vezokpiraka (mason)
dkingsland967 (mod-confirmed to be bodyguard)
fulcrum (Vaimes has her cop ability)
Killjoy (fulcrum has confirmed him as town)
So, right off I'm wondering how is a bodyguard "confirmed town?" You say "well, that's not a useful ability for scum to have." And I say, "yes, and...?" I feel like I've seen a "scum bodyguard" as a role before, essentially designed for the purpose of anti-setup gaming - and that's even aside from the issue of whether or not it's real (It seems like it's only not real if he's specifically scum with Asta, or the scum have an ability like "send a message through the mod to a player" and they're trying to fake it? Not sure how possible that last one actually is, it's just weird that Asta would get a confirmation message at all that dking would not know about. I suppose if dking was faking it though, he would have included that his target gets told about his protect in the claim for more authenticity, so maybe this train of thought is not productive.)
Is this paranoia? Maybe? But it's healthy paranoia, I say!
Also, for much the same reasons, the fact fulcrum had an ability to detect a "non-mafia" player who takes an action does not "clear" her. It's been said, but that ability can go on scum. Now, I find the way that fulcrum has handled it to be Towny, and I am currently not interested in her, but she is not actually "mechanically clear" as you are suggesting.
The other two are though, baring a fulcrum/Killjoy gambit which seems unlikely.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Okay, so despite Astas double vote being active in Spring and Summer, he never actually used it during the first Spring. It wasn't used until right after Gemma died.
Which, okay, maybe he just wanted to hold the claim, but that's not a role that really makes sense for, especially only being on sometimes. And, there wasn't any reason to suddenly reveal it at that exact moment, unless... he just got it?
Which, idk if it'd make sense with the rolesteal daykill idea, we probably would have noticed Gemma double voting, and it wouldn't have made any more sense for her to hold it. Unless maybe she had it in a different season and that part was changed, Rhands role could do that too
The result is "Keldeo has not targeted Gemma this game" or something to that effect. It's pretty definitive (other than the possibility of the kill not being targeted or explicitly untraceable by my ability)
Vaimes can give me the message toNight and I can trade him that ability so he can verify it (which might just get him shot even faster but that's not an awful course of events if they shoot him toNight over Vezok)
I still think this is an awful idea. I already trust that this is a real ability, I don't think confirming it's existence accomplishes much of anything anyway. And, can we maybe agree on or at least discuss no one taking that 3rd message ability from vaimes?
Like I see you thinking I’m a neutral, but I wonder what kind of scenarios you’re picturing. It makes no sense that the slots with my items all die, like an arsonist, because I only have three. I could leave the game after trading the items, which isn’t a bad thing. I could ensure people with my items survive, but that would be impossible if one of them were mafia.
There aren’t a lot of options here, now that I think of it, so I’m curious what makes you feel strong enough about it to fear-monger me.
I’m not a neutral, this is just amusing for me. And the messenger ability sucks, so I’m not really dying to get rid of it.
All right. I tried to put some of this in a spoiler for ease of reading, but the /spoiler function does not seem to be working for me :/ So you just get the wall. You can fill in any already known info that I missed. My own info that is unclaimed seems minimal, but it is confirming that I have the ability that I claimed, because as far as I am aware, I have a name that has not been claimed, so I could claim the rest. It seems there could still be a tiny bit of utility in not claiming it all, so that's the only issue there.
Silver: Aeolus, Town Investigator
Spring: None
Summer: Winds of Portence (Target player, learn the name of an ability that can only be used Next season (i.e. Fall?)
N1: Targeted Proph and learned the name of his “Spring” ability (because that was going to be the “next” season, technically?)
Fall: Winds of Knowledge (Target living and dead player, learn if the living ever targeted the dead)
N3: Target Gemma and Keldeo. Keldeo has not targeted Gemma this game
Winter: Winds of Past (Target player, learn if they were targeted on a past night (that you choose? Not just all nights)
Lastwhisper: Unclaimed name?
Has six “Dreams.” Chooses one each Night (including pregame?) Does not know what they do. Names appear in the Morning Scene.
Past
Tranquility – N0 (we had no kill on N1?)
Revenge
Friendship – N3
Leadership – N1 (we had to elect someone to decide the lynch the next day?)
Prophecy – N2 (we needed a super-majority to lynch the next day?)
KCC: Pan (?)
Spring: Role-Block
N2: RB Prpoh.
Summer: 2-shot bus drive (that can use with other abilities? What other abilities?)
N1: Target Axelrod and Nacho
Fall: Delay
N3: Unclaimed?
Winter: Target a player. The player who next targets that player will be delayed for their next action.
Vezokpiraka: (Thisbe?) Fated Mason
Mason with Grapefruit – confirmed
Fulcrum: ?
Spring: Dreams of Future (passive. Learn the name of a Non-mafia who took an action)
-Learned Killjoy
-N2 - Targeted by Vaimes. Traded away this Spring ability for a Tracker ability.
Summer: none
Fall: Dream of Certainty (passive. Learn the names of two players with abilities restricted to those seasons)
-Learned Proph and Silver
-N3 - Tracked Keldeo. Keldeo did not target anyone this Night.
Winter: Dream of Naming (passive. Learn the name of a random Winter ability)
Killjoy: ?
Unclaimed
Took an action N2 (Spring)
N3 – Traded (something) with Vaimes for BP vest.
