LW what don't you get? Tubba was never scummy. Had a huge consensus that he was bubble up out of nothing and seemed to have real momentum before it all disippated quickly. That feels like an agenda forced wagon if I've ever seen one. I don't actually think we should kill everyone on it. But there is definitely scum who pushed Tubba.
On top of tom's question about all of the other wagons that dissipated quickly why do you see him as town?
His wagon had Tom, Myself, Last and someone else on it.
Who was scummily voting him?
I've seen plenty of wagons form and dissipate this quickly all with town on them. What makes this one special in your mind?
Most people think in black and white, or even gray, but then you have kami, who only thinks in black
Yeah I wouldn't worry about it.
I've written copious amounts for why Kami's logic doesn't hold up and why town might not claim.
Kami isn't interested in addressing any of it, because as I've said Kami isn't interested in getting better at mafia he just wants to echo chamber his own thoughts and ignores everyone else.
I think people overreacted, and if we aren't ending the day tomorrow, I would like to see what Etr is bringing to the table now that he isn't staring down a lynch.
digging last two gj posts. Tubba looking better, ETR should be wagoned on his own merits not a dumb gambit with only suspicious ways to respond lol
Town!EtR would have an extremely obvious and non suspicious way to respond: "Hey all, I'm in a neighborhood with Tau and he claimed scum."
This is not a difficult situation. EtR essentially claimed scum and claimed a scumteam. "But I was only testing" is not a reasonable defense. (And I'm aware that you're not going to agree because you're scum here, but this is really aimed at the townies who still aren't on EtR.)
The rest of the Day is going to be weird because there's really not much to add. Basically anything besides getting votes on EtR is pointless and I doubt that I'm going to get more progress by myself than I already have - I know my skill at "get others to agree with me" is only at a meh level.
Maybe I should just end posts with "EtR delenda est."
i know me and etr are different but i would literally never consider that. And... apparently didnt though i still dont remember and didnt check.
But to do that, hed have to believe tau was truthfully outing himself. Which is almost as silly as believing etr outed himself and his entire team...
I think people overreacted, and if we aren't ending the day tomorrow, I would like to see what Etr is bringing to the table now that he isn't staring down a lynch.
digging last two gj posts. Tubba looking better, ETR should be wagoned on his own merits not a dumb gambit with only suspicious ways to respond lol
Town!EtR would have an extremely obvious and non suspicious way to respond: "Hey all, I'm in a neighborhood with Tau and he claimed scum."
This is not a difficult situation. EtR essentially claimed scum and claimed a scumteam. "But I was only testing" is not a reasonable defense. (And I'm aware that you're not going to agree because you're scum here, but this is really aimed at the townies who still aren't on EtR.)
The rest of the Day is going to be weird because there's really not much to add. Basically anything besides getting votes on EtR is pointless and I doubt that I'm going to get more progress by myself than I already have - I know my skill at "get others to agree with me" is only at a meh level.
Maybe I should just end posts with "EtR delenda est."
i know me and etr are different but i would literally never consider that. And... apparently didnt though i still dont remember and didnt check.
But to do that, hed have to believe tau was truthfully outing himself. Which is almost as silly as believing etr outed himself and his entire team...
Oh i see the problem here...
LOL you and I are just repeating each other at this point and hopping one of us sticks.
Tubba, what makes this like flavorgaming in ghostbusters instead of like [everything dv caused] in ghostbusters?
I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking. In Ghostbusters, Highroller in particular felt that the game could be solved along flavour lines to the exclusion of everything else. Town had an opportunity to disprove it, but thanks to some town lethargy and adroit scumplay, it didn’t happen until much too late.
The current situation feels similar in that we have an opportunity to clear up a confusing issue for town, that if we leave festering only makes preceding days more difficult.
As far as D_V, I alluded to it in Ghostbusters. He’s an agitator, it’s his play style and what seems to work for him. I don’t particularly like it, but it is what it is. His self voting in Ghostbusters did lead to chaos for town to be sure, but it was consistent with his “violently shaking things” approach. I don’t see a corollary here though.
was the correct play in ghostbusters resolving the flavor though, or was it "shut up highroller we dont need to lynch townies based on a crackpot theory"?
I see your point, but I don’t believe it would’ve worked then, and I don’t think it’ll work now. It’s going to be an elephant in the room for the rest of the game, you won’t be able to convince everyone to let it go. If it splits the town block the result will be the same as Ghostbusters, two town cores circling the drain. There were other issues with Ghostbusters as far as power roles, but I think my premise holds water. Note that nothing short of a contrary to flavour flip occurred that the town was able to start functioning cohesively. Did it not feel like a blessing for you as a crossflavour scum?
honestly i thought yall were reslly stupid sbout the whole thing and towntom would habe just yelled at highroller that flavor is never that simple and that was provenby the rhand flip.
It... kinda was simple though scumteam had 1 cult of gozer one ghostbuster one random human and one random ghost lol
And just as any problems there would have been solved by ignoring flavor and lynching scummy people... if theyre both town maybe they can both show it or we flip some wolves that theyre unaligned with...
Its pretty simple stuff you win mafia games by playing mafia
KA I'm curious what are your thoughts if he flips town?
