Oh, and I'll point out for the doubters still that, given Cyth. has claimed Neutral, for me to be scum it would mean the scum would have had two roles with extra-kills and there was a "neutral" killing role, and the town had none this game. But Cyth. who is "trying to help the Town and not at all simply trying to save his own skin" is voting for me like he believes that was really the configuration here.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Oh, and I'll point out for the doubters still that, given Cyth. has claimed Neutral, for me to be scum it would mean the scum would have had two roles with extra-kills and there was a "neutral" killing role, and the town had none this game. But Cyth. who is "trying to help the Town and not at all simply trying to save his own skin" is voting for me like he believes that was really the configuration here.
No, I get that. It doesn't actually answer my question. Given that you didn't prove your 2-empower shot, you being a 4-empower killer v me being a 5-empower killer is not that much different. I get what you're saying about the composition of town v scum v neutral killing roles, but given the other medley of roles in both parties, and the statement that roles might have been randomized, you're leaning on an assumption that doesn't have to be true to drive my lynch home.
axelrod both and he have an extra kill. that argument isn't really valid, unless i'm misunderstanding your point.
He's saying that if I'm scum, it's 2 scum killing roles and 1 town killing roles, but if he's scum, it's 2 scum killing roles and 1 neutral killing role, and that he doesn't believe the latter to be possible.
axelrod both and he have an extra kill. that argument isn't really valid, unless i'm misunderstanding your point.
You are slightly misunderstanding. I mean, from where you're sitting (and incidentally from where I'm sitting) the scum got 2 roles with extra killing power in this game. That's kind of ridiculous off the top, but, both WF and Cyth's roles at least had some kind of restrictions on them. WF had to do his out in public and there was at least a chance his target could kill him first. Cyth had to "connect" to someone first, and then it cost (5?) empower to do. And it was also public? I'm not sure about that last one. But I'm just a regular vigilante.
The thing that puts it into the realm of stupid, though, is the idea that in addition to 2 scum extra killing roles, if you believed Cyth, there was also a "Neutral" killing role that can win with the scum, and the Town had ZERO killing roles. That's what you have to believe the set-up was to believe Cyth.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'll also reiterate another point I made earlier. No way - just no way - does Cyth. choose to "re-direct" Wildfire to himself on N1, after WF has announced he has an ability that could result in his death which he was promising to use that night. How insane would Cyth. have to be to do that? Yes, WF also said he had an ability that could give someone Empower. He never said it was the same ability or how much empower it would give. And Cyth's re-direct itself (he claims) cost three. What exactly kind of return on investment was Cyth hoping to get out of that? And at what risk?
He's not that dumb/crazy. It never made any sense.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
axelrod both and he have an extra kill. that argument isn't really valid, unless i'm misunderstanding your point.
You are slightly misunderstanding. I mean, from where you're sitting (and incidentally from where I'm sitting) the scum got 2 roles with extra killing power in this game. That's kind of ridiculous off the top, but, both WF and Cyth's roles at least had some kind of restrictions on them. WF had to do his out in public and there was at least a chance his target could kill him first. Cyth had to "connect" to someone first, and then it cost (5?) empower to do. And it was also public? I'm not sure about that last one. But I'm just a regular vigilante.
The thing that puts it into the realm of stupid, though, is the idea that in addition to 2 scum extra killing roles, if you believed Cyth, there was also a "Neutral" killing role that can win with the scum, and the Town had ZERO killing roles. That's what you have to believe the set-up was to believe Cyth.
Given that you've only killed once, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that your role had a restriction that you never divulged or had to account for.
cythare what are your thoughts on Axelrod's posts from last night?
I was very skeptical about his fearmongering about my empowerment – it looked like an attempt to get you to quicklynch with him. He then says it’s bad that you hesitated, but…you could have just hammered me and won. I guess he explained this in a way with the vig/scum showdown thing, but I’ve also never seen a case where this isn’t just a scum win.
His post on my "silence" was also a weird attempt at a smear. If I’m trying to help the town, why would I message anything to the person I think is the last scum? He wouldn’t have seen me message anything to you.
And his hypothetical is just that – hypothetical. It didn't actually prove or show anything.
I'll also reiterate another point I made earlier. No way - just no way - does Cyth. choose to "re-direct" Wildfire to himself on N1, after WF has announced he has an ability that could result in his death which he was promising to use that night. How insane would Cyth. have to be to do that? Yes, WF also said he had an ability that could give someone Empower. He never said it was the same ability or how much empower it would give. And Cyth's re-direct itself (he claims) cost three. What exactly kind of return on investment was Cyth hoping to get out of that? And at what risk?
He's not that dumb/crazy. It never made any sense.
I've already explained this part multiple times. Furthermore, there wasn't some crazy amount of risk involved here. Wildfire claimed that his ability that could result in his own death happened during the day:
Empower TheIceMan. Towniest person I see at the moment.
Also if anyone wants to see me dead, sending me an empowerment would aid that goal. I have use for a single empowerment point that can result in my death, and if you give it to me I promise to use it.
My ability redirects Night actions, so unless Wildfire had been lying (which he had no reason to, and we now know he wasn't), so there wasn't risk involved. Other than the risk, in retrospect, that I could have been NKed if he'd performed the scum's NK, but that didn't cross my mind at the time.
The "risk" was a stupid and pointless one to take. So, what you're saying is, from your perspective, if he's not lying then you burn 3 empower and get precisely nothing out of it. Since he's not doing anything in the night. Yes, that makes all kinds of sense.
I didn't even read his remarks as saying he had a "day" ability, so much as, whatever he was doing, that might result in his death, it would "take place" during the day.
