"Rodemy is still obviously town and it doesn't clear lngrrr but just wanted you guys to have full info"
- Scum Chris epic evil plan to DISCREDIT RODEMY aww yeah.
<_<.
I am sorry I know I can be a bit aggressive sometimes but that's a really weak line of thought. I only am harsh about this because I want your brain power used on something useful. Your vote seems useful for solving though so that's good. But I didn't spend all of yesterday saving town osi and lynching my day chat scum buddy to claim bp for another scum buddy! At that point we're in full on bus mode HYPE.
Shrug, I mean in game you can’t reallly say “i’d Never do this as scum” because it holds next to no credibility. But that is a discussion for post game I guess.
Onto tubba.
I’ll post my thoughts on him tonight when I get to my laptop.
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Thank you for choosing
Rodemy Pizza
It’s not the best choice, but it’s a choice nonetheless
Agenda:
>Closely analyze LnGrrrR's posts today. Same with Vaimes.
>Reevaluate Tubba's read of my slot, as I don't believe we've even interacted yet.
>Actually read Kami's posts closely (I find his and Osie's posts really difficult to read for some reason...)
>Sort Tom and Osie, probably through sorting Osie, if that's possible.
My current team's Tom/Kami/Tubba.
But I lack reads on LnGrrrR and Vaimes. I have reason to believe everyone else is town, though reasons for some are fairly weak or associative.
I'll try to sort the claims later. Something doesn't feel right though.
A reads list is well overdue, I'll get to that later too.
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When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
Deceased: Rhand - Town Vanilla. Lastwhisper - Town Bodyguard.
Anak - 1-shot Mafia Back-up; allows mafia to chat during the day while alive.
Living: Highroller/RE - Neighbors (night chat only); unlocks unknown ability when the other dies. KJ - Investigative (?). [N0 Grapefruit is town] Sir Chris - BP; is notified when attacked/BP is lost. [attacked N2] Rodemy - 1-shot Jailkeeper [jailed LnGrrrR N2] Vez - x-shot Roleblocker [N1 roleblocked tom, N2 roleblocked osie] Osie - Vanilla.
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@KamikazeArchon Hi! Quick question for you: Why was it so important for RE to vote Anak EoD given the movement of the train was in that direction? You seemed quite bothered and were insistent on this.
We had less than 3 hours to deadline. I just came off a win as scum in GB, where we won in part due to multiple no-kill days. One of them literally had someone miss the hammer vote timing by minutes, and the host (rightly) did not count it. I am very paranoid about no-kills.
We have a flipped bodyguard, a claimed jailer, a claimed RB, and a claimed bulletproof. It is entirely unreasonable for all four of those to be town. I would actually be surprised if even three of those are town. Two protective/disruptives is reasonable, more than that is pushing it.
I think it's the right time to claim this: I am a vig. I attempted to shoot LnGrrrR last night. It failed. This supports Rodemy's action claim, so I don't believe Rodemy is lying about the role.
What worlds are possible given that info?
Rodemy is scum jailer -> LnGrrrR is town. But why would scum!Rodemy jail that particular target? The player hasn't been strongly active, I haven't seen any PR breadcrumbing; it feels like an odd choice.
Rodemy is town jailer -> One or both of Vezok and Chris are lying.
Looking at the case of only one lying:
Chris telling the truth -> In this world, Rodemy jailed LnGrrrR, but a different mafia fired the kill at Chris. Vezok may or may not be lying about his role and actions, but would definitely be lying about alignment. Scum RBing Osie is plausible here, as a high-activity "dangerous" player. Vezok would in this case also be making a "light" gambit; if Osie flips town, LnGrrrR or someone else flips scum, etc., it's not inherently a solid "vezok must be scum" signal; there's plausible deniability.
Vezok telling the truth -> In this world, either LnGrrrR or Osie attempted to fire the kill, and were stopped by the RB or the Jail. Chris is lying about having an inbound kill. What I don't see is why Chris would do that. We would have to postulate scum!LnGrrrR, since the only reason to for scum!Chris to pull aggro off him is to save a scumbuddy. Also in this world, scum!chris was a major factor in getting scum!Anak killed, which basically requires scum!Osie because otherwise there's no point; so this basically works only if the scumteam is exactly LnGrrrR, Osie, Chris, Anak, and if Chris is willing to blatantly tie himself to all surviving scumbuddies.
Looking mechanically, yes I recognize the limitations of setup gaming, but it's still a nonzero signal. A jailer and RB on the same team feels unusually strong, and unusually redundant, particularly for a Normal. There's a bit of a wildcard in that we don't know if we have a true doc. LW's role strongly implies that there's a town targeted protective role somewhere. A jailer would fill that role under any reasonable interpretation of LW's ability text. If we don't have a true doc, Rodemy is strongly likely to be town, and that again strongly suggests Vezok is scum. I suspect that a true doc would have CC'ed Rodemy by now, so I'm going to proceed on the presumption we don't have one.
Now, if Vezok is scum, why does Vezok say that he RB'ed osie?
- If the action is completely false, then it puts Vezok at risk of investigative counterclaim (tracker, watcher). So vezok probably did target Osie.
- Also, vezok looks like he's strongly trying to use this to go on osie specifically. The combination of those two suggests in this world, osie is town, not a scumbuddy.
- If LnGrrrR is town, again there's no reason to push against the wagon. This would be an easy pickup for scum and vezok could have just gone with the flow.
In summary, I'm seeing a world where vezok and LnGrrrR are scum, rodemy and osie are town.
Verification: does the setup-gaming reasonably match with the behavior-gaming? I think so. I already had LnGrrrR at scum. I already had Rodemy at town. Vezok and osie are uncertain, but the "which actions make sense" at the start of the post supports this theory.
In this world, Chris is still a tossup mechanically but is town behaviorally. Given that I exist, I can see scum!BP being a thing; I can also see town!BP being a thing especially if mafia have any sort of extra kill, or an SK is real. But in this world, I don't see Chris doing what he did Day 2, because that would mean he saved town!Osie to kill scum!Anak.
