@Highroller, interesting comment there. "I didn't do anything with regards to a burner phone last night." Rather than just "I didn't do anything last Night."
What the hell else is a vanilla town going to do at night, LnGrrrR?
Also, why would a cheesecake death point to you?
Because I was saying he was the third most likely mafia after you and GJ. Duh.
Fun fact! GJ and I weren't on the Shadow lynch. Do you think that there were 6 townies on that lynch?
Fun fact! 12/4 = 3.
Vote LnGrrrR. Tryhards gon' be tryhards, it seems.
There's only one reason not to use a burner phone in your situation, and that's to "prove" your vanilla status if observed. This is not a town mentality. Nor is wondering what to do with a phone/wondering why you would use it.
@Cabtrip, did you really ask me why I voted Riku? I gave reasons both yesterDay and toDay.
And I know there is scum on Shadows wagon because there were only five people off wagon. Those five include myself, Shadow, and cheesecake, all town. So unless there are only 2 scum, there is at least 1 scum on Shadows lynch.
@Cabtrip, did you really ask me why I voted Riku? I gave reasons both yesterDay and toDay.
Your reasons yesterday should be reassessed; I didn't feel like you were doing that. As for reasons today, eh...are you talking about those few lines at the start of 995? If so, am I correct in understanding you were voting him for a) being a counterwagon to Shadow and b) he "hasn't read towny at all"?
Quote from LnG »
And I know there is scum on Shadows wagon because there were only five people off wagon. Those five include myself, Shadow, and cheesecake, all town. So unless there are only 2 scum, there is at least 1 scum on Shadows lynch.
Lol...I need a :taught: emoji for when I get schooled. Of *course* that would be your perspective (whether genuine or manufactured), eh? My apologies. Although there is still the possibility that it's you, Rhand, and GJ, but...I don't think it is.
@everyone, assuming Riku is telling the truth, he is a watcher. What does it say to you that there was a 1x watcher shot found on Cheesecakes body?
I find it less concerning in a game where half the players every Night are going to likely either be using an ability or burning a phone. The burner phone mechanic makes it more likely for watching observations to get results, but the results aren't as potentially earthshattering as they could be in other games. However, unless Riku is a godfather (or that really crazy outlier of a Vez-Riku-? scumteam), he's telling the truth.
There's only one reason not to use a burner phone in your situation, and that's to "prove" your vanilla status if observed. This is not a town mentality. Nor is wondering what to do with a phone/wondering why you would use it.
What the hell are you talking about?
All a burner phone does is to give you a one-time night PM. What good is that going to do? What would I even do with that? PM someone just to say hey? Use it to hit someone up on Tinder?
You're acting like a weirdo, Cantripmancer. My not-using a burner phone is not suspicious because there's no reason for me to have used it. What need would I have to PM anyone during night? If it could be used during the day, then hot damn, that'd be awesome, but during the night only? Again, what, precisely, was I going to message someone for?
@Highroller, did your reads change at all with cheesecakes and Shadows flip?
On you and GJ? No, of course not.
The question was who else is mafia? I wavered back and forth on Shadow throughout the day. Initially I thought Shadow was mafia, then I thought it he was misguided town. I later wavered on that because there were times I couldn't understand just how he could argue something so obviously, objectively wrong in good faith, but as you became more and more suspicious and it made less and less sense for you two to both be mafia I went back to thinking he was probably town.
Obviously my read has changed on Cheesecake, but I maintain that I had the right to be suspicious of him, he was making bad arguments. So now I don't know who else to add to my list of suspicions.
Also, I find it weird that you specified that you didn't do anything.... with a burner phone. Seems like a weird extra comment T add.
Is this your way of trying to save face from not knowing what the words "vanilla town" mean?
If I'm a vanilla town, what is the ONE possible night action I could have made in this game? Burner phone.
Is it weird wording? No, not if you're thinking from the mindset of a person trying to gather facts instead of looking for an excuse to lynch me.
There were five people off wagon. GJ, myself, shadow, cheese, rhand. Shadow and Cheese are town.
So unless you think Rhand is scum too, then you think there is 1 scum on Shadows lynch.
@Highroller: How does Shadowlancer flipping town affect your view of the game state? I know your read on him fluctuated but, given your first and most obstinate accuser turned out to be town, are you seeing anything in a different light?
Cantrip is scum. I feel it in my toes. Probably with Eco and not with Highroller. I think it’s tom.
That attack on HR for not using the burner phone is too short-sighted to come from town. Cantrip didn’t think that through, and town!Cantrip would.
With Eco, why? Because both are going out of their way to show us that one sent the other a message last Night. I think they chatted more than just sending one one-way message.
With tom, why? Because tom calls Shadow vs HR wagons town/town without reasoning. Reeks like inside info.
Vote Cantrip
Vezok
Riku
Lngr
GJ
Vaimes
Highroller
Eco
tom
Cantrip
@Eco: I’ll look at those posts when I’m not phoneposting.
Highroller (5): Shadow, rhand, tom, cheese, lngrr Shadow (5): Eco, Cantrip, ruma, vez, highroller
Vez (1): GJ
Not voting (1): vaimes
3 hours to deadline
Quote from Final votecount »
Shadow (7): Eco, Cantrip, ruma, vez, highroller, vaimes, tom
Highroller (4): Shadow, rhand, cheese, lngrr
Vez (1): GJ
Highroller is not scum from that eod. It just doesnt feel at any point like w/v. I was starting to think that sometime after vez claim, which is the last time i felt like lynching a wolf was a real possibility. Didnt really think i could swing it to anyone besides those two though.
But anyway yeah. Think that felt like v/v wagons and i think i kust buy townhighroller being this stubbornly useless/self-centered
Cantrip felt like scum at eod i saw that statement earlier got miscontstrued. thats not me defending him thats me softening a negative opinion. Its still a negative, just think scum has no reason to be all ******* weird at eod if neither them or their buddies are in any danger. Dont really need to have decided highroller is town for that conclusion since i dont think a cantrip/highroller team looks particularly likely anyway, but wouldnt have come around to that without the conclusion
Rhand scum for the same reasons as yesterday, and especially if highroller town he is the scummiest on that wagon at every point.
Vez officially my scummiest by behavior alone. Can probably accept that lynching him is not correct but im not buying it.
If he is fakeclaiming scum, ruma probably still town anyway
Vaimes scum for having left (what used to be) his scumrange completely. Hes really gotten better.
Lngrr scum for having no agenda to speak of and just no worries at all
Eco scum for being capable of faking it but it just looks like town process. Even when i dont agree, he clearly put a lot of work into rhat rhand post which amounts (to me) to learning rhands playstyle and barely concluding anything i can just see him believing it.
Ruma... idk is usually town if scumvez and town if townvez barring godfather so hes prolly just town
Cantrip/gj are at this point nullish reads that become a "lean scum" tier by gravity/poe
@Highroller: How does Shadowlancer flipping town affect your view of the game state? I know your read on him fluctuated but, given your first and most obstinate accuser turned out to be town, are you seeing anything in a different light?
Well, like I said, I moved back and forth on him, so the fact that I have a hard confirmation on him being town is helpful.
The fact of the matter is I had 5 people shading me yesterday (shadowlancerx, GJ, LnGrrrR, Cheesecake, and Vaimes), and do not believe all 5 were town. Of them, and of course I fluctuated on this, but I got around to believing that shadowlancerx was the least suspicious of them. As I said before, he was at least making an argument. He was taking evidence and drawing conclusions from it. He was at least doing the work. There was also - and this is my fault for not rereading the game more thoroughly sooner, but the past two weeks were just so crazy and chaotic - the fact that it was clear based on events earlier in the day that LnGrrrR and shadowlancerx were unlikely to be mafia together. It just wouldn't make any sense.
So, we have a now-confirmed town adamantly trying to lynch someone who was town (which, granted, I know this because I have my role PM, I don't expect you all to just take my word for it), it was a day with no real strong bandwagons, and the guy whom the now-confirmed town was trying to lynch hadn't made very many posts at the time. Who would I look for? I'd look for people making posts shading me without really committing to a vote, particularly people who, when called later on this and asking why these people thought I was suspicious, presenting flimsy arguments that don't read like someone who had gathered evidence and drawn a conclusion that I was mafia, but instead were trying to get a bandwagon going first, then figure out reasoning second.