Try again?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
There's no need to convince you. Azrael had confirmed to me that Night and Day actions can both be activated with sufficient empowerment, so I didn't see why I shouldn't go for his empowerment ability.
He only had 1 empower point. He was promising to use it on the thing that happens during the day that could result in his death. How were you getting anything out of that - especially if, as you just stated, you were only going to get "night actions" re-directed to you?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
You just quoted him, Cyth. He was strongly implying if nothing else, that he had no empower and needed 1 ("a single") point to use this mysterious ability. And he promised to use "it" if given it. Come one. I suppose he could have started with some, but still needed one more to achieve his ability, but either way, that doesn't leave him with left over empower to be doing something else on N1.
You're also ignoring the return on investment argument. How were you realistically expecting to net more than the three empower you were spending on this venture. That's a huge amount to be gambling with with very little info. about what you might get back from it. Completely aside from the "risk of death" part.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
You just quoted him, Cyth. He was strongly implying if nothing else, that he had no empower and needed 1 ("a single") point to use this mysterious ability. And he promised to use "it" if given it. Come one. I suppose he could have started with some, but still needed one more to achieve his ability, but either way, that doesn't leave him with left over empower to be doing something else on N1.
You're also ignoring the return on investment argument. How were you realistically expecting to net more than the three empower you were spending on this venture. That's a huge amount to be gambling with with very little info. about what you might get back from it. Completely aside from the "risk of death" part.
Given that I asked for "2 or 4" empowerment with the intention of that being enough for me to empower 2 abilities, I don't necessarily follow the logic. Also, it makes perfect sense to me that Wildfire would have wanted to reserve any empowerment that he already had for what his other ability and imply that he needed the 1 empowerment, even if he already had it. Also, I addressed your question about return on investment two Days ago. Given the existence of roles granting permanent empowerment, I was hoping to trade 3 regular empowerment for permanent empowerment. It would have been worth it at the trade of 3 regular empowerment for 1 permanent empowerment. I also figured I could do what I ended up doing to accrue more empowerment later on if it didn't pan out.
What do you agree with about what he said Meg? That I was fearmongering?
I mean, I was completely paranoid about what Cyth. might be able to do. And I still think I'm totally right that if he had 5 empower and could have day-killed today we would have just lost without a speed-lynch. Fortunately that did not turn out to be the case, but I don't think it was an unreasonable concern. I'm going to be super interested in finding out how much empower he actually had this game and what he did with it when it's over.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
If you're mostly planning to review Sat/Sun, know that my response time for questions will be pretty slow due to the weekend-long tournament I already mentioned elsewhere.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Okay, fine. Let's go. Prepare for posts in many parts. This may be repetitive of things I've already said. More than once. It might get nit-picky, but I have the advantage of knowing for certain he's scum this time, so let's do it again. Maybe I will actually find a smoking gun.
I'm doing this with the presumption that Cyth. is Mafia, which is what makes the most sense to me. I recognize there is a non-zero chance that what he is is actually a 3rd party SK type, but that seems unlikely. He just hasn't demonstrated enough killing ability to be a SK who needs everyone else dead to win. Plus the fact that that would mean the Mafia only started the game with 3 scum main + the possibility of getting a 4th out of the spec. forum, and that has always seemed too low to me. So he's just Mafia.
Remember his claim: Neutral Survivor. Who must also be connected to everyone (living?). And has both a re-direct ability and a day-kill ability (and he can only day-kill the people he's already connected to, which seems a tiny bit counterproductive, but okay).
Here is what should be your first "Red Flag." Seppel "claimed" at #122. He's a "Neutral" who has to move people's passive abilities around and when he's done so he leaves the game.
One would think that this claim would have at least peaked the interest of another "Neutral" role. We were only (at that time) a 16 player game. How many Neutrals could there be? And this one with a very different kind of win condition. I won't say it was impossible, I'm just saying it would be odd, and it should have made Cyth. curious, if not outright suspicious. I mean, some of us (me) were suspicious of the claim anyway because it just seemed wrong. But how did Cyth. react to this claim?
His first post after Seppel's claim, was a PTAP post @#342, so it probably doesn't count. He might not have seen the claim.
But then, he did his big catch-up post in #535, where he's giving reads on everyone, and what does he say about Seppel?
Seppel is going to stay null for a while.
That is the entirety of what he has to say about Seppel. And that's just wrong. That is not what he would do/say if his role was the role he has claimed. He would have said something else. He would have tried to challenge Seppel at least a little. He would have expressed more of an opinion on Seppel than this. Especially if his mind-set was "I want to win with the Town," which of course is what he says. Frankly, it would have been a very opportune time for him to lay some kind of groundwork for his future reveal. If he's thinking ahead at all, which he should have been. That doesn't mean he claims - don't let him create a strawman defense there - there are a dozen ways he could have expressed doubts about Seppel and/or the Neutral claim which would have been consistent, but what he did wasn't.
The other reads he gives in this post are neither here nor there. It was early, and a competent scum is not going to link himself with his buddies in any kind of obvious way. What's of some note is that he spends a lot of this post explaining his "null" reads, which is kind of an odd thing to do. He has nothing to say about anyone "Town" or "Lean Town," but he goes out of his way almost to explain why he doesn't have an opinion on 6 people. I think it's fine to have no strong opinions on people at this point. Even expected. It's just a little strange that he would make those comments while not saying anything about why he thinks the people he's listed as Town are Town. I think that shows a somewhat defensive mindset. As opposed to his trying to persuade anyone of anything. He also ends with the two easiest/most generally suspected people on the bottom of his list, so that was convenient.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
#609 is another post where "Neutral" Cyth. had a golden opportunity to say something about Neutral roles in general or Seppel's role-claim in particular, but he didn't. He quotes a post of Tordeck's where Tordeck says, among other things:
Oh and scum points awarded to D_V for thinking that anyone should be foolish enough to lynch a neutral claim day 1.
