The Prisoner's Dilemma
An open setup for 7 players
Welcome to this fun and exciting Micro game!
Here are the rules:
6 players are Prisoners: Prisoner
Abilities:
1. You may vote.
2. At Night, you may choose to Cooperate or Defect. If you Defect, and no other player chooses to Defect in the same Night, you win the game and leave immediately. However, if ANY NUMBER of other players chooses to Defect as well, all players who chose to Defect will be killed. If you submit no action you are assumed to be Cooperating.
1 of you is the Serial Killer Serial Killer
Abilities
1. You may vote.
2. At Night, you may choose to kill another player.
Rules:
1. Standard Mafia rules apply
2. No Day deadlines, but I expect a quick pace of play. Nights will last twenty four hours maximum.
3. The game begins with a no-kill Night zero.
4. The order of operations for this game is as follows:
Check for players who have chosen to Defect.
If multiple Defections, resolve those kills. If there was only one, note that player.
Resolve SK's Night kill.
If the single Defecting player noted in (2) is still alive, resolve victory condition.
5. Prisoners can win by either through Defecting or by lynching the Serial Killer. If a Prisoner has been killed from Defecting, they can still win if the Serial Killer is lynched.
6. Serial Killer wins if they control the lynch/are the last player alive/etc.
This is not a prisoner's dilemma. Two differences allow us to change the odds in our favor
>ability to communicate in advance of our decision
>SK's inability to defect
This allows us to use it as an investigation.
In addition to the lynch today, we must choose a single person to defect.
This choice should be random, so as not to incentivize drawing scumreads, and should be chosen after the lynch to maximize odds.
If no one defects, we chose the SK and lynch them Day 2.
If all choices are random, odds of picking SK for lynch or defection are 1/6+1/5, or .366666... for a town win.
Each town player has an additional 1/5 chance of an immediate individual win by being chosen as defector.
Night 1, a logical SK will kill a different player than the one chosen to defect. I have performed these calculations, but the SK is welcome to try.
This brings us to Day 2 with 3 players remaining, 1 of which is SK.
A random lynch has a 1/3 chance of being successful.
Combining with odds of previous win gives .7 odds of town win
Additional .2 chance of individual win, which is only relevant in the .3 chance of SK win, gives each town player a .7+(.3·.2)=.76 chance of winning
I would like to assume that using analysis to choose the lynches increases odds, but have seen no actual proof of that.
I don't normally like to engage in mechanics discussion, but for a game like this I think it's worth the time.
I was considering making a town bloc of three people, then lynching the most scummiest + tell two people to defect, but that kind of falls flat if the SK is in the town bloc. Thus, I think tom's plan strikes a good balance of being safe as well as +EV town, so I'm for following that.
So yeah, I think we should put our heads together and analyze the game to come up with a good town bloc.
An interesting quick of the setup-if we were interested in removing any degree of fun from the game and just maximizing the number of winning players, all seven players could win the game. I'm not going to actually suggest we do that since we're here to play mafia not make Megiddo waste their time and effort on making a setup only for us to not really use it, but I found the thought amusing.
I'll poke through Tom's math and add my own thoughts beyond the above (something that occurred to me a couple of days ago, just wasn't going to bring it up in the signup thread)when I'm awake tomorrow; for now I need to crash.
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@Tom: Why do you want the defector to be chosen at random?
>Hypothesis: choosing a player to defect increases odds we find the SK
>Rebuttal: a logical player will play to his own win condition. choosing the defector rewards a player for drawing the second most suspicion.
may decrease odds of successful lynch. percentages impossible to calculate.
ERROR
REBOOT REQUIRED
This is not a prisoner's dilemma. Two differences allow us to change the odds in our favor
>ability to communicate in advance of our decision
>SK's inability to defect
This allows us to use it as an investigation.
In addition to the lynch today, we must choose a single person to defect.
This choice should be random, so as not to incentivize drawing scumreads, and should be chosen after the lynch to maximize odds.
If no one defects, we chose the SK and lynch them Day 2.
If all choices are random, odds of picking SK for lynch or defection are 1/6+1/5, or .366666... for a town win.
Each town player has an additional 1/5 chance of an immediate individual win by being chosen as defector.
Night 1, a logical SK will kill a different player than the one chosen to defect. I have performed these calculations, but the SK is welcome to try.
This brings us to Day 2 with 3 players remaining, 1 of which is SK.
A random lynch has a 1/3 chance of being successful.
Combining with odds of previous win gives .7 odds of town win
Additional .2 chance of individual win, which is only relevant in the .3 chance of SK win, gives each town player a .7+(.3·.2)=.76 chance of winning
I would like to assume that using analysis to choose the lynches increases odds, but have seen no actual proof of that.
Holy crap Tombot. I like the effort, and the plan looks solid too. I am on board for following this as well.
An interesting quick of the setup-if we were interested in removing any degree of fun from the game and just maximizing the number of winning players, all seven players could win the game.
Somewhat OoG, but what was this plan? The best I could come up with was a plan that could make six players win, but I soon realized it wouldn't work.
