Reading this on mobile while drunk on my bachelor party because it seems like a good idea. The "WHAT THR **** GUYS PLZ POST" post by GJ seemed forced but the rest of the effort for his analysis seemed genuine. I know my own lynch is an auto lose for the town so I'm limited to Seppel/Proph/Taredas/GJ and I think that's my order. I'm really mad at the Az lynch yesterday and I'm especially mad because it was caused by a indecisive, inconfident Cyan. Which is his modus operandi as town lately. Look at how much he's moved his vote between two players the last two days. He had no idea what he was doing even if he was the Towniest player.
I'm sorry I'm VLA until Sunday-ish. I'm going to get really drunk tomorrow.
Glhf
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Thanks for the DCIII/Taredas PBPA. It makes me feel better about him. I'd only put that slot as scum with GJ. If someone else PBPA's DCIII/Taredas, this can be further singled out. As for GJ himself, I still don't know. He comes off as slimy, but then there's things like his response to my PBPA on him which feel so genuine.
I just can't get over Jobie's flawed reasoning for not liking a NL.
I have no desire to lynch Chris or Proph, but I would like Proph to post more.
The scum deserve this win, truly. The lurkiness is real, and while I understand holidays are a thing, merely keeping up with the thread and thinking about what was typed is not that difficult. It took me all of 10 minutes to think about Proph's Cythare/Jobie case, and maybe another 10 for my response. I understand it's the holidays, and maybe I am not putting enough stock into schedules getting complicated (finals are next week for most high schools after all) but COME ON. I don't need a bloody novel everytime you post, just an explanation of where your mind set is.
Yeah, I'm here procrastinating on those Seppel/GJ rereads. I should have time to do them either tonight or tomorrow.
Quote from Taredas »
First thought: At this point... either I have a bad townread/anti-alignment read or GJ has to be scum by PoE? I'm town, Proph is very likely town given how he attacked Az (flipped town), Sir Chris... *could* be scum but that means that he tried to break up town-on-town fights *twice*, both times involving strong townies (Iso/Az D1, Az/Cyan D2) *and* turbobussed Wheat D1 (possible), and I doubt Seppel and Jobie are both scum given how Seppel approached the early Cythare wagon - that could be scum-on-town but I don't think it's a scumbuddy interaction. That leaves either GJ/Jobie or GJ/Seppel, and both of those are GJ teams.
This is the struggle I'm having right now.
The razor says that GJ is just scum. He would fit the candidate whom I've expressed multiple times throughout this game - a savvy scum player worming up to my townreads, bad Wheat interactions, plus the fact that I think Jobie is maybe town. But I've liked his behavior throughout Today - he's given solid reasoning as to why he thinks I'm town and I liked his #1756.
I think I'm going to try and do the zindabad endgame strategy of summary and analysis since I've seen it work well for him in the past.
@GJ: I think you pointed out most of the issues I had with Cythare/Jobie, but what do you think of his "total confidence breaker" post? That post rang as very natural and genuine and it feels odd to me that you chose not to talk about it.
Quote from GJ »
The proph switch is fine from a town perspective he got wrong, but I don't understand how Az randomly jumped into his 2nd most likely scum pile after a few posts. His scum lists didn't seem contingent on particular interactions, short of his Proph wagon analysis. Wouldn't the natural switch be to pushing Seppel/Taredas? Why would it be impossible for them to be scum together in town Jobie's world?
I think if you read his "total confidence breaker" then his random switch ends up making a lot more sense. Jobie just basically lost all confidence after everyone scumread him for that post and so he's just following others instead of his own reads.
I like Chris's analysis of Jobie/Cythare's posts and it gives me more things to think about. Chris, can you give me some examples of Jobie being manipulative in Avant Garde? I want to see if he can fake a genuine post like that (unlikely, but want to cover all bases).
@Seppel: What do you think of my Jobie reread post?
Can you quote the post you are referencing please?
But going by your paraphrase: "Jobie just basically lost all confidence after everyone scumread him for that post and so he's just following others instead of his own reads.", how is that in anyway indicative of town?
My follow-up to everyone's reaction was following a total confidence breaker. I went from having great confidence in my reads to having no confidence at all. Having a lot of players I respect and believe are better analysts than me ***** on my first "case" made me turtle. I haven't had time to rethink any of my reads (B1G Ten Championship game + Wedding Prep + my Final (hopefully) Finals week of Grad school = negative time), so that's why I haven't given a defense of my standpoint. My plan for today, now, is to follow along with everyone's cases and try to determine who I agree with most. My ability (both time and confidence) to build a case during this game-day is going to be limited.
The post just feels so... real to me. It's a very good window into Jobie's mindset and given that I've experienced what he described here in previous games I.. think Jobie is town? Pending Chris's response to how well he can fake it.
He could be feeling all of those things, the stress of his wedding, the championship, his finals, and that could all be 100% truth (which I absolutely believe him). That doesn't mean he is automatically town, and it is by far one of the easiest ways to show a more stream of conscious thought process.
As far as your read on me, I don't know what to tell you. If you assume you think if Jobie is more town, Seppel/GJ make the scum team, unless you think Taredas could be scum. How does that calculate at all? Why do I not just hang strong Seppel day 2, rather than get flakey with him and WG? Why if I am such a strong "savvy" scum player do I not rein it in firm, rather than look indecisive on either wagon?
I cut a few posts I mentioned about Seppel before, but here is the last one:
Seppel
Quote from Seppel »
I can read Azrael better than anyone else, so please trust my read on him.
True Name Nemesis came back and we found out that was a lie.
Quote from Seppel »
4. I can't confirm, but I'll trust but verify. Have we played a game together with Az?
If the first post was actually serious, how do you not remember Az/Iso in the same game that was played relatively recently?
Azrael: what did you see?
My vote on Cythare is just to add pressure. Seems like it did the job?
This is where I want it:
Unvote, vote Gentleman Johnny
Best vote NA? Bandwagony as hell.
I on the other hand completely agree with Chris's reasoning for GJ's sliminess. I was even going to type it.
Boy, would that have been a great way to lead your vote.
This is the next wagon I want to pursue:
Unvote, vote Proph
Wheat reminded me that Proph is scum.
Interaction with Wheat. My gut says unaligned my pair, but Seppel has barned buddies in the past. No original reason for jumping on this wagon.
Unvote, vote ZDS. When ZDS is the lurker you know you have problems.
ZDS already stated his activity was going to be low regardless of alignment.
SCUM DETECTED
WOOP WOOP WOOP
Vote ZDS
Another reasonless vote.
It's annoying that nobody is scumreading me and just a few people are being suspicious of me and DOING NOTHING ABOUT IT.
Seppel could make this post as either alignment. He really isn't doing anything towards his scum reads either.
That's a crap excuse for having terrible posts throughout the entire game.
If this was the case, why not quote one for the case you were running.
You know I kind of think Wheat might be scum trying to act like he's busing a partner in an effort to chain a mislynch onto me.
This sounds really fake. I doubt most scum think that far ahead. There are people that were voting you and trying to lynch you before Wheat tried anything towards you.
Unvote, vote Wheat
Chris convinced me.
I find myself scrolling past all of Proph's posts without reading them.
Interaction with WG. No actual questions asked.
Here's my list:
TOWN
DCIII
Sir Chris
I DON'T KNOW
Azrael
Cyan
Cythare
Gentleman Johnny
Prophylaxis
Rhand
SCUM
Wheat_Grinder
List as of early day 2. Only his barn of Chris is the only strong town vote placed. Way too many null reads for my tastes.
Quote from Wheat_Grinder »
I don't think Seppel actually believes I'm scum.
His post 945 absolutely REEKS of trying to push through a mislynch before the tide turns away from it. Technically, yes, we can afford one more mislynch, but I just don't see that attitude coming from a town!Seppel when we haven't lynched a scum yet. It feels more like trying to push people into making a mistake before they have a chance to think about it and then deal with the fallout once it's already happened.
Re: The question I asked Taredas: Yes, despite the apparent hypocrisy, I still want the answer.
They are literally talking past each other, but not really interacting. No points towards each other, no challenges, ect ect.
I was about to ask what the hell you're talking about, but apparently ZDS flipped town.
That means there's still three scum alive.
Also it's only Day 2 somehow.
