Yeah, I'm loathe to admit this but I think that Wheat might be our best bet toDay. I do admit that if he flips scum he has played a good game.
The main thing that bugged me when I read your post was Nyxu. The fact that he's "eh" both if Wheat flips town and/or scum rings alarm bells to me. I want to hear more from Nyxu before we lynch Wheat - he's just active lurking at this point, but we all can't get a read on him. Ugh.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
I'm also not used to being alive this late in a game. Since it only takes 4 to lynch, Unvote
I've only played a few games on this site, but where I usually play blitzing is something to look out for.
The orange is your attempt at a disclaimer for why you're making questionable choices. As Incognito pointed out, the red does not jive with your initial vote.
I probably could but not until Sunday and besides I'm pretty certain he's town now anyway.
With each successive post you make without rebuttal, the better I feel. But maybe you're just really busy (as your V/LA indicates), so I have no problem waiting to lynch you until you have time to fabricate rationale for your actions.
5. Cantripmancer - Claimed VT - seems to be giving solid input, and cases are not getting any rebuttal. Therefore seems sound sounds legit.
FTFY (sorry, couldn't resist; that's what I heard when I read your sentence).
Quote from MTG~DDS »
8. Swishh - Claimed VT - Need to look more at interactions, but something D1 caught my interest. (more in later post)
Was the bolded saying you'd post more on this later in the same post (in which case, I don't see it), or that you'd post more on this in a later post?
Quote from DDS »
11. Incognito* -
**I need to look more into Swishh and Nyxu. If we lynch WG and he flips Scum, thats where I'm leaning right now.
Is the * next to Incognito because of his prod or is it related to the double ** after him? If not, is the double ** supposed to refer back to something in your post (as asterisks often do)?
Quote from DDS »
5. Cantripmancer - Looks much worse if WG flips town. He turned us onto this course of hunting WG. Although by reading through last few pages, MTG~DDS, MRHBlue, and Icognito (Miss anyone?) had same suspicions, just hadn't cased it. There would be some suspicion here though, with a WG town flip.
Yeah, if Wheat flips town, it won't reflect well on me, especially if Blue later comes up scum...but I'm feeling pretty good about Wheat's silence.
11. Incognito* -
**I need to look more into Swishh and Nyxu. If we lynch WG and he flips Scum, thats where I'm leaning right now.
Is the * next to Incognito because of his prod or is it related to the double ** after him? If not, is the double ** supposed to refer back to something in your post (as asterisks often do)?
It was related to the prod. I copied the list from opening page to not miss anyone. Double asterisk (and maybe triple later on) was just me denoting my summary of that section. Sorry for the confusion.
Follow up on a couple things. Post 36: The post that I took fire for on day 1. I was scrutinized for not knowing 9-3 setup. I concede that it is general knowledge, and I probably should have known it. Not arguing either way about that.
Swishh either didn't know that fact either, or he was mudslinging. WG didn't call that post out. Maybe my wording was stronger, but they both have the same implications. Did both not merit a label of mudslinging from WG? The only other difference I see is that Sixed ignored Swishh, whereas LMCD reacted to my comment. Post 42: Trabant's post implies that he also, wasn't sure about the numbers.
So you're going to assume that I knew the scum count while Lord_McDonalds was merely guessing?
The point for posting the above:
It wasn't until post 50 that WG called me out for mudslinging. 2 other players already posting thoughts close to mine, but I was the only one he called out. I don't really think that shows anything about Swishh's alignment, but it was the first time in my notes I had suspicion on WG. Also, could show WG giving Swishh a slide on something he was calling me out for. 1st minor indicator of possible WG/Swishh being buddies?
Swishh post 79: He called out WG on several inconsistencies. This post (if WG scum) could be an early beginning to bussing, but I'm not sold on that. This gives points to Swishh and WG either not teammates or bussing early. Swishh/WG team not an impossibility, but I don't see the advantage to starting bus job this early. Someone with more experience feel free to correct my statement, if I'm wrong. Coupled with previous post 50 analysis it looks a little worse, but not a whole lot.
Post 86: I think someone referenced part of this one earlier. Swishh's prior post was his scum rainbow. At the bottom says "will gladly explain." WG questions, Swishh follows up with, "I'm not that 'sure'." That does look awkward, but going back to interactions, doesn't lend to WG/Swishh team unless this was planned early on. Post 101, Swishh did follow up with reasonings. So some of the weird points he earned with the slight contradiction dissipate a bit. Although his latest posts have had similar minor contradictions in them.
Post 134: Swishh calling out Sixed for naked vote and dodging questions. Interactions with Sixed, now Nyxu. Sixed calls Swishh scum, votes him, and gives no reasoning. Sixed was pretty inactive, and Swishh calls him for bad vote(well, naked vote). If they were teammates, this interaction seems way to early and unnecessary. Neither of them were under much pressure. This series gives points against Swishh/Nyxu team.
Post 139: good vote by Swishh following a bad post by Annorax. Only thing is, this is the first point in the game where it would make sense to me to begin bussing. Annorax would definitely appear to be a liability at this point. Not calling Swishh scum for this as hard fact(because that could also be a good town vote), but at this point I don't think it actually goes against the possibility of a Swishh/Annorax team.
These were some of the D1 things I alluded to in my previous post. The interactions Swishh has with WG to this point are either very positive for Swishh, or show early orchestration. Not sure of which. Also as a note, to this point in D1, Swishh was leaning heavily town for me. WG stopping the runaway LMCD wagon and LMCDs (PBs) eventual flip took away some of the suspicions I had on WG. It was definitely a pro-town move, but I can also see how that can be used to earn town cred. I'll finish D1 and D2 hopefully today.
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Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
I try getting active and all of a sudden "bluhh bluhh bad posts"
I do not have valuable information or discovery to post. I have not found anything to jump on and rip open. Try as I might I just can't nab a solid read on anyone. Either I'm "Lurking" by not being very active while I try and keep up with this game, or I'm "Actively Lurking" by not having a color-coded list, in triplicate, turned in at the start of every week.
Right now, hating Swishh. Not happy that I've been duct-taped to WG by DDS.
I get that my comments about 67 sound "Fearmongery" because it was the final lynch but I was told to explain why I was concerned about a quicklynch. We still have, what? One Mislynch? Even if we had more leeway to remove suspect players and continue the game I'd be antsy about going after the un-cc'd pr because going after probably-town and getting lynched for it doesn't help the town win. All it does is waste a day. That's -my- rationale for -my- behaviour. You lot are, presumably, autonomous enough to develop your own rationale for what you do.
9. Nyxu - Lurky, then strange. Fearmongering about his lynch and random things bothered him that he in turn made a point to bring up. Not sure I see a connection one way or the other if WG flips scum though.
Then
9. Nyxu - Again, Lurky. If nothing else to find, its probably because its hiding...I didn't see anything especially redeeming or condemning for him if WG flips town.
I don't see that as trying to make a connection between WG and you.
Sixed - post 160: best post made by Sixed. Gave reads and input. This is where he answers for the accusation and naked vote on Swishh.
Regarding my Swishh vote, it was partially that he was trying far too hard to seem town, rather than simply scumhunting and being town. So I throw an accusation and vote at him to see how he responds, and how other people respond to it. I'd call it inconclusive for now, but I like having reactions to look back on after a few flips are generated
Swishh spearheading the Annorax lynch makes me feel a bit better about him, at least.
Sixed gave reads on most players in this post. Overall, good post. The explanation about Swishh vote looks flimsy though, but probably true?
This is the post he switched vote from Swishh to Magenta/Cantrip. Logic behind it given but not elaborated on very well. Still can see argument given as valid, even though very short. This post was not bad...the very next post, WG states he is "ignoring Sixed the rest of the game". I'm confused what that was about. @WG: was there something in that post that merits that response? If you answered this already I didn't find it in this section.
@ swishh: I'm "ignoring" L_McD and Annorax because they're not atop my scum list at this moment. MTG~DDS is.
Though if you do mislynch me today, how will that effect your reads? Same question to Annorax.
If you flip town I'll have to rethink Wheat_Grinder.
Didn't get into D2 yet, not sure if this was addressed or not.
Between 160ish to 260ish, posting was saturated with discussion about DDS and iRebel. Me discussing the section would probably get people drunk off WIFOM. Might be worth someone else exploring, but I am probably not the best person to do it.
Post 275 enter Nyxu
Post 283 - announces intention to hammer 12hr later. No reads or additional content provided. The hammer vote was not bad, not giving input was.
Post 291 - justifies slow hammer but still doesn't give reads.
D1 ends at Post 300.
Not sure how much weight to give interactions day 1. Not sure if analysis has been productive or not. All I am concluding currently is all up to interpretation anyway. There is alot of gray area in my last post. Therefore, I have no hard conclusions from looking back at D1. I'll be checking into D2 next for interactions after first flips revealed. Hopefully that will be a little more fruitful.
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Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
Thank you for consolidating what my brain didn't. Mine was more of a 'man hes really coming after me', but I think you pointed out a more specific intent.
I will vote W_G when everyone has a good chance to weigh in. I dont want him getting hammered until we are sure.
What makes you so sure that Wheat is getting lynched toDay?
Please clarify the bolded.
I am not sure, I was saying thats where my vote would be if it didnt put him in hammer range.
On the bold I meant I was trying to stay away from 'OMGUS' just because he was pressuring me.
I know there are other questions out there for me, I only had a few mins to pop in.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
Thank you for that analysis, MTG~DDS. I would analyze with you too, but I'm kind of crunched on time this week.
The thing is, Nyxu, you haven't done much this game. I feel like the goal of every Vanilla Townie is to be recognized as town and eat the nightkill. You've been complaining that the game has made you lurky, and you sorta become a "eh, I guess" lynch option.
This is expanded upon because everyone has a null read on you.
If you're town, you don't want to get mislynched.
The thing is, you're an acceptable lynch target right now. I could push to lynch you and I think wouldn't get much opposition at all. You're not trying hard to be town, I think is the message here. This is particularly relevant because you're a lynch candidate at lylo (if we mislynch).
Ugh. I need to analyze Nyxu's behavior more. My goal toDay is to come out with a good read on him.
D2 Interactions: Everyone note that this is finishing up the response to Incognito's question about alignments if we lynch WG today. I was specifically looking to see interactions with WG and if they could indicate alignment (according to the hypothetical lynching of WG).
post 302 - WG - Naked vote on Annorax.
Already mentioned as bus job on Annorax. He could definitely be seen as a liability at this point and a proper candidate for other scum to bus. After sifting through D1 posts, I am actually surprised Annorax did not get lynched D1. Not sure why we let him off the hook. So, this actually could be taken at face value. Annorax did need to be lynched. Not definitive scum points here.
posts 305 & 306 - Nyxu - Calling out WG pretty hard for naked voting Annorax.
Post 310 - Annorax - Voting WG right back. The OMGUS vote, knowing his alignment, can more likely be taken as reacting to a bus. Or just simply flailing.
Post 313 - MRH - calls out WG for "buddying" Polski, asks for reaction to his infamous death statement. No alignment indications here that I can see.
Post 316 - Swishh - I liked this post. Questions WG's 'eh' response to Polski's NK. Not sure about the second part. 3rd section he defends TK. Incognito later backs off the vote in 339.
319 - WG - Already discussed.
Posts 313/318/321/325 - MRH - pushing hard on getting more than hand wave answer for the WIFOM. Never gets more than that. Eventual vote due to that. This interaction lends more to MRH/WG not being scum team together. Doesn't really point to either specifically as scum, just not a team.
Post 326 - Swishh - vote on Annorax. Helps hand wave the WIFOM away from WG case. Vote on Annorax good.
Post 329 - WG - Gives more than just simple dismissal of the WIFOM attacks against him. This answer I can accept. If the same WIFOM accusation was directed at me, this is probably the best answer I could get too. Especially since Polski didn't outline what caused his suspicion.
At this point I realize, things that can be taken as bussing Annorax, can really just be…Annorax was bad-posting like crazy. It really wouldn't be a stretch to assume townies could easily make the same casings, and not definitely call it distancing or bussing.
*Post 357 - WG - Admits to being worried about PB…then PB is the NK. Corrects and says no longer worried about PB. Claims PB as town in 368. Possibly to distance himself from the Night action?
Post 379 - WG - Defends Nyxu twice in the same post. "replace Nyxu with Annorax" in scum team list. Also, doesn't think he's scum, but admits he was lurking and no further defense. Claims he will be worried about Nyxu if he continues to lurk...but not now. Possible indication of Nyxu/WG.
Post 381 - WG - Defends Sixed. Doesn't think he is scum, but no reasons given. Why not just leave it at Null read? Why go so far as to say "not scum"? Another point for possible Nyxu/WG.
*Post 389 - WG - Not really understanding this. I actually do think what Annorax posted was a slip. Did then and still do now. What I don't get is could one way or another look better? He still calls for Annorax lynch, but would calling it a slip look bad on WG somehow?
Post 409 - Swishh - Vote on TK after TK contradicted himself. True, TK flipped town...but I think this was a good vote at the time.
Post 415 - WG - Continues the bus on Annorax, and ties TK, a townie, to Annorax. There were several examples of Annorax calling out townies. Could just be another attempt.
*Post 430 - WG - unless I am not understanding it correctly…this is actually the worst post I have seen WG make, and the most anti-town statement he made.
Thing is I really don't want more info in the thread before we have to on the small chance that TK is town.
@ the underlined: WTF? Wanting less info presented = Scum…right? Apparently at the time I didn't see it as suspicious, Post 437. So either I read it wrong the first time, was convinced WG was town, or I'm not reading it correctly now.
*Outside of hunting down interactions with WG (following up with my last few posts), posts 357/389/430 are the stand alone questionable posts that WG made.
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Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
D2 Interactions: Everyone note that this is finishing up the response to Incognito's question about alignments if we lynch WG today. I was specifically looking to see interactions with WG and if they could indicate alignment (according to the hypothetical lynching of WG).
Not sure if I made this point clear. What I was trying to get at is, I might have only found some of these interactions because I was specifically looking for interactions. Take with a grain of salt and do your own reading before you decide. If anything is out of context, bring it up.
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Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!! My Decks
Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
I try getting active and all of a sudden "bluhh bluhh bad posts"
I do not have valuable information or discovery to post. I have not found anything to jump on and rip open. Try as I might I just can't nab a solid read on anyone. Either I'm "Lurking" by not being very active while I try and keep up with this game, or I'm "Actively Lurking" by not having a color-coded list, in triplicate, turned in at the start of every week.
What I'm not seeing from you is scumhunting. DDS is doing it right: examining interactions, mindsets, opinion reversals, etc. Many of your posts--this one especially--just come off as posting air.
Quote from Nyxu »
Right now, hating Swishh. Not happy that I've been duct-taped to WG by DDS.
I feel like the goal of every Vanilla Townie is to be recognized as town and eat the nightkill.
Cannot barn this enough. Each Night as a vanilla townie should be spent hoping that they draw the nightkill because of how well they played the Day before. That's why I've come to view vanilla town as the role I value the most with regard to becoming a better player.
I don't have a lot of time right now for additional analysis, but at this point, I'm really just waiting for Wheat to get back from V/LA. It sounds like he's risen to the challenge, so I'm anticipating it even more. (Although it is my birthday, Wheat, so if you would rather just hoist the white flag and admit you're scum, I wouldn't be too disappointed. :drool:)
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
I'm really tired so I think I'mma go to bed early tonight and then I'll see what I need to do in this game tomorrow morning.
I see what you're trying to do there.
Your feigned nonchalance does not impress me, but then again, it's not for my benefit, is it? I tip my cap in acknowledgement...but you still need to get back here and post, especially with a deadline now established.
275: Unvotes. I feel like this is a fairly positive post, but I could be reading into mindset way too much.
283: Is in alignment w/meta. Can't get a read out of this one.
285: Reaffirms.
289: Upon me asking, offers reads and such. I can't get much out of this post.
291: He says that iRebel's "probably town" by virtue of not hammering himself, but then he says it's wine. He also says that he's going to be an active player in the game, which he isn't so far. He also hasn't given reads.
294: Rereads. Why does he only comment on iRebel being scum (not on any other player in the game)?
299: Votes iRebel.
305/306: Questions Wheat on his Annorax vote. The interesting thing about this is that he assumes that MTG~DDS would "flip town", which I guess if I reread it too far would mean that he already knows that MTG~DDS would flip town. +1 interaction to Wheat, if Wheat flips scum down the road.
330: Places more suspicion on Wheat. Distancing, or geniune curiosity? +1 interaction.
349: Not sure what to make of this post - proclaims that he hasn't developed "reads" on people. Though I find this post to be interesting - all of the people he's mentioned to be town/scum have flipped, and that "very, very likely to be scum" comment feels like distancing to me.
369: Active lurking.
393: More active lurking, and more bemoaning that he can't contribute content.
417: Post got eaten by iOS device, I presume? The ads are very annoying for me, as well. More active lurking, and he doesn't even try to recreate his post.
459: Votes Annorax, though I don't remember him showing any suspicion on Annorax prior to this. Scummy.
460: Broadcasts Annorax is L-2. Can't get any more mindset analysis out of this post.
469: More interaction of Wheat, but once again, can't get any reads out of this post.
474: Claims Hades, and popcorns to MTG~DDS. I wonder why?
485: Tries to attack Cantrip, and I can't get anything from the "reread" snip.
495: "pulling on loose strings" but I feel like he's just faking content at this point.
499: More poking and prodding.
511: This post reads as strange to me because I don't believe that Nyxu has mentioned me at all before this post. He's trying to... I don't know what is his mindset behind this post. More pulling on loose strings, perhaps?
513: Tries to invoke something about a town game, and bashes me on my color choice.
514: More ragging on "off" things.
520: He says that my behavior is manipulative due to color choice.
524: More bemoaning of lurking, even though the things that he says are "content" aren't really content, just pointing out things.
526: Responds to swishh's bashing of him.
565: Your posts are bad because I don't see any real scumhunting coming out of them. You're just pointing out things and calling them odd or scummy. You're OMGUSing swishh.
Conclusion: I feel like Nyxu is scummy - he's contributed stone-nothing this game, and tried to brush off pointing out odd things (such as "using my quote to add more weight" and "color coding reads" as scummy. Not to mention his Annorax vote is terrible because he's said zero on Annorax at that point.
I still want Wheat lynched because a lot of my reads on Nyxu are tied to my read on Wheat, but if Wheat flips scum I feel like Nyxu is our last scum.
EBWODP: He's also stated that he's reread the game multiple times, and he's just saying "The fates are conspiring to make me lurky this game" and "I can't get a read on anybody".
I'm really tired so I think I'mma go to bed early tonight and then I'll see what I need to do in this game tomorrow morning.
I see what you're trying to do there.
Your feigned nonchalance does not impress me, but then again, it's not for my benefit, is it? I tip my cap in acknowledgement...but you still need to get back here and post, especially with a deadline now established.
Why do you believe it's feigned?
I did plan on posting today but it did not work out as planned. I started reading through but then got hung up on playing games with friends. I will rectify this immediately.
Wheat seemed to make it a habit to prevent Annorax from claiming or being lynched.
Quotes please.
I'm not getting anything from Annorax's posts. Pretty much all the players he attacked or ID'd as scum have come up town, and he didn't do much in the way of buddying.
Does not mesh. You are good enough to come to the conclusion that Annorax was not attacking his buddies.
1. MRH put Lord at claim range (suspicious, but could be done by new town).
2. Annorax joined MRH on Lord's wagon (can't be held against MRH).
3. MRH unvoted Lord (ok).
Day 2
4. MRH voted Wheat after Annorax, using Polski-WIFOM as rationale (suspicious, but again, could be done by new town unfamiliar with the pitfalls of WIFOM).
5. MRH votes Pinky's Brain after TK, but with a whole bunch of reasoning and almost 50 posts (ok).
1. Yes, it could have been done by new town.
2. Why can't it be held against MRH? Interactions are everything and you KNOW this.
3. OK.
4. He was also the only one to follow Annorax there, doesn't that feel even slightly suspicious? Hell, even if your busing theory were correct, that would STILL be suspicious.
5. Eh, OK.
Basically, you "helped" by standardizing Incognito's vote count listing, didn't actually do any "analysis" beyond glancing at what could be interpreted as scummy patterns, and have now latched onto it as "proof" that MRH is scum. You're more experienced than this.
You missed the whole point of my argument. I say that you missed it on purpose, too.
There's a pattern that is EXTREMELY obvious (to me at least), where Annorax's wagon shows that the scum were not bussing. Period. It is reasonable to extend this assumption nearly across the board to confirm several players town: swishh and DDS, already having points in their favor, have that status solidified; Nyxu/Sixed gets some points from this (looking back at the votecounts and because of other work I'm doing in this post, I'm rewarming to the idea that Nyxu is town).
MRH is scum by POE. The scummy patterns were icing, and mere supports. If I was ever in doubt, I would do a serious case that took everything into account. As it is, the data speaks for itself.
The same, then, applies for you. I was in doubt about you, and so in this post I'm doing my case interspersed along with this response. But I've got the quotes that show you are not town.
Last but not least, you criticize me for not looking closer at the votecounts to see what was going on. You said this while you knew I was on V/LA. You spun expedience into malign intent, by taking my rationale to have come from only the one direction. I came to the conclusion from two angles at once.
You used this to chainsaw defend MRHBlue. This is made evident with how you don't even consider for a second MRH might be scum, even though his joining Annorax on my wagon points to his being scum by the busing argument.
---
Let us next roll into what I like to call the smug mudslinger portion of the proceedings. Some don't have direct links because I decided to tack this on after I had already set up quoting structure.
Quote from Cantripmancer 548 »
Mmm, being right feels good.
Smugness.
Quote from Cantripmancer 559 »
you have time to fabricate rationale for your actions.
(Although it is my birthday, Wheat, so if you would rather just hoist the white flag and admit you're scum, I wouldn't be too disappointed. :drool:)
Both at once.
Quote from Cantripmancer 585 »
I see what you're trying to do there.
Your feigned nonchalance does not impress me, but then again, it's not for my benefit, is it? I tip my cap in acknowledgement...but you still need to get back here and post, especially with a deadline now established.
Both again.
Town doesn't get smug like this for someone just ignoring them. Mostly they get a little peeved because their trying to judge the reactions.
But not Cantripmancer. He's getting smug, because he knows he's got something on me that looks good as a case, while being complete and utter horse poop when it comes to determining alignment. He follows this up with mudslinging to reinforce the idea that I'm scum, that I have to "fabricate" rationale, that my nonchalance is "feigned".
He's trying to discredit me in the hopes that everyone thinks that I was playing scummy, and therefore my reasoning cannot be correct, even when I flip town.
I am now fine with any series of events ending with Cantripmancer, MRHBlue, and myself being dead. I will push any of the three.
I can see that due to paranoia it may very well take me being dead to prove the pattern, and we have a mislynch left. I'll sacrifice myself for the sake of proving the pattern.
EBWODP: He's also stated that he's reread the game multiple times, and he's just saying "The fates are conspiring to make me lurky this game" and "I can't get a read on anybody".
Apparently every other game I've played in I've gotten lucky and found something to do. That or being a pr fundamentally changes how I play. This game has proven time and again difficult to read and yes I've grasped at things that made little sense. This said in vanilla mafia I grasped at lurk tactics in xyre who at the end was scum (I think I did this to DRey as well in haruhi). I asked questions about off behaviour, albeit minor, because minor tics are what come through as scum.
You ask why I popcorned dds, who should I have selected? Would you have placed scrutiny had I popcorned anyone else?
Your feigned nonchalance does not impress me, but then again, it's not for my benefit, is it? I tip my cap in acknowledgement...but you still need to get back here and post, especially with a deadline now established.
Why do you believe it's feigned?
Because I believe you're caught, and trying to project a veneer of casual calm, which you think will come off townier. On the other hand, I feel like you made it obvious, posting that "I'mma going to bed rather than respond". (You said you couldn't post until Sunday, but posted that on Saturday...just to point out that even though you were around to post, you chose to wait until today to do so.)
Wheat seemed to make it a habit to prevent Annorax from claiming or being lynched.
Quotes please.
In 145, Trabant brought Annorax to L-2. In 154, you compared the two quickwagons, noted the pattern (heh) of Trabant being on both of them, and unvoted Annorax to vote Trabant, despite your vote on Annorax in 140 seeming serious. If that was a serious vote for something you thought was scummy, why not let Annorax respond before shifting the wagon to Trabant?
In 190, right after Polski comes in and says Annorax is the best bet for scum, you say that you "don't feel super good about Annorax being scum anymore". Polski agrees, and then Swishh unvotes Annorax, effectively ending the wagon on Annorax for the day.
Both are scummy, but one (TK) I'm more sure of. I have this bad gut feeling on Annorax ending up like iRebel, but I'm still willing to lynch him.
I feel good about both of them, so I'm willing to move my vote as necessary.
You're ready to get off the Annorax wagon anytime the town thinks you should.
Quote from Wheat »
I'm not getting anything from Annorax's posts. Pretty much all the players he attacked or ID'd as scum have come up town, and he didn't do much in the way of buddying.
Does not mesh. You are good enough to come to the conclusion that Annorax was not attacking his buddies.
I wasn't getting anything usable because all of his targets were dead. And I thought "Annorax was not attacking his buddies" was contained in "pretty much all the players he attacked or ID'd as scum have come up town".
1. MRH put Lord at claim range (suspicious, but could be done by new town).
2. Annorax joined MRH on Lord's wagon (can't be held against MRH).
3. MRH unvoted Lord (ok).
Day 2
4. MRH voted Wheat after Annorax, using Polski-WIFOM as rationale (suspicious, but again, could be done by new town unfamiliar with the pitfalls of WIFOM).
5. MRH votes Pinky's Brain after TK, but with a whole bunch of reasoning and almost 50 posts (ok).
1. Yes, it could have been done by new town.
2. Why can't it be held against MRH? Interactions are everything and you KNOW this.
Explain how Annorax following MRH onto a townie's wagon makes MRH more likely to be scum.
Quote from Wheat »
4. He was also the only one to follow Annorax there, doesn't that feel even slightly suspicious? Hell, even if your busing theory were correct, that would STILL be suspicious.
Ok, first, I said it was suspicious; don't try to imply that I didn't. Second, it would feel more suspicious if MRH were experienced. As it is, I'm having a hard time seeing that it was an intentional, calculated double-attack (or double-bus) rather than the more-likely: a newer player bulldog-latching onto something an experienced player (Polski) asserted.
Quote from Wheat »
5. Eh, OK.
What do you mean "Eh, OK."? That was a big part of your incontrovertible "data" ("Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly." More on that later.)
Quote from Wheat »
Basically, you "helped" by standardizing Incognito's vote count listing, didn't actually do any "analysis" beyond glancing at what could be interpreted as scummy patterns, and have now latched onto it as "proof" that MRH is scum. You're more experienced than this.
You missed the whole point of my argument. I say that you missed it on purpose, too.
There's a pattern that is EXTREMELY obvious (to me at least), where Annorax's wagon shows that the scum were not bussing. Period.
How convenient that this assertion is based on you being town. WE don't know that the scum were not bussing; if you and Nyxu are the remaining scum, then the scum certainly were bussing. You pre-emptively, and Nyxu because he read the writing on the wall. (And note that Annorax tried miserably to smear Pinky by calling her vote a bussing attempt, so Annorax was certainly familiar with the idea.)
Quote from Wheat »
It is reasonable to extend this assumption nearly across the board to confirm several players town: swishh and DDS, already having points in their favor, have that status solidified; Nyxu/Sixed gets some points from this (looking back at the votecounts and because of other work I'm doing in this post, I'm rewarming to the idea that Nyxu is town).
Since you don't know Nyxu's or Swishh's alignments (right? ;)), why would you make that assumption?
Quote from Wheat »
MRH is scum by POE. The scummy patterns were icing, and mere supports. If I was ever in doubt, I would do a serious case that took everything into account. As it is, the data speaks for itself.
Ok, let's look back at this data. First, recall that I asked you for specifics:
@DDS: The evidence points to the scum not voting each other. This confirms MRH as scum, and strongly points to Cantripmancer. However, I am noticing upon looking at it again, that Nyxu voted scum, but the scum didn't vote him; therefore, he's probably the third scum if Cantrip is not.
I'm absolutely certain of MRH though. The data points too strongly to it.
FTR, will you specify/summarize which data you refer to that make you so certain?
Posts 516 and 517
I cede that your specific assertion in that first nested quote was "The evidence points to the scum not voting each other." And yes, I missed that that was your baseline, because when I went to 516 and 517, the first was just you re-coloring Incognito's listing of the votecounts, and the second was this:
First of all, there are never two scumteams in a basic ever. They are pretty much out even from Normals these days; though I think there's still some discussion on that.
I agree with the analysis of swishh; him being town is well-supported by him being on the wagon.
@Incognito: Why do you believe there has to be a scum on every wagon?
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
The Annorax wagon is very town-dominated. The only person on the wagon who might not be town is Nyxu. This tells me the scum are not very bussy. I then see Sixed as the only player to jump on MRHBlue, and can't help but feel that makes Nyxu (r. Sixed) very likely town.
I see also that Magenta never once voted. Ever. This makes me think Cantripmancer (r. Magenta) is scum.
DDS was voted by Annorax so he's likely town.
tl;dr: Cantripmancer and MRHblue are almost certainly the last two scum
Vote: MRHblue
Your assertion in 534 was that you were "certain" MRH was scum. That certainty felt a little off, so I was researching that, and the part relating to MRH was:
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
This entire paragraph uses statistics and patterns to establish MRH as scum. "Voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts". "More than any other player." "Sheeping TK." "Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly."
Now, maybe you're no expert at votecount analysis, but you've been around long enough to know that you can't just look at a list of VCs and tally them up on your fingers. MRH didn't vote "4 out of 9" with Annorax; he voted a player Annorax was voting once and Annorax voted a player MRH was voting once. MRH didn't "sheep" TK "every time". He voted the same as TK twice, once with two players in-between and once with a mess of content in-between.
Let's also note the use of the word "data", as in statistics, numbers, facts. Annorax's wagon, with three unknown players on it, cannot factually support your assumption that the scum are not bussing this game, therefore, that can't be what you're highlighting as "data". The numbers and statistics that you spout about MRH, on the other hand, fit that definition.
All the elements that I saw as being used by you as "data" to be "certain" that MRH was scum were patently false.
Quote from Wheat »
Last but not least, you criticize me for not looking closer at the votecounts to see what was going on. You said this while you knew I was on V/LA.
If you weren't using the "data" I've demolished above to vote MRH right before you went V/LA on a day that only takes 4 to lynch, then I feel you were risking an awful lot on your gut feeling that "the scum aren't bussing this game".
Quote from Wheat »
You spun expedience into malign intent, by taking my rationale to have come from only the one direction. I came to the conclusion from two angles at once.
See above. If you didn't do the research, you shouldn't be using it to guide your vote (and I don't feel like your "other" angle was legitimate).
Quote from Wheat »
You used this to chainsaw defend MRHBlue. This is made evident with how you don't even consider for a second MRH might be scum, even though his joining Annorax on my wagon points to his being scum by the busing argument.
Pointing out as false a focused part of a post you said contained "data" that a player was scum is not a chainsaw defense of that player. And no, I would be surprised to see both scum bussing like that, without crowd cover from other townies. Finding that you fabricated data to accuse MRH pretty much eliminated MRH as scum in my mind.
Quote from Wheat »
Quote from Cantripmancer 548 »
Mmm, being right feels good.
Smugness.
Guilty. I rarely get the chance to be this right. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow for it, but if I'm right, I'll be intolerable for the next 2-3 games.
Quote from Wheat »
Quote from Cantripmancer 559 »
you have time to fabricate rationale for your actions.
Mudslinging.
Again, pretty much guilty. I knew you said you wouldn't have a chance til Sunday, but you posted, so I couldn't resist the dig. How, though, does this make me scum?
(Although it is my birthday, Wheat, so if you would rather just hoist the white flag and admit you're scum, I wouldn't be too disappointed. :drool:)
Both at once.
Here I disagree. Smug, yes, but I've already called you scum multiple times; where's the mudslinging? (And it really was my birthday, and it really would have been a nice gift if you had spared me this additional repartee, regardless of how invigorating it is.)
Quote from Wheat »
Quote from Cantripmancer 585 »
I see what you're trying to do there.
Your feigned nonchalance does not impress me, but then again, it's not for my benefit, is it? I tip my cap in acknowledgement...but you still need to get back here and post, especially with a deadline now established.
Both again.
Again, accept the smug-label, but disagree on the mudsling. I suspect you of doing the emotional equivalent of hand-waving my argument: "What you're asserting is so laughable that it bothers me not a bit; I'm going to go sleep the sleep of the innocent."
Quote from Wheat »
Town doesn't get smug like this for someone just ignoring them. Mostly they get a little peeved because their trying to judge the reactions.
Wait, what? Did you just admit that you were ignoring me and not V/LA? Because I wasn't getting peeved because you said you were V/LA.
Quote from Wheat »
But not Cantripmancer. He's getting smug, because he knows he's got something on me that looks good as a case, while being complete and utter horse poop when it comes to determining alignment. He follows this up with mudslinging to reinforce the idea that I'm scum, that I have to "fabricate" rationale, that my nonchalance is "feigned".
He's trying to discredit me in the hopes that everyone thinks that I was playing scummy, and therefore my reasoning cannot be correct, even when I flip town.
I'm smug because I know I have something on you that shows that you strongly asserted another player as scum based on a pack of lies. I feel completely comfortable believing that I know your alignment based on this.
Quote from Wheat »
I am now fine with any series of events ending with Cantripmancer, MRHBlue, and myself being dead. I will push any of the three.
I can see that due to paranoia it may very well take me being dead to prove the pattern, and we have a mislynch left. I'll sacrifice myself for the sake of proving the pattern.
Hmm, let's see if this holds up: I was so concerned about you going after my scumbuddy, MRH, that I devised this attack and pursued it so vehemently that when you flip town, not only is a crapsack-ton of suspicion going to be directed at me, but then also right back at MRH? Mmm, I don't think so.
I'm not fine with any series of events ending with myself or MRH being dead; Wheat is scum and needs to be lynched.
EWP: @Nyxu: Please weigh in on Wheat. I get that you're under attack, too, but you're not commenting on Wheat at all (other than incorrectly implying that you've been duct-taped to him).
Theres implying and there's explicitly stating. I get the feeling that there exists a link between me and wg in this game state that should not be.
"you can be reconstructed by the hole you left"
I suggest everyone look at annorax interactions. He only ever called out town names, and oddly enough pb was chosen as the nk after annorax called her out in a last ditch sling.
Was annorax directing the kill or was the play an attempt to establish a pattern of annorax attacking only town (smoke screening a scum he feigned an attack on early on)
Wheats three person list is interesting. I would insist that if we play his game, he dies second- though at the same time the linking of myself and wheat means that the only way I could force scum!wheat to trade one for one (conventional knowledge: scum loses on trades) is to have him die first, he flips scum, the "if wheat is scum so is Nyx" team strings me up, etc.
My gut says swish is less involved than could be.
Not to mention his.... Unpleasant behaviour earlier towards me.
You ask why I popcorned dds, who should I have selected? Would you have placed scrutiny had I popcorned anyone else?
I agree that my question about popcorning is nitpicky and was most likely made with a couple second's thought.
Explain the Annorax vote, then. Not to mention that swishh has been one of the most pro town players Day 1 and Day 2 (either that or he's /excellent/ at bussing)
The thing that drives me crazy is that, even though I find Nyxu to be scummy, we can't lynch him. We have to lynch one of the Cantrip/Wheat dichotomy and move from there. It's very frustrating when there are fewer mislynches baked into the game.
@MTG~DDS, swishh: Do you think that there could be a Nyxu/MRHBlue scumteam? I want this dichotomy to be resolved with a scumlynch, and both Cantrip and Wheat flipping town equals an instant loss to the game.
It comes down to brain vs. gut, for me.
Wheat is probably the more likely scum based on Annorax interactions. The D2 bus, and the concerted effort to lynch Trabant777/iRebel.
But my gut is still ringing alarm bells on Cantripmancer. It's saying that Cantripmancer is too bloodthirsty/overconfident, and that he just /feels/ just scum. Those smileys just seem off to me, I guess.
Ugh. I'll think about this more before we decide the Day.
@MTG~DDS, swishh: Do you think that there could be a Nyxu/MRHBlue scumteam? I want this dichotomy to be resolved with a scumlynch, and both Cantrip and Wheat flipping town equals an instant loss to the game.
"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both..." One of the two, PoE says, is correct. One of the two is obviously incorrect. WG and Cantrip seem to be two completely separate camps. Both will give us information with flips. Cantrip may just be an excellent wordsmith, but his case and counter-rebuttal look better to me at this point. Strongest case is against WG. I think our best course today is WG. If he flips town, Cantrip/MRH look bad. Scum flip my best bet is Nyxu, mainly PoE though.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
@Incognito: It all comes back to the lack of bussing: Sixed jumped on MRH, and Nyxu jumped on Annorax.
Quote from Cantripmancer 591 »
Because I believe you're caught, and trying to project a veneer of casual calm, which you think will come off townier. On the other hand, I feel like you made it obvious, posting that "I'mma going to bed rather than respond". (You said you couldn't post until Sunday, but posted that on Saturday...just to point out that even though you were around to post, you chose to wait until today to do so.)
I'm trying to leave emotion behind, and use logic.
As to the time differences, it's because of two things: First, the days were in flux because I have to catch up in four different games, and second, I didn't want to post while tired. I'm sure you can see why I wouldn't.
You make a statement without making a commitment. Especially in response to a direct question, that's bad.
I have nothing to argue back against this.
In 145, Trabant brought Annorax to L-2. In 154, you compared the two quickwagons, noted the pattern (heh) of Trabant being on both of them, and unvoted Annorax to vote Trabant, despite your vote on Annorax in 140 seeming serious. If that was a serious vote for something you thought was scummy, why not let Annorax respond before shifting the wagon to Trabant?
Explain to me how this comes from a scum alignment when I stopped the quickwagon on town right before.
In 190, right after Polski comes in and says Annorax is the best bet for scum, you say that you "don't feel super good about Annorax being scum anymore". Polski agrees, and then Swishh unvotes Annorax, effectively ending the wagon on Annorax for the day.
This one I concede.
You're ready to get off the Annorax wagon anytime the town thinks you should.
Such spin. I was trying to get either of the two I felt were scum lynched.
I wasn't getting anything usable because all of his targets were dead. And I thought "Annorax was not attacking his buddies" was contained in "pretty much all the players he attacked or ID'd as scum have come up town".
Hello, he had targets who did not flip. You are willfully ignoring this.
Explain how Annorax following MRH onto a townie's wagon makes MRH more likely to be scum.
Looking again I see that I don't really have a point there. Conceded.
Ok, first, I said it was suspicious; don't try to imply that I didn't. Second, it would feel more suspicious if MRH were experienced. As it is, I'm having a hard time seeing that it was an intentional, calculated double-attack (or double-bus) rather than the more-likely: a newer player bulldog-latching onto something an experienced player (Polski) asserted.
What do you mean "Eh, OK."? That was a big part of your incontrovertible "data" ("Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly." More on that later.)
I was proven incorrect there, it was still the smaller part of my reasoning.
How convenient that this assertion is based on you being town.
Hence why I'm okay with being lynched; it proves the pattern and wins the game.
Now, maybe you're no expert at votecount analysis, but you've been around long enough to know that you can't just look at a list of VCs and tally them up on your fingers.
Dude, I just explained why I couldn't look more closely at the votecounts.
Let's also note the use of the word "data", as in statistics, numbers, facts. Annorax's wagon, with three unknown players on it, cannot factually support your assumption that the scum are not bussing this game, therefore, that can't be what you're highlighting as "data". The numbers and statistics that you spout about MRH, on the other hand, fit that definition.
All the elements that I saw as being used by you as "data" to be "certain" that MRH was scum were patently false.
I misspoke then, analysis of the data speaks for itself. Why do you keep harping on that single word, by the way?
Evidence pointed to swishh and DDS being town. Using this, it strongly pointed to a lack of busing.
Facts, no. Logical extrapolation, yes.
If you weren't using the "data" I've demolished above to vote MRH right before you went V/LA on a day that only takes 4 to lynch, then I feel you were risking an awful lot on your gut feeling that "the scum aren't bussing this game".
It is not a gut feeling. Such misrepresentation. You also misrepresent your "demolishment" as stronger than it was.
See above. If you didn't do the research, you shouldn't be using it to guide your vote (and I don't feel like your "other" angle was legitimate).
The other angle was sufficient to guide my vote.
Pointing out as false a focused part of a post you said contained "data" that a player was scum is not a chainsaw defense of that player. And no, I would be surprised to see both scum bussing like that, without crowd cover from other townies. Finding that you fabricated data to accuse MRH pretty much eliminated MRH as scum in my mind.
You are going to squeeze every last drop from that word aren't you.
Also, this is all fixed by me flipping town.
Guilty. I rarely get the chance to be this right. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow for it, but if I'm right, I'll be intolerable for the next 2-3 games.
Get ready to eat crow.
Again, pretty much guilty. I knew you said you wouldn't have a chance til Sunday, but you posted, so I couldn't resist the dig. How, though, does this make me scum?
Mudslinging is not legitimate reasoning; it's painting the picture of scum rather than illuminating the reality of the situation.
Here I disagree. Smug, yes, but I've already called you scum multiple times; where's the mudslinging? (And it really was my birthday, and it really would have been a nice gift if you had spared me this additional repartee, regardless of how invigorating it is.)
True, you had already called me scum, but the way of it feels subtly of mudslinging to me.
Again, accept the smug-label, but disagree on the mudsling. I suspect you of doing the emotional equivalent of hand-waving my argument: "What you're asserting is so laughable that it bothers me not a bit; I'm going to go sleep the sleep of the innocent."
Dude, this is a game of mafia. Why do you think I am losing sleep over this no matter what my alignment is?
"Feigning" was the mudsling.
Wait, what? Did you just admit that you were ignoring me and not V/LA? Because I wasn't getting peeved because you said you were V/LA.
V/LA caused me to ignore you. I didn't have time to respond decently.
I'm smug because I know I have something on you that shows that you strongly asserted another player as scum based on a pack of lies. I feel completely comfortable believing that I know your alignment based on this.
Funny, I was just thinking the same about you.
Hmm, let's see if this holds up: I was so concerned about you going after my scumbuddy, MRH, that I devised this attack and pursued it so vehemently that when you flip town, not only is a crapsack-ton of suspicion going to be directed at me, but then also right back at MRH? Mmm, I don't think so.
@MTG~DDS, swishh: Do you think that there could be a Nyxu/MRHBlue scumteam?
Not sure if I answered this.
I don't really see MRH/Nyxu scum team. Either could be, but I doubt together. Cantrip is defending MRH pretty hard and WG has defended Nyxu/Sixed throughout the game. I did not find any significant connection between the two individually. Cantrip/WG is the elephant in the room. It is hard to see past them. Only way I could see MRH/Nyxu is if WG flips town. However, if that happens, it will be difficult not to tunnel on Cantrip. Did you see connections I missed?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!! My Decks
Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
@WG: Who are you calling scumteam? If we progress to lynch you, and you flip town...who do you think we should lynch and why? Not sure if additional back and forths with Cantrip are helpful beyond what we already have. Are you convinced of MRH and Cantrip? Give us as much as you can.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!! My Decks
Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
@WG: Who are you calling scumteam? If we progress to lynch you, and you flip town...who do you think we should lynch and why? Not sure if additional back and forths with Cantrip are helpful beyond what we already have. Are you convinced of MRH and Cantrip? Give us as much as you can.
MRH and Cantripmancer are definitely the scum for reasons already outlined over and over again.
But my gut is still ringing alarm bells on Cantripmancer. It's saying that Cantripmancer is too bloodthirsty/overconfident, and that he just /feels/ just scum. Those smileys just seem off to me, I guess.
FWIW, I'm too cautious as scum to ever come off as bloodthirsty/overconfident except when I'm bussing. Not that this helps you with your dilemma, but just saying.
@Incognito: It all comes back to the lack of bussing: Sixed jumped on MRH, and Nyxu jumped on Annorax.
I still don't see why this is such a strong point for you.
Quote from Wheat »
Quote from Cantripmancer 591 »
Because I believe you're caught, and trying to project a veneer of casual calm, which you think will come off townier. On the other hand, I feel like you made it obvious, posting that "I'mma going to bed rather than respond". (You said you couldn't post until Sunday, but posted that on Saturday...just to point out that even though you were around to post, you chose to wait until today to do so.)
I'm trying to leave emotion behind, and use logic.
As to the time differences, it's because of two things: First, the days were in flux because I have to catch up in four different games, and second, I didn't want to post while tired. I'm sure you can see why I wouldn't.
I have no problem with you taking your time catching up. You had already confirmed you were waiting until Sunday to post; why did you feel the need to post the "I'mma going to bed" post?
Quote from Wheat »
In 145, Trabant brought Annorax to L-2. In 154, you compared the two quickwagons, noted the pattern (heh) of Trabant being on both of them, and unvoted Annorax to vote Trabant, despite your vote on Annorax in 140 seeming serious. If that was a serious vote for something you thought was scummy, why not let Annorax respond before shifting the wagon to Trabant?
Explain to me how this comes from a scum alignment when I stopped the quickwagon on town right before.
You weren't on the town quickwagon right before; you were on Annorax's, with a legitimate reason that wasn't addressed before you unvoted.
Quote from Wheat »
You're ready to get off the Annorax wagon anytime the town thinks you should.
Such spin. I was trying to get either of the two I felt were scum lynched.
Both are scummy, but one (TK) I'm more sure of. I have this bad gut feeling on Annorax ending up like iRebel, but I'm still willing to lynch him.
I feel good about both of them, so I'm willing to move my vote as necessary.
...and see you taking an opportunity to further Incognito's suggestion and avoid the wagon on your buddy.
Quote from Wheat »
I wasn't getting anything usable because all of his targets were dead. And I thought "Annorax was not attacking his buddies" was contained in "pretty much all the players he attacked or ID'd as scum have come up town".
Hello, he had targets who did not flip. You are willfully ignoring this.
He had a few attacks on DDS D1 (before Annorax came under scrutiny), which is one of the reasons I think DDS is town. He had one(?) attack on swishh? If there were more, please point them out to me and I'll reexamine my beliefs, but even so, what's your point?
Quote from Wheat »
Ok, first, I said it was suspicious; don't try to imply that I didn't. Second, it would feel more suspicious if MRH were experienced. As it is, I'm having a hard time seeing that it was an intentional, calculated double-attack (or double-bus) rather than the more-likely: a newer player bulldog-latching onto something an experienced player (Polski) asserted.
I'm going to have to ask you to put words there, because I'm not entirely sure that I know what that smily's supposed to convey.
Quote from Wheat »
How convenient that this assertion is based on you being town.
Hence why I'm okay with being lynched; it proves the pattern and wins the game.
Even if you're town, I don't see how it proves the pattern. You can't just assume that every scum is going to avoid attacking his buddies all the way through the game. Not only is it an illogical assumption, but you're only basing it off of one dead scum.
Quote from Wheat »
Now, maybe you're no expert at votecount analysis, but you've been around long enough to know that you can't just look at a list of VCs and tally them up on your fingers.
Dude, I just explained why I couldn't look more closely at the votecounts.
Ok, so you didn't have time. Here's the questionable portion of that post again:
Looking at the votecounts, we see MRHBlue voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts, more than any other player. I also see him sheeping TK for some reason. Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly. I find that highly suspicious.
Explain why you would post those specifics if you hadn't examined the votecounts enough to make assertions like that.
Quote from Wheat »
Let's also note the use of the word "data", as in statistics, numbers, facts. Annorax's wagon, with three unknown players on it, cannot factually support your assumption that the scum are not bussing this game, therefore, that can't be what you're highlighting as "data". The numbers and statistics that you spout about MRH, on the other hand, fit that definition.
All the elements that I saw as being used by you as "data" to be "certain" that MRH was scum were patently false.
I misspoke then, analysis of the data speaks for itself. Why do you keep harping on that single word, by the way?
Because you used it to sound scientific, which is an attempt to sound logical, which is an attempt to sound town.
Quote from Wheat »
Evidence pointed to swishh and DDS being town. Using this, it strongly pointed to a lack of busing.
Facts, no. Logical extrapolation, yes.
See above. Logical extrapolation based on one scum's actions and the liklihood of unknown players being town isn't that logical.
Quote from Wheat »
If you weren't using the "data" I've demolished above to vote MRH right before you went V/LA on a day that only takes 4 to lynch, then I feel you were risking an awful lot on your gut feeling that "the scum aren't bussing this game".
It is not a gut feeling. Such misrepresentation. You also misrepresent your "demolishment" as stronger than it was.
How is it not a gut feeling? How does "one scum didn't attack any known scum" equate to "the scumteam isn't bussing this game"? And note that you've pointed out that there were players Annorax attacked that are unknown in alignment to us.
Quote from Wheat »
Guilty. I rarely get the chance to be this right. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow for it, but if I'm right, I'll be intolerable for the next 2-3 games.
Get ready to eat crow.
I will be pretty sad if this is a town-vs-town bloodbath, but I still feel pretty good about this.
Quote from Wheat »
Again, pretty much guilty. I knew you said you wouldn't have a chance til Sunday, but you posted, so I couldn't resist the dig. How, though, does this make me scum?
Mudslinging is not legitimate reasoning; it's painting the picture of scum rather than illuminating the reality of the situation.
Fair enough.
Quote from Wheat »
Again, accept the smug-label, but disagree on the mudsling. I suspect you of doing the emotional equivalent of hand-waving my argument: "What you're asserting is so laughable that it bothers me not a bit; I'm going to go sleep the sleep of the innocent."
Dude, this is a game of mafia. Why do you think I am losing sleep over this no matter what my alignment is?
You wouldn't be the first. One of my recent games included a conversation about a player being more or less likely to be scum based on thinking about the game in the shower. And you don't have to really lose sleep to plant that idea in the minds of the readers; the result is the same: "It's no big deal because I know I'm town, so downplay, downplay, downplay."
Quote from Wheat »
"Feigning" was the mudsling.
But I really believe you're feigning; how is that a mudsling?
Quote from Wheat »
Wait, what? Did you just admit that you were ignoring me and not V/LA? Because I wasn't getting peeved because you said you were V/LA.
V/LA caused me to ignore you. I didn't have time to respond decently.
So I'm scum because I didn't get annoyed that you didn't post when you said you weren't going to post?
Quote from Wheat »
Hmm, let's see if this holds up: I was so concerned about you going after my scumbuddy, MRH, that I devised this attack and pursued it so vehemently that when you flip town, not only is a crapsack-ton of suspicion going to be directed at me, but then also right back at MRH? Mmm, I don't think so.
Exactly the argument you'll make if I'm lynched.
Yeah, unfortunately, I feel like I'm in a little too deep to avoid being lynched if you come up town. Incognito's already feeling peeps out on that. Just flip scum, please.
I'm going to start trimming this back and forth down to the bits that aren't just going to be "yeah huh" "nuh uh"
I have no problem with you taking your time catching up. You had already confirmed you were waiting until Sunday to post; why did you feel the need to post the "I'mma going to bed" post?
I couldn't remember what days I promised content in which games. I was planning on making the post Saturday because you wanted content from me so badly.
You weren't on the town quickwagon right before; you were on Annorax's, with a legitimate reason that wasn't addressed before you unvoted.
That doesn't explain why me stopping Annorax's wagon right after stopping a town wagon makes me scum.
He had a few attacks on DDS D1 (before Annorax came under scrutiny), which is one of the reasons I think DDS is town. He had one(?) attack on swishh? If there were more, please point them out to me and I'll reexamine my beliefs, but even so, what's your point?
He attacked me. It's in the votecount even.
My point is that you are going out of your way NOT to analyze.
I'm going to have to ask you to put words there, because I'm not entirely sure that I know what that smily's supposed to convey.[quote]
It shows my general displeasure with your statement.
How about this, what if I'm town? What does that mean for MRH joining Annorax on me?
[quote]Even if you're town, I don't see how it proves the pattern. You can't just assume that every scum is going to avoid attacking his buddies all the way through the game. Not only is it an illogical assumption, but you're only basing it off of one dead scum.
I usually don't. It's just so blatantly obvious that they haven't been busing, a position supported by the scum team being new to the game, or else not playing often in the case of Annorax.
Explain why you would post those specifics if you hadn't examined the votecounts enough to make assertions like that.
I meant I didn't look closely at the votecounts as in I didn't look at the vote histories in between each votecount; I only went through quickly for statistics. It doesn't take long to see that MRH and Annorax voted together often, and that MRH voted with TK even more often.
How does "one scum didn't attack any known scum" equate to "the scumteam isn't bussing this game"?
It eliminates all the possibilities except for three people if you take Annorax's history alone. If you look at those three, Nyxu is less likely to be a scummate with you or with MRH than you are with MRH.
You wouldn't be the first. One of my recent games included a conversation about a player being more or less likely to be scum based on thinking about the game in the shower. And you don't have to really lose sleep to plant that idea in the minds of the readers; the result is the same: "It's no big deal because I know I'm town, so downplay, downplay, downplay."
I think you actually feel seriously about this one, so I'll just say that you are way overthinking this.
But I really believe you're feigning; how is that a mudsling?
Eh, I'll concede it because there's no real point; it's all semantics anyway.
So I'm scum because I didn't get annoyed that you didn't post when you said you weren't going to post?
I totally lost the thread of this particular conversation and I'm about to be drawn back into a game with friends again so I can't check what the thread is.
So I'm suspect if wheat flips town, and suspect if he flips scum?
In before wheat is neutral survivor because Odds don't add up
Vote Nyxu
Really? That's what pushes you over the edge?
That is what gets you to go from "We need to focus on the WG/Cantrip dichotomy" to outright voting me?
Play the gamestate. Between WG and Cantrip you believe there to be one scum. If you're right on that then the best play, and I mean the -best- one, is to hunt the scum out of the pair and -then- go after me. Call it fearmongering or whatever but it's what you've said yourself. We cant afford the needless mislynch.
Yeah, I'm loathe to admit this but I think that Wheat might be our best bet toDay. I do admit that if he flips scum he has played a good game.
The main thing that bugged me when I read your post was Nyxu. The fact that he's "eh" both if Wheat flips town and/or scum rings alarm bells to me. I want to hear more from Nyxu before we lynch Wheat - he's just active lurking at this point, but we all can't get a read on him. Ugh.
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The orange is your attempt at a disclaimer for why you're making questionable choices. As Incognito pointed out, the red does not jive with your initial vote.
Thanks. When I originally asked that question, I was more interested in MRH's response, but it's good to have a baseline for you, too.
With each successive post you make without rebuttal, the better I feel. But maybe you're just really busy (as your V/LA indicates), so I have no problem waiting to lynch you until you have time to fabricate rationale for your actions.
FTFY (sorry, couldn't resist; that's what I heard when I read your sentence).
Was the bolded saying you'd post more on this later in the same post (in which case, I don't see it), or that you'd post more on this in a later post?
Is the * next to Incognito because of his prod or is it related to the double ** after him? If not, is the double ** supposed to refer back to something in your post (as asterisks often do)?
Yeah, if Wheat flips town, it won't reflect well on me, especially if Blue later comes up scum...but I'm feeling pretty good about Wheat's silence.
You want it, you got it baby. It's gonna wait until after finals but it's gonna come.
In a later post not later in that one. My notes were not sufficient to make solid claims about his interactions. Some coming in this post.
It was related to the prod. I copied the list from opening page to not miss anyone. Double asterisk (and maybe triple later on) was just me denoting my summary of that section. Sorry for the confusion.
Follow up on a couple things.
Post 36: The post that I took fire for on day 1. I was scrutinized for not knowing 9-3 setup. I concede that it is general knowledge, and I probably should have known it. Not arguing either way about that.
Post 28 previous to that post:
Swishh either didn't know that fact either, or he was mudslinging. WG didn't call that post out. Maybe my wording was stronger, but they both have the same implications. Did both not merit a label of mudslinging from WG? The only other difference I see is that Sixed ignored Swishh, whereas LMCD reacted to my comment.
Post 42: Trabant's post implies that he also, wasn't sure about the numbers.
Post 48: Swishh reinforces that he didn't know setup numbers. This post linked post 42 above.
The point for posting the above:
It wasn't until post 50 that WG called me out for mudslinging. 2 other players already posting thoughts close to mine, but I was the only one he called out. I don't really think that shows anything about Swishh's alignment, but it was the first time in my notes I had suspicion on WG. Also, could show WG giving Swishh a slide on something he was calling me out for. 1st minor indicator of possible WG/Swishh being buddies?
Swishh post 79: He called out WG on several inconsistencies. This post (if WG scum) could be an early beginning to bussing, but I'm not sold on that. This gives points to Swishh and WG either not teammates or bussing early. Swishh/WG team not an impossibility, but I don't see the advantage to starting bus job this early. Someone with more experience feel free to correct my statement, if I'm wrong. Coupled with previous post 50 analysis it looks a little worse, but not a whole lot.
Post 86: I think someone referenced part of this one earlier. Swishh's prior post was his scum rainbow. At the bottom says "will gladly explain." WG questions, Swishh follows up with, "I'm not that 'sure'." That does look awkward, but going back to interactions, doesn't lend to WG/Swishh team unless this was planned early on. Post 101, Swishh did follow up with reasonings. So some of the weird points he earned with the slight contradiction dissipate a bit. Although his latest posts have had similar minor contradictions in them.
Post 134: Swishh calling out Sixed for naked vote and dodging questions. Interactions with Sixed, now Nyxu. Sixed calls Swishh scum, votes him, and gives no reasoning. Sixed was pretty inactive, and Swishh calls him for bad vote(well, naked vote). If they were teammates, this interaction seems way to early and unnecessary. Neither of them were under much pressure. This series gives points against Swishh/Nyxu team.
Post 139: good vote by Swishh following a bad post by Annorax. Only thing is, this is the first point in the game where it would make sense to me to begin bussing. Annorax would definitely appear to be a liability at this point. Not calling Swishh scum for this as hard fact(because that could also be a good town vote), but at this point I don't think it actually goes against the possibility of a Swishh/Annorax team.
These were some of the D1 things I alluded to in my previous post. The interactions Swishh has with WG to this point are either very positive for Swishh, or show early orchestration. Not sure of which. Also as a note, to this point in D1, Swishh was leaning heavily town for me. WG stopping the runaway LMCD wagon and LMCDs (PBs) eventual flip took away some of the suspicions I had on WG. It was definitely a pro-town move, but I can also see how that can be used to earn town cred. I'll finish D1 and D2 hopefully today.
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This is not helpful. If he wrong, show us why.
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.
Oh, I think I got what you meant.
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All of my radda.
I try getting active and all of a sudden "bluhh bluhh bad posts"
I do not have valuable information or discovery to post. I have not found anything to jump on and rip open. Try as I might I just can't nab a solid read on anyone. Either I'm "Lurking" by not being very active while I try and keep up with this game, or I'm "Actively Lurking" by not having a color-coded list, in triplicate, turned in at the start of every week.
Right now, hating Swishh. Not happy that I've been duct-taped to WG by DDS.
I get that my comments about 67 sound "Fearmongery" because it was the final lynch but I was told to explain why I was concerned about a quicklynch. We still have, what? One Mislynch? Even if we had more leeway to remove suspect players and continue the game I'd be antsy about going after the un-cc'd pr because going after probably-town and getting lynched for it doesn't help the town win. All it does is waste a day. That's -my- rationale for -my- behaviour. You lot are, presumably, autonomous enough to develop your own rationale for what you do.
I don't think I duct-taped you two at all...
Reads as far as interactions were:
I don't see that as trying to make a connection between WG and you.
Sixed - post 160: best post made by Sixed. Gave reads and input. This is where he answers for the accusation and naked vote on Swishh.
Sixed gave reads on most players in this post. Overall, good post. The explanation about Swishh vote looks flimsy though, but probably true?
This is the post he switched vote from Swishh to Magenta/Cantrip. Logic behind it given but not elaborated on very well. Still can see argument given as valid, even though very short. This post was not bad...the very next post, WG states he is "ignoring Sixed the rest of the game". I'm confused what that was about. @WG: was there something in that post that merits that response? If you answered this already I didn't find it in this section.
Didn't get into D2 yet, not sure if this was addressed or not.
Between 160ish to 260ish, posting was saturated with discussion about DDS and iRebel. Me discussing the section would probably get people drunk off WIFOM. Might be worth someone else exploring, but I am probably not the best person to do it.
Post 275 enter Nyxu
Post 283 - announces intention to hammer 12hr later. No reads or additional content provided. The hammer vote was not bad, not giving input was.
Post 291 - justifies slow hammer but still doesn't give reads.
D1 ends at Post 300.
Not sure how much weight to give interactions day 1. Not sure if analysis has been productive or not. All I am concluding currently is all up to interpretation anyway. There is alot of gray area in my last post. Therefore, I have no hard conclusions from looking back at D1. I'll be checking into D2 next for interactions after first flips revealed. Hopefully that will be a little more fruitful.
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On the bold I meant I was trying to stay away from 'OMGUS' just because he was pressuring me.
I know there are other questions out there for me, I only had a few mins to pop in.
I was thinking that response showed panic.
Thank you for that analysis, MTG~DDS. I would analyze with you too, but I'm kind of crunched on time this week.
The thing is, Nyxu, you haven't done much this game. I feel like the goal of every Vanilla Townie is to be recognized as town and eat the nightkill. You've been complaining that the game has made you lurky, and you sorta become a "eh, I guess" lynch option.
This is expanded upon because everyone has a null read on you.
If you're town, you don't want to get mislynched.
The thing is, you're an acceptable lynch target right now. I could push to lynch you and I think wouldn't get much opposition at all. You're not trying hard to be town, I think is the message here. This is particularly relevant because you're a lynch candidate at lylo (if we mislynch).
Ugh. I need to analyze Nyxu's behavior more. My goal toDay is to come out with a good read on him.
post 302 - WG - Naked vote on Annorax.
Already mentioned as bus job on Annorax. He could definitely be seen as a liability at this point and a proper candidate for other scum to bus. After sifting through D1 posts, I am actually surprised Annorax did not get lynched D1. Not sure why we let him off the hook. So, this actually could be taken at face value. Annorax did need to be lynched. Not definitive scum points here.
posts 305 & 306 - Nyxu - Calling out WG pretty hard for naked voting Annorax.
Post 310 - Annorax - Voting WG right back. The OMGUS vote, knowing his alignment, can more likely be taken as reacting to a bus. Or just simply flailing.
Post 313 - MRH - calls out WG for "buddying" Polski, asks for reaction to his infamous death statement. No alignment indications here that I can see.
Post 316 - Swishh - I liked this post. Questions WG's 'eh' response to Polski's NK. Not sure about the second part. 3rd section he defends TK. Incognito later backs off the vote in 339.
319 - WG - Already discussed.
Posts 313/318/321/325 - MRH - pushing hard on getting more than hand wave answer for the WIFOM. Never gets more than that. Eventual vote due to that. This interaction lends more to MRH/WG not being scum team together. Doesn't really point to either specifically as scum, just not a team.
Post 326 - Swishh - vote on Annorax. Helps hand wave the WIFOM away from WG case. Vote on Annorax good.
Post 329 - WG - Gives more than just simple dismissal of the WIFOM attacks against him. This answer I can accept. If the same WIFOM accusation was directed at me, this is probably the best answer I could get too. Especially since Polski didn't outline what caused his suspicion.
At this point I realize, things that can be taken as bussing Annorax, can really just be…Annorax was bad-posting like crazy. It really wouldn't be a stretch to assume townies could easily make the same casings, and not definitely call it distancing or bussing.
*Post 357 - WG - Admits to being worried about PB…then PB is the NK. Corrects and says no longer worried about PB. Claims PB as town in 368. Possibly to distance himself from the Night action?
Post 379 - WG - Defends Nyxu twice in the same post. "replace Nyxu with Annorax" in scum team list. Also, doesn't think he's scum, but admits he was lurking and no further defense. Claims he will be worried about Nyxu if he continues to lurk...but not now. Possible indication of Nyxu/WG.
Post 381 - WG - Defends Sixed. Doesn't think he is scum, but no reasons given. Why not just leave it at Null read? Why go so far as to say "not scum"? Another point for possible Nyxu/WG.
*Post 389 - WG - Not really understanding this. I actually do think what Annorax posted was a slip. Did then and still do now. What I don't get is could one way or another look better? He still calls for Annorax lynch, but would calling it a slip look bad on WG somehow?
Post 409 - Swishh - Vote on TK after TK contradicted himself. True, TK flipped town...but I think this was a good vote at the time.
Post 415 - WG - Continues the bus on Annorax, and ties TK, a townie, to Annorax. There were several examples of Annorax calling out townies. Could just be another attempt.
*Post 430 - WG - unless I am not understanding it correctly…this is actually the worst post I have seen WG make, and the most anti-town statement he made. @ the underlined: WTF? Wanting less info presented = Scum…right? Apparently at the time I didn't see it as suspicious, Post 437. So either I read it wrong the first time, was convinced WG was town, or I'm not reading it correctly now.
*Outside of hunting down interactions with WG (following up with my last few posts), posts 357/389/430 are the stand alone questionable posts that WG made.
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Not sure if I made this point clear. What I was trying to get at is, I might have only found some of these interactions because I was specifically looking for interactions. Take with a grain of salt and do your own reading before you decide. If anything is out of context, bring it up.
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Post 423 Incognito suggests TK claim. That is what it was in response to...not bad anymore.
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I kind of want you to be lynched now just to satisfy my curiosity, but I can be patient.
Radda?
What I'm not seeing from you is scumhunting. DDS is doing it right: examining interactions, mindsets, opinion reversals, etc. Many of your posts--this one especially--just come off as posting air.
As DDS asked: where do you see this happening?
Cannot barn this enough. Each Night as a vanilla townie should be spent hoping that they draw the nightkill because of how well they played the Day before. That's why I've come to view vanilla town as the role I value the most with regard to becoming a better player.
I don't have a lot of time right now for additional analysis, but at this point, I'm really just waiting for Wheat to get back from V/LA. It sounds like he's risen to the challenge, so I'm anticipating it even more. (Although it is my birthday, Wheat, so if you would rather just hoist the white flag and admit you're scum, I wouldn't be too disappointed. :drool:)
I'm going to try to reread Nyxu. My analysis will probably be up tomorrow.
Wanna buy some cakes?
I don't know; why does it?
I'm sure this is hilarious to those who get the reference...but I don't.
Still no time for in-depth review, still waiting on Wheat's return.
MRHblue (1): Wheat_Grinder
Wheat_Grinder (1): Cantripmancer
Not Voting: Incognito; MRHBlue; MTG~DDS; Nyxu; swishh
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch!
V/LA
Swishh until 5/20/13
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WANNA BUY SOME CAKES?
I'm really tired so I think I'mma go to bed early tonight and then I'll see what I need to do in this game tomorrow morning.
It feels like you're being a bit bloodthirsty, especially with those smileys.
And that's terrible.
@mod: Prod on Nyxu, please?
I have already sent Nyxu a pre-prod message. If he does not post by tomorrow evening, he will be receiving a prod.
I don't know, I have a town read on Cantrip. Seems pretty clear this is a real beef, or some EXCELLENT bussing.
If a lynch has not been reached by that time, the player with the most amount of votes will be lynched.
Well...I am. But in a good way. I'm anxious for Wheat to return and respond, if he can, and die like scum if he can't.
I see what you're trying to do there.
Your feigned nonchalance does not impress me, but then again, it's not for my benefit, is it? I tip my cap in acknowledgement...but you still need to get back here and post, especially with a deadline now established.
283: Is in alignment w/meta. Can't get a read out of this one.
285: Reaffirms.
289: Upon me asking, offers reads and such. I can't get much out of this post.
291: He says that iRebel's "probably town" by virtue of not hammering himself, but then he says it's wine. He also says that he's going to be an active player in the game, which he isn't so far. He also hasn't given reads.
294: Rereads. Why does he only comment on iRebel being scum (not on any other player in the game)?
299: Votes iRebel.
305/306: Questions Wheat on his Annorax vote. The interesting thing about this is that he assumes that MTG~DDS would "flip town", which I guess if I reread it too far would mean that he already knows that MTG~DDS would flip town. +1 interaction to Wheat, if Wheat flips scum down the road.
330: Places more suspicion on Wheat. Distancing, or geniune curiosity? +1 interaction.
349: Not sure what to make of this post - proclaims that he hasn't developed "reads" on people. Though I find this post to be interesting - all of the people he's mentioned to be town/scum have flipped, and that "very, very likely to be scum" comment feels like distancing to me.
369: Active lurking.
393: More active lurking, and more bemoaning that he can't contribute content.
417: Post got eaten by iOS device, I presume? The ads are very annoying for me, as well. More active lurking, and he doesn't even try to recreate his post.
459: Votes Annorax, though I don't remember him showing any suspicion on Annorax prior to this. Scummy.
460: Broadcasts Annorax is L-2. Can't get any more mindset analysis out of this post.
469: More interaction of Wheat, but once again, can't get any reads out of this post.
474: Claims Hades, and popcorns to MTG~DDS. I wonder why?
485: Tries to attack Cantrip, and I can't get anything from the "reread" snip.
495: "pulling on loose strings" but I feel like he's just faking content at this point.
499: More poking and prodding.
511: This post reads as strange to me because I don't believe that Nyxu has mentioned me at all before this post. He's trying to... I don't know what is his mindset behind this post. More pulling on loose strings, perhaps?
513: Tries to invoke something about a town game, and bashes me on my color choice.
514: More ragging on "off" things.
520: He says that my behavior is manipulative due to color choice.
524: More bemoaning of lurking, even though the things that he says are "content" aren't really content, just pointing out things.
526: Responds to swishh's bashing of him.
565: Your posts are bad because I don't see any real scumhunting coming out of them. You're just pointing out things and calling them odd or scummy. You're OMGUSing swishh.
Conclusion: I feel like Nyxu is scummy - he's contributed stone-nothing this game, and tried to brush off pointing out odd things (such as "using my quote to add more weight" and "color coding reads" as scummy. Not to mention his Annorax vote is terrible because he's said zero on Annorax at that point.
I still want Wheat lynched because a lot of my reads on Nyxu are tied to my read on Wheat, but if Wheat flips scum I feel like Nyxu is our last scum.
Why do you believe it's feigned?
I did plan on posting today but it did not work out as planned. I started reading through but then got hung up on playing games with friends. I will rectify this immediately.
Fencesitting how?
Quotes please.
Does not mesh. You are good enough to come to the conclusion that Annorax was not attacking his buddies.
1. Yes, it could have been done by new town.
2. Why can't it be held against MRH? Interactions are everything and you KNOW this.
3. OK.
4. He was also the only one to follow Annorax there, doesn't that feel even slightly suspicious? Hell, even if your busing theory were correct, that would STILL be suspicious.
5. Eh, OK.
You missed the whole point of my argument. I say that you missed it on purpose, too.
There's a pattern that is EXTREMELY obvious (to me at least), where Annorax's wagon shows that the scum were not bussing. Period. It is reasonable to extend this assumption nearly across the board to confirm several players town: swishh and DDS, already having points in their favor, have that status solidified; Nyxu/Sixed gets some points from this (looking back at the votecounts and because of other work I'm doing in this post, I'm rewarming to the idea that Nyxu is town).
MRH is scum by POE. The scummy patterns were icing, and mere supports. If I was ever in doubt, I would do a serious case that took everything into account. As it is, the data speaks for itself.
The same, then, applies for you. I was in doubt about you, and so in this post I'm doing my case interspersed along with this response. But I've got the quotes that show you are not town.
Last but not least, you criticize me for not looking closer at the votecounts to see what was going on. You said this while you knew I was on V/LA. You spun expedience into malign intent, by taking my rationale to have come from only the one direction. I came to the conclusion from two angles at once.
You used this to chainsaw defend MRHBlue. This is made evident with how you don't even consider for a second MRH might be scum, even though his joining Annorax on my wagon points to his being scum by the busing argument.
---
Let us next roll into what I like to call the smug mudslinger portion of the proceedings. Some don't have direct links because I decided to tack this on after I had already set up quoting structure.
Smugness.
Mudslinging.
Both at once.
Both again.
Town doesn't get smug like this for someone just ignoring them. Mostly they get a little peeved because their trying to judge the reactions.
But not Cantripmancer. He's getting smug, because he knows he's got something on me that looks good as a case, while being complete and utter horse poop when it comes to determining alignment. He follows this up with mudslinging to reinforce the idea that I'm scum, that I have to "fabricate" rationale, that my nonchalance is "feigned".
He's trying to discredit me in the hopes that everyone thinks that I was playing scummy, and therefore my reasoning cannot be correct, even when I flip town.
I am now fine with any series of events ending with Cantripmancer, MRHBlue, and myself being dead. I will push any of the three.
I can see that due to paranoia it may very well take me being dead to prove the pattern, and we have a mislynch left. I'll sacrifice myself for the sake of proving the pattern.
Apparently every other game I've played in I've gotten lucky and found something to do. That or being a pr fundamentally changes how I play. This game has proven time and again difficult to read and yes I've grasped at things that made little sense. This said in vanilla mafia I grasped at lurk tactics in xyre who at the end was scum (I think I did this to DRey as well in haruhi). I asked questions about off behaviour, albeit minor, because minor tics are what come through as scum.
You ask why I popcorned dds, who should I have selected? Would you have placed scrutiny had I popcorned anyone else?
Because I believe you're caught, and trying to project a veneer of casual calm, which you think will come off townier. On the other hand, I feel like you made it obvious, posting that "I'mma going to bed rather than respond". (You said you couldn't post until Sunday, but posted that on Saturday...just to point out that even though you were around to post, you chose to wait until today to do so.)
You make a statement without making a commitment. Especially in response to a direct question, that's bad.
In 145, Trabant brought Annorax to L-2. In 154, you compared the two quickwagons, noted the pattern (heh) of Trabant being on both of them, and unvoted Annorax to vote Trabant, despite your vote on Annorax in 140 seeming serious. If that was a serious vote for something you thought was scummy, why not let Annorax respond before shifting the wagon to Trabant?
In 190, right after Polski comes in and says Annorax is the best bet for scum, you say that you "don't feel super good about Annorax being scum anymore". Polski agrees, and then Swishh unvotes Annorax, effectively ending the wagon on Annorax for the day.
And 412:
You're ready to get off the Annorax wagon anytime the town thinks you should.
I wasn't getting anything usable because all of his targets were dead. And I thought "Annorax was not attacking his buddies" was contained in "pretty much all the players he attacked or ID'd as scum have come up town".
Explain how Annorax following MRH onto a townie's wagon makes MRH more likely to be scum.
Ok, first, I said it was suspicious; don't try to imply that I didn't. Second, it would feel more suspicious if MRH were experienced. As it is, I'm having a hard time seeing that it was an intentional, calculated double-attack (or double-bus) rather than the more-likely: a newer player bulldog-latching onto something an experienced player (Polski) asserted.
What do you mean "Eh, OK."? That was a big part of your incontrovertible "data" ("Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly." More on that later.)
How convenient that this assertion is based on you being town. WE don't know that the scum were not bussing; if you and Nyxu are the remaining scum, then the scum certainly were bussing. You pre-emptively, and Nyxu because he read the writing on the wall. (And note that Annorax tried miserably to smear Pinky by calling her vote a bussing attempt, so Annorax was certainly familiar with the idea.)
Since you don't know Nyxu's or Swishh's alignments (right? ;)), why would you make that assumption?
Ok, let's look back at this data. First, recall that I asked you for specifics:
I cede that your specific assertion in that first nested quote was "The evidence points to the scum not voting each other." And yes, I missed that that was your baseline, because when I went to 516 and 517, the first was just you re-coloring Incognito's listing of the votecounts, and the second was this:
Your assertion in 534 was that you were "certain" MRH was scum. That certainty felt a little off, so I was researching that, and the part relating to MRH was:
This entire paragraph uses statistics and patterns to establish MRH as scum. "Voting the same wagon as Annorax in 4 of the 9 votecounts". "More than any other player." "Sheeping TK." "Every time TK voted, MRH jumped on behind him very quickly."
Now, maybe you're no expert at votecount analysis, but you've been around long enough to know that you can't just look at a list of VCs and tally them up on your fingers. MRH didn't vote "4 out of 9" with Annorax; he voted a player Annorax was voting once and Annorax voted a player MRH was voting once. MRH didn't "sheep" TK "every time". He voted the same as TK twice, once with two players in-between and once with a mess of content in-between.
Let's also note the use of the word "data", as in statistics, numbers, facts. Annorax's wagon, with three unknown players on it, cannot factually support your assumption that the scum are not bussing this game, therefore, that can't be what you're highlighting as "data". The numbers and statistics that you spout about MRH, on the other hand, fit that definition.
All the elements that I saw as being used by you as "data" to be "certain" that MRH was scum were patently false.
If you weren't using the "data" I've demolished above to vote MRH right before you went V/LA on a day that only takes 4 to lynch, then I feel you were risking an awful lot on your gut feeling that "the scum aren't bussing this game".
See above. If you didn't do the research, you shouldn't be using it to guide your vote (and I don't feel like your "other" angle was legitimate).
Pointing out as false a focused part of a post you said contained "data" that a player was scum is not a chainsaw defense of that player. And no, I would be surprised to see both scum bussing like that, without crowd cover from other townies. Finding that you fabricated data to accuse MRH pretty much eliminated MRH as scum in my mind.
Guilty. I rarely get the chance to be this right. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow for it, but if I'm right, I'll be intolerable for the next 2-3 games.
Again, pretty much guilty. I knew you said you wouldn't have a chance til Sunday, but you posted, so I couldn't resist the dig. How, though, does this make me scum?
Here I disagree. Smug, yes, but I've already called you scum multiple times; where's the mudslinging? (And it really was my birthday, and it really would have been a nice gift if you had spared me this additional repartee, regardless of how invigorating it is.)
Again, accept the smug-label, but disagree on the mudsling. I suspect you of doing the emotional equivalent of hand-waving my argument: "What you're asserting is so laughable that it bothers me not a bit; I'm going to go sleep the sleep of the innocent."
Wait, what? Did you just admit that you were ignoring me and not V/LA? Because I wasn't getting peeved because you said you were V/LA.
I'm smug because I know I have something on you that shows that you strongly asserted another player as scum based on a pack of lies. I feel completely comfortable believing that I know your alignment based on this.
Hmm, let's see if this holds up: I was so concerned about you going after my scumbuddy, MRH, that I devised this attack and pursued it so vehemently that when you flip town, not only is a crapsack-ton of suspicion going to be directed at me, but then also right back at MRH? Mmm, I don't think so.
I'm not fine with any series of events ending with myself or MRH being dead; Wheat is scum and needs to be lynched.
EWP: @Nyxu: Please weigh in on Wheat. I get that you're under attack, too, but you're not commenting on Wheat at all (other than incorrectly implying that you've been duct-taped to him).
"you can be reconstructed by the hole you left"
I suggest everyone look at annorax interactions. He only ever called out town names, and oddly enough pb was chosen as the nk after annorax called her out in a last ditch sling.
Was annorax directing the kill or was the play an attempt to establish a pattern of annorax attacking only town (smoke screening a scum he feigned an attack on early on)
Wheats three person list is interesting. I would insist that if we play his game, he dies second- though at the same time the linking of myself and wheat means that the only way I could force scum!wheat to trade one for one (conventional knowledge: scum loses on trades) is to have him die first, he flips scum, the "if wheat is scum so is Nyx" team strings me up, etc.
My gut says swish is less involved than could be.
Not to mention his.... Unpleasant behaviour earlier towards me.
I agree that my question about popcorning is nitpicky and was most likely made with a couple second's thought.
Explain the Annorax vote, then. Not to mention that swishh has been one of the most pro town players Day 1 and Day 2 (either that or he's /excellent/ at bussing)
The thing that drives me crazy is that, even though I find Nyxu to be scummy, we can't lynch him. We have to lynch one of the Cantrip/Wheat dichotomy and move from there. It's very frustrating when there are fewer mislynches baked into the game.
@MTG~DDS, swishh: Do you think that there could be a Nyxu/MRHBlue scumteam? I want this dichotomy to be resolved with a scumlynch, and both Cantrip and Wheat flipping town equals an instant loss to the game.
It comes down to brain vs. gut, for me.
Wheat is probably the more likely scum based on Annorax interactions. The D2 bus, and the concerted effort to lynch Trabant777/iRebel.
But my gut is still ringing alarm bells on Cantripmancer. It's saying that Cantripmancer is too bloodthirsty/overconfident, and that he just /feels/ just scum. Those smileys just seem off to me, I guess.
Ugh. I'll think about this more before we decide the Day.
"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both..." One of the two, PoE says, is correct. One of the two is obviously incorrect. WG and Cantrip seem to be two completely separate camps. Both will give us information with flips. Cantrip may just be an excellent wordsmith, but his case and counter-rebuttal look better to me at this point. Strongest case is against WG. I think our best course today is WG. If he flips town, Cantrip/MRH look bad. Scum flip my best bet is Nyxu, mainly PoE though.
I would like more from Nyxu about:
are there posts Swishh made that you don't like? Interactions? Or just the back-and-forth the two of you had...
And:
@Swishh: what is your take on current cases?
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
I'm trying to leave emotion behind, and use logic.
As to the time differences, it's because of two things: First, the days were in flux because I have to catch up in four different games, and second, I didn't want to post while tired. I'm sure you can see why I wouldn't.
I have nothing to argue back against this.
Explain to me how this comes from a scum alignment when I stopped the quickwagon on town right before.
This one I concede.
Such spin. I was trying to get either of the two I felt were scum lynched.
Hello, he had targets who did not flip. You are willfully ignoring this.
Looking again I see that I don't really have a point there. Conceded.
I was proven incorrect there, it was still the smaller part of my reasoning.
Hence why I'm okay with being lynched; it proves the pattern and wins the game.
Dude, I just explained why I couldn't look more closely at the votecounts.
I misspoke then, analysis of the data speaks for itself. Why do you keep harping on that single word, by the way?
Evidence pointed to swishh and DDS being town. Using this, it strongly pointed to a lack of busing.
Facts, no. Logical extrapolation, yes.
It is not a gut feeling. Such misrepresentation. You also misrepresent your "demolishment" as stronger than it was.
The other angle was sufficient to guide my vote.
You are going to squeeze every last drop from that word aren't you.
Also, this is all fixed by me flipping town.
Get ready to eat crow.
Mudslinging is not legitimate reasoning; it's painting the picture of scum rather than illuminating the reality of the situation.
True, you had already called me scum, but the way of it feels subtly of mudslinging to me.
Dude, this is a game of mafia. Why do you think I am losing sleep over this no matter what my alignment is?
"Feigning" was the mudsling.
V/LA caused me to ignore you. I didn't have time to respond decently.
Funny, I was just thinking the same about you.
Exactly the argument you'll make if I'm lynched.
Not sure if I answered this.
I don't really see MRH/Nyxu scum team. Either could be, but I doubt together. Cantrip is defending MRH pretty hard and WG has defended Nyxu/Sixed throughout the game. I did not find any significant connection between the two individually. Cantrip/WG is the elephant in the room. It is hard to see past them. Only way I could see MRH/Nyxu is if WG flips town. However, if that happens, it will be difficult not to tunnel on Cantrip. Did you see connections I missed?
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
*Clarification: I think arguments on either side are now getting spun.
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
MRH and Cantripmancer are definitely the scum for reasons already outlined over and over again.
FWIW, I'm too cautious as scum to ever come off as bloodthirsty/overconfident except when I'm bussing. Not that this helps you with your dilemma, but just saying.
I still don't see why this is such a strong point for you.
I have no problem with you taking your time catching up. You had already confirmed you were waiting until Sunday to post; why did you feel the need to post the "I'mma going to bed" post?
You weren't on the town quickwagon right before; you were on Annorax's, with a legitimate reason that wasn't addressed before you unvoted.
You see it as spin; I see the bolded...
...and see you taking an opportunity to further Incognito's suggestion and avoid the wagon on your buddy.
He had a few attacks on DDS D1 (before Annorax came under scrutiny), which is one of the reasons I think DDS is town. He had one(?) attack on swishh? If there were more, please point them out to me and I'll reexamine my beliefs, but even so, what's your point?
I'm going to have to ask you to put words there, because I'm not entirely sure that I know what that smily's supposed to convey.
Even if you're town, I don't see how it proves the pattern. You can't just assume that every scum is going to avoid attacking his buddies all the way through the game. Not only is it an illogical assumption, but you're only basing it off of one dead scum.
Ok, so you didn't have time. Here's the questionable portion of that post again:
Explain why you would post those specifics if you hadn't examined the votecounts enough to make assertions like that.
Because you used it to sound scientific, which is an attempt to sound logical, which is an attempt to sound town.
See above. Logical extrapolation based on one scum's actions and the liklihood of unknown players being town isn't that logical.
How is it not a gut feeling? How does "one scum didn't attack any known scum" equate to "the scumteam isn't bussing this game"? And note that you've pointed out that there were players Annorax attacked that are unknown in alignment to us.
I will be pretty sad if this is a town-vs-town bloodbath, but I still feel pretty good about this.
Fair enough.
You wouldn't be the first. One of my recent games included a conversation about a player being more or less likely to be scum based on thinking about the game in the shower. And you don't have to really lose sleep to plant that idea in the minds of the readers; the result is the same: "It's no big deal because I know I'm town, so downplay, downplay, downplay."
But I really believe you're feigning; how is that a mudsling?
So I'm scum because I didn't get annoyed that you didn't post when you said you weren't going to post?
Yeah, unfortunately, I feel like I'm in a little too deep to avoid being lynched if you come up town. Incognito's already feeling peeps out on that. Just flip scum, please.
In before wheat is neutral survivor because Odds don't add up
I couldn't remember what days I promised content in which games. I was planning on making the post Saturday because you wanted content from me so badly.
That doesn't explain why me stopping Annorax's wagon right after stopping a town wagon makes me scum.
He attacked me. It's in the votecount even.
My point is that you are going out of your way NOT to analyze.
I usually don't. It's just so blatantly obvious that they haven't been busing, a position supported by the scum team being new to the game, or else not playing often in the case of Annorax.
I meant I didn't look closely at the votecounts as in I didn't look at the vote histories in between each votecount; I only went through quickly for statistics. It doesn't take long to see that MRH and Annorax voted together often, and that MRH voted with TK even more often.
It eliminates all the possibilities except for three people if you take Annorax's history alone. If you look at those three, Nyxu is less likely to be a scummate with you or with MRH than you are with MRH.
I think you actually feel seriously about this one, so I'll just say that you are way overthinking this.
Eh, I'll concede it because there's no real point; it's all semantics anyway.
I totally lost the thread of this particular conversation and I'm about to be drawn back into a game with friends again so I can't check what the thread is.
Vote Nyxu
Really? That's what pushes you over the edge?
That is what gets you to go from "We need to focus on the WG/Cantrip dichotomy" to outright voting me?
Play the gamestate. Between WG and Cantrip you believe there to be one scum. If you're right on that then the best play, and I mean the -best- one, is to hunt the scum out of the pair and -then- go after me. Call it fearmongering or whatever but it's what you've said yourself. We cant afford the needless mislynch.
Thanks in advance.