Cyth. is a Neutral! He doesn't have an opinion about this? Come on. Cyth's comments are so measured. He doesn't say Tordeck is wrong. He doesn't say he disagrees, or agrees. He doesn't give his own opinion on DV. He just says:
Is D_V worth lynching solely over that one action, or are there other things contributing to this read?
So, maybe he's just trying to get a read on Tordeck here, and just missing the opportunity to say something about Neutrals. Could be. But the follow-up in that case is very weak. Almost non-existent. He asks Tordeck one more question (that I can see) and then...nothing. I know this is getting nit-picky, but it feels like, if he cared about what he was asking then Cyth. would either (1) follow-up, or, if he got what he was looking for, then (2) express an opinion. He just kind of left it there with Tordeck.
I also feel like Cyth. would/should have had something to say about my attacks on Seppel. Agree/Disagree? Something? He was just too...uninterested in Seppel?
I'm leaving this here for now, and not checking against his later claim, but when Seppel is putting out the call for Empowerment requests, this is what Cyth. says:
If we're nearing the end of the day, it makes sense to share this info with others. Ideally, I'd like 4, but I can make do with 2.
Maybe that makes sense, but maybe not.
He was then completely absent for the D1 lynch.
Then N1. This is where Cyth. decides he's going to use up all his Empower and re-direct Wildfire's action to himself. What is Wildfire's action? As far as Cyth knows, this is exactly everything WF said about it D1:
I have a one-empower active as well as a way to give someone else empowerment, so your assumptions seem *really* bad.
Also if anyone wants to see me dead, sending me an empowerment would aid that goal. I have use for a single empowerment point that can result in my death, and if you give it to me I promise to use it.
Quote from Wildfire »
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But you're not counterclaiming the Bodygaurd?
I am not. My ability is different than his and takes place during the day.
That was literally it.
And based on that, he has claimed, he decided to spend three empowerment to re-direct WF to himself N1, in the hope that this was going to get him "permanent" empowerment for the future. And without any concerns that he might just die from whatever WF was doing.
Man, I should just be able to stop right here. This makes NO SENSE, Meg. It never did. No one in his right mind makes the kind of assumptions Cyth. claims he was making here. Where does WF say anything about "permanent" empowerment? Why would you assume he'd even be using that ability? Especially when he said he'd be using the other one? It's completely stupid.
But, see, he wants/needs to explain how he ended up with WF's ability. Because wouldn't WF want to be giving that Empower away to a fellow scum? This is free empower they have that they can give to each other in secret. Of course they are going to want to give it to themselves. Or if not. If not, it means WF wants to give it to a Townie so he can get some kind of goodwill out of it. Which means he would be wanting to CLAIM DOING IT. But, of course, that never happened. This whole sequence is just nothing but lies.
As is the entire progression of Cyth's claim. I'll maybe try to do that part next.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Your assumptions based on Wildfire's claims are just as faulty as you claim mine are. You're taking a very different understanding of "during the day" than I am. There was no risk I could see to myself. I can't speak to Wildfire's choices. It's not lies, though, not that you'll admit to subpar choices as a possibility in this position.
Let's go through Axelrod's posts, then. I recognize this is a narration of events, but there are some good things mixed in with the bad, so it's worth bringing them up too.
After a couple posts that are NAI, you get hung up on the Mafia empowerment rule here, and go out of your way to make it known. There's another post about mechanics, and then you get hung up on Seppel. You cast doubt on his claim in a way that that attempts to undermine his usefulness to the town, questions whether or not it's true, and then do nothing with it. You use this half-opinion to cast shade on D_V in your next post, and engage with Sir Chris over some stuff. Iso goes painfully out of his way to interact with you here, and you have a halfhearted response that puts off having to publicly share thoughts. Your follow-up with D_V looks less like shading him, but you continue to awkwardly dance around Seppel without actually doing anything about it. For someone calling me out on not engaging, your attempt to do so looks extremely awkward and contrived. You make up with Chris and then continue to doubt Seppel but still not do anything with it.
You then do another mechanics post, promise to do a reread to avoid having to provide reads, another mechanics post, another reread promise. Then, finally, thoughts. All of your buddies are in null (or not on the list since the person WF replaced had done nothing), which is interesting. You state reasons you don't like GJ but it's balanced out by him empowering you. You also only state things you don't like about Iso but leave him out of your scummy/lean scummy reads. This here is Axel's first big post other than his reads list that gives insight. He spends some time on Chris still, but this is neither here nor there, I think? Could be from either mindset. After some notes about shadow, Manders, and WF, he focuses on Seppel again. He states that Sep could be scum outright, but still does little, then blames Sep for not engaging him. He also calls me out here for low content, so I have to cede that to him.
This is a point that indicates he might not be scum, since he speaks out against claiming info, but it's another mechanically-oriented statement and fairly easy to call out. He spends some more time talking about empowering, then chats about D_V's outing of claiming neutral to Tom, which is fine - handled better than the Sep one. He tells Iso to stop with catchup posting, then briefly reviews Anak before Bur self-hammers.
This is just D1, but I don't really have any more time to go over his later days until Monday. He focuses on Seppel without actually taking a stand or directly questioning him, then later says he's "openly speculating that he's scum" and blames Seppel. However, this looks mostly like neutral-hunting, given the actual conviction not present. He then blames Seppel for the lack of engagement. This is really the big thing here other than a lot of mechanical focus.
@Meg: If you have any questions for me as you read through this weekend, I'll try to check as I can between rounds/on break.