Keldeo: Mab, Town Winter Queen
Spring: None
Summer (Preparation for Winter – Target during the day. Target will be RB the following night)
D1: Target fulcrum
D2: Target DKing
Fall: None
Winter (Queen of Winter – RB. If successfully prevent a non-factional ability, lose this and gain a copy of that ability)
Prophylaxis: Prospero, Town Enchanter
Spring – Give a Green Orb (If a player with a Green Orb targets a player with a Green or Orange Orb they are RBed)
N2 – Targeted dkings with a Green Orb. Role-blocked (by KCC)
Summer – Give a Yellow Orb (If a player with a Yellow Orb targets a player with a Yellow or Orange Orb their ability name is told to the targeted
player)
N1 – Targeted Axel with Yellow Orb. Re-directed to Nacho.
Fall – Give an Orange Orb (Don’t do anything, but make the other Orbs work)
N3 - Unclaimed
Winter – Give a Blue Orb (If a player with a Blue Orb targets a player with a Blue or Orange Orb that player is protected from a NK attempt)
Also X times, can give out an Orb of any color during the Day.
D1: Targeted Vezok with a Blue Orb
Vaimes: “Vendor” Not name claimed yet(?)
Each night(?) can target a player and offer them a choice of three items
1-shot Tracker
BP vest
2-shot Message sender
Vaimes gains a 1-shot version of the ability which is traded to him.
N1: Target Vezok. No effect. Confirmed by Vezok.
N2: Target fulcrum. Traded 1-shot Tracker for Dreams of Future. Confirmed by fulcrum
N3: Target Killjoy. Traded BP vest for ?
Dkingsland: Titania, Town Summer Queen
Summer – Choose a target during the day or night. Bodyguard the target for the rest of the game. Can change the target during the next Summer.
N1: Targeted Asta. Confirmed by Asta.
Asta: Oberon, Town King
Double-voter in Spring/Summer
Axelrod: Moth, Fairy Town Watcher
Spring – Target a player. Learn How Many abilities targeted that player at Night
N2: Targeted KCC. No other abilities targeted KCC
Summer – Target a player. Learn Who targeted that player at night
N1: Targeted (?) No one targeted this player N1
Fall – Target a player. Learn the Names of Abilities that targeted player at Night
N3: Targeted (?) Learned names of abilities that targeted.
Winter – Target a player. Learn the First player to target the player at Night.
Whatever your alignment is, thank you x1000 for posting this.
Okay, so despite Astas double vote being active in Spring and Summer, he never actually used it during the first Spring. It wasn't used until right after Gemma died.
Which, okay, maybe he just wanted to hold the claim, but that's not a role that really makes sense for, especially only being on sometimes. And, there wasn't any reason to suddenly reveal it at that exact moment, unless... he just got it?
Which, idk if it'd make sense with the rolesteal daykill idea, we probably would have noticed Gemma double voting, and it wouldn't have made any more sense for her to hold it. Unless maybe she had it in a different season and that part was changed, Rhands role could do that too
@Proph
I am assuming at this point that the people chosen for the chat were random
@Vaimes
my ability is worded in a way that makes me think I have to use a dream, but I never really asked
Originally I was going to do revenge but it scared me so I changed it to friendship
I think I will save revenge till last or if we lynched a town on the previous day phase, seems more fitting that way
What do you think happens if I trade the third item?
Idk, but I also don't want to find out. Arsonist or leaving the game are less scary options. It could flip on a SK NK ability or be traitor like and add you to mafia. I'm not putting anything out of bounds in a setup like this
And the messenger ability sucks, so I’m not really dying to get rid of it.
Exactly. There's basically nothing to gain from it. Even if it's only a 5% chance of being a very dangerous neutral role, that's still all risk no reward.
And if you don't care one way or the other about it, everyone agreeing to not trade again shouldn't be a problem
Okay, this is my rundown of the Rhand wagon. From the beginning of D3.
First person to mention Rhand at all, really, was Killjoy @3010. Conclusion: Could be scum. No vote yet, which is fine.
LW did a process-of-elimination thing @3055 with Rhand in the bottom four. Also, no vote here, which is also fine.
For what it is worth, I noted that Rhand was at the "top" of the people I needed to review @3076. I am also not voting anyone yet.
First actual vote comes from Vez @3085. This is based on a review of Gemma's reads. Vez is confirmed Mason.
He's not, like, super pushing Rhand here, however, and immediately notes all the other people he's willing to vote for this day. So, I don't think this vote was truly the driving force behind the lynch. Killjoy, for example, immediately votes for Keldeo next, and Asta follows that with his double-vote on Keldeo, and KCC said she supported pressure on Keldeo, and Vaimes had Keldeo on his "want to kill" list, so, there seemed much more momentum that way at the beginning.
That makes the next vote for Rhand a better look for whoever made it, which turns out to be Silver @3182. He doesn't really give his reasoning here, just says he prefers Rhand to the other options (which still include Keldeo, incidentally). It is possible this is a "non-bussing" bus vote, where you vote for a buddy who doesn't look like he's in all that much danger at the time, and you don't really push it that hard, planning to move it away later. But that's not how this develops.
Next vote was Proph @3205, and this also seems a good look to me. Again, there wasn't exactly momentum towards Rhand at this juncture, but this represented the third vote which sort of officially made the Rhand-wagon a "thing." It's certainly in Proph's range to do this as scum, but I like the vote here, and when Rhand comes back and posts some more thoughts, including a new "read list" @3209, Proph is right there on him.
