Still think Z's likely scum, though this is not as sure as yesterDay (the reason is nothing complicated, just the benefit of time and the way things unfolded EoD1 making worry I have confBias.)
Given that I'm re-evaluating, I'm not on him, and trying to focus on finding other scum (which I could then maybe connect to him?)
(Flarg just ******* shoot him if you're town, damnit.)
He has done nothing today, as he has been v/la, so the only think I can assume changed this is you are reading someone else stronger. Per your vote, I assume that person is tom.
The only reason I don't now is because unless they're 100% conf!scum, I refuse to vote replacements when they replace lateish in the Day
That's actually terrible, and why I hate replacements. If these day phases were 36 hours, no one would give a *****. Him replacing shouldn't change that 100% if you think you have her dead to right. Also, who is dork?
Your analysis of why Rhand/KCC can't be w/w is merely because you say KCC has been sheeping him?......really?
I also don't really know where your read on tom gets in, so.....eh?
I'm not much of a caser, and prefer to folow my heart until we get a red flip.
Pick someone you think is scum and explain why we should think the same. This is what a case is at its core (minus all the extra length taken by quotes and such) and this is all I'm asking for now.
Since you should have some scum reads by now, and not just POE reads, it should be easy to that by "following your heart".
@ZDS: Give up FLarg if you are still there. If we lynch correctly today, and basically force Flarg to follow shots, wolves will have to deal with him or risk losing too much ground. Even if he hits our choice and our townies, he should be making kills that help PoE.
As my previous post implies, I have more or less acknowledged he wasn't getting lynched toDay.
@YWF Where does Flarg-as-SK fit in #1816?
Regarding Zionite, he has become a lot more controversial now than he was Day 1, with more people willing to defend him now, so he would by no means be an "easy lynch".
Regarding Flarg's potential push on Zionite toDay, he was already backtracking on his Zion read yesterDay, so no pushing him wasn't really an option.
@Sloth Let's agree to disagree on the going-back-and-changing-the-post thing. Besides, it really doesn't change much, all it does IIRC is make the distancing with Vaimes I thought I saw a moot point.
Why would the SK not hit Grape? I don't know what makes you (implicitely) think Grape is such a bad SK target (he certainly wasn't a great vig target), and since we are talking about Flarg here and not some platonic ideal of the SK there's the fact his Night chat with his cell gives him an alibi. Who do you think should have been the target of SK-Flarg? (Spoiler alert: if you say "someone townie" or "someone scumreading him", I will answer "it would be a terrible idea to do that and try to sell a vig claim afterwards".)
FYI, from our own Night chat, KCC definitely did not look like she was going to come "into toDay knowing she was probably doomed". She made zero mention of being in danger, instead focusing entirely on stating/arguing her reads (Flarg town, Grape scum, Zion scum).
@YWF Where does Flarg-as-SK fit in #1816?
Regarding Zionite, he has become a lot more controversial now than he was Day 1, with more people willing to defend him now, so he would by no means be an "easy lynch".
Regarding Flarg's potential push on Zionite toDay, he was already backtracking on his Zion read yesterDay, so no pushing him wasn't really an option.
[/font]
Agreed he's currently controversial but as of end of D1/n2 this hadn't been established so in the context of that mindset wouldn't come into play.
Honestly....Flarg as SK is kinda pinging me as unlikely cause it seems a bit of a bastard set up...which in my experience is something players are warned about. I don't think I've ever played in a game that had a SK that didn'y come with an outright warning there was one or at least a label that there'd be bastard elements present.
Generally accepted <optimal use> of a vig shot would be zion the counterwagon.
Like, it gives so much clarity to d1 wagons that if i were vig i probably would have shot him while thinking he would flip town. Easiest decision of my life if i thought he was a wolf.
still not seeing how answering this question is anything but "continuing to play mafia" my dude. So im gonna keep... yknow, answering.
Ok. This is probably going to get us nowhere so I'm not going to get stuck on it.
Then another question: What's your read on Last now? On a town!KJ world, you listed him as scummy, but don't appear to be following that thread. What changed?
Yes. Factually, an extra kill can be town. SK, or scum. Approximately that order of likelihood.
Would say that order holds for mtgs or MU, DLP probably scumvig more likely than SK but its marginal.
Are these things really surprising to you?
I mean. Yes?
I'm used to games where you know if there's more than two factions, and I don't think I've ever played a game with a scumVig.
nothing changed? General opinion on last is i can see him being a wolf wrt kj wagon but seems ~fine otherwise.