Is that just not a possibility in your mind?
It is a possibility, and at that point I'll reevaluate the gamestate. I don't think it's worth my (or anyone's) time to build a pile of hypotheticals right now. At that point we'll go into Night, we'll come out the other side with more info from night actions, etc.
And more generally speaking, I am of the opinion that people stretch out Days too long on this site. Sometimes that means that an early wagon on town is turned around into a later wagon on scum, but at least as often it's the other way around, and the passage of time itself erodes interest in the game. Hell, in GB people messed around for so long that they got two no-kill days, giving scum a major advantage.
KA I'm curious what are your thoughts if he flips town?
Is that just not a possibility in your mind?
It is a possibility, and at that point I'll reevaluate the gamestate. I don't think it's worth my (or anyone's) time to build a pile of hypotheticals right now. At that point we'll go into Night, we'll come out the other side with more info from night actions, etc.
And more generally speaking, I am of the opinion that people stretch out Days too long on this site. Sometimes that means that an early wagon on town is turned around into a later wagon on scum, but at least as often it's the other way around, and the passage of time itself erodes interest in the game. Hell, in GB people messed around for so long that they got two no-kill days, giving scum a major advantage.
@Tom this is why I don't think KA is scum.
It feels like good town reasoning on the whole, other than the whole he got caught part.
Maybe we should just kill everyone who thought tubba was scum and call it a day. There is no world where everyone pushing him was town.
why tubba wagon over last wagon? Or grape wagon? Or... ******* etr wagon?
Because there were demonstrable reasons those wagons existed. The tubba wagon had zero reason to exist and was pushed with great confidence by a few players over 1(?) post that was not well reasoned.
The last wagon cropped up in RVS and was fake pushed by me. As fun as it was I don't have a ton of confidence drawing conclusions from the wagon itself. Reactions to it were more valuable than the wagon.
My wagon had legit reasons behind it and since most people sheeped Rhand it's hard to sort. Vaimes looks slightly sketchy for his unecessary alternative reasoning but you've already provided semi compelling reasoning why that might be townie for Vaimes specifically.
The EtR wagon was full of either excited townies overreacting or scum pretending to overreact. It's not the easiest wagon to parse.
The tubba wagon had no mitigating circumstances and cropped up around the time I'd expect a counterwagon to be hopped on by wolves for "contrarian" credit.
Are you for or against lynching EtR? Give me one or two lines of text why or why not.
DV - Against
Do not think he got caught. I can see the world in which he FPS's as town.
KA - For
Thinks he got caught. Thinks it needs to be resolved and will give game knowledge. Also does not want to pass up the opportunity that the whole game is won today.
@Tom what are your definitive reasons for scum reading Mindreaver?
his progression is more effected by response to his posts than anything relevant, he doesnt care about his pushes, and hes opportunistically hopped on every big wagon
KA I'm curious what are your thoughts if he flips town?
Is that just not a possibility in your mind?
It is a possibility, and at that point I'll reevaluate the gamestate. I don't think it's worth my (or anyone's) time to build a pile of hypotheticals right now. At that point we'll go into Night, we'll come out the other side with more info from night actions, etc.
And more generally speaking, I am of the opinion that people stretch out Days too long on this site. Sometimes that means that an early wagon on town is turned around into a later wagon on scum, but at least as often it's the other way around, and the passage of time itself erodes interest in the game. Hell, in GB people messed around for so long that they got two no-kill days, giving scum a major advantage.
@Tom this is why I don't think KA is scum.
It feels like good town reasoning on the whole, other than the whole he got caught part.
honestly shouting down the kj/rhand reason for scumreading him convinced me a little he might actually believe that and i died a little inside
Are you for or against lynching EtR? Give me one or two lines of text why or why not.
DV - Against
Do not think he got caught. I can see the world in which he FPS's as town.
KA - For
Thinks he got caught. Thinks it needs to be resolved and will give game knowledge. Also does not want to pass up the opportunity that the whole game is won today.
KA if you think that's a misrep let me know
slightly for, but only peripherally related to tau fps, which is ~meaningless on its own (though a decent way to create reactions)
Tubba, what makes this like flavorgaming in ghostbusters instead of like [everything dv caused] in ghostbusters?
I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking. In Ghostbusters, Highroller in particular felt that the game could be solved along flavour lines to the exclusion of everything else. Town had an opportunity to disprove it, but thanks to some town lethargy and adroit scumplay, it didn’t happen until much too late.
The current situation feels similar in that we have an opportunity to clear up a confusing issue for town, that if we leave festering only makes preceding days more difficult.
As far as D_V, I alluded to it in Ghostbusters. He’s an agitator, it’s his play style and what seems to work for him. I don’t particularly like it, but it is what it is. His self voting in Ghostbusters did lead to chaos for town to be sure, but it was consistent with his “violently shaking things” approach. I don’t see a corollary here though.
was the correct play in ghostbusters resolving the flavor though, or was it "shut up highroller we dont need to lynch townies based on a crackpot theory"?
I see your point, but I don’t believe it would’ve worked then, and I don’t think it’ll work now. It’s going to be an elephant in the room for the rest of the game, you won’t be able to convince everyone to let it go. If it splits the town block the result will be the same as Ghostbusters, two town cores circling the drain. There were other issues with Ghostbusters as far as power roles, but I think my premise holds water. Note that nothing short of a contrary to flavour flip occurred that the town was able to start functioning cohesively. Did it not feel like a blessing for you as a crossflavour scum?
honestly i thought yall were reslly stupid sbout the whole thing and towntom would habe just yelled at highroller that flavor is never that simple and that was provenby the rhand flip.
It... kinda was simple though scumteam had 1 cult of gozer one ghostbuster one random human and one random ghost lol
And just as any problems there would have been solved by ignoring flavor and lynching scummy people... if theyre both town maybe they can both show it or we flip some wolves that theyre unaligned with...
Its pretty simple stuff you win mafia games by playing mafia
In hindsight, I agree. We aren’t lynching based on flavour in this instance, but on claims. Knowingly or not when EtR did anything other than out Tau he soft claimed scum. Depending on how much stock you put in that, he soft claimed scum for sixish? other players. Basing lunches on scummy behaviours is exactly correct, but imperfect information combined with even a minuscule level of doubt is putting extra scrutiny on anything those named players do. Some people will be better at looking past that, but why make it harder for those that can’t or won’t? Nip it now and let the game proceed from there.
@DV For
I think everything is unlikely but simplest explanation is he got fooled.
@Wisp it's not so much that I'm town reading him as that his wagon is incredibly artificial. He's a slightly townish null to me.
how is that the simplest or even most likely explanation? I know you said youd have just outed tau like kami thinks is townie, but... youve got a bunch of people saying they wouldnt and etr explaining why he didnt and...
And a general wagon cant be artificial only the individual reasons. Mine was openly artificial for creating w/v wagons so thats not scummy anyway. But what about the other votes?
Youre saying the other fast wagons are too hard to evaluate but youre not even trying to evaluate this one
@Tom what are your definitive reasons for scum reading Mindreaver?
his progression is more effected by response to his posts than anything relevant, he doesnt care about his pushes, and hes opportunistically hopped on every big wagon
Do you think this is more of a problem due to simply play?
You might not care about the argument he and I had, but I kind of got a peer into his thought process this game.
I think he legitimately feels persecuted by me. He doesn't understand what he did wrong and he feels hurt. What do I mean by this. Well, I think if you pushed him on ANY of his statements it would devolve into what happened with me. Fundamentally, I think it appears he doesn't care about his pushes because he doesn't have a clue what he is doing. I'm not sure that is because he is scummy. I think he's just going to go along for the ride, and you and I would say that is scummy. But with him, I'm not sure.
I agree that his progression is poor, but I also think that's an aspect of who he is as a player. Look at his progression on me, its just not accurate in the state of the world. He continues to defend it.
Basically, with myself I need to figure out is this a scum got caught and doesn't know how to defend himself scenario? Or does he actually believe that in what he is saying. My problem right now is that he wanted me to give him the benefit of the doubt in every post he made, but wasn't willing to do the same to me. He took a very literal comb to my posts, but when I did the same thing he said I "Language lawyered" him. This could be a personal flaw of his, I'm not sure. If he's town he should be looking at this from all angles and trying to figure things out, if he's scum then yeah I get it.
I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking. In Ghostbusters, Highroller in particular felt that the game could be solved along flavour lines to the exclusion of everything else. Town had an opportunity to disprove it, but thanks to some town lethargy and adroit scumplay, it didn’t happen until much too late.
The current situation feels similar in that we have an opportunity to clear up a confusing issue for town, that if we leave festering only makes preceding days more difficult.
As far as D_V, I alluded to it in Ghostbusters. He’s an agitator, it’s his play style and what seems to work for him. I don’t particularly like it, but it is what it is. His self voting in Ghostbusters did lead to chaos for town to be sure, but it was consistent with his “violently shaking things” approach. I don’t see a corollary here though.
was the correct play in ghostbusters resolving the flavor though, or was it "shut up highroller we dont need to lynch townies based on a crackpot theory"?
I see your point, but I don’t believe it would’ve worked then, and I don’t think it’ll work now. It’s going to be an elephant in the room for the rest of the game, you won’t be able to convince everyone to let it go. If it splits the town block the result will be the same as Ghostbusters, two town cores circling the drain. There were other issues with Ghostbusters as far as power roles, but I think my premise holds water. Note that nothing short of a contrary to flavour flip occurred that the town was able to start functioning cohesively. Did it not feel like a blessing for you as a crossflavour scum?
honestly i thought yall were reslly stupid sbout the whole thing and towntom would habe just yelled at highroller that flavor is never that simple and that was provenby the rhand flip.
It... kinda was simple though scumteam had 1 cult of gozer one ghostbuster one random human and one random ghost lol
And just as any problems there would have been solved by ignoring flavor and lynching scummy people... if theyre both town maybe they can both show it or we flip some wolves that theyre unaligned with...
Its pretty simple stuff you win mafia games by playing mafia
In hindsight, I agree. We aren’t lynching based on flavour in this instance, but on claims. Knowingly or not when EtR did anything other than out Tau he soft claimed scum. Depending on how much stock you put in that, he soft claimed scum for sixish? other players. Basing lunches on scummy behaviours is exactly correct, but imperfect information combined with even a minuscule level of doubt is putting extra scrutiny on anything those named players do. Some people will be better at looking past that, but why make it harder for those that can’t or won’t? Nip it now and let the game proceed from there.
i can squint and see that as etr claiming scum, but if thats the definition were using i would say its a fact that town claim scum more than town.