Keldeo makes a post @3226, noting that as the lynch threshold is 10 for today, we will need more consensus, and suggests everyone consolidate on one of the current top three wagons (Himself, Proph, or Rhand) which seem like the only ones that could potentially reach 10 votes. And I'm like, ehh, this seems like a very "helpful townie" type post. Feels like it could come from scum, but it also could just be sincere. Part of my issue, I'm sure, is that he has himself in there as one of the three people, and it's just so against my natural instincts to ever suggest that anyone voting for me could ever be a good idea.
One other thing he does - or, rather, does not do - is make a further push for who HE thinks everyone should be consolidating onto. Like, he's voting for Proph. but he doesn't take this opportunity to argue that further, or encourage others to do the same. He's just being so very objective and analytical here. Like he doesn't want to bias the results by interjecting his personal opinion. Which seems weird to me.
I don't know if Keldeo's post is what prompts it, but Killjoy then switches his vote off Keldeo and onto Rhand @3229. This makes Rhand the leading wagon. Killjoy still just Town here if not already essentially confirmed.
I believe at this juncture, KCC may be the only one actively saying she believes Rhand to be Town.
Then Asta unvotes Keldeo and applies his double-vote to Rhand @3339. These are votes 5-6, I think, and probably the votes that effectively sealed the deal, given the lynch threshold and the amount of time left. I want to say this is a good look for Asta, and double-voter in general is pretty likely a Town ability. If Asta is scum then this vote almost certainly represents the collective scum group making a decision to throw Rhand under the bus to gain some credibility. I don't see Asta making that play on his own initiative.
fulcrum goes against the grain and votes for me @3343. I kinda want to say this is town-ish. In as much as this votes doesn't do anything as scum. I mean, I suppose you could argue she was trying to protect Rhand here and maybe see if she could get an alternate wagon going, and I guess that could be true? But it certainly didn't go anywhere. And you would think scum trying to save a partner would try to latch onto one of the more viable alternate wagons?
Rhand claims @3399.
Killjoy has the first reaction, which is good, @3401, and just says he thinks Rhand's claim is more likely scum than Vaimes' claim.
Keldeo posts @3403-04 and has a bunch of questions, but does not seems to have formulated an opinion one way or the other as to scumminess.
dkings post @3412, and seems to believe the claim and follows fulcrum and votes for me. Hmmm. Maybe there is something to this scum-tying-to-push-alternate-wagon thing after all? I think I'm at 3 now.
Asta even remarks @3416 he would be "fine" moving in this direction (towards me) if that's how things progress, but he's keeping the votes on Rhand in the meantime. So, again, this is probably an okay look for Asta, in as much as if there was going to be some kind of anti-Rhand push, this would have been the moment to make it, and not be quite so passive about it.
Keldeo says he "kind of" wants to say at least part of Rhand's claiming is Towny @3417.
I finally come back and make my posts about Rhand @3419 and 3420 and 3422 and 3426. And I mean, you can judge for yourself. I was skeptical, but I was also holding off voting to see how/if Rhand would respond.
Silver opines that he thinks Rhand is a hit @3432, though he holds open the door for "maaaybe" switching to me. I am not holding that against him.
LW says he would happily vote for Rhand @3437. This is because, thinking back, Rhand's "push" feels somewhat forced. Not sure which push LW is referring to here or why that makes all the difference at this juncture. This could also have just been a response to the impending deadline.
Rhand comes back, clarifies his role-claim @3456, and then goes "No U" to me @3457.
My final response is @, and I vote Rhand @3461. Rhand at 7 votes.
GF "signals his intention" to vote for Rhand @3474.
Keldeo then votes Rhand @3475. It's not really a strong vote. He even says that it's mainly to get a majority. He points out one thing that bothers him about Rhand's claim, which is how Rhands corrected it after it was criticized, but then that's kind of it and he spends most of the post talking about other things like if we can come up with a plan for how to use/confirm Proph's Orbs. So, this vote here is one that could easily just be a scum vote. I'm not saying it's inconsistent with his prior posting, it just doesn't give off any Townie vibes.
Rhand concedes with 3485. Making the remaining two votes basically irrelevant. For the record, they were LW and Vaimes.
Got to run now. May try to draw some more conclusions from this later.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
By that I mean, I wouldn’t think it was optional if it’s activated.
IDK, Asta only claimed a double vote in spring and summer. It's just that in D1's spring, he only cast single votes at a time. The first time he cast a second vote was in his first post after Gemmas death.
At the time, I assumed it was a Summer double vote, which would have made sense, but knowing now that it's supposed to be active in Spring too, and so he would've needed to be hiding it most of D1, and then the timing of the reveal... I don't like it
Me @3460, final response to Rhand, got left out of the above.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
If Asta is scum then this vote almost certainly represents the collective scum group making a decision to throw Rhand under the bus to gain some credibility. I don't see Asta making that play on his own initiative.
I completely agree here, but considering how easily Rhand conceded without really a fight, I think that might have been part of it
Yeah I don't really think fulcrum's role clears her. One of [fulcrum/Axelrod] is a wolf unless there's no wolf investigative, and her claimed abilities seem better for wolves than Axel's do in a vacuum. She's town sided with it pretty hard unless Killjoy is a wolf, but mechanically she isn't clear.
Dkingsland is clearer but not 100%, there aren't any apparent extra kills in the set up other than the one that killed Gemma. He's only ever a wolf with Asta because Asta confirmed the bodyguard, and with no kills that can target a wolf in the set up, wolf bodyguard isn't just "not very good" it's a goon with a non vanilla claim lmao.
Keldeo can still be a wolf, he just probably isn't the daykiller, so if you're voting him because he might be, lol. The wolf roleblocker is ~almost definitely either him or KCC though (low odds of Proph but blue orb bulletproof and how loud his role is makes me ehhhh).