I think I may need to read this game.
Response to WG's post, his next immediate post:
Also I don't think wheat is scum anymore.
Chris reminded me of the town thing he did on day 1 and he's not acting scummy with my hooby jooby attack on him
Read it again, and tell me what you think of Seppel. Moving on, the next few posts are his cases...
The tone of this bugs me. But there's nothing specifically incorrect with the facts. I just don't believe you really felt that way
This is his response to my explanation of the hammer. Taredas did a similar thing, so I don't know, but he thinks I am lying. Why doesn't he vote me at this stage? What reason do I have to lie as town about why I ended up hammering ZDS?
Huh. Chris might actually be scum. I might actually have to review him.
@Chris: I don't hunt teams. I hunt players. When I hit a scum, then I can talk about teams. You say Az and Wheat can't be buddies together? I don't see that, but regardless, they're both scum to me. I see no sense in confirming additional theories of buddies until the original basis of "X is scum" is proven. They're not scum together? Great, don't care. Going off that suggestion, one of them is scum (or I suck hard at hunting), and I want to lynch one of them anyway.
Your disappointment in my Wheat case is worthless. If you actually read through it, you would see that there's only one point where he acts town, and that's near present day. I judge people based on how definitively townie I can place them. Show me the towniness, and someone is clear. I saw 1,000 posts of crap surrounding Wheat, and the notion that you're simultaneously dissing my case while still saying "uh yeah Wheat's still scum guys" is the most underhanded thing I've seen from you all game. Wheat's play throughout the entire game has been disappointing and I think it's a slam dunk case that HIS READS WERE THE SAME ON HIS SECOND POST AS THEY WERE IN POST #1000-WHATEVER.
Chris I think I just caught you. You've lost all sense and the only person so far off into space to hear you is Cyan.
If he knew that WG would flip scum, this could easily be an opening to potentially push SC, especially after SC relented on WG and became more intersted in Seppel for the day 2 lynch.
Who I think people will be voting for
Cyan - Seppel
Rhand - Seppel
Chris - Seppel
Wheat - Seppel
Az - Leaning Seppel
Cythare - ???
GJ - Leaning Wheat
Seppel - Wheat
Taredas - Wheat
This means that we're really at a standstill.
The good news, at least, is that we can reach a no-lynch and there's no harm to the game state. Bonus: all the claimed PRs want me lynched. A claimed PR is most likely going to die tonight. We can power through a Wheat lynch by no-lynching, forcing the mafia to kill a PR, then finally going through with the Wheat lynch.
Something notable about this day is that it's been going on for a LONG time, and there have been some heated debates. This is the time where scum burn out and usually feel helpless to contribute because they just want a lynch and they don't want to have to work for the win. I think it would be really cool to compare word count from players from the early D2 to the late D2 and see if most scum really can't keep up. Postgame exercise!
Oh also I saw something that I need to point out to Cyan. One sec.
I can't shake how terribly I feel about this post, especially when the scum have the next 2-3 nks line up pretty well. It wasn't like the mafia nightkill me or Proph. If there are scum spreading the ladder, I don't see why there isn't a shift one way to the other, if one of the two wagons was a townie. Cyan's dueling scum wagons theory makes more and more sense.
Hey Cyan, do you see how little effort Wheat is putting into the game right now? Like, compare himself and you. You're still actively posting, and Wheat has burned out. He's just hoping this lynch will go through because he's exhausted his ability to keep up appearances.
It's almost as if he knows Wheat's alignment.
• ALL of the claimed PRs want to vote me.
• A PR is pretty much guaranteed to die tonight.
My first reaction was that no scum would be that blatant about their own survival. And then I realized it was Seppel I was casing.
@Cyan: Is this a slip? Please tell me it is. I don't remember anyone ever saying you were 1-shot.
Le sigh.
Great, so it looks like I'm going to have to live to the endgame, which means it's my fault if we get this wrong.
I'm not feeling GJ for scum. Well, not for any of the reasons that anyone brought up. It's possible to make bad arguments against a scum.
Cyan, Chris, Proph, Taredas: All town.
GJ, Jobie, Azrael: Not fully convinced of towniness.
Actually, yeah, that does make it autowin.
If he is town, he believed that his top two scum reads just said **** it all, and tried to lead the charge after Proph instead, when momentum from the end of day 2 clearly favored a Seppel lynch day 3, especially with Cyan still being alive. Despite being "auto-win" there is no single push onto either of these wagons. Day 2, he was convinced that Az/WG were scum together, and now he is entertaining Jobie/me as well.
@Jobie: I am not considering Cyan for scum. So I don't care.
GJ's attack on me makes no sense, but I am like a book that has been taken from the library. So I don't care.
Azrael > Jobie > GJ
No response or chase at all. He is literally coasting at this stage, when he just admitted before we are not in auto-win.
Also I'm not today's lynch, just fyi. We lose autowin status if we lynch me, so I can't let that happen.
If you need me to 100% find another scum in order to not lynch me, let me know. I'm checked out, but I will put in the effort if necessary.
......there is no way he doesn't realize the lynch for day 3 is a toss-up between him and Az, with Cyan switching back, Chris wanting to lynch him before Az, and Taredas saying he is fine hammering him. Hell, even Proph who was from what I remember, still town reading Seppel at this spot would have lynched Seppel. He should also know which one of three people he should be pushing for his potential case, and Az was his top scum read a while ago with nothing seemingly changing. But right after...
Also, please note that I wasn't on the Az wagon.
Vote No Lynch
I can't in any world, imagine that he doesn't see Sir Chris dying for free, or the scum just choosing not to nightkill if it was that up in the air for potential mis-lynches.
Also he's voting me even though (1) Az thoroughly cased me as incredibly townie and Jobie has done nothing to disprove it; (2) I wasn't on the Az wagon; (3) I fought hard to get Wheat lynched.
I respect Azrael a lot, and look up to him as a veteran, and mean the following with no disrespect towards him: Az was wrong on literally every other front imaginable. He tunneled so hard on me, that he couldn't figure out any partner that would make sense with me being scum, he thought Rhand was scum, he was town reading me, and was back and forth between null, scum, and town on Seppel the day before, and went into both his Seppel read and GJ read with a mind set of the former being town, and the latter being scum, with it being impossible for us to be partners.
Anyone who still thinks I'm scum is either scum or a bat***** insane townie who needs to get off MTGS and go back to EpicMafia.
I would like to remind the viewers at home that this post comes from the same player who said he would quote his role pm to get modkilled to force a lynch (as a neutral) so this type of emotional response can easily be faked from a non-town standpoint.
Minor point in my favor. The lynch went through and I wasn't on it. The stuff Az posted about me is a lot more compelling than that.
I don't know why anyone would think this is a point in their favor.
There's a small voice in my head that says GJ is innocent, but I know he could very easily do all the things he's done as scum.
I have exactly one tell as mafia, and it doesn't even involve my behavior. Post game, remind me and I will share it with you. I think Iso knows it, but I don't recall if I mentioned it or not.
Who are you even talking about?
Probably the fact that the people posting today are me + Chris, and we get a sparkler from Proph every now and then. The people I am trying to narrow down as scum, are doing the least amount of posting, and we are in mislynch or lose. Not everyone is lurking is scum, and its the holidays, but I am just getting really on edge. This is the closest I have ever gotten to tilting in a game of mafia.
Hey Taredas what made you change your mind about the 96 hour thing? I can understand explaining yourself but you don't seem the type to just go 'okay, time to lynch without letting anyone discuss things further.' Like if I didn't know better, and I don't, it seems like you saw a chance to get Az lynched and like leaped at it before anyone could think better of it.
Because I thought I was putting him to L-1, not lynching him.
(Somebody yesterDay mentioned "now we're waiting for Proph and Tare to get back" and I thought Az was at L-2 given that.)
Here is really the only thing that stood out in 4+ pages of iso:
As someone who was frequently lynched as town for playing like *****, I disagree with that theory. Let's move on from Cyan for today and potentially come back to him later. I just feel like its not something that can be referred to as "concrete". I really don't like W_Gs dismissive tone in the last few pages after really liking him on Day 1.
The fake empathy he had towards Cyan and the mercy displayed is rather scary.