So, combining all this and the other things we have:
scum: vezok, lngr
town: me, town, osie, tom, chris, kj, gf
unknown: tubba, highroller, re, vaimes
If I had to pick one from the unknown for the last scum, I'd go with vaimes.
Additional thoughts: What would have to happen for lngr to be town? I think the only world in which that works is one where chris and vezok are both town - so rodemy is scum, and then we have what, a town RB? A scum jailer? and no doc CC despite LW's role existing? It's theoretically possible but I find it quite implausible.
That also means the safest kill today is still lngr.
vote LnGrrrR
Should be at K-2. Personally I am quite fine with a relatively short Day - let people get their thoughts out, but there's no need to take forever to hash it out.
I mean, the option that goes along with him not believing it is just saying stuff to go with blustery confidence im scum so you should wait to see if he just keeps pushing me and looking for connections or is actually thinking things through
But now you have to watch how he reacts to being called out too so that should be fun
Jesus Tom. You're spilling all the beans.
I count probably 8 or 9 people in this thread that I know, that know Tom well enough, to know that we aren't gonna get a good read on him in the first few pages, even when he does something ridiculously scummy. Fair enough?
So is it necessary to actually say that in thread?
Now, the only two people who spoke up about that fact, when Tom did his PR-fishing (which wasn't helpful, especially because the follow up made it super obvious he found one (or did he? Or does LW want scum to think so? WIFOM fo dayz)) were Grape and Rhand.
So in the worlds where I see Tom is scum, doing some kind of weirdo gambit (which to be fair is in his wheelhouse), I don't see Rhand proclaiming him town and also being a scumbuddy. I think that we would see buddies distancing themselves from something like that, which makes Grape's defense a little harder to swallow (he's probably town, BUT TWO RED FLAGS). That's a fence sit if I've ever seen one. Combined with his opportunistic 4th vote on LW, to keep that wagon rolling, doesn't look good.
In the world where Tom is town and is just being Tom, Rhand's read is probably not alignment indicative either way. Scum could be buddying, or town could just be not "reading tom at level 0". Grape's comment still looks gross. Like "here is a little shade for tom, who is probably town"? I don't think that comes from town mindset. Like, I just don't see how it's helpful to state that.
Anyway, my take-away at the moment was I don't like Grape.
So my question for Grape is, when will you share what these red flags are? Can it be now?
I still had my doubts about grape, but this post kinda clears him.
Theres a very simple meta for reading Riku, if he regularly makes posts, argues with people, and just calls himself town constantly, hes 99% just town
if he pops in for 1 or 2 posts every couple of days, then you just burn him at the stake
I'm really struggling with this one. On the one hand, you seem to know Riku enough that this might be valuable insight, but I'm struck how damning it is for somebody who hasn't posted much.
Like, I have you in my town column, but if you're both scum, this reads like frustration at a buddy for not posting. I don't think you make this post if you're scum and Riku isn't, that would be super obvious.
What was the purpose behind posting this? Wouldn't it have been more effective to wait a while, in the world where you are town and you think he's scum?
This is shading on my slot. You can make your own conclusions, I just think it's worth it to mention it.
Immediate thoughts are: ETR scum probably no matter what. I will wait for him to post, because I don't want to taint his answers with my own thoughts.
Unvote, Vote ETR
Also, is Tau is scum, Grape is too.
What ties Grape and Tau together for you?
Only in the situation where Tau is scum and making some crazy gambit, trying to get town!ETR killed. In that world, which is not something I believe in btw, I see it as a way of discrediting the arguments against Grape (Rhand brought the "tell" case against Grape, Tom defended it and tied me as Grape's scumbuddy, and Whisper was also vocal about it). I think that's enough coincidence to point to coordination between Grape and Tau.
But like I said, I don't believe that at the moment. It might be WIFOM, but I can't see scum!tau taking such a risk just to kill a town!etr on day 1. *MAYBE* he would if he thought he could discredit Tom/Rhand/Whisper enough to get suspicion off Grape. There is also a world where Tau and LnGrrR are scum together, and Tau is trying to stop that wagon, but the inclusion of Rhand doesn't make sense there. I'm also not sure LnGrrR's wagon is at the point where I'd make a gambit to stop it. I know I'm not Tau, but I just don't see it.
*PARAGRAPH REDACTED UNTIL ETR POSTS*
In any case, ETR and Tau can't both be telling the truth right now.
@KJ - What are your thoughts on Tau's claim?
Tau possible scum? Not sure what to make of this, but the tone is pretty off.
KJ - I was reading your breadcrumbs early, and I actually thought you were going to counterclaim the neighbors (I thought you were nieghbors with Grape before Tau did his thing; hence why I was asking you about it specifically), but the grape reveal makes more sense.
Grape - Cleared by KJ, who I believe
Whisper - Could be powerwolfing, but we've mind melded enough on Kami and ETR/Tau that I'm fairly confident you're town.
Tom - I'm pretty sure you're town, but I'm waiting for your argument against me before commenting further here. There is one point that I want to see if you address.
Rhand - I had you higher as a townread, but I don't quite know what D_V's attack on your signifies. Gut feel was scum busing.
GJ/LnGrrR/Tubba/Vaimes/Rodemy - Nulls for now.
D_V - Your entrance was a vast improvement in the slot, but I have to say "remember when" is the lowest form of conversation. Instead of taking on Tau/ETR with your own opinions, you're telling us about all the other games and gambits and other people's opinions. That doesn't ring true for me.
Riku - I had you lower, because I wasn't a fan of the interactions early with whisper. Specifically your defense of his meta read against you. But since then, you're been MIA, so you can stay just below my nulls for now.
Tau - The only thing keeping you from my scum pile is that I think ETR is more likely scum between the two of you. Both of you definitely lied, and neither of you played that the way I'd hope town does. Up until your claim, I had you in the nulls.
ETR - I do not think you would be dumb enough to vommit out your partners, so there is that. However, even considering that list is wine, I don't know what giving that list accomplishes as town. Did you expect to see scum!tau partner those people? What was your claim going to look like later? Your defense of that list, seems be boiled down to: The lists can't be right because of math/etc, therefore I'm town. Which I don't buy. I think that assumes that scum you wouldn't make up a BS list. The answer wasn't as important as the reason it was given at all.