I'm going to be very annoyed when it turns out that Meg. is the last mafia and this whole time he's just been trying to decide if one of Cyth. or me is actually a SK.
Incoming post on how/what/when Cyth. claimed this game. Pretty sure there are a bunch of lies in there somewhere.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'm just going through here and compiling all Cyth's posts where he claims stuff. This might get a tiny bit shouty at points.
I don't think anything should make me stand out up to this point. I tend to be a low-quantity poster as town, because I prefer rolling scum or neutral, but the fact that I'm aware of that makes it largely irrelevant. I need to step up my game moving forward and prove my towniness from here.
Said this before, saying again, don't think a "Neutral" Cyth. actually says this, especially if he's trying to conceal his neutralness.
Night 1 Cyth. has supposedly re-directed WF to himself and received the 0 empower ability. This is very relevant considering how they each claim later on. If I had re-directed WF to myself and received that ability, I would be looking at WF the next morning to see how he reacted to being redirected. Because he certainly ought to have had some kind of reaction.
This was Cyth's first post of D2:
@Cyan: Do you think that vote in and of itself is enough to condemn her, and did you have a town/scum read on her prior to the vote?
Scum with WF's ability are going to do 1 of two things with it. They are going to either (1) Pass it around amongst themselves, giving each other empower in secret. Obviously they would not claim to be doing this. Or (2) They would pass it to a Townie in an effort to gain credibility. There are zero other options. WF used this ability N1 (according to Cyth). So one ought to be able to devine his intentions from the way he claims/doesn't claim it. What happened here? HE DIDN'T CLAIM IT. This is what he would do if he successfully gave the ability to a fellow-scumbuddy.
And if he was trying to give it to a Townie, but got re-directed, what would he do then? HE WOULD SAY SOMETHING. He might not necessarily claim exactly what his ability was or what he was trying to do, but HE WOULD HAVE SAID SOMETHING. BECAUSE THE ENTIRE POINT WOULD HAVE BEEN TO GAIN TOWNIE CREDIBILITY.
Why would a scum WF, who was mysteriously re-directed in the night, say nothing? This becomes actually even more important when WF "full claims" later on. He doesn't claim this ability EVEN THEN? Why not? If he knows he got re-directed then HE KNOWS SOMEONE IN THE TOWN KNOWS HE HAS/HAD THIS ABILITY. THEY WOULD THEN KNOW HE WASN'T BEING TRUTHFUL ABOUT HIS "FULL" CLAIM. WHY WOULD HE EVER NOT MENTION THIS? I'LL TELL YOU WHY, HE WOULDN'T, THAT'S WHY.
this was Cyth's 1st comment about WF D2
Also don't like wildfire's post - the first part of his post feels like fishing disguised as a question to "why tom", the second part feels like a smear attempt rather than an actual attempt at engaging Tordeck (who I'm coming to realize requires actual investigation into his motivation since his base play looks scummy in a vacuum), and the third part is wifom.
It's just wrong that he says this and leaves no hint/clue/anything about what he knows about what WF was trying to do last night. Which wasn't even a scummy thing necessarily (like, give someone 1 empower? Wouldn't you want to know WHO WF was actually trying to give it to, to, you know, suss out if it was scummy or not?)
Cythare got 2 empower at the end of D2, which he used N2 to motivate DV. This is the towniest thing Cyth. did the whole game. I was prepared to give him a lot of credit for it, but then it turned out that Cyth. did not know that DV was a Doctor when he motivated him, much less a 2x doctor, and didn't know DV's targets. That makes it much more reasonable for a scum to have done, again, as a way to try and buy credibility.
WF "full" claim came in post #1944. He didn't say anything about the 0 empower ability. Remember, if Cyth is speaking truth, WF KNOWS he got re-directed. Someone out there in the town knows he has/had that ability. How could he not claim it? It's practically instant death. Someone knows he's lying/not telling the complete truth. And it's not even something he would WANT to hide. He would have DEFINITELY claimed that he had that ability and tried to give it to the Towniest possible person, but he got re-directed. 100% he would have done this. There is no downside for him. But he didn't claim it, and, surprise! Cythare never contradicts him. Cyth. even moved his vote away from WF for at least part of that day later.
These guys are on the same team, Meg. Come on.
Cyth. got 2 more empower D3. This, plus the 1 empower he got from WF + the "phantom" 2 empower he received from no one knows who, led to his Day-kill on D4. He's supposedly tapped out now.
Then Cyth got 1 more empower D4 (from Tammy).
Finally, the "full" claim:
Fair enough. Here's my role as a whole.
0 - Initiate a one-way chat. I gain this ability to activate this whenever another member of the town dies. I can activate this whenever I want.
2 - Motivate a non-kill ability of a player that I've established a chat with - this is what I used on D_V Night 2 that let him quad-doc.
3 - Redirect all abilities of a player that I've established a chat with.
5 - The next Day, I gain a daykill that I can use on any player that I've established a chat with.
I also gained another 0 ability Night 2 that lets me give someone 1 empowerment. If I do this, I lose the ability and that player gains that ability.
Last Night, I activated my 5 ability.
Okay, Meg. I guess you know when Cyth. claimed to you his use of the re-direct ability and the point where he claimed that he actually started the game with 3 empower. But he's lying here, yes?
Also, maybe I'm misunderstanding, but how did Cyth both establish a chat with you and also re-direct WF on N1. Only one townie had died at that point. He had to establish a chat with WF to re-direct him (something else never mentioned). Did you never use this chat, Cyth? How did you establish 2 chats with only 1 townie death?
