1. Either Grape and I are both mafia, and every single person who voted Pokechu was town.
OR
2. At least one of the following players is mafia: ZDS, Rhand, and GJ.
Nothing in there says that Grape isn't mafia.
Ok. For situation 2, would it not be that there are two wolves in that pile, or are you saying that Grape is a wolf there? That's where I am getting the disconnect. I can't tell if you are saying either both wolves are on Poke, or if one is. I can't follow your mindset.
I am back. You guys should stop spamming so much while I'm away.
I. First of all, I would like to apologise for yesterDay's fiasco. As the main pusher behind Poke's bop (while Rhand and Johnny were... there, and Whispy was openly against it), I feel responsible for it and toDay I want to make up for my mistakes.
II. I spent the entire Day 1 only looking at details and individual posts without considering the whole. Not only did I miss the forest for the trees, I also missed the tree for the bark. To compensate, I looked up everyone's ISOs as a whole, to get a holistic view of each player.
These are my observations:
Johnny: He is mostly notable for defending Rhand and me vs each other and sort of defending Grape (vs Highroller). He has been scumreading Grape since essentially the beginning, but has been very passive about pushing that read — be it to figure Grape out or to get him bopped. I have a hard time understanding why he (sort of) defended Grape, his (only?) scum-read, against HR.
Highroller, Grape: I ended up skipping them both. The point of holistic analysis is to not get stuck on details, and I could not get past the tiny detail that they both spent so much time and energy pushing a wrong bop on me. I still have my details-level read on them from yesterDay (Grape OK, HR meh).
Rhand: He spent most of the Day seemingly without a scum-read, beyond his OMGUS on me that he didn't push very much. He did ask questions and regularly share his thoughts, so I can't say he hasn't been scumhunting, with the caveat that I don't quite get how his Poke vote followed from the questions he asked (if it did).
Whispy: He's dead so no need to go into details (I will if asked), to summarise he seemed actively looking for answers and his thought progressions were (for the most part) clear.
III. Based on the above, I have a few questions:
@Johnny:
1) Can you summarise your entire Grape read? How it started, how it evolved, what is its current status.
2) If you are scumreading Grape because of #31, then what about #55 where you said to Rhand "I think you are putting way too much stock into the first page of posts that people make"?
3) Why did you argue with Highroller about whether me flipping scum would make Grape scum or town, and why did you take the "it would make Grape town" side?
4) Not a question, just an FYI about HR latest posts: he is saying that either no scum voted Poke which only leaves Grape and him as possible scum, or at least one scum did which means at least one of [you, Rhand, me] is scum. It's extremely basic wagon analysis, but still worth mentioning.
@Rhand:
Before voting Poke you were questioning him, but then when you voted the reason given had nothing to do with those questions.
Did your questions influence your decision to vote him? What would you have done if he had not posted the post that proverbially broke the camel's back?
Regarding what I figured my role could do, I had absolutely no clue and hoped to "open the door to a more positive future". I picked Scissors because they evoke the opening of a door.
IV. In conclusion, I don't want to die (entirely because I don't want to be responsible for the town's loss), I hope I can make amends for my bad play, and I have Johnny at the top of my scum-list by a thin margin.
First off, I would appreciate it if you mention posts by number, but don't quote them, that you link them.
He is mostly notable for defending Rhand and me vs each other and sort of defending Grape (vs Highroller). He has been scumreading Grape since essentially the beginning, but has been very passive about pushing that read — be it to figure Grape out or to get him bopped. I have a hard time understanding why he (sort of) defended Grape, his (only?) scum-read, against HR.
Apart from trying to solve, I am trying to get into people's heads. I don't have to necessarily agree with it, but is has to make sense. I am not defending Grape, so much as trying to figure out where Highroller is coming from (for today). As far as these other posts:
1) Can you summarise your entire Grape read? How it started, how it evolved, what is its current status.
I feel like this entire game has been him trying to stay off the radar. I can't remember a single read he has apart from suspicion of me and you, and from what I skimmed of EoD, was as away from the game as I was. It started as suspicion, rose to it, but held mostly because I wanted to see more from the two psuedo afks. Hearing from the both, I thought Poke/Wisp were more suspicious, so the former, I voted for, while the latter, I had my own reasons for suspecting. Since there are only two wolves, I figured Grape could back burner, maybe he'd post more without me pushing him and hunt.
As of now, I am assuming he is a wolf with potentially anyone except maybe highroller? I think he has pinged me ever so slightly more, but frankly, I don't think either one would have been bussy with each other this often, and Highroller's opener hit wrong for me, but I can't really say why.
I don't think he is wolves with ZDS either, so I could only imagine him being wolves with Rhand at this point, but I am not getting wolf vibes from Rhand. So I am in a slightly weird spot for my reads.
2) If you are scumreading Grape because of #31, then what about #55 where you said to Rhand "I think you are putting way too much stock into the first page of posts that people make"?
I don't know why you are phrasing this as I am wolf reading him for only 31. Like I didn't base my entire Grape read on that one post, and world built from there. To Rhand's point though, I took his "This seems too ballsy for mafia!Grape" as basically a clear of "wolf X would never say Y". I wasn't ready to call Grape a lock wolf, but Rhand seemed like he was trying to town clear him for those posts.
3) Why did you argue with Highroller about whether me flipping scum would make Grape scum or town, and why did you take the "it would make Grape town" side?
I....what? His entire purpose for Grape's vote on you was that he thought he had such a slam dunk case that Grape felt at that point, if you are a wolf, Grape thought his only choice was to get early credit for a bus. That was one of those HR posts that have been giving me pause about wolf reading Grape. Even for him, that's a REALLY arrogant take on the situation, and if I am wrong on you and HR is right, I think it's far more likely Grape's vote is not a bus. And if Grape was good enough to fool me on that, good for him. For the record, the primary reason I strongly think it's not a bus was how quickly he jumped on. Poke still hadn't posted at that time, nor had I (about ZDS, but from before I was town siding so unless he thinks HR really red handed you, safe to assume where I would stick).
Like, you can quote me on this until end game: The towniest read I have on Grape, is how much I dislike HR logic on why Grape is a wolf.
Not a question, just an FYI about HR latest posts: he is saying that either no scum voted Poke which only leaves Grape and him as possible scum, or at least one scum did which means at least one of [you, Rhand, me] is scum. It's extremely basic wagon analysis, but still worth mentioning.
If that's the case, that's phrased so weirdly. So the short take away I should get from this is in HR's opinion, there are never 2 wolves on Poke?
I have the name "Observer", and I rock targeted Rhand.
I got no results, only that I burned my initial upgrade level and upgraded. But no actual results. Assuming Rhand chose paper, or I am wrong about what my role does.
I have the name "Observer", and I rock targeted Rhand.
I got no results, only that I burned my initial upgrade level and upgraded. But no actual results. Assuming Rhand chose paper, or I am wrong about what my role does.
Spoiler: I didn’t.
@ZDS: I was in a weird space where I had developed scumreads on both of you, but was also convinced you weren’t scum together.
That post did push me to the vote I ended up with.
I think I want to oust GJ now.
I don’t think HR is mafia and I don’t think ZDS and Grape are mafia together, so that leaves ZDS / GJ and Grape / GJ.
I’m gonna try to figure out Grape / ZDS this phase.
I have the name "Observer", and I rock targeted Rhand.
I got no results, only that I burned my initial upgrade level and upgraded. But no actual results. Assuming Rhand chose paper, or I am wrong about what my role does.
Spoiler: I didn’t.
@ZDS: I was in a weird space where I had developed scumreads on both of you, but was also convinced you weren’t scum together.
That post did push me to the vote I ended up with.
I think I want to oust GJ now.
I don’t think HR is mafia and I don’t think ZDS and Grape are mafia together, so that leaves ZDS / GJ and Grape / GJ.
I’m gonna try to figure out Grape / ZDS this phase.
You really think that I am wolves with Grape, after my last response to ZDS?
God damn, I know I am notorious for busing, but Jesus...
Poke still hadn't posted at that time, nor had I (about ZDS, but from before I was town siding so unless he thinks HR really red handed you, safe to assume where I would stick).
The pronouns are all weird. Why his "ZDS" in the third person? Who is "you", if not me? What's that about town siding?
I'm confused, did you mean to post this in scumchat???
Poke still hadn't posted at that time, nor had I (about ZDS, but from before I was town siding so unless he thinks HR really red handed you, safe to assume where I would stick).
The pronouns are all weird. Why his "ZDS" in the third person? Who is "you", if not me? What's that about town siding?
I'm confused, did you mean to post this in scumchat???
This is the type of tainting that makes me wolf read people, and if I remember correctly, you did this to me in Prison Block.
I don't know why I went crazy pronouns. I am trying to do 10,000 things at once.
My point was that at least two town players had not commented about HR's "point/vote" towards you. That would have been a lighting fast bus on page 2 that I don't think Grape is capable of. I don't even think I am capable of it, and said so at the time if not mistaken
His posts and his trains of thought match mine. I know I’m town. I can bring up specific posts and quotes I like - I know we have the same opinion of ZDS’ #78. But I don’t think that would do much more than simply saying he reads genuine and I like his posts so far.
Having trouble focusing toDay but following GJ's lead to me the possible teams are: HR/ZDS
HR/GJ
HR/Rhand
ZDS/GJ
ZDS/Rhand
GJ/Rhand
I don't think that ZDS/Rhand makes a ton of sense but I need to reread.
If that's the case, that's phrased so weirdly. So the short take away I should get from this is in HR's opinion, there are never 2 wolves on Poke?
No, I'm saying there are either one or two mafia who voted Poke. That's why I said "At least one." "At least one" encompasses one and all numbers higher than one, which in this case, means two. I wouldn't say "at least one" if I were saying ONLY ONE or ONLY TWO. "At least one" encompasses both possibilities.
Manipulator, targeted ZDS with paper and sent him a message. So he's potentially lied though to what end I have no idea. More likely my message was somehow blocked.
Tageted ZDS on the hope I could mess with what he threw, who he targeted, or maybe block him.
Sorry about the pointless taunt Johnny, my imagination goes haywire when I don't understand something.
You did not address the elephant in the room, so please do. What's that about "town siding"?
Wut.
Elephent in the room? That was just me saying I was town siding on you at the time of highroller's vote. As a further justification of why I don't think Grape's vote on you is ever a bus. Is something unclear about that?
Sorry about the pointless taunt Johnny, my imagination goes haywire when I don't understand something.
You did not address the elephant in the room, so please do. What's that about "town siding"?
Wut.
Elephent in the room? That was just me saying I was town siding on you at the time of highroller's vote. As a further justification of why I don't think Grape's vote on you is ever a bus. Is something unclear about that?
"Town siding" in a Mafia context means "to side with the town". It's something 3rd parties can do (I made the "scumchat" accusation in the spur of the moment, in part because of the shifting pronouns, I was wrong).
Looking up "town siding mafia" in various search engines returns results that conform to my definition.
I ask you with no sarcasm: are you a neutral or 3rd party?
@Not-Johnny Don't sleep on this. If anyone is more familiar with Johnny's definition of "town siding" than with mine please let me know.
I don't think I have ever used the term town siding in my entire wolf or 3rd party career. And no, of course I am not a third party in a 7 player game. If this is anything other than 5 town 2 wolves, I am going to dismiss this as a bastard game.
I don't doubt that's what the actual definition is. I am just telling you that's what I said
I will reveal the message's contents if Grape asks. All I can say for now is it was a townie message.
The game is based on rock-paper-scissors, there being 3 sides would not be that surprising. Whether the game can have three sides and be balanced and not-bastard is another question and I am not willing to bet on the answer.
Re: the message: It makes me believe Grape is town (more than I already did), is it more clear that way?
The game is based on rock-paper-scissors, there being 3 sides would not be that surprising. Whether the game can have three sides and be balanced and not-bastard is another question and I am not willing to bet on the answer.
Re: the message: It makes me believe Grape is town (more than I already did), is it more clear that way?
Not really. It's Lynch or lose, and now doesn't seem to be the time to be so tight lipped.
Sorry about the pointless taunt Johnny, my imagination goes haywire when I don't understand something.
You did not address the elephant in the room, so please do. What's that about "town siding"?
Wut.
Elephent in the room? That was just me saying I was town siding on you at the time of highroller's vote. As a further justification of why I don't think Grape's vote on you is ever a bus. Is something unclear about that?
"Town siding" in a Mafia context means "to side with the town". It's something 3rd parties can do (I made the "scumchat" accusation in the spur of the moment, in part because of the shifting pronouns, I was wrong).
Looking up "town siding mafia" in various search engines returns results that conform to my definition.
I ask you with no sarcasm: are you a neutral or 3rd party?
@Not-Johnny Don't sleep on this. If anyone is more familiar with Johnny's definition of "town siding" than with mine please let me know.
Because I was mimicking HR’s reporting style? And I asked Osie if I got any results from my ability and he said no.
Wasn’t it you that attacked me for asking a pointless question in RVS?
In mafia!HR worlds this means he’s mafia with exactly ZDS. Mafia don’t connect two townies for no reason because lynching one destroys the scum read on the other. That means if HR is mafia, one of ZDS and Grape is too.
They do like to link a buddy to a townie to create a chainlynch on town when the buddy flips.
HR is clearly convinced that what ZDS did should get him lynched. That is true in town! And mafia!HR worlds.
So if he is mafia, he is assuming that out of ZDS and Grape, ZDS will flip first.
To make the chainlynch work, that means Grape is the town in the pairing that he wants to lynch after the ZDS flip.
I can see HR going for a bus here.
Turning that around, ZDS is voting HR. In a 7 player game, voting each other on Day 1 is terrible unless they think that getting towncred on each other’s lynch is the best way to win. Which is... bad play and not what I would ever see ZDS agreeing to. So while I can see HR making this play, I do not see ZDS go for it. Ever.
Conclusion: HR is not mafia with ZDS and not without ZDS so he is town.
Thanks Wisp
Walk me through this logic. Why couldn't HR be wolves with anyone not named ZDS or Grape? ELI5
Otherwise, mostly nothing really caught my eye. Doesn't help the majority of posts I went through are from dead players.
His posts and his trains of thought match mine. I know I’m town. I can bring up specific posts and quotes I like - I know we have the same opinion of ZDS’ #78. But I don’t think that would do much more than simply saying he reads genuine and I like his posts so far.
Having trouble focusing toDay but following GJ's lead to me the possible teams are: HR/ZDS
HR/GJ
HR/Rhand
ZDS/GJ
ZDS/Rhand
GJ/Rhand
I don't think that ZDS/Rhand makes a ton of sense but I need to reread.
His posts and his trains of thought match mine. I know I’m town. I can bring up specific posts and quotes I like - I know we have the same opinion of ZDS’ #78. But I don’t think that would do much more than simply saying he reads genuine and I like his posts so far.
Having trouble focusing toDay but following GJ's lead to me the possible teams are: HR/ZDS
HR/GJ
HR/Rhand
ZDS/GJ
ZDS/Rhand
GJ/Rhand
I don't think that ZDS/Rhand makes a ton of sense but I need to reread.
I had a dream that I asked this to you. Maybe I am mixing you up with the question I just asked Rhand, but why can't HR be a wolf with anyone else?
@ZDS you can reveal the message if you want. Mostly because I'm curious why you town read me for it.
@GJ I mean he can be, I just think he's pretty much always town here, it's nothing specific to those pairings. Though I shouldn't commit to that till after his claim is public.
I mean, I think it's just understanding at this type of game that a lot of things can happen.
I am starting to wonder if I was wrong about one of ZDS or Rhand, because some of the other pairings don't make sense to me.
Definitely, but I'm very confident in my HR read. Maybe I shouldn't be but I am pretty much at a ride or die stage on it.
Question on your team pairings: what made you decide me/ZDS was a viable team after all? The strongest take I remember from you recently is that you don't believe I could have pulled off bussing ZDS like that.
I mean, I think it's just understanding at this type of game that a lot of things can happen.
I am starting to wonder if I was wrong about one of ZDS or Rhand, because some of the other pairings don't make sense to me.
Definitely, but I'm very confident in my HR read. Maybe I shouldn't be but I am pretty much at a ride or die stage on it.
Question on your team pairings: what made you decide me/ZDS was a viable team after all? The strongest take I remember from you recently is that you don't believe I could have pulled off bussing ZDS like that.
Which is why I am trying to figure out who I got wrong.
Not to rub it in and gloat though, but remember when you ride or died on me? Not sure why I have Rhand/ZDS crossed off either, other than two town reads, and I would fall into a depression if both of them are wolves.
Not to rub it in and gloat though, but remember when you ride or died on me? Not sure why I have Rhand/ZDS crossed off either, other than two town reads, and I would fall into a depression if both of them are wolves.
You absolutely fooled me. I am not above getting fooled. I don't think HR is capable of it. If I'm wrong I will eat all of the crow but to me he is very obviously exactly his normal self. I found all the arguments about him not pursuing things as forcefully or not having as strong of reasoning completely unfounded/unpersuasive.
Not to rub it in and gloat though, but remember when you ride or died on me? Not sure why I have Rhand/ZDS crossed off either, other than two town reads, and I would fall into a depression if both of them are wolves.
You absolutely fooled me. I am not above getting fooled. I don't think HR is capable of it. If I'm wrong I will eat all of the crow but to me he is very obviously exactly his normal self. I found all the arguments about him not pursuing things as forcefully or not having as strong of reasoning completely unfounded/unpersuasive.
Anyway going to try to reread the whole game now.
Why I am falling on HR a bit is that I feel like in his town games, I won't agree with his logic, but at least I can follow it. What bothers me is how he read you as an obvious busser to ZDS. A few other things as well that just annoy me, but that's the one thing I can't follow. What did you make of his response to your vote? I am a littl tipsy, so if tyou did respond to that and I missed it, I apologize
It is super ******* weird that I am startying to town read grape just becauise the number vo viable teams, I think I only have 1 that makess sense with him.
It is super ******* weird that I am startying to town read grape just becauise the number vo viable teams, I think I only have 1 that makess sense with him.
That's how I usually get town read! Think it's happened in all my DLP games.
And your previous point is exactly why I'm reading him town here. His lazer focus on ZDS is exactly that to me. He picked a reason and tunneled on it. He decided my change of mind was because I'm so cowardly that I was afraid to go against him on my budd so I flipped my read in response to his. Like I can see the logic clearly. I don't agree with it, but it's there. Pretty sure the only reason he thinks I'm a busser and not trying to pocket him is because he never even considered changing his read on ZDS for a second.
I'm very curious to see if he revaluates after his claim today and what Rhand is referring to in 318.
Why I am falling on HR a bit is that I feel like in his town games, I won't agree with his logic, but at least I can follow it. What bothers me is how he read you as an obvious busser to ZDS. A few other things as well that just annoy me, but that's the one thing I can't follow. What did you make of his response to your vote? I am a littl tipsy, so if tyou did respond to that and I missed it, I apologize
I didn't argue Grape was mafia because he was voting ZDS. I was arguing against YOU saying that Grape voting ZDS makes him unlikely to be mafia.
I was suspicious of Grape because he said ZDS' process was great when I thought it was anything but. Grape would later vote ZDS. You said it made no sense for Grape to vote ZDS if they were both mafia. I said that what you were saying didn't make any sense because Grape could always be bussing ZDS, and in fact, were he mafia, that would be his best play given the circumstances.
Also I have a general thought that is giving me pause is unless every ability can upgrade I think it's unlikely that the entire scum team has abilities that upgrade. Upgrading abilities in a game that is only going to have a max of 2 nights is very strange and intriguing to me as a design choice.
Huh, those are not interpretations I would have guessed from Decider. Can you go into your reasoning for that speculation?
I mean, I had no information beyond my role name, and The Decider strikes me as either a guy with a gun taking the law into his own hands, or someone involved in law about to lay down a verdict on someone.
There was also the fact that if I could either flip or just kill outright a person I believed to be mafia, it would be an enormous gain to the town, and if I'd ended up being the doctor or something, the worst case is that I'd just end up accidentally protecting the wrong person, unfortunate but not that bad compared to the potential benefits.
I'd assumed you would be deciding what the person threw. As in whoever you target has their RPS choice overridden and makes yours instead. Osie is crafty but in a game like this the most obvious decision is rock, paper, or scissors? Your reasoning is plausible enough that it doesn't make me rethink my read on you.
Grape's message: It contained his reads in a town-ZDS world: Rhand scum, Johnny+Rhand buddies, HR town, Whispy+Rhand not buddies (heavily paraphrased).
I am townreading Grape for it is because of how well this fits with my own post-reread worldview, especially Johnny+Rhand as the most likely team.
If Grape was scum he would have used this message to pocket me (which would be strange on its own), and to pocket me he would have tried to reflect my own reads from EoD1 (notably Johnny town, Whispy scum).
The only two things that give me a little pause, though I am not sure they are significant, are:
@Grape:
1) Why pick me for your legacy? Scum-ZDS was probably the only one who could have prioritised killing you (I think), so if you were scumreading me it would have made more sense to pick someone else.
2) Did you hope to mess with me in addition to sending the message? Because I am not sure how the message itself was supposed to mess with me.
Upgrades: The only two players who did not receive an upgrade are me and Grape, so unless I'm wrong on Grape I'm positive the entire scum-team got one.
I figured they might be the secondary result of some abilities (eg depending on your pick you get nothing/an upgrade/your actual ability) but it might be more complex than that.
I was also curious why my top scumteam had both received an upgrade, but since HR confirmed he also did that's become moot.
HR's pick of target: There is absolutely nothing surprising about him targeting me and hoping for a "decisive" effect. Makes him +town if he really did.
Set-up spec?: I threw scissors and both Grape and HR threw paper. However, only Grape's ability seemed to have an effect. So it's probable who "wins" RPS is irrelevant, or is only relevant in an unpredictable way.
Regarding the possibility of neutrals, I'm analysing the game like it doesn't exist. I'm only considering it in the first place because of Johnny's "town siding" comment.
@ZDS the message was sent after my decision was locked. I was told 24 hours before the day start that I could send you a message. Which came as a surprise as a 140 character message doesn't particularly feel manipulative.
I took 12 of them because sending a message to my top scum read is pretty pointless. So I decided to pretend I was talking to you from the grave and that you were town while not really believing that was the world we were in.
Time is passing by and we are barely done mass-claiming, we should focus on deciding who to yeet...
... and about that, I happen to be the least likely scum out of us five.
Thanks to my awful play, all four of you are looking at me with bloodthirsty eyes. Since we are at flush-or-fail it is hard to imagine scum would choose to bus rather than pluck the fruit hanging so low it has become a potato.
I took 12 of them because sending a message to my top scum read is pretty pointless. So I decided to pretend I was talking to you from the grave and that you were town while not really believing that was the world we were in.
Not convinced? Fine, let's go in depth.
Highroller and I have spent most of yesterDay trying to kill each other while everyone else (except Grape) watched without taking a side. The chances of us acting in cahoots are extremely low.
Grape, in addition to being openly hostile to me, used his "Manipulator" ability on me. There is no point to that if we were buddies, and the message he ended up having to write proves he is not lying about his target. Aside from HR's conspiracy theories from yesterDay, we are essentially confirmed not-together.
With Johnny and Rhand it is more complex, neither of them is as explicit about scumreading me as HR and Grape are.
Thankfully I think they are scum (by POE), which allows me to make this proposal:
@Highroller, @Grape: Pick one of Johnny or Rhand for me to vote, and I will vote him.
This way there will be no reason to believe I may decide to vote one while being partnered with the other.
@Johnny, @Rhand: Chances are Highroller is going to disagree with my proposal on grounds of still believing Grape and I are scumbuddies. Help him by contradicting yourselves and telling him he's right.
Mockery aside, do something. Rhand is twiddling his thumbs waiting for I don't know what, and Johnny is so serious about his pairings he apparently believes HR and me could be a team.
Whether you guys (the two among you four who are town) listen to the evidence in spite of who is presenting it (and how, ZDS sure is an arrogant prick), or whether you keep going and we gloriously crash and burn, is entirely up to you. I allow you to hate my guts, the facts won't change: I am proven town by virtue of playing so badly everyone, both town and scum, wants to kick me out.
@ZDS the message was sent after my decision was locked. I was told 24 hours before the day start that I could send you a message. Which came as a surprise as a 140 character message doesn't particularly feel manipulative.
I took 12 of them because sending a message to my top scum read is pretty pointless. So I decided to pretend I was talking to you from the grave and that you were town while not really believing that was the world we were in.
Thank you for clarifying this, it makes a lot more sense now.
Of course I am. That's the entire benefit of the town in a small game: You are supposed to evaluate pairs, and there are things you can see or actions someone can do that makes it obvious that wolf players A and B don't interact like that.
Mockery aside, do something. Rhand is twiddling his thumbs waiting for I don't know what, and Johnny is so serious about his pairings he apparently believes HR and me could be a team.
Well if not's Grape, the only two teams I can see are you and Highroller, and you and Rhand. If you are actually town, and I am town, that's the only logical conclusion. That's the entire point of this tytpe of analysis as you bloody well know.
And it's not like people can't be wrong about indepenent town/wolf reads, as we have just witnessed. It's why I am grinding Grape into wine. Either he slips up and is a wolf, or I realize I am wrong, and it means the team is something else.
I didn't argue Grape was mafia because he was voting ZDS. I was arguing against YOU saying that Grape voting ZDS makes him unlikely to be mafia.
It's the same thing.
In ZDS/Grape wolf worlds, Grape doesn't ping him that early, and then immediately vote with other people. His vote is far more likely to be a town vote then saw what you did than a wolf vote that decided that you somehow found the smoking gun, and wanted early bus credit. That early. I'll ride or die on that non pairing all the way to the bank.
Yeah, I'm tired as hell. I don't think rereading the thread's going to happen today.
So observations I have from looking at the claims:
1. First, the rock-paper-scissors element:
Gentleman_Johnny threw rock at Rhand (Scissors). [Win?]
Rhand threw scissors at Grape (Paper). [Win?]
Grape threw paper at ZDS (Scissors). [Loss?]
ZDS threw scissors at LastWhisper (???).
Highroller threw paper at ZDS (Scissors). [Loss?]
We do not know what LastWhisper threw or to whom he threw it.
2. ZDS is the only person who claims to have targeted LastWhisper.
3. Three separate people have claimed that they were "upgraded," namely GJ, Rhand, and myself.
4. Only GJ received a result discussing how he "burned his initial upgrade level"
5. Only ZDS claims to have gotten no result entirely.
6. Only Grape's ability seems to have actually worked.
Hell if I can make heads or tails out of any of this.
If all claimed targets and rolenames are true, then:
— Johnny the Gentleman tried to "observe" Rhand, which makes sense in many worlds (scum GJ watching over scum RH for safety, scum GJ observing town RH for info, town GJ watching over ??? RH in case he's NKed);
— Grape tried to "manipulate" me, which makes the most sense from the perspective of a townie scumreading me: I would expect scum Grape to manipulate a better townie than me, such as Whispy ;
— Highroller tried to "decide" me, which again makes the most sense from the perspective of a townie scumreading me for the same reasons as with Grape ;
— Rhand tried to "command" Grape, which makes the most sense from the perspective of a scum trying to mess with a strong townie, and I have a hard time swallowing the "middle of [his] reads" justification.
So claimed action are +town for Grape and HR, NAI for Johnny and +scum for Rhand.
As for my own claim of "doormanning" the NK victim, there really isn't a way to talk about it that doesn't taste like wine. Nevertheless, for the record, if I were scum I would not have targeted the NK victim in the first place.
Of course I am. That's the entire benefit of the town in a small game: You are supposed to evaluate pairs, and there are things you can see or actions someone can do that makes it obvious that wolf players A and B don't interact like that.
Mockery aside, do something. Rhand is twiddling his thumbs waiting for I don't know what, and Johnny is so serious about his pairings he apparently believes HR and me could be a team.
Well if not's Grape, the only two teams I can see are you and Highroller, and you and Rhand. If you are actually town, and I am town, that's the only logical conclusion. That's the entire point of this tytpe of analysis as you bloody well know.
So according to you scum-I came out of the gates voting one of my possible buddies who immediately OMGUSed me until you interfered, and afterwards scum-me and my other possible buddy spent most of the Day tearing each other to pieces.
Meanwhile, you say Grape/ZDS isn't a viable pairing because Grape (who never put as much effort into flooping me as HR did) was quick in joining my wagon. That to you is more significant than any of the above.
Rereading your play as a whole, without getting swayed by details that seem significant but are actually not (such as whether I agree with your arguments).
Private Mod Note
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Ok. For situation 2, would it not be that there are two wolves in that pile, or are you saying that Grape is a wolf there? That's where I am getting the disconnect. I can't tell if you are saying either both wolves are on Poke, or if one is. I can't follow your mindset.
I need to reread as well.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I. First of all, I would like to apologise for yesterDay's fiasco. As the main pusher behind Poke's bop (while Rhand and Johnny were... there, and Whispy was openly against it), I feel responsible for it and toDay I want to make up for my mistakes.
II. I spent the entire Day 1 only looking at details and individual posts without considering the whole. Not only did I miss the forest for the trees, I also missed the tree for the bark. To compensate, I looked up everyone's ISOs as a whole, to get a holistic view of each player.
These are my observations:
Johnny: He is mostly notable for defending Rhand and me vs each other and sort of defending Grape (vs Highroller). He has been scumreading Grape since essentially the beginning, but has been very passive about pushing that read — be it to figure Grape out or to get him bopped. I have a hard time understanding why he (sort of) defended Grape, his (only?) scum-read, against HR.
Highroller, Grape: I ended up skipping them both. The point of holistic analysis is to not get stuck on details, and I could not get past the tiny detail that they both spent so much time and energy pushing a wrong bop on me. I still have my details-level read on them from yesterDay (Grape OK, HR meh).
Rhand: He spent most of the Day seemingly without a scum-read, beyond his OMGUS on me that he didn't push very much. He did ask questions and regularly share his thoughts, so I can't say he hasn't been scumhunting, with the caveat that I don't quite get how his Poke vote followed from the questions he asked (if it did).
Whispy: He's dead so no need to go into details (I will if asked), to summarise he seemed actively looking for answers and his thought progressions were (for the most part) clear.
III. Based on the above, I have a few questions:
@Johnny:
1) Can you summarise your entire Grape read? How it started, how it evolved, what is its current status.
2) If you are scumreading Grape because of #31, then what about #55 where you said to Rhand "I think you are putting way too much stock into the first page of posts that people make"?
3) Why did you argue with Highroller about whether me flipping scum would make Grape scum or town, and why did you take the "it would make Grape town" side?
4) Not a question, just an FYI about HR latest posts: he is saying that either no scum voted Poke which only leaves Grape and him as possible scum, or at least one scum did which means at least one of [you, Rhand, me] is scum. It's extremely basic wagon analysis, but still worth mentioning.
@Rhand:
Before voting Poke you were questioning him, but then when you voted the reason given had nothing to do with those questions.
Did your questions influence your decision to vote him? What would you have done if he had not posted the post that proverbially broke the camel's back?
Regarding what I figured my role could do, I had absolutely no clue and hoped to "open the door to a more positive future". I picked Scissors because they evoke the opening of a door.
IV. In conclusion, I don't want to die (entirely because I don't want to be responsible for the town's loss), I hope I can make amends for my bad play, and I have Johnny at the top of my scum-list by a thin margin.
Apart from trying to solve, I am trying to get into people's heads. I don't have to necessarily agree with it, but is has to make sense. I am not defending Grape, so much as trying to figure out where Highroller is coming from (for today). As far as these other posts:
I feel like this entire game has been him trying to stay off the radar. I can't remember a single read he has apart from suspicion of me and you, and from what I skimmed of EoD, was as away from the game as I was. It started as suspicion, rose to it, but held mostly because I wanted to see more from the two psuedo afks. Hearing from the both, I thought Poke/Wisp were more suspicious, so the former, I voted for, while the latter, I had my own reasons for suspecting. Since there are only two wolves, I figured Grape could back burner, maybe he'd post more without me pushing him and hunt.
As of now, I am assuming he is a wolf with potentially anyone except maybe highroller? I think he has pinged me ever so slightly more, but frankly, I don't think either one would have been bussy with each other this often, and Highroller's opener hit wrong for me, but I can't really say why.
I don't think he is wolves with ZDS either, so I could only imagine him being wolves with Rhand at this point, but I am not getting wolf vibes from Rhand. So I am in a slightly weird spot for my reads.
I don't know why you are phrasing this as I am wolf reading him for only 31. Like I didn't base my entire Grape read on that one post, and world built from there. To Rhand's point though, I took his "This seems too ballsy for mafia!Grape" as basically a clear of "wolf X would never say Y". I wasn't ready to call Grape a lock wolf, but Rhand seemed like he was trying to town clear him for those posts.
I....what? His entire purpose for Grape's vote on you was that he thought he had such a slam dunk case that Grape felt at that point, if you are a wolf, Grape thought his only choice was to get early credit for a bus. That was one of those HR posts that have been giving me pause about wolf reading Grape. Even for him, that's a REALLY arrogant take on the situation, and if I am wrong on you and HR is right, I think it's far more likely Grape's vote is not a bus. And if Grape was good enough to fool me on that, good for him. For the record, the primary reason I strongly think it's not a bus was how quickly he jumped on. Poke still hadn't posted at that time, nor had I (about ZDS, but from before I was town siding so unless he thinks HR really red handed you, safe to assume where I would stick).
Like, you can quote me on this until end game: The towniest read I have on Grape, is how much I dislike HR logic on why Grape is a wolf.
If that's the case, that's phrased so weirdly. So the short take away I should get from this is in HR's opinion, there are never 2 wolves on Poke?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I got no results, only that I burned my initial upgrade level and upgraded. But no actual results. Assuming Rhand chose paper, or I am wrong about what my role does.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Spoiler: I didn’t.
@ZDS: I was in a weird space where I had developed scumreads on both of you, but was also convinced you weren’t scum together.
That post did push me to the vote I ended up with.
I think I want to oust GJ now.
I don’t think HR is mafia and I don’t think ZDS and Grape are mafia together, so that leaves ZDS / GJ and Grape / GJ.
I’m gonna try to figure out Grape / ZDS this phase.
You really think that I am wolves with Grape, after my last response to ZDS?
God damn, I know I am notorious for busing, but Jesus...
Maybe it is you and Grape.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
ZDS/Grape
ZDS/RhandRhand/HR
Rhand/Grape
HR/GrapePossible teams.
I need to reread the game as well. Should have bigger post tonight or tomorrow, depending on how work goes.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I do want to ask about this:
The pronouns are all weird. Why his "ZDS" in the third person? Who is "you", if not me? What's that about town siding?
I'm confused, did you mean to post this in scumchat???
This is the type of tainting that makes me wolf read people, and if I remember correctly, you did this to me in Prison Block.
I don't know why I went crazy pronouns. I am trying to do 10,000 things at once.
My point was that at least two town players had not commented about HR's "point/vote" towards you. That would have been a lighting fast bus on page 2 that I don't think Grape is capable of. I don't even think I am capable of it, and said so at the time if not mistaken
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Having trouble focusing toDay but following GJ's lead to me the possible teams are:
HR/ZDSHR/GJ
HR/Rhand
ZDS/GJ
ZDS/Rhand
GJ/Rhand
I don't think that ZDS/Rhand makes a ton of sense but I need to reread.
You did not address the elephant in the room, so please do. What's that about "town siding"?
Claims:
Gentleman Johnny - "Observer," targeted Rhand night 1, threw rock, "I got no results, only that I burned my initial upgrade level and upgraded. But no actual results."
Highroller - "Decider," targeted ZDS night 1, threw [yet to claim], result [yet to claim]
Rhand -
ZeDorkSlipeur - "Doorman," targeted LastWhisper night 1, threw scissors, no result
Grapefruit21 -
Confirmed:
Pokechu - "The Smuggler," Town Chatless Packager
Lastwhisper - "Angel of Death," Town Protective
I'm saying it could be either two mafia in that set of three, or one mafia in that set of three with Grape being the other. Hence, "At least one."
No, I'm saying there are either one or two mafia who voted Poke. That's why I said "At least one." "At least one" encompasses one and all numbers higher than one, which in this case, means two. I wouldn't say "at least one" if I were saying ONLY ONE or ONLY TWO. "At least one" encompasses both possibilities.
Tageted ZDS on the hope I could mess with what he threw, who he targeted, or maybe block him.
I had no idea what to expect from my role. Commander sounds helpful but could also be something like a redirect.
I aimed it at the middle of my reads.
I’m going to wait until HR claimed, but I spotted some strangeness in the claims.
Wut.
Elephent in the room? That was just me saying I was town siding on you at the time of highroller's vote. As a further justification of why I don't think Grape's vote on you is ever a bus. Is something unclear about that?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
My claim was true at the time I made it: I had not yet received the message.
I received the message between my previous two posts, and did not see it until after posting my last post.
Please address any complaints to Osie.
I will reveal the message's contents if Grape asks. All I can say for now is it was a townie message.
———
@Rhand, @Johnny Why do you separate your "upgrade" from your Night results?
———
"Town siding" in a Mafia context means "to side with the town". It's something 3rd parties can do (I made the "scumchat" accusation in the spur of the moment, in part because of the shifting pronouns, I was wrong).
Looking up "town siding mafia" in various search engines returns results that conform to my definition.
I ask you with no sarcasm: are you a neutral or 3rd party?
@Not-Johnny Don't sleep on this. If anyone is more familiar with Johnny's definition of "town siding" than with mine please let me know.
I don't doubt that's what the actual definition is. I am just telling you that's what I said
Wait, what?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Re: the message: It makes me believe Grape is town (more than I already did), is it more clear that way?
Not really. It's Lynch or lose, and now doesn't seem to be the time to be so tight lipped.
As far as the other part.....seriously?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Because I was mimicking HR’s reporting style? And I asked Osie if I got any results from my ability and he said no.
Wasn’t it you that attacked me for asking a pointless question in RVS?
Walk me through this logic. Why couldn't HR be wolves with anyone not named ZDS or Grape? ELI5
Otherwise, mostly nothing really caught my eye. Doesn't help the majority of posts I went through are from dead players.
Still hedging like a ***** about Highroller
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I don't know. All Osie said was the upgrade makes my ability results will be better....but I got no results.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I had a dream that I asked this to you. Maybe I am mixing you up with the question I just asked Rhand, but why can't HR be a wolf with anyone else?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
@GJ I mean he can be, I just think he's pretty much always town here, it's nothing specific to those pairings. Though I shouldn't commit to that till after his claim is public.
I am starting to wonder if I was wrong about one of ZDS or Rhand, because some of the other pairings don't make sense to me.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Definitely, but I'm very confident in my HR read. Maybe I shouldn't be but I am pretty much at a ride or die stage on it.
Question on your team pairings: what made you decide me/ZDS was a viable team after all? The strongest take I remember from you recently is that you don't believe I could have pulled off bussing ZDS like that.
That's a mistake on my end. Should be:
ZDS/HR
ZDS/GrapeZDS/Rhand
Rhand/HR
Rhand/Grape
HR/GrapeWhich is why I am trying to figure out who I got wrong.
Not to rub it in and gloat though, but remember when you ride or died on me? Not sure why I have Rhand/ZDS crossed off either, other than two town reads, and I would fall into a depression if both of them are wolves.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
You absolutely fooled me. I am not above getting fooled. I don't think HR is capable of it. If I'm wrong I will eat all of the crow but to me he is very obviously exactly his normal self. I found all the arguments about him not pursuing things as forcefully or not having as strong of reasoning completely unfounded/unpersuasive.
Anyway going to try to reread the whole game now.
Why I am falling on HR a bit is that I feel like in his town games, I won't agree with his logic, but at least I can follow it. What bothers me is how he read you as an obvious busser to ZDS. A few other things as well that just annoy me, but that's the one thing I can't follow. What did you make of his response to your vote? I am a littl tipsy, so if tyou did respond to that and I missed it, I apologize
The GJ way path to no lynching:
It is super ******* weird that I am startying to town read grape just becauise the number vo viable teams, I think I only have 1 that makess sense with him.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
That's how I usually get town read! Think it's happened in all my DLP games.
And your previous point is exactly why I'm reading him town here. His lazer focus on ZDS is exactly that to me. He picked a reason and tunneled on it. He decided my change of mind was because I'm so cowardly that I was afraid to go against him on my budd so I flipped my read in response to his. Like I can see the logic clearly. I don't agree with it, but it's there. Pretty sure the only reason he thinks I'm a busser and not trying to pocket him is because he never even considered changing his read on ZDS for a second.
I'm very curious to see if he revaluates after his claim today and what Rhand is referring to in 318.
So:
Claims:
Gentleman Johnny - "Observer," targeted Rhand night 1, threw rock, "I got no results, only that I burned my initial upgrade level and upgraded. But no actual results."
Highroller - "Decider," targeted ZDS night 1, threw Paper, received message that I upgraded, nothing else.
Rhand - "Commander," targeted Grape, threw scissors, "no result, upgraded."
ZeDorkSlipeur - "Doorman," targeted LastWhisper night 1, threw scissors, no result
Grapefruit21 - "Manipulator," targeted ZDS, threw paper, sent him a message, ZDS claims to have received it.
Confirmed:
Pokechu - "The Smuggler," Town Chatless Packager
Lastwhisper - "Angel of Death," Town Protective
I'm going to need to think about this.
I didn't argue Grape was mafia because he was voting ZDS. I was arguing against YOU saying that Grape voting ZDS makes him unlikely to be mafia.
I was suspicious of Grape because he said ZDS' process was great when I thought it was anything but. Grape would later vote ZDS. You said it made no sense for Grape to vote ZDS if they were both mafia. I said that what you were saying didn't make any sense because Grape could always be bussing ZDS, and in fact, were he mafia, that would be his best play given the circumstances.
There was also the fact that if I could either flip or just kill outright a person I believed to be mafia, it would be an enormous gain to the town, and if I'd ended up being the doctor or something, the worst case is that I'd just end up accidentally protecting the wrong person, unfortunate but not that bad compared to the potential benefits.
Why, what did you think it was going to be?
I am townreading Grape for it is because of how well this fits with my own post-reread worldview, especially Johnny+Rhand as the most likely team.
If Grape was scum he would have used this message to pocket me (which would be strange on its own), and to pocket me he would have tried to reflect my own reads from EoD1 (notably Johnny town, Whispy scum).
The only two things that give me a little pause, though I am not sure they are significant, are:
@Grape:
1) Why pick me for your legacy? Scum-ZDS was probably the only one who could have prioritised killing you (I think), so if you were scumreading me it would have made more sense to pick someone else.
2) Did you hope to mess with me in addition to sending the message? Because I am not sure how the message itself was supposed to mess with me.
Upgrades: The only two players who did not receive an upgrade are me and Grape, so unless I'm wrong on Grape I'm positive the entire scum-team got one.
I figured they might be the secondary result of some abilities (eg depending on your pick you get nothing/an upgrade/your actual ability) but it might be more complex than that.
I was also curious why my top scumteam had both received an upgrade, but since HR confirmed he also did that's become moot.
HR's pick of target: There is absolutely nothing surprising about him targeting me and hoping for a "decisive" effect. Makes him +town if he really did.
Set-up spec?: I threw scissors and both Grape and HR threw paper. However, only Grape's ability seemed to have an effect. So it's probable who "wins" RPS is irrelevant, or is only relevant in an unpredictable way.
Regarding the possibility of neutrals, I'm analysing the game like it doesn't exist. I'm only considering it in the first place because of Johnny's "town siding" comment.
I took 12 of them because sending a message to my top scum read is pretty pointless. So I decided to pretend I was talking to you from the grave and that you were town while not really believing that was the world we were in.
... and about that, I happen to be the least likely scum out of us five.
Thanks to my awful play, all four of you are looking at me with bloodthirsty eyes. Since we are at flush-or-fail it is hard to imagine scum would choose to bus rather than pluck the fruit hanging so low it has become a potato.
Case in point, on this page alone:
Not convinced? Fine, let's go in depth.
Highroller and I have spent most of yesterDay trying to kill each other while everyone else (except Grape) watched without taking a side. The chances of us acting in cahoots are extremely low.
Grape, in addition to being openly hostile to me, used his "Manipulator" ability on me. There is no point to that if we were buddies, and the message he ended up having to write proves he is not lying about his target. Aside from HR's conspiracy theories from yesterDay, we are essentially confirmed not-together.
With Johnny and Rhand it is more complex, neither of them is as explicit about scumreading me as HR and Grape are.
Thankfully I think they are scum (by POE), which allows me to make this proposal:
@Highroller, @Grape: Pick one of Johnny or Rhand for me to vote, and I will vote him.
This way there will be no reason to believe I may decide to vote one while being partnered with the other.
@Johnny, @Rhand: Chances are Highroller is going to disagree with my proposal on grounds of still believing Grape and I are scumbuddies. Help him by contradicting yourselves and telling him he's right.
Mockery aside, do something. Rhand is twiddling his thumbs waiting for I don't know what, and Johnny is so serious about his pairings he apparently believes HR and me could be a team.
Whether you guys (the two among you four who are town) listen to the evidence in spite of who is presenting it (and how, ZDS sure is an arrogant prick), or whether you keep going and we gloriously crash and burn, is entirely up to you. I allow you to hate my guts, the facts won't change: I am proven town by virtue of playing so badly everyone, both town and scum, wants to kick me out.
———
Thank you for clarifying this, it makes a lot more sense now.
Of course I am. That's the entire benefit of the town in a small game: You are supposed to evaluate pairs, and there are things you can see or actions someone can do that makes it obvious that wolf players A and B don't interact like that.
Well if not's Grape, the only two teams I can see are you and Highroller, and you and Rhand. If you are actually town, and I am town, that's the only logical conclusion. That's the entire point of this tytpe of analysis as you bloody well know.
And it's not like people can't be wrong about indepenent town/wolf reads, as we have just witnessed. It's why I am grinding Grape into wine. Either he slips up and is a wolf, or I realize I am wrong, and it means the team is something else.
It's the same thing.
In ZDS/Grape wolf worlds, Grape doesn't ping him that early, and then immediately vote with other people. His vote is far more likely to be a town vote then saw what you did than a wolf vote that decided that you somehow found the smoking gun, and wanted early bus credit. That early. I'll ride or die on that non pairing all the way to the bank.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
What shifted your read on me?
@Rhand:
What ever happened to your ZDS read? How did it fare with Poke?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
So observations I have from looking at the claims:
1. First, the rock-paper-scissors element:
Gentleman_Johnny threw rock at Rhand (Scissors). [Win?]
Rhand threw scissors at Grape (Paper). [Win?]
Grape threw paper at ZDS (Scissors). [Loss?]
ZDS threw scissors at LastWhisper (???).
Highroller threw paper at ZDS (Scissors). [Loss?]
We do not know what LastWhisper threw or to whom he threw it.
2. ZDS is the only person who claims to have targeted LastWhisper.
3. Three separate people have claimed that they were "upgraded," namely GJ, Rhand, and myself.
4. Only GJ received a result discussing how he "burned his initial upgrade level"
5. Only ZDS claims to have gotten no result entirely.
6. Only Grape's ability seems to have actually worked.
Hell if I can make heads or tails out of any of this.
— Johnny the Gentleman tried to "observe" Rhand, which makes sense in many worlds (scum GJ watching over scum RH for safety, scum GJ observing town RH for info, town GJ watching over ??? RH in case he's NKed);
— Grape tried to "manipulate" me, which makes the most sense from the perspective of a townie scumreading me: I would expect scum Grape to manipulate a better townie than me, such as Whispy ;
— Highroller tried to "decide" me, which again makes the most sense from the perspective of a townie scumreading me for the same reasons as with Grape ;
— Rhand tried to "command" Grape, which makes the most sense from the perspective of a scum trying to mess with a strong townie, and I have a hard time swallowing the "middle of [his] reads" justification.
So claimed action are +town for Grape and HR, NAI for Johnny and +scum for Rhand.
As for my own claim of "doormanning" the NK victim, there really isn't a way to talk about it that doesn't taste like wine. Nevertheless, for the record, if I were scum I would not have targeted the NK victim in the first place.
———
So according to you scum-I came out of the gates voting one of my possible buddies who immediately OMGUSed me until you interfered, and afterwards scum-me and my other possible buddy spent most of the Day tearing each other to pieces.
Meanwhile, you say Grape/ZDS isn't a viable pairing because Grape (who never put as much effort into flooping me as HR did) was quick in joining my wagon. That to you is more significant than any of the above.
Rereading your play as a whole, without getting swayed by details that seem significant but are actually not (such as whether I agree with your arguments).