First off @Meg: The optimal way I thought for the scum to hide would be one to fake drunk, and the other to post their legit results (assuming one poison, one track). I didn't know if anyone else figured this out, and wanted any speculation off the thread to see if we could have something silly happen (like only have two sober trackers, makes narrowing down much easier). Here is what we got.
GJ targets Anak > Rhand Dota targets Megs > GJ
Megs targets GJ > Rhand Anak targets Rhand > Anak Rhand targets Anak > Rhand
Death targets GJ > Death
Bur targets GJ > Meggido
It looks like Rhand, Dota, Anak, and myself are sober. Megs, DV, and Bur are drunk. Let's be generous and assume one of the sober trackers got lucky (in would be a statistic anomaly if both drunk trackers got the "correct" result. That means one scum is in the sober pile, and another is in the drunk pile, but let's go further than that and look at DV.
He has myself and Bur as scum reads. Let's assume he is correct about me and I am lying. One of Bur/Death/Meg are actually sober and I am scum. You have the exact same situation. The only difference is that now your "sober trackers" are Dota, Anak, Rhand, and whoever I "actually targeted".
The point I am trying to make though is that for me and Bur to be scum, two drunk trackers apparently got the correct result (which is insanely unlikely) AND I guessed correctly on Anak's target. DV's post about me lying feels more like he was trying to take the town's pulse, and see if he could garner support. His other scum read, he has had zero interaction, apart from:
Quote from DV »
Bur is sort of lurky to me and in a game like this that screams mafia to me.
Luwl what reasoning? I literally picked someone from the list at random.
I think Megs, and TCM. I didn't realize GJ was TCM though till a day ago or so. This would have been 5+ years ago so I to me its not really relevant.
@Dot, You are forgetting the thing that I have started to believe that Gentleman Johnny is lying about who he targeted.
Like, take a look at those, and compare them to your posts to Meggido. It's why I was initially thinking he was the other person you thought was scum.
Also, GJ: Why did you target Anak? Everyone else besides you has given their reasoning.
Why does it actually matter? I decided to target him before pms were even sent because he is the only player on the list who has been playing longer than me.
I'm not voting you, because you can wait till tomorrow. If I die then the town lynches you. Its that simple, why waste a lynch today, when it can be confirmed tomorrow?
Look at this slip. He knows he is a sober tracker. If he thinks I am lying because I was actually the poisoner, why would I not die tomorrow if Rhand/Megs died today?
After thinking this game through with targets and when they claimed I now believe TCM or Rhand are the only ones that could possibly be poisoned.
I think claim order is important here. Dota targets Megs > GJ Megs targets GJ > Rhand GJ targets Anak > Rhand
Anak targets Rhand > Anak
Rhand targets Anak > Rhand
Death targets GJ > Death
Bur targets GJ > Meggido
Also I am 100% convinced that I am drunk town.
I am also making the assumption that no drunk town got a correct result.
Every scenario I run I can't make sense of the three town claims. From GJ Anak and Rhand.
I believe that they are our three real town, and that is the only way that it makes sense to me, because the only one that could be mafia is Anak, and how the hell did he know that Rhand targeted him. Furthermore it would be impossible for them to make other's claims be false since they confirmed each other. Basically if either of them were scum then we would have 5 "True trackers". I feel that this validates TCM because of this and that my suspicion of him(Largely because I got that he targeted me) is unfounded and that he is scum.
This leaves Dota is scum number one. And if I am right, then to me that makes megs scum number two, because they agreed with who they said he targeted. Now he could have gotten lucky, but I don't believe that this is the case at all. Dota is the only non confirmed "True Tracker" in the group and this makes him highly suspect because of this.
With the non true group, being on Megs and Bur. I am inclined to think that it is megs because he confirmed a track that I do not think happened.
I feel that this validates TCM because of this and that my suspicion of him(Largely because I got that he targeted me) is unfounded and that he is not scum.
Fixed.
Ok... so the options:
* 2 of the "drunk" results are really drunk, one is the poisoner. The other scum is in the "sober" pile (scum = one of DV, Bur, Megs + one of Anak, GJ, Dota)
* 2 of the "drunk" results are really drunk, GJ is scum and poisoned the third result, GJ's buddy is Anak to provide a track result (scum = GJ + Anak)
* 1 of the "drunk" results is really drunk, one "sober" is drunk and randomed the correct result, one "drunk" is scum and tracked Anak, GJ is scum and poisoned the third "drunk" result (scum = GJ + one of DV, Bur, Megs)
I think that's it?
It basically all means we don't know a thing because occam says scenario 1 is the most likely.
DV, maybe I am thinking about this wrong, but I don't think we can PoE down any scum out of the confirmed claims because one of the scum actually has a legit track. I do agree that one of the four confirmed is scum and one of the three drunks is scum.
A drunk town somehow getting an accurate result I don't think is possible in those claims. The only way that would be possible is if both scum acted as drunks which I think we can agree doesn't make sense.
Our claiming sorted us into two groups, which is about as far as I thought it would get. I think behavioral analysis is going to have to carry on out for the rest of this day.
Unless the order of claims tells more, but I don't see it.