Squarely in my poe.
I think what youre looking for is some sudden shift immediately following his flip, but im never gonna work that way. I thought about both worlds day 1. And overnight. And most of today with fairly transparent posting about it.
Idk i think you want a straight line with an angle when im mostly shades of gray and squiggles.
But i guess we'll see when you post your case thats almost certainly too late in the day to accomplish anything but you should probably get out anyway...
~~~~~
Neutrals/SKs DO NOT count as multiball/another faction, but its still less common than a town vig and frankly you handle it the same scum have to deal with him if hes got a bunch of shots so whatever.
Ive played multiple games with scum vig, both here and your homesite, in the last year.
Prison block 1 had a scum vig of sorts.
So yeah.
But i wouldnt lynch him today. Townvig is ~most likely and i think the case on him is largely playstyle based so
He has done nothing today, as he has been v/la, so the only think I can assume changed this is you are reading someone else stronger. Per your vote, I assume that person is tom.
...Literally just said "not as sure" and "worry about conf!bias" in plain English, in the very post you're quoting, so. Um. What?
That's actually terrible, and why I hate replacements. If these day phases were 36 hours, no one would give a *****. Him replacing shouldn't change that 100% if you think you have her dead to right.
It hasn't changed at all.
I'm aware it's terrible, and it's also why I would have definitely hammered the sloth instead of having a replacement. I'm making it very clear: I don't give a ***** if it's not in line with the catching scum, I won't vote a fresh replacement. It is a dick move, and I hate it when it happens to me or to anyone in any game I've been to.
Your analysis of why Rhand/KCC can't be w/w is merely because you say KCC has been sheeping him?......really?
I also don't really know where your read on tom gets in, so.....eh?
Dork's ZeDorkSlipeur. Other players are calling him Ze, but I'm getting confused between him and Z (Zion), so I call him Dork.
That's oversimplifying it, but yes, that's the jist. Neither of those two are terrible players, and the moves look to me as pretty deliberate in making sure we connect them in our minds. Ignoring completely the possibility that that's what KCC is doing, do you agree that they're definitely appearing to be together? Trace that back yourself on your posts and see how it happened.
I'll post it tonight...after I write it lol. In the meantime, question for you: Why is Tom town. Answer with as much detail as possible.
@Sloth Let's agree to disagree on the going-back-and-changing-the-post thing. Besides, it really doesn't change much, all it does IIRC is make the distancing with Vaimes I thought I saw a moot point.
Why would the SK not hit Grape? I don't know what makes you (implicitely) think Grape is such a bad SK target (he certainly wasn't a great vig target), and since we are talking about Flarg here and not some platonic ideal of the SK there's the fact his Night chat with his cell gives him an alibi. Who do you think should have been the target of SK-Flarg? (Spoiler alert: if you say "someone townie" or "someone scumreading him", I will answer "it would be a terrible idea to do that and try to sell a vig claim afterwards".)
FYI, from our own Night chat, KCC definitely did not look like she was going to come "into toDay knowing she was probably doomed". She made zero mention of being in danger, instead focusing entirely on stating/arguing her reads (Flarg town, Grape scum, Zion scum).
Fair enough, agree to disagree; this seems more of a NAI playstyle issue rather than anytihng else.
Re: SK target. I mean, this one's easy, why are you asking?
Obviously a strong player, likely to catch him. Perhaps a widely townread one even. (i.e. Tom, Rhand(?), maybe you, me.)
I'm seriously curious, solely because you thought to ask this: Who would you have targetted as SK?
You're also proposing two fallacies here:
-the idea of his cell chat as alibi: Why would he even try to use them for this? He could have just shot whoever without claiming or bringing it up. The idea here that he actually seems to have worked with others to decide on a target, when he had no reason to as SK.
-"try to sell the vig claim afterwards": So you're assuming he was always going to claim toDay? Or at all? Based on what? He had no idea your push was coming, so no probable expectations to claim.
Re: KCC knowing she was doomed. Fallacy #03: As scum, why in the hell would she mention to either of her cellmates that she think she was in danger/likely to go? Rather than just set things up for her lynch?
And regardless of that, it doesn't take a genius to read EoD1 and know that at the very least a push was coming. And lo and behold, what was the leading wagon until the replacement?
This was not a good post from you. It actually makes me feel better about my theory. Yay.
