Hey Tom this is kinda looking like that thing I do sometimes when I latch on to something small, decide it means a person is scum and stay tangenting from there.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Hey Tom this is kinda looking like that thing I do sometimes when I latch on to something small, decide it means a person is scum and stay tangenting from there.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So my current thoughts on who the lynch should be:
Meg- I'm not sure I believe meg re: he's trying to be less aggressive. The rest of his play still seems very disconnected from each other. Meg recently said to me that he typically posts his thoughts in such a way that he can ISO himself and kind of... relive the game through his eyes. I believe he literally said he uses that in lieu of notes. So, those thoughts should have some sort of notable progression, no?
Actually, I'm ISOing him right now to look for progression, and I'm not seeing much in the way of "thoughts" insofar as there are a lot of sarcastic comments, questions that don't really have any followup, and answering questions posed to him. He also does this thing with Vaimes in the early game where he shades him a bunch but also refuses to scumread him that I don't like. There's also him being ok with KK lynch because of KCC's catch, despite his apparently generally seeming to scumread him (the most recent point he'd made about KK was that he didn't like his vote on silver in 340) but also not being ok with it because arguments make sense and frustration seems real.
I just feel like his whole thing doesn't amount to a cohesive thought process. Like, with the early game stuff with Vaimes... that's kinda the last we hear about Vaimes from his perspective. He highlights suspicous things he's been doing, hasn't mentioned any real townie things he's done, but no longer seems interested in him. He wants to lynch KK for reasons that are not his own, despite the fact that he should reasonably have some of his own. Further, he likes KCC's catch on KK enough to justify a lynch, but doesn't remember what the catch actually was, and doesn't seem interested enough to actually check.
His thoughts just feel... fake... as a whole. The only real one I really saw was about me in 485. Where's more of that? Where's him putting reads together to form a conclusion.
Hm.
I feel like you are pointing things that were mentioned in the modern mafia spec chat. (For anybody who wants to follow the discussion I'm about to have, i recommend control+fing "reread." While you're in there, try "saving," too.)
I have said in the past that I reread my own posts instead of taking notes. That is correct. I don't take notes when I play, so to make up for that I post a lot and try to point out things as I go. That way, later on, I can just ISO myself and see what's up.
Now, I think you were expecting to see something different out of that process than what it actually is. And because you aren't seeing what you thought you would see, you're coming to the conclusion that I am faking that process here and that i'm scum. Is that about right?
I bolded a few sections above. Here they are again: Meg recently said to me that he typically posts his thoughts in such a way that he can ISO himself and kind of... relive the game through his eyes. I believe he literally said he uses that in lieu of notes. He highlights suspicous things he's been doing, hasn't mentioned any real townie things he's done, but no longer seems interested in him. Further, he likes KCC's catch on KK enough to justify a lynch, but doesn't remember what the catch actually was
I wanted to point these out because, to me, the second two statements support the first. To elaborate, with Vaimes I have in fact highlighted things he was doing that I thought were suspicious. But I didn't vote, no, and I dropped a lot of that because I was more interested in pursuing other leads. However, yeah, later in the game if I'm alive and able to reread myself (or, say, if somebody else rereads me? :)) I may see those posts and recall that yes, Vaimes made some posts I didn't like. That would prompt me to dig further into vaimes, and given the new context we have after flips I might find something useful.
My posts themselves are often immaterial. Like, sometimes I can just cold call scum behavior out of RVS, sure, but a lot of the time it's just "this argument doesn't make sense" or "i'm not sure what you're doing here" or whatever, and seeing that after a few flips can be enough to set me down the right path on somebody when I'm trying to narrow POE.
(related, don't forget that I was v/la for... almost a week, and the texture of the game changed in that time. it would be pretty silly to come back from that and just pick up where i left off from 8 pages earlier in the thread!)
With KK, I think this one is a bit more self-evident. You said "he posts instead of taking notes" and then are calling me out for not remembering something. Cool. I also dispute the sentence immediately after the quoted portion, where you say I couldn't be bothered to go look it up:
@cantrip i’ll answer the rest when i get home and am on laptop, but for 869, in short, i was writing that post at least in part from memory. the catch stood out to me, but i mostly had memories of how i felt while reading it, not what specifically i was reading. like i said earlier i was reading the thread last night while falling asleep.
in the past hour i have actually gone back and read and even now i barely remember (the catch was a tone thing with the “flippant reply” but... that’s all i’ve got) but THAT reread got me thinking more about KK... so, i’ll do a deeper dive into that later today, along with your other questions.