@Tom: Why do you want the defector to be chosen at random?
Why don't you?
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
@Tom: Why do you want the defector to be chosen at random?
Why don't you?
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
Dunno, maybe since I want to eliminate scummy people from my PoE pool.
I dunno how you usually hunt (pun intended) and deal with scum, but I usually try to lynch the people who I think are scum and not lynch the people I think are town.
And with your "picking the defector by random", there's the problem that if we end up picking the obvtown player, we are making SK's job easier by getting rid of universal townread for them.
@Tom: Yeah, if someone here is town and thinking "I should purposely act scummy and not hunt SK so I get to defect" they should be better off not playing mafia.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
@Tom: Why do you want the defector to be chosen at random?
Why don't you?
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
Dunno, maybe since I want to eliminate scummy people from my PoE pool.
I dunno how you usually hunt (pun intended) and deal with scum, but I usually try to lynch the people who I think are scum and not lynch the people I think are town.
And with your "picking the defector by random", there's the problem that if we end up picking the obvtown player, we are making SK's job easier by getting rid of universal townread for them.
@Tom: Yeah, if someone here is town and thinking "I should purposely act scummy and not hunt SK so I get to defect" they should be better off not playing mafia.
I thought you were coming in all logic like Tom this game? Why are you forcing yourself to remain in the confines of what a "mafia game" should look like? This is mostly a mafia game yes. We need to lynch the scum to win. But there is also an alternative way to win, and that is to defect. Why would you NOT make yourself look scummy so that you could be the one to defect that night and win? Why would you NOT want to try and win ANY WAY POSSIBLE? The fact that you are trying to limit everyone to trying to play a traditional game with nontraditional rules seems super scummy. Are you the scum Bur? Trying to force the game one way so you won't be randomly selected?
I don't normally like to engage in mechanics discussion, but for a game like this I think it's worth the time.
I was considering making a town bloc of three people, then lynching the most scummiest + tell two people to defect, but that kind of falls flat if the SK is in the town bloc. Thus, I think tom's plan strikes a good balance of being safe as well as +EV town, so I'm for following that.
So yeah, I think we should put our heads together and analyze the game to come up with a good town bloc.
SUBJECT: BUR
>refuses to consider town playing to win alone
>>possible fake attitude to appear townie
>advocates choosing defector
>>knows he is frequent mislynch
>>>possible playing to solo win condition
>results inconclusive. possible SK
SUBJECT: MATOWAR77
>votes tombot playfully
>>probable town
SUBJECT: HUNTZILLA
>asks questions at high rate
>>returns to thread, asks more questions
>>>consecutive posts in thread, 15 hours apart
>belays genuine desire for information
>probable town
@Tom: Why do you want the defector to be chosen at random?
Why don't you?
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
Dunno, maybe since I want to eliminate scummy people from my PoE pool.
I dunno how you usually hunt (pun intended) and deal with scum, but I usually try to lynch the people who I think are scum and not lynch the people I think are town.
And with your "picking the defector by random", there's the problem that if we end up picking the obvtown player, we are making SK's job easier by getting rid of universal townread for them.
@Tom: Yeah, if someone here is town and thinking "I should purposely act scummy and not hunt SK so I get to defect" they should be better off not playing mafia.
I thought you were coming in all logic like Tom this game? Why are you forcing yourself to remain in the confines of what a "mafia game" should look like? This is mostly a mafia game yes. We need to lynch the scum to win. But there is also an alternative way to win, and that is to defect. Why would you NOT make yourself look scummy so that you could be the one to defect that night and win? Why would you NOT want to try and win ANY WAY POSSIBLE? The fact that you are trying to limit everyone to trying to play a traditional game with nontraditional rules seems super scummy. Are you the scum Bur? Trying to force the game one way so you won't be randomly selected?
In order:
- Unlike Tom, I'm focusing on solving this game and not just roleplaying a computer.
- Since killing the SK lets the town win?
- Would you do that?
- Since I have my honour and pride. I want to win by catching the SK instead of defecting. Otherwise, I would've defected already.
- Why does it seem super scummy?
- Nope.
- Yeah, since I totes have power over RNG.
I have few questions for you: Why aren't you scumhunting? Why are you so obsessed over the alt. wincon? Why not just start lynching people at random if we start removing people from PoE-pool by random?
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
>called out on not questioning this
>>questions this
In order:
- Unlike Tom, I'm focusing on solving this game and not just roleplaying a computer.
- Since killing the SK lets the town win?
- Would you do that?
- Since I have my honour and pride. I want to win by catching the SK instead of defecting. Otherwise, I would've defected already.
- Why does it seem super scummy?
- Nope.
- Yeah, since I totes have power over RNG.
I have few questions for you: Why aren't you scumhunting? Why are you so obsessed over the alt. wincon? Why not just start lynching people at random if we start removing people from PoE-pool by random?
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
Tom's goal was in fact solving this game. It seems like you're locked (by 'honor and pride' perhaps) into only considering the game from a more traditional mafia perspective. What Tom suggests basically trades out an extra day, maybe two, of conversation for something of an investigative role, while also trying to make sure that some number of town players win even if the entire town doesn't do so.
