MTG Salvation

Proph - I am only playing one other game at this moment on another site. I am only not signed up for any other games because I am just too busy. I just wanted to clear that up. I never thought I'd become the kind of person to be a completely useless confirmed town person, I've just been really busy.

Does your read on me shatter if I admit that I was considering voting you today even though you were cleared by a limited shot cop and godfathers really shouldn't exist with limited shot cops?

Quote from Nachomamma8 »

Does your read on me shatter if I admit that I was considering voting you today even though you were cleared by a limited shot cop and godfathers really shouldn't exist with limited shot cops?

Is this a serious question or are you trolling me because it doesn't make sense with any of the posts you've made today. What is your read on Tom?

~~~

I've made this post three times and it's been lot each times so sorry I think I'm forgetting something. I'VE FORGOTTEN EVERYTHING.

Oh i remember - fable why are you asking me about my read on nacho? I read a post at mafia universe where you think that we get each other's alignments wrong more than people realize, so why are you ready to sheep my read there?

unvote, vote: axelrod

Gentle reminder that the deadline expires in like 2 or 3 days or something, I forget but can check later.

Feel free to request an extension.

Quote from Tammy »

Oh i remember - fable why are you asking me about my read on nacho? I read a post at mafia universe where you think that we get each other's alignments wrong more than people realize, so why are you ready to sheep my read there?

It's interesting that you're focusing on nacho here. I was sheeping both your clear of nacho AND Tom. Is the fact you haven't mentioned Tom at all mean that you think he's scum now? All I wanna know is do you think from your point of view the game is solved?

You didn't really answer the question, you know.

She asked why you were ready to sheep her read on me when at MU you said that we read each other worse than people realize.

I will ask for the

Deadline Extension Please

if no one else is going to.

Meanwhile, I'll just be over here....

Quote from Nachomamma8 »

You didn't really answer the question, you know.

She asked why you were ready to sheep her read on me when at MU you said that we read each other worse than people realize.

I wasn't actually ready to sheep tammy's reads. I was providing a hypothetical in which if I look at tammy's reads the game is solved by process of elimination. Again all I wanna know is does tammy think the game is solved or do some people need to be reassessed, that's it.

Deadline Extension, please.

sigh

Quote from Fable07 »

Quote from Tammy »

Oh i remember - fable why are you asking me about my read on nacho? I read a post at mafia universe where you think that we get each other's alignments wrong more than people realize, so why are you ready to sheep my read there?

It's interesting that you're focusing on nacho here. I was sheeping both your clear of nacho AND Tom. Is the fact you haven't mentioned Tom at all mean that you think he's scum now? All I wanna know is do you think from your point of view the game is solved?

You didn't make a post at mafiauniverse where you doubted my ability to read Tom. It struck me as odd that you would just ask about my read on nacho, and mention sheeping it, if you doubt my ability to read him. It felt weird because it didn't have any of the doubt present.

We are in lylo, I'm going to reassess everyone (and yes, I've reassessed nacho, that end of day one comes from town him, not scum). I'm not sure what to think about the counter claim situation because the way he did it reads rather town. He wasn't in danger of getting lynched yesterday and if he was he could have made up something else that wouldn't be a counter; I'm quite sure he's smart enough to do that. Now when I was in the Porn Supremacy a few years ago and did some research on basic games I found that town tends to get three or four roles, so it's definitely not unheard of for their to be four town roles.

Does untargettable mean that he was untargettable to the cop too? Because if so, I guess that could be a type of nuanced role where it's not completely unheard of for there to be a plain bulletproof. Two-shot cop, two-shot vig, one town untargettable to both, one town untargettable to the vig only but can be confirmed town and harder to kill? I could see that possibility.

I tried reading the other night but it was after a mountain of margaritas and I passed out reading and don't remember a thing I read So i need to start catching up from the start again.

