So you believe that I'm scum but not with any of the people that I named?
why would possible scum pouring wine effect my read on any of them?
Lol
Though i thought youre new story was that you were naming tubba and kami?
Right but then your looking at a four man team. If you believe that I'm scum, and this gambit was a town gambit by Tau, I would have been missing someone from the original post listing my allies. Unless you believe that the original list was my scum claim in which case you have to believe that I was lying about that since you were in it.
Basically, I don't know how you can believe this is true and not have the scum team be Me, Tubba and Kami. Honestly I don't know how anyone can believe this is true in the first place but whatevs. The numbers don't add up either way you slice it.
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
ETR, Tau, Tom, Whisper, Rhand...The 5 person scum team?
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
ETR, Tau, Tom, Whisper, Rhand...The 5 person scum team?
So you believe that I'm scum but not with any of the people that I named?
why would possible scum pouring wine effect my read on any of them?
Lol
Though i thought youre new story was that you were naming tubba and kami?
Right but then your looking at a four man team. If you believe that I'm scum, and this gambit was a town gambit by Tau, I would have been missing someone from the original post listing my allies. Unless you believe that the original list was my scum claim in which case you have to believe that I was lying about that since you were in it.
Basically, I don't know how you can believe this is true and not have the scum team be Me, Tubba and Kami. Honestly I don't know how anyone can believe this is true in the first place but whatevs. The numbers don't add up either way you slice it.
still dont think the world where youre scum, believed tau was your lost wolf, and told him your team exactly ever exists bro. Regardless of what that team is.
Thats stupid
Think the way you handled it overall is a bit scummy, and youre more or less in the same place as grape where you could be scum but probably need to flip regardless, and the entire middle of your wagon is suspicious people that all look like they could be bussing.
So putting you on scumteams seems like the thing to do right now.
What do you think of the people voting you?
You finish catching up yet?
Taus switch from Grr to.. anyone but him is just ridiculous.
The ETR posting his scumbuddies is.. A dumb play.
Also, he mentioned Tau, so if any one of them flips town (likely concidering.. Last? Is in your scumteam right now.) last is pushing for Grr, THE SAME GRR You pushed the post BEFORE. So you were on the same page as him.
Given that one post never happend. Find me one definite scum post for each of that team.
Also, On ETR: One question.
His 361 has him kind of scumreading Last. Why would Scum!Etr do this this early when Last (his supposed scumbuddy) is widely considered town?
And why would scum!tom be poushing scumBuddy!etr so hard right now?
Food for thought.
Conciderinbg Grr was Tau's literally huge push the post before, i'm gonna put Grr in the town category.
Vote Tau
I think Tau is trying to get us going on a wild goose chase and i am not having it.
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So I don't really believe that Tau completely broke them game, but gosh dang Wisp's reaction to this whole thing is so bizarre.
Anyway so worlds (which I know tom already did but you all have to read it again):
Town!EtR/Town!Tau: in this world Tau decides to gambit and EtR sees it and decides to gambit back. Attempting to figure out what mindset this makes sense for EtR from and I'm struggling. I guess his stated explanation makes some amount of sense if you believe Tau, but I'm not sure it's more valuable than just outing him and seeing what happens. It also is just slightly askew with his assertion that he signaled the wrong names. If he believed in his bones that Tau was scum then signalling 2 additional scum makes sense (as a 5 person scum team is way too many if one is a lost wolf) but I'm really skeptical that if he really believed that he just wouldn't out Tau.
Plus it looks really intentional. The 4 questions were not in depth, had very specific targets, and formatted to make 4 as obvious as possible. I have a hard time thinking town EtR (who is a slow methodical player as shown by his catch up style) asked Wisp and Tom the same question on different lines without intending to point to them. Which makes this claim of "I was town gambiting, but signaled the wrong players." incredibly hard to believe. It doesn't seem like these are questions he would have been dying to ask and accidentally forgot to signal his intended targets.
Conclusion: Very unlikely.
Town!EtR/Scum!Tau: Here Tau gets EtR killed and then dies the next day. Given his strength as a player and ego I find this beyond unlikely. It also runs into the EtR incorrectly signaling while running a gambit issue.
Conclusion: Incredibly unlikely.
Scum!EtR/Scum!Tau: Here Tau gets EtR killed but loses a ton of credit when the buddies don't pan out. This is the scenario where Tau messing up the "counter-gambit" feels most probable. They hatch the hyper bus plan and to try and preserve EtR's dunked on the game credit they spill a ton of wine about what EtR "meant" to do. I don't believe it though because I don't think Tau takes that high risk of a line D1.
Conclusion: Unlikely.
Scum!EtR/Town!Tau: Tau runs a gambit, EtR either partially believes him but decides to test Tau by feeding a false list to gauge his reaction or fully believes him and gives the real list. His wine spilling with the incorrect signal makes sense here (spilling wine or attempting to chain townies together). Tau's mindset makes sense to me in this world and EtR's doesn't feel outside the realm of possibility. I think the intentional fake list to test Tau's claim is the more likely outcome. And jives with EtR saying Tau should have questioned the number but then claiming he only signaled 2 buddies.
EtR/Tau>>EtR/Tau>>>EtR/Tau>>>>EtR/Tau
EtR is very likely lying and spilling wine at this stage. His versions of events don't make sense or have an easily understandable town mindset behind them.
Anyway tom gunning for my flip still is a o-O, Rhand's "well time to think long and hard if this is a dichotomy", and Wisp's tonal change to anger makes me think there is a chance EtR got duped but I don't really believe that. Most likely is scum!EtR tested Tau and named 1 or 0 buddies. So time to dig into reactions to this and see what can be found.