As for why it seems super scummy, that's because you're advocating for us playing a game of six villagers and a serial killer as opposed to prisoners using what powers they have. If your argument is that prisoner is actually weaker than villager (in this count, of course-I'm not asking you to argue that a lone prisoner is weaker than a lone villager as that's obviously not the case) I'd love to hear the reason you think so; if not, we should be making use of what little power we do have as a town.
As for your questions, I do think that we should allow a single player to defect, and if I'm chosen I will certainly do so-considering that if we come to that conclusion, we'll be following Tom's strategy, and to not defect would result in my being lynched the next day for being the serial killer.
As for the whole seven player winning thing, it might depend on the exact intricacies of the setup-but as far as I can tell the SK doesn't have to kill each night, and wins not when they have control of the vote but when they're the last player standing. Therefore, if all players were to claim, the prisoners could defect one by one while the serial killer does nothing until each player is a victor.
Interestingly, if one assumed this is more a social experiment on Meggido's a part than actually a mafia game, one might conclude that this is what Meggido wants out of the game-but I'm assuming they'd rather have a game of mafia.
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@Shinen: I get that part where we can use defection as a way to clear someone. However, I'm arguing that we shouldn't be using it at random as opposed to forcing someone scummy to defect. That's like 101 on how to use investigative roles.
In worst case, we clear someone we might've mislynched and in best case, we find out the SK.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
I have few questions for you: Why aren't you scumhunting? Why are you so obsessed over the alt. wincon? Why not just start lynching people at random if we start removing people from PoE-pool by random?
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
I was following the randomization plan set forth by Tombot. No need to scum hunt if that's the way we were playing it. But then you chimed in with your comments and it seemed pretty clear to me that you were scared of the plan. Which reeked of being the SK. The alt wincon is one of the tools at our disposal to win AND catch the SK. I think obsessed is a bit of a heavy-handed and loaded phrasing, however, which adds a few more scum points your way. I'd defect if it were time, of course. I will definitely cooperate if I am not chosen. I had an internal battle with myself on night zero as to whether I was going to defect or not. I wanted to oh so badly, but I had the same mindset you did, in which I wanted to catch me some scum. Tom's plan though is pretty golden, and was something I hadn't thought about prior, mostly because I don't put that much thought into the game before I am playing it. I am glad I cooperated though since Rhand ended up going for the glory.
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
>called out on not questioning this
>>questions this
VOTE : BUR
Ok I see what you are doing and I would be on board... NORMALLY. But I just defended your plan, that you are now immediately veering away from by going after someone scummy. Are we going to ignore the randomization aspect now? Because if that's the case, than we are technically doing Bur's plan... which we are reading him as scummy for... among other reasons...
That's great in theory, except there is a tangible benefit to being investigated in this case that might draw people to grab attention. And I'm pretty sure that benefit could be enough to screw us over.
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Ok I see what you are doing and I would be on board... NORMALLY. But I just defended your plan, that you are now immediately veering away from by going after someone scummy. Are we going to ignore the randomization aspect now? Because if that's the case, than we are technically doing Bur's plan... which we are reading him as scummy for... among other reasons...
randomization is for defector
>removes incentive to draw scumreads
the only reason to randomize the lynch is if likelihood of finding scum is actually worse than random
>totally possible
Ok I see what you are doing and I would be on board... NORMALLY. But I just defended your plan, that you are now immediately veering away from by going after someone scummy. Are we going to ignore the randomization aspect now? Because if that's the case, than we are technically doing Bur's plan... which we are reading him as scummy for... among other reasons...
randomization is for defector
>removes incentive to draw scumreads
the only reason to randomize the lynch is if likelihood of finding scum is actually worse than random
>totally possible
Got it, I am back on track now, had a brain fart for a few minutes there
That's great in theory, except there is a tangible benefit to being investigated in this case that might draw people to grab attention. And I'm pretty sure that benefit could be enough to screw us over.
Would you start acting scummy on purpose so you might get to defect?
@Hunt: You said that you'd cooperate with the plan, but you didn't answer, would you start acting scummy so you might get to defect if we followed my plan? And besides, why would I as SK be scared of the plan?
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
That's great in theory, except there is a tangible benefit to being investigated in this case that might draw people to grab attention. And I'm pretty sure that benefit could be enough to screw us over.
Would you start acting scummy on purpose so you might get to defect?
@Hunt: You said that you'd cooperate with the plan, but you didn't answer, would you start acting scummy so you might get to defect if we followed my plan? And besides, why would I as SK be scared of the plan?
I don't really think I need to "act" scummy on day one to get people to read me as scummy :)... but hell yes I would.
I have no idea why you would be scared of the plan... hence why I read it as scummy. Maybe because it doesn't give you as much control as you would like to have as the SK?
Tombot won't mind being defector number one then? Either this plan works or you're a really ballsy SK, your plan will work with or without you and I'd like to be sure it's solid
>ANALYZING PLAN
>>PLAN ACCEPTED
TOM WIN CHANCE: 1.0
REST OF TOWN WIN CHANCE: .53333...