I'll admit having a weird memory when it comes to details, but you can't say I didn't go back and see what it was. Because i did.
>Where's him putting reads together to form a conclusion.
Again, I think you're looking for something that doesn't exist in the form you're looking for it in. But I promise, the thoughts are there. You can always ask for why I've done something. As you have seen several times this game I am happy to dump my thoughts into the thread about it when asked.
Like, regarding KK, I definitely voted (or, you know, expressed interest in voting) based on KCC's catch, but that's not the only reason I was interested in KK. Did I pull together a PBPA of KK posts and say "he's done X, Y, and Z, therefore he's scum?" no. but this, which I can only call shade: "He wants to lynch KK for reasons that are not his own, despite the fact that he should reasonably have some of his own" is not accurate.
This obviously is going to prompt you to ask why I was scumreading KK, and to that I'd say... I'd have to look back I can do that if it's really desired. But from memory, at the time I voted a lot of it was sort of subconscious tone reads? Somebody else has said he feels kind of manufactured and I agree with that assessment. He was also very self-aware with his answers about being scum.
After last Night's reread, which I executive-summarized in what I assume is my previous post before this one, I saw that KK was not solving, particularly when it comes to Cantrip.
Actually, the cantrip read you didn't talk about at all wrt me. You "don't get the read." What don't you get? Tom's piece or mine? or both? Happy to explain, just ask!
So again, that's how this works. I think you are just looking for things that aren't really how I do things.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I should clarify re: Meg: when I say I don't buy the less aggressive thing, I mean that I don't think it has a connection with his lack of scum hunting. I fully believe that he realized that his play irratates some people and wants to stop. But he's trying to say that's why he's not actively looking for answers, which I do not believe.
imagine that I also quoted this when responding to the above post. I didn't directly address it but my point is "yes, I am actively looking for answers... i just don't do that the way you expect"
anyway, to the broader question, I'm holding out hope for the CFD to Cantrip here, but I will 100% switch to KK if that doesn't get anywhere.
Deadline is 5PM for me (and it's almost 9AM now...?) so there's time.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
The last few performers had seemed quite interesting so to say, but at least the next performer looks much more traditional when it comes to costumes and performance. Not that those performances were bad, but it's sometimes refreshing to see one without any weird gimmicks.
I will have time to look at Cantrip (there’s...more support for him than I would’ve guessed and idk what that means) in like. Four hours. I know that’s cutting it close so if hammer falls early then oops.
Megs did you randomly type a post with proper capitalization and then switch back to your usual style or was that post supposed to be a quote slash ironic?
Something came up and now I’m in town on the phone with my notes on my laptop on the ship... sigh.
The biggest pro I saw in the half iso of Cantrip that I could read before I got called away is that he seems to try to form an opinion on everyone. I haven’t kept tabs on how often he interacts with who, but he seems to have questions for / talks about most everyone.
The biggest con would be his Megs read. His vote and his restatement later of why he voted seem not to match.
If someone could provide quotes for that, that would be awesome. The restatement was in a bigger post, I think as answer to KJ.
There was also something somewhere which made me think that if he’s scum, it has to be woth eother megs or Vezok.
I’m not sure if I’ll be back at my pc before deadline.
@Anyone pushing a KK counterwagon from this point forward: I'm going to need to see not just why you think they are a better lynch, but why you think they are so much more likely to be scum that it's worth dumping more claims into the thread at this point. Or, why you don't care
Cantrip: Re: Meg: 213 is the post I was referencing where he was explaining himself. Explain this more, because I'm still not sure why it's scummy. He's literally just explaining his thought process. But I do agree that he's doing a bit of egging and fluffposting... the issue is I think he does that as either alignment.
I admit that my memory is not great, so I may be misremembering, but I generally remember Megiddo as more or less devil-may-care/does what he wants, and what I saw of town!him in Modern didn't change that. To make sure, I just reread his ISO from Modern, and this game he feels a LOT different. I'll go into more detail when I have a little more time, but here I've noticed a few posts where he almost feels like he's pandering, and his fluffposts are a LOT more abrasive than they were in Modern. Again, I'll do my best to point out specifics soon.
Also, are you seriously voting Meg for explaining himself? Is that really significant enough for a scumread?
No, I'm voting Megiddo primarily for 213 where it sounds like he's trying to explain why he might feel different from previous games, and then 239 where he asks Silver if Silver has any more questions for Megiddo without responding to Silver's 238. In addition, I feel like he's also been egging players on and fluff-posting.