It's bizarre because I despise being pushing against in the manner that kami is choosing to go about
Anyways at work, will post later
Your reaction was already weird to me before KA posted fwiw. The post mindreaver was gushing about struck me as stating the obvious as well as strange and self contradictory. I'm not sure why you made it or why Mind thought it was great.
And the tonal shift from your first post after the revelation to that one was jarring and a few others felt off. As did you leaning into claiming a PR when previously you'd denied it or at least shook your head at tom.
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
I don't think this question makes sense, as there's nothing that could happen in game that would tell me what someone's intent was. A better question would be, what would happen if one of the flips doesn't happen as expected; that's a hypothetical that would have an observable effect.
If EtR flips town, I reevaluate. Tau looks quite bad - if I had zero additional info and had to decide the next kill from there, I'd say Tau.
If EtR flips scum, and then we go on to kill one of the people on the list, and that person flips town, that's also reevaluation, but likely means Tau is still clear. I think we'd have to fall back to standard behavioral analysis of the rest of the players - I'd be tempted to play the "why did EtR put together that specific false list" game but that would be difficult.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
For the record my role PM matches EtR's claim. I don't have a proper role name, the world "Neighbor" isn't use in my role PM. I do get a new ability if EtR dies.
Taus switch from Grr to.. anyone but him is just ridiculous.
The ETR posting his scumbuddies is.. A dumb play.
Also, he mentioned Tau, so if any one of them flips town (likely concidering.. Last? Is in your scumteam right now.) last is pushing for Grr, THE SAME GRR You pushed the post BEFORE. So you were on the same page as him.
Given that one post never happend. Find me one definite scum post for each of that team.
Also, On ETR: One question.
His 361 has him kind of scumreading Last. Why would Scum!Etr do this this early when Last (his supposed scumbuddy) is widely considered town?
And why would scum!tom be poushing scumBuddy!etr so hard right now?
Food for thought.
Conciderinbg Grr was Tau's literally huge push the post before, i'm gonna put Grr in the town category.
Vote Tau
I think Tau is trying to get us going on a wild goose chase and i am not having it.
Also his 405 seems.. genuine and smart and 100% pro town.
Like, all of this feels forced and rushed. And i just, i am not seeing any faultering of his attitude. You'd think scum caught this early would.. explode.
I'd like to call this a gut feeling, and i have been working on following those. But just think for a second about Tau and his ABSOLUTE sudden switch from Grr is scum to Etr and crew (tm) is scum and Grr is town. a 180 like that should at least arise SOME suspicion.
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ztpqlpd’s vote on tom is so bad that I think it makes him town.
do you have the same thoughts with Mind's vote?
@Tom
I'm actually kinda mad that people on this site think I'm so polarized that they could even hope to find me scum this early, or by even assocations, I'm referring to Minds comment before he voted you. It's not that unnatural, so find town via PR hunting, I hate that you stated it, and I also hate that I couldn't get out of it without pretty much confirming it. #feelsbad
@Mafia
I'm a very good PR, please kill me, thanks
That is not remotely how I'd expect a town PR to react to that. He was under zero obligation to respond like that. And if it was wine (which was how I originally read it and liked it in that fashion) then this follow up is a big stinking pile of contradiction.
I'm gonna walk away before I say these I regret, because you don't understand how the game of mafia works, I'm asking you to literally Lynch me, just to prove to how nonsense that line of thinking is
Lynch ETR and then Lynch me, because honestly if I'm gonna have to spend the rest of the game being belittled by someone because of some stupid Gambit, just to flip town, who let me remind you, already claimed to be a PR
You can never argue any bit of ******* confidence that if ETR flips scum, that any of the people he listed are scum, ever, from that claim alone...
The arguement as I see it is "I'd rather hang today than EtR to prove how stupid all of this is. But also you're scummy for pushing this because it equates to pushing to kill me a claimed PR."
Yikes
Also reading through Wisp's ISO to find how he reacted to tom's calling him a PR I realized Wisp spends an awful lot of time asking other people to look at me, explain town reads of me, calling for me to die, and very very very little coherently explaining why I should hang without immeadiately backtracking reasons when pushed.
This combined with tom wanting my flip desperately for "information" and Rhand coming up with the meta deep dive almost convinces me EtR derped and outed his team. It's not the most likely outcome (still is scum!EtR sending a fake list to gauge reaction) but feels more likely after looking at that.
@KJ walk through the scenarios. Poke holes in my logic. Or Toms. Yes the votes have poured in quickly but breaking down the quadrants points to EtR being scum.
For the record even if Wisp's argument was "Even if EtR flips scum it's stupid to assume the list is scum and you should kill me to prove it but killing me is bad because I'm a claimed PR."
It's still Y i k e s.
And for the sake of argument let's say EtR flips scum today. I'm going to push to kill tom tomorrow. The list isn't the most likely answer, but as long as there is a chance it's correct we should pursue it. LW isn't the person I'd choose first off it (tom is the easy first choice) even without the PR claim. If tom flips scum the lol wolves. If tom were to flip town I'd then reevaluate and start digging for wolf reactions with the knowledge that I'm looking for people whose buddy got dunked on but at least didn't ruin the game 100%.
If EtR flips town then we kill Tau. And if he flips town then we learn that yolo gambits are a bad idea.
