Given how many variables we're working with (whether or not EtR flips scum, and how that affects the rest of his list) and that we need EtR's alignment to even have a clue as to which direction to go on, I'm not gonna bother with juggling that many worlds.
@ y'all already planning the next three lynches, I see you.
Not this game of Mafia, although I did just win this game of Mafia, but the entire concept of informed minority games. I didn't even know that was possible.
But first I have to tell you a story:
----
Long ago, in the long forgotten time of 2013, there was a Mafia game called Witchhunt 7 on a now-gone site called Fantasy Strike. Witchhunt 7 had a really really complicated setup, but right now only two facts are important: There were two scumteams in it, and there were some roles which any alignment could have. For example, The Investigator (gimped Role Cop) and The Innkeeper (Is neighbors with the Investigator and the Inquisitor, another gimped Role Cop) could be either Town or Mafia or Other Mafia.
Prime Intellect, gambit-master extraordinaire, rolls Town Investigator, and immediately hashes a plan. In one of his first posts in the Investigator/Innkeeper chat:
"
This is a bit of a gamble but here goes...
Searay I'm an elder witch [Mafia 1] I know you're either a junior [Mafia 2] or a spy. I'm going to bet that you're a junior though.
Let's use this to coordinate.
"
Now, in this case, the Innkeeper was not a member of the Mafia and was not a spy, and the whole thing turned out poorly for town. The Innkeeper ended up telling everything to the Inquisitor, who it turns out actually was a member of Mafia 1. Still, after reading that game I always remembered the shenanigans Townies could do in alignment unconfirmed chats.
----
Then I got my role PM this game: Town Neighbor (hardclaim that by the way). I immediately realize the potential. Of course, there's no indications of there's multiple scum teams in the setup, so I need to lie like a tombstone in order to get this gambit off the ground.
I claim Mafia Traitor aka Lone Wolf aka this role Neighbor. I try to think of a good excuse for knowing that my Neighbor partner is Main Fraction scum, but I can't make it work so I just settle for flatly declaring that my Neighbor is main fraction scum. Then I ask my neighbor who "our" scumbuddies are.
However, my Neighbor, EtR is afk. So afk, that the 24 hour period our chat is open D1 is closing. No worries, I decide to come up with a way EtR can signal me in-thread. This just might work better - after all, if he can't consult his scumbuddies, he's more likely to fall for it!
Thus, my signalling method, with I mention in Neighbor chat: If EtR makes a post which asks at least four players questions, one of which is me, I will assume the rest of the players are "our" scumbuddies.
Question Time (starting page 5)
@TAU - what are your thoughts on Tubba and KA
@Rhand - what are your thoughts on Riku and Vaimes
@Wisp - Top Town Read?
@Tom - Top Town Read?
So:
The scumteam is EtR, Rhand, Lastwhisper, and tomsloger.
Vote: EtR
----
~Boring Other Stuff~
There are a couple other explanations for EtR's behavior, which range from wildly implausible to literal skyscrappers made out of tinfoil. I could enumerate them, but I'd rather let @EtR attempt an explanation.
Sorry Not Sorry to EtR for making him "That guy who Reaverb Tau tricked into outing his entire scumteam."
Reminder to self to dive deep into the logic on this later.
Immediate thoughts are: ETR scum probably no matter what. I will wait for him to post, because I don't want to taint his answers with my own thoughts.
Unvote, Vote ETR
Also, is Tau is scum, Grape is too.
What ties Grape and Tau together for you?
Only in the situation where Tau is scum and making some crazy gambit, trying to get town!ETR killed. In that world, which is not something I believe in btw, I see it as a way of discrediting the arguments against Grape (Rhand brought the "tell" case against Grape, Tom defended it and tied me as Grape's scumbuddy, and Whisper was also vocal about it). I think that's enough coincidence to point to coordination between Grape and Tau.
But like I said, I don't believe that at the moment. It might be WIFOM, but I can't see scum!tau taking such a risk just to kill a town!etr on day 1. *MAYBE* he would if he thought he could discredit Tom/Rhand/Whisper enough to get suspicion off Grape. There is also a world where Tau and LnGrrR are scum together, and Tau is trying to stop that wagon, but the inclusion of Rhand doesn't make sense there. I'm also not sure LnGrrR's wagon is at the point where I'd make a gambit to stop it. I know I'm not Tau, but I just don't see it.
*PARAGRAPH REDACTED UNTIL ETR POSTS*
In any case, ETR and Tau can't both be telling the truth right now.
@KJ - What are your thoughts on Tau's claim?
My immediate reaction, especially with EtR being AFK and therefore unable to discuss Tau's claim in their thread in any kind of detail (so Tau couldn't do back and forth and convince him etc) that EtR would not be that gullible. So the scumteam is 100% not EtR, Rhand, Last, Mindreaver. The fact that I'm reasonably sure that Rhand is town and more sure that Last is, its probably not the case. Obviously he DID try it, EtR confirmed. I'd say that pushes him toward town a bit.
In the back fo my mind though... He gains a benefit from EtR dying... so its possible he has another motive for doing this unattached to his alignment (unlocking his ability). Its a very lone wolf thing to do.
So if EtR is mafia, Tau probably isn't.
If EtR is town... I don't think mafia!tau thinks of that?
I have another thought about Tau but I'm gonna keep that under my hat for now.
Tau's explanation from his side is accurate. I logged into the neighbor chat after it had closed. I didn't realize we had time at the beginning of the day to chat and I was away for the weekend. I read through what he posted about being a mafia defector and his request to name the scum team.
From my point of view this could have been a couple things. I haven't played with Tau before and no nothing of his experience so it could be true that he was a lone mafia that didn't know the team. He could also be town thinking I'm scum and trying to out me.
So what I felt the options were:
1. Out him immediately based on his claim in chat
2. Ignore it
3. Play along
I don't think I truly believed that he was mafia because we aren't alignment confirmed to each other so there would be no reason at all for him to give that information out freely, unless he was a brand new player. So I figured this wouldn't be the best course.
Ignoring it was possible but wouldn't be any fun.