@Highroller: How does Shadowlancer flipping town affect your view of the game state? I know your read on him fluctuated but, given your first and most obstinate accuser turned out to be town, are you seeing anything in a different light?
Well, like I said, I moved back and forth on him, so the fact that I have a hard confirmation on him being town is helpful.
The fact of the matter is I had 5 people shading me yesterday (shadowlancerx, GJ, LnGrrrR, Cheesecake, and Vaimes), and do not believe all 5 were town. Of them, and of course I fluctuated on this, but I got around to believing that shadowlancerx was the least suspicious of them. As I said before, he was at least making an argument. He was taking evidence and drawing conclusions from it. He was at least doing the work. There was also - and this is my fault for not rereading the game more thoroughly sooner, but the past two weeks were just so crazy and chaotic - the fact that it was clear based on events earlier in the day that LnGrrrR and shadowlancerx were unlikely to be mafia together. It just wouldn't make any sense.
So, we have a now-confirmed town adamantly trying to lynch someone who was town (which, granted, I know this because I have my role PM, I don't expect you all to just take my word for it), it was a day with no real strong bandwagons, and the guy whom the now-confirmed town was trying to lynch hadn't made very many posts at the time. Who would I look for? I'd look for people making posts shading me without really committing to a vote, particularly people who, when called later on this and asking why these people thought I was suspicious, presenting flimsy arguments that don't read like someone who had gathered evidence and drawn a conclusion that I was mafia, but instead were trying to get a bandwagon going first, then figure out reasoning second.
Guess who fits that to a T? LnGrrrR and GJ.
I mean, I shaded you, but also started to like you a bit more, and cheesecake a bit less.
But that said:On you and GJ? No, of course not.
The question was who else is mafia? I wavered back and forth on Shadow throughout the day. Initially I thought Shadow was mafia, then I thought it he was misguided town. I later wavered on that because there were times I couldn't understand just how he could argue something so obviously, objectively wrong in good faith, but as you became more and more suspicious and it made less and less sense for you two to both be mafia I went back to thinking he was probably town.
The fact that apparently, your reads haven't changed, and your arrogance that all 3 wolves have to be voting you is nagl.
Cantrip is scum. I feel it in my toes. Probably with Eco and not with Highroller. I think it’s tom.
That attack on HR for not using the burner phone is too short-sighted to come from town. Cantrip didn’t think that through, and town!Cantrip would.
With Eco, why? Because both are going out of their way to show us that one sent the other a message last Night. I think they chatted more than just sending one one-way message.
With tom, why? Because tom calls Shadow vs HR wagons town/town without reasoning. Reeks like inside info.
Vote Cantrip
Vezok
Riku
Lngr
GJ
Vaimes
Highroller
Eco
tom
Cantrip
@Eco: I’ll look at those posts when I’m not phoneposting.
If you think Cantrip is taking a cheapshot at HR for a not thought out plan, why is Highroller so low on the list for you? Unless you think it's possible w/w, but that doesn't meld with the rest of your post?
Rhand and cantrip both scum, but not together.
Gut says i want to lynch in those two today tbh, but we got a lot of time. No dichotomy there but based on my reads and some world building theres usually one scum in the two which helps solving the other a lot.
Actually wanna vote cantrip aorn.
This is not a "cantrip is scummier than rhand now" but rather a "yeah ok maybe im tunnelled this is the scumflip that would get me out of it if im wrong"
His eod isnt as bad with highroller being town, but some amount of the rest of his play looks worse
Lets call the two of them a new tier thats still more likely town than vez but below the pile of shrugs and sighs that is gj
Would not vote outside of those 4 (vez, rhand, cantrip, gj) today barring something major happening.
Rhand and cantrip both scum, but not together.
Gut says i want to lynch in those two today tbh, but we got a lot of time. No dichotomy there but based on my reads and some world building theres usually one scum in the two which helps solving the other a lot.
Actually wanna vote cantrip aorn.
This is not a "cantrip is scummier than rhand now" but rather a "yeah ok maybe im tunnelled this is the scumflip that would get me out of it if im wrong"
His eod isnt as bad with highroller being town, but some amount of the rest of his play looks worse
Lets call the two of them a new tier thats still more likely town than vez but below the pile of shrugs and sighs that is gj
Would not vote outside of those 4 (vez, rhand, cantrip, gj) today barring something major happening.
You JUST played a wolf game with me, why are you struggling to hard to read me?
All a burner phone does is to give you a one-time night PM. What good is that going to do? What would I even do with that? PM someone just to say hey? Use it to hit someone up on Tinder?
You're acting like a weirdo, Cantripmancer. My not-using a burner phone is not suspicious because there's no reason for me to have used it. What need would I have to PM anyone during night? If it could be used during the day, then hot damn, that'd be awesome, but during the night only? Again, what, precisely, was I going to message someone for?
I've been thinking about this long and hard since the game began (no, Rhand, I very much thought it through), and here are the reasons I *did* send a message:
1) If I died during the Night, my thoughts and perspective would be available to someone who lived. To that end, I tried to send the message to someone I thought was town (because scum would just cherry pick any information to filter through if I died), and to someone I didn't think would be NK'd (because that'd be useless as well, not to mention muddying the waters if an observer witnessed the interaction). 2) If I didn't die and successfully targeted town who also didn't die, I'd have a chance to provide thoughts that the player would be able to use to hold me accountable for the rest of the game. Plus, I'd be better positioned to see how the recipient used the information I sent them, and if they were scum, they'd have a harder time navigating the pitfalls of "what do I know, what am I supposed to know, what do I know only because Cantrip said it, how do I continue faking my reads in conjunction with what Cantrip told me, etc". 3) One of the first things I did when the game started was to ask Grape if players could use a burner phone AND another action in the same Night. He indicated that using a burner phone prevents a player from using another action (but would NOT confirm or deny if scum could use a burner phone AND NK in the same Night). So verification of use of a burner phone doesn't preclude a player from being the one who performed the NK, but it does prevent them from performing other negative actions such as roleblocking. Every player who gained a coin last night and didn't use a burner phone needs to (eventually, not immediately) account for why they didn't use that coin. 4) I had a juicy secret, and I wanted to share it with someone, eh?
So going into the Night, I knew that HR had a coin. I knew that he had claimed VT, so he didn't have anything else to do with his coin. And seeing as how it's THE featured game mechanic, I figured there was NO WAY that HR hadn't taken advantage of the opportunity to use a phone. But he comes in and says he didn't.
@HR: Not only does NOT using the resources at your disposal not reflect a town mindset, but the only reason I can think of for you to claim it the way you did is because you misread Riku's post the same way I did. I thought he was saying he tracked you, but that's not what he said at all. He said he watched you, which usually means that he was seeing if anyone targeted you, not if you performed any actions. So your knee-jerk response was "oh, of course I didn't do anything with a burner phone b/c VT *nervous laugh*". But there's no reason to claim your actions in response to being watched. If you were town, especially VT with nothing else to do with your coin, I can't imagine that you wouldn't have thoughts similar to my own.
Didn't think you were going to die during the Night and thus didn't need to pass along your game thoughts? Ok, but you're "town", so you don't know whether you might die or not (hey, vigs are a thing, too). Pass them along anyway!
Didn't want to reach out to anyone because you might spill something to scum? a) You're VT, so you're not going to give anything about your role away, and b) what are you really going to say in a missive like that that you're not just going to say in-thread the next Day? Reach out anyway!
Didn't know that using the burner phone wouldn't help eliminate you from the list of players responsible for a negative action? Why weren't you thinking about that possibility? It's a game mechanic; use it!
Didn't have a juicy secret? Well...ok, not all of us can have a juicy secret (and mine's not really all that juicy).
I just can't imagine town not at least trying to use the game mechanic to their advantage. But scum has plenty of reasons to "appear" like they're doing nothing and they're oh so innocent.
Anyways, it’s all related reads; I need to see Cantrip’s flip to solodify them.
a) You're going to have to do better than that if you want to see my flip. b) Let's say I get dayvigged as soon as I post this; what does my town flip do to your reads? Who's scum then?
@Riku: Please confirm: you're a watcher (that is, you are informed of the players who targeted your target)? And did you successfully target HR and didn't see that anyone targeted him, or were you informed that your ability was unsuccessful?
@Tom: Are you seriously thinking that Vez is fakeclaiming cop? With that elaborate "need two coins" ploy? If scum!Vez was to fakeclaim cop, I don't think he'd think to toss that aspect into the claim. Vez should NOT be on ANYONE's table toDay barring a counterclaim (which, unless the counterclaimer found scum last Night, a counterclaim shouldn't happen toDay, either).
No way should Vez or Riku be a lynch today. That should get sorted out one way or another. And Vez should be on the lynch today in order to force scum to hit him, or force them to burn a RB, or let him keep clearing. (And if he is scum, he has to keep clearing townies. As soon as a "cleared" townie flips scum, his options become extremely limited.)
@Highroller, so, you think shadow and Cheese are scum, they both flip town, but instead of thinking, "Damn, maybe I did look scummy there" or even, "Hmm maybe it's reasonable a townie might find me scummy", you instead just continue to plow through with no changes to your scumread other than the obvious flips.
Oh and you avoided this question: Who do you think the third scum is Rhand? Or do you think there is scum on Shadows wagon? if so, who?
If you aren't scum, then why did the wagon on shadow form and get pushed through, instead of scum pushing yours or Riku's lynch through?
No way should Vez or Riku be a lynch today. That should get sorted out one way or another. And Vez should be on the lynch today in order to force scum to hit him, or force them to burn a RB, or let him keep clearing. (And if he is scum, he has to keep clearing townies. As soon as a "cleared" townie flips scum, his options become extremely limited.)
@Highroller, so, you think shadow and Cheese are scum, they both flip town, but instead of thinking, "Damn, maybe I did look scummy there" or even, "Hmm maybe it's reasonable a townie might find me scummy", you instead just continue to plow through with no changes to your scumread other than the obvious flips.
Oh and you avoided this question: Who do you think the third scum is Rhand? Or do you think there is scum on Shadows wagon? if so, who?
If you aren't scum, then why did the wagon on shadow form and get pushed through, instead of scum pushing yours or Riku's lynch through?
Theory question for you:
If we mislynch today, and vezok is still alive, what do you do tomorrow?
Why would Riku watch anyone who isn't a cop claim?
@Cantrip: To your point #3, I wouldn't have even thought about that, and I am one of the oldest players here, apart from you and vezok. I also don't think Highroller would have thought he was a high nk choice, considering he thinks he is being pushed as a mislynch (if we assume he is coming at this from a town perspective).
From the wolf perspective, I see him being aggro towards other players, but I don't really see an attempt to get other people to join him. Maybe he is just bad as a wolf, but I would have thought he would at least make an attempt, considering how much of a debate veteran he is.
@Vezok: Ignore me, I don't know how the **** I missed the peek in the same post I quoted. I don't really have an excuse, but why wouldn't you investigate Rhand?
Gj scum for asking good questions to everyone but me.
Come on man what do you think you've done worth moving you out of null?
Tom scum for voting vez to state his opinion for the record, then moving on to someone that should actually be a lynch candidate today.
I guess.
Yes obviously dont lynch vez today in the event hes real scum have to deal with him. I still think hes scum though.
Gj scum for asking good questions to everyone but me.
Come on man what do you think you've done worth moving you out of null?
Tom scum for voting vez to state his opinion for the record, then moving on to someone that should actually be a lynch candidate today.
I guess.
Yes obviously dont lynch vez today in the event hes real scum have to deal with him. I still think hes scum though.
Hottake: Vezok/Riku wolves together, trying to ride out two days to win, and the last wolf is a deep wolf.
@tom: Your last post hit a weird cord with me. You normally don't give a **** about what people think about you, why do you sound like you are trying to justify your cantrip vote so hard?
Gj scum for asking good questions to everyone but me.
Come on man what do you think you've done worth moving you out of null?
Tom scum for voting vez to state his opinion for the record, then moving on to someone that should actually be a lynch candidate today.
I guess.
Yes obviously dont lynch vez today in the event hes real scum have to deal with him. I still think hes scum though.
I am not lurking and actually care about hunting this game. Playstation, I just shamelessly barned people, read what people were thinking, and then said things I new people I was pocketing would agree with. Played LW as a fiddle, until Kpaca just turned him against me.
(I know he isn't here to ask this but OoG, wtf was that part about forgetting who I actually was)
I am around but drinking. GJ, who is scum on Shadows wagon?
I would go Vezok/Riku right now, with my spicy theory (because if this were MU< someone would have said it now).
If Highroller is town, last one is one of Lngrrr/Rhand.
I don't think Rhand is ever a wolf if vezok/Riku is.
If I throw that theory out, hard to say. I am leaning towards the wagons being v/v, so that probably means all three aren't on shadow. At least one would be on Highroller. If Highroller is a wolf, all three would probably be on Shadow.
Boy, it would have been nice if Vezok peeked Highroller. Unless he had a particular thought about Highroller.
Blah lost my post. In short, would scum Riku and scum Vezok gamble without knowing any town roles? When another scumbuddy could still be lynched/caught? I think taking a risk lynching Riku/Vezok on d2 isn't worth it, even if I don't fully understand their play.
I think Highroller is the best play today, at least now. When I reread Cantrip, I still thought he was towny enough, even if EOC and today is a bit weird.
Probably will reread some more to clarify and solidify views.
@Cantrip, I find it weird you shaded me for my vote analysis. Did you think my comment was towny or scummy? Gut reaction.
So I'm voting Tom. YesterDay I was town reading him basically because I agreed with him over Shadow very early, and I thought his "catch" on Rhand was decent (and lined up with the Shadow/Rhand scum team hypothesis). Tom was also not open wolfing, which is his town meta. However, since I've reconsidered my Rhand stance, I'm not actually so sure on Tom.I feel like it's very easy for Tom to just write someone off as scum for "reacting poorly" to the gimmick he's doing, in particular in this case where Rhand apparently took Tom's scum-labelling very literally. Something else Tom likes to do as mafia is let mislynches happen by deliberately not stopping them - and him now thinking Shadow/HR was t/t (despite voting for both of them) lines up with that.
@Tom: Can you explain why EoD didn't feel like w/v? And also more words behind your Rhand read.
@Highroller: Thank you. Given Shadow being town, do you particularly agree or disagree with any reads that he had? Do you have any town reads (whether related to interactions with you or not)? Do you think both LnGrrR and GJ can both be Mafia?
@Rhand: I didn't think it was actually that obvious, but yes Cantrip sent me a message last Night. I was actually prepared to come in to toDay with Cantrip pretty much at the bottom of my list, but then he sent me a 2,000 word epic detailing his last will and testament. Now, I think his fear of being killed was overly melodramatic and we have some pretty different reads, but I owe him at least the effort of parsing it.
Did you really honestly expect to get killed at Night? I'm really struggling to understand how you could have so seriously considered yourself to be a high priority kill for either the mafia or a vig.
Could you explain why the reread notes you sent to me last Night read so much like someone reading the game for the first time, rather than someone rereading?
Could you also explain why - while pressed for time to assemble a last will and testament - you focussed on the game from the start, as opposed to analysing more useful parts of the Day? (e.g. the lynch or reactions to claims).
Your T/S list you've posted has some difference to ones you posted yesterDay. Could you explain how these changes have come to pass - is it just a result of Shadow's flip + the bit of the game you managed to re-read? When rougly in terms of real-life time would you say you settled on that list?
Well, if he is town, I would look far more heavily at Riku. Also, it would take one more person off the Shadow wagon to analyze. I think HR being scum would provide a lot more interactions, since I think it would clear GJ.
Honestly, I thought HR was super towny in Banned Mafia while rereading, and I don't get that here. There are some similarities, but overall, he feels far less towny and weirdly refuses to scumhunt anyone that isn't on him. HR hasn't made one attack on anyone that hasn't suspected him, AFAICT.
Well, if he is town, I would look far more heavily at Riku. Also, it would take one more person off the Shadow wagon to analyze. I think HR being scum would provide a lot more interactions, since I think it would clear GJ.
Honestly, I thought HR was super towny in Banned Mafia while rereading, and I don't get that here. There are some similarities, but overall, he feels far less towny and weirdly refuses to scumhunt anyone that isn't on him. HR hasn't made one attack on anyone that hasn't suspected him, AFAICT.
I'm going to ask you to delve into some more detail here: why would you look at (curretly blue-checked) Riku? Why would HR scum clear GJ? Would you really only get one read for each side of the flip? And why does he feel less towny here, and what did he do in Banned that was so towny?