@Killjoy: Tubba seemed comfortable and was kinda Doing Things early on. Wouldn't vote, kinda feels towny by Tubba standards. Why were you trying to jump the gun in reading me when I basically had no posts?
I kinda want to just +1 on KJ being town because of spec stuff, but I look at his readslist and go ??? Rhand top town, Riku/Tau/Tubba scum?
What are you referring to when you say trying to jump the gun?
Also I disagree on Tubba, obviously. Hopefully I can prove it before I have to leave.
Also also, reads list not in any order within tiers.
@KJ what are you seeing in Tau to have them that low?
His Unofficial Votals are giving me flashbacks to another player (forget which game) doing the same thing as scum. He's being a lowkey Overly Helpful Townie.
Ftr, if grape is town so is vaimes.
Nothing pointing to w/w, but scumvaimes doesnt feel the need to add something to rhands reasoning on towngrape
Talk to me about this tom. Is this the only reason or is there more to it?
Also, do you still think Grape is scum? I think you were still entertaining the possiblity, yes?
@Killjoy Could you go into detail on your tomsloger townread? If you have a purpose behind not elaborating, can you say when you think you can say it?
Tom is a very loose townread right now because he does seem to be solving the game. For the most part I'm waiting till later to lock him in (especially if he's still alive) because the longer the game goes on the more info I have.
That said, I had a thought about him recently and wanna see where some questions go. Stay tuned for that.
So i still dont think wolfvaimes and towngrape is a thing, but otherwise dont really like vaimes so far. Not really buying me and wisp as his main townreads
...SNIP...
Pretty actively disagree with kjs tubba meta. Hes a deliberate sorta dude. I believe kj remembers that from low fantasy, but i think its in his towngames too.
I agree on Vaimes. I'm waiting for him to just be town!vaimes but he's not yet.
And re Tubba... I'll do some more research and see if I can find more evidence.
Dont like kjs read of tubba, but him making it from his current position in thread i think if tubba is town scum usually joins him so slight scumlean
Which is lol
Grape, kami, vaimes
Pile of bad vibes and bad meta.
First, why are you pushing so hard against me vs. Tubba? Sure maybe I'm just wrong but you've mentioned it like four times now. And I'm not seeing anyone agreeing with me on it. Where's the fire?
LnGrrrR ISO with my commentary.
Red Highlighting: LnGrrrR refuses to analyze the situation, sometimes going to absurd lengths to declare something nullish. Also highlighted his habit of adding adverbs which are synonyms of "weakly".
Blue Highlighting: Statements irrelevant to the gamestate. A small number of statements would not be scummy, but LnGrrR uses them excessively
Orange Highlighting: Questions from LnGrrrR to other playerswhich he never brings up or references ever again.
vote Lngr gor moving to a German city I don’t guide in
Ha! You have already used that reason! Scum confirmed!
@Vaimes, you need maybe a day to see Venice. Tops. Unless you are one of those horrible, "You realllllly need to spend at least 3 weeks in nowheresville to truly capture the hearty and spirit of the city!" Look pal, I have a job I have to go to. I know Americans have a bad stereotype of hitting the checklist items, but they are checklist items for a reason, dagnabbit.
@Kami, did you vote LW just because of post #57, or because of more than that?((He did follow up on this question to re-iterate it in #192, after forgetting to re-iterate it at the prefect opportunity in #170))
@KJ, Tubba has been quiet and on the margins, which is slightly worrying. Then again, so have I so... *shrug*. Nullish. ((The "Then again, so have I so" part is clearly a member of Mafia being made he can't scumread a townie without being hypocritical. If a townies notices they are doing a scumtell, they generally FIX THEIR BEHAVIOR, not stop using it. Notice he also implies that the "quiet and on the margins" scumtell is invalidated for THIS GAME ONLY, which is completely gross and indicates LnGrrrR is solely avoiding the scumtell to help keep himself alive.))
I don't get the push on LW, at all. ((LnGrrR makes no attempt to fix the fact he "don't get the push on LW". He does not ask anybody to re-explain why they voted LW or describe specific contradictions.)) Tau votes him for not RVSing, which is... whatever. Riku votes him which I'm guessing is RVS. Rodemy then votes him for not answering a question and continues to go after him aggressively. ((Note LnGrrR has not described if this Rodemy fact is a scumtell or towntell!)) GF jumps in with a naked vote, asking for more people to vote him.((Ditto for this GF fact!)) I read the thread, and I see four votes on him and it makes my head hurt.(("It makes my head hurt" is not a conclusion. It's a reason to ask for help or approach the problem from a different angle))
@Tom, you feel towny enough. I have you in my townbloc along with LW. Not saying you're easy to read, but I think I can read you... decently?
@Rhand, what makes you say that? Also, since you mentioned being drunk, what's a good Dutch drink to try? I ran out of limoncello this weekend and need to get something new.
@all, blah. Fine. But don't expect some long post. I have a freaking Excel course to start working on and I hate Excel.
Not RVSing is not scummy, in my opinion. Tau jumping on him for that is weird, but not enough to force him out of null, just something to keep my eye on. Riku voted him RVS, so no, not scummy. (Also, I think I am bad at reading Riku.) You are... leaning scum. I don't get the aggression. ((The next two sentances are an attempt to launder unrelated Rodemy reads as related to lw wagon, trying to retroactively justify #170 as having meaningful analysis))Also, your "putting words in someone's mouth" comment to Tom felt off, as to me it's pretty clear Tom was jokingly stating that because he hadn't put out an RVS vote, then he isn't part of LW's "I hate these RVS posts" comment, therefore making him town. I don't get why you would jump on that. Grape's jump seems opportunistic as heck and I want to hear Kami's answer to my question.((Notice that LnGrrrR completely forgot about Kami in #170, despite asking him question on Kami's Lastwhisper vote in #127, until re-doing his analysis!))
