Just lock him in tbh, I highly doubt we ever get the chance to seriously re-eval him anyways if the situation is as dire numbers-wise as you seem to think it is
i think it's worth noting, btw, that terraine is the one read that me and tom have disagreeed over the most this game - he's consistently had her lower than i have
given that he knows her better, that may be worth paying more attention to
i assume triss would shoot... i have no idea, actually, but not star given she probably needs the PoE buffer
and i'd need to reread to see who star would shoot but certainly not herself lol
Why would anybody shoot star
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
if you're carrow and you think to HAVE to hit a wolf to have a chance, you might wanna shoot star if you don't think you need the PoE buffer
which maybe only makes sense if the carrow is someone deeper like lagoon?
i assume triss would shoot... i have no idea, actually, but not star given she probably needs the PoE buffer
and i'd need to reread to see who star would shoot but certainly not herself lol
Why would anybody shoot star
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
Like
From the SK's point of view
The absolute best case scenario is to kill a scum without putting themselves at risk of being lynched
Unless the SK is exactly me and I'm afraid of being, like, spk'd or fear-killed over some of the vague statements I've made regarding my role, the SK knows the Mafia are never going to attack them at night over the mechconfirmed town
So why would they ever kill Starling and risk the town snaps onto them next? Even goo, who I think is safest amongst the non-clears, has no reason to do that when they could shoot literally anywhere else in the PoE and still see a scum lynch tomorrow with no risk to themselves should somebody re-evaluate
Or they could just go for the people essentially giving out BPVs
Both kills last night are way better for literally any possible SK to make than a Starling kill would have been
i assume triss would shoot... i have no idea, actually, but not star given she probably needs the PoE buffer
and i'd need to reread to see who star would shoot but certainly not herself lol
Why would anybody shoot star
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
if you're carrow and you think to HAVE to hit a wolf to have a chance, you might wanna shoot star if you don't think you need the PoE buffer
which maybe only makes sense if the carrow is someone deeper like lagoon?
idk though
I addressed this but literally the only possible SK that would be deep enough to justify that is me
Even lagoon has no reason to do so when it always saves them a day from the lynch and they have no reason to fear the nightkill
"I don't think Gibbon liked the idea of waiting up there alone for Dumbledore, because he came running back downstairs to rejoin the fight and was hit by a Killing Curse that just missed me."
HBP, pg. 619"
I just realized that Osie made a joke here. Fair play.
------------
Possible kill sources of:
Each Odd Night phase, as a Night action, you may poison a player. (SK Carrow)
Mafia factional kill (assuming it exists)
Jackrito's vigi shot
Possible other Carrow kill, might be even nights only
Possible extra kill potential from mafia?
-D1
Alright so first yeet of the game was Konan, who was Gibbon, Town Vanilla. I'm not going to sit here and try to figure this nonsense out, it was a yeet of a slot that had just replaced out and people were being silly.
Then we had, for N1 kills;
Fulcrum the Carrow SK Poisoner
Whisper, our now returned Riddle
and ZDS, Avery the Town aligned Gravedigger
Personally, I consider both Fulcrum and Whisper to be very experienced players who hold a lot of sway, and that opinion at least seems to bear out across sites?
Given that there is (probably?) no rolecop stuff here for the N1 actions that would determine where a kill should go before actions were submitted, I would assume both of these players were killed due to their potential influence on the game.
ZDS I have no goddamn clue tbh. They were marked as V/LA in Osie's modposts the entirety of D1, and I don't recall anything specific about them at all, beyond that people kept abbreviating their username and it took me a while before I auto-translated it.
-D2
Tubba was modkilled, le shrug.
Deadbananas was yeeted, another replacement that was yeeted day of, was Town IC/Upgrader
We got Whisper back, so yay!
N2 kills were Jackrito the Town "(I do all the things but might not get to choose which, and I can only do it once, but) I did shoot a guy"; and Sloth who was apparently Town Puppy, except they were actually Town Alignment Cop.
Jack shot..... ZDS. I still don't know why this was the shot but ok, maybe Jack wanted to RB them instead or something. I would assume that scum knew Jack wasn't theirs, same for SKs, and therefore yeet the vigilante-role who might be lying about not being able to NK again.
Sloth (reading this backwards)....played around with TerRaine and Lagoon, was offended that they would be read as scum with Orange (...I think?), was having issues sounding out TerRaine, voted DeadBananas, didn't like my posts on D2....
