Also, @Kraj: have you finished reading the game, and if so, what are your thoughts about our situation?
No. With the game silence I wasn't particularly motivated. But since it appears people haven't made up their minds about GD then I should get it done.
I'm curious as to why Ximbad is the next top pick after GDfor folks. As of post 596, my notes have only a couple strongly scummy posts from Ximbad, whereas I've several for Voxx.
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Post 619: Vox inquires "if Manders is scum who is scum with her?"
Post 643: Vox thinks both Manders and Ximbad are scummy but not both scum together.
Townies, especially inexperienced ones, very often fall into this kind of fallacious thinking. Viewing scum suspects as a group, and evaluating whether interactions between scum suspects make sense, is a very townie way of thinking. It's poor logic (which, combined with a plethora of scummy-looking actions, is why i say he's terrible) but it shows a townie thought process.
Further, I also see in post 664 he says "My primary method of analysis revolves around analyzing interactions after a flip occurs, but there's been extremely little voting or interactions in this game." This statement fits the behavior pattern I already identified, which leads me to believe it's genuine.
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I think the most probable scenario is that GD simply has an invisible vote. This would mean he never proved he couldn't actually vote, only that his votes don't show up on the vote count. This would explain why his hammer of Iso didn't show up on the vote count, why Iso died at L-1, and why Dork Knight died at L-1. This would also mean GD is lying scum, obviously. I think there's a fair behavior case to back up the role evidence as well.
So this plays out one of two ways:
1. We just lynch GD. 'Nuff said.
2. We lynch Manders and GD hammers. Manders seems high enough on most people's scum lists, and if she's lying scum then yay. If she's telling the truth, then GD dies so we get a 2-for-1 lynch. If GD fails to hammer, we lynch him. If they are both town, then we'd probably lose by lynching GD anyway so we're no worse off.
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Townies, especially inexperienced ones, very often fall into this kind of fallacious thinking. Viewing scum suspects as a group, and evaluating whether interactions between scum suspects make sense, is a very townie way of thinking. It's poor logic (which, combined with a plethora of scummy-looking actions, is why i say he's terrible) but it shows a townie thought process.
Hm, I have to disagree. It could also be a possibility that a scum Voxx wants to keep his lynch options open. You said yourself that a few players find manders scummy, so why would it not be advantageous for a scum Voxx to reserve the right to vote her?
I think a scum-team of Voxx, G_D, and Ximbad is most likely, but I'm more sure on G_D than the other two.
I think the most probable scenario is that GD simply has an invisible vote. This would mean he never proved he couldn't actually vote, only that his votes don't show up on the vote count. This would explain why his hammer of Iso didn't show up on the vote count, why Iso died at L-1, and why Dork Knight died at L-1. This would also mean GD is lying scum, obviously. I think there's a fair behavior case to back up the role evidence as well.
So this plays out one of two ways:
1. We just lynch GD. 'Nuff said.
2. We lynch Manders and GD hammers. Manders seems high enough on most people's scum lists, and if she's lying scum then yay. If she's telling the truth, then GD dies so we get a 2-for-1 lynch. If GD fails to hammer, we lynch him. If they are both town, then we'd probably lose by lynching GD anyway so we're no worse off.
An invisible vote is something I never considered. I'm surprised G_D offered no rebuttal.
Hm, I have to disagree. It could also be a possibility that a scum Voxx wants to keep his lynch options open. You said yourself that a few players find manders scummy, so why would it not be advantageous for a scum Voxx to reserve the right to vote her?
A. What Voxx said: "I think Manders and Xim are both scummy but not scum together."
B. What Voxx could have said: "I think Manders and Xim are both scummy."
You're going to have to explain to me how A is keeping his options more open than B.
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It's possible that he just invented a relationship. I could see that happening with both a town and a scum. He could want to appear to have an understanding of the relationship. As far as I know, he offered no specifics as to why he felt that way, so simply inventing it is plausible. Unless you can produce evidence to the contrary.
All I'm saying is that you're quick to rule him out for reasons that may not be as sound as you think. He is still a possible mafia member.
.... um, duh? I mean, everyone is a possible mafia member, nobody is completely ruled out, everyone's behavior could be explained by both town or mafia motivations. That's the point of the game.
My read on those posts is they are genuine and demonstrative of townie thinking, and strong enough to outweigh his more generically scummy posts. You disagree. OK.
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I'm kinda confused as to how Manders being hammered by G_D would give us a 2-for-1 as well, unless I missed a bread crumb or something...
Manders claimed that if she was killed, whoever voted her last would also die.
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I would like a day or two to re-read the thread in full.
I feel like I have a couple potential connections I'd like to explore, and I want to re-examine the first few days in light of the town that have flipped.
I've had trouble getting invested in this game, but I'm only in two, now, and I should give this the attention it deserves, considering we're likely at LYLO.
Huge post should be forthcoming sometime this weekend. I just ask that we hold off until at least Sunday at Midnight to hammer G_D, or anyone else.
I'm less sure on the third slot, but given the mechanical dichotomy between ganderin_dan and greymon, I'm probably still okay with lynching g_d.
I actually can see Tom being scum as well, considering his three strongest scum reads were Reya, Iso, and myself - which I know all three of us are town.
But I'm more inclined to believe that he's just wrong, rather than scum.
I think Reya gave the vig weapon to scum last night.
I was roleblocked last night, and no one is claiming to have received it.
So today's lynch is extremely critical.
Manders pushing to No Lynch is extremely telling in light of that.
Ximbad is at least possible scum - he was a very strong scum read of mine early, and it's possible that his buddies have simply been distancing themselves from him. But the first two on that wagon have both flipped confirmed town. I'm town.
And Kpaca pushed the wagon on Iso hard in opposition to the wagon on Manders.
Mander's claimed that she would kill whoever hammered her if she was lynched.
That could be analysed two different ways:
Either she is town, and telling the truth about her role - and therefore scum did not want to mislynch her, because it would require them killing themselves.
Or she is scum and lying, and scum didn't vote for her because... she is their scumbuddy.
Either way, that wagon stalling out when at least three out of the four on it were town is damning.
After looking Reya and his posts over, I think either Kpaca or Tom has the gun, and is scum.
I think Tom is misguided town.
Therefore I think Kpaca is scum. With a gun.
I think lynching him is the optimal move.
I think the scum team is Manders, Kpaca, and... probably ganderin_dan, I guess.
Although I can see Zionite fitting in that team better, mechanically, g_d makes more sense.
I don't think she's scum, either. In particular, her hounding Iso repeatedly on a couple of different questions reminds me a lot of her play in Hecatea & *shudder* Flame Warriors.
That changes a few things in my thoughts, need to re-examine a couple things.
Going to do some wagon analysis of Dork Knight, Reya and Iso, since there's been at least a small wagon on each of them, and they have flipped town.
If anyone has the daykill knife, they need to speak up. Today is extrmemely likely to be LYLO, considering the hammer restrictions, and a day kill to extend the day would be amazing.
That wagon stalled out. Why? Because Kpaca pushed the Iso wagon, Tom and Zionite pushed the wagon on me, and Manders claimed Supersaint. I covered this briefly earlier, but I see her claim as being one of two things.
1.) She's town, and scum did not want to lynch her because almost everyone not lynching her was scum, and would die if they hammered.
2.) She's scum, and they piled on an alternative lynch instead - myself/Iso.
Here was the Iso wagon, for posterity's sake:
Iso (5): kpaca, Zionite, MandersHex, Tom88, Voxxicus
Zionite and Manders both on that. What a shock.
So, I propose this:
We lynch Manders, but force Zionite to be the 'hammer', or L-1 vote.
We will get one of three outcomes.
1) Manders is town, and Zionite (or maybe g_d?) dies.
2) Manders is scum, and we lynch a scum. Yay.
3) Zionite refuses to hammer, so we just lynch him instead.
I am convinced that at least one of Manders and Zionite is scum.
I think there is a pretty decent chance that Kpaca is scum.
I honestly haven't liked a single thing greymon has said or done this game, but also think ganderin_dan makes more sense to be scum mechanically. The problem is, that everyone thinks the same thing - including people that have to be scum.
That kind of unanimous opinion makes me kind of wary.
If there's a day kill out there, I want Ganderin_Dan shot.
And then I want Manders lynched, with Zionite being the hammer.
My scumdar really ping'd when he said what he did about whoever had the knife. It's been made very clear that whoever has the knife isn't going to say anything about it. Personally, I'm starting to believe he has it.
The only thing I can't figure out now is if he's bussing g_d, or if there really are two town non-voters in this game...
I am town, I'll even claim in this post, since there's zero reason not to, as I think we're at LYLO.
I'm Frank Ocean, Town Bodyguard.
I die in place of someone else if they'd have died.
Night One, I targeted Iso, because he was my strongest town read, and seemed likely to get shot in the face if he was town.
Night Two, I targeted Tom, because he was universally considered town, and I thought he was the most likely NK target.
I was roleblocked Night Two.
With me being town, and Dork Knight flipping town, Manders and Zionite both being town would mean 7 of the 9 town in this game were involved with this wagon, and zero scum.
I do not think it is possible for a town player to be lynched on day one, with six votes on him, and three scum alive, and none of them be scum.
No chance. Zero.
Therefore, at least one of Manders and Knifehands (Zionite) is scum.
Reya has flipped town, so it's worth analysing this. Iso has also flipped town. I think there's absolutely at least one scum pushing that wagon. I still think Tom is town, despite his reads being hilariously bad (his scum reads were me, Iso and Reya, all of who are town).
So at least one of Kpaca and Manders is scum. Possibly both!
The first three people on this wagon were all town. Ximbad is an unknown - I wanted him dead the first two days, but there have been a couple posts more recently that have me more willing to accept he might be town. Or at least, I think Manders, Zionite, and Kpaca are all more likely scum than him at this juncture.
I also covered in my previous post why this wagon stalled out.
Her claim.
No matter her alignment, I don't think scum were going to lynch her at that point, either because there were a ton of town voting for her, and they'd probably have to hammer (and be killed), or because, y'know - she was scum, and they weren't going to hammer her, when they could mislynch Iso or me instead.
That brings us tot the last wagon worth analysing:
Iso (5): kpaca, Zionite, MandersHex, Tom88, Voxxicus
This is the wagon that Kpaca pushed in opposition to the Manders lynch. I freely admit that I let myself be talked into a bad lynch that I was against on day one, because Iso kind of imploded, and made a weird claim (that he botched). But the first three people on this wagon look bad with him flipping town. Like, bad to the point that I absolutely think we have two scum in that group of three players.
I'm torn between ganderin_dan and greymon, though. I don't really like either of them.
If I had a day kill, I think I'd shoot Zionite at this point. If he flipped town, I'd lynch the ever-living hell out of Manders. If he flipped scum, I'd still probably lynch Manders, but ganderin_dan would be acceptable as well.
Kpaca and Kraj both trying to dismiss my analysis as terrible and dumb is frankly ticking me off, and I need to be careful that I'm not letting that interfere with my read on that slot. Identifying town, and using behavioral analysis to look back on earlier interactions involving them, specifically with voting analysis is a very strong method of analysis, that is difficult for scum to defend against.
So just trying to discredit me or dismiss it as a method of analysis is the usual course of action.
With 8 people alive, here is my ranking of the remaining players, from most likely scum to least:
MandersHex
Zionite
Ganderin_Dan
Kraj
Ximbad
Greymon
Tom
Voxxicus
Voting analysis is great, though I'd rather see some behavioral stances. The only point against me in your research is that my predecessor voted a town and I voted Iso, who was legitimately scummy.
I would also like to hear from manders as well. I could be persuaded to vote her depending on her response, but I'm worried about the supersaint backfiring on us and ending the game. At this point I feel like G_D or Kraj are the better lynches.
No lynching seems like a bad idea. The time we hypothetically gain isn't worth the risk of losing another PR.
I still think a No Lynch could be fruitful for us, but I can't do it on my own, and you guys disagree, so whatever.
Unvote
I asked about the knife to use it as a potential second lynch, being as (iirc) it's a daykill, and if answered, suggest/volunteer that I be the target.
You can volunteer to be the target without fishing for someone to claim.
Oh, and Manders, the role I'm referring to is the hypothetical scum stump that passively lowers the lynch threshold by one that I suggested.
Oh, I must have missed that. That's possible, yes. It could, also, be the actual role you have, so I like how you throw in "hypothetical" to your sentence.
Post 619: Vox inquires "if Manders is scum who is scum with her?"
Post 643: Vox thinks both Manders and Ximbad are scummy but not both scum together.
Townies, especially inexperienced ones, very often fall into this kind of fallacious thinking. Viewing scum suspects as a group, and evaluating whether interactions between scum suspects make sense, is a very townie way of thinking. It's poor logic (which, combined with a plethora of scummy-looking actions, is why i say he's terrible) but it shows a townie thought process.
Further, I also see in post 664 he says "My primary method of analysis revolves around analyzing interactions after a flip occurs, but there's been extremely little voting or interactions in this game." This statement fits the behavior pattern I already identified, which leads me to believe it's genuine.
I think the most probable scenario is that GD simply has an invisible vote. This would mean he never proved he couldn't actually vote, only that his votes don't show up on the vote count. This would explain why his hammer of Iso didn't show up on the vote count, why Iso died at L-1, and why Dork Knight died at L-1. This would also mean GD is lying scum, obviously. I think there's a fair behavior case to back up the role evidence as well.
So this plays out one of two ways:
1. We just lynch GD. 'Nuff said.
2. We lynch Manders and GD hammers. Manders seems high enough on most people's scum lists, and if she's lying scum then yay. If she's telling the truth, then GD dies so we get a 2-for-1 lynch. If GD fails to hammer, we lynch him. If they are both town, then we'd probably lose by lynching GD anyway so we're no worse off.
Wait, what? I'm high on Voxxicus' scum list, but who else? You yourself have stated you think I'm town, so why would you say this out of nowhere?
This is incorrect. It's a very small chance and unlikely, but there most definitely is a chance.
That wagon stalled out. Why? Because Kpaca pushed the Iso wagon, Tom and Zionite pushed the wagon on me, and Manders claimed Supersaint.
The wagon died because it was based on Iso pushing it for stupid reasons that he couldn't even explain. At the time, I believed kpaca pushed the wagon on Iso because he saw through his bull**** case and believed Iso was scum making a bull**** case, but Kraj's previous statement that I'm high enough on most people's t/s lists that I should be lynched, even though he's said he thinks I'm town, really, really bothers me. Luckily, I have some experience with Kraj as scum (Joss Whedon Mafia), so I need to think back on how he acted then (though I was still new to the game and, frankly, spent the entire game completely confused and in awe of all of the veterans in it.)
I am town, I'll even claim in this post, since there's zero reason not to, as I think we're at LYLO.
I'm Frank Ocean, Town Bodyguard.
I die in place of someone else if they'd have died.
Night One, I targeted Iso, because he was my strongest town read, and seemed likely to get shot in the face if he was town.
Night Two, I targeted Tom, because he was universally considered town, and I thought he was the most likely NK target.
I was roleblocked Night Two.
I believe this claim, though it makes even less sense for you to breadcrumb like you did D2. A bodyguard WANTS to die via their ability because it means they did their job. They don't want to ANNOUNCE to scum they have a power role and get themselves killed.
I do not think it is possible for a town player to be lynched on day one, with six votes on him, and three scum alive, and none of them be scum.
No chance. Zero.
Dude, it's happened before, and will happen again, I'm sure. There is ALWAYS a chance of ANYTHING happening. You can't just dismiss something because it's unlikely OR illogical. That's setting yourself up for failure.
Voting analysis is great, though I'd rather see some behavioral stances. The only point against me in your research is that my predecessor voted a town and I voted Iso, who was legitimately scummy.
I would also like to hear from manders as well. I could be persuaded to vote her depending on her response, but I'm worried about the supersaint backfiring on us and ending the game. At this point I feel like G_D or Kraj are the better lynches.
Not one person has provided any type of behavioral analysis on me, yet you're willing to go along with it?
The supersaint claim WILL backfire on you, and, if scum play it right, is highly likely to end the game with a scum victory. Call it fearmongering if you want, but it absolutely IS something to consider.
As of right now, I'm open to lynch g_d or Kraj. Voxxicus is misguided town. Ximbad feels town, but a small part of my gut tells me I'm wrong. Zionite could be scum, too, but I ALWAYS think Zionite is scum, so I'm being cautious with him. Tom, as he has all game, reads town to me. Greymon also reads town and his frustration at being castrated is real. He WANTS to participate in the voting aspect, but can't, and it's getting to him. That seems to me to be a town mindset, especially since it's progressively gotten worse the closer we get to a scum victory.
Top three for scum, to me, are g_d, Kraj, and Ximbad. Ximbad could be replaced by Zionite. I'm confident the rest are town.
I still think a No Lynch could be fruitful for us, but I can't do it on my own, and you guys disagree, so whatever.
Unvote
You can volunteer to be the target without fishing for someone to claim.
Oh, I must have missed that. That's possible, yes. It could, also, be the actual role you have, so I like how you throw in "hypothetical" to your sentence.
Like Zionite said, he's made his case on you very clear from D1 when you were Zelderex. Dismissing it in this fashion just looks terrible.
This is a good observation that I missed.
Wait, what? I'm high on Voxxicus' scum list, but who else? You yourself have stated you think I'm town, so why would you say this out of nowhere?
Telling how? How would a no lynch be beneficial to scum?
This is incorrect. It's a very small chance and unlikely, but there most definitely is a chance.
The wagon died because it was based on Iso pushing it for stupid reasons that he couldn't even explain. At the time, I believed kpaca pushed the wagon on Iso because he saw through his bull**** case and believed Iso was scum making a bull**** case, but Kraj's previous statement that I'm high enough on most people's t/s lists that I should be lynched, even though he's said he thinks I'm town, really, really bothers me. Luckily, I have some experience with Kraj as scum (Joss Whedon Mafia), so I need to think back on how he acted then (though I was still new to the game and, frankly, spent the entire game completely confused and in awe of all of the veterans in it.)
Explain this, because he seems to be reading just fine, and this reads as a terrible pot shot.
I believe this claim, though it makes even less sense for you to breadcrumb like you did D2. A bodyguard WANTS to die via their ability because it means they did their job. They don't want to ANNOUNCE to scum they have a power role and get themselves killed.
Dude, it's happened before, and will happen again, I'm sure. There is ALWAYS a chance of ANYTHING happening. You can't just dismiss something because it's unlikely OR illogical. That's setting yourself up for failure.
Not one person has provided any type of behavioral analysis on me, yet you're willing to go along with it?
The supersaint claim WILL backfire on you, and, if scum play it right, is highly likely to end the game with a scum victory. Call it fearmongering if you want, but it absolutely IS something to consider.
As of right now, I'm open to lynch g_d or Kraj. Voxxicus is misguided town. Ximbad feels town, but a small part of my gut tells me I'm wrong. Zionite could be scum, too, but I ALWAYS think Zionite is scum, so I'm being cautious with him. Tom, as he has all game, reads town to me. Greymon also reads town and his frustration at being castrated is real. He WANTS to participate in the voting aspect, but can't, and it's getting to him. That seems to me to be a town mindset, especially since it's progressively gotten worse the closer we get to a scum victory.
Top three for scum, to me, are g_d, Kraj, and Ximbad. Ximbad could be replaced by Zionite. I'm confident the rest are town.
Vote: ganderin_dan
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
UGH THANK YOU. I love playing mafia, and I've been friends with Pinkfloyd on here for a long time, but this game has been driving me insane. I know I've been modgaming about the two non-voters for the majority of the game, but it's all I've had to go on, and I can't even prove it!
I knew when Pinkfloyd messaged me my role PM and told me I was the Town Lesbian, I was gonna be in for a frustrating game...
Quick side note though, I do have a renewed love for flannel and Justin Bieber though :/
You yourself have stated you think I'm town, so why would you say this out of nowhere?
You mean in one of my earliest posts when I said you were "probably" town based on the one post of relevance you had made in the first couple hundred posts of the game? Cuz I don't believe I've said a word since about thinking you're town.
I notice you don't say anything at all about my suggestion of forcing GD to hammer you so that you can kill him, even though he's your lynch pick. If you're willing to consider an unusual play like a no lynch, why not even discuss the possibility of allowing yourself to die and take GD with you?
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My biggest problem with Voxxicus' posts analyzing the wagons is that he assumes he is town too mucch. He's still on my scum list, so I'm clearly not willing to assume that. I do agree that there is almost definitely 1 mafia member that was on the DK wagon, possibly 2, but it isn't narrowed down to Zionite and MandersHex; Voxxicus is also a possibility.
I think we have scum narrowed down further by looking at g_d vs. greymon. That said, I'm pretty much waiting on g_d to finish up his T/S list stuff.
I was going off of the fact that you were forced to claim. Looking at the actual vote count, half the people who were voting you are dead now.
So, what are your thoughts now, then?
You mean in one of my earliest posts when I said you were "probably" town based on the one post of relevance you had made in the first couple hundred posts of the game? Cuz I don't believe I've said a word since about thinking you're town.
I haven't seen you say anything to make me think you were thinking otherwise, so it's concerning to see you just switch for apparently no reason.
I notice you don't say anything at all about my suggestion of forcing GD to hammer you so that you can kill him, even though he's your lynch pick. If you're willing to consider an unusual play like a no lynch, why not even discuss the possibility of allowing yourself to die and take GD with you?
It's more risky than if we no lynched. If we're wrong and both g_d and I are town, then I truly believe the scum will have won. And I have to accept the possibility that I could be wrong about him.
Greymon really does feel like town to me. His aggravation feels genuine, and in the past he's even said that he's willing to be lynched. Though it is WIFOM, I really doubt that it is scum reverse-psychology. I'd be surprised if Greymon is scum.
G_d, on the other hand, seems scummy, for the reasons people have said. Says he can hammer, but fails to hammer twice. Kraj makes a great point about the possibility of his vote being invisible; it would explain a lot.
Upon reviewing everything I'm pretty convinced g_d is the mafia member here, not greymon.
My biggest problem with Voxxicus' posts analyzing the wagons is that he assumes he is town too mucch
Uh.
No ****?
Of course I'm going to mark myself as town when I do my analysis, the analysis would be worthless otherwise.
I also claimed, which I notice you completely ignored.
At least one of Manders and Zionite is scum.
We should force Zionite to hammer Manders.
Manders trying to handwave away the analysis as 'BUT THERE COULD BE SIX TOWN VOTING FOR ANOTHER TOWN, AND NO SCUM INVOLVED IN THE MISLYNCH' actually makes me think there's a reasonable chance that both she and Zionite are scum.
I challenge anyone to find a mislynch on day one of a Mini that had at least six people voting for a town member, with none of them non-town.
Your analysis is worthless to me anyway, because I'm not convinced you are town. I see your claim, but I don't necessarily believe it.
Saying that zionite and/or manders is scum because the rest of the people that were on the DK wagon are confirmed town is false, because there is one person on that wagon besides them that is not confirmed town. That person is you.
There's nothing else I can say to convince you, so I'm not even going to try.
You won't convince me on those points, no, but there is something you can say to try to convince me, and that would be going along with Zionite's suggestion:
Over the full duration of the game, it is the hardest thing to fake.
Words are the easiest thing to fake.
The more town that flip, and the more town reads that are obtained, the more useful looking at earlier game voting wagons is.
I support a full mass claim, and trying to solve the game today.
If we lynch town today without lynching scum as well, the game is almost certainly over.
As I am 100% convinced that one of Manders or Zionite is scum, I think Zionite hammering Manders is the optimal play today - either she is town, and takes Zionite with her, or she is scum, and dies.
Then tomorrow, we have an actual scum flip to analyse and break down to look at interactions and hopefully finish off the game with.
The reason I claimed is because I can't prevent a kill from happening tonight - I can only die in place of someone. So it does not alter what the current state of the game is. Someone will still die at night unless there is a second full protective role, which is extremely unlikely.
So today is critical - we must lynch scum today.
This is not fearmongering, it's just a statement of fact.
You're missing details in the voting record, such as the players who can't/don't vote. Are they automatically town since they weren't on any mislynches?
I'm on the fence about you. Your prior post made me want to lynch you, this post put me back to being unsure. I don't presume to be able to read you like a book anymore. I suspect you've become like DeCoures, where the scum evidence is well-hidden by lots of townie-looking content. So I'm just not sure.
Regardless of other scum suspects, I still think GD is the right play today.
Vote: Ganderin Dan
Vox, I apologize if I've been rude. That's not my intention. But frankly, "handwaving" your poor arguments away is preferable to deconstructing them in detail, because it creates a huge distraction and often townie bickering ensues. As is evidenced by what just happened with you and Tom. I agree with you 100% that voting records and player interactions are the most powerful analysis tools, but you have to have a confirmed scum to work with. You have to be able to see how players behave differently towards town and scum. Just saying "at least one of the two living players on that wagon must be scum" isn't behavioral analysis, it's just playing the odds. It's called the gambler's fallacy. That doesn't mean you're wrong, but it's not compelling in any way. No one is going to be persuaded to vote that way because of it. Same thing with Tom's comment about your arguments relying on the assumption you're town. That's obvious to you, but it's not going to persuade anyone else? See what I'm getting at here?
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Anyone else notice that Voxx, someone who is second on my list of scum, and at least somewhere on Tom's radar, is pushing so hard for a two-for-one? Makes me believe Manders' claim is true, and he knows it so he's trying to get another townie that's been on him to hammer her, so he'll die.
@Tom: Between the new HonTour being announced with very little preparation time, and a second job, I've just seen all my spare time that caused me to replace into this game in the first place just... evaporate.
When I said I was going off of Kpaca's opinion, I was trusting his judgment as a better player and someone that had actually seen Greymon as town before. This was before I entered a catatonic state of apathy and somewhat necessary modgaming.
I think Voxxicus is town, but there's an ongoing game I can't reference.
I never trust faith with my trust funds
I keep it in a safe place *****, lump sum
Camera surveillance a bunch of ****ing stun guns
I'm a snare to the drum, burum-bum-bum
ganderin_dan is:
You are Jasper the dolphin- Town Actor
Actor: You cannot vote for anyone unless it would cause them to be lynched.
Hey it's Jasper, not even a rapper
Only on this beat to make my racks grow faster Got a TV show, so I guess I'm an actor
Pot head, half baked, lookin' like Chappelle
Rollin' up a blunt with that fire from hell
Still ignorant, still hit a *****
Wolf Gang, ******, so I still don't give a ****
Catch me in the back with Miley on my lap
Bong rips as I feel on that little ***** cat
Hah, ****** came through with a 9 bar real quick
Just for the *****es, little bit of money in my pocket
**** it, Wolf Gang
No. With the game silence I wasn't particularly motivated. But since it appears people haven't made up their minds about GD then I should get it done.
I'm curious as to why Ximbad is the next top pick after GDfor folks. As of post 596, my notes have only a couple strongly scummy posts from Ximbad, whereas I've several for Voxx.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
ganderin_dan (2): Ximbad, Zionite
No lynch (1): MandersHex
Not voting:
ganderin_dan
Tom88
Voxxicus
Kraj
greymon90210
With 8 rappers still alive, its 5 to lynch
LOL
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Do you mind pointing out a few specifics on why?
Post 619: Vox inquires "if Manders is scum who is scum with her?"
Post 643: Vox thinks both Manders and Ximbad are scummy but not both scum together.
Townies, especially inexperienced ones, very often fall into this kind of fallacious thinking. Viewing scum suspects as a group, and evaluating whether interactions between scum suspects make sense, is a very townie way of thinking. It's poor logic (which, combined with a plethora of scummy-looking actions, is why i say he's terrible) but it shows a townie thought process.
Further, I also see in post 664 he says "My primary method of analysis revolves around analyzing interactions after a flip occurs, but there's been extremely little voting or interactions in this game." This statement fits the behavior pattern I already identified, which leads me to believe it's genuine.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
And around post 700, kpaca gets to explaining to Vox why analyzing the interactions of players with unknown alignments is dumb.
*sigh* kpaca's a douche but I kinda miss him
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
I think the most probable scenario is that GD simply has an invisible vote. This would mean he never proved he couldn't actually vote, only that his votes don't show up on the vote count. This would explain why his hammer of Iso didn't show up on the vote count, why Iso died at L-1, and why Dork Knight died at L-1. This would also mean GD is lying scum, obviously. I think there's a fair behavior case to back up the role evidence as well.
So this plays out one of two ways:
1. We just lynch GD. 'Nuff said.
2. We lynch Manders and GD hammers. Manders seems high enough on most people's scum lists, and if she's lying scum then yay. If she's telling the truth, then GD dies so we get a 2-for-1 lynch. If GD fails to hammer, we lynch him. If they are both town, then we'd probably lose by lynching GD anyway so we're no worse off.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Since your reread is complete, would you mind throwing up a quick T/S list?
Hm, I have to disagree. It could also be a possibility that a scum Voxx wants to keep his lynch options open. You said yourself that a few players find manders scummy, so why would it not be advantageous for a scum Voxx to reserve the right to vote her?
I think a scum-team of Voxx, G_D, and Ximbad is most likely, but I'm more sure on G_D than the other two.
An invisible vote is something I never considered. I'm surprised G_D offered no rebuttal.
I'll let you sit and think a minute about the logic chain between lynching Manders and you dying.
At your request, yes I kinda do mind. And frankly I don't see a good reason to at this juncture.
A. What Voxx said: "I think Manders and Xim are both scummy but not scum together."
B. What Voxx could have said: "I think Manders and Xim are both scummy."
You're going to have to explain to me how A is keeping his options more open than B.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
All I'm saying is that you're quick to rule him out for reasons that may not be as sound as you think. He is still a possible mafia member.
My read on those posts is they are genuine and demonstrative of townie thinking, and strong enough to outweigh his more generically scummy posts. You disagree. OK.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
I feel like I have a couple potential connections I'd like to explore, and I want to re-examine the first few days in light of the town that have flipped.
I've had trouble getting invested in this game, but I'm only in two, now, and I should give this the attention it deserves, considering we're likely at LYLO.
Huge post should be forthcoming sometime this weekend. I just ask that we hold off until at least Sunday at Midnight to hammer G_D, or anyone else.
I think Manders and Kpaca are scum.
I'm less sure on the third slot, but given the mechanical dichotomy between ganderin_dan and greymon, I'm probably still okay with lynching g_d.
I actually can see Tom being scum as well, considering his three strongest scum reads were Reya, Iso, and myself - which I know all three of us are town.
But I'm more inclined to believe that he's just wrong, rather than scum.
I think Reya gave the vig weapon to scum last night.
I was roleblocked last night, and no one is claiming to have received it.
So today's lynch is extremely critical.
Manders pushing to No Lynch is extremely telling in light of that.
Also, Manders' wagon yesterday at its peak was:
MandersHex (4): Reya Cookiebringer, Iso, Voxxicus, Ximbad
Ximbad is at least possible scum - he was a very strong scum read of mine early, and it's possible that his buddies have simply been distancing themselves from him. But the first two on that wagon have both flipped confirmed town. I'm town.
And Kpaca pushed the wagon on Iso hard in opposition to the wagon on Manders.
Mander's claimed that she would kill whoever hammered her if she was lynched.
That could be analysed two different ways:
Either she is town, and telling the truth about her role - and therefore scum did not want to mislynch her, because it would require them killing themselves.
Or she is scum and lying, and scum didn't vote for her because... she is their scumbuddy.
Either way, that wagon stalling out when at least three out of the four on it were town is damning.
After looking Reya and his posts over, I think either Kpaca or Tom has the gun, and is scum.
I think Tom is misguided town.
Therefore I think Kpaca is scum. With a gun.
I think lynching him is the optimal move.
I think the scum team is Manders, Kpaca, and... probably ganderin_dan, I guess.
Although I can see Zionite fitting in that team better, mechanically, g_d makes more sense.
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I'm under the impression that we are waiting on you...
Also, can you explain the following further? I'm not fully understanding it:
I read through the game again.
That changes a few things in my thoughts, need to re-examine a couple things.
Going to do some wagon analysis of Dork Knight, Reya and Iso, since there's been at least a small wagon on each of them, and they have flipped town.
If anyone has the daykill knife, they need to speak up. Today is extrmemely likely to be LYLO, considering the hammer restrictions, and a day kill to extend the day would be amazing.
Possibly both.
Dork Knight (6): Yanni, Reya Cookiebringer, Knifehand1371, Iso, Voxxicus, MandersHex
Pretty basic wagon analysis.
There is zero chance that both are town. Zero.
Reya Cookiebringer (4): kpaca, Tom88, Iso, MandersHex
Manders hopping on another town flip.
And then here was the Manders wagon:
MandersHex (4): Reya Cookiebringer, Iso, Voxxicus, Ximbad
That wagon stalled out. Why? Because Kpaca pushed the Iso wagon, Tom and Zionite pushed the wagon on me, and Manders claimed Supersaint. I covered this briefly earlier, but I see her claim as being one of two things.
1.) She's town, and scum did not want to lynch her because almost everyone not lynching her was scum, and would die if they hammered.
2.) She's scum, and they piled on an alternative lynch instead - myself/Iso.
Here was the Iso wagon, for posterity's sake:
Iso (5): kpaca, Zionite, MandersHex, Tom88, Voxxicus
Zionite and Manders both on that. What a shock.
So, I propose this:
We lynch Manders, but force Zionite to be the 'hammer', or L-1 vote.
We will get one of three outcomes.
1) Manders is town, and Zionite (or maybe g_d?) dies.
2) Manders is scum, and we lynch a scum. Yay.
3) Zionite refuses to hammer, so we just lynch him instead.
I am convinced that at least one of Manders and Zionite is scum.
I think there is a pretty decent chance that Kpaca is scum.
I honestly haven't liked a single thing greymon has said or done this game, but also think ganderin_dan makes more sense to be scum mechanically. The problem is, that everyone thinks the same thing - including people that have to be scum.
That kind of unanimous opinion makes me kind of wary.
If there's a day kill out there, I want Ganderin_Dan shot.
And then I want Manders lynched, with Zionite being the hammer.
Vote: MandersHex
My scumdar really ping'd when he said what he did about whoever had the knife. It's been made very clear that whoever has the knife isn't going to say anything about it. Personally, I'm starting to believe he has it.
The only thing I can't figure out now is if he's bussing g_d, or if there really are two town non-voters in this game...
I'm mostly interested in what Manders has to say at this point.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Knifehand is now Zionite.
Look at this wagon.
I am town, I'll even claim in this post, since there's zero reason not to, as I think we're at LYLO.
I'm Frank Ocean, Town Bodyguard.
I die in place of someone else if they'd have died.
Night One, I targeted Iso, because he was my strongest town read, and seemed likely to get shot in the face if he was town.
Night Two, I targeted Tom, because he was universally considered town, and I thought he was the most likely NK target.
I was roleblocked Night Two.
With me being town, and Dork Knight flipping town, Manders and Zionite both being town would mean 7 of the 9 town in this game were involved with this wagon, and zero scum.
I do not think it is possible for a town player to be lynched on day one, with six votes on him, and three scum alive, and none of them be scum.
No chance. Zero.
Therefore, at least one of Manders and Knifehands (Zionite) is scum.
Here's the Reya wagon:
Reya Cookiebringer (4): kpaca, Tom88, Iso, MandersHex
Reya has flipped town, so it's worth analysing this. Iso has also flipped town. I think there's absolutely at least one scum pushing that wagon. I still think Tom is town, despite his reads being hilariously bad (his scum reads were me, Iso and Reya, all of who are town).
So at least one of Kpaca and Manders is scum. Possibly both!
So the next wagon of note was the Manders wagon:
MandersHex (4): Reya Cookiebringer, Iso, Voxxicus, Ximbad
The first three people on this wagon were all town. Ximbad is an unknown - I wanted him dead the first two days, but there have been a couple posts more recently that have me more willing to accept he might be town. Or at least, I think Manders, Zionite, and Kpaca are all more likely scum than him at this juncture.
I also covered in my previous post why this wagon stalled out.
Her claim.
No matter her alignment, I don't think scum were going to lynch her at that point, either because there were a ton of town voting for her, and they'd probably have to hammer (and be killed), or because, y'know - she was scum, and they weren't going to hammer her, when they could mislynch Iso or me instead.
That brings us tot the last wagon worth analysing:
Iso (5): kpaca, Zionite, MandersHex, Tom88, Voxxicus
This is the wagon that Kpaca pushed in opposition to the Manders lynch. I freely admit that I let myself be talked into a bad lynch that I was against on day one, because Iso kind of imploded, and made a weird claim (that he botched). But the first three people on this wagon look bad with him flipping town. Like, bad to the point that I absolutely think we have two scum in that group of three players.
I'm torn between ganderin_dan and greymon, though. I don't really like either of them.
If I had a day kill, I think I'd shoot Zionite at this point. If he flipped town, I'd lynch the ever-living hell out of Manders. If he flipped scum, I'd still probably lynch Manders, but ganderin_dan would be acceptable as well.
Kpaca and Kraj both trying to dismiss my analysis as terrible and dumb is frankly ticking me off, and I need to be careful that I'm not letting that interfere with my read on that slot. Identifying town, and using behavioral analysis to look back on earlier interactions involving them, specifically with voting analysis is a very strong method of analysis, that is difficult for scum to defend against.
So just trying to discredit me or dismiss it as a method of analysis is the usual course of action.
With 8 people alive, here is my ranking of the remaining players, from most likely scum to least:
MandersHex
Zionite
Ganderin_Dan
Kraj
Ximbad
Greymon
Tom
Voxxicus
I would also like to hear from manders as well. I could be persuaded to vote her depending on her response, but I'm worried about the supersaint backfiring on us and ending the game. At this point I feel like G_D or Kraj are the better lynches.
I still think a No Lynch could be fruitful for us, but I can't do it on my own, and you guys disagree, so whatever.
Unvote
You can volunteer to be the target without fishing for someone to claim.
Oh, I must have missed that. That's possible, yes. It could, also, be the actual role you have, so I like how you throw in "hypothetical" to your sentence.
Like Zionite said, he's made his case on you very clear from D1 when you were Zelderex. Dismissing it in this fashion just looks terrible.
This is a good observation that I missed.
Wait, what? I'm high on Voxxicus' scum list, but who else? You yourself have stated you think I'm town, so why would you say this out of nowhere?
Telling how? How would a no lynch be beneficial to scum?
This is incorrect. It's a very small chance and unlikely, but there most definitely is a chance.
The wagon died because it was based on Iso pushing it for stupid reasons that he couldn't even explain. At the time, I believed kpaca pushed the wagon on Iso because he saw through his bull**** case and believed Iso was scum making a bull**** case, but Kraj's previous statement that I'm high enough on most people's t/s lists that I should be lynched, even though he's said he thinks I'm town, really, really bothers me. Luckily, I have some experience with Kraj as scum (Joss Whedon Mafia), so I need to think back on how he acted then (though I was still new to the game and, frankly, spent the entire game completely confused and in awe of all of the veterans in it.)
Explain this, because he seems to be reading just fine, and this reads as a terrible pot shot.
I believe this claim, though it makes even less sense for you to breadcrumb like you did D2. A bodyguard WANTS to die via their ability because it means they did their job. They don't want to ANNOUNCE to scum they have a power role and get themselves killed.
Dude, it's happened before, and will happen again, I'm sure. There is ALWAYS a chance of ANYTHING happening. You can't just dismiss something because it's unlikely OR illogical. That's setting yourself up for failure.
Not one person has provided any type of behavioral analysis on me, yet you're willing to go along with it?
The supersaint claim WILL backfire on you, and, if scum play it right, is highly likely to end the game with a scum victory. Call it fearmongering if you want, but it absolutely IS something to consider.
As of right now, I'm open to lynch g_d or Kraj. Voxxicus is misguided town. Ximbad feels town, but a small part of my gut tells me I'm wrong. Zionite could be scum, too, but I ALWAYS think Zionite is scum, so I'm being cautious with him. Tom, as he has all game, reads town to me. Greymon also reads town and his frustration at being castrated is real. He WANTS to participate in the voting aspect, but can't, and it's getting to him. That seems to me to be a town mindset, especially since it's progressively gotten worse the closer we get to a scum victory.
Top three for scum, to me, are g_d, Kraj, and Ximbad. Ximbad could be replaced by Zionite. I'm confident the rest are town.
Vote: ganderin_dan
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UGH THANK YOU. I love playing mafia, and I've been friends with Pinkfloyd on here for a long time, but this game has been driving me insane. I know I've been modgaming about the two non-voters for the majority of the game, but it's all I've had to go on, and I can't even prove it!
I knew when Pinkfloyd messaged me my role PM and told me I was the Town Lesbian, I was gonna be in for a frustrating game...
Quick side note though, I do have a renewed love for flannel and Justin Bieber though :/
I was going off of the fact that you were forced to claim. Looking at the actual vote count, half the people who were voting you are dead now.
You mean in one of my earliest posts when I said you were "probably" town based on the one post of relevance you had made in the first couple hundred posts of the game? Cuz I don't believe I've said a word since about thinking you're town.
I notice you don't say anything at all about my suggestion of forcing GD to hammer you so that you can kill him, even though he's your lynch pick. If you're willing to consider an unusual play like a no lynch, why not even discuss the possibility of allowing yourself to die and take GD with you?
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Back to this thing.
I think we have scum narrowed down further by looking at g_d vs. greymon. That said, I'm pretty much waiting on g_d to finish up his T/S list stuff.
I'm for focusing on Vox/Zio/Manders tomorrow.
LOL
So, what are your thoughts now, then?
I haven't seen you say anything to make me think you were thinking otherwise, so it's concerning to see you just switch for apparently no reason.
It's more risky than if we no lynched. If we're wrong and both g_d and I are town, then I truly believe the scum will have won. And I have to accept the possibility that I could be wrong about him.
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G_d, on the other hand, seems scummy, for the reasons people have said. Says he can hammer, but fails to hammer twice. Kraj makes a great point about the possibility of his vote being invisible; it would explain a lot.
Upon reviewing everything I'm pretty convinced g_d is the mafia member here, not greymon.
This... and I'm getting tired of waiting for an answer to my question as well as a finished up T/S list.
Vote: ganderin_dan
Uh.
No ****?
Of course I'm going to mark myself as town when I do my analysis, the analysis would be worthless otherwise.
I also claimed, which I notice you completely ignored.
At least one of Manders and Zionite is scum.
We should force Zionite to hammer Manders.
Manders trying to handwave away the analysis as 'BUT THERE COULD BE SIX TOWN VOTING FOR ANOTHER TOWN, AND NO SCUM INVOLVED IN THE MISLYNCH' actually makes me think there's a reasonable chance that both she and Zionite are scum.
I challenge anyone to find a mislynch on day one of a Mini that had at least six people voting for a town member, with none of them non-town.
I strongly doubt you'll find one.
Saying that zionite and/or manders is scum because the rest of the people that were on the DK wagon are confirmed town is false, because there is one person on that wagon besides them that is not confirmed town. That person is you.
Maybe you'll pull your head out of your ass and consider that you have been horrifically wrong all game, but I have my doubts.
Your scum reads were Iso, Reya, and myself.
Two of them have flipped town - maybe that should tell you something, christ.
You won't convince me on those points, no, but there is something you can say to try to convince me, and that would be going along with Zionite's suggestion:
Over the full duration of the game, it is the hardest thing to fake.
Words are the easiest thing to fake.
The more town that flip, and the more town reads that are obtained, the more useful looking at earlier game voting wagons is.
I support a full mass claim, and trying to solve the game today.
If we lynch town today without lynching scum as well, the game is almost certainly over.
As I am 100% convinced that one of Manders or Zionite is scum, I think Zionite hammering Manders is the optimal play today - either she is town, and takes Zionite with her, or she is scum, and dies.
Then tomorrow, we have an actual scum flip to analyse and break down to look at interactions and hopefully finish off the game with.
The reason I claimed is because I can't prevent a kill from happening tonight - I can only die in place of someone. So it does not alter what the current state of the game is. Someone will still die at night unless there is a second full protective role, which is extremely unlikely.
So today is critical - we must lynch scum today.
This is not fearmongering, it's just a statement of fact.
I'm on the fence about you. Your prior post made me want to lynch you, this post put me back to being unsure. I don't presume to be able to read you like a book anymore. I suspect you've become like DeCoures, where the scum evidence is well-hidden by lots of townie-looking content. So I'm just not sure.
Regardless of other scum suspects, I still think GD is the right play today.
Vote: Ganderin Dan
Vox, I apologize if I've been rude. That's not my intention. But frankly, "handwaving" your poor arguments away is preferable to deconstructing them in detail, because it creates a huge distraction and often townie bickering ensues. As is evidenced by what just happened with you and Tom. I agree with you 100% that voting records and player interactions are the most powerful analysis tools, but you have to have a confirmed scum to work with. You have to be able to see how players behave differently towards town and scum. Just saying "at least one of the two living players on that wagon must be scum" isn't behavioral analysis, it's just playing the odds. It's called the gambler's fallacy. That doesn't mean you're wrong, but it's not compelling in any way. No one is going to be persuaded to vote that way because of it. Same thing with Tom's comment about your arguments relying on the assumption you're town. That's obvious to you, but it's not going to persuade anyone else? See what I'm getting at here?
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Red Dwarf Mafia, just off the top of my head. I was lynched by only town. It can and has happened.
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Two-for-ones are very bad right now imo.
You think I'm scum.
He thinks I'm scum.
@Tom: Between the new HonTour being announced with very little preparation time, and a second job, I've just seen all my spare time that caused me to replace into this game in the first place just... evaporate.
When I said I was going off of Kpaca's opinion, I was trusting his judgment as a better player and someone that had actually seen Greymon as town before. This was before I entered a catatonic state of apathy and somewhat necessary modgaming.
I think Voxxicus is town, but there's an ongoing game I can't reference.
That's a lynch! Lynch scene up next, please stop posting!
Vote count:
ganderin_dan (4): Ximbad, Zionite, MandersHex, Tom88
MandersHex (1): Voxxicus
Not voting:
ganderin_dan
Voxxicus
Kraj
greymon90210
With 8 rappers still alive, its 5 to lynch
LOL
I never trust faith with my trust funds
I keep it in a safe place *****, lump sum
Camera surveillance a bunch of ****ing stun guns
I'm a snare to the drum, burum-bum-bum
ganderin_dan is:
Actor: You cannot vote for anyone unless it would cause them to be lynched.
Hey it's Jasper, not even a rapper
Only on this beat to make my racks grow faster
Got a TV show, so I guess I'm an actor
Pot head, half baked, lookin' like Chappelle
Rollin' up a blunt with that fire from hell
Still ignorant, still hit a *****
Wolf Gang, ******, so I still don't give a ****
Catch me in the back with Miley on my lap
Bong rips as I feel on that little ***** cat
Hah, ****** came through with a 9 bar real quick
Just for the *****es, little bit of money in my pocket
**** it, Wolf Gang
NSFW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzi24Nssiow
You win when the mafia is eliminated
Please make a decision on your night actions ASAP and remember that we go into the night with 7 players alive.
LOL