Here's where he mentions for the first time the phantom empowerment:
Totally forgot about this. Am mobile, so will follow up on other stuff later, but will at least respond to Tom's questions. My shot does cost 5 empowerment. I motivated D_V Night 2 with the 2 empowerment I got Day 2. Night 2, I received 3 empowerment, 1 from the ability that I claimed above, and the other 2 that I'' not sure where from, which allowed me to kill toDay with only 2 additional empowerment.
I can't explain where it came from, which I realize looks bad, but it is what it is.
And I find this quote particularly amusing:
What do I have to gain from being truthful about gaining 2 empowerment from an unknown source instead of just lying and saying that I started with 2 empowerment?
Or starting with three even! What did you have to gain Cyth? Please, answer your own question.
N5 Cyth sends me the 0 empower thing. And then the other shoe drops.
Related: Now that I've messaged everyone, it's time to reveal what I've been discussing with Meg through the Night. I'm a neutral who's win condition has been twofold:
1. Connect with every living player
2. Survive to endgame
The redirect ability is actually revealed by Meg. It's not clear to me at what point Cyth actually claimed this to you.
Quote from Meg »
CYTHARE CLAIMED THAT HE STARTED THE GAME WITH 3 EMPOWERMENT. HE ALSO LIED ABOUT WHEN HE RECEIVED THE ABILITY FROM WILDFIRE. HE TOLD ME THAT HE USED HIS 3-EMPOWER ABILITY TO REDIRECT WILDFIRE TO HIM THE NIGHT THAT WILDFIRE USED THAT ABILITY.
Quote from Cyth. »
Quote from Meg. »
yo bongo
one thing that bothers me a little... why did you connect with me?
Because you were calling me scummy for not connecting with you. I figured I'd take the hit and delay my victory so that you wouldn't be going after me for it.
He'd "take the hit and delay my victory" by connecting to someone who wasn't even in the game yet? When his win condition requires him to be connected to all the living players? Seriously? NO ONE WITH THIS WIN CONDITION WHO IS ACTUALLY TRYING TO WIN THE GAME DOES THIS MEG.
And while I never said anything about it, by the time he did claim that was how he was able to empower (instead of his actual ability), I'd already started pushing into both him and GJ and done my interaction analysis. I didn't feel the need to bring up that he'd been lying about it, because I felt that the work I'd put into the thread was going to be sufficient. I should have vigged him instead of Anak, though. I kinda lost sight of this Day 4.
Also pretty sure WF never claimed that he had that 0 cost give someone 1 empower ability. He was saying that his "put someone from the spec forum in the game with 5 empower" was what he meant when he said he had a way to give someone empower.
This and EVERY OTHER THING I'VE POINTED OUT MULTIPLE TIMES should make this the most trivial endgame of all endgames and it's just dumb we're even still here.
Sorry, Meg. Maybe it's harder from where you're sitting, but geez, come on.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Why wouldn't I say the scum/neutral thing? I was trying to explain that that was more of my Town approach because I don't like being Town.
You're describing why my approach with Wildfire was not Town. We're all in agreement that I'm not Town. As Neutral, why would I open myself up for a 1-for-1? Wildfire didn't know that I could redirect, only that he had been redirected to me. I can't speak for his decision to not claim a redirect, but I didn't want to claim that I had redirected him, and outside of outing that I was a redirector, I would have no reason to know that it was his ability that had been redirected to me. I decided to approach Wildfire from a different angle, because I didn't want to out that it was me that redirected him. I have zero interest in setting up a 1-for-1 with scum, because my death doesn't help me at all.
Re D_V: I did not know he was a doc, no. But it was a pretty reasonable assumption. Why wouldn't I just shoot D_V as scum and say I motivated him? D_V would have still likely communicated his motivation to Tomsloger and I'd been able to still get some credit there.
Again, it's not on me to contradict him - I have nothing to gain from taking this avenue to push his lynch.
I'll walk you through all of my connections and when they happened:
D1: Connect with Meg, because I started with a single connection just like everyone else did. Bur is lynched and flips Town (net +1 charge, 1 charge total)
N1: Connect with Wildfire (-1), Sir Chris is NKed (+1). (net 0 charges, 1 charge total)
D2: Connect with D_V (-1), Tordeck killed and flips town (+1), connect with TheIceMan (-1). Lynch is scum. (net -1 charge, 0 charges total)
N2: No deaths. (0 charges)
D3: D_V killed and flips town (+1), connect with Seppel (-1). Lynch is scum. (net 0 charges, 0 charges total)
N3: shadowlancer is killed (+1). (net 1 charge, 1 charge total)
D4: Connect with Anak (-1), kill Anak who flips town (+1). Lynch is scum. (net 0 charges, 1 charge total)
N4: Cyan and Tomsloger are both killed (+2). (net 2 charges, 3 charges total).
D5: Connect with Manders and Axelrod (-2). (net -2 charges, 1 charge left).
At this point, all of the living players are connected with. Meg, this does mean that I miscounted when we were hashing things out N4. I could have connected with everyone D5 regardless of who ended up killed. I got confused because when DoTA replaced zomgarcwind, I sent him a separate PM and counted this separately, and didn't actually bother to ask Azrael for an updated count because I assumed I was correct.
I've discussed connecting with Meg with Meg at length - it would be inherently scummy to decline this and I didn't want the heat and to have to claim early on.
Yes, Wildfire didn't claim that his ability existed. Again, I chose to push him via alternate means.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Yes, well, it's easier to be convincing when you're not trying to hold together a convoluted web of lies with duct tape and magical fairy dust.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
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there's still also the option that you're an SK of sorts btw.
i'd be so mad.