Actually, I think we found our first scum. DV, if you are 100% drunk town as you say, the then you would know that you have a 50% of hitting scum by voting either Megs or Bur. (Assuming the simplest explanation of the claims is true with one scum in each pile, disregarding lucky drunks and such).
So why would you possibly vote dota when any of the other three are scum? At best you have a 25% of hitting scum, from your perspective, it makes far more sense to look into the other two drunk claims and figure out which would be scum.
But instead you vote dota. Why? Because on the surface it looks like his claim is the least supported as nobody tracked him, but that's in the same boat as GJ for which you 180'ed on. If you completely believe Rhand and I to be town, then your odds become equal looking in the drunks and true claims. I just do not buy the fact that you would overlook the best chance to Lynch scum if you truly were drunk town.
Voting DV once I figure out how to bold text on mobile
Actually, I think we found our first scum. DV, if you are 100% drunk town as you say, the then you would know that you have a 50% of hitting scum by voting either Megs or Bur. (Assuming the simplest explanation of the claims is true with one scum in each pile, disregarding lucky drunks and such).
So why would you possibly vote dota when any of the other three are scum? At best you have a 25% of hitting scum, from your perspective, it makes far more sense to look into the other two drunk claims and figure out which would be scum.
But instead you vote dota. Why? Because on the surface it looks like his claim is the least supported as nobody tracked him, but that's in the same boat as GJ for which you 180'ed on. If you completely believe Rhand and I to be town, then your odds become equal looking in the drunks and true claims. I just do not buy the fact that you would overlook the best chance to Lynch scum if you truly were drunk town.
Voting DV once I figure out how to bold text on mobile
That's playing percentages. If you actually read what I said, then Dota has to be scum. Its the only possibility.
And I am like 90% certain that Megs is the other scum because he confirmed a Track that didn't happen. Look at it this way. There were three town that basically confirmed each other. That means that the other "True Tracker" actually can't exist, and its not a possibility that Megs confirmed him. You see what I am saying right? The two mafia are confirming each other.
Furthermore I assume that the Mafia do not have Day chat, this makes Dota going first an advantage for the mafia team, because with the way that he set up the claims, all he had to do is say he targeted his mafia member and then they just had to say yeah thats right. Making him appear town. Now there is a slight chance that he guessed and got lucky with Megs, which is why I am not 100% on board with Megs, but I am a 100% certain following this logic Dota has to be mafia.
You know that the scum that doesn't poison gets a legit track result right? Only one has to guess, e.g. act as drunk.
Going to think about your last post more, but I want to confirm you know that because currently I don't see how dota is confirmed scum. Will think some more though.
You know that the scum that doesn't poison gets a legit track result right? Only one has to guess, e.g. act as drunk.
Going to think about your last post more, but I want to confirm you know that because currently I don't see how dota is confirmed scum. Will think some more though.
You know that the scum that doesn't poison gets a legit track result right? Only one has to guess, e.g. act as drunk.
Going to think about your last post more, but I want to confirm you know that because currently I don't see how dota is confirmed scum. Will think some more though.
I'm currently totally reworking how I was thinking about this game for the last three days. But the fact that nobody has said anything is worrying to me.
Eh, I was trying to catch up in the other game. Unless I got the super fun and all three drunk trackers targeted me, one of Bur, DV, or Megs is likely scum. I feel Megs for town, so it's one of the other two. DV is making so many mistakes, that I could easily see him being careless simply lacking apathy to actually legit try to figure it out. Bur is essentially super lurking.
The other scum is somewhere in the Rhand/Anak/Dota perfect track. I am not getting enough Anak/Dota to make me feel better, but we should deal with them tomorrow.
@Meg: Why is one of my prime suspects in your town clear pile?
I didn't think they were. Anak has been lurking only slightly less than Bur, but for DV, I guess I don't read that as genuine as he went from having me as scum lying, to clearing me, to Bur has to be scum. His logic seems all over the place, and while town could make mistakes, I don't see this set-up as anything super difficult to figure out. I am not saying he is purposefully messing up to frame people, but he feels like he isn't connected with the game, a trait I often see as scum.
That said, I hate lurkers, and will lynch Bur if he doesn't post by tonight. If he is town, I feel zero remorse. DOn't sign up for a micro if you can't post at least once a day. It's not like we do a page a day or anything.
Because I voted 3 seconds after your post and didn't notice yours.I am totally ok with a mass claim as well. I don't really see that being against us. Even though we all know we are trackers I am assuming we mean targets and who they targeted right?
I think with the wrong information we have to share information. It doesn't equate to a win, but otherwise we have information that we may be operating on that may or may not be correct. Just my feeling, but I feel that information sharing is the correct play.
I don't think there is any way to not hide in the drunk pile. Also you are forgetting if someone targets a mafia member and they claim that they targeted someone else making them look like a drunk as well. So it is very possible that we could have a total of 6 drunks show up. This is only if everyone targeted a different person. I vote we go ahead with the claim because I see no way to eliminate these possibilities.
