I mean to humor the question, the most logical answer was because wolves knew he had a cop check?
if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Fulcrum, uh, using Proph's town case of me to flip into a wolf read of Proph is
Interesting
I guess she thinks we're partners now but if she's a wolf with Killjoy she's spewing Proph clear right now and Proph is the mislunch they need toMorrow?Killjoy's plan is to try to sell Asta on Last/fulcrum being partners??
I mean to humor the question, the most logical answer was because wolves knew he had a cop check?
if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Vaimes wouldn't have wavered.
Do you think town!Proph cuts off half the context of a post when he's doing a deepread like that?
I mean to humor the question, the most logical answer was because wolves knew he had a cop check?
if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Vaimes wouldn't have wavered.
Do you think town!Proph cuts off half the context of a post when he's doing a deepread like that?
idk about that
and idk, can you show me where this is happening? and does the context change the meaning?
I mean to humor the question, the most logical answer was because wolves knew he had a cop check?
if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Vaimes wouldn't have wavered.
Do you think town!Proph cuts off half the context of a post when he's doing a deepread like that?
idk about that
and idk, can you show me where this is happening? and does the context change the meaning?
I mean to humor the question, the most logical answer was because wolves knew he had a cop check?
if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Vaimes wouldn't have wavered.
Do you think town!Proph cuts off half the context of a post when he's doing a deepread like that?
idk about that
and idk, can you show me where this is happening? and does the context change the meaning?
Yes, did you read my post at all?
no I didnt yet, but that will have to wait till I get home if you want a less rushed analysis
Rhand but not for any reason you'd probably find compelling, his posts feel weird and he has a strong town read on me that kind of feels like TMI to me.
Silver continuing to push on Rhand for this reason is again weird if he's scum; feels like they'd both just mutually townread each other or would get into some sort of sparring match/fake fight if they're both mafia together, right?
You cut off half the ******* post to just include the part that looks good for Silver, what the ****.
Rhand but not for any reason you'd probably find compelling, his posts feel weird and he has a strong town read on me that kind of feels like TMI to me.
Vezok has been the designated counter-wagon to the basically identical Axel and dk wagons, I guess, and I've been thinking about switching to Mindreaver but I want to see his catch up first.
Silver was literally setting up the mindreaver push away from Rhand /in this post./ And his whole angle for approaching this is too clear himself. His focus is on himself, saying how Rhand must be tmiing him as town, so that if anyone latches onto the reasoning enough to kill Rhand they'll /have/ conclude Silver is town off of it, because the reasoning is based on Rhand knowing Silver is town. It's something then set up in their chat, to make it looks like Rhnad has a bit of tmi on Silver so they can never be together. And if anyone suspects Silver, they then wouldn't have wanted to go after Rhand, because they made it look like Silver flipping scum clears Rhand. It was all set up to clear one of them when the other flipped, without even making that flip much more likely.
I mean to humor the question, the most logical answer was because wolves knew he had a cop check?
if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Vaimes wouldn't have wavered.
Do you think town!Proph cuts off half the context of a post when he's doing a deepread like that?
idk about that
and idk, can you show me where this is happening? and does the context change the meaning?
Yes, did you read my post at all?
no I didnt yet, but that will have to wait till I get home if you want a less rushed analysis
Ok so Proph answering my question to Last unprompted mildly annoys me.
Last: I still want you to look at the ISO so I can get your opinion on it.
Also, look at fulcrum's post, and tell me how relevant the context additions she made are to you? Is she being fair?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Like, when I looked at Silver->Rhand, I'm seeing a lot of lip service, not a lot of actual pushing. Like, I'm seeing him CALLING Rhand scum for some time, but I didn't notice a lot of exploring other's reads of Rhand to look for scum buddies, etc.
Could Proph/Silver be a thing? Maybe Proph's tunnel of fulcrum/me is a tactic instead of just being wrong?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
When I get home
@killjoy
What about you and fulcrum? Do you think your pushes on Rhand are not lip service? Even though they also dissolved into nothing?
Why does it make sense to you that I would just drop scumreading my buddy as a tactic? Woudln't appearing consistant be somewhere in my mind if he was my buddy?
Also, like... I know I'm biased but my progression on Rhand is right there in my ISO if you want to read it.
Also also I also said why I stopped focusing on Rhand. It's in 1277. But at the same time I see what you're saying from your perspective.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Also while looking through my ISO to talk to Last I noticed a post I quoted where Silver suggested a last minute CFD to DK.
Does scum silver do that?
Am I wrong on Silver too?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I think this gets into why dkings shot Gemma right away. He must have been worried about dying, so why would scum!Silver add on to that? Or did he shoot precisely because he was ok with dying and wanted Silver to get bussing cred? I don't have any good answers, the dk push is a good argument for Silver being town.
Fulcrum, I'll get into your points later tonight, but I didn't link Silver's actual posts when I was quoting them because I think this site's quote/multiquote functions are awful. It's much easier for me to manually put quote tags and c+p the post rather than mess around with multiquoting.
Hanlon's razor - don't assume a malicious intent when a simpler explanation exists.
Fulcrum, I'll get into your points later tonight, but I didn't link Silver's actual posts when I was quoting them because I think this site's quote/multiquote functions are awful. It's much easier for me to manually put quote tags and c+p the post rather than mess around with multiquoting.
Hanlon's razor - don't assume a malicious intent when a simpler explanation exists.
Alright. In future, can you note the post number when you're quoting?
So, Voxx, in his mentor thread with Proph, says that if there’s 5 people in a row on a wagon (especially a town wagon) it’s very likely that in a cluster of 5 with 4 town, the fifth is scum. That is kinda what I’m using to look at wagons in general. Now that we have a lot of flips. I can see that there’s a group of 5 on this wagon with 4 town and an unknown, which makes me think Last is scum. Especially since it keeps happening with Last in the middle of a block of town
1.07
Keldeo(6) - Vezok, Tom, Lastwhisper, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, Silvercrys
So this post was the height of the Mindreaver wagon, and the only two unknowns on that wagon are Silver and Last. Last's vote on that wagon was just 'yeet', following tom's vote. He justifies it later in 609, 610 as not believing that Mind believes this game shows Last at his towniest. It's also noteable that last is kinda buddying tom here, and later where tom thinks vezok is scum. And his T/S list later feels kinda like... he's placing people where he thinks he should as opposed to in response to actual reads.
This is around the time Axel/fulcrum/dk all claimed.It should also be that votecount I quoted that Silver made. I colored it myself. Last jumps off shortly after this, I think. In a scum!Last world, I suppose he jumped off because Rhand was there. He would later decide No Lynch is a better choice than dk for the final lynch of D1.
DK notably has Silver/Asta as unknowns in that little block as well. I'm less sure since that's a scum wagon though.
1.14
KittyCupCake(7) -DK, Gemma, Nacho, Tom, Lastwhisper, Vezok, Axelrod
This shortly follows. This time it’s Silver and Last on the No Lynch wagon in the block of town. IDK if “No LYnch” applies to Voxx’s theory, but I have a gut feeling that there’s scum here.
Here we can see Last and Asta being the only unknowns on the KCC wagon.
The whole of these last few votecounts happened in less than 24 hours time, and I feel like the presence of three seperate votecounts that illustrate my point in such a short stretch of time is relevant.
