The only good part about this situation is that I only have to look at 6 people, and two of them are mafia. I'm 33% just throwing a dart.
Everyone gets a bio!
Some of these are going to take a lot longer than others. I think I'm starting with the easy ones.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Okay Shoushiling does match Wisp's behavior here for Proph's change of heart. Not seeing how Throne room is relevant here though to your meta review, can you go into what you gleaned from that one?
ohh god that did not help me like you at all. jesus
lol
My recent scum games have been embarrassing but people still give me some respect as a scum player. If my town game was anywhere close to decent I'd have turned into the easiest read on this site. Instead I'm bad at both barring an occasional outlier like Tarot mafia where I was randomly a god.
Bringing up the rear of the post-count, we have...Cantripmancer! With a whopping 12 posts so far (11 on D1). My starting assumption is that this is bad.
It is bad for two reasons: (1) Lurking is bad. But also (2) in this particular game, Osie had a lot of heat for a lot of the day and it never really went away. This is a situation that the Mafia would be fairly happy about, and (usually) hope to maintain. Not impossible for one of them to assume the White Knight position and strongly defend the wrongly accused (i.e. the Proph. gambit theory), but probably less likely than just being okay with the status quo. So, I'm reviewing Cantrip with that in mind and looking at how his posts would fit that hypothesis.
On the positive side, with his 11 posts, Cantrip did not spend a lot of them on meaningless fluff. First post was reasonably comprehensive, giving a thought on every player.
On Osie, he has Town-leaning, because he is a sucker for high posters (not unreasonable) and also suspects who he is and that he's in his town meta (kind of whatever, and apparently he was wrong about who he thought Osie was). On DV he just says: "I hate reading DV. Scumlean" which I don't understand.
He has mild Town leans on both Killjoy and DoTA, that I don't love for the stated reasons. On Killjoy appears to be another meta read and thinks he's showing his "town paranoid" self. On DoTa he says he thinks he's been trying to solve, and showed insight into Killjoy's mindset. I'll note here that DoTA was voting for Crossbell at this moment who appeared to be top town for Cantrip. Cantrip doesn't address that.
Mild townlean for Wisp because he feels Wisp is posting in a "careless" manner that would be harder for scum Wisp to fake. I probably disagree.
Grape and myself are both "Null" at this point. Grape because he has positive and Negative thoughts. Me because I haven't posted much.
Top scum is Proph at the beginning. I don't really have an issue with his early basis here, but I do have a small issue with the fact that this read - while mentioned a couple times - is never really argued. After his 1st post, Cantrip does not question Proph. Proph responds to him and seems to want to engage, but Cantrip kind of doesn't.
The worst part of Cantrip is that he just wasn't around. He voted Proph in his first post of the day and left it there the entire day - even though in his last post of the day he said it was actually feeling more like Town!Proph to him. He made many excuses for being busy/internet troubles. Basically hasn't really played yet, with no strong opinions expressed. And though he supposedly had Osie as a town-read, he most definitely did not attempt to defend him, or argue against his elimination. And that's certainly a possible scum play - i.e. say you think the Town is Town, but then sit back and watch while he's voted out and not do anything to try and stop it or suggest someone else.
I do like some of his smaller posts here and there. He makes some reasonable points when he's making points. He's just not doing it enough. Which means there's nothing here that I can grab onto and say "oh yeah, this guy's Town." His Town read of Osie and the end of day in particular (or lack of it, as the case may be) is a little worse looking. As is his lack of engagement with his supposed top suspect.
Verdict: Still in the pile.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Looking forward to Axel eventually getting to my bio and Wisp's. (Apologies in advance for all of the reading you'll have to do)
@Grape - Thanks, I'll check them out when I have some time. I hosted Modern and completely forgot it LOL
Quote from Grapefruit21 »
Okay Shoushiling does match Wisp's behavior here for Proph's change of heart. Not seeing how Throne room is relevant here though to your meta review, can you go into what you gleaned from that one?
Was mostly looking for examples of Wisp holding onto his vote or not voting people as town until late Day 1. Both Shousling and Throne Room fit those examples. From there I began rereading Wisp's early posts and stepped into the shoes of him as town, and the rest is history.
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I thoroughly enjoyed read Axel's Cantrip analysis. I hope he goes into similar depth for most of the other players in the game. I'm not joking though - I think if we just shoot a triple barreled gun at Cantrip, DoTA, and Killjoy, the game most likely ends in a town victory or we end up in xylo. I can't meaningfully advance the gamestate until everyone is on the same page.
Axel's point regarding Cantrip not really attempting to engage with me, despite saying that I was scum early, is a good one. Another thing that caught my attention was how he never unvoted me despite saying that I was likely town with his last post of Day 1.
Him saying that he never defended Osie despite townreading him is also a good point. My issue with all of these points though is that they can ultimately be explained by Cantrip having activity problems, which is why lurking is bad as town and even worse as scum - because when push comes to shove, there's no way to defend yourself.
I think I'm fine-ish with Grape since he is at least posting, and some of his posts I can see coming from a town mindset (him seeing how Wisp can come to the conclusion that he is a frozen wolf, minding that Wisp is misrepresenting him, him mentioning Wisp on his first post of Day 2 as being weird when I think most scum would be content to write him off as town).
Wisp wasn't town in Throne room though? Wasn't he a weird non town role? I never read the whole game and remain confused by it. But I'm fairly certain he wasn't town and that was part of his anger at being 3rd party in RotE when I hosted it.
TOWN
Poison-Chan r. Rhand...............................Jugson, Town 2-shot Doctor Tom Riddle, Town Riddle
ZDS...............................Avery, Town 1-shot Gravedigger
xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx...............................Crabbe Sr, Town Vanilla
shadowlancerx r. Konan...............................Gibbon, Town Vanilla
Lastwhisper...............................Tom Riddle Lord Voldemort, Town Riddle (and the Greatest of ALL TIME!)
Killjoy r. deadbananas...............................Lucius Malfoy, Town IC/Upgrader
Rodemy...............................Antonin Dolohov, Town Self-Watcher
TerRaine...............................Peter Pettigrew, Town Protective Bookie
Ampharos...............................Goyle Sr, Town Mason
kpaca r. Starling...............................Draco Malfoy, Town Ascetic
Jackrito...............................Bellatrix Lestrange, Town Manipulator
Slothful...............................Augustus Rookwood, Town Cop
gooLagoon...............................Barty Crouch Jr, Town Aggressor
3RD PARTY SOLO
Axelrod...............................Severus Snape, Angel
3RD PARTY TEAM
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry...............................Amycus Carrow, SK Godfather + Bulletproof
fontisian...............................Alecto Carrow, SK Poisoner
SCUM
Tubba Fett...............................Tom Riddle, Mafia Riddle
tomsloger...............................Nott, Mafia False Mason
Fuwa r. orangeandblack5...............................Walden Macnair, Mafia Fangless Godfather Vanilla
Zionite r. Trisscar...............................Corban Yaxley, Mafia Mod-Poster Tom Riddle, Mafia Riddle[/center]
I'm just gonna blatantly copy Axel and ISO Cantrip first because 12 posts.
Cantrip seems at first glance to not be putting as much thought into his reads as I'm used to. 151 is obviously fairly shallow. Particularly his scumlean of DV. He says he hates reading DV, which I interpret as he thought a lot/everything DV was doing was scummy... but there's no specifics. Cantrip is the type of player who would have specific reasons for disliking someone generally, and his choice not to specify those reasons in his list here doesn't actually make a whole lot of sense to me. Actually there's a second possible meaning to "I hate reading DV" and that's that he just dislikes trying to discern his alignment... but then the Scumlean comes out of nowhere and still has no stated reasons. Note: He says of DotA: Townlean for insight into my play.
In 241 is progression on his DotA read. It's notable because it's kinda just a reaction to DotA's vote on Cross, but contradicts Proph's read on the same vote. Cantrip seems to come down on it being a townie post from DotA.
In 245, he says "It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ." @Cantrip: What games have I been scum against you? I can't remember.
It's entirely possible this read is actually fake in order to placate Proph here. This kinda makes me think that Proph and Cantrip are unaligned, because Cantrip probably doesn't make a potentially demonstrably false statement like this to placate his buddy during theatre.
Note: he (possibly jokingly) claims that DV might be town for, I assume, a natural sounding post 178.
In 265: "That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T." This feels nitpicky, His point wrt DotA is that is doesn't mesh with DotA's assertion that Axel and Crossbell potentially weren't actually trying to figure each other out (which implies that they are buddies performing theatre) but Cantrip has issues with the way DotA worded his argument, acting as if DotA contradicted himself when he really didn't. I'm not sure there's a remarkable difference between asking if Axel and Cross were buddies and saying DotA didn't think it's T/T, or even a difference between asking if it's T/W or W/W.
In conclusion: I'm actually thinking he might be a wolf here, because I'm not seeing the extensive probing I'm used to, and specfically I'm not seeing thoughtful Cantrip I'm used to seeing. I don't think this is time constraints, I think it's just Cantrip acting abnormal.
Coloring added to seperate quotes from my thoughts.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Killjoy have you ever thought of trying to figure out what makes someone townie, rather than what makes people wolfie?
This his absolutely nothing to do with your Cantrip wall, it's just a thought. I do agree that it's possible this less of a time constraint and maybe an alignment problem. I can't really say anything about the other statements since I am at work, but I will look into it.
Killjoy have you ever thought of trying to figure out what makes someone townie, rather than what makes people wolfie?
This his absolutely nothing to do with your Cantrip wall, it's just a thought. I do agree that it's possible this less of a time constraint and maybe an alignment problem. I can't really say anything about the other statements since I am at work, but I will look into it.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I mean playing with you as a whole is unreliable, so meh? It's easier to tell urself why someone is town, then to tell yourself why they are wolf. But sure that's just my opinion
16 D1 posts, so, same logic applies here as to Cantrip's low post count.
First post is random RVS vote, fine.
He then starts in on Crossbell, and it's, also fine? He points out that Osie (and now I'm deciding I'm just going to say "Osie" from here on out because it's easier than "Crossbell") didn't really interact with me before casting his "serious" vote, and asks if other people's posts commenting on my "meta" have had any effect on this read. He doesn't care for Osie's explanation and then votes him in #139. I have no issues here. I thought fair points were made.
He then spends some time justifying a read in which he says he feels like - due to Osie and my interactions - we probably aren't a T/T pair, but either T/W or W/W pair. I don't quite follow the logic process here (he says, knowing it is incorrect). Seems like what he's saying is that we talked to each other for a bunch of posts, but in a way that didn't advance the game or that would help us figure each other out. This is kind of true, though it ignores the context, which primarily was me (1) thinking I had it figured out who Osie was, followed by (2) Osie implying it wasn't him, and (3) me (jokingly) going off on why he should have been the person I thought he was (who he actually was, but he was still trying to be deceptive about it.)
I guess I don't have all that much problem with this either. Two people making a lot of not-directly-game related posts in a row can look wrong, even if it is still very early in the game. Though his logic is off that it can't be T/T who do this (and he didn't say "can't" just that his "gut" said not T/T). I mean, the fact that one Town can do it ought to make it self-evident that two Town can. Regardless, I don't find it suspicious.
I also can't really fault him for poking at Osie, as I was doing pretty much the same thing. And it doesn't feel like he's piggybacking or bandwaggoning here.
DoTA promises some thoughts on other people in #306, and then, after some further prodding (from Proph - which looks good on him) finally gives some more thoughts in #437.
Grape - Think he's Town. Because he doesn't get "scum vibes" from his posts.
Wisp - Having a hard time reading. Maybe a little less volatile than he remembers Town-Wisp being. Just below null.
DV - Feels like antagonistic Town
Cantrip - Not a lot of posts, but every one has content. Thinks Cantrip is trying to figure out the game.
Proph - Also has a hard time reading. Thinks Proph/Wisp/Osie spend a lot of time talking to each other. Paranoia about scum deciding to go for top posters together.
Killjoy - Had an early Town read but now questioning. Because he has a bad post/content ratio.
Aaaaaannnnd, these are shallow, but okay? Nothing controversial here or beyond scum-range, but nothing sticks out as suspicious either.
He unvotes Osie when GJ replaces in, (#470, 7/2), but he is not impressed with GJ's posts and re-votes 2 posts later (#592, 7/5). I don't have issues with the vote here as such either. It was deadline time and a choice needed to be made. Osie was his top pick before, and GJ didn't move the needle enough (or at all?)
The worst thing about all this is his simple lack of presence. Similar to Cantrip, DoTA just was not around much on D1. He used the timezone difference as an excuse at least once. And then maybe work/business. But he's barely played. So, it's certainly possible he's coasting scum. But that said, I don't have too many issues with anything specific he's actually posted. Most of it reads fine, and I can even agree with a lot of it.
Verdict: Above Cantrip!
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Worked through the first few pages, haven't had time to properly organise all my thoughts so I'm just posting the notes I made while reading.
The TLDR is: Last and Cantrip are at the bottom of my T/S list by the end of page 5, KJ looking better in retrospect of this.
Post 151 Cantripmancer -
Town read of Crossbell/Osie seems a bit light. Grape calls this out in 152.
Response in post 236
The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.
Leaning heavily on a meta read of Cross even while uncertain on who the alt is. Slightly contradictory statement here.
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Killjoy read also light. Calls KJ paranoid TownKJ for post 150 but there’s no paranoia there, just a question to DV
Hey DV, I'd like to know why you think Crossbell potentially has inside info for what is obviously a reaction to Proph's play? That post is obviously "Proph is town [based on something unsaid as of yet] but you jumped straight to inside info/discrediting. What gives there?
Proph asks about this in post 166.
Response in post 245:
It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
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Has a townread on me for trying to solve, especially for my insight into KJ, but doesn’t mention my Cross/Osie analysis/vote from post 139. “Insight into KJ” was just me pointing out that KJ saw something I didn’t in the early RVS posts (possible distancing) and wouldn’t mention it as scum. This is speculation on my part, townlean not solid townread. Would make more sense to have pointed out Cross vote imo.
Mentions my Cross post/vote in post 241, but hadn’t really posted anything in between 151 and 241. Still think it should have come up in his catch up post in 151 as it forms part of his townread of me.
Post 155 Crossbell/Osie -
Axel-Cantrip
Axel-DoTA X
Axel-DV X
Axel-KJ
Axel-Wisp
Cantrip-DoTA X
Cantrip-DV X
DoTA-DV X
DV-Grape X
Grape-KJ
KJ-Wisp
After removing townreads, ends up with:
Axel-DoTA
Axel-DV
DoTA-DV
Three impossible teams, DV flipped town and I know my alignment. Definite scum in his early townreads...
Post 156 Lastwhisper -
Calls Osie’s townlean on Proph a stretch. Last line stands out
Maybe if Proph finds a wolf lean that's not me, that I can evaluate, I might think about moving him up
Post 183 Lastwhisper -
Similar to post 156 above, asks Proph to talk to him when he has a scum read on someone other than him, throws out a townread on DV. Looking back, previous DV mentions from Wisp to this point:
Quote from Post 29 »
Quote from D_V »
If I die tonight snap vote wisp out of the game thanks.
That's all I got so far.
ya that's fair game too, lol
didn't realize you were in this game
hmm, hard debate on which of you I would kill first
Quote from Post 55 »
(answer to a question from DV)
Lastwhisper is an outdated name anyways. I am Wisp or Wiisp on almost every site nowadays
Quote from Post 72 »
DV
Axel
Grape
Everyone else
Proph
Cross
DV is top townread without any mention to date?
Quote from Post 75 »
DV - might still be a wolf, but I am mind-melding with his thought process, I think he is decent enough at pushing an agenda, but I don't think this is how he approaches it as a wolf. Overall I think he is veeeeery likely to be town
Might still be a wolf? Hasn’t said anything about a read on DV to this point. Claims to be mindmelding with DV but keeping options open?
This is the next mention of DV here in 183 “still probably not DV”
Looking for further info.
Post 191 DV -
Suspects Lastwhisper might be trying to pocket him
Post 230 Lastwhisper -
@Proph
I would probably see myself voting Dota, as it stands at the moment
not that I necessarily have a read on KJ or Grape, but I think its correct to vote in the lower posters, then trying to figure out if consistent posters are being malicious
I can pull out reasons to like, as well as hate you, but that's mostly tone, and I know how much u hate tonal reads
the same goes for Crossbell, but on a macro level, the reasons to town lean him, heavily outweigh the reasons to wolf read him
I can also pull out reasons to like DV/Axel
which leaves a PoE of Cantrip/KJ/Grape/Dota
I am hoping I can lower that PoE more so as day 1 goes on
also I agree that we shouldn't be putting people to L2
but at the same time, its been stated several times that Cross is at L2, so any new vote isn't really "blissful ignorance", at this point
well actually he should be L3 now, since one of the voters was DV
I am curious to see how Dota re-evaluates Crossbell
No solid reads on anyone, can go either way on most. “Can also pull out reasons to like DV/Axel” Strange way to talk about his top two townreads from 60 posts back with nothing indicating a change of heart in between.
Mentions a Cantrip/KJ/Grape/DoTA PoE.
Cross/Osie in post 98:
the other mafia team member I suspect to be one of KJ/Cantrip/Archon.
DV in post 194:
0 - 2 scum exist in Dota, KJ, Grape and Cantrip. Conclusion Dota, KJ, Grape and Cantrip are a better place to vote out right now. Not sure where to point though.
Keeping options open to see which way the wind blows with the now confirmed two townies?
Posts 231 and 235 Prophylaxis -
Meta checked and re-ISO’s Wisp, moves from scumread to townlean. Likes post 230 from Wisp but as above, 230 looks very non-committal to me.
Post 250 Crossbell -
Notes to refer back to Wisp’s 230 at a later point. (looking for follow up on this)
Wait are u using now confirmed flips, to argue I was keeping my options open? KJ voted a town, and his PoE of me/DV, has two town in it. That is irrelevant. Like sure its badish, I poked at KJ for that, but like its not really anything.
and honestly, i'd rather be non-commital trying to work with everyone trying to figure this game out, than spend the entirety of day 1, hammering on a townie, who you helped flip, never trying to understand their thought process, while making like 3 half-way decent posts.
This site has a completely different playstyle for me, especially when you remove a lot of the playerbase who actually is consistently here on a day to day basis, whom I can talk to.
Proph probably has the most reasons to be voted, I think? and Osie was hated by almost everyone, which I don't hate, cause ya the scum reads against him were justified from an analytical point of view, but based off his flip, that's clearly irrelevant. But Proph handling of EoD trumps any of the inconsistencies in his ISO, just like it did with GJ/Osie.
Out of 3/4 low posters, who have made some kind of PBAP today, Axel's is by far the most natural, given he isn't doing the iso trying to find a wolf, but to naturally evaluate someone.
Looking forward to Axel posting his thoughts on Killjoy, because he is someone I have many mixed feelings about.
I will do stuff with this game probably tomorrow night. Still just mostly waiting for the collective PoE to post. I know I've been mostly coasting this day phase.
Looking forward to Axel posting his thoughts on Killjoy, because he is someone I have many mixed feelings about.
I will do stuff with this game probably tomorrow night. Still just mostly waiting for the collective PoE to post. I know I've been mostly coasting this day phase.
well we need to sort them, one of us is probably dying, I do not want to either of us dying today, because its going to be a very stagnant rest of the game, unless you are a wolf, which while I still have those fears, I am not worrying about it right, since I think you overall play and attitude is townie.
problem is I am a real time solver, even if I suck at evaluating real time, its still better for evaluation. Like who knows when dota will respond to my posts.
People act like I'm some unreadable enigma, but it's not very hard to read me I think?
If I actually care about the game, I'm town. If it looks like I'm going through the motions, I'm scum.
I much prefer being town to being scum and I think my play reflects that.
I am going to sleep with this quote from another game, honestly I really don't know how strongly this holds for Proph anymore, I guess this game will be the do or die of this meta, but it certainly means a lot for me.
@Proph
Why do u think DV died last night? and not me or you? Reading other games, I think I might be seeing differences between your town and wolf game that aren't just "investment" reads.
I am including you in my reread, cause I want to take a look at some of your mannerisms. Actually here is a question, Why do you think "I" should see you as town here? I guess we will see how serious I am in regards to fencesitting on you once I get to placing other players in this game.
I think I will start with this.
I think Killjoy is just not all there, and not in a malicious lurking mafia way, but in a, "playing his own game, sometimes reading the game entirely in correct." I also just don't think wolf!killjoy, votes GJ like that?
@DOta
I think this is irrelevant, and I can't even remember if I answered it after the first 5 pages, but DV was a town read because of his general attitude, and the way he was handling his reads. I literally just got out of game, with DV as my partner, and his posts were dumb. I faltered for a second at EoD, because I was convinced the wolves were in Killjoy/Grape, and DV calling a lack of self-preservation townie, just felt partner to Grape.
So, I know it’s been a really busy week for many of us, definitely has been on my end, so I’m not going to throw stones with regards to diminished activity during this week. It's been a time.
That said, I’m really hoping we can use this weekend to get things back on track and for everyone to get caught up and contributing. Again, no stones thrown, I still have yet to update the front page, but let's get it going come the weekend through Thursday. Sound good?
well we need to sort them, one of us is probably dying, I do not want to either of us dying today, because its going to be a very stagnant rest of the game, unless you are a wolf, which while I still have those fears, I am not worrying about it right, since I think you overall play and attitude is townie.
problem is I am a real time solver, even if I suck at evaluating real time, its still better for evaluation. Like who knows when dota will respond to my posts.
or the when Cantrip will even post.
I mean, I am always generally available for real-time. Just let me know when you're on and we can try to hash this gamestate out together. I just haven't been doing much hard rereading because 1) I want to wait for Cantrip/KJ/DoTA to post more content, and 2) I got some real life ***** to deal with.
Quote from Wisp »
I am going to sleep with this quote from another game, honestly I really don't know how strongly this holds for Proph anymore, I guess this game will be the do or die of this meta, but it certainly means a lot for me.
Why do u think DV died last night? and not me or you? Reading other games, I think I might be seeing differences between your town and wolf game that aren't just "investment" reads.
I am including you in my reread, cause I want to take a look at some of your mannerisms. Actually here is a question, Why do you think "I" should see you as town here? I guess we will see how serious I am in regards to fencesitting on you once I get to placing other players in this game.
I think that quote still generally holds true with the exception of Darling, where I was very invested due to our great scumteam. IMO, my Day 1 is out of my wolf range - I just don't act like how I did towards DV if I was a wolf. I would have tried to placate him rather than continuously argue with him, I think. In addition, I know I bus my teammates and defend townies as scum, but I would have not stuck my head out to defend GJ how I did if I was a wolf. I would have let him be mislunched and then would have advocated to kill you at night, Wisp. My town game has various strengths and weaknesses, but one thing that has always been a constant is my ability to identify low-hanging fruit townies as town. I am very good at that one specific thing. I just decided to follow Chloe's example from Darling and tried to apply it to this game, which was vigorously defending my townreads so that scum couldn't mislunch them. Obviously my attempt failed, but at least I /tried/ and didn't succumb to self doubt.
I think DV died because there's a decent chance that he was on the money with his legacy guess, and he wasn't going to be mislunched any time soon. No one was really actively scumreading him besides me, and I even said that I thought he was town in my gun-to-head read at EoD. I think the reason why neither you nor I died last Night is because we are both really polarizing players.
Quote from Wisp »
I think I will start with this.
I think Killjoy is just not all there, and not in a malicious lurking mafia way, but in a, "playing his own game, sometimes reading the game entirely in correct." I also just don't think wolf!killjoy, votes GJ like that?
My issue with KJ continues to be that everyone else has better reasons to be town than him. He can't be read due to his activity, sure, but I am really struggling to remember a notable thing KJ has done to impact the gamestate. He's just been There, and has tried some attempts at solving, but nothing IMO that is unfakeable. This is why I want to hear Axel's hard PBPA of Killjoy, because he is better at doing that than I am, and an additional perspective would be helpful. Like I said earlier, I find micro reasons to like him but his macro play overall has been horrid.
I'll be around more Saturday/Sunday, and I see that KJ/DoTA have posted bigger posts that I'll try to read closely then. Just acknowledging that I am coasting/being complacent right now because I want more people from the PoE to post + dealing with some RL stuff.
Still like outposting 90% of the game even when I'm lazy so w.e.
Grape is my next dive, and right now this is mostly on what I remember. I liked his early thoughts, I thought they were really good in how he wrote them, and it didn't really feel like a wolf faking content. and again I also think how he handled Crossbell just doesn't make sense from a wolf, but just like with killjoy, trying to find wolves using the method of, "Why would a wolf do this", is heavily garnished in wine, but a micro read none the less. I also think from a meta perspective, how he played EoD, just doesn't come off as how I expect wolf grape to play? I mean even removing meta, its still kinda hard to keep up that, "I don't care attitude". But it also comes alongside feeling frozen, but to be fair, he came back into the thread to me trying to bury him, so IDK.
in terms of towniness, "towniness is used as loosely as possible for basically lurking for the most part"
Grape > Killjoy
So, it's Last/Proph and they have clearly decided on a "post the thread into submission" strategy.
Might work.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Even though I solved it with my last post, I guess I'll still soldier on with these reviews.
Killjoy
I liked one of Killjoy's first posts, where he made an observation that my failure to include Timetwister in my list of Blue cards to vote suggested that I would be less likely scum-alligned with DoTA. Because, if we were buddies, I would probably have been more conscious of leaving my buddy deliberately off a list he might otherwise have been included on. I thought that was a fair observation, and showed some kind of critical thinking/game solving mentality. It was just one sentence though, and certainly not something he couldn't have said as scum.
Another reasonable observation is at #267 where he points out to DoTA that DoTA is questioning whether Osie and I are trying to figure each other out or not (or just posting for the sake of show), and he asks DoTA - if trying to figure each other out is one of the possibilities - why does DoTA also say he doesn't think it's a T/T interaction? What specifically makes him feel that? This is a fair question, which again seems to show a game-solving mentality. But again, I would say it's also not outside scum-range, particularly because as scum Killjoy would know that this was, in fact, a T/T interaction. This post does give me "Killjoy less likely aligned with DoTA" vibes though.
In #324 Killjoy makes another "I think they are less likely aligned" observation regarding DV and Osie for what he regards as a weak attack on Osie by DV (basically Osie gave Proph an early "town" read and DV questioned the genuineness of this read). All this seems fair.
Killjoy seems to suspect Proph a little early on for what he perceives as Proph asking some poor questions. The good here is that Killjoy is directly engaging Proph on the topic, and not just saying it into the void (and voting). It's more probing, like he's trying to solve Proph. So, I think it's still fine.
He then throws out some more comprehensive thoughts at #475.
Thinks I am likely Town because I got some heat/criticism early for doing essentially what I always do, and he thinks that criticism might have been more likely to come from scum. Not sure about this reasoning - a lot came from Osie - but it doesn't feel like it's "insider" info leaking out here.
Proph he seems to have come around on as more likely Town, as a rusty Town Proph who hasn't Towned it up in awhile makes sense to Killjoy for why Proph's questions aren't the greatest. Okay.
No opinion on Cantrip. Just says he's one of the "tricksy" ones who uses a lot of words and needs to keep an eye out. Okay.
No good opinion on Osie yet. Says his posts have been...fine? Also, probably okay, though he probably should have a better opinion on one of the top posters who's been the subject of much discussion thus far.
DoTA - some decent posts but not a lot of content. Fine. This is kind of how I felt also.
Doesn't remember much about Grape and need to re-read him. Maybe fine? Does he ever do this?
Current best guesses for scum are DV (whiff) and Last.
DV because he's both (1) aggressively jumped on Proph, but also (2) been "hedgy in a bad way." Which are somewhat contradictory things. Also, I don't see where he mentioned anything about this before. Before, he seemed to be questioning DV for DV's theory that Osie was showing inside info in declaring Proph Town. That wasn't DV going after Proph at all. Maybe DV did start going after Proph (don't remember and not looking it up) but Killjoy never said anything about that before this, and also doesn't seem to be questioning DV about it now either. Doesn't point out where DV has been hedgy either. So, this looks less solvey and more conclusory.
Last because Killjoy specifically doesn't like Last's progression on him. Claims Last has been saying Killjoy is null to him, but at the same time, claims that Last is arguing repeatedly that others should also not have developed a "Town" read on Killjoy. I read the three post Killjoy linked to make this argument and they are all posts where Last is saying Killjoy is null and he basically has no thoughts. They are not posts where Last is arguing to others that they should not have Town thoughts about Killjoy, so that part of this argument was not supported here. Maybe Last did make those statements, I just don't see them yet and I am not trying to look them up. If Last did, it's a better argument than if Killjoy's entire point is based on a read of only the three posts he quoted.
Something to possibly be said about KJ not jumping the Osie wagon and seeming to be willing to give GJ more time to get into the game.
He then engages a bit with both of his above referenced scum-reads. With DV, he points out a DV post he says he didn't like, along with what he perceives to be a scummy pattern of behavior. With Last, he goes much more into depth. He breaks down why he feels Last's repeated remarks that KJ is "null" looked malicious to him (i.e. an attempt to get other people to agree and degrade their Town-reads on KJ.) This is, in some ways, an answer to my question above, though I'm not sure how much I agree with it. He finally challenges DV's scum read on himself - saying essentially that DV should know better.
I do feel a certain amount of sincerity here. If this is a scum-KJ pleading his case, he's doing a pretty good job.
He puts off an Osie read/opinion though. Which isn't great considering they were still top suspect approaching deadline.
Finally does re-read and gives that opinion in #524. Conclusion is that Osie might be scum. He's seeing a strange progression on Osie's scum-reads (arguing why he thinks one person is scum while voting another, and then seeming to switch to a suspicion of DoTA from out of nowhere, finally flipping on KJ himself after initially saying he thought KJ was Town.) He excuses his earlier failure to read Osie as he just didn't want to because he's traditionally bad at it.
And, eh, I don't see too many red flags with this. I'm probably biased since I was one of the biggest Osie pushers, but what this isn't is simple bandwaggoning. Looks like some independent thought going on here.
He then makes an observation that probably doesn't serve him well if scum, which is that he doesn't think Proph could be scum with anyone BUT Osie at this point, given the way Proph is defending him. Doesn't think scum-Proph would go this hard defending an easy mis-yeet. Given scum KJ knows that this will be a mis-yeet, seems less likely he would want to cut off his ability to argue Proph is still scum later, not when he didn't have to.
And then he revises his opinion on DV towards the end of the day, saying he no longer thinks DV is scum. Not quite sure how this happened.
KJ appears to have made the same mistake I did about the deadline, but he realized it in time and was around for the deadline, indicating a willingness to vote for GJ/Osie or Last. Which is at least consistent. Then settles on GJ, remarking he thought he had more time. This still seems fair to me. The "counter-wagon" that was developing at the last minute was on Grape, and KJ didn't really say anything about that, which isn't great, but with the deadline, it's more understandable. I do note a lack of opinion on Grape for basically the entire day.
At the end of all this, I...actually mostly like Killjoy? I agree with some of his stuff, but even more than that, I like his thought processes, and I don't see anything malicious here. His whole Tone is also very natural and just appears unforced to me. It's not an enormous amount of content, but it's not a lurking scum amount of content.
Verdict: Could be Town!
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Thank you for reviewing KJ, Axel. Still sort of have him as hard PoE, but you've inspired me to do my own review/analysis of KJ so I can try and see where you're coming from - OR if I find stuff that you may have missed which may point towards a more malicious mindset
GF started with a RVS vote on Osie which became a serious vote as of post #69. He didn't explain why it became a serious vote until prodded by Proph, and the explanation was:
Didn't like the mafia slip question towards you at all (looked like asking for permission to push) and the town read on you seemed flimsy. I also find their presence to be a bit jaggedy and uneven. A weird mixture of relaxation and discomfort that I can't quite figure out. Knowing they're familiar with everyone here makes me lean towards the discomfort I'm picking up on be from rolling scum but it's a minor thing
He described his read as a "late day 1" serious read in his previous post, but this really doesn't read that strong (if you are describing it specifically as "late D1" I generally take that to mean "pretty strong"), so there's some disconnect there for me.
He also threw out a read on Last which was that this seemed like Town Last to him, because Last seemed engaged and relaxed, and he thinks that's harder for scum-Last to fake. I guess I disagree, both with the premise and the conclusion. I didn't feel like Last seemed especially more engaged or relaxed at the beginning of this game than any other I've been in him with, and I definitely didn't feel like anything he posted early couldn't have come from scum. I would not read much at all into the early banter stuff.
Proph seems to feel the same way here and questions Grape a bit more about this read. Grape continues to say he thinks Last - while maybe being peeved - is not showing an "undercurrent" of fear or being uncomfortable. It's hard to judge these personality based reads you disagree with, so, it's kind of just note it for the time being and move along.
In #152 he applauds DoTA for joining the Osie wagon, but questions his Town-read on KJ. This was for the post where DoTA said he didn't think scum-KJ would bring up the fact that I (Axelrod) might have been attempting "distancing" between myself and DoTA by leaving him out of my Blue cards list. Considering that I do not think this was what KJ was even saying, I feel like this was a mis-read on the part of DoTArchon. That did not appear to be the point that Grape was making here though.
Grape also questions Cantrip's early Town-read on Osie. Fine.
Proph makes a meta-post on Last arguing that his entrance in this game looks more like his scum games than his town games, particularly when it comes to RVS voting. Grape disagrees. Somewhat interestingly, he concludes that he now has to re-evaluate Osie because he now thinks Proph and Osie may be unaligned (and he's voting Osie). Grape doesn't change his vote here, though the tone suggests his suspicion of Proph has now become greater.
Proph then does a complete 180 on Last and says he now thinks Last is Town. Grape says that kind of flip probably more likely comes from a Town Proph. and he might be right about that, but then also immediately criticizes Proph on another point saying this makes all the good feelings go away. Seems to think that Proph should be re-evaluating the whole game in light of his new opinion on Last, but Proph. isn't doing that. Probably don't agree with this.
Last questions Grape on the strength of his Osie read and Grape comes back with "Convinced but filled with crippling self doubt" which is a line I kind of like, but don't think is really alignment indicative.
My browser just went all funky on me and created multiple tabs of pages I have open. I think I have hit some button by mistake but I don't know what one. So I'm just posting this now before I lose it. I'm kind of of tired anyway, so I'm finishing this later.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
So I'm reading through DoTa and have a couple questions: First can you draw me a line from your slight townread on Cross to your scumread on GJ? How much did you consider the previous read when evaluating GJ and why was GJ's posting so bad?
And, you asked Wisp "Why ask Cross and Proph instead of me?" in response to his asking Cross and Proph if you're usually abrupt with your votes... but the conversation seems to end there in your ISO. Did you get a satisfactory answer to that question, and what about his asking not you do you have opinions about?
If you did not get a satisfactory answer, why did that line of questioning end there?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Important announcement: Cantripmancer has asked to bow out of the game due to scheduling conflicts. I am currently in the process of securing a replacement for his spot.
So I'm reading through DoTa and have a couple questions: First can you draw me a line from your slight townread on Cross to your scumread on GJ? How much did you consider the previous read when evaluating GJ and why was GJ's posting so bad?
Where did I ever mention a town read on Cross?
And, you asked Wisp "Why ask Cross and Proph instead of me?" in response to his asking Cross and Proph if you're usually abrupt with your votes... but the conversation seems to end there in your ISO. Did you get a satisfactory answer to that question, and what about his asking not you do you have opinions about?
If you did not get a satisfactory answer, why did that line of questioning end there?
Wisp's answer made sense, which is why I did not pursue it. As he said he was asking for an outside opinion as any answer I gave would be self biased.
Scum games have been a while. And my most recent wasn't complete.
Town: Shoushiling and Tarot
Scum: Modern and I replaced out of Matter mafia but you can check it out too for the short while I'm in it.
Everyone gets a bio!
Some of these are going to take a lot longer than others. I think I'm starting with the easy ones.
lol
My recent scum games have been embarrassing but people still give me some respect as a scum player. If my town game was anywhere close to decent I'd have turned into the easiest read on this site. Instead I'm bad at both barring an occasional outlier like Tarot mafia where I was randomly a god.
It is bad for two reasons: (1) Lurking is bad. But also (2) in this particular game, Osie had a lot of heat for a lot of the day and it never really went away. This is a situation that the Mafia would be fairly happy about, and (usually) hope to maintain. Not impossible for one of them to assume the White Knight position and strongly defend the wrongly accused (i.e. the Proph. gambit theory), but probably less likely than just being okay with the status quo. So, I'm reviewing Cantrip with that in mind and looking at how his posts would fit that hypothesis.
On the positive side, with his 11 posts, Cantrip did not spend a lot of them on meaningless fluff. First post was reasonably comprehensive, giving a thought on every player.
On Osie, he has Town-leaning, because he is a sucker for high posters (not unreasonable) and also suspects who he is and that he's in his town meta (kind of whatever, and apparently he was wrong about who he thought Osie was). On DV he just says: "I hate reading DV. Scumlean" which I don't understand.
He has mild Town leans on both Killjoy and DoTA, that I don't love for the stated reasons. On Killjoy appears to be another meta read and thinks he's showing his "town paranoid" self. On DoTa he says he thinks he's been trying to solve, and showed insight into Killjoy's mindset. I'll note here that DoTA was voting for Crossbell at this moment who appeared to be top town for Cantrip. Cantrip doesn't address that.
Mild townlean for Wisp because he feels Wisp is posting in a "careless" manner that would be harder for scum Wisp to fake. I probably disagree.
Grape and myself are both "Null" at this point. Grape because he has positive and Negative thoughts. Me because I haven't posted much.
Top scum is Proph at the beginning. I don't really have an issue with his early basis here, but I do have a small issue with the fact that this read - while mentioned a couple times - is never really argued. After his 1st post, Cantrip does not question Proph. Proph responds to him and seems to want to engage, but Cantrip kind of doesn't.
The worst part of Cantrip is that he just wasn't around. He voted Proph in his first post of the day and left it there the entire day - even though in his last post of the day he said it was actually feeling more like Town!Proph to him. He made many excuses for being busy/internet troubles. Basically hasn't really played yet, with no strong opinions expressed. And though he supposedly had Osie as a town-read, he most definitely did not attempt to defend him, or argue against his elimination. And that's certainly a possible scum play - i.e. say you think the Town is Town, but then sit back and watch while he's voted out and not do anything to try and stop it or suggest someone else.
I do like some of his smaller posts here and there. He makes some reasonable points when he's making points. He's just not doing it enough. Which means there's nothing here that I can grab onto and say "oh yeah, this guy's Town." His Town read of Osie and the end of day in particular (or lack of it, as the case may be) is a little worse looking. As is his lack of engagement with his supposed top suspect.
Verdict: Still in the pile.
@Grape - Thanks, I'll check them out when I have some time. I hosted Modern and completely forgot it LOL
Was mostly looking for examples of Wisp holding onto his vote or not voting people as town until late Day 1. Both Shousling and Throne Room fit those examples. From there I began rereading Wisp's early posts and stepped into the shoes of him as town, and the rest is history.
---
I thoroughly enjoyed read Axel's Cantrip analysis. I hope he goes into similar depth for most of the other players in the game. I'm not joking though - I think if we just shoot a triple barreled gun at Cantrip, DoTA, and Killjoy, the game most likely ends in a town victory or we end up in xylo. I can't meaningfully advance the gamestate until everyone is on the same page.
Him saying that he never defended Osie despite townreading him is also a good point. My issue with all of these points though is that they can ultimately be explained by Cantrip having activity problems, which is why lurking is bad as town and even worse as scum - because when push comes to shove, there's no way to defend yourself.
Boom boom boom.
That's all I have to say at the moment.
looking pretty town to me
I'll be on in a few hours, after work/family
^^^^
Cantrip seems at first glance to not be putting as much thought into his reads as I'm used to. 151 is obviously fairly shallow. Particularly his scumlean of DV. He says he hates reading DV, which I interpret as he thought a lot/everything DV was doing was scummy... but there's no specifics. Cantrip is the type of player who would have specific reasons for disliking someone generally, and his choice not to specify those reasons in his list here doesn't actually make a whole lot of sense to me. Actually there's a second possible meaning to "I hate reading DV" and that's that he just dislikes trying to discern his alignment... but then the Scumlean comes out of nowhere and still has no stated reasons. Note: He says of DotA: Townlean for insight into my play.
In 241 is progression on his DotA read. It's notable because it's kinda just a reaction to DotA's vote on Cross, but contradicts Proph's read on the same vote. Cantrip seems to come down on it being a townie post from DotA.
In 245, he says "It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ."
@Cantrip: What games have I been scum against you? I can't remember.
It's entirely possible this read is actually fake in order to placate Proph here. This kinda makes me think that Proph and Cantrip are unaligned, because Cantrip probably doesn't make a potentially demonstrably false statement like this to placate his buddy during theatre.
Note: he (possibly jokingly) claims that DV might be town for, I assume, a natural sounding post 178.
In 265: "That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T." This feels nitpicky, His point wrt DotA is that is doesn't mesh with DotA's assertion that Axel and Crossbell potentially weren't actually trying to figure each other out (which implies that they are buddies performing theatre) but Cantrip has issues with the way DotA worded his argument, acting as if DotA contradicted himself when he really didn't. I'm not sure there's a remarkable difference between asking if Axel and Cross were buddies and saying DotA didn't think it's T/T, or even a difference between asking if it's T/W or W/W.
In conclusion: I'm actually thinking he might be a wolf here, because I'm not seeing the extensive probing I'm used to, and specfically I'm not seeing thoughtful Cantrip I'm used to seeing. I don't think this is time constraints, I think it's just Cantrip acting abnormal.
Coloring added to seperate quotes from my thoughts.
This his absolutely nothing to do with your Cantrip wall, it's just a thought. I do agree that it's possible this less of a time constraint and maybe an alignment problem. I can't really say anything about the other statements since I am at work, but I will look into it.
@cantrip
It's y'all's turn to give us some thoughts
16 D1 posts, so, same logic applies here as to Cantrip's low post count.
First post is random RVS vote, fine.
He then starts in on Crossbell, and it's, also fine? He points out that Osie (and now I'm deciding I'm just going to say "Osie" from here on out because it's easier than "Crossbell") didn't really interact with me before casting his "serious" vote, and asks if other people's posts commenting on my "meta" have had any effect on this read. He doesn't care for Osie's explanation and then votes him in #139. I have no issues here. I thought fair points were made.
He then spends some time justifying a read in which he says he feels like - due to Osie and my interactions - we probably aren't a T/T pair, but either T/W or W/W pair. I don't quite follow the logic process here (he says, knowing it is incorrect). Seems like what he's saying is that we talked to each other for a bunch of posts, but in a way that didn't advance the game or that would help us figure each other out. This is kind of true, though it ignores the context, which primarily was me (1) thinking I had it figured out who Osie was, followed by (2) Osie implying it wasn't him, and (3) me (jokingly) going off on why he should have been the person I thought he was (who he actually was, but he was still trying to be deceptive about it.)
I guess I don't have all that much problem with this either. Two people making a lot of not-directly-game related posts in a row can look wrong, even if it is still very early in the game. Though his logic is off that it can't be T/T who do this (and he didn't say "can't" just that his "gut" said not T/T). I mean, the fact that one Town can do it ought to make it self-evident that two Town can. Regardless, I don't find it suspicious.
I also can't really fault him for poking at Osie, as I was doing pretty much the same thing. And it doesn't feel like he's piggybacking or bandwaggoning here.
DoTA promises some thoughts on other people in #306, and then, after some further prodding (from Proph - which looks good on him) finally gives some more thoughts in #437.
Grape - Think he's Town. Because he doesn't get "scum vibes" from his posts.
Wisp - Having a hard time reading. Maybe a little less volatile than he remembers Town-Wisp being. Just below null.
DV - Feels like antagonistic Town
Cantrip - Not a lot of posts, but every one has content. Thinks Cantrip is trying to figure out the game.
Proph - Also has a hard time reading. Thinks Proph/Wisp/Osie spend a lot of time talking to each other. Paranoia about scum deciding to go for top posters together.
Killjoy - Had an early Town read but now questioning. Because he has a bad post/content ratio.
Aaaaaannnnd, these are shallow, but okay? Nothing controversial here or beyond scum-range, but nothing sticks out as suspicious either.
He unvotes Osie when GJ replaces in, (#470, 7/2), but he is not impressed with GJ's posts and re-votes 2 posts later (#592, 7/5). I don't have issues with the vote here as such either. It was deadline time and a choice needed to be made. Osie was his top pick before, and GJ didn't move the needle enough (or at all?)
The worst thing about all this is his simple lack of presence. Similar to Cantrip, DoTA just was not around much on D1. He used the timezone difference as an excuse at least once. And then maybe work/business. But he's barely played. So, it's certainly possible he's coasting scum. But that said, I don't have too many issues with anything specific he's actually posted. Most of it reads fine, and I can even agree with a lot of it.
Verdict: Above Cantrip!
The TLDR is: Last and Cantrip are at the bottom of my T/S list by the end of page 5, KJ looking better in retrospect of this.
Post 151 Cantripmancer -
Town read of Crossbell/Osie seems a bit light. Grape calls this out in 152.
Response in post 236
Leaning heavily on a meta read of Cross even while uncertain on who the alt is. Slightly contradictory statement here.
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Killjoy read also light. Calls KJ paranoid TownKJ for post 150 but there’s no paranoia there, just a question to DV
Proph asks about this in post 166.
Response in post 245:
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Has a townread on me for trying to solve, especially for my insight into KJ, but doesn’t mention my Cross/Osie analysis/vote from post 139. “Insight into KJ” was just me pointing out that KJ saw something I didn’t in the early RVS posts (possible distancing) and wouldn’t mention it as scum. This is speculation on my part, townlean not solid townread. Would make more sense to have pointed out Cross vote imo.
Mentions my Cross post/vote in post 241, but hadn’t really posted anything in between 151 and 241. Still think it should have come up in his catch up post in 151 as it forms part of his townread of me.
Post 155 Crossbell/Osie -
After removing townreads, ends up with:
Three impossible teams, DV flipped town and I know my alignment. Definite scum in his early townreads...
Post 156 Lastwhisper -
Calls Osie’s townlean on Proph a stretch. Last line stands out
Post 183 Lastwhisper -
Similar to post 156 above, asks Proph to talk to him when he has a scum read on someone other than him, throws out a townread on DV. Looking back, previous DV mentions from Wisp to this point:
DV is top townread without any mention to date?
Might still be a wolf? Hasn’t said anything about a read on DV to this point. Claims to be mindmelding with DV but keeping options open?
This is the next mention of DV here in 183 “still probably not DV”
Looking for further info.
Post 191 DV -
Suspects Lastwhisper might be trying to pocket him
Post 230 Lastwhisper -
No solid reads on anyone, can go either way on most. “Can also pull out reasons to like DV/Axel” Strange way to talk about his top two townreads from 60 posts back with nothing indicating a change of heart in between.
Mentions a Cantrip/KJ/Grape/DoTA PoE.
Cross/Osie in post 98:
DV in post 194:
Keeping options open to see which way the wind blows with the now confirmed two townies?
Posts 231 and 235 Prophylaxis -
Meta checked and re-ISO’s Wisp, moves from scumread to townlean. Likes post 230 from Wisp but as above, 230 looks very non-committal to me.
Post 250 Crossbell -
Notes to refer back to Wisp’s 230 at a later point. (looking for follow up on this)
it's basically gibberish to me
who are u referring to here?
and honestly, i'd rather be non-commital trying to work with everyone trying to figure this game out, than spend the entirety of day 1, hammering on a townie, who you helped flip, never trying to understand their thought process, while making like 3 half-way decent posts.
This site has a completely different playstyle for me, especially when you remove a lot of the playerbase who actually is consistently here on a day to day basis, whom I can talk to.
Proph probably has the most reasons to be voted, I think? and Osie was hated by almost everyone, which I don't hate, cause ya the scum reads against him were justified from an analytical point of view, but based off his flip, that's clearly irrelevant. But Proph handling of EoD trumps any of the inconsistencies in his ISO, just like it did with GJ/Osie.
Out of 3/4 low posters, who have made some kind of PBAP today, Axel's is by far the most natural, given he isn't doing the iso trying to find a wolf, but to naturally evaluate someone.
I will do stuff with this game probably tomorrow night. Still just mostly waiting for the collective PoE to post. I know I've been mostly coasting this day phase.
problem is I am a real time solver, even if I suck at evaluating real time, its still better for evaluation. Like who knows when dota will respond to my posts.
or the when Cantrip will even post.
@Proph
Why do u think DV died last night? and not me or you? Reading other games, I think I might be seeing differences between your town and wolf game that aren't just "investment" reads.
I am including you in my reread, cause I want to take a look at some of your mannerisms. Actually here is a question, Why do you think "I" should see you as town here? I guess we will see how serious I am in regards to fencesitting on you once I get to placing other players in this game.
I am going to sleep
I think I will start with this.
I think Killjoy is just not all there, and not in a malicious lurking mafia way, but in a, "playing his own game, sometimes reading the game entirely in correct." I also just don't think wolf!killjoy, votes GJ like that?
@DOta
I think this is irrelevant, and I can't even remember if I answered it after the first 5 pages, but DV was a town read because of his general attitude, and the way he was handling his reads. I literally just got out of game, with DV as my partner, and his posts were dumb. I faltered for a second at EoD, because I was convinced the wolves were in Killjoy/Grape, and DV calling a lack of self-preservation townie, just felt partner to Grape.
That said, I’m really hoping we can use this weekend to get things back on track and for everyone to get caught up and contributing. Again, no stones thrown, I still have yet to update the front page, but let's get it going come the weekend through Thursday. Sound good?
Vote Count:
DOTArchon - 1 (Prophylaxis) - PLURALITY
I think that quote still generally holds true with the exception of Darling, where I was very invested due to our great scumteam. IMO, my Day 1 is out of my wolf range - I just don't act like how I did towards DV if I was a wolf. I would have tried to placate him rather than continuously argue with him, I think. In addition, I know I bus my teammates and defend townies as scum, but I would have not stuck my head out to defend GJ how I did if I was a wolf. I would have let him be mislunched and then would have advocated to kill you at night, Wisp. My town game has various strengths and weaknesses, but one thing that has always been a constant is my ability to identify low-hanging fruit townies as town. I am very good at that one specific thing. I just decided to follow Chloe's example from Darling and tried to apply it to this game, which was vigorously defending my townreads so that scum couldn't mislunch them. Obviously my attempt failed, but at least I /tried/ and didn't succumb to self doubt.
I think DV died because there's a decent chance that he was on the money with his legacy guess, and he wasn't going to be mislunched any time soon. No one was really actively scumreading him besides me, and I even said that I thought he was town in my gun-to-head read at EoD. I think the reason why neither you nor I died last Night is because we are both really polarizing players.
My issue with KJ continues to be that everyone else has better reasons to be town than him. He can't be read due to his activity, sure, but I am really struggling to remember a notable thing KJ has done to impact the gamestate. He's just been There, and has tried some attempts at solving, but nothing IMO that is unfakeable. This is why I want to hear Axel's hard PBPA of Killjoy, because he is better at doing that than I am, and an additional perspective would be helpful. Like I said earlier, I find micro reasons to like him but his macro play overall has been horrid.
Still like outposting 90% of the game even when I'm lazy so w.e.
what do you think of both Killjoy and Dota's analysis on me in regards to Dota, and killjoy in regards to cantrip?
in terms of towniness, "towniness is used as loosely as possible for basically lurking for the most part"
Grape > Killjoy
Might work.
Killjoy
I liked one of Killjoy's first posts, where he made an observation that my failure to include Timetwister in my list of Blue cards to vote suggested that I would be less likely scum-alligned with DoTA. Because, if we were buddies, I would probably have been more conscious of leaving my buddy deliberately off a list he might otherwise have been included on. I thought that was a fair observation, and showed some kind of critical thinking/game solving mentality. It was just one sentence though, and certainly not something he couldn't have said as scum.
Another reasonable observation is at #267 where he points out to DoTA that DoTA is questioning whether Osie and I are trying to figure each other out or not (or just posting for the sake of show), and he asks DoTA - if trying to figure each other out is one of the possibilities - why does DoTA also say he doesn't think it's a T/T interaction? What specifically makes him feel that? This is a fair question, which again seems to show a game-solving mentality. But again, I would say it's also not outside scum-range, particularly because as scum Killjoy would know that this was, in fact, a T/T interaction. This post does give me "Killjoy less likely aligned with DoTA" vibes though.
In #324 Killjoy makes another "I think they are less likely aligned" observation regarding DV and Osie for what he regards as a weak attack on Osie by DV (basically Osie gave Proph an early "town" read and DV questioned the genuineness of this read). All this seems fair.
Killjoy seems to suspect Proph a little early on for what he perceives as Proph asking some poor questions. The good here is that Killjoy is directly engaging Proph on the topic, and not just saying it into the void (and voting). It's more probing, like he's trying to solve Proph. So, I think it's still fine.
He then throws out some more comprehensive thoughts at #475.
Thinks I am likely Town because I got some heat/criticism early for doing essentially what I always do, and he thinks that criticism might have been more likely to come from scum. Not sure about this reasoning - a lot came from Osie - but it doesn't feel like it's "insider" info leaking out here.
Proph he seems to have come around on as more likely Town, as a rusty Town Proph who hasn't Towned it up in awhile makes sense to Killjoy for why Proph's questions aren't the greatest. Okay.
No opinion on Cantrip. Just says he's one of the "tricksy" ones who uses a lot of words and needs to keep an eye out. Okay.
No good opinion on Osie yet. Says his posts have been...fine? Also, probably okay, though he probably should have a better opinion on one of the top posters who's been the subject of much discussion thus far.
DoTA - some decent posts but not a lot of content. Fine. This is kind of how I felt also.
Doesn't remember much about Grape and need to re-read him. Maybe fine? Does he ever do this?
Current best guesses for scum are DV (whiff) and Last.
DV because he's both (1) aggressively jumped on Proph, but also (2) been "hedgy in a bad way." Which are somewhat contradictory things. Also, I don't see where he mentioned anything about this before. Before, he seemed to be questioning DV for DV's theory that Osie was showing inside info in declaring Proph Town. That wasn't DV going after Proph at all. Maybe DV did start going after Proph (don't remember and not looking it up) but Killjoy never said anything about that before this, and also doesn't seem to be questioning DV about it now either. Doesn't point out where DV has been hedgy either. So, this looks less solvey and more conclusory.
Last because Killjoy specifically doesn't like Last's progression on him. Claims Last has been saying Killjoy is null to him, but at the same time, claims that Last is arguing repeatedly that others should also not have developed a "Town" read on Killjoy. I read the three post Killjoy linked to make this argument and they are all posts where Last is saying Killjoy is null and he basically has no thoughts. They are not posts where Last is arguing to others that they should not have Town thoughts about Killjoy, so that part of this argument was not supported here. Maybe Last did make those statements, I just don't see them yet and I am not trying to look them up. If Last did, it's a better argument than if Killjoy's entire point is based on a read of only the three posts he quoted.
Something to possibly be said about KJ not jumping the Osie wagon and seeming to be willing to give GJ more time to get into the game.
He then engages a bit with both of his above referenced scum-reads. With DV, he points out a DV post he says he didn't like, along with what he perceives to be a scummy pattern of behavior. With Last, he goes much more into depth. He breaks down why he feels Last's repeated remarks that KJ is "null" looked malicious to him (i.e. an attempt to get other people to agree and degrade their Town-reads on KJ.) This is, in some ways, an answer to my question above, though I'm not sure how much I agree with it. He finally challenges DV's scum read on himself - saying essentially that DV should know better.
I do feel a certain amount of sincerity here. If this is a scum-KJ pleading his case, he's doing a pretty good job.
He puts off an Osie read/opinion though. Which isn't great considering they were still top suspect approaching deadline.
Finally does re-read and gives that opinion in #524. Conclusion is that Osie might be scum. He's seeing a strange progression on Osie's scum-reads (arguing why he thinks one person is scum while voting another, and then seeming to switch to a suspicion of DoTA from out of nowhere, finally flipping on KJ himself after initially saying he thought KJ was Town.) He excuses his earlier failure to read Osie as he just didn't want to because he's traditionally bad at it.
And, eh, I don't see too many red flags with this. I'm probably biased since I was one of the biggest Osie pushers, but what this isn't is simple bandwaggoning. Looks like some independent thought going on here.
He then makes an observation that probably doesn't serve him well if scum, which is that he doesn't think Proph could be scum with anyone BUT Osie at this point, given the way Proph is defending him. Doesn't think scum-Proph would go this hard defending an easy mis-yeet. Given scum KJ knows that this will be a mis-yeet, seems less likely he would want to cut off his ability to argue Proph is still scum later, not when he didn't have to.
And then he revises his opinion on DV towards the end of the day, saying he no longer thinks DV is scum. Not quite sure how this happened.
KJ appears to have made the same mistake I did about the deadline, but he realized it in time and was around for the deadline, indicating a willingness to vote for GJ/Osie or Last. Which is at least consistent. Then settles on GJ, remarking he thought he had more time. This still seems fair to me. The "counter-wagon" that was developing at the last minute was on Grape, and KJ didn't really say anything about that, which isn't great, but with the deadline, it's more understandable. I do note a lack of opinion on Grape for basically the entire day.
At the end of all this, I...actually mostly like Killjoy? I agree with some of his stuff, but even more than that, I like his thought processes, and I don't see anything malicious here. His whole Tone is also very natural and just appears unforced to me. It's not an enormous amount of content, but it's not a lurking scum amount of content.
Verdict: Could be Town!
Will do so sometime this weekend
GF started with a RVS vote on Osie which became a serious vote as of post #69. He didn't explain why it became a serious vote until prodded by Proph, and the explanation was: He described his read as a "late day 1" serious read in his previous post, but this really doesn't read that strong (if you are describing it specifically as "late D1" I generally take that to mean "pretty strong"), so there's some disconnect there for me.
He also threw out a read on Last which was that this seemed like Town Last to him, because Last seemed engaged and relaxed, and he thinks that's harder for scum-Last to fake. I guess I disagree, both with the premise and the conclusion. I didn't feel like Last seemed especially more engaged or relaxed at the beginning of this game than any other I've been in him with, and I definitely didn't feel like anything he posted early couldn't have come from scum. I would not read much at all into the early banter stuff.
Proph seems to feel the same way here and questions Grape a bit more about this read. Grape continues to say he thinks Last - while maybe being peeved - is not showing an "undercurrent" of fear or being uncomfortable. It's hard to judge these personality based reads you disagree with, so, it's kind of just note it for the time being and move along.
In #152 he applauds DoTA for joining the Osie wagon, but questions his Town-read on KJ. This was for the post where DoTA said he didn't think scum-KJ would bring up the fact that I (Axelrod) might have been attempting "distancing" between myself and DoTA by leaving him out of my Blue cards list. Considering that I do not think this was what KJ was even saying, I feel like this was a mis-read on the part of DoTArchon. That did not appear to be the point that Grape was making here though.
Grape also questions Cantrip's early Town-read on Osie. Fine.
Proph makes a meta-post on Last arguing that his entrance in this game looks more like his scum games than his town games, particularly when it comes to RVS voting. Grape disagrees. Somewhat interestingly, he concludes that he now has to re-evaluate Osie because he now thinks Proph and Osie may be unaligned (and he's voting Osie). Grape doesn't change his vote here, though the tone suggests his suspicion of Proph has now become greater.
Proph then does a complete 180 on Last and says he now thinks Last is Town. Grape says that kind of flip probably more likely comes from a Town Proph. and he might be right about that, but then also immediately criticizes Proph on another point saying this makes all the good feelings go away. Seems to think that Proph should be re-evaluating the whole game in light of his new opinion on Last, but Proph. isn't doing that. Probably don't agree with this.
Last questions Grape on the strength of his Osie read and Grape comes back with "Convinced but filled with crippling self doubt" which is a line I kind of like, but don't think is really alignment indicative.
My browser just went all funky on me and created multiple tabs of pages I have open. I think I have hit some button by mistake but I don't know what one. So I'm just posting this now before I lose it. I'm kind of of tired anyway, so I'm finishing this later.
And, you asked Wisp "Why ask Cross and Proph instead of me?" in response to his asking Cross and Proph if you're usually abrupt with your votes... but the conversation seems to end there in your ISO. Did you get a satisfactory answer to that question, and what about his asking not you do you have opinions about?
If you did not get a satisfactory answer, why did that line of questioning end there?
Will take a look at the stuff people have posted a little later tonight
Vote Count:
Cantripmancer - 1 (Prophylaxis) - PLURALITY
Wisp's answer made sense, which is why I did not pursue it. As he said he was asking for an outside opinion as any answer I gave would be self biased.
Was mega-tired yesterday, will post more today, but I'd really love to hear from whoever replaces Cantrip.