30: Votes Rhand, interacts with me, Tom, Silver, and Grape. Only one that's even close to serious is with Grape.
32: Interacts with Shadow, humor involved. Shadow's response is spot-on. Possible this is theatre/soft-lobbing?
40: Says Grape's newer style isn't working for him.
41: Name drops Chris, but doesn't really comment on him.
44: Uses a lot of words to hedge on Grape, says he feels different from normal. Comment to Rhand feels more pockety than open-wolfy, imo.
51: Responds to Shin's question, asks if Shin's vote on Tom is real.
61: Responds to Tom's question on why Grape feels different, sorta works around the idea that Grape felt scummy before but doesn't now. Mild shade on Shin's ability (or effort).
69: Mild shades Shin, questions him again.
94: Responds to Tom's question on Grape, asks Tom if Tom can read Grape, tells Shadow his Grape question wasn't related just to this game.
140: Says Rhand is townier than Chris, likes Rhand's catch on Tubba's RB/JK comment, votes Tubba. Re-addresses Shin about his Tom vote. +town to Tubba.
146: Responds to Tubba, questions why Tom questioned him (LnG) but didn't question Tubba. Teams Tom/Chris/Shadow but says it's probably not that easy. More +town to Tubba. Mild tinfoil that LnG is well aware of the rule of 3 and Tom being the NK is partly to paint Chris/Shadow in worse light, but Tom was probably just killed because he's a good player.
147: Addresses me and Rhand, tries to paint Tubba scum if Tom flips scum...? -town to Tubba?
150: Hedges on Chris in response to pressure from Chris. Questions Tom, again intimates that Tubba's post should receive scrutiny (if LnG's post should).
152: Mild shade on Tubba.
153: Votes Tom "to bother him".
159: Responds to Tubba.
265: Responds to my question about Rhand, says if he was already reading Rhand as scum Rhand's leaping from Tubba to Shadow is something he'll have to think about. Pushes on Tom for defending Tubba, mentions that Chris might also do that.
273: Attacks Tom again for defending Tubba, shades Shadow, tries to tie Chris to Tom by asking why Chris didn't comment on Tom in his big post.
276: Tells Tom that Tom was defending Tubba by attacking Lng.
277: Pushes Chris to weigh in on Tom.
331: Looking at this in context, I can sorta see where Grape's coming from on his read of the whole "Will/Rhand/Shadow" thing, but I don't think it points to a scum!Shadow. I could see cases for "LnG coaching Will on making a bad read" or "LnG soft defending Rhand", but not "LnG saw Will being suspicious of Rhand for voting Shadow and felt the need to comment because Shadow's his buddy." He also says Tom and Shadow are impossible to lynch and need focus in later Days, and lowers the importance of his meta question to Grape.
356: Asks Silver why no one wants to lunch Riku. +town to Wisp. Sounds Tubba out on Chris not interacting with Tom.
887: Catch up post.
888: Never mind, self hammer.
891: Congratulates me.
898: Parting shot at Tom.
Takeaways:
• I don't feel like his interactions with Tubba are scum/scum. It sounds like he's sounding him out, but not in a "hey, want to go in this direction" kind of way. Tubba is town.
• I get an orbiting/satellite vibe from LnG on Chris; I think LnG was afraid of Chris, and I'm leaning toward "because Chris is town and a good player" more than "because Chris is his buddy and LnG is afraid of angering him/being bussed".
• Not a lot of interaction with Shin, but what is there felt like attacks. Lean town on Vaimes.
• Barely any interaction with Silver, but 356 makes me feel a little better on Silver because, similar to Tubba, it feels like LnG encouraging Silver to do the dirty work. Slight lean town on Silver.
• Barely any interaction with Riku/Wisp, either, but the one there is is +town to Wisp.
• Other than the joking around with Shadow at the start of the thread, not much from LnG to Shadow. Null to maybe slight scum lean.
• There's a LOT of interaction about Grape (which is expected, given that his question to Grape generated a lot of conversation), but not a lot with Grape. Possible that he offered up a "hot" read on buddy!Grape in his first post, then got tangled up in people focusing on that. I want to iso Grape.
• Lots of interactions with Rhand, RVS vote would be on a buddy, comment in 44 feels pockety, towns Rhand pretty heavily. I want to say that LnG asking a read of me and Rhand in 147 is indicative of Rhand being scum because I'm town, but it's possible that LnG just asked two town. I want to iso Rhand, too.
Sorry I'm moving so slow, but I'll plan on looking at Rhand, Grape, and Shadow next, maybe just a reread-skim with heavy attention paid to those three.
This is good.
I would change one thing though, there isn't a lot of interaction with Rhand. Rhand just was on the end of some of his more effortful posts.
I don't think LnGrrr interrupts his partner Will's process like that it's too... weird. It isn't even distancing, really, it's too uh. nuanced to be a partner interaction.
Waaaay more likely that, say, Rhand is his partner and he's answering for him to defend him. It could be a pocket maneuver, too, to make Rhand like him or something, but interrupting your partner there is several kinds of awkward.
I feel like I need to re-center on this game cause I am not really sure I agree with much of what people are saying about what Lng would and wouldn’t do, and I’m not sure if a week off just screwed with my grounding in this game or what.
I will try and do a reread of some key people in the next couple days.
@Chris: let’s say you’re town, why on earth would people calling you town be any indicator of them being town when literally you’ve shown that as town you can nail scum? Like, I don’t really think anyone in this playerlist has the balls as scum to come at town!chris. So I’m not buying it.
I there there is too much “scum!lng would definitely not do x” like would he interrupt a partner? Sure, why not? Maybe I just know there are very few things I wouldn’t do as scum, but even our weak scum players aren’t totally incompetent.
I really cannot tell disengaged from purposefully slippery here. I think it could be either.
I think the entire game is just not engaged right now. I know a lot of people have set me aside because of LnG but I've had a really glaring contraction of not believing Wisps claim but also just not even mentioning him in context of my scum read on Rhand and I realized it's because I don't believe his claim but I've come to an independent town read on him so I should probably start believing the claim? Idk.
Gah so much to respond to and on a phone right now :/
I’ll try to get my laptop open later.
I’m back at scumreading Grape. He would be reading my posts more closely if he was looking to catch scum in me. It’s mainly his tubba read that pings me: he says he’s agreeing with LW on tubba while it was me that pointed out that unalignment with Lngrrr.
He’s also not really trying to get me lynched. He just keeps repeating people should scumread me but doesn’t give real reasons why.
Not that sure about Cantrip anymore, his last post was good.
Wouldn't say I feel disengaged exactly, but I do feel like O have a pretty tenuous grasp on the facts and events of the game right now. Probably something to do with the fact a bunch of people saying "I don't agree with X" but won't really elaborate as to why or say what they would agree with.
Makes me doubt my own reads without giving me something concrete to actually push back against or mull over.
Like when I ask people questions about their reads and when I say stuff like "Grape and LnGrrr probably not aligned because of the way he pushed Grape's meta" people just don't really dig into why they disagree they just go "yeah I think he could do that with his partner". (Just an example of stuff that's been happening I'm not saying anyone literally said that).
It's like, yes, anything is possible, but do you think it's more likely than the alternative? You have to play the percentages otherwise you'll never get anywhere but to a paranoia induced lunch on someone who is otherwise villagery because "what if they're a wolf pulling the wool over our eyes and they coached LnGrrr to great interactions in a day chat that we don't even know if they have?"
I need a sounding board but I don't feel like I can bounce ideas off of any of you. Not because you aren't great players but because I don't trust you to be a villager, or you don't trust me to be a villager, or I'm not even sure we're reading the same game because we have such completely different conclusions and it feels like pulling teeth to get most of you to actually talk about them.
I think I'm the only player who has even posted a reads list with reasons at all recently so why don't we start there.
Silvercrys3467
Lastwhisper
Grape
Tubba
Vaimes
Chris
Rodemy
Cantrip
shadow
Rhand
I'm town.
Wisp is self resolving. This is only a controversial statement for Grape but he's townreading Wisp independently anyway now, I guess.
Grape is town because he reads villagery and is probably not aligned with LnGr. Because of how LnGr used Grape's meta to talk his way into the early game, it would be very strange if he picked a partner's meta to do that with.
Tubba is town because he also reads villagery, he's thinking deeply about the game and he had that weird LnGr interaction that probably isn't partners. It was posted on the last page, pretty sure, if you want to go read it I'm not quoting it on mobile lol.
Vaimes slanked most of D1 but Shinichi was ~okay and his posting toDay is immensely improved. Favorite post was when he came in after I voted him and tried to talk to me about how his team is trying to win, there's like a. Depth of thought there I don't really associate with wolf!Vaimes he's a lot more reactive as a wolf, I think? Been a while since I actually played against wf!Vaimes but that's my impression.
Chris's D1 still reads pretty villagery though his posting toDay has been pretty... blegh. I don't ~really~ think he's LnGr's partner except for how hard he tried to find a counterwagon but part of me just believes him when he said he felt the game was stagnant and he wanted to push other lunches to see what happened, partly because I felt the same way.
Still back and forth on Rodemy. Could have been a mindset slip for sure but I don't really think Will was playing like a new wolf partner to LnGr.
And honestly the other three are just, the players left over. I really like some of Cantrip's posts but he's a plausible LnGr partner and fits the "reasonable wolf" archetype to a T.
Shadow is in basically the same position as Cantrip, though there are fewer of his posts I like.
Rhand can be a wolf and a LnG partner probably.
So, yeah. This is my box. Hopefully two wolves are in it but I'd be shocked if at least one wasn't. If you disagree let's talk about it.
Silver I feel like you’re begrudged with your world view, and I think that bothers me more than the individual placements of your reads. You’ve leaned really heavily on the “fine town, lynch elsewhere” but at a certain point I’d expect you to have a real scum read or reasons other than not having a strong town lean.
Your reads on me/Cantrip/Rhand are built on the back of “could, possibly, probably” and just...no.
Your claim and my general feeling that you’re just town makes me not want to lynch you, but you’re play leaves a lot to be desired.
Like dig into rhand, cause I’m unconvinced he’s scum. I could be leaning too much on our early game thoughts lining up so well, but I also feel like he’s being pushed without much elaboration. Grape is shouting it from the rooftops, but not really showing the why of it.
Shadow, I feel like you know my meta probably better than just about anyone. Would you say that when I'm town I'm more likely to respond to compliments/praise with suspicion of the player praising me, or do complements tend to lead to me being pocketed? (Assuming the compliments/praise is natural/not pinging.)
Grape, you're right that LnG didn't interact much with Rhand, either.
Wisp, I have zero motivation to ask you questions given your self-resolving status.
Silver, I put forth the idea that LnG didn't intend his question to Grape to be anything more than the fluff he asked everyone else in his OP, but then didn't feel like he could drop it when he got attention for it. You think it's more likely that LnG saw the responses to that question and decided to run with it as his avenue of play?
Also, what Rhand posts/interactions do you feel are most indicative of probable partnership between Rhand and LnG?
@shadow: I mean, I'll probably iso Rhand soon but uh. From my vague recollection it isn't going to be a strong case or anything, mainly just going to be checking to make sure there isn't anything that makes me think he isn't a LnGr partner.
Like, for all three of you [Cantrip/shadow/Rhand] it isn't. "This player actively did a bunch of wolfy things and here's what they did, this is a case, and that's why they could be a wolf" it's just, like, "these players have been less villagery than the other players and/or there's nothing that actively makes me believe they can't be LnGr's partners." It's a negative space read created by LnGr's interactions with other players.
I disliked Rhand's D1 more than you and Cantrip's, yeah, but it's not like... a thing I believe strongly because I haven't really found any mindset slips or reasons to make me actively think he's wolfing. Just a bunch of things I didn't really understand and I feel like he's probably less sloppy as a wolf so it's all just, ????? to me.
You can expect me to have strong wolf reads all day but it doesn't really work like that. We've only had one major wagon with no serious counterwagon, one night's worth of actions, and the flipped wolf has less than two pages of content.
Like, between this bit and your thing where you pushed me to read you earlier I feel like you think my reads are bad because you can't argue against my read on you directly.
But even if I had a secret wolf case on you (I don't), I wouldn't really want to hear arguments against my case on you, from you, anyway.
If you're a wolf your honeyed words are full of lies and you're more than capable of talking your way out of any case I present against you as either alignment.
If you're a villager and you think the box is wrong, find my bad town read(s) and talk to me about them instead of trying to make me force a read on you that I don't have so you can tell me why you're a villager.
@Cantrip: Sort of? Like, sure it might have started as fluff that he elaborated on a bit because he didn't feel safe dropping it but just the way he was talking about it... feels more "real" like he was honestly curious about Grape's playstyle change and it just feels awkward to talk to/about a partner's meta like that if that makes sense.
I mean, he intentionally chose Grape's meta as a piece of fluff to open the game with and that's a thing he picks if Grape is a villager more often than when Grape is a partner. Besides his apparent reticence to interact with partners in general, it opens Grape up to a lot of scrutiny so it's "safe" if Grape is a villager but has red flags all over it if he's a partner.
I don't know that there are any Rhand/LnGr interactions that feel especially partnery just that none of them I remember made me believe they aren't aligned. But I'll let you know what I find when I do the Rhand iso ~later since I'll at least cross reference LnGr's iso when I do that.
If this is for me, I caught you in Trigger Happy Havoc (well, your whole team practically except Huntzilla directly after the mass claim rofl) however long ago that was. Also I spectate a lot (here and DLP both). Wouldn't point to any games in particular, though I guess I could probably go digging for them. Just my impression over however many spectated games.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So I figured after Lng came and gone through his v/la window that he was scum who just had no real counterpoint to everything that was going on, which is a boring and uninformative way to end day one. Instead I think we've got some good information based off me forcing people to do things and to take stances, which can be examined. I think anyone who knows my game and is throwing any shade my way on how I handled the Lng situation is highly suspect as Tom spoke true yesterday when he said I would just have bussed the unholy living hell out of Lng and called it a successful day. Wisp is not a very talented town player from my experience and he doesn't know me THAT well so I am more willing to think he is misguided town who doesn't understand my thinking process as scum as opposed to Shadow, who in no way should be thinking of me on a first level like he has been doing. I also note, Shadow, your "man no scum would ever have the balls to go after you oh look what a coincidence I am going after you." I was just mislynched by Rodemy in my last town game, so clearly someone in this game had the balls to go after me and do so successfully. This is a bit of a warped perception of my reputation. I am fearsome but scum can take shots at me.
However that wasn't quite what I was saying. I was just saying that people who actively are showing good progression on a town read of me are very likely town to me, not that people suspecting me must be scum. There are also several people who haven't really commented on me. When I said that I was looking at Cantripmancer and Silver, which firms my day 1 reads of both of them as town.
Vaimes with a ... strange swipe at me when he talks about huffing and puffing. This is, really, the first real substantive post of day 2 between my trip to chicago and recovering from the traveling yesterday. What I did day one was prod people to develop reads instead of just accepting the gift wrapped scum who just did nothing for over a week. Like in terms of lynching Lng in and of itself no one alive gets any credit whatsoever. He was a corpse walking at a certain point and I'd be horribly shocked if neither of his scum buddies ended up on him, and that's independent of other reads.
But also, using my reads of players I am left with Shadow/Rodemy as the people who can possibly be scum on Lng and I see no worlds where scum didn't sink their teeth into Lng.
I will, in fact, hard pass on 2/4 of Rhand, Tubba, Cantrip, Grapecruit is scum. Maybe 1. Or maybe it's just Rodemy going for epic bus credit.
Shadow is, frankly, not playing like a member of town who knows my meta like he does. I am extremely self aware, it is why I like to make days about me because it enables me to better reflect back onto others. Lng put scum in a bad spot, and Shadow is cracking I am pretty sure.
I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate day one yet, but at present I don't feel the need to.
##vote: Shadow
Anyway with only two scum remaining out of ten players it gives me a 2/9 odds of lynching scu
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang) 2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer 2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator) 2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia 2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational 2015 - Best Town Player 2015 - Best Mafia Player 2015 - Best Overall Player
Anyway with only two scum remaining out of ten players it gives me a 2/9 odds of lynching scum but with the number of solid town reads I have I think this is a fine place to start.
PS Wisp please stop.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang) 2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer 2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator) 2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia 2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational 2015 - Best Town Player 2015 - Best Mafia Player 2015 - Best Overall Player
Oh and @Cantrip: Lngrrr and me have been using the same RVS vote for about 5 games or so now. In all combinations of alignments. Totally NAI. And I’m sure Grape knows that, which is a huge point against him.
Hi Chris, come at me. Problem is that I do know your meta, and you specifically try to bus in such a way that your buddies still don’t get lynched, which makes me think you just couldn’t decide with Lng.
In what world where you’re town does scum!me expect to actually mislynch you?
@Rhand: around the same time on day one we both had very similar thoughts on Chris and his positioning on Shin; you pointed it out at the time.
plus idk how he thinks I'm solving the game, just feels like TMI, I haven't done anything that nearly compares to my other town games where I plastered my voice all over the thread
Grape, how did LnG know you thought people haven't been reading you as townie recently?
I've been grousing about it a bit. I think some in GoT and more in it's postgame. It's frustrating because I haven't been able to generate a non mechanical, non pocket town read in a while.
Also how does LnG not interacting with Rhand much change your analysis?
@Tubba but this Rhand song is the jam of the summer.
@Silver I'd love to talk to you about Rhand when you finish that ISO. Till then what do you think of Chris' shadow push? I know you like the vote but the content of the push itself. What do you make of it?
@Grape: I'm not super excited about the thrust of the push itself, I guess, since Chris is basing it on shadow's meta read and I don't have a ton of Chris meta so it's hard to say which of them is "right".
Don't think I'd really describe shadow as "cracking" either way, though.
I have a tinfoil that Chris is a wolf playing his ass off but I'm not really entertaining it right now. We're pretty far ahead and if he's a wolf he probably has another partner we can lunch anyway.
Silver that is not valid. Tom said I bus there and Tom knows me very well. Also you are welcome to any of my scum history where I can safely say, although my town and scum games overlap, you will have never seen me do what I do with Lng. Shadow knows better, Shadow has followed my career here closely.
In fact I will bet my game life Shadow is scum who is trying to WIFOM the whole "no way does scum ever attack Chris here!" angle.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang) 2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer 2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator) 2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia 2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational 2015 - Best Town Player 2015 - Best Mafia Player 2015 - Best Overall Player
I'm saying I don't know if it's valid or not. I ~think you believe it and I'm not sure if shadow does or not right now. Think you're town and shadow has a lot of wolf equity just by virtue of not being as townie as other players, just not super satisfied with the reason you're voting him because I don't have the context to decide if it's valid or not.
Yes, if you're right that you wouldn't actively counterwagon a dead fish partner as a wolf and shadow knows that it's A Thing but I don't know enough about your history together to really make a judgment. It's been a while since you played here pretty actively so I'm not even sure what history the two of you could have unless it happened off-site or shadow is secretly a gimmick who used to play here before I started.
Like, to my knowledge you've only been in a few games together (and Game of Thrones which he hosted) and I'm not sure how knowledgeable he ought to be about your meta. Ironically, even if I take your self meta at face value without that bit of it the actual thrust of the case is... meh.
If you'd like you can pull links to the games shadow was in with you where you think he should know you would throw LnGr under the bus and I'll give them a peek, but I don't have a ton of non-mobile time to be digging through your collective meta to figure out how familiar you should be with each other.
I'm happy with the vote, and I believe you believe the reason, but the reason is something specific to you that doesn't really do anything for me.
He is stipulating to knowing my meta and then he acts like I couldnt decide lol. If i am this active i make clear choices as either alignment.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang) 2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer 2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator) 2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia 2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational 2015 - Best Town Player 2015 - Best Mafia Player 2015 - Best Overall Player
Chris, I like to think I know you reasonably well, but it’s just inaccurate to say I followed your career from before I started here.
Give me a percentage you were on scum!lng day one at its highest point preflip. And why wouldn’t scum!you push outside of a buddy on day one if you knew you could get away with it?
@Grape: I'm not super excited about the thrust of the push itself, I guess, since Chris is basing it on shadow's meta read and I don't have a ton of Chris meta so it's hard to say which of them is "right".
Don't think I'd really describe shadow as "cracking" either way, though.
I have a tinfoil that Chris is a wolf playing his ass off but I'm not really entertaining it right now. We're pretty far ahead and if he's a wolf he probably has another partner we can lunch anyway.
I find there head to head here really boring. It's a lot of appeals to meta.
Shadow's assertion that he knows Chris' scum game feels weak. Pushing a buddy not to kill them and reluctantly pushing a lurker are not easy to tell apart and using that as a basis for a push is weak... But I can also believe that shadow believes it. Meta catches feel so good and Chris made a big deal about his play in GoT along those lines.
I don't think either is playing poorly I think it's just really hard to judge them based off this because I don't have the confidence in either of their metas that they seem to have of each others.
You felt enough of a push to make up part of my push being about your traditional Stuttgart rvs banter. Which to be clear was never mentioned by me as a reason you were scum.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
This is good.
I would change one thing though, there isn't a lot of interaction with Rhand. Rhand just was on the end of some of his more effortful posts.
I don't think LnGrrr interrupts his partner Will's process like that it's too... weird. It isn't even distancing, really, it's too uh. nuanced to be a partner interaction.
Waaaay more likely that, say, Rhand is his partner and he's answering for him to defend him. It could be a pocket maneuver, too, to make Rhand like him or something, but interrupting your partner there is several kinds of awkward.
I will try and do a reread of some key people in the next couple days.
@Chris: let’s say you’re town, why on earth would people calling you town be any indicator of them being town when literally you’ve shown that as town you can nail scum? Like, I don’t really think anyone in this playerlist has the balls as scum to come at town!chris. So I’m not buying it.
Maybe I came close when I was talking about the Grape unalignment but. Yeah.
If there are some unalignment things you agree with, which are your favorites?
I think the entire game is just not engaged right now. I know a lot of people have set me aside because of LnG but I've had a really glaring contraction of not believing Wisps claim but also just not even mentioning him in context of my scum read on Rhand and I realized it's because I don't believe his claim but I've come to an independent town read on him so I should probably start believing the claim? Idk.
will probably reread Rhand tomorrow for Grape
and people should ask me questions
I’ll try to get my laptop open later.
I’m back at scumreading Grape. He would be reading my posts more closely if he was looking to catch scum in me. It’s mainly his tubba read that pings me: he says he’s agreeing with LW on tubba while it was me that pointed out that unalignment with Lngrrr.
He’s also not really trying to get me lynched. He just keeps repeating people should scumread me but doesn’t give real reasons why.
Not that sure about Cantrip anymore, his last post was good.
vote Grape
Makes me doubt my own reads without giving me something concrete to actually push back against or mull over.
It's like, yes, anything is possible, but do you think it's more likely than the alternative? You have to play the percentages otherwise you'll never get anywhere but to a paranoia induced lunch on someone who is otherwise villagery because "what if they're a wolf pulling the wool over our eyes and they coached LnGrrr to great interactions in a day chat that we don't even know if they have?"
I need a sounding board but I don't feel like I can bounce ideas off of any of you. Not because you aren't great players but because I don't trust you to be a villager, or you don't trust me to be a villager, or I'm not even sure we're reading the same game because we have such completely different conclusions and it feels like pulling teeth to get most of you to actually talk about them.
I think I'm the only player who has even posted a reads list with reasons at all recently so why don't we start there.
Silvercrys3467
Lastwhisper
Grape
Tubba
Vaimes
Chris
Rodemy
Cantrip
shadow
Rhand
I'm town.
Wisp is self resolving. This is only a controversial statement for Grape but he's townreading Wisp independently anyway now, I guess.
Grape is town because he reads villagery and is probably not aligned with LnGr. Because of how LnGr used Grape's meta to talk his way into the early game, it would be very strange if he picked a partner's meta to do that with.
Tubba is town because he also reads villagery, he's thinking deeply about the game and he had that weird LnGr interaction that probably isn't partners. It was posted on the last page, pretty sure, if you want to go read it I'm not quoting it on mobile lol.
Vaimes slanked most of D1 but Shinichi was ~okay and his posting toDay is immensely improved. Favorite post was when he came in after I voted him and tried to talk to me about how his team is trying to win, there's like a. Depth of thought there I don't really associate with wolf!Vaimes he's a lot more reactive as a wolf, I think? Been a while since I actually played against wf!Vaimes but that's my impression.
Chris's D1 still reads pretty villagery though his posting toDay has been pretty... blegh. I don't ~really~ think he's LnGr's partner except for how hard he tried to find a counterwagon but part of me just believes him when he said he felt the game was stagnant and he wanted to push other lunches to see what happened, partly because I felt the same way.
Still back and forth on Rodemy. Could have been a mindset slip for sure but I don't really think Will was playing like a new wolf partner to LnGr.
And honestly the other three are just, the players left over. I really like some of Cantrip's posts but he's a plausible LnGr partner and fits the "reasonable wolf" archetype to a T.
Shadow is in basically the same position as Cantrip, though there are fewer of his posts I like.
Rhand can be a wolf and a LnG partner probably.
So, yeah. This is my box. Hopefully two wolves are in it but I'd be shocked if at least one wasn't. If you disagree let's talk about it.
Your reads on me/Cantrip/Rhand are built on the back of “could, possibly, probably” and just...no.
Your claim and my general feeling that you’re just town makes me not want to lynch you, but you’re play leaves a lot to be desired.
Like dig into rhand, cause I’m unconvinced he’s scum. I could be leaning too much on our early game thoughts lining up so well, but I also feel like he’s being pushed without much elaboration. Grape is shouting it from the rooftops, but not really showing the why of it.
Grape, you're right that LnG didn't interact much with Rhand, either.
Wisp, I have zero motivation to ask you questions given your self-resolving status.
Silver, I put forth the idea that LnG didn't intend his question to Grape to be anything more than the fluff he asked everyone else in his OP, but then didn't feel like he could drop it when he got attention for it. You think it's more likely that LnG saw the responses to that question and decided to run with it as his avenue of play?
Also, what Rhand posts/interactions do you feel are most indicative of probable partnership between Rhand and LnG?
The more Chris huffs and puffs and blows nothing down, the more I want that to die tbh. I’m at like a 3/10 on him with 10 being die scum die.
Silver is eh, also a decent candidate for the Reasonable Wolf.
Feels like Rhand’s just been majority slotted as scum again (shocking) and it smells a little.
Like, for all three of you [Cantrip/shadow/Rhand] it isn't. "This player actively did a bunch of wolfy things and here's what they did, this is a case, and that's why they could be a wolf" it's just, like, "these players have been less villagery than the other players and/or there's nothing that actively makes me believe they can't be LnGr's partners." It's a negative space read created by LnGr's interactions with other players.
I disliked Rhand's D1 more than you and Cantrip's, yeah, but it's not like... a thing I believe strongly because I haven't really found any mindset slips or reasons to make me actively think he's wolfing. Just a bunch of things I didn't really understand and I feel like he's probably less sloppy as a wolf so it's all just, ????? to me.
You can expect me to have strong wolf reads all day but it doesn't really work like that. We've only had one major wagon with no serious counterwagon, one night's worth of actions, and the flipped wolf has less than two pages of content.
Like, between this bit and your thing where you pushed me to read you earlier I feel like you think my reads are bad because you can't argue against my read on you directly.
But even if I had a secret wolf case on you (I don't), I wouldn't really want to hear arguments against my case on you, from you, anyway.
If you're a wolf your honeyed words are full of lies and you're more than capable of talking your way out of any case I present against you as either alignment.
If you're a villager and you think the box is wrong, find my bad town read(s) and talk to me about them instead of trying to make me force a read on you that I don't have so you can tell me why you're a villager.
@Cantrip: Sort of? Like, sure it might have started as fluff that he elaborated on a bit because he didn't feel safe dropping it but just the way he was talking about it... feels more "real" like he was honestly curious about Grape's playstyle change and it just feels awkward to talk to/about a partner's meta like that if that makes sense.
I mean, he intentionally chose Grape's meta as a piece of fluff to open the game with and that's a thing he picks if Grape is a villager more often than when Grape is a partner. Besides his apparent reticence to interact with partners in general, it opens Grape up to a lot of scrutiny so it's "safe" if Grape is a villager but has red flags all over it if he's a partner.
I don't know that there are any Rhand/LnGr interactions that feel especially partnery just that none of them I remember made me believe they aren't aligned. But I'll let you know what I find when I do the Rhand iso ~later since I'll at least cross reference LnGr's iso when I do that.
Grapefruit21 (1) - Rhand (#1212)
Silvercrys3467 (1) - Rodemy (#1080)
Rhand (1) - Grapefruit (#1055)
Rodemy (1) - Vaimes (#1058)
Sir Chris (1) - shadowlancerx (#1146)
Not Voting: Cantripmancer, Sir Chris, Tubba Fett, Silvercrys3467, Lastwhisper
Family reunion, phone posting only. If I feel like this game is getting in the way of time with my relatives, I’ll replace.
I apologize, I didn’t think this far ahead when I first replaced in.
So I figured after Lng came and gone through his v/la window that he was scum who just had no real counterpoint to everything that was going on, which is a boring and uninformative way to end day one. Instead I think we've got some good information based off me forcing people to do things and to take stances, which can be examined. I think anyone who knows my game and is throwing any shade my way on how I handled the Lng situation is highly suspect as Tom spoke true yesterday when he said I would just have bussed the unholy living hell out of Lng and called it a successful day. Wisp is not a very talented town player from my experience and he doesn't know me THAT well so I am more willing to think he is misguided town who doesn't understand my thinking process as scum as opposed to Shadow, who in no way should be thinking of me on a first level like he has been doing. I also note, Shadow, your "man no scum would ever have the balls to go after you oh look what a coincidence I am going after you." I was just mislynched by Rodemy in my last town game, so clearly someone in this game had the balls to go after me and do so successfully. This is a bit of a warped perception of my reputation. I am fearsome but scum can take shots at me.
However that wasn't quite what I was saying. I was just saying that people who actively are showing good progression on a town read of me are very likely town to me, not that people suspecting me must be scum. There are also several people who haven't really commented on me. When I said that I was looking at Cantripmancer and Silver, which firms my day 1 reads of both of them as town.
Vaimes with a ... strange swipe at me when he talks about huffing and puffing. This is, really, the first real substantive post of day 2 between my trip to chicago and recovering from the traveling yesterday. What I did day one was prod people to develop reads instead of just accepting the gift wrapped scum who just did nothing for over a week. Like in terms of lynching Lng in and of itself no one alive gets any credit whatsoever. He was a corpse walking at a certain point and I'd be horribly shocked if neither of his scum buddies ended up on him, and that's independent of other reads.
But also, using my reads of players I am left with Shadow/Rodemy as the people who can possibly be scum on Lng and I see no worlds where scum didn't sink their teeth into Lng.
I will, in fact, hard pass on 2/4 of Rhand, Tubba, Cantrip, Grapecruit is scum. Maybe 1. Or maybe it's just Rodemy going for epic bus credit.
Shadow is, frankly, not playing like a member of town who knows my meta like he does. I am extremely self aware, it is why I like to make days about me because it enables me to better reflect back onto others. Lng put scum in a bad spot, and Shadow is cracking I am pretty sure.
I haven't had a chance to re-evaluate day one yet, but at present I don't feel the need to.
##vote: Shadow
Anyway with only two scum remaining out of ten players it gives me a 2/9 odds of lynching scu
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Anyway with only two scum remaining out of ten players it gives me a 2/9 odds of lynching scum but with the number of solid town reads I have I think this is a fine place to start.
PS Wisp please stop.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
@Shadow: point me to where we mindmelded please? I’m talking about where you saw things I wrote that you agreed with, not the other way around.
Everyone else is kind of in limbo. I will work on fixing that.
In what world where you’re town does scum!me expect to actually mislynch you?
@Rhand: around the same time on day one we both had very similar thoughts on Chris and his positioning on Shin; you pointed it out at the time.
I guess it’s a point in your favor that you remembered that, but that’s the other way around mindmeld I was talking about.
how am I strong town read?
#pocketdenied
Also because, strictly speaking from my own experience, your scumgame is all bark and no bite.
A townread is not a pocket
I feel like you are trying to solve the game. It’s mainly gut, but I think what you are doing is hard to fake as scum.
Sing me a song that doesn’t have Rhand in it.
shadow/Rhand wagons seem good.
plus his reasoning for voting Lng was just to get him to claim
will keep my vote on Chris for now though
I've been grousing about it a bit. I think some in GoT and more in it's postgame. It's frustrating because I haven't been able to generate a non mechanical, non pocket town read in a while.
Also how does LnG not interacting with Rhand much change your analysis?
@Tubba but this Rhand song is the jam of the summer.
@Silver I'd love to talk to you about Rhand when you finish that ISO. Till then what do you think of Chris' shadow push? I know you like the vote but the content of the push itself. What do you make of it?
Don't think I'd really describe shadow as "cracking" either way, though.
I have a tinfoil that Chris is a wolf playing his ass off but I'm not really entertaining it right now. We're pretty far ahead and if he's a wolf he probably has another partner we can lunch anyway.
In fact I will bet my game life Shadow is scum who is trying to WIFOM the whole "no way does scum ever attack Chris here!" angle.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Yes, if you're right that you wouldn't actively counterwagon a dead fish partner as a wolf and shadow knows that it's A Thing but I don't know enough about your history together to really make a judgment. It's been a while since you played here pretty actively so I'm not even sure what history the two of you could have unless it happened off-site or shadow is secretly a gimmick who used to play here before I started.
Like, to my knowledge you've only been in a few games together (and Game of Thrones which he hosted) and I'm not sure how knowledgeable he ought to be about your meta. Ironically, even if I take your self meta at face value without that bit of it the actual thrust of the case is... meh.
If you'd like you can pull links to the games shadow was in with you where you think he should know you would throw LnGr under the bus and I'll give them a peek, but I don't have a ton of non-mobile time to be digging through your collective meta to figure out how familiar you should be with each other.
I'm happy with the vote, and I believe you believe the reason, but the reason is something specific to you that doesn't really do anything for me.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Give me a percentage you were on scum!lng day one at its highest point preflip. And why wouldn’t scum!you push outside of a buddy on day one if you knew you could get away with it?
I’m gonna do things later
I find there head to head here really boring. It's a lot of appeals to meta.
Shadow's assertion that he knows Chris' scum game feels weak. Pushing a buddy not to kill them and reluctantly pushing a lurker are not easy to tell apart and using that as a basis for a push is weak... But I can also believe that shadow believes it. Meta catches feel so good and Chris made a big deal about his play in GoT along those lines.
I don't think either is playing poorly I think it's just really hard to judge them based off this because I don't have the confidence in either of their metas that they seem to have of each others.
I’m not feeling a push though.
Really?
You felt enough of a push to make up part of my push being about your traditional Stuttgart rvs banter. Which to be clear was never mentioned by me as a reason you were scum.