Oh, they were becoming one of the leading voices in the thread. Rhand was voting them, but I'm not seeing a whole lot else against them that people would seem likely to heavily consider. Guessing this is the reason for their death N2.
-D3
Starling lynch, but WAIT, it was Axelrod all along!
N3 kills are are Rhand, Town Doc, but WAIT, he was Town Riddle this time!
Also WakeMeUp, Town Vanilla.
At this point there actually seems to be some chance that a mafia role cop could possibly influence the decisions here, technically they could N2 as well but I figure that unless there's more than one of them it would be unlikely to shift things too far, barring a lucky target N1.
However since the kills were a sudo-confirmed Riddle by daychat, and a vanilla townie, I would assume that any role copping was either at targets who died before N3, or simply found less attractive targets than these two which.... is weird if so.
Also this is assuming there's a maf cop at all which is a shot in the dark itself so.... eh?
...Would Whisper have flipped actual alignment if they died again? Like this sorta confirms them anyway, Rhand dying, but i guess it's still in question technically.... I dunno, I think I would have gone for Whisper instead in mafia's shoes, if the earlier logic of leading voices is true. Maybe I just don't know Rhand as well as I know Whisper.
WakeMeUp doesn't make sense as a leading voice, a hidden PR (unless they crumbed it and I didn't notice but someone else did), a confirmed town, someone not being scumread by at least some people, a rolecop catch, or being overly active.
I suppose being scumread is probably the reason? Maybe mafia thought they were the Carrow, or the Carrow thought they were mafia. Nobody is claiming having shot otherwise so... process of elimination I guess. *shrug*
Okay I have two issues with this
1. What leads you to spend a decent chunk of time focusing on a Mafia Role Cop in particular? Considering none of the kills except for Sloth have been on unclaimed Town PRs, it does seem weird to jump there so readily.
2. That's cool and all, but I'm specifically seeking your insight on which kill each night you think is scum, and which you think is Carrow - unless you believe there's unclaimed town KP as well, but at this point I'm personally not feeling that one to be likely. As such, I'd appreciate if you would look over Jackrito/Sloth and Rhand/WMU and put forward which faction you think would have been most likely to carry out each kill, as well as your reasons for believing so. This isn't some sort of "gotcha" where I have something to pull on you - I'm just trying to get into your headspace, and this feels like the best middle ground to meet you on. Sound good to you?
@Rodemy
"I would have stopped the nk if Amy was it?"
......Wait I thought mafia does factional kills in this varient of the genre, how would this help? Unless you mean that she could have been the other carrow in which case... wut.
so fellas
i just confirmed that the mafia team does in fact have to designate a member of their team to carry the nightkill
to what degree do we buy this as a not-mafia slip
They say they come from ToS/ToL, which both have role-related KP
A: scum claiming Masons here is liable to net a SK kill, outing them both
B: why would it be Amy over tom? Both are essentially equally likely, so you're already giving yourself a coin toss here even if we ignore A
C: The mason claims are effectively self-resolving, as scum can't possibly afford to let both live to LyLo, so even if you really thought they were scum why bother trying to shoot there anyways tbh
Terry and Ter have both talked about Star as if they are a confirmed wolf, but like I said, Ter's reaction is probably more of a DLP thing, and Terry's is probably an ego/experience thing
Terry and Ter have both talked about Star as if they are a confirmed wolf, but like I said, Ter's reaction is probably more of a DLP thing, and Terry's is probably an ego/experience thing
I'm Peter Pettigrew/Wormtail. At night I get to guess who half of you will being voting for at EoD the next Day phase. If I guess right on a player that particular player can't kill me at night.
I have that charmingly ominous less worries comment when it comes to dark mark.
I'm BAD at guessing.
Wait
You have a role that prevents people from killing you if you correctly predict their votes...
...and get a BPV if you're given a dark mark?
That seems incredibly redundant and idk I buy osie actually makes that tbh
Terry and Ter have both talked about Star as if they are a confirmed wolf, but like I said, Ter's reaction is probably more of a DLP thing, and Terry's is probably an ego/experience thing
/shrug
to be fair
they are
wish I could have this conviction honestly
Genuine question
What's the holdup
I get it in general but I personally believe that people always and without fail show their true colors when their death is certain, and in Starling's case, he clammed up until called out on it then tried to save face
Why is Triss a wolf? like I could say the same thing to you in vice versa?
Because I think outside me, anyone claiming Triss is town is stretching it, and anyone claiming Triss is a wolf needs to tell me what makes them a wolf outside they post a lot of mechanical stuff, not that in itself can't be wolfy.
I’ve put a lot of reasons why Triss is scum into the thread, but I have a new one. The Rhand shot. How do I say this, nicely? It wasn’t a great plan. The Rhand shot basically confirms LW and Rod as town. It leaves two confirmed masons alive. With the Rhand/LW/Rod triangle unconfirmed by any hard data, there was a chance they could have been coordinating scum. If we have three scum, I’m pretty sure it’s Triss/Starling with dead Tubba. If there’s four scum and two sks and a vig and a cult (riddles) in this set up, I think it’s a bit stacked against the town, but that’s mod gamey so don’t put a ton of faith into that.
...I feel some sort of way about this.
if that way happens to involve thinking it's nonsense with a side of "does this TMI rodemy as town" then you've borrowed my brain cell and i want it back
I don't think treating Rod as conftown is any more TMI than I think treating Starling as confscum is
I'm Peter Pettigrew/Wormtail. At night I get to guess who half of you will being voting for at EoD the next Day phase. If I guess right on a player that particular player can't kill me at night.
I have that charmingly ominous less worries comment when it comes to dark mark.
I'm BAD at guessing.
Wait
You have a role that prevents people from killing you if you correctly predict their votes...
...and get a BPV if you're given a dark mark?
That seems incredibly redundant and idk I buy osie actually makes that tbh
this is assuming dark Mark is the same for all. I haven’t been given any so I don’t know it would be bpv.
My guessing games been subpar to say the least though. It’s what I meant by whining about the irony a few phases ago when someone was on my case about voting konan when I had zds at bottom of my scum list. I’d pretty much guessed everyone would be voting zds the next day since I was sure they were scum and when day started they had been vigged and flipped town.
I'm Peter Pettigrew/Wormtail. At night I get to guess who half of you will being voting for at EoD the next Day phase. If I guess right on a player that particular player can't kill me at night.
I have that charmingly ominous less worries comment when it comes to dark mark.
I'm BAD at guessing.
Wait
You have a role that prevents people from killing you if you correctly predict their votes...
...and get a BPV if you're given a dark mark?
That seems incredibly redundant and idk I buy osie actually makes that tbh
well i was waiting to say that...
That would be a lot of protection this game even for ~multiball
Terry. Why is Rhand a bad shot besides giving a green check to 3 widely townread slots?
That's the main reason, killing Rhand instead of a Mason nets basically 4 confirmed town (LW & Rod & Amy & Tom). If Rhand was still alive I wouldn't be half as confident that that triangle is town. That triangle was far more likely to be a coordinated claim than the Amy/Tom claim. This why I'm circling back to why the heck Rod blocked Amy. Going into the night, personally I was much more comfortable with the idea that Tom/Amy have to be telling the truth. I couldn't say that for the LW/Rhand/Rod triangle. In my opinion, a shot into the Masons would only have netted 1 confirmed town, which is why I posted that thing about the double kills on the masons (two kills, one scum kill and one SK kill on the same mason target). I was trying WIFOM the killers into NOT targeting a mason and it worked. I'll say it again. You're welcome (if you are town).
That being said, I saw the call for claims and am willing to claim partially. I'm Travers (I have no idea who the character is) and I do not have a targeting role and it's harmless, but unless there's a big need for me to be more detailed, I'd prefer to holster the rest.
if its harmless, then why not full claim?
you are in the PoE... why should u be holstering
@Orange
I am having Vietnam flashbacks at this point, don't mind me
Because, despite personally being in the POE, I think there are other people that should be lynched before me and think the upside outweighs the inconvenience of a tiny bit of missing info.
The Worst Banana
Banana's Warning
The Banana
At Flourish and Banana
The Whomping Banana
Gilderoy Bananahart
Bananabloods and Murmurs
The Bananaday Party
The Banana on the Wall
The Rogue Banana
The Banana Club
The Banana Potion
The Very Secret Banana
Bananius Fudge
Ananab
The Chamber of Bananas
The Banana of Slytherin
Banana's Reward
==mech clear==
tom
wisp
==basically clear==
rodemy
==comfortable v==
orange
==lean v==
lagoon
terraine
==lean not v==
triss
joe
==kill this==
star
given that he knows her better, that may be worth paying more attention to
but meh.
which maybe only makes sense if the carrow is someone deeper like lagoon?
idk though
From the SK's point of view
The absolute best case scenario is to kill a scum without putting themselves at risk of being lynched
Unless the SK is exactly me and I'm afraid of being, like, spk'd or fear-killed over some of the vague statements I've made regarding my role, the SK knows the Mafia are never going to attack them at night over the mechconfirmed town
So why would they ever kill Starling and risk the town snaps onto them next? Even goo, who I think is safest amongst the non-clears, has no reason to do that when they could shoot literally anywhere else in the PoE and still see a scum lynch tomorrow with no risk to themselves should somebody re-evaluate
Or they could just go for the people essentially giving out BPVs
Both kills last night are way better for literally any possible SK to make than a Starling kill would have been
Even lagoon has no reason to do so when it always saves them a day from the lynch and they have no reason to fear the nightkill
why have a standard text if it's non-standard results
why not just give everyone unique flavor
did deadbananas flavor-claim before Starling hammered
Sad
Would have been a really funny claim to "protect his family" immediately after hammering a claimed Malfoy
oh well
vote: Terry
1. What leads you to spend a decent chunk of time focusing on a Mafia Role Cop in particular? Considering none of the kills except for Sloth have been on unclaimed Town PRs, it does seem weird to jump there so readily.
2. That's cool and all, but I'm specifically seeking your insight on which kill each night you think is scum, and which you think is Carrow - unless you believe there's unclaimed town KP as well, but at this point I'm personally not feeling that one to be likely. As such, I'd appreciate if you would look over Jackrito/Sloth and Rhand/WMU and put forward which faction you think would have been most likely to carry out each kill, as well as your reasons for believing so. This isn't some sort of "gotcha" where I have something to pull on you - I'm just trying to get into your headspace, and this feels like the best middle ground to meet you on. Sound good to you?
goo is definitely less townie on the whole
@triss how many FM games have you been scum in
I...can feel Sloth probably shaking in rage about youths over this in spec. Steve Buscemi. How do you not know who Steve Buscemi is?
I'm not sure I agree. Looking at Terry's ISO now with toDay's flips the whole push since mason claims felt off.
that's dumb
A: scum claiming Masons here is liable to net a SK kill, outing them both
B: why would it be Amy over tom? Both are essentially equally likely, so you're already giving yourself a coin toss here even if we ignore A
C: The mason claims are effectively self-resolving, as scum can't possibly afford to let both live to LyLo, so even if you really thought they were scum why bother trying to shoot there anyways tbh
But at least I can remember things he's done, and a lot of his stuff early in the game was pretty easy to see his progression on
I'm kinda treating him in the "off the rails" category with Rodemy - I still have a hard time calling him scum rn
they are
You have a role that prevents people from killing you if you correctly predict their votes...
...and get a BPV if you're given a dark mark?
That seems incredibly redundant and idk I buy osie actually makes that tbh
What's the holdup
I get it in general but I personally believe that people always and without fail show their true colors when their death is certain, and in Starling's case, he clammed up until called out on it then tried to save face
That's just not how town acts
I'll let other people push on Joe, barring a really convincing case they're NK I'm really not feeling it tbh
I'ma get some sleep now
My guessing games been subpar to say the least though. It’s what I meant by whining about the irony a few phases ago when someone was on my case about voting konan when I had zds at bottom of my scum list. I’d pretty much guessed everyone would be voting zds the next day since I was sure they were scum and when day started they had been vigged and flipped town.
That would be a lot of protection this game even for ~multiball
And none of it protects from fontis poison?
That being said, I saw the call for claims and am willing to claim partially. I'm Travers (I have no idea who the character is) and I do not have a targeting role and it's harmless, but unless there's a big need for me to be more detailed, I'd prefer to holster the rest.
you are in the PoE... why should u be holstering
@Orange
I am having Vietnam flashbacks at this point, don't mind me
its 2 am, im going to sleep
gn
yeah uh
my one caveat is that it's definitely on flavor for pettigrew to be fully selfprotective
Can no one prove they havent been riddled?
Starling (3) - TerRaine, Ampharos, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
gooLagoon (2) - Rodemy, Lastwhisper
Not Voting: gooLagoon, orangeandblack5, Starling, tomsloger, Trisscar
Rodemy - Trisscar > Starling > gooLagoon
Ampharos - Starling
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry - Starling
Lastwhisper - gooLagoon > TheRealStinkyJoeTerry > gooLagoon
Day 4 Elimination deadline will be 10:30 AM MST on Tuesday, July 28th. With 10 players, it takes 6 to eliminate.
But doing so today would be asinine