He is also, generally speaking, what I would refer to as lovably snarky in his interaction with people. He bats Seppel around for a bit in the middle of his isolation to my deep amusement and has gifs on the ready and is rather relaxed. So really different here overall when comparing them on top of each other. He does mention that I helped him break his scum meta and as has been mentioned he is undoubtedly under real stress outside of this game which can easily bleed into it.
Based purely on strength of play this is PoE'd into Seppel/Jobie. GJ has played well. But I am ... not the type of person who concedes games to strong scum players. It's not in my nature. I do not believe in the phrase 'if I have been outplayed, oh well.' It makes me sick to my stomach. Therefore, I am thinking still.
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I mean if GJ is scum he just wants it more right now. It's so hard to overcome a difference in want in the game of mafia. One of the things that I used to be really proud of back in 'the day' is whenever I made it to end game I stepped it into overdrive to enforce my will onto people as town. I made them see how much the game meant to me. By that metric GJ must be town, because it's really hard for scum to push it into overdrive as the game goes along. GJ has shown a level of intensity that is commendable. He is helping to drive the game. God the cheek required to hammer day one like he did is amazing as scum. I think Cyan referred to GJ's possible scum game yesterday as "next level" and that sounds about right. God even his reaction to my vote today was genuine seeming.
... and yet. He hard defended Wheat against my wrath. Like Cythare, like, Seppel, at the moment of truth day one he went the wrong way. But someone who did this has to be town. I really want to win this game. When your most active and most driven player is scum that tends to end badly for town, I should know I've done it to towns before. Is this performance by GJ that, though? Does GJ's game remind me of my own scum games? ... No, not really.
Okay, GJ isn't scum. This game is fully PoE'd.
##unvote: GJ
Jobie and Seppel, convince me otherwise.
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@Chris: GJ is actively avoiding responding to Az's case on me. If he really wanted to be taken seriously, he would respond to that case instead of ignoring it and just cherry picking posts while ignoring my obscene towniness.
I refuse to respond to him until he responds to Az's case on me, in full. There's no excuse for his behavior.
If you can't get it through your head by now that I'm town, then we deserve to lose this game. I literally should not even be under consideration for lynch at all.
So your defense on me is basically: "But az said I was town"...
@Taredas: I am about 90% sure that Seppel/Jobie is the final combination, with any doubt about your spot being cleared up with my re-read. If you asked me which one I was less sure about, it would be Jobie. If I am wrong about him though, I have no idea who would make more sense.
But just for you, let's highlight some of that case:
Az's responses. First post will be the section Seppel started with, second part will be az so I don't have to requote everything with names:
Vote Sir Chris for being the most dangerous person if he's scum.
Healthy town paranoia to start with.
"Healthy Town Paranoia"
Holy crap I have a townread on Chris.
Self-consistent with first post.
Wheat was also pretty consistent in who he was reading as scum. It doesn't make it a town tell, it just means that in one of the more swingier days, his reads were static.
Azrael: what did you see?
My vote on Cythare is just to add pressure. Seems like it did the job?
This is where I want it:
Unvote, vote Gentleman Johnny
Hmm. I don't think I have a problem with any of this.
Has no problem with Seppel jumping on a wagon gaining steam with almost zero reason.
This is the next wagon I want to pursue:
Unvote, vote Proph
Wheat reminded me that Proph is scum.
*thinks* No problem with this either.
So seppel has jumped on the three wagons, all three times with little to no interaction, and Azrael thinks this is just fine with a town Seppel, and not scum Seppel.
I'm not sure why I thought this was so golden. It's definitely a townie reaction, but it's fakable, at least by Chris. See, Chris, instead of giving in to pressure and trying to come up with some read on me, says that it's impossible to come up with a read on me based on the few posts I've made so far. There's just pure indignation in regards to having enough time to scumhunt me. He even points out that I haven't done anything that aligns with either my town or scum meta, which is a neat thing to add -- it shows that he's thinking about me subjectively (townie thinking) instead of trying to find reasons that will fit whether or not it's a good time to push a lynch on me (scum thinking).
So yeah. Chris is a good faker, but I don't think he was faking.
The reasoning on this Chris read is very sharp, very thoughtful. Not likely to be faked.
It is a good post. It isn't impossible for scum to have sharp/thoughtful thinking either.
Or we could lynch Iso to guarantee that Az and Cyan get a shot off. Rhand BGs Cyan, and Az fires into the crowd.
I suppose I can't really fault him for his logic on viewing Iso as the foil to all the other power roles. It's a logic that makes sense, if you start with the assumption that Ged isn't going to play mind games with you. Which is a silly assumption to make, as it happens, but not really one I can blame him for.
It is literally, almost identical to Wheat's interaction which started off as "OMG, REDIRECTOR, SCUMMMMM!"
*sigh* Seppel killing off ZDS.
*thinks*
With Seps thinking that WG was likely town, and ZDS lurking as hard as he was, and Seppel making comments regarding that (omitted from my PBPA), this flows pretty naturally.
I was also town reading WG, and yet my switch was scummy. More proof that Seppel went into this read thinking you were town, and made the posts fir his narrative.
Pot, kettle. Lynch this guy. This post is an Iso scumpost.
Yeah, I can't blame him for any of these reactions, given his starting assumptions. And they don't seem faked.
What's there to fake?
Uh huh.
Unvote, vote ZDS.
Retaliatory vote on ZDS for ZDS saying seppel's clueless on scum-reads. A pretty cheeky Seppel-ism. Bad play, but consistent with his personality.
So, it's bad play, but its Seppel.
Nobody is talking about anything that interests me. This page was a slog to read. Someone PBPA me or something. I'm dying here.
I would call this post a tier 1 town tell.^^
Very natural, a sentiment that isn't usually something the scum creatively fake, occurring outside the range of time where scum fake early town tells on purpose, fits within the context of what was going on, genuine townie emotional markers.
What Azrael doesn't mention is that Seppel is not doing anything to steer the conversation into anything he wants to talk to. Seppel is almost as good on defense as I am. This was also made day 1, when there has been almost little chat made towards him ,meaning Seppel would know the odds of anything incriminating him without a scum flip are almost non-existent.
oh we lynched ZDS I had this window open for a while
yay
Seppel still failing to realize the obvious mislynch. *head shake*
This is how you can tell the Az case was spoiled: A clear case of I am reading these posts only from a townies perspective. This is a null post as best, and again, easily faked.
Actually Az is probably town because I don't think he would bus his only remaining buddy for no reason.
Back when he had a correct read on me. Aside from the correctness, which I'm obviously partial towards, it shows him organically drawing conclusions off his declared reads. +Town
I really don't see how Seppel's post makes any sense to draw as a conclusion as town, when no scum are revealed at this stage.
Conclusion: Hard scum. There's nothing that could explain away this mountain of scumminess.
This, RE: WG.
Completely townish sentiment,here, and throughout the balance of the PBPA on Wheat.
Day 2 was EITHER WHEAT OR SEPPEL. LOOKING FLAKY ON WG WOULD HAVE ENDED WITH HIM DEAD. And if he knew WG would flip scum, then he clearly knew where to poke. Proph makes a good mention of why this case looks worse than SC and my own.
Quote from Azrael »
Next up, Proph, and GJ (aka, the scum).
He isn't even trying to hide how biased he went into these read(s). He read seppel with the thought process of he iws town, because Proph/GJ are scum. Almost every step of Az's case was like he was trying to make excuses for why Seppel's play was turrible, but somehow town.
If that is what you got from analysis of Az, my own analysis, and any post of mine since day 2, you should know how my read of you has been going. You have literally pushed in no direction for the last two days, despite the game being auto win, and you are making no attempt to solve it. No comment on Proph's case, no comment on my case on Jobie or you, and not attempting to dissuade anyone about how townie you are. We are in a mislynch or lose situation, and you seemed content to just coast by.
No feedback on Proph's case on Jobie, or criticism.
No attempt to push me through, as you seem to have it set me/Jobie/Proph are the three that need to die for a town win.
No attempt to push anything. You seem to be waiting to see where the town falls on for today, and seem content to just sit on Az's read of you.
If that is what you got from analysis of Az, my own analysis, and any post of mine since day 2, you should know how my read of you has been going. You have literally pushed in no direction for the last two days, despite the game being auto win, and you are making no attempt to solve it. No comment on Proph's case, no comment on my case on Jobie or you, and not attempting to dissuade anyone about how townie you are. We are in a mislynch or lose situation, and you seemed content to just coast by.