In hindsight the bolded stands out, like he was already setting up his "GJ must be scum!" claim which comes later. This alone is reason enough to believe he's scum.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm doing this at work, this is taking longer than I expected,
and I'm running out of time. I'm going to try and cut to the highlights for the rest of this
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Half of Megs screams town to me half screams mafia.
Bur is sort of lurky to me and in a game like this that screams mafia to me.
I have some other info, but I'll keep that to my chest until claims.
Interestingly, a post that mentions both other "drunks", with one as neutral and one as scum. @D_V: Did you ever reveal this other info you mentioned above?
@ Megs, You are trying to derail the best plan for the town. Either out of concern or because you are trying to hurt the town. I can't think of any reason for us not to claim the information its quite clearly the only way for us to win this game.
anyway, whatever, you guys are boring and Rhand should really know better. I targeted TCM, who targeted Rhand. Continue with random claim order please.
Are you dumb? Are you even reading this game? We were going to claim targets then who they targeted.
He asks Megs if he's reading this game when he clearly isn't himself. I had made my claim of both target and result with an explanation as to why I was doing so. He must have not read it. We also covered the "Who is TCM?" back on page one. In fact, here's where I brought it up:
Quote from Dotarchon - Post 20 »
Megiddo voted for you as TCM(took me a moment to figure out it was you), it was possible that he didn't realise he had put you at L-1. Wanted to see if he knew or not.
Happy to claim results, agree with random order.
Quote from Death"s_Vampire - Post 21 »
Because I voted 3 seconds after your post and didn't notice yours.
I am totally ok with a mass claim as well. I don't really see that being against us. Even though we all know we are trackers I am assuming we mean targets and who they targeted right?
Do you have any experience with any of the players in this game?
I think Megs, and TCM. I didn't realize GJ was TCM though till a day ago or so. This would have been 5+ years ago so I to me its not really relevant. @Dot, You are forgetting the thing that I have started to believe that Gentleman Johnny is lying about who he targeted.
Nowhere before this does he suggest that GJ might be lying, so why is he telling me I'm forgetting something he hasn't mentioned?
GJ is scum, and he either got very lucky in guessing who Anak targeted, or Anak is his teammate. But Anak is solidly in the townpile. {insert Jackie Chan confused face here}
After thinking this game through with targets and when they claimed I now believe TCM or Rhand are the only ones that could possibly be poisoned.
I think claim order is important here. Dota targets Megs > GJ Megs targets GJ > Rhand GJ targets Anak > Rhand
Anak targets Rhand > Anak
Rhand targets Anak > Rhand
Death targets GJ > Death
Bur targets GJ > Meggido
Also I am 100% convinced that I am drunk town.
I am also making the assumption that no drunk town got a correct result.
Every scenario I run I can't make sense of the three town claims. From GJ Anak and Rhand.
I believe that they are our three real town, and that is the only way that it makes sense to me, because the only one that could be mafia is Anak, and how the hell did he know that Rhand targeted him. Furthermore it would be impossible for them to make other's claims be false since they confirmed each other. Basically if either of them were scum then we would have 5 "True trackers". I feel that this validates TCM because of this and that my suspicion of him(Largely because I got that he targeted me) is unfounded and that he is scum.
This leaves Dota is scum number one. And if I am right, then to me that makes megs scum number two, because they agreed with who they said he targeted. Now he could have gotten lucky, but I don't believe that this is the case at all. Dota is the only non confirmed "True Tracker" in the group and this makes him highly suspect because of this.
With the non true group, being on Megs and Bur. I am inclined to think that it is megs because he confirmed a track that I do not think happened.
I feel that this validates TCM because of this and that my suspicion of him(Largely because I got that he targeted me) is unfounded and that he is not scum.
Fixed.
And now GJ AND Anak are definite town. And he admits to suspecting GJ because OMGUS. And now I'm 100% guaranteed scum by his logic. While everyone else is discussing the three drunks and who could be the lying scum between them, this is D_V's second attempt to start a wagon on a player outside of that pool.
You know that the scum that doesn't poison gets a legit track result right? Only one has to guess, e.g. act as drunk. Going to think about your last post more, but I want to confirm you know that because currently I don't see how dota is confirmed scum. Will think some more though.
God DAMNIT. How did I skip over this. Disregard everything I said. Unvote
Page 1, post 2. Xyre's explanation of the setup is quite clear. Just like with GJ, he gets no support for my wagon and drops it in favour of:
I think DV is indeed our best lynch toDay.
The best part is that if he's indeed scum, then his buddy that gave us a real result toDay will have to make one up toMorrow
I feel like Bur is much more likely to be our scum than d_v.
read his posts and ask yourself if but has done ANYTHING to try and solve the game.
a n y t h i n g
d_v I can buy as a guy who is just not that good throwing things out there to see what sticks. but he's trying to solve.
Bur spent the majority of his posts this game on a pointless questioning endeavor that he's done absolutely nothing with, and now he's lurking it out (though I recall him declaring v/la at some point).
like if Bur doesn't show up here today with some bomb ass analysis he should just be lynched.
even if he does show up with bomb ass analysis I'm probably still going to want to lynch him.
read bur posts. lynch bur scum.
d_v is in my experience the exact kind of player who would do this kind of stuff as town.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I think DV is indeed our best lynch toDay.
