It bothers me that silver made a random list, rather than making the people he thought were wolfiest. Not that I care, I just can't gather my brain right now. Short rough copy without context:
I somehow forgot seppel was in the game. Put him in the Wv pile, because I feel like he isn't game solving. And he didn't move my ability like he said he would have.
I try to avoid null at this stage, so the nulls I put with a vw, and obviously the capital letter was basically "gunshot, I lean this way". I would like everyone to avoid null.
When has tom ever been self conscious at all? Serious question.
Tom's first few games he stumbled everywhere and was hugely self-conscious at times, as town. But you're right that he hasn't really been this game until now, which is odd.
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When has tom ever been self conscious at all? Serious question.
Tom's first few games he stumbled everywhere and was hugely self-conscious at times, as town. But you're right that he hasn't really been this game until now, which is odd.
Not going to comment on me putting you as the wolfiest slot in the game? And why did it take me dragging you by the ear to get there?
Tordeck had an asterix because despite being in this game and posting on this very page, I forgot he was in this game but caught myself before I posted. Seppel I jsut legit forgot.
When has tom ever been self conscious at all? Serious question.
Tom's first few games he stumbled everywhere and was hugely self-conscious at times, as town. But you're right that he hasn't really been this game until now, which is odd.
That tom went from mislynch fodder to getting shot night 1. I think you will find my playstyle here is worlds difference than Basic 29. Right Manders?
Not going to comment on me putting you as the wolfiest slot in the game? And why did it take me dragging you by the ear to get there?
You've made it no secret that you think I'm scum, you said yesterday that I should be the lynch today, and you're already voting me. I'd be more disconcerted if I *wasn't* your top scum read given all that.
As far as "grabbing me by the ear", I'm available when I'm available, regardless of who is attacking me or why.
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Your missing the point. You were available, but instead of grilling tom for his comment (which you admitted later wasn't good) you were trying to get him to send it to someone. If he was reading the game fully, he would have seen DV's comment.
So, my initial and probably very superficial thoughts of the morning.
Chris dying is a big ? to me, but maybe I was the only one who was having issues, and I guess it really does seem like scum run scared from him (the only other game I ever played with him he was scum, and I thought he was scummy, but there were two scum teams and the other scum team still killed him early.)
Regardless, that looks a little better for the people who threw empowerments his way (which would be Iso, Cythare). The small caveat here is, if they were planning to NK him anyway, then maybe they wouldn't care too much about empowering him.
Chris expressed strong suspicions about (maybe?) two people yesterday, who were (1) Tom and (2) Wildfire. I seem to recall Wildfire being one of the people who expressed strong opinions about Chris's Town game, so that might fit with the scum NK choice, and this:
Quote from Wildfire »
Do you really think that I, as scum, would take out someone who was that vocal in suspecting me?
does not impress me as a strong argument for why you wouldn't NK Chris. Like, what's the alternative for scum you? Leave him alive to continue to go after you today + whatever else he might do (he got some empowerments yesterday).
But Wildfire also said he was using an ability that would (maybe?) kill himself today, so I'm willing to let that one play out a bit longer. Also, Tom empowered him based on this promise to use this ability today, and Tom is still floating from where I'm sitting, and really hasn't done anything to make me think he's Town.
I have zero issues with Manders using an ability to unempower Tom. I do, however, have a question about her "double-vote" today which is: is this one of your own empower abilities at work here? Or is this "something else." Also, I'm really sorry about your family.
Fianlly, Anak certainly still seems viable. It's a little like Bur though, being he's doing a lot of nothing.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'm going to make a real post (with a look at the Bur wagon, and possibly Anak) later. For the time being, I should probably let everyone know that I'm now a miller.
Bur was town, and I am town, so that leaves GJ/Shadow/Seppel/Tordeck/Iso/DV/Manders. Removing Seppel for now, as he is neutral or something drops us to 6 candidates.
How many people on this wagon are scum? I'm betting 2, GJ and Shadow were on Bur for a majority of the first day so letting them pass.
Tordeck's vote in #1051 is just horrible. See's DV and Iso hop onto Bur, and just tries to slide his vote in without drawing notice, while also trying to keep knocking Tom. He posts no reasoning for moving his vote, other than Bur is gaining traction. Sure, Bur had been suspected by many players for a while, but probably should make any comment at all on deciding to vote him.
