Violet - Confirmed Town
Indigo - Strong Town
Teal - Solid Town
Blue - Leaning Town
Green - Confirmed/Probable Neutrals
Gold - Leaning Scum
Orange - Solid Scum
Red - Confirmed/Strong Scum
Violet - Confirmed Town
Indigo - Strong Town
Teal - Solid Town
Blue - Leaning Town
Green - Confirmed/Probable Neutrals
Gold - Leaning Scum
Orange - Solid Scum
Red - Confirmed/Strong Scum
When I stop having to go back and remind myself "Incognito is the claimed vig."
I've written two full posts analyzing your behaviour and getting scum reads.
Your scale is... so bizzare in color choice as the visual contrast between scum and town is less than the standard Moarblue=Moartown, MoarRed = MoarScum .
Not to mention the heavy use of priming throughout your posts by slapping color everywhere. (Influencing the way people read your post by using color). You make heavy assumptions and have basically chained lynches together with MrH and then your purported WG/Nyx scumteam. It's just bad. But calling you out on it like this? Risks me getting quicklynched and damaging the gamestate further (Because the current number of dead town is bad enough).
TL;DR I'm getting fried out with false positives because uncc'd vig and knowledge of how basics are balanced means yes, you're probably town. You're just ringing a lot of alarm bells and passing out flags like it's Oprah's favourite thing.
Why are you so concerned about my use of color codes?
How am I "chaining lynches" and why are you so concerned about getting quicklynched?
That was technically the third. The first and second got blanked out when I reminded myself "No, that's the most-likely-town Vig"
I'm concerned about your overuse of color because it does more than just organize. It, pardon the required pun here, colors the way people view interactions. You first remove context from the actual actions (By removing them from their context. Unavoidable) then give them a shiny new context in the form of colors. If two people have the same color they'll naturally link them. If you color someone blue people tend to associate positive, red negative, et cetera et cetera.
Read Basic 67's final day for an in-depth of why I'm hesitant to do things like this. It's short, but I gunned after someone I thought was scum but was effectively confirmed town.
Oh, the chaining lynches thing is the
"If MrHBlue is town then one of WG/Nyxu is scum" message I got from some of your post, but then you called WG/Nyxu null.. internal consistency is tech.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
First of all, there are never two scumteams in a basic ever. They are pretty much out even from Normals these days; though I think there's still some discussion on that.
I agree with the analysis of swishh; him being town is well-supported by him being on the wagon.
@Incognito: Why do you believe there has to be a scum on every wagon?
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
The Annorax wagon is very town-dominated. The only person on the wagon who might not be town is Nyxu. This tells me the scum are not very bussy. I then see Sixed as the only player to jump on MRHBlue, and can't help but feel that makes Nyxu (r. Sixed) very likely town.
I see also that Magenta never once voted. Ever. This makes me think Cantripmancer (r. Magenta) is scum.
DDS was voted by Annorax so he's likely town.
tl;dr: Cantripmancer and MRHblue are almost certainly the last two scum
Had a busy weekend with family in town. I did a quick read of developing events. I'll read up and catch up a little better tonight. Hopefully either tonight or tomorrow I will have some better input.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!! My Decks
Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
Nyxu, why are you more concerned about the positions of colors in psychology than actually scumhunting?
And how does Basic 67's endgame = vote analysis? Why are you so worried about getting quicklynched?
Also, the chaining lynches thing is just simple POE. Cantrip and you are just null reads to me.
Wheat, I want to trust you. I want to believe that you're solidly town and Cantrip and MRH are the last two scum.
However, part of me feels like the Annorax bus was orchestrated.
From your first post D2 voting Annorax to Annorax's first post OMGUSing you.. I just can't shake it.
I think the best plan of action toDay is to lynch MRHBlue, and evaluate if he flips town or scum.
If he flips town, I think I would go after Wheat, and possibly Nyxu.
If he flips scum, then Wheat is probably very townie and we'll go after Cantripmancer.
I'll probably go back and reread MRHBlue more closely, and check Wheat's and Annorax's interactions.
I find manipulative posts scummy. I find manipulative behaviour scummy. Color use and priming is manipulative so whenever I read through you falsepositive me so hard I have to stop working.
Vote analysis is NOT what I was talking about re 67. 67 was me getting quicklynched and the town losing. I'm concerned about getting lynched over calling out a townie's terrible play because it accomplishes and proves nothing.
It reads as scummy but it's a false positive because yes, incog is as close to confirmed town as can be. I "worry" about getting quicklynched for raddaradda calling out Incognito because I'd be calling out a mostly-confrmed-town for being scummy.
Does that make sense?
as for nopressure on me?
I've been dumb lurky this game. I've not contributed as much as I wanted to and I'm well aware of it. So if I go from lurky to calling out bad practice in town, I'm rather jaded on people stringing me up for things like that. (67, VM2). Not to mention that ohay, lurky is the meta for scum on this site.
It reads as scummy but it's a false positive because yes, incog is as close to confirmed town as can be. I "worry" about getting quicklynched for raddaradda calling out Incognito because I'd be calling out a mostly-confrmed-town for being scummy.
Does that make sense?
as for nopressure on me?
I've been dumb lurky this game. I've not contributed as much as I wanted to and I'm well aware of it. So if I go from lurky to calling out bad practice in town, I'm rather jaded on people stringing me up for things like that. (67, VM2). Not to mention that ohay, lurky is the meta for scum on this site.
I didn't like Sixed's posts, and I don't like yours today.
tl;dr: Cantripmancer and MRHblue are almost certainly the last two scum Vote: MRHblue
Are you convinced enough that MRH is scum that no more discussion is merited today? Could you give a quick summary of your case on MRH? The vote seems quick, especially with such a low lynch threshold.
I think the best plan of action toDay is to lynch MRHBlue, and evaluate if he flips town or scum.
If he flips town, I think I would go after Wheat, and possibly Nyxu.
If he flips scum, then Wheat is probably very townie and we'll go after Cantripmancer.
I'll probably go back and reread MRHBlue more closely, and check Wheat's and Annorax's interactions.
Admittedly, MRH was my biggest scum read entering the day. If TK had flipped scum, I would probably not be hesitant. Problem is, TK flipped town. After re-casing MRH, I am not ready to vote him yet.
@Incognito: why do you have 2 distinct scum teams? What I am getting at is this: Are you finding interactions that tie Cantrip to MRH, and conversely Nyxu to WG? I am getting far more town read from Cantrip than Nyxu currently, and not sure either is tethered to MRH flipping either way. Cantrip has been giving analysis and input, whereas Nyxu seems more defensive and evasive. What is your read on Cantrip?
Wheat, I want to trust you. I want to believe that you're solidly town and Cantrip and MRH are the last two scum.
At best, currently, I have to /barn this statement. Only thing I would change is Cantrip has a more town read for me than Nyxu. Goes back to question above. WG has been a tough read for me this whole game, and I have not really found any specific post to condemn him. I am still in the process of following up on the interactions that Cantrip previously outlined and retracing the case presented. He raised some interesting points that are worth investigating.
Wheat, I want to trust you. I want to believe that you're solidly town and Cantrip and MRH are the last two scum.
However, part of me feels like the Annorax bus was orchestrated.
From your first post D2 voting Annorax to Annorax's first post OMGUSing you.. I just can't shake it.
I think the best plan of action toDay is to lynch MRHBlue, and evaluate if he flips town or scum.
This sounds like you are having suspicions about WG. Am I getting your read correct there? More discussion is warranted before a vote if that's true...
The Annorax wagon is very town-dominated. The only person on the wagon who might not be town is Nyxu. This tells me the scum are not very bussy. I then see Sixed as the only player to jump on MRHBlue, and can't help but feel that makes Nyxu (r. Sixed) very likely town.
Is your read on Nyxu based on you not believing that scum are bussing this game?
Vote analysis is NOT what I was talking about re 67. 67 was me getting quicklynched and the town losing. I'm concerned about getting lynched over calling out a townie's terrible play because it accomplishes and proves nothing.
It reads as scummy but it's a false positive because yes, incog is as close to confirmed town as can be. I "worry" about getting quicklynched for raddaradda calling out Incognito because I'd be calling out a mostly-confrmed-town for being scummy.
Does that make sense?
as for nopressure on me?