The best part is that if he's indeed scum, then his buddy that gave us a real result toDay will have to make one up toMorrow
tell me why this is good or how it helps us solve the game.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Is it possible the two could be scum together? Neither of them were targeted so they ended up claiming last. They had all the information laid out in front of them and could tailor their claims however they saw fit. Everyone else had been confirmed by that point, so if one of the drunks had gotten unlucky and randomed the correct result they would know they could safely both claim drunk and thereby distance themselves from one another. Two things lead me to believe this might be a possibility:
1) Early on D_V mentions Bur lurking, and that this "screams mafia". He also puts him solidly in the scum category of his T-S list. Yet through all their interactions he never pursues this. It's only once his attempted wagons on GJ and myself don't gain traction that he brings it up again.
2) I find it hard to believe that all three drunks targeted GJ. When D_V and Bur claimed they would know that Megs is drunk and that the other drunk had an accurate result. By both claiming to have targeted GJ it creates a situation in which GJ could be lying, which D_V did try and push.
This next bit is pure speculation and probably the weakest point of my case here but one I think could have relevance. The "R u 5?" comment made during the argument with Megiddo. It looks out of place. If I were scum I would have come up with a list of possible claim situations during night 0 and used a numbering system that you could refer to during the day to indicate how to go about claiming. Considering the setup it would be in the scum's best interest to have some way to co-ordinate.
The problem with them being scum together is that with one drunk result, it means 2 of the 3 drunk trackers ended up rolling the correct result, which is why I am adamant there is likely a scum in the sober tracker pile.
I thought it was 3 drunk, 2 sober. I read the opening post and realized it was the opposite.
So 3 sober, 2 drunk.... Actually that doesn't change anything. I still think there is 1 scum in each pile, it just means that the statistics actually make sense and a drunk tracker didn't get a correct result.
I think I was stuck on three, due to all 3 tracks on me being drunk. I just justfied the numbers by assuming one of the drunk trackers RNGed the correct target.
And no Meg. If both bur and DV were scum together, it would mean (in my old world) that two of the three drunk tracker had gotten the 1:6 chance of getting legit results, which I dimissed as being statistically almost impossible.
Both scum being in the drunk pile makes more sense now, but it is still unlikely. Why do you think I was tying DV to you? o-0
I think DV is indeed our best lynch toDay.
The best part is that if he's indeed scum, then his buddy that gave us a real result toDay will have to make one up toMorrow
tell me why this is good or how it helps us solve the game.
Because if we change the claim order each Day, he'll slip sooner or later.
also are you suggesting that d_v was communicating in code with... me?
Not with you, with whoever his partner is. That response to you looked out of place when compared to his other posts. As I said, I'm probably reading too much into that line.
@GJ: It is more likely that there is a 1/1 split, I just think we need to keep the possibility in mind should we lynch correctly today. One of the two flipping scum should not be an automatic pass for the other, unless we have no further drunks show up.
I think DV is indeed our best lynch toDay.
The best part is that if he's indeed scum, then his buddy that gave us a real result toDay will have to make one up toMorrow
tell me why this is good or how it helps us solve the game.
Because if we change the claim order each Day, he'll slip sooner or later.
Keep in mind as well that once we lynch one of the two scum, they lose their ability to track and poison on the same night. The remaining scum will be forced to either track to have an accurate claim or poison and take their chances. Actually, this is another good reason for scum to both appear drunk as early as possible so as to have a reason later on for getting inaccurate results. I mentioned earlier that we should maybe setup a tracking order for the nights so as to catch the poisoner, but I now realise that's a terrible idea. We should maybe consider picking our targets at random to make it harder for the poisoner to make logical assumptions as to who we tracked.
I thought it was 3 drunk, 2 sober. I read the opening post and realized it was the opposite.
So 3 sober, 2 drunk.... Actually that doesn't change anything. I still think there is 1 scum in each pile, it just means that the statistics actually make sense and a drunk tracker didn't get a correct result.
I think I was stuck on three, due to all 3 tracks on me being drunk. I just justfied the numbers by assuming one of the drunk trackers RNGed the correct target.
Luwl So I make one mistake and its suddenly a "mafia tell"(Which you said was tons of mistakes) then you do this and its all cewl. Sweet logixs bra.
Bur isn't scum I think. Would scum!Bur really add a third GJ track to the pile?
Maybe I'm too drunk but by this logic the only person that could be scum is Megs. Like no just no. I heavily dislike this post.
You were ready to lynch him after his balking on claiming, why did this stance suddenly change to no way scum could be Megs?
No dude, your logic is that the mafia would never ever make a claim that someone else already did. So that Bur has to be town, then I also have to be town by this logic. Leaving Megs. I am just saying that this in no way clears Bur. Your logic is appalling.
I am mostly convinced Megs isn't scum over the last couple days. Either that or hes playing better.
@Dota I don't play the game you want me to play. I've never gotten this logic, person X put forth an argument, and looked for others to see if he was right, he must be scum! I do this all the time its part of having a conversation. Also how is that the R U 5 comment out of place? It was at megs for freaking out. I actually question your read of the whole thing for not picking up on that. Its like you haven't been reading this game at all. You pulled my posts out on their own, with no context. I am actually amazed.