Iso's vote is murky too but at least is fitting with his word-vomit-then-post-nothing mentality, so probably town. Something to remember though
Mander's hammer is just awful however in #1055. States she believes strongly that Bur is scum, then added a comment about how she feels if he flips town. Makes a comment about learning a ton from Bur's flip, then expresses literally no surprise at all to see Bur flip town today, and just moves on to vote with no explanation. Screams to me that she didn't actually think Bur was scum. I would think someone who was so confident, allegedly, that Bur was scum would at least say something in regards to being wrong.
Betting on Tordeck and Manders' as scum from their votes, starting with Manders' because of her end of D1/beginning of D2
Your missing the point. You were available, but instead of grilling tom for his comment (which you admitted later wasn't good) you were trying to get him to send it to someone. If he was reading the game fully, he would have seen DV's comment.
Well, having not played with Tom since he got "good", it just seemed characteristically Tom.
I'm going to make a real post (with a look at the Bur wagon, and possibly Anak) later. For the time being, I should probably let everyone know that I'm now a miller.
You are "now" a miller? Meaning you weren't before?
Bur was town, and I am town, so that leaves GJ/Shadow/Seppel/Tordeck/Iso/DV/Manders. Removing Seppel for now, as he is neutral or something drops us to 6 candidates.
How many people on this wagon are scum? I'm betting 2, GJ and Shadow were on Bur for a majority of the first day so letting them pass.
Tordeck's vote in #1051 is just horrible. See's DV and Iso hop onto Bur, and just tries to slide his vote in without drawing notice, while also trying to keep knocking Tom. He posts no reasoning for moving his vote, other than Bur is gaining traction. Sure, Bur had been suspected by many players for a while, but probably should make any comment at all on deciding to vote him.
Iso's vote is murky too but at least is fitting with his word-vomit-then-post-nothing mentality, so probably town. Something to remember though
Mander's hammer is just awful however in #1055. States she believes strongly that Bur is scum, then added a comment about how she feels if he flips town. Makes a comment about learning a ton from Bur's flip, then expresses literally no surprise at all to see Bur flip town today, and just moves on to vote with no explanation. Screams to me that she didn't actually think Bur was scum. I would think someone who was so confident, allegedly, that Bur was scum would at least say something in regards to being wrong.
Betting on Tordeck and Manders' as scum from their votes, starting with Manders' because of her end of D1/beginning of D2
Vote Manders
I like this post a lot.
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I tend to dislike Manders' playstyle overall, but she hadn't done anything overtly scummy earlier in D1. Just kept my eye out, then after the Bur flip I went back that her vote and start of today jumped out hard.
I know I have been quiet, that's on me for playing so poorly. I may go down today for it, but I'll be damned if I am going to go down doing nothing
I have zero issues with Manders using an ability to unempower Tom. I do, however, have a question about her "double-vote" today which is: is this one of your own empower abilities at work here? Or is this "something else." Also, I'm really sorry about your family.
Thank you.
My double empower vote is a direct result of eliminating tom's empower vote.
I'm going to make a real post (with a look at the Bur wagon, and possibly Anak) later. For the time being, I should probably let everyone know that I'm now a miller.
Bur was town, and I am town, so that leaves GJ/Shadow/Seppel/Tordeck/Iso/DV/Manders. Removing Seppel for now, as he is neutral or something drops us to 6 candidates.
How many people on this wagon are scum? I'm betting 2, GJ and Shadow were on Bur for a majority of the first day so letting them pass.
Tordeck's vote in #1051 is just horrible. See's DV and Iso hop onto Bur, and just tries to slide his vote in without drawing notice, while also trying to keep knocking Tom. He posts no reasoning for moving his vote, other than Bur is gaining traction. Sure, Bur had been suspected by many players for a while, but probably should make any comment at all on deciding to vote him.
Iso's vote is murky too but at least is fitting with his word-vomit-then-post-nothing mentality, so probably town. Something to remember though
Mander's hammer is just awful however in #1055. States she believes strongly that Bur is scum, then added a comment about how she feels if he flips town. Makes a comment about learning a ton from Bur's flip, then expresses literally no surprise at all to see Bur flip town today, and just moves on to vote with no explanation. Screams to me that she didn't actually think Bur was scum. I would think someone who was so confident, allegedly, that Bur was scum would at least say something in regards to being wrong.
Betting on Tordeck and Manders' as scum from their votes, starting with Manders' because of her end of D1/beginning of D2
Vote Manders
You should probably look back farther to see who started the Bur wagon in the first place. You know, since you're inexplicably clearing people for being the first to suspect him. (Hint: It was me.)
That being said, feel free to pursue this. If it means you'll actually do something Today, I'm all for it.