No feedback on Proph's case on Jobie, or criticism.
No attempt to push me through, as you seem to have it set me/Jobie/Proph are the three that need to die for a town win.
No attempt to push anything. You seem to be waiting to see where the town falls on for today, and seem content to just sit on Az's read of you.
You ere totally fine with me day 2 and were talking very politely to me. So this sudden change in stance is very weird.
I had slight doubts, so I checked back into both DCIII and Taredas to relieve them. Proph and Chris could probably be cleared off of Wheat alone, that literally leaves you and Jobie, unless I am wrong about one of the three clears.
Something is ****ed in our PoE. I can't put my finger on it because I haven't had time to put effort in, but please for the love of god don't speed lynch me just because I'm an easy mark.
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I don't know how yesterday makes sense without you being scum, Seppel. What was going on there?
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And by yesterday, I of course meant day 2 because I have erased the Az lynch from my mind.
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I don't know how yesterday makes sense without you being scum, Seppel. What was going on there?
Yesterday the day where everyone but me and some other person weren't voting Azrael. What are you talking about?
Hi. That was me. You guys really think the major possible scum pair decided it would be a great idea to defend the major wagon of the day and try to deter his lynch?
That's silly to me.
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First things first: I took a look over Sir Chris again... and I'm just being paranoid and he's town. Again, it's the negative space thing - there's a certain kind of post Sir Chris does when he's not defending himself/attacking a player and it tends to be questioning when Sir Chris is town but it's jokey and not questioning when Sir Chris is scum, and from the second half of Day 1 on those posts are questioning in this game. I'm not 100% confident in this, but I'm confident enough to bet the game on it.
Also, Sir Chris isn't scum because two other players are. More on that in just a moment.
I mean if GJ is scum he just wants it more right now. It's so hard to overcome a difference in want in the game of mafia. One of the things that I used to be really proud of back in 'the day' is whenever I made it to end game I stepped it into overdrive to enforce my will onto people as town. I made them see how much the game meant to me. By that metric GJ must be town, because it's really hard for scum to push it into overdrive as the game goes along. GJ has shown a level of intensity that is commendable. He is helping to drive the game. God the cheek required to hammer day one like he did is amazing as scum. I think Cyan referred to GJ's possible scum game yesterday as "next level" and that sounds about right. God even his reaction to my vote today was genuine seeming.
... and yet. He hard defended Wheat against my wrath. Like Cythare, like, Seppel, at the moment of truth day one he went the wrong way. But someone who did this has to be town. I really want to win this game. When your most active and most driven player is scum that tends to end badly for town, I should know I've done it to towns before. Is this performance by GJ that, though? Does GJ's game remind me of my own scum games? ... No, not really.
Okay, GJ isn't scum. This game is fully PoE'd.
##unvote: GJ
Jobie and Seppel, convince me otherwise.
I think you're dead wrong about GJ.
Well, okay, you're right that GJ is the most motivated player in the game for most of the Day. That was probably inevitable given the surviving players and how the end of yesterDay went down; I've been having trouble getting a solid read on the setup until the last 48 hours and my motivation is a bit fried (mostly because of the Az flip - I thought I had put Az to L-1 and I came back a couple of hours later to find not only that he had been lynched - I didn't process that *I* was the hammer until early toDay - but that he had FINALLY dropped the kind of "you believe he's scum" case on a player that I'd been waiting to see from him the *entire game*; I damn near replaced out after that), Proph's generally isn't the kind of born town leader who can take over a game, Jobie's V/LA, and you... uh, I'm not entirely sure, but you haven't taken over this game toDay.
But at this point? GJ's scum, and Seppel's his buddy.
That's mostly due to the last couple of pages, actually - there's two key reasons why GJ and Seppel are scumbuddies, and both showed up within the last 72 hours. The first is GJ's case for Jobie in 1728, because my overriding impression of that case is that GJ doesn't actually believe Jobie is scum. That's my most reliable tell these days, because most scum have trouble faking sincerity when attacking townies. More importantly, GJ's attack on Seppel and his attack on Wheat back in 932 *DON'T* give me that impression. That's important, because scum appearing sincere on some attacks but not others usually means they are scum with the players they are attacking sincerely (Fadeblue in A3!), and Wheat flipped scum.
The only problem is, I've been off tonally a couple of times this game - most notably on Rhand's attack on me D2 (also on Seppel's attacks on Az and Wheat D2, but that's easier to explain - I've run across a couple of players, notably AE, who sound more sincere attacking town than attacking buddies; alternately, Seppel could have been intentionally making his attack look bad for distancing - I've done that before myself). That's why I asked GJ about how sure he was that Jobie is scum. It's not a terribly informative question if he answers correctly (the only town mindset I could see GJ's Jobie attack coming from is easy to fake as scum), but if he had claimed to be more sure about Jobie than Seppel that would have been incredibly strong evidence that GJ is scum - he'd be claiming to be more confident about Jobie when tonally he's more confident about Seppel. His actual answer is somewhere in between, mostly because he posted his thoughts on Cythare/Jobie before DCIII/me; usually I'd followup by asking how certain he was about Jobie vs. myself at the time he cased Jobie.
But I'm not terribly worried about getting the followup at this point, because of the second, even more damning piece of evidence: Seppel and GJ's interactions over the last couple of pages.
I'm pretty sure I've seen the way this endgame has developed before - or, to be more precise, that I've *RUN* this endgame before as scum (multiple times, in fact). Let me link you to the endgame of Disney Villains Mafia. I was scum in that game with scarbo, and I ran the squeeze play in that game - I started bussing my scumbuddy (scarbo, back when he was still swissh) into the ground at 5p LyLo, counting on the town concluding that whichever of us didn't flip Day 4 had to be town given how aggressively the flipped scum went after him. It worked, too, although it was a close-run thing (MTG-DDS saw through it late D4, but scarbo shot him overnight and Cantripmancer eventually made the wrong choice at 3p LyLo).
Or for another good example, let me show you the endgame of Mini Theme 894: Vortex on 'Scum. It's not as good an example because I was hit with RL for a large part of the lategame, but I was scum with Sajin in that game, and after somehow surviving getting counterclaimed by the Survivor D3 I bussed the crap out of my partner D4, got him lynched, and then won at 3p LyLo off a single bad vote.
Now, let's take a look at a few of GJ and Seppel's posts over the last page or so:
@Chris: GJ is actively avoiding responding to Az's case on me. If he really wanted to be taken seriously, he would respond to that case instead of ignoring it and just cherry picking posts while ignoring my obscene towniness.
I refuse to respond to him until he responds to Az's case on me, in full. There's no excuse for his behavior.
If you can't get it through your head by now that I'm town, then we deserve to lose this game. I literally should not even be under consideration for lynch at all.
If that is what you got from analysis of Az, my own analysis, and any post of mine since day 2, you should know how my read of you has been going. You have literally pushed in no direction for the last two days, despite the game being auto win, and you are making no attempt to solve it. No comment on Proph's case, no comment on my case on Jobie or you, and not attempting to dissuade anyone about how townie you are. We are in a mislynch or lose situation, and you seemed content to just coast by.
No feedback on Proph's case on Jobie, or criticism.
No attempt to push me through, as you seem to have it set me/Jobie/Proph are the three that need to die for a town win.
No attempt to push anything. You seem to be waiting to see where the town falls on for today, and seem content to just sit on Az's read of you.
You ere totally fine with me day 2 and were talking very politely to me. So this sudden change in stance is very weird.
There's no way you, as a level-headed person, should think I'm scum at this point.
Off of what?
And if your that damn sure I am one of the last two scum with Jobie, why are you trying to appeal to me?
Note the snippiness and small attacks, which is incredibly familiar - that's how scarbo and I acted in Disney Villains endgame. It's partially knowing that the person you're attacking and being attacked by is scum and partially distancing (we're attacking each other too aggressively to be scum).