In hindsight the bolded stands out, like he was already setting up his "GJ must be scum!" claim which comes later. This alone is reason enough to believe he's scum.
I was pretty sure he was scum just because of how he was talking and the fact that my information disagreed with what he said. I also didn't realize that the scum had a legitimate track, I simply made a conclusion about the game and somehow missed that part of the game. I made one mistake and it literally messed up about how I thought about the game from the beginning.
Rhand any reason you didn't just hammer d_v there?
I don't know man, he clearly said I was the best lynch target.
Unvote Vote Bur
I'm for lynching the player doing zero in this game.
Some comments before I die.
Bur is scum.
If I die and nobody else does GJ is scum.(I don't think this likely because I am certain I am drunk town, also some really wonky stuff would have had to happen)
Rhand not lynching me is worrying a town with that read would just instantly go. Also his defense of Bur is very troubling to me.
I also dislike Dot Archons attempt to only go after the three drunks. This is also troubling.
Ya'll can lynch me for misunderstanding the game and therefore making conclusions to follow, but I'm just saying by all your own logic you too are scum. Every single one of you on my wagon has made drastic mistakes, claiming 3 drunk trackers, attempting to say two drunks are scum. Attempting to clear Bur while that logic makes zero sense.
Luwl So I make one mistake and its suddenly a "mafia tell"(Which you said was tons of mistakes) then you do this and its all cewl. Sweet logixs bra.
You assumed I was lying, you came up with a reason I was cleared, then scraped it when Anak pointed out the flaws. In the context of this shortened day that is a ton of mistakes.
No dude, your logic is that the mafia would never ever make a claim that someone else already did. So that Bur has to be town, then I also have to be town by this logic. Leaving Megs. I am just saying that this in no way clears Bur. Your logic is appalling.
My logic is that one of the first people you advocated lynching (ready to lynch Megs) than appeared on your townie list, while a player you barely mentioned ended up on your scum list.
I was pretty sure he was scum just because of how he was talking and the fact that my information disagreed with what he said. I also didn't realize that the scum had a legitimate track, I simply made a conclusion about the game and somehow missed that part of the game. I made one mistake and it literally messed up about how I thought about the game from the beginning.
How does the bolded not strengthen your case on me? One of the flaws i pointed out was that I just happened to randomly guess Anak's target correctly, while explaining the three drunk results? If you really believed in your case, this should have been an AHA moment for your vision of me lying as scum.
Luwl So I make one mistake and its suddenly a "mafia tell"(Which you said was tons of mistakes) then you do this and its all cewl. Sweet logixs bra.
You assumed I was lying, you came up with a reason I was cleared, then scraped it when Anak pointed out the flaws. In the context of this shortened day that is a ton of mistakes.
No dude, your logic is that the mafia would never ever make a claim that someone else already did. So that Bur has to be town, then I also have to be town by this logic. Leaving Megs. I am just saying that this in no way clears Bur. Your logic is appalling.
My logic is that one of the first people you advocated lynching (ready to lynch Megs) than appeared on your townie list, while a player you barely mentioned ended up on your scum list.
I was pretty sure he was scum just because of how he was talking and the fact that my information disagreed with what he said. I also didn't realize that the scum had a legitimate track, I simply made a conclusion about the game and somehow missed that part of the game. I made one mistake and it literally messed up about how I thought about the game from the beginning.
How does the bolded not strengthen your case on me? One of the flaws i pointed out was that I just happened to randomly guess Anak's target correctly, while explaining the three drunk results? If you really believed in your case, this should have been an AHA moment for your vision of me lying as scum.
Ok thats like one more so TWO? How is that tons?
Largely like I said it was all because of the assumption that the Mafia did not have a real track target. So, really its one, just one really big mistake.
You know why Bur isn't mentioned? Because he hasn't done anything.
And to answer your final point. This is the worst logic I have ever heard.
I have always hated this logic in this game. "I think person X is scum, therefore no matter what I have to prove it!" Like what? Thoughts should be dynamic not static. People can change their opinions when they see evidence that opposes how they think. Truly if you approach life with the attitude that if you think something you need to prove it and that changing your opinion is bad, then I would encourage you to think otherwise. I have seen ample evidence to me to prove that I am drunk town, furthermore my assumption that the Mafia didn't have a track made me more suspicious that you had to be lying about who you targeted. Then as the rest of the claims came out I felt that there was ample evidence to prove that you were town, which was proven wrong, but with that being said I am back to neutral on you.
I feel that the best approach now is to lynch one of the drunk town. I feel that bur is the best lynch target by a mile.
@D_V - I did see the context in which you posted the "R u 5?" comment, and did say that I might be reading too much into it. Doesn't change the fact that it stood out to me as odd.
As for you not mentioning Bur, you had him as scum from very early on, and say he didn't do anything, yet when he was online and asking about your reasons for tracking GJ and yoir thoughts on Megiddo you never engaged with him. You just answered his questions and moved on. If you were convinced he is scum, why not take the opportunity to ask a few questions of your own?