I tend to dislike Manders' playstyle overall, but she hadn't done anything overtly scummy earlier in D1. Just kept my eye out, then after the Bur flip I went back that her vote and start of today jumped out hard.
I know I have been quiet, that's on me for playing so poorly. I may go down today for it, but I'll be damned if I am going to go down doing nothing
More like you saw an opportunity to jump on a poor choice on my part and push through a mislynch. Good luck, Scum.
Anaks last post was actually pretty good, but I don't think a wolf hangers a townie that just self voted. Amy scum member would be thinking neutral, or trap.
I have to look at the wagon too, but iso/ tordeck from pure positioning look the worse.
@Manders It's not just your vote that is bad, its the fact you hammer in that spot. Then Bur flips town, someone you said yourself you started the wagon again, and then today starts and you completely don't mention that at all. You just start looking who to lynch today.
I can't figure out why your first reaction wasn't "Oh ***** I was wrong about Bur, better go look into that." as town, but as scum I could see how you do that. Noted that you didn't respond to this point the first time I posted it either.
@Manders It's not just your vote that is bad, its the fact you hammer in that spot. Then Bur flips town, someone you said yourself you started the wagon again, and then today starts and you completely don't mention that at all. You just start looking who to lynch today.
I can't figure out why your first reaction wasn't "Oh ***** I was wrong about Bur, better go look into that." as town, but as scum I could see how you do that. Noted that you didn't respond to this point the first time I posted it either.
(1) What is the point of commenting on the obvious? Yeah, obviously I was wrong, so it's time to re-evaluate the game and proceed. I don't see how this is indicative of alignment in any way.
(2) Did you miss the part where my ******* Granddad died on Friday, so I was dealing with that? You try going to tell your mother, who is in prison and her dad was the only person keeping her sane, that he ******* died and see if you feel like reading this ***** when you're done. (Aside from the fact that this has brought up a LOT of feelings from when my own dad died last year.)
I somehow forgot seppel was in the game. Put him in the Wv pile, because I feel like he isn't game solving. And he didn't move my ability like he said he would have.
You didn't follow the codex exactly do I made a best guess from what I saw.
Gentleman Johnny - Town
Seppel - Judas
Wildfire393 - Scum
Manders - Scum
D_V - Town
Anaklusmos - Scum
Cythare - Scum
Tordeck - Town
Axelrod - Town
Iso - Scum
Cyan - Town
shadowlancerx - Town
TheIceMan - Scum
tomsloger - Town
Since I will not be able to do this once I leave work (and it is a completely random list, anyway...)
Gentleman Johnny - No clue
Seppel - Neutral who should be ignored
Wildfire393 - Scum
Manders -
D_V - Town
Anaklusmos - Scum
Cythare - Leaning Scum
Tordeck - No clue
Axelrod - Heavily leaning Town
Iso - Leaning Town
Cyan - Leaning Town
shadowlancerx - Slightly leaning Scum
TheIceMan - Probably Town
tomsloger - Heavily leaning Scum
Since I will not be able to do this once I leave work (and it is a completely random list, anyway...)
Gentleman Johnny - No clue
Seppel - Neutral who should be ignored
Wildfire393 - Scum
Manders -
D_V - Town
Anaklusmos - Scum
Cythare - Leaning Scum
Tordeck - No clue
Axelrod - Heavily leaning Town
Iso - Leaning Town
Cyan - Leaning Town
shadowlancerx - Slightly leaning Scum
TheIceMan - Probably Town
tomsloger - Heavily leaning Scum
That's almost a T/S list except for the part where you leave out where town ends, null (if any) begin, and scum starts.
Unvote
Vote Wildgire
It's a continuum. You're a big boy, you can figure out that the people near the top of the list are town, the people at the bottom are scum, and the people in the middle are in the middle. Like GJ said, "null" is meaningless.
If you really want it with hand-holding, here you go:
Likely town:
TIM
GJ
Shadowlancer
Axel
Cyan
Still Making My Mind up:
(Probably Town)
Cythare
Anaklusmos
Iso
(Probably Scum)
Tomsloger
Seppel
Yes, I can get that the people closest to the top are town and closest to the bottom are scum. I also don't think null is meaningless, but your format makes it much easier to hedge. It doesn't give any sort of indication of how many strong reads you have.
I'm having a hard time rationalizing why Tom would care about a neutral survivor that wanted to win with the scum. I would see that and wonder what that even means. The one way I see to leverage that information is seeing how others react to you while knowing you are that survivor.
As scum I would throw that information out there, and let the town fight over whether or not they believed it. Using that to disrupt the game.