@sloth
Yeah i pretty strongly disagree with the premise of scumkcc coming into today thinking she was doomed, and we seem to have pretty opposite teambuilding around her slot.
(Rhand as most likely partner, zds way down there)
..Literally just said "not as sure" and "worry about conf!bias" in plain English, in the very post you're quoting, so. Um. What?
Yes, and in plain English, when people change their mind on a wolf, its either because they are doing townier things, or they found someone they think is more likely a wolf.
I don't get why you asked for analysis when you say your tom case gets later. Unless you wanted me to specifically to look at the KCC/Rhand aren't w/w part of it. That is the only part that intrigues me, and I don't necessarily agree with it because it isn't impossible for wolves to buddy up.
Is your town read of Rhand only contingent on KCC? Like if Rod flips town, how does that affect your read then?
I'll post it tonight...after I write it lol. In the meantime, question for you: Why is Tom town. Answer with as much detail as possible.
tom feels solvey this game. His constant butting into me as a wolf read constantly comes on to me as more townie, where he as a wolf is usually a lot more hedgey on me. While he is somewhere on the middle of me now, it felt like a natural shift versus a forced to look evolving.
On top of that, his KJ shove makes no sense from a wolf perspective, unless his goal was just to barrel into a townie player as a flex. I don't these as something tom does as a wolf, except in rare circumstance when ZIonite is a wolf. Even if Zio is a wolf, that doesn't necessairly mean tom is a wolf. I really didn't see a good push for Zionite day 1 other than refusal to really play in the uber early part of the game, and said something along the lines of "waiting for the game to get exciting."
Like, he isn't my strongest of strong town reads. But I feel pretty good about him being town this game. GEtting glared at by boss, so later gators.
I don’t buy the vig. Why shoot grape? He was t even voting at the end of the day why not shoot Zion?
More people on his wagon and would have been better for Poe
what would a scum!flarg gain by claiming vig who shot town? If he's not a vig then who killed grape considering one of the most certain town people of the game Sloth was also allegedly shot at? If anything this only would make sense if Flarg had used the D1 momentum started pushing for Zio again instead of reversing his read D2.
Neither faction has ANYTHING to gain by killing zio N1 if I'm being honest. A town player thinking he's scum is wasting a shot against an easy lynch given he was the second strongest wagon D1....a scum member is wasting an easy mislynch. No one would have ANYTHING to gain from wasting a shot on Zio.
you literally said it here. Nothing would be gained
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thank you for choosing
Rodemy Pizza
It’s not the best choice, but it’s a choice nonetheless
Grape by reputation is a better townplayer than me, probably than rhand too. I disagree with the latter but i think i have a higher opinion of rhand (as either alignment) than just about anyone.
So hed be a pretty good SK target.
But that not necessarily relevant since, yknow, no idea what flargs opinion on this is. Of grape as a player or of how to choose shots/if he planned to claim it/etc
Ftr, if i was SK id have shot last because he scumreads me no matter what and just... generally frustrates me lol
~~~~~
Kcc became a wagon because of terrs case. She wouldnt have seen that coming any more than flarg would have seen zds'
If she was scum she certainly spent time trying to look good in light of kj townflip.
I also just... would be incredibly disappointed in her if her peacing out was strategic in some way and wont really consider those worlds
Anyway i think zds' thoughts on this are better than sloths by a pretty significant margin, but about equally towny
Honestly KCC’s play seems sketchy as hell on a reread. She does…very little unless someone comes for her. This post right here sums it all up kinda perfectly.
I'm not exactly scumreading kj, I haven't seen enough to make a confident read one way or the other. But if we absolutely need a counter wagon, that's one of the places I'd like seeing pressure
I"m seeing things that could be from being scum, but nothing yet I couldn"t see reasonable town explanations for
This is pretty obviously where I am if you"re reading my posts. Maybe closer to: KJ might be a wolf, but I could still see him as town, and am far more confident on Zion
I"m waiting until I see something that gives me a stronger read one way or the other, I"m still going over his read list atm
Same place I was 2 days ago. Also not thrilled that he"s disappeared while KJ has gained attention
I mean she says it herself Zion is MIA with the KJ wagon…she’s at best mildly suspicious and hedging her bets with KJ but is doing nothing beyond voting him. Everything is I have no REAL feeling on KJ! I’m good on lynching him though.
Oh, is that the point of the game? Thank you so much, I"ve been wondering that for years.
Here, I"ll make this simpler: I think there"s more reasonable town explanations for kjs play than for zions so far. Hence my vote being where it is
I don"t need to actively solve kj, he"ll solve himself for me. And yes, I"m very happy with where the gamestate is, do I look like I"m trying to change it?
This wait and see act only works if she every comes up with a reason and she never really does. The only thing that happens is his role claim which she says IS NOT a reason....but she does anyway.
All of this is very scummy. It screams I want credit for hunting and a flip without saying anything incriminating or doing the work.
Yup.
Vote: KCC
Doesn’t want to scum hunt. Just seems to observe. Wants the credit for scum flips and to “own” a mislynch yet everyone’s that pushed her about a bad lynch is getting “Well no it wasn’t bad…it just was a mislynch!” and hyper defensiveness over it. It’s all very Anti town.
Her current “pressure” is to vote ZDS because of things she read in the cell chat we can’t see and can’t build any understanding off of….she has yet to read the in game wall. In fact she seems to be just ricocheting of Rhand and is waiting for his “mind meld” to tell her what to think about it
i dig this
I think my main thought on kcc yesterday was the way she interacted with the kj wagon made sense as a buddy because its that powerishwolf play so many people do where they dont bus but sort of let town lynch their buddies anyway because they cant commit...
But uh
Its just a crappy stance regardless.
Think im gonna roll with this case + my impression of her positioning within her cellblock
I don’t buy the vig. Why shoot grape? He was t even voting at the end of the day why not shoot Zion?
More people on his wagon and would have been better for Poe
what would a scum!flarg gain by claiming vig who shot town? If he's not a vig then who killed grape considering one of the most certain town people of the game Sloth was also allegedly shot at? If anything this only would make sense if Flarg had used the D1 momentum started pushing for Zio again instead of reversing his read D2.
Neither faction has ANYTHING to gain by killing zio N1 if I'm being honest. A town player thinking he's scum is wasting a shot against an easy lynch given he was the second strongest wagon D1....a scum member is wasting an easy mislynch. No one would have ANYTHING to gain from wasting a shot on Zio.
you literally said it here. Nothing would be gained
You get the same thing from lynching him. Hell you get MORE. The concept of wagon analysis doesn’t change if you Shoot him at night it if you lynch him. you said it yourself a 3 person wagon doesn’t give us much to analyze. So go for the lynch and analyze a wagon with more than 3 people at the end of the Day
Terraine is extremely wrong here but its fine shes not the vig/sk
Grape is only a "good" shot if you really think hes scum (town vig) or think you can get away with it (sk/mafia vig that wants to be able to claim it if things go bad)
I thought having all this content to come back to would make reads easier. It has not.
I still feel pretty confident the KCC slot (now Rodemy) is scum. But lynching Rodemy here feels like a dick move. A few of my reads kind of rely on this slot to flip. So leaving it for next Day.
I've been wary of Rhand and his push on GJ cemented that. I think GJ's responses were valid. Definitely down to lynch Rhand. If he comes up town, I'll probably change my mind on GJ.
ZDS' Flarg SK theory - Well to go through this work indicates ZDS is likely town. It used to be a meta evidence thing that if someone is SK hunting, they aren't scum-hunting, so they're probably scum. But he didn't immediately come out as SK hunting, it was just a result of the claim mid-case. I think ZDS' points are still valid, but I'm not totally sold on it. I didn't think his "shoot yourself" strategy was all that bad, because it gives us a deadline to prove himself. But I'd rather him shoot scum (if there's even shots remaining). So yes, he's either the vig or the SK, but his posts lead me more toward vig. We can't rule out he may be SK, even with limited shots.
Jack's play continues to bother me with the non-stop flip-flops. Would still be okay with a lynch here but probably not a lot of support.
I thought having all this content to come back to would make reads easier. It has not.
I still feel pretty confident the KCC slot (now Rodemy) is scum. But lynching Rodemy here feels like a dick move. A few of my reads kind of rely on this slot to flip. So leaving it for next Day.
I've been wary of Rhand and his push on GJ cemented that. I think GJ's responses were valid. Definitely down to lynch Rhand. If he comes up town, I'll probably change my mind on GJ.
ZDS' Flarg SK theory - Well to go through this work indicates ZDS is likely town. It used to be a meta evidence thing that if someone is SK hunting, they aren't scum-hunting, so they're probably scum. But he didn't immediately come out as SK hunting, it was just a result of the claim mid-case. I think ZDS' points are still valid, but I'm not totally sold on it. I didn't think his "shoot yourself" strategy was all that bad, because it gives us a deadline to prove himself. But I'd rather him shoot scum (if there's even shots remaining). So yes, he's either the vig or the SK, but his posts lead me more toward vig. We can't rule out he may be SK, even with limited shots.