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
personally I'm taking the over.
I truly don't remember. Doesn't stand out either way in my mind so that tells me that he was solid.
I'm iffy on, Megs. I was more saying that to see his reaction. Still not a 100%.
The only thing I feel that is probable is that 1 mafia is in the "True category" one is in the "False category".
Town
3. Deaths_Vampire
1. Anaklusmos
7. Rhand
4. DoTArchon
6. Megiddo
5. Gentleman Johnny
2. Bur
Mafia
Those are my current readings.
GJ targets Anak > Rhand
Dota targets Megs > GJ
Megs targets GJ > Rhand
Anak targets Rhand > Anak
Rhand targets Anak > Rhand
Death targets GJ > Death
Bur targets GJ > Meggido
It looks like Rhand, Dota, Anak, and myself are sober. Megs, DV, and Bur are drunk. Let's be generous and assume one of the sober trackers got lucky (in would be a statistic anomaly if both drunk trackers got the "correct" result. That means one scum is in the sober pile, and another is in the drunk pile, but let's go further than that and look at DV.
He has myself and Bur as scum reads. Let's assume he is correct about me and I am lying. One of Bur/Death/Meg are actually sober and I am scum. You have the exact same situation. The only difference is that now your "sober trackers" are Dota, Anak, Rhand, and whoever I "actually targeted".
The point I am trying to make though is that for me and Bur to be scum, two drunk trackers apparently got the correct result (which is insanely unlikely) AND I guessed correctly on Anak's target. DV's post about me lying feels more like he was trying to take the town's pulse, and see if he could garner support. His other scum read, he has had zero interaction, apart from:
Like, take a look at those, and compare them to your posts to Meggido. It's why I was initially thinking he was the other person you thought was scum.
Why does it actually matter? I decided to target him before pms were even sent because he is the only player on the list who has been playing longer than me.
Look at this slip. He knows he is a sober tracker. If he thinks I am lying because I was actually the poisoner, why would I not die tomorrow if Rhand/Megs died today?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I think claim order is important here.
Dota targets Megs > GJ
Megs targets GJ > Rhand
GJ targets Anak > Rhand
Anak targets Rhand > Anak
Rhand targets Anak > Rhand
Death targets GJ > Death
Bur targets GJ > Meggido
Also I am 100% convinced that I am drunk town.
I am also making the assumption that no drunk town got a correct result.
Every scenario I run I can't make sense of the three town claims. From GJ Anak and Rhand.
I believe that they are our three real town, and that is the only way that it makes sense to me, because the only one that could be mafia is Anak, and how the hell did he know that Rhand targeted him. Furthermore it would be impossible for them to make other's claims be false since they confirmed each other. Basically if either of them were scum then we would have 5 "True trackers". I feel that this validates TCM because of this and that my suspicion of him(Largely because I got that he targeted me) is unfounded and that he is scum.
This leaves Dota is scum number one. And if I am right, then to me that makes megs scum number two, because they agreed with who they said he targeted. Now he could have gotten lucky, but I don't believe that this is the case at all. Dota is the only non confirmed "True Tracker" in the group and this makes him highly suspect because of this.
With the non true group, being on Megs and Bur. I am inclined to think that it is megs because he confirmed a track that I do not think happened.
Unvote Vote DoTArchon
I feel that this validates TCM because of this and that my suspicion of him(Largely because I got that he targeted me) is unfounded and that he is not scum.
Fixed.
* 2 of the "drunk" results are really drunk, one is the poisoner. The other scum is in the "sober" pile (scum = one of DV, Bur, Megs + one of Anak, GJ, Dota)
* 2 of the "drunk" results are really drunk, GJ is scum and poisoned the third result, GJ's buddy is Anak to provide a track result (scum = GJ + Anak)
* 1 of the "drunk" results is really drunk, one "sober" is drunk and randomed the correct result, one "drunk" is scum and tracked Anak, GJ is scum and poisoned the third "drunk" result (scum = GJ + one of DV, Bur, Megs)
I think that's it?
It basically all means we don't know a thing because occam says scenario 1 is the most likely.
A drunk town somehow getting an accurate result I don't think is possible in those claims. The only way that would be possible is if both scum acted as drunks which I think we can agree doesn't make sense.
Our claiming sorted us into two groups, which is about as far as I thought it would get. I think behavioral analysis is going to have to carry on out for the rest of this day.
Unless the order of claims tells more, but I don't see it.
So why would you possibly vote dota when any of the other three are scum? At best you have a 25% of hitting scum, from your perspective, it makes far more sense to look into the other two drunk claims and figure out which would be scum.
But instead you vote dota. Why? Because on the surface it looks like his claim is the least supported as nobody tracked him, but that's in the same boat as GJ for which you 180'ed on. If you completely believe Rhand and I to be town, then your odds become equal looking in the drunks and true claims. I just do not buy the fact that you would overlook the best chance to Lynch scum if you truly were drunk town.
Voting DV once I figure out how to bold text on mobile
Oh brackets, should have figured that.
