I feel like if shadow/tom/KCC doesn’t contain at least one scum, it means that ALL of the mafia stayed off of Azrael. Which is looking more likely possible than I would ever have thought.
EoD1 Fuwa wagon is scummy as hell and I wish we had used tom’s shot on one of them.
I feel like if shadow/tom/KCC doesn’t contain at least one scum, it means that ALL of the mafia stayed off of Azrael. Which is looking more likely possible than I would ever have thought.
EoD1 Fuwa wagon is scummy as hell and I wish we had used tom’s shot on one of them.
I'm pondering KCC as a bus, right now. Can you elaborate on your current reads, please?
Grape and Killjoy both need to eat lunch for interactions Day 1. KCC I'd put close behind for similar reasons. I'm seeing a lot of shenanigans that I've pulled or thought about pulling as scum from KCC. I respect that, but it only makes me more interested in a lynch. I'd lynch them all individually due to links to Az. If any of them flips scum, that only supports that team theory. MegBoy and Vaimes are still here because I still want to sort them. MegBoy is definitely scummier than Vaimes, but both slots are kinda limbo-neutral-y right now for me. MegBoy since I may be reading too far into lack of substance and Vaimes because I'm very on the fence on that slot right now. Cantrip and Shadow are around due to mechanical potential for Cantrip and because Shadow hasn't been cop-checked yet.
osie, KCC is like. Soft town for the moment. Megs is right, this game has a weird vibe. I don’t have any strong scumreads, but I have some minor bad feelings about shadow and tom.
Kinda waffling on Fuwaslot. I felt confident she was town after being Azrael’s CW, and the way he seemed not to have a care in the world when it looked like people were swapping to her, but then she did almost literally nothing outside of that and I’m eh.
I've read through the game at this point. I haven't seen every post, but I have gone through everyone's ISOs and I have a rough idea of the game and where it is. I'm pretty sold on that scumteam; while I think Grape is more directly the focus for today and a CFD wouldn't make sense, it would take a lot of convincing for me to believe that KCC isn't scum here. As for Killjoy, I think there's more that directly points there, but there's also more leeway based on level of play potential. Given the higher evidence on Killjoy, I'm still inclined to put him slightly higher in PoE, but only barely. All three are really quite scummy, and could be lynched in their own right regardless of each other's alignments.
I would likely only start to consider other worlds after seeing those three flip, unless I had some VERY compelling evidence.
I think the early 500s would be the spot where KCC decided to go for Az and try to link Chris to Az as a follow-up. Not long after, she also tries to hard-distance Az from Grape and Killjoy. She also had no scumread on Az before that point. It was a hard push on Az out of nowhere. The read didn't come out of anything. It just looks like they decided that Az was going down, so trying to map the game out in a favorable way in relation to Az was ideal.
#556 is where KCC suddenly became aggressive towards Az. I reread the pages around that too. The Az push there was out of nowhere. And Az's interactions with KCC? Let's check it out...
RVS vote.
Lack of thoughts on Fuwa and ick on formatting issue.
I do strongly agree that KCC looked like she was tying Chris to Az. She was kinda treating both like confirmed scum partners in a way that looked very TMI.
On the surface she's playing a pretty clean game, though, so I feel like there won't be support for going down that path anytime soon.
I do strongly agree that KCC looked like she was tying Chris to Az. She was kinda treating both like confirmed scum partners in a way that looked very TMI.
On the surface she's playing a pretty clean game, though, so I feel like there won't be support for going down that path anytime soon.
Yeah, I think we still go for Grape, then Killjoy, but I think KCC is really by far the best follow-up at that point.
I want to hear more from Wisp, Cantrip, and Megiddo, but the difference in likelihood between the KCC+Killjoy+Grape world and other worlds is drastic IMO.
It also explains away the weirdness of this game: Azrael was the scum powerhouse, but went down quickly, leading the others to scramble some. Grape and Killjoy tried to do their own things, and KCC was trying to push an Az bus to distance. It's the sort of play that would happen with the lack of coordination from Az dying.
