediting? I haven't intentionally avoided answering anything this game. I have, however, checked out for long stretches due to life, and not done as much reviewing as I would have normally liked to do, which I've apologized for.
And seriously, Tammy, if you think there's a better plan here, propose it. You get how leaving Cyth. alive means (even if he IS Neutral) that he can just win with the scum tomorrow. Plus he has a potential re-direct and a potential day-kill? That's the definition of a wildcard. None of that is good in an endgame. And his claimed actions are just sketchy (why would he re-direct WF to himself that night - the night after WF said he was using an ability that might kill himself) like he claimed? He said because he thought that WF was using an ability that might give him some empower, but that really doesn't follow. Redirect is a very strong ability, you don't throw it away like that. Redirecting someone you don't know to yourself? Esp. if it costs 3 of his empower like he claimed. How much empower did he think he was going to get from WF? More than 3? WF said his ability only required 1 to use. It just doesn't make any sense. And then WF never said anything about being re-directed, and Cyth. never said anything about the ability he received from WF (which WF never claimed to have had) and didn't call out WF for being a liar? Come on.
I also just realized I think Meg. should give that 5 empower he's been sitting on away tonight, just to prove he didn't secretly give it to someone else.
I'm going to be out most of the day today, but I'll be back before the deadline.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Now I'm sitting here trying to figure out who Meg. should give his empower to who won't be dying tonight so they can confirm tomorrow they got it. I think the most likely NK targets are either DoTA because he's supposedly mod-confirming himself, or me because I have a gun and could theoretically still make this game a draw even with a mislynch. So neither one of us seems great. That leaves between Tammy and Manders. And I need to know so I don't shoot that person.
Meg? Do you have an opinion on this?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Axel, you keep talking about how my actions have been sketchy. Yes, Wildfire said he had that ability. He also said he had an empower ability. I've already claimed that I was hoping it would be permanent. What's Wildfire's plan after he realized that I got the ability over someone else (presumably a scumbuddy)? One-for-one with me? Say that he got redirected and get heat for doing something other than the Quick Draw (which he did anyways, but would have drawn extra unnecessary heat)?
I didn't claim it because I didn't want to claim my redirect ability that early on and opted to push on him in other ways later on instead. It's not like I completely ignored him. Night 1 aside, I've done my best to work with the town to further their win condition via providing analysis, motivating D_V (whose ability I didn't know for sure but was clearly Town and believed enough that his ability would provide value), and daykilled the top lynch D4 to help narrow down POE.
You can keep working on fearmongering that I'll win with the scum instead of the town, but I don't get how it isn't clear that I've been striving to do the exact opposite for basically the entire game.
I'm still fine no lynching, but I will be back before deadline, I'm getting ready to head out for lunch.
Anyway went over my main issues during a swim this morning, and
I still would like to figure out a way town and cythare can win.
I'm going to take the leap and trust Megiddo.
My manders read is still the same as the reads list I provided when I replaced in. My red flags here are that she's checked out of end game, wildfire shot dv instead of her despite proclaiming a strong scum read on her since replacing in, and ISO treated her in a similar fashion to the rest of his scum buddies.
Expecting dota to confirm himself so not considering this right now.
Problems with axel are he just hasn't done anything. Literally the way he claimed is the towniest thing about him. He claimed he shot cyan because he suspected him, in part because cyan suspected him, but he not once responded to my cyan suspicions, didn't vig me either I asked to be shot if I was in the Poe and now is using seppel lied as a reason to lynch me which is super shallow and I think he shot cyan instead of me because I would be easier to mislynch. His suspicion of cyan was partly because how he defended we but stil town reads manders even though she strongly defending ISO. Because she was happy at the beginning of the game. He just does not seem to be trying to figure out the game at all.
A no-lynch really only makes sense here if Axel doesn't shoot use his other shot, since that means that we wouldn't be in LyLo/MyLo tomorrow. But given his stance on me, I'm expecting that not to happen even if I don't get lynched here.
I have another idea. Manders, do you have any empowerment lying around?
If we trust that she is town, we could give me 1 empowerment and give her enough to get to 5 empowerment. I can then motivate her tonight so that she can use her -5 as a double-roleblock, which would be extremely risky for scum to shoot into if her "if the NK is blocked this way, the town wins". I'm happy to be one of the two targets if that's the best way to go about handling it.
This would let us lynch toDay and probably go into tomorrow with 5, unless the scum is super ballsy and isn't chosen, or Manders is lying and/or is scum. That doesn't really help sort out how to approach the lynch toDay, though.
But if we go into tomorrow with 5 and empower him then, he could be cleared N6, which may be better if we can multi-clear/multi-killblock toNight? He'd either be the kill N6 or go into LyLo confirmed (or get lynched in LyLo for not being cleared, I guess).
I think this idea has too much risk involved, if you're being honest about your role then offering yourself up as one of the targets means that Manders has a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum with the roleblock. And if Manders is scum then she can target me, call me out for not proving me role and have me mislynched leading to scum winning this. I think the best courselves of action is to lynch today, preferably not have Axel fire his vig shot, and with four alive tomorrow we can afford a no-lynch to narrow the POE.
It's not an actual roleblock, so you won't be affected. As claimed, it blocks killing abilities, takes away the ability to kill if it successfully blocks a kill, and causes the town to automatically win if the Mafia NK is blocked this way. Unless I'm not remembering it correctly.
Also, DoTA, note that my plan involves you potentially activating your IC tomorrow night, not tonight. An IC is less useful in a MyLo situation than a LyLo situation, since a no-lynch there is just going to result in your death. If you could activate it tonight, that would be ideal, but requires Manders having 2 empowerment.
Well, that's just dandy. Most of you have to be town here, so there's really no excuse.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Ok cool, we have the extension, so we should use it. That being said, I can't dig into this until the morning, but should be around most of the day tomorrow starting around 8 or 9 am est.
This is kind of ridiculous. I mean, 4 people didn't vote.
@Meg: I'm actually looking most slant-eyed at you, given you've actually been active and involved and this was like, your plan. What's up with that?
@everyone: I suppose I get how, if I am still a suspect in your minds (despite the inherent ridiculousness of that, on top of WF's role) you might not like this plan. I am not seeing another suggestion, however, aside from "No Lynching" which seems like a completely terrible idea.
What happens if we No Lynch? 6 go to night and then the scum can kill DOTA and I could kill ***someone*** but then tomorrow we are where? Four people alive, it's still lynch or lose, but how have our odds improved? Seems like we've got worse odds than the plan currently being proposed. Unless you are saying that my demonstrating another kill would make a difference to you. But, we'd still be in a precarious situation, and, in fact - even if Cyth. is telling the complete truth - he could basically guarantee himself a win by aligning with the scum in a 2-2. Frankly, I'd likely have to shoot him tonight just so that couldn't happen, but if he weren't last scum, we have worse odds.
Or you are suggesting that I not shoot anyone either, meaning 5 tomorrow. Which is not Lynch or lose, theoretically. But again, in that situation, how has anything changed at all from where we are right now, except we are a man down? We have lost the chance to put us in what seems like a potentially trivial endgame, not increased our odds of a correct lynch, and at the same time, greatly increased risk of shenanigans.
I'm missing where this helps us in any way.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Also, you keep repeating that I can win with the scum, which is true, but I feel like I've more than demonstrated that I've been working with the town as best I can (other than Night 1 where I was selfish and it backfired).
I think this idea has too much risk involved, if you're being honest about your role then offering yourself up as one of the targets means that Manders has a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum with the roleblock. And if Manders is scum then she can target me, call me out for not proving me role and have me mislynched leading to scum winning this. I think the best courselves of action is to lynch today, preferably not have Axel fire his vig shot, and with four alive tomorrow we can afford a no-lynch to narrow the POE.
It's not an actual roleblock, so you won't be affected.
I think the best plan is a No Lynch. Empower me, then motivate so I block twice tonight. We're almost definitely at just 1 Scum left, so if I block that one from performing the NK, then we win the game. Of course, smart Scum would just NOT SHOOT tonight, but even still, that's a win scenario for us, too. If Meg decides to gift his 5 empowerment to me, I can use it tomorrow Night, too, and have 2 chances. Give Axel empowerment to shoot. DoTA can IC tomorrow Night.
I'm curious why you feel your role on top of Wildfire's is ridiculous as scum but mine isn't.
I'm agreeing it would be bad. Multiple scums with extra kills in a game this size would be bad. The main difference is that your role appears more conditional and also costs more empower. So it seems at least theoretically possible. And the other side of it is, as I've said multiple times, it almost doesn't even matter if you really are "neutral." It still just seems like the safest play.
I think this idea has too much risk involved, if you're being honest about your role then offering yourself up as one of the targets means that Manders has a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum with the roleblock. And if Manders is scum then she can target me, call me out for not proving me role and have me mislynched leading to scum winning this. I think the best courselves of action is to lynch today, preferably not have Axel fire his vig shot, and with four alive tomorrow we can afford a no-lynch to narrow the POE.
It's not an actual roleblock, so you won't be affected.
I think the best plan is a No Lynch. Empower me, then motivate so I block twice tonight. We're almost definitely at just 1 Scum left, so if I block that one from performing the NK, then we win the game. Of course, smart Scum would just NOT SHOOT tonight, but even still, that's a win scenario for us, too. If Meg decides to gift his 5 empowerment to me, I can use it tomorrow Night, too, and have 2 chances. Give Axel empowerment to shoot. DoTA can IC tomorrow Night.
Sorry I was gone. Let's do this.
Vote: No Lynch
What ability are you talking about using Manders? The one that removes someone's ability to kill permanently? This is not a "role-block" though, right? And it costs 5 empower which you do not currently have? How would you even get to 5 empower for tonight?
I am definitely missing something here.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The only way for her to get to 5 empower and also have me motivate her if she doesn't have any empowerment is for everyone else to empower her and for her to empower me, since there are 6 of us remaining.
I did find it interesting that there were several neutrals in that game and axelrod was one of them, so I'm not sure why he's soooo disbelieving that cythare would accept another neutral in the game.
Really? You suggested a sub-optimal plan on purpose to see if anyone would say anything?
We do need to actually lynch Cyth. before the deadline too:
Vote: Cythare
You seem upset.
So I've been wracking my brain about who the last scum could be, and I know that this is something that both Axelrod and Tammy have asked this, so I spent some time today reviewing. I'll admit that I'd been coasting toDay because I thought that I was done, but I don't want to be the default lynch because I'm not town.
-Megiddo's play has been town both in the spec thread and since entering, and his interactions in our 1-on-1 have reinforced this
-DoTA could be scum but could be dealt with tomorrow
-I think that Seppel's/Tammy's play points to town
-Manders's interactions with flipped scum seem good
-Axelrod has been largely absent and only really came into the game after I'd daykilled and then again when I claimed my alignment.
This leads me to believe (despite what I discussed with Megiddo last Night) that Axelrod is the remaining scum and is trying to push my lynch toDay since it's easy enough for scum to push on a Neutral.
Interactions (largely borrowed from Megs):
ANA |||—--
AXE ||||
CYA ||||-----
CYT |-
MAN |||||||------
TOM |||||||||||-----
SEP ||||||||||||-------
TIM ||||||-
WIL |||-----
D_V ||||||---
BUR ||—
CHR |||||||-
SHA ||-
TCM |||||||||----
TOR ---
GHO |
VOX |
PRO ||
Others to Iso:
ANA ||||------
AXE ||-----
CYA ||||-----------
CYT |||-----
MAN |||||||||||-------------------
TOM |||||||||||||||----------------
SEP ||||||||||||||||---------
TIM ||||||||-
WIL |-----
DV ||||||||||||----
Bur
CHR |----
SHA ||||||--
TCM ||||||||----------------
TOR ||
ANA ||||----------------
AXE |||------
CYA |||||||||||-----
CYT ||||||||----
MAN ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||--------------
TOM ||||||||||||||-------------
SEP |||||||||||||||||------------------
TIM ||||||||||||-------
WIL ||||||||||||||---------------------
D_V |||||||||||||||||||-----
BUR ||------
CHR ||||||||||||||--------
ISO |||||||||||-----
SHA ||||||||||||||----------
TOR ||-----
Others to GJ:
Anaklusmos ||||||--------------
Axelrod ||||---------
Cyan ||||||-------------
Cythare ||||||||||----------
DoTArchon/TheIceMan |||||||||||||||-----
Manders ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||---------------------------------------------------
shadowlancerx |||||||||||||||-------------------
Tammy/Seppel ||||||||||||||||--------------------------
tomsloger |||||||||||||||||||||||------------------------------------
Wildfire393 ||||||||||---------------
Bur |-
Sir Chris ||||--------
Tordeck
D_V ||||||||||||----------------------
Iso ||||||---------
Others to Wildfire:
AXE |----------
CYA ||||||--
CYT |||||-------
MAN ||||||||||||--------
MEG |||||||---
SEP ||||||---------
TIM ||
TOM ||||||||||||||||-----------
ANA ||---
BUR |
CHR ||-
D_V ||||||||||--------
ISO ----
SHA |||||
TCM |||||||||------
TOR ||-
He largely avoids interacting with Iso (although Iso does engage him a few times), and then does some interaction with GJ but not so much with Wildfire until he engages over the 3 killing roles. He largely coasts by from Day to Day until this point, at which point he leverages his breadcrumb from earlier on (coupled with WF's questionable play) and then latches onto my neutral role toDay and tries to paint me as scum. What of my play has specifically been scummy/questionable other than my lie about redirecting Wildfire Night 1 and my late claim? I've been working with the Town to further their win condition as best I could from early on, motivating D_V Night 2 and killing the lowest hanging fruit Day 4 to help out with POE.
EWP: He does actually engage a bunch during D3, but he still completely ignores GJ in this process, which I really don't like. Wildfire didn't toe the party line, so he becomes the better bus.
Day 1: Axelrod does basically nothing. He gives Manders early town points, and playfully walks it back quickly when asked by her about it. He then openly fixates on the empowerment thing, questions people giving Seppel empowerment and subtly slings mud at Sir Chris while also proclaiming him town. He spends a lot of the rest of the Day fixated on empowerment related to Seppel until he pivots to Sir Chris as scum. He doesn't have any of the flipped scum anywhere other than neutral here, saying that he doesn't like GJ and Iso because they're not as much of a presence, which could be a subtle coaching of both of them to get in the game. Wildfire isn't on here, but given that his predecessory had 0 activity, that makes sense.
Day 2: Starts by looking confused about Chris dying, which could go either way. He pushes on Wildfire a bit about Chris's death while also stating that Iso and myself look slightly better for empowering Chris D1. He's then largely absent for a while, showing up to post a list and then say that Wildfire's ability is "pretty overpowered for scum" - this feels relevant to me because suddenly two scum with killing roles isn't overpowered? He then ends up fencesitting pretty hard on GJ and then disappearing/posting apologies for the rest of D2.
Day 3: Goes back and finishes his assessment of the Bur wagon, saying that the worst are GJ, Anak and Seppel, but walks back the importance of his own analysis by saying its "just one data point". He then does a complete 180 on Wildfire after the quickdraw with D_V is announced, which could come from either alignment, but the unhappiness looks like it's more about Wildfire's choice. The "the fact that you did this on your own" reinforces that for me - he did something that goes against what Axelrod would have wanted to do. He does some assessment of the Iso lynch, which does look good. He mentions that he doesn't think that it's worth it for him to get empowerment until he can get to, then walks back and says he thinks he can do something with "just one more" which I take to mean hitting the threshold of 2. He casts some shade on Megs, then presses Manders about her 5-empower ability. He interacts with Seppel a bit to question his towniness while saying Anak and Wildfire likely aren't buddies, which does look good. He then apologizes for his absence again. Here he brings back up his 2 v 4 abilities, saying his 2 ability would clear him with a large drawback (the extra NK which he shares).
Vote Axelrod
I'll try to dig into this more, but will be working a PPTQ tomorrow, so it may be spotty until the evening. If you still want to lynch me first, I don't really know what to tell you.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
I do not actually think you have been "wracking your brains" to figure out who the last scum is.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
Axelrod's sticky read and refusal to answer a question with Anyang other than slime discrediting is concerning.
?
What question? And who discrediting? I haven't intentionally avoided answering anything this game. I have, however, checked out for long stretches due to life, and not done as much reviewing as I would have normally liked to do, which I've apologized for.
And seriously, Tammy, if you think there's a better plan here, propose it. You get how leaving Cyth. alive means (even if he IS Neutral) that he can just win with the scum tomorrow. Plus he has a potential re-direct and a potential day-kill? That's the definition of a wildcard. None of that is good in an endgame. And his claimed actions are just sketchy (why would he re-direct WF to himself that night - the night after WF said he was using an ability that might kill himself) like he claimed? He said because he thought that WF was using an ability that might give him some empower, but that really doesn't follow. Redirect is a very strong ability, you don't throw it away like that. Redirecting someone you don't know to yourself? Esp. if it costs 3 of his empower like he claimed. How much empower did he think he was going to get from WF? More than 3? WF said his ability only required 1 to use. It just doesn't make any sense. And then WF never said anything about being re-directed, and Cyth. never said anything about the ability he received from WF (which WF never claimed to have had) and didn't call out WF for being a liar? Come on.
I also just realized I think Meg. should give that 5 empower he's been sitting on away tonight, just to prove he didn't secretly give it to someone else.
I'm going to be out most of the day today, but I'll be back before the deadline.
Meg? Do you have an opinion on this?
i'll not publicly say who i'm giving it to.
I didn't claim it because I didn't want to claim my redirect ability that early on and opted to push on him in other ways later on instead. It's not like I completely ignored him. Night 1 aside, I've done my best to work with the town to further their win condition via providing analysis, motivating D_V (whose ability I didn't know for sure but was clearly Town and believed enough that his ability would provide value), and daykilled the top lynch D4 to help narrow down POE.
You can keep working on fearmongering that I'll win with the scum instead of the town, but I don't get how it isn't clear that I've been striving to do the exact opposite for basically the entire game.
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Anyway went over my main issues during a swim this morning, and
I still would like to figure out a way town and cythare can win.
I'm going to take the leap and trust Megiddo.
My manders read is still the same as the reads list I provided when I replaced in. My red flags here are that she's checked out of end game, wildfire shot dv instead of her despite proclaiming a strong scum read on her since replacing in, and ISO treated her in a similar fashion to the rest of his scum buddies.
Expecting dota to confirm himself so not considering this right now.
Problems with axel are he just hasn't done anything. Literally the way he claimed is the towniest thing about him. He claimed he shot cyan because he suspected him, in part because cyan suspected him, but he not once responded to my cyan suspicions, didn't vig me either I asked to be shot if I was in the Poe and now is using seppel lied as a reason to lynch me which is super shallow and I think he shot cyan instead of me because I would be easier to mislynch. His suspicion of cyan was partly because how he defended we but stil town reads manders even though she strongly defending ISO. Because she was happy at the beginning of the game. He just does not seem to be trying to figure out the game at all.
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If we trust that she is town, we could give me 1 empowerment and give her enough to get to 5 empowerment. I can then motivate her tonight so that she can use her -5 as a double-roleblock, which would be extremely risky for scum to shoot into if her "if the NK is blocked this way, the town wins". I'm happy to be one of the two targets if that's the best way to go about handling it.
This would let us lynch toDay and probably go into tomorrow with 5, unless the scum is super ballsy and isn't chosen, or Manders is lying and/or is scum. That doesn't really help sort out how to approach the lynch toDay, though.
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also lol come on now
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Cythare- Axelrod
Axelrod- Cythare
Official Empowerment Count:
Manders- Cythare
DOTA- Tammy, Axel
Axelrod- Megs
With 6 alive, 4 to lynch. Deadline set for 2/20, at 6 PM EST.
As a backup plan, I'm going to switch my empower in case Manders doesn't show in time.
Empower DoTArchon
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@Meg: I'm actually looking most slant-eyed at you, given you've actually been active and involved and this was like, your plan. What's up with that?
@everyone: I suppose I get how, if I am still a suspect in your minds (despite the inherent ridiculousness of that, on top of WF's role) you might not like this plan. I am not seeing another suggestion, however, aside from "No Lynching" which seems like a completely terrible idea.
What happens if we No Lynch? 6 go to night and then the scum can kill DOTA and I could kill ***someone*** but then tomorrow we are where? Four people alive, it's still lynch or lose, but how have our odds improved? Seems like we've got worse odds than the plan currently being proposed. Unless you are saying that my demonstrating another kill would make a difference to you. But, we'd still be in a precarious situation, and, in fact - even if Cyth. is telling the complete truth - he could basically guarantee himself a win by aligning with the scum in a 2-2. Frankly, I'd likely have to shoot him tonight just so that couldn't happen, but if he weren't last scum, we have worse odds.
Or you are suggesting that I not shoot anyone either, meaning 5 tomorrow. Which is not Lynch or lose, theoretically. But again, in that situation, how has anything changed at all from where we are right now, except we are a man down? We have lost the chance to put us in what seems like a potentially trivial endgame, not increased our odds of a correct lynch, and at the same time, greatly increased risk of shenanigans.
I'm missing where this helps us in any way.
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Haven't checked out. I was sick/busy.
Nope
What he said...
I think the best plan is a No Lynch. Empower me, then motivate so I block twice tonight. We're almost definitely at just 1 Scum left, so if I block that one from performing the NK, then we win the game. Of course, smart Scum would just NOT SHOOT tonight, but even still, that's a win scenario for us, too. If Meg decides to gift his 5 empowerment to me, I can use it tomorrow Night, too, and have 2 chances. Give Axel empowerment to shoot. DoTA can IC tomorrow Night.
Sorry I was gone. Let's do this.
Vote: No Lynch
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Also, Empower: Axel
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I'm agreeing it would be bad. Multiple scums with extra kills in a game this size would be bad. The main difference is that your role appears more conditional and also costs more empower. So it seems at least theoretically possible. And the other side of it is, as I've said multiple times, it almost doesn't even matter if you really are "neutral." It still just seems like the safest play.
What ability are you talking about using Manders? The one that removes someone's ability to kill permanently? This is not a "role-block" though, right? And it costs 5 empower which you do not currently have? How would you even get to 5 empower for tonight?
I am definitely missing something here.
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