That's playing percentages. If you actually read what I said, then Dota has to be scum. Its the only possibility.
And I am like 90% certain that Megs is the other scum because he confirmed a Track that didn't happen. Look at it this way. There were three town that basically confirmed each other. That means that the other "True Tracker" actually can't exist, and its not a possibility that Megs confirmed him. You see what I am saying right? The two mafia are confirming each other.
Furthermore I assume that the Mafia do not have Day chat, this makes Dota going first an advantage for the mafia team, because with the way that he set up the claims, all he had to do is say he targeted his mafia member and then they just had to say yeah thats right. Making him appear town. Now there is a slight chance that he guessed and got lucky with Megs, which is why I am not 100% on board with Megs, but I am a 100% certain following this logic Dota has to be mafia.
Going to think about your last post more, but I want to confirm you know that because currently I don't see how dota is confirmed scum. Will think some more though.
God DAMNIT
How did I skip over this.
Disregard everything I said.
Unvote
Currently I believe that Bur is the best lynch.
I'll get back tomorrow on why.
The other scum is somewhere in the Rhand/Anak/Dota perfect track. I am not getting enough Anak/Dota to make me feel better, but we should deal with them tomorrow.
@Meg: Why is one of my prime suspects in your town clear pile?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Maybe I'm too drunk but by this logic the only person that could be scum is Megs. Like no just no. I heavily dislike this post.
So you're saying that Bur must be scum?
It can be you or Megs or GJ + Anak if Bur isn't scum btw. You're jumping to weird conclusions here.
You were ready to lynch him after his balking on claiming, why did this stance suddenly change to no way scum could be Megs?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
anak I guess could be scum here due to the vote but they way they interacted tells me they at least aren't BOTH scum.
That said, I hate lurkers, and will lynch Bur if he doesn't post by tonight. If he is town, I feel zero remorse. DOn't sign up for a micro if you can't post at least once a day. It's not like we do a page a day or anything.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Nothing much here, the vote makes sense and accidentally putting GJ at L-1 was explained in his next post.
Instead of suggesting random as some other players had, he suggests reverse alphabetical, which would put him third last on the claim list.
These two posts feel redundant, like he was posting for the sake of appearing active.
In hindsight the bolded stands out, like he was already setting up his "GJ must be scum!" claim which comes later. This alone is reason enough to believe he's scum.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm doing this at work, this is taking longer than I expected,
and I'm running out of time. I'm going to try and cut to the highlights for the rest of this
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interestingly, a post that mentions both other "drunks", with one as neutral and one as scum.
@D_V: Did you ever reveal this other info you mentioned above?
He asks Megs if he's reading this game when he clearly isn't himself. I had made my claim of both target and result with an explanation as to why I was doing so. He must have not read it. We also covered the "Who is TCM?" back on page one. In fact, here's where I brought it up:
Nowhere before this does he suggest that GJ might be lying, so why is he telling me I'm forgetting something he hasn't mentioned?
---
I love this bit:
WAIT FOR IT... GJ is scum, and he either got very lucky in guessing who Anak targeted, or Anak is his teammate. But Anak is solidly in the townpile. {insert Jackie Chan confused face here}
And now GJ AND Anak are definite town. And he admits to suspecting GJ because OMGUS. And now I'm 100% guaranteed scum by his logic. While everyone else is discussing the three drunks and who could be the lying scum between them, this is D_V's second attempt to start a wagon on a player outside of that pool.
Page 1, post 2. Xyre's explanation of the setup is quite clear. Just like with GJ, he gets no support for my wagon and drops it in favour of:
Unvote
Vote: Death's_Vampire
lynch - 1
The best part is that if he's indeed scum, then his buddy that gave us a real result toDay will have to make one up toMorrow
read his posts and ask yourself if but has done ANYTHING to try and solve the game.
a n y t h i n g
d_v I can buy as a guy who is just not that good throwing things out there to see what sticks. but he's trying to solve.
Bur spent the majority of his posts this game on a pointless questioning endeavor that he's done absolutely nothing with, and now he's lurking it out (though I recall him declaring v/la at some point).
like if Bur doesn't show up here today with some bomb ass analysis he should just be lynched.
even if he does show up with bomb ass analysis I'm probably still going to want to lynch him.
read bur posts. lynch bur scum.
d_v is in my experience the exact kind of player who would do this kind of stuff as town.
read this. it will take you ten minutes if you never progressed past grade school reading level.
tell me how Bur is town.
(4 to lynch)
Anaklusmos - 1 (Bur)
Megiddo - 1 (Rhand)
Bur - 1 (Megiddo)
Deaths_Vampire - 3 (Gentleman Johnny, Anaklusmos, DoTArchon)
NV: Deaths_Vampire
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
1) Early on D_V mentions Bur lurking, and that this "screams mafia". He also puts him solidly in the scum category of his T-S list. Yet through all their interactions he never pursues this. It's only once his attempted wagons on GJ and myself don't gain traction that he brings it up again.
2) I find it hard to believe that all three drunks targeted GJ. When D_V and Bur claimed they would know that Megs is drunk and that the other drunk had an accurate result. By both claiming to have targeted GJ it creates a situation in which GJ could be lying, which D_V did try and push.