But i put actual zero stock in it. And... how do you go from there to wanting tau to die too?
Are you for or against lynching EtR? Give me one or two lines of text why or why not.
DV - Against
Do not think he got caught. I can see the world in which he FPS's as town.
KA - For
Thinks he got caught. Thinks it needs to be resolved and will give game knowledge. Also does not want to pass up the opportunity that the whole game is won today.
Kami isn't interested in addressing any of it, because as I've said Kami isn't interested in getting better at mafia he just wants to echo chamber his own thoughts and ignores everyone else.
I'm going to answer this exactly once, just to make my opinion known, because I'm not interested in a long argument over it.
I am interested in getting better at mafia, and I have changed aspects of my play over time. I just don't think your approaches are better at mafia.
I hate how mindreaver is pushing that we need to solve the ETR/Tau thing.
No, no we don't. Its also clear he didn't read diddly squat of what I read, because I've argued a lot more then what he said I did. I used the opinion of Sir Chris and the "Remember when" as supplemental material.
Okay, why is Mindreaver's opinion of "we need to resolve this" stick out to you more than mine did? During your catch up you positively reacted to my break down of the possibilities (which concluded EtR was likely scum) and my desire to resolve it. If it's that your opinion changed why didn't this change draw ire to me as well?
Welp this is it until someone else posts.
Maybe ill go to bed...
Think i wanna vote tubba amd make that the etr counterwagon.
Mind still scummy and ill prolly case him toDay, and dont like what lngrr is choosing to focus on upon his return.
But tubba as counter makes w/v wagons most likely and i dig that.
I kind of like rhand reacting to etr/tau too. He mostly ignored the gambit and solved based on roles. #575 is a pretty good post actually.
Unvote Vote Tubba
Expect me to jump between these two all day.
There was also Rhand going from "I don't have a real tubba read" to listing him as scum with nary a mention in between.
Wisp's shade is the scummiest, but it's wisp and shade is what he does. Plus he's been independently townie and [redacted].
KJ is town. Rhand's feels the most opportunistic of the bunch, while opportunistic isn't exactly what I was looking for with this it's better than nothing. A quick skim through his ISO shows someone who can't find a comfortable place to vote. Given Rhand's normal tendencies I'd say that's a soft scum indicator.
Tom's read feels real fake. Really fake.
DV's is fine, it's a bit opportunistic as well, but not as bad as I remembered.
You might not care about the argument he and I had, but I kind of got a peer into his thought process this game.
i dont think that thought process youre seeing is unique to this game or an alignment.
Its more a reaction to how you treat people.
Mhhhm
Yeah, ish.
Fundamentally, I think some of how he approaches me is pure. Its how he truly reasons. Scum are typically, faking reasons, while town members should be largely just playing(Exceptions exist to this rule).
So, to me if someone follows the logic they are arguing and that seems to follow their more pure thought logic then I'd say they are town.
Neither of us can prove this. I just think that a lot of what we are seeing is a symptom of poor reasoning in general. I feel like I'm talking myself out of this vote on him. I'm not quite sure yet.
Okay, why is Mindreaver's opinion of "we need to resolve this" stick out to you more than mine did? During your catch up you positively reacted to my break down of the possibilities (which concluded EtR was likely scum) and my desire to resolve it. If it's that your opinion changed why didn't this change draw ire to me as well?
For the most part I only focus on one person at a time. Your's felt less problematic to me. I think that it might have been that was the only position you had that I disliked. Mindreaver's entire voting history and reasoning have all felt weak at best and largely deceptive to me.
Kami isn't interested in addressing any of it, because as I've said Kami isn't interested in getting better at mafia he just wants to echo chamber his own thoughts and ignores everyone else.
I'm going to answer this exactly once, just to make my opinion known, because I'm not interested in a long argument over it.
I am interested in getting better at mafia, and I have changed aspects of my play over time. I just don't think your approaches are better at mafia.
That might be the case, but here is the problem.
When we first started playing together in Pirates you got stuck on me and then you did again in Playstation. The problem I see which is the same problem here is that instead of engaging anyone or trying to reason through peoples arguments you just sort of ignored them. I'm not saying that this is the worst, but the problem becomes is that it doesn't seem like you are taking anyone else's input to heart. I'm not saying you mimic my behavior, but I reason things out a lot, and part of the reason I argue so much is that if I can't defeat what you are saying I need to change my opinion, because it likely means I'm wrong.
It seems to me that you will come into a thread push an opinion get ignored and instead of pursing that opinion you just leave and then come back and restate that opinion without challenging any opposition to the opinion or even really changing your stance. To me this is frustrating, because instead of changing the game state or engaging with it in anyway it feels that a majority of your play is pop in say something, leave, then pop in repeat. And so you have like no impact on the game state, and consequently no impact in solving the game.
Anyways, with ETR he's given me reasons to believe that he messed the claim up due to his comma argument with me in Ghostbusters. I think he messed it up again here, because he doesn't understand something about English. Furthermore, I think he totally FPS'd here and can see doing it. Your argument largely rests on correct play, I'm not sure that its 100% the correct play(I think its weighted in favor of claiming but not the only answer). There is also the whole why would scum with four members believe him and you haven't addressed that as well.
You play magic right? How many times have you seen players make OBJECTIVELY bad plays. What I'm trying to say is even if you're right that its the right play, he could have made the wrong play as town too. It doesn't make him scum. What we as the town need to do is objectively look at it and say "What is the most likely scenario."
Its unlikely that as mafia with 4 scum he claims this and actually believes the claim.
Its unlikely that the mafia have 3 members and there is a neutral and the scum was paired with the neighbor.
Its much more likely that he was town and made a bad FPS play. Due to my knowledge of the player and the game state.
@DV For
I think everything is unlikely but simplest explanation is he got fooled.
@Wisp it's not so much that I'm town reading him as that his wagon is incredibly artificial. He's a slightly townish null to me.
I'm sorry, but no, u were calling him town before hand, give me better reasons... And I can argue that even ETRs wagon growth was insanely unnatural
I don't remember calling him town. Find it in my ISO and I'll consider replying. I vividly remember quoting a Vaimes post saying that "thank you for seeing the same thing as me."
And townies and scum both overreacting to a gotcha is the most natural thing in mafia. It's probably the default state of mafia. People overreact.
@Tom I've never understood your positional play to be honest. People toss the word around a lot and I generally pretend to understand it but it's like one of those words where you get it off context but are never quite sure on the finer points of it's meaning.
On EtR the explanations for him to be town are more convoluted to me than the ones that he's scum. I don't find his explanation of the "incorrect" targets has never sat right with me. I find that he got fooled more plausible than that he incorrectly indicated 3 people that he didn't mean to. If that case of mistaken targets didn't exist I'd find it to be pretty likely he was town FPS'ing (even if I think it's an awful play) but I can't get myself to believe that he made that mistake as town trying to FPS.
I'll ISO you once I get home, and I'll happily apologize if I was wrong, I still think that statement was scummy either way, no shade intended, if you had added your reasons in the statement, then sure, I could be ok with it
I moved my vote because I read his reread him last night and I agreed with others sentiment that he wasnt as scummy as I originally thought, as well as I liked his reaction to my claim
Woah woah, I don't shade, where did I shade, if I ever shade, it's by accident
@Grape
Wisp you're great but shade is your default mode. If it's due to frustration then frustration is your default mode.
@DV fair on Mindreaver. On EtR I remember the comma stuff happening without ever paying attention to the details of the exact debate. That wasn't mistakes of carelessness though. You argued he was wrong and I don't remember it exactly, but even in that he was very detail oriented. You thought the details were wrong, but the point stands that he was obsessed with the details. If anything that argument is in favor of my point.
I'll ISO you once I get home, and I'll happily apologize if I was wrong, I still think that statement was scummy either way, no shade intended, if you had added your reasons in the statement, then sure, I could be ok with it
I moved my vote because I read his reread him last night and I agreed with others sentiment that he wasnt as scummy as I originally thought, as well as I liked his reaction to my claim
I might have called him townie at some point. I don't really know. But the section in bold is the main point I was trying to make. I didn't understand how anyone could read his ISO and confidently conclude he was scum. It felt fake to me.
I'll ISO you once I get home, and I'll happily apologize if I was wrong, I still think that statement was scummy either way, no shade intended, if you had added your reasons in the statement, then sure, I could be ok with it
I moved my vote because I read his reread him last night and I agreed with others sentiment that he wasnt as scummy as I originally thought, as well as I liked his reaction to my claim
I might have called him townie at some point. I don't really know. But the section in bold is the main point I was trying to make. I didn't understand how anyone could read his ISO and confidently conclude he was scum. It felt fake to me.
ya well you juat coming out saying, I think there is scum on the wagon, refusing to acknowledge the reasons why I or anyone else voted them, regardless of what you may think of him yourself, is just frustrating...
Last game day 2, Gwen was at L1, and 4 people unvotes with bs like, "this wagon is unnatural", when I and one other worked hard on our case against her, and for people to just dismantle cases with a statement like that is just frustrating... Ohh and Gwen was scum, and almost everyone on her train was town, even the other 3 people that randomly 180'd off her... I refuse to listen to that kind of argument on day 1 if your not gonna take the time to break down our reasons for voting there
[quote from="KamikazeArchon »" url="/forums/community-forums/mafia/805970-death-in-the-family-day-1-just-the-beginning?comment=875"]
Its unlikely that as mafia with 4 scum he claims this and actually believes the claim.
I disagree on that, and I doubt that it's possible for either of us to have what I would call "scientific" evidence of what is more or less likely. All it requires is for one player to make one erroneous snap judgement call. That happens all the time. I would go so far as to say it probably happens multiple times in every single game - just usually with lesser consequences so it's not put under as much scrutiny. But that's all intuition and anecdotal reasoning - just as yours is.
But even if you don't believe EtR making that slip is likely, consider expected value. EV is not just probability, it's probability multiplied by payoff. The payoff here is literally a game win if I'm right - and if I'm wrong there are still other useful payoffs; for example if EtR is scum but didn't out his whole team, we still net scum (potentially multiple) and confirm Tau, etc. The sum (value * probability) of the various scenarios is massive.
And this isn't Day 5 Lylo where we could win the game on a good call but lose it on a bad call. The worst case is simply one townie dead. The upside payoff is high, the downside risk is low. I think the odds are really good, you think the odds are bad. OK, I doubt I can change your opinion on that. But how bad are they? Are they 50%? 30%? You could offer me a bet "30% win the whole game, 70% lose a single townie" and I'd take it. Would you not take that bet?
And yes I'm absolutely going to add into the EV bucket that not only would it be a game win, it would be the most fantastic and hilarious way to win the game IMO.
@Wisp I made a provocative statement without backing initially. I then proceeded to explain my reasoning for why I thought the various votes were bad. I didn't bother with doing yours in depth because you had already disowned your vote for the same reason I disliked the wagon (reading Tubba's ISO doesn't give the impression that he's scum). Plus given everything else I just strongly think you're town so looking into you is a waste of effort.
If you still believed Tubba was scum or had done an in depth case then I'd understand the analogy but neither of those things are true so other than general caution I don't see why you're defending a wagon you've disowned as being ill advised, when that's the exact reason I'm pushing it for.
I'm not defending the wagon, I was attacking your initial statement... Which didn't include as reasons, there was nothing different between it and tho whole ETR fiasco
Ok argue that I didn't make an in-depth case, I Barned someone else's thoughts, mostly, with some previous posts I believe I made on not likeing him? I can't really ISO myself since I'm at work... But Tom and DV both gave reasons for there vote
Riku/Tuba continue to be LHF. But just like how maniacs can have premium hands, lhf can be wolves, so continuing to watch that.
<snip>
Weird, as I usually have the opposite problem, of struggling to find people who can be wolfy.
concluding 2 people are lhf, then deciding one is probably scum anyway despite already having too many wolves, has a fair amount of wolf equity.
Just, as an individual action.
Mitigated a bit by all his scumreads being lhf themselves this game (lngrr) or based entirely on Johnny beung underwhelmed (rhand/kj)
Though those mitigating factors arent exactly cause for celebration
Hi johnny i see you
Eye roll.
It's day 2, sorry I didn't post a wall. Almost feels like the opposite of what i would do as a wolf, or ignores my mor recent changes.
@Tom
At the time, I figured one or both of them were lying and despite their alignments created a confusing mess. Later on, EtR seemed to be more likely scum imo, due to his back tracking on who he was actually claiming as his scum team and his shutting down in thread. Tau looked townish prior to the situation, but he snowed me so hard in F&E that I wasn’t going to give him carte blanche. Now that I’ve had more time, I’m not sure EtR is scum but still think like Kami that there is enough potential equity in the lynch there.
I will say that I’m troubled by both Tau and EtR’s seeming vanishing act. I’m crushing them in post count here.
@tau: why did you not just wait for toNight to play that trick on EtR
I figured that the trick would work better the less time EtR had to think about it, and making the private fakeclaim earlier would make it more credible.
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On top of tom's question about all of the other wagons that dissipated quickly why do you see him as town?
His wagon had Tom, Myself, Last and someone else on it.
Who was scummily voting him?
I've seen plenty of wagons form and dissipate this quickly all with town on them. What makes this one special in your mind?
Yeah I wouldn't worry about it.
I've written copious amounts for why Kami's logic doesn't hold up and why town might not claim.
Kami isn't interested in addressing any of it, because as I've said Kami isn't interested in getting better at mafia he just wants to echo chamber his own thoughts and ignores everyone else.
But to do that, hed have to believe tau was truthfully outing himself. Which is almost as silly as believing etr outed himself and his entire team...
Oh i see the problem here...
LOL you and I are just repeating each other at this point and hopping one of us sticks.
Can you clarify your town read on tubba?
It... kinda was simple though scumteam had 1 cult of gozer one ghostbuster one random human and one random ghost lol
And just as any problems there would have been solved by ignoring flavor and lynching scummy people... if theyre both town maybe they can both show it or we flip some wolves that theyre unaligned with...
Its pretty simple stuff you win mafia games by playing mafia
And more generally speaking, I am of the opinion that people stretch out Days too long on this site. Sometimes that means that an early wagon on town is turned around into a later wagon on scum, but at least as often it's the other way around, and the passage of time itself erodes interest in the game. Hell, in GB people messed around for so long that they got two no-kill days, giving scum a major advantage.
@Tom this is why I don't think KA is scum.
It feels like good town reasoning on the whole, other than the whole he got caught part.
Because there were demonstrable reasons those wagons existed. The tubba wagon had zero reason to exist and was pushed with great confidence by a few players over 1(?) post that was not well reasoned.
The last wagon cropped up in RVS and was fake pushed by me. As fun as it was I don't have a ton of confidence drawing conclusions from the wagon itself. Reactions to it were more valuable than the wagon.
My wagon had legit reasons behind it and since most people sheeped Rhand it's hard to sort. Vaimes looks slightly sketchy for his unecessary alternative reasoning but you've already provided semi compelling reasoning why that might be townie for Vaimes specifically.
The EtR wagon was full of either excited townies overreacting or scum pretending to overreact. It's not the easiest wagon to parse.
The tubba wagon had no mitigating circumstances and cropped up around the time I'd expect a counterwagon to be hopped on by wolves for "contrarian" credit.
Are you for or against lynching EtR? Give me one or two lines of text why or why not.
DV - Against
Do not think he got caught. I can see the world in which he FPS's as town.
KA - For
Thinks he got caught. Thinks it needs to be resolved and will give game knowledge. Also does not want to pass up the opportunity that the whole game is won today.
KA if you think that's a misrep let me know
Thanks auto correct.
I think everything is unlikely but simplest explanation is he got fooled.
@Wisp it's not so much that I'm town reading him as that his wagon is incredibly artificial. He's a slightly townish null to me.
But they are not town thoughts... He can be town but they are not town thoughts
In hindsight, I agree. We aren’t lynching based on flavour in this instance, but on claims. Knowingly or not when EtR did anything other than out Tau he soft claimed scum. Depending on how much stock you put in that, he soft claimed scum for sixish? other players. Basing lunches on scummy behaviours is exactly correct, but imperfect information combined with even a minuscule level of doubt is putting extra scrutiny on anything those named players do. Some people will be better at looking past that, but why make it harder for those that can’t or won’t? Nip it now and let the game proceed from there.
And a general wagon cant be artificial only the individual reasons. Mine was openly artificial for creating w/v wagons so thats not scummy anyway. But what about the other votes?
Youre saying the other fast wagons are too hard to evaluate but youre not even trying to evaluate this one
Do you think this is more of a problem due to simply play?
You might not care about the argument he and I had, but I kind of got a peer into his thought process this game.
I think he legitimately feels persecuted by me. He doesn't understand what he did wrong and he feels hurt. What do I mean by this. Well, I think if you pushed him on ANY of his statements it would devolve into what happened with me. Fundamentally, I think it appears he doesn't care about his pushes because he doesn't have a clue what he is doing. I'm not sure that is because he is scummy. I think he's just going to go along for the ride, and you and I would say that is scummy. But with him, I'm not sure.
I agree that his progression is poor, but I also think that's an aspect of who he is as a player. Look at his progression on me, its just not accurate in the state of the world. He continues to defend it.
Basically, with myself I need to figure out is this a scum got caught and doesn't know how to defend himself scenario? Or does he actually believe that in what he is saying. My problem right now is that he wanted me to give him the benefit of the doubt in every post he made, but wasn't willing to do the same to me. He took a very literal comb to my posts, but when I did the same thing he said I "Language lawyered" him. This could be a personal flaw of his, I'm not sure. If he's town he should be looking at this from all angles and trying to figure things out, if he's scum then yeah I get it.
Here, I'm not so sure.
But i put actual zero stock in it. And... how do you go from there to wanting tau to die too?
I am interested in getting better at mafia, and I have changed aspects of my play over time. I just don't think your approaches are better at mafia.
Its more a reaction to how you treat people.
My approach only works for me.
But theres a decent chance youre currently channeling highroller in ghostbusters and that doesn't seem like a good one either
Okay, why is Mindreaver's opinion of "we need to resolve this" stick out to you more than mine did? During your catch up you positively reacted to my break down of the possibilities (which concluded EtR was likely scum) and my desire to resolve it. If it's that your opinion changed why didn't this change draw ire to me as well?
Anyway Tubba stuff
There was also Rhand going from "I don't have a real tubba read" to listing him as scum with nary a mention in between.
KJ is town. Rhand's feels the most opportunistic of the bunch, while opportunistic isn't exactly what I was looking for with this it's better than nothing. A quick skim through his ISO shows someone who can't find a comfortable place to vote. Given Rhand's normal tendencies I'd say that's a soft scum indicator.
Tom's read feels real fake. Really fake.
DV's is fine, it's a bit opportunistic as well, but not as bad as I remembered.
Mhhhm
Yeah, ish.
Fundamentally, I think some of how he approaches me is pure. Its how he truly reasons. Scum are typically, faking reasons, while town members should be largely just playing(Exceptions exist to this rule).
So, to me if someone follows the logic they are arguing and that seems to follow their more pure thought logic then I'd say they are town.
Neither of us can prove this. I just think that a lot of what we are seeing is a symptom of poor reasoning in general. I feel like I'm talking myself out of this vote on him. I'm not quite sure yet.
For the most part I only focus on one person at a time. Your's felt less problematic to me. I think that it might have been that was the only position you had that I disliked. Mindreaver's entire voting history and reasoning have all felt weak at best and largely deceptive to me.
@Grape
That might be the case, but here is the problem.
When we first started playing together in Pirates you got stuck on me and then you did again in Playstation. The problem I see which is the same problem here is that instead of engaging anyone or trying to reason through peoples arguments you just sort of ignored them. I'm not saying that this is the worst, but the problem becomes is that it doesn't seem like you are taking anyone else's input to heart. I'm not saying you mimic my behavior, but I reason things out a lot, and part of the reason I argue so much is that if I can't defeat what you are saying I need to change my opinion, because it likely means I'm wrong.
It seems to me that you will come into a thread push an opinion get ignored and instead of pursing that opinion you just leave and then come back and restate that opinion without challenging any opposition to the opinion or even really changing your stance. To me this is frustrating, because instead of changing the game state or engaging with it in anyway it feels that a majority of your play is pop in say something, leave, then pop in repeat. And so you have like no impact on the game state, and consequently no impact in solving the game.
Anyways, with ETR he's given me reasons to believe that he messed the claim up due to his comma argument with me in Ghostbusters. I think he messed it up again here, because he doesn't understand something about English. Furthermore, I think he totally FPS'd here and can see doing it. Your argument largely rests on correct play, I'm not sure that its 100% the correct play(I think its weighted in favor of claiming but not the only answer). There is also the whole why would scum with four members believe him and you haven't addressed that as well.
You play magic right? How many times have you seen players make OBJECTIVELY bad plays. What I'm trying to say is even if you're right that its the right play, he could have made the wrong play as town too. It doesn't make him scum. What we as the town need to do is objectively look at it and say "What is the most likely scenario."
Its unlikely that as mafia with 4 scum he claims this and actually believes the claim.
Its unlikely that the mafia have 3 members and there is a neutral and the scum was paired with the neighbor.
Its much more likely that he was town and made a bad FPS play. Due to my knowledge of the player and the game state.
We are going to butt heads the rest of the game till one of us dies, I can already see it
I don't remember calling him town. Find it in my ISO and I'll consider replying. I vividly remember quoting a Vaimes post saying that "thank you for seeing the same thing as me."
And townies and scum both overreacting to a gotcha is the most natural thing in mafia. It's probably the default state of mafia. People overreact.
@Tom I've never understood your positional play to be honest. People toss the word around a lot and I generally pretend to understand it but it's like one of those words where you get it off context but are never quite sure on the finer points of it's meaning.
On EtR the explanations for him to be town are more convoluted to me than the ones that he's scum. I don't find his explanation of the "incorrect" targets has never sat right with me. I find that he got fooled more plausible than that he incorrectly indicated 3 people that he didn't mean to. If that case of mistaken targets didn't exist I'd find it to be pretty likely he was town FPS'ing (even if I think it's an awful play) but I can't get myself to believe that he made that mistake as town trying to FPS.
I can very much see EtR making that mistake here.
I moved my vote because I read his reread him last night and I agreed with others sentiment that he wasnt as scummy as I originally thought, as well as I liked his reaction to my claim
@DV fair on Mindreaver. On EtR I remember the comma stuff happening without ever paying attention to the details of the exact debate. That wasn't mistakes of carelessness though. You argued he was wrong and I don't remember it exactly, but even in that he was very detail oriented. You thought the details were wrong, but the point stands that he was obsessed with the details. If anything that argument is in favor of my point.
I might have called him townie at some point. I don't really know. But the section in bold is the main point I was trying to make. I didn't understand how anyone could read his ISO and confidently conclude he was scum. It felt fake to me.
Last game day 2, Gwen was at L1, and 4 people unvotes with bs like, "this wagon is unnatural", when I and one other worked hard on our case against her, and for people to just dismantle cases with a statement like that is just frustrating... Ohh and Gwen was scum, and almost everyone on her train was town, even the other 3 people that randomly 180'd off her... I refuse to listen to that kind of argument on day 1 if your not gonna take the time to break down our reasons for voting there
But even if you don't believe EtR making that slip is likely, consider expected value. EV is not just probability, it's probability multiplied by payoff. The payoff here is literally a game win if I'm right - and if I'm wrong there are still other useful payoffs; for example if EtR is scum but didn't out his whole team, we still net scum (potentially multiple) and confirm Tau, etc. The sum (value * probability) of the various scenarios is massive.
And this isn't Day 5 Lylo where we could win the game on a good call but lose it on a bad call. The worst case is simply one townie dead. The upside payoff is high, the downside risk is low. I think the odds are really good, you think the odds are bad. OK, I doubt I can change your opinion on that. But how bad are they? Are they 50%? 30%? You could offer me a bet "30% win the whole game, 70% lose a single townie" and I'd take it. Would you not take that bet?
If you still believed Tubba was scum or had done an in depth case then I'd understand the analogy but neither of those things are true so other than general caution I don't see why you're defending a wagon you've disowned as being ill advised, when that's the exact reason I'm pushing it for.
Eye roll.
It's day 2, sorry I didn't post a wall. Almost feels like the opposite of what i would do as a wolf, or ignores my mor recent changes.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
At the time, I figured one or both of them were lying and despite their alignments created a confusing mess. Later on, EtR seemed to be more likely scum imo, due to his back tracking on who he was actually claiming as his scum team and his shutting down in thread. Tau looked townish prior to the situation, but he snowed me so hard in F&E that I wasn’t going to give him carte blanche. Now that I’ve had more time, I’m not sure EtR is scum but still think like Kami that there is enough potential equity in the lynch there.
I will say that I’m troubled by both Tau and EtR’s seeming vanishing act. I’m crushing them in post count here.
That's correct, my unlockable ability is unknown to me.
I figured that the trick would work better the less time EtR had to think about it, and making the private fakeclaim earlier would make it more credible.