Kami - I explained this already, but he's so focused on Tau being town and ETR being scum, and "winning the game on day one" that it screams of inside knowledge. Even disregarding the facts that the team he says he's 90% sure of, can't possibly be the right team (from his perspective). I don't see him looking at all the options and giving them thought. Looks like scum distancing from ETR who is likely going down; and if true might give some towncred to Tau/Tubba (because I don't think ETR give us a real team either way you signaled it).
Re-reading Rodemy, Rhand, and LnGrrR atm.
Again, my opinion of this game right now, is that we need to resolve the ETR/Tau situation. My concern is that even if I had my #1 choice (Kami) dead today, I think the mafia just kills somebody in GJ/D_V/Vaimes/Rod/LnGrrR/Tubba; and we have to rehash all the same arguments tomorrow. I would rather analyze results from ETR's flip tomorrow. And yes, I do think ETR is more likely scum than Tau.
Something iffy is going on. KJ-grape might be a pre-planned gambit. There's no way the first scum in his list is Tau. KJ and grape are both town for now due to roles.
Whisper is dead and town. tom can go either way, but I am of the opinion that he is kinda town right now. Rhand is dead and flipped town.
DV/Sir Chris is still up in the air, but I'm still fairly certain he is town. I know I'm town.
That leaves scum in Tau/EtR/Kami/vaimes/tubba/rodemy/lngrr. Etr is kinda clear for Mr's previous post.
Tau is up in the air, Kami is now doubtful to be scum due to being his top scumread. I get bussing, but the way he grabbed onto Kami felt like a natural progression on a mislynch that something to bus a buddy with.
Rodemy is clear cause Rodemy. So scum in Vaimes/lngrr/tubba. Unless the scumteam is exactly this or a bit different due to uncleared, KJ and grape need scrutiny.
I hate how mindreaver is pushing that we need to solve the ETR/Tau thing.
No, no we don't. Its also clear he didn't read diddly squat of what I read, because I've argued a lot more then what he said I did. I used the opinion of Sir Chris and the "Remember when" as supplemental material.
No, you used it to muddy the waters. Half the posts were about a game you played with Tom, neutrals winning with scum, and how TOM would behave in a similar situation, and how Sir Chris felt about it. I'm happy to re-read, but all that extra stuff is just so much fluff. It literally doesn't matter when you and tom did in another game. Show me what ETR or Tau would do; or examples where they've run a gambit; those would be relevant.
A more productive question for you is probably: Why don't we have to solve Tau/ETR? What makes killing Rhand better?
In either your read on Tau or ETR you said, can you expand on that?
Though I really dislike how you somehow
I hate how you used DV in your thoughts on Rhand
I'm also interested in your thoughts on Grr, just because I think he's being typical scum, pop in, just echos, no real stances, just calls the focus on me bad, which is just pure shade, don't know if that was his intention, but that's how it came off to me
Tau self-admitted to lying (deceiving) ETR that he's scum. It's the first thing he did. If I consider that he's really scum trying to trick ETR into incriminating himself so he can spew to the thread what he found, that also would be a lie.
ETR also self-admitted to lying in his response. In the scenarios that he's scum, I don't think he's stupid enough to fall for this, and spew the whole team. In scenarios where he's town, he lied about being scum and what the team was.
So neither been truthful, and if they both end up town here; both are to blame.
As for my Rhand read, D_V replacing in and immediately going after Rhand seemed... strange to me. At this point, it's unlikely that a Rhand wagon gets any traction, so scum reading him and voting him have NO consequences. The only reason I can see for doing that, would be if they were scum partners. That's reflecting in my read. It's obviously a thing that D_V could just be doing something I don't fully understand. So at this point it takes Rhand from blue to light blue.
I have 2 out of 20 posts where I talked about that.
No, you used it to muddy the waters. Half the posts were about a game you played with Tom, neutrals winning with scum, and how TOM would behave in a similar situation, and how Sir Chris felt about it. I'm happy to re-read, but all that extra stuff is just so much fluff. It literally doesn't matter when you and tom did in another game. Show me what ETR or Tau would do; or examples where they've run a gambit; those would be relevant.
I've shown this clearly, and you CLEARLY have no read anything I've written. My iso clearly shows independent thought and analysis, if you had taken any care before you shot of this response you would have seen this. But you didn't. Now I don't know if this is your old age catching up with you or if you're just rusty.
Also, to answer your second question.
A more productive question for you is probably: Why don't we have to solve Tau/ETR? What makes killing Rhand better?
I'm not going to prove a negative. And you're a bastard for trying to argue that way. You are saying that we should solve Etr/Tau. I'm asking why? You're response of "Why not" is a bastard response and you clearly have no interest in developing this reason.
We should kill Rhand, because Rhand is scum. But more importantly we should lynch you, because you're clearly scum or have gotten terrible with your absence.
Unvote Vote Mindreaver
Ugh, fine I'll put in the work to actually quote you in a little bit, and use that to prove my point. And dodging my question is ridiculous dude. I answered why. It gives us the most info on my top scumspects, That's why. Maybe I rambled a bit more than was needed, but there it is. Now why do you believe it's something that can just wait for? Do you think scum kills one of them and solves this for us? Because that would surprise the hell out of me. I mean maybe we can rolecop them; I don't want to know if that's a possibility. Maybe we can figure things out based on their votes eventually? That potentially leaves us with even more headaches (what does it mean if they vote together? etc.
I don't see any way for ETR or Tau to prove that they are town to me over time. Scum!them knows that's the play now. I don't know it that's outside the wheelhouse for either of them.
Tom since you were on the other side of Disinheritance how did you think when I claimed to be a neutral that won with scum? For anyone wondering I pulled this exact same play with Tom, and Tom was town in that game.
I told Tom that I was a neutral survivor that wanted to win with the scum and wanted him to tell his scum buddies this information as well. I also indicated that I "Knew seppel was lying and that I wasn't going to counter claim his buddy".
You can see where he responded to this information by voting Seppel.
I'm not 100% certain to do with the information.
But I feel that if Tom was Town that he would have claimed.
OK smarter people than me discuss.
All of this is about you and Tom and another game. You say you have to think, and then immediately spew this.
For the record even if Wisp's argument was "Even if EtR flips scum it's stupid to assume the list is scum and you should kill me to prove it but killing me is bad because I'm a claimed PR."
It's still Y i k e s.
And for the sake of argument let's say EtR flips scum today. I'm going to push to kill tom tomorrow. The list isn't the most likely answer, but as long as there is a chance it's correct we should pursue it. LW isn't the person I'd choose first off it (tom is the easy first choice) even without the PR claim. If tom flips scum the lol wolves. If tom were to flip town I'd then reevaluate and start digging for wolf reactions with the knowledge that I'm looking for people whose buddy got dunked on but at least didn't ruin the game 100%.
If EtR flips town then we kill Tau. And if he flips town then we learn that yolo gambits are a bad idea.
Grape I agree with the Last part, but doesn't a post like Rhand's
So EtR goes from town Neighbour to town without rolename and an extra hidden ability if his Neighbour dies.
Right...
vote EtR
The ease with which Kami accepts the lynch cascade is very worrysome. Scum if EtR flips scum.
Etr/kami/grape/?
Read like much more inside info.
He votes ETR doesn't address his own implication or Toms. But wants to cascade the kill into KA.
Rhand's vote feels opportunistic.
Some shade for Rhand (prior to you just calling him scum a few posts down). But again, no thoughts given on ETR or Tau, except that "yolo gambits are bad".
Actually, if you're waiting for tom, then never mind.
I'm my own person I can talk about it.
But right now I'm trying to catalog what happened after the claim.
What is your actual stance on the EtR thing? Are you townreading EtR and Reaverb, or do you think there's some truth to EtR's response? Given you're calling tom's and LW's reactions "damage control," which implies they're actually guilty.
I'm really not sure.
ETR could be scum(He could be a form of lost scum and gone "That's like my role seems legit". ) He could be town.
I think there could be truth to ETR's post. I kind of say it in my sum up. I'm not sure why he didn't question his neighbor more in neighbor chat. I guess his play also tells him something about the alignment.
I think Tau and ETR could both be town and I could see that world. Hell Tau could be scum and knows that ETR is town and will tell the truth about the events that transpired.
Its a possibility that ETR got caught. I remember a game a long time ago which was LOTR themed Mines of Moria to be exact. Anyways, the Town in that game was the Goblins/Orcs and the scum was the Fellowship. Someone, day one asked for a race flavor claim and someone claimed Hobbit, they were instantly lynched. I was really sure that they were town and that they couldn't have made that mistake. They were scum and they did just screw up that badly.
Consequently I've run this gambit with Tom. He was town and didn't out me to the town. In fact Sir Chris said if the person was scum they would have instantly claimed and gotten the free town points. I think Sir Chris was right on that. This play isn't nearly as clever as I thought then, and I question if it worked here.
This is a post where you enumerate the options. Only when reminded that you haven't actually weighed in yet. You list the possibilities like everyone else did before you, and then launch back into the analysis of TWO OTHER games, and give us what Sir Chris thought about your gambit with Tom. I didn't like that you used Sir Chris's quote in another game to clear ETR (scum ETR would have just claimed). I didn't like that you used the LotR game to shade ETR (sometimes scum just is stupid). But nowhere do you say what you believe.
I'm going to wait for Tom to get back to me and I'm going to read some more, but man I think lynching ETR is a low percent play.
I think its much more likely that the wolves came to town though when this got aired because MAN did a lot of opportunistic votes get thrown out in all directions.
The only thing I can say is that Tom and Last both went into what I might call "Damage control" and sort of attacked this play immediately. They are also the two most active players though.
I feel pretty sure this is not Town Rhand. Vote Rhand
The very next post you declare that ETR/Tau is low percent, so shouldn't be figured out. And you move onto Rhand. Without every giving a solid read on Tau or ETR or sharing what YOU think about THIS game.
So THAT my friend, is why I characterized your play as "remember when". and I think it's completely accurate.
Don't really know what to make of this. It sounds kinda fabricated in a scum-scum sort of way, but I'm townreading that slot too much.
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Forgot to mention that osie slot was barely mentioned by M1ndreaver, but it's understandable as GJ replaced in after a while. So the slot is still viable in the scum team configuration which complicates things.
All I got from this is that I want Vaimes blood and that Kami and EtR\RE slot go up in rankings.
Also grape/KJ gambit is still a real possibility and I'm not a fan of it. M1ndreaver's attack is really vicious in the beginning, not even close to his next attacks. I know that when I'm bussing I tend to overcompensate and the accusations came out more savage. I assume other players do the same.
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Additional thoughts: What would have to happen for lngr to be town? I think the only world in which that works is one where chris and vezok are both town - so rodemy is scum, and then we have what, a town RB? A scum jailer? and no doc CC despite LW's role existing? It's theoretically possible but I find it quite implausible.
That also means the safest kill today is still lngr.
vote LnGrrrR
Should be at K-2. Personally I am quite fine with a relatively short Day - let people get their thoughts out, but there's no need to take forever to hash it out.
I just saw KA claim and it mostly supports my MR analysis. KA is town and everyone who thinks differently isn't paying attention.
Rodemy is almost clear. We have confirmation for his role from another place.
I know you don't know it, but I know I'm town so that only leaves Sir Chris as potentially lying. But the slot has been pretty town.
@Sir Chris: Can we get some flavour on why you are bulletproof?
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I can actually get behind a scum vaimes. But it’s for a really specific reason.
One town game of vaimes i played with he specifically mentioned he is almost always top poster as town: he mad a point of it to clear himself from being scum so.
I have seen.. very little from vaimes this game. And that’s odd. He normally stands out in every game I play with him,
But this has been... bleh?
If grape is scum that certainly confirms kJ as scum.
Kami’s vig claim is 100% townie. Scum wouldn’t clear town just to lynch one of their own. Unless he is super bussing and trying to skip to endgame.