Also note 1794, where GJ accuses Seppel of trying to appeal to him. That's bullfeathers, and trying to frame the narrative - Seppel's claiming a mindset inconsistency in GJ, but GJ paints it as Seppel appealing to him in order to make it look like they are not scumbuddies (especially not GJ if Seppel flips scum - if Seppel is appealing to GJ, clearly GJ must be town! - but also if GJ flips scum - GJ was discrediting Seppel's attack!).
I can't do much since I've been at conventions these past two weeks as well as maintaining a dayjob. You should be thankful that I'm posting now.
I'd rather just lynch Jobie and deal with finding the last scum tomorrow.
Tonally, Seppel is absolutely sure that GJ is scum. His recent posts make no sense if he thinks that GJ is town (or if he knows GJ is town - scum know when they're being attacked by townies, and it usually comes out subconsciously), and even if he had doubts about GJ's alignment I think he would take a more concilatory tone - the kind of sniping he's doing is counterproductive if GJ is town and needs to reassess.
But... Seppel claims that he's not sure an still wants to lynch Jobie first.
Why? Because Jobie is town and a mislynch on him hands Seppel/GJ the game.
Vote: Gentleman Johnny (I'd HoS with intent to vote if Sir Chris hadn't unvoted, but he did so it's completely safe so...)
GJ first, because I don't want to get killed overnight and watch as Sir Chris lets GJ off the hook at endgame.
So, let's see if this will actually be a useful exercise. Reading through GJ since I'm pressed for time, might do Seppel tomorrow.
Summary of Gentleman Johnny:
Starts off by voting Iso in the manner that I disliked early D1. Addresses multiple people in his next post, asks a good mindset probing question to Iso, trying to divine motivation for asking questions. Continues quotewalling Iso and responds to me. Wants Iso to show his work and addresses other players at the same time. 1v1s Iso (in a way that I still think is town? Never actually seen a scum 1v1 before). Wants Iso to commit to a read on him. Talks with Sir Chris here about scumtells. Actually talks here about hypotheticals about what he would do if he was scum, which I notice is a common trend when Chris is interacting with GJ. Really wants to lynch Iso. Talks about being suspicious of everyone on the Cythare wagon and Seppel himself. Keeps talking with Iso, and throws a softball to Seppel here - "why are you voting proph". He starts to defend me. Something I noticed was that Seppel quoted GJ's post, but he never actually answered the question. Would Seppel ignore a question posed to him by his scumbuddy if GJ/Seppel is actually a thing?
Provides a list of reads where he townreads me, scumreads Chris, leaning town on Az, and nullreading Cythare and ZDS. Huh, weird. He states that Az is leaning town in the same post where he votes him. This might be a stream of consciousness post but it still reads weird. Votes Chris (chainsawing Wheat it feels like). GJ responds to Wheat's question. GJ then starts to case Sir Chris. Keeps interrogating Chris. We then have the "Not lynching ZDS over Chris" then he votes ZDS a couple of pages, which I thought was town earlier due to lack of self awareness but now.. I'm not sure.
Quote from GJ »
one of Wheat/SC/Cythare is probably scum. I personally don't think its Wheat, despite his last few points being bleh. It reads to me like he was shutting down, moreso than being evasive.
Hm.
He then says he'd be fine with a Wheat lynch on D2.
Quote from GJ »
I am curious if you are capable of acknowledging the convenience that I am quite aware of how I interacted with Wheat yesterday will make me look bad today if Wheat is lynched and flips scum.
This is.. unusually self aware, and given that Wheat did flip scum this quote now looks a lot more interesting. Would like Chris's input on this.
He then votes Wheat with no reasoning and explains to Tar why he hammered ZDS. GJ then starts to case Wheat despite not mentioning him for basically all of Day 1. He responds to Seppel's questions. Talks about going through the massclaim. I guess GJ unvoted at some point as well. He also interacts with Seppel quite a lot at this point in time. Votes Seppel once the Seppel wagon has reached its peak. Does a bunch of responding here where he says the scum are in (Seppel, Wheat, Cythare). Flip flops here about Wheat and Seppel, though it's worth noting that he was never on the Wheat wagon at the end. Day 3, he puts Jobie aside and wants to look at Az/Seppel. Starts talking with Az here. He then talks about his play in Star Trek and talks to Chris where Chris pulls out his hypothetical scum!GJ card again. Wants Cyan to be more consistent with his reads. Talks about how Seppel "slipped up". Seems deadset at a Seppel/Az team at this point. GJ then starts being active Today.
@GJ: Why did you vote Az in the same post where you declared him "leaning town"?
Voting pattern:
Iso (D1), GJ (D1) Az (D1) Chris (D1) ZDS (D1) Wheat (D2) Seppel (D2) Seppel (D3) Azrael (D3)
Conclusion:
Rereading the thread reminded me why I thought that GJ was scum, and now that Az has flipped town I am relatively confident on the Seppel/GJ team? Day 1 GJ didn't interact with Wheat much at all and Wheat has GJ as "fourth scum candidate" which is where scum usually put their buddies. Day 2 is where it gets a bit murky since GJ makes a couple of moves that look very bad for him if Wheat flips scum, like moving onto Seppel and the abrupt vote + case on Wheat when Wheat was not much on his radar Day 1. Day 3 GJ goes after Seppel since he proclaims that Seppel "slipped up" but then he votes Az at the end. I think his behavior here is fine (one of the things that gives me pause is the 1v1 D1), but based on scumbuddy interactions he doesn't have anything going for him. The Wheat interactions look super bad for him as well, but if that's the case (and GJ is the scum savant that he proclaims to be) then, as he pointed out, I'm not sure why he was indecisive towards Wheat/Seppel when he could have gone full sail on Wheat. Seppel's behavior right now is weird too since it almost feels like Seppel/GJ is /too/ obvious.
So I am around 65-70% confident on GJ/Seppel, with some itching gut feelings that make me unsure? I want to look at Seppel's posts as well since he was very townie around Day 2, but he's dropped off a bit.
Would like others to comment on my summary/conclusion.
---
@Seppel: What do you think of my Jobie reread, if you think Jobie is scum?
Also, if you think Chris and I are town, and GJ's DCIII/Taredas PBPA makes you feel better about him (Taredas), then shouldn't you think that GJ should be scum based off of PoE?
what in the **** is the town motivation to say this.
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I guess Jobie and Seppel don't need to do the leg work when Taredas and Proph do it for them. I would have really loved to hear some actual good replies out of the both of them about my thoughts before you two did something, but I guess I didn't specifically request it so I won't complain for content.
@ Taradas - I am familiar with that type of end game play for scum, but I also have seen you go adventuring a couple of times this game and swing and miss. I am not seeing the same tone as you are in their interactions, though. I don't find this post terribly compelling. Maybe I am just being tone deaf but I just don't see what you're seeing. I mean I understand how the bus strategy works in this situation and everything I just don't see it here in particular based on what you posted.
@ Proph - This, on the other hand, pulls at me. Because this is what I found wrong about GJ personally. I read this and go "yeah, this makes GJ look like crap alright." I hate end game. I just...hate it. I'm not bad at it really, but I just... I toss and turn and it makes me want to scream.
Maybe I should just do what I did in Predator and trust an earlier version of myself. I mean I have two locked on town reads and both are like "you know Chris, GJ is pretty much scum" and then you have past Chris being like "Chris, you have him! don't let him loose!" \
He's coming off so convicted here though. He's making solid cases. He wants the game really badly. Hrm.
@ Taredas - Seppel today, and if I am not killed tonight I will strike GJ down tomorrow for you. Is this a reasonable compromise?
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I....literally don't know how you can say with a straight face I had zero interaction with WG day 1. I had TONS of it, but the difference was that I was reading him and defending him as town, going after Sir Chris. I had TONS of interaction with WG, and my dynamic towards him did switch to reading him more scum, just as my read on Sir Chris started leaning more towards town. I can't point to a single post where that switch happened, but day 2, I just started to inch farther and farther away from a scum Sir Chris and a town WG.
As far as Az goes, I don't remember exactly what was going through my brain at the time. I don't think it was the same post as I said leaning town, but his interaction with Cyan, I think it was bothered me greatly. I don't have the ability to look back now, I might be able to do it tomorrow.
Taredas thinks I am scum, and that day 2, rather than bus and look strong, I decided being flaky was the way to go with my two scum buddies. I mean, I can't actually beat this. Half of you think I am scum because of how bad my play looks, and the other half think I am just next leveling all of you.
I got nothing. Every reasonable explanation I could possibly have will always look tainted because WIFOM. Chris, I hope you live tomorrow, as you are the only person I might be able to convince. Tell me what I can do to make you feel better though, because I don't know what else I could do at this point. Jobie/Seppel is the scum team, and I will scream that until I am dead, but point blank, I am not as sure as I would like. But, I can't see why scumTaredas/scumProph resist this lynch so hard if they are scum, even with Seppel being their scum buddy. All that happens if they draw unecessary scrutiny to themselves, for what? The chance to end the game with two scum instead of one?
@Chris: GJ plays to be the survivalist, busing his teammates so that he will survive to the end. If you really think GJ and I are a scumteam (what in the flying ****, really), we should lynch GJ first.
Seppel, you just literally said you were doubting me. Why on Earth would you want to attempt something that could backfire so badly (and end the game) as town? How can you be that 100% (and to try this, you are obviously 100% sure) that Chris and Proph are town but your scum read on me is suddenly in question. You feel better about Taredas so even if you are right on Jobie, you can't pin down the last mafia member.
I'm sorry I'm VLA until Sunday-ish. I'm going to get really drunk tomorrow.
Glhf
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I just can't get over Jobie's flawed reasoning for not liking a NL.
I have no desire to lynch Chris or Proph, but I would like Proph to post more. Who are you even talking about?
This is the struggle I'm having right now.
The razor says that GJ is just scum. He would fit the candidate whom I've expressed multiple times throughout this game - a savvy scum player worming up to my townreads, bad Wheat interactions, plus the fact that I think Jobie is maybe town. But I've liked his behavior throughout Today - he's given solid reasoning as to why he thinks I'm town and I liked his #1756.
I think I'm going to try and do the zindabad endgame strategy of summary and analysis since I've seen it work well for him in the past.
@GJ: I think you pointed out most of the issues I had with Cythare/Jobie, but what do you think of his "total confidence breaker" post? That post rang as very natural and genuine and it feels odd to me that you chose not to talk about it.
I think if you read his "total confidence breaker" then his random switch ends up making a lot more sense. Jobie just basically lost all confidence after everyone scumread him for that post and so he's just following others instead of his own reads.
I like Chris's analysis of Jobie/Cythare's posts and it gives me more things to think about. Chris, can you give me some examples of Jobie being manipulative in Avant Garde? I want to see if he can fake a genuine post like that (unlikely, but want to cover all bases).
@Seppel: What do you think of my Jobie reread post?
But going by your paraphrase: "Jobie just basically lost all confidence after everyone scumread him for that post and so he's just following others instead of his own reads.", how is that in anyway indicative of town?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The post just feels so... real to me. It's a very good window into Jobie's mindset and given that I've experienced what he described here in previous games I.. think Jobie is town? Pending Chris's response to how well he can fake it.
As far as your read on me, I don't know what to tell you. If you assume you think if Jobie is more town, Seppel/GJ make the scum team, unless you think Taredas could be scum. How does that calculate at all? Why do I not just hang strong Seppel day 2, rather than get flakey with him and WG? Why if I am such a strong "savvy" scum player do I not rein it in firm, rather than look indecisive on either wagon?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Seppel
True Name Nemesis came back and we found out that was a lie.
Best vote NA? Bandwagony as hell.
Boy, would that have been a great way to lead your vote.
Interaction with Wheat. My gut says unaligned my pair, but Seppel has barned buddies in the past. No original reason for jumping on this wagon.
ZDS already stated his activity was going to be low regardless of alignment.
Another reasonless vote.
Seppel could make this post as either alignment. He really isn't doing anything towards his scum reads either.
If this was the case, why not quote one for the case you were running.
This sounds really fake. I doubt most scum think that far ahead. There are people that were voting you and trying to lynch you before Wheat tried anything towards you.
Interaction with WG. No actual questions asked.
List as of early day 2. Only his barn of Chris is the only strong town vote placed. Way too many null reads for my tastes.
They are literally talking past each other, but not really interacting. No points towards each other, no challenges, ect ect.
Response to WG's post, his next immediate post:
@SIR CHRIS: Remember this post of yours?
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/640720-the-2015-mtgs-mafia-invitational-day-4?comment=975
Read it again, and tell me what you think of Seppel. Moving on, the next few posts are his cases...
This is his response to my explanation of the hammer. Taredas did a similar thing, so I don't know, but he thinks I am lying. Why doesn't he vote me at this stage? What reason do I have to lie as town about why I ended up hammering ZDS?
If he knew that WG would flip scum, this could easily be an opening to potentially push SC, especially after SC relented on WG and became more intersted in Seppel for the day 2 lynch.
I can't shake how terribly I feel about this post, especially when the scum have the next 2-3 nks line up pretty well. It wasn't like the mafia nightkill me or Proph. If there are scum spreading the ladder, I don't see why there isn't a shift one way to the other, if one of the two wagons was a townie. Cyan's dueling scum wagons theory makes more and more sense.
It's almost as if he knows Wheat's alignment.
My first reaction was that no scum would be that blatant about their own survival. And then I realized it was Seppel I was casing.
Le sigh.
If he is town, he believed that his top two scum reads just said **** it all, and tried to lead the charge after Proph instead, when momentum from the end of day 2 clearly favored a Seppel lynch day 3, especially with Cyan still being alive. Despite being "auto-win" there is no single push onto either of these wagons. Day 2, he was convinced that Az/WG were scum together, and now he is entertaining Jobie/me as well.
No response or chase at all. He is literally coasting at this stage, when he just admitted before we are not in auto-win.
......there is no way he doesn't realize the lynch for day 3 is a toss-up between him and Az, with Cyan switching back, Chris wanting to lynch him before Az, and Taredas saying he is fine hammering him. Hell, even Proph who was from what I remember, still town reading Seppel at this spot would have lynched Seppel. He should also know which one of three people he should be pushing for his potential case, and Az was his top scum read a while ago with nothing seemingly changing. But right after...
I can't in any world, imagine that he doesn't see Sir Chris dying for free, or the scum just choosing not to nightkill if it was that up in the air for potential mis-lynches.
I respect Azrael a lot, and look up to him as a veteran, and mean the following with no disrespect towards him: Az was wrong on literally every other front imaginable. He tunneled so hard on me, that he couldn't figure out any partner that would make sense with me being scum, he thought Rhand was scum, he was town reading me, and was back and forth between null, scum, and town on Seppel the day before, and went into both his Seppel read and GJ read with a mind set of the former being town, and the latter being scum, with it being impossible for us to be partners.
I would like to remind the viewers at home that this post comes from the same player who said he would quote his role pm to get modkilled to force a lynch (as a neutral) so this type of emotional response can easily be faked from a non-town standpoint.
I don't know why anyone would think this is a point in their favor.
I have exactly one tell as mafia, and it doesn't even involve my behavior. Post game, remind me and I will share it with you. I think Iso knows it, but I don't recall if I mentioned it or not.
Probably the fact that the people posting today are me + Chris, and we get a sparkler from Proph every now and then. The people I am trying to narrow down as scum, are doing the least amount of posting, and we are in mislynch or lose. Not everyone is lurking is scum, and its the holidays, but I am just getting really on edge. This is the closest I have ever gotten to tilting in a game of mafia.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Because I thought I was putting him to L-1, not lynching him.
(Somebody yesterDay mentioned "now we're waiting for Proph and Tare to get back" and I thought Az was at L-2 given that.)
More once I get SG-1 D1 started.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
The fake empathy he had towards Cyan and the mercy displayed is rather scary.
He is also, generally speaking, what I would refer to as lovably snarky in his interaction with people. He bats Seppel around for a bit in the middle of his isolation to my deep amusement and has gifs on the ready and is rather relaxed. So really different here overall when comparing them on top of each other. He does mention that I helped him break his scum meta and as has been mentioned he is undoubtedly under real stress outside of this game which can easily bleed into it.
Based purely on strength of play this is PoE'd into Seppel/Jobie. GJ has played well. But I am ... not the type of person who concedes games to strong scum players. It's not in my nature. I do not believe in the phrase 'if I have been outplayed, oh well.' It makes me sick to my stomach. Therefore, I am thinking still.