If HR is newbscum, maybe to fake scumhunt he is only attacking those suspecting him. He has pointedly avoided answering my question about scum on Shadows wagon multiple times, as well as at this point nearly refusing to ask questions of others not suspecting him.
Given that, I assume that if he flips scum, his single mindedness likely makes GJ town
As noted before, if HR is town, then I look at Riku for the way wagons formed D1. If HR is town, and Riku is town, why would scum form a Shadow wagon?
There's probably more reads that would be generated, but two of the people who suspected HR are dead, and I am town so... *shrug* Plus not sure what I would think at that point since more stuff would play out, this is just right now.
Banned he didn't seem afraid to go after anyone. He was strodent, but didn't read as defensively. HR has only gone on the offensive on people who suspect him. He also refuses to use context. He reminds me of the man who considers pushing a woman into a train and pushing a woman away from a train to be the same thing, because in both cases the woman is getting pushed, right?
@Eco, guessing you think rhand/Tom are unaligned. Are there any other unaligned pairs?
@Cantrip: To your point #3, I wouldn't have even thought about that, and I am one of the oldest players here, apart from you and vezok. I also don't think Highroller would have thought he was a high nk choice, considering he thinks he is being pushed as a mislynch (if we assume he is coming at this from a town perspective).
I wouldn't expect *everyone* to think of point #3 (and obviously, given the dearth of D1 discussion, either very few people thought of it and just kept it to themselves, or I'm in an extreme minority on that point, but...that would seem odd to me knowing that it's popular to ). And I thought I was a fair middling chance of being the NK, less likely when Shadow flipped town, of course. But I didn't know, so I sent my thoughts elsewhere. Like I said...don't care if you're queued up to be the next Day's lynch with no chance of being the NK. You have a coin and nothing else to do with it? Why aren't you using the game resources as best you can, eh?
Quote from GJ »
From the wolf perspective, I see him being aggro towards other players, but I don't really see an attempt to get other people to join him. Maybe he is just bad as a wolf, but I would have thought he would at least make an attempt, considering how much of a debate veteran he is.
I...don't see this as an argument against HR being scum? I can think of [i]many[/i] players who don't attempt to get other people to join them. Seppel, kpaca, even Tom to an extent come to mind immediately. I could very easily see HR, not having played scum in many years (if ever?) deciding he's just going to adopt the prickly pear persona for the whole game and count on people going "oh that's just how HR is".
Blah lost my post. In short, would scum Riku and scum Vezok gamble without knowing any town roles? When another scumbuddy could still be lynched/caught? I think taking a risk lynching Riku/Vezok on d2 isn't worth it, even if I don't fully understand their play.
I think [i]if[/i] we were to tinfoil down this avenue, it would go something like 1) Vezok was pushed to claim; 2) he fakeclaimed cop; 3) the scumteam took the lack of counterclaim as evidence that there's no cop in the setup; 4) they decided to gamble even [i]further[/i] and have scum!Vez clear scum!Riku. That just seems...like a lot of risk for not a lot of reward. It's possible that they looked at the town lineup against them and threw their hands in the air shouting YOLO and went for it, but...it feels like the kind of gambit that would be very likely to catch up with them before they won.
Quote from LnG »
@Cantrip, I find it weird you shaded me for my vote analysis. Did you think my comment was towny or scummy? Gut reaction.
By "shaded", do you mean where I said "Why are you so certain of this?" in [url=https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/804103-secret-agent-mafia-day-2-from-russia-with-love?comment=1000]#1000[/url]? If so, that wasn't shade; it was curiosity. I thought it sounded confident, but didn't immediately see why you were confident, so I asked.
So I'm voting Tom. YesterDay I was town reading him basically because I agreed with him over Shadow very early, and I thought his "catch" on Rhand was decent (and lined up with the Shadow/Rhand scum team hypothesis). Tom was also not open wolfing, which is his town meta. However, since I've reconsidered my Rhand stance, I'm not actually so sure on Tom.I feel like it's very easy for Tom to just write someone off as scum for "reacting poorly" to the gimmick he's doing, in particular in this case where Rhand apparently took Tom's scum-labelling very literally. Something else Tom likes to do as mafia is let mislynches happen by deliberately not stopping them - and him now thinking Shadow/HR was t/t (despite voting for both of them) lines up with that.
Do you feel my observations in-message on Tom's 330 and 411 fit in with what you know of his scum meta?
Quote from Eco »
I was actually prepared to come in to toDay with Cantrip pretty much at the bottom of my list, but then he sent me a 2,000 word epic detailing his last will and testament. Now, I think his fear of being killed was overly melodramatic and we have some pretty different reads, but I owe him at least the effort of parsing it.
I think if you reread my message, you'll note that there's very little "fear" of being killed. The melodramatic feel you're getting is likely a result of me being in a secret agent mindset when I wrote it. But if Shadow were here, he'd be the first to warn you that me putting in the work and sending you that message should [i]not[/i] be AI. My first rule as scum is "don't be lazy", so don't let the [i]length[/i] be a factor. Judge me on my reads and decisions.
Did you really honestly expect to get killed at Night? I'm really struggling to understand how you could have so seriously considered yourself to be a high priority kill for either the mafia or a vig.
Pre-Shadow flipping town? I thought I was a fair-to-slightly higher chance based on my playing ability, with a slight increased possibility due to what I mentioned in the message, compounded by who was on the scum team. Post-EoD1, I figured my chances went way down, but, again, reread the first paragraph of my message and tell me again that I "expected" to get killed. Half of what I wrote was discussing how I planned to handle D2 if I lived, so, no, I wasn't expecting to be the NK. I figured my chances of being vigged might be a little higher, but...
Quote from Eco »
Could you explain why the reread notes you sent to me last Night read so much like someone reading the game for the first time, rather than someone rereading?
I'm not entirely sure that I understand where you're getting that feeling, given that several of my notes say things like "I didn't see the awkwardness the first time I read this" and "I didn't get...the first time through", but if you got that feeling, it's probably because my primary suspect flipped town. I almost always find it beneficial to reread a game post-flip with as blank a slate as possible. To do so completely is impossible, of course, but there are things I definitely see differently on subsequent rereads using that approach. When I lead the charge on a town lynch, I obviously need to reassess more than usual.
Quote from Eco »
Could you also explain why - while pressed for time to assemble a last will and testament - you focussed on the game from the start, as opposed to analysing more useful parts of the Day? (e.g. the lynch or reactions to claims).
I didn't start out pressed for time. I started my reread as soon as D1 ended and worked on it a little at a time. I planned on doing the bulk of the work the night before the deadline, but had a bad headache, so I was doing as much as I could the next morning. Didn't feel like it would be productive to skip a bunch in the middle and hope that I jumped to a part of the Day that provided insight. I am still working on finishing it, just now with a few more question marks resolved.
Quote from Eco »
Your T/S list you've posted has some difference to ones you posted yesterDay. Could you explain how these changes have come to pass - is it just a result of Shadow's flip + the bit of the game you managed to re-read? When rougly in terms of real-life time would you say you settled on that list?
[/numlist]
Are you talking about the one I sent in the message/posted at the start of my first post toDay? If so, then versus the list I posted in [url=https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/804103-secret-agent-mafia-day-2-from-russia-with-love?comment=719]719[/url]:
• Tom moved up because of what I saw in 330/441, despite some frustrations I had with him during EoD. It's possible if I had finished my reread he wouldn't have been as high, but I stand by what I communicated to you.
• You and Riku switching places...isn't necessarily significant?
• Vez moved up for his claim.
• GJ moved up for the observations I made in the message.
• HR and Cheesecake fell to the bottom in part because I [i]wasn't[/i] getting strong town vibes from any of their posts, as well as PoE.
And I can tell you [i]to the half hour[/i] when I made that list: it was in the 30-60 minutes pre-deadline when I realized I had to stop rereading and write the message. Ideally, I'd have finished my reread and notes, created summaries for each player, reviewed those to make my updated list, used that to decide whom to send the message to, reviewed my notes to remove any [redacted] aspects that might point scum to PR's if the person I was sending my message to was actually scum, then updated the reads list with tl;dr's rather than just a blank list. As it was, I made sure the important steps were taken and figured the rest could be discussed toDay.
BTW, Grape confirmed with me that while *you* can't quote my message, *I* can copy-pasta my own message here verbatim, if desired, since it's just my own thoughts. So if you think it'd be a good idea, I am perfectly happy and willing to dump that whole thing into the thread (tucked into a spoiler for the faint of heart), with my secret (and one note about you) redacted (or not, if you think that needs to be made known, too). The primary intent of the communication was to ensure that my thoughts survived if I did not.
Um...that last line ("List tags are malformed.") wasn't me...and obviously me not removing the end of Eco's numlist mangled all the formatting of my post. It should still be intelligible, though. Lol.
Haven't reread anything, but I had a thought about Cantrip and wanted to share. I really doubt Cantrip as scum does that whole fiasco with shadow. It's way too unprofessional for Cantrip and borderline rude to insist that you need a real flip before believing him.
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I find it weird that no one is talking about Vaimes and his night 0 comments.
cantripmancer: ... This is embarrassing.
I didn't use a burner phone because there's nothing I would have accomplished with one. My thoughts on the game were well-established on Day 1. What was I going to say, exactly? "I'm town, not mafia?" If I were dead, everyone would be notified of that.
The fact that apparently, your reads haven't changed, and your arrogance that all 3 wolves have to be voting you is nagl.
I'm not saying all three. I'm saying that at least one, possibly two, and you two are by far the two most suspicious people so far.
Also, I'M arrogant? I'M the one who's arrogant? Says the guy who thought my tone made me suspicious when I'd only posted 12 sentences? Says the guy who thought I was suspicious because I didn't scumhunt enough in 12 sentences? Who do you think you are, Professor Xavier? Because clearly you must be clairvoyant if you can spot a mafia from that.
@Highroller, so, you think shadow and Cheese are scum, they both flip town, but instead of thinking, "Damn, maybe I did look scummy there" or even, "Hmm maybe it's reasonable a townie might find me scummy", you instead just continue to plow through with no changes to your scumread other than the obvious flips.
Yes, because you two were the most suspicious ones. Moreover, neither of you posted any logical reason for thinking I was suspicious. Instead you made posts that smacked of bandwagoning, jumping from one reason or another to justify suspicion.
The fact that two of the five people flipped town is just more reason to be suspicious of you two. It's clear to me at least one mafia among the five people shading me. Cheesecake's death just helped to rule him out, making it even more likely that it's you.
Oh and you avoided this question: Who do you think the third scum is Rhand? Or do you think there is scum on Shadows wagon? if so, who?
I haven't avoided this question, I've said yes to it. I do believe that there was a mafia on the shadowlancerx wagon. I don't know who it was.
Now here's a question for you: do you believe that of the five people who tried to promote suspicion on me, none of them are mafia?
If you aren't scum, then why did the wagon on shadow form and get pushed through, instead of scum pushing yours or Riku's lynch through?
Nice WIFOM there.
I have no idea why shadowlancerx got lynched instead of me.
Haven't reread anything, but I had a thought about Cantrip and wanted to share. I really doubt Cantrip as scum does that whole fiasco with shadow. It's way too unprofessional for Cantrip and borderline rude to insist that you need a real flip before believing him.
Um...what specifically are you referring to here, eh? And will you answer my question at the top of 1040, please?
I didn't use a burner phone because there's nothing I would have accomplished with one. My thoughts on the game were well-established on Day 1. What was I going to say, exactly? "I'm town, not mafia?" If I were dead, everyone would be notified of that.
...this is...eh...meh... Ok, so what do you (specifically you, HR) do as town during Night? I will freely admit that there are times when I either don't have time to reread, or I'm outed as confirmed town and highly likely to be the NK and choose not to reread, but I always want to reread and do so if the opportunity arises. When I read the burner phone rules the first time I thought they opened chats, but once Grape set me straight that it was just a one-time message, the first application I thought of was to convey last will and testament thoughts in case of death.
I'm seriously baffled by any player who starts a game and doesn't at least think about how the game mechanics can be used to advantage. Like, if I were scum, I'd be ALLLLL over the opportunity to try to pocket someone and sow wifom/dischord/craziness (and yeah, I sent a message to someone I say I'm townreading, so yeah, I could totally be openly wolfing, but I'm not, but you can't trust that, so it's wifom, so go find something else to attack me for). In fact, here's a fun tidbit that you can confirm by asking Grape: burner phones are anonymous unless otherwise specified! I didn't even think to ask Grape about that until after I had sent my message, but if I were scum, I'm pretty sure I would have asked that question a lot sooner. I don't think divulging this is going to be detrimental to town because now we're on our guard (and I think an anonymous message would be met with serious scrutiny anyway), but it's just one example of the kinds of things a game mechanic leads to. To say "I didn't even consider utilizing a resource/mechanic that's in the game" feels...ludicrous to me. Even if you see yourself as a "purist" and commit to relying only on reads/never using mechanics (lolwut?), as part of the game, you've got to be thinking about how the other team might be trying to use/subvert the mechanics!
It's the weekend, so while I'll probably be on later tonight, quasi-V/LA until Monday.
Eh, sorry, Vez. You said you hadn't reread anything, probably meaning you hadn't caught up from the last time you posted. I'm sure you'll get around to 1040 when you read it.
I find it weird that no one is talking about Vaimes and his night 0 comments.
N0 is a thing on MU, and impo, it's a really stupid thing. It is almost assurdely not in this game, and I think he was just being cheeky. Relatively NAI comment.
'm not saying all three. I'm saying that at least one, possibly two, and you two are by far the two most suspicious people so far.
Also, I'M arrogant? I'M the one who's arrogant? Says the guy who thought my tone made me suspicious when I'd only posted 12 sentences? Says the guy who thought I was suspicious because I didn't scumhunt enough in 12 sentences? Who do you think you are, Professor Xavier? Because clearly you must be clairvoyant if you can spot a mafia from that.
And yet, I moved on you. You are either purposefully or conveniently forgetting that the other issue was that everyone who was active was coming off town. That's why I also threw Az/Vez up as a suggestion.
Arrogant would be me lambasting a person and thinking I made a correct read post 200 and never questioning it.
If you don't think I'm mafia, then why not vote LnGrrrR?
I mean, I think Rhand is more likely than LnGrrr. You also understand how I came to that conclusion was not just on you being or not being town. It was on the theory that Vezok/Riku are w/w. Kind of a key point there.
No one that pushes into, "I strongly doubt this guy's mafia" yet, no.
Bold.
Obviously they CAN both be mafia. I don't know if they ARE both mafia, but they both are the most suspicious people by a wide margin.
You are coming off ridiculously flaky, you know that, right?
No, I am also a RB if I spend coins.
What the hell else is a vanilla town going to do at night, LnGrrrR?
Because I was saying he was the third most likely mafia after you and GJ. Duh.
Fun fact! 12/4 = 3.
Vote LnGrrrR. Tryhards gon' be tryhards, it seems.
... Why would I?
What, precisely, was I going to supposed to do with the burner phone?
There's only one reason not to use a burner phone in your situation, and that's to "prove" your vanilla status if observed. This is not a town mentality. Nor is wondering what to do with a phone/wondering why you would use it.
Unvote
I’ll get to this tomorrow but saw vezok’s check.
And I know there is scum on Shadows wagon because there were only five people off wagon. Those five include myself, Shadow, and cheesecake, all town. So unless there are only 2 scum, there is at least 1 scum on Shadows lynch.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
@Highroller, did your reads change at all with cheesecakes and Shadows flip?
Also, I find it weird that you specified that you didn't do anything.... with a burner phone. Seems like a weird extra comment T add.
There were five people off wagon. GJ, myself, shadow, cheese, rhand. Shadow and Cheese are town.
So unless you think Rhand is scum too, then you think there is 1 scum on Shadows lynch.
Do you think Rhand is scum? Or do you think there is at least 1 scum on Shadows lynch? if the latter, who is it?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
@Riku, for clarification, did you target him unsuccessfully? Or were you told he didn't go anywhere?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Lol...I need a :taught: emoji for when I get schooled. Of *course* that would be your perspective (whether genuine or manufactured), eh? My apologies. Although there is still the possibility that it's you, Rhand, and GJ, but...I don't think it is.
I've been called worse.
I find it less concerning in a game where half the players every Night are going to likely either be using an ability or burning a phone. The burner phone mechanic makes it more likely for watching observations to get results, but the results aren't as potentially earthshattering as they could be in other games. However, unless Riku is a godfather (or that really crazy outlier of a Vez-Riku-? scumteam), he's telling the truth.
All a burner phone does is to give you a one-time night PM. What good is that going to do? What would I even do with that? PM someone just to say hey? Use it to hit someone up on Tinder?
You're acting like a weirdo, Cantripmancer. My not-using a burner phone is not suspicious because there's no reason for me to have used it. What need would I have to PM anyone during night? If it could be used during the day, then hot damn, that'd be awesome, but during the night only? Again, what, precisely, was I going to message someone for?
On you and GJ? No, of course not.
The question was who else is mafia? I wavered back and forth on Shadow throughout the day. Initially I thought Shadow was mafia, then I thought it he was misguided town. I later wavered on that because there were times I couldn't understand just how he could argue something so obviously, objectively wrong in good faith, but as you became more and more suspicious and it made less and less sense for you two to both be mafia I went back to thinking he was probably town.
Obviously my read has changed on Cheesecake, but I maintain that I had the right to be suspicious of him, he was making bad arguments. So now I don't know who else to add to my list of suspicions.
Is this your way of trying to save face from not knowing what the words "vanilla town" mean?
If I'm a vanilla town, what is the ONE possible night action I could have made in this game? Burner phone.
Is it weird wording? No, not if you're thinking from the mindset of a person trying to gather facts instead of looking for an excuse to lynch me.
12/4 = 3. Correct.
That attack on HR for not using the burner phone is too short-sighted to come from town. Cantrip didn’t think that through, and town!Cantrip would.
With Eco, why? Because both are going out of their way to show us that one sent the other a message last Night. I think they chatted more than just sending one one-way message.
With tom, why? Because tom calls Shadow vs HR wagons town/town without reasoning. Reeks like inside info.
Vote Cantrip
Vezok
Riku
Lngr
GJ
Vaimes
Highroller
Eco
tom
Cantrip
@Eco: I’ll look at those posts when I’m not phoneposting.
Another reason for tom is that he didn’t explain why HR/Shadow was town/town but used it to clear Cantrip.
Anyways, it’s all related reads; I need to see Cantrip’s flip to solodify them.
Highroller is
notscum from that eod. It just doesnt feel at any point like w/v. I was starting to think that sometime after vez claim, which is the last time i felt like lynching a wolf was a real possibility. Didnt really think i could swing it to anyone besides those two though.But anyway yeah. Think that felt like v/v wagons and i think i kust buy townhighroller being this stubbornly useless/self-centered
Cantrip felt like scum at eod i saw that statement earlier got miscontstrued. thats not me defending him thats me softening a negative opinion. Its still a negative, just think scum has no reason to be all ******* weird at eod if neither them or their buddies are in any danger. Dont really need to have decided highroller is town for that conclusion since i dont think a cantrip/highroller team looks particularly likely anyway, but wouldnt have come around to that without the conclusion
Rhand scum for the same reasons as yesterday, and especially if highroller town he is the scummiest on that wagon at every point.
Vez officially my scummiest by behavior alone. Can probably accept that lynching him is not correct but im not buying it.
If he is fakeclaiming scum, ruma probably still town anyway
Vaimes scum for having left (what used to be) his scumrange completely. Hes really gotten better.
Lngrr scum for having no agenda to speak of and just no worries at all
Eco scum for being capable of faking it but it just looks like town process. Even when i dont agree, he clearly put a lot of work into rhat rhand post which amounts (to me) to learning rhands playstyle and barely concluding anything i can just see him believing it.
Ruma... idk is usually town if scumvez and town if townvez barring godfather so hes prolly just town
Cantrip/gj are at this point nullish reads that become a "lean scum" tier by gravity/poe
lngrr/vaimes/highroller
Eco/ruma
Cantrip/gj
Rhand/vez
The fact of the matter is I had 5 people shading me yesterday (shadowlancerx, GJ, LnGrrrR, Cheesecake, and Vaimes), and do not believe all 5 were town. Of them, and of course I fluctuated on this, but I got around to believing that shadowlancerx was the least suspicious of them. As I said before, he was at least making an argument. He was taking evidence and drawing conclusions from it. He was at least doing the work. There was also - and this is my fault for not rereading the game more thoroughly sooner, but the past two weeks were just so crazy and chaotic - the fact that it was clear based on events earlier in the day that LnGrrrR and shadowlancerx were unlikely to be mafia together. It just wouldn't make any sense.
So, we have a now-confirmed town adamantly trying to lynch someone who was town (which, granted, I know this because I have my role PM, I don't expect you all to just take my word for it), it was a day with no real strong bandwagons, and the guy whom the now-confirmed town was trying to lynch hadn't made very many posts at the time. Who would I look for? I'd look for people making posts shading me without really committing to a vote, particularly people who, when called later on this and asking why these people thought I was suspicious, presenting flimsy arguments that don't read like someone who had gathered evidence and drawn a conclusion that I was mafia, but instead were trying to get a bandwagon going first, then figure out reasoning second.
Guess who fits that to a T? LnGrrrR and GJ.
I mean, I shaded you, but also started to like you a bit more, and cheesecake a bit less.
But that said:On you and GJ? No, of course not.
The fact that apparently, your reads haven't changed, and your arrogance that all 3 wolves have to be voting you is nagl.
If you think Cantrip is taking a cheapshot at HR for a not thought out plan, why is Highroller so low on the list for you? Unless you think it's possible w/w, but that doesn't meld with the rest of your post?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Gut says i want to lynch in those two today tbh, but we got a lot of time. No dichotomy there but based on my reads and some world building theres usually one scum in the two which helps solving the other a lot.
Actually wanna
vote cantrip aorn.
This is not a "cantrip is scummier than rhand now" but rather a "yeah ok maybe im tunnelled this is the scumflip that would get me out of it if im wrong"
His eod isnt as bad with highroller being town, but some amount of the rest of his play looks worse
Lets call the two of them a new tier thats still more likely town than vez but below the pile of shrugs and sighs that is gj
Would not vote outside of those 4 (vez, rhand, cantrip, gj) today barring something major happening.
You JUST played a wolf game with me, why are you struggling to hard to read me?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Hmm. There is something else I don't like about your former issue with Cantrip. If you tell me what it is, I'll rescind my wolf read of you.
But for now, if you ignore your pr read of me, or if I told you that was incorrect, what would your read of me be?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
1) If I died during the Night, my thoughts and perspective would be available to someone who lived. To that end, I tried to send the message to someone I thought was town (because scum would just cherry pick any information to filter through if I died), and to someone I didn't think would be NK'd (because that'd be useless as well, not to mention muddying the waters if an observer witnessed the interaction).
2) If I didn't die and successfully targeted town who also didn't die, I'd have a chance to provide thoughts that the player would be able to use to hold me accountable for the rest of the game. Plus, I'd be better positioned to see how the recipient used the information I sent them, and if they were scum, they'd have a harder time navigating the pitfalls of "what do I know, what am I supposed to know, what do I know only because Cantrip said it, how do I continue faking my reads in conjunction with what Cantrip told me, etc".
3) One of the first things I did when the game started was to ask Grape if players could use a burner phone AND another action in the same Night. He indicated that using a burner phone prevents a player from using another action (but would NOT confirm or deny if scum could use a burner phone AND NK in the same Night). So verification of use of a burner phone doesn't preclude a player from being the one who performed the NK, but it does prevent them from performing other negative actions such as roleblocking. Every player who gained a coin last night and didn't use a burner phone needs to (eventually, not immediately) account for why they didn't use that coin.
4) I had a juicy secret, and I wanted to share it with someone, eh?
So going into the Night, I knew that HR had a coin. I knew that he had claimed VT, so he didn't have anything else to do with his coin. And seeing as how it's THE featured game mechanic, I figured there was NO WAY that HR hadn't taken advantage of the opportunity to use a phone. But he comes in and says he didn't.
@HR: Not only does NOT using the resources at your disposal not reflect a town mindset, but the only reason I can think of for you to claim it the way you did is because you misread Riku's post the same way I did. I thought he was saying he tracked you, but that's not what he said at all. He said he watched you, which usually means that he was seeing if anyone targeted you, not if you performed any actions. So your knee-jerk response was "oh, of course I didn't do anything with a burner phone b/c VT *nervous laugh*". But there's no reason to claim your actions in response to being watched. If you were town, especially VT with nothing else to do with your coin, I can't imagine that you wouldn't have thoughts similar to my own.