@Anyone pushing a KK counterwagon from this point forward: I'm going to need to see not just why you think they are a better lynch, but why you think they are so much more likely to be scum that it's worth dumping more claims into the thread at this point. Or, why you don't care
i dont think <the person thats forced to claim first> should automatically become the default lynch, i dont think the reasons hes being voted are particularly indicative and he responded fine to a wagon, cantrip more likely to flip scum, and i care more about lynching scum than minimizing claims (though both would be nice)
i dont think the reasons hes being voted are particularly indicative and he responded fine to a wagon, cantrip more likely to flip scum, and i care more about lynching scum than minimizing claims (though both would be nice)
I'm not seeing it, and I'm a bit suspicious that this case didn't exist until 24 hours before deadline
Yeah, but your cantrip case is seriously weak. Lynch me and analyze interactions (I’m pretty sure I have a lot more than cantrip)
I don’t like Megs stance on this. Either of us could be scum separately or we could both be scum? Looks like scum looking for chain mislynches to me. And he seems to be using his previous statements of Tom pocketing him to jump on the wagon with no reasoning of his own. Plus, his stance on me has gone from waffling to certain out of nowhere. I still don’t think it’s worth switching wagons though.
I want people to look closer at Vaimes after my flip. I think he’s acting very different since his argument with Last and I don’t like it.
vote KoolKoal
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
Yeah, but your cantrip case is seriously weak. Lynch me and analyze interactions (I’m pretty sure I have a lot more than cantrip)
I don’t like Megs stance on this. Either of us could be scum separately or we could both be scum? Looks like scum looking for chain mislynches to me. And he seems to be using his previous statements of Tom pocketing him to jump on the wagon with no reasoning of his own. Plus, his stance on me has gone from waffling to certain out of nowhere. I still don’t think it’s worth switching wagons though.
I want people to look closer at Vaimes after my flip. I think he’s acting very different since his argument with Last and I don’t like it.
Youre voting yourself because...
You think one of your counterwagons is scum?
Because my cantrip case makes him think hes less likely scum than you are?
I’m not scumreading him. I don’t like his position on this wagon. I find that move suspicious.
I’m not promoting poor town play just to save my life. I still see myself as the correct lynch because of the deadline. Nothing short of 100% confirmed scum will change that this late in the Day.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
@Silver: it doesn’t feel like a walk back, but I’ll grant there’s not really much there to say either way.
Popping in to add that I would probably expect scum, when asked to clarify that question, would be more likely to go "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". Barring multiple buddies in Vaimes/Silver/KCC, I guess, but I agree with Shadow that it's a townie response and I like Emiko for it.
Because instead of saying exactly one, and locking that group down, he’s saying up to one, which has an entirely different connotation.
Exactly one is super useful for false clearing/chain lynching/whatever, whereas up to one reads more like someone making a genuine situation read.
@KCC: technically Vaimes did participate, just didn’t vote, is that something you specifically think comes from a scum mindset more often/do you assess it based on player?
I feel like this is a bit premature, actually. It's possible that 'exactly one' just didn't occur to him.
I make this point because I'm getting newb vibes from him, so it's certainly more possible than not that he didn't think it through when he answered that. I therefore think that this is not a good reason to townread him at this stage. @Cantrip: You can weigh in here too since you made the same point.
Killjoy, Emiko mentioned their experience, didn't sound like a complete noob. Even as a noob, though, I wouldn't expect inexperienced scum to put forth a "1 in x/y/z" and then upon cross-examination go "or could be zero". Newer scum from what I've observed are more likely to amp up the possibilities of others being scummy than not unless they're receiving flak. Not a guaranteed read for me, but Emiko's continuing to make ok-ish-to-good posts.
He basically says that he would expect a wolf to say "1 or more" rather than "1, maybe none" in the general case unless they had multiple partners in the group.
It does seem to contain the implicit assumption that if [emiko is a wolf] then [she would not say that about a grouping of mostly villagers]. But any random group of three players has good odds of being 0 to 1 wolves so evidence to the contrary I don't really see why you would assume she has two+ partners there when considering whether she's a wolf.
I guess I disagree with Cantrip's read here (Emiko's statement is NAI in a vacuum) but the only wolf mindset I see is... it's possible that he wanted to put Emiko in his pocket and that when he got questioned for it he didn't think he could safely walk it back so he doubled down instead of saying "oh, you're right, it was NAI, my bad" and that's why we got this weird "up to 1 is more villagery in a vacuum than more than 1" because assuming there are multiple wolves in a list of three players just feels unbelievable?