Your disagreement with a plan seemed like it was more just to add a dissenting voice than actual disagreement with the plan. The random part really doesn't make too much of a difference and we have a lynch for scummy people anyway.
Of course I'll defect. What's the point of a plan if we don't stick to it?
And what would I as scum accomplish with that?
(And to be clear: I agree with Tom's plan except the "random" part.)
And it does make a difference whether we do things randomly or logically. I'd prefer to keep towny players in the game and remove suspicious players from the game. (Though, I admit that my initial plan won't work now that people like Hunt have admitted that they'd deliberately act scummy in order to get to defect.)
That's great in theory, except there is a tangible benefit to being investigated in this case that might draw people to grab attention. And I'm pretty sure that benefit could be enough to screw us over.
Would you start acting scummy on purpose so you might get to defect?
@Hunt: You said that you'd cooperate with the plan, but you didn't answer, would you start acting scummy so you might get to defect if we followed my plan? And besides, why would I as SK be scared of the plan?
I don't really think I need to "act" scummy on day one to get people to read me as scummy :)... but hell yes I would.
I have no idea why you would be scared of the plan... hence why I read it as scummy. Maybe because it doesn't give you as much control as you would like to have as the SK?
I really suggest you to stop using "I can't figure this out so it must be scummy" in future as a reasoning.
I know I'm not really good player, but even I know better than that. Keep digging deeper until you either find the town or scum mindset behind something or come to realise that it's a null tell.
Tombot won't mind being defector number one then? Either this plan works or you're a really ballsy SK, your plan will work with or without you and I'd like to be sure it's solid
>ANALYZING PLAN
>>PLAN ACCEPTED
TOM WIN CHANCE: 1.0
REST OF TOWN WIN CHANCE: .53333...
I don't really think I need to "act" scummy on day one to get people to read me as scummy :)... but hell yes I would.
>TOWN HUNTZ COMFIRMED
I'd prefer that if we start nominating people to defect that you wouldn't defect. You are ATM my top town read and I'd prefer to see you stick around longer to make my PoE easier.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
For some reason I have trouble getting into this game, which is why I don't like Micros much in general.
Quote from Matowar77 »
Also what's wrong with my emoticons? :'(
I'll have you know they're a good way of helping to express my feeling on a topic Grin (Picture is worth a thousand words and all)
Yes, that's true, but your overuse of emoticon use feels a bit artifical.
Quote from Huntzilla »
why are emoticons a tell?
See above.
Quote from Bur »
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
I will play to maximize the town's EV as much as possible. Since I'm a pansy, I'll follow any rules whatsoever.
----
God darn it I have so much trouble scumhunting in small setups such as these. Let's see if this ages-old strategy will work.
So, the initial reasoning as to why I was questioning Bur was because he was solely focused on mechanics discussion and was /not/ hunting the SK. His first two posts are mechanics optimization posts, which are whatever. Third post he responds to Hunt and wants to push for his version (not randomizing) over tom's. #25 is actually what set me off on Bur, since his "solving the game" efforts had been solely limited to just mechanics rather than behavioral analysis. What also set me off was that Bur seemed to be a bit angry over Huntzilla's prodding, which reminded me a lot of Drunken Tracker Mafia. I questioned him and he gives out meh responses and continues to focus on mechanics. #32 is basically shutting down the conversation/not allowing himself to fall into a trap.
I started looking at his questions since I remembered that he was caught in Drunken Trackers based on his poor/non-gamesolving questions, and I really wasn't impressed. His first couple of questions are mechanics bookkeeping/self-defense from Hunt, and I really don't get how these questions help find the SK:
Quote from Bur »
Would you start acting scummy on purpose so you might get to defect?
@Hunt: You said that you'd cooperate with the plan, but you didn't answer, would you start acting scummy so you might get to defect if we followed my plan? And besides, why would I as SK be scared of the plan?
@Bur: What answers were you hoping to get from these questions, and how do they help you find scum? Who do you want to lynch right now and why?
The only question that I found that helped determine someone's alignment was the question to Matowar, and that's more of a defensive question than a scumhunting one. His second question in post 40 doesn't really help at all either.
First post is a simple congratulations. He kind of garcia's Bur there in #19, but this is the beginning of a interrogation of Bur. I like Huntzilla's aggressiveness and, as Tom put it, "information-seeking". His #33, in particular, reads quite genuinely.
Quote from Hunt »
had an internal battle with myself on night zero as to whether I was going to defect or not. I wanted to oh so badly, but I had the same mindset you did, in which I wanted to catch me some scum.
Hunt would really have to go far into the mindset of a prisoner as the SK in order to fake this well, so I think this is a reliable townie indicator.
Quote from Hunt »
Was his answer acceptable to you?
Not really.
He's voting for someone not in the game which is a minor scumtell, though I'm really interested in the mindset behind this:
Quote from Matowar77 »
I'm fairly certain Tom has the solution but I don't want to be in the Lylo that may produce if we're unlucky
@Matowar: Why wouldn't you want to be part of that?