Here’s the final one. Last spent most of the Day voting Proph, then jumped in to help kill Rhand near the end. This final wagon has literally all the unknowns that aren’t fulcrum, and fulcrum is on a wagon with the two known scum. So this one is just… I really don’t know how to individually read anyone from this.
In this one, last comes back to hammer Keldeo. This grouping includes last and fulcrum.
Day 5 and 6 just kinda has too many unknowns for me to really make sense of as well.
So here’s what I’m thinking here with regards to this: Silver/Last appear enough here that I don’t think they’re both scum together. With Silver also jumping in to cfd DK at the end of day 1, It's probably not Silver.
It might not be Asta with Last, but for that and Silver to be town together the DK wagon in the Gemma VC would have to be all town. It's possible, but I'm not sure sure about it.
IDK who of Proph/fulcrum/Asta his partner would be. I think I've elinimated both of them as scum for some reason prior to this. At least one of those would be wrong in that world.
I'm not super confident in most aspects of Mafia. This, specifically VCA, is something I feel like is something in my wheelhouse to do and analyze, and is something others I respect as analysts do. I know it shouldn't be the only tool in a person's arsenal (It's not the only thing I do either) but it's one of the things I can grasp and feel good about.
Like, scum PROBABLY don't all cluster up. It's not a thing that usually happens. This case is predicated on that.I hope that's not wrong this game.
Hey, I finally found time to make this case.
To reiterate, Last keeps showing up in these clusters. That's not generally normal for Town to do. That's my point.
Also here's all the votecounts through D5 so you guys can see just everything together so you can see if I'm being fair about this.
1.00
Lastwhisper(2) - Gemma, Nacho
Keldeo(2) - Vezok, Tom
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
you arguements are fair
but they are really just, "doesnt happen a lot, but it could be happening here"
"math says one of a group of 5 is probably a wolf"
except that grouping holds, you and silver, and even then you are arguing this on a wagon a 1/4 of the way through the day, which means less then if it was near the end. Nothing says a wolf has to be on that wagon, its flawed logic that can be correct, but its inherently worse to read off in many situations when there are better things to look at
Ill get to everything later today since its my day off, and the final real day for me to get my thoughts in before day end, in which I will be stuck at work
and for one, we did see a cluster of wolves before, and that was in modern mafia, where me/tom/vezok, all were on the counter wagon to wolf Azreal
its just logic you either just to believe, or choose not to, and in reality holds no definite correct answer, which makes it nothing you should fully embrace
you arguements are fair
but they are really just, "doesnt happen a lot, but it could be happening here"
"math says one of a group of 5 is probably a wolf"
except that grouping holds, you and silver, and even then you are arguing this on a wagon a 1/4 of the way through the day, which means less then if it was near the end. Nothing says a wolf has to be on that wagon, its flawed logic that can be correct, but its inherently worse to read off in many situations when there are better things to look at
Ill get to everything later today since its my day off, and the final real day for me to get my thoughts in before day end, in which I will be stuck at work
I mean obviously it's not 100%. But I feel like the frequency of you appearing in such groupings is unusual for town. There's some evidence of intent there.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
and for one, we did see a cluster of wolves before, and that was in modern mafia, where me/tom/vezok, all were on the counter wagon to wolf Azreal
its just logic you either just to believe, or choose not to, and in reality holds no definite correct answer, which makes it nothing you should fully embrace
Perhaps the argument should change to "sane scum don't usually cluster". Tom and vezok would absolutely do that ***** as scum.
Asta I don't know well, but fulcrum, Proph, and Silver are very distinctly not Tom and vezok.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Ya and go through all my games, and find out the ratio between me being in the top wagon and not being in the too wagon, I'll say the first is probably significantly higher
Yeah think it's just fulcrum/Killjoy but down to lunch fulcrum and argue about it toMorrow
You know what explains night actions?
Last having a full suite of abilities on top of his role claim.
If it's not just my theory, then maybe that role is just like a small part of his role. None of the effects of his role seen to be targeted, or require any real strategy on his part.
Maybe it's just:
Passive ability Dream: During pregame and each night, choose one of these words. The thread title will reflect this choice, and an unknown effect will be in effect that Day.
One shot ability: Message
One shot ability: bus drive (or deflect?)
His claimed role doesn't need to be all he has. I've been saying how uninteractive his role is. As such it might not be his entire role.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Small part lol...
Why are we going to assume I am able to do more than one thing each night, on top of my dreaming god, which literally affects the game state
Small part lol...
Why are we going to assume I am able to do more than one thing each night, on top of my dreaming god, which literally affects the game state
You don't actually have to think about anything to use that role. You choose a word and let it go. You don't personally do anything in that I don't think any type of investigative can catch you doing it. You don't choose targets.
That point, btw is why I theorized about your role being factional. Because then it's not you but your team choosing. But that's not necessary for you to have other abilities.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
of course I need to think
the names of the dreams are hints
and I didn't even want to originally use Revenge after a mafia death because I was afraid of the consequences...
of course, I don't choose targets, again, dreaming gods affect the game state or people at random...
@Fulcrum
ok so I read your response to Proph, and I actually really like it
I am willing to agree, that Silver definitely wasnt as gun blazing for Rhand's head as Proph seems to believe
if anything you and Killjoy were on Rhand's ass, and you both gave better reasonings from what I remember, while Silver is just like, "he is weird"
also the whole placing Mindreaver as a wolf because he liked Rhand? just comes off as a chainsaw, in the off chance Rhand does get lynched
and I also read both, "Unreliable Cops", and "GhostBusters"
and I will say that Silver is still really good with wordplay, as well as pushing what he wants
the only thing those games lack is volume
Last, do you think that after pressuring Rhand all day, scum Silver just goes "yeah let's CFD dkings over KCC" at the tail end of Day 1?
And that's my point. I feel like if Silver and Rhand were buddies, they would spend more effort into making their distancing seem more like distancing. The fact that Silver was scumreading Rhand because Rhand was townreading him is a /really/ strange angle to take if they're scum together.
Also was busier than expected yesterday, should be able to sink some time into this game this evening
@Gemma re: Killjoy I don't really have much to add to my earlier meta post. There's a bunch of stuff I don't think he does as a wolf, like bulldogging you over not explaining your Nacho read early, the Mindreaver wagon analysis I mentioned before, this post:
Also: I'm pretty sure the scum aren't entirely in [Gemma, Nacho, Asta, Slothful, fulcrum, Axel(?), dkings(?), Mind(?)] due to the fact that I haven't really been scumread yet. If the entirety of the scumteam was in there, they would either A)not know my playstyle or B) think I was still was easy mislynch and would probably at least have tried at some point before now.
This won't matter unless three of them flip scum, but it's still probably true.
He's just casting a very wide net and producing thoughts I don't think really occur to him as a wolf.
-------------
I want a counterwagon to KCC that isn't Vaimes or Grape
Vote: dkingsland967
I'm... persuadable to lunching tom, it's not a slam dunk but he has a lot of wolf equity
would lunch jackrito on policy but not feel great about it
Day One ends on December 7th at 4PM PST
With 17 Alive it takes 9 to Lynch
Jackrito has requested replacement.