You are slightly misunderstanding. I mean, from where you're sitting (and incidentally from where I'm sitting) the scum got 2 roles with extra killing power in this game. That's kind of ridiculous off the top, but, both WF and Cyth's roles at least had some kind of restrictions on them. WF had to do his out in public and there was at least a chance his target could kill him first. Cyth had to "connect" to someone first, and then it cost (5?) empower to do. And it was also public? I'm not sure about that last one. But I'm just a regular vigilante.
The thing that puts it into the realm of stupid, though, is the idea that in addition to 2 scum extra killing roles, if you believed Cyth, there was also a "Neutral" killing role that can win with the scum, and the Town had ZERO killing roles. That's what you have to believe the set-up was to believe Cyth.
He's not that dumb/crazy. It never made any sense.
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His post on my "silence" was also a weird attempt at a smear. If I’m trying to help the town, why would I message anything to the person I think is the last scum? He wouldn’t have seen me message anything to you.
And his hypothetical is just that – hypothetical. It didn't actually prove or show anything.
I've already explained this part multiple times. Furthermore, there wasn't some crazy amount of risk involved here. Wildfire claimed that his ability that could result in his own death happened during the day:
The second quote was posted ~2 hours after the first where he claimed that he had the ability.
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I didn't even read his remarks as saying he had a "day" ability, so much as, whatever he was doing, that might result in his death, it would "take place" during the day.
Try again?
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You're also ignoring the return on investment argument. How were you realistically expecting to net more than the three empower you were spending on this venture. That's a huge amount to be gambling with with very little info. about what you might get back from it. Completely aside from the "risk of death" part.
i generally agree with bongo's post about axelrod's posts
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I mean, I was completely paranoid about what Cyth. might be able to do. And I still think I'm totally right that if he had 5 empower and could have day-killed today we would have just lost without a speed-lynch. Fortunately that did not turn out to be the case, but I don't think it was an unreasonable concern. I'm going to be super interested in finding out how much empower he actually had this game and what he did with it when it's over.
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but please post lots and try to convince me
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I'm doing this with the presumption that Cyth. is Mafia, which is what makes the most sense to me. I recognize there is a non-zero chance that what he is is actually a 3rd party SK type, but that seems unlikely. He just hasn't demonstrated enough killing ability to be a SK who needs everyone else dead to win. Plus the fact that that would mean the Mafia only started the game with 3 scum main + the possibility of getting a 4th out of the spec. forum, and that has always seemed too low to me. So he's just Mafia.
Remember his claim: Neutral Survivor. Who must also be connected to everyone (living?). And has both a re-direct ability and a day-kill ability (and he can only day-kill the people he's already connected to, which seems a tiny bit counterproductive, but okay).
Here is what should be your first "Red Flag." Seppel "claimed" at #122. He's a "Neutral" who has to move people's passive abilities around and when he's done so he leaves the game.
One would think that this claim would have at least peaked the interest of another "Neutral" role. We were only (at that time) a 16 player game. How many Neutrals could there be? And this one with a very different kind of win condition. I won't say it was impossible, I'm just saying it would be odd, and it should have made Cyth. curious, if not outright suspicious. I mean, some of us (me) were suspicious of the claim anyway because it just seemed wrong. But how did Cyth. react to this claim?
His first post after Seppel's claim, was a PTAP post @#342, so it probably doesn't count. He might not have seen the claim.
But then, he did his big catch-up post in #535, where he's giving reads on everyone, and what does he say about Seppel?
That is the entirety of what he has to say about Seppel. And that's just wrong. That is not what he would do/say if his role was the role he has claimed. He would have said something else. He would have tried to challenge Seppel at least a little. He would have expressed more of an opinion on Seppel than this. Especially if his mind-set was "I want to win with the Town," which of course is what he says. Frankly, it would have been a very opportune time for him to lay some kind of groundwork for his future reveal. If he's thinking ahead at all, which he should have been. That doesn't mean he claims - don't let him create a strawman defense there - there are a dozen ways he could have expressed doubts about Seppel and/or the Neutral claim which would have been consistent, but what he did wasn't.
The other reads he gives in this post are neither here nor there. It was early, and a competent scum is not going to link himself with his buddies in any kind of obvious way. What's of some note is that he spends a lot of this post explaining his "null" reads, which is kind of an odd thing to do. He has nothing to say about anyone "Town" or "Lean Town," but he goes out of his way almost to explain why he doesn't have an opinion on 6 people. I think it's fine to have no strong opinions on people at this point. Even expected. It's just a little strange that he would make those comments while not saying anything about why he thinks the people he's listed as Town are Town. I think that shows a somewhat defensive mindset. As opposed to his trying to persuade anyone of anything. He also ends with the two easiest/most generally suspected people on the bottom of his list, so that was convenient.
Cyth. is a Neutral! He doesn't have an opinion about this? Come on. Cyth's comments are so measured. He doesn't say Tordeck is wrong. He doesn't say he disagrees, or agrees. He doesn't give his own opinion on DV. He just says:
So, maybe he's just trying to get a read on Tordeck here, and just missing the opportunity to say something about Neutrals. Could be. But the follow-up in that case is very weak. Almost non-existent. He asks Tordeck one more question (that I can see) and then...nothing. I know this is getting nit-picky, but it feels like, if he cared about what he was asking then Cyth. would either (1) follow-up, or, if he got what he was looking for, then (2) express an opinion. He just kind of left it there with Tordeck.
I also feel like Cyth. would/should have had something to say about my attacks on Seppel. Agree/Disagree? Something? He was just too...uninterested in Seppel?
I'm leaving this here for now, and not checking against his later claim, but when Seppel is putting out the call for Empowerment requests, this is what Cyth. says:
Maybe that makes sense, but maybe not.
He was then completely absent for the D1 lynch.
Then N1. This is where Cyth. decides he's going to use up all his Empower and re-direct Wildfire's action to himself. What is Wildfire's action? As far as Cyth knows, this is exactly everything WF said about it D1:
That was literally it.
And based on that, he has claimed, he decided to spend three empowerment to re-direct WF to himself N1, in the hope that this was going to get him "permanent" empowerment for the future. And without any concerns that he might just die from whatever WF was doing.
Man, I should just be able to stop right here. This makes NO SENSE, Meg. It never did. No one in his right mind makes the kind of assumptions Cyth. claims he was making here. Where does WF say anything about "permanent" empowerment? Why would you assume he'd even be using that ability? Especially when he said he'd be using the other one? It's completely stupid.
But, see, he wants/needs to explain how he ended up with WF's ability. Because wouldn't WF want to be giving that Empower away to a fellow scum? This is free empower they have that they can give to each other in secret. Of course they are going to want to give it to themselves. Or if not. If not, it means WF wants to give it to a Townie so he can get some kind of goodwill out of it. Which means he would be wanting to CLAIM DOING IT. But, of course, that never happened. This whole sequence is just nothing but lies.
As is the entire progression of Cyth's claim. I'll maybe try to do that part next.
Let's go through Axelrod's posts, then. I recognize this is a narration of events, but there are some good things mixed in with the bad, so it's worth bringing them up too.
After a couple posts that are NAI, you get hung up on the Mafia empowerment rule here, and go out of your way to make it known. There's another post about mechanics, and then you get hung up on Seppel. You cast doubt on his claim in a way that that attempts to undermine his usefulness to the town, questions whether or not it's true, and then do nothing with it. You use this half-opinion to cast shade on D_V in your next post, and engage with Sir Chris over some stuff. Iso goes painfully out of his way to interact with you here, and you have a halfhearted response that puts off having to publicly share thoughts. Your follow-up with D_V looks less like shading him, but you continue to awkwardly dance around Seppel without actually doing anything about it. For someone calling me out on not engaging, your attempt to do so looks extremely awkward and contrived. You make up with Chris and then continue to doubt Seppel but still not do anything with it.
You then do another mechanics post, promise to do a reread to avoid having to provide reads, another mechanics post, another reread promise. Then, finally, thoughts. All of your buddies are in null (or not on the list since the person WF replaced had done nothing), which is interesting. You state reasons you don't like GJ but it's balanced out by him empowering you. You also only state things you don't like about Iso but leave him out of your scummy/lean scummy reads. This here is Axel's first big post other than his reads list that gives insight. He spends some time on Chris still, but this is neither here nor there, I think? Could be from either mindset. After some notes about shadow, Manders, and WF, he focuses on Seppel again. He states that Sep could be scum outright, but still does little, then blames Sep for not engaging him. He also calls me out here for low content, so I have to cede that to him.
This is a point that indicates he might not be scum, since he speaks out against claiming info, but it's another mechanically-oriented statement and fairly easy to call out. He spends some more time talking about empowering, then chats about D_V's outing of claiming neutral to Tom, which is fine - handled better than the Sep one. He tells Iso to stop with catchup posting, then briefly reviews Anak before Bur self-hammers.
This is just D1, but I don't really have any more time to go over his later days until Monday. He focuses on Seppel without actually taking a stand or directly questioning him, then later says he's "openly speculating that he's scum" and blames Seppel. However, this looks mostly like neutral-hunting, given the actual conviction not present. He then blames Seppel for the lack of engagement. This is really the big thing here other than a lot of mechanical focus.
@Meg: If you have any questions for me as you read through this weekend, I'll try to check as I can between rounds/on break.
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Incoming post on how/what/when Cyth. claimed this game. Pretty sure there are a bunch of lies in there somewhere.
Said this before, saying again, don't think a "Neutral" Cyth. actually says this, especially if he's trying to conceal his neutralness.
Night 1 Cyth. has supposedly re-directed WF to himself and received the 0 empower ability. This is very relevant considering how they each claim later on. If I had re-directed WF to myself and received that ability, I would be looking at WF the next morning to see how he reacted to being redirected. Because he certainly ought to have had some kind of reaction.
This was Cyth's first post of D2:
This was WF's first post of D2
#1126
Nothing.
Scum with WF's ability are going to do 1 of two things with it. They are going to either (1) Pass it around amongst themselves, giving each other empower in secret. Obviously they would not claim to be doing this. Or (2) They would pass it to a Townie in an effort to gain credibility. There are zero other options. WF used this ability N1 (according to Cyth). So one ought to be able to devine his intentions from the way he claims/doesn't claim it. What happened here? HE DIDN'T CLAIM IT. This is what he would do if he successfully gave the ability to a fellow-scumbuddy.
And if he was trying to give it to a Townie, but got re-directed, what would he do then? HE WOULD SAY SOMETHING. He might not necessarily claim exactly what his ability was or what he was trying to do, but HE WOULD HAVE SAID SOMETHING. BECAUSE THE ENTIRE POINT WOULD HAVE BEEN TO GAIN TOWNIE CREDIBILITY.
Why would a scum WF, who was mysteriously re-directed in the night, say nothing? This becomes actually even more important when WF "full claims" later on. He doesn't claim this ability EVEN THEN? Why not? If he knows he got re-directed then HE KNOWS SOMEONE IN THE TOWN KNOWS HE HAS/HAD THIS ABILITY. THEY WOULD THEN KNOW HE WASN'T BEING TRUTHFUL ABOUT HIS "FULL" CLAIM. WHY WOULD HE EVER NOT MENTION THIS? I'LL TELL YOU WHY, HE WOULDN'T, THAT'S WHY.
this was Cyth's 1st comment about WF D2
It's just wrong that he says this and leaves no hint/clue/anything about what he knows about what WF was trying to do last night. Which wasn't even a scummy thing necessarily (like, give someone 1 empower? Wouldn't you want to know WHO WF was actually trying to give it to, to, you know, suss out if it was scummy or not?)