I've been dumb lurky this game. I've not contributed as much as I wanted to and I'm well aware of it. So if I go from lurky to calling out bad practice in town, I'm rather jaded on people stringing me up for things like that. (67, VM2). Not to mention that ohay, lurky is the meta for scum on this site.
Calling out Incognito is not bad. Townies can make mistakes. What is concerning (at least to me) is what you decided to call out. You called me out for quoting Incognito when I was asking you to post more (me using Incognito's post to "add weight to my post"). Then you call out Incognito for trying to be manipulative in his use of colors. His color scheme was not the normal one, but do you actually think he was being manipulative with that color usage? I think WG already hit on this point.
I'll post more hopefully later tonight.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!! My Decks
Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
@DDS: The evidence points to the scum not voting each other. This confirms MRH as scum, and strongly points to Cantripmancer. However, I am noticing upon looking at it again, that Nyxu voted scum, but the scum didn't vote him; therefore, he's probably the third scum if Cantrip is not.
I'm absolutely certain of MRH though. The data points too strongly to it.
@DDS: The evidence points to the scum not voting each other. This confirms MRH as scum, and strongly points to Cantripmancer. However, I am noticing upon looking at it again, that Nyxu voted scum, but the scum didn't vote him; therefore, he's probably the third scum if Cantrip is not.
I'm absolutely certain of MRH though. The data points too strongly to it.
FTR, will you specify/summarize which data you refer to that make you so certain?
@Wheat: Sorry, meant to post this in my last post: Prior to my recent hiatus, I had something of a rep for not voting (outside of RVS) before I felt really good about my vote. Since I came back, I've been a little looser with this self-imposed restriction, not necessarily with positive results. So, no, you likely won't see a vote from me unless I have good purpose in placing it. I can't speak for Magenta (we didn't get into voting practices in the mentoring QT other than "not FOSing when you have a free vote"), but even were I not under your suspicions, I'd be reluctant to agree that not voting, in and of itself, is significantly scummy.
@Swishh: YesterDay (at least as late as 344/345), you were convinced Annorax and Wheat were scum. 345 was your case against Annorax, and included "I'll comment on W_G later." In 400, you've switched to "TK and Annorax are scum", and in 409 you're "feeling better about W_G" and are more interested in lynching TK. What, specifically, made you feel better about Wheat between 344 and 400/409?
Wow...rereading that series of posts, it felt like everyone was trying to avoid lynching Annorax. Wheat, swishh, even Incognito.
@Incog: Your votecount analysis in 405 used a more standard blue-red color schema; why did you feel the need to fragment it in the more recent attempts?
@DDS: The evidence points to the scum not voting each other. This confirms MRH as scum, and strongly points to Cantripmancer. However, I am noticing upon looking at it again, that Nyxu voted scum, but the scum didn't vote him; therefore, he's probably the third scum if Cantrip is not.
I'm absolutely certain of MRH though. The data points too strongly to it.
FTR, will you specify/summarize which data you refer to that make you so certain?
[B]
[B]@Swishh:[/B] YesterDay (at least as late as 344/345), you were convinced Annorax and Wheat were scum. 345 was your case against Annorax, and included "I'll comment on W_G later." In 400, you've switched to "TK and Annorax are scum", and in 409 you're "feeling better about W_G" and are more interested in lynching TK. What, specifically, made you feel better about Wheat between 344 and 400/409?
I was certain about Annorax and this post made it sound like his plan was to get Wheat lynched for what Polski said.
I have made other posts on the same thought, you didn't capture the endpoint with your representation. Fingers pointed by dead town do not absolutely indicate scum. It is a good point for questions to begin. WG answered for them, Annorax ignored them.
I saw no need to answer because it should be obvious: if I were scum, killing someone that accuses me of being scum would be a good way to get myself speedlynched.
Come day 2, Annorax and MRH were the first (and I think only) ones to vote Wheat. If MRH flips scum, Wheat will definitely be town.
@Wheat: I agree with you on both counts ("voting with Annorax is suspicious", and "sheeping TK is suspicious") but let's take a closer look:
For consistency, comments will follow the votecounts.
===============================================================
Wheat Grinder (1): Annorax
MRHBlue (1): Sixed
Trabant777 (2): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito
Lord_McDonalds (5): Grimnar, TK-421, swishh, Trabant777, MRHBlue
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Lord_McDonalds
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This first one came after Annorax RVS-voted Wheat, but it also put Lord at claim range. Definitely questionable.
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Lord_McDonalds, Annorax, Trabant777, Grimnar
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the same wagon and the "sheeping" occurred because swishh unvoted, (Annorax unvoted and FoS'd Lord), and Trabant unvoted. Not sheeping.
Not Voting: Magenta, Grimnar,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is still the same day, same series of events. Note that the "voting with Annorax" occurs because Annorax votes Lord (after MRH).
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Polski, swishh,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Same day, nothing changed.
===============================================================
Lord_McDonalds (2): TK-421, MRHBlue,
Magenta (1): Sixed
Annorax (1): Lord_McDonalds,
iRebel (4): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh
MTG~DDS (4): Polski, Annorax, iRebel, Magenta,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Same day, Annorax has bailed to DDS (but MRH stays put).
===============================================================
iRebel (6): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh, TK-421, Polski
MTG~DDS (3): Annorax, iRebel, Magenta
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incognito left out who wasn't voting on this one (MRH, Lord, Nyxu), and MRH hasn't sheeped either TK (who got on a town wagon) or Annorax.
(Psst. Wheat. Magenta did vote. Not saying that this one exception really matters for the purposes of your argument, but she did vote.)
Not Voting: Cantripmancer; MTG~DDS; Nyxu; swishh
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TK votes Pinky's Brain in 350 (pretty much OMGUS). MRH votes PB in 397, with plenty of back and forth between MRH and PB (started by PB attacking MRH) in the meantime. Not sure this can be classified as sheeping TK (although MRH does "agree" with TK when MRH votes PB).
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
However, in reality, it went more like:
1. MRH put Lord at claim range (suspicious, but could be done by new town).
2. Annorax joined MRH on Lord's wagon (can't be held against MRH).
3. MRH unvoted Lord (ok).
Day 2
4. MRH voted Wheat after Annorax, using Polski-WIFOM as rationale (suspicious, but again, could be done by new town unfamiliar with the pitfalls of WIFOM).
5. MRH votes Pinky's Brain after TK, but with a whole bunch of reasoning and almost 50 posts (ok).
One assisting a quick wagon on a townie to claim range, one following of Annorax onto your wagon, one not-really-sheeping of TK...what else?
Basically, you "helped" by standardizing Incognito's vote count listing, didn't actually do any "analysis" beyond glancing at what could be interpreted as scummy patterns, and have now latched onto it as "proof" that MRH is scum. You're more experienced than this.
In combination with some of the questionable choices I highlighted before, I now have ample reason to...
Vote: Wheat_Grinder
EWP: Swishh, do you acknowledge that the quote by Annorax you quoted is just as much WIFOM as Polski's statement? If so, why does it lend any amount of significant weight?
Take that in conjunction with Annorax's vote on Wheat at day start and the wifom disappears. Plus Annorax has flipped scum.
You mean Annorax's vote on Wheat when Annorax had to know some significant suspicion was coming his way? I don't think the WIFOM evaporates as much as you think. And what does Annorax flipping scum prove?
Also, did you even read the rest of my post? Since your vote's still on MRH, perhaps you could summarize why you're voting him?
Take that in conjunction with Annorax's vote on Wheat at day start and the wifom disappears. Plus Annorax has flipped scum.
You mean Annorax's vote on Wheat when Annorax had to know some significant suspicion was coming his way? I don't think the WIFOM evaporates as much as you think. And what does Annorax flipping scum prove?
Also, did you even read the rest of my post? Since your vote's still on MRH, perhaps you could summarize why you're voting him?
Polski said if he dies to look out for Wheat.
Polski dies.
Annorax votes Wheat.
MRH votes Wheat.
No one else votes Wheat.
Annorax flips scum.
I don't see any wifom here.
You think scum would start the day off tunneling each other? No one but MRH joined Annorax in following Polski's FoS. There is exactly one scum between MRH and Wheat. I guess we disagree which.