deadline extension please

I don't doubt your ability to read nacho and you're still the first person I ask about nacho reads, it just seems like people expect 100% accuracy from you (or at least 90%) and I think that's fairly unreasonable.

Also I would assume untargettable means unable to be investigated by the cop, yes.

I'm gonna reread ax and prophy and see what I come up with.

deadline extension please

That's a majority requesting an extension.

The new deadline expires on October 1st at 0000 hours.

I don't believe I will be granting another extension this game, what with the No Lynch on Day 1 due to inactivity, so use your extra time wisely.

I dunno I think we lynch tom here still.

on quick reread, I think it could be tom/prophy but we'll see if we even get to tomorrow.

Quote from Fable07 »

I dunno I think we lynch tom here still.

on quick reread, I think it could be tom/prophy but we'll see if we even get to tomorrow.

Proph is your top choice for second scum, then?

What about Proph did you dislike specifically?

Quote from Nachomamma8 »

What about Proph did you dislike specifically?

The part where prophy spent a ton of time hard defending vaimes to the point where he basically cleared him. I know I said before there's no way I don't vote tom before but I'm beginning to rethink that.

its almost always proph/axel.

*pokes head in*

Nothing to see here

*leaves again*







Seriously, I guess I'm going to go make that case, because this is apparently a lot more of a struggle for everyone else than it is for me. I ought to have some time tomorrow.

not that i have anything to add, but look at the scumteam just promising that theyll do something.

Vote for axel. You'll get so much towncred

Votecount:

tomsloger (1): Axelrod
Axelrod (1): tomsloger


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

-

I see you guys are making excellent use of the extension.

...

lol let's do it.

vote:prophylaxis

I've been sitting here a long time. Got up and left and came back again. I very much want to just plant my flag on "There's no way Iso would make this the set-up" and, then, if we lose on those grounds - because Iso made an Untargetable Town and a Bulletproof Town in the same Mini game, along with a Cop and a Vig. - then, I get to blame the Mod. and not poor reads.

I'm going over all Tom's stuff now, and it's just a huge slog. And I'm not even getting anything, like, a smoking gun. It's like I felt early, most of Tom's stuff comes across as pretty genuine and natural sounding.

The biggest red flag, in hindsight, is his lack of scum reads or much scum-hunting in general. This is probably the biggest thing. He's pretty much focused on one guy at a time, and barely looked elsewhere for possible scum. D1 it was all Seppel. Seppel, Seppel, Seppel. Until he apparently wavered at the very end (because of a GIF?), and kind of slid over to Proph. D2 it's all Proph. Proph, Proph Proph. And he obviously hasn't come off that one still - except for deciding I am scum with Proph because process of elimination? And me not being willing to consider that Tom could still be Town here. His secondary scum reads have been few and far between and fairly weak besides. Buuuuuut, it's not like he's the only one.

Tom wasn't interested in Vaimes at all. He didn't "Town" read him per-se. Even said he wasn't getting quite the same feels as he had from Town-Vaimes in the past. But never acted on any of that, and pretty much dismissed Seppel's argument's against him. It wasn't until I made my Vaimes post that Tom was like "Damn. Ok." Which is actually one of the worst posts of his that he's made. That one didn't feel nearly so genuine to me.

His role name doesn't quite fit like the others. A very minor thing.

His whole early game logic - Anyone who votes for either of Tammy/Matowar is scum. Because it's either (1) scum trying to get a necessary mislynch, or (2) scum bussing one of their own. That was how he decided on Seppel (and secondarily Huntz, at least for a while). That's just so terrible, but he claimed he was serious.

I mean, all logic and common sense and decency says this is the correct lynch.