I just don't see why this particular vote count means anything? like especially when its just tied wagons? 4 days before EoD? a lot can easily happen in that time, as nobody is going to get lynched early on day 1
Day One ends on December 7th at 4:15 PM PST
With 16 Alive it takes 9 to Lynch
The Current Season is Summer
#2123? we are now at tied wagons between a town and a wolf, with wolf!Silver's vote making his possible partner tied with kcc
and at this point both scum worlds of wolf!fulcrum and wolf!Silver, are voting their hypothetical partner
both votes mean nothing since KCC is at 8 and DK is at 4, so easy distancing
at this point, both fulcrum and Silver
have their possible partner tied against at own
this is the same day as EoD, so like one of them is bussing here
so like in the end, I don't really believe that fulcrum/Silver, ended on good votes
given that this is the end vote
#2123? we are now at tied wagons between a town and a wolf, with wolf!Silver's vote making his possible partner tied with kcc
and at this point both scum worlds of wolf!fulcrum and wolf!Silver, are voting their hypothetical partner
both votes mean nothing since KCC is at 8 and DK is at 4, so easy distancing
this was a mistake, the wagons are still tied, idk what happened here
sigh i am still tired
"Dont think either silver/fulcrum ended on good votes"
in regards to one or the others' vote being better then the other, since one of them has to be the wolf here, which means one of them is bussing
of course I need to think
the names of the dreams are hints
and I didn't even want to originally use Revenge after a mafia death because I was afraid of the consequences...
of course, I don't choose targets, again, dreaming gods affect the game state or people at random...
Why did you use Revenge after a Mafia death anyway? I don't think you've been asked to justify your actions yet.
My point is that nothing about your role is connected to you. There's no... accountability. There's no commitment.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I think Vaimes' usage and attitude around his role are town, done looking there. Tom's clearly trying to solve, Nacho as well. Asta's newbtown. Vezok is a mason.
Silver, Lastwhisper and Killjoy are all pushing against the grain, probably town.
Game feels p easy. Kill Rhand and Keldeo, probably hit scum, go from there.[/quote]
I dont get how you go from this, to voting Proph 3 pages later in your iso
I think Vaimes' usage and attitude around his role are town, done looking there. Tom's clearly trying to solve, Nacho as well. Asta's newbtown. Vezok is a mason.
Silver, Lastwhisper and Killjoy are all pushing against the grain, probably town.
Game feels p easy. Kill Rhand and Keldeo, probably hit scum, go from there.
I dont get how you go from this, to voting Proph 3 pages later in your iso
@Proph should be our default lynch. His catchup took forever, his responses afterwards were stale, tom had him as a main suspect and died, and he still hasn't ******* talked about me/Vaimes (which should be a super easy thing for him to jot down, unless he's overthinking it as scum). Be town Proph, or bus if you're scum, please.
for reference, this is why you voted Proph
and its idk, its like pretty bad? tom had him as a main suspect and died
like y'all could've removed this from this post, and it probably wouldn't be as bad, but like NKA this early to push a case, just doesn't come off as pure
and who are you to decide what is easy or not?
Alright, I've finally caught up (note to self: never catch up in a 2.8k game again), this is roughly where I am at the moment:
Gemma
Prophylaxis r. Jackrito r. shadowlancerx
vezokpiraka
Grapefruit r. Slothful
Killjoy
Silvercrys3467
Lastwhisper
Nachomamma8
KittyCupCake
Axelrod
Rhand
Keldeo r. Mindreaver
Asta
fulcrum
tomsloger
Vaimes
dkingsland967
vezok: Claimed mason etc.
Grape: He was initially in my null/scumreads but I see he's claimed to be the other mason, which is great. I enjoy playing with town Grape.
Killjoy: Probably my strongest behavioral townread at the moment, mainly due to his early and mid-game play. Basically, I think he's trying to apply lessons learned from previous games in this one and I think he's doing a fantastic job of it. He had some good questions in post 92 and I liked the discourse between him and Gemma early game and midgame:
Quote from Killjoy »
Gemma: TBH, all this push for readslists doesn't look specifically town to me. The townie version of this is you're trying to fill holes in peoples reads to gauge consistency/inconsistency but then you'd probably just be asking specific people specific questions instead of doing it this way. KCC mentioned that she, as scum, used people's reads to gauge who to mislynch. Or maybe you're doing the opposite, seeing where your buddies fall on them... but my point in general is you're doing what you're doing in the least town way possible.
This doesn't feel at all like how scum!KJ would treat a fairly competent and active town player here. Feels more likely that he would just shoo Gemma by the wayside and kind of let her do her thing if he was scum, rather than treat her awkwardly like this.
Liked his posts 788 and 954, these posts show a lot of transparency WRT thought process (specifically the part where he talks about Mindreaver's Hulk Hogan bravado and he compares Mind's behavior to himself).
Silvercrys: Haven't played with Silver in a while, so I am not sure what advancements he has made to his meta (Silver: Do you have a completed scum game thus far?). His 45 initially pinged me a little bit - the "Mrgle" felt a little fake and it felt like scum trying to push out of RVS awkwardly (Nacho's 62 explained why I didn't like Silver's post 45 far more intelligently than I can). This initially prickled me but I liked his engagement with Nacho coming out of RVS (Nacho/Silver also probably not aligned). I agreed with him on what he said about the Mindreaver posts and I liked his play in the middle of Day 1; he was kind of complaining about "THERE'S NOTHING TO DO!" but I appreciated the quote chain of replies and the Axel ISO. His Axel ISO feels like he doesn't know Axel's alignment; there's a type of nuance and wishy-washiness in that post that I think is quite difficult to fake if he's scum here.
Lastwhisper: He's definitely acting like his usual self, and it's a little different reading him on a site like this where he's not a big fish in a small pond like his home site and more of an average player. Would like to sync up with him at some point because that's how we won a game over the summer. I liked where he was at on page 5 because his reads largely tracked with me at the time. I think Last is town because I've played with him a couple of times as town and just modded a game where he played scum. In that game, I felt like Last was less interested in solving and more interested in using his posting style as a way to throw people off in that people would never really bother to reread his posts until endgame because his style is kind of unlike the usual MTGS fare. In this game he's a lot more focused on trying to get people to interact with him and I think he's also poking in a lot of places I wouldn't expect scum!Last to poke. Think that his beef with Vaimes is kind of NAI but my gut tells me that he wouldn't make a huge show of it if he was mafia. Kind of want to interact with him more (and I'm sure I'll get the chance to) to really iron out this read but I think he's a good guy here (and I want him to be town tbh).
Nachomamma8: Yet another player I haven't played with in quite a while (last time must have been Gemma's 2666 Mafia, right?) - First off, I liked his play on page 2. Stirring stuff up then evaluating reactions to it while being semi-transparent doing so gets the thumbs up from me. I might be a sucker for posts that very clearly explain the player's thought process and reasoning for what they do, but I really like Nacho's 240 and how he was playing in general? His play early game still makes a fair amount of sense to me and he's still trying to solve here. He then kind of disappears in the middle of Day 1 (I assume due to Black Friday shenanigans and working retail etc). Specifically what I liked in his catchup post is him making a good point about dk's sterilness. Liked Nacho's approach in 1400 with regards to KCC, specifically the "you need to give me something here" quote. His post 1404 is also good wrt dkings.
Then I got to the part where Nacho fake-CCs KCC. What is the mafia motivation for scum!Nacho to CC here? I could be not thinking through things deeply enough, but if Nacho is scum and KCC is town, my guess is that he would have probably continued to push KCC and not risk drawing attention to himself by CCing, knowing that if he keeps making solid posts he probably wouldn't be suspected or lynched for a couple more Days at least. Him CCing then retracting the CC.. makes more sense to me from town!Nacho, because (to be honest) KCC's posts were pretty lackluster up until she got run up, then she started to send more clear townie signals (like the reads list and how she claimed her role). I can.. sort of understand town Nacho being like "ok, I'm doubting my own read on KCC after those past few posts, let me retract this CC".
It's like a super ballsy play if he's scum here and I don't think that he would risk it in a playerbase like this, where generally being reasonable and active can get you to endgame. I don't know Nacho extremely well and it's possible he snows me like this but I don't thiiiiiink he's mafia?
KittyCupCake: My read on her is sort of related to my read on Nacho. The very first thing I noted when I began to read the thread was looking at her post 5. My read on that post is weak, but I doooon't think this is an angle she takes as scum?
Granted, I don't have a lot of experience with scum!KCC, but I recall most of her scum victories were games where she won in an overwhelming fashion, playing super clean and not being heavily suspected. (Thinking about The Wall Mafia where she avoided nearly all suspicion). Now, that game was four years ago, but I don't think scum!KCC says this and then makes the mess of a claim she made at late EoD1. I think scum!KCC is a lot more cunning and would just play.. differently than this if she was mafia. Also Rhand's 309 tracks with what i was saying about KCC's post 5, which is good for him.
Just been thinking about KCC's role and.. not super inclined to think it's a hit. Can see worlds where town KCC looks at her role and claims early "my role is super scummy" but the scum counterpart to that is like, she doesn't claim early, then she obscures parts of her claim and makes it /sound/ town-like? Just kind of lacking in self awareness here. KCC's more convoluted ability IMO has to be a true part of her claim since I doubt that she would ever make that up as mafia. Like KCC's reads list; feels like it's from a townie about to die rather than scum clamming up (esp the stuff she says to Gemma about retaining her snarkiness in the spec chat; that's kiind of the roundabout thing that is natural for townies to think about but scum struggle to emulate).
Also, kind of unrelated, but I gifted an orb to Axel last Night in order to confirm the busdrive and it swapped over to Nacho, so we know that KCC is telling the truth here about the busdrive. So yeah, probably town.
Axelrod: My read on Axelrod was kind of all over the place when I was reading. Originally I found his posts early game to be quite underwhelming, and I said that I wanted pressure on Slothful/Axel because they both weren't really Doing Anything. Axel early game was mostly nitpicking at his own various issues, which didn't really give me a great sense of his alignment. Also wasn't a fan of his case on Mindreaver because it felt like he was trying to pick on low hanging fruit. I recall both scumreading Axel and Vaimes at one point but then backing off on that because I don't think the both of them are aligned. Then I saw the watcher claim, which is fine in my books. I like his Day 2 play a lot more than his Day 1 play; his going over reasoning why people were voting him reads as solvey and not agenda-driven. Coupled with the Watcher claim I'm willing to reverse my stance on him early game and I like him as town. Do think that if there any deep scum then he is worth re-examining because watcher claim isn't end-all be-all and his early game stuff kind of tripped me up a bit, but I've appreciated his analysis of his wagonees Today.
Rhand: Yet another person that I keep going back and forth on. I wasn't the biggest fan of his early game because he wasn't doing a whole lot, but I liked his early reads list because he dived into his thought process quite a bit (and tbh, it was helpful to someone like me who was catching up). His 309 I liked quite a bit because he thought the same thing as me WRT KCC. Another post I liked from him was post 770 since it's a pretty candid look at his mindset and why he is playing the way he is playing. Then the thing that I'm still kind of struggling with is how he voted KJ and was convinced he was scum; I disagree with that heavily because KJ is literally my top behavioral town read right now, and that made me scumread him when I was reading the thread. However, now that I think about it more, I don't think scum!Rhand willingly impales himself on a spear to lynch town!KJ if he is indeed scum. I agree with him WRT Vaimes being scum. So yeah, there's a couple of stuff that makes me think that he's town, but I'd like to engage with him more and get a better feeling on where he's at.
Keldeo: Keldeo I want to more of a deep dive on, because I thought Mindreaver displayed some decent townie tonal tells. WRT the Mindreaver slot, I liked his 280 for a catchup post and I sort of liked his 297, in particular the "will anyone talk to me" jam? Seems natural for a townie to has just caught up, to have someone want to engage with them on their readwall. Here's the thing that I was basing most of my Mind townread on, and I'm aware it's pretty weak in isolation:
Quote from Mindreaver »
Here is what's up for all you people for whom my disconnected posts are some reason to think I'm an easy mislynch. I'm not. I'm coming for you. And it's the biggest mistake you've made this game. I'm channeling my inner Sir Chris a bit ( an undeserved omage, I'm not half the player he is) but come at me, you've had me at a disadvantage where I was catch up posting in places to try and participate quickly, and come tomorrow that ***** is over, no more jetlag, hotel beds, and time zone switches, no more 10 hour days and team building at night, so yeah I'll be reading all 15 pages you guys write overnight and then I'll be so legit, you'll wish you rolled town with me. But if you're gonna bring that weak ass ***** where I somehow put a gif in the middle of some other irrelevant bull***** on day 4 of a three week day, and that's the best you got... buckle up mofos.
This is something that I don't think scum!Mindreaver posts? It feels like over the top bravado but it's bravado in a way where I think that scum Mindreaver would think twice about posting it and then decide not to.
WRT Keldeo specifically, I'd like to do a full ISO of him soonish when finals are over. I recall liking his first post, reinforces my read on the Mind slot quite a bit. Think they're displaying a lot of nuance in their catchup which I am a fan of.
Asta: His posts kind of seem to be On the Face to be newb scum? I would expect newb scum generally to lurk and be somewhat disengaged with the thread, and Asta is kind of enthusiastic and people with more experience than him than me tell me that this is his town self, so I guess he's okay in my book? Asta seems to be lacking in self awareness to be noob scum, possibly? 935 is a pretty nice post that explains their thought process.
I'm not really convinced that his double vote is a reason to townread him because we have masons in the game, but he seems behaviorally fine for me.
------
My reads thus far are more negative space reads where I have reasons for liking everyone else, so these people are kind of left by the wayside as my scumreads.
fulcrum: Simply put, I suck at reading her and I know her scum game is fairly solid, but she hasn't really done anything that is out of her range or screams villager to me. Think she's been playing very curt and somewhat guarded for most of the game which is naturally difficult to read. One of the posts I couldn't really understand even reading through it a bunch of times was her 337; I believe it was a decent look at her thought process but I was literally reading that entire paragraph like 2-3 times though and it made my eyes glaze over.
I'm not really sure what to make of her CC attempt other than the fact that I think what she claimed and Axel's role can coexist.
I dunno; I think I would like to do a full ISO of her at some point (and I'll probably get around to doing so) but I can just point to everyone else and tell you a reason why I think they're town. I see some like, minor town tells for fulcrum, but I can't build that towncase like I can for others. Maybe it's just because I've historically been Not Great at reading her, but that's where I'm at at this point.
tomsloger: To be frank I ignored most of his posts because I was catching up and don't have time to play interpreter to his gimmicks. I see that he's posted a LOT more and is no longer doing the song lyrics thing, so I will do my best to divine his alignment when I have some more free time. Other than that, negative space etc.
Now for the two people I am actually interested in seeing get the noose today: Vaimes and dkings..
Vaimes: Generally when Vaimes is town, he makes it pretty obvious, and I am not seeing the energy/tonal townie tells I am fairly used to seeing from him. When I was doing my read-through I thought that it was a lock that one of Axelrod or Vaimes was mafia and I now think that Axel is town, so yeah. Just wasn't a huge fan of his Nacho pressure in the early game when there was a fair amount else also going on and he just chose to latch onto Nacho. Then he hopped onto the Axel wagon and then hopped to the dk wagon for a little bit, then moved back onto Axelrod. The common trend with all of these votes is that he's mostly just following/bandwagoning other people rather than pursuing things really for himself, and also not the biggest fan of him voting Mindreaver when he was defending him. I understand his stated reasoning (929) but I feel like town Vaimes would dig in a little bit and avoid lynching people he's townreading as opposed to limp noodle voting him just because everyone else is and the game was stagnating around Mind. He was just latching onto Axel for most of Day 1 which makes me think he's a bad guy?
Not a whole lot to say about his claim - think he's probably trueclaiming as either alignment about being an inventor, and I think that worlds where he trades with vezok in order to get some town cred exist.
Vaimes, why do you think Nacho is mafia? Is it purely because of the chaos he started at EoD1? What do you think about the points I raise?
dkings: My issue with dkings is that he hasn't really done anything notable this game as opposed to Modern, where he was very quickly townread and got to be such a huge problem for the scum that scum!tom had to kill him in plain daylight. People have noted that his posts are sterile, and I agree with them. In this game, he started the wagon on vezok, After vezok claimed mason, he kind of floundered for most of Day 1. My issue with him is that, even though he states that he's having trouble engaging with the game, he's not really going through the effort of talking with his scumreads in order to get better reads on them. He's mostly playing passively with regards to them, stating they are mafia without directly questioning them or interrogating them. He hasn't really directly questioned KCC (his main scum read Yesterday) and he seems more content to quiz Vaimes on how his role works, and he hasn't really pressured fulcrum at all despite having her as someone he "wouldn't mind to see die Today".
dkings, why are you not directly questioning/grilling your scum suspects? Why are you content to treat them at arm's length rather than showing everyone why you think X or Y is mafia?
what exactly is bad about this? I make reads like that all the time, especially given that Proph likes to be sure of his thoughts?
I will do more thorough rereads after I finish the movie I am watching
also @Fulcrum I want you to know I am not trying to belittle you, I am just trying to understand you
Killjoy, vca is useful for narrowing down scum, but I'm not going to trust mylo to it, man.
Last, that post is literally two months old, I don't remember what I was thinking beyond disliking his read of Vaimes. I'll look over it again in a few hours, ok?
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if you are a wolf, me and vaimes were both pocketed, but at the same time both coming around to the possibility that you could be a wolf
Interesting
I guess she thinks we're partners now but if she's a wolf with Killjoy she's spewing Proph clear right now and Proph is the mislunch they need toMorrow?Killjoy's plan is to try to sell Asta on Last/fulcrum being partners??
Hum.
Vaimes wouldn't have wavered.
Do you think town!Proph cuts off half the context of a post when he's doing a deepread like that?
idk about that
and idk, can you show me where this is happening? and does the context change the meaning?
Yes, did you read my post at all?
OK.
Last: I still want you to look at the ISO so I can get your opinion on it.
Also, look at fulcrum's post, and tell me how relevant the context additions she made are to you? Is she being fair?
Could Proph/Silver be a thing? Maybe Proph's tunnel of fulcrum/me is a tactic instead of just being wrong?
So it's pretty much not Asta, not fulcrum.
That means one of Last/Silver/Proph is town.
@killjoy
What about you and fulcrum? Do you think your pushes on Rhand are not lip service? Even though they also dissolved into nothing?
Also, like... I know I'm biased but my progression on Rhand is right there in my ISO if you want to read it.
Also also I also said why I stopped focusing on Rhand. It's in 1277. But at the same time I see what you're saying from your perspective.
Does scum silver do that?
Am I wrong on Silver too?
DAMN IT WHO ARE THE SCUM?
And I'll will get to everything tonight, or at least try
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Curse PremiumHanlon's razor - don't assume a malicious intent when a simpler explanation exists.
Alright. In future, can you note the post number when you're quoting?
Proph, accusing you of deliberately making it harder to find information was over the line. I'm sorry.
Keldeo(6) - Vezok, Tom, Lastwhisper, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, Silvercrys
KittyCupCake(2) - Nacho, Gemma
Vezok(2) - DK, Keldeo
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
DK(1) - Asta
Rhand(1) - Killjoy
Vaimes(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(3) - Grape, Prophylaxis, Rhand
So this post was the height of the Mindreaver wagon, and the only two unknowns on that wagon are Silver and Last. Last's vote on that wagon was just 'yeet', following tom's vote. He justifies it later in 609, 610 as not believing that Mind believes this game shows Last at his towniest. It's also noteable that last is kinda buddying tom here, and later where tom thinks vezok is scum. And his T/S list later feels kinda like... he's placing people where he thinks he should as opposed to in response to actual reads.
This is around the time Axel/fulcrum/dk all claimed.It should also be that votecount I quoted that Silver made. I colored it myself. Last jumps off shortly after this, I think. In a scum!Last world, I suppose he jumped off because Rhand was there. He would later decide No Lynch is a better choice than dk for the final lynch of D1.
DK notably has Silver/Asta as unknowns in that little block as well. I'm less sure since that's a scum wagon though.
KittyCupCake(7) -DK, Gemma, Nacho, Tom, Lastwhisper, Vezok, Axelrod
DK (4) - Silvercrys, Asta, KittyCupCake, Grape
Axelrod(2) - Vaimes, Killjoy
Grape(2) - Rhand, fulcrum
Not Voting(3) - fulcrum, Prophylaxis, Keldeo
Middle of the Day, amidst a lot of wagon movement. I think this is just hours after the previous votecount I highlighted.
Axelrod(5) - Killjoy, Keldeo, Rhand, fulcrum, Vezok
No Lynch(5) -Vaimes, Silvercrys, KittyCupCake, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
DK (3) - Asta, Grape, Nacho
KittyCupCake(1) -DK
Grape(1) - Tom
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
This shortly follows. This time it’s Silver and Last on the No Lynch wagon in the block of town. IDK if “No LYnch” applies to Voxx’s theory, but I have a gut feeling that there’s scum here.
KittyCupCake(8) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta, Asta, Vezok, Lastwhisper, Keldeo
DK (4) - Grape, Nacho, Silvercrys, fulcrum
No Lynch(2) - Vaimes, Axelrod
Nacho(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
Here we can see Last and Asta being the only unknowns on the KCC wagon.
The whole of these last few votecounts happened in less than 24 hours time, and I feel like the presence of three seperate votecounts that illustrate my point in such a short stretch of time is relevant.
The whole of Day 3 is kinda weird re: votes.
Rhand (10) – Vezok, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Asta, Asta, Killjoy, Axelrod, Keldeo, lastwhisper, Vaimes
Axelrod (3) – fulcrum, DK, Rhand
Not Voting(2) – Grape, KittyCupCake
Here’s the final one. Last spent most of the Day voting Proph, then jumped in to help kill Rhand near the end. This final wagon has literally all the unknowns that aren’t fulcrum, and fulcrum is on a wagon with the two known scum. So this one is just… I really don’t know how to individually read anyone from this.
Keldeo (5) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
KittyCupCake(5) - Keldeo, Silvercrys, Vaimes, lastwhisper, Killjoy
Asta (1)- Prophylaxis
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(0)
This is the first votecount with the ‘only unknowns and town’ block present, and here we see Last and Silver again.
Keldeo (7) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, fulcrum, lastwhisper
KittyCupCake(4) - Keldeo, Silvercrys, Vaimes, Killjoy
Asta (1)- Prophylaxis
Not Voting(0)
In this one, last comes back to hammer Keldeo. This grouping includes last and fulcrum.
Day 5 and 6 just kinda has too many unknowns for me to really make sense of as well.
So here’s what I’m thinking here with regards to this: Silver/Last appear enough here that I don’t think they’re both scum together. With Silver also jumping in to cfd DK at the end of day 1, It's probably not Silver.
It might not be Asta with Last, but for that and Silver to be town together the DK wagon in the Gemma VC would have to be all town. It's possible, but I'm not sure sure about it.
IDK who of Proph/fulcrum/Asta his partner would be. I think I've elinimated both of them as scum for some reason prior to this. At least one of those would be wrong in that world.
I'm not super confident in most aspects of Mafia. This, specifically VCA, is something I feel like is something in my wheelhouse to do and analyze, and is something others I respect as analysts do. I know it shouldn't be the only tool in a person's arsenal (It's not the only thing I do either) but it's one of the things I can grasp and feel good about.
Like, scum PROBABLY don't all cluster up. It's not a thing that usually happens. This case is predicated on that.I hope that's not wrong this game.
Hey, I finally found time to make this case.
To reiterate, Last keeps showing up in these clusters. That's not generally normal for Town to do. That's my point.
Also here's all the votecounts through D5 so you guys can see just everything together so you can see if I'm being fair about this.
Lastwhisper(2) - Gemma, Nacho
Keldeo(2) - Vezok, Tom
Asta(1) - Grape
Gemma(1) - Killjoy
KittyCupCake(1) - Axelrod
Nacho(1) - Vaimes
Rhand(1) - Silvercrys
Silvercrys(1) - Prophylaxis
Grape(1) - KittyCupCake
Not Voting(6) - Lastwhisper, Rhand, DK, Keldeo, fulcrum, Asta
1.01
Axelrod(4) - Rhand, Nacho, Gemma, Vaimes
Vezok(3) - Lastwhisper, DK, Keldeo
Asta(1) - Grape
fulcrum(1) - Tom
Gemma(1) - Killjoy
KittyCupCake(1) - Axelrod
Keldeo(1) - Vezok
Rhand(1) - Silvercrys
Silvercrys(1) - Prophylaxis
Not Voting(3) - KittyCupCake, fulcrum, Asta
1.02
DK(4) - Nacho, Gemma, Vaimes, Asta
Vezok(3) - DK, Killjoy, Keldeo
Axelrod(1) - Rhand
Asta(1) - Grape
fulcrum(1) - Tom
KittyCupCake(1) - Axelrod
Killjoy(1) - Lastwhisper
Keldeo(1) - Vezok
Rhand(1) - Silvercrys
Silvercrys(1) - Prophylaxis
Not Voting(3) - KittyCupCake, fulcrum
1.03
Rhand(4) - Silvercrys, Gemma, fulcrum, Killjoy
DK(3) - Nacho, Vaimes, Asta
Vezok(3) - DK, Keldeo, Rhand
Asta(1) - Grape
fulcrum(1) - Tom
KittyCupCake(1) - Axelrod
Keldeo(1) - Vezok
Prophylaxis(1) - Lastwhisper
Not Voting(2) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis
1.04
DK(3) - Nacho, Vaimes, Asta
Keldeo(3) - Vezok, Tom, Lastwhisper
Rhand(3) - Silvercrys, fulcrum, Killjoy
Vezok(3) - DK, Keldeo, Rhand
Asta(1) - Grape
KittyCupCake(1) - Axelrod
Not Voting(3) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis, Gemma
1.05
Keldeo(4) - Vezok, Tom, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
Rhand(3) - Silvercrys, fulcrum, Killjoy
Vezok(3) - DK, Keldeo, Rhand
DK(2) - Nacho, Asta
Asta(1) - Grape
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
Not Voting(3) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis, Gemma
1.06
Keldeo(4) - Vezok, Tom, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
Rhand(3) - Silvercrys, fulcrum, Killjoy
Vezok(3) - DK, Keldeo, Rhand
DK(2) - Nacho, Asta
Asta(1) - Grape
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
Not Voting(3) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis, Gemma
1.07
Keldeo(6) - Vezok, Tom, Lastwhisper, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, Silvercrys
KittyCupCake(2) - Nacho, Gemma
Vezok(2) - DK, Keldeo
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
DK(1) - Asta
Rhand(1) - Killjoy
Vaimes(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(3) - Grape, Prophylaxis, Rhand
1.08
KittyCupCake(3) - Nacho, Gemma, DK
Keldeo(3) - Vezok, KittyCupCake, Silvercrys
Vaimes(3) - fulcrum, Tom, Lastwhisper
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
DK(1) - Asta
Rhand(1) - Killjoy
Vezok(1) - Keldeo
Not Voting(4) - Grape, Prophylaxis, Rhand, Axelrod
1.09
KittyCupCake(4) - Nacho, Gemma, DK, Asta
Keldeo(2) - Vezok, KittyCupCake
Vaimes(2) - fulcrum, Tom
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
Killjoy(1) - Rhand
Tom(1) - Grape
Not Voting(6) - Prophylaxis, Axelrod, Killjoy, Lastwhisper, Silvercrys, Keldeo
1.10
KittyCupCake(5) - Nacho, Gemma, DK, Asta, Vezok
Grape(2) - Tom, Rhand
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
Keldeo(1) - KittyCupCake
Tom(1) - Grape
Vaimes(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(6) - Prophylaxis, Axelrod, Killjoy, Lastwhisper, Silvercrys, Keldeo
1.11
DK (3) - Gemma, Silvercrys, Nacho
KittyCupCake(3) -DK, Asta, Vezok
Vaimes(3) - fulcrum, Lastwhisper, Keldeo
Grape(2) - Tom, Rhand
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
Keldeo(1) - KittyCupCake
Tom(1) - Grape
Not Voting(3) - Prophylaxis, Axelrod, Killjoy
1.12
KittyCupCake(4) -DK, Vezok, Gemma, Nacho
DK (3) - Silvercrys, Asta, KittyCupCake
Vaimes(2) - fulcrum, Lastwhisper
Grape(2) - Tom, Rhand
Axelrod(1) - Vaimes
Tom(1) - Grape
Not Voting(4) - Prophylaxis, Axelrod, Killjoy, Keldeo
1.13
DK (4) - Silvercrys, Asta, KittyCupCake, Grape
KittyCupCake(3) -DK, Gemma, Nacho
Axelrod(3) - Vaimes, Lastwhisper, Killjoy
Grape(2) - Tom, Rhand
Not Voting(5) - fulcrum, Prophylaxis, Axelrod, Keldeo, Vezok
1.14
KittyCupCake(6) -DK, Gemma, Nacho, Tom, Lastwhisper, Vezok
DK (4) - Silvercrys, Asta, KittyCupCake, Grape
Axelrod(2) - Vaimes, Killjoy
Grape(2) - Rhand, fulcrum
Not Voting(4) - fulcrum, Prophylaxis, Axelrod, Keldeo
1.15
KittyCupCake(7) -DK, Gemma, Nacho, Tom, Lastwhisper, Vezok, Axelrod
DK (4) - Silvercrys, Asta, KittyCupCake, Grape
Axelrod(2) - Vaimes, Killjoy
Grape(2) - Rhand, fulcrum
Not Voting(3) - fulcrum, Prophylaxis, Keldeo
1.16
Axelrod(5) - Killjoy, Keldeo, Rhand, fulcrum, Vezok
DK (5) - Asta, KittyCupCake, Grape, Nacho, Lastwhisper
KittyCupCake(2) -DK, Axelrod
Grape(1) - Tom
Not Voting(3) -Vaimes, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis
1.17
Axelrod(5) - Killjoy, Keldeo, Rhand, fulcrum, Vezok
No Lynch(5) -Vaimes, Silvercrys, KittyCupCake, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
DK (3) - Asta, Grape, Nacho
KittyCupCake(1) -DK
Grape(1) - Tom
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.18
DK (4) - Asta, Grape, Nacho, Keldeo
No Lynch(4) -Vaimes, Silvercrys, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
KittyCupCake(3) -DK, Killjoy, Tom
Axelrod(2) - fulcrum, Vezok
fulcrum(1) - KittyCupCake
Nacho(1) - Rhand
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.19
DK (4) - Asta, Grape, Nacho, Keldeo
KittyCupCake(4) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta
No Lynch(4) - Vaimes, Silvercrys, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
Axelrod(2) - fulcrum, Vezok
fulcrum(1) - KittyCupCake
Nacho(1) - Rhand
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.20
DK (4) - Asta, Grape, Nacho, Keldeo
KittyCupCake(4) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta
No Lynch(4) - Vaimes, Silvercrys, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
Axelrod(2) - fulcrum, Vezok
fulcrum(1) - KittyCupCake
Nacho(1) - Rhand
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.21
KittyCupCake(5) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta, Asta
No Lynch(4) - Vaimes, Silvercrys, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
DK (3) - Grape, Nacho, Keldeo
Axelrod(2) - fulcrum, Vezok
Nacho(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.22
KittyCupCake(5) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta, Asta
DK (5) - Grape, Nacho, Keldeo, Silvercrys, fulcrum
No Lynch(3) - Vaimes, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
Nacho(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake
Axelrod(1) - Vezok
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.23
KittyCupCake(6) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta, Asta, Vezok
DK (5) - Grape, Nacho, Keldeo, Silvercrys, fulcrum
No Lynch(3) - Vaimes, Lastwhisper, Axelrod
Nacho(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
1.24
KittyCupCake(8) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta, Asta, Vezok, Lastwhisper, Keldeo
DK (4) - Grape, Nacho, Silvercrys, fulcrum
No Lynch(2) - Vaimes, Axelrod
Nacho(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake
Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
Final D1 (1.25)
KittyCupCake(7) - DK, Killjoy, Tom, Asta, Asta, Vezok, Lastwhisper
DK (4) - Grape, Nacho, Silvercrys, fulcrum
No Lynch(2) - Vaimes, Axelrod
Nacho(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake
Not Voting(2) -Keldeo, Prophylaxis
3.00
KittyCupCake (1) - Vaimes
Not Voting(13) -Keldeo, Prophylaxis, DK, Killjoy, Asta, Vezok, Lastwhisper, Grape, Silvercrys, fulcrum, Axelrod, Rhand, KittyCupCake
3.01
Keldeo (3) – Killjoy, Asta, Asta
Prophylaxis (2) - Keldeo, lastwhisper
DK (1) – Prophylaxis
KittyCupCake (1) - Vaimes
Rhand (1) - Vezok
Not Voting(7) - DK , Grape, Silvercrys, fulcrum, Axelrod, Rhand, KittyCupCake
3.02
Rhand (6) – Vezok, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Asta, Asta, Killjoy
Axelrod (3) – Vaimes, fulcrum, DK
Prophylaxis (2) - Keldeo, lastwhisper
Keldeo (1) – Rhand
Not Voting(3) – Grape, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
3.03
Rhand (7) – Vezok, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Asta, Asta, Killjoy, Axelrod
Axelrod (4) – Vaimes, fulcrum, DK, Rhand
Prophylaxis (2) - Keldeo, lastwhisper
Not Voting(2) – Grape, KittyCupCake
Final D3 (3.04)
Rhand (10) – Vezok, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis, Asta, Asta, Killjoy, Axelrod, Keldeo, lastwhisper, Vaimes
Axelrod (3) – fulcrum, DK, Rhand
Not Voting(2) – Grape, KittyCupCake
4.00
Keldeo (4) - lastwhisper, Asta, DK, Vezok
Prophylaxis(2) - Vaimes, fulcrum
fulcrum(1) - Prophylaxis
Not Voting(5) - Silvercrys, Killjoy, Axelrod, Keldeo, KittyCupCake
4.01
Keldeo (5) - lastwhisper, Asta, DK, Vezok, Vaimes
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(6) – Prophylaxis, Silvercrys, Killjoy, Axelrod, Keldeo, KittyCupCake
4.02
Keldeo (5) - lastwhisper, Asta, DK, Vezok, Vaimes
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(6) – Prophylaxis, Silvercrys, Killjoy, Axelrod, Keldeo, KittyCupCake
4.03
Keldeo (3) - Asta, DK, Vezok
Axelrod (1) - Vaimes
KittyCupCake(1) - Keldeo
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(6) – lastwhisper, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys, Killjoy, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
4.04
Keldeo (3) - Asta, DK, Vezok
Axelrod (1) - Vaimes
KittyCupCake(1) - Keldeo
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(6) – lastwhisper, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys, Killjoy, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
4.05
Keldeo (5) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
Axelrod (1) - Vaimes
KittyCupCake(1) - Keldeo
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(4) – lastwhisper, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys, Killjoy
4.06
Keldeo (5) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
Axelrod (1) - Vaimes
KittyCupCake(1) - Keldeo
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(4) – lastwhisper, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys, Killjoy
4.07
Keldeo (6) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, Vaimes
Asta (2)- Prophylaxis, lastwhisper
KittyCupCake(1) - Keldeo
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(2) – Silvercrys, Killjoy
4.08
Keldeo (6) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, Vaimes
Asta (2)- Prophylaxis, lastwhisper
KittyCupCake(2) - Keldeo, Silvercrys
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(1) – Killjoy
4.09
Keldeo (5) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
KittyCupCake(5) - Keldeo, Silvercrys, Vaimes, lastwhisper, Killjoy
Asta (1)- Prophylaxis
Prophylaxis(1) - fulcrum
Not Voting(0)
4.10
Keldeo (6) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, fulcrum
KittyCupCake(5) - Keldeo, Silvercrys, Vaimes, lastwhisper, Killjoy
Asta (1)- Prophylaxis
Not Voting(0)
Final D4 (4.11)
Keldeo (7) - Asta, DK, Vezok, Axelrod, KittyCupCake, fulcrum, lastwhisper
KittyCupCake(5) - Keldeo, Silvercrys, Vaimes, Killjoy
Asta (1)- Prophylaxis
Not Voting(0)
5.00
Prophylaxis (2) – fulcrum, Vaimes
fulcrum (1) - Silvercrys
Silvercrys (1) – lastwhisper
Not Voting(6) - Asta, DK, Vezok, KittyCupCake, Killjoy, Prophylaxis
5.01
Prophylaxis (3) – fulcrum, Vaimes, Asta
Asta (2) - Vezok, Prophylaxis
fulcrum (1) - Silvercrys
Silvercrys (1) – lastwhisper
DK (1) - KittyCupCake
Not Voting(2) - DK, Killjoy
5.02
Prophylaxis (3) – fulcrum, Vaimes, Asta
Asta (2) - Vezok, Prophylaxis
fulcrum (1) - Silvercrys
Silvercrys (1) – lastwhisper
DK (1) - KittyCupCake
Not Voting(2) - DK, Killjoy
5.03
Prophylaxis (4) – fulcrum, Vaimes, Asta, DK
DK (3) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis, Vezok
Asta (1)- lastwhisper
fulcrum (1) - Silvercrys
Not Voting(1) - Killjoy
5.04
Prophylaxis (4) – fulcrum, Vaimes, Asta, DK
DK (4) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis, Vezok, lastwhisper
Asta (1)- Silvercrys
Not Voting(1) - Killjoy
5.05
DK (4) - KittyCupCake, Prophylaxis, Vezok, lastwhisper
Prophylaxis (3) – fulcrum, Asta, DK
Not Voting(3) - Silvercrys, Vaimes, Killjoy
5.06
Prophylaxis (3) – fulcrum, DK, KittyCupCake
DK (2) - Prophylaxis, Vezok
KittyCupCake (1) - lastwhisper
Not Voting(4) - Silvercrys, Vaimes, Killjoy, Asta
5.07
DK (4) - Prophylaxis, Vezok, Lastwhisper, Asta
Prophylaxis (3) – fulcrum, DK, KittyCupCake
Not Voting(3) - Silvercrys, Vaimes, Killjoy
5.08
DK (3) - Prophylaxis, Vezok, Asta
Prophylaxis (2) – fulcrum, DK
Fulcrum (2) - KittyCupCake, Lastwhisper
Not Voting(3) - Silvercrys, Vaimes, Killjoy
5.09
DK (5) - Prophylaxis, Vezok, Lastwhisper, fulcrum, Killjoy
Fulcrum (2) - KittyCupCake, Asta
Prophylaxis (1) – DK
Not Voting(2) - Silvercrys, Vaimes
Final D5 (5.10)
DK (6) - Prophylaxis, Vezok, Lastwhisper, fulcrum, Killjoy, Silvercrys
Fulcrum (2) - KittyCupCake, Asta
Prophylaxis (1) – DK
Not Voting(1) - Vaimes
but they are really just, "doesnt happen a lot, but it could be happening here"
"math says one of a group of 5 is probably a wolf"
except that grouping holds, you and silver, and even then you are arguing this on a wagon a 1/4 of the way through the day, which means less then if it was near the end. Nothing says a wolf has to be on that wagon, its flawed logic that can be correct, but its inherently worse to read off in many situations when there are better things to look at
Ill get to everything later today since its my day off, and the final real day for me to get my thoughts in before day end, in which I will be stuck at work
its just logic you either just to believe, or choose not to, and in reality holds no definite correct answer, which makes it nothing you should fully embrace
Asta I don't know well, but fulcrum, Proph, and Silver are very distinctly not Tom and vezok.
I kind of like KJ's vote analysis but like Last said I don't think he has any really believable partners
Last/fulcrum could maybe work, I guess, but we just lunch fulcrum there anyway and then argue about who the last wolf is in F4
Yeah think it's just fulcrum/Killjoy but down to lunch fulcrum and argue about it toMorrow
Last having a full suite of abilities on top of his role claim.
If it's not just my theory, then maybe that role is just like a small part of his role. None of the effects of his role seen to be targeted, or require any real strategy on his part.
Maybe it's just:
Passive ability Dream: During pregame and each night, choose one of these words. The thread title will reflect this choice, and an unknown effect will be in effect that Day.
One shot ability: Message
One shot ability: bus drive (or deflect?)
His claimed role doesn't need to be all he has. I've been saying how uninteractive his role is. As such it might not be his entire role.
Why are we going to assume I am able to do more than one thing each night, on top of my dreaming god, which literally affects the game state
It's getting really hard for me to see my self voting Silver here
That point, btw is why I theorized about your role being factional. Because then it's not you but your team choosing. But that's not necessary for you to have other abilities.
the names of the dreams are hints
and I didn't even want to originally use Revenge after a mafia death because I was afraid of the consequences...
of course, I don't choose targets, again, dreaming gods affect the game state or people at random...
ok so I read your response to Proph, and I actually really like it
I am willing to agree, that Silver definitely wasnt as gun blazing for Rhand's head as Proph seems to believe
if anything you and Killjoy were on Rhand's ass, and you both gave better reasonings from what I remember, while Silver is just like, "he is weird"
also the whole placing Mindreaver as a wolf because he liked Rhand? just comes off as a chainsaw, in the off chance Rhand does get lynched
and I will say that Silver is still really good with wordplay, as well as pushing what he wants
the only thing those games lack is volume
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Curse PremiumAnd that's my point. I feel like if Silver and Rhand were buddies, they would spend more effort into making their distancing seem more like distancing. The fact that Silver was scumreading Rhand because Rhand was townreading him is a /really/ strange angle to take if they're scum together.
Also was busier than expected yesterday, should be able to sink some time into this game this evening
#1313
I just don't see why this particular vote count means anything? like especially when its just tied wagons? 4 days before EoD? a lot can easily happen in that time, as nobody is going to get lynched early on day 1
#2088
#2077? Silver removes his vote on no lynch, and puts DK one below KCC
#2123? we are now at tied wagons between a town and a wolf, with wolf!Silver's vote making his possible partner tied with kcc
and at this point both scum worlds of wolf!fulcrum and wolf!Silver, are voting their hypothetical partner
both votes mean nothing since KCC is at 8 and DK is at 4, so easy distancing
like this vote is bad overall, no explanation, just votes against the wolf here
at this point, both fulcrum and Silver
have their possible partner tied against at own
this is the same day as EoD, so like one of them is bussing here
so like in the end, I don't really believe that fulcrum/Silver, ended on good votes
given that this is the end vote
this was a mistake, the wagons are still tied, idk what happened here
"Dont think either silver/fulcrum ended on good votes"
in regards to one or the others' vote being better then the other, since one of them has to be the wolf here, which means one of them is bussing
My point is that nothing about your role is connected to you. There's no... accountability. There's no commitment.
Rhand
Keldeo
I think Vaimes' usage and attitude around his role are town, done looking there. Tom's clearly trying to solve, Nacho as well. Asta's newbtown. Vezok is a mason.
Silver, Lastwhisper and Killjoy are all pushing against the grain, probably town.
Game feels p easy. Kill Rhand and Keldeo, probably hit scum, go from there.[/quote]
I dont get how you go from this, to voting Proph 3 pages later in your iso
EDWOP, had to fix that mess sorry
for reference, this is why you voted Proph
and its idk, its like pretty bad?
tom had him as a main suspect and died
like y'all could've removed this from this post, and it probably wouldn't be as bad, but like NKA this early to push a case, just doesn't come off as pure
and who are you to decide what is easy or not?
also @Fulcrum I want you to know I am not trying to belittle you, I am just trying to understand you
Last, that post is literally two months old, I don't remember what I was thinking beyond disliking his read of Vaimes. I'll look over it again in a few hours, ok?