I'm pretty sure Asta was concealing his double vote most of D1, yeah. I remember isoing him after he revealed his extra vote and he specifically made sure to unvote the player he was already voting before voting again.
Keldeo can still be a wolf, he just probably isn't the daykiller, so if you're voting him because he might be, lol. The wolf roleblocker is ~almost definitely either him or KCC though (low odds of Proph but blue orb bulletproof and how loud his role is makes me ehhhh)I'm pretty sure Asta was concealing his double vote most of D1, yeah. I remember isoing him after he revealed his extra vote and he specifically made sure to unvote the player he was already voting before voting again.
Unfortunately, a lot of newer players just do that.
Keldeo can still be a wolf, he just probably isn't the daykiller, so if you're voting him because he might be, lol. The wolf roleblocker is ~almost definitely either him or KCC though (low odds of Proph but blue orb bulletproof and how loud his role is makes me ehhhh).
Eh? I don't think anyone is voting Keldeo because they think he's the daykiller.
But usually double voters are revealed by the mod because they’re listed twice in the vote count, so I don’t get this whole “hiding his second vote” thing. It shouldn’t be possible.
And I only recall DV counting Asta twice somewhat recently, certainly not on Day 1.
But usually double voters are revealed by the mod because they’re listed twice in the vote count, so I don’t get this whole “hiding his second vote” thing. It shouldn’t be possible.
And I only recall DV counting Asta twice somewhat recently, certainly not on Day 1.
Asta can clarify next time he drops in.
Asta has voted twice for the same person when double voting, and has shown being able to split the votes to different people. So, he has two votes, rather than his vote counting twice.
For some reason I have literally no memory of it ever being brought up.
Because it wasn't a big deal, especially with everything else going on. The season changed, and now he had a second vote, fine, but there's CCs and season swap and daykills and wagons and claims to focus on
Silver:
He’s having fun in RVS and his reaction to Shadow in #14 feels pure. I would be very surprised if that comes from scum!Silver because I don’t expect him to think about a post like that as scum and craft an answer when it’s totally not necessary.
His mixed feelings from Nacho pushing him are normal.
His vote on me seems to come out of nowhere, but when he explains it, he’s voting me for what town always mislynch me for when I get mislynched: my posts feel weird.
Verdict: town
The focus of this "read" is to defuse silvers push, and devalue his vote.
Verdict: town
I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion here. This looks like the kind of weak attack/easy defense scum can coordinate in daychat. I think there is another example of this (see below), and the fact that you are just not even considering the daychat angle at all makes me feel even better about you being town now.
Lastwhisper:
He starts his own sidegame instead of playing the game at first, and then calls Nacho wolfy for his reaction to KCC, which I think was a very pure reaction. Nacho gets more flak for that though; too much to all come from scum.
He doesn’t like tom’s gimmick, but his reaction to it is better than Axelrod’s: he merely says he’s not a fan of the gimmick and that tom doesn’t give him town vibes. Ergo, he’s not calling the gimmick itself scummy, which is good.
His response to Vaimes where he uses the word “probably” talking about his tells not being AI bugs me bigtime. It looks like he jokingly wants to get rid of Vaimes’ push.
His reads in #163 don’t look like real reads. He doesn’t give a real read on both Vaimes and Silver and waffles on Nacho. The only thing there is a townread on KJ.
A lot of scum!pings there, but his later posts are suddenly way better. I like how he questions Silver’s Rhand vote and how he starts real worldbuilding and pressuring Vezok.
Verdict: lean town (if he’s scum he won’t keep up his new posting)
The purpose of this "read" is to reinforce/encourage pushes on Nacho/Vez/silver. It's being friendly with hopes of steering down wrong paths, with some doors left open to turn around later
Verdict: town
KCC:
Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the townie thing to do. Scum doesn’t like locking themselves into a claim from the start. I know a few players that do things like that, but KCC doesn’t strike me as one of those, unless she is consciously changing up her game. Which is totally unnecessary because she hasn’t played that many games recently that we all know her meta.
I like her Nacho reaction and have a total mindmeld with her question to Vaimes in #200
Verdict: town
This was a good play, not coming at me cripples a good chunk of my hunting style. I wouldn't be surprised if Rhand encouraged most or all of the scumteam to play hands off with me.
Who do you think are his buddies in light of this?
Axelrod:
The fact that he chose a semi-serious RVS target is bothersome. What is worse is that he uses KCC’s later posts to strengthen that vote. And then he calls tom’s gimmick in itself scummy.
Verdict: scum
If Axel is town, this isn't a soft target he's going after, which is dramatically different from his approach to Gemma and Tom. This also isn't so much an attack as further buddying to me and Tom, On the other hand, rhand might just think he sees a potential opening to rally me and/or Tom in this direction early.
Verdict: maybe scum
I agree with the bolded specifically... the push doesn't look like one Rhand really "believed" in, and it's possible he was planting a seed to point back to for some towncred if Axelrod ever flips scum.
I'm sticking to my guns on Rhand/Keldeo/Axel not all being scum together though, and Keldeo definitely looks like a hit.
Nacho:
I think the reaction she gave to KCC could come from either alignment, with a bigger chance of coming from town. Scum demanding claims on page 1 is pretty darn dumb, and Nacho isn’t dumb.
I like where her vote is right now.
I don’t like the mindreaver vote and the continued KCC pressure.