I re-read Mindreaver too, just to see who he was looking at and if that might inform why he got targeted. This is a very dicey thing to do because scum just do weird stuff when it comes to who they pick to kill, and they might have picked him based on his role name alone, guessing it was a power role of some kind. He was suspicious of Vaimes. So that could be part of it right there, but he was much more on Fable, to the point of pushing a Fable/ZDS/Citric scum-team at the end of the day. Then he argued with Nacho at the very end of the day. If neither of Fable or Nacho is scum, then those reads are just totally wrong, and Mindreaver seems like a super-weird choice for them. Was it just his name and power-role fishing? Were they hoping people would look at his terrible reads (like this) and give them more weight?

This is why it's just so dicey.

But here's my crazy Tom second-guessing, though. If Tom is Town, the scum have this. It's game over. There's no way we can possibly win. So the scum literally don't have to do anything else this game except not f--- themselves up by posting something scummy. Which is, kind of, what it feels like is happening exactly right now. No one is doing anything. Whereas with a scum-Tom, I would have thought the remaining Town would have been voting much more quickly/easily.

I will respond to one part of that

It broke my heart that vaimes was scum. I still don't understand what seppel saw, but idk. I guess it was right.

Quote from Fable07 »

lol let's do it.

vote:prophylaxis

let's wagon
unvote, vote proph
(super scummy vote movement)

Gentle reminder that the deadline expires in approximately 9.5 hours.

Vote: Tomsloger

I'll be catching up in full today, but this is an obvious vote that should get done. I'm on my way home at this very moment, so you should start to see progress in about 2 hours.

Am home now, will start reading shortly.

But before that, initial impressions of what people have been doing lately:

Tom, as town, has the responsibility of clearing himself in a position like this. If Tom is town, then we are currently in a position where the most obvious lynch is the game-losing one and it's a position we are in because of his counterclaim. The biggest reason why I'm completely comfortable lynching him now is because he had every opportunity to fight back and turn the tide and he didn't take any of them; I've seen Tom fighting as a newbie against two guilties against him and his performance here doesn't have anywhere near the heart; chances he is town are slim.

And it makes sense: motivation for him fighting as scum and town are completely different. As town, things might feel hopeless, but he knows they aren't; he has the truth behind him, there are two people he can force into looking bad, there is another narrative that exists that three people in the game are looking for. As scum, it would be really cool if he turned the tide here, but it's not necessary. He's done his job by netting the ZDS mislynch that scum very likely wouldn't have been able to get any other way, he has a scumbuddy that is probably in decent position to win it, the drive and fire to push and win simply isn't here and it's extraordinarily hard to pull it out of your ass when other people aren't engaging and making the game interesting.

Axelrod correctly noted that scum have absolutely no reason to do anything ridiculous in order to win the game if tom is town, which, hilariously enough, is one of the best reasons why his behavior today looks town. Axelrod is the only player who has shown any sort of interesting insight into the game, who has shown any sort of frustration with the game state and has tried to alter it; there's really absolutely no reason to attempt to strongarm the Tom lynch through for scum at this point and can't see Axelrod in particular losing his cool and pushing for the tom lynch prematurely in this situation.

Proph hasn't done a lot in the way of classic analysis, but he's experienced plenty of paranoia and emotional depth; have thrown out a lot of weird feelers in a way that would be foolish if he was scum positioning himself for the endgame. I'll probably talk a hell of a lot more about Proph later since he's apparently being set up to be the endgame mislynch.

Fable's posting has dropped off the face of the planet for a long, long time. His response in LyLo is to throw out feelers on me (low content, lurky poster who hasn't been talked about much) and push for a Proph lynch despite the whole counterclaim situation (which he hasn't commented on or explained his position on). If Fable was town going against the grain in such a big way, I'd expect him to be a bit louder, a bit less subdued about it.

If I was basing everything on this LyLo alone, I'd kill Tom today, Fable tomorrow.
Luckily, I'm not; I'll be making tea and drinking tea and rereading the game until I'm done (so bumps are very much appreciated at this point).

Normally I'd agree with that nacho
It is my responsibility to not get lynched ftl.

But, like, I did my job. I'm not being lynched because of anything I said.