I apologize if this has been answered already, but:
@Incognito and MRHBlue: How many games of online Mafia have you played previous to this one?
Additional thoughts to come after those questions are asked.
I'm not too keen on discussing my meta, which is why I chose to use this gimmick.
I switched to a more fragmented vote analysis because it allowed me some more clear distinctions on leaning town/neutral/leaning scum.
MTG~DDS, I feel like Cantrip is very slightly leaning town. He's provided useful analysis, but his town/scum list is more flipped than mine. Though, his analysis is winning me over.
I'm suspicious of Wheat_Grinder because of paranoia. I understand that Wheat has been very much pro town throughout the game, but I believe that words are the easiest thing to fake. That interaction with Annorax at the start of Day 2 feels planned, to me.
I don't know, and I want to discuss the matter more before we lynch.
Also, swishh's posts kind of give me a bad feeling. He's a bit bloodthirsty, and while that's not enough to switch my read of him, it warrants further questioning. I'm not the biggest fan of that vote, either. I'm interested in dragging this day out, because we need more analysis here.
Ugh, Wheat. I can't shake the feeling that you're bussing Annorax somehow.
Annorax's play was so bad, an experienced scum would start attacking him right away, but try and slow it down before he actually gets lynched.
What are you saying here? You think Wheat is scum?
YES! I have been saying I think W-G is playing a very good scum game. He actively looks like hes scum hunting, but really hes just pointing out stuff that MIGHT be scummy IF we knew the flips and calling it 'proof'. Plus, as you see below, I think he has more than once represented data to point us at ourselves:
@Wheat: I agree with you on both counts ("voting with Annorax is suspicious", and "sheeping TK is suspicious") but let's take a closer look:
For consistency, comments will follow the votecounts.
===============================================================
Wheat Grinder (1): Annorax
MRHBlue (1): Sixed
Trabant777 (2): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito
Lord_McDonalds (5): Grimnar, TK-421, swishh, Trabant777, MRHBlue
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Lord_McDonalds
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This first one came after Annorax RVS-voted Wheat, but it also put Lord at claim range. Definitely questionable.
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Lord_McDonalds, Annorax, Trabant777, Grimnar
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the same wagon and the "sheeping" occurred because swishh unvoted, (Annorax unvoted and FoS'd Lord), and Trabant unvoted. Not sheeping.
Not Voting: Magenta, Grimnar,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is still the same day, same series of events. Note that the "voting with Annorax" occurs because Annorax votes Lord (after MRH).
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Polski, swishh,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Same day, nothing changed.
===============================================================
Lord_McDonalds (2): TK-421, MRHBlue,
Magenta (1): Sixed
Annorax (1): Lord_McDonalds,
iRebel (4): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh
MTG~DDS (4): Polski, Annorax, iRebel, Magenta,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Same day, Annorax has bailed to DDS (but MRH stays put).
===============================================================
iRebel (6): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh, TK-421, Polski
MTG~DDS (3): Annorax, iRebel, Magenta
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incognito left out who wasn't voting on this one (MRH, Lord, Nyxu), and MRH hasn't sheeped either TK (who got on a town wagon) or Annorax.
(Psst. Wheat. Magenta did vote. Not saying that this one exception really matters for the purposes of your argument, but she did vote.)
Not Voting: Cantripmancer; MTG~DDS; Nyxu; swishh
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TK votes Pinky's Brain in 350 (pretty much OMGUS). MRH votes PB in 397, with plenty of back and forth between MRH and PB (started by PB attacking MRH) in the meantime. Not sure this can be classified as sheeping TK (although MRH does "agree" with TK when MRH votes PB).
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
However, in reality, it went more like:
1. MRH put Lord at claim range (suspicious, but could be done by new town).
2. Annorax joined MRH on Lord's wagon (can't be held against MRH).
3. MRH unvoted Lord (ok).
Day 2
4. MRH voted Wheat after Annorax, using Polski-WIFOM as rationale (suspicious, but again, could be done by new town unfamiliar with the pitfalls of WIFOM).
5. MRH votes Pinky's Brain after TK, but with a whole bunch of reasoning and almost 50 posts (ok).
One assisting a quick wagon on a townie to claim range, one following of Annorax onto your wagon, one not-really-sheeping of TK...what else?
Basically, you "helped" by standardizing Incognito's vote count listing, didn't actually do any "analysis" beyond glancing at what could be interpreted as scummy patterns, and have now latched onto it as "proof" that MRH is scum. You're more experienced than this.
In combination with some of the questionable choices I highlighted before, I now have ample reason to...
Vote: Wheat_Grinder
EWP: Swishh, do you acknowledge that the quote by Annorax you quoted is just as much WIFOM as Polski's statement? If so, why does it lend any amount of significant weight?
Thank you for consolidating what my brain didn't. Mine was more of a 'man hes really coming after me', but I think you pointed out a more specific intent.
I will vote W_G when everyone has a good chance to weigh in. I dont want him getting hammered until we are sure.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
Thank you for consolidating what my brain didn't. Mine was more of a 'man hes really coming after me', but I think you pointed out a more specific intent.
I will vote W_G when everyone has a good chance to weigh in. I dont want him getting hammered until we are sure.
What makes you so sure that Wheat is getting lynched toDay?
I'd rather not see myself mislynched when we only have one mislynch left and I'm not sure whether the last scum is Nyxu or Cantrip.
If I'm somehow lynched anyway while I'm away, remember my words, remember the pattern.
Also do not shoot tonight, Incognito, unless there's a scumflip. A mislynch into a misvig means a scum win if the misvig and NK target two different players. If we have a scumflip, it's your choice on whether or not to vig since we'll either have room for either a misvig or a mislynch without losing.
I'm suspicious of Wheat_Grinder because of paranoia. I understand that Wheat has been very much pro town throughout the game, but I believe that words are the easiest thing to fake. That interaction with Annorax at the start of Day 2 feels planned, to me.
I don't know, and I want to discuss the matter more before we lynch.
Also, swishh's posts kind of give me a bad feeling. He's a bit bloodthirsty, and while that's not enough to switch my read of him, it warrants further questioning. I'm not the biggest fan of that vote, either. I'm interested in dragging this day out, because we need more analysis here.
Paranoia is a good word here, and a good way to describe my feelings on this too. Still not sure if it is justified, but by definition, that's kinda what paranoia is.
Swishh's post and vote as well as WG's both seem hasty. I haven't made up my mind about MRH yet, but he just appears to be a low hanging fruit today more than anything right now. Like I said before, if TK had flipped. MRH would have my vote. MRH was already painted as a target yesterday, that coupled with the lack of desire for discussion by the ones voting him, gives me major pause. Cantrip's review on MRH's vote analysis backs up more new player mentality than a scum one.
Question: What will MRH flip (either way) tell us? I do not see major ties to any other players currently. This is another major drawback I have. Who does it implicate or cast suspicion on whichever alignment gets revealed?
Ugh, Wheat. I can't shake the feeling that you're bussing Annorax somehow.
Annorax's play was so bad, an experienced scum would start attacking him right away, but try and slow it down before he actually gets lynched.
What are you saying here? You think Wheat is scum?
YES! I have been saying I think W-G is playing a very good scum game. He actively looks like hes scum hunting, but really hes just pointing out stuff that MIGHT be scummy IF we knew the flips and calling it 'proof'. Plus, as you see below, I think he has more than once represented data to point us at ourselves:
@MRH: Show me what you mean here. Don't just say it...link, explain, and case it.
That ain't something to claim when the doc is dead.
I don't hold the vig against you at all; I was convinced he was scum as well, and would have made the same shot. A note though; if you have another shot, only shoot if we lynch scum; a mislynch and a misvig will lose the game.
Looking at the list of who's left, I feel the worst about MRH, but I don't really feel good about anyone other than Incognito being town.
Annorax played with his heart on his sleeve so I bet we can get a lot of info from his lynch. If I feel like it sometime soon I'll go through and analyze him.
Also, time to massclaim now that 3 PRs are out.
I am Maleficent, VT.
I have said this already, but due to a lack of CC, I believe Incognito. Originally when I read this interaction, the first thought I had was that this was just a huge gambit to out the town's last PR. After all, what was the point in the massclaim after all town PRs were outed other than information gathering. Sure, WG justified it by using it to try to catch noob scum with a fake claim, but that seems a stretch. Believing Incognito, WG's motivation came off a bit suspect. WG's response to Incognito about the misvig reminds me of his reaction to Polski getting NK'd.