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It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
... and yet. He hard defended Wheat against my wrath. Like Cythare, like, Seppel, at the moment of truth day one he went the wrong way. But someone who did this has to be town. I really want to win this game. When your most active and most driven player is scum that tends to end badly for town, I should know I've done it to towns before. Is this performance by GJ that, though? Does GJ's game remind me of my own scum games? ... No, not really.
Okay, GJ isn't scum. This game is fully PoE'd.
##unvote: GJ
Jobie and Seppel, convince me otherwise.
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Chris, what strikes are against me that make me less townie than GJ? If its Cythares lurkiness and my first post of the game.
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To finish the "if its" sentence. If its those reasons, we can just hand the scum the game.
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I refuse to respond to him until he responds to Az's case on me, in full. There's no excuse for his behavior.
If you can't get it through your head by now that I'm town, then we deserve to lose this game. I literally should not even be under consideration for lynch at all.
So your defense on me is basically: "But az said I was town"...
@Taredas: I am about 90% sure that Seppel/Jobie is the final combination, with any doubt about your spot being cleared up with my re-read. If you asked me which one I was less sure about, it would be Jobie. If I am wrong about him though, I have no idea who would make more sense.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Az's responses. First post will be the section Seppel started with, second part will be az so I don't have to requote everything with names:
"Healthy Town Paranoia"
Wheat was also pretty consistent in who he was reading as scum. It doesn't make it a town tell, it just means that in one of the more swingier days, his reads were static.
Has no problem with Seppel jumping on a wagon gaining steam with almost zero reason.
So seppel has jumped on the three wagons, all three times with little to no interaction, and Azrael thinks this is just fine with a town Seppel, and not scum Seppel.
It is a good post. It isn't impossible for scum to have sharp/thoughtful thinking either.
It is literally, almost identical to Wheat's interaction which started off as "OMG, REDIRECTOR, SCUMMMMM!"
I was also town reading WG, and yet my switch was scummy. More proof that Seppel went into this read thinking you were town, and made the posts fir his narrative.
What's there to fake?
So, it's bad play, but its Seppel.
What Azrael doesn't mention is that Seppel is not doing anything to steer the conversation into anything he wants to talk to. Seppel is almost as good on defense as I am. This was also made day 1, when there has been almost little chat made towards him ,meaning Seppel would know the odds of anything incriminating him without a scum flip are almost non-existent.
This is how you can tell the Az case was spoiled: A clear case of I am reading these posts only from a townies perspective. This is a null post as best, and again, easily faked.
I really don't see how Seppel's post makes any sense to draw as a conclusion as town, when no scum are revealed at this stage.
Day 2 was EITHER WHEAT OR SEPPEL. LOOKING FLAKY ON WG WOULD HAVE ENDED WITH HIM DEAD. And if he knew WG would flip scum, then he clearly knew where to poke. Proph makes a good mention of why this case looks worse than SC and my own.
He isn't even trying to hide how biased he went into these read(s). He read seppel with the thought process of he iws town, because Proph/GJ are scum. Almost every step of Az's case was like he was trying to make excuses for why Seppel's play was turrible, but somehow town.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Then I'd like Chris and Proph to post without voting me.
In that way, we will 100% have two confirmed townies.
No feedback on Proph's case on Jobie, or criticism.
No attempt to push me through, as you seem to have it set me/Jobie/Proph are the three that need to die for a town win.
No attempt to push anything. You seem to be waiting to see where the town falls on for today, and seem content to just sit on Az's read of you.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
That doesn't matter if you are scum.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/640720-the-2015-mtgs-mafia-invitational-day-4?comment=1364
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Off of what?
And if your that damn sure I am one of the last two scum with Jobie, why are you trying to appeal to me?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I had slight doubts, so I checked back into both DCIII and Taredas to relieve them. Proph and Chris could probably be cleared off of Wheat alone, that literally leaves you and Jobie, unless I am wrong about one of the three clears.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I'd rather just lynch Jobie and deal with finding the last scum tomorrow.
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(1) Seppel - Gentleman Johnny
Not Voting: Jobie, Prophylaxis, Seppel, Sir Chris, Taredas
With 6 alive it's 4 to lynch.
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That's silly to me.
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yeah for Jobes and me to be scum, that would mean the Az wagon was 100% town.
Also, Sir Chris isn't scum because two other players are. More on that in just a moment.
---
I think you're dead wrong about GJ.
Well, okay, you're right that GJ is the most motivated player in the game for most of the Day. That was probably inevitable given the surviving players and how the end of yesterDay went down; I've been having trouble getting a solid read on the setup until the last 48 hours and my motivation is a bit fried (mostly because of the Az flip - I thought I had put Az to L-1 and I came back a couple of hours later to find not only that he had been lynched - I didn't process that *I* was the hammer until early toDay - but that he had FINALLY dropped the kind of "you believe he's scum" case on a player that I'd been waiting to see from him the *entire game*; I damn near replaced out after that), Proph's generally isn't the kind of born town leader who can take over a game, Jobie's V/LA, and you... uh, I'm not entirely sure, but you haven't taken over this game toDay.
But at this point? GJ's scum, and Seppel's his buddy.
That's mostly due to the last couple of pages, actually - there's two key reasons why GJ and Seppel are scumbuddies, and both showed up within the last 72 hours. The first is GJ's case for Jobie in 1728, because my overriding impression of that case is that GJ doesn't actually believe Jobie is scum. That's my most reliable tell these days, because most scum have trouble faking sincerity when attacking townies. More importantly, GJ's attack on Seppel and his attack on Wheat back in 932 *DON'T* give me that impression. That's important, because scum appearing sincere on some attacks but not others usually means they are scum with the players they are attacking sincerely (Fadeblue in A3!), and Wheat flipped scum.
The only problem is, I've been off tonally a couple of times this game - most notably on Rhand's attack on me D2 (also on Seppel's attacks on Az and Wheat D2, but that's easier to explain - I've run across a couple of players, notably AE, who sound more sincere attacking town than attacking buddies; alternately, Seppel could have been intentionally making his attack look bad for distancing - I've done that before myself). That's why I asked GJ about how sure he was that Jobie is scum. It's not a terribly informative question if he answers correctly (the only town mindset I could see GJ's Jobie attack coming from is easy to fake as scum), but if he had claimed to be more sure about Jobie than Seppel that would have been incredibly strong evidence that GJ is scum - he'd be claiming to be more confident about Jobie when tonally he's more confident about Seppel. His actual answer is somewhere in between, mostly because he posted his thoughts on Cythare/Jobie before DCIII/me; usually I'd followup by asking how certain he was about Jobie vs. myself at the time he cased Jobie.
But I'm not terribly worried about getting the followup at this point, because of the second, even more damning piece of evidence: Seppel and GJ's interactions over the last couple of pages.
I'm pretty sure I've seen the way this endgame has developed before - or, to be more precise, that I've *RUN* this endgame before as scum (multiple times, in fact). Let me link you to the endgame of Disney Villains Mafia. I was scum in that game with scarbo, and I ran the squeeze play in that game - I started bussing my scumbuddy (scarbo, back when he was still swissh) into the ground at 5p LyLo, counting on the town concluding that whichever of us didn't flip Day 4 had to be town given how aggressively the flipped scum went after him. It worked, too, although it was a close-run thing (MTG-DDS saw through it late D4, but scarbo shot him overnight and Cantripmancer eventually made the wrong choice at 3p LyLo).
Or for another good example, let me show you the endgame of Mini Theme 894: Vortex on 'Scum. It's not as good an example because I was hit with RL for a large part of the lategame, but I was scum with Sajin in that game, and after somehow surviving getting counterclaimed by the Survivor D3 I bussed the crap out of my partner D4, got him lynched, and then won at 3p LyLo off a single bad vote.
Now, let's take a look at a few of GJ and Seppel's posts over the last page or so:
Note the snippiness and small attacks, which is incredibly familiar - that's how scarbo and I acted in Disney Villains endgame. It's partially knowing that the person you're attacking and being attacked by is scum and partially distancing (we're attacking each other too aggressively to be scum).