Believing you enough to vote Seppel doesn't really change it. As a neutral survivor who you want to work with is something that can change many time to best suit your needs, it's not like you claimed scum godfather and he sat on that.
I don't see how this makes Tom scum, and I see many ways he could be town, so that's what I am going with.
Iso your post looks like a lot of work, appreciate that. Parsing through what it means and what to gleam from it still
How is this a town post? Just..how.
What are you guys seeing re: Anak that I'm not.
This is basically where I'm at.
@TIM: While I get the conclusion you've come to on tom, I can't get behind lynching him at this point because of Anak. They definitely can't be scum together, because I can't see a scenario where two scumbuddies would just tie themselves to each other by casually calling each other town. It's the exact opposite of a recipe for success, and Anak seems far and away the clearer scumread to me.
While I agree it is highly unlikely that they are both Scum for the reason you provided, to say that they definitely cannot be Scum together is a logical fallacy. They COULD be doing that JUST to throw people off in the way you are showing here.
Never write off something as impossible when it's merely improbable.
Fine, then a more accurate statement is that my tomsloger scum read is heavily tempered by the improbability of him being scum with Anak, who I have a stronger scum read on.
Fine, then a more accurate statement is that my tomsloger scum read is heavily tempered by the improbability of him being scum with Anak, who I have a stronger scum read on.
Fine, then a more accurate statement is that my tomsloger scum read is heavily tempered by the improbability of him being scum with Anak, who I have a stronger scum read on.
what if i told you we were both town?
I would ask you to build a case, because I can't see it.
Let's have a look back, now that we know Bur's alignment.
D_V's #53 looks pretty good, as the "legitimately" shows evidence of genuine consideration. Scum don't tend to mentally equivocate over a read.
I don't like Iso's #127. It feels like he's piggybacking off my #125, and I would expect Iso to give us more than this. I also don't buy the certainty in #136. Again, Iso's a good player, and these posts read much more like "I've decided to formulate an opinion" than anything else.
I brought it up at the time, but Tom's #143 looks even worse in retrospect. It's a classic scum move - acknowledge that some townie's behavior is scummy, but find a reason not to vote them. If Tom were town I would expect him to suggest an alternate direction.
It's interesting that Iso waffles on Tom in #148. Possible scumbuddy interaction. Tom's reply in #174 is also worth looking at (see #302 as well) - he seems overly keen to make it clear that he's not "going up to bat for" Bur. When in fact he is doing exactly that, and should be fine with acknowledging that he is.
It is to Iso's credit in #198 that he points out Tom is defending Bur, but not trying to offer any plausible direction of his own.
GJ first expresses an opinion about Bur in #314. I think he/she should have more of an opinion (or at least a justification for that null read) given that he/she has made a bunch of posts and spent a lot of time talking to Tom, whose main contribution to this point is "defending" Bur.
The first real action on Bur are Manders' #569 and #580. They seem a bit too aggressive(ly dumb) to be scum.
And then, whowouldathunkit? GJ suddenly develops a scumread on Bur and votes him/her in #592 and #594, respectively. I particularly love how this change of heart is described as a "fun fact." He/she is also at pains to emphasize that this isn't a particularly strong scum read (see #597, but if that's the case, why not vote for someone you actually think is scum? Then, once Manders unvotes Bur, meaning it's safe to take an even stronger stand, GJ's #694 does everything but say "look, obvscum over here!" The crux of the issue is that GJ's opinion of Bur is completely malleable according to what else is going on in the game, and has literally nothing to do with what Bur has/hasn't actually done.
#655 is a sneaky vote by Shadowlancer. The joke could be a deflection, too. This is undercut totally by #728, so much so that I actually did a complete 180 on his/her alignment.
Did Seppel just declare himself scum and announce his NK thinking in #696? (Note the terrible Bur vote too.)
GJ's #726 is another straight /barn of Manders. #727 is an attempt to justify the vote after-the-fact by latching onto Manders' frustration and apathy.
Iso's #749 is a really scummy post. It reeks of a) appearing to take a position; b) not actually taking a position; and c) wanting to be seen as producing content. Not to mention the point I made earlier, that Iso ought to have a better scum read than someone who's made 6 or 7 posts total, and ought to want to convince others of the validity of that read. #753 is more of the same, except with the added issue that Iso isn't even concerned about getting NK'd.
Anak's #755 is bad, given that he/she hasn't even mentioned Bur to this point and yet isn't "dissuaded" by the claim. Good on Manders for thinking the same thing in #778.
Wildfire's (slightly naive) concern about "outing power roles" in #769 reads as town to me.