My final post for the Day: If I die tonight, if iRebel is scum then DDS is very likely to be scum while Annorax is moderately likely to be town, and if iRebel is town, DDS is very likely town and Annorax is very, very likely to be scum.
TK gives me weird vibes but I'm not sure about him. I've been watching swishh as a possible scum as well, but I'm not sure about him either.
Polski is definitely town.
This was the post that drew out Polski's post that pulled all into a descent down the WIFOM hole. Fence-sitting and a definite buddying up to Polski. Polski' response we all remember.
Hm.
Do you have reason to believe you'll die, Wheat?
If I die, keep an eye on Wheat.
Problem with Polski's post was he didn't give us anything solid to work with. Did he not like fence-sitting, buddying, something else? We can only speculate, because Polski didn't specify. I didn't like WG's response to this by simply hand waving it away as WIFOM. But as a previously posted in one of my Posts regarding MRH, if WG actually is town, I'm not sure what type of town response I would expect.
Take that in conjunction with Annorax's vote on Wheat at day start and the wifom disappears. Plus Annorax has flipped scum.
You mean Annorax's vote on Wheat when Annorax had to know some significant suspicion was coming his way? I don't think the WIFOM evaporates as much as you think. And what does Annorax flipping scum prove?
Also, did you even read the rest of my post? Since your vote's still on MRH, perhaps you could summarize why you're voting him?
Polski said if he dies to look out for Wheat.
Polski dies.
Annorax votes Wheat.
MRH votes Wheat.
No one else votes Wheat.
Annorax flips scum.
I don't see any wifom here.
You think scum would start the day off tunneling each other? No one but MRH joined Annorax in following Polski's FoS. There is exactly one scum between MRH and Wheat. I guess we disagree which.
@Swishh: do you not think it is a possibility? Also, how are you sure there is "exactly one scum between MRH and Wheat"? That statement doesn't seem to have hesitation or drawback.
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Polski said if he dies to look out for Wheat.
Polski dies.
Annorax votes Wheat.
MRH votes Wheat.
No one else votes Wheat.
Annorax flips scum.
I don't see any wifom here.
The green is WIFOM. Polski was town, which means he didn't know Wheat's alignment (no matter how much he suspected it).
Quote from swishh »
You think scum would start the day off tunneling each other?
Absolutely. I wouldn't hesitate to preemptive-strike a scumbuddy if I suspected that buddy might come under significant suspicion that day. I seem to recall doing something similar before, actually, but it's been too long and I don't have time to look it up.
Quote from swishh »
No one but MRH joined Annorax in following Polski's FoS. There is exactly one scum between MRH and Wheat. I guess we disagree which.
This is your reasoning for voting MRH? Because he (exactly once) voted a player that scum was voting? So what that no one else voted Wheat (at that time)? Can you in no way see that action from a town player?
Compare this to Wheat, who's "confirming" that MRH is scum for completely bogus reasons.
I'm not too keen on discussing my meta, which is why I chose to use this gimmick.
Right. Well, could you give me a generality, like "more/less than 10 games completed"?
Quote from Incognito »
@Cantrip: How do you feel about MRHBlue?
Uncertain, he's made some questionable choices. But Wheat's actions make me feel like Wheat is scum, which, given how Wheat went about attacking Blue would make Blue town.
I'd rather not see myself mislynched when we only have one mislynch left and I'm not sure whether the last scum is Nyxu or Cantrip.
If I'm somehow lynched anyway while I'm away, remember my words, remember the pattern.
Also do not shoot tonight, Incognito, unless there's a scumflip. A mislynch into a misvig means a scum win if the misvig and NK target two different players. If we have a scumflip, it's your choice on whether or not to vig since we'll either have room for either a misvig or a mislynch without losing.
Wait, really? It's going to be that easy? You don't even attempt to explain what you were doing when you "analyzed" Blue's votes, you just fearmonger your lynch and provide "helpful" townie advice to the vig?
Cyans scum for wanting to know why you want everyone in the hospital?
I say we lynch WG.
UNVOTE VOTE WG
@Silver. Do you have to be in the same place to target someone? Target me.
Initial read of this post had me believing that AE was scum based on voting Wheaties. But the comment at the end directed at Arianrhod has me believing that AE is Town for wanting to be targeted. I don’t like how AE went about it since it revealed information about his Role, but
Post 255: I feel that this post from Arianrhod best shows that he is Town up to this point. It will be interesting to see who is still voting Arianrhod after this post.
SilverSihhe (4): DYH, Wheat_Grinder, KittyCupCake, AlphaInsidious
Wheat_Grinder (7): Cyan, SilverSihhe, AsianInvasion, Cantripmancer, ganderin_dan, SharkFinnigan, Archmage Eternal
With 18 alive, it takes 10 to lynch.
We see that DYH (Town), Wheaties, KCC and Alpha (Neutral). I’m very interested in both Wheaties and KCC at this point.
Post 258: Cantripmacer, you call out Seppel for Flavor gaming, but not dC. I have a feeling I know the answer to this, but go ahead and tell me anyway.
I disagree with your attack on Arianrhod. His latest post screams Town.
Post 260: I agree with Arianrhod here that Megs post does come across bad, but I don’t see as scummy bad. The reasoning that Megs uses afterwards is just as bad, but I see what Megs is getting at whether he is right or wrong.
Post 266: I do not like the fearmongering that Wheaties used at the end of his post in regards to Arianrhod. “If people have Las Plagas on their list, I'm worried about what might happen if we don't lynch him immediately.”
Post 273: Reading AE’s buddy up to AsianI worried me when I first read, but I believe it is a non-issue since Arianrhod flipped town.
Post 281: Cantrip continues his (her?) attack on Arianrhod. This attack is looking forced at this point. More so since Arianrhod has given an out to “curing” Plagas. Even if Arianrhod was a CL the Mafia would be forced into killing him and the Plagas would no longer be an issue.
Why were you worried about the “one way ticket”?
More attacks on Arianrhod and what he has claimed. But this time the attack is more directed at AsianI rather than Arianrhod. I’m not sure how to interpret this to further my read on you… My gut feels like it is being torn in two here.
Post 298: AE, you would prefer to use abilities to solve the game rather than use analysis? That is how your post reads to me.
Post 312: Mao discredits kpaca in a similar fashion that AsianI did. Possible scumbuddies here.
“I also like KCC for town. Cyan, dC and Alpha, too, maybe.” You have been buddying up to Cyan saying that you like his posts and in this post you gave Cyan another :thumbsup:, but in the end you question your own read on him. I don’t like this post at all.
Post 328: Mao is using WIFOM to claim Wheaties as Town. I don’t like this one bit. More so with the amount of pressure that was on Wheaties at the time.
Post 337: Mao, your choice of words made me believe you were calling Wheaties Town. Your unvote doesn’t help the cause. The line of “I don't know what to think” is forced because of this.
Post 345: Wheaties, You’re too sure of Silver and Shark and yet both of them flipped Town. Going back to Post 342 We have Wheaties proclaiming “I won't proclaim my intuition to work on anyone but Shark this game, fair enough? I know it works on Shark though.” Why is Wheaties alive?
Had a pretty big post which will now be summarized. I was responding to the questions above when something struck me. There was an interesting parallel between the days.
Polski says if he dies, look out for Wheat.
Polski dies.
Wheat and Annorax go after each other.
MRH attacks Wheat.
Annorax gets lynched and implies pinky is fellow scum.
Pinky dies.
Wheat and MRH go after each other.
The key figures here are Wheat, MRH, and Annorax. I take back that there can only be one scum between Wheat and MRH. Cantrip was right - it would be a decent scum strategy (it almost worked on me).
I'm also not used to being alive this late in a game. Since it only takes 4 to lynch, Unvote
I've only played a few games on this site, but where I usually play blitzing is something to look out for.
I'm also not used to being alive this late in a game. Since it only takes 4 to lynch, Unvote
I've only played a few games on this site, but where I usually play blitzing is something to look out for.
Not a fan of that vote, not a fan of that unvote. It was 4 to lynch when you voted MRHBlue and it's still 4 to lynch.