Also note 1794, where GJ accuses Seppel of trying to appeal to him. That's bullfeathers, and trying to frame the narrative - Seppel's claiming a mindset inconsistency in GJ, but GJ paints it as Seppel appealing to him in order to make it look like they are not scumbuddies (especially not GJ if Seppel flips scum - if Seppel is appealing to GJ, clearly GJ must be town! - but also if GJ flips scum - GJ was discrediting Seppel's attack!).
And here's the most damning part:
Tonally, Seppel is absolutely sure that GJ is scum. His recent posts make no sense if he thinks that GJ is town (or if he knows GJ is town - scum know when they're being attacked by townies, and it usually comes out subconsciously), and even if he had doubts about GJ's alignment I think he would take a more concilatory tone - the kind of sniping he's doing is counterproductive if GJ is town and needs to reassess.
But... Seppel claims that he's not sure an still wants to lynch Jobie first.
Why? Because Jobie is town and a mislynch on him hands Seppel/GJ the game.
Vote: Gentleman Johnny (I'd HoS with intent to vote if Sir Chris hadn't unvoted, but he did so it's completely safe so...)
GJ first, because I don't want to get killed overnight and watch as Sir Chris lets GJ off the hook at endgame.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
what is wrong with you
Summary of Gentleman Johnny:
Starts off by voting Iso in the manner that I disliked early D1. Addresses multiple people in his next post, asks a good mindset probing question to Iso, trying to divine motivation for asking questions. Continues quotewalling Iso and responds to me. Wants Iso to show his work and addresses other players at the same time. 1v1s Iso (in a way that I still think is town? Never actually seen a scum 1v1 before). Wants Iso to commit to a read on him. Talks with Sir Chris here about scumtells. Actually talks here about hypotheticals about what he would do if he was scum, which I notice is a common trend when Chris is interacting with GJ. Really wants to lynch Iso. Talks about being suspicious of everyone on the Cythare wagon and Seppel himself. Keeps talking with Iso, and throws a softball to Seppel here - "why are you voting proph". He starts to defend me. Something I noticed was that Seppel quoted GJ's post, but he never actually answered the question. Would Seppel ignore a question posed to him by his scumbuddy if GJ/Seppel is actually a thing?
Provides a list of reads where he townreads me, scumreads Chris, leaning town on Az, and nullreading Cythare and ZDS. Huh, weird. He states that Az is leaning town in the same post where he votes him. This might be a stream of consciousness post but it still reads weird. Votes Chris (chainsawing Wheat it feels like). GJ responds to Wheat's question. GJ then starts to case Sir Chris. Keeps interrogating Chris. We then have the "Not lynching ZDS over Chris" then he votes ZDS a couple of pages, which I thought was town earlier due to lack of self awareness but now.. I'm not sure.
Hm.
He then says he'd be fine with a Wheat lynch on D2.
This is.. unusually self aware, and given that Wheat did flip scum this quote now looks a lot more interesting. Would like Chris's input on this.
He then votes Wheat with no reasoning and explains to Tar why he hammered ZDS. GJ then starts to case Wheat despite not mentioning him for basically all of Day 1. He responds to Seppel's questions. Talks about going through the massclaim. I guess GJ unvoted at some point as well. He also interacts with Seppel quite a lot at this point in time. Votes Seppel once the Seppel wagon has reached its peak. Does a bunch of responding here where he says the scum are in (Seppel, Wheat, Cythare). Flip flops here about Wheat and Seppel, though it's worth noting that he was never on the Wheat wagon at the end. Day 3, he puts Jobie aside and wants to look at Az/Seppel. Starts talking with Az here. He then talks about his play in Star Trek and talks to Chris where Chris pulls out his hypothetical scum!GJ card again. Wants Cyan to be more consistent with his reads. Talks about how Seppel "slipped up". Seems deadset at a Seppel/Az team at this point. GJ then starts being active Today.
@GJ: Why did you vote Az in the same post where you declared him "leaning town"?
Voting pattern:
Iso (D1), GJ (D1) Az (D1) Chris (D1) ZDS (D1) Wheat (D2) Seppel (D2) Seppel (D3) Azrael (D3)
Conclusion:
Rereading the thread reminded me why I thought that GJ was scum, and now that Az has flipped town I am relatively confident on the Seppel/GJ team? Day 1 GJ didn't interact with Wheat much at all and Wheat has GJ as "fourth scum candidate" which is where scum usually put their buddies. Day 2 is where it gets a bit murky since GJ makes a couple of moves that look very bad for him if Wheat flips scum, like moving onto Seppel and the abrupt vote + case on Wheat when Wheat was not much on his radar Day 1. Day 3 GJ goes after Seppel since he proclaims that Seppel "slipped up" but then he votes Az at the end. I think his behavior here is fine (one of the things that gives me pause is the 1v1 D1), but based on scumbuddy interactions he doesn't have anything going for him. The Wheat interactions look super bad for him as well, but if that's the case (and GJ is the scum savant that he proclaims to be) then, as he pointed out, I'm not sure why he was indecisive towards Wheat/Seppel when he could have gone full sail on Wheat. Seppel's behavior right now is weird too since it almost feels like Seppel/GJ is /too/ obvious.
So I am around 65-70% confident on GJ/Seppel, with some itching gut feelings that make me unsure? I want to look at Seppel's posts as well since he was very townie around Day 2, but he's dropped off a bit.
Would like others to comment on my summary/conclusion.
---
@Seppel: What do you think of my Jobie reread, if you think Jobie is scum?
Also, if you think Chris and I are town, and GJ's DCIII/Taredas PBPA makes you feel better about him (Taredas), then shouldn't you think that GJ should be scum based off of PoE?
what in the **** is the town motivation to say this.
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@ Taradas - I am familiar with that type of end game play for scum, but I also have seen you go adventuring a couple of times this game and swing and miss. I am not seeing the same tone as you are in their interactions, though. I don't find this post terribly compelling. Maybe I am just being tone deaf but I just don't see what you're seeing. I mean I understand how the bus strategy works in this situation and everything I just don't see it here in particular based on what you posted.
@ Proph - This, on the other hand, pulls at me. Because this is what I found wrong about GJ personally. I read this and go "yeah, this makes GJ look like crap alright." I hate end game. I just...hate it. I'm not bad at it really, but I just... I toss and turn and it makes me want to scream.
Maybe I should just do what I did in Predator and trust an earlier version of myself. I mean I have two locked on town reads and both are like "you know Chris, GJ is pretty much scum" and then you have past Chris being like "Chris, you have him! don't let him loose!" \
He's coming off so convicted here though. He's making solid cases. He wants the game really badly. Hrm.
@ Taredas - Seppel today, and if I am not killed tonight I will strike GJ down tomorrow for you. Is this a reasonable compromise?
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I....literally don't know how you can say with a straight face I had zero interaction with WG day 1. I had TONS of it, but the difference was that I was reading him and defending him as town, going after Sir Chris. I had TONS of interaction with WG, and my dynamic towards him did switch to reading him more scum, just as my read on Sir Chris started leaning more towards town. I can't point to a single post where that switch happened, but day 2, I just started to inch farther and farther away from a scum Sir Chris and a town WG.
As far as Az goes, I don't remember exactly what was going through my brain at the time. I don't think it was the same post as I said leaning town, but his interaction with Cyan, I think it was bothered me greatly. I don't have the ability to look back now, I might be able to do it tomorrow.
Taredas thinks I am scum, and that day 2, rather than bus and look strong, I decided being flaky was the way to go with my two scum buddies. I mean, I can't actually beat this. Half of you think I am scum because of how bad my play looks, and the other half think I am just next leveling all of you.
I got nothing. Every reasonable explanation I could possibly have will always look tainted because WIFOM. Chris, I hope you live tomorrow, as you are the only person I might be able to convince. Tell me what I can do to make you feel better though, because I don't know what else I could do at this point. Jobie/Seppel is the scum team, and I will scream that until I am dead, but point blank, I am not as sure as I would like. But, I can't see why scumTaredas/scumProph resist this lynch so hard if they are scum, even with Seppel being their scum buddy. All that happens if they draw unecessary scrutiny to themselves, for what? The chance to end the game with two scum instead of one?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
@Chris: GJ plays to be the survivalist, busing his teammates so that he will survive to the end. If you really think GJ and I are a scumteam (what in the flying ****, really), we should lynch GJ first.
I want to 100% confirm that you and Proph are town.
The GJ way path to no lynching: