I guess Rhand helps your wincon too, so another reason to leave him off the lynch.
@Vaimes, what do you think about Shin as the other lynch? I think if this game is over after toDay, we go down fighting together against Sir Chris And choosing Shin will pretty much ensure Chris is the lynch.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Lngr: I have two wincons: be part of the lynch of someone on the throne or survive longer than 3 people who had the throne.
The second wincon seems unattainable, which is why I want to lynch Vaimes over my other suspects.
3. Sir Chris
5. Shinichi
6. Rhand
7. Hunger
11. Gentleman Johnny
17. Killjoy
It feels like there should be one in Chris/GJ (probably not w/w), so any one of Shin/Hunger/GJ/KJ to go with Chris I'd be happy with (assuming you are sticking with your anti-north win con thing @LnG and thus eliminating Rhand).
I think tom has a point on LnG's ability being similar to a killing role. It's very similar to leashed vig shot in that he can just choose someone super towny and the other person is almost certainly getting voted. Not guaranteed because the other challenger could also choose someone who has been towny, but still mechanically it's similar to a modified vig shot.
Which does make xy slip closer to the scum side and also then moves chris closer to town side. I am sorta paranoid that Chris is town here and scum team is just open wolfing saying he is the for sure lynch.
Why didn't anyone else comment on this? Do you agree or disagree with this assessment and what do you think LnG's role says about the balance of the other claimed roles? Can we get that massclaim first before the champions are decided?
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
@tom, @Rhand I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Already liked cantrip for town, but pending some poking around at the posts relating to claim i think the way he used it is extremely in line with towncantrip just trying to get some reads on people with it, whereas i think hed do something flashier with a scum crier role.
I like rhands process to start the day as well. Have sort of just been... steadily feeling better about him ever since i tried to wagon him day 1 i think he might be one of my top towns pre reread
Don't think anyone else said anything super noteworthy yet, besides a Thing related to Another Thing from factional chat, but im keeping that in reserve for now
Is it time for this yet? I want all the possible information we can get before deciding on a lylo.
Hey Vaimes - What do you think about 3008 and Tom's point in regards to what it says about Chris v xy and to some extent GJ as well?
I suppose it's a little late now anyway since you have Chris locked in and if he is town scum probably wins, but there is still a chance to discuss it before a lynch happens.
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
@tom, @Rhand I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
That last post made by KJ, appeal though it was, still hit me. I cant see a world in which KJ gets voted over Chris, but I will KJ a reprieve from possibly being a deciding factor in a town loss.
I choose THOUSAND WINDS as my champion.
If Chris isn't scum, I will totally own this town loss.
That last post made by KJ, appeal though it was, still hit me. I cant see a world in which KJ gets voted over Chris, but I will KJ a reprieve from possibly being a deciding factor in a town loss.
I choose THOUSAND WINDS as my champion.
If Chris isn't scum, I will totally own this town loss.
Today, Winds works for a Lannister.
TPR vs a mostly scum read person lol
Interesting choices we got here, doesnt chris always get lynched though?
@ShadowMod: (But we still have until June 8th, 1200 MST as a deadline, correct?)
LnG, I'm a little disappointed/nervous. I feel like by choosing Winds over Rhand/KJ/GJ you ARE treating this as a directed vig shot at Chris rather than an opportunity to gain insight into people's choices. I still feel like your ability is probably more likely to be town than scum, but...this actually gives me pause. Why go this route?
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
@tom, @Rhand I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
The only way that can make sense is that both the scum kill and the extra kill are unblockable/there is no protection AND the extra kill is guaranteed to fire toNight. Winds claimed he doesn't have to fire. So either he is lying and has to or he is just scum and both their kills are unblockable, at least for toNight.
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
@tom, @Rhand I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
The only way that can make sense is that both the scum kill and the extra kill are unblockable/there is no protection AND the extra kill is guaranteed to fire toNight. Winds claimed he doesn't have to fire. So either he is lying and has to or he is just scum and both their kills are unblockable, at least for toNight.
why does it have to account for shots being stopped or not? Mylo is assuming that if we lynch town here the game has a possibility of ending at the end of the following night is all. It isnt stating that if we mislynch the game is just an auto loss, just that the possibility exists.
It's probably irrelevant anyways. Odds of Chris not being scum at this stage is super, super low. Dude is in full blown anti-spew and checked out of game a while back.
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. [b]Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?[/b]
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
[b]@tom, @Rhand[/b] I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
The only way that can make sense is that both the scum kill and the extra kill are unblockable/there is no protection AND the extra kill is guaranteed to fire toNight. Winds claimed he doesn't have to fire. So either he is lying and has to or he is just scum and both their kills are unblockable, at least for toNight.
why does it have to account for shots being stopped or not? Mylo is assuming that if we lynch town here the game has a possibility of ending at the end of the following night is all. It isnt stating that if we mislynch the game is just an auto loss, just that the possibility exists.
19: OP has Chris being mad at KJ for Death in the Family, calls KJ a "bad man" and votes him.
21: Response to DV's claim is to reinforce the idea that the claim is incomplete, but without any real digging at it. No real suspicion/questioning of DV here?
[multiple posts]: Pretty consistent calling of town!Wisp, several fluff posts. 161 & 163 in particular could be pocket attempts on Tom and Wisp. 186: Appropriate carryover suspicion of Rod.
Side Note: Found 330, breadcrumb by Tom that he knows there's a direwolf.
391: After a 3-day absence, blazes back into the thread defending LnG for his factionless claim, literally no comments on anything else. 424: Claims to have derailed the LnG wagon "single handedly"...yet the only two vote changes (DV and Wisp) occurred after Shadow "clarified" the rules on factions, so...interesting ego there. I don't think it's a reach to think that a scum!Chris could've made that claim expressly to be able to point back at himself "derailing" a town wagon. "Single handedly." 459: "No solid scum reads yet", but towns Tom.
601: Announces 6 day v/la. 682: Pops in during VLA to attack a single post of Shin's (664), pushes REALLY hard, says Shin is definitely scum, then says that Wisp not catching the same things make Wisp 100% scum too.
686 & 689: First solid town feels I've gotten, mostly in that he sounds like he really believes what he's pushing. Slight chance that if Chris flips scum, Shin is also scum (and Chris's conviction is TMI-based), but could come from town.
691/692: Encourages Tom to wagon Shin with him. 919: Chris, what "hilarious" results could there have been had you gained the throne? 962: Towns 1053 (possibly for the "let's tie the iron throne" plan), says he's going to tear Grape apart for Grape's defense of Shin.
971: Towns Grape for the audacity of going after Chris.
977-1155: Continues his push on Shin. Nothing really pinged me as scummy in any of these, but also nothing that felt blatantly townie. There were a few fluff posts directed at/about Rod. 1060 could be setting up domino lynches if Chris is buddies with Shin, maybe, but not sure I get that vibe.
1341: Towns Grape again because scum are rarely bold enough to attack Chris directly.
1346: Announces wisdom teeth surgery and goes V/LA.
I'm only halfway through or so, but I have to take a break and don't want to lose this.
That last post made by KJ, appeal though it was, still hit me. I cant see a world in which KJ gets voted over Chris, but I will KJ a reprieve from possibly being a deciding factor in a town loss.
I choose THOUSAND WINDS as my champion.
If Chris isn't scum, I will totally own this town loss.
Today, Winds works for a Lannister.
TPR vs a mostly scum read person lol
Interesting choices we got here, doesnt chris always get lynched though?
@ShadowMod: (But we still have until June 8th, 1200 MST as a deadline, correct?)
LnG, I'm a little disappointed/nervous. I feel like by choosing Winds over Rhand/KJ/GJ you ARE treating this as a directed vig shot at Chris rather than an opportunity to gain insight into people's choices. I still feel like your ability is probably more likely to be town than scum, but...this actually gives me pause. Why go this route?
Because if we don't hit scum toDay, the game is over. I am going down with my ship that Chris is scum. If I am wrong... well... sorry I guess. Let's say I picked Rhand or hunger or something, and it ends up a second scum. Then scum just hop on the scummiest one and wifom anyways.
Plus I am like 99% certain no one was going against Chris anyways. Also, KJ moved me with his plea.
Also, I can't remember the game right now, but I called out Chris as scum early and he did the same, "Good job for evaluating the game state" appeasement sort of thing. Didn't work that time though.
@ShadowMod: (But we still have until June 8th, 1200 MST as a deadline, correct?)
LnG, I'm a little disappointed/nervous. I feel like by choosing Winds over Rhand/KJ/GJ you ARE treating this as a directed vig shot at Chris rather than an opportunity to gain insight into people's choices. I still feel like your ability is probably more likely to be town than scum, but...this actually gives me pause. Why go this route?
Because if we don't hit scum toDay, the game is over. I am going down with my ship that Chris is scum. If I am wrong... well... sorry I guess. Let's say I picked Rhand or hunger or something, and it ends up a second scum. Then scum just hop on the scummiest one and wifom anyways.
Plus I am like 99% certain no one was going against Chris anyways. Also, KJ moved me with his plea.
Pretty sure KJ is just super likely to be a wolf this game, but it's kind of whatever - think Chris gets lynched over him regardless.
I'm gonna just be operating off of the understanding that Chris is scum this game since if he's not game could be over.
Vaimes, Cantrip, Tom are all super obviously town this game. Would bet game on those 3 reads even if I were a villager here, and for all intents and purposes, I am, since I don't know who the wolves are.
GJ/Chris are probably not w/w, so if Chris is a wolf here, GJ is clear.
Chris and X=Y are never w/w.
Chris and Shinichi are unlikely to be w/w, but it's not impossible. Chris pushed him pretty hard on d1, but then kinda drifted off of that read.
That leaves what, like.
Killjoy, LnGrrrR, Rhand, Hunger?
I think there's a decent chance the team is just Chris/Killjoy/Rhand/Hunger tbh.
@hunger i have zero memory of pirates other than my neighbor chat with rodemy. I tried talking to chris about that compared to whatever happened in targaryen chat but chris of course had no interest in solvey discourse
@ShadowMod: (But we still have until June 8th, 1200 MST as a deadline, correct?)
LnG, I'm a little disappointed/nervous. I feel like by choosing Winds over Rhand/KJ/GJ you ARE treating this as a directed vig shot at Chris rather than an opportunity to gain insight into people's choices. I still feel like your ability is probably more likely to be town than scum, but...this actually gives me pause. Why go this route?
Because if we don't hit scum toDay, the game is over. I am going down with my ship that Chris is scum. If I am wrong... well... sorry I guess. Let's say I picked Rhand or hunger or something, and it ends up a second scum. Then scum just hop on the scummiest one and wifom anyways.
Plus I am like 99% certain no one was going against Chris anyways. Also, KJ moved me with his plea.
Pretty sure KJ is just super likely to be a wolf this game, but it's kind of whatever - think Chris gets lynched over him regardless.
I'm gonna just be operating off of the understanding that Chris is scum this game since if he's not game could be over.
Vaimes, Cantrip, Tom are all super obviously town this game. Would bet game on those 3 reads even if I were a villager here, and for all intents and purposes, I am, since I don't know who the wolves are.
GJ/Chris are probably not w/w, so if Chris is a wolf here, GJ is clear.
Chris and X=Y are never w/w.
Chris and Shinichi are unlikely to be w/w, but it's not impossible. Chris pushed him pretty hard on d1, but then kinda drifted off of that read.
That leaves what, like.
Killjoy, LnGrrrR, Rhand, Hunger?
I think there's a decent chance the team is just Chris/Killjoy/Rhand/Hunger tbh.
for chris/shin...
If youve got some time you should look at the hydra game (idr game number rn, but i was with johnny, newcomb with gh, chris was scum and dunked hard with me on his partner (RE hydra) and id like to see you compare that bus to a potential shinichi one
”That’s what I do, I drink and I know things.”
-Tyrion Lannister
Sir Chris (2): Thousand_Winds, LnGrrrR
Thousand_Winds (0):
Not Voting (10): Killjoy, Hunger, Cantripmancer, Gentleman Johnny, XequalsY, tomsloger, Rhand, Vaimes, Shinichi, Sir Chris
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is June 8th at 1200 MST.
A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
Like im probably just killing chris here but i definitely wanted to read more from him/x=y/johnny first
Guess its fairly out of my hands and i just dont believe scum has an every night extra kill so winds isnt...
I almost picked you as my champion
Honestly, I expected a but more conversation, but like usual this game, everyone is kinda like, "Bleh, whatever". So if people don't want to debate or champion anyone, might as well make it one sided.
It's probably irrelevant anyways. Odds of Chris not being scum at this stage is super, super low. Dude is in full blown anti-spew and checked out of game a while back.
Yeah, you are probably correct. It makes the most sense with his behavior for sure. Just trying to cover all bases and make sure we aren't overlooking anything. Mechanically it definitely could make sense to be xy. Or neither really.
@everyone - my theory on the mylo situation
I wanted to see the mass claim finish out to see something, but it probably doesn't matter because scum probably wouldn't claim it anyway. And that's that the scum team has a guaranteed way to put scum on the throne which makes their factional kill unblockable which accounts for the inevitable mylo situation and why shadow wouldn't have accounted for it in the beginning of the game because the throne protection would likely be inactive at the state in the game in which it should matter. But since every single kill and lynch went this way it created this game state that wasn't accounted for where our protection is invalidated during a Night in which we need it to stand a chance. This could either be through the tinfoil world in which Winds is just scum and it's 6v6 (LnGs ability accounts for that not just being game over immediately toDay) with one of the scum having the ability to self-nominate. Or it could be in any world in which there is another Tubba-like role out there that is scum and is able to guarantee someone on the throne.
Lynch Winds toDay is something to think about since he is anti-town as far as a mylo situation is concerned and that guarantees us another Day and a smaller pool. But if SK we lose his shot at another scum potentially. Also, even if he is SK, there is a very high chance he shoots me toNight and even with a scum lynch, two town deaths toNight is still a loss I think? Maybe not since it would be 4v4v1 in that case and the throne would be inactive to get the scum team a guaranteed kill. So I think it would just put tomorrow at mylo if GJ is town Dr and lylo if not. Check my numbers please.
So yeah, I think it's possible Winds is just scum, but if he isn't AND scum has the guarantee someone to the throne ability we still lose toNight. However, it does seem like scum having a mult-shot vig would be stupidly balanced. In which case, Chris is just scum because I think shadow would have ended the game upon nomination if this was town vs SK since that's a guaranteed loss.
Basically, either Winds is SK and Chris is scum, or Winds is just scum and Chris could still be either. I am leaning towards the former and will probably vote Chris.
Please tell me if I made a mistake somewhere in this logic.
@Lngr: I have two wincons: be part of the lynch of someone on the throne or survive longer than 3 people who had the throne.
The second wincon seems unattainable, which is why I want to lynch Vaimes over my other suspects.
I don't see why scum!Rhand would lie about either of these alt wincons. Just poor luck (and maybe poor campaigning) on his part that Vaimes has been voted 3x.
I mean, I'm voting Chris 99% of the time here, but I don't feel like I want to rush and I'm not through my ISO and I guess it's possible I could find something so townie that I'd rather bump off the extra kill neutral so I'm not going there yet.
I guess we're NOT massclaiming now, since a big part of the point of that would have been to use that setup info to suss scum and there's possibly more benefit in waiting until D4 (if we get a D4)? Or do we move ahead with the massclaim in the hopes that it informs Winds' shot? Who hasn't claimed yet? Rhand...Hunger?
I mean, I'm voting Chris 99% of the time here, but I don't feel like I want to rush and I'm not through my ISO and I guess it's possible I could find something so townie that I'd rather bump off the extra kill neutral so I'm not going there yet.
I guess we're NOT massclaiming now, since a big part of the point of that would have been to use that setup info to suss scum and there's possibly more benefit in waiting until D4 (if we get a D4)? Or do we move ahead with the massclaim in the hopes that it informs Winds' shot? Who hasn't claimed yet? Rhand...Hunger?
I have claimed multiple times and have been pushing for the massclaim per my post I just made trying to figure out if scum have a guaranteed throne nomination (hint: they for sure do).
If we survive toDay and I'm killed toNight, we need to look and see if someone maybe slipped info on being able to guarantee a throne nomination and/or all the people that said they could self-nominate. Actually I think the self-nominators are just me and KJ since we are the throne unlock people left. So if there isn't a throne guarenteer in the game, then it's a 6 person scum team and KJ/me are guaranteed scum (hint: it's not me). But actually a reasonable reason to shoot one of KJ/me toNight and probably lynch the other if somehow with a 6 person scum team Winds isn't part of it.
I already full claimed so I really don't care one way or the other. I am sure Winds feels I am town, but also knows killing me gets closer to end game and helps the Stark wincon. So 99% sure he is hitting me tonight. But as long as Chris is scum, I will feel I have successfully done my part for this game.
If Chris isn't scum, I will be amazingly depressed.
If the last game on this site (I'm assuming) includes a scum team with a repeatable extra kill, I will be so angry. There's just...almost zero chance that Winds is scum.
@Hunger, if you are town, you need to fight against your lynch with everything you have. It will take everything that town has to win this game right now. We don't have the leverage to be ok with a lulzy who cares mislynch this game.
@Cantrip, appreciate the read through on Chris. Certainly can't hurt, though at this point it would take some slam dunk evidence to pull me out of this tunnel.
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And KJ, why do you think you would be lynched over Chris?
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I'm kind of expecting to get roleblocked tbh, since extra night kp is best way for town to get back in this
I guess Rhand helps your wincon too, so another reason to leave him off the lynch.
@Vaimes, what do you think about Shin as the other lynch? I think if this game is over after toDay, we go down fighting together against Sir Chris And choosing Shin will pretty much ensure Chris is the lynch.
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The second wincon seems unattainable, which is why I want to lynch Vaimes over my other suspects.
3. Sir Chris
5. Shinichi
6. Rhand
7. Hunger
11. Gentleman Johnny
17. Killjoy
It feels like there should be one in Chris/GJ (probably not w/w), so any one of Shin/Hunger/GJ/KJ to go with Chris I'd be happy with (assuming you are sticking with your anti-north win con thing @LnG and thus eliminating Rhand).
Which does make xy slip closer to the scum side and also then moves chris closer to town side. I am sorta paranoid that Chris is town here and scum team is just open wolfing saying he is the for sure lynch.
Why didn't anyone else comment on this? Do you agree or disagree with this assessment and what do you think LnG's role says about the balance of the other claimed roles? Can we get that massclaim first before the champions are decided?
@tom
And I want Chris to be wearing my colors.
I choose Sir Chris as my champion.
I suppose it's a little late now anyway since you have Chris locked in and if he is town scum probably wins, but there is still a chance to discuss it before a lynch happens.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
I choose THOUSAND WINDS as my champion.
If Chris isn't scum, I will totally own this town loss.
Today, Winds works for a Lannister.
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I mean i may be biased here if KJ gets picked but ill always be voting sir chris.
TPR vs a mostly scum read person lol
Interesting choices we got here, doesnt chris always get lynched though?
LnG, I'm a little disappointed/nervous. I feel like by choosing Winds over Rhand/KJ/GJ you ARE treating this as a directed vig shot at Chris rather than an opportunity to gain insight into people's choices. I still feel like your ability is probably more likely to be town than scum, but...this actually gives me pause. Why go this route?
why does it have to account for shots being stopped or not? Mylo is assuming that if we lynch town here the game has a possibility of ending at the end of the following night is all. It isnt stating that if we mislynch the game is just an auto loss, just that the possibility exists.
Mylo means if we lynch town it's an autoloss, by definition.
19: OP has Chris being mad at KJ for Death in the Family, calls KJ a "bad man" and votes him.
21: Response to DV's claim is to reinforce the idea that the claim is incomplete, but without any real digging at it. No real suspicion/questioning of DV here?
[multiple posts]: Pretty consistent calling of town!Wisp, several fluff posts. 161 & 163 in particular could be pocket attempts on Tom and Wisp.
186: Appropriate carryover suspicion of Rod.
Side Note: Found 330, breadcrumb by Tom that he knows there's a direwolf.
391: After a 3-day absence, blazes back into the thread defending LnG for his factionless claim, literally no comments on anything else.
424: Claims to have derailed the LnG wagon "single handedly"...yet the only two vote changes (DV and Wisp) occurred after Shadow "clarified" the rules on factions, so...interesting ego there. I don't think it's a reach to think that a scum!Chris could've made that claim expressly to be able to point back at himself "derailing" a town wagon. "Single handedly."
459: "No solid scum reads yet", but towns Tom.
601: Announces 6 day v/la.
682: Pops in during VLA to attack a single post of Shin's (664), pushes REALLY hard, says Shin is definitely scum, then says that Wisp not catching the same things make Wisp 100% scum too.
686 & 689: First solid town feels I've gotten, mostly in that he sounds like he really believes what he's pushing. Slight chance that if Chris flips scum, Shin is also scum (and Chris's conviction is TMI-based), but could come from town.
691/692: Encourages Tom to wagon Shin with him.
919: Chris, what "hilarious" results could there have been had you gained the throne?
962: Towns 1053 (possibly for the "let's tie the iron throne" plan), says he's going to tear Grape apart for Grape's defense of Shin.
971: Towns Grape for the audacity of going after Chris.
977-1155: Continues his push on Shin. Nothing really pinged me as scummy in any of these, but also nothing that felt blatantly townie. There were a few fluff posts directed at/about Rod. 1060 could be setting up domino lynches if Chris is buddies with Shin, maybe, but not sure I get that vibe.
1341: Towns Grape again because scum are rarely bold enough to attack Chris directly.
1346: Announces wisdom teeth surgery and goes V/LA.
I'm only halfway through or so, but I have to take a break and don't want to lose this.
That is kind of the point.
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Because if we don't hit scum toDay, the game is over. I am going down with my ship that Chris is scum. If I am wrong... well... sorry I guess. Let's say I picked Rhand or hunger or something, and it ends up a second scum. Then scum just hop on the scummiest one and wifom anyways.
Plus I am like 99% certain no one was going against Chris anyways. Also, KJ moved me with his plea.
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Onto victory! To paraphrase a beloved song of mine
We live
in fame
or go down
in flames
HEY
NOTHING CAN STOP THE
KING'S LANDING LANNISTERS!
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Like im probably just killing chris here but i definitely wanted to read more from him/x=y/johnny first
Guess its fairly out of my hands and i just dont believe scum has an every night extra kill so winds isnt...
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Pretty sure KJ is just super likely to be a wolf this game, but it's kind of whatever - think Chris gets lynched over him regardless.
I'm gonna just be operating off of the understanding that Chris is scum this game since if he's not game could be over.
Vaimes, Cantrip, Tom are all super obviously town this game. Would bet game on those 3 reads even if I were a villager here, and for all intents and purposes, I am, since I don't know who the wolves are.
GJ/Chris are probably not w/w, so if Chris is a wolf here, GJ is clear.
Chris and X=Y are never w/w.
Chris and Shinichi are unlikely to be w/w, but it's not impossible. Chris pushed him pretty hard on d1, but then kinda drifted off of that read.
That leaves what, like.
Killjoy, LnGrrrR, Rhand, Hunger?
I think there's a decent chance the team is just Chris/Killjoy/Rhand/Hunger tbh.
If youve got some time you should look at the hydra game (idr game number rn, but i was with johnny, newcomb with gh, chris was scum and dunked hard with me on his partner (RE hydra) and id like to see you compare that bus to a potential shinichi one
-Tyrion Lannister
Sir Chris (2): Thousand_Winds, LnGrrrR
Thousand_Winds (0):
Not Voting (10): Killjoy, Hunger, Cantripmancer, Gentleman Johnny, XequalsY, tomsloger, Rhand, Vaimes, Shinichi, Sir Chris
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is June 8th at 1200 MST.
A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
I'm just voting Vaimes again, because no way in hell am I putting super likely wolf Hunger on there.
I almost picked you as my champion
Honestly, I expected a but more conversation, but like usual this game, everyone is kinda like, "Bleh, whatever". So if people don't want to debate or champion anyone, might as well make it one sided.
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I mean, if he's scum who is to say he's not lying about his alt win con?
(What is his claimed alt win con anyways, I forget)
@everyone - my theory on the mylo situation
I wanted to see the mass claim finish out to see something, but it probably doesn't matter because scum probably wouldn't claim it anyway. And that's that the scum team has a guaranteed way to put scum on the throne which makes their factional kill unblockable which accounts for the inevitable mylo situation and why shadow wouldn't have accounted for it in the beginning of the game because the throne protection would likely be inactive at the state in the game in which it should matter. But since every single kill and lynch went this way it created this game state that wasn't accounted for where our protection is invalidated during a Night in which we need it to stand a chance. This could either be through the tinfoil world in which Winds is just scum and it's 6v6 (LnGs ability accounts for that not just being game over immediately toDay) with one of the scum having the ability to self-nominate. Or it could be in any world in which there is another Tubba-like role out there that is scum and is able to guarantee someone on the throne.
Lynch Winds toDay is something to think about since he is anti-town as far as a mylo situation is concerned and that guarantees us another Day and a smaller pool. But if SK we lose his shot at another scum potentially. Also, even if he is SK, there is a very high chance he shoots me toNight and even with a scum lynch, two town deaths toNight is still a loss I think? Maybe not since it would be 4v4v1 in that case and the throne would be inactive to get the scum team a guaranteed kill. So I think it would just put tomorrow at mylo if GJ is town Dr and lylo if not. Check my numbers please.
So yeah, I think it's possible Winds is just scum, but if he isn't AND scum has the guarantee someone to the throne ability we still lose toNight. However, it does seem like scum having a mult-shot vig would be stupidly balanced. In which case, Chris is just scum because I think shadow would have ended the game upon nomination if this was town vs SK since that's a guaranteed loss.
Basically, either Winds is SK and Chris is scum, or Winds is just scum and Chris could still be either. I am leaning towards the former and will probably vote Chris.
Please tell me if I made a mistake somewhere in this logic.
I don't see why scum!Rhand would lie about either of these alt wincons. Just poor luck (and maybe poor campaigning) on his part that Vaimes has been voted 3x.
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I mean, I'm voting Chris 99% of the time here, but I don't feel like I want to rush and I'm not through my ISO and I guess it's possible I could find something so townie that I'd rather bump off the extra kill neutral so I'm not going there yet.
I guess we're NOT massclaiming now, since a big part of the point of that would have been to use that setup info to suss scum and there's possibly more benefit in waiting until D4 (if we get a D4)? Or do we move ahead with the massclaim in the hopes that it informs Winds' shot? Who hasn't claimed yet? Rhand...Hunger?
If Chris isn't scum, I will be amazingly depressed.
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