I'm not gonna argue mafia theory/setup balancing beyond "well this game has an untargetable and a bulletproof"

Idk what to tell yall if you don't believe me.

Some of the sorts of things that I'm looking for early:

-Interactions between Tom + Vaimes + Other People.
-Why was Fable so townread early?
-Tapping/Tom interactions in particular, as well as bringing the focus back on TS's early play
-General reads on Tammy/Fable/Axel/TS.

The first of anything that stands out to me in a significant way is TS's #97, which is most likely the first time that someone did something significant in the game. While I didn't think his opening was anything particularly revolutionary, I didn't think he pulled any punches in his analysis of tom (talked about the weirdness in claiming and the weirdness of having strong opinions but then not really). I also thought that their interaction stood out in a big way from Tom's with either Vaimes or Fable; Tom made what was essentially an empty vote on Fable in an attempt to "read him" and only bothered to banter fairly weakly with Vaimes.

Axelrod's response to this opening was completely different from mine for reasons that I don't really understand.

This initial and immediate attack on TS from Vaimes (that I'm quoting instead of linking because it is so overwhelmingly important to me):

Quote from Vaimes »

The part where you went looking for scum motivation and nothing happened? Looks like busy work. I know you can do better, so why aren't you?

It's 2016 and I still don't understand why people are afraid of using their votes.................when you can change them................whenever you want................

Also, calm down. I'd like to make it through an entire game with you without either of us losing our minds.

I don't think this is how a scumpartner addresses his partner at the very beginning of his interaction, especially when that scum is uncomfortable in his mafia shoes and especially when his interactions with scumpartner #2 began as "you scum bro? no? okay.". I don't think Vaimes would be as concerned about the personality clash if they were scumpartners, and so the argument that this is a genuine response to his first couple of posts is terrible.

Quote from Vaimes »

In the interest of nipping this conversation in the bud, because I totally know where it's going (the answer is "south"), how about we stop interacting with each other for a bit?

And, if they were scumpartners attempting to fabricate an interaction between the two of them, then pulling out the "let's stop interacting!" card makes absolutely no sense; if they were having a personality clash, I'd bet my left nut and Tom's right nut that Vaimes would push the envelope a bit so that people would assume that there is absolutely no chance they could be scum together. Putting out the fire this early doesn't make any sense whatsoever if this is an interaction happening between two scum****s.

Quote from Fable07 »

Seppel's entire argument against tammy was fluff. He spent more time talking about him name (which doesn't follow the same pattern the rest of the names do btw) than actually saying why he thought tammy was scum and then backed off when he saw it wasn't going anywhere.

Noting that Fable's opening thus far has been pretty consistently underwhelming; he votes Seppel for a poor argument against a townie, which is one of the easiest positions for scum to adopt (pushing someone for being wrong when you know they are wrong is, unsurprisingly, not hard at all).

This interaction with Vaimes is also setting off some "alarms". Quoted what I'm talking about below for the reader's convenience:
My biggest problem with these interactions with Vaimes is that Fable is slotting him down as a strong scum read, he's talking about him like he thinks he's really really scummy and suddenly the case has more substance than his push on Seppel - but he's still voting Seppel. One of the interaction tells that works is finding two people who should be voting and pushing each other based on what they're saying but instead are just talking to each other; this is a perfect example of this.

This is also one of those things that I'm quoting and not linking even when it makes my post horrendously long because it is extraordinarily important to me:

Quote from tomsloger »

theres a part of my head that thinks vaimes/tapping is scum/scum and theyre just trying to continue their arguing from other games.

i guess it could be one or the other, but it really seems like neither of them had any desire to change the status quo here

This isn't a scumbuddy's response to Vaimes/Tapping. A scumbuddy's response to Vaimes/Tapping is to either ignore it completely or continuously fuel that the animosity was real, it is under no circumstances to undermine it in the sketchy way above.

206 finds Fable tying Vaimes to Axelrod, but still not voting Vaimes.

TS's strong push against Axelrod in 216 is yet another point to TS-genuine-town.

This is Fable responding to the "chainsawing Tammy" charge from ZDS's mouth. It isn't a very good response; his elaboration is essentially that "Seppel and Vaimes's attacks suck!" (doesn't address the original point at all) and also he thinks ZDS so there is clearly some direction to his attacks (bad response especially when he hasn't mentioned ZDS's name before; there doesn't seem to be any commitment to the read and instead it just serves as a "look, I AM doing other things!" type of thing.

TS's attack on ZDS for defending Axelrod is amazingly well done if he's scum and faking that much conviction on a townie; the "good ole boys" network comment in particular drips with genuine conviction.

Quote from Fable07 »

No I'm saying I wouldn't attack anyone without having a solid reasoning first. Your attack on tammy obviously wasn't thought through in any meaningful way which is why it failed.

This is a lie.
Every person who has played the game of mafia seriously more than two times has attacked someone without solid reasoning. You aren't so mechanical player to the point where you don't understand throwing ***** to the wall to see what sticks.

258 is absolutely bizarre when he's spent the rest of his time attacking the people on the Tammy wagon. Hyperfocusing on Tammy for lurking is also strange when I hadn't really posted more than Tammy at that point and when Matowar was lurking his ass of like a champ and when Mindreaver made one decent size post and then vanished and Huntzilla said nothing beyond "storm, I'll return later!". Fable framed his Tammy attack as some sort of "I hate lurkers!!!" personality type but that isn't reflected in his suspects at ALL and it's not reflected in his personality elsewhere at all.

This post is similarly terrible. Three hours before this post, he said "I have Tammy on a timer, so I'm just seeing what she's gonna do", then Tammy says she's not going to be around, and suddenly time is out and Fable is voting Tammy because lurking despite very recently saying that he never votes anyone without having a really really good reason to do so.

Posting this now so I don't lose it all and so I can tell Proph who I know is around to come on and vote Tom.

Quote from tomsloger »

Normally I'd agree with that nacho
It is my responsibility to not get lynched ftl.

But, like, I did my job. I'm not being lynched because of anything I said.

I'm not gonna argue mafia theory/setup balancing beyond "well this game has an untargetable and a bulletproof"

Idk what to tell yall if you don't believe me.

I'm lynching you because of your behavior and because of your behavior alone.
I was completely ready to go to bat for you at the beginning of the day, but you let me down.

I don't mean to be harsh right now, but if we lose, it's your fault. Proph and Axelrod will blame it on Iso because they don't believe in critical thinking when claims are on the table, but early!Tom used to push back against claims partially because so many people like to use them and ignore scumhunting and I'm probably not going to buy a "oh, I've been getting worse" argument from you.

But, luckily for you, we still have 6 hours and 45 minutes for you to show me why you're town and why I'm completely lost in Crazyville; your job isn't done if you're town until you've drawn a bullet for being a threat to the scum team so I'm not really sure why you're arguing otherwise.

If you're lost for things to say, reconcile the TS-Vaimes interaction with this Proph-Vaimes scumteam I'm supposed to be purchasing from you. You said that they were probably just trying to continue their arguments from off-site and other games in order to make themselves seem unaligned, but their respective behaviors around their argument don't really make sense with that.

You can also talk to me about your Fable read; I've outlined some things that I very sincerely dislike from Fable's early game, so it'd help me if you could defend the hell out of him for me.

On Fable:
Read the interaction with Seppel, starting here. The context of that interaction is that Fable was scumreading Seppel for extraordinarily similar reasons and his interaction with Vaimes just seems like empty talking, which is a strong scumpartner tell.

Then, read backwards from this post; Fable goes from chainsawing all of Tammy's attackers to putting her on a bull***** timer and then voting her (and completely forgetting about Vaimes in the process). His excuse for this is that he hates lurkers, but decides to go after Tammy while ignoring the 5+ people very obviously lurking in the thread at the same time. This isn't a town thought process, this is scum very sloppily going back on someone they were pseudo-defending before to make an easy vote.