He has the RVS vote on tom, and gets mildly defensive over my questioning. Expresses a scumread on Bur. He really does make a good point in #41 (explaining that Bur kind of disagreed for the sake of disagreeing) but it's not /that/ alignment indicative.
@Matowar: What are your thoughts on my posts? What are your thoughts on Shinen's posts? If you think Bur is scum, why is your vote on tomsloger?
I'm pretty sure all seven of us can't win the game, since the SK wins before the final townie defects, btw. Mechanical housekeeping first post, and more discussion of mechanics in 28. I like the reasoning he presents against Bur's argument, though he still doesn't really scumhunt all that much.
@Shinen: Who is your top scum suspect right now?
First off, while I'm not really giving tom any points for a sound mechanical plan, his plan is solid and something we should follow to maximize our EV. His next two posts are kind of fluff/clarification, though what's creeping me out is that he's townreading people for flimsy reasoning. I agree with his townread of Huntzilla, but Matowar's townread seems kind of premature. I like his suspicion of Bur, but I don't think "putting himself out there too much" is really that townie.
That was a fairly useful exercise for me to get caught up in the game.
Right now, I'm clearing Huntzilla. This means that I have to search for one SK in four people:
- Bur
- Matowar77
- Shinen
- tomsloger
As of now, Bur is my top scumread (for the aforementioned questions that lead to nowhere, plus anger), so:
I'd prefer that if we start nominating people to defect that you wouldn't defect. You are ATM my top town read and I'd prefer to see you stick around longer to make my PoE easier.
@Proph: I was mainly trying to figure out Hunt's mindset. My preferred lynch would be either you or shinen. (Due to PoE)
OK, I can sort of see where your question was going, especially since tom commented on it.
If your preferred lynch is either me or Shinen, then why haven't you interrogated either of us yet? Ask me anything.
(I was kinda hoping, that you'd actually participate in the discussion, but since it apparently won't happen, I'll make this easy for you.)
Why are you not interested in how we'll use our defection tonight? (You said in your #46 that you'll follow any rules whatsoever).
What do you think of Tom's plan? My plan?
If you got to choose, who'd you force to defect? Why?
After Hunt, who's your top town read? Why?
Why is it really hard to fake that "I wanted to defect N0" mindset?
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
Why are you not interested in how we'll use our defection tonight? (You said in your #46 that you'll follow any rules whatsoever).
I am interested in using the defection.
Quote from Bur »
What do you think of Tom's plan? My plan?
I agree with Tom's plan. I'm fine with your plan as well, but I feel like the choice between randomizing the defection or making the second scummiest defect isn't meaningful enough to distinguish between. If I had to choose, I would give a slight preference for randomization since it'll possibly give /me/ a chance to defect, but who cares?
Quote from Bur »
If you got to choose, who'd you force to defect? Why?
I would force Tom to defect, since he is the most difficult to read out of this playerbase.
Quote from Bur »
After Hunt, who's your top town read? Why?
Matowar, and my reasoning is listed in the spoiler above.
Quote from Bur »
Why is it really hard to fake that "I wanted to defect N0" mindset?
It's not hard, per se, but it's just something that wouldn't occur to the SK. The thought of "should I defect or not?" looms over every prisoner's mind. The SK doesn't have to deliberate, since he is auto-cooperating.
Shinen has requested replacement. Due to the nature of this game and my desire for it to go as quickly as possible, I am instead going to modkill the slot without prejudice.
Shinen was a Prisoner.
The vote count does NOT reset.
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Well that narrows things even more for me.
I would like to lynch Bur and have Mato defect. This way we win today. I am totally convinced that both Tom and Proph are town and I feel the only two that make sense as the SK to me are Bur and Mato. Obviously we can lynch Mato and have Bur defect, it accomplishes the same thing in the end. If the lynchee isn't the SK then the defection is our back up. If the defector does not defect, we caught them red handed! This seems pretty simple now.
@Proph
You would prefer to have Tom defect, according to your list, correct?
@Tom
I think the best way to treat this here is just that we have two lynches to hit one scum out of three players. Those players are (tom, Matowar77, Bur). If I can clear one of you then it'll make this game trivial.
@Huntzilla: What is your reasoning for tom being town, and me being town?
An open setup for 7 players
Welcome to this fun and exciting Micro game!
Here are the rules:
6 players are Prisoners:
Prisoner
Abilities:
1. You may vote.
2. At Night, you may choose to Cooperate or Defect. If you Defect, and no other player chooses to Defect in the same Night, you win the game and leave immediately. However, if ANY NUMBER of other players chooses to Defect as well, all players who chose to Defect will be killed. If you submit no action you are assumed to be Cooperating.