So I chose play along to see where it went. It was also the more enjoyable of the three options. In my post I chose myself and two random people, one that was being mostly scum read and 1 that was more neutral based on the fact that there are probably 4 mafia in the game. Surprise surprise it was a gambit.
I think that summarizes my thoughts pretty well.
What does all this tell you about Tau's alignment?
For the record my role PM matches EtR's claim. I don't have a proper role name, the world "Neighbor" isn't use in my role PM. I do get a new ability if EtR dies.
Also his 405 seems.. genuine and smart and 100% pro town.
Like, all of this feels forced and rushed. And i just, i am not seeing any faultering of his attitude. You'd think scum caught this early would.. explode.
I'd like to call this a gut feeling, and i have been working on following those. But just think for a second about Tau and his ABSOLUTE sudden switch from Grr is scum to Etr and crew (tm) is scum and Grr is town. a 180 like that should at least arise SOME suspicion.
Hmmm.
I'm getting scum!rodemy thoughts. Rodemy feels different.
Is it just because he's actually paying attention?
Oh wow. Vaimes sheeping the Grr wagon is.. something.
I /barn KJ's question
Which question?
Also I'm noticing your thoughts echoing my own more than once. Maybe you're not scum?
Or maybe I just think like scum naturally. Would explain why I'm always scumread.
Good lord if this thread isn't being pulled in fifteen hundred different directions.
Killjoy, I meant that it looked like you were forcing a read when I had like three posts (RVS, comment about LW, and V/LA declaration). All I can really say to "I don't see town!Vaimes yet" at that point is duh.
I thought Reaverb made good points on LnGR, and that LnGR's indecisiveness was over the top.
I think I've done that in other games recently as well, because I was easily able to townread you. It's not actually happening this game.
Why aren't you town, Vaimes?
Also re: indeciciveness: I thought the same of Osie and was wrong. I'd like LnGrrR to come back and answer because he's not done much by virtue of not being here as oppose to actively lurking.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I mean technically, even if Tau was telling the truth, the correct decision is to lynch him, though? It proves his claim (or disproves it), which gives a point of reference for the future.
I mean technically, even if Tau was telling the truth, the correct decision is to lynch him, though? It proves his claim (or disproves it), which gives a point of reference for the future.
To be clear, are you talking about Tau or EtR?
Per grammatical law, Tau
I did reread and think 'this might be confusing'
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
Also re: indeciciveness: I thought the same of Osie and was wrong. I'd like LnGrrR to come back and answer because he's not done much by virtue of not being here as oppose to actively lurking.
I don't stop being town just because you're incapable of perceiving it. And I don't know why you expected to accurately read me within three posts. Has that ever happened?
Nothing is universal, LnGR's play has never stood out to me in the past in however many games I've played with him, and I thought that the fear of death would get him to post or crumble. Obviously things aren't going that way, but I won't forget about him.
Per grammatical law, Tau
I did reread and think 'this might be confusing'
Uh. Why?
Lynching EtR already has the benefit of proving or disproving Tau's claim, and it's more likely to net scum if there's only one between them. Compare Tau's "hey let me do this huge attention-grabbing gambit" and EtR's "yeah these are my scumbuddies."
Given how many variables we're working with (whether or not EtR flips scum, and how that affects the rest of his list) and that we need EtR's alignment to even have a clue as to which direction to go on, I'm not gonna bother with juggling that many worlds.
@ y'all already planning the next three lynches, I see you.
SenapiNoticedMe.gif (of your choice)
@Riku killing EtR gives us the same info while hitting the one more likely to be scum since their stories are in agreement.
Per grammatical law, Tau
I did reread and think 'this might be confusing'
Uh. Why?
Lynching EtR already has the benefit of proving or disproving Tau's claim, and it's more likely to net scum if there's only one between them. Compare Tau's "hey let me do this huge attention-grabbing gambit" and EtR's "yeah these are my scumbuddies."
What if he truly is a traitor? What if etc. I think EtR already confirmed some of Tau's role, yeah? Actually, let me go back. I think there was something.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
Also re: indeciciveness: I thought the same of Osie and was wrong. I'd like LnGrrR to come back and answer because he's not done much by virtue of not being here as oppose to actively lurking.
I don't stop being town just because you're incapable of perceiving it. And I don't know why you expected to accurately read me within three posts. Has that ever happened?
Nothing is universal, LnGR's play has never stood out to me in the past in however many games I've played with him, and I thought that the fear of death would get him to post or crumble. Obviously things aren't going that way, but I won't forget about him.
First off, before I argue this with you, can you quote where I actually did that this game? I haven't thought you were town at all this game, hence my comments.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
First off, before I argue this with you, can you quote where I actually did that this game? I haven't thought you were town at all this game, hence my comments.
One, I was mistaken. I had seven posts, completely forgot a couple.
Town is probably Grape, Maybe Last, Maybe Rod. Vaimes is usually easier for me to read so IDK what that's about.
By that point I had an RVS vote, a question about August's identity, a comment about LW, some elaboration on that comment, more RVS banter, an OOG post, and a V/LA declaration.
I don't understand why you'd expect to have me as anything but null at that point. As far as I can remember, you and I have always struggled to read each other, and it's what made Friends & Enemies such an uphill battle early on.
Can anyone tell me why it's a certainty that EtR or Reverb must flip town/scum or scum/town and not town/town? Or even scum/scum? Are they the type who would try out a gambit like this? I know neighbours that I usually see have a scum in them, or are scum (The neighbourizer is scum I've seen often)
Cause I saw Reverb's explanation of his gambit, and it just seemed weird. As did EtR's response.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
@KJ - as far as what that tells me about his alignment... Absolutely nothing. That's why I hate Neighbor roles, you could easily say that everything he did is from a town or scum angle.
First off, before I argue this with you, can you quote where I actually did that this game? I haven't thought you were town at all this game, hence my comments.
One, I was mistaken. I had seven posts, completely forgot a couple.
Town is probably Grape, Maybe Last, Maybe Rod. Vaimes is usually easier for me to read so IDK what that's about.
By that point I had an RVS vote, a question about August's identity, a comment about LW, some elaboration on that comment, more RVS banter, an OOG post, and a V/LA declaration.
I don't understand why you'd expect to have me as anything but null at that point. As far as I can remember, you and I have always struggled to read each other, and it's what made Friends & Enemies such an uphill battle early on.
Ah. I see the confusion.
Let me recontextualize so it makes more sense.
Town is probably Grape,
Maybe Last,
Maybe Rod.
Seperate thought: Vaimes is usually easier for me to read so IDK what that's about.
Meaning, yes, I believe I would be townreading you at that point after 7 or whatever posts. I think I've done it before. Actually you always call me out on it I think.
But usually there's just a point where I figure out you're town and it doesn't usually take too long. 505 is a step in the right direction but its not definitive. So I wasn't townreading you then, and I'm still not.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So I don't really believe that Tau completely broke them game, but gosh dang Wisp's reaction to this whole thing is so bizarre.
Anyway so worlds (which I know tom already did but you all have to read it again):
Town!EtR/Town!Tau: in this world Tau decides to gambit and EtR sees it and decides to gambit back. Attempting to figure out what mindset this makes sense for EtR from and I'm struggling. I guess his stated explanation makes some amount of sense if you believe Tau, but I'm not sure it's more valuable than just outing him and seeing what happens. It also is just slightly askew with his assertion that he signaled the wrong names. If he believed in his bones that Tau was scum then signalling 2 additional scum makes sense (as a 5 person scum team is way too many if one is a lost wolf) but I'm really skeptical that if he really believed that he just wouldn't out Tau.
Plus it looks really intentional. The 4 questions were not in depth, had very specific targets, and formatted to make 4 as obvious as possible. I have a hard time thinking town EtR (who is a slow methodical player as shown by his catch up style) asked Wisp and Tom the same question on different lines without intending to point to them. Which makes this claim of "I was town gambiting, but signaled the wrong players." incredibly hard to believe. It doesn't seem like these are questions he would have been dying to ask and accidentally forgot to signal his intended targets.
Conclusion: Very unlikely.
Town!EtR/Scum!Tau: Here Tau gets EtR killed and then dies the next day. Given his strength as a player and ego I find this beyond unlikely. It also runs into the EtR incorrectly signaling while running a gambit issue.
Conclusion: Incredibly unlikely.
Scum!EtR/Scum!Tau: Here Tau gets EtR killed but loses a ton of credit when the buddies don't pan out. This is the scenario where Tau messing up the "counter-gambit" feels most probable. They hatch the hyper bus plan and to try and preserve EtR's dunked on the game credit they spill a ton of wine about what EtR "meant" to do. I don't believe it though because I don't think Tau takes that high risk of a line D1.
Conclusion: Unlikely.
Scum!EtR/Town!Tau: Tau runs a gambit, EtR either partially believes him but decides to test Tau by feeding a false list to gauge his reaction or fully believes him and gives the real list. His wine spilling with the incorrect signal makes sense here (spilling wine or attempting to chain townies together). Tau's mindset makes sense to me in this world and EtR's doesn't feel outside the realm of possibility. I think the intentional fake list to test Tau's claim is the more likely outcome. And jives with EtR saying Tau should have questioned the number but then claiming he only signaled 2 buddies.
EtR/Tau>>EtR/Tau>>>EtR/Tau>>>>EtR/Tau
EtR is very likely lying and spilling wine at this stage. His versions of events don't make sense or have an easily understandable town mindset behind them.
Anyway tom gunning for my flip still is a o-O, Rhand's "well time to think long and hard if this is a dichotomy", and Wisp's tonal change to anger makes me think there is a chance EtR got duped but I don't really believe that. Most likely is scum!EtR tested Tau and named 1 or 0 buddies. So time to dig into reactions to this and see what can be found.
EtR as town situations seem highly unlikely to me. W/W is the second most likely in my book.
@Vaimes ah trying to remind you that looking ahead is not a bad thing as long as it's done well.
@KJ - as far as what that tells me about his alignment... Absolutely nothing. That's why I hate Neighbor roles, you could easily say that everything he did is from a town or scum angle.
I can't accept that answer though.
Like, think about it.
Do you think he's more likely to do it as scum? Town?
Do you think he's doing it to find scum?
Does he care about your alignment at all? Is he just trying to unlock his ability?
You're the one with access to that chat. Ask yourself some questions, then answer them, then get back to me.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Aaand I just got to the ETR claim. I'm posting this list anyways. Assume this list stops at the ETR/Reaverb Tau claim.
Town
tomsloger – He seems town. I need to revisit this read pretty much every day though. Note to self if Tom seems to come to conclusions that seem strange revisit immediately. Tom has also echoed quite a few thoughts I had while I was reading the thread.
Lastwhisper – Seems pure. At least for the moment. I've always felt that last just produces so much content that if he is scum he will slip up at some point. Fine with having him in town for the moment.
Rodemy – Slightly over aggressive at the beginning. I don't think he's scum right now though. Also whats the probability of him rolling scum three games in a row /s.
Reaverb Tau – Up until #226 I was slightly scum reading them. Their list didn't seem like the worst thing I've ever read and their scum team matched my scum team at this point.
Grapefruit21 – I don't think I've ever seen Grape open power wolf. Also, hes reasoning in a way that I agree with. I'd be reading through the thread seeing things and then grape would echo them. Probably my weakest town read though.
Neutral IE the “August” standard.
KamikazeArchon – I'd be tempted to move KA to town. In ghostbusters he felt cold and distant. Seems a lot more bubbly here.
M1ndreaver – I don't feel like Mind has really done much either way. He's been trying to solve enough I suppose, but I'm just left with a void of apathy after reading his posts.
Vaimes – I was already scum reading him, because his post felt like catch up join the largest wagon when he joined the grape wagon. Tom, echoing my thoughts almost immediately makes me think this is perhaps more valid then I was giving it credit for.
Tubba – I really disliked Tubba's push onto last. All of the content that was flying around and in that 280 post that's what he decides to focus on before he fades back into the shadows?
Killjoy – KJ's posts have been a little too low effort for me. Its pinging me the wrong way and their comments have been almost abrupt. I'm not really sure how else to describe it. Its like instead of developing any ideas he just veers somewhere else. His town read of Rhand in 300 feels bad to me.
Tom since you were on the other side of Disinheritance how did you think when I claimed to be a neutral that won with scum? For anyone wondering I pulled this exact same play with Tom, and Tom was town in that game.
I told Tom that I was a neutral survivor that wanted to win with the scum and wanted him to tell his scum buddies this information as well. I also indicated that I "Knew seppel was lying and that I wasn't going to counter claim his buddy".
You can see where he responded to this information by voting Seppel.
I'm not 100% certain to do with the information.
But I feel that if Tom was Town that he would have claimed.
@KJ - as far as what that tells me about his alignment... Absolutely nothing. That's why I hate Neighbor roles, you could easily say that everything he did is from a town or scum angle.
I can't accept that answer though.
Like, think about it.
Do you think he's more likely to do it as scum? Town?
Do you think he's doing it to find scum?
Does he care about your alignment at all? Is he just trying to unlock his ability?
You're the one with access to that chat. Ask yourself some questions, then answer them, then get back to me.
I get what you're saying, but I've been thinking about it since I first saw his post in the chat. I initially thought that he was telling the truth about being scum. Then after thinking about it for a bit, I figured no one could be dumb enough to post that they are scum in a chat where both parties alignment isn't known so he had to be town gambiting.
And at this point, I'll just say it since I'm 99.9% to be the lynch. He could be a neutral. His flavor probably has something to do with taking over the family. I don't know what his ability would be when he unlocks it. But by pulling this gambit he can get some town cred (i.e. Why would a scum risk this).
I don't know, I'm just at a loss. There's nothing in the chat that matters or points me in any direction besides his setting up the gambit. I'd like to believe he's town but the push and pull of us gaining abilities when the other dies kind of puts us at odds with each other.
For the record even if Wisp's argument was "Even if EtR flips scum it's stupid to assume the list is scum and you should kill me to prove it but killing me is bad because I'm a claimed PR."
It's still Y i k e s.
And for the sake of argument let's say EtR flips scum today. I'm going to push to kill tom tomorrow. The list isn't the most likely answer, but as long as there is a chance it's correct we should pursue it. LW isn't the person I'd choose first off it (tom is the easy first choice) even without the PR claim. If tom flips scum the lol wolves. If tom were to flip town I'd then reevaluate and start digging for wolf reactions with the knowledge that I'm looking for people whose buddy got dunked on but at least didn't ruin the game 100%.
If EtR flips town then we kill Tau. And if he flips town then we learn that yolo gambits are a bad idea.
Grape I agree with the Last part, but doesn't a post like Rhand's
Hey all, sorry I haven't been around, been pretty sick with the flu the last 2 days and it's kicking my butt all over the place. I have to read back to like... page 5, but if someone has a question they want answered now, I"m around. Also, I skimmed the posts above me, and... it reads pretty lulzy on first glance.
I'm going to wait for Tom to get back to me and I'm going to read some more, but man I think lynching ETR is a low percent play.
I think its much more likely that the wolves came to town though when this got aired because MAN did a lot of opportunistic votes get thrown out in all directions.
The only thing I can say is that Tom and Last both went into what I might call "Damage control" and sort of attacked this play immediately. They are also the two most active players though.
I feel pretty sure this is not Town Rhand. Vote Rhand
Hey all, sorry I haven't been around, been pretty sick with the flu the last 2 days and it's kicking my butt all over the place. I have to read back to like... page 5, but if someone has a question they want answered now, I"m around. Also, I skimmed the posts above me, and... it reads pretty lulzy on first glance.
Scum chat @ you to hammer huh, but you came too late?
Hey all, sorry I haven't been around, been pretty sick with the flu the last 2 days and it's kicking my butt all over the place. I have to read back to like... page 5, but if someone has a question they want answered now, I"m around. Also, I skimmed the posts above me, and... it reads pretty lulzy on first glance.
Scum chat @ you to hammer huh, but you came too late?
I hadn't even looked at the vote count lol. I'm coughing up a rainbow of colors. But thanks for giving me time to reread I guess. Since you're here, can you give me a quick BLUF on the last IRL day?
Oh wait. I'm guessing you changed your vote to Rhand, and weren't claiming a hammer yourself. Derp. Never mind, guess I get to keep reading this morning.
What is your actual stance on the EtR thing? Are you townreading EtR and Reaverb, or do you think there's some truth to EtR's response? Given you're calling tom's and LW's reactions "damage control," which implies they're actually guilty.
@DV I'm with you on Rhand's reaction being a bit sketch, but I feel the same way about tom and Wisps.
And even if the wolves have day chat I just don't believe that EtR and Tau fps'd each other into oblivion. I truly don't believe EtR when he says he intended to signal KA and Tubba when the questions are so precisely formatted and generic. Yes I think regardless of what happened the wolves have piled on but I think that EtR is probably just a wolf here.
Actually, if you're waiting for tom, then never mind.
I'm my own person I can talk about it.
But right now I'm trying to catalog what happened after the claim.
What is your actual stance on the EtR thing? Are you townreading EtR and Reaverb, or do you think there's some truth to EtR's response? Given you're calling tom's and LW's reactions "damage control," which implies they're actually guilty.
I'm really not sure.
ETR could be scum(He could be a form of lost scum and gone "That's like my role seems legit". ) He could be town.
I think there could be truth to ETR's post. I kind of say it in my sum up. I'm not sure why he didn't question his neighbor more in neighbor chat. I guess his play also tells him something about the alignment.
I think Tau and ETR could both be town and I could see that world. Hell Tau could be scum and knows that ETR is town and will tell the truth about the events that transpired.
Its a possibility that ETR got caught. I remember a game a long time ago which was LOTR themed Mines of Moria to be exact. Anyways, the Town in that game was the Goblins/Orcs and the scum was the Fellowship. Someone, day one asked for a race flavor claim and someone claimed Hobbit, they were instantly lynched. I was really sure that they were town and that they couldn't have made that mistake. They were scum and they did just screw up that badly.