Yes I know tom said this wasn't why he thought cantrip was a wolf, but I wanted to step back and see if it was a thing for myself. I guess it could be but it's not a slam dunk by any stretch.
"up to one" - I haven't put any thought into it, no. But somebody's logic is off. shadow's or yours maybe, where you say that "exactly one" would be scummy, because it encourages chain lynching, but "up to one" doesn't—despite there not really being any less chain lynching potential there. I can't ask Shadow but I can ask you: why is "up to one" NOT a scum response?
(side note that silver asked a good question about it being a walkback)
((side note that i don't think anybody asked WHY emiko had that opinion))
I didn't say that saying "exactly one" would be scummy. I said that I would expect scum to be more likely to say "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". The former response pushes the likelihood that at least one is scum (hence, on at least a subconscious level, encouraging lunching all three to find the scum among them), while the latter does absolutely nothing (afaict) to further a scum agenda. Show me how "1, possibly 0" furthers Emiko's agenda as scum and I'll reconsider. (Yes, it could have been a walkback, but I didn't get that impression.)
Here's (part of) the megs thing tom wanted me to look at... I don't really think this is factoring into any wolf read Cantrip may or may not have on megs, though, Cantrip asked megs if he ever figured out what he thought was fishy about the "up to one" business. It does feel a bit defensive of his position here but I don't really think he's attacking megs over it or using it to push him, just saying "I think saying 1, possibly 0 doesn't help her if she's a wolf: change my mind".
I don't really think it's a thing that makes him a wolf, either, though there's this weird... Cantrip's megs read in general thing, as Rhand pointed out, where he went from thinking he's a wolf to isoing him and asking him questions to then telling me he wasn't sure where he was going with the iso yet. I've kind of been waiting to say it because I wanted to see where Cantrip ended up after I told him that if he's partners with KK I'd suspect him if he came out swinging for megs, but he was like, interacting with me weirdly the whole time he was talking to megs at the same time. Felt like he was simultaneously expecting me to do something and then when I didn't do what he wanted me to do he would just say "fair, I asked you because of [reason]" and then go on to something else.
And, okay, KK needs to vote one of his counterwagons to make it viable and not self vote, please, though given megs already took cantrip out of contention to put him at L-1 it might be too late for that
I'll be here for EoD, I'm considering cantrip but not megs right now.
Yeah, but your cantrip case is seriously weak. Lynch me and analyze interactions (I’m pretty sure I have a lot more than cantrip)
I don’t like Megs stance on this. Either of us could be scum separately or we could both be scum? Looks like scum looking for chain mislynches to me. And he seems to be using his previous statements of Tom pocketing him to jump on the wagon with no reasoning of his own. Plus, his stance on me has gone from waffling to certain out of nowhere. I still don’t think it’s worth switching wagons though.
I want people to look closer at Vaimes after my flip. I think he’s acting very different since his argument with Last and I don’t like it.
vote KoolKoal
what are you doing, seriously if you are town this isnt going to further your win con
Struggling to see any town motivation to self vote at 4-3-3 when you scumread one of the 3s and seemingly no townread on the other but im listening KK
I struggle to see any motivation from either alignment, given if he is a wolf he can use anything to justify voting anyone else, but just throws in the towel?
I’m not scumreading him. I don’t like his position on this wagon. I find that move suspicious.
I’m not promoting poor town play just to save my life. I still see myself as the correct lynch because of the deadline. Nothing short of 100% confirmed scum will change that this late in the Day.
this is the exact wolf play my brother played in Game of Thrones mafia kek, "Im not gunna place my vote on someone I dont think is a wolf, to save myself the only confirmed person in my eyes"
secondly you are wrong, there is always time
feeling more town on Rhand than before. I found myself unconsciously talking to him like wrong town in our back and forth earlier. I think that means something.
Vaimes reads very uncomfortable and scared to me since his whole “overreacting” argument with Rhand. I also feel like he’s the most suspicious vote on the fast Rhand wagon earlier. He’s way less active atm too.
Vezok, I feel like vez taking such a strong stance on me when I’m basically the guaranteed to flip reads as either town playing poorly or smart scum trying to be one note. More likely the former. I hate how vez has the least posts in the game without ever being v/la, and that’s probably been influencing my read in the past.
@Last: Excuse me, but my wincon says the town lynches the scum. I am in no way essential. I played to survive until it was not optimal. There is no reason to farm more info for the scum team by rushing out claims at this point.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
There’s no deadline extension, so there’s clearly not enough time, nor are any of my scum reads strong enough to be worth pushing over me.
Who else is there? Megs I’m still pretty bull on besides the thing I pointed out. His wagon stance isn’t a strong piece of evidence though. They could just be his natural town thoughts that happen to have a negative interpretation.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
lol I didn't even realize Cantrip was still voting Megs that whole time he was saying he didn't know where he was going with the iso
Vote: Cantripmancer
IF: [KK is town], THEN: [KCC, vezok, wisp probably town] [Megs maybe town] [Rhand most plausible wolf on wagon]
1-2 in [Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes]
0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)
If KK and Megs are both town, tom trying to wagon Cantrip in the 11th hour doesn't make much sense as a wolf. Which is kind of where I'm at right now I guess. Still hoping I was right earlier and KK is a hit but not at all convinced that it's actually true anymore. Easy game if it's just KK/tom/rhand though, I guess.
God I actually don't know what to say to that response, but ill try
"no"
that's not how this works, cause in this world we are still lynching a possible town who has his vote on himself, instead of being more confident in his own play to push elsewhere
Voting urself only does one thing gives wolves a reason to vote you with little fear of repercussion if you are town, in muddles the information we can gain
and you are essential, cause if you are town, we will be down one town player and their vote, so don't give me that
@Silver: it doesn’t feel like a walk back, but I’ll grant there’s not really much there to say either way.
Popping in to add that I would probably expect scum, when asked to clarify that question, would be more likely to go "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". Barring multiple buddies in Vaimes/Silver/KCC, I guess, but I agree with Shadow that it's a townie response and I like Emiko for it.
Because instead of saying exactly one, and locking that group down, he’s saying up to one, which has an entirely different connotation.
Exactly one is super useful for false clearing/chain lynching/whatever, whereas up to one reads more like someone making a genuine situation read.
@KCC: technically Vaimes did participate, just didn’t vote, is that something you specifically think comes from a scum mindset more often/do you assess it based on player?
I feel like this is a bit premature, actually. It's possible that 'exactly one' just didn't occur to him.
I make this point because I'm getting newb vibes from him, so it's certainly more possible than not that he didn't think it through when he answered that. I therefore think that this is not a good reason to townread him at this stage. @Cantrip: You can weigh in here too since you made the same point.
Killjoy, Emiko mentioned their experience, didn't sound like a complete noob. Even as a noob, though, I wouldn't expect inexperienced scum to put forth a "1 in x/y/z" and then upon cross-examination go "or could be zero". Newer scum from what I've observed are more likely to amp up the possibilities of others being scummy than not unless they're receiving flak. Not a guaranteed read for me, but Emiko's continuing to make ok-ish-to-good posts.
He basically says that he would expect a wolf to say "1 or more" rather than "1, maybe none" in the general case unless they had multiple partners in the group.
It does seem to contain the implicit assumption that if [emiko is a wolf] then [she would not say that about a grouping of mostly villagers]. But any random group of three players has good odds of being 0 to 1 wolves so evidence to the contrary I don't really see why you would assume she has two+ partners there when considering whether she's a wolf.
I guess I disagree with Cantrip's read here (Emiko's statement is NAI in a vacuum) but the only wolf mindset I see is... it's possible that he wanted to put Emiko in his pocket and that when he got questioned for it he didn't think he could safely walk it back so he doubled down instead of saying "oh, you're right, it was NAI, my bad" and that's why we got this weird "up to 1 is more villagery in a vacuum than more than 1" because assuming there are multiple wolves in a list of three players just feels unbelievable?
Yes I know tom said this wasn't why he thought cantrip was a wolf, but I wanted to step back and see if it was a thing for myself. I guess it could be but it's not a slam dunk by any stretch.
"up to one" - I haven't put any thought into it, no. But somebody's logic is off. shadow's or yours maybe, where you say that "exactly one" would be scummy, because it encourages chain lynching, but "up to one" doesn't—despite there not really being any less chain lynching potential there. I can't ask Shadow but I can ask you: why is "up to one" NOT a scum response?
(side note that silver asked a good question about it being a walkback)
((side note that i don't think anybody asked WHY emiko had that opinion))
I didn't say that saying "exactly one" would be scummy. I said that I would expect scum to be more likely to say "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". The former response pushes the likelihood that at least one is scum (hence, on at least a subconscious level, encouraging lunching all three to find the scum among them), while the latter does absolutely nothing (afaict) to further a scum agenda. Show me how "1, possibly 0" furthers Emiko's agenda as scum and I'll reconsider. (Yes, it could have been a walkback, but I didn't get that impression.)
Here's (part of) the megs thing tom wanted me to look at... I don't really think this is factoring into any wolf read Cantrip may or may not have on megs, though, Cantrip asked megs if he ever figured out what he thought was fishy about the "up to one" business. It does feel a bit defensive of his position here but I don't really think he's attacking megs over it or using it to push him, just saying "I think saying 1, possibly 0 doesn't help her if she's a wolf: change my mind".
I don't really think it's a thing that makes him a wolf, either, though there's this weird... Cantrip's megs read in general thing, as Rhand pointed out, where he went from thinking he's a wolf to isoing him and asking him questions to then telling me he wasn't sure where he was going with the iso yet. I've kind of been waiting to say it because I wanted to see where Cantrip ended up after I told him that if he's partners with KK I'd suspect him if he came out swinging for megs, but he was like, interacting with me weirdly the whole time he was talking to megs at the same time. Felt like he was simultaneously expecting me to do something and then when I didn't do what he wanted me to do he would just say "fair, I asked you because of [reason]" and then go on to something else.
And, okay, KK needs to vote one of his counterwagons to make it viable and not self vote, please, though given megs already took cantrip out of contention to put him at L-1 it might be too late for that
I'll be here for EoD, I'm considering cantrip but not megs right now.
to be honest it doesnt look like were very far apart here. At least in that we're looking at that chunk of cantrips posting and just finding something *wrong*
@Silver
[0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)]
explain this?
this whole case on Tom, and one little micro read changes everything?
in a world where Tom is a wolf, and KK is not a hit, what else would he be doing?
to answer that, there are many things honestly
but either way it doesnt mattter, KK always needs to die here from the way hes playing
11 hours left these wagons are officially the choices imo
Kk (4): vezok, Rhand, Kcc, Last
Megs (3): Cantrip, Kj, Vaimes
Cantrip (3): tom, Megs, emiko
tom (1): Silver
Not Voting (1): Kk
You think cantrip is town?
I guess youve aleeady weighed in on wagons carry on. Heres hoping for an active eod
Aorn light town on both and would choose based on whos voting them
Kk (4): vezok, Rhand, Kcc, Last
Sorry I don't have a lot of time. I'll be here for deadline, but I'm pretty busy.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
I feel like you are pointing things that were mentioned in the modern mafia spec chat. (For anybody who wants to follow the discussion I'm about to have, i recommend control+fing "reread." While you're in there, try "saving," too.)
I have said in the past that I reread my own posts instead of taking notes. That is correct. I don't take notes when I play, so to make up for that I post a lot and try to point out things as I go. That way, later on, I can just ISO myself and see what's up.
Now, I think you were expecting to see something different out of that process than what it actually is. And because you aren't seeing what you thought you would see, you're coming to the conclusion that I am faking that process here and that i'm scum. Is that about right?
I bolded a few sections above. Here they are again:
Meg recently said to me that he typically posts his thoughts in such a way that he can ISO himself and kind of... relive the game through his eyes. I believe he literally said he uses that in lieu of notes.
He highlights suspicous things he's been doing, hasn't mentioned any real townie things he's done, but no longer seems interested in him.
Further, he likes KCC's catch on KK enough to justify a lynch, but doesn't remember what the catch actually was
I wanted to point these out because, to me, the second two statements support the first. To elaborate, with Vaimes I have in fact highlighted things he was doing that I thought were suspicious. But I didn't vote, no, and I dropped a lot of that because I was more interested in pursuing other leads. However, yeah, later in the game if I'm alive and able to reread myself (or, say, if somebody else rereads me? :)) I may see those posts and recall that yes, Vaimes made some posts I didn't like. That would prompt me to dig further into vaimes, and given the new context we have after flips I might find something useful.
My posts themselves are often immaterial. Like, sometimes I can just cold call scum behavior out of RVS, sure, but a lot of the time it's just "this argument doesn't make sense" or "i'm not sure what you're doing here" or whatever, and seeing that after a few flips can be enough to set me down the right path on somebody when I'm trying to narrow POE.
(related, don't forget that I was v/la for... almost a week, and the texture of the game changed in that time. it would be pretty silly to come back from that and just pick up where i left off from 8 pages earlier in the thread!)