1 of you is the Serial Killer
Serial Killer
Abilities
1. You may vote.
2. At Night, you may choose to kill another player.
Rules:
1. Standard Mafia rules apply
2. No Day deadlines, but I expect a quick pace of play. Nights will last twenty four hours maximum.
3. The game begins with a no-kill Night zero.
4. The order of operations for this game is as follows:
6. Serial Killer wins if they control the lynch/are the last player alive/etc.
Players Alive
2. Huntzilla
3. Matowar77
7. Tomsloger
Players Dead
4. Prophylaxis, Prisoner was found shanked in his cell Night One.
Escaped Victorious
5. Rhand, Prisoner was the sole defector Night Zero.
1. Bur, Prisoner was the sole defector Night One.
Mysteriously Vanished
6. Shinen, Prisoner, replaced out D1. Slot modkilled.
Please confirm via PM. When you confirm, if you are a prisoner, include whether or not you wish to defect on Night zero.
Game will begin when all players confirm or in 24 hours, whichever happens first.
Rhand, Prisoner defected Night Zero and has escaped the prison victorious!
It is now Day 1. With six alive, it's 4 to lynch!
Fastest win on the site?
>MAXIMIZING WIN PERCENTAGE
>SEARCHING METAGAME FILES
>SCANNING GAME-SPECIFIC RULES
>LOADING ZERO DETERMINANT STRATEGIES
This is not a prisoner's dilemma. Two differences allow us to change the odds in our favor
>ability to communicate in advance of our decision
>SK's inability to defect
This allows us to use it as an investigation.
In addition to the lynch today, we must choose a single person to defect.
This choice should be random, so as not to incentivize drawing scumreads, and should be chosen after the lynch to maximize odds.
If no one defects, we chose the SK and lynch them Day 2.
If all choices are random, odds of picking SK for lynch or defection are 1/6+1/5, or .366666... for a town win.
Each town player has an additional 1/5 chance of an immediate individual win by being chosen as defector.
Night 1, a logical SK will kill a different player than the one chosen to defect. I have performed these calculations, but the SK is welcome to try.
This brings us to Day 2 with 3 players remaining, 1 of which is SK.
A random lynch has a 1/3 chance of being successful.
Combining with odds of previous win gives .7 odds of town win
Additional .2 chance of individual win, which is only relevant in the .3 chance of SK win, gives each town player a .7+(.3·.2)=.76 chance of winning
I would like to assume that using analysis to choose the lynches increases odds, but have seen no actual proof of that.
INPUT "ISO" DOES NOT REGISTER
>Suggest checking player list
Also yes. Hearty congratulations to Rhand. Flawless victory.
I was considering making a town bloc of three people, then lynching the most scummiest + tell two people to defect, but that kind of falls flat if the SK is in the town bloc. Thus, I think tom's plan strikes a good balance of being safe as well as +EV town, so I'm for following that.
So yeah, I think we should put our heads together and analyze the game to come up with a good town bloc.
@Matowar: Why are you using so many emoticons?
I'll poke through Tom's math and add my own thoughts beyond the above (something that occurred to me a couple of days ago, just wasn't going to bring it up in the signup thread)when I'm awake tomorrow; for now I need to crash.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
I'd suggest that we lynch the most suspicious person and then tell second most suspicious person to defect. (And no one else defect that night.)
If we mislynch, this leaves us tomorrow with either 3 players making PoE easier or we have our SK found (the person who didn't defect).
>Posts: 22
>Smileys and emoticons: 36
>CHECKS OUT >Hypothesis: choosing a player to defect increases odds we find the SK
>Rebuttal: a logical player will play to his own win condition. choosing the defector rewards a player for drawing the second most suspicion.
may decrease odds of successful lynch. percentages impossible to calculate.
ERROR
REBOOT REQUIRED
Holy crap Tombot. I like the effort, and the plan looks solid too. I am on board for following this as well.
Congrats to Rhand! Brass balls you have on you...
Why don't you?
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
Dunno, maybe since I want to eliminate scummy people from my PoE pool.
I dunno how you usually hunt (pun intended) and deal with scum, but I usually try to lynch the people who I think are scum and not lynch the people I think are town.
And with your "picking the defector by random", there's the problem that if we end up picking the obvtown player, we are making SK's job easier by getting rid of universal townread for them.
@Tom: Yeah, if someone here is town and thinking "I should purposely act scummy and not hunt SK so I get to defect" they should be better off not playing mafia.
Tom (1): Matowar
4 to lynch.
I thought you were coming in all logic like Tom this game? Why are you forcing yourself to remain in the confines of what a "mafia game" should look like? This is mostly a mafia game yes. We need to lynch the scum to win. But there is also an alternative way to win, and that is to defect. Why would you NOT make yourself look scummy so that you could be the one to defect that night and win? Why would you NOT want to try and win ANY WAY POSSIBLE? The fact that you are trying to limit everyone to trying to play a traditional game with nontraditional rules seems super scummy. Are you the scum Bur? Trying to force the game one way so you won't be randomly selected?
>LOADING METADATA
SUBJECT: BUR
>refuses to consider town playing to win alone
>>possible fake attitude to appear townie
>advocates choosing defector
>>knows he is frequent mislynch
>>>possible playing to solo win condition
>results inconclusive. possible SK
SUBJECT: MATOWAR77
>votes tombot playfully
>>probable town
SUBJECT: HUNTZILLA
>asks questions at high rate
>>returns to thread, asks more questions
>>>consecutive posts in thread, 15 hours apart
>belays genuine desire for information
>probable town
In order:
- Unlike Tom, I'm focusing on solving this game and not just roleplaying a computer.