@LW, you two are injecting a lot into the thread. I tend to townside people talking. If you make some weird pushes then I will worry about it later, but I'm fine right now just looking at the relative output and saying, "Sure, town."
PS: LnGrrrR is still sitting on his Rhand RVS vote.
Like...the grapefruit case is a wording tell which has been disputed by as many people supported it, one awkward emotion transition from #216-#274, and grapefruit writing about mixed feeling on tomsloger without elaborating on his red flags. Those are all weak points.*
Meanwhile LnGrrrR here is borderline openwolfing and I don't know how players are missing it.
Vote LnGrrrR
(again)
---
*Also I think most of the voters on grapefruit have ignored his towntells, such how he almost-singlehandly made the read that marked Killjoy 90% Town. I also like his general pattern of gamestate analysis.
This reminds me of a post I made about Osie in a recent game (can't remember the name though. Why do I suck at remembering game names?) which involved calling him out for hedging a bunch, and I was wrong about his alignment. This feels the same. I don't think your points are as strong as you think they are, especially given how inactive he's been in total so far.
Hi. Why town points?
They were people I hadn't really talked a lot to so I wanted info from them.
I also like to make unknowns form opinions on scumreads so they can't retroactively have always been scumreading them for town points.
Re; Riku: Riku is lurking, and I know from personal experiance that he could be mafia for that reason. In Token Power 2, he and I were mafia together. I was doing, like, 95% of the posting for our team because he just wasn't there. I was then informed that that was a lowkey scumtell of his.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Yes Rod I am considering worlds where EtR is Town. I won't be doing by due diligence as a Townie if I wasn't!
Killjoy is right that it's weird how fast the EtR wagon happened. I think the set of people who have posted since the EtR wagon started and NOT posted him is {Killjoy, Tomsloger, Rod}
I'll tell you the pertinent info from that question after EtR answers it.
PS: Pasting my answer to this question since it doesn't matter now:
@tau
Answer my question, why did you discredit all your reads instead of evaluating it more naturally?
I did not discredit all my reads. I think this was important enough to investigate immediately, it could break the game wide open, but if we decide EtR is Town we can right back to lynch the level 1 scummy people.
I considered writing #378 to be much more hedge-y, but if EtR is scum this will make for a much better story, and I find projecting confidence as Town helps create more real reactions.
I love it, if he flips this, we kill that, it's like y'all forgot how to evaluate a game without lynching someone...
Question, where do you stand in me, @Grape?
I'll tell you a story later since you don't understand why I get so easily angry
Also those two arguments in ur first statement, aren't aligned... Kami is failing to look at things in the game, and just picking at things to push, I'm ok with dying to prove a point, regardless of what role I have, I self hammered in the turbo last night, because people played like garbage, and I'm selfish because I find it hard to believe that the things I see, others just pass right over...
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
I don't think this question makes sense, as there's nothing that could happen in game that would tell me what someone's intent was. A better question would be, what would happen if one of the flips doesn't happen as expected; that's a hypothetical that would have an observable effect.
If EtR flips town, I reevaluate. Tau looks quite bad - if I had zero additional info and had to decide the next kill from there, I'd say Tau.
If EtR flips scum, and then we go on to kill one of the people on the list, and that person flips town, that's also reevaluation, but likely means Tau is still clear. I think we'd have to fall back to standard behavioral analysis of the rest of the players - I'd be tempted to play the "why did EtR put together that specific false list" game but that would be difficult.
I am asking this, because your reads in this situation were "tonal" (fake) scum reads of the Rhand/Whisper/Tom team, and I wanted to see if you'd respond with actual reads on any of the people in the other group.
I was also looking for the obvious answer that the You/Tau/ETR/Tubba group can't exist, based on your world view. If ETR is scum, Tau can't be. He just made the one-in-a-million play, in your mind, and won the game for town day one. You said that is 80-90% certain for you. Also, YOU'RE INCLUDED IN THIS SCUM GROUP.
Instead you just went and enumerated the possibilities again, which we're hashed to death. THat means you're not trying to solve, and that means you're scum.
I think the best move is still lynch ETR today, I'll be happy to let Tau prove his new ability, and you start tomorrow as suspect #1 regardless of ETR's flip.
I love it, if he flips this, we kill that, it's like y'all forgot how to evaluate a game without lynching someone...
Question, where do you stand in me, @Grape?
I'll tell you a story later since you don't understand why I get so easily angry
Also those two arguments in ur first statement, aren't aligned... Kami is failing to look at things in the game, and just picking at things to push, I'm ok with dying to prove a point, regardless of what role I have, I self hammered in the turbo last night, because people played like garbage, and I'm selfish because I find it hard to believe that the things I see, others just pass right over...
Considering we haven't killed anyone yet I'd say I'm pretty awesome at evaluating without killing. /s
But seriously yes we should do other analysis but in a world where EtR is proven scum I'll have a hard time looking past tom doing [redacted] and being suggested by confirmed scum as a buddy and not wanting him to be the focus tomorrow. As for if EtR is scum I have good reason to believe it outside of the gambit. Your anger is palpable but misguided.
I stand that your focus on me was scummy but the rest of your play was townie in your own way.