Tom's vote in #773 is opportunistic. It comes just as the pressure on Bur is beginning to subside.
GJ's #784 is an interesting one. I'm not sure how much scum want to invite pressure. However, it's low risk as the pressure on him/her is minimal, and it provides a distraction from having to advocate for pushing town over the edge. Once I do begin to attack him/her, he/she uses the opportunity to push the narrative of "consistently pushing" the Bur wagon, a narrative I debunk in #807. GJ's actions do not add up from a town perspective. He/she claims to believe that Bur and Anak are both scum and he/she is simply torn between them. And yet, he/she has done nothing all game to advance either wagon. Anak has just been scum for no discernible reason, while Bur has been scum whenever there's sufficient pressure. Now that there's a chance to actually lynch one of these two "scum," he/she is spending time and energy attacking me? And then we come to #1004, where GJ pulls a 180 and gets upset that I've distracted from a Bur lynch. So what's caused the change of heart? The main "development" is that Tom - coincidentally (?) my other top scumread - has fallen under scrutiny. No slam dunk, but certainly very intriguing.
Cythare's #788 is very equivocal. I've had a low-level bad feeling about him/her for the whole game, and this post does nothing to assuage that.
I didn't really notice Tom's #829 the first time round, but upon review it's an absolutely meaningless post. Can't get any more obvious than "theorizing" that the same people who vote less and post less are also likely to empower less.
Iso's #919 is notable in that Iso has already declared himself OK with a Bur lynch. Yet, there is nothing here to suggest that Bur is the scummiest player in the game through post #300 (which Iso claims to have read up to). His comment on Bur's opening post is particularly noteworthy. I agree that the post in question is "devoid of feeling," but that isn't really a tell, and then the questioning of Bur's question to D_V seems forced. More importantly, if I were town-Iso, I'd want to read the whole game and stamp my authority on it, not just go along with a lynch based on a few moderately scummy posts by a player very early in the game.
GJ's callout to "Bur's team" in #988 feels forced. I'm not sure how Bur posting more as soon as the pressure's off is a scumtell, but GJ seems to think it is (more likely he/she "found" a reason to go nuts on Bur). Then there's #992, where he/she seems way too sure that Sir Chris is town, particularly given that Sir Chris hasn't done anything in hundreds of posts. The whole "lolswolf" and "veteran wolf" theorycrafting is just fluff masquerading as scumhunting.
I'm not a fan of Cythare's #1016. It's engaging with my post without engaging with the substance of it.
I think Iso has produced only one townie post the whole game, and that trend continues in #1050. He finally votes after being "on board" with a Bur lynch for ages, but is also at pains to remind us that he's only read 500 posts thus far. #1086 effectively reads "look how hard I'm trying to seem like I'm not paying attention!"
Moving on to Day 2, GJ's #1115 is another bad vote. Recall how he spent he/she spent the latter half of Day 1 claiming that he/she was torn between Bur and Anak. Now that Anak's getting some pressure, it's time to vote WF? #1152 is also total BS given that Tom has probably said 20 times that he's looking to be read as mildly scummy. The list that follows is probably OK, but it's quite noncommittal.
Cythare's #1183 is either naive or scummy. I've seen plenty of scumlists that way, regardless of alignment.
So, let's recap. I don't think my reads have changed that much from D1. GJ is still my top scum pick, followed by Tom. Then probably Iso and Cythare. Anak is possible, but I don't think he's near the top of the list right now. Vote GJ.
When has tom ever been self conscious at all? Serious question.
VV
Axelrod
DV
Manders
V
Cythare
TIM
Shadow
Tordeck*
Vw
Cyan
Iso
Wv
Anak
W
tom
WW
Wildfire
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Don't know, but towntom usually doesn't give a ***** half the time. He cares about having fun, not how he looks.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I try to avoid null at this stage, so the nulls I put with a vw, and obviously the capital letter was basically "gunshot, I lean this way". I would like everyone to avoid null.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Tom's first few games he stumbled everywhere and was hugely self-conscious at times, as town. But you're right that he hasn't really been this game until now, which is odd.
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Not going to comment on me putting you as the wolfiest slot in the game? And why did it take me dragging you by the ear to get there?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Tordeck had an asterix because despite being in this game and posting on this very page, I forgot he was in this game but caught myself before I posted. Seppel I jsut legit forgot.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
That tom went from mislynch fodder to getting shot night 1. I think you will find my playstyle here is worlds difference than Basic 29. Right Manders?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Seppel
Wildfire
Manders
You've made it no secret that you think I'm scum, you said yesterday that I should be the lynch today, and you're already voting me. I'd be more disconcerted if I *wasn't* your top scum read given all that.