- Since killing the SK lets the town win?
- Would you do that?
- Since I have my honour and pride. I want to win by catching the SK instead of defecting. Otherwise, I would've defected already.
- Why does it seem super scummy?
- Nope.
- Yeah, since I totes have power over RNG.
I have few questions for you: Why aren't you scumhunting? Why are you so obsessed over the alt. wincon? Why not just start lynching people at random if we start removing people from PoE-pool by random?
@Everyone: Do you agree that we should allow a single player among us defect tonight? If you end up being chosen to defect (by whatever means), will you defect? If you end up not being chosen, will cooperate?
>>mildly discredits tombot >called out on not questioning this
>>questions this
VOTE : BUR
Tom's goal was in fact solving this game. It seems like you're locked (by 'honor and pride' perhaps) into only considering the game from a more traditional mafia perspective. What Tom suggests basically trades out an extra day, maybe two, of conversation for something of an investigative role, while also trying to make sure that some number of town players win even if the entire town doesn't do so.
As for why it seems super scummy, that's because you're advocating for us playing a game of six villagers and a serial killer as opposed to prisoners using what powers they have. If your argument is that prisoner is actually weaker than villager (in this count, of course-I'm not asking you to argue that a lone prisoner is weaker than a lone villager as that's obviously not the case) I'd love to hear the reason you think so; if not, we should be making use of what little power we do have as a town.
As for your questions, I do think that we should allow a single player to defect, and if I'm chosen I will certainly do so-considering that if we come to that conclusion, we'll be following Tom's strategy, and to not defect would result in my being lynched the next day for being the serial killer.
As for the whole seven player winning thing, it might depend on the exact intricacies of the setup-but as far as I can tell the SK doesn't have to kill each night, and wins not when they have control of the vote but when they're the last player standing. Therefore, if all players were to claim, the prisoners could defect one by one while the serial killer does nothing until each player is a victor.
Interestingly, if one assumed this is more a social experiment on Meggido's a part than actually a mafia game, one might conclude that this is what Meggido wants out of the game-but I'm assuming they'd rather have a game of mafia.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
By trying to figure out who is the SK?
In worst case, we clear someone we might've mislynched and in best case, we find out the SK.
I don't tend to tell people what I want to find before I find it.
I was following the randomization plan set forth by Tombot. No need to scum hunt if that's the way we were playing it. But then you chimed in with your comments and it seemed pretty clear to me that you were scared of the plan. Which reeked of being the SK. The alt wincon is one of the tools at our disposal to win AND catch the SK. I think obsessed is a bit of a heavy-handed and loaded phrasing, however, which adds a few more scum points your way. I'd defect if it were time, of course. I will definitely cooperate if I am not chosen. I had an internal battle with myself on night zero as to whether I was going to defect or not. I wanted to oh so badly, but I had the same mindset you did, in which I wanted to catch me some scum. Tom's plan though is pretty golden, and was something I hadn't thought about prior, mostly because I don't put that much thought into the game before I am playing it. I am glad I cooperated though since Rhand ended up going for the glory.
Ok I see what you are doing and I would be on board... NORMALLY. But I just defended your plan, that you are now immediately veering away from by going after someone scummy. Are we going to ignore the randomization aspect now? Because if that's the case, than we are technically doing Bur's plan... which we are reading him as scummy for... among other reasons...
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
>removes incentive to draw scumreads
the only reason to randomize the lynch is if likelihood of finding scum is actually worse than random
>totally possible
Got it, I am back on track now, had a brain fart for a few minutes there
Would you start acting scummy on purpose so you might get to defect?
@Hunt: You said that you'd cooperate with the plan, but you didn't answer, would you start acting scummy so you might get to defect if we followed my plan? And besides, why would I as SK be scared of the plan?
UNVOTE: BUR
>>MANUALLY ENTERED REASON: bur putting himself out there too much bro. totally townie.
INFORMATION REQUIRED.
>INITIATING QUESTIONING PROTOCOL
@EVERYONE
>WHO IS YOUR PREFERRED LYNCH RIGHT NOW?
>WHAT IS YOUR READ OF TOMBOT?
What are your thoughts about my/Tom's plans? Do you agree to defect if you end up being chosen?
I don't really think I need to "act" scummy on day one to get people to read me as scummy :)... but hell yes I would.
I have no idea why you would be scared of the plan... hence why I read it as scummy. Maybe because it doesn't give you as much control as you would like to have as the SK?
>>PLAN ACCEPTED
TOM WIN CHANCE: 1.0
REST OF TOWN WIN CHANCE: .53333... >TOWN HUNTZ COMFIRMED
Was his answer acceptable to you?
And what would I as scum accomplish with that?
(And to be clear: I agree with Tom's plan except the "random" part.)
And it does make a difference whether we do things randomly or logically. I'd prefer to keep towny players in the game and remove suspicious players from the game. (Though, I admit that my initial plan won't work now that people like Hunt have admitted that they'd deliberately act scummy in order to get to defect.)