Nacho did you ever look at TS' interactions in mindscrew after finding out he had a team?

Quote from tomsloger »

Nacho did you ever look at TS' interactions in mindscrew after finding out he had a team?

Nope.

The way nacho is ignoring the way I pushed the vaimes lynched with seppel is actually unbelievable.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Ultimately I want to get this lynch right Today, and look at the gamestate with a fresh pair of eyes Tomorrow if tom does indeed flip scum.

I see what you mean by empty talking, but the thing that stuck out when I reread that specific interaction was how Fable specifically referred to Vaimes as "setting off the alarm bells". That seems like unusual phrasing for scum/scum.

Also tom strongly defended Fable after watching him play in a few turbos. Normally I'd consider that a decent indication that tom and Fable aren't knowingly aligned together, but thinking back on it, it might be power wolfing.

I think I'm OK with your tom/Fable/Vaimes proposal (I wanted to put Axel in there as well, but his post yesterday was full of critical thought) but I should be able to reread the thread overNight assuming that tom flips scum.

Saying that "setting off the alarm bells" is not likely to be scum-scum interaction seems like you're seeing what you want to see to me.
If your point is that the phrasing is strong, then yes, that's my point too; why the hell wasn't Fable voting and pushing for Vaimes there?

Power wolfing doesn't really seem like a really ridiculous proposition for a tom-Fable team to me. Tom says "hey, Fable, let's defend the hell out of each other" and then they... defend the hell out of each other.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Quote from Fable07 »

Meh I'm pretty ride or die with Tom at this point and don't want to see him lynched so w/e

UNVOTE

proph

Quote from Fable07 »

Partly because I think he's the towniest person here besides tammy. Partly because I'm pocketed.

Nacho do you really think this is an interaction that comes from scum/scum?

Absolutely.
He says that he struggles with understanding Tom and so the deep level of trust makes absolutely no sense, and he has made zero attempts to protect or explain his strong townread despite having it.

Do you think Fable's play looks like someone who has a really really strong townread on someone he's not typically able to read?

Also finding problems with Fable's response to Tammy's outburst starting here. His initial response is to say that he thinks her emotional outburst is "unwarranted" (which seems unnatural and pretty heavily mudslingy in and of itself), but then his followup when I unvote is to immediately change positions and go after me. The scum motivation I can see for a move like this is due to misreading flow; he thought I was going to push a wagon on Tammy, and then when it became clear that I wasn't, he backed off and flexed to push towards me. His vote on me again seems unnatural because he's giving up everything that he pushed on before to pursue me based on a contradiction.

Vaimes-TS mindmeld Tom vote (302) seems like one of those things that are pretty unlikely to happen as scumpartners.

327 the context of TS's replace out seems odd if he were scum; seems strange he would pick this particular time if scum (shenanigan interactions with Tom + Vaimes) to replace out, and doesn't seem like it would be based on frustration with his scumpartners since the Vaimes-him thing cooled down a very long time ago.

Fable comes full circle and again thinks that it is Vaimes/Seppel in 335. Guess who he ends up voting?



I'm posting this segment now because I'd like to emphasize Fable typing everyone he can possible with Vaimes and still not voting Vaimes. What do you think is happening here if he's town? Do you think there's a reason he's voting Seppel over Vaimes I haven't picked up on? Can you give me a reason why he keeps bringing Vaimes's name up?

Quote from Fable07 »

The way nacho is ignoring the way I pushed the vaimes lynched with seppel is actually unbelievable.

How do you expect me to comment on the way you pushed the Vaimes lynch with Seppel if I haven't gotten there yet?
Did you not notice that I was rereading?

I've provided ample points for you to address; jump right in!

Tom, were you going somewhere with your Mindscrew question or were you going back to huddling in the corner waiting for me to lynch you?