Consequently I've run this gambit with Tom. He was town and didn't out me to the town. In fact Sir Chris said if the person was scum they would have instantly claimed and gotten the free town points. I think Sir Chris was right on that. This play isn't nearly as clever as I thought then, and I question if it worked here.
I think too this game has to recognize some truths about this game.
This game is a Normal. The likely setup is 12/4. Scum know who their partners are. Unless something really funky is going on scum know that there will only be 4 mafia players. Its a normal after all.
How in the world is this game going to be balanced with 11/5.
ETR's reasoning of figuring it out actually makes sense to me from a town perspective.
If ANYTHING, I'd say ETR comes out more likely town that Tau does for this.
Tau's play by any stretch of the imagination could not have been calculated for success as town. At least when I made my play with Tom in Disinheritance I got to pick Tom as who I wanted to talk to. Seems like these neighbors started together. It seemed like a good play for a premade mod determined alignment to put a scum member and the lost scum in the same group? What mod makes that decision? None. So, what scum is going to fall for this play? I hope a small minority.
A timeline of about the first 100 posts after Tau's claim. Of what I see as important events.
#378 Reaverb Tau drops their bomb.
#380 Grapes response seems Genuine.
#381 Rhand says Tau is discrediting all the top town reads.(I'm not sure who was town reading him as top but OK). Tom and Last were like sort of town read. But making it “Sow” confusion on day one on post 378. Really now rhand?
#382 Grape joins the ETR wagon.
#385 Mindreaver says “He will wait for ETR to post” Proceeds to vote him in the next line of text in the same post. Nice waiting there Mindreaver. Gives us the Grape connection with Tau.
#386 Instead of commenting on the Tau post Tubba comes from the shadows to ask Mindreaver about the connection between Grape and Tau.
#388 Rhand pushes Grape as being scum too.
#394 ETR responds, explains he thought it would be the best option. I'm not sure this is accurate. The best play IMO was to talk to his neighbor in the neighbor chat.
#405 ETR's extended plan actually seems pretty decent. I still question holding this info from the town, but ehhh?
#416 Tom goes after mindreaver
#426 Kami claims that lynching ETR is the only course of action. I dislike how sure they are that this is a good play.
#427 Wisp votes Kami due to 426.
#431 Kami says taking out ETR is the only reasonable course. I disagree. ETR has claimed reasons that I can analyze and see if they hold merit. I can also look at the game state and see if I think scum would have fallen for it. I can also attempt to figure out if I think Tau is scum gambiting. There are plenty of other reasonable things to do. I can also ignore the whole thing and hope the Vig/Cop solves it for me.
#440 Vaimes votes ETR says this is correct. If I already wasn't convinced this was not correct, this would have convinced me that it wasn't correct.
#442 Last votes ETR because....
#443 ETR claims.
#458 Grape analyizes things and stuff. Something REASONABLE townies do. Unlike, VOTING IMMEDIATLY.
#467 Rhand joins the wagon with the dumbest reason ever. If anything he's outed himself as not being a PR.
#468 From Tubba has to be the scummiest post that nobody has commented on
#469 Tubba remembers to play for his win con and votes a townie.
@Vaimes, post 314 you said you liked what Grape did with the LW wagon. But two posts before, you had LW as highest town, and Grape wasn't listed (so maybe in the [People] section.) Can you explain what you liked about it? Because all I see is a vote and then call for more votes.
@Tau, I disagree that admitting one's own flaws is a Mafia mindset. I know some people have the idea that you don't care how towny you have to look if you're town, but I think you do. Sure, finding scum is one of the biggest parts of the game, but not getting mislynched is probably 2nd most important. If you are town and go into the thread acting in non-towny ways, to the point where people just write you off, you aren't helping vote analysis after your death, because scum can just say, "Cmon guys, everyone thought he was scummy!"
And maybe I wasn't clear, but 192 isn't all null tells. I directly told Rodemy he's leaning scum there. I also called Grape's jump opportunistic. I don't know how you read that as "null". And then Kami answered my question in the next post.
Speaking of which, Kami originally voted LW for post #57, and then continued to read LW as scum, in spite of LW's continued presence in the thread and willingness to engage pretty much everyone as far as I can see. But he also asks Tom if he should put him on his permascum list. Either Kami is openly wolfing or reading the gamestate way different than me.
@Kami, are you usually a stubborn player who has trouble changing a read once they get it?
Just read Grape's defense of his jump onto LW. I can buy it, I guess. If he's scum, it would be strange for GF to be oblivious enough to jump on nakedly but shrewd enough to come up with that defense.
@Tau, two top townreads are already mentioned, LW and Tom for now. (As of post 353). Two top scumreads are Kami and ... I probably would've said Grape a few posts ago, but I'll move him up a notch and put Rodemy.
Also, lol on your color coding. I notice there's no color for "good play". Seems your reading might be a bit biased. Sometimes I don't bring a question back up because it's been answered.
You're completely misreading my comment on Tubba being quiet. My point is that sometimes, players are quiet, and they aren't scum because of it, ESPECIALLY when it's D1. Now, if it's D3 and he's still quiet, sure I'll be worried. But D1, eh, it's something to notice but that's it. Then you say I make no attempt to understand the push on LW, but me commenting on that is my way of putting it out in the open for people to comment on in the first place! Like, why do you think I'm airing the various votes on the wagon and calling attention to it?
And then there's #378 which.... *head asplode*
ETR's explanation for why he didn't just first post share that Tau claimed scum makes no sense. And it's 5 AM now so I'll catch up on the rest tomorrow.
I'm personally having trouble seeing why scum!EtR says "Oh, I meant to signal tubba and KA, not last, tom, and Rhand!" Like the way he did it feels so genuine. And why would he not just... pretend it was correct?
With that and the way the wagon developed... I'm wondering if there's not a town!EtR here.
@DV: Talk to me about Rhand. Is it just how he entered the EtR wagon or is there more to it?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Anyway I'm not completely opposed to the idea of town EtR but the changing who he meant to indicate is a really bad reason to think that. I can buy him wanting to play it close to the chest but that still leaves his catch up not making any sense.
Anyway I'm not completely opposed to the idea of town EtR but the changing who he meant to indicate is a really bad reason to think that. I can buy him wanting to play it close to the chest but that still leaves his catch up not making any sense.
You don't think that's a weird thing for scum to do?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Anyway I'm not completely opposed to the idea of town EtR but the changing who he meant to indicate is a really bad reason to think that. I can buy him wanting to play it close to the chest but that still leaves his catch up not making any sense.
You don't think that's a weird thing for scum to do?
Anyway I'm not completely opposed to the idea of town EtR but the changing who he meant to indicate is a really bad reason to think that. I can buy him wanting to play it close to the chest but that still leaves his catch up not making any sense.
You don't think that's a weird thing for scum to do?
Caught scum don't have a lot of options.
Caught scum don't generally do things to make them selves look worse on purpose though, is my point.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Taus switch from Grr to.. anyone but him is just ridiculous.
The ETR posting his scumbuddies is.. A dumb play.
Also, he mentioned Tau, so if any one of them flips town (likely concidering.. Last? Is in your scumteam right now.) last is pushing for Grr, THE SAME GRR You pushed the post BEFORE. So you were on the same page as him.
Given that one post never happend. Find me one definite scum post for each of that team.
Also, On ETR: One question.
His 361 has him kind of scumreading Last. Why would Scum!Etr do this this early when Last (his supposed scumbuddy) is widely considered town?
And why would scum!tom be poushing scumBuddy!etr so hard right now?
Food for thought.
Conciderinbg Grr was Tau's literally huge push the post before, i'm gonna put Grr in the town category.
Vote Tau
I think Tau is trying to get us going on a wild goose chase and i am not having it.
Also his 405 seems.. genuine and smart and 100% pro town.
Like, all of this feels forced and rushed. And i just, i am not seeing any faultering of his attitude. You'd think scum caught this early would.. explode.
I'd like to call this a gut feeling, and i have been working on following those. But just think for a second about Tau and his ABSOLUTE sudden switch from Grr is scum to Etr and crew (tm) is scum and Grr is town. a 180 like that should at least arise SOME suspicion.
I feel like they’ve slid into anti spew a little bit personally, and I don’t recall anything they’ve done prior to this that made much of an impact on the game.
Do you think this makes Tau scum?
Yes. Do you?
No...
It doesn’t fit with what I’ve seen of scumTau, and on top of that it seems like a ridiculous gambit for scum to pull day one.
It also doesn’t make sense to me for townEtR to not out claimed scum right away. That plan is even more likely to backfire than Tau’s original one.
I think we need to flip one of them, and EtR seems the more likely scum between the two.
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@ y'all already planning the next three lynches, I see you.
Reminder to self to dive deep into the logic on this later.
My immediate reaction, especially with EtR being AFK and therefore unable to discuss Tau's claim in their thread in any kind of detail (so Tau couldn't do back and forth and convince him etc) that EtR would not be that gullible. So the scumteam is 100% not EtR, Rhand, Last, Mindreaver. The fact that I'm reasonably sure that Rhand is town and more sure that Last is, its probably not the case. Obviously he DID try it, EtR confirmed. I'd say that pushes him toward town a bit.
In the back fo my mind though... He gains a benefit from EtR dying... so its possible he has another motive for doing this unattached to his alignment (unlocking his ability). Its a very lone wolf thing to do.
So if EtR is mafia, Tau probably isn't.
If EtR is town... I don't think mafia!tau thinks of that?
I have another thought about Tau but I'm gonna keep that under my hat for now.
What does all this tell you about Tau's alignment?
But, why does scum!EtR correct that? Why not just... not say anything?
Do agree here.
@Rhand: Opinion on Tau vs. EtR?
Hmmm.
I'm getting scum!rodemy thoughts. Rodemy feels different.
Is it just because he's actually paying attention?
Maybe: ScumETR Scum Rodemy?
Which question?
Also I'm noticing your thoughts echoing my own more than once. Maybe you're not scum?
Or maybe I just think like scum naturally. Would explain why I'm always scumread.
I think I've done that in other games recently as well, because I was easily able to townread you. It's not actually happening this game.
Why aren't you town, Vaimes?
Also re: indeciciveness: I thought the same of Osie and was wrong. I'd like LnGrrR to come back and answer because he's not done much by virtue of not being here as oppose to actively lurking.
Per grammatical law, Tau
I did reread and think 'this might be confusing'
Nothing is universal, LnGR's play has never stood out to me in the past in however many games I've played with him, and I thought that the fear of death would get him to post or crumble. Obviously things aren't going that way, but I won't forget about him.
Lynching EtR already has the benefit of proving or disproving Tau's claim, and it's more likely to net scum if there's only one between them. Compare Tau's "hey let me do this huge attention-grabbing gambit" and EtR's "yeah these are my scumbuddies."
SenapiNoticedMe.gif (of your choice)
@Riku killing EtR gives us the same info while hitting the one more likely to be scum since their stories are in agreement.
What if he truly is a traitor? What if etc. I think EtR already confirmed some of Tau's role, yeah? Actually, let me go back. I think there was something.
It wasn't the only one, I was just on mobile and it was easy to reply to. I didn't like Kami's or now Tubba's as well.
By the time I got around to checking again over the weekend, I was no longer allowed to post in it. I had missed the posting window.
Are you trying to remind me that you're scum?
Second, you posted 153: By that point I had an RVS vote, a question about August's identity, a comment about LW, some elaboration on that comment, more RVS banter, an OOG post, and a V/LA declaration.
I don't understand why you'd expect to have me as anything but null at that point. As far as I can remember, you and I have always struggled to read each other, and it's what made Friends & Enemies such an uphill battle early on.
Cause I saw Reverb's explanation of his gambit, and it just seemed weird. As did EtR's response.
Let me recontextualize so it makes more sense.
Town is probably Grape,
Maybe Last,
Maybe Rod.
Seperate thought: Vaimes is usually easier for me to read so IDK what that's about.
Meaning, yes, I believe I would be townreading you at that point after 7 or whatever posts. I think I've done it before. Actually you always call me out on it I think.
But usually there's just a point where I figure out you're town and it doesn't usually take too long. 505 is a step in the right direction but its not definitive. So I wasn't townreading you then, and I'm still not.
What do you think of Rod?
EtR as town situations seem highly unlikely to me. W/W is the second most likely in my book.
@Vaimes ah trying to remind you that looking ahead is not a bad thing as long as it's done well.
Like, think about it.
Do you think he's more likely to do it as scum? Town?
Do you think he's doing it to find scum?
Does he care about your alignment at all? Is he just trying to unlock his ability?
You're the one with access to that chat. Ask yourself some questions, then answer them, then get back to me.
tomsloger – He seems town. I need to revisit this read pretty much every day though. Note to self if Tom seems to come to conclusions that seem strange revisit immediately. Tom has also echoed quite a few thoughts I had while I was reading the thread.
Lastwhisper – Seems pure. At least for the moment. I've always felt that last just produces so much content that if he is scum he will slip up at some point. Fine with having him in town for the moment.
Rodemy – Slightly over aggressive at the beginning. I don't think he's scum right now though. Also whats the probability of him rolling scum three games in a row /s.
Reaverb Tau – Up until #226 I was slightly scum reading them. Their list didn't seem like the worst thing I've ever read and their scum team matched my scum team at this point.
Grapefruit21 – I don't think I've ever seen Grape open power wolf. Also, hes reasoning in a way that I agree with. I'd be reading through the thread seeing things and then grape would echo them. Probably my weakest town read though.
Neutral IE the “August” standard.
KamikazeArchon – I'd be tempted to move KA to town. In ghostbusters he felt cold and distant. Seems a lot more bubbly here.
M1ndreaver – I don't feel like Mind has really done much either way. He's been trying to solve enough I suppose, but I'm just left with a void of apathy after reading his posts.
Vaimes – I was already scum reading him, because his post felt like catch up join the largest wagon when he joined the grape wagon. Tom, echoing my thoughts almost immediately makes me think this is perhaps more valid then I was giving it credit for.
Tubba – I really disliked Tubba's push onto last. All of the content that was flying around and in that 280 post that's what he decides to focus on before he fades back into the shadows?
Killjoy – KJ's posts have been a little too low effort for me. Its pinging me the wrong way and their comments have been almost abrupt. I'm not really sure how else to describe it. Its like instead of developing any ideas he just veers somewhere else. His town read of Rhand in 300 feels bad to me.
Scum
Didn't sort these four.
EtR
Rhand
LnGrrrR
Rumanshi
Tom since you were on the other side of Disinheritance how did you think when I claimed to be a neutral that won with scum? For anyone wondering I pulled this exact same play with Tom, and Tom was town in that game.
I get what you're saying, but I've been thinking about it since I first saw his post in the chat. I initially thought that he was telling the truth about being scum. Then after thinking about it for a bit, I figured no one could be dumb enough to post that they are scum in a chat where both parties alignment isn't known so he had to be town gambiting.
And at this point, I'll just say it since I'm 99.9% to be the lynch. He could be a neutral. His flavor probably has something to do with taking over the family. I don't know what his ability would be when he unlocks it. But by pulling this gambit he can get some town cred (i.e. Why would a scum risk this).
I don't know, I'm just at a loss. There's nothing in the chat that matters or points me in any direction besides his setting up the gambit. I'd like to believe he's town but the push and pull of us gaining abilities when the other dies kind of puts us at odds with each other.
Grape I agree with the Last part, but doesn't a post like Rhand's
Read like much more inside info.
He votes ETR doesn't address his own implication or Toms. But wants to cascade the kill into KA.
Rhand's vote feels opportunistic.
Its a SHADOW GAME.
FFS.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I think its much more likely that the wolves came to town though when this got aired because MAN did a lot of opportunistic votes get thrown out in all directions.
The only thing I can say is that Tom and Last both went into what I might call "Damage control" and sort of attacked this play immediately. They are also the two most active players though.
I feel pretty sure this is not Town Rhand.
Vote Rhand
Scum chat @ you to hammer huh, but you came too late?
I hadn't even looked at the vote count lol. I'm coughing up a rainbow of colors. But thanks for giving me time to reread I guess. Since you're here, can you give me a quick BLUF on the last IRL day?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
What is your actual stance on the EtR thing? Are you townreading EtR and Reaverb, or do you think there's some truth to EtR's response? Given you're calling tom's and LW's reactions "damage control," which implies they're actually guilty. I don't agree with his view of current events, but his paranoia doesn't feel crafted.
Also ngl, I feel like if he rolled scum again after he flopped so hard in Ghostbusters, it would be easier to pick up on.
And even if the wolves have day chat I just don't believe that EtR and Tau fps'd each other into oblivion. I truly don't believe EtR when he says he intended to signal KA and Tubba when the questions are so precisely formatted and generic. Yes I think regardless of what happened the wolves have piled on but I think that EtR is probably just a wolf here.
I'm my own person I can talk about it.
But right now I'm trying to catalog what happened after the claim.
I'm really not sure.
ETR could be scum(He could be a form of lost scum and gone "That's like my role seems legit". ) He could be town.
I think there could be truth to ETR's post. I kind of say it in my sum up. I'm not sure why he didn't question his neighbor more in neighbor chat. I guess his play also tells him something about the alignment.
I think Tau and ETR could both be town and I could see that world. Hell Tau could be scum and knows that ETR is town and will tell the truth about the events that transpired.
Its a possibility that ETR got caught. I remember a game a long time ago which was LOTR themed Mines of Moria to be exact. Anyways, the Town in that game was the Goblins/Orcs and the scum was the Fellowship. Someone, day one asked for a race flavor claim and someone claimed Hobbit, they were instantly lynched. I was really sure that they were town and that they couldn't have made that mistake. They were scum and they did just screw up that badly.
Consequently I've run this gambit with Tom. He was town and didn't out me to the town. In fact Sir Chris said if the person was scum they would have instantly claimed and gotten the free town points. I think Sir Chris was right on that. This play isn't nearly as clever as I thought then, and I question if it worked here.
This game is a Normal. The likely setup is 12/4. Scum know who their partners are. Unless something really funky is going on scum know that there will only be 4 mafia players. Its a normal after all.
How in the world is this game going to be balanced with 11/5.
ETR's reasoning of figuring it out actually makes sense to me from a town perspective.
If ANYTHING, I'd say ETR comes out more likely town that Tau does for this.
Tau's play by any stretch of the imagination could not have been calculated for success as town. At least when I made my play with Tom in Disinheritance I got to pick Tom as who I wanted to talk to. Seems like these neighbors started together. It seemed like a good play for a premade mod determined alignment to put a scum member and the lost scum in the same group? What mod makes that decision? None. So, what scum is going to fall for this play? I hope a small minority.
@ETR check with the mods.
#378 Reaverb Tau drops their bomb.
#380 Grapes response seems Genuine.
#381 Rhand says Tau is discrediting all the top town reads.(I'm not sure who was town reading him as top but OK). Tom and Last were like sort of town read. But making it “Sow” confusion on day one on post 378. Really now rhand?
#382 Grape joins the ETR wagon.
#385 Mindreaver says “He will wait for ETR to post” Proceeds to vote him in the next line of text in the same post. Nice waiting there Mindreaver. Gives us the Grape connection with Tau.
#386 Instead of commenting on the Tau post Tubba comes from the shadows to ask Mindreaver about the connection between Grape and Tau.
#388 Rhand pushes Grape as being scum too.
#394 ETR responds, explains he thought it would be the best option. I'm not sure this is accurate. The best play IMO was to talk to his neighbor in the neighbor chat.
#405 ETR's extended plan actually seems pretty decent. I still question holding this info from the town, but ehhh?
#416 Tom goes after mindreaver
#426 Kami claims that lynching ETR is the only course of action. I dislike how sure they are that this is a good play.
#427 Wisp votes Kami due to 426.
#431 Kami says taking out ETR is the only reasonable course. I disagree. ETR has claimed reasons that I can analyze and see if they hold merit. I can also look at the game state and see if I think scum would have fallen for it. I can also attempt to figure out if I think Tau is scum gambiting. There are plenty of other reasonable things to do. I can also ignore the whole thing and hope the Vig/Cop solves it for me.
#440 Vaimes votes ETR says this is correct. If I already wasn't convinced this was not correct, this would have convinced me that it wasn't correct.
#442 Last votes ETR because....
#443 ETR claims.
#458 Grape analyizes things and stuff. Something REASONABLE townies do. Unlike, VOTING IMMEDIATLY.
#467 Rhand joins the wagon with the dumbest reason ever. If anything he's outed himself as not being a PR.
#468 From Tubba has to be the scummiest post that nobody has commented on
#469 Tubba remembers to play for his win con and votes a townie.
#470 Tau unvotes
The Tubba post BTW
My scum team right now consists of Tubba and Rhand.
NVM about this.
Tau confirmed this.
@Tau, I disagree that admitting one's own flaws is a Mafia mindset. I know some people have the idea that you don't care how towny you have to look if you're town, but I think you do. Sure, finding scum is one of the biggest parts of the game, but not getting mislynched is probably 2nd most important. If you are town and go into the thread acting in non-towny ways, to the point where people just write you off, you aren't helping vote analysis after your death, because scum can just say, "Cmon guys, everyone thought he was scummy!"
And maybe I wasn't clear, but 192 isn't all null tells. I directly told Rodemy he's leaning scum there. I also called Grape's jump opportunistic. I don't know how you read that as "null". And then Kami answered my question in the next post.
Speaking of which, Kami originally voted LW for post #57, and then continued to read LW as scum, in spite of LW's continued presence in the thread and willingness to engage pretty much everyone as far as I can see. But he also asks Tom if he should put him on his permascum list. Either Kami is openly wolfing or reading the gamestate way different than me.
@Kami, are you usually a stubborn player who has trouble changing a read once they get it?
Just read Grape's defense of his jump onto LW. I can buy it, I guess. If he's scum, it would be strange for GF to be oblivious enough to jump on nakedly but shrewd enough to come up with that defense.
@Tau, two top townreads are already mentioned, LW and Tom for now. (As of post 353). Two top scumreads are Kami and ... I probably would've said Grape a few posts ago, but I'll move him up a notch and put Rodemy.
Also, lol on your color coding. I notice there's no color for "good play". Seems your reading might be a bit biased. Sometimes I don't bring a question back up because it's been answered.
You're completely misreading my comment on Tubba being quiet. My point is that sometimes, players are quiet, and they aren't scum because of it, ESPECIALLY when it's D1. Now, if it's D3 and he's still quiet, sure I'll be worried. But D1, eh, it's something to notice but that's it. Then you say I make no attempt to understand the push on LW, but me commenting on that is my way of putting it out in the open for people to comment on in the first place! Like, why do you think I'm airing the various votes on the wagon and calling attention to it?
And then there's #378 which.... *head asplode*
ETR's explanation for why he didn't just first post share that Tau claimed scum makes no sense. And it's 5 AM now so I'll catch up on the rest tomorrow.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
is more like a frustration vote on ETR I still don't want him lynched yet
unvote:
With that and the way the wagon developed... I'm wondering if there's not a town!EtR here.
@DV: Talk to me about Rhand. Is it just how he entered the EtR wagon or is there more to it?
Anyway I'm not completely opposed to the idea of town EtR but the changing who he meant to indicate is a really bad reason to think that. I can buy him wanting to play it close to the chest but that still leaves his catch up not making any sense.
No...
It doesn’t fit with what I’ve seen of scumTau, and on top of that it seems like a ridiculous gambit for scum to pull day one.
It also doesn’t make sense to me for townEtR to not out claimed scum right away. That plan is even more likely to backfire than Tau’s original one.
I think we need to flip one of them, and EtR seems the more likely scum between the two.