On Kami what's your point? You're not out here arguing against sorting this EtR mess so why are you offended that he's looking ahead to tomorrow? Your primary focus is on talking about how you/tom/rhand isn't auto than what anyone should do about EtR, but you're still voting him just like KA. What gives? If it is your big stance that we need to not believe it's autopilot because of Tau's gambit then fine, but all you're doing is flailing at someone who wants to see if it is. And that flailing makes it look like it is autopilot. Anyway even with your explanation I still can't read anything other than berating KA for wanting to lynch a power role while calling for your own death to prove a point.
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
I don't think this question makes sense, as there's nothing that could happen in game that would tell me what someone's intent was. A better question would be, what would happen if one of the flips doesn't happen as expected; that's a hypothetical that would have an observable effect.
If EtR flips town, I reevaluate. Tau looks quite bad - if I had zero additional info and had to decide the next kill from there, I'd say Tau.
If EtR flips scum, and then we go on to kill one of the people on the list, and that person flips town, that's also reevaluation, but likely means Tau is still clear. I think we'd have to fall back to standard behavioral analysis of the rest of the players - I'd be tempted to play the "why did EtR put together that specific false list" game but that would be difficult.
I am asking this, because your reads in this situation were "tonal" (fake) scum reads of the Rhand/Whisper/Tom team, and I wanted to see if you'd respond with actual reads on any of the people in the other group.
I was also looking for the obvious answer that the You/Tau/ETR/Tubba group can't exist, based on your world view. If ETR is scum, Tau can't be. He just made the one-in-a-million play, in your mind, and won the game for town day one. You said that is 80-90% certain for you. Also, YOU'RE INCLUDED IN THIS SCUM GROUP.
Instead you just went and enumerated the possibilities again, which we're hashed to death. THat means you're not trying to solve, and that means you're scum.
I think the best move is still lynch ETR today, I'll be happy to let Tau prove his new ability, and you start tomorrow as suspect #1 regardless of ETR's flip.
bump
I have my liar's game matches tonight so i wont be back for a 3 or so hours you can all watch here Liars Club Twitch
honestly even Rodemy who had an entrance and emotional response I despised looks more townie than the rest of you in terms of your evaluations of ETR... and half the votes dont even state anything, they are just jumping on the wagon
Outside of the gambit, I think ETR is scummy, I called him out even before I knew of the Tau gambit, I didnt not like how he claimed, yet somehow he looks a lot better, yet this dude almost has to die today because of the wway he went about the things he did, it ******* sucks, and im seriously debating if this dude is actually even scum
This is the only correct course of action now. The reactions - particularly from EtR, to a lesser extent from Tom and Wisp - make me believe Tau hit the jackpot. Tom and Wisp are just tone reads. EtR has an implausible explanation: going along with a claimed scum neighbor, then sending a signal - which they "messed up", but which also just so happens to also actually match the real requested signal.
I'm 80-90% on this being a successful Tau play, in which case I am certain it's the most powerful Mafia play I've ever seen.
This is the only correct course of action now. The reactions - particularly from EtR, to a lesser extent from Tom and Wisp - make me believe Tau hit the jackpot. Tom and Wisp are just tone reads. EtR has an implausible explanation: going along with a claimed scum neighbor, then sending a signal - which they "messed up", but which also just so happens to also actually match the real requested signal.
I'm 80-90% on this being a successful Tau play, in which case I am certain it's the most powerful Mafia play I've ever seen.
you can actually shove this post, and how you can even think this argument would give anything other than wine...
This is the most obtuse, and tonally scummy response
This is a piss poor evaluation of that Gambit, by far out of everyone in this game that commented on it
vote: Kami
Look, I would also be frustrated if I was scum and my scumbuddy outed the whole team D1, but you don't need to take it out on other players.
Taking out EtR is the only reasonable action for any townie. An EtR scum flip solves the entire game. That's something that rarely happens, and never happens D1. On the off chance that you're town as a "marked target", even then it would make sense to resolve this now rather than waiting while under a cloud of suspicion.
these posts are so fake, and idk how y'all can be so blind to that
@grape
this dude is setting up mislynches, this is not a townie mindset, you can argue with me to your blue in the face, but I refuse to believe that town!kami plays this bad, and thinks like this as town
Taus switch from Grr to.. anyone but him is just ridiculous.
The ETR posting his scumbuddies is.. A dumb play.
Also, he mentioned Tau, so if any one of them flips town (likely concidering.. Last? Is in your scumteam right now.) last is pushing for Grr, THE SAME GRR You pushed the post BEFORE. So you were on the same page as him.
Given that one post never happend. Find me one definite scum post for each of that team.
Also, On ETR: One question.
His 361 has him kind of scumreading Last. Why would Scum!Etr do this this early when Last (his supposed scumbuddy) is widely considered town?
And why would scum!tom be poushing scumBuddy!etr so hard right now?
Food for thought.
Conciderinbg Grr was Tau's literally huge push the post before, i'm gonna put Grr in the town category.
Vote Tau
I think Tau is trying to get us going on a wild goose chase and i am not having it.
Also his 405 seems.. genuine and smart and 100% pro town.
Like, all of this feels forced and rushed. And i just, i am not seeing any faultering of his attitude. You'd think scum caught this early would.. explode.
I'd like to call this a gut feeling, and i have been working on following those. But just think for a second about Tau and his ABSOLUTE sudden switch from Grr is scum to Etr and crew (tm) is scum and Grr is town. a 180 like that should at least arise SOME suspicion.
I feel like they’ve slid into anti spew a little bit personally, and I don’t recall anything they’ve done prior to this that made much of an impact on the game.
Do you think this makes Tau scum?
Taus switch from Grr to.. anyone but him is just ridiculous.
The ETR posting his scumbuddies is.. A dumb play.
Also, he mentioned Tau, so if any one of them flips town (likely concidering.. Last? Is in your scumteam right now.) last is pushing for Grr, THE SAME GRR You pushed the post BEFORE. So you were on the same page as him.
Given that one post never happend. Find me one definite scum post for each of that team.
Also, On ETR: One question.
His 361 has him kind of scumreading Last. Why would Scum!Etr do this this early when Last (his supposed scumbuddy) is widely considered town?
And why would scum!tom be poushing scumBuddy!etr so hard right now?
Food for thought.
Conciderinbg Grr was Tau's literally huge push the post before, i'm gonna put Grr in the town category.
Vote Tau
I think Tau is trying to get us going on a wild goose chase and i am not having it.
Also his 405 seems.. genuine and smart and 100% pro town.
Like, all of this feels forced and rushed. And i just, i am not seeing any faultering of his attitude. You'd think scum caught this early would.. explode.
I'd like to call this a gut feeling, and i have been working on following those. But just think for a second about Tau and his ABSOLUTE sudden switch from Grr is scum to Etr and crew (tm) is scum and Grr is town. a 180 like that should at least arise SOME suspicion.
I feel like they’ve slid into anti spew a little bit personally, and I don’t recall anything they’ve done prior to this that made much of an impact on the game.
Do you think this makes Tau scum?
Yes. Do you?
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Good lord if this thread isn't being pulled in fifteen hundred different directions.
Killjoy, I meant that it looked like you were forcing a read when I had like three posts (RVS, comment about LW, and V/LA declaration). All I can really say to "I don't see town!Vaimes yet" at that point is duh.
I thought Reaverb made good points on LnGR, and that LnGR's indecisiveness was over the top.
I mean technically, even if Tau was telling the truth, the correct decision is to lynch him, though? It proves his claim (or disproves it), which gives a point of reference for the future.
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Right but then your looking at a four man team. If you believe that I'm scum, and this gambit was a town gambit by Tau, I would have been missing someone from the original post listing my allies. Unless you believe that the original list was my scum claim in which case you have to believe that I was lying about that since you were in it.
Basically, I don't know how you can believe this is true and not have the scum team be Me, Tubba and Kami. Honestly I don't know how anyone can believe this is true in the first place but whatevs. The numbers don't add up either way you slice it.
ETR, Tau, Tom, Whisper, Rhand...The 5 person scum team?
Thats stupid
Think the way you handled it overall is a bit scummy, and youre more or less in the same place as grape where you could be scum but probably need to flip regardless, and the entire middle of your wagon is suspicious people that all look like they could be bussing.
So putting you on scumteams seems like the thing to do right now.
What do you think of the people voting you?
You finish catching up yet?
The ETR posting his scumbuddies is.. A dumb play.
Also, he mentioned Tau, so if any one of them flips town (likely concidering.. Last? Is in your scumteam right now.) last is pushing for Grr, THE SAME GRR You pushed the post BEFORE. So you were on the same page as him.
Given that one post never happend. Find me one definite scum post for each of that team.
Also, On ETR: One question.
His 361 has him kind of scumreading Last. Why would Scum!Etr do this this early when Last (his supposed scumbuddy) is widely considered town?
And why would scum!tom be poushing scumBuddy!etr so hard right now?
Food for thought.
Conciderinbg Grr was Tau's literally huge push the post before, i'm gonna put Grr in the town category.
Vote Tau
I think Tau is trying to get us going on a wild goose chase and i am not having it.
Anyway so worlds (which I know tom already did but you all have to read it again):
Town!EtR/Town!Tau: in this world Tau decides to gambit and EtR sees it and decides to gambit back. Attempting to figure out what mindset this makes sense for EtR from and I'm struggling. I guess his stated explanation makes some amount of sense if you believe Tau, but I'm not sure it's more valuable than just outing him and seeing what happens. It also is just slightly askew with his assertion that he signaled the wrong names. If he believed in his bones that Tau was scum then signalling 2 additional scum makes sense (as a 5 person scum team is way too many if one is a lost wolf) but I'm really skeptical that if he really believed that he just wouldn't out Tau.
Plus it looks really intentional. The 4 questions were not in depth, had very specific targets, and formatted to make 4 as obvious as possible. I have a hard time thinking town EtR (who is a slow methodical player as shown by his catch up style) asked Wisp and Tom the same question on different lines without intending to point to them. Which makes this claim of "I was town gambiting, but signaled the wrong players." incredibly hard to believe. It doesn't seem like these are questions he would have been dying to ask and accidentally forgot to signal his intended targets.
Conclusion: Very unlikely.
Town!EtR/Scum!Tau: Here Tau gets EtR killed and then dies the next day. Given his strength as a player and ego I find this beyond unlikely. It also runs into the EtR incorrectly signaling while running a gambit issue.
Conclusion: Incredibly unlikely.
Scum!EtR/Scum!Tau: Here Tau gets EtR killed but loses a ton of credit when the buddies don't pan out. This is the scenario where Tau messing up the "counter-gambit" feels most probable. They hatch the hyper bus plan and to try and preserve EtR's dunked on the game credit they spill a ton of wine about what EtR "meant" to do. I don't believe it though because I don't think Tau takes that high risk of a line D1.
Conclusion: Unlikely.
Scum!EtR/Town!Tau: Tau runs a gambit, EtR either partially believes him but decides to test Tau by feeding a false list to gauge his reaction or fully believes him and gives the real list. His wine spilling with the incorrect signal makes sense here (spilling wine or attempting to chain townies together). Tau's mindset makes sense to me in this world and EtR's doesn't feel outside the realm of possibility. I think the intentional fake list to test Tau's claim is the more likely outcome. And jives with EtR saying Tau should have questioned the number but then claiming he only signaled 2 buddies.
EtR/Tau>>EtR/Tau>>>EtR/Tau>>>>EtR/Tau
EtR is very likely lying and spilling wine at this stage. His versions of events don't make sense or have an easily understandable town mindset behind them.
Anyway tom gunning for my flip still is a o-O, Rhand's "well time to think long and hard if this is a dichotomy", and Wisp's tonal change to anger makes me think there is a chance EtR got duped but I don't really believe that. Most likely is scum!EtR tested Tau and named 1 or 0 buddies. So time to dig into reactions to this and see what can be found.
Anyways at work, will post later
Your reaction was already weird to me before KA posted fwiw. The post mindreaver was gushing about struck me as stating the obvious as well as strange and self contradictory. I'm not sure why you made it or why Mind thought it was great.
If EtR flips town, I reevaluate. Tau looks quite bad - if I had zero additional info and had to decide the next kill from there, I'd say Tau.
If EtR flips scum, and then we go on to kill one of the people on the list, and that person flips town, that's also reevaluation, but likely means Tau is still clear. I think we'd have to fall back to standard behavioral analysis of the rest of the players - I'd be tempted to play the "why did EtR put together that specific false list" game but that would be difficult.
What is mafia? I thought we were playing pokemon :[
This ETR wagon is dumb.
Since you just love focusing on my emotion, answer me this, what did you think of Kami's evaluation of ETR?
Right...
vote EtR
The ease with which Kami accepts the lynch cascade is very worrysome. Scum if EtR flips scum.
Etr/kami/grape/?
I agree. I think we always have to flip EtR in this situation. I think we also need to flip Tau, but they seem way townie to me.
Vote EtR
Don't want EtR hammered yet, I think there's more to get out of this Day phase.
"more chaos to ensue for more mislynches."
Tubba and Rhand's votes are absolutely gross.
@Tau: Do you get a new ability if EtR dies?
EtR ( 7 ): Grapefruit21 (382); M1ndreaver (385); KamikazeArchon (426); Vaimes (440); Lastwhisper (442); Rhand (467); Tubba Fett (468);
Killjoy ( 1 ): Rumanshi (73);
M1ndreaver ( 1 ): tomsloger (416);
Reaverb Tau ( 1 ): Rodemy (457);
Rhand ( 1 ): LnGrrrR (8);
tomsloger ( 1 ): zdtsd (133);
Tubba Fett ( 1 ): Killjoy (124);
Why?
I don’t have a role name *shrug*
I’m going to be very impressed with myself if my accidental list hits 2+ scum.
Looks like there’s one here.
Also his 405 seems.. genuine and smart and 100% pro town.
Like, all of this feels forced and rushed. And i just, i am not seeing any faultering of his attitude. You'd think scum caught this early would.. explode.
I'd like to call this a gut feeling, and i have been working on following those. But just think for a second about Tau and his ABSOLUTE sudden switch from Grr is scum to Etr and crew (tm) is scum and Grr is town. a 180 like that should at least arise SOME suspicion.
That is not remotely how I'd expect a town PR to react to that. He was under zero obligation to respond like that. And if it was wine (which was how I originally read it and liked it in that fashion) then this follow up is a big stinking pile of contradiction.
The arguement as I see it is "I'd rather hang today than EtR to prove how stupid all of this is. But also you're scummy for pushing this because it equates to pushing to kill me a claimed PR."
Yikes
Also reading through Wisp's ISO to find how he reacted to tom's calling him a PR I realized Wisp spends an awful lot of time asking other people to look at me, explain town reads of me, calling for me to die, and very very very little coherently explaining why I should hang without immeadiately backtracking reasons when pushed.
This combined with tom wanting my flip desperately for "information" and Rhand coming up with the meta deep dive almost convinces me EtR derped and outed his team. It's not the most likely outcome (still is scum!EtR sending a fake list to gauge reaction) but feels more likely after looking at that.
@KJ walk through the scenarios. Poke holes in my logic. Or Toms. Yes the votes have poured in quickly but breaking down the quadrants points to EtR being scum.
It's still Y i k e s.
And for the sake of argument let's say EtR flips scum today. I'm going to push to kill tom tomorrow. The list isn't the most likely answer, but as long as there is a chance it's correct we should pursue it. LW isn't the person I'd choose first off it (tom is the easy first choice) even without the PR claim. If tom flips scum the lol wolves. If tom were to flip town I'd then reevaluate and start digging for wolf reactions with the knowledge that I'm looking for people whose buddy got dunked on but at least didn't ruin the game 100%.
If EtR flips town then we kill Tau. And if he flips town then we learn that yolo gambits are a bad idea.
Tell me how I'm wrong then. I'll wait.
It's like you don't think he's actually scum....
Like, what pertinent info are you gonna get from that question??
Also I disagree on Tubba, obviously. Hopefully I can prove it before I have to leave.
Also also, reads list not in any order within tiers.
His Unofficial Votals are giving me flashbacks to another player (forget which game) doing the same thing as scum. He's being a lowkey Overly Helpful Townie.
Talk to me about this tom. Is this the only reason or is there more to it?
Also, do you still think Grape is scum? I think you were still entertaining the possiblity, yes?
Tom is a very loose townread right now because he does seem to be solving the game. For the most part I'm waiting till later to lock him in (especially if he's still alive) because the longer the game goes on the more info I have.
That said, I had a thought about him recently and wanna see where some questions go. Stay tuned for that.
I agree on Vaimes. I'm waiting for him to just be town!vaimes but he's not yet.
And re Tubba... I'll do some more research and see if I can find more evidence.
Unvote
First, why are you pushing so hard against me vs. Tubba? Sure maybe I'm just wrong but you've mentioned it like four times now. And I'm not seeing anyone agreeing with me on it. Where's the fire?
Also can you explain the bolded in more detail?
This reminds me of a post I made about Osie in a recent game (can't remember the name though. Why do I suck at remembering game names?) which involved calling him out for hedging a bunch, and I was wrong about his alignment. This feels the same. I don't think your points are as strong as you think they are, especially given how inactive he's been in total so far.
Hi. Why town points?
They were people I hadn't really talked a lot to so I wanted info from them.
I also like to make unknowns form opinions on scumreads so they can't retroactively have always been scumreading them for town points.
Re; Riku: Riku is lurking, and I know from personal experiance that he could be mafia for that reason. In Token Power 2, he and I were mafia together. I was doing, like, 95% of the posting for our team because he just wasn't there. I was then informed that that was a lowkey scumtell of his.
Why?
Gonna break up this post. Its getting long.
Killjoy is right that it's weird how fast the EtR wagon happened. I think the set of people who have posted since the EtR wagon started and NOT posted him is {Killjoy, Tomsloger, Rod}
I'll tell you the pertinent info from that question after EtR answers it.
PS: Pasting my answer to this question since it doesn't matter now:
I did not discredit all my reads. I think this was important enough to investigate immediately, it could break the game wide open, but if we decide EtR is Town we can right back to lynch the level 1 scummy people.
I considered writing #378 to be much more hedge-y, but if EtR is scum this will make for a much better story, and I find projecting confidence as Town helps create more real reactions.
I /barn KJ's question
Question, where do you stand in me, @Grape?
I'll tell you a story later since you don't understand why I get so easily angry
Also those two arguments in ur first statement, aren't aligned... Kami is failing to look at things in the game, and just picking at things to push, I'm ok with dying to prove a point, regardless of what role I have, I self hammered in the turbo last night, because people played like garbage, and I'm selfish because I find it hard to believe that the things I see, others just pass right over...
I was also looking for the obvious answer that the You/Tau/ETR/Tubba group can't exist, based on your world view. If ETR is scum, Tau can't be. He just made the one-in-a-million play, in your mind, and won the game for town day one. You said that is 80-90% certain for you. Also, YOU'RE INCLUDED IN THIS SCUM GROUP.
Instead you just went and enumerated the possibilities again, which we're hashed to death. THat means you're not trying to solve, and that means you're scum.
I think the best move is still lynch ETR today, I'll be happy to let Tau prove his new ability, and you start tomorrow as suspect #1 regardless of ETR's flip.
Considering we haven't killed anyone yet I'd say I'm pretty awesome at evaluating without killing. /s
But seriously yes we should do other analysis but in a world where EtR is proven scum I'll have a hard time looking past tom doing [redacted] and being suggested by confirmed scum as a buddy and not wanting him to be the focus tomorrow. As for if EtR is scum I have good reason to believe it outside of the gambit. Your anger is palpable but misguided.
I stand that your focus on me was scummy but the rest of your play was townie in your own way.
On Kami what's your point? You're not out here arguing against sorting this EtR mess so why are you offended that he's looking ahead to tomorrow? Your primary focus is on talking about how you/tom/rhand isn't auto than what anyone should do about EtR, but you're still voting him just like KA. What gives? If it is your big stance that we need to not believe it's autopilot because of Tau's gambit then fine, but all you're doing is flailing at someone who wants to see if it is. And that flailing makes it look like it is autopilot. Anyway even with your explanation I still can't read anything other than berating KA for wanting to lynch a power role while calling for your own death to prove a point.
I have my liar's game matches tonight so i wont be back for a 3 or so hours you can all watch here
Liars Club Twitch
honestly even Rodemy who had an entrance and emotional response I despised looks more townie than the rest of you in terms of your evaluations of ETR... and half the votes dont even state anything, they are just jumping on the wagon
Outside of the gambit, I think ETR is scummy, I called him out even before I knew of the Tau gambit, I didnt not like how he claimed, yet somehow he looks a lot better, yet this dude almost has to die today because of the wway he went about the things he did, it ******* sucks, and im seriously debating if this dude is actually even scum
@grape
this dude is setting up mislynches, this is not a townie mindset, you can argue with me to your blue in the face, but I refuse to believe that town!kami plays this bad, and thinks like this as town
and you constantly attacking my emotions will lead to nothing but a terrible tunnel
anyways back later
I feel like they’ve slid into anti spew a little bit personally, and I don’t recall anything they’ve done prior to this that made much of an impact on the game.
Do you think this makes Tau scum?
Yes. Do you?
Killjoy, I meant that it looked like you were forcing a read when I had like three posts (RVS, comment about LW, and V/LA declaration). All I can really say to "I don't see town!Vaimes yet" at that point is duh.
I thought Reaverb made good points on LnGR, and that LnGR's indecisiveness was over the top.