I might have to go back and reread swishh's Day 1 interactions again.
Wheat, you had a habit of pointing out that some of swishh's posts made you feel bad, but I don't remember you singling out any particular one. Can you dredge up those posts that made you feel bad about swishh?
MTG~DDS, since you're probably the only one I feel comfortable calling town (and since I'll probably be shot toNight), how do you feel if we lynch Wheat if he flips town?
Wheat, you had a habit of pointing out that some of swishh's posts made you feel bad, but I don't remember you singling out any particular one. Can you dredge up those posts that made you feel bad about swishh?
Cantrip, more than ten games.
I probably could but not until Sunday and besides I'm pretty certain he's town now anyway.
MTG~DDS, since you're probably the only one I feel comfortable calling town (and since I'll probably be shot toNight), how do you feel if we lynch Wheat if he flips town?
If he flips scum?
I'll give you a quick breakdown of reads as they currently stand, but *disclaimer* I want to do some more looking into interactions.
General Reads
5. Cantripmancer - Claimed VT - seems to be giving solid input, and cases are not getting any rebuttal. Therefore seems sound.
6. MRHblue - Claimed VT - Had a scum read on him, but after recasing, felt like some of the bad posts or moves could have come from town/inexperienced town. My read on him has lessened, but not evaporated.
7. MTG~DDS - Claimed VT - Self
8. Swishh - Claimed VT - Need to look more at interactions, but something D1 caught my interest. (more in later post) His last 2 posts were very contradictory. 542 - seemed dead certain on his read. 552 seems apologetic and timid when called out on bad reason for vote. Almost like he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
9. Nyxu - Claimed VT - Posts have seemed a bit off to me, but still don't quite have a lot to go on. Some of the things he did call out...appeared to be null points at best. Not sure what he was getting at. Swishh seemed to have scared him off again.
10. Wheat_Grinder - Claimed VT - Seemed solid town. Cantrip's case on him seems good, and is not getting rebuttal. His last post had the look of defeat to it. I would want or expect more in way of defense if he was town. He has moved up to top of my scum suspect list currently. (not ready to lynch yet though, lets discuss more).
11. Incognito - Claimed Town Vig - No CC.
If we do lynch Wheat and he flips scum:
5. Cantripmancer - Looks very town. He began casing WG when there was no heat on WG...at all. Scum can bus, but if they were teammates, there was no need to at that time. Cantrip wasn't under suspicion, other than predecessor being lurky. WG wasn't under fire either. Cantrip bussing WG doesn't seem logical at all the way the game was headed. WG flipping scum seems to clear Cantrip.
6. MRHblue - WG bussed Annorax, he could definitely bus MRH. Still possibly scum. However, I think he was just an easy target that the town consensus already had a scum read on him.
7. MTG~DDS - Player's reads on themselves always seem WIFOM to me, so I'll ignore myself.
8. Swishh - The last couple posts really appeared to be trying to speed into a lynch. Jumping on the wagon with WG. It didn't look good, but not sure that it is really damning though. I'm going to look more into interactions though...
9. Nyxu - Lurky, then strange. Fearmongering about his lynch and random things bothered him that he in turn made a point to bring up. Not sure I see a connection one way or the other if WG flips scum though.
10. Wheat_Grinder - For purposes of this exercise he was lynched as scum.
11. Incognito* -
**I need to look more into Swishh and Nyxu. If we lynch WG and he flips Scum, thats where I'm leaning right now.
If we lynch WG and he flips Town:
5. Cantripmancer - Looks much worse if WG flips town. He turned us onto this course of hunting WG. Although by reading through last few pages, MTG~DDS, MRHBlue, and Icognito (Miss anyone?) had same suspicions, just hadn't cased it. There would be some suspicion here though, with a WG town flip.
6. MRHBlue - WG was certain about him. Seems the top suspect. The logic in his case was not the best. At least not the last one WG presented, but that would be a confirmed townie that was convinced of him. He did have some serious back and forth with PB. Some posts were not extremely townie. He also seems very ready to jump on WG wagon. Although, could just be happy to not be under the gun again. MRH is a possibility. @WG: If you are certain about MRH, give us more of a case on him.
7. MTG~DDS - Self again.
8. Swishh - I feel better about Swishh if WG flips town, but again I will be doing a little more legwork. After his last posts, still not 100% ready to clear Swishh with WG Town flip.
9. Nyxu - Again, Lurky. If nothing else to find, its probably because its hiding...I didn't see anything especially redeeming or condemning for him if WG flips town.
10. Wheat_Grinder - Again dead, but this time mislynched town.
11. Incognito* -
***Again, still have some legwork to do. If we do lynch WG and he flips Town, MRH, Cantrip, and Nyxu will be a good place to look. Nyxu needs to post more, because right now all I have from him are weird posts that don't make me feel warm and fuzzy. Don't take this as a final draft of reads though...I will make adjustments or amendments if I find anything significant during reread.
That's it for tonight, I'll be back at it more tomorrow.
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Incognito
Swishh
MTG~DDS
Cantripmancer
Wheat_Grinder
Nyxu
MRHBlue
Ugh, Wheat. I can't shake the feeling that you're bussing Annorax somehow.
I still want to lynch MRHBlue today, but if he flips town I might actually see a Wheat/Nyxu scumteam.
Let's check the vote count analysis.
For the initial quick start on Lord_McD, if there's scum on that wagon it's MRH.
What gets me nervous is the wagon on Annorax:
Annorax (5): swishh, Wheat_Grinder, Lord_McDonalds, Incognito, Trabant777
swishh, I feel, is town for starting the wagon.
L_McD and Trabant have flipped.
I'm town.
I can't shake the feel that there's one scum on that Annorax wagon.
iRebel (6): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh, TK-421, Polski
I feel like this is even more telling.
I'm town.
MTG~DDS has given me townie reads since the beginning of Day 3.
swishh is town for the reasons stated.
TK-421 and Polski have flipped.
Obviously, Nyxu is on that wagon, which is why I feel like we have one scum between Wheat and Nyxu.
There's always scum on a town wagon.
But let's look at the abstainers:
Not Voting: MRHBlue, Lord_McDonalds
That abstain by MRHBlue looks bad.
But this is interesting too:
Annorax (6): Wheat_Grinder; pinkys_brain; Incognito; Nyxu; swishh; Annorax
Wheat and Nyxu are still null, while everyone else looks/flipped town.
Ugh.
It's hard to explain, but I'm l feel like there's two scumteams.
One is MRH/???.
And the other is Wheat/Nyxu.
And there's Cantripmancer, which I just don't know.
Magenta made contentless posts Day 1 and she was absent Day 2.
Ugh. I want to hear more from MRHBlue. Might work on a case on him.
Violet - Confirmed Town
Indigo - Strong Town
Teal - Solid Town
Blue - Leaning Town
Green - Confirmed/Probable Neutrals
Gold - Leaning Scum
Orange - Solid Scum
Red - Confirmed/Strong Scum
When I stop having to go back and remind myself "Incognito is the claimed vig."
I've written two full posts analyzing your behaviour and getting scum reads.
Your scale is... so bizzare in color choice as the visual contrast between scum and town is less than the standard Moarblue=Moartown, MoarRed = MoarScum .
Not to mention the heavy use of priming throughout your posts by slapping color everywhere. (Influencing the way people read your post by using color). You make heavy assumptions and have basically chained lynches together with MrH and then your purported WG/Nyx scumteam. It's just bad. But calling you out on it like this? Risks me getting quicklynched and damaging the gamestate further (Because the current number of dead town is bad enough).
TL;DR I'm getting fried out with false positives because uncc'd vig and knowledge of how basics are balanced means yes, you're probably town. You're just ringing a lot of alarm bells and passing out flags like it's Oprah's favourite thing.
Why are you so concerned about my use of color codes?
How am I "chaining lynches" and why are you so concerned about getting quicklynched?
That was technically the third. The first and second got blanked out when I reminded myself "No, that's the most-likely-town Vig"
I'm concerned about your overuse of color because it does more than just organize. It, pardon the required pun here, colors the way people view interactions. You first remove context from the actual actions (By removing them from their context. Unavoidable) then give them a shiny new context in the form of colors. If two people have the same color they'll naturally link them. If you color someone blue people tend to associate positive, red negative, et cetera et cetera.