As far as "grabbing me by the ear", I'm available when I'm available, regardless of who is attacking me or why.
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The GJ way path to no lynching:
Chris dying is a big ? to me, but maybe I was the only one who was having issues, and I guess it really does seem like scum run scared from him (the only other game I ever played with him he was scum, and I thought he was scummy, but there were two scum teams and the other scum team still killed him early.)
Regardless, that looks a little better for the people who threw empowerments his way (which would be Iso, Cythare). The small caveat here is, if they were planning to NK him anyway, then maybe they wouldn't care too much about empowering him.
Chris expressed strong suspicions about (maybe?) two people yesterday, who were (1) Tom and (2) Wildfire. I seem to recall Wildfire being one of the people who expressed strong opinions about Chris's Town game, so that might fit with the scum NK choice, and this:
does not impress me as a strong argument for why you wouldn't NK Chris. Like, what's the alternative for scum you? Leave him alive to continue to go after you today + whatever else he might do (he got some empowerments yesterday).
But Wildfire also said he was using an ability that would (maybe?) kill himself today, so I'm willing to let that one play out a bit longer. Also, Tom empowered him based on this promise to use this ability today, and Tom is still floating from where I'm sitting, and really hasn't done anything to make me think he's Town.
I have zero issues with Manders using an ability to unempower Tom. I do, however, have a question about her "double-vote" today which is: is this one of your own empower abilities at work here? Or is this "something else." Also, I'm really sorry about your family.
Fianlly, Anak certainly still seems viable. It's a little like Bur though, being he's doing a lot of nothing.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Official Vote Count:
Bur- GJ, shadow, Anak, seppel, Todeck, Iso, DV, Bur, Manders
Bur was town, and I am town, so that leaves GJ/Shadow/Seppel/Tordeck/Iso/DV/Manders. Removing Seppel for now, as he is neutral or something drops us to 6 candidates.
How many people on this wagon are scum? I'm betting 2, GJ and Shadow were on Bur for a majority of the first day so letting them pass.
Tordeck's vote in #1051 is just horrible. See's DV and Iso hop onto Bur, and just tries to slide his vote in without drawing notice, while also trying to keep knocking Tom. He posts no reasoning for moving his vote, other than Bur is gaining traction. Sure, Bur had been suspected by many players for a while, but probably should make any comment at all on deciding to vote him.
Iso's vote is murky too but at least is fitting with his word-vomit-then-post-nothing mentality, so probably town. Something to remember though
Mander's hammer is just awful however in #1055. States she believes strongly that Bur is scum, then added a comment about how she feels if he flips town. Makes a comment about learning a ton from Bur's flip, then expresses literally no surprise at all to see Bur flip town today, and just moves on to vote with no explanation. Screams to me that she didn't actually think Bur was scum. I would think someone who was so confident, allegedly, that Bur was scum would at least say something in regards to being wrong.
Betting on Tordeck and Manders' as scum from their votes, starting with Manders' because of her end of D1/beginning of D2
Vote Manders
Well, having not played with Tom since he got "good", it just seemed characteristically Tom.
I expressed slight suspicion of him.
You are "now" a miller? Meaning you weren't before?
I like this post a lot.
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I know I have been quiet, that's on me for playing so poorly. I may go down today for it, but I'll be damned if I am going to go down doing nothing
reading this as serious is wolfy
Thank you.
My double empower vote is a direct result of eliminating tom's empower vote.
Any idea how that happened?
You should probably look back farther to see who started the Bur wagon in the first place. You know, since you're inexplicably clearing people for being the first to suspect him. (Hint: It was me.)
That being said, feel free to pursue this. If it means you'll actually do something Today, I'm all for it.
Of course you do.
More like you saw an opportunity to jump on a poor choice on my part and push through a mislynch. Good luck, Scum.
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Anaks last post was actually pretty good, but I don't think a wolf hangers a townie that just self voted. Amy scum member would be thinking neutral, or trap.
I have to look at the wagon too, but iso/ tordeck from pure positioning look the worse.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I can't figure out why your first reaction wasn't "Oh ***** I was wrong about Bur, better go look into that." as town, but as scum I could see how you do that. Noted that you didn't respond to this point the first time I posted it either.
Manders hammer is likely + town EV.
Still Wolfy.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
thats the premise of the joke...
<.<
The GJ way path to no lynching:
(1) What is the point of commenting on the obvious? Yeah, obviously I was wrong, so it's time to re-evaluate the game and proceed. I don't see how this is indicative of alignment in any way.
(2) Did you miss the part where my ******* Granddad died on Friday, so I was dealing with that? You try going to tell your mother, who is in prison and her dad was the only person keeping her sane, that he ******* died and see if you feel like reading this ***** when you're done. (Aside from the fact that this has brought up a LOT of feelings from when my own dad died last year.)
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Gentleman Johnny - Town
Seppel - Judas
Wildfire393 - Scum
Manders - Scum
D_V - Town
Anaklusmos - Scum
Cythare - Scum
Tordeck - Town
Axelrod - Town
Iso - Scum
Cyan - Town
shadowlancerx - Town
TheIceMan - Scum
tomsloger - Town
Gentleman Johnny - No clue
Seppel - Neutral who should be ignored
Wildfire393 - Scum
Manders -
D_V - Town
Anaklusmos - Scum
Cythare - Leaning Scum
Tordeck - No clue
Axelrod - Heavily leaning Town
Iso - Leaning Town
Cyan - Leaning Town
shadowlancerx - Slightly leaning Scum
TheIceMan - Probably Town
tomsloger - Heavily leaning Scum
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TheIceMan
Gentleman Johnny
shadowlancerx
Axelrod
Cyan
Cythare
Anaklusmos
Iso
tomsloger
Seppel
D_V
Manders
Tordeck
--Scum--
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Only three people are scummier than the neutral...
It's a continuum. You're a big boy, you can figure out that the people near the top of the list are town, the people at the bottom are scum, and the people in the middle are in the middle. Like GJ said, "null" is meaningless.
If you really want it with hand-holding, here you go:
Likely town:
TIM
GJ
Shadowlancer
Axel
Cyan
Still Making My Mind up:
(Probably Town)
Cythare
Anaklusmos
Iso
(Probably Scum)
Tomsloger
Seppel
Liklely Scum:
D_V
Manders
Tordeck
>implying I believe you're telling the truth about being neutral
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DV
Anak
Cythare
Let's do this!
Strong Town:
D_V
shadowlancerx
TheIceMan
Lean Town:
Axelrod
Tordeck
Gentleman Johnny
IDK/Neutral:
Cyan
Seppel
Lean Scum:
tomsloger*
Iso
Manders
Strong Scum:
Wildfire
Anaklusmos
*Would be a stronger scum read, but cannot be scum with Anaklusmos, who seems much more likely.
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The Family
When are you going to do something? Ever? Or should we just lynch you now?
I'll let him answer, but really? You can do better than this.
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Never write off something as impossible when it's merely improbable.
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/joke
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Nah, it'd be +EV for you to go for the Tom mislynch.
D_V's #53 looks pretty good, as the "legitimately" shows evidence of genuine consideration. Scum don't tend to mentally equivocate over a read.
I don't like Iso's #127. It feels like he's piggybacking off my #125, and I would expect Iso to give us more than this. I also don't buy the certainty in #136. Again, Iso's a good player, and these posts read much more like "I've decided to formulate an opinion" than anything else.
I brought it up at the time, but Tom's #143 looks even worse in retrospect. It's a classic scum move - acknowledge that some townie's behavior is scummy, but find a reason not to vote them. If Tom were town I would expect him to suggest an alternate direction.
It's interesting that Iso waffles on Tom in #148. Possible scumbuddy interaction. Tom's reply in #174 is also worth looking at (see #302 as well) - he seems overly keen to make it clear that he's not "going up to bat for" Bur. When in fact he is doing exactly that, and should be fine with acknowledging that he is.
It is to Iso's credit in #198 that he points out Tom is defending Bur, but not trying to offer any plausible direction of his own.
GJ first expresses an opinion about Bur in #314. I think he/she should have more of an opinion (or at least a justification for that null read) given that he/she has made a bunch of posts and spent a lot of time talking to Tom, whose main contribution to this point is "defending" Bur.
The first real action on Bur are Manders' #569 and #580. They seem a bit too aggressive(ly dumb) to be scum.
And then, whowouldathunkit? GJ suddenly develops a scumread on Bur and votes him/her in #592 and #594, respectively. I particularly love how this change of heart is described as a "fun fact." He/she is also at pains to emphasize that this isn't a particularly strong scum read (see #597, but if that's the case, why not vote for someone you actually think is scum? Then, once Manders unvotes Bur, meaning it's safe to take an even stronger stand, GJ's #694 does everything but say "look, obvscum over here!" The crux of the issue is that GJ's opinion of Bur is completely malleable according to what else is going on in the game, and has literally nothing to do with what Bur has/hasn't actually done.
#655 is a sneaky vote by Shadowlancer. The joke could be a deflection, too. This is undercut totally by #728, so much so that I actually did a complete 180 on his/her alignment.
Did Seppel just declare himself scum and announce his NK thinking in #696? (Note the terrible Bur vote too.)
GJ's #726 is another straight /barn of Manders. #727 is an attempt to justify the vote after-the-fact by latching onto Manders' frustration and apathy.
Iso's #749 is a really scummy post. It reeks of a) appearing to take a position; b) not actually taking a position; and c) wanting to be seen as producing content. Not to mention the point I made earlier, that Iso ought to have a better scum read than someone who's made 6 or 7 posts total, and ought to want to convince others of the validity of that read. #753 is more of the same, except with the added issue that Iso isn't even concerned about getting NK'd.
Anak's #755 is bad, given that he/she hasn't even mentioned Bur to this point and yet isn't "dissuaded" by the claim. Good on Manders for thinking the same thing in #778.
Wildfire's (slightly naive) concern about "outing power roles" in #769 reads as town to me.
Tom's vote in #773 is opportunistic. It comes just as the pressure on Bur is beginning to subside.
GJ's #784 is an interesting one. I'm not sure how much scum want to invite pressure. However, it's low risk as the pressure on him/her is minimal, and it provides a distraction from having to advocate for pushing town over the edge. Once I do begin to attack him/her, he/she uses the opportunity to push the narrative of "consistently pushing" the Bur wagon, a narrative I debunk in #807. GJ's actions do not add up from a town perspective. He/she claims to believe that Bur and Anak are both scum and he/she is simply torn between them. And yet, he/she has done nothing all game to advance either wagon. Anak has just been scum for no discernible reason, while Bur has been scum whenever there's sufficient pressure. Now that there's a chance to actually lynch one of these two "scum," he/she is spending time and energy attacking me? And then we come to #1004, where GJ pulls a 180 and gets upset that I've distracted from a Bur lynch. So what's caused the change of heart? The main "development" is that Tom - coincidentally (?) my other top scumread - has fallen under scrutiny. No slam dunk, but certainly very intriguing.
Cythare's #788 is very equivocal. I've had a low-level bad feeling about him/her for the whole game, and this post does nothing to assuage that.
I didn't really notice Tom's #829 the first time round, but upon review it's an absolutely meaningless post. Can't get any more obvious than "theorizing" that the same people who vote less and post less are also likely to empower less.
Iso's #919 is notable in that Iso has already declared himself OK with a Bur lynch. Yet, there is nothing here to suggest that Bur is the scummiest player in the game through post #300 (which Iso claims to have read up to). His comment on Bur's opening post is particularly noteworthy. I agree that the post in question is "devoid of feeling," but that isn't really a tell, and then the questioning of Bur's question to D_V seems forced. More importantly, if I were town-Iso, I'd want to read the whole game and stamp my authority on it, not just go along with a lynch based on a few moderately scummy posts by a player very early in the game.
GJ's callout to "Bur's team" in #988 feels forced. I'm not sure how Bur posting more as soon as the pressure's off is a scumtell, but GJ seems to think it is (more likely he/she "found" a reason to go nuts on Bur). Then there's #992, where he/she seems way too sure that Sir Chris is town, particularly given that Sir Chris hasn't done anything in hundreds of posts. The whole "lolswolf" and "veteran wolf" theorycrafting is just fluff masquerading as scumhunting.
I'm not a fan of Cythare's #1016. It's engaging with my post without engaging with the substance of it.
I think Iso has produced only one townie post the whole game, and that trend continues in #1050. He finally votes after being "on board" with a Bur lynch for ages, but is also at pains to remind us that he's only read 500 posts thus far. #1086 effectively reads "look how hard I'm trying to seem like I'm not paying attention!"
Moving on to Day 2, GJ's #1115 is another bad vote. Recall how he spent he/she spent the latter half of Day 1 claiming that he/she was torn between Bur and Anak. Now that Anak's getting some pressure, it's time to vote WF? #1152 is also total BS given that Tom has probably said 20 times that he's looking to be read as mildly scummy. The list that follows is probably OK, but it's quite noncommittal.
Cythare's #1183 is either naive or scummy. I've seen plenty of scumlists that way, regardless of alignment.
So, let's recap. I don't think my reads have changed that much from D1. GJ is still my top scum pick, followed by Tom. Then probably Iso and Cythare. Anak is possible, but I don't think he's near the top of the list right now. Vote GJ.
cool with it
vote gj