Cythare got 2 empower at the end of D2, which he used N2 to motivate DV. This is the towniest thing Cyth. did the whole game. I was prepared to give him a lot of credit for it, but then it turned out that Cyth. did not know that DV was a Doctor when he motivated him, much less a 2x doctor, and didn't know DV's targets. That makes it much more reasonable for a scum to have done, again, as a way to try and buy credibility.
WF "full" claim came in post #1944. He didn't say anything about the 0 empower ability. Remember, if Cyth is speaking truth, WF KNOWS he got re-directed. Someone out there in the town knows he has/had that ability. How could he not claim it? It's practically instant death. Someone knows he's lying/not telling the complete truth. And it's not even something he would WANT to hide. He would have DEFINITELY claimed that he had that ability and tried to give it to the Towniest possible person, but he got re-directed. 100% he would have done this. There is no downside for him. But he didn't claim it, and, surprise! Cythare never contradicts him. Cyth. even moved his vote away from WF for at least part of that day later.
These guys are on the same team, Meg. Come on.
Cyth. got 2 more empower D3. This, plus the 1 empower he got from WF + the "phantom" 2 empower he received from no one knows who, led to his Day-kill on D4. He's supposedly tapped out now.
Then Cyth got 1 more empower D4 (from Tammy).
Finally, the "full" claim:
Okay, Meg. I guess you know when Cyth. claimed to you his use of the re-direct ability and the point where he claimed that he actually started the game with 3 empower. But he's lying here, yes?
Also, maybe I'm misunderstanding, but how did Cyth both establish a chat with you and also re-direct WF on N1. Only one townie had died at that point. He had to establish a chat with WF to re-direct him (something else never mentioned). Did you never use this chat, Cyth? How did you establish 2 chats with only 1 townie death?
Here's where he mentions for the first time the phantom empowerment:
And I find this quote particularly amusing:
Or starting with three even! What did you have to gain Cyth? Please, answer your own question.
N5 Cyth sends me the 0 empower thing. And then the other shoe drops.
The redirect ability is actually revealed by Meg. It's not clear to me at what point Cyth actually claimed this to you.
He'd "take the hit and delay my victory" by connecting to someone who wasn't even in the game yet? When his win condition requires him to be connected to all the living players? Seriously? NO ONE WITH THIS WIN CONDITION WHO IS ACTUALLY TRYING TO WIN THE GAME DOES THIS MEG.
Also pretty sure WF never claimed that he had that 0 cost give someone 1 empower ability. He was saying that his "put someone from the spec forum in the game with 5 empower" was what he meant when he said he had a way to give someone empower.
This and EVERY OTHER THING I'VE POINTED OUT MULTIPLE TIMES should make this the most trivial endgame of all endgames and it's just dumb we're even still here.
Sorry, Meg. Maybe it's harder from where you're sitting, but geez, come on.
Why wouldn't I say the scum/neutral thing? I was trying to explain that that was more of my Town approach because I don't like being Town.
You're describing why my approach with Wildfire was not Town. We're all in agreement that I'm not Town. As Neutral, why would I open myself up for a 1-for-1? Wildfire didn't know that I could redirect, only that he had been redirected to me. I can't speak for his decision to not claim a redirect, but I didn't want to claim that I had redirected him, and outside of outing that I was a redirector, I would have no reason to know that it was his ability that had been redirected to me. I decided to approach Wildfire from a different angle, because I didn't want to out that it was me that redirected him. I have zero interest in setting up a 1-for-1 with scum, because my death doesn't help me at all.
Re D_V: I did not know he was a doc, no. But it was a pretty reasonable assumption. Why wouldn't I just shoot D_V as scum and say I motivated him? D_V would have still likely communicated his motivation to Tomsloger and I'd been able to still get some credit there.
Again, it's not on me to contradict him - I have nothing to gain from taking this avenue to push his lynch.
I'll walk you through all of my connections and when they happened:
D1: Connect with Meg, because I started with a single connection just like everyone else did. Bur is lynched and flips Town (net +1 charge, 1 charge total)
N1: Connect with Wildfire (-1), Sir Chris is NKed (+1). (net 0 charges, 1 charge total)
D2: Connect with D_V (-1), Tordeck killed and flips town (+1), connect with TheIceMan (-1). Lynch is scum. (net -1 charge, 0 charges total)
N2: No deaths. (0 charges)
D3: D_V killed and flips town (+1), connect with Seppel (-1). Lynch is scum. (net 0 charges, 0 charges total)
N3: shadowlancer is killed (+1). (net 1 charge, 1 charge total)
D4: Connect with Anak (-1), kill Anak who flips town (+1). Lynch is scum. (net 0 charges, 1 charge total)
N4: Cyan and Tomsloger are both killed (+2). (net 2 charges, 3 charges total).
D5: Connect with Manders and Axelrod (-2). (net -2 charges, 1 charge left).
At this point, all of the living players are connected with. Meg, this does mean that I miscounted when we were hashing things out N4. I could have connected with everyone D5 regardless of who ended up killed. I got confused because when DoTA replaced zomgarcwind, I sent him a separate PM and counted this separately, and didn't actually bother to ask Azrael for an updated count because I assumed I was correct.
I've discussed connecting with Meg with Meg at length - it would be inherently scummy to decline this and I didn't want the heat and to have to claim early on.
Yes, Wildfire didn't claim that his ability existed. Again, I chose to push him via alternate means.
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Also, not a convoluted web of lies, but w/e.
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