With KK, I think this one is a bit more self-evident. You said "he posts instead of taking notes" and then are calling me out for not remembering something. Cool. I also dispute the sentence immediately after the quoted portion, where you say I couldn't be bothered to go look it up:
I'll admit having a weird memory when it comes to details, but you can't say I didn't go back and see what it was. Because i did.
>Where's him putting reads together to form a conclusion.
Again, I think you're looking for something that doesn't exist in the form you're looking for it in. But I promise, the thoughts are there. You can always ask for why I've done something. As you have seen several times this game I am happy to dump my thoughts into the thread about it when asked.
Like, regarding KK, I definitely voted (or, you know, expressed interest in voting) based on KCC's catch, but that's not the only reason I was interested in KK. Did I pull together a PBPA of KK posts and say "he's done X, Y, and Z, therefore he's scum?" no. but this, which I can only call shade: "He wants to lynch KK for reasons that are not his own, despite the fact that he should reasonably have some of his own" is not accurate.
This obviously is going to prompt you to ask why I was scumreading KK, and to that I'd say... I'd have to look back I can do that if it's really desired. But from memory, at the time I voted a lot of it was sort of subconscious tone reads? Somebody else has said he feels kind of manufactured and I agree with that assessment. He was also very self-aware with his answers about being scum.
After last Night's reread, which I executive-summarized in what I assume is my previous post before this one, I saw that KK was not solving, particularly when it comes to Cantrip.
Actually, the cantrip read you didn't talk about at all wrt me. You "don't get the read." What don't you get? Tom's piece or mine? or both? Happy to explain, just ask!
So again, that's how this works. I think you are just looking for things that aren't really how I do things.
anyway, to the broader question, I'm holding out hope for the CFD to Cantrip here, but I will 100% switch to KK if that doesn't get anywhere.
Deadline is 5PM for me (and it's almost 9AM now...?) so there's time.
I'm going to ISO Cantrip instead.
cantrip scum makes sense
kk scum makes sense
cantrip + kk scum makes sense.
The last few performers had seemed quite interesting so to say, but at least the next performer looks much more traditional when it comes to costumes and performance. Not that those performances were bad, but it's sometimes refreshing to see one without any weird gimmicks.
KoolKoal (4): vezokpiraka, Rhand, KittyCupCake, Lastwhisper
Megiddo (3): Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes
Cantripmancer (3): tomsloger, Megiddo, EmikoYuriemoto
tomsloger (1): Silvercrys3467
Not Voting (1): KoolKoal
V/LA: -
With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Deadline is on October 11th, 8.59 PM GMT (~7 h 10 min from this post)!
The biggest pro I saw in the half iso of Cantrip that I could read before I got called away is that he seems to try to form an opinion on everyone. I haven’t kept tabs on how often he interacts with who, but he seems to have questions for / talks about most everyone.
The biggest con would be his Megs read. His vote and his restatement later of why he voted seem not to match.
If someone could provide quotes for that, that would be awesome. The restatement was in a bigger post, I think as answer to KJ.
There was also something somewhere which made me think that if he’s scum, it has to be woth eother megs or Vezok.
I’m not sure if I’ll be back at my pc before deadline.
I'm not seeing it, and I'm a bit suspicious that this case didn't exist until 24 hours before deadline
I don’t like Megs stance on this. Either of us could be scum separately or we could both be scum? Looks like scum looking for chain mislynches to me. And he seems to be using his previous statements of Tom pocketing him to jump on the wagon with no reasoning of his own. Plus, his stance on me has gone from waffling to certain out of nowhere. I still don’t think it’s worth switching wagons though.
I want people to look closer at Vaimes after my flip. I think he’s acting very different since his argument with Last and I don’t like it.
vote KoolKoal
You think one of your counterwagons is scum?
Because my cantrip case makes him think hes less likely scum than you are?
I’m not promoting poor town play just to save my life. I still see myself as the correct lynch because of the deadline. Nothing short of 100% confirmed scum will change that this late in the Day.
I'm kind turning this whole cantrip thing over in my brain and it's like...
He basically says that he would expect a wolf to say "1 or more" rather than "1, maybe none" in the general case unless they had multiple partners in the group.
It does seem to contain the implicit assumption that if [emiko is a wolf] then [she would not say that about a grouping of mostly villagers]. But any random group of three players has good odds of being 0 to 1 wolves so evidence to the contrary I don't really see why you would assume she has two+ partners there when considering whether she's a wolf.
I guess I disagree with Cantrip's read here (Emiko's statement is NAI in a vacuum) but the only wolf mindset I see is... it's possible that he wanted to put Emiko in his pocket and that when he got questioned for it he didn't think he could safely walk it back so he doubled down instead of saying "oh, you're right, it was NAI, my bad" and that's why we got this weird "up to 1 is more villagery in a vacuum than more than 1" because assuming there are multiple wolves in a list of three players just feels unbelievable?
Yes I know tom said this wasn't why he thought cantrip was a wolf, but I wanted to step back and see if it was a thing for myself. I guess it could be but it's not a slam dunk by any stretch.
Here's (part of) the megs thing tom wanted me to look at... I don't really think this is factoring into any wolf read Cantrip may or may not have on megs, though, Cantrip asked megs if he ever figured out what he thought was fishy about the "up to one" business. It does feel a bit defensive of his position here but I don't really think he's attacking megs over it or using it to push him, just saying "I think saying 1, possibly 0 doesn't help her if she's a wolf: change my mind".
I don't really think it's a thing that makes him a wolf, either, though there's this weird... Cantrip's megs read in general thing, as Rhand pointed out, where he went from thinking he's a wolf to isoing him and asking him questions to then telling me he wasn't sure where he was going with the iso yet. I've kind of been waiting to say it because I wanted to see where Cantrip ended up after I told him that if he's partners with KK I'd suspect him if he came out swinging for megs, but he was like, interacting with me weirdly the whole time he was talking to megs at the same time. Felt like he was simultaneously expecting me to do something and then when I didn't do what he wanted me to do he would just say "fair, I asked you because of [reason]" and then go on to something else.
And, okay, KK needs to vote one of his counterwagons to make it viable and not self vote, please, though given megs already took cantrip out of contention to put him at L-1 it might be too late for that
I'll be here for EoD, I'm considering cantrip but not megs right now.
just Vaimes?
give me substantiation on your above statement re: vaimes. and maybe some other reads while you’re at it.
I struggle to see any motivation from either alignment, given if he is a wolf he can use anything to justify voting anyone else, but just throws in the towel?
sorry, no need to be too hasty. but yeah.
Catch all the lying scum, etc
secondly you are wrong, there is always time
where are the wolves at in your mind?
feeling more town on Rhand than before. I found myself unconsciously talking to him like wrong town in our back and forth earlier. I think that means something.
Vaimes reads very uncomfortable and scared to me since his whole “overreacting” argument with Rhand. I also feel like he’s the most suspicious vote on the fast Rhand wagon earlier. He’s way less active atm too.
Vezok, I feel like vez taking such a strong stance on me when I’m basically the guaranteed to flip reads as either town playing poorly or smart scum trying to be one note. More likely the former. I hate how vez has the least posts in the game without ever being v/la, and that’s probably been influencing my read in the past.
@Last: Excuse me, but my wincon says the town lynches the scum. I am in no way essential. I played to survive until it was not optimal. There is no reason to farm more info for the scum team by rushing out claims at this point.
Who else is there? Megs I’m still pretty bull on besides the thing I pointed out. His wagon stance isn’t a strong piece of evidence though. They could just be his natural town thoughts that happen to have a negative interpretation.
Self voting is against wincon in all but a few situations.
If youre town and know youre town everyone else has a better chance of flipping scum than you.
Any "im the best lynch" is just wrong. Certainly day 1.
So yeah. Vote someone else or keep playing to lose and get your wish I guess
Vote: Cantripmancer
IF: [KK is town], THEN: [KCC, vezok, wisp probably town] [Megs maybe town] [Rhand most plausible wolf on wagon]
1-2 in [Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes]
0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)
If KK and Megs are both town, tom trying to wagon Cantrip in the 11th hour doesn't make much sense as a wolf. Which is kind of where I'm at right now I guess. Still hoping I was right earlier and KK is a hit but not at all convinced that it's actually true anymore. Easy game if it's just KK/tom/rhand though, I guess.
"no"
that's not how this works, cause in this world we are still lynching a possible town who has his vote on himself, instead of being more confident in his own play to push elsewhere
Voting urself only does one thing gives wolves a reason to vote you with little fear of repercussion if you are town, in muddles the information we can gain
and you are essential, cause if you are town, we will be down one town player and their vote, so don't give me that
[0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)]
explain this?
this whole case on Tom, and one little micro read changes everything?
in a world where Tom is a wolf, and KK is not a hit, what else would he be doing?
to answer that, there are many things honestly
but either way it doesnt mattter, KK always needs to die here from the way hes playing