Idk, there is something about this whole thing that just seems... off.
Chris could most definitely be the liar in this batch. Which means possibly vezok is on a team with him due to pirates.
And if all else fails it’s Tom!
God why the heck are so many of you so scummy
I think our best bet is lynching grr toDay and then vezok tomorrow. vezok is scum we go for Chris. Gg town.
But, I am not even sure about vezok and Chris which means there could probably be scum in tubba re, and Tom.
The only thing about Chris is bulletproof is inherently scum. Especially infinite bullproof.
Also, in a mafia themed game, likelihood of a godfather is high. So grape could be a godfather. His posts aren’t exactly scummy though so that is a... thing.
So Chris being bulletproof means nothing in my head.
But there is also still vaimes. But that reason isn’t Really enough for me to put him on the top of my list.
I’m rambling but hey, grr. Die.
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Thank you for choosing
Rodemy Pizza
It’s not the best choice, but it’s a choice nonetheless
I gave the flavor reason: I am always being protected as the grandson.
Hmm...
A vig in 16 certainly makes all of the sense in the world. Not sure what to think of the fact that literally no one (to my knowledge) questioned Rodemy ever about the claim but Kamikaze spent like 3 paragraphs going over scenarios. Rodemy is for sure town and that's obvious.
Now thinking a bodyguard/1 time jailkeeper is enough protection in a game of 16 is...baffling to me.
But this is interesting, my suspects from yesterday are claiming power. That's probably a very good sign for my ability to narrow from here. It probably means Osi is really, super town because I wasn't targeted due to being super accurate on reads.
And maybe I overplayed to high heaven and should have just let Lgrrr die quietly tbf lol
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Additional thoughts: What would have to happen for lngr to be town? I think the only world in which that works is one where chris and vezok are both town - so rodemy is scum, and then we have what, a town RB? A scum jailer? and no doc CC despite LW's role existing? It's theoretically possible but I find it quite implausible.
That also means the safest kill today is still lngr.
vote LnGrrrR
Should be at K-2. Personally I am quite fine with a relatively short Day - let people get their thoughts out, but there's no need to take forever to hash it out.
I believe your claim off hand but this logic is just a disaster.
Mechnically speaking:
KA can be vig
I can be BP
Rodemy can be JK
Vezok can be RB
Lngrrr can be town
all of these can be true. Balance and game setup aside, there are no worlds that are violated by this being true.
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How does everyone feel about the fact that RE1031 for my role wrong?
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How does everyone feel about the fact that RE1031 for my role wrong?
If you mean that you haven't lost your BP, I was writing based off memory + used a little logic of my own. It didn't make sense for your BP to be more than one-shot, and usually when you're notified that you've been attacked, there has to be some other reason than the simple fact it happened. Protected targets of night kills aren't usually notified that they were attacked. A BP upon losing their BP, though, might.
What do you think about that, though? : )
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When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
Why did you feel the need to take away my opportunity to get reads on people based off what you actually thought?
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Additional thoughts: What would have to happen for lngr to be town? I think the only world in which that works is one where chris and vezok are both town - so rodemy is scum, and then we have what, a town RB? A scum jailer? and no doc CC despite LW's role existing? It's theoretically possible but I find it quite implausible.
That also means the safest kill today is still lngr.
vote LnGrrrR
Should be at K-2. Personally I am quite fine with a relatively short Day - let people get their thoughts out, but there's no need to take forever to hash it out.
I believe your claim off hand but this logic is just a disaster.
Mechnically speaking:
KA can be vig
I can be BP
Rodemy can be JK
Vezok can be RB
Lngrrr can be town
all of these can be true. Balance and game setup aside, there are no worlds that are violated by this being true.
I'm not entirely sure what you're saying so I'll elaborate on my own thoughts here. I was compressing both behavioral and mechanical stuff into one.
If LnGrrrR is town, and you are scum, deterring that wagon by claiming BP is a negative play. Similar reasoning for vezok. Hence the "chris and vezok are both town".
That puts bodyguard + RB + BP on one team, and I think that's already heavy with protection/disruption - adding a JK there is implausible, hence "a scum jailer".
But if jailer is scum then we should have a doc (to interact with LW). And a doc seeing a Jailer claim should CC, because that's dual "full" protectives - on top of the already flipped bodyguard. So this would require us to have a doc that just decided to ignore that. Also, it means we have a bodyguard + RB + BP + doc on one team.
It's not strictly impossible, but it is implausible.
Or there are other weird worlds where one of my assumptions is violated - for example, LW could have the "can't be protected" clause, and there's no town protective. But this would be deeply weird. Hosts don't usually create useless role traits. Mafia would never both jail and NK someone. So the role would have the sole interaction of a jail happening to hit LW at the same time as a vig? That would be such an odd design that again I find it implausible.
Also I have ignored SKs, and I think the low kill numbers back that up. Yes we could in theory have gotten incredibly lucky with target overlap and protections and such, but that also seems low probability, and would be self-revealing later anyway.
I think vezok's reaction is suspect. A town RBer should be much more suspicious of a claimed town jailer. Most players would consider that a hard CC or close to it.
I think vezok's reaction is suspect. A town RBer should be much more suspicious of a claimed town jailer. Most players would consider that a hard CC or close to it.
Then why would scum vezo claim it after?
So weird.
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I think vezok's reaction is suspect. A town RBer should be much more suspicious of a claimed town jailer. Most players would consider that a hard CC or close to it.
Maybe. I get a lot of flak for not being suspicious enough of claims that might not make sense with mine
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I think vezok's reaction is suspect. A town RBer should be much more suspicious of a claimed town jailer. Most players would consider that a hard CC or close to it.
Then why would scum vezo claim it after?
So weird.
Good question. Simplest answer is just not considering that problem, but that's not a clean explanation. I'll have to think about that.
No. My point was KA was using the lack of a doc claim as evidence that your claim was more likely to be both true and town aligned. I don't think that's the case.
1-shot Jailer + RB is less implausible than full-jailer + full-RB. So the sections where I say "this combination doesn't make sense" are weaker conclusions.
All of my analysis is essentially a series of heuristics and probabilities, the 1-shot-ness changes some of the probabilities, so the resulting conclusion is weaker.
1-shot Jailer + RB is less implausible than full-jailer + full-RB. So the sections where I say "this combination doesn't make sense" are weaker conclusions.
All of my analysis is essentially a series of heuristics and probabilities, the 1-shot-ness changes some of the probabilities, so the resulting conclusion is weaker.
English please
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Rodemy Pizza
It’s not the best choice, but it’s a choice nonetheless
If vez is an unlimited roleblocker, and if the somewhat agreed-upon PoE is correct in that there is at least one scum in [Tubba, LnGrrrR, Vaimes], AND we get one of them within the next two days, I don't think scum leaves him alive.
That's assuming scum don't have a means to consistently roleblock him.
Correct me if I'm wrong though.
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I can provide a set up (one Bur cohosted), where there was a town 3-shot roleblocker and a 1-shot town jailkeeper in the form of a JOAT. https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1662537
(If you're curious. It was a 16 player game; 12 town, 4 mafia.)
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It's doubtful they'd have a tool that could actually block his block. Usually blocks would "fire" simultaneously and both would happen. So if A and B are roleblockers and A targets B and B targets C then B and C would be successfully blocked.
It's not universal but it's a common interpretation.
@Rod KA's big analysis post assumed you were a full JK and drew different conclusions about the setup because of it.
Ummm Vez how would Osie know that it was you who blocked him?
Good catch Grapefruit!
Unvote. So, quick metagame question: what is the probability on this site of there being two roleblockers in a game who are both town? Seems like we should be lynching one of them today.
But then we also have Sir Chris, who's claiming a role I find difficult to believe, and KamikazeArchon, whom I believe is clearly mafia. So who to vote for?
Sir Chris: You said if we thought osieorb was mafia then ho ho ho you had a big surprise. I assumed you were breadcrumbing, but you claimed bulletproof. So what was the big surprise you were being all ominous about?
I think KA is pretty obviously town with the Vig claim. I kept waiting for a vig and was surprised at the lack of extra bodies N1 and a body period N2.
So quick iso of highroller annnd I don’t think this guy is town.
Grr can wait if nobody wants to lynch him but his vote on grr with a quick unvote the next post ON TOP of trying to metagame and put two highly townread players against each other just reeeeks of scumplay.
vote highroller
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It’s not the best choice, but it’s a choice nonetheless
Ummm Vez how would Osie know that it was you who blocked him?
Good catch Grapefruit!
Unvote. So, quick metagame question: what is the probability on this site of there being two roleblockers in a game who are both town? Seems like we should be lynching one of them today.
But then we also have Sir Chris, who's claiming a role I find difficult to believe, and KamikazeArchon, whom I believe is clearly mafia. So who to vote for?
Sir Chris: You said if we thought osieorb was mafia then ho ho ho you had a big surprise. I assumed you were breadcrumbing, but you claimed bulletproof. So what was the big surprise you were being all ominous about?
I just meant I wasn't letting Osi be lynched.
DV was voting osi no bread crumbs to be had.
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I think KA is pretty obviously town with the Vig claim. I kept waiting for a vig and was surprised at the lack of extra bodies N1 and a body period N2.
I think KA is pretty obviously town with the Vig claim. I kept waiting for a vig and was surprised at the lack of extra bodies N1 and a body period N2.
Actually @KA why didn't you shoot N1?
I did. I shot LastWhisper.
Ho?
Ho ho ho?
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I think KA is pretty obviously town with the Vig claim. I kept waiting for a vig and was surprised at the lack of extra bodies N1 and a body period N2.
Yeah. I didn't claim it because, given the flip, it gave exactly zero info. Did I and scum both target him? Did scum target someone else that he protected, and my shot was just a blast at a corpse? Did scum get roleblocked and it was just my shot? No idea and no way to tell.
Yeah. I didn't claim it because, given the flip, it gave exactly zero info. Did I and scum both target him? Did scum target someone else that he protected, and my shot was just a blast at a corpse? Did scum get roleblocked and it was just my shot? No idea and no way to tell.
Okay why did you shoot Wisp? Did the Rhand flip not do enough to convince you the EtR team wasn't accurate? Why not shoot tom if that was the motivation?
Shrug, I mean in game you can’t reallly say “i’d Never do this as scum” because it holds next to no credibility. But that is a discussion for post game I guess.
Onto tubba.
I’ll post my thoughts on him tonight when I get to my laptop.
>Closely analyze LnGrrrR's posts today. Same with Vaimes.
>Reevaluate Tubba's read of my slot, as I don't believe we've even interacted yet.
>Actually read Kami's posts closely (I find his and Osie's posts really difficult to read for some reason...)
>Sort Tom and Osie, probably through sorting Osie, if that's possible.
My current team's Tom/Kami/Tubba.
But I lack reads on LnGrrrR and Vaimes. I have reason to believe everyone else is town, though reasons for some are fairly weak or associative.
I'll try to sort the claims later. Something doesn't feel right though.
A reads list is well overdue, I'll get to that later too.
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Rhand - Town Vanilla.
Lastwhisper - Town Bodyguard.
Anak - 1-shot Mafia Back-up; allows mafia to chat during the day while alive.
Living:
Highroller/RE - Neighbors (night chat only); unlocks unknown ability when the other dies.
KJ - Investigative (?). [N0 Grapefruit is town]
Sir Chris - BP; is notified when attacked/BP is lost. [attacked N2]
Rodemy - 1-shot Jailkeeper [jailed LnGrrrR N2]
Vez - x-shot Roleblocker [N1 roleblocked tom, N2 roleblocked osie]
Osie - Vanilla.
We have a flipped bodyguard, a claimed jailer, a claimed RB, and a claimed bulletproof. It is entirely unreasonable for all four of those to be town. I would actually be surprised if even three of those are town. Two protective/disruptives is reasonable, more than that is pushing it.
I think it's the right time to claim this: I am a vig. I attempted to shoot LnGrrrR last night. It failed. This supports Rodemy's action claim, so I don't believe Rodemy is lying about the role.
What worlds are possible given that info?
Rodemy is scum jailer -> LnGrrrR is town. But why would scum!Rodemy jail that particular target? The player hasn't been strongly active, I haven't seen any PR breadcrumbing; it feels like an odd choice.
Rodemy is town jailer -> One or both of Vezok and Chris are lying.
Looking at the case of only one lying:
Chris telling the truth -> In this world, Rodemy jailed LnGrrrR, but a different mafia fired the kill at Chris. Vezok may or may not be lying about his role and actions, but would definitely be lying about alignment. Scum RBing Osie is plausible here, as a high-activity "dangerous" player. Vezok would in this case also be making a "light" gambit; if Osie flips town, LnGrrrR or someone else flips scum, etc., it's not inherently a solid "vezok must be scum" signal; there's plausible deniability.
Vezok telling the truth -> In this world, either LnGrrrR or Osie attempted to fire the kill, and were stopped by the RB or the Jail. Chris is lying about having an inbound kill. What I don't see is why Chris would do that. We would have to postulate scum!LnGrrrR, since the only reason to for scum!Chris to pull aggro off him is to save a scumbuddy. Also in this world, scum!chris was a major factor in getting scum!Anak killed, which basically requires scum!Osie because otherwise there's no point; so this basically works only if the scumteam is exactly LnGrrrR, Osie, Chris, Anak, and if Chris is willing to blatantly tie himself to all surviving scumbuddies.
Looking mechanically, yes I recognize the limitations of setup gaming, but it's still a nonzero signal. A jailer and RB on the same team feels unusually strong, and unusually redundant, particularly for a Normal. There's a bit of a wildcard in that we don't know if we have a true doc. LW's role strongly implies that there's a town targeted protective role somewhere. A jailer would fill that role under any reasonable interpretation of LW's ability text. If we don't have a true doc, Rodemy is strongly likely to be town, and that again strongly suggests Vezok is scum. I suspect that a true doc would have CC'ed Rodemy by now, so I'm going to proceed on the presumption we don't have one.
Now, if Vezok is scum, why does Vezok say that he RB'ed osie?
- If the action is completely false, then it puts Vezok at risk of investigative counterclaim (tracker, watcher). So vezok probably did target Osie.
- Also, vezok looks like he's strongly trying to use this to go on osie specifically. The combination of those two suggests in this world, osie is town, not a scumbuddy.
- If LnGrrrR is town, again there's no reason to push against the wagon. This would be an easy pickup for scum and vezok could have just gone with the flow.
In summary, I'm seeing a world where vezok and LnGrrrR are scum, rodemy and osie are town.
Verification: does the setup-gaming reasonably match with the behavior-gaming? I think so. I already had LnGrrrR at scum. I already had Rodemy at town. Vezok and osie are uncertain, but the "which actions make sense" at the start of the post supports this theory.
In this world, Chris is still a tossup mechanically but is town behaviorally. Given that I exist, I can see scum!BP being a thing; I can also see town!BP being a thing especially if mafia have any sort of extra kill, or an SK is real. But in this world, I don't see Chris doing what he did Day 2, because that would mean he saved town!Osie to kill scum!Anak.
So, combining all this and the other things we have:
scum: vezok, lngr
town: me, town, osie, tom, chris, kj, gf
unknown: tubba, highroller, re, vaimes
If I had to pick one from the unknown for the last scum, I'd go with vaimes.
That also means the safest kill today is still lngr.
vote LnGrrrR
Should be at K-2. Personally I am quite fine with a relatively short Day - let people get their thoughts out, but there's no need to take forever to hash it out.
This is a weird mention of Vaimes. Not enough for anything, but I think it should be noted.
I still had my doubts about grape, but this post kinda clears him.
This is shading on my slot. You can make your own conclusions, I just think it's worth it to mention it.
This kinda clears EtR slot. I just don't see this vote as bussing. It's -EV if EtR was scum for so many reasons.
Tau possible scum? Not sure what to make of this, but the tone is pretty off.
Something iffy is going on. KJ-grape might be a pre-planned gambit. There's no way the first scum in his list is Tau. KJ and grape are both town for now due to roles.
Whisper is dead and town. tom can go either way, but I am of the opinion that he is kinda town right now. Rhand is dead and flipped town.
DV/Sir Chris is still up in the air, but I'm still fairly certain he is town. I know I'm town.
That leaves scum in Tau/EtR/Kami/vaimes/tubba/rodemy/lngrr. Etr is kinda clear for Mr's previous post.
Tau is up in the air, Kami is now doubtful to be scum due to being his top scumread. I get bussing, but the way he grabbed onto Kami felt like a natural progression on a mislynch that something to bus a buddy with.
Rodemy is clear cause Rodemy. So scum in Vaimes/lngrr/tubba. Unless the scumteam is exactly this or a bit different due to uncleared, KJ and grape need scrutiny.
DV being scum is less and less viable.
Scum have a rolecop.
Don't really know what to make of this. It sounds kinda fabricated in a scum-scum sort of way, but I'm townreading that slot too much.
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All I got from this is that I want Vaimes blood and that Kami and EtR\RE slot go up in rankings.
Also grape/KJ gambit is still a real possibility and I'm not a fan of it. M1ndreaver's attack is really vicious in the beginning, not even close to his next attacks. I know that when I'm bussing I tend to overcompensate and the accusations came out more savage. I assume other players do the same.
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I just saw KA claim and it mostly supports my MR analysis. KA is town and everyone who thinks differently isn't paying attention.
Rodemy is almost clear. We have confirmation for his role from another place.
I know you don't know it, but I know I'm town so that only leaves Sir Chris as potentially lying. But the slot has been pretty town.
@Sir Chris: Can we get some flavour on why you are bulletproof?
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One town game of vaimes i played with he specifically mentioned he is almost always top poster as town: he mad a point of it to clear himself from being scum so.
I have seen.. very little from vaimes this game. And that’s odd. He normally stands out in every game I play with him,
But this has been... bleh?
If grape is scum that certainly confirms kJ as scum.
Kami’s vig claim is 100% townie. Scum wouldn’t clear town just to lynch one of their own. Unless he is super bussing and trying to skip to endgame.
Idk, there is something about this whole thing that just seems... off.
Chris could most definitely be the liar in this batch. Which means possibly vezok is on a team with him due to pirates.
And if all else fails it’s Tom!
God why the heck are so many of you so scummy
I think our best bet is lynching grr toDay and then vezok tomorrow. vezok is scum we go for Chris. Gg town.
But, I am not even sure about vezok and Chris which means there could probably be scum in tubba re, and Tom.
The only thing about Chris is bulletproof is inherently scum. Especially infinite bullproof.
Also, in a mafia themed game, likelihood of a godfather is high. So grape could be a godfather. His posts aren’t exactly scummy though so that is a... thing.
So Chris being bulletproof means nothing in my head.
But there is also still vaimes. But that reason isn’t Really enough for me to put him on the top of my list.
I’m rambling but hey, grr. Die.
Hmm...
A vig in 16 certainly makes all of the sense in the world. Not sure what to think of the fact that literally no one (to my knowledge) questioned Rodemy ever about the claim but Kamikaze spent like 3 paragraphs going over scenarios. Rodemy is for sure town and that's obvious.
Now thinking a bodyguard/1 time jailkeeper is enough protection in a game of 16 is...baffling to me.
But this is interesting, my suspects from yesterday are claiming power. That's probably a very good sign for my ability to narrow from here. It probably means Osi is really, super town because I wasn't targeted due to being super accurate on reads.
And maybe I overplayed to high heaven and should have just let Lgrrr die quietly tbf lol
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I believe your claim off hand but this logic is just a disaster.
Mechnically speaking:
KA can be vig
I can be BP
Rodemy can be JK
Vezok can be RB
Lngrrr can be town
all of these can be true. Balance and game setup aside, there are no worlds that are violated by this being true.
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What do you think about that, though? : )
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(Or something)
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli.
-Peter Clemenza
LnGrrrR (5): Tubba Fett, Vaimes, Highroller, KamikazeArchon, Rodemy
Osieorb18 (2): tomsloger, vezokpiraka
Vezokpiraka (2): Grapefruit21, osieorb18
Not Voting (4): RE1031, Sir Chris, Killjoy, LnGrrrR
V/LA: -
A replacement for osieorb is being sought out at the moment.
With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Deadline is on April 12th.
If LnGrrrR is town, and you are scum, deterring that wagon by claiming BP is a negative play. Similar reasoning for vezok. Hence the "chris and vezok are both town".
That puts bodyguard + RB + BP on one team, and I think that's already heavy with protection/disruption - adding a JK there is implausible, hence "a scum jailer".
But if jailer is scum then we should have a doc (to interact with LW). And a doc seeing a Jailer claim should CC, because that's dual "full" protectives - on top of the already flipped bodyguard. So this would require us to have a doc that just decided to ignore that. Also, it means we have a bodyguard + RB + BP + doc on one team.
It's not strictly impossible, but it is implausible.
Or there are other weird worlds where one of my assumptions is violated - for example, LW could have the "can't be protected" clause, and there's no town protective. But this would be deeply weird. Hosts don't usually create useless role traits. Mafia would never both jail and NK someone. So the role would have the sole interaction of a jail happening to hit LW at the same time as a vig? That would be such an odd design that again I find it implausible.
Also I have ignored SKs, and I think the low kill numbers back that up. Yes we could in theory have gotten incredibly lucky with target overlap and protections and such, but that also seems low probability, and would be self-revealing later anyway.
I think vezok's reaction is suspect. A town RBer should be much more suspicious of a claimed town jailer. Most players would consider that a hard CC or close to it.
Then why would scum vezo claim it after?
So weird.
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Hes scummy but unless one of rod or chris is lying hes got 2/3 the scum equity via not performing the kill
Am i the only one that maths like that?
Like hes prolly my 3rd highest scumread behaviorally but still
Was thinking of moving to vez just for wagons but meh. Just gonna make this post instead see if we van get 3 wagons going
@KA A full doc and a 1 shot JK can exist. Not with a full RB as well unless the scum team is more powerful than I'd guess.
@Chris are you claiming a full permanent bullet proof? I had initially assumed the same thing that RE did.
Vez still feels wrong to me, but I may be tunneling here.
No. My point was KA was using the lack of a doc claim as evidence that your claim was more likely to be both true and town aligned. I don't think that's the case.
You don’t think there are any protective roles?
Explain?
All of my analysis is essentially a series of heuristics and probabilities, the 1-shot-ness changes some of the probabilities, so the resulting conclusion is weaker.
English please
That's assuming scum don't have a means to consistently roleblock him.
Correct me if I'm wrong though.
https://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=1662537
(If you're curious. It was a 16 player game; 12 town, 4 mafia.)
It's not universal but it's a common interpretation.
@Rod KA's big analysis post assumed you were a full JK and drew different conclusions about the setup because of it.
I'm going to do a quick EtR dive.
Unvote. So, quick metagame question: what is the probability on this site of there being two roleblockers in a game who are both town? Seems like we should be lynching one of them today.
But then we also have Sir Chris, who's claiming a role I find difficult to believe, and KamikazeArchon, whom I believe is clearly mafia. So who to vote for?
Sir Chris: You said if we thought osieorb was mafia then ho ho ho you had a big surprise. I assumed you were breadcrumbing, but you claimed bulletproof. So what was the big surprise you were being all ominous about?
Actually @KA why didn't you shoot N1?
Grr can wait if nobody wants to lynch him but his vote on grr with a quick unvote the next post ON TOP of trying to metagame and put two highly townread players against each other just reeeeks of scumplay.
vote highroller
Not the other way around.
**** I need to sleep.
Gnight
unvote
Vote Grr
I just meant I wasn't letting Osi be lynched.
DV was voting osi no bread crumbs to be had.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Ho ho ho?
Wait what.
Okay why did you shoot Wisp? Did the Rhand flip not do enough to convince you the EtR team wasn't accurate? Why not shoot tom if that was the motivation?