So basically the defense for Azrael has amounted to BoomFrog saying, "But he's really active." Which, if that's your defense, it's pretty much a concession.
And the case against me is...
A) I argued with HR about Wisp (Didn't even particularly disagree that we should consider killing him, but had ideas about when and what conditions, but HR disliked my reasoning so I'm scum)
B) Tammy thinks I'm inauthentic, but can't describe that without reference to how it makes her feel, rather than any actual scum motivation or plan or any particular wording
C) ???
The scum team is going to wind up being HR, Bur, Cuth, and LW as neutral or mafia. And it's no accident that 5 out of 5 top scummiest players in the game (I'm including tubba there), all of whom I've pointed out to the town are problematic, are trying to push this mislynch.
Meanwhile, our confirmed townies are milling around aimlessly, waiting for their chance to have the most vocal among their number picked off like fish in a barrel during the night.
Tammy has said more than once that Azrael’s scumhunting is superficial pointedly referencing the garbage case against gentleman Johnny that was partly azrael fluffing himself about how scared of him Johnny was, that Johnny wasn’t trying to read him when he was, and some horribly superficial analysis. Also his pbpa against bur was commentary not analysis and was busy work designed to look like he’s scumhunting without actual analysis, which is a common scum trait. Azrael knows better than to call that actual analysis when it’s not.
the fact that he keeps ignoring that I’m calling him out for lack of depth in scumhunting and pretending it’s all about performance is e main reason why I’m not wavering on this anymore.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Tammy has said more than once that Azrael’s scumhunting is superficial pointedly referencing the garbage case against gentleman Johnny that was partly azrael fluffing himself about how scared of him Johnny was, that Johnny wasn’t trying to read him when he was, and some horribly superficial analysis. Also his pbpa against bur was commentary not analysis and was busy work designed to look like he’s scumhunting without actual analysis, which is a common scum trait. Azrael knows better than to call that actual analysis when it’s not.
the fact that he keeps ignoring that I’m calling him out for lack of depth in scumhunting and pretending it’s all about performance is e main reason why I’m not wavering on this anymore.
GJ misrepped the case against himself heavily and you bought his spin. The case was never that he was afraid of me as an analyst. It was that he seemed too incurious about my alignment, too confident in my being townie. Much like KJ was questioning me on my read on him. Like, dude, where is this strong of a read on me coming from, is the sense of it.
And Bur was never intended to be a case. I've mentioned that two or three times already.
I don't arrive at fully formed cases and then try to back-justify them. I read posts, and I think about them, sometimes pondering for several minutes at a time.
Sometimes I think I understand the post. I recognize a pattern. Sometimes I don't, and I ask questions. On a few occasions, I'm just stumped and confused.
If you go back and read the Bur analysis again, you'll find no ultimate conclusions. No calls to take his head off. What you'll find, is a few bits of commentary, interspersed with questions. Because at that point in time, I wasn't sure what to think of him and those posts. Hence, lots of "hmms" and not much commentary.
It's not superficial analysis. It's incomplete. I couldn't get a grip on him.
Later, the lack of satisfactory answers, coupled with subsequent posts, and a very poor voting record, and an attempt to raise a very misplaced language issue as defense, haven't led to much that gives me confidence there afterwards, whatever the role info is that some have been given.
If you want a more accurate read on me, go back and take a second look at it, through that lens.
Correct reads depend on empathy, being able to put yourself in my shoes and understand what I'm thinking and why, whether from a town or scum perspective.
I know you don't respond well to lectures, not trying to be tedious. I wrote an article years ago that sets a lot of this out in more detail. It used to be easily found on the OP, and I suppose a version of it still is, although the nested quotes were broken.
But in it, I talk about how most players start off doing what you're doing, looking for things that seem weird, or anti-town. Tells.
That's fine as far as it goes, but the next level above that, which the best players I've met use, to considerable success, is mindset analysis. It's not dipping litmus paper into water and turning blue every time you see someone, for example, tell a lie. There's the old rule, lynch all liars, right? Seem like a decent rule to catch mafia, right? In actuality, terrible rule.
With mindset analysis, you are trying to think like your enemies, or friends, think. Put yourself in their shoes. Can you understand what they were thinking, when they made that post? Does it seem more likely to come from one alignment, or another? What kinds of emotions, instincts, feelings do you expect from each alignment? Does that change, based on your read of that individual, because every individual is different and unique.
That's where the beauty in the game of mafia comes in. The effort to understand on an intimate level the workings of another mind - even through nothing more than words on a web page. That's the magic. That's what's kept me coming back to this game - the thrill and the challenge of doing that, of trying to understand others.
But here, it feels almost as if I'm in a foreign country. Because most of the people who practiced this art, who know this language, who can pick up those telltale signs and see inside me - they're gone. Dead, retired, out of time, out of willpower.
And I know that without that art, the town is hopelessly outgunned. The rudimentary methods are heavily unsuccessful. When we started this sub, the towns were very unsuccessful. Hardly anyone knew what to look for, how to get a correct read. Town won maybe 20, 25 percent of the time.
Flash forward five or ten years, and the tides had completely changed. The game was well balanced, with even wins on either side. The town's had learned how to do this, how to read mindset.
And in our invitationals? Where you had savants like Iso at play? Multiple 2nd day victories. They literally killed the scum and won the games faster than we could lynch them. One game, we didn't even lose a single townie.
THAT is what an educated, skilled, mindset-analysis wielding town can do. They can work miracles. They can read minds.
I'll see if I can't link that article for you guys. We could use a little bit of that old magic about now.
The only posts I saw containing votes between Grape's count and my own were #2552 (LastWhisper) and #2590 (Vaimes).
Likewise, the only post I saw containing votes between my last count and this one I'm posting right now is Bur's on #2605. (Which, thank you for voting, Bur.)
I don't want to put Az at L-1 though. Should we shoot for a double or settle for just Az?
I mean, we can see if activity will somehow pick up and the no-voters will actually vote for someone, but once it gets to 48 hours until deadline, I would vote Azrael. We can't risk another day of no lynch.
Tammy has said more than once that Azrael’s scumhunting is superficial pointedly referencing the garbage case against gentleman Johnny that was partly azrael fluffing himself about how scared of him Johnny was, that Johnny wasn’t trying to read him when he was, and some horribly superficial analysis. Also his pbpa against bur was commentary not analysis and was busy work designed to look like he’s scumhunting without actual analysis, which is a common scum trait. Azrael knows better than to call that actual analysis when it’s not.
the fact that he keeps ignoring that I’m calling him out for lack of depth in scumhunting and pretending it’s all about performance is e main reason why I’m not wavering on this anymore.
He's not ignoring you calling him out for lack of depth in scumhunting though is he? Pretty sure he has directly addressed that point.
Also, more importantly, the question that I haven't seen you answer (or I forgot lol) is why does that make him scum, vs. town that's possibly not having their best game hunting down scum? Az has also addressed most every other player in the game multiple times, so specifically pointing out GJ and Bur like that as poor feels like a bit of a strawman.
Yeeting Az is just not something we can afford to do, and realistically nobody has made a case against him. Like seriously, look at who's pushing the Az wagon right now.
Honestly Bur's aggro pushing for getting his ability up to speed makes me think more town than not, because I just remembered Mostly Mute Mafia where... Koza? did the same thing as town.
@Az: I'm not saying you should have spent moer time on stuff, I was looking for a summary of your reasoning on Sloth. A conclusion. What you gave me was the raw data. That is, literally, the exact opposite of what I wanted. What I extrapolate from your raw data isn't relevent to YOUR alignment. It tells me very little about your thought process. What data you chose to include might, but that's still me interpreting stuff without any real lead from you as to where you were trying to go.
So lets try this again, without the outburst please. Why is Sloth scum?
*eye twitches violently, shoves cantankerous grumpy old man back in the closet*
I did that big read-through post several days ago where I literally about-faced and said Sloth probably is NOT scum. And why. With post and quote analysis, conclusions, everything. That's what I'm referring to. Not the raw data-dump.
The big time crunch that I'm referring to is that you asked me if I could justify (in addition to Sloth) all my other town reads. So, like, eight people's worth of analysis. That's where I get super twitchy about time commitments.
Why do you think Az is still scum after this post? You never addressed his response, which pretty much shoots down what you were pushing against Az with. But you are still good with voting Az today?
But otherwise, Highroller, Sloth, Cuth, Tubba, this is not a wagon that any other town should seriously be considering.
I still want Az dead. Still debating what to do with my second vote.
At this point, man, just pick someone. You can change your vote later if you change your mind.
Sure. Vote Azrael, Vote Tubba
What is this vote? It's the definition of OMGUS, Bur just picks Az because Az has been pushing them, and Tubba for the easy vote after sitting aside for so long. How does anyone think this wagon is legitimate?
The biggest issue is that there's so many people just kind of hanging around, that the more vocal people are naturally becoming targets of scrutiny. Scummy players like HR are then taking the opportunity to force a mis-yeet once that target gets focused on a town member, and people are just coming along because its something to do I guess.
The worst part is I'm someone who is really bad at actually imposing will on a game. I can analyze and read okay, but actually conveying my thoughts in a way to get people to go along with it is something I have never been good at. But dammit I have to try because this Az wagon is complete horse*****. And if Az is still alive come like Day 6 or something, then sure maybe he actually is a wolf and we yeet him then. But otherwise there are like 7 other people that should be yeeted first.
@Vaimes Why do you feel like you are sleepwalking through the game? I remember you like taking games over in the past, and overall after the beginning of like D1 it feels like you are in a parade car just sort of waving to everyone else while the game happens.
I approve of yeeting: Tubba, Bur, HR, Cuth, KillJoy, Vaimes
I already talked a little bit about this with/at Bur, but I actually think all/most of these are villagers. With a ton of waffling, yes, but still.
I'm a villager.
I liked Tubba's claim and readslist, but he's also the sort of reactionary player who tends to get poe voted out all the time.
I don't like Bur, I just don't see him as part of any sort of team.
Highroller seems town via meta. I don't have any sort of base for how scum!HR would behave, but I think he can get more creative than chasing after a neutral. He doesn't seem the type to struggle with posting content otherwise, could be wrong, shrug shrug.
Cuth has his claim, and I don't think his activity means anything. It's just bad. I'd expect him to be a little more pushy [as scum] since he kind of has a softclear via a dead villager.
KJ just seems like his townself, I don't really have anything specific I can point to. I read a bit of his ISO however many days/weeks ago and he reads pure to me. The ultimate snow, maybe.
With me leaning town on basically all the LHF, I kind of want to kill Az and Boom. I hate having to decide if Az being like, the only person who actively cares about the game is a ploy to make himself unkillable. Sepple burned me with this kind of read so I am actively trying not to care about that specific argument. Maybe I want to kill Sloth too, since he fooled me pretty well last time.
Well if that's the case Az is doing a ******* terrible job at making himself unkillable so far, so I really don't understand where that point is coming from. That would make more sense for someone who is rather vocal with no votes, which doesn't really exist this game.
I read that I bought into Johnny’s spin and didn’t read another word.
I’ll give you a little clue. I didn’t read Johnny’s response to your case until after I read the case myself and decided for myself that your case was garbage. I was looking to your case hoping that if you were right it would help me understand why I suspected Johnny, who I was trying to work out my read on. What I found was utter garbage, and I liked Johnny’s snark at you in return. I also thought your response to him was garbage.
so if you said anything worthwhile after yet again belittling me like I don’t have a brain, I didn’t read it. I doubt you said anything worthwhile or anything that would change my mind.
What this feels like is you’re a dude used to talking down to women and you probably are good intimidating some people, but I don’t have to listen nor will I. (I don’t make this claim or feeling lightly. In ten years of playing mafia, I thought this about exactly one other person. I could be wrong but it doesn’t feel like it.)
I think you’re scum. I think your scumhunting has been superficial. I think the continued deflection to performative is scummy. I don’t think you’re town. I could be wrong I do not care anymore. I will be voting you; I just need to figure out who else to vote for. I won’t read any response to this.
One of my favorite mafia quotes of all time, was by a player who said he could find scum by the way they talk about their favorite movies. And he was right. That is absolutely possible.
Some of my favorite scum cases I've seen, the player was caught on their very first post in the thread. Boom, done, over with.
It's also your window into reading townies. That's how I seek to clear huge swathes of the town on day one, make those mystifying (to KJ) calls on his alignment, and others', based on a smattering of posts. Sometimes that's all it takes if you know what you're looking for.
I'm not trying browbeat you. I'm not trying to impress you. I'm not trying to talk down to you, Tammy. I'm trying to give you the tools to get this right, because I can read that you're town, and I KNOW that you have this wrong.
Can you stop a moment, and try to think through what's going on in my head? What thoughts and objectives I'd have as scum? What thoughts I might have as town? What would come naturally? If you want an accurate read, humor me. Try using that on me, and the rest of the town.
Is scum azrael trying to mislead and confuse you? Is town az trying to teach you? Are there any signs, tells, wording, thoughts, that make one of those two narratives more compelling than the other?
Is scum az trying to impress the town with his work ethic? Mimick his town meta? Or is this a genuine attempt to rescue a floundering town, from an embittered, time starved vet?
Would it be smarter to stay in the background, or the foreground? Is that WIFOM? Does WIFOM make sense here? What looks to be the emotional truth, and do you buy it? How good am I at faking these things? And if I am good, are they still nevertheless more likely or less likely to be true?
These are the kinds of questions that take you from 25 percent to 50 percent. The game is still damn hard, but it gets much easier when you start asking the right questions.
Moreover, Anak, if you really think killing third-parties gives a player towncred, why in the hell are you putting me as the most-suspicious town because of my efforts to kill LastWhisper?
Shouldn't my steadfast efforts to kill a neutral... give me towncred? Shouldn't I be the most town on your list by that very logic?
The worst part is I'm someone who is really bad at actually imposing will on a game. I can analyze and read okay, but actually conveying my thoughts in a way to get people to go along with it is something I have never been good at. But dammit I have to try because this Az wagon is complete horse*****. And if Az is still alive come like Day 6 or something, then sure maybe he actually is a wolf and we yeet him then. But otherwise there are like 7 other people that should be yeeted first.
If I go down, it's all on you, bud.
My secret to doing that thing is just emotion, persistence, and lots of quotes. You've already got the logic bit down, cold.
I read that I bought into Johnny’s spin and didn’t read another word.
I’ll give you a little clue. I didn’t read Johnny’s response to your case until after I read the case myself and decided for myself that your case was garbage. I was looking to your case hoping that if you were right it would help me understand why I suspected Johnny, who I was trying to work out my read on. What I found was utter garbage, and I liked Johnny’s snark at you in return. I also thought your response to him was garbage.
so if you said anything worthwhile after yet again belittling me like I don’t have a brain, I didn’t read it. I doubt you said anything worthwhile or anything that would change my mind.
What this feels like is you’re a dude used to talking down to women and you probably are good intimidating some people, but I don’t have to listen nor will I. (I don’t make this claim or feeling lightly. In ten years of playing mafia, I thought this about exactly one other person. I could be wrong but it doesn’t feel like it.)
I think you’re scum. I think your scumhunting has been superficial. I think the continued deflection to performative is scummy. I don’t think you’re town. I could be wrong I do not care anymore. I will be voting you; I just need to figure out who else to vote for. I won’t read any response to this.
Pain.
I've never talked down to a woman in my entire life, and I'm one of the quietest, most soft-spoken people you'd ever meet.
My IRL job is working with domestic violence victims to secure them free legal services, typically protection orders. We're a private firm, so I get to make the calls on tilting with windmills, even when it doesn't make financial sense. I've seen women starved down to 90 pounds. Padlocked inside their homes for six months. Beaten within an inch of their lives. Nearly killed. Children too. There's so much more suffering out there, than I ever imagined in my well-insulated, safe childhood.
So when you say you're not going to listen, and you're not reading, I know the kind of men you're dealing with. And I'm not offended by you thinking that I'm one of them. Maybe a little sad. But - that's not me.
But one of the things that you see in that field is that pain makes it hard for people to think clearly. Literally. They freeze. They block out memories. They can't recall things from just a few weeks ago, because their mind has defensively blocked those things out.
Something in my behavior has clearly retriggered some kind of bad memories for you, and I apologize for that.
Still, you've got me all wrong, in so many ways. But I understand why.
If LW does NOT successfully kill HR, there is no way on this planet that HR should survive the next day. This mindset of his is essentially open-wolfing at this point.
He was irresponsible as a Farseer monarch, taking an unusually hard line with criminals, Forged ones and people with the Wit. He created the King's Circle, a gladiator-style ring where he pitted any willing warrior or criminal agaisnt a Forged one. He had not been properly taught to rule, being the third son. He saw King's power as something he wanted, like a child who wants toys, and as means to do whatever he wanted.
He became King through a series of convoluted and dangerous plots.
He plotted extensively against the perceived threat of his brothers; it is likely the "accident" that killed former King-in-Waiting Chivalry was instigated by Regal, and he plotted to poison Prince Rurisk of the Mountain Kingdom to make Kettricken sole heir so that eventually he could marry her, instead of Verity.
After Verity married Kettricken and eventually left to seek the aid of the Elderlings, Regal and his Skilled henchmen Justin and Serene killed King Shrewd. Regal imprisoned and killed Fitz (though Burrich figured out how to make this a temporary death); Kettricken fled into the mountains; Regal declared Verity dead and was crowned, though he knew his brother was still alive.
As far as my salt goes, nah. I used to get really angry because I have to make every post a dissertation, and have half the wolf team figured out by page 3, or people think I am not solving. I don't know why I am held to such an absurd standard, but it is what it is.
To sloth, apparently I am not solving enough. Wouldn't even be miffed if he said my solving came off as fake. But to say I am not attempting to solve just makes me furious.
Except now. Because I wear the mask of calmness. There is no anger here.
My dude, I cannot think of a single person that was setting any sorts of special expectations towards you this game, least of all me.
You're mistaking (?) me questioning you on steps I would question anyone on on grounds of bizarre reasoning as me questioning it specifically because it's you - which isn't what's happening.
Or, this is fake outrage brought on by nothing that I can see, which, yeah. Plausible.
Hey Sloth. How good of a scum are you? I need to know how hard to insist the town should listen to my town-read on you.
The worst part is I'm someone who is really bad at actually imposing will on a game. I can analyze and read okay, but actually conveying my thoughts in a way to get people to go along with it is something I have never been good at. But dammit I have to try because this Az wagon is complete horse*****. And if Az is still alive come like Day 6 or something, then sure maybe he actually is a wolf and we yeet him then. But otherwise there are like 7 other people that should be yeeted first.
If I go down, it's all on you, bud.
My secret to doing that thing is just emotion, persistence, and lots of quotes. You've already got the logic bit down, cold.
Oh man, we are ****ed.
And its just always frustrating, because I know what I'm thinking but I just can't articulate it.
Moreover, Anak, if you really think killing third-parties gives a player towncred, why in the hell are you putting me as the most-suspicious town because of my efforts to kill LastWhisper?
Shouldn't my steadfast efforts to kill a neutral... give me towncred? Shouldn't I be the most town on your list by that very logic?
Looks at your ZERO other votes besides me, and wonders why you don't think you have gotten towncred.
You're on the bottom of my list because in your pursuit of Wisp you pretty much derailed the entire game. Reading through the game it was pretty easy to see, Wisp was active and you kept pushing for them. Nobody agreed, Wisp got frustrated (understandably), and you kept pushing. Then town would get put into bad situations because nothing would happen for 75% of a day and all of a sudden a yeet was needed to be chosen. Rinse and repeat, and you get to a gamestate where everyone's checked out because they are simply tired because most of the same things are still being discussed!
I simply refuse to think a vet such as yourself would see the effect you were having on the game by railing against Wisp and as town think, yeah this is good.
Azrael, first of all, kindly cut the Obi-Wan Kenobi act. Obviously you are being belittling, and it's not exclusively to Tammy.
I'm not even going to touch a lot of what went on in that one post you made, I'll leave that to the mods, but keeping to what is particularly relevant to the mafia game, saying someone doesn't agree with you because they're incapable of acting logically is a terrible argument to say the least.
Finally, I'm open-wolfing... How, exactly? By pointing out Anak's total lack of any case against me?
Looks at your ZERO other votes besides me, and wonders why you don't think you have gotten towncred.
Because I've given no one any logical reason to think I'm mafia, probably.
Hell, look at your complete and total lack of a case against me. It's basically just my daring to speak against Azrael, whom you decided around Christmas to be some sort of untouchable authority figure for no reason.
You're on the bottom of my list because in your pursuit of Wisp you pretty much derailed the entire game. Reading through the game it was pretty easy to see, Wisp was active and you kept pushing for them. Nobody agreed, Wisp got frustrated (understandably), and you kept pushing. Then town would get put into bad situations because nothing would happen for 75% of a day and all of a sudden a yeet was needed to be chosen. Rinse and repeat, and you get to a gamestate where everyone's checked out because they are simply tired because most of the same things are still being discussed!
I simply refuse to think a vet such as yourself would see the effect you were having on the game by railing against Wisp and as town think, yeah this is good.
I'm mafia because other people are apathetic? How in the hell does that make sense?
... Azrael, you were talking about Anak's logic? Would you care to show it to me, please?
Bur, you realize that when people like posts, it's basically saying the post reads townie?
I don't think I've ever used "liking" and "town-lean" as synonyms
I'm steadily trending down on Bur.
I've heard of people saying "like" about a player without it meaning that you think the player is townie, just that you like them, but never about a post - and it doesn't make sense in that context, if you don't think the post is townie what is there to like about it?
The numbers thing, as has been said, but there was more to that post that should have been a sticking point?
I can see this being a backtrack. I will follow it.
Sup Bur?
Of note, #231 seems like they're not reading the thread closely and looking for things to knee-jerk jump on (might explain the liking of CC's too).
I mean, I don't like any of Rhand's posts for being incomprehensible, but do I think he's scum for it? No.
And yes, I'm currently skimming the thread for not really having time for deeply reading stuff and for not wanting to drop behind the pulse of the thread.
And being on mobile only right now.
I'll probably reread things more throughly once I actually have time.
@KJ: I don't really believe in RVS votes behind alignment indicative, so picking a wagon of four RVS votes is basically the same as a t random group of 4 people to me.
Always reserve a kernel of doubt on my cases, but I feel like there's so much you can gather from a post like this, given the context and circumstances and how it fits into the rest of the thread.
Bear in mind. This post is made on page 7, just a few days into the start of the game. No one else is having serious fatigue yet, really, even most of our other time-strapped lurkers. The game is still young, still exciting.
But not for Bur. For Bur, this game is already a chore. The analysis feels like work. He's skimming. Trying not to drop too far behind - although the thread really isn't moving all that fast.
He feels the need to reiterate this excuse multiple times, that he doesn't have time. Once, I'd get. Three times? That's more of a nervous tic. There's not having time, and then there's not FEELING like you have a time.
When I read this post, I see myself as scum. Not excited about the role I've drawn. Having to work to go through the motions, not really enjoying the process of having to be deceitful and act. Just trying to get through another day.
Bur usually enjoys the game of mafia. That's why he's stuck around as long as he has, and been our mafia secretary. He likes being town. He likes the game. Not always the most prolific, but it's not like him to burn out so quickly.
Between that and the votes, I don't think this slot is that hard to figure out behaviorally, and while I don't know what info it is that the rest of you have received, I'm very concerned that some piece of mod-bastardry based around the flavor of the Skill is going to be taken uncritically at face value, and a top lynch candidate, a blatant one, really, sails into the endgame based upon uncritical trust of the role mechanics.
Normally you vote people because:
1) you think/know the are scum and want them out of the game
2) want to pressure them
3) RVS
And I think it's bit too late for 3), and since Iso hasn't posted yet, I doubt it's 1) either (unless you have pre-game guilty check on him or something) and in same vain 2) doesn't seem logical.
So why?
I've never been opposed to early dogpiles. That seems slightly more useful to me than my Cantrip vote, in absence of another lead.
Vaimes voting me, is a town tell for me and me only. I've developed a connection with him and from that I gained the ability to tell when vaimes is town or scum.
Why is vaimes voting cantrip, I want him to only vote me #VaimesCheated
Vaimes #107, explain why KJ Wisp and Silver are in your circle?
You're the only yeet for me, baby, I swear.
KJ and Silver are ez reads imo, for kind of similar reasons. I have KJ higher than Siler. Ask me about Wisp later.
-
Extra town points to Tammy for pointing out Chad's BS read on Cantrip (citing multiple posts when he had a grand total of one). Tammy can you please wait for other people to accumulate town points before you go back for seconds.
That's mostly /s, I've liked Sloth except for that "Chad is Chad" read.
Wisp read is controversial as usual but I'm still keeping him as a light townread for raisins.
Vaimes
Tammy KJ Silver
Sloth Cuth Bur wisp
[who cares]
one in GJ/Iso/Az? shrug
Cantrip
Chad
Changed my mind on the Chadtrip partner read, it could really go either way.
Vaimes has always been in my category of people I'm super cautious with as he's not an easy read, but if he's scum in this game, it's just an incredible performance out of him. There's so many little subtleties to this post that signal the wheels of town-behavioral analysis spinning in his head. Things like saying ask him about his LW read later (that he's thinking about the slot, but hasn't made up his mind fully.) Genuine motion, good mix of decisive and well-reasoned town and scum reads.
He's seldom someone who leads the charge, but I think you can pretty decisively town-clear and trust this slot, guys.
Quote from LW »
here I'll fix this, because I don't even know the chances of me hitting my win-con anyways
there is my soft, I am aligned with no one, have fun with that lol
Critical piece here that I'd forgotten on initial read. LW was under no pressure at the time of this claim. Not a single vote against him on this page. He's literally throwing out this info because the win-con doesn't seem like something he can play towards.
I have ABSOLUTELY been in this position as neutral before. Where you signed up for a mafia game, because you wanted to PLAY MAFIA. And then you roll some neutral role, that forces you to NOT do that thing. Some arcane win-con you don't have great tools to figure out and pursue. But here you are, it's the day, you're supposed to be doing *something*. So do you fake your town analysis? Or just get this thing off your chest, let the town do with it as you will, and then you can engage in desultory analysis as you please and hopefully also not worry about the mafia sending a NK your way, because you're a neutral.
I think it would be INCREDIBLY rare for a mafia player to take this tack. And if they did, I think it would be INCREDIBLY difficult for them to give as good of reads and analysis as LW has given us.
So at this point, I think you can very clearly and decisively take off the table the idea that this is a mafia false-claim. That was previously rolling around in the back of my head as a remote possibility, but I think I'm comfortable calling that a dead-end altogether.
What the conditions of him leaving are - well, we'll see. Maybe the mafia get a nasty surprise when he steals a victory right out from under both teams. But the chances of him being mafia - nah. Very, very, very remote.
Quote from KJ »
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
This is a beautiful quote, particularly the "I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it."
But it doesn't just apply to you, KJ. That applies to Every. Single. Player.
Azrael, first of all, kindly cut the Obi-Wan Kenobi act. Obviously you are being belittling, and it's not exclusively to Tammy.
I'm not even going to touch a lot of what went on in that one post you made, I'll leave that to the mods, but keeping to what is particularly relevant to the mafia game, saying someone doesn't agree with you because they're incapable of acting logically is a terrible argument to say the least.
Never came close to saying that, HR.
Some cavalier misrep, that.
Tammy's obviously intelligent, she's made good points in places, but her scum-hunting methods are where just about everyone's mafia methods start off at. She's not alone in that - she's only get singled out, because she's my strongest town-read on this wagon, and the reasoning in places...it's just so darn CORRECTIBLE. Like, there are such easy explanations available, if you just look through the right lens. And because she is so clearly intelligent, and so clearly townie, it is intensely tempting for me to try to mind-meld with that and just bring her across the line to the light side.
But, I did get a bit testy earlier. Sometimes I let that out to help people get a good read on where I'm at mentally, help them read me, but I didn't understand who I was dealing with in this particular case until the misstep was already made, and things that you can safely say/show to some people, you never say to others.
Quote from HR »
Finally, I'm open-wolfing... How, exactly? By pointing out Anak's total lack of any case against me?
Where you're focusing, and what you're not focusing on. Not to mention style of interactions.
Hunting scum? Nope. Scoring cheap rhetoric points, making yourself look good, others look bad? Check. Pointed, revealing questions dodged? Check. Appeals to actually change this behavior from people not on your team serially ignored? Check.
You don't claim to enjoy playing scum, right? I mean, it's evident. I can't blame you, I feel the same whenever I pull it.
Ok, page 8 is a great indicative page too. Gonna leave this to a single page too.
This is where we get the post-LW claim interactions. One of the more solid conversation points that really just begs for discussions and elicits great reactions. Solid breeding ground for tells.
And who comes out of the woodwork to help us get reads on them? Tubba and Cuth!
Go ahead and just straight read through these interactions, either before or after the analysis, to follow the thread of conversation between these two.
Cuth when you're around can you provide like, opinions. I know Tammy is pretty but she doesn't count.
i'm mostly sitting back in my chair and occasionally stirring the contents of the slow-cooker that is my mind
feel like i feel fairly strongly about a few players in the game but don't know what i actually think about them
wisp is one
as is gj
i should probably also read the setup at some point
Nah, actually, I'm going to break in here at this first one.
I'm not picking on Cuth for that last sentence, that's NAI. But this is the kind of statement that is EXTREMELY revealing as to his overall mindset.
He's "sitting back". He's occasionally stiring. These are things you say to set expectations low.
And then, that second sentence. Wow! That second sentence. He feels "fairly strongly" about certain players, but he's not yet certain what he thinks!!
Ladies and gentleman. No more perfect scum confession was ever placed into a mafia thread.
Let's break this down.
Ok, so you're scum. You know you're supposed to have opinions of things, right? That's what townies do? And those opinions are strong? So we'd better tell everyone that we have those things. Strong feelings. Yes, very strong.
Are we going to explain anything about what those strong feelings are, share with our fellow players...Nope.
We're going to throw out a cryptic remark, and mention that later on we'll decide what to think about those people. Love that! Which is just the PERFECT description of how scum go about actually thinking and reading the thread. "Hmmm, that was a notable happening. I'd better have a stance on that of some kind, but darn it, I have no idea what it should be yet, that requires actual thought, and if I wait a bit longer I can see which way the wind is blowing and avoid making any missteps! Fantastic, let's just finish up the post with a cavalier, disarming humorous remark to distract from the fact that I'm not actually participating or giving any reads, and go merrily on my way!"
If I could still edit my old mafia tells article, this would be going STRAIGHT into my examples of scum posting list. Don't even need to see his flip.
It wouldnt be the first time Wisp has made a false claim, nor the firat time they've made a false claim day one. Its not impossible for it to be true, I'm just aful skeptical. Its a chaos play that they would make as either alignment and i dont know what to do with it, so its probably better for me to just disregard it and keep reading them.
And then, look how Tubba and Cuth differ in their interactions on these reads.
Cuth is all like I'm 95% sure this claim is accurate. And Tubba is like "fo shizzle? 95?" Which is much, much more what I expect someone's good, paranoid townie instincts to lead them to. Whereas Cuth? He can very quickly arrive at the correct answer that LW is neutral, because has the cheat code of inside info. This ain't no gambit. So, for once in the thread so far, Cuth is incredibly forthcoming with a strong read. That the claimed neutral, is a neutral. He even engages, uncharacteristically for him in this game, a string of back and forths about it instead of immediately submarining his way back into the depths after doing his obligatory PTAP.
Bottom line: Tubba fairly town(ish), Cuth scum.
Happily, already voting both Bur and Cuth, so no vote changes necessary.
Already posted my top six picks for kills. Already posted my reasoning. One of them admitted he was a hostile outright. Hardly my fault the town can't get its act together enough to actually kill one of them. If you want to blame someone for that, you should blame yourself and your ridiculous strategy that was, in its entirety:
1. Never lynch the serial killer
2. ???
3. Profit
because that was ever going to work.
Scoring cheap rhetoric points, making yourself look good, others look bad? Check. Pointed, revealing questions dodged? Check. Appeals to actually change this behavior from people not on your team serially ignored? Check.
You don't claim to enjoy playing scum, right? I mean, it's evident. I can't blame you, I feel the same whenever I pull it.
I mean, I'm either going to flip town before you die or after, so just keep digging yourself into a hole there with your pretending to be Sherlock Holmes.
Posting reads lists != to hunting scum. You know this. So does everyone else.
The quotient of time and effort you've spent actually thinking about who is and isn't scum, versus just picking at people and arguing?
It's a dead giveaway. The only reason you're not gone today, is that everyone is hoping LW can successfully deal with you, without interference from your teammates.
So if HR, Bur, and Cuth are lock scum...the question is, do we have a 4th mafia, or no? *thinking face* And if we do, who's the deep wolf in my POE?
Not Tammy, not Vaimes, not KJ. Only Sloth if he is SUPER good scum. Anak is totally chilling in my blind spot with the actual logics and sense he's throwing out there, but I need to actually spend some time looking at that slot, simply because I have zero data on it. Literally no recorded posts.
So, Cantrip, Anak, Chad, Bessie, if there's a deep 4th wolf.
That's a doable POE for you guys, right? If you're not sold to change course to Bur/Cuth, I can die in peace now having taken it this far. Maybe switch from thread reread mode over to ISO post mode though, see if I can narrow this further for you guys.
@Vaimes Why do you feel like you are sleepwalking through the game? I remember you like taking games over in the past, and overall after the beginning of like D1 it feels like you are in a parade car just sort of waving to everyone else while the game happens.
You must have me confused with someone else. On the few occasions where I do take over games, only like, once have I ever been right.
I'm kind of hesitant to post because I think the PoE is ~mostly town, I want to yank the game in a completely different direction, but I don't know where and I'm afraid of the potential consequences of that. Y'know.
Posting reads lists != to hunting scum. You know this. So does everyone else.
The quotient of time and effort you've spent actually thinking about who is and isn't scum, versus just picking at people and arguing?
It's a dead giveaway. The only reason you're not gone today, is that everyone is hoping LW can successfully deal with you, without interference from your teammates.
You don't get it, do you?
LastWhisper kills me tonight, he confirms he's mafia lying about his ability. If LastWhisper's ability really drains only 3 vitality from a witted person, then I remain alive. Heads-we-win, tails-you-lose.
If I die somehow and you're still alive, I flip town and you're screwed. Same with Anak. If both of you get taken out before me, even better. Heads-we-win, tails-you-lose.
You're like an anti-Xanatos, you've forced yourself into a situation where you can only die and the town can only benefit, irrespective of what happens to me.
So if HR, Bur, and Cuth are lock scum...the question is, do we have a 4th mafia, or no? *thinking face* And if we do, who's the deep wolf in my POE?
Not Tammy, not Vaimes, not KJ. Only Sloth if he is SUPER good scum. Anak is totally chilling in my blind spot with the actual logics and sense he's throwing out there, but I need to actually spend some time looking at that slot, simply because I have zero data on it. Literally no recorded posts.
So, Cantrip, Anak, Chad, Bessie, if there's a deep 4th wolf.
That's a doable POE for you guys, right? If you're not sold to change course to Bur/Cuth, I can die in peace now having taken it this far. Maybe switch from thread reread mode over to ISO post mode though, see if I can narrow this further for you guys.
Sloth is very slick as scum, so I do suggest rereading him.
Also, strongly requesting that all townies read those Bur and Cuth analysis sections on those prior posts. You've got them dead to rights, along with HR.
I know that's a lot of eye-bleeding and text, and people have been missing things in the big long dreadnought posts, but I don't want anyone to miss those. They're critical to understanding the mindsets going on here.
So if HR, Bur, and Cuth are lock scum...the question is, do we have a 4th mafia, or no? *thinking face* And if we do, who's the deep wolf in my POE?
Not Tammy, not Vaimes, not KJ. Only Sloth if he is SUPER good scum. Anak is totally chilling in my blind spot with the actual logics and sense he's throwing out there, but I need to actually spend some time looking at that slot, simply because I have zero data on it. Literally no recorded posts.
So, Cantrip, Anak, Chad, Bessie, if there's a deep 4th wolf.
That's a doable POE for you guys, right? If you're not sold to change course to Bur/Cuth, I can die in peace now having taken it this far. Maybe switch from thread reread mode over to ISO post mode though, see if I can narrow this further for you guys.
Sloth is very slick as scum, so I do suggest rereading him.
Also, strongly requesting that all townies read those Bur and Cuth analysis sections on those prior posts. You've got them dead to rights, along with HR.
I know that's a lot of eye-bleeding and text, and people have been missing things in the big long dreadnought posts, but I don't want anyone to miss those. They're critical to understanding the mindsets going on here.
I'm skeptical of this type of certainty when town is almost certainly on the verge of losing.
What I would LIKE is for those two to actually show some meaningful signs of participation in the time we have left.
Also, strongly requesting that all townies read those Bur and Cuth analysis sections on those prior posts. You've got them dead to rights, along with HR.
I know that's a lot of eye-bleeding and text, and people have been missing things in the big long dreadnought posts, but I don't want anyone to miss those. They're critical to understanding the mindsets going on here.
I'm skeptical of this type of certainty when town is almost certainly on the verge of losing.
What I would LIKE is for those two to actually show some meaningful signs of participation in the time we have left.
Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeead it. Read it read it read it.
This is what I used to do. Not really who I am anymore, but it's who I was. Whole scum teams routed by end of d1 multiple times, etc. See if the analysis speaks to ya, and make up your own mind.
--
RE: Sloth, yeah, he's good. But I think I may be seeing some distinguishing marks between his playstle, some very subtle things that look like town tells in his posting here that are NOT present in his scum game. Gonna iso that to be sure.
Iso'd it. Still pretty confident standing by that Sloth town read. Small things, don't really want to say what and have me never be able to tell the difference with him in the future, but I see 'em.
But it's usually the small things that are the most trustworthy. Because very few people expect that they need to mimick town behavior down to the smallest of details. Hardly anyone breaks down posts to a granular level of detail, so for most scum it's pointless to try to layer that smaller stuff in, knowing no one's going to pick up on what you're laying down, anyways.
Cantrip/Anak/Boom/Bessie Iso time. Probably the quick cheater version, since it's getting super late, and I don't think it will take long to see if some of the things I'm looking for are there or not for the townies in that group.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
After reading Chad/Bessie, I'm thinking that's where the deep scum is going to be. She did NOT exit the POE for me by adding positive town tells.
Anak is clear. Whew.
That leaves Boom. *reads* Ugh. I like everything he's posting. I don't think he's it. I can't arrive at full certainty though. Especially given his experience/ability.
Between Boom and Chad/Bessie though, I would definitively suggest Bessie as #4 in the lynch order, and Boom back at #5. Reason being, Bessie picked an odd target no one was likely to pursue on her thread entrance, but after that has largely fallen off a cliff. I see one or two posts enabling her to take whatever position she feels she needs to take on me. Main point though, the entrance looks like something she could do to make her activity level look strong without actually taking any flak for it, because Tammy was never going to be lynched off that case. And then following that, she's mostly left the town to its own devices, and hasn't commented nearly as much or as thoroughly as she seems to be capable of doing.
In sum:
Lynch first: Cuthalion, HR, Bur.
Lynch Next: Bessie
Wait, how's the game not over: Only kill Tubba or Boom then.
Never lynch: Sloth, Cantrip, Anak, Tammy, Vaimes, KJ.
@Az: What do you think about Anak's relentless defending you? Does that lean you specifically scum for him at all?
@Anak: Why are you so sure Az is town? Was it his claim? Is that why you're so far in his town camp?
Like your quote says, it's not what he's doing, but how he's doing it. He's doing it assertively, confidently, emotionally, and it reads like someone doing it with true conviction, not to score cheap town cred. And then there's the little details to it that come from a town mentality, such as saying that I'm not necessarily living past the endgame, but that I'm not the lynch for today.
That's good townie instincts and thoughts there, as well as good standard operating procedures. You NEVER fully trust that gifted analyst/vet who has the capability to burn you, you keep your paranoia, but if you're town and they're stirring the pot you wanna keep that and see where it leads. That's dead-on the townie version of that hard defense.
Same thing you see from Boom, on a slightly less loud scale. Doesn't have all the same indicia as anak's version, he goes about it in a less decisive and committed way. Can't give him the same credit as Anak without those tells, although I'd certainly note it'd be pretty easy for him to tip the scales over into a dead Azrael, and there's no indication he's ever even thought of doing that. Not the same indicia, but he's darn self-consistent and I don't see any coherent scum mindset or tactics or strategy stemming out of any of his play decisions.
I'm pretty hopeful on that HR/BUR/Cuth/Bessie grouping at this point. It feels right.
Like your quote says, it's not what he's doing, but how he's doing it. He's doing it assertively, confidently, emotionally, and it reads like someone doing it with true conviction, not to score cheap town cred. And then there's the little details to it that come from a town mentality, such as saying that I'm not necessarily living past the endgame, but that I'm not the lynch for today.
That's good townie instincts and thoughts there, as well as good standard operating procedures. You NEVER fully trust that gifted analyst/vet who has the capability to burn you, you keep your paranoia, but if you're town and they're stirring the pot you wanna keep that and see where it leads. That's dead-on the townie version of that hard defense.
He town-read you his fifth post in, gave no explanation as to why, and has never shown any doubt of you. He's steadfastly defended you at every turn. He's gone against me for challenging your logic in your ridiculous plan that you yourself admitted was flawed, he's gone against the call for you to roleclaim when you were almost lynched the previous day. Again, never once giving a rationale for his unquestioning fealty.
I'm practically about to check Reddit to see if he has a subreddit made to Azrael-Sempai, and yet you claim he's got great operating procedures, totally exercising due skepticism and scrutiny towards you?
I simply cannot resist...
But if LW is taking him out, that's moot.
Sure.
Vote Azrael, Vote Tubba
And the case against me is...
A) I argued with HR about Wisp (Didn't even particularly disagree that we should consider killing him, but had ideas about when and what conditions, but HR disliked my reasoning so I'm scum)
B) Tammy thinks I'm inauthentic, but can't describe that without reference to how it makes her feel, rather than any actual scum motivation or plan or any particular wording
C) ???
The scum team is going to wind up being HR, Bur, Cuth, and LW as neutral or mafia. And it's no accident that 5 out of 5 top scummiest players in the game (I'm including tubba there), all of whom I've pointed out to the town are problematic, are trying to push this mislynch.
Meanwhile, our confirmed townies are milling around aimlessly, waiting for their chance to have the most vocal among their number picked off like fish in a barrel during the night.
the fact that he keeps ignoring that I’m calling him out for lack of depth in scumhunting and pretending it’s all about performance is e main reason why I’m not wavering on this anymore.
I don't want to put Az at L-1 though. Should we shoot for a double or settle for just Az?
GJ misrepped the case against himself heavily and you bought his spin. The case was never that he was afraid of me as an analyst. It was that he seemed too incurious about my alignment, too confident in my being townie. Much like KJ was questioning me on my read on him. Like, dude, where is this strong of a read on me coming from, is the sense of it.
And Bur was never intended to be a case. I've mentioned that two or three times already.
I don't arrive at fully formed cases and then try to back-justify them. I read posts, and I think about them, sometimes pondering for several minutes at a time.
Sometimes I think I understand the post. I recognize a pattern. Sometimes I don't, and I ask questions. On a few occasions, I'm just stumped and confused.
If you go back and read the Bur analysis again, you'll find no ultimate conclusions. No calls to take his head off. What you'll find, is a few bits of commentary, interspersed with questions. Because at that point in time, I wasn't sure what to think of him and those posts. Hence, lots of "hmms" and not much commentary.
It's not superficial analysis. It's incomplete. I couldn't get a grip on him.
Later, the lack of satisfactory answers, coupled with subsequent posts, and a very poor voting record, and an attempt to raise a very misplaced language issue as defense, haven't led to much that gives me confidence there afterwards, whatever the role info is that some have been given.
If you want a more accurate read on me, go back and take a second look at it, through that lens.
Correct reads depend on empathy, being able to put yourself in my shoes and understand what I'm thinking and why, whether from a town or scum perspective.
I know you don't respond well to lectures, not trying to be tedious. I wrote an article years ago that sets a lot of this out in more detail. It used to be easily found on the OP, and I suppose a version of it still is, although the nested quotes were broken.
But in it, I talk about how most players start off doing what you're doing, looking for things that seem weird, or anti-town. Tells.
That's fine as far as it goes, but the next level above that, which the best players I've met use, to considerable success, is mindset analysis. It's not dipping litmus paper into water and turning blue every time you see someone, for example, tell a lie. There's the old rule, lynch all liars, right? Seem like a decent rule to catch mafia, right? In actuality, terrible rule.
With mindset analysis, you are trying to think like your enemies, or friends, think. Put yourself in their shoes. Can you understand what they were thinking, when they made that post? Does it seem more likely to come from one alignment, or another? What kinds of emotions, instincts, feelings do you expect from each alignment? Does that change, based on your read of that individual, because every individual is different and unique.
That's where the beauty in the game of mafia comes in. The effort to understand on an intimate level the workings of another mind - even through nothing more than words on a web page. That's the magic. That's what's kept me coming back to this game - the thrill and the challenge of doing that, of trying to understand others.
But here, it feels almost as if I'm in a foreign country. Because most of the people who practiced this art, who know this language, who can pick up those telltale signs and see inside me - they're gone. Dead, retired, out of time, out of willpower.
And I know that without that art, the town is hopelessly outgunned. The rudimentary methods are heavily unsuccessful. When we started this sub, the towns were very unsuccessful. Hardly anyone knew what to look for, how to get a correct read. Town won maybe 20, 25 percent of the time.
Flash forward five or ten years, and the tides had completely changed. The game was well balanced, with even wins on either side. The town's had learned how to do this, how to read mindset.
And in our invitationals? Where you had savants like Iso at play? Multiple 2nd day victories. They literally killed the scum and won the games faster than we could lynch them. One game, we didn't even lose a single townie.
THAT is what an educated, skilled, mindset-analysis wielding town can do. They can work miracles. They can read minds.
I'll see if I can't link that article for you guys. We could use a little bit of that old magic about now.
Likewise, the only post I saw containing votes between my last count and this one I'm posting right now is Bur's on #2605. (Which, thank you for voting, Bur.)
Please tell me if I'm incorrect.
Unofficial vote count:
Az (6): Highroller, Sloth, Cuth, Tubba, LastWhisper, Bur
Tubba (4): Cuth, BoomFrog, LastWhisper, Bur
Wisp (2): Highroller, Sloth
Bur (1): Az
Cuth (2): Tubba, Az
Vaimes (1): BoomFrog
BoomFrog (1): Vaimes
Sloth (1): Vaimes
Not voting (5): Anak, Cantrip, Bessie, KJ, Tammy
With 14 alive majority is 8.
According to the clock, at the time of this post, there are 3 days, 20 hours left.
I mean, we can see if activity will somehow pick up and the no-voters will actually vote for someone, but once it gets to 48 hours until deadline, I would vote Azrael. We can't risk another day of no lynch.
He's not ignoring you calling him out for lack of depth in scumhunting though is he? Pretty sure he has directly addressed that point.
Also, more importantly, the question that I haven't seen you answer (or I forgot lol) is why does that make him scum, vs. town that's possibly not having their best game hunting down scum? Az has also addressed most every other player in the game multiple times, so specifically pointing out GJ and Bur like that as poor feels like a bit of a strawman.
Yeeting Az is just not something we can afford to do, and realistically nobody has made a case against him. Like seriously, look at who's pushing the Az wagon right now.
Highroller, Sloth, Cuth, Tubba, LastWhisper, Tammy, KJ
Tammy's pretty town, but the rest of this wagon is just terrible. KJ's hop on with #2608 is just awful, also KJ
Why do you think Az is still scum after this post? You never addressed his response, which pretty much shoots down what you were pushing against Az with. But you are still good with voting Az today?
But otherwise, Highroller, Sloth, Cuth, Tubba, this is not a wagon that any other town should seriously be considering.
What is this vote? It's the definition of OMGUS, Bur just picks Az because Az has been pushing them, and Tubba for the easy vote after sitting aside for so long. How does anyone think this wagon is legitimate?
The biggest issue is that there's so many people just kind of hanging around, that the more vocal people are naturally becoming targets of scrutiny. Scummy players like HR are then taking the opportunity to force a mis-yeet once that target gets focused on a town member, and people are just coming along because its something to do I guess.
The worst part is I'm someone who is really bad at actually imposing will on a game. I can analyze and read okay, but actually conveying my thoughts in a way to get people to go along with it is something I have never been good at. But dammit I have to try because this Az wagon is complete horse*****. And if Az is still alive come like Day 6 or something, then sure maybe he actually is a wolf and we yeet him then. But otherwise there are like 7 other people that should be yeeted first.
@Vaimes Why do you feel like you are sleepwalking through the game? I remember you like taking games over in the past, and overall after the beginning of like D1 it feels like you are in a parade car just sort of waving to everyone else while the game happens.
Well if that's the case Az is doing a ******* terrible job at making himself unkillable so far, so I really don't understand where that point is coming from. That would make more sense for someone who is rather vocal with no votes, which doesn't really exist this game.
That Az vote is just terrible.
I’ll give you a little clue. I didn’t read Johnny’s response to your case until after I read the case myself and decided for myself that your case was garbage. I was looking to your case hoping that if you were right it would help me understand why I suspected Johnny, who I was trying to work out my read on. What I found was utter garbage, and I liked Johnny’s snark at you in return. I also thought your response to him was garbage.
so if you said anything worthwhile after yet again belittling me like I don’t have a brain, I didn’t read it. I doubt you said anything worthwhile or anything that would change my mind.
What this feels like is you’re a dude used to talking down to women and you probably are good intimidating some people, but I don’t have to listen nor will I. (I don’t make this claim or feeling lightly. In ten years of playing mafia, I thought this about exactly one other person. I could be wrong but it doesn’t feel like it.)
I think you’re scum. I think your scumhunting has been superficial. I think the continued deflection to performative is scummy. I don’t think you’re town. I could be wrong I do not care anymore. I will be voting you; I just need to figure out who else to vote for. I won’t read any response to this.
Some of my favorite scum cases I've seen, the player was caught on their very first post in the thread. Boom, done, over with.
It's also your window into reading townies. That's how I seek to clear huge swathes of the town on day one, make those mystifying (to KJ) calls on his alignment, and others', based on a smattering of posts. Sometimes that's all it takes if you know what you're looking for.
I'm not trying browbeat you. I'm not trying to impress you. I'm not trying to talk down to you, Tammy. I'm trying to give you the tools to get this right, because I can read that you're town, and I KNOW that you have this wrong.
Can you stop a moment, and try to think through what's going on in my head? What thoughts and objectives I'd have as scum? What thoughts I might have as town? What would come naturally? If you want an accurate read, humor me. Try using that on me, and the rest of the town.
Is scum azrael trying to mislead and confuse you? Is town az trying to teach you? Are there any signs, tells, wording, thoughts, that make one of those two narratives more compelling than the other?
Is scum az trying to impress the town with his work ethic? Mimick his town meta? Or is this a genuine attempt to rescue a floundering town, from an embittered, time starved vet?
Would it be smarter to stay in the background, or the foreground? Is that WIFOM? Does WIFOM make sense here? What looks to be the emotional truth, and do you buy it? How good am I at faking these things? And if I am good, are they still nevertheless more likely or less likely to be true?
These are the kinds of questions that take you from 25 percent to 50 percent. The game is still damn hard, but it gets much easier when you start asking the right questions.
Because as far as I can tell, the only arguments you've ever made against me are:
1. I disagreed with Azrael with regards to LW, despite being "probably right" about Wisp.
2. I am a mafia trying to kill Wisp to gain towncred, something you've said twice despite the fact that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, you don't gain towncred for killing third parties.
And that's it. Yet somehow I'm on the bottom of your player list based on just that.
Hey Wisp? If you're actually serious about helping the town, kill Anak tonight. He's Witted.
Unofficial vote count:
Az (6): Highroller, Sloth, Cuth, Tubba, LastWhisper, Bur
Tubba (4): Cuth, BoomFrog, LastWhisper, Bur
Wisp (2): Highroller, Sloth
Bur (2): Az, Anak
Cuth (2): Tubba, Az
Vaimes (1): BoomFrog
BoomFrog (1): Vaimes
Sloth (1): Vaimes
Highroller (1): Anak
Not voting (4): Cantrip, Bessie, KJ, Tammy
With 14 alive majority is 8.
Shouldn't my steadfast efforts to kill a neutral... give me towncred? Shouldn't I be the most town on your list by that very logic?
If I go down, it's all on you, bud.
My secret to doing that thing is just emotion, persistence, and lots of quotes. You've already got the logic bit down, cold.
Pain.
I've never talked down to a woman in my entire life, and I'm one of the quietest, most soft-spoken people you'd ever meet.
My IRL job is working with domestic violence victims to secure them free legal services, typically protection orders. We're a private firm, so I get to make the calls on tilting with windmills, even when it doesn't make financial sense. I've seen women starved down to 90 pounds. Padlocked inside their homes for six months. Beaten within an inch of their lives. Nearly killed. Children too. There's so much more suffering out there, than I ever imagined in my well-insulated, safe childhood.
So when you say you're not going to listen, and you're not reading, I know the kind of men you're dealing with. And I'm not offended by you thinking that I'm one of them. Maybe a little sad. But - that's not me.
But one of the things that you see in that field is that pain makes it hard for people to think clearly. Literally. They freeze. They block out memories. They can't recall things from just a few weeks ago, because their mind has defensively blocked those things out.
Something in my behavior has clearly retriggered some kind of bad memories for you, and I apologize for that.
Still, you've got me all wrong, in so many ways. But I understand why.
Chapter 1 - Causal Analysis
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dXEWDnsGnR5PWzelWs1AZ90zwRvtxZsUDDv4064RWTU/pub
Chapter 2 - Evaluating the Strength of Evidence
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pjt1j8X7Xsd8wNc6jp9tMDmDNkoJ2I0oBw0ZVpqvy4c/pub
For whoever's interested - although I doubt it will be much use to 2-4 of those already voting me, given their alignments.
https://theplenty.net/wiki/index.php/Regal
Excerpt:
He was irresponsible as a Farseer monarch, taking an unusually hard line with criminals, Forged ones and people with the Wit. He created the King's Circle, a gladiator-style ring where he pitted any willing warrior or criminal agaisnt a Forged one. He had not been properly taught to rule, being the third son. He saw King's power as something he wanted, like a child who wants toys, and as means to do whatever he wanted.
He became King through a series of convoluted and dangerous plots.
He plotted extensively against the perceived threat of his brothers; it is likely the "accident" that killed former King-in-Waiting Chivalry was instigated by Regal, and he plotted to poison Prince Rurisk of the Mountain Kingdom to make Kettricken sole heir so that eventually he could marry her, instead of Verity.
After Verity married Kettricken and eventually left to seek the aid of the Elderlings, Regal and his Skilled henchmen Justin and Serene killed King Shrewd. Regal imprisoned and killed Fitz (though Burrich figured out how to make this a temporary death); Kettricken fled into the mountains; Regal declared Verity dead and was crowned, though he knew his brother was still alive.
Hey Sloth. How good of a scum are you? I need to know how hard to insist the town should listen to my town-read on you.
Oh man, we are ****ed.
And its just always frustrating, because I know what I'm thinking but I just can't articulate it.
Looks at your ZERO other votes besides me, and wonders why you don't think you have gotten towncred.
You're on the bottom of my list because in your pursuit of Wisp you pretty much derailed the entire game. Reading through the game it was pretty easy to see, Wisp was active and you kept pushing for them. Nobody agreed, Wisp got frustrated (understandably), and you kept pushing. Then town would get put into bad situations because nothing would happen for 75% of a day and all of a sudden a yeet was needed to be chosen. Rinse and repeat, and you get to a gamestate where everyone's checked out because they are simply tired because most of the same things are still being discussed!
I simply refuse to think a vet such as yourself would see the effect you were having on the game by railing against Wisp and as town think, yeah this is good.
I'm not even going to touch a lot of what went on in that one post you made, I'll leave that to the mods, but keeping to what is particularly relevant to the mafia game, saying someone doesn't agree with you because they're incapable of acting logically is a terrible argument to say the least.
Finally, I'm open-wolfing... How, exactly? By pointing out Anak's total lack of any case against me?
Ok, fine, point out where I'm wrong.
Hell, look at your complete and total lack of a case against me. It's basically just my daring to speak against Azrael, whom you decided around Christmas to be some sort of untouchable authority figure for no reason.
I'm mafia because other people are apathetic? How in the hell does that make sense?
... Azrael, you were talking about Anak's logic? Would you care to show it to me, please?
Always reserve a kernel of doubt on my cases, but I feel like there's so much you can gather from a post like this, given the context and circumstances and how it fits into the rest of the thread.
Bear in mind. This post is made on page 7, just a few days into the start of the game. No one else is having serious fatigue yet, really, even most of our other time-strapped lurkers. The game is still young, still exciting.
But not for Bur. For Bur, this game is already a chore. The analysis feels like work. He's skimming. Trying not to drop too far behind - although the thread really isn't moving all that fast.
He feels the need to reiterate this excuse multiple times, that he doesn't have time. Once, I'd get. Three times? That's more of a nervous tic. There's not having time, and then there's not FEELING like you have a time.
When I read this post, I see myself as scum. Not excited about the role I've drawn. Having to work to go through the motions, not really enjoying the process of having to be deceitful and act. Just trying to get through another day.
Bur usually enjoys the game of mafia. That's why he's stuck around as long as he has, and been our mafia secretary. He likes being town. He likes the game. Not always the most prolific, but it's not like him to burn out so quickly.
Between that and the votes, I don't think this slot is that hard to figure out behaviorally, and while I don't know what info it is that the rest of you have received, I'm very concerned that some piece of mod-bastardry based around the flavor of the Skill is going to be taken uncritically at face value, and a top lynch candidate, a blatant one, really, sails into the endgame based upon uncritical trust of the role mechanics.
Vaimes has always been in my category of people I'm super cautious with as he's not an easy read, but if he's scum in this game, it's just an incredible performance out of him. There's so many little subtleties to this post that signal the wheels of town-behavioral analysis spinning in his head. Things like saying ask him about his LW read later (that he's thinking about the slot, but hasn't made up his mind fully.) Genuine motion, good mix of decisive and well-reasoned town and scum reads.
He's seldom someone who leads the charge, but I think you can pretty decisively town-clear and trust this slot, guys.
Critical piece here that I'd forgotten on initial read. LW was under no pressure at the time of this claim. Not a single vote against him on this page. He's literally throwing out this info because the win-con doesn't seem like something he can play towards.
I have ABSOLUTELY been in this position as neutral before. Where you signed up for a mafia game, because you wanted to PLAY MAFIA. And then you roll some neutral role, that forces you to NOT do that thing. Some arcane win-con you don't have great tools to figure out and pursue. But here you are, it's the day, you're supposed to be doing *something*. So do you fake your town analysis? Or just get this thing off your chest, let the town do with it as you will, and then you can engage in desultory analysis as you please and hopefully also not worry about the mafia sending a NK your way, because you're a neutral.
I think it would be INCREDIBLY rare for a mafia player to take this tack. And if they did, I think it would be INCREDIBLY difficult for them to give as good of reads and analysis as LW has given us.
So at this point, I think you can very clearly and decisively take off the table the idea that this is a mafia false-claim. That was previously rolling around in the back of my head as a remote possibility, but I think I'm comfortable calling that a dead-end altogether.
What the conditions of him leaving are - well, we'll see. Maybe the mafia get a nasty surprise when he steals a victory right out from under both teams. But the chances of him being mafia - nah. Very, very, very remote.
This is a beautiful quote, particularly the "I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it."
But it doesn't just apply to you, KJ. That applies to Every. Single. Player.
Never came close to saying that, HR.
Some cavalier misrep, that.
Tammy's obviously intelligent, she's made good points in places, but her scum-hunting methods are where just about everyone's mafia methods start off at. She's not alone in that - she's only get singled out, because she's my strongest town-read on this wagon, and the reasoning in places...it's just so darn CORRECTIBLE. Like, there are such easy explanations available, if you just look through the right lens. And because she is so clearly intelligent, and so clearly townie, it is intensely tempting for me to try to mind-meld with that and just bring her across the line to the light side.
But, I did get a bit testy earlier. Sometimes I let that out to help people get a good read on where I'm at mentally, help them read me, but I didn't understand who I was dealing with in this particular case until the misstep was already made, and things that you can safely say/show to some people, you never say to others.
Where you're focusing, and what you're not focusing on. Not to mention style of interactions.
Hunting scum? Nope. Scoring cheap rhetoric points, making yourself look good, others look bad? Check. Pointed, revealing questions dodged? Check. Appeals to actually change this behavior from people not on your team serially ignored? Check.
You don't claim to enjoy playing scum, right? I mean, it's evident. I can't blame you, I feel the same whenever I pull it.
This is where we get the post-LW claim interactions. One of the more solid conversation points that really just begs for discussions and elicits great reactions. Solid breeding ground for tells.
And who comes out of the woodwork to help us get reads on them? Tubba and Cuth!
Go ahead and just straight read through these interactions, either before or after the analysis, to follow the thread of conversation between these two.
Nah, actually, I'm going to break in here at this first one.
I'm not picking on Cuth for that last sentence, that's NAI. But this is the kind of statement that is EXTREMELY revealing as to his overall mindset.
He's "sitting back". He's occasionally stiring. These are things you say to set expectations low.
And then, that second sentence. Wow! That second sentence. He feels "fairly strongly" about certain players, but he's not yet certain what he thinks!!
Ladies and gentleman. No more perfect scum confession was ever placed into a mafia thread.
Let's break this down.
Ok, so you're scum. You know you're supposed to have opinions of things, right? That's what townies do? And those opinions are strong? So we'd better tell everyone that we have those things. Strong feelings. Yes, very strong.
Are we going to explain anything about what those strong feelings are, share with our fellow players...Nope.
We're going to throw out a cryptic remark, and mention that later on we'll decide what to think about those people. Love that! Which is just the PERFECT description of how scum go about actually thinking and reading the thread. "Hmmm, that was a notable happening. I'd better have a stance on that of some kind, but darn it, I have no idea what it should be yet, that requires actual thought, and if I wait a bit longer I can see which way the wind is blowing and avoid making any missteps! Fantastic, let's just finish up the post with a cavalier, disarming humorous remark to distract from the fact that I'm not actually participating or giving any reads, and go merrily on my way!"
If I could still edit my old mafia tells article, this would be going STRAIGHT into my examples of scum posting list. Don't even need to see his flip.
And then, look how Tubba and Cuth differ in their interactions on these reads.
Cuth is all like I'm 95% sure this claim is accurate. And Tubba is like "fo shizzle? 95?" Which is much, much more what I expect someone's good, paranoid townie instincts to lead them to. Whereas Cuth? He can very quickly arrive at the correct answer that LW is neutral, because has the cheat code of inside info. This ain't no gambit. So, for once in the thread so far, Cuth is incredibly forthcoming with a strong read. That the claimed neutral, is a neutral. He even engages, uncharacteristically for him in this game, a string of back and forths about it instead of immediately submarining his way back into the depths after doing his obligatory PTAP.
Bottom line: Tubba fairly town(ish), Cuth scum.
Happily, already voting both Bur and Cuth, so no vote changes necessary.
1. Never lynch the serial killer
2. ???
3. Profit
because that was ever going to work.
I mean, I'm either going to flip town before you die or after, so just keep digging yourself into a hole there with your pretending to be Sherlock Holmes.
This is a final warning.
The quotient of time and effort you've spent actually thinking about who is and isn't scum, versus just picking at people and arguing?
It's a dead giveaway. The only reason you're not gone today, is that everyone is hoping LW can successfully deal with you, without interference from your teammates.
Not Tammy, not Vaimes, not KJ. Only Sloth if he is SUPER good scum. Anak is totally chilling in my blind spot with the actual logics and sense he's throwing out there, but I need to actually spend some time looking at that slot, simply because I have zero data on it. Literally no recorded posts.
So, Cantrip, Anak, Chad, Bessie, if there's a deep 4th wolf.
That's a doable POE for you guys, right? If you're not sold to change course to Bur/Cuth, I can die in peace now having taken it this far. Maybe switch from thread reread mode over to ISO post mode though, see if I can narrow this further for you guys.
I'm kind of hesitant to post because I think the PoE is ~mostly town, I want to yank the game in a completely different direction, but I don't know where and I'm afraid of the potential consequences of that. Y'know.
LastWhisper kills me tonight, he confirms he's mafia lying about his ability. If LastWhisper's ability really drains only 3 vitality from a witted person, then I remain alive. Heads-we-win, tails-you-lose.
If I die somehow and you're still alive, I flip town and you're screwed. Same with Anak. If both of you get taken out before me, even better. Heads-we-win, tails-you-lose.
You're like an anti-Xanatos, you've forced yourself into a situation where you can only die and the town can only benefit, irrespective of what happens to me.
But keep on giving that dissertation of yours.
I know that's a lot of eye-bleeding and text, and people have been missing things in the big long dreadnought posts, but I don't want anyone to miss those. They're critical to understanding the mindsets going on here.
Thanks, noted.
I mean, lynching you at some point works for me too.
What I would LIKE is for those two to actually show some meaningful signs of participation in the time we have left.
Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeead it. Read it read it read it.
This is what I used to do. Not really who I am anymore, but it's who I was. Whole scum teams routed by end of d1 multiple times, etc. See if the analysis speaks to ya, and make up your own mind.
--
RE: Sloth, yeah, he's good. But I think I may be seeing some distinguishing marks between his playstle, some very subtle things that look like town tells in his posting here that are NOT present in his scum game. Gonna iso that to be sure.
But it's usually the small things that are the most trustworthy. Because very few people expect that they need to mimick town behavior down to the smallest of details. Hardly anyone breaks down posts to a granular level of detail, so for most scum it's pointless to try to layer that smaller stuff in, knowing no one's going to pick up on what you're laying down, anyways.
@Az: What do you think about Anak's relentless defending you? Does that lean you specifically scum for him at all?
@Anak: Why are you so sure Az is town? Was it his claim? Is that why you're so far in his town camp?
After reading Chad/Bessie, I'm thinking that's where the deep scum is going to be. She did NOT exit the POE for me by adding positive town tells.
Anak is clear. Whew.
That leaves Boom. *reads* Ugh. I like everything he's posting. I don't think he's it. I can't arrive at full certainty though. Especially given his experience/ability.
Between Boom and Chad/Bessie though, I would definitively suggest Bessie as #4 in the lynch order, and Boom back at #5. Reason being, Bessie picked an odd target no one was likely to pursue on her thread entrance, but after that has largely fallen off a cliff. I see one or two posts enabling her to take whatever position she feels she needs to take on me. Main point though, the entrance looks like something she could do to make her activity level look strong without actually taking any flak for it, because Tammy was never going to be lynched off that case. And then following that, she's mostly left the town to its own devices, and hasn't commented nearly as much or as thoroughly as she seems to be capable of doing.
In sum:
Lynch first: Cuthalion, HR, Bur.
Lynch Next: Bessie
Wait, how's the game not over: Only kill Tubba or Boom then.
Never lynch: Sloth, Cantrip, Anak, Tammy, Vaimes, KJ.
Then tell me whether or not you buy into this idea that Azrael is some sort of mafia Amadeus. I dare you.
This is a mafia who is dead to right grasping at straws.
Like your quote says, it's not what he's doing, but how he's doing it. He's doing it assertively, confidently, emotionally, and it reads like someone doing it with true conviction, not to score cheap town cred. And then there's the little details to it that come from a town mentality, such as saying that I'm not necessarily living past the endgame, but that I'm not the lynch for today.
That's good townie instincts and thoughts there, as well as good standard operating procedures. You NEVER fully trust that gifted analyst/vet who has the capability to burn you, you keep your paranoia, but if you're town and they're stirring the pot you wanna keep that and see where it leads. That's dead-on the townie version of that hard defense.
Same thing you see from Boom, on a slightly less loud scale. Doesn't have all the same indicia as anak's version, he goes about it in a less decisive and committed way. Can't give him the same credit as Anak without those tells, although I'd certainly note it'd be pretty easy for him to tip the scales over into a dead Azrael, and there's no indication he's ever even thought of doing that. Not the same indicia, but he's darn self-consistent and I don't see any coherent scum mindset or tactics or strategy stemming out of any of his play decisions.
I'm pretty hopeful on that HR/BUR/Cuth/Bessie grouping at this point. It feels right.
I'm practically about to check Reddit to see if he has a subreddit made to Azrael-Sempai, and yet you claim he's got great operating procedures, totally exercising due skepticism and scrutiny towards you?
You really expect us to buy this?