Jack's play continues to bother me with the non-stop flip-flops. Would still be okay with a lynch here but probably not a lot of support.
I thought having all this content to come back to would make reads easier. It has not.
I still feel pretty confident the KCC slot (now Rodemy) is scum. But lynching Rodemy here feels like a dick move. A few of my reads kind of rely on this slot to flip. So leaving it for next Day.
I've been wary of Rhand and his push on GJ cemented that. I think GJ's responses were valid. Definitely down to lynch Rhand. If he comes up town, I'll probably change my mind on GJ.
ZDS' Flarg SK theory - Well to go through this work indicates ZDS is likely town. It used to be a meta evidence thing that if someone is SK hunting, they aren't scum-hunting, so they're probably scum. But he didn't immediately come out as SK hunting, it was just a result of the claim mid-case. I think ZDS' points are still valid, but I'm not totally sold on it. I didn't think his "shoot yourself" strategy was all that bad, because it gives us a deadline to prove himself. But I'd rather him shoot scum (if there's even shots remaining). So yes, he's either the vig or the SK, but his posts lead me more toward vig. We can't rule out he may be SK, even with limited shots.
Jack's play continues to bother me with the non-stop flip-flops. Would still be okay with a lynch here but probably not a lot of support.
Sloth is bullet-proof. Nearly confirmed town.
I'm still mad at Tom for taking KJ away from me.
Vote Rhand
Your entire case on your vote is “he voted for this person”?
Also long ass walls to back up a read don’t make people town. Ive seen people write les mis length posts as scum. You spend more time in this post propping up ZDs terrible throw the witch of a cliff idea than you do making a case for your vote. Why?
(Mobile posting so if this is formatted ****y...oh well...)
Man sure would be cool if some kind of town killing role had taken out zion so we didnt have to cover this again and could solve this game based v/v or v/w wagons day 1...
I wanted to see his flip and there was nothing else to do D1
Also, I didn't want someone else to hammer first. If he was scum, I wanted to be able to say I helped lynch him D1. And if town, and he went down because I misread him and didn't defend him, I wanted to own that
Flarg was so pure in our cell chat that I am sure he's town.
I invite everyone to actually click the links in ZDS's case and compare them to what ZDS is saying. There's a lot of exaggerations and smears in there.
ZDS is using busswords like "self-conscious" and "opportunistic" in places where it's totally unwarranted.
I have started on a breakdown of the case, but it's becoming a huge wall and I don't think anyone will read it.
vote ZDS
I haven't read zdss case in thread yet, but the arguments made in our chat were awful. I'm still debating if it's some mix of rusty/overconfident/tunneled or willful ignorance.
Flarg is also one of my strongest townreads after reviewing him last Night
I'd rather lynch Zion, but grape being town moves zds squarely into my lynch pool
@rhand: Can you elaborate at all on Tubba? I don't have a great read on him from the thread
KCC what the hell? Why throw a hammer down early? Especially when we have a questionable lurker finally beginning to at least twitch and at least one player talking about how they want to do an ISO on the two wagons.
What do you consider early? Because I'm strongly against the sites current meta of lynches can only happen within 10 mins of deadline. That time is the maximum, not the minimum length. If someone wanted the lynch to wait, they should have said something.
I have started on a breakdown of the case, but it's becoming a huge wall and I don't think anyone will read it.
Do you want to take half, and I'll tackle the other?
Im really not seeing the world where she came in thinking she was doomed.
Shes explaining herself, forcing camraderie. She was gonna live imo
But if she was, i can see the argument that rhand isnt her partner. But that would make zds even less likely a buddy with that hesitation/possible TMI that hes rusty/etc
Looking at this makes me question rhand/kcc a little. I dont agree with the sloth premise but she did look like she wanted to work with rhand/share the blame for zds mislynch...
Anyway im at kccslot and rhand as most likely scum, but <rand together by an amount.
In conjunction with, well, liking rod and not necessarily wanting to kill him immediately...
Wouldnt want people to have to read full sentences to know my reads
actually ive shuffled a bit but this more or less holds. Think that top 6 just holistically feels town and i expect all or most of the scumteam in that bottom 6
Would maybe make a middle section of, like, johnny, flarg, and <the remainder of kcc/rhand if one flips scum>
Sloth was the nightkill probs
Jack and tubba have that doing their own thing/progressiony background thinking
Zds feels like he believes what hes saying and is working through it
Ywf is a solvey and opinionated woman that dont need no buddies
Zion could probably move down to the aforementioned middle section
Ok that would be
Sloth claimed he was notified his BP was used up
Then, later, flarg claimed he shot grape.
Thus, if claims are to be believed, sloth was the mafia nightkill.
Presumably no one wants to talk about worlds where
>sloth/flarg are w/w getting REAL fancy
>nk was stopped some other way and sloth taking advantage very well
I know i dont want to bring that up prolly makes it look like im shading sloth since hes one of 2 people that apparently suspect me and im voting the other...
Talk to me about Tubba. I feel like he hasn't done anything this game at all. Occasional pop ins, but nothing of real value of push. Why is he such a strong town read for you?
Talk to me about Tubba. I feel like he hasn't done anything this game at all. Occasional pop ins, but nothing of real value of push. Why is he such a strong town read for you?
background thinking my man
Most tubba popins i can tell what he was thinking about while he was gone.
Thats tubba style solving
....coupled with this gif why do I have a feeling that the redacted towntell you've brought up is insulting?
Show us some fly photos when you get back.
I'm surprised you don't know what the tell is.
Unless that's what you WANT me to believe and have learned to hide it.
Oh ****.
He has done nothing today, as he has been v/la, so the only think I can assume changed this is you are reading someone else stronger. Per your vote, I assume that person is tom.
That's actually terrible, and why I hate replacements. If these day phases were 36 hours, no one would give a *****. Him replacing shouldn't change that 100% if you think you have her dead to right. Also, who is dork?
Your analysis of why Rhand/KCC can't be w/w is merely because you say KCC has been sheeping him?......really?
I also don't really know where your read on tom gets in, so.....eh?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Pick someone you think is scum and explain why we should think the same. This is what a case is at its core (minus all the extra length taken by quotes and such) and this is all I'm asking for now.
Since you should have some scum reads by now, and not just POE reads, it should be easy to that by "following your heart".
@Jackrito: You too, case someone.
1) Define "distancey" in the context of a kill.
2) FlargBlarg claimed the kill on Grape.
As my previous post implies, I have more or less acknowledged he wasn't getting lynched toDay.
@YWF Where does Flarg-as-SK fit in #1816?
Regarding Zionite, he has become a lot more controversial now than he was Day 1, with more people willing to defend him now, so he would by no means be an "easy lynch".
Regarding Flarg's potential push on Zionite toDay, he was already backtracking on his Zion read yesterDay, so no pushing him wasn't really an option.
@Sloth Let's agree to disagree on the going-back-and-changing-the-post thing. Besides, it really doesn't change much, all it does IIRC is make the distancing with Vaimes I thought I saw a moot point.
Why would the SK not hit Grape? I don't know what makes you (implicitely) think Grape is such a bad SK target (he certainly wasn't a great vig target), and since we are talking about Flarg here and not some platonic ideal of the SK there's the fact his Night chat with his cell gives him an alibi. Who do you think should have been the target of SK-Flarg? (Spoiler alert: if you say "someone townie" or "someone scumreading him", I will answer "it would be a terrible idea to do that and try to sell a vig claim afterwards".)
FYI, from our own Night chat, KCC definitely did not look like she was going to come "into toDay knowing she was probably doomed". She made zero mention of being in danger, instead focusing entirely on stating/arguing her reads (Flarg town, Grape scum, Zion scum).
Agreed he's currently controversial but as of end of D1/n2 this hadn't been established so in the context of that mindset wouldn't come into play.
Honestly....Flarg as SK is kinda pinging me as unlikely cause it seems a bit of a bastard set up...which in my experience is something players are warned about. I don't think I've ever played in a game that had a SK that didn'y come with an outright warning there was one or at least a label that there'd be bastard elements present.
If I don't die, I probably deal with him tomorrow. Win-win
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Like, it gives so much clarity to d1 wagons that if i were vig i probably would have shot him while thinking he would flip town. Easiest decision of my life if i thought he was a wolf.
~~~~~
nothing changed? General opinion on last is i can see him being a wolf wrt kj wagon but seems ~fine otherwise.
Squarely in my poe.
I think what youre looking for is some sudden shift immediately following his flip, but im never gonna work that way. I thought about both worlds day 1. And overnight. And most of today with fairly transparent posting about it.
Idk i think you want a straight line with an angle when im mostly shades of gray and squiggles.
But i guess we'll see when you post your case thats almost certainly too late in the day to accomplish anything but you should probably get out anyway...
~~~~~
Neutrals/SKs DO NOT count as multiball/another faction, but its still less common than a town vig and frankly you handle it the same scum have to deal with him if hes got a bunch of shots so whatever.
Ive played multiple games with scum vig, both here and your homesite, in the last year.
Prison block 1 had a scum vig of sorts.
So yeah.
But i wouldnt lynch him today. Townvig is ~most likely and i think the case on him is largely playstyle based so
It hasn't changed at all.
I'm aware it's terrible, and it's also why I would have definitely hammered the sloth instead of having a replacement. I'm making it very clear: I don't give a ***** if it's not in line with the catching scum, I won't vote a fresh replacement. It is a dick move, and I hate it when it happens to me or to anyone in any game I've been to.
Slot*
Re: SK target. I mean, this one's easy, why are you asking?
Obviously a strong player, likely to catch him. Perhaps a widely townread one even. (i.e. Tom, Rhand(?), maybe you, me.)
I'm seriously curious, solely because you thought to ask this: Who would you have targetted as SK?
You're also proposing two fallacies here:
-the idea of his cell chat as alibi: Why would he even try to use them for this? He could have just shot whoever without claiming or bringing it up. The idea here that he actually seems to have worked with others to decide on a target, when he had no reason to as SK.
-"try to sell the vig claim afterwards": So you're assuming he was always going to claim toDay? Or at all? Based on what? He had no idea your push was coming, so no probable expectations to claim.
Re: KCC knowing she was doomed. Fallacy #03: As scum, why in the hell would she mention to either of her cellmates that she think she was in danger/likely to go? Rather than just set things up for her lynch?
And regardless of that, it doesn't take a genius to read EoD1 and know that at the very least a push was coming. And lo and behold, what was the leading wagon until the replacement?
This was not a good post from you. It actually makes me feel better about my theory. Yay.
Yeah i pretty strongly disagree with the premise of scumkcc coming into today thinking she was doomed, and we seem to have pretty opposite teambuilding around her slot.
(Rhand as most likely partner, zds way down there)
There may be sites/hosts that consider serial killers to be bastard.
It is definitely not this site or this host.
Yes, and in plain English, when people change their mind on a wolf, its either because they are doing townier things, or they found someone they think is more likely a wolf.
I don't get why you asked for analysis when you say your tom case gets later. Unless you wanted me to specifically to look at the KCC/Rhand aren't w/w part of it. That is the only part that intrigues me, and I don't necessarily agree with it because it isn't impossible for wolves to buddy up.
Is your town read of Rhand only contingent on KCC? Like if Rod flips town, how does that affect your read then?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
tom feels solvey this game. His constant butting into me as a wolf read constantly comes on to me as more townie, where he as a wolf is usually a lot more hedgey on me. While he is somewhere on the middle of me now, it felt like a natural shift versus a forced to look evolving.
On top of that, his KJ shove makes no sense from a wolf perspective, unless his goal was just to barrel into a townie player as a flex. I don't these as something tom does as a wolf, except in rare circumstance when ZIonite is a wolf. Even if Zio is a wolf, that doesn't necessairly mean tom is a wolf. I really didn't see a good push for Zionite day 1 other than refusal to really play in the uber early part of the game, and said something along the lines of "waiting for the game to get exciting."
Like, he isn't my strongest of strong town reads. But I feel pretty good about him being town this game. GEtting glared at by boss, so later gators.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
you literally said it here. Nothing would be gained
So hed be a pretty good SK target.
But that not necessarily relevant since, yknow, no idea what flargs opinion on this is. Of grape as a player or of how to choose shots/if he planned to claim it/etc
Ftr, if i was SK id have shot last because he scumreads me no matter what and just... generally frustrates me lol
~~~~~
Kcc became a wagon because of terrs case. She wouldnt have seen that coming any more than flarg would have seen zds'
If she was scum she certainly spent time trying to look good in light of kj townflip.
I also just... would be incredibly disappointed in her if her peacing out was strategic in some way and wont really consider those worlds
Anyway i think zds' thoughts on this are better than sloths by a pretty significant margin, but about equally towny
Agree the world where im scum usually involves at least one of Zion/tubba
Definitely think scumtom would style on townkj like that though
unvote, Vote Tubba
The GJ way path to no lynching:
like, nobody would make it THAT obvious and I think ywfmlf knows that? Idk, one of you two might be scum and I am leaning ywfmlf.
Unvote, vote GJ
You think me or ywf might be scum because your predecessor was too scummy to push?
You get the same thing from lynching him. Hell you get MORE. The concept of wagon analysis doesn’t change if you Shoot him at night it if you lynch him. you said it yourself a 3 person wagon doesn’t give us much to analyze. So go for the lynch and analyze a wagon with more than 3 people at the end of the Day
Grape is only a "good" shot if you really think hes scum (town vig) or think you can get away with it (sk/mafia vig that wants to be able to claim it if things go bad)
remember the part where I said I lived in seattle
it's been... pretty bad around here because of coronavirus stuff
I'm gonna have to reevaluate whether I have the mental bandwidth to play, which will take some time, so sorry. Consider me V/LA for the moment
I still feel pretty confident the KCC slot (now Rodemy) is scum. But lynching Rodemy here feels like a dick move. A few of my reads kind of rely on this slot to flip. So leaving it for next Day.
I've been wary of Rhand and his push on GJ cemented that. I think GJ's responses were valid. Definitely down to lynch Rhand. If he comes up town, I'll probably change my mind on GJ.
ZDS' Flarg SK theory - Well to go through this work indicates ZDS is likely town. It used to be a meta evidence thing that if someone is SK hunting, they aren't scum-hunting, so they're probably scum. But he didn't immediately come out as SK hunting, it was just a result of the claim mid-case. I think ZDS' points are still valid, but I'm not totally sold on it. I didn't think his "shoot yourself" strategy was all that bad, because it gives us a deadline to prove himself. But I'd rather him shoot scum (if there's even shots remaining). So yes, he's either the vig or the SK, but his posts lead me more toward vig. We can't rule out he may be SK, even with limited shots.
Jack's play continues to bother me with the non-stop flip-flops. Would still be okay with a lynch here but probably not a lot of support.
Sloth is bullet-proof. Nearly confirmed town.
I'm still mad at Tom for taking KJ away from me.
Vote Rhand
This is a post alright...
Vote Zion
Count your blessings im not the vig
The GJ way path to no lynching:
for science!
Your entire case on your vote is “he voted for this person”?
Also long ass walls to back up a read don’t make people town. Ive seen people write les mis length posts as scum. You spend more time in this post propping up ZDs
terriblethrow the witch of a cliff idea than you do making a case for your vote. Why?(Mobile posting so if this is formatted ****y...oh well...)
Unvote, Vote Rhand
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Shes explaining herself, forcing camraderie. She was gonna live imo
But if she was, i can see the argument that rhand isnt her partner. But that would make zds even less likely a buddy with that hesitation/possible TMI that hes rusty/etc
Looking at this makes me question rhand/kcc a little. I dont agree with the sloth premise but she did look like she wanted to work with rhand/share the blame for zds mislynch...
Anyway im at kccslot and rhand as most likely scum, but <rand together by an amount.
In conjunction with, well, liking rod and not necessarily wanting to kill him immediately...
Not super sure what i want to do.
Prolly solidify a towncore
Would maybe make a middle section of, like, johnny, flarg, and <the remainder of kcc/rhand if one flips scum>
Sloth was the nightkill probs
Jack and tubba have that doing their own thing/progressiony background thinking
Zds feels like he believes what hes saying and is working through it
Ywf is a solvey and opinionated woman that dont need no buddies
Zion could probably move down to the aforementioned middle section
Ok that would be
tubba/jack/sloth
YWFMLF/zds
zion/flarg/gj
last/vaimes
Kcc>rod/rhand
Sloth claimed he was notified his BP was used up
Then, later, flarg claimed he shot grape.
Thus, if claims are to be believed, sloth was the mafia nightkill.
Presumably no one wants to talk about worlds where
>sloth/flarg are w/w getting REAL fancy
>nk was stopped some other way and sloth taking advantage very well
I know i dont want to bring that up prolly makes it look like im shading sloth since hes one of 2 people that apparently suspect me and im voting the other...
...this is the nicest way of phrasing "bossy ***** who is abrasive" I've ever seen.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
<3
Most tubba popins i can tell what he was thinking about while he was gone.
Thats tubba style solving