I really suggest you to stop using "I can't figure this out so it must be scummy" in future as a reasoning.
I know I'm not really good player, but even I know better than that. Keep digging deeper until you either find the town or scum mindset behind something or come to realise that it's a null tell.
I'd prefer that if we start nominating people to defect that you wouldn't defect. You are ATM my top town read and I'd prefer to see you stick around longer to make my PoE easier.
Yes, that's true, but your overuse of emoticon use feels a bit artifical.
See above.
I will play to maximize the town's EV as much as possible. Since I'm a pansy, I'll follow any rules whatsoever.
----
God darn it I have so much trouble scumhunting in small setups such as these. Let's see if this ages-old strategy will work.
I started looking at his questions since I remembered that he was caught in Drunken Trackers based on his poor/non-gamesolving questions, and I really wasn't impressed. His first couple of questions are mechanics bookkeeping/self-defense from Hunt, and I really don't get how these questions help find the SK:
@Bur: What answers were you hoping to get from these questions, and how do they help you find scum? Who do you want to lynch right now and why?
The only question that I found that helped determine someone's alignment was the question to Matowar, and that's more of a defensive question than a scumhunting one. His second question in post 40 doesn't really help at all either.
@Matowar: Why wouldn't you want to be part of that?
He has the RVS vote on tom, and gets mildly defensive over my questioning. Expresses a scumread on Bur. He really does make a good point in #41 (explaining that Bur kind of disagreed for the sake of disagreeing) but it's not /that/ alignment indicative.
@Matowar: What are your thoughts on my posts? What are your thoughts on Shinen's posts? If you think Bur is scum, why is your vote on tomsloger?
@Shinen: Who is your top scum suspect right now?
That was a fairly useful exercise for me to get caught up in the game.
Right now, I'm clearing Huntzilla. This means that I have to search for one SK in four people:
- Bur
- Matowar77
- Shinen
- tomsloger
As of now, Bur is my top scumread (for the aforementioned questions that lead to nowhere, plus anger), so:
Vote: Bur
Actually, I have a suggestion for you guys: Let's lynch me today and I get to decide who defects tonight, okay?
TOMBOT HAS GIVEN YOU NOTHING TO READ >HUNTZILLA TOWNCLEARED BY MANY
>>SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
>>>TOWN HUNTZILLA FREQUENTLY SCUMMY
>METAGAME DATA IGNORED
>TOWN HUNTZILLA CONFIRMED
@PROPHYLAXIS
Logic agrees with your assessment of bur.
Programmer override does not reflect views of TomBot >YOU DECIDE NOTHING
If your preferred lynch is either me or Shinen, then why haven't you interrogated either of us yet? Ask me anything.
(I was kinda hoping, that you'd actually participate in the discussion, but since it apparently won't happen, I'll make this easy for you.)
Why are you not interested in how we'll use our defection tonight? (You said in your #46 that you'll follow any rules whatsoever).
What do you think of Tom's plan? My plan?
If you got to choose, who'd you force to defect? Why?
After Hunt, who's your top town read? Why?
Why is it really hard to fake that "I wanted to defect N0" mindset?
I agree with Tom's plan. I'm fine with your plan as well, but I feel like the choice between randomizing the defection or making the second scummiest defect isn't meaningful enough to distinguish between. If I had to choose, I would give a slight preference for randomization since it'll possibly give /me/ a chance to defect, but who cares?
I would force Tom to defect, since he is the most difficult to read out of this playerbase.
Matowar, and my reasoning is listed in the spoiler above.
It's not hard, per se, but it's just something that wouldn't occur to the SK. The thought of "should I defect or not?" looms over every prisoner's mind. The SK doesn't have to deliberate, since he is auto-cooperating.
Tom (1): Matowar
Bur (1): Proph
Shinen has requested replacement. Due to the nature of this game and my desire for it to go as quickly as possible, I am instead going to modkill the slot without prejudice.
Shinen was a Prisoner.
The vote count does NOT reset.
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
I would like to lynch Bur and have Mato defect. This way we win today. I am totally convinced that both Tom and Proph are town and I feel the only two that make sense as the SK to me are Bur and Mato. Obviously we can lynch Mato and have Bur defect, it accomplishes the same thing in the end. If the lynchee isn't the SK then the defection is our back up. If the defector does not defect, we caught them red handed! This seems pretty simple now.
@Proph
You would prefer to have Tom defect, according to your list, correct?
@Tom
Why would you not let him have a say? Especially if he is conceding to die and you think he might* be scum?
*I realize by this point you think Bur is clear... But you did think he was scum earlier.
Either way, it makes little sense that you wouldn't allow him to do so... what gives?
For the record though,
@Bur: Who do you want to defect?
Anyway,
Vote Bur
>NEW CALCULATIONS FORTHCOMING
Unvote
I think the best way to treat this here is just that we have two lynches to hit one scum out of three players. Those players are (tom, Matowar77, Bur). If I can clear one of you then it'll make this game trivial.
@Huntzilla: What is your reasoning for tom being town, and me being town?