I think the early 500s would be the spot where KCC decided to go for Az and try to link Chris to Az as a follow-up. Not long after, she also tries to hard-distance Az from Grape and Killjoy. She also had no scumread on Az before that point. It was a hard push on Az out of nowhere.
I think the early 500s would be the spot where KCC decided to go for Az and try to link Chris to Az as a follow-up. Not long after, she also tries to hard-distance Az from Grape and Killjoy. She also had no scumread on Az before that point. It was a hard push on Az out of nowhere.
Aww, come on, you didn't even ask!
-Go ahead, ask when I knew Az was scum
I'm guessing in pre-game, but sure, I'll humour this.
It was his first post. I'm guessing he (or possibly a buddy?)figured out who I was the same way Cantrip, KJ, and rhand easily did, but chose to try smearing my "anonymous" slot with the "what's your experience", and planned to follow it up with an attack on my RVS posts when I responded
In any case, the problem is, he waited too long, and didn't start his post until my account was already being merged. There's no way he didn't see who I was at that point, but continued to fake it anyway -because scumAz does nonsense like that. And townAz definitely would not have.
It didn't seem the most sporting way to catch someone to me, and I wasn't confident I could get a Lynch at that point anyway based on a slip like that, but I certainly wasn't going to avoid pushing a plausible wagon later
It was his first post. I'm guessing he (or possibly a buddy?)figured out who I was the same way Cantrip, KJ, and rhand easily did, but chose to try smearing my "anonymous" slot with the "what's your experience", and planned to follow it up with an attack on my RVS posts when I responded
In any case, the problem is, he waited too long, and didn't start his post until my account was already being merged. There's no way he didn't see who I was at that point, but continued to fake it anyway -because scumAz does nonsense like that. And townAz definitely would not have.
It didn't seem the most sporting way to catch someone to me, and I wasn't confident I could get a Lynch at that point anyway based on a slip like that, but I certainly wasn't going to avoid pushing a plausible wagon later
So, yeah, it wasn't "out of nowhere"
That doesn't match with Azrael's third post, 7 minutes later:
Nervous about rolling scum after such a long hiatus?
vote kcc. Welcome back.
Not to mention that BOTH of those posts were about 23 hours after your account was declared merged by Prophylaxis. Also, you didn't mention this throughout the thread. This doesn't really check out.
Osie did you really just pull a reverse DitF on me
I am... kind of shocked.
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That doesn't match with Azrael's third post, 7 minutes later:
...
Not to mention that BOTH of those posts were about 23 hours after your account was declared merged by Prophylaxis.
That's exactly it. He knew this before his first post. But made this fake set of posts to get in the experience/nervous attack on my RVS.
Also, you didn't mention this throughout the thread.
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We weren't ready to lynch yet, the town seemed easily distracted all day so I figured rather than stomp my feet about I'd help get the distraction out of the way quickly and push back closer to deadline when it actually mattered.
What town members in particular did you think were easily distracted?
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What town members in particular did you think were easily distracted?
Shadow springs to mind a bit, but it was just the whole game. Wagons jumping up to 5 votes in no time, and shifting completely elsewhere in hours. KJ, bee, you, Shadow, Az all so fast with little resolution. And then when we actually focused on Az, the discussion turned to let's start a competing wagon for fun! So, fine, whatever, but it might as well be on another likely scum
Osie did you really just pull a reverse DitF on me
I am... kind of shocked.
Hi, I'm Osie. I've been playing mafia online for two and a half years and analyzing human behavior in the context of traditional games for much longer than that.
I think they would have to, but I'm not confident. That said, modgaming here, but I think Proph would almost always include daychat. Why do you ask?
in your worldbuilding, kcc certainly didnt tell grape/kj az was a lost cause.
Or themself for that matter
To be fair, in this context, it was better for KCC to distance, then coordinate. KCC was the best positioned to distance. The best positioned to deepwolf.
I don't think your KCC assessment is on point mostly because of the vote for your slot. Thew psychology of scum doing that doesn't add up.
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@Tom: MegBoy has a chance to be scum. That slot has does essentially nothing all game. But Grape, KJ, and KCC are all openly scummy, and are all simple ties to Az. And one of them behaving differently, in particular (no offense intended to KJ and Grape) based on likely skill as a player, while the other two flailed more? It seems like we're letting an obvious team slip away at that point. Keep in mind, even if Cantrip turned out to be a scum nightvig that can act in the next two nights (I'm not considering a neutral because uggh), we're still looking at a likely 4 non-town to 12 town at the start (Proph won't say), which puts us at LyLO on Day 4 if neither Grape nor KJ were scum (which is unlikely). Anyways, I doubt that Cantrip is scum or that his role is that strong. Assuming that we aren't losing 2 townspeople every night, and assuming that even 2 out of 3 of the team I proposed is accurate, barring the sort of shenanigans that I KNOW that Proph doesn't like, we're still looking at a firm position.
I don't think your KCC assessment is on point mostly because of the vote for your slot. Thew psychology of scum doing that doesn't add up.
It does with Fuwa in the slot. As much as I want to defend Fuwa as a solid player, she is often low-activity and at times frustrates others with her posting style, making herself an easy mislunch target. If Fuwa was around more, then it wouldn't make sense, but given the circumstances, she was low-hanging fruit for KCC. If anything, it reinforces my thought of KCC as skilled scum attempting to deep-wolf. KCC knows that she has to make the lunches count, so why not go after the low-hanging fruit with whom people are likely to agree?
It was referring to your slot. I suppose I could also say Beegiddo or something else. People switching between Beeboy and Megiddo to refer to your slot doesn't really make sense for ease of communication, though.
I've had massive mafia burnout since my champs game ended (who thought 48 hour phases were a good idea?). Wagon on me seems full of activity related shrugs which is fair but an easy way for scum to hide.
Skimming the like 6 pages I hadn't read (Hi Osie!) Vaimes and meg had standout bad votes. I remember thinking Vaimes was town so I'm probably omgusing there but Megs can still be scum.
Intending to but not promising multiple hours of catch up tonight and over the weekend.
EBWODP: I also think that KCC had a realization moment that Az was a likely lost cause... Let me find the point where it felt like that.
This is just not accurate. I mean, at no point did it look like this was what was going on, nor does this theory even follow from what was happening in the thread. IF KCC thought Az was a "lost cause" then it wouldn't have made sense for KCC to switch off Az to Fuwa in the first place, and then, when it looked like Fuwa was a complete goner, switching back to Az.
KCC being a super-deep wolf is not completely out of the realm of possibility in the same way that no one is out of the realm of possibility, but he's like near the bottom of the list of likely candidates. I would put Vaimes much higher.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
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EoD1 Fuwa wagon is scummy as hell and I wish we had used tom’s shot on one of them.
Is there a RBer in scum? From public info this game, I'm seeing just a delayer.
I'm pondering KCC as a bus, right now. Can you elaborate on your current reads, please?
Grape and Killjoy both need to eat lunch for interactions Day 1. KCC I'd put close behind for similar reasons. I'm seeing a lot of shenanigans that I've pulled or thought about pulling as scum from KCC. I respect that, but it only makes me more interested in a lynch. I'd lynch them all individually due to links to Az. If any of them flips scum, that only supports that team theory. MegBoy and Vaimes are still here because I still want to sort them. MegBoy is definitely scummier than Vaimes, but both slots are kinda limbo-neutral-y right now for me. MegBoy since I may be reading too far into lack of substance and Vaimes because I'm very on the fence on that slot right now. Cantrip and Shadow are around due to mechanical potential for Cantrip and because Shadow hasn't been cop-checked yet.
Nvm just saw this. Okay, these are fair.
Even if it's just your 1shot, that's worth not playing into
On another note, you think KCC turbo bussed Az, had a very valid out to lynch your slot in the last hours of the day, and then still went back to Az?
I would likely only start to consider other worlds after seeing those three flip, unless I had some VERY compelling evidence.
I think KCC was flipping their vote around a lot to avoid appearance of obv-bussing.
#556 is where KCC suddenly became aggressive towards Az. I reread the pages around that too. The Az push there was out of nowhere. And Az's interactions with KCC? Let's check it out...
On the surface she's playing a pretty clean game, though, so I feel like there won't be support for going down that path anytime soon.
Yeah, I think we still go for Grape, then Killjoy, but I think KCC is really by far the best follow-up at that point.
It was a very superficial read I didn't feel like sharing slash getting flack for, but there it is.
Aww, come on, you didn't even ask!
-Go ahead, ask when I knew Az was scum
I'm guessing in pre-game, but sure, I'll humour this.
"When did you know that Az was scum?"
It was his first post. I'm guessing he (or possibly a buddy?)figured out who I was the same way Cantrip, KJ, and rhand easily did, but chose to try smearing my "anonymous" slot with the "what's your experience", and planned to follow it up with an attack on my RVS posts when I responded
In any case, the problem is, he waited too long, and didn't start his post until my account was already being merged. There's no way he didn't see who I was at that point, but continued to fake it anyway -because scumAz does nonsense like that. And townAz definitely would not have.
It didn't seem the most sporting way to catch someone to me, and I wasn't confident I could get a Lynch at that point anyway based on a slip like that, but I certainly wasn't going to avoid pushing a plausible wagon later
So, yeah, it wasn't "out of nowhere"
That doesn't match with Azrael's third post, 7 minutes later:
Not to mention that BOTH of those posts were about 23 hours after your account was declared merged by Prophylaxis. Also, you didn't mention this throughout the thread. This doesn't really check out.
I am... kind of shocked.
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That's exactly it. He knew this before his first post. But made this fake set of posts to get in the experience/nervous attack on my RVS.
And I didn't intend to.
Like, he was trying to pretend that he was reading through the first page and posting organically, but he wasn't, because the quotes are wrong
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We weren't ready to lynch yet, the town seemed easily distracted all day so I figured rather than stomp my feet about I'd help get the distraction out of the way quickly and push back closer to deadline when it actually mattered.
Fuwa bring high on my list anyway helped.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Shadow springs to mind a bit, but it was just the whole game. Wagons jumping up to 5 votes in no time, and shifting completely elsewhere in hours. KJ, bee, you, Shadow, Az all so fast with little resolution. And then when we actually focused on Az, the discussion turned to let's start a competing wagon for fun! So, fine, whatever, but it might as well be on another likely scum
Grape/kj/beeboy/fuwa
I guess that only really eliminates chris from my current POI...
God i really dont want to think potential deep wolves can it just be 3 of those 5?
Shadow/cantrip/kcc
I think they would have to, but I'm not confident. That said, modgaming here, but I think Proph would almost always include daychat. Why do you ask?
Or themself for that matter
Hi, I'm Osie. I've been playing mafia online for two and a half years and analyzing human behavior in the context of traditional games for much longer than that.
To be fair, in this context, it was better for KCC to distance, then coordinate. KCC was the best positioned to distance. The best positioned to deepwolf.
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2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
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2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
It does with Fuwa in the slot. As much as I want to defend Fuwa as a solid player, she is often low-activity and at times frustrates others with her posting style, making herself an easy mislunch target. If Fuwa was around more, then it wouldn't make sense, but given the circumstances, she was low-hanging fruit for KCC. If anything, it reinforces my thought of KCC as skilled scum attempting to deep-wolf. KCC knows that she has to make the lunches count, so why not go after the low-hanging fruit with whom people are likely to agree?
It was referring to your slot. I suppose I could also say Beegiddo or something else. People switching between Beeboy and Megiddo to refer to your slot doesn't really make sense for ease of communication, though.
pick a different nickname.
No idea what that's supposed to mean.
hi
I pretty much have the next two days off, so I'll do stuff tomorrow
Banana.
Where are the snows of yesteryear?
Skimming the like 6 pages I hadn't read (Hi Osie!) Vaimes and meg had standout bad votes. I remember thinking Vaimes was town so I'm probably omgusing there but Megs can still be scum.
Intending to but not promising multiple hours of catch up tonight and over the weekend.
I'll be free all day tomorrow though.
KCC being a super-deep wolf is not completely out of the realm of possibility in the same way that no one is out of the realm of possibility, but he's like near the bottom of the list of likely candidates. I would put Vaimes much higher.