This next bit is pure speculation and probably the weakest point of my case here but one I think could have relevance. The "R u 5?" comment made during the argument with Megiddo. It looks out of place. If I were scum I would have come up with a list of possible claim situations during night 0 and used a numbering system that you could refer to during the day to indicate how to go about claiming. Considering the setup it would be in the scum's best interest to have some way to co-ordinate.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
also are you suggesting that d_v was communicating in code with... me?
I thought it was 3 drunk, 2 sober. I read the opening post and realized it was the opposite.
So 3 sober, 2 drunk.... Actually that doesn't change anything. I still think there is 1 scum in each pile, it just means that the statistics actually make sense and a drunk tracker didn't get a correct result.
I think I was stuck on three, due to all 3 tracks on me being drunk. I just justfied the numbers by assuming one of the drunk trackers RNGed the correct target.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Both scum being in the drunk pile makes more sense now, but it is still unlikely. Why do you think I was tying DV to you? o-0
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Because if we change the claim order each Day, he'll slip sooner or later.
Days are short enough as they are. No need to shorten them more.
@GJ: It is more likely that there is a 1/1 split, I just think we need to keep the possibility in mind should we lynch correctly today. One of the two flipping scum should not be an automatic pass for the other, unless we have no further drunks show up.
Luwl So I make one mistake and its suddenly a "mafia tell"(Which you said was tons of mistakes) then you do this and its all cewl. Sweet logixs bra.
No dude, your logic is that the mafia would never ever make a claim that someone else already did. So that Bur has to be town, then I also have to be town by this logic. Leaving Megs. I am just saying that this in no way clears Bur. Your logic is appalling.
I am mostly convinced Megs isn't scum over the last couple days. Either that or hes playing better.
@Dota I don't play the game you want me to play. I've never gotten this logic, person X put forth an argument, and looked for others to see if he was right, he must be scum! I do this all the time its part of having a conversation. Also how is that the R U 5 comment out of place? It was at megs for freaking out. I actually question your read of the whole thing for not picking up on that. Its like you haven't been reading this game at all. You pulled my posts out on their own, with no context. I am actually amazed.
I was pretty sure he was scum just because of how he was talking and the fact that my information disagreed with what he said. I also didn't realize that the scum had a legitimate track, I simply made a conclusion about the game and somehow missed that part of the game. I made one mistake and it literally messed up about how I thought about the game from the beginning.
I don't know man, he clearly said I was the best lynch target.
Unvote Vote Bur
I'm for lynching the player doing zero in this game.
Some comments before I die.
Bur is scum.
If I die and nobody else does GJ is scum.(I don't think this likely because I am certain I am drunk town, also some really wonky stuff would have had to happen)
Rhand not lynching me is worrying a town with that read would just instantly go. Also his defense of Bur is very troubling to me.
I also dislike Dot Archons attempt to only go after the three drunks. This is also troubling.
Ya'll can lynch me for misunderstanding the game and therefore making conclusions to follow, but I'm just saying by all your own logic you too are scum. Every single one of you on my wagon has made drastic mistakes, claiming 3 drunk trackers, attempting to say two drunks are scum. Attempting to clear Bur while that logic makes zero sense.
You assumed I was lying, you came up with a reason I was cleared, then scraped it when Anak pointed out the flaws. In the context of this shortened day that is a ton of mistakes.
My logic is that one of the first people you advocated lynching (ready to lynch Megs) than appeared on your townie list, while a player you barely mentioned ended up on your scum list.
How does the bolded not strengthen your case on me? One of the flaws i pointed out was that I just happened to randomly guess Anak's target correctly, while explaining the three drunk results? If you really believed in your case, this should have been an AHA moment for your vision of me lying as scum.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Ok thats like one more so TWO? How is that tons?
Largely like I said it was all because of the assumption that the Mafia did not have a real track target. So, really its one, just one really big mistake.
You know why Bur isn't mentioned? Because he hasn't done anything.
And to answer your final point. This is the worst logic I have ever heard.
I have always hated this logic in this game. "I think person X is scum, therefore no matter what I have to prove it!" Like what? Thoughts should be dynamic not static. People can change their opinions when they see evidence that opposes how they think. Truly if you approach life with the attitude that if you think something you need to prove it and that changing your opinion is bad, then I would encourage you to think otherwise. I have seen ample evidence to me to prove that I am drunk town, furthermore my assumption that the Mafia didn't have a track made me more suspicious that you had to be lying about who you targeted. Then as the rest of the claims came out I felt that there was ample evidence to prove that you were town, which was proven wrong, but with that being said I am back to neutral on you.
I feel that the best approach now is to lynch one of the drunk town. I feel that bur is the best lynch target by a mile.
As for you not mentioning Bur, you had him as scum from very early on, and say he didn't do anything, yet when he was online and asking about your reasons for tracking GJ and yoir thoughts on Megiddo you never engaged with him. You just answered his questions and moved on. If you were convinced he is scum, why not take the opportunity to ask a few questions of your own?
I asked earlier but you might have missed it in the middle of my text wall, have you revealed what this information yet?