Read Basic 67's final day for an in-depth of why I'm hesitant to do things like this. It's short, but I gunned after someone I thought was scum but was effectively confirmed town.
Guess who got rapidlynched.
"If MrHBlue is town then one of WG/Nyxu is scum" message I got from some of your post, but then you called WG/Nyxu null.. internal consistency is tech.
What about my flipping town will make a case against Wheat/Nyux? Is it only PoE?
So a confirmed town abstains, and I look bad for abstaining?
Is there anything I can clear up for you?
I agree with the analysis of swishh; him being town is well-supported by him being on the wagon.
@Incognito: Why do you believe there has to be a scum on every wagon?
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
The Annorax wagon is very town-dominated. The only person on the wagon who might not be town is Nyxu. This tells me the scum are not very bussy. I then see Sixed as the only player to jump on MRHBlue, and can't help but feel that makes Nyxu (r. Sixed) very likely town.
I see also that Magenta never once voted. Ever. This makes me think Cantripmancer (r. Magenta) is scum.
DDS was voted by Annorax so he's likely town.
tl;dr: Cantripmancer and MRHblue are almost certainly the last two scum
Vote: MRHblue
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WUGBant NOGUW
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And how does Basic 67's endgame = vote analysis? Why are you so worried about getting quicklynched?
Also, the chaining lynches thing is just simple POE. Cantrip and you are just null reads to me.
Wheat, I want to trust you. I want to believe that you're solidly town and Cantrip and MRH are the last two scum.
However, part of me feels like the Annorax bus was orchestrated.
From your first post D2 voting Annorax to Annorax's first post OMGUSing you.. I just can't shake it.
I think the best plan of action toDay is to lynch MRHBlue, and evaluate if he flips town or scum.
If he flips town, I think I would go after Wheat, and possibly Nyxu.
If he flips scum, then Wheat is probably very townie and we'll go after Cantripmancer.
I'll probably go back and reread MRHBlue more closely, and check Wheat's and Annorax's interactions.
I find manipulative posts scummy. I find manipulative behaviour scummy. Color use and priming is manipulative so whenever I read through you falsepositive me so hard I have to stop working.
Vote analysis is NOT what I was talking about re 67. 67 was me getting quicklynched and the town losing. I'm concerned about getting lynched over calling out a townie's terrible play because it accomplishes and proves nothing.
We can have some more discussion but I think I'm ready to lynch MRHBlue today.
What are you saying here? You think Wheat is scum?
Does that make sense?
as for nopressure on me?
I've been dumb lurky this game. I've not contributed as much as I wanted to and I'm well aware of it. So if I go from lurky to calling out bad practice in town, I'm rather jaded on people stringing me up for things like that. (67, VM2). Not to mention that ohay, lurky is the meta for scum on this site.
I didn't like Sixed's posts, and I don't like yours today.
Do tell us more about how I should go back to not talking at all.
@Incognito and MRHBlue: How many games of online Mafia have you played previous to this one?
Additional thoughts to come after those questions are asked.
Meep. Fixed.
If the only alternatives are bad posts or no posts, the latter would be easier for you.
@Incognito and MRHBlue: What were your alignments in those previous games (how many town/how many scum)?
This is not productive discussion. Whichever one of you is more adult, please drop it and move on.
MRHblue (1): Wheat_Grinder
Not Voting: Cantripmancer; Incognito; MRHBlue; MTG~DDS; Nyxu; swishh
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch!
V/LA
Wheat_Grinder until 5/17/13
Are you convinced enough that MRH is scum that no more discussion is merited today? Could you give a quick summary of your case on MRH? The vote seems quick, especially with such a low lynch threshold.
Admittedly, MRH was my biggest scum read entering the day. If TK had flipped scum, I would probably not be hesitant. Problem is, TK flipped town. After re-casing MRH, I am not ready to vote him yet.
@Incognito: why do you have 2 distinct scum teams? What I am getting at is this: Are you finding interactions that tie Cantrip to MRH, and conversely Nyxu to WG? I am getting far more town read from Cantrip than Nyxu currently, and not sure either is tethered to MRH flipping either way. Cantrip has been giving analysis and input, whereas Nyxu seems more defensive and evasive. What is your read on Cantrip?
I am not opposed to a lynch, but I am opposed to a lynch without more discussion than we've had.
At best, currently, I have to /barn this statement. Only thing I would change is Cantrip has a more town read for me than Nyxu. Goes back to question above. WG has been a tough read for me this whole game, and I have not really found any specific post to condemn him. I am still in the process of following up on the interactions that Cantrip previously outlined and retracing the case presented. He raised some interesting points that are worth investigating.
This sounds like you are having suspicions about WG. Am I getting your read correct there? More discussion is warranted before a vote if that's true...
Is your read on Nyxu based on you not believing that scum are bussing this game?
This reeks of fearmongering.
Calling out Incognito is not bad. Townies can make mistakes. What is concerning (at least to me) is what you decided to call out. You called me out for quoting Incognito when I was asking you to post more (me using Incognito's post to "add weight to my post"). Then you call out Incognito for trying to be manipulative in his use of colors. His color scheme was not the normal one, but do you actually think he was being manipulative with that color usage? I think WG already hit on this point.
I'll post more hopefully later tonight.
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
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EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
I'm absolutely certain of MRH though. The data points too strongly to it.
FTR, will you specify/summarize which data you refer to that make you so certain?
@Swishh: YesterDay (at least as late as 344/345), you were convinced Annorax and Wheat were scum. 345 was your case against Annorax, and included "I'll comment on W_G later." In 400, you've switched to "TK and Annorax are scum", and in 409 you're "feeling better about W_G" and are more interested in lynching TK. What, specifically, made you feel better about Wheat between 344 and 400/409?
Wow...rereading that series of posts, it felt like everyone was trying to avoid lynching Annorax. Wheat, swishh, even Incognito.
@Incog: Your votecount analysis in 405 used a more standard blue-red color schema; why did you feel the need to fragment it in the more recent attempts?
Posts 516 and 517
I was certain about Annorax and this post made it sound like his plan was to get Wheat lynched for what Polski said.
Come day 2, Annorax and MRH were the first (and I think only) ones to vote Wheat. If MRH flips scum, Wheat will definitely be town.
[B]Vote: MRHBlue[/B]
For consistency, comments will follow the votecounts.
===============================================================
Wheat Grinder (1): Annorax
MRHBlue (1): Sixed
Trabant777 (2): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito
Lord_McDonalds (5): Grimnar, TK-421, swishh, Trabant777, MRHBlue
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Lord_McDonalds
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This first one came after Annorax RVS-voted Wheat, but it also put Lord at claim range. Definitely questionable.
===============================================================
MRHBlue (1): Sixed
Trabant777 (3): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, swishh
Lord_McDonalds (2): TK-421, MRHBlue
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Lord_McDonalds, Annorax, Trabant777, Grimnar
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the same wagon and the "sheeping" occurred because swishh unvoted, (Annorax unvoted and FoS'd Lord), and Trabant unvoted. Not sheeping.
===============================================================
Lord_McDonalds (3): TK-421, MRHBlue, Annorax
swishh (1): Sixed
Annorax (5): swishh, Wheat_Grinder, Lord_McDonalds, Incognito, Trabant777
Trabant777 (1): MTG~DDS,
Not Voting: Magenta, Grimnar,
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This is still the same day, same series of events. Note that the "voting with Annorax" occurs because Annorax votes Lord (after MRH).
===============================================================
Lord_McDonalds (3): TK-421, MRHBlue, Annorax
Magenta (1): Sixed
Annorax (3): Lord_McDonalds, Incognito, Trabant777
Trabant777 (1): Wheat_Grinder,
Not Voting: Magenta, MTG~DDS, Polski, swishh,
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Same day, nothing changed.
===============================================================
Lord_McDonalds (2): TK-421, MRHBlue,
Magenta (1): Sixed
Annorax (1): Lord_McDonalds,
iRebel (4): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh
MTG~DDS (4): Polski, Annorax, iRebel, Magenta,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Same day, Annorax has bailed to DDS (but MRH stays put).
===============================================================
iRebel (6): Wheat_Grinder, Incognito, MTG~DDS, swishh, TK-421, Polski
MTG~DDS (3): Annorax, iRebel, Magenta
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Incognito left out who wasn't voting on this one (MRH, Lord, Nyxu), and MRH hasn't sheeped either TK (who got on a town wagon) or Annorax.
(Psst. Wheat. Magenta did vote. Not saying that this one exception really matters for the purposes of your argument, but she did vote.)
===============================================================
Annorax (2): Wheat_Grinder, swishh
TK-421 (1): Incognito
Wheat_Grinder (2): Annorax, MRHBlue
Not Voting (5): Lord_McDonalds; Magenta; MTG~DDS; Nyxu; TK-421
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follows Annorax onto Wheat (using Polski-WIFOM as rationale). Suspicious.
===============================================================
Annorax (4): Wheat_Grinder, swishh; pinkys_brain; Incognito
Wheat_Grinder (2): Annorax, MRHBlue
pinky's brain (1):; TK-421
Not Voting: Magenta; MTG~DDS; Nyxu
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No change.
===============================================================
Annorax (3): Wheat_Grinder; pinkys_brain; Incognito
Wheat_Grinder (1): Annorax
pinky's brain (2): TK-421; MRHBlue
Not Voting: Cantripmancer; MTG~DDS; Nyxu; swishh
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TK votes Pinky's Brain in 350 (pretty much OMGUS). MRH votes PB in 397, with plenty of back and forth between MRH and PB (started by PB attacking MRH) in the meantime. Not sure this can be classified as sheeping TK (although MRH does "agree" with TK when MRH votes PB).
===============================================================
Annorax (6): Wheat_Grinder; pinkys_brain; Incognito; Nyxu; swishh; Annorax
pinky's brain (2): TK-421; MRHBlue
Not Voting: Cantripmancer; MTG~DDS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No change.
===============================================================
tl;dr...so Wheat, the data that makes you "sure" that MRH is scum is:
However, in reality, it went more like:
1. MRH put Lord at claim range (suspicious, but could be done by new town).
2. Annorax joined MRH on Lord's wagon (can't be held against MRH).
3. MRH unvoted Lord (ok).
Day 2
4. MRH voted Wheat after Annorax, using Polski-WIFOM as rationale (suspicious, but again, could be done by new town unfamiliar with the pitfalls of WIFOM).
5. MRH votes Pinky's Brain after TK, but with a whole bunch of reasoning and almost 50 posts (ok).
One assisting a quick wagon on a townie to claim range, one following of Annorax onto your wagon, one not-really-sheeping of TK...what else?
Basically, you "helped" by standardizing Incognito's vote count listing, didn't actually do any "analysis" beyond glancing at what could be interpreted as scummy patterns, and have now latched onto it as "proof" that MRH is scum. You're more experienced than this.
In combination with some of the questionable choices I highlighted before, I now have ample reason to...
Vote: Wheat_Grinder
EWP: Swishh, do you acknowledge that the quote by Annorax you quoted is just as much WIFOM as Polski's statement? If so, why does it lend any amount of significant weight?
You mean Annorax's vote on Wheat when Annorax had to know some significant suspicion was coming his way? I don't think the WIFOM evaporates as much as you think. And what does Annorax flipping scum prove?
Also, did you even read the rest of my post? Since your vote's still on MRH, perhaps you could summarize why you're voting him?
Polski said if he dies to look out for Wheat.
Polski dies.
Annorax votes Wheat.
MRH votes Wheat.
No one else votes Wheat.
Annorax flips scum.
I don't see any wifom here.
You think scum would start the day off tunneling each other? No one but MRH joined Annorax in following Polski's FoS. There is exactly one scum between MRH and Wheat. I guess we disagree which.
I'm not too keen on discussing my meta, which is why I chose to use this gimmick.
I switched to a more fragmented vote analysis because it allowed me some more clear distinctions on leaning town/neutral/leaning scum.
MTG~DDS, I feel like Cantrip is very slightly leaning town. He's provided useful analysis, but his town/scum list is more flipped than mine. Though, his analysis is winning me over.
I'm suspicious of Wheat_Grinder because of paranoia. I understand that Wheat has been very much pro town throughout the game, but I believe that words are the easiest thing to fake. That interaction with Annorax at the start of Day 2 feels planned, to me.
I don't know, and I want to discuss the matter more before we lynch.
Also, swishh's posts kind of give me a bad feeling. He's a bit bloodthirsty, and while that's not enough to switch my read of him, it warrants further questioning. I'm not the biggest fan of that vote, either. I'm interested in dragging this day out, because we need more analysis here.
@Cantrip: How do you feel about MRHBlue?
YES! I have been saying I think W-G is playing a very good scum game. He actively looks like hes scum hunting, but really hes just pointing out stuff that MIGHT be scummy IF we knew the flips and calling it 'proof'. Plus, as you see below, I think he has more than once represented data to point us at ourselves:
Thank you for consolidating what my brain didn't. Mine was more of a 'man hes really coming after me', but I think you pointed out a more specific intent.
I will vote W_G when everyone has a good chance to weigh in. I dont want him getting hammered until we are sure.
What makes you so sure that Wheat is getting lynched toDay?
Please clarify the bolded.
If I'm somehow lynched anyway while I'm away, remember my words, remember the pattern.
Also do not shoot tonight, Incognito, unless there's a scumflip. A mislynch into a misvig means a scum win if the misvig and NK target two different players. If we have a scumflip, it's your choice on whether or not to vig since we'll either have room for either a misvig or a mislynch without losing.
Paranoia is a good word here, and a good way to describe my feelings on this too. Still not sure if it is justified, but by definition, that's kinda what paranoia is.
Swishh's post and vote as well as WG's both seem hasty. I haven't made up my mind about MRH yet, but he just appears to be a low hanging fruit today more than anything right now. Like I said before, if TK had flipped. MRH would have my vote. MRH was already painted as a target yesterday, that coupled with the lack of desire for discussion by the ones voting him, gives me major pause. Cantrip's review on MRH's vote analysis backs up more new player mentality than a scum one.
Question: What will MRH flip (either way) tell us? I do not see major ties to any other players currently. This is another major drawback I have. Who does it implicate or cast suspicion on whichever alignment gets revealed?
@MRH: Show me what you mean here. Don't just say it...link, explain, and case it.
I have said this already, but due to a lack of CC, I believe Incognito. Originally when I read this interaction, the first thought I had was that this was just a huge gambit to out the town's last PR. After all, what was the point in the massclaim after all town PRs were outed other than information gathering. Sure, WG justified it by using it to try to catch noob scum with a fake claim, but that seems a stretch. Believing Incognito, WG's motivation came off a bit suspect. WG's response to Incognito about the misvig reminds me of his reaction to Polski getting NK'd.
The response seems callous both times.
This was the post that drew out Polski's post that pulled all into a descent down the WIFOM hole. Fence-sitting and a definite buddying up to Polski. Polski' response we all remember.
Problem with Polski's post was he didn't give us anything solid to work with. Did he not like fence-sitting, buddying, something else? We can only speculate, because Polski didn't specify. I didn't like WG's response to this by simply hand waving it away as WIFOM. But as a previously posted in one of my Posts regarding MRH, if WG actually is town, I'm not sure what type of town response I would expect.
@Swishh: do you not think it is a possibility? Also, how are you sure there is "exactly one scum between MRH and Wheat"? That statement doesn't seem to have hesitation or drawback.
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The green is WIFOM. Polski was town, which means he didn't know Wheat's alignment (no matter how much he suspected it).
Absolutely. I wouldn't hesitate to preemptive-strike a scumbuddy if I suspected that buddy might come under significant suspicion that day. I seem to recall doing something similar before, actually, but it's been too long and I don't have time to look it up.
This is your reasoning for voting MRH? Because he (exactly once) voted a player that scum was voting? So what that no one else voted Wheat (at that time)? Can you in no way see that action from a town player?
Compare this to Wheat, who's "confirming" that MRH is scum for completely bogus reasons.
Right. Well, could you give me a generality, like "more/less than 10 games completed"?
Uncertain, he's made some questionable choices. But Wheat's actions make me feel like Wheat is scum, which, given how Wheat went about attacking Blue would make Blue town.
Thanks. That helps put my reads in better perspective.
Wait, really? It's going to be that easy? You don't even attempt to explain what you were doing when you "analyzed" Blue's votes, you just fearmonger your lynch and provide "helpful" townie advice to the vig?
Mmm, being right feels good.
Initial read of this post had me believing that AE was scum based on voting Wheaties. But the comment at the end directed at Arianrhod has me believing that AE is Town for wanting to be targeted. I don’t like how AE went about it since it revealed information about his Role, but
Post 255: I feel that this post from Arianrhod best shows that he is Town up to this point. It will be interesting to see who is still voting Arianrhod after this post.
Looking at the VC from Iso:
We see that DYH (Town), Wheaties, KCC and Alpha (Neutral). I’m very interested in both Wheaties and KCC at this point.
Post 258: Cantripmacer, you call out Seppel for Flavor gaming, but not dC. I have a feeling I know the answer to this, but go ahead and tell me anyway.
I disagree with your attack on Arianrhod. His latest post screams Town.
Post 260: I agree with Arianrhod here that Megs post does come across bad, but I don’t see as scummy bad. The reasoning that Megs uses afterwards is just as bad, but I see what Megs is getting at whether he is right or wrong.
Post 266: I do not like the fearmongering that Wheaties used at the end of his post in regards to Arianrhod. “If people have Las Plagas on their list, I'm worried about what might happen if we don't lynch him immediately.”
Post 273: Reading AE’s buddy up to AsianI worried me when I first read, but I believe it is a non-issue since Arianrhod flipped town.
Post 281: Cantrip continues his (her?) attack on Arianrhod. This attack is looking forced at this point. More so since Arianrhod has given an out to “curing” Plagas. Even if Arianrhod was a CL the Mafia would be forced into killing him and the Plagas would no longer be an issue.
Why were you worried about the “one way ticket”?
More attacks on Arianrhod and what he has claimed. But this time the attack is more directed at AsianI rather than Arianrhod. I’m not sure how to interpret this to further my read on you… My gut feels like it is being torn in two here.
Post 298: AE, you would prefer to use abilities to solve the game rather than use analysis? That is how your post reads to me.
Post 312: Mao discredits kpaca in a similar fashion that AsianI did. Possible scumbuddies here.
“I also like KCC for town. Cyan, dC and Alpha, too, maybe.” You have been buddying up to Cyan saying that you like his posts and in this post you gave Cyan another :thumbsup:, but in the end you question your own read on him. I don’t like this post at all.
Post 328: Mao is using WIFOM to claim Wheaties as Town. I don’t like this one bit. More so with the amount of pressure that was on Wheaties at the time.
Post 337: Mao, your choice of words made me believe you were calling Wheaties Town. Your unvote doesn’t help the cause. The line of “I don't know what to think” is forced because of this.
Post 345: Wheaties, You’re too sure of Silver and Shark and yet both of them flipped Town. Going back to Post 342 We have Wheaties proclaiming “I won't proclaim my intuition to work on anyone but Shark this game, fair enough? I know it works on Shark though.” Why is Wheaties alive?
More to come at another time.
Keep calm and carry on.
Had a pretty big post which will now be summarized. I was responding to the questions above when something struck me. There was an interesting parallel between the days.
Polski says if he dies, look out for Wheat.
Polski dies.
Wheat and Annorax go after each other.
MRH attacks Wheat.
Annorax gets lynched and implies pinky is fellow scum.
Pinky dies.
Wheat and MRH go after each other.
The key figures here are Wheat, MRH, and Annorax. I take back that there can only be one scum between Wheat and MRH. Cantrip was right - it would be a decent scum strategy (it almost worked on me).
I'm also not used to being alive this late in a game. Since it only takes 4 to lynch,
Unvote
I've only played a few games on this site, but where I usually play blitzing is something to look out for.
Not a fan of that vote, not a fan of that unvote. It was 4 to lynch when you voted MRHBlue and it's still 4 to lynch.
I might have to go back and reread swishh's Day 1 interactions again.
Wheat, you had a habit of pointing out that some of swishh's posts made you feel bad, but I don't remember you singling out any particular one. Can you dredge up those posts that made you feel bad about swishh?
Cantrip, more than ten games.
If he flips scum?
I probably could but not until Sunday and besides I'm pretty certain he's town now anyway.
I'll give you a quick breakdown of reads as they currently stand, but *disclaimer* I want to do some more looking into interactions.
General Reads
5. Cantripmancer - Claimed VT - seems to be giving solid input, and cases are not getting any rebuttal. Therefore seems sound.
6. MRHblue - Claimed VT - Had a scum read on him, but after recasing, felt like some of the bad posts or moves could have come from town/inexperienced town. My read on him has lessened, but not evaporated.
7. MTG~DDS - Claimed VT - Self
8. Swishh - Claimed VT - Need to look more at interactions, but something D1 caught my interest. (more in later post) His last 2 posts were very contradictory. 542 - seemed dead certain on his read. 552 seems apologetic and timid when called out on bad reason for vote. Almost like he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
9. Nyxu - Claimed VT - Posts have seemed a bit off to me, but still don't quite have a lot to go on. Some of the things he did call out...appeared to be null points at best. Not sure what he was getting at. Swishh seemed to have scared him off again.
10. Wheat_Grinder - Claimed VT - Seemed solid town. Cantrip's case on him seems good, and is not getting rebuttal. His last post had the look of defeat to it. I would want or expect more in way of defense if he was town. He has moved up to top of my scum suspect list currently. (not ready to lynch yet though, lets discuss more).
11. Incognito - Claimed Town Vig - No CC.
If we do lynch Wheat and he flips scum:
5. Cantripmancer - Looks very town. He began casing WG when there was no heat on WG...at all. Scum can bus, but if they were teammates, there was no need to at that time. Cantrip wasn't under suspicion, other than predecessor being lurky. WG wasn't under fire either. Cantrip bussing WG doesn't seem logical at all the way the game was headed. WG flipping scum seems to clear Cantrip.
6. MRHblue - WG bussed Annorax, he could definitely bus MRH. Still possibly scum. However, I think he was just an easy target that the town consensus already had a scum read on him.
7. MTG~DDS - Player's reads on themselves always seem WIFOM to me, so I'll ignore myself.
8. Swishh - The last couple posts really appeared to be trying to speed into a lynch. Jumping on the wagon with WG. It didn't look good, but not sure that it is really damning though. I'm going to look more into interactions though...
9. Nyxu - Lurky, then strange. Fearmongering about his lynch and random things bothered him that he in turn made a point to bring up. Not sure I see a connection one way or the other if WG flips scum though.
10. Wheat_Grinder - For purposes of this exercise he was lynched as scum.
11. Incognito* -
**I need to look more into Swishh and Nyxu. If we lynch WG and he flips Scum, thats where I'm leaning right now.
If we lynch WG and he flips Town:
5. Cantripmancer - Looks much worse if WG flips town. He turned us onto this course of hunting WG. Although by reading through last few pages, MTG~DDS, MRHBlue, and Icognito (Miss anyone?) had same suspicions, just hadn't cased it. There would be some suspicion here though, with a WG town flip.
6. MRHBlue - WG was certain about him. Seems the top suspect. The logic in his case was not the best. At least not the last one WG presented, but that would be a confirmed townie that was convinced of him. He did have some serious back and forth with PB. Some posts were not extremely townie. He also seems very ready to jump on WG wagon. Although, could just be happy to not be under the gun again. MRH is a possibility. @WG: If you are certain about MRH, give us more of a case on him.
7. MTG~DDS - Self again.
8. Swishh - I feel better about Swishh if WG flips town, but again I will be doing a little more legwork. After his last posts, still not 100% ready to clear Swishh with WG Town flip.
9. Nyxu - Again, Lurky. If nothing else to find, its probably because its hiding...I didn't see anything especially redeeming or condemning for him if WG flips town.
10. Wheat_Grinder - Again dead, but this time mislynched town.
11. Incognito* -
***Again, still have some legwork to do. If we do lynch WG and he flips Town, MRH, Cantrip, and Nyxu will be a good place to look. Nyxu needs to post more, because right now all I have from him are weird posts that don't make me feel warm and fuzzy. Don't take this as a final draft of reads though...I will make adjustments or amendments if I find anything significant during reread.
That's it for tonight, I'll be back at it more tomorrow.
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU