Are any of you even going to use the extra time? Lile, Silver is locked in on mod game is the specific way thay bemefits him, Proph and Asta aren't even here and I doubt that's going to change, killjoy's just yelling at people, last is going through his mood swings and I'm, uh, occupied. What good will dragging this out even do?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Silver is locked in on mod game is the specific way thay bemefits him, Proph and Asta aren't even here and I doubt that's going to change, killjoy's is no longer yelling at people, last is going through his mood swings and I'm, uh, occupied.
again, our votes do nothing
as long as nobody puts someone past 2, and even then that requires me or proph to be a wolf
or a Silver/Asta world
I am not a wolf so you don't have to worry about that world, so the proph/me world isnt a thing
so like, thats not a problem
we already lose to an asta/proph world if they are ever on at the same time, but I doubt that
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
The missing abilities were a roleblock on proph and fulcrum and last getting switched, right?
In scum!proph world, the roleblock didn't happen. He probably just never used an ability that night.
In a scum fulcrum world, Maybe fulcrum has a lightning rod to Vaimes so that she could trade for fulcrum's nonmafia ability? It makes more sense I think than busdriving last with anyone. Last shouldn't really be a high priority target in most worlds.
In scum Last world, the bus drive (which would exist in this world probably) might be to push investigatives away from him. MAybe he has a self-bus drive or some *****. Although no one was really suspecting him at that point? Coexists with scum!fulcrum world.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Why would last and I bus drive each other if we were both scum? Also, why would I lightning rod Vaimes to me when he had an unknown ability from you?
You wouldn't bus drive last if you're both scum. In that world you're just a lightning rod.
To give Vaimes your investigative ability. I think you did that before I got the vest, so perhaps you planned to kill me?
That's not the best theory. Just brainstorming atm.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
He targetted me because I asked. Then, he targetted you, because I cleared you and I approved it, and got an ability. Then, he targetted last but it hit me instead. If I wanted him to target me, I just would have asked again.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Still want to hear Asta's thoughts on the KJ/fulcrum team as well as what his thoughts are on Silver, all he did over the weekend was confirm his double vote.
Fulcrum has pretty solid reasoning as to why she is not mafia; her making the swap from me onto dk when dk was lynched was the thing that made me re-evaluate on her in the first place. Probably gonna go through Silver's early game posts tomorrow and try to weigh Silver's early game behavior vs fulcrum's end game behavior and see which one is more condemning for either one.
Just like, the early game is /super/ weird if Silver is scum. Silver just decides to bus Rhand out of the gates early then switches to Mindreaver then dkingsland. Think he still pressures Rhand D2 when vezok decided Nacho needed to get the axe then he lead the charge for a Rhand lynch Day 3.
Quote from Fulcrum »
Maybe I'm seeing things here, but this is weird, right? Like, Killjoy isn't the highest poster with Last rn, it's Silver. Is he not recognizing Silver there because they're partners?
I mean, maybe, but that would require scum Asta to keep his double vote in lylo and for Silver and Asta to be bussing dkings Day 1 when KCC was /right there/. Your eye for something like that is uncanny though.
Honestly it's interesting that in the EoD1 vote count Asta is voting along with dkings, whom Asta was scumreading for most of Day 1. Again this is kind of a note for me to look at context.
This friggin temper tantrum argument is kind of making me think that Last and KJ are town/town lol. What the heck does that leave the scum team as? Silver/fulcrum pulling the Taredas/Tarhalindur level squeeze gambit on us? Silver/Asta somehow just trying to distance on Day 1?
Quote from Lastwhisper »
@Proph
talk to me about a wolf!Silver world
If Silver is a wolf, he's played a goddamn excellent game with either of his two partners, Asta or fulcrum. If it's fulcrum then honestly that team deserves a gold medal for outplaying us nearly the entire game. If it's Asta, then Asta still has his double vote even though it's lylo and that hypothetical team revved up the bussing and distancing as soon as the game began.
Both outcomes are fairly unlikely according to the razor, which still has me set on fulcrum/KJ. Especially since Silver is going up to bat and defending me - if he's scum here there's fairly little reason to do that other than to pocket me. IMO he has a much easier way out of this lylo by keeping me on the table as an option
Killjoy: Why are you asking specifically Silver about my behavior? Why aren't, you know, just asking ME and grilling ME about my actions? I feel like we haven't talked a whole lot this entire game so it feels weird to me that you're grilling Silver about me as opposed to, y'know, just asking me
Quote from Silvercrys »
Just to set the record straight
If I was a wolf, narrowing the PoE as far as I have is not a game winning plan
I'd be leaving Proph and Last open as possible votes as best I could and doubt casting mechanical info, not leaning into it, because the mechanics trap me into voting fulcrum and there's a lot of resistance to lunching her (pretty much exactly Proph/Asta wanted to vote her yesterDay and either of them are liable to turn on me, bad plan unless my partner is Last lmao)
But whatever happens I did the best I could with the time I have, sorry I don't have hours at my disposal to make "real" cases anymore but at least I'll have this game to point back to later
This post is big mood
Yeahhh this is barring reread but if Silver is scum I'm willing to just tip my hat to him and say ggs, he's played a hell of a wolf game if he's a wolf here. If he and Asta just distanced heavily early game and he's making posts of this caliber late game then yeah you got it
Quote from Killjoy »
@Proph: Talk to me about those orbs. Like, the blue one, if they target a blue/orange orb person, can protect them. Does it give them the option to take a night action to target a person? Or do they already have to have an ability to do so?
No, orbs don't give people the ability to take night actions, they just come as an added modifier if they already have a night action.
Quote from KJ »
I read Proph's ISO. I disagree that he's not scum with dk for the reasons you're saying. He vaguely yet strongly scumreads DK for a lot of the game, never really interacts with him. He fully believes that DK was cleared for the bodyguard thing despite such a scumread.
Dude, what are you talking? Early game I was the one who was questioning why dkings wasn't interacting with his scumreads, and when Asta "confirmed" that dkings was a bodyguard I backed off because I thought dkings mechanically confirmed himself
Had some minor doubts when reading through the last five pages but I'm still set on the team just being fulcrum/KJ
Last is always town here
Asta.. I'm still like, a little paranoid because he has just been generally low-content all game and he has a double vote when there are masons in the game, but he's only ever scum with Silver and I think Silver is town, soo
I'm gonna spend Tomorrow just focusing on solving Silver because he's basically the key to the entire game right here, but gun to head right now I think he's just town. As I keep saying the gamestate becomes really weird if he/Asta are mafia and his posts Today I have trouble believing can come from scum!him. Again, as he keeps saying - there's like no reason for him to pocket me if he's mafia here, he has a way easier time if it's Silver/Asta going after me or potentially Last and keeping his options open. If fulcrum/him are a team then GGs.
Which leaves KJ and fulcrum. Fulcrum.. like a lot of her micro posts are townie, and I don't understand why she has the cop ability if she's mafia, but when you look at the bigger picture the only way anything makes sense is if she/KJ are a team and they just mechanically trapped themselves. And they're both like, angling at Silver trying to get either one of me or Asta to vote Silver so they can quickhammer. And like KJ is going after me now because he has no options I feel. If I had to describe a player in this game who is actively working to expand the PoE then KJ would be it.
It just feels weird to me because god, KJ was my top town read for most of the game. His posts early were stellar and even now I'm still doubting a little that he could be scum (b.c of his argument with Last). This team just makes the /most sense/, though. Nothing else does.
I'll reread tomorrow to double check my assumptions but I've replayed and thought about this game over and over in my head and I really do think a fulcrum/KJ solve just wins us the game.
Proph, I need a repeat of What Mafia is This from you. I'm town. If you're town, you're being pocketed and I need you to find it. Look at my posts to Rhand and dk, look at how they treated me. Look at the assumptions Silver is making about mechanics, assuming there's no pool of scum abilities. I am not scum here.
Not Voting(4) - Killjoy, Prophylaxis, Lastwhisper, Asta
After evaluating the game EOD has been extended
Day Seven ends on February 14th at 11:59 AM PST.
The Current Season is Summer.
With 6 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Best way to not get lunched is to find and lunch wolves imo
I'd be happy to listen to alternative theories to the "Killjoy copied KCC (and maybe Keldeo)" theory as long as they don't involve things that Probably Aren't True like a whole extra role's worth of factional abilities
I actually have one of those already but it involves there only being one wolf currently alive so I'm not super concerned with it right now
(It's Asta because then they would have a double vote and a janitored day kill plus a back up, so maybe they only had three bodies to begin with)
Best way to not get lunched is to find and lunch wolves imo
I'd be happy to listen to alternative theories to the "Killjoy copied KCC (and maybe Keldeo)" theory as long as they don't involve things that Probably Aren't True like a whole extra role's worth of factional abilities
I actually have one of those already but it involves there only being one wolf currently alive so I'm not super concerned with it right now
(It's Asta because then they would have a double vote and a janitored day kill plus a back up, so maybe they only had three bodies to begin with)
I just checked, DK had the janitored daykill. Rather, his daykill hid the alignment of the person he killed, so that theory is out.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Probably wolves sitting on Axelrod trying to force us to hammer him at deadline.
[Rhand / Last / Keldeo / Vaimes / fulcrum]
Probably two of those in approximately that order, or my reads are upside down.
Start off wagon though, basically has to be 1 in [dkingsland / tom / Proph] or someone snowed me.
dkingsland wagon still pure as hell and he's off wagon in this vote count and he's not the watcher.
I endorse the "KCC busdrives Axel and Axel watches her" plan.
Okay I wasn't supposed to be on the computer at all and I've been here for almost two hours, might be able to do another unofficial count before deadline but no promises.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Killjoy seems okay. I like Gemma and Vaimes, mostly tonally though Vaimes is doing good work too.
Last night I kind of felt like Nacho realized he wasn't getting anywhere and tried to backpedal... partly because I don't really feel like I tried to sort him, myself, so his town lean on me gave me a bit of whiplash. I guess it coulda been a bad push on purpose to force interactions which is what I think he's representing now but like. I'm gonna let that read stew some more, I think.
Preview edit: I like Sloth's last few posts, as well.
Mmm.
vote: Rhand
Think Silver did this when most of the early game *****posting was over
Unless something radical changed in Silver's scum playstyle (I mean, I've never played with him as scum) don't thiiiink he goes "yeah here's my post evaluating the early game, vote my buddy". If Silver is scum it's just way safer for him to push a townie to kick things off right? Gonna read more but that's my gut instinct to this post
Quote from Silver »
There isn't a connection between the post and the vote. I'm voting Rhand because he's pinging me but I can't really explain why, his posts just feel weird.
Feels like scum Silver would probably embellish this a little more to get the town cred rather than explain it like this?
He continues to explain his scumread of Asta here
Quote from Silver »
Rhand's post didn't really move the needle for me, no. It's a good post but it doesn't really resolve the weirdness, I'll have to iso him later toDay and try to explain what it is... but I think it's more natural for him to try to win me over than OMGUS me especially after Eurovision lol, and the rest of the reads are like... reasonable but nothing that I really think he wouldn't/couldn't make as a wolf.
This really isn't a read you make to a scumbuddy right? Especially the whole "win me over" part.
I know that if I was scum and pressuring a buddy early like scum!Silver is ostensibly doing in this situation, once your scumbuddy starts getting themselves in the game and makes a large post or something I'd probably just back off on them and focus on advancing the mafia win condition. Him continuing to needle Rhand over this doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Silver is scum unless Silver wanted to distance really early on in the game
Quote from Silver »
Rhand but not for any reason you'd probably find compelling, his posts feel weird and he has a strong town read on me that kind of feels like TMI to me.
Silver continuing to push on Rhand for this reason is again weird if he's scum; feels like they'd both just mutually townread each other or would get into some sort of sparring match/fake fight if they're both mafia together, right?
Quote from Silver »
@Rhand: Nothing to do with your meta, I don't think, it's like... I wolf read tom hard for what seemed like a bad wolf read on me in Eurovision so it seems more natural for wolves who were also in that game to see that and fake a town read instead of "poking the bear", as it were.
Unless you meant you don't wall as a wolf which would be... eh? Maybe? I think you posted a readslist like your early one here in Eurovision though... not going to verify that on mobile but I'll probably check later when I get to a PC.
Anyway there's a general lack of paranoia about me which is... not unwelcome, exactly, but it makes *me* a bit paranoid and your early town read sticks out.
It is kind of odd that I expressed interest in switching wagons and some people voted you, though, heh. Like, they'll say it was because of your recent posts but the timing is funny.
Like I keep saying, this weird subgame where Rhand townreads Silver and Silver just says "swat go away, I think you're scum because of it" is really weird if they're both mafia. Again, I think that they take a different line of play if they're both mafia here
Quote from dkings »
Hrm. I don't see any value in asking someone you don't have a firm read on to compare reads. Also, what did you hope to gain from that considering Tom's rapping this game makes it very difficult to get anything of concrete value out of his posts?
Quote from Silver »
@dkings: Partly I hoped that by giving him the topic in advance it would be easier to understand him, lol.
Partly I was trying to see where he was at, he has a lot of individual reads but I wanted to see where he was in the game relative to me to kind of... check myself, I guess. We've played a lot of games together and if we're both town we're probably on the right track.
Partly Vaimes and Gemma snubbed me when I asked them about the Axelrod wagon and I feel like I have a good handle on where my other town reads are at right now.
Mostly I was trying to create data points for later, though.
I might make a bigger post about tom specifically and the data points I have on him closer to EoD but I'd rather have more of them before blowing my meta on him (he *will* change how he's playing if he knows what I'm reading from him just to mess with me).
Worth noting that this dkings interaction does look a little softball-y, though.
I kind of want to read Silver's other wolf game when I get a chance just to see if he's actually capable of pulling this type of stuff
Quote from Silver »
Hi friends, let's talk about Rhand
Highlights from Rhand's iso (click to show)
His read on me feels realllly soft and he puts me at the top of his list under actual town reads which feels a lot like TMI, and there's a lot of like, glowing praise of and defense for Nacho that also feels like it might be TMI in town!Nacho worlds (which is currently where I'm living).
His tom read where he's like "tom's posts are super clear" and then tom says he's wrong about a lot of them and then he goes "well he's making his conclusions clear at least" (implying the actual reasoning doesn't matter that much) doesn't really feel like an honest re-evaluation of his tom read given new information.
Most of his other reads are like, fine, but his overall progression is a bit strange and seems more like he's trying to position himself a certain way than solve.
His transition from Axel to Vezok in that reads list kind of makes me want to say Axel could be a partner if he's a wolf, and Vezok is the designated mislunch here. I can't ~really rule out the Vezok bus though since the vote is almost literally "there have been a bunch of posts, why do you have no opinions" and that could be like, frustration at a partner too and Axel seems fine in a vacuum. Rhand's been holding that Vezok wolf read for a long time, though, kind of excessive for a bus. I'll burn that bridge if he flips wolf, I suppose.
Oh, so /this/ is the post where Silver pushes hard on Rhand
Just reading through this, for Silver and Rhand to have been buddies, Rhand would have had to play very weird and Silver had to plan to bus Rhand almost immediately after Day 1 started, AND keep pressing on Rhand when Rhand started to get more involved in the game and post more. Especially since there was a wagon on Mindreaver at around the same time as this post - it would have been insanely easy for scum Silver to be, like, "yeah Rhand's good, I want to vote Mindreaver because his posts have been bad" but instead Silver was doubling down on his suspicion of Rhand here
Maybe he doesn't want to be responsible for Mindreaver's lynch here but I still don't think you just come in guns blazing at a buddy as soon as RVS is over?
I guess he does re-evaluate on Rhand later on in the Day, but that's after the vezok mason reveal which is like... a weird time to do that? Like a better time to re-evaluate on Rhand was when he posted his reads list or when Mind cropped up as a wagon?
Now Silver proposes Mindreaver as a "we need to make this lynch eventually" lynch, and he's taking a fair amount of responsibility for the wagon:
Quote from Mindreaver »
I think we should not be putting a lot of time into Mindreaver. The case is made several times over, and I'm ~pretty sure we have the votes to lunch him if we want to.
Right now we're running him up while he isn't posting, he's probably going to keep not posting, and we're gonna grind the game to a halt while we wait for something to happen if we focus on him. It's been a week since he made that post saying he had more free time now and he was going to dunk on us lol. If he hasn't come back yet, he isn't coming.
vote: Mindreaver
I'm going to try to fit a reread in over the next few days (Happy early Thanksgiving) and see if anything new jumps out, but I won't be terribly disappointed if Mindreaver slips on a banana peel and 3 more votes fall on him or something over the holidays.
Quote from Silver »
I don't really think Rhand is a wolf anymore but that just makes me want to kill Mindreaver and move on
Maybe I'll just iso Axel and see where that takes me
Eh... eh. Like maybe this is an attempt to pivot off on Rhand, but my early concerns are still valid (like, this was a friggin weird time to do that AND the hypothetical Silver/Rhand scumteam had more ways to play off each other if they were mafia, rather than the approach they took)
Quote from Silvercrys »
@Gemma re: Killjoy I don't really have much to add to my earlier meta post. There's a bunch of stuff I don't think he does as a wolf, like bulldogging you over not explaining your Nacho read early, the Mindreaver wagon analysis I mentioned before, this post:
Spoiler (click to show)
He's just casting a very wide net and producing thoughts I don't think really occur to him as a wolf.
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I want a counterwagon to KCC that isn't Vaimes or Grape
Vote: dkingsland967
I'm... persuadable to lunching tom, it's not a slam dunk but he has a lot of wolf equity
would lunch jackrito on policy but not feel great about it
"I want a counterwagon to [someone I know is town] so I'm voting my scumbuddy."
Like there are worlds where Silver is really driving the bus-with-the-spiked-monster-truck-tires on both of his buddies Day 1 but razor just points to him being just town here.
Quote from Silver »
Lmao this game
I'm also a weak info role, there's good odds all three of us are town given my current knowledge
Lunch dk for great justice or something
Yeah there's like no way I think.
@Silvercrys - can you relink your most recently completed wolf game again? I know I asked earlier in the game but I'll actually take the time to skim/read through it.
I'll try to take a look at fulcrum's D1 tomorrow. Maybe I'm just being pocketed by Silver, maybe confirmation bias is rearing it's ugly head again, but I don't see much straying me from my previous solve of fulcrum/KJ.
People who think Silver is scum, please provide a comprehensive explanation of his play D1 and why that makes him mafia.
Proph, I need a repeat of What Mafia is This from you. I'm town. If you're town, you're being pocketed and I need you to find it. Look at my posts to Rhand and dk, look at how they treated me. Look at the assumptions Silver is making about mechanics, assuming there's no pool of scum abilities. I am not scum here.
I'll look at your posts tomorrow, but I'd like to reiterate with everyone else in stating that the best way to defend yourself right now is to solve the game
If you're town and think Silver/X is the team, talk to me about how his Day 1 makes sense from a scum Silver world. I just went over the posts in question, and I think Silver would have to be very good scum to throw us off like that. Think that in scum Silver worlds he could have taken multiple paths of least resistance and probably have an easier path to victory.
I used a variation of a Google sheet called the Machine to make the vote counts, you plug in the votes as they're made and you can see how many times player X voted for player Y and how the wagons shifted with each vote. I stopped tracking votes after D1 though because D2 was Kingmaker and I've been almost exclusively on mobile since then. I can show you after the game if you want.
Okay so daughter has been sick for three or four days now so I got completely pulled out of pretty much all non-work activities.
I can promise if I was scum, I'd have snatched a lynch with my partner by now. Fulcrum and Last had both voted a wagon, I would have ABSOLUTELY used daychat to synch up and hammer somebody. I do NOT want to drag this game out any more than it absolutely has to be.
Proph's case on Silver is pretty compelling for town's sake. It's easy enough for scum to hop onto a scum wagon if they realize it's not gonna stop, but it's another thing entirely for Silver to start grinding well before anyone has suspicion on two scum.
With Last in towncore, and me believing the Proph case on Silver, that leaves us at Fulcrum/KJ, yeah? Gonna try and do a quick dig.
Rumplestiltskin -Town Dealmaker Ability - Make a Deal Each Night, you may target another player. During the following day, that player will be able to exchange an ability they possess to gain a one shot of one of the two following abilities:Tracker, Bulletproof Vest. Or a two shot of a Messenger ability.
If that player chooses to exchange the ability, you will gain a one shot of their ability.
One of the three abilities is selected for exchange by a player, then that ability is removed from the abilities that may be offered. Players will not know who is offering them the deal. You may only take one Night action per Night.
In addition, all three abilities have drawbacks when used.
Messenger - Target player may send a message to another player during night however, the mafia will always get a copy of this message and will be aware that this is a drawback of another players ability.
Tracker - The player will be unable to take a night action during the following Night.
Bulletproof vest - After the Bulletproof vest is used any kill that targets the player will be a strongman kill.
While you have knowledge of these drawbacks, communicating them directly in thread will have consequences. If you mention those drawbacks in the thread, you will be vanillaized and all abilities you have given will be removed from the game.
So we know Messenger ability was in the game. Hhhh. I don't think timing works out because it was night one.
fulcrum "should" have gotten the message ability on D4, I think? N1 Vaimes visited Vezok, N2 he visited fulcrum and she took the track, N3 he visited killjoy and he took the vest, N4 he tried to visit Last and got swapped to fulcrum, who should have gotten the message as it was the only remaining item
Proph's post didn't include links to the actual post. I think it's a deliberate attempt to dissuade everyone from going back and looking because he cropped out important context.
Killjoy seems okay. I like Gemma and Vaimes, mostly tonally though Vaimes is doing good work too.
Last night I kind of felt like Nacho realized he wasn't getting anywhere and tried to backpedal... partly because I don't really feel like I tried to sort him, myself, so his town lean on me gave me a bit of whiplash. I guess it coulda been a bad push on purpose to force interactions which is what I think he's representing now but like. I'm gonna let that read stew some more, I think.
Preview edit: I like Sloth's last few posts, as well.
Mmm.
vote: Rhand
Think Silver did this when most of the early game *****posting was over
Unless something radical changed in Silver's scum playstyle (I mean, I've never played with him as scum) don't thiiiink he goes "yeah here's my post evaluating the early game, vote my buddy". If Silver is scum it's just way safer for him to push a townie to kick things off right? Gonna read more but that's my gut instinct to this post
Quote from Silver »
There isn't a connection between the post and the vote. I'm voting Rhand because he's pinging me but I can't really explain why, his posts just feel weird.
Feels like scum Silver would probably embellish this a little more to get the town cred rather than explain it like this?
I think you're really overstating how clearing this should be for Silver. It was a blank vote to start the game off with no explanation other than pings behind it. It looks good for Silver later when Rhand flips, but doesn't convince anyone that Rhand's scum or put him in danger. It's easy distancing.
Rhand's post didn't really move the needle for me, no. It's a good post but it doesn't really resolve the weirdness, I'll have to iso him later toDay and try to explain what it is... but I think it's more natural for him to try to win me over than OMGUS me especially after Eurovision lol, and the rest of the reads are like... reasonable but nothing that I really think he wouldn't/couldn't make as a wolf.
This really isn't a read you make to a scumbuddy right? Especially the whole "win me over" part.
I know that if I was scum and pressuring a buddy early like scum!Silver is ostensibly doing in this situation, once your scumbuddy starts getting themselves in the game and makes a large post or something I'd probably just back off on them and focus on advancing the mafia win condition. Him continuing to needle Rhand over this doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Silver is scum unless Silver wanted to distance really early on in the game
I would agree with you on the "win me over part" if this was something Silver was posting of his own volition but it was prompted. Here's the full context:
Dk feels okay in the fulcrum back-and-forth. Both of them do, really, but I'm not sure how to sort fulcrum yet.
What in particular did DK say that you liked? Did Rhand's #300 affect your read on him at all?
Dk's Vezok read is something I believe he believes and his response to fulcrum questioning him feels very open and not manipulative. It's not really a town read, just feels not wolfy.
Rhand's post didn't really move the needle for me, no. It's a good post but it doesn't really resolve the weirdness, I'll have to iso him later toDay and try to explain what it is... but I think it's more natural for him to try to win me over than OMGUS me especially after Eurovision lol, and the rest of the reads are like... reasonable but nothing that I really think he wouldn't/couldn't make as a wolf.
Nacho /asked/ Silver if his read on Rhand was changing and Silver didn't feel comfortable enough to back off of Rhand because me, Axel and Nacho were already starting to push Rhand. Also, Silver did try to start pivoting off Rhand and onto an easy mislynch in mindreaver before this:
Silver: the other guy that wants to be the big dick :). You I was leaning town on until you went and voted rhand, now I'm just nullish on you. What was up with that? Your reasoning, iirc, was that he just feels off? Suspect my friend, especially because:
Rhand: we mindmelded quite a bit on vez's entrance. I like that he stood up for Nacho, because the push there was justified but misguided. So solid townread at the moment, which is frickin bizzare because we're usually trying to kill each other.
This is like, phrased as a question but it reads like a statement so I'm not sure if you don't understand what I said about Rhand or not~ really the whole thing reads kind of weirdly to me.
Think it's the part where you townread Rhand for defending Nacho because you thought Nacho's push was "justified but misguided" and I'm having trouble squaring that perception of Nacho's push and these two reads. Could you rephrase?
I think you should start spelling her name with one "l". Fu-l-crum. Fulcrum.
I thought she was being a tiny bit two-faced, first in her interaction with Nacho by eating away at his Silver townread, then in her assessment of Nacho as "having reads in his mind already", which I think is a believable reaction to some of his earliest posts but not so much to his later posts, which I think should have changed her take on him. What are your thoughts?
That's roughly what *I* was going to say, it felt like fulcrum was leading Nacho into a wolf read on me... but I'm not actually as sure now, seems like she's actually suspicious of Nacho and trying to get into his head maybe? Dk feels okay in the fulcrum back-and-forth. Both of them do, really, but I'm not sure how to sort fulcrum yet.
Last is focusing on stuff Vaimes does in a very like, meta sense and not even trying to apply it to what Vaimes is doing this game it feels like. A lot of talking about what Vaimes always does but no like... substance. This isn't a wolf read, exactly, I don't know what it is really.
Nacho's big posts feel okay too, I'll try to circle back to them when I have time to.
Notice that he went after Mindreaver for lightly townreading Rhand, setting him up for a mislynch even if Rhand flipped first. Obvious scumplay is obvious.
Rhand but not for any reason you'd probably find compelling, his posts feel weird and he has a strong town read on me that kind of feels like TMI to me.
Silver continuing to push on Rhand for this reason is again weird if he's scum; feels like they'd both just mutually townread each other or would get into some sort of sparring match/fake fight if they're both mafia together, right?
You cut off half the ******* post to just include the part that looks good for Silver, what the ****.
Rhand but not for any reason you'd probably find compelling, his posts feel weird and he has a strong town read on me that kind of feels like TMI to me.
Vezok has been the designated counter-wagon to the basically identical Axel and dk wagons, I guess, and I've been thinking about switching to Mindreaver but I want to see his catch up first.
Silver was literally setting up the mindreaver push away from Rhand /in this post./ And his whole angle for approaching this is too clear himself. His focus is on himself, saying how Rhand must be tmiing him as town, so that if anyone latches onto the reasoning enough to kill Rhand they'll /have/ conclude Silver is town off of it, because the reasoning is based on Rhand knowing Silver is town. It's something then set up in their chat, to make it looks like Rhnad has a bit of tmi on Silver so they can never be together. And if anyone suspects Silver, they then wouldn't have wanted to go after Rhand, because they made it look like Silver flipping scum clears Rhand. It was all set up to clear one of them when the other flipped, without even making that flip much more likely.
@Rhand: Nothing to do with your meta, I don't think, it's like... I wolf read tom hard for what seemed like a bad wolf read on me in Eurovision so it seems more natural for wolves who were also in that game to see that and fake a town read instead of "poking the bear", as it were.
Unless you meant you don't wall as a wolf which would be... eh? Maybe? I think you posted a readslist like your early one here in Eurovision though... not going to verify that on mobile but I'll probably check later when I get to a PC.
Anyway there's a general lack of paranoia about me which is... not unwelcome, exactly, but it makes *me* a bit paranoid and your early town read sticks out.
It is kind of odd that I expressed interest in switching wagons and some people voted you, though, heh. Like, they'll say it was because of your recent posts but the timing is funny.
Like I keep saying, this weird subgame where Rhand townreads Silver and Silver just says "swat go away, I think you're scum because of it" is really weird if they're both mafia. Again, I think that they take a different line of play if they're both mafia here
That's not what they're doing, though. Rhand is townreading Silver, and Silver is doing a big song and dance about how he can never be scum with Rhand, but not actually pushing Rhand about it. Silver was at the head of a wagon on Rhand at this point, but was doing nothing to actually bury him, that was all me and Nacho. But he gets the credit and the unaligned read, while you push me for being on there later, as if it wasn't my logic that was one of the main threats to Rhand in the first place. If other people hadn't attacked Rhand for independent reasons, Silver's "pressure" would have done nothing but make them look unaligned.
Hrm. I don't see any value in asking someone you don't have a firm read on to compare reads. Also, what did you hope to gain from that considering Tom's rapping this game makes it very difficult to get anything of concrete value out of his posts?
Quote from Silver »
@dkings: Partly I hoped that by giving him the topic in advance it would be easier to understand him, lol.
Partly I was trying to see where he was at, he has a lot of individual reads but I wanted to see where he was in the game relative to me to kind of... check myself, I guess. We've played a lot of games together and if we're both town we're probably on the right track.
Partly Vaimes and Gemma snubbed me when I asked them about the Axelrod wagon and I feel like I have a good handle on where my other town reads are at right now.
Mostly I was trying to create data points for later, though.
I might make a bigger post about tom specifically and the data points I have on him closer to EoD but I'd rather have more of them before blowing my meta on him (he *will* change how he's playing if he knows what I'm reading from him just to mess with me).
Worth noting that this dkings interaction does look a little softball-y, though.
I kind of want to read Silver's other wolf game when I get a chance just to see if he's actually capable of pulling this type of stuff
Highlights from Rhand's iso (click to show)
His read on me feels realllly soft and he puts me at the top of his list under actual town reads which feels a lot like TMI, and there's a lot of like, glowing praise of and defense for Nacho that also feels like it might be TMI in town!Nacho worlds (which is currently where I'm living).
His tom read where he's like "tom's posts are super clear" and then tom says he's wrong about a lot of them and then he goes "well he's making his conclusions clear at least" (implying the actual reasoning doesn't matter that much) doesn't really feel like an honest re-evaluation of his tom read given new information.
Most of his other reads are like, fine, but his overall progression is a bit strange and seems more like he's trying to position himself a certain way than solve.
His transition from Axel to Vezok in that reads list kind of makes me want to say Axel could be a partner if he's a wolf, and Vezok is the designated mislunch here. I can't ~really rule out the Vezok bus though since the vote is almost literally "there have been a bunch of posts, why do you have no opinions" and that could be like, frustration at a partner too and Axel seems fine in a vacuum. Rhand's been holding that Vezok wolf read for a long time, though, kind of excessive for a bus. I'll burn that bridge if he flips wolf, I suppose.
Oh, so /this/ is the post where Silver pushes hard on Rhand
Just reading through this, for Silver and Rhand to have been buddies, Rhand would have had to play very weird and Silver had to plan to bus Rhand almost immediately after Day 1 started, AND keep pressing on Rhand when Rhand started to get more involved in the game and post more. Especially since there was a wagon on Mindreaver at around the same time as this post - it would have been insanely easy for scum Silver to be, like, "yeah Rhand's good, I want to vote Mindreaver because his posts have been bad" but instead Silver was doubling down on his suspicion of Rhand here
Maybe he doesn't want to be responsible for Mindreaver's lynch here but I still don't think you just come in guns blazing at a buddy as soon as RVS is over?
I guess he does re-evaluate on Rhand later on in the Day, but that's after the vezok mason reveal which is like... a weird time to do that? Like a better time to re-evaluate on Rhand was when he posted his reads list or when Mind cropped up as a wagon?
Alright, so let's actually look at what he did in this post.
1.He repeated the Tmi stuff, to clear himself and extended it to Nacho, which makes it sound more legit and doesn't hurt scum when everyone was townreading Nacho by then anyway.
2. He restated one of my points against Rhand without adding anything:
Before I go, if you look at the way Rhand treated the first scumreads on Nacho and his read of tom, there's a pattern of him giving too /much/ credit to other people's thought process, and assuming it's like his own. It feels weird and spewy.
3.Called Rhand's reads "fine" but progression weird, which was, again, just restating what I said but somehow making it a bit better for Rhand.
4. He linked two town in Axel and Vezok to Rhand as well, setting up mislynchs for whenever Rhand flips.
How exactly is this "guns blazing" Proph? Especially when there were already multiple people voting Rhand and both Gemma and I had cased him like a few posts above this.
Now Silver proposes Mindreaver as a "we need to make this lynch eventually" lynch, and he's taking a fair amount of responsibility for the wagon:
Quote from Mindreaver »
I think we should not be putting a lot of time into Mindreaver. The case is made several times over, and I'm ~pretty sure we have the votes to lunch him if we want to.
Right now we're running him up while he isn't posting, he's probably going to keep not posting, and we're gonna grind the game to a halt while we wait for something to happen if we focus on him. It's been a week since he made that post saying he had more free time now and he was going to dunk on us lol. If he hasn't come back yet, he isn't coming.
vote: Mindreaver
I'm going to try to fit a reread in over the next few days (Happy early Thanksgiving) and see if anything new jumps out, but I won't be terribly disappointed if Mindreaver slips on a banana peel and 3 more votes fall on him or something over the holidays.
I ******* love how you spin this as Silver "taking responsibility" for the Mind lynch, like it's not scummy for him to shove away from Rhand and onto the lynch he was angling for since the early game just because he posted reasoning for it. Silver literally said "the case is made several times over" instead of making the case for himself. He took no responsibility, he was just telling people to lynch the guy who wasn't here.
I don't really think Rhand is a wolf anymore but that just makes me want to kill Mindreaver and move on
Maybe I'll just iso Axel and see where that takes me
Eh... eh. Like maybe this is an attempt to pivot off on Rhand, but my early concerns are still valid (like, this was a friggin weird time to do that AND the hypothetical Silver/Rhand scumteam had more ways to play off each other if they were mafia, rather than the approach they took)
Just, disagree, Silver is setting up a mislynch after the Mindreaver mislynch, and backing off now that the thread as a whole has let go of Rhand and he feels like they look unaligned up. How else, exactly, should they have played this as mafia? Because Rhand had very little real lynch pressure from Silver, and Silver got to emphasize how they're not together over and over again? How is that not an ideal scenario for a scumteam that knows Rhand often dies early?
@Gemma re: Killjoy I don't really have much to add to my earlier meta post. There's a bunch of stuff I don't think he does as a wolf, like bulldogging you over not explaining your Nacho read early, the Mindreaver wagon analysis I mentioned before, this post:
Spoiler (click to show)
He's just casting a very wide net and producing thoughts I don't think really occur to him as a wolf.
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I want a counterwagon to KCC that isn't Vaimes or Grape
Vote: dkingsland967
I'm... persuadable to lunching tom, it's not a slam dunk but he has a lot of wolf equity
would lunch jackrito on policy but not feel great about it
"I want a counterwagon to [someone I know is town] so I'm voting my scumbuddy."
Like there are worlds where Silver is really driving the bus-with-the-spiked-monster-truck-tires on both of his buddies Day 1 but razor just points to him being just town here.
Yeah, I don't have a great argument with this one. I think, since Dk had his bodyguard crumbs out before this, he was probably planning on claiming and using the summer activation part of his role to make us want to want until the next season, so he may have oked a push with Silver. I'll note that Silver left the door open on killing tom and didn't defend Vaimes or Grape, and might have been worried at that point about 1.Vaimes clearing himself and 2.Grape being a mason, but this was a really good bus time and I respect it.
I'm also a weak info role, there's good odds all three of us are town given my current knowledge
Lunch dk for great justice or something
Yeah there's like no way I think.
Yeah, I don't know. Silver was the reason I backed off of Axel initially. I think he must have overestimated how influential his opinion would be to me? None of what he posted were actually reasons to go after dk, and he did drop this info at a good time for himself, but bluh. I suppose he must have been in this weird spot, watching town counterclaim town and trying to kill each other, and loling at it but not wanting to compromise his great position in the game.
People who think Silver is scum, please provide a comprehensive explanation of his play D1 and why that makes him mafia.
Ask, and ye shall receive, witch.
tl:dr Proph omitted important context. Y'all need to actually read what happened for yourselves, stop letting scum craft the only narrative of the game.
as long as nobody puts someone past 2, and even then that requires me or proph to be a wolf
or a Silver/Asta world
I am not a wolf so you don't have to worry about that world, so the proph/me world isnt a thing
so like, thats not a problem
we already lose to an asta/proph world if they are ever on at the same time, but I doubt that
It seriously could be proph. I haven't raed Last's ISO because it's so damn big. I plan to take a deep look at fulcrum on Tuesday after work.
Literally not possible, Asta and I would have hammered silver earlier.
nvm
In scum!proph world, the roleblock didn't happen. He probably just never used an ability that night.
In a scum fulcrum world, Maybe fulcrum has a lightning rod to Vaimes so that she could trade for fulcrum's nonmafia ability? It makes more sense I think than busdriving last with anyone. Last shouldn't really be a high priority target in most worlds.
In scum Last world, the bus drive (which would exist in this world probably) might be to push investigatives away from him. MAybe he has a self-bus drive or some *****. Although no one was really suspecting him at that point? Coexists with scum!fulcrum world.
To give Vaimes your investigative ability. I think you did that before I got the vest, so perhaps you planned to kill me?
That's not the best theory. Just brainstorming atm.
He targetted me because I asked. Then, he targetted you, because I cleared you and I approved it, and got an ability. Then, he targetted last but it hit me instead. If I wanted him to target me, I just would have asked again.
Yeah that would make no sense then.
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Curse PremiumStill want to hear Asta's thoughts on the KJ/fulcrum team as well as what his thoughts are on Silver, all he did over the weekend was confirm his double vote.
Fulcrum has pretty solid reasoning as to why she is not mafia; her making the swap from me onto dk when dk was lynched was the thing that made me re-evaluate on her in the first place. Probably gonna go through Silver's early game posts tomorrow and try to weigh Silver's early game behavior vs fulcrum's end game behavior and see which one is more condemning for either one.
Just like, the early game is /super/ weird if Silver is scum. Silver just decides to bus Rhand out of the gates early then switches to Mindreaver then dkingsland. Think he still pressures Rhand D2 when vezok decided Nacho needed to get the axe then he lead the charge for a Rhand lynch Day 3.
I mean, maybe, but that would require scum Asta to keep his double vote in lylo and for Silver and Asta to be bussing dkings Day 1 when KCC was /right there/. Your eye for something like that is uncanny though.
Honestly it's interesting that in the EoD1 vote count Asta is voting along with dkings, whom Asta was scumreading for most of Day 1. Again this is kind of a note for me to look at context.
This friggin temper tantrum argument is kind of making me think that Last and KJ are town/town lol. What the heck does that leave the scum team as? Silver/fulcrum pulling the Taredas/Tarhalindur level squeeze gambit on us? Silver/Asta somehow just trying to distance on Day 1?
If Silver is a wolf, he's played a goddamn excellent game with either of his two partners, Asta or fulcrum. If it's fulcrum then honestly that team deserves a gold medal for outplaying us nearly the entire game. If it's Asta, then Asta still has his double vote even though it's lylo and that hypothetical team revved up the bussing and distancing as soon as the game began.
Both outcomes are fairly unlikely according to the razor, which still has me set on fulcrum/KJ. Especially since Silver is going up to bat and defending me - if he's scum here there's fairly little reason to do that other than to pocket me. IMO he has a much easier way out of this lylo by keeping me on the table as an option
Killjoy: Why are you asking specifically Silver about my behavior? Why aren't, you know, just asking ME and grilling ME about my actions? I feel like we haven't talked a whole lot this entire game so it feels weird to me that you're grilling Silver about me as opposed to, y'know, just asking me
This post is big mood
Yeahhh this is barring reread but if Silver is scum I'm willing to just tip my hat to him and say ggs, he's played a hell of a wolf game if he's a wolf here. If he and Asta just distanced heavily early game and he's making posts of this caliber late game then yeah you got it
No, orbs don't give people the ability to take night actions, they just come as an added modifier if they already have a night action.
Dude, what are you talking? Early game I was the one who was questioning why dkings wasn't interacting with his scumreads, and when Asta "confirmed" that dkings was a bodyguard I backed off because I thought dkings mechanically confirmed himself
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Curse PremiumLast is always town here
Asta.. I'm still like, a little paranoid because he has just been generally low-content all game and he has a double vote when there are masons in the game, but he's only ever scum with Silver and I think Silver is town, soo
I'm gonna spend Tomorrow just focusing on solving Silver because he's basically the key to the entire game right here, but gun to head right now I think he's just town. As I keep saying the gamestate becomes really weird if he/Asta are mafia and his posts Today I have trouble believing can come from scum!him. Again, as he keeps saying - there's like no reason for him to pocket me if he's mafia here, he has a way easier time if it's Silver/Asta going after me or potentially Last and keeping his options open. If fulcrum/him are a team then GGs.
Which leaves KJ and fulcrum. Fulcrum.. like a lot of her micro posts are townie, and I don't understand why she has the cop ability if she's mafia, but when you look at the bigger picture the only way anything makes sense is if she/KJ are a team and they just mechanically trapped themselves. And they're both like, angling at Silver trying to get either one of me or Asta to vote Silver so they can quickhammer. And like KJ is going after me now because he has no options I feel. If I had to describe a player in this game who is actively working to expand the PoE then KJ would be it.
It just feels weird to me because god, KJ was my top town read for most of the game. His posts early were stellar and even now I'm still doubting a little that he could be scum (b.c of his argument with Last). This team just makes the /most sense/, though. Nothing else does.
I'll reread tomorrow to double check my assumptions but I've replayed and thought about this game over and over in my head and I really do think a fulcrum/KJ solve just wins us the game.
Or me/x w/ maybe proph
I swear u and silver are just going back fourth trying to one up each other
Day Seven ends on February 14th at 11:59 AM PST.
The Current Season is Summer.
With 6 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.
I'd be happy to listen to alternative theories to the "Killjoy copied KCC (and maybe Keldeo)" theory as long as they don't involve things that Probably Aren't True like a whole extra role's worth of factional abilities
I actually have one of those already but it involves there only being one wolf currently alive so I'm not super concerned with it right now
(It's Asta because then they would have a double vote and a janitored day kill plus a back up, so maybe they only had three bodies to begin with)
I should be here for it but it's funny
Checking interactions with DK, and checking DK's interactions with him.
But yes it doesn't seem super likely, 12/4 is a pretty standard alignment distribution
I think I might be crazy. That sure is a lot of pushing on dk. Also Rhand.
Ok so Proph probably isn't scum.
It's unlikely to be Proph.
it's probably not fulcrum/silver because votes.
Hey how did you make these votecounts?
Tell me what you think of his progression on Rhand?
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Curse PremiumGonna look at context now
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Curse PremiumThink Silver did this when most of the early game *****posting was over
Unless something radical changed in Silver's scum playstyle (I mean, I've never played with him as scum) don't thiiiink he goes "yeah here's my post evaluating the early game, vote my buddy". If Silver is scum it's just way safer for him to push a townie to kick things off right? Gonna read more but that's my gut instinct to this post
Feels like scum Silver would probably embellish this a little more to get the town cred rather than explain it like this?
He continues to explain his scumread of Asta here
This really isn't a read you make to a scumbuddy right? Especially the whole "win me over" part.
I know that if I was scum and pressuring a buddy early like scum!Silver is ostensibly doing in this situation, once your scumbuddy starts getting themselves in the game and makes a large post or something I'd probably just back off on them and focus on advancing the mafia win condition. Him continuing to needle Rhand over this doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Silver is scum unless Silver wanted to distance really early on in the game
Silver continuing to push on Rhand for this reason is again weird if he's scum; feels like they'd both just mutually townread each other or would get into some sort of sparring match/fake fight if they're both mafia together, right?
Like I keep saying, this weird subgame where Rhand townreads Silver and Silver just says "swat go away, I think you're scum because of it" is really weird if they're both mafia. Again, I think that they take a different line of play if they're both mafia here
Worth noting that this dkings interaction does look a little softball-y, though.
I kind of want to read Silver's other wolf game when I get a chance just to see if he's actually capable of pulling this type of stuff
Oh, so /this/ is the post where Silver pushes hard on Rhand
Just reading through this, for Silver and Rhand to have been buddies, Rhand would have had to play very weird and Silver had to plan to bus Rhand almost immediately after Day 1 started, AND keep pressing on Rhand when Rhand started to get more involved in the game and post more. Especially since there was a wagon on Mindreaver at around the same time as this post - it would have been insanely easy for scum Silver to be, like, "yeah Rhand's good, I want to vote Mindreaver because his posts have been bad" but instead Silver was doubling down on his suspicion of Rhand here
Maybe he doesn't want to be responsible for Mindreaver's lynch here but I still don't think you just come in guns blazing at a buddy as soon as RVS is over?
I guess he does re-evaluate on Rhand later on in the Day, but that's after the vezok mason reveal which is like... a weird time to do that? Like a better time to re-evaluate on Rhand was when he posted his reads list or when Mind cropped up as a wagon?
Now Silver proposes Mindreaver as a "we need to make this lynch eventually" lynch, and he's taking a fair amount of responsibility for the wagon:
Eh... eh. Like maybe this is an attempt to pivot off on Rhand, but my early concerns are still valid (like, this was a friggin weird time to do that AND the hypothetical Silver/Rhand scumteam had more ways to play off each other if they were mafia, rather than the approach they took)
"I want a counterwagon to [someone I know is town] so I'm voting my scumbuddy."
Like there are worlds where Silver is really driving the bus-with-the-spiked-monster-truck-tires on both of his buddies Day 1 but razor just points to him being just town here.
Yeah there's like no way I think.
@Silvercrys - can you relink your most recently completed wolf game again? I know I asked earlier in the game but I'll actually take the time to skim/read through it.
I'll try to take a look at fulcrum's D1 tomorrow. Maybe I'm just being pocketed by Silver, maybe confirmation bias is rearing it's ugly head again, but I don't see much straying me from my previous solve of fulcrum/KJ.
People who think Silver is scum, please provide a comprehensive explanation of his play D1 and why that makes him mafia.
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Curse PremiumIf you're town and think Silver/X is the team, talk to me about how his Day 1 makes sense from a scum Silver world. I just went over the posts in question, and I think Silver would have to be very good scum to throw us off like that. Think that in scum Silver worlds he could have taken multiple paths of least resistance and probably have an easier path to victory.
I used a variation of a Google sheet called the Machine to make the vote counts, you plug in the votes as they're made and you can see how many times player X voted for player Y and how the wagons shifted with each vote. I stopped tracking votes after D1 though because D2 was Kingmaker and I've been almost exclusively on mobile since then. I can show you after the game if you want.
@Proph:
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/801746-ghostbusters-mafia-game-over-ghostbusted
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/799373-unreliable-cops-day-3-walking-the-beat
I replaced into both of these but they're my only wolf games; Ghostbusters is somewhat more recent but I actually played most of D1 in Unreliable Cops
I can promise if I was scum, I'd have snatched a lynch with my partner by now. Fulcrum and Last had both voted a wagon, I would have ABSOLUTELY used daychat to synch up and hammer somebody. I do NOT want to drag this game out any more than it absolutely has to be.
Proph's case on Silver is pretty compelling for town's sake. It's easy enough for scum to hop onto a scum wagon if they realize it's not gonna stop, but it's another thing entirely for Silver to start grinding well before anyone has suspicion on two scum.
With Last in towncore, and me believing the Proph case on Silver, that leaves us at Fulcrum/KJ, yeah? Gonna try and do a quick dig.
So we know Messenger ability was in the game. Hhhh. I don't think timing works out because it was night one.
I think you're really overstating how clearing this should be for Silver. It was a blank vote to start the game off with no explanation other than pings behind it. It looks good for Silver later when Rhand flips, but doesn't convince anyone that Rhand's scum or put him in danger. It's easy distancing.
I would agree with you on the "win me over part" if this was something Silver was posting of his own volition but it was prompted. Here's the full context:
Nacho /asked/ Silver if his read on Rhand was changing and Silver didn't feel comfortable enough to back off of Rhand because me, Axel and Nacho were already starting to push Rhand. Also, Silver did try to start pivoting off Rhand and onto an easy mislynch in mindreaver before this:
Notice that he went after Mindreaver for lightly townreading Rhand, setting him up for a mislynch even if Rhand flipped first. Obvious scumplay is obvious.
You cut off half the ******* post to just include the part that looks good for Silver, what the ****.
Silver was literally setting up the mindreaver push away from Rhand /in this post./ And his whole angle for approaching this is too clear himself. His focus is on himself, saying how Rhand must be tmiing him as town, so that if anyone latches onto the reasoning enough to kill Rhand they'll /have/ conclude Silver is town off of it, because the reasoning is based on Rhand knowing Silver is town. It's something then set up in their chat, to make it looks like Rhnad has a bit of tmi on Silver so they can never be together. And if anyone suspects Silver, they then wouldn't have wanted to go after Rhand, because they made it look like Silver flipping scum clears Rhand. It was all set up to clear one of them when the other flipped, without even making that flip much more likely.
That's not what they're doing, though. Rhand is townreading Silver, and Silver is doing a big song and dance about how he can never be scum with Rhand, but not actually pushing Rhand about it. Silver was at the head of a wagon on Rhand at this point, but was doing nothing to actually bury him, that was all me and Nacho. But he gets the credit and the unaligned read, while you push me for being on there later, as if it wasn't my logic that was one of the main threats to Rhand in the first place. If other people hadn't attacked Rhand for independent reasons, Silver's "pressure" would have done nothing but make them look unaligned.
Agree with that.
Alright, so let's actually look at what he did in this post.
1.He repeated the Tmi stuff, to clear himself and extended it to Nacho, which makes it sound more legit and doesn't hurt scum when everyone was townreading Nacho by then anyway.
2. He restated one of my points against Rhand without adding anything:
3.Called Rhand's reads "fine" but progression weird, which was, again, just restating what I said but somehow making it a bit better for Rhand.
4. He linked two town in Axel and Vezok to Rhand as well, setting up mislynchs for whenever Rhand flips.
How exactly is this "guns blazing" Proph? Especially when there were already multiple people voting Rhand and both Gemma and I had cased him like a few posts above this.
I ******* love how you spin this as Silver "taking responsibility" for the Mind lynch, like it's not scummy for him to shove away from Rhand and onto the lynch he was angling for since the early game just because he posted reasoning for it. Silver literally said "the case is made several times over" instead of making the case for himself. He took no responsibility, he was just telling people to lynch the guy who wasn't here.
Just, disagree, Silver is setting up a mislynch after the Mindreaver mislynch, and backing off now that the thread as a whole has let go of Rhand and he feels like they look unaligned up. How else, exactly, should they have played this as mafia? Because Rhand had very little real lynch pressure from Silver, and Silver got to emphasize how they're not together over and over again? How is that not an ideal scenario for a scumteam that knows Rhand often dies early?
Yeah, I don't have a great argument with this one. I think, since Dk had his bodyguard crumbs out before this, he was probably planning on claiming and using the summer activation part of his role to make us want to want until the next season, so he may have oked a push with Silver. I'll note that Silver left the door open on killing tom and didn't defend Vaimes or Grape, and might have been worried at that point about 1.Vaimes clearing himself and 2.Grape being a mason, but this was a really good bus time and I respect it.
Yeah, I don't know. Silver was the reason I backed off of Axel initially. I think he must have overestimated how influential his opinion would be to me? None of what he posted were actually reasons to go after dk, and he did drop this info at a good time for himself, but bluh. I suppose he must have been in this weird spot, watching town counterclaim town and trying to kill each other, and loling at it but not wanting to compromise his great position in the game.
Ask, and ye shall receive, witch.
tl:dr Proph omitted important context. Y'all need to actually read what happened for yourselves, stop letting scum craft the only narrative of the game.
thoughts on Fulcrum's progression on Rhand
as well as Killjoy's?
Last, why do you think you're here instead of Vaimes?