Didn't think you were going to die during the Night and thus didn't need to pass along your game thoughts? Ok, but you're "town", so you don't know whether you might die or not (hey, vigs are a thing, too). Pass them along anyway!
Didn't want to reach out to anyone because you might spill something to scum? a) You're VT, so you're not going to give anything about your role away, and b) what are you really going to say in a missive like that that you're not just going to say in-thread the next Day? Reach out anyway!
Didn't know that using the burner phone wouldn't help eliminate you from the list of players responsible for a negative action? Why weren't you thinking about that possibility? It's a game mechanic; use it!
Didn't have a juicy secret? Well...ok, not all of us can have a juicy secret (and mine's not really all that juicy).
I just can't imagine town not at least trying to use the game mechanic to their advantage. But scum has plenty of reasons to "appear" like they're doing nothing and they're oh so innocent.
Have you had them checked for athlete's foot? Because that tingling isn't because I'm scum.
See above. I'll wait to see how your re-assessment goes.
Yes, I sent the message to Eco. Do you really think if I were scum I'd use a burner phone
I agree that something felt off about Tom's post, but I liked his follow up.
a) You're going to have to do better than that if you want to see my flip. b) Let's say I get dayvigged as soon as I post this; what does my town flip do to your reads? Who's scum then?
@Riku: Please confirm: you're a watcher (that is, you are informed of the players who targeted your target)? And did you successfully target HR and didn't see that anyone targeted him, or were you informed that your ability was unsuccessful?
@Tom: Are you seriously thinking that Vez is fakeclaiming cop? With that elaborate "need two coins" ploy? If scum!Vez was to fakeclaim cop, I don't think he'd think to toss that aspect into the claim. Vez should NOT be on ANYONE's table toDay barring a counterclaim (which, unless the counterclaimer found scum last Night, a counterclaim shouldn't happen toDay, either).
@Highroller, so, you think shadow and Cheese are scum, they both flip town, but instead of thinking, "Damn, maybe I did look scummy there" or even, "Hmm maybe it's reasonable a townie might find me scummy", you instead just continue to plow through with no changes to your scumread other than the obvious flips.
Oh and you avoided this question: Who do you think the third scum is Rhand? Or do you think there is scum on Shadows wagon? if so, who?
If you aren't scum, then why did the wagon on shadow form and get pushed through, instead of scum pushing yours or Riku's lynch through?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Theory question for you:
If we mislynch today, and vezok is still alive, what do you do tomorrow?
Why would Riku watch anyone who isn't a cop claim?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
From the wolf perspective, I see him being aggro towards other players, but I don't really see an attempt to get other people to join him. Maybe he is just bad as a wolf, but I would have thought he would at least make an attempt, considering how much of a debate veteran he is.
@Vezok: Ignore me, I don't know how the **** I missed the peek in the same post I quoted. I don't really have an excuse, but why wouldn't you investigate Rhand?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Come on man what do you think you've done worth moving you out of null?
Tom scum for voting vez to state his opinion for the record, then moving on to someone that should actually be a lynch candidate today.
I guess.
Yes obviously dont lynch vez today in the event hes real scum have to deal with him. I still think hes scum though.
Hottake: Vezok/Riku wolves together, trying to ride out two days to win, and the last wolf is a deep wolf.
@tom: Your last post hit a weird cord with me. You normally don't give a **** about what people think about you, why do you sound like you are trying to justify your cantrip vote so hard?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I am not lurking and actually care about hunting this game. Playstation, I just shamelessly barned people, read what people were thinking, and then said things I new people I was pocketing would agree with. Played LW as a fiddle, until Kpaca just turned him against me.
(I know he isn't here to ask this but OoG, wtf was that part about forgetting who I actually was)
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I would go Vezok/Riku right now, with my spicy theory (because if this were MU< someone would have said it now).
If Highroller is town, last one is one of Lngrrr/Rhand.
I don't think Rhand is ever a wolf if vezok/Riku is.
If I throw that theory out, hard to say. I am leaning towards the wagons being v/v, so that probably means all three aren't on shadow. At least one would be on Highroller. If Highroller is a wolf, all three would probably be on Shadow.
Boy, it would have been nice if Vezok peeked Highroller. Unless he had a particular thought about Highroller.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Alternative question worded differently, how many do you think were on Vezok pre claim?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I think Highroller is the best play today, at least now. When I reread Cantrip, I still thought he was towny enough, even if EOC and today is a bit weird.
Probably will reread some more to clarify and solidify views.
@Cantrip, I find it weird you shaded me for my vote analysis. Did you think my comment was towny or scummy? Gut reaction.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
@Tom: Can you explain why EoD didn't feel like w/v? And also more words behind your Rhand read.
@Highroller: Thank you. Given Shadow being town, do you particularly agree or disagree with any reads that he had? Do you have any town reads (whether related to interactions with you or not)? Do you think both LnGrrR and GJ can both be Mafia?
@Rhand: I didn't think it was actually that obvious, but yes Cantrip sent me a message last Night. I was actually prepared to come in to toDay with Cantrip pretty much at the bottom of my list, but then he sent me a 2,000 word epic detailing his last will and testament. Now, I think his fear of being killed was overly melodramatic and we have some pretty different reads, but I owe him at least the effort of parsing it.
The disrespect!
Honestly, I thought HR was super towny in Banned Mafia while rereading, and I don't get that here. There are some similarities, but overall, he feels far less towny and weirdly refuses to scumhunt anyone that isn't on him. HR hasn't made one attack on anyone that hasn't suspected him, AFAICT.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I'm going to ask you to delve into some more detail here: why would you look at (curretly blue-checked) Riku? Why would HR scum clear GJ? Would you really only get one read for each side of the flip? And why does he feel less towny here, and what did he do in Banned that was so towny?
If HR is newbscum, maybe to fake scumhunt he is only attacking those suspecting him. He has pointedly avoided answering my question about scum on Shadows wagon multiple times, as well as at this point nearly refusing to ask questions of others not suspecting him.
Given that, I assume that if he flips scum, his single mindedness likely makes GJ town
As noted before, if HR is town, then I look at Riku for the way wagons formed D1. If HR is town, and Riku is town, why would scum form a Shadow wagon?
There's probably more reads that would be generated, but two of the people who suspected HR are dead, and I am town so... *shrug* Plus not sure what I would think at that point since more stuff would play out, this is just right now.
Banned he didn't seem afraid to go after anyone. He was strodent, but didn't read as defensively. HR has only gone on the offensive on people who suspect him. He also refuses to use context. He reminds me of the man who considers pushing a woman into a train and pushing a woman away from a train to be the same thing, because in both cases the woman is getting pushed, right?
@Eco, guessing you think rhand/Tom are unaligned. Are there any other unaligned pairs?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I wouldn't expect *everyone* to think of point #3 (and obviously, given the dearth of D1 discussion, either very few people thought of it and just kept it to themselves, or I'm in an extreme minority on that point, but...that would seem odd to me knowing that it's popular to ). And I thought I was a fair middling chance of being the NK, less likely when Shadow flipped town, of course. But I didn't know, so I sent my thoughts elsewhere. Like I said...don't care if you're queued up to be the next Day's lynch with no chance of being the NK. You have a coin and nothing else to do with it? Why aren't you using the game resources as best you can, eh?
I...don't see this as an argument against HR being scum? I can think of [i]many[/i] players who don't attempt to get other people to join them. Seppel, kpaca, even Tom to an extent come to mind immediately. I could very easily see HR, not having played scum in many years (if ever?) deciding he's just going to adopt the prickly pear persona for the whole game and count on people going "oh that's just how HR is".
I think [i]if[/i] we were to tinfoil down this avenue, it would go something like 1) Vezok was pushed to claim; 2) he fakeclaimed cop; 3) the scumteam took the lack of counterclaim as evidence that there's no cop in the setup; 4) they decided to gamble even [i]further[/i] and have scum!Vez clear scum!Riku. That just seems...like a lot of risk for not a lot of reward. It's possible that they looked at the town lineup against them and threw their hands in the air shouting YOLO and went for it, but...it feels like the kind of gambit that would be very likely to catch up with them before they won.
By "shaded", do you mean where I said "Why are you so certain of this?" in [url=https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/804103-secret-agent-mafia-day-2-from-russia-with-love?comment=1000]#1000[/url]? If so, that wasn't shade; it was curiosity. I thought it sounded confident, but didn't immediately see why you were confident, so I asked.
Do you feel my observations in-message on Tom's 330 and 411 fit in with what you know of his scum meta?
I think if you reread my message, you'll note that there's very little "fear" of being killed. The melodramatic feel you're getting is likely a result of me being in a secret agent mindset when I wrote it. But if Shadow were here, he'd be the first to warn you that me putting in the work and sending you that message should [i]not[/i] be AI. My first rule as scum is "don't be lazy", so don't let the [i]length[/i] be a factor. Judge me on my reads and decisions.
Pre-Shadow flipping town? I thought I was a fair-to-slightly higher chance based on my playing ability, with a slight increased possibility due to what I mentioned in the message, compounded by who was on the scum team. Post-EoD1, I figured my chances went way down, but, again, reread the first paragraph of my message and tell me again that I "expected" to get killed. Half of what I wrote was discussing how I planned to handle D2 if I lived, so, no, I wasn't expecting to be the NK. I figured my chances of being vigged might be a little higher, but...
I'm not entirely sure that I understand where you're getting that feeling, given that several of my notes say things like "I didn't see the awkwardness the first time I read this" and "I didn't get...the first time through", but if you got that feeling, it's probably because my primary suspect flipped town. I almost always find it beneficial to reread a game post-flip with as blank a slate as possible. To do so completely is impossible, of course, but there are things I definitely see differently on subsequent rereads using that approach. When I lead the charge on a town lynch, I obviously need to reassess more than usual.
I didn't start out pressed for time. I started my reread as soon as D1 ended and worked on it a little at a time. I planned on doing the bulk of the work the night before the deadline, but had a bad headache, so I was doing as much as I could the next morning. Didn't feel like it would be productive to skip a bunch in the middle and hope that I jumped to a part of the Day that provided insight. I am still working on finishing it, just now with a few more question marks resolved.
Are you talking about the one I sent in the message/posted at the start of my first post toDay? If so, then versus the list I posted in [url=https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/804103-secret-agent-mafia-day-2-from-russia-with-love?comment=719]719[/url]:
• Tom moved up because of what I saw in 330/441, despite some frustrations I had with him during EoD. It's possible if I had finished my reread he wouldn't have been as high, but I stand by what I communicated to you.
• You and Riku switching places...isn't necessarily significant?
• Vez moved up for his claim.
• GJ moved up for the observations I made in the message.
• HR and Cheesecake fell to the bottom in part because I [i]wasn't[/i] getting strong town vibes from any of their posts, as well as PoE.
And I can tell you [i]to the half hour[/i] when I made that list: it was in the 30-60 minutes pre-deadline when I realized I had to stop rereading and write the message. Ideally, I'd have finished my reread and notes, created summaries for each player, reviewed those to make my updated list, used that to decide whom to send the message to, reviewed my notes to remove any [redacted] aspects that might point scum to PR's if the person I was sending my message to was actually scum, then updated the reads list with tl;dr's rather than just a blank list. As it was, I made sure the important steps were taken and figured the rest could be discussed toDay.
BTW, Grape confirmed with me that while *you* can't quote my message, *I* can copy-pasta my own message here verbatim, if desired, since it's just my own thoughts. So if you think it'd be a good idea, I am perfectly happy and willing to dump that whole thing into the thread (tucked into a spoiler for the faint of heart), with my secret (and one note about you) redacted (or not, if you think that needs to be made known, too). The primary intent of the communication was to ensure that my thoughts survived if I did not.
List tags are malformed.
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cantripmancer: ... This is embarrassing.
I didn't use a burner phone because there's nothing I would have accomplished with one. My thoughts on the game were well-established on Day 1. What was I going to say, exactly? "I'm town, not mafia?" If I were dead, everyone would be notified of that.
I'm not saying all three. I'm saying that at least one, possibly two, and you two are by far the two most suspicious people so far.
Also, I'M arrogant? I'M the one who's arrogant? Says the guy who thought my tone made me suspicious when I'd only posted 12 sentences? Says the guy who thought I was suspicious because I didn't scumhunt enough in 12 sentences? Who do you think you are, Professor Xavier? Because clearly you must be clairvoyant if you can spot a mafia from that.
Yes, because you two were the most suspicious ones. Moreover, neither of you posted any logical reason for thinking I was suspicious. Instead you made posts that smacked of bandwagoning, jumping from one reason or another to justify suspicion.
The fact that two of the five people flipped town is just more reason to be suspicious of you two. It's clear to me at least one mafia among the five people shading me. Cheesecake's death just helped to rule him out, making it even more likely that it's you.
I haven't avoided this question, I've said yes to it. I do believe that there was a mafia on the shadowlancerx wagon. I don't know who it was.
Now here's a question for you: do you believe that of the five people who tried to promote suspicion on me, none of them are mafia?
Nice WIFOM there.
I have no idea why shadowlancerx got lynched instead of me.
If you don't think I'm mafia, then why not vote LnGrrrR?
The only other read I remember off the top of my head is LnGrrrR. Obviously I think LnGrrrR is mafia.
No one that pushes into, "I strongly doubt this guy's mafia" yet, no.
Obviously they CAN both be mafia. I don't know if they ARE both mafia, but they both are the most suspicious people by a wide margin.
...this is...eh...meh... Ok, so what do you (specifically you, HR) do as town during Night? I will freely admit that there are times when I either don't have time to reread, or I'm outed as confirmed town and highly likely to be the NK and choose not to reread, but I always want to reread and do so if the opportunity arises. When I read the burner phone rules the first time I thought they opened chats, but once Grape set me straight that it was just a one-time message, the first application I thought of was to convey last will and testament thoughts in case of death.
I'm seriously baffled by any player who starts a game and doesn't at least think about how the game mechanics can be used to advantage. Like, if I were scum, I'd be ALLLLL over the opportunity to try to pocket someone and sow wifom/dischord/craziness (and yeah, I sent a message to someone I say I'm townreading, so yeah, I could totally be openly wolfing, but I'm not, but you can't trust that, so it's wifom, so go find something else to attack me for). In fact, here's a fun tidbit that you can confirm by asking Grape: burner phones are anonymous unless otherwise specified! I didn't even think to ask Grape about that until after I had sent my message, but if I were scum, I'm pretty sure I would have asked that question a lot sooner. I don't think divulging this is going to be detrimental to town because now we're on our guard (and I think an anonymous message would be met with serious scrutiny anyway), but it's just one example of the kinds of things a game mechanic leads to. To say "I didn't even consider utilizing a resource/mechanic that's in the game" feels...ludicrous to me. Even if you see yourself as a "purist" and commit to relying only on reads/never using mechanics (lolwut?), as part of the game, you've got to be thinking about how the other team might be trying to use/subvert the mechanics!
It's the weekend, so while I'll probably be on later tonight, quasi-V/LA until Monday.
Shadow (7): Eco, Cantrip, ruma, vez, highroller, vaimes, tom
Highroller (4): Shadow, rhand, cheese, lngrr
Vez (1): GJ
GJ town, but if scum, tom is partner. Kinda really think tom is town though?
Highroller/Rhand/Eco? Still meh between Cantrip/Eco.
Vote Highroller
>"Can the mafia communicate normally or only through burner phones?"
>"Why would I use a burner phone?"
Kiiinda reads like we're supposed to believe he didn't use the phone, therefore he isn't mafia? That one's thin.
Riku is 100% not a Godfather, wouldn't have fakeclaimed a PR.
N0 is a thing on MU, and impo, it's a really stupid thing. It is almost assurdely not in this game, and I think he was just being cheeky. Relatively NAI comment.
And yet, I moved on you. You are either purposefully or conveniently forgetting that the other issue was that everyone who was active was coming off town. That's why I also threw Az/Vez up as a suggestion.
Arrogant would be me lambasting a person and thinking I made a correct read post 200 and never questioning it.
I mean, I think Rhand is more likely than LnGrrr. You also understand how I came to that conclusion was not just on you being or not being town. It was on the theory that Vezok/Riku are w/w. Kind of a key point there.
Bold.
You are coming off ridiculously flaky, you know that, right?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching: