So, I just re-read Wildfire in his entirety because I thought we might be losing track of the fact that there are independent reasons to lynch him completely aside from him unilaterally killing one of the most town-read players in the game.
He replaced in @320 with preliminary thoughts supposedly created without reading his role PM. I thought that was a scum-focused attitude to be replacing in with, though if it was true (the issue, of course) then the post would be NAL.
The Meta Argument: Goes like this. Sir Chris was gung-ho to lynch WF day 1. His top scum read, if you will. Sir Chris ate the bullet N1. Now, normally I would say just looking at who the dead person suspected isn't a reliable basis to suspect someone, but there's slightly more. WF is on record that he thinks Sir Chris is a super scum hunter, and scum are usually gunning for him early. Scum WF would be extremely afraid of Sir Chris for exactly this reason. It is very easy, if not likely to believe that he would want and would be arguing strongly to fellow scum-team members that they needed to take out Chris ASAP. Then, in his very first post of D2, he makes the most obvious WIFOM argument you could possibly make to deflect suspicion:
Quote from WF »
Do you really think that I, as scum, would take out someone who was that vocal in suspecting me?
Yes, WF, I totally do. If you were scum, and Chris was already onto you. Of course you would want him dead. Dead before he outed the entire scum-team and not just you. Do you actually disagree with this? You really saying that scum-you would have let Town-Chris-who-was-correctly-reading-you, alive? Because you would have been too afraid, as scum, to kill him for fear of validating his reads? Execpt you dismissed this very argument in your very first post like it wasn't even worth consideration.
Like, this is totally a Meta argument, I know this. But I do think it's got some teeth, and it's not the only thing against him.
His first "push" on Manders was kind of worthless. Attacking her for making a lot of contentless posts, actually citing "Manders-Busy" as the scum tell she supposedly is displaying, and then acknowledging that he's never played with her before so this whole thing is apparently based on what he's heard about how she posts?
Recognition of Seppel's lying. He seemed to glomm onto the fact that Seppel was lying very early on, yet also seemed disinclined to call him scum for it. His gut seemed to be telling him that Seppel was lying but still town. This is a position much easier to take when one is scum and already knows Seppel is not on your team.
He was very non-committal on Iso. His first (and practically only?) post about Iso:
Quote from WF »
Iso: I have the inkling of a tell on Iso, but I'm going to play it close to the chest because I don't want to influence it
Is easily the kind of thing you could say about a scumbuddy.
Then WF changed his vote to DV, and Manders actually had a good exchange with him where she calls him out for switching his vote and asking some other people questions, but not the person he has actually switched his vote to:
This is fine on the surface, but really...
why are you wasting time asking someone you already believe to be lying more info about passive abilities, but have NO questions for the guy you unvoted your TOP scumpick to vote for?
That's not the only issue with your list I saw, either, but it IS the one that makes me most comfortable with where my vote is.
WF response was just weak:
Quote from WF »
I have no questions for DV because I want to see how he reacts to the accusations before probing deeper.
Ugh. Do not like.
Additional thought about his use of ability D2. WF started the day voting for Tordeck. In hindsight, considering he ended up shooting Tordeck, this looks like it could be a cover-your-*** vote. So he could point to it later and say "see, I totally thought Tordeck was scum before I shot him..." Now, WF did express suspicions of Tordeck on D1, so this vote didn't come completely out of nowhere, but they were mostly suspicions based on Tordeck's lurking, which WF himself later acknowledged is something Tordeck also does when Town.
You would also think - at least this is how I would do it - that if you were planning to shoot someone (especially a DAY-VIG. where you actually have the opportunity to interrogate the person you are about to shoot), you would want to do as much as possible to try and suss out their alignment before shooting them. Like, by, I don't know, engaging them or something. Asking them questions. Trying to prod? Rather then just flying off on your gut. WF really didn't do much to try and determine Tordeck's alignment before firing. Incidentally, he also seemed remarkably pleased with himself after the shot, rather than (1) pissed he missed, (2) remorseful, or even (3) defensive, which is how I would have thought Town-WF would be feeling.
Strongly dislike the misdirection on Seppel. Said 2x he was "probably" shooting Seppel today. Then he voted for Manders. And then shot DV from nowhere. His rationalization for shooting DV was not good. Basically he asked DV who DV thought he should shoot, and when DV gave a list that didn't include the person DV was voting for GOODNIGHT.
Then he used some really bad logic to suggest that DV was actually scum-buddies with the person he was currently voting (GJ), was trying to protect him, and that WF was hoping to get a "twofer" by shooting DV. As if DV flipping scum would have conclusively incriminated the person DV was voting for.
He also said this which gave me the actual shivers in as much as I just speculated it myself for how Tom could still be scum this game:
Quote from WF »
Maybe scum even neglected to kill in some kind of long-con gambit.
Yikes. Like, if WF does flip scum, we might have to consider this as an actual possibility.
He also lied? Maybe? Because on D1 he claimed:
I have a one-empower active as well as a way to give someone else empowerment, so your assumptions seem *really* bad.
But today when asked what all his abilities were he said:
Quote from WF »
My abilities are the Quick Draw and Sudden Death, which was a one-shot ability that took my last remaining empowerment.
Like, I guess technically the Sudden Death thing which brought Megs into the game also gave Megs 5 empowerment, but that's kind of a misleading way of phrasing his ability. Not unlike the misleading way he phrased his request on D1 when trying to get someone to give him an Empowerment.
Ultimately, I make the call on behavior, and WF hasn't done anything Townie this game.
And he shot the Doc.
I don't know what the vote count is, so I'm not voting. But I'm reiterating that this is where my vote is going to go.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The thing that gets me is that WF, GJ, AND Axelrod are refusing to cooperate.
Because they think I'm scum or something.
Despite Cythare coming up with the plan.
Despite the plan being a good plan.
Despite my attempt to save DV's life.
Ridiculous.
Well, you'll have to forgive me for thinking it was your plan given how much you've been pushing it and posting it.
I have no idea if it's a good plan or not. I would be basically taking it on faith. You get that, right? This is where my own lack of info is hindering me.
Despite the fact that they want to conceal their one-way chats.
I'm not concealing nothing. I have not done a 1-way chat with anyone yet.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The thing that gets me is that WF, GJ, AND Axelrod are refusing to cooperate.
Because they think I'm scum or something.
Despite Cythare coming up with the plan.
Despite the plan being a good plan.
Despite my attempt to save DV's life.
Ridiculous.
Well, you'll have to forgive me for thinking it was your plan given how much you've been pushing it and posting it.
I have no idea if it's a good plan or not. I would be basically taking it on faith. You get that, right? This is where my own lack of info is hindering me.
Despite the fact that they want to conceal their one-way chats.
I'm not concealing nothing. I have not done a 1-way chat with anyone yet.
YOU CAN COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL OF THAT BY CONNECTING TO CYTHARE AND CLAIMING TO HIM
AND YET YOURE BEING 100% DESPERATE AND DEFLECTING AWAY FROM ANYTHING THAT WOULD REMOTELY HELP THE TOWN AND YOURSELF IF YOU WERE TOWN
WAAAAH SEPPEL IS MORE VOCAL ABOUT CYTHARE'S PLAN THAN CYTHARE IS AND THAT MAKES ME HATE IT I'M A WHINY LITTLE BABY WHO CANT DO ANYTHING RIGHT SO I'LL DO MY BEST TO BE AS OBTRUSIVE AS POSSIBLE FOR ZERO REASON ZERO LOGIC ZERO COHERENCE
LOOK AT ME IM AXELROD AND I CAN DO ANYTHING I WANT BECAUSE IM SCUM ILL JUST KEEP REPEATING MY MINDLESS BLATHER OVER AND OVER SINCE ITS THE ONLY WAY ILL SAVE MYSELF I HAVE NO MENTAL RECOURSE FOR ANY ACTIONS I TAKE IN A GAME OF MAFIA ILL JUST PLUG MY EARS AND GO LA LA LA AND EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE IM SAFE HERE WITH YOU MOMMY WHERE THE GOOD GUYS CANT HURT ME OOPS DID I SAY GOOD GUYS I MEANT BAD GUYS YEAH THATS RIGHT THE BAD GUYS ARE BULLYING ME DONT YOU SEE THEY NEED TO BE STOPPED IT LOOKS LIKE THEYRE DOING GOOD BUT ITS ACTUSLLY BAD WHAT???? NO I DONT HAVE ANY EVIDENCE I HAVE GOD ON MY SIDE AND WITH THAT I WILL PREVAIL AGAINST THE HATERS PRAISE THE LORD
I'M ALSO GOING TO IGNORE ANY REQUESTS TO PROPOSE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN AND INSTEAD JUST MAINTAIN MY ZERO EFFORT GAME OF READING WILDFIRE FOR NO GOOD REASON BECAUSE IF I DO TRY TO PROPOSE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN THEN ILL SURELY BE OUTED AS SCUM FOR SUCH A SUBOPTIMAL SUGGESTION
I have resisted the urge to make a snappy comeback, for which everyone should be extremely grateful.
Seppel just needs to stop talking to me.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Alright, enough. I've been inspired to institute a new sportsmanship system. Here's how it works.
If you post something that in my judgment detracts from others' enjoyment of the game, is flamey, angsty, generally annoying, or overly combative, you get a strike. Don't much care whether it's genuine, justified or unjustified, or simply feigned, if it detracts from the game. Three strikes, and you're modkilled. I reserve the right to tally multiple strikes for the same post, or for a series of posts, so it's entirely possible you can wind up dead without any further warning if you're on a nice streak.
Seppel, watch it. You are not entitled to call anyone in this game a "whiny little baby". GJ and MH, you had some moments earlier, but keep on keeping it clean.
I really don't want to rely on a scumread that's potentially going to be lynched not unempowering me at the last second. Seppel can fall back on his 0 if need be, which is why he looks like the best person to be empowered by Wf/GJ.
I feel like we're mostly in a holding pattern while we keep waiting on zomgarcwind. It's been just shy of 3 days since his last post. :/
Who is actually in support of this plan? I need a headcount.
I'm in support of coordinating empowerment.
Specifically the distribution Seppel is suggesting? Which has him receiving 2, presumably so he can achieve his ultimate-really-good-but-super-secret ability.
I understand that some people know what this supposedly is? But I would be taking it on faith and I currently have very little faith in Seppel due to his being a lying-liarpants, hence my problem.
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
If you were paying attention you'd know how I can achieve my ultimate which you're scared about me achieving yet you DONT BELIEVE MY ABILITY ANYWAY SO WHAT DO YOU CARE plus I can only take one action each night PLUS I'm actually considering dumping my points to Manders or Cyan. But I know I need to prove my ability so moving ZOMG's Miller status to Cythare seems the safest option.
Proving your ability won't change anything, I don't think. Your ability is as NAI as they come.
I don't see how anyone could think you and Iso were Scum together, though. I mean, I SUPPOSE it's possible you guys were faking all the ire and frustration (that's mostly on Iso's part), but it all seemed very genuine to me.
I just don't see you two as Scum together this game.
So, I just re-read Wildfire in his entirety because I thought we might be losing track of the fact that there are independent reasons to lynch him completely aside from him unilaterally killing one of the most town-read players in the game.
He replaced in @320 with preliminary thoughts supposedly created without reading his role PM. I thought that was a scum-focused attitude to be replacing in with, though if it was true (the issue, of course) then the post would be NAL.
The Meta Argument: Goes like this. Sir Chris was gung-ho to lynch WF day 1. His top scum read, if you will. Sir Chris ate the bullet N1. Now, normally I would say just looking at who the dead person suspected isn't a reliable basis to suspect someone, but there's slightly more. WF is on record that he thinks Sir Chris is a super scum hunter, and scum are usually gunning for him early. Scum WF would be extremely afraid of Sir Chris for exactly this reason. It is very easy, if not likely to believe that he would want and would be arguing strongly to fellow scum-team members that they needed to take out Chris ASAP. Then, in his very first post of D2, he makes the most obvious WIFOM argument you could possibly make to deflect suspicion:
Quote from WF »
Do you really think that I, as scum, would take out someone who was that vocal in suspecting me?
Yes, WF, I totally do. If you were scum, and Chris was already onto you. Of course you would want him dead. Dead before he outed the entire scum-team and not just you. Do you actually disagree with this? You really saying that scum-you would have let Town-Chris-who-was-correctly-reading-you, alive? Because you would have been too afraid, as scum, to kill him for fear of validating his reads? Execpt you dismissed this very argument in your very first post like it wasn't even worth consideration.
Like, this is totally a Meta argument, I know this. But I do think it's got some teeth, and it's not the only thing against him.
His first "push" on Manders was kind of worthless. Attacking her for making a lot of contentless posts, actually citing "Manders-Busy" as the scum tell she supposedly is displaying, and then acknowledging that he's never played with her before so this whole thing is apparently based on what he's heard about how she posts?
Recognition of Seppel's lying. He seemed to glomm onto the fact that Seppel was lying very early on, yet also seemed disinclined to call him scum for it. His gut seemed to be telling him that Seppel was lying but still town. This is a position much easier to take when one is scum and already knows Seppel is not on your team.
He was very non-committal on Iso. His first (and practically only?) post about Iso:
Quote from WF »
Iso: I have the inkling of a tell on Iso, but I'm going to play it close to the chest because I don't want to influence it
Is easily the kind of thing you could say about a scumbuddy.
Then WF changed his vote to DV, and Manders actually had a good exchange with him where she calls him out for switching his vote and asking some other people questions, but not the person he has actually switched his vote to:
This is fine on the surface, but really...
why are you wasting time asking someone you already believe to be lying more info about passive abilities, but have NO questions for the guy you unvoted your TOP scumpick to vote for?
That's not the only issue with your list I saw, either, but it IS the one that makes me most comfortable with where my vote is.
WF response was just weak:
Quote from WF »
I have no questions for DV because I want to see how he reacts to the accusations before probing deeper.
Ugh. Do not like.
Additional thought about his use of ability D2. WF started the day voting for Tordeck. In hindsight, considering he ended up shooting Tordeck, this looks like it could be a cover-your-*** vote. So he could point to it later and say "see, I totally thought Tordeck was scum before I shot him..." Now, WF did express suspicions of Tordeck on D1, so this vote didn't come completely out of nowhere, but they were mostly suspicions based on Tordeck's lurking, which WF himself later acknowledged is something Tordeck also does when Town.
You would also think - at least this is how I would do it - that if you were planning to shoot someone (especially a DAY-VIG. where you actually have the opportunity to interrogate the person you are about to shoot), you would want to do as much as possible to try and suss out their alignment before shooting them. Like, by, I don't know, engaging them or something. Asking them questions. Trying to prod? Rather then just flying off on your gut. WF really didn't do much to try and determine Tordeck's alignment before firing. Incidentally, he also seemed remarkably pleased with himself after the shot, rather than (1) pissed he missed, (2) remorseful, or even (3) defensive, which is how I would have thought Town-WF would be feeling.
Strongly dislike the misdirection on Seppel. Said 2x he was "probably" shooting Seppel today. Then he voted for Manders. And then shot DV from nowhere. His rationalization for shooting DV was not good. Basically he asked DV who DV thought he should shoot, and when DV gave a list that didn't include the person DV was voting for GOODNIGHT.
Then he used some really bad logic to suggest that DV was actually scum-buddies with the person he was currently voting (GJ), was trying to protect him, and that WF was hoping to get a "twofer" by shooting DV. As if DV flipping scum would have conclusively incriminated the person DV was voting for.
He also said this which gave me the actual shivers in as much as I just speculated it myself for how Tom could still be scum this game:
Quote from WF »
Maybe scum even neglected to kill in some kind of long-con gambit.
Yikes. Like, if WF does flip scum, we might have to consider this as an actual possibility.
He also lied? Maybe? Because on D1 he claimed:
I have a one-empower active as well as a way to give someone else empowerment, so your assumptions seem *really* bad.
But today when asked what all his abilities were he said:
Quote from WF »
My abilities are the Quick Draw and Sudden Death, which was a one-shot ability that took my last remaining empowerment.
Like, I guess technically the Sudden Death thing which brought Megs into the game also gave Megs 5 empowerment, but that's kind of a misleading way of phrasing his ability. Not unlike the misleading way he phrased his request on D1 when trying to get someone to give him an Empowerment.
Ultimately, I make the call on behavior, and WF hasn't done anything Townie this game.
And he shot the Doc.
I don't know what the vote count is, so I'm not voting. But I'm reiterating that this is where my vote is going to go.
This is a really good post.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
You know what, no I can't say that with good conscious.
Seppel, you were an awesome person. Actually, the only surprise was that you looked younger than the what my mind perceived you to be based on mafia. I don't know why I expected older, but I did.
Alright, enough. I've been inspired to institute a new sportsmanship system. Here's how it works.
If you post something that in my judgment detracts from others' enjoyment of the game, is flamey, angsty, generally annoying, or overly combative, you get a strike. Don't much care whether it's genuine, justified or unjustified, or simply feigned, if it detracts from the game. Three strikes, and you're modkilled. I reserve the right to tally multiple strikes for the same post, or for a series of posts, so it's entirely possible you can wind up dead without any further warning if you're on a nice streak.
Seppel, watch it. You are not entitled to call anyone in this game a "whiny little baby". GJ and MH, you had some moments earlier, but keep on keeping it clean.
Sorry you had to do this, Az.
OOG: Make sure you let me know how the pulled pork is whenever the wifey makes it.
@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
I may be having trouble parsing my feelings on that one. I don't read him as Town. I don't trust him to the point where I would follow anything he might propose we do. But he's also got some things that point away from being Mafia. So, atm I'm ignoring him.
This is a really good post.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
I haven't got a fully formed opinion on GJ right now, but I don't see where he couldn't be scum with WF on the surface. Just because he's pushing WF now? At risk of feeding the Seppel, I'll point out that If WF is scum he decided to throw himself on the fire today and it's easily possible that his scum-buddies would just be piling on.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
With 16 people, 17 counting the one added from the spec forum, you think we only have 3 Mafia?
The spec. forum thing is tricky because I would have said 4 in a 16 player game was likely at the start, and 5 would be too many. Starting with 3 and having the possibility of getting a 4th from the spec forum seems too low though.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I mean I'd like to get 4 for a double shot, but I recognize that everyone has abilities to use, so I'm good with the plan.
I'm also waffling about GJ and Wildfire, my brain says one way, my gut says another.
I think we all need a few days off from the game. As much as I'd like ZOMG to catch up and post, it's pretty unlikely he's Scum, so let's get our empowerments set and end the Day.
My votes are where they should be. Everyone should put theirs where they want them to be asap.
PLEASE BE CONSCIOUS OF THE VC BEFORE VOTING. We need everyone voting to empower someone before the Day ends.
@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
Why not? It's called bussing.
Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch.
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
I may be having trouble parsing my feelings on that one. I don't read him as Town. I don't trust him to the point where I would follow anything he might propose we do. But he's also got some things that point away from being Mafia. So, atm I'm ignoring him.
Not good enough. If you HAD to choose one or the other RIGHT NOW, which would it be and why?
This is a really good post.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
I haven't got a fully formed opinion on GJ right now, but I don't see where he couldn't be scum with WF on the surface. Just because he's pushing WF now? At risk of feeding the Seppel, I'll point out that If WF is scum he decided to throw himself on the fire today and it's easily possible that his scum-buddies would just be piling on.
This is possible, but it doesn't feel right. Yes, I mean feel. It's gut.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
With 16 people, 17 counting the one added from the spec forum, you think we only have 3 Mafia?
The spec. forum thing is tricky because I would have said 4 in a 16 player game was likely at the start, and 5 would be too many. Starting with 3 and having the possibility of getting a 4th from the spec forum seems too low though.
Yes, because of the Spec Forum, I think there's only 3. I feel like Az was banking on Scum in the Spec forum being active and waiting for their chance to join the game, so he didn't over-compensate in the regular thread.
I could be wrong, and if I am, we'll evaluate at that time.
How is that bussing? I'm stating GJ and WF are not scum together, and voting WF. This would imply that I think GJ is town. You think GJ and I are scum and WF is town, so where is the bussing happening here?
Setting up a mislynch is pretty much the opposite of bussing, so explain your rationale to me.
@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
Why not? It's called bussing.
Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch.
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
I may be having trouble parsing my feelings on that one. I don't read him as Town. I don't trust him to the point where I would follow anything he might propose we do. But he's also got some things that point away from being Mafia. So, atm I'm ignoring him.
Not good enough. If you HAD to choose one or the other RIGHT NOW, which would it be and why?
This is a really good post.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
I haven't got a fully formed opinion on GJ right now, but I don't see where he couldn't be scum with WF on the surface. Just because he's pushing WF now? At risk of feeding the Seppel, I'll point out that If WF is scum he decided to throw himself on the fire today and it's easily possible that his scum-buddies would just be piling on.
This is possible, but it doesn't feel right. Yes, I mean feel. It's gut.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
With 16 people, 17 counting the one added from the spec forum, you think we only have 3 Mafia?
The spec. forum thing is tricky because I would have said 4 in a 16 player game was likely at the start, and 5 would be too many. Starting with 3 and having the possibility of getting a 4th from the spec forum seems too low though.
Yes, because of the Spec Forum, I think there's only 3. I feel like Az was banking on Scum in the Spec forum being active and waiting for their chance to join the game, so he didn't over-compensate in the regular thread.
I could be wrong, and if I am, we'll evaluate at that time.
Because I thought you were voting GJ. Should have just taken it out, it seems.
So now you are just lying? You contradict yourself in your last two posts, as you clearly knew I wasn't voting him and accuse me of trying to set up a mislynch.
How is that bussing? I'm stating GJ and WF are not scum together, and voting WF. This would imply that I think GJ is town. You think GJ and I are scum and WF is town, so where is the bussing happening here?
Setting up a mislynch is pretty much the opposite of bussing, so explain your rationale to me.
@Cyth Sure works for me Empower Cyan
So when I flip town your plan is to go after GJ then?
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@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
Why not? It's called bussing.
Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch.
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
I may be having trouble parsing my feelings on that one. I don't read him as Town. I don't trust him to the point where I would follow anything he might propose we do. But he's also got some things that point away from being Mafia. So, atm I'm ignoring him.
Not good enough. If you HAD to choose one or the other RIGHT NOW, which would it be and why?
This is a really good post.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
I haven't got a fully formed opinion on GJ right now, but I don't see where he couldn't be scum with WF on the surface. Just because he's pushing WF now? At risk of feeding the Seppel, I'll point out that If WF is scum he decided to throw himself on the fire today and it's easily possible that his scum-buddies would just be piling on.
This is possible, but it doesn't feel right. Yes, I mean feel. It's gut.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
With 16 people, 17 counting the one added from the spec forum, you think we only have 3 Mafia?
The spec. forum thing is tricky because I would have said 4 in a 16 player game was likely at the start, and 5 would be too many. Starting with 3 and having the possibility of getting a 4th from the spec forum seems too low though.
Yes, because of the Spec Forum, I think there's only 3. I feel like Az was banking on Scum in the Spec forum being active and waiting for their chance to join the game, so he didn't over-compensate in the regular thread.
I could be wrong, and if I am, we'll evaluate at that time.
Because I thought you were voting GJ. Should have just taken it out, it seems.
So now you are just lying? You contradict yourself in your last two posts, as you clearly knew I wasn't voting him and accuse me of trying to set up a mislynch.
Vote Manders
Are you serious with this?
When I said "Why not? It's called bussing." I thought you were voting GJ.
I then looked back, saw you were NOT voting GJ, and said, "Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch."
@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
Why not? It's called bussing.
Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch.
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
I may be having trouble parsing my feelings on that one. I don't read him as Town. I don't trust him to the point where I would follow anything he might propose we do. But he's also got some things that point away from being Mafia. So, atm I'm ignoring him.
Not good enough. If you HAD to choose one or the other RIGHT NOW, which would it be and why?
This is a really good post.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
I haven't got a fully formed opinion on GJ right now, but I don't see where he couldn't be scum with WF on the surface. Just because he's pushing WF now? At risk of feeding the Seppel, I'll point out that If WF is scum he decided to throw himself on the fire today and it's easily possible that his scum-buddies would just be piling on.
This is possible, but it doesn't feel right. Yes, I mean feel. It's gut.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
With 16 people, 17 counting the one added from the spec forum, you think we only have 3 Mafia?
The spec. forum thing is tricky because I would have said 4 in a 16 player game was likely at the start, and 5 would be too many. Starting with 3 and having the possibility of getting a 4th from the spec forum seems too low though.
Yes, because of the Spec Forum, I think there's only 3. I feel like Az was banking on Scum in the Spec forum being active and waiting for their chance to join the game, so he didn't over-compensate in the regular thread.
I could be wrong, and if I am, we'll evaluate at that time.
Because I thought you were voting GJ. Should have just taken it out, it seems.
So now you are just lying? You contradict yourself in your last two posts, as you clearly knew I wasn't voting him and accuse me of trying to set up a mislynch.
Vote Manders
I lol'ed.
This vote is hilariously opportunistic. But I'm sure you'll 'come to your senses' any minute now and move your vote back to WF. You know, another probable townie.
Just gotta squeeze out that one extra mislynch before you bus GJ, eh?
Hilarious and sad at the same time. I KNEW he'd come back with, "LIAR! SCUM!"
If you knew that I would come back with that, then you are agreeing that you contradicted yourself? I'm sure your post read naturally to you, as you were the one who wrote it, so why would you expect me to call you a liar for it?
How is that bussing? I'm stating GJ and WF are not scum together, and voting WF. This would imply that I think GJ is town. You think GJ and I are scum and WF is town, so where is the bussing happening here?
Setting up a mislynch is pretty much the opposite of bussing, so explain your rationale to me.
@Cyth Sure works for me Empower Cyan
So when I flip town your plan is to go after GJ then?
Yes, if you died and flipped town then I would go after GJ.
This vote is hilariously opportunistic. But I'm sure you'll 'come to your senses' any minute now and move your vote back to WF. You know, another probable townie.
Just gotta squeeze out that one extra mislynch before you bus GJ, eh?
wait, how is being the first vote on someone ever opportunistic?
from your pov he moved from a townie that might get lynched today to a townie that definitely will not be
whats the scum motivation for that?
Can we just go ahead and get another replacement for zomg? He replaced in a week ago, and has posted twice since. Neither post had ANY content in it.
Meanwhile, we're all sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for content from him.
Relatedly, I'm willing to lynch the following people today: Axel, GJ, Anak. The only way I'm ever voting anyone else is if they literally claim scum and mean it. Can we please just do something here? This is ridiculous.
Now for the actual post I was working on. I spent the morning going through and doing interaction analysis with Iso, based on how I think Prophylaxis does it?
Based on this alone, I'm fairly confident that zomg, tom, and Seppel are not scum with Iso. The clear weak points with this are myself, Wildfire, and Axelrod, with Anak and Cyan closeish behind. It's maybe worth noting that most of the interaction for myself, Cyan, and Anak came late in Iso's wagon on D2. I removed Megiddo from the list because he was in Spec Chat the whole time that Iso was alive, and I didn't know how to weigh his posts.
I think this is convincing me that we should go with Wildfire again for now.
not that i trust you at all
but manders using my empowerment to let you try your luck against me tomorrow would be pretty hilarious
anyone empowering wildfire has to at least consider the possibility scumwildfire with his weird reads just mowing down lurker town.
especially if iso flips scum with the hard defending.
you dont bus a buddy that theoretically doubles your teams kill power.
i think proph nailed it
I had forgotten about this and this is a large part of what's convincing me to circle back around to Wildfire.
@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
Insightful question tbh though i need to reread the full exchange when i'm less... like this.
I'm glad you started trying harder after i called you out about it though.
@seppel why is acelrod connexting with bongo and not me?
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I didn't realize that was a part of it, since I've only ever done it once, where I left them out because I didn't know then either and no one corrected me. I'll go back and do that.
Hilarious and sad at the same time. I KNEW he'd come back with, "LIAR! SCUM!"
If you knew that I would come back with that, then you are agreeing that you contradicted yourself? I'm sure your post read naturally to you, as you were the one who wrote it, so why would you expect me to call you a liar for it?
First of all, don't EVER accuse me of not understanding something again. After this, you have NO RIGHT calling anyone out for that (especially when it isn't true) if you seriously are not understanding this.
Yes, I contradicted myself, hence why I said "Should have just taken it out, it seems." So what? I have already explained WHY I contradicted myself.
This vote is hilariously opportunistic. But I'm sure you'll 'come to your senses' any minute now and move your vote back to WF. You know, another probable townie.
Just gotta squeeze out that one extra mislynch before you bus GJ, eh?
wait, how is being the first vote on someone ever opportunistic?
When it's so blatantly desperate as this one. Anak is desperate to get the attention away from GJ in any way possible. It was obvious what I meant when I said it in the first place.
Can we just go ahead and get another replacement for zomg? He replaced in a week ago, and has posted twice since. Neither post had ANY content in it.
Meanwhile, we're all sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for content from him.
Relatedly, I'm willing to lynch the following people today: Axel, GJ, Anak. The only way I'm ever voting anyone else is if they literally claim scum and mean it. Can we please just do something here? This is ridiculous.
We're working on it. If people would stop posting without empowering, we could proceed.
@Manders If I am scum to you, why are you listening to my evidence that GJ and WF are not scum together? Especially because you think GJ is my scumbuddy
Insightful question tbh though i need to reread the full exchange when i'm less... like this.
I'm glad you started trying harder after i called you out about it though.
Insightful how?
Since when can players not agree with someone they think is Scum?
So this is the updated thing with the dead town controls. I included all of them for reference, since they were kind of all over the place, but D_V is likely the best control player. D_V interacted with Iso a lot, while all three other dead townies barely did, but none were alive during Iso's wagon, and Iso spent much of D1 in "catchup mode", which limited his interactions during that time.
Bur
Sir Chris |----
Tordeck ||
DV ||||||||||||----
I kinda regret taking on this project without first figuring out all of the pieces to it. I also realized in retrospect that I didn't really downgrade or upgrade interactions based on if they were actually meaningful, which is terrible. This is most notable with Gentleman Johnny, who has a lot of direct interactions, but many of them are actually meaningless.
ZOMG/TIM is clearly town. All of TIM's interactions are direct, clear, and critical. 997, 1200, and 1285 (where he goes into the post reviewing Anak and comes out voting Iso) are all great examples of this. He only has one passing mention, and that's when he states that he'll need to review Iso's most recent post later. He doesn't, but given the other interactions, I don't think that's a strike against him.
tomsloger also comes off as town. Partially because of the sheer number of interactions, but also that a lot of them were pushing back in what felt like a pretty townie way. 1497 is a bit later on in the Iso wagon, but tom called Iso out on his big catchup post, Iso responded with a crappy answer, and tom followed up by calling him out again. This came across as pretty organic to me. His hesitancy about surrounding scum (such as in 1330) also strikes me as town critically thinking about the gamestate rather than scum trying to find potential marks.
Seppel and Iso railed at each other so much that I just don't see them being buddies.
shadowlancerx's interactions are fine - he doesn't engage much Day 1, but most people don't. His handful of strong interactions come across as town-critical and don't read like bussing to me.
I have to review Manders - she has a lot of interactions which seems fine on a surface level, but they're softer than others' were. This warrants more review.
This leaves Cyan, Axelrod, Anak, Wildfire, GJ, and myself.
Wildfire's only direct interaction with Iso is when Iso makes his first catchup post in 919. When Wildfire isn't on it, he responds with this:
There's a follow-up where Iso clarifies that his post was only through post #300, to which Wildfire says "Oh. Right." Other than that, Wildfire largely avoids interaction with Iso. He mentions him in his first big post after reading up saying he "has an inkling of a read" but chooses not to share it. Iso's the only player he avoids providing a read on. His other passive mentions include a soft jab at the size and quality of Iso's scumteam and damage control for himself by saying that maybe Iso's trying to tie him to Iso's wagon so he can be mislynched. While I didn't actually include D3 mentions, Wildfire follows up on this on D3 by saying he "doesn't know what Iso's motivations were". His post here where he's asked by shadow about how he feels about who's empowering is pretty basic. He leads with saying "but Tom did it too", qualifies his GJ scumread (which also kinda materialized, then disappeared again after D_V's flip), then says "I don't know what Iso's motivations were".
Cyan I'm a bit confused about. His initial vote is because of TIM's post where he ended up voting, which is NAI to me. The locking onto his claim is something I'm a bit wary of, given that roles might be randomized. If we don't know whether or not this is the case, using a role as additional fodder seems unnecessary. Pointing out Iso's weird worldview post here looks decent to me, but then a lot of his other interactions largely come across as dismissive of Iso and reiterating that he's scum. This could be because town!Cyan is just so sure that scum's been found that he doesn't want to listen to Iso any more? Dunno.
Anak has this really awkward post here where it looks like he's trying to claim credit for doing something right while voting Iso. It looks terrible, but that's separate of the interaction itself. His other direct interactions aren't very valuable - he asks Iso why he keeps making big posts if it's hard to glean info from them, but that's his next post after saying that Iso's doing so comes across as townie. He later says that we should consider his vote on Iso (I marked this as direct, for some reason, despite having no other Iso-related content), and then finally calling Iso out for Iso trying to dismiss everyone's cases (and backing up that it's based on POE from one wagon analysis).
Axelrod has two direct interactions - one is for calling Iso out on just catching up instead of participating in the moment, and the other one is really early on when Iso tries to engage Axelrod by asking him a bunch of gamestate-related questions, but they're all softballs. Axelrod otherwise mentions Iso a few times, but not really about anything specific. He twicementions him as a non-entity and says this is troubling the second time, then says that Iso empowering Sir Chris might look good but might not if scum were planning to NK Chris anyways, moves Iso from neutral to leaning scum in his list (the next time he's mentioned) without any context, and then that's it before the Iso lynch. There is also this post towards the end of Day 2 where Axelrod prods at Anak, which stood out to me as maybe a test of the waters, but he never really follows up on it.
GJ has a lot of interactions, but I noted direct things as direct without actually reviewing how meaningful they were. This next stuff was going to just be the ones I marked as direct but it became something else so keep that in mind. These are all the interactions that I think are meaningless or interactions that just look bad, and there are a lot of them. He has 44 which is just a response to a rules thing, 297 where he clarifies that he swapped Iso and Seppel, this light dig here which looks kinda like coaching, this post which includes a question that feels a lot like a softball about Iso's proposed team for someone that GJ has now mentioned he's leaning scum - there's no pressure indicated here. He then walks back to a null read on Iso in 992 saying Iso "could be the veteran wolf" but he gets the "solve the game feeling" from him, moves him up to slight town in his list, then abruptly scumreads him for the "pfffft" comment (granted, I wouldn't blame a town!GJ for this one), subtly tries to move back towards Wildfire/Anak a couple posts later. He tries to suggest lynching one of Iso/Seppel soon after, when Iso's already the major wagon, then hammers Iso saying he's the last person to use meta, but that he's using meta.
While I skipped Manders, I think that's fine for now based on everyone else.
I feel like there's more I should be digging into here, but I'm tired of reviewing this.
I have to review Manders - she has a lot of interactions which seems fine on a surface level, but they're softer than others' were. This warrants more review.
For the record, I did think he was Town and was very wrong. I'm, admittedly, kind of biased when it comes to Iso. He's a good friend.
Most everyone else in the game knows this, but I don't know if you do.
I have to review Manders - she has a lot of interactions which seems fine on a surface level, but they're softer than others' were. This warrants more review.
For the record, I did think he was Town and was very wrong. I'm, admittedly, kind of biased when it comes to Iso. He's a good friend.
Most everyone else in the game knows this, but I don't know if you do.
I kinda gathered that from earlier on, but I didn't actually know it for sure.
I have to review Manders - she has a lot of interactions which seems fine on a surface level, but they're softer than others' were. This warrants more review.
For the record, I did think he was Town and was very wrong. I'm, admittedly, kind of biased when it comes to Iso. He's a good friend.
Most everyone else in the game knows this, but I don't know if you do.
I kinda gathered that from earlier on, but I didn't actually know it for sure.
In my defense, I'd never been in a game where he was Scum before, I don't think.
Of course, I'd never been in a game where he had SO MUCH TROUBLE keeping up before, either. In hindsight...that really should have been a HUGE red flag.
Okay well, in as much as anyone is waiting specifically for this:
Unempower: Manders
Empower: Cythare
I feel a little better about this now. Though I've never really felt that Proph-style # of interactions analysis where you're just counting hits and not really looking more at what people are actually saying was particularly helpful. What Cyth. just did was more that that though, so that's good.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Seppel has been suspended by the mod staff for three weeks due to having three active infractions, and replaced by Tammy, effective immediately. If someone steps up to replace ZOMG before he becomes active, we'll replace that slot as well.
So, while reading my role pm, I got a little pop up that I needed to update my adobe flash...and I did. Only I'm the dumbest person on earth because it was a virus, so getting rid of that ate into some of the time I had to read today, but on the plus side I now have adblocker!
I doubt I'll get the whole game read tonight, but I should have it done by the end of the weekend. Hopefully tomorrow depending on how dense it is. I'm not a big quote striper, so I'll probably just give you my thoughts in chunks as I go along.
Oh I'm your new seppel
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He replaced in @320 with preliminary thoughts supposedly created without reading his role PM. I thought that was a scum-focused attitude to be replacing in with, though if it was true (the issue, of course) then the post would be NAL.
The Meta Argument: Goes like this. Sir Chris was gung-ho to lynch WF day 1. His top scum read, if you will. Sir Chris ate the bullet N1. Now, normally I would say just looking at who the dead person suspected isn't a reliable basis to suspect someone, but there's slightly more. WF is on record that he thinks Sir Chris is a super scum hunter, and scum are usually gunning for him early. Scum WF would be extremely afraid of Sir Chris for exactly this reason. It is very easy, if not likely to believe that he would want and would be arguing strongly to fellow scum-team members that they needed to take out Chris ASAP. Then, in his very first post of D2, he makes the most obvious WIFOM argument you could possibly make to deflect suspicion:
Yes, WF, I totally do. If you were scum, and Chris was already onto you. Of course you would want him dead. Dead before he outed the entire scum-team and not just you. Do you actually disagree with this? You really saying that scum-you would have let Town-Chris-who-was-correctly-reading-you, alive? Because you would have been too afraid, as scum, to kill him for fear of validating his reads? Execpt you dismissed this very argument in your very first post like it wasn't even worth consideration.
Like, this is totally a Meta argument, I know this. But I do think it's got some teeth, and it's not the only thing against him.
His first "push" on Manders was kind of worthless. Attacking her for making a lot of contentless posts, actually citing "Manders-Busy" as the scum tell she supposedly is displaying, and then acknowledging that he's never played with her before so this whole thing is apparently based on what he's heard about how she posts?
Recognition of Seppel's lying. He seemed to glomm onto the fact that Seppel was lying very early on, yet also seemed disinclined to call him scum for it. His gut seemed to be telling him that Seppel was lying but still town. This is a position much easier to take when one is scum and already knows Seppel is not on your team.
He was very non-committal on Iso. His first (and practically only?) post about Iso: Is easily the kind of thing you could say about a scumbuddy.
Then WF changed his vote to DV, and Manders actually had a good exchange with him where she calls him out for switching his vote and asking some other people questions, but not the person he has actually switched his vote to:
WF response was just weak:
Ugh. Do not like.
Additional thought about his use of ability D2. WF started the day voting for Tordeck. In hindsight, considering he ended up shooting Tordeck, this looks like it could be a cover-your-*** vote. So he could point to it later and say "see, I totally thought Tordeck was scum before I shot him..." Now, WF did express suspicions of Tordeck on D1, so this vote didn't come completely out of nowhere, but they were mostly suspicions based on Tordeck's lurking, which WF himself later acknowledged is something Tordeck also does when Town.
You would also think - at least this is how I would do it - that if you were planning to shoot someone (especially a DAY-VIG. where you actually have the opportunity to interrogate the person you are about to shoot), you would want to do as much as possible to try and suss out their alignment before shooting them. Like, by, I don't know, engaging them or something. Asking them questions. Trying to prod? Rather then just flying off on your gut. WF really didn't do much to try and determine Tordeck's alignment before firing. Incidentally, he also seemed remarkably pleased with himself after the shot, rather than (1) pissed he missed, (2) remorseful, or even (3) defensive, which is how I would have thought Town-WF would be feeling.
Strongly dislike the misdirection on Seppel. Said 2x he was "probably" shooting Seppel today. Then he voted for Manders. And then shot DV from nowhere. His rationalization for shooting DV was not good. Basically he asked DV who DV thought he should shoot, and when DV gave a list that didn't include the person DV was voting for GOODNIGHT.
Then he used some really bad logic to suggest that DV was actually scum-buddies with the person he was currently voting (GJ), was trying to protect him, and that WF was hoping to get a "twofer" by shooting DV. As if DV flipping scum would have conclusively incriminated the person DV was voting for.
He also said this which gave me the actual shivers in as much as I just speculated it myself for how Tom could still be scum this game:
Yikes. Like, if WF does flip scum, we might have to consider this as an actual possibility.
He also lied? Maybe? Because on D1 he claimed:
But today when asked what all his abilities were he said:
Like, I guess technically the Sudden Death thing which brought Megs into the game also gave Megs 5 empowerment, but that's kind of a misleading way of phrasing his ability. Not unlike the misleading way he phrased his request on D1 when trying to get someone to give him an Empowerment.
Ultimately, I make the call on behavior, and WF hasn't done anything Townie this game.
And he shot the Doc.
I don't know what the vote count is, so I'm not voting. But I'm reiterating that this is where my vote is going to go.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
Well, you'll have to forgive me for thinking it was your plan given how much you've been pushing it and posting it.
I have no idea if it's a good plan or not. I would be basically taking it on faith. You get that, right? This is where my own lack of info is hindering me.
I'm not concealing nothing. I have not done a 1-way chat with anyone yet.
AND YET YOURE BEING 100% DESPERATE AND DEFLECTING AWAY FROM ANYTHING THAT WOULD REMOTELY HELP THE TOWN AND YOURSELF IF YOU WERE TOWN
WAAAAH SEPPEL IS MORE VOCAL ABOUT CYTHARE'S PLAN THAN CYTHARE IS AND THAT MAKES ME HATE IT I'M A WHINY LITTLE BABY WHO CANT DO ANYTHING RIGHT SO I'LL DO MY BEST TO BE AS OBTRUSIVE AS POSSIBLE FOR ZERO REASON ZERO LOGIC ZERO COHERENCE
LOOK AT ME IM AXELROD AND I CAN DO ANYTHING I WANT BECAUSE IM SCUM ILL JUST KEEP REPEATING MY MINDLESS BLATHER OVER AND OVER SINCE ITS THE ONLY WAY ILL SAVE MYSELF I HAVE NO MENTAL RECOURSE FOR ANY ACTIONS I TAKE IN A GAME OF MAFIA ILL JUST PLUG MY EARS AND GO LA LA LA AND EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE IM SAFE HERE WITH YOU MOMMY WHERE THE GOOD GUYS CANT HURT ME OOPS DID I SAY GOOD GUYS I MEANT BAD GUYS YEAH THATS RIGHT THE BAD GUYS ARE BULLYING ME DONT YOU SEE THEY NEED TO BE STOPPED IT LOOKS LIKE THEYRE DOING GOOD BUT ITS ACTUSLLY BAD WHAT???? NO I DONT HAVE ANY EVIDENCE I HAVE GOD ON MY SIDE AND WITH THAT I WILL PREVAIL AGAINST THE HATERS PRAISE THE LORD
That's what you sound like to me.
I'M ALSO GOING TO IGNORE ANY REQUESTS TO PROPOSE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN AND INSTEAD JUST MAINTAIN MY ZERO EFFORT GAME OF READING WILDFIRE FOR NO GOOD REASON BECAUSE IF I DO TRY TO PROPOSE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN THEN ILL SURELY BE OUTED AS SCUM FOR SUCH A SUBOPTIMAL SUGGESTION
Seppel just needs to stop talking to me.
If you post something that in my judgment detracts from others' enjoyment of the game, is flamey, angsty, generally annoying, or overly combative, you get a strike. Don't much care whether it's genuine, justified or unjustified, or simply feigned, if it detracts from the game. Three strikes, and you're modkilled. I reserve the right to tally multiple strikes for the same post, or for a series of posts, so it's entirely possible you can wind up dead without any further warning if you're on a nice streak.
Seppel, watch it. You are not entitled to call anyone in this game a "whiny little baby". GJ and MH, you had some moments earlier, but keep on keeping it clean.
GJ, flame me to get modkilled so we can resolve your slot.
I second Cythare's question: are you reading Seppel as Scum, or a filthy liar?
Proving your ability won't change anything, I don't think. Your ability is as NAI as they come.
I don't see how anyone could think you and Iso were Scum together, though. I mean, I SUPPOSE it's possible you guys were faking all the ire and frustration (that's mostly on Iso's part), but it all seemed very genuine to me.
I just don't see you two as Scum together this game.
You know, that's what happens when you decide to lie for no reason.
However, as Anak pointed out earlier, I really don't see GJ and WF as Scum together based on the evidence he presented AND GJ's words Today against WF.
There's a valid argument both for WF to be Town and Scum. I believe the Town one is the correct one.
@ Seppel: Jesus Christ, dude, chill out. I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Axel. Scum team is GJ and Anak. If there's a 4th, THAT might be Axel, but I don't think there is.
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I thought you were one ugly mother****er when I met you at Gen Con.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Seppel, you were an awesome person. Actually, the only surprise was that you looked younger than the what my mind perceived you to be based on mafia. I don't know why I expected older, but I did.
guess I wouldn't be getting 2-3 strikes.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
OOG: Make sure you let me know how the pulled pork is whenever the wifey makes it.
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I may be having trouble parsing my feelings on that one. I don't read him as Town. I don't trust him to the point where I would follow anything he might propose we do. But he's also got some things that point away from being Mafia. So, atm I'm ignoring him.
I haven't got a fully formed opinion on GJ right now, but I don't see where he couldn't be scum with WF on the surface. Just because he's pushing WF now? At risk of feeding the Seppel, I'll point out that If WF is scum he decided to throw himself on the fire today and it's easily possible that his scum-buddies would just be piling on.
With 16 people, 17 counting the one added from the spec forum, you think we only have 3 Mafia?
The spec. forum thing is tricky because I would have said 4 in a 16 player game was likely at the start, and 5 would be too many. Starting with 3 and having the possibility of getting a 4th from the spec forum seems too low though.
I'm also waffling about GJ and Wildfire, my brain says one way, my gut says another.
My votes are where they should be. Everyone should put theirs where they want them to be asap.
PLEASE BE CONSCIOUS OF THE VC BEFORE VOTING. We need everyone voting to empower someone before the Day ends.
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Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch.
Not good enough. If you HAD to choose one or the other RIGHT NOW, which would it be and why?
This is possible, but it doesn't feel right. Yes, I mean feel. It's gut.
Yes, because of the Spec Forum, I think there's only 3. I feel like Az was banking on Scum in the Spec forum being active and waiting for their chance to join the game, so he didn't over-compensate in the regular thread.
I could be wrong, and if I am, we'll evaluate at that time.
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Setting up a mislynch is pretty much the opposite of bussing, so explain your rationale to me.
@Cyth Sure works for me Empower Cyan
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So now you are just lying? You contradict yourself in your last two posts, as you clearly knew I wasn't voting him and accuse me of trying to set up a mislynch.
Vote Manders
So when I flip town your plan is to go after GJ then?
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When I said "Why not? It's called bussing." I thought you were voting GJ.
I then looked back, saw you were NOT voting GJ, and said, "Besides, you're not voting GJ. Making it more likely you're right, but trying to set up a mislynch."
Your move, Scum.
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I lol'ed.
This vote is hilariously opportunistic. But I'm sure you'll 'come to your senses' any minute now and move your vote back to WF. You know, another probable townie.
Just gotta squeeze out that one extra mislynch before you bus GJ, eh?
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If you knew that I would come back with that, then you are agreeing that you contradicted yourself? I'm sure your post read naturally to you, as you were the one who wrote it, so why would you expect me to call you a liar for it?
Yes, if you died and flipped town then I would go after GJ.
from your pov he moved from a townie that might get lynched today to a townie that definitely will not be
whats the scum motivation for that?
ill add that if anak is scum manders/cyan probably arent
i should figure out how axel fits into this.
gj and wildfire still need to be the next two lynches though.
LYNCH ME YOU FILTHY CASUALSALS
MAKE MY DAY
BY THE POWER OF GRAYSKULL
PUNISH THE TOWN
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Meanwhile, we're all sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for content from him.
Relatedly, I'm willing to lynch the following people today: Axel, GJ, Anak. The only way I'm ever voting anyone else is if they literally claim scum and mean it. Can we please just do something here? This is ridiculous.
Insightful question tbh though i need to reread the full exchange when i'm less... like this.
I'm glad you started trying harder after i called you out about it though.
@seppel why is acelrod connexting with bongo and not me?
It would take multiple unexpected town flips for me to want to look there anyway.
Fwiw
I just don't want to wait around for someone that isn't actually posting.
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Yes, I contradicted myself, hence why I said "Should have just taken it out, it seems." So what? I have already explained WHY I contradicted myself.
When it's so blatantly desperate as this one. Anak is desperate to get the attention away from GJ in any way possible. It was obvious what I meant when I said it in the first place.
We're working on it. Calm down.
We're working on it. If people would stop posting without empowering, we could proceed.
Insightful how?
Since when can players not agree with someone they think is Scum?
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Anaklusmos ||||------
Axelrod ||-----
Cyan ||||-----------
Cythare |||-----
Gentleman Johnny ||||||||----------------
Manders |||||||||||-------------------
Seppel ||||||||||||||||---------
shadowlancerx ||||||--
tomsloger |||||||||||||||----------------
Wildfire393 |-----
Zomgarcwind/TheIceMan ||||||||-
Bur
Sir Chris |----
Tordeck ||
DV ||||||||||||----
I kinda regret taking on this project without first figuring out all of the pieces to it. I also realized in retrospect that I didn't really downgrade or upgrade interactions based on if they were actually meaningful, which is terrible. This is most notable with Gentleman Johnny, who has a lot of direct interactions, but many of them are actually meaningless.
ZOMG/TIM is clearly town. All of TIM's interactions are direct, clear, and critical. 997, 1200, and 1285 (where he goes into the post reviewing Anak and comes out voting Iso) are all great examples of this. He only has one passing mention, and that's when he states that he'll need to review Iso's most recent post later. He doesn't, but given the other interactions, I don't think that's a strike against him.
tomsloger also comes off as town. Partially because of the sheer number of interactions, but also that a lot of them were pushing back in what felt like a pretty townie way. 1497 is a bit later on in the Iso wagon, but tom called Iso out on his big catchup post, Iso responded with a crappy answer, and tom followed up by calling him out again. This came across as pretty organic to me. His hesitancy about surrounding scum (such as in 1330) also strikes me as town critically thinking about the gamestate rather than scum trying to find potential marks.
Seppel and Iso railed at each other so much that I just don't see them being buddies.
shadowlancerx's interactions are fine - he doesn't engage much Day 1, but most people don't. His handful of strong interactions come across as town-critical and don't read like bussing to me.
I have to review Manders - she has a lot of interactions which seems fine on a surface level, but they're softer than others' were. This warrants more review.
This leaves Cyan, Axelrod, Anak, Wildfire, GJ, and myself.
Wildfire's only direct interaction with Iso is when Iso makes his first catchup post in 919. When Wildfire isn't on it, he responds with this:
There's a follow-up where Iso clarifies that his post was only through post #300, to which Wildfire says "Oh. Right." Other than that, Wildfire largely avoids interaction with Iso. He mentions him in his first big post after reading up saying he "has an inkling of a read" but chooses not to share it. Iso's the only player he avoids providing a read on. His other passive mentions include a soft jab at the size and quality of Iso's scumteam and damage control for himself by saying that maybe Iso's trying to tie him to Iso's wagon so he can be mislynched. While I didn't actually include D3 mentions, Wildfire follows up on this on D3 by saying he "doesn't know what Iso's motivations were". His post here where he's asked by shadow about how he feels about who's empowering is pretty basic. He leads with saying "but Tom did it too", qualifies his GJ scumread (which also kinda materialized, then disappeared again after D_V's flip), then says "I don't know what Iso's motivations were".
Cyan I'm a bit confused about. His initial vote is because of TIM's post where he ended up voting, which is NAI to me. The locking onto his claim is something I'm a bit wary of, given that roles might be randomized. If we don't know whether or not this is the case, using a role as additional fodder seems unnecessary. Pointing out Iso's weird worldview post here looks decent to me, but then a lot of his other interactions largely come across as dismissive of Iso and reiterating that he's scum. This could be because town!Cyan is just so sure that scum's been found that he doesn't want to listen to Iso any more? Dunno.
Anak has this really awkward post here where it looks like he's trying to claim credit for doing something right while voting Iso. It looks terrible, but that's separate of the interaction itself. His other direct interactions aren't very valuable - he asks Iso why he keeps making big posts if it's hard to glean info from them, but that's his next post after saying that Iso's doing so comes across as townie. He later says that we should consider his vote on Iso (I marked this as direct, for some reason, despite having no other Iso-related content), and then finally calling Iso out for Iso trying to dismiss everyone's cases (and backing up that it's based on POE from one wagon analysis).
Axelrod has two direct interactions - one is for calling Iso out on just catching up instead of participating in the moment, and the other one is really early on when Iso tries to engage Axelrod by asking him a bunch of gamestate-related questions, but they're all softballs. Axelrod otherwise mentions Iso a few times, but not really about anything specific. He twice mentions him as a non-entity and says this is troubling the second time, then says that Iso empowering Sir Chris might look good but might not if scum were planning to NK Chris anyways, moves Iso from neutral to leaning scum in his list (the next time he's mentioned) without any context, and then that's it before the Iso lynch. There is also this post towards the end of Day 2 where Axelrod prods at Anak, which stood out to me as maybe a test of the waters, but he never really follows up on it.
GJ has a lot of interactions, but I noted direct things as direct without actually reviewing how meaningful they were. This next stuff was going to just be the ones I marked as direct but it became something else so keep that in mind. These are all the interactions that I think are meaningless or interactions that just look bad, and there are a lot of them. He has 44 which is just a response to a rules thing, 297 where he clarifies that he swapped Iso and Seppel, this light dig here which looks kinda like coaching, this post which includes a question that feels a lot like a softball about Iso's proposed team for someone that GJ has now mentioned he's leaning scum - there's no pressure indicated here. He then walks back to a null read on Iso in 992 saying Iso "could be the veteran wolf" but he gets the "solve the game feeling" from him, moves him up to slight town in his list, then abruptly scumreads him for the "pfffft" comment (granted, I wouldn't blame a town!GJ for this one), subtly tries to move back towards Wildfire/Anak a couple posts later. He tries to suggest lynching one of Iso/Seppel soon after, when Iso's already the major wagon, then hammers Iso saying he's the last person to use meta, but that he's using meta.
While I skipped Manders, I think that's fine for now based on everyone else.
I feel like there's more I should be digging into here, but I'm tired of reviewing this.
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Most everyone else in the game knows this, but I don't know if you do.
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Of course, I'd never been in a game where he had SO MUCH TROUBLE keeping up before, either. In hindsight...that really should have been a HUGE red flag.
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Unempower: Manders
Empower: Cythare
I feel a little better about this now. Though I've never really felt that Proph-style # of interactions analysis where you're just counting hits and not really looking more at what people are actually saying was particularly helpful. What Cyth. just did was more that that though, so that's good.
Welcome to Tammy as well.
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So, while reading my role pm, I got a little pop up that I needed to update my adobe flash...and I did. Only I'm the dumbest person on earth because it was a virus, so getting rid of that ate into some of the time I had to read today, but on the plus side I now have adblocker!
I doubt I'll get the whole game read tonight, but I should have it done by the end of the weekend. Hopefully tomorrow depending on how dense it is. I'm not a big quote striper, so I'll probably just give you my thoughts in chunks as I go along.
Oh I'm your new seppel