Verdict: lean town
Nicely calls nacho Town and not dumb, but leaves openings. Steers away from mind (which I think is buddy defense here) and also me (which is probably a mix of pocketing me and waiting to see if I'd turn on Nacho to open this option up)
Fulcrum:
Her first post feels like she distances herself from town a bit with how she talks about tom. Probably NAI though because she hasn’t been active on the site for a while.
I like how she wants Nacho to stop about KCC, which is indeed a needless distraction in thread by now.
Not much more there yet. I’ll need more to form a read.
Verdict: null
I could see this either way. The subtle shading might be keeping a mislynch open, though the "hasn't played here in a while" bit could be setting up a defense if anyone says she feels off.
Verdict: Maybe scum from just the iso? Luckily, I think her confirmed ability (and her sharing it), are almost clearing now
Another thing I found in my D1 notes was that odd post Rhand made saying that fulcrum would only talk to vezok about buddying if they were both scum or both town. This was when vezok was looking pretty bad (and I think he was pushing vezok at the time?), and it felt like he may have been trying to tie town!fulcrum to a scum flip. In retrospect he may have been trying to make fulcrum look better if vezok got lynched and flipped town.
Also, fulcrum makes a lot of sense on an Rhand/Keldeo team.
Asta:
Nothing really there. It bothers me that she did read the game when she posted #293 and didn’t comment on anything apart from answering a question directed at her.
Can be newb scum that doesn’t really know how to play scum.
Verdict: lean scum
If Asta is scum, why go past that first sentence? Why go out of the way to shade, but only gently where there's not much credit to be gained
Verdict: lean town
This is the other one that could be scum theater. It's pretty weak shade, and he could have coached Asta's response.
I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion here. This looks like the kind of weak attack/easy defense scum can coordinate in daychat. I think there is another example of this (see below), and the fact that you are just not even considering the daychat angle at all makes me feel even better about you being town now.
IDK, that's not impossible, but I just don't think Rhand takes that approach with silver
Who do you think are his buddies in light of this?
I'd probably need a full reread to look for this, but I'm not even that sure on it. Off hand, I guess you might be a little less likely scum. I should mention though, I think Axel is an exception to this and I wouldn't expect this to apply to him if scum
Another thing I found in my D1 notes was that odd post Rhand made saying that fulcrum would only talk to vezok about buddying if they were both scum or both town. This was when vezok was looking pretty bad (and I think he was pushing vezok at the time?), and it felt like he may have been trying to tie town!fulcrum to a scum flip. In retrospect he may have been trying to make fulcrum look better if vezok got lynched and flipped town.
Also, fulcrum makes a lot of sense on an Rhand/Keldeo team.
There's actually a ton of this: Rhand linking fulcrum to various people
Axelrod: Fair points regarding dkings and fulcrum; it's just pretty difficult for me to conceptualize the idea of a loud mafia bodyguard or a mafia that has
a random cop ability.
Quote from Lastwhisper »
@Proph
I am assuming at this point that the people chosen for the chat were random
OK, good to know. Can you please answer my other questions, though? 3602 and 3700 are the post numbers in question.
Axelrod's analysis of the Rhand wagon is solid. Him bringing up the fact that Silver was one of the early voters on the Rhand wagon and stayed there bodes well for him.
His point about Keldeo voting me, but not really pushing it is also something I want to talk to Keldeo about. I don't know if that's how he plays or not, but I did notice that Keldeo was pretty hands-off about confronting me Yesterday; he mostly asked me a bunch of questions rather than putting me under the gun. Again, not sure if that's just playstyle quirk or not but it did strike me as odd.
Quote from Axelrod »
I believe at this juncture, KCC may be the only one actively saying she believes Rhand to be Town.
Axel, what do you believe this means for KCC's alignment? The fact that KCC was the only real person who was thinking Rhand would possibly be town?
---
My reads are all currently kind of a mess. I'll try to find time to look at Rhand interactions tomorrow and see if I can re-center myself.
I iso'd Rhand but it doesn't really change any of my opinions
His Killjoy progression reads a bit like theater from his side, but Killjoy's D1 wolf read on him doesn't really read like a bus so idk
Lunch Keldeo, lunch through Axelrod/fulcrum for the wolf investigative, if fulcrum is the wolf in that pair look at Killjoy because he's maybe the day killer.
If Keldeo isn't the wolf roleblocker it's KCC, the other roleblocks are too random/convoluted to be the wolf manipulative
My King of Aos Si ability is active in Spring and Summer, but it would not go into effect until the game switched to Summer. Nacho actually started it, but god knows I wasn't particularly active and wasn't even really sure of when to push forward. The game mechanics seemed to be set up so that I couldn't reveal my status as King until Summer when Titania, the Queen, could protect me since Titania can only target during Summer.
I do have a Winter ability called Benevolent King which allows me to increase another player's lynch threshold by one. So yeah, that's a thing I have, not sure if I'll actually have a need/desire to use it.
No idea what to make of the game at this point. Just interested in how this lynch goes.
My King of Aos Si ability is active in Spring and Summer, but it would not go into effect until the game switched to Summer. Nacho actually started it, but god knows I wasn't particularly active and wasn't even really sure of when to push forward. The game mechanics seemed to be set up so that I couldn't reveal my status as King until Summer when Titania, the Queen, could protect me since Titania can only target during Summer.
I do have a Winter ability called Benevolent King which allows me to increase another player's lynch threshold by one. So yeah, that's a thing I have, not sure if I'll actually have a need/desire to use it.
No idea what to make of the game at this point. Just interested in how this lynch goes.
I'm just going to confirm this as town. There's no way the scum fabricate such a fake claim, keep it consistent and have great flavour for it.
The lynch threshold increase ability is just gravy. Let's lynch Keldeo and move on.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy. Check out the Shop Thread
I iso'd Rhand but it doesn't really change any of my opinions
His Killjoy progression reads a bit like theater from his side, but Killjoy's D1 wolf read on him doesn't really read like a bus so idk
Lunch Keldeo, lunch through Axelrod/fulcrum for the wolf investigative, if fulcrum is the wolf in that pair look at Killjoy because he's maybe the day killer.
If Keldeo isn't the wolf roleblocker it's KCC, the other roleblocks are too random/convoluted to be the wolf manipulative
Proph doesn't factor in as scum in your pov because of his role?
Yeah I don't really see a version of the set up with a wolf who gives out orbs that have random effects they have no control over every night?
Like, you could give green orbs to people you want to role block but then they still have to target someone with an orange orb or another green one... I think the wolf version of that role works on targeting any orb at minimum and it doesn't seem like something one would think to change when claiming it
It's too weak to be the wolf manipulative, they need fairly strong roles because there are fewer of them
@silver
But like what about their posts, given I haven't really deep dived either at this time, KCC/Proph or really even Keldeo, what are your thoughts there
@proph
I'll get to your questions tonight
Yesterday and the day before was like the height of my cold, couldn't think with a headache, but I am good now
@Vaimes
Still don't think it's that simple, we are still just picking through a PoE, so idk what else you expect to happen
There is still one thing bugging me, why wouldn't wolf!keldeo wanna push a Lynch on on Fulcrum, like at least we'd have something to talk about that day, and we could've come to our own conclusion the matter
It feels more like buddy on buddy than anything, but then that means he is lying about the roleblock all together, or he targeted his own buddy because ???
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Is this paranoia? Maybe? But it's healthy paranoia, I say!
Also, for much the same reasons, the fact fulcrum had an ability to detect a "non-mafia" player who takes an action does not "clear" her. It's been said, but that ability can go on scum. Now, I find the way that fulcrum has handled it to be Towny, and I am currently not interested in her, but she is not actually "mechanically clear" as you are suggesting.
The other two are though, baring a fulcrum/Killjoy gambit which seems unlikely.
Which, okay, maybe he just wanted to hold the claim, but that's not a role that really makes sense for, especially only being on sometimes. And, there wasn't any reason to suddenly reveal it at that exact moment, unless... he just got it?
Which, idk if it'd make sense with the rolesteal daykill idea, we probably would have noticed Gemma double voting, and it wouldn't have made any more sense for her to hold it. Unless maybe she had it in a different season and that part was changed, Rhands role could do that too
I still think this is an awful idea. I already trust that this is a real ability, I don't think confirming it's existence accomplishes much of anything anyway. And, can we maybe agree on or at least discuss no one taking that 3rd message ability from vaimes?
There aren’t a lot of options here, now that I think of it, so I’m curious what makes you feel strong enough about it to fear-monger me.
I’m not a neutral, this is just amusing for me. And the messenger ability sucks, so I’m not really dying to get rid of it.
Last, are you required to take a Night action?
I’d say it’s better for two of these slots (whoever’s alive when we move into spring) to act instead of one, in case scum roleblocks one of them.
A family member died this morning. I'm not sure if I'll be up for posting, giving myself space in case I'm not. Will replace put later if needed.
I am assuming at this point that the people chosen for the chat were random
@Vaimes
my ability is worded in a way that makes me think I have to use a dream, but I never really asked
Originally I was going to do revenge but it scared me so I changed it to friendship
I think I will save revenge till last or if we lynched a town on the previous day phase, seems more fitting that way
Exactly. There's basically nothing to gain from it. Even if it's only a 5% chance of being a very dangerous neutral role, that's still all risk no reward.
And if you don't care one way or the other about it, everyone agreeing to not trade again shouldn't be a problem
Well, my Spring is a RB, which shouldn't be blockable
First person to mention Rhand at all, really, was Killjoy @3010. Conclusion: Could be scum. No vote yet, which is fine.
LW did a process-of-elimination thing @3055 with Rhand in the bottom four. Also, no vote here, which is also fine.
For what it is worth, I noted that Rhand was at the "top" of the people I needed to review @3076. I am also not voting anyone yet.
First actual vote comes from Vez @3085. This is based on a review of Gemma's reads. Vez is confirmed Mason.
He's not, like, super pushing Rhand here, however, and immediately notes all the other people he's willing to vote for this day. So, I don't think this vote was truly the driving force behind the lynch. Killjoy, for example, immediately votes for Keldeo next, and Asta follows that with his double-vote on Keldeo, and KCC said she supported pressure on Keldeo, and Vaimes had Keldeo on his "want to kill" list, so, there seemed much more momentum that way at the beginning.
That makes the next vote for Rhand a better look for whoever made it, which turns out to be Silver @3182. He doesn't really give his reasoning here, just says he prefers Rhand to the other options (which still include Keldeo, incidentally). It is possible this is a "non-bussing" bus vote, where you vote for a buddy who doesn't look like he's in all that much danger at the time, and you don't really push it that hard, planning to move it away later. But that's not how this develops.
Next vote was Proph @3205, and this also seems a good look to me. Again, there wasn't exactly momentum towards Rhand at this juncture, but this represented the third vote which sort of officially made the Rhand-wagon a "thing." It's certainly in Proph's range to do this as scum, but I like the vote here, and when Rhand comes back and posts some more thoughts, including a new "read list" @3209, Proph is right there on him.
Keldeo makes a post @3226, noting that as the lynch threshold is 10 for today, we will need more consensus, and suggests everyone consolidate on one of the current top three wagons (Himself, Proph, or Rhand) which seem like the only ones that could potentially reach 10 votes. And I'm like, ehh, this seems like a very "helpful townie" type post. Feels like it could come from scum, but it also could just be sincere. Part of my issue, I'm sure, is that he has himself in there as one of the three people, and it's just so against my natural instincts to ever suggest that anyone voting for me could ever be a good idea.
One other thing he does - or, rather, does not do - is make a further push for who HE thinks everyone should be consolidating onto. Like, he's voting for Proph. but he doesn't take this opportunity to argue that further, or encourage others to do the same. He's just being so very objective and analytical here. Like he doesn't want to bias the results by interjecting his personal opinion. Which seems weird to me.
I don't know if Keldeo's post is what prompts it, but Killjoy then switches his vote off Keldeo and onto Rhand @3229. This makes Rhand the leading wagon. Killjoy still just Town here if not already essentially confirmed.
I believe at this juncture, KCC may be the only one actively saying she believes Rhand to be Town.
Then Asta unvotes Keldeo and applies his double-vote to Rhand @3339. These are votes 5-6, I think, and probably the votes that effectively sealed the deal, given the lynch threshold and the amount of time left. I want to say this is a good look for Asta, and double-voter in general is pretty likely a Town ability. If Asta is scum then this vote almost certainly represents the collective scum group making a decision to throw Rhand under the bus to gain some credibility. I don't see Asta making that play on his own initiative.
fulcrum goes against the grain and votes for me @3343. I kinda want to say this is town-ish. In as much as this votes doesn't do anything as scum. I mean, I suppose you could argue she was trying to protect Rhand here and maybe see if she could get an alternate wagon going, and I guess that could be true? But it certainly didn't go anywhere. And you would think scum trying to save a partner would try to latch onto one of the more viable alternate wagons?
Rhand claims @3399.
Killjoy has the first reaction, which is good, @3401, and just says he thinks Rhand's claim is more likely scum than Vaimes' claim.
Keldeo posts @3403-04 and has a bunch of questions, but does not seems to have formulated an opinion one way or the other as to scumminess.
dkings post @3412, and seems to believe the claim and follows fulcrum and votes for me. Hmmm. Maybe there is something to this scum-tying-to-push-alternate-wagon thing after all? I think I'm at 3 now.
Asta even remarks @3416 he would be "fine" moving in this direction (towards me) if that's how things progress, but he's keeping the votes on Rhand in the meantime. So, again, this is probably an okay look for Asta, in as much as if there was going to be some kind of anti-Rhand push, this would have been the moment to make it, and not be quite so passive about it.
Keldeo says he "kind of" wants to say at least part of Rhand's claiming is Towny @3417.
I finally come back and make my posts about Rhand @3419 and 3420 and 3422 and 3426. And I mean, you can judge for yourself. I was skeptical, but I was also holding off voting to see how/if Rhand would respond.
Silver opines that he thinks Rhand is a hit @3432, though he holds open the door for "maaaybe" switching to me. I am not holding that against him.
LW says he would happily vote for Rhand @3437. This is because, thinking back, Rhand's "push" feels somewhat forced. Not sure which push LW is referring to here or why that makes all the difference at this juncture. This could also have just been a response to the impending deadline.
Rhand comes back, clarifies his role-claim @3456, and then goes "No U" to me @3457.
My final response is @, and I vote Rhand @3461. Rhand at 7 votes.
GF "signals his intention" to vote for Rhand @3474.
Keldeo then votes Rhand @3475. It's not really a strong vote. He even says that it's mainly to get a majority. He points out one thing that bothers him about Rhand's claim, which is how Rhands corrected it after it was criticized, but then that's kind of it and he spends most of the post talking about other things like if we can come up with a plan for how to use/confirm Proph's Orbs. So, this vote here is one that could easily just be a scum vote. I'm not saying it's inconsistent with his prior posting, it just doesn't give off any Townie vibes.
Rhand concedes with 3485. Making the remaining two votes basically irrelevant. For the record, they were LW and Vaimes.
Got to run now. May try to draw some more conclusions from this later.
IDK, Asta only claimed a double vote in spring and summer. It's just that in D1's spring, he only cast single votes at a time. The first time he cast a second vote was in his first post after Gemmas death.
At the time, I assumed it was a Summer double vote, which would have made sense, but knowing now that it's supposed to be active in Spring too, and so he would've needed to be hiding it most of D1, and then the timing of the reveal... I don't like it
I completely agree here, but considering how easily Rhand conceded without really a fight, I think that might have been part of it
These two posts definitely don’t indicate an optional double-vote:
Dkingsland is clearer but not 100%, there aren't any apparent extra kills in the set up other than the one that killed Gemma. He's only ever a wolf with Asta because Asta confirmed the bodyguard, and with no kills that can target a wolf in the set up, wolf bodyguard isn't just "not very good" it's a goon with a non vanilla claim lmao.
Keldeo can still be a wolf, he just probably isn't the daykiller, so if you're voting him because he might be, lol. The wolf roleblocker is ~almost definitely either him or KCC though (low odds of Proph but blue orb bulletproof and how loud his role is makes me ehhhh).
I'm pretty sure Asta was concealing his double vote most of D1, yeah. I remember isoing him after he revealed his extra vote and he specifically made sure to unvote the player he was already voting before voting again.
Asta already had a vote on me there. That just moved the 2nd vote from you on to me as well
Unfortunately, a lot of newer players just do that.
Eh? I don't think anyone is voting Keldeo because they think he's the daykiller.
Oh, whoops. Carry on.
And I only recall DV counting Asta twice somewhat recently, certainly not on Day 1.
Asta can clarify next time he drops in.
Yeah, there's nothing that concrete, it's all circumstantial
Asta has voted twice for the same person when double voting, and has shown being able to split the votes to different people. So, he has two votes, rather than his vote counting twice.
For some reason I have literally no memory of it ever being brought up.
Because it wasn't a big deal, especially with everything else going on. The season changed, and now he had a second vote, fine, but there's CCs and season swap and daykills and wagons and claims to focus on
I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion here. This looks like the kind of weak attack/easy defense scum can coordinate in daychat. I think there is another example of this (see below), and the fact that you are just not even considering the daychat angle at all makes me feel even better about you being town now.
Yup.
Who do you think are his buddies in light of this?
I agree with the bolded specifically... the push doesn't look like one Rhand really "believed" in, and it's possible he was planting a seed to point back to for some towncred if Axelrod ever flips scum.
I'm sticking to my guns on Rhand/Keldeo/Axel not all being scum together though, and Keldeo definitely looks like a hit.
This all seems pretty reasonable.
Another thing I found in my D1 notes was that odd post Rhand made saying that fulcrum would only talk to vezok about buddying if they were both scum or both town. This was when vezok was looking pretty bad (and I think he was pushing vezok at the time?), and it felt like he may have been trying to tie town!fulcrum to a scum flip. In retrospect he may have been trying to make fulcrum look better if vezok got lynched and flipped town.
Also, fulcrum makes a lot of sense on an Rhand/Keldeo team.
This is the other one that could be scum theater. It's pretty weak shade, and he could have coached Asta's response.
Did Asta every fully claim?
IDK, that's not impossible, but I just don't think Rhand takes that approach with silver
I'd probably need a full reread to look for this, but I'm not even that sure on it. Off hand, I guess you might be a little less likely scum. I should mention though, I think Axel is an exception to this and I wouldn't expect this to apply to him if scum
There's actually a ton of this: Rhand linking fulcrum to various people That's definitely a possibility. And a lot of Astas posts feel potentially coached
I'd have to go back and look for it but I seem to remember it being connected to a vote
a random cop ability.
OK, good to know. Can you please answer my other questions, though? 3602 and 3700 are the post numbers in question.
Axelrod's analysis of the Rhand wagon is solid. Him bringing up the fact that Silver was one of the early voters on the Rhand wagon and stayed there bodes well for him.
His point about Keldeo voting me, but not really pushing it is also something I want to talk to Keldeo about. I don't know if that's how he plays or not, but I did notice that Keldeo was pretty hands-off about confronting me Yesterday; he mostly asked me a bunch of questions rather than putting me under the gun. Again, not sure if that's just playstyle quirk or not but it did strike me as odd.
Axel, what do you believe this means for KCC's alignment? The fact that KCC was the only real person who was thinking Rhand would possibly be town?
---
My reads are all currently kind of a mess. I'll try to find time to look at Rhand interactions tomorrow and see if I can re-center myself.
I will come back once I dont feel like crap
>game screeches to a halt
His Killjoy progression reads a bit like theater from his side, but Killjoy's D1 wolf read on him doesn't really read like a bus so idk
Lunch Keldeo, lunch through Axelrod/fulcrum for the wolf investigative, if fulcrum is the wolf in that pair look at Killjoy because he's maybe the day killer.
If Keldeo isn't the wolf roleblocker it's KCC, the other roleblocks are too random/convoluted to be the wolf manipulative
My King of Aos Si ability is active in Spring and Summer, but it would not go into effect until the game switched to Summer. Nacho actually started it, but god knows I wasn't particularly active and wasn't even really sure of when to push forward. The game mechanics seemed to be set up so that I couldn't reveal my status as King until Summer when Titania, the Queen, could protect me since Titania can only target during Summer.
I do have a Winter ability called Benevolent King which allows me to increase another player's lynch threshold by one. So yeah, that's a thing I have, not sure if I'll actually have a need/desire to use it.
No idea what to make of the game at this point. Just interested in how this lynch goes.
I'm just going to confirm this as town. There's no way the scum fabricate such a fake claim, keep it consistent and have great flavour for it.
The lynch threshold increase ability is just gravy. Let's lynch Keldeo and move on.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
The Current Season is Fall.
With 12 Alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Proph doesn't factor in as scum in your pov because of his role?
Like, you could give green orbs to people you want to role block but then they still have to target someone with an orange orb or another green one... I think the wolf version of that role works on targeting any orb at minimum and it doesn't seem like something one would think to change when claiming it
It's too weak to be the wolf manipulative, they need fairly strong roles because there are fewer of them
But like what about their posts, given I haven't really deep dived either at this time, KCC/Proph or really even Keldeo, what are your thoughts there
@proph
I'll get to your questions tonight
Yesterday and the day before was like the height of my cold, couldn't think with a headache, but I am good now
Still don't think it's that simple, we are still just picking through a PoE, so idk what else you expect to happen
There is still one thing bugging me, why wouldn't wolf!keldeo wanna push a Lynch on on Fulcrum, like at least we'd have something to talk about that day, and we could've come to our own conclusion the matter
It feels more like buddy on buddy than anything, but then that means he is lying about the roleblock all together, or he targeted his own buddy because ???
I need to spend more time trying to understand keldeo mindset this game to figure out why he did what he did
I'll try to be more productive tomorrow.