I would really appreciate it if you went into a lot more detail about all of this, but none of it makes sense to me.
@Gemma: I guess I owe you this. You've kind of put more work into this game than is reasonable, and (even though I still think it's obvious that I'm town) I'm gonna try and show you where I'm at/figure out where I'm at.
Quote from Gemma »
Talk about how Nancy/sheep can be a team. Talk about why Nancy is mafia in a way that actually engages with the reasoning put forth about her rather than just writing it off or calling something it isn't.
I hadn't really considered Nancy and sheep as unaligned; I get that they have a history and sheep despite calling Nancy easy to read has kinda bumbled around that read but...I wouldn't call that or anything they've done really hard clearing.
That being said, Nancy is a pet read, and I basically think I've been stuck in this place where it's a read against the grain that reminded me of a similar situation in another game. I...am probably just wrong. You're telling me I'm wrong, everyone else is telling me I'm wrong, it's not the same situation, I'm probably looking for reasons to justify it instead of looking for an honest read there. I don't think I can completely lock her in as town, but I'll try and look at the game through a broader lens.
Quote from Gemma »
Talk about your Lissa town read.
So Lissa is never w/w with Nancy, but in addition to that, she's basically played with no guile. Like, she takes her time getting a feel for the game, then comes in periodically to offer thoughts without like, trying to push a narrative. I kind of think if she is scum, she would be playing in such a way that she'd get credit for any of stances she's taken.
Quote from Gemma »
Talk about why you've barely been pushing Rhand slot all game despite having a strong scum read. Talk about why you're rolling your eyes at the idea that anyone could think you're together.
I pushed Rhand pretty hard yesterday, I don't know what you're smoking. Today he's not been present, and Hunger coming into the game has been like...okay posting and I'm somewhat paranoid that he is town and he and I are being setup to be chain lynched.
Quote from Gemma »
Talk about why you're content with a sheep lynch when you have what looks like a lock scum read on Hunger.
To add onto above, I think if one of Hunger/sheep is town, Hunger is more likely to show it. But yeah, a lot of it is paranoia, and it's probably just me being dumb.
Quote from Gemma »
Talk about why Nancy town would mean you would have to reconsider Dels.
Purely a shrinking PoE.
~~~~~
So where am I at?
I'm town.
KJ is town.
Gemma is town.
I think Vaimes is town.
Nancy is...probably just town.
Lissa, Hunger, sheep, Dels
Ugh. I feel like everyone there has some reason or another to be town.
I'm rereading those 4. Probably be back in the morning; I've got a sick wife and I've been fighting off the stirrings of a cold myself.
Thanks a bunch, shadow, I really appreciate it.
I think this progression on Dels is actually really town of you.
Like, I mentioned early in the dayphase that one of the people pushing on Dels was probably mafia, and it's because scum tend to be shy of scumreading people who are playing the way Dels has been playing. He's even more blatantly town at this point in the game and thread temperature has moved that way (I have actually locked him as town after his posts while I was asleep, and was 99% sure he was town before that) so for you to move from "Dels town, Gemma weren't you saying he was super town EoD1?" to "Dels in PoE" strikes me as a very real progression from you and not something you would be interested in pursuing as a wolf here.
Your Nancy read also feels super real, I can sympathize with the way you're struggling with her and I think the way you've talked about her in relation to your other reads feels pretty genuine and I can see how you're trying work things through there.
Fmpov, both Lissa and sheep are in my PoE, I have them both as unaligned with Nancy, I have a weak townread on Nancy's ISO in a vacuum, so I have more reasons to think she's town than not. I would love to feel better about her, and I am admittedly somewhat overcompensating because if she's town then clearing her is a winning move, but I don't have huge reasons to doubt it other than niggles like "ugh my scumread on sheep isn't that strong, if he's town then maybe it's her?" "I wish she had actually scumhunted" "why aren't scum going after her more / trying to open up that lynch again" (you're the only one who fits with that) and I don't think entertaining those thoughts is super helpful at this stage. I do feel reasonably confident that I can lock her as town and remove those little doubts in the next 2 days before deadline if she is town, provided she actually does things. In other words, I don't think you're completely insane for thinking that Nancy could be mafia, I just wanted/want to see you engage with that as a real thing and not say "well I don't care much about the stuff you're reading into because it could just be playstyle / whatever and I'm just going to scumread her".
I like your Lissa read. I don't really think she's town but I can vibe with that take on her.
It's weird that you don't think Lissa's push on sheep feels forced, because it does to me, and I think if she's scum with Hunger here then it's her best play, especially if shadow is town and she doesn't want to push on him. If you track her shadow scumread, she came around pretty strongly to him being mafia here, yet hasn't actually pushed on him and is now going for sheep. I don't think that makes much sense in a very similar way to how shadow pushing off Hunger onto sheep doesn't make sense, and I haven't seen her thinking about "huh why is shadow on this wagon with me" or such at all. I think it's probably a worse look for her than it is for shadow, though.
well wait a minute, if shadow is town, then why would lissa not want to push him? that's the bit where you lose me. in this scenario, lissa is scum with hunger and sheep, and she's set herself up to vote shadow, and we also have shadow in our PoE, so shouldn't pushing shadow be a good move for her? if anything, this could look like lissa is with shadow and is pushing a town!sheep? or am i being dumb?
i need to look at lissa's posts again in the morning with a clear head probably. i am way too susceptible to recency bias right now. but lissa did actually get me to look at the sheep/nancy stuff again and be like "well wait, why do I think sheep's progression on nancy is so good". looking at it again now, i guess she's really only focused on that today in regards to sheep. so maybe you're right that it's not a great push. but you seem more concerned about her overall direction with it? i also just like that lissa is finally starting to see the game in the same way i do. that's... kind of what i expected from lissa from the start. we haven't played a non-mash game together, but i've always gotten the impression we feel very similarly about the game of mafia in general. but i admit she could just be getting there because, well, there aren't any options, and i kind of outlined for her exactly what i expected to see if she's town, and she's just... giving it to me. her post just now about not really caring to push any of shadow/sheep/hunger and her "well, scum are boxed in" also aligns with my own PoV right now, so i guess that's what overall makes me feel better. granted she's way less... manic about it than i am. but this is why i said i need you to slap me if i'm being too naive.
There are more things that are starting to align for me with shadow v/Hunger w worlds - Lissa retracting her Rhand/shadow antialign (which I think was also a weird read to make given she was townreading Rhand), Hunger's read on Lissa, Lissa and Hunger's treatment of shadow. I should make a separate post about this, but I'm kind of feeling a Hunger/Lissa team rn. You've moved away from that, so I'd appreciate your thoughts on whether I'm insane or selling myself a narrative or such.
hmm. was she still townreading rhand at the time she investigated the rhand/shadow w/w possibility? will check tomorrow. i do agree that the lissa/sheep/rhand world has made perfect sense for a long time. i was reacting purely to today's new posts to change it around, and maybe i shouldn't have. if lissa is town then its sheep/shadow/hungerhand? we know why hunger/shadow can be w/w. sheep/shadow can be w/w. sheep/rhand can definitely still be w/w, that "null" read on rhand from sheep day 1 leading to an easy townread to a "won't lynch rhand", plus hunger's lack of talking about sheep today is...
@Dels if shadow is a PR then Lissa may be a little shy of pushing on him, was what I was thinking there. You're right though that it's wonky, especially with Hunger pushing on shadow the way that he is. I don't think there is any world where Lissa is scum and sheep is town unless she's with both Hunger and shadow, so keep that in mind.
I'll try to make a proper post about this, rather than just saying things off the top of my head.
I think this progression on Dels is actually really town of you.
Like, I mentioned early in the dayphase that one of the people pushing on Dels was probably mafia, and it's because scum tend to be shy of scumreading people who are playing the way Dels has been playing. He's even more blatantly town at this point in the game and thread temperature has moved that way (I have actually locked him as town after his posts while I was asleep, and was 99% sure he was town before that) so for you to move from "Dels town, Gemma weren't you saying he was super town EoD1?" to "Dels in PoE" strikes me as a very real progression from you and not something you would be interested in pursuing as a wolf here.
Your Nancy read also feels super real, I can sympathize with the way you're struggling with her and I think the way you've talked about her in relation to your other reads feels pretty genuine and I can see how you're trying work things through there.
Fmpov, both Lissa and sheep are in my PoE, I have them both as unaligned with Nancy, I have a weak townread on Nancy's ISO in a vacuum, so I have more reasons to think she's town than not. I would love to feel better about her, and I am admittedly somewhat overcompensating because if she's town then clearing her is a winning move, but I don't have huge reasons to doubt it other than niggles like "ugh my scumread on sheep isn't that strong, if he's town then maybe it's her?" "I wish she had actually scumhunted" "why aren't scum going after her more / trying to open up that lynch again" (you're the only one who fits with that) and I don't think entertaining those thoughts is super helpful at this stage. I do feel reasonably confident that I can lock her as town and remove those little doubts in the next 2 days before deadline if she is town, provided she actually does things. In other words, I don't think you're completely insane for thinking that Nancy could be mafia, I just wanted/want to see you engage with that as a real thing and not say "well I don't care much about the stuff you're reading into because it could just be playstyle / whatever and I'm just going to scumread her".
I like your Lissa read. I don't really think she's town but I can vibe with that take on her.
Okay, we've apparently swapped places because this time I didn't think shadow's response was great.
I have a few questions for you (and shadow) here.
1) "one of the people pushing on Dels was probably mafia, and it's because scum tend to be shy of scumreading people who are playing the way Dels has been playing." Is there a typo here? If scum are shy about doing it, then why are the people doing it likely to contain a mafia? (I pondered about this earlier in the day which is what led to me realizing the PoE scenario - because I was thinking "why are scum pushing me" and then i realized, well, they had to, they weren't gonna get a mislynch on half the game.)
2) isn't shadow putting me as possible scum here exactly what he'd do if he was scum? going back to the PoE thing, if shadow is dropping the nancy case, then his PoE has to become lissa/hunger/sheep/dels as i outlined. if he's scum, then we've pushed him on the nancy thing enough for him to realize that continuing to push it (especially with sheep) probably isn't smart, so then... well, as he said, I have to drop by PoE. i can see why it's towny because it's sort of... against the grain and it's the opposite of the progression an agenda-y scum would have. but also i think you're overcrediting what is a sort of standard move.
and 3) @shadow: can you explain the "everyone in there has reasons to be town" which you said about the PoE of dels/lissa/hunger/sheep? because it doesn't feel like you've really felt sheep has any reasons to be town, and i don't see any in this post? all you said about hunger is "Hunger coming into the game has been like...okay posting and I'm somewhat paranoid that he is town and he and I are being setup to be chain lynched." and i don't feel like you've given any reasons for hunger to be town besides that? so it feels like a fake thought to me.
i'm also just noting that both shadow and hunger said the "if we're v/v, then scum can mislynch us both for the win" which is just... so weird for me when hunger is pushing shadow and shadow was pushing rhand and now isn't. am i wrong to be pinged by this? just confbiasing the shadow/hunger w/w theory?
i will say that i can see how shadow's progression on nancy also fits as a townie being openminded and reconsidering after reading our cases. the lissa read... i'm sort of split on. i know shadow said at the bottom of his post that he wants to reread the 4 PoE people, but he seems to only have towny things to say about lissa, was townreading me, and is now less sure about hunger... so it feels like it's still an incomplete world view. maybe it is, because he admitted he has to flesh it out. are you feeling any of that as well? because you seemed to have the opposite reaction to the post as me.
@Lissa can you clarify where your vote is likely to go? it's actually... still on me, isn't it? Based on your posts, is it correct to say your preferred lynch is shadow? or is it sheep? think it would help us a lot to know this.
1) You've misunderstood, the reasoning looks like this: generically speaking, I think mafia are more likely to only push on "obvious town" if town are also doing it, so for there to be mafia on you means that it's probably a push led by town, and mafia are in the minority. This isn't strong reasoning or anything and is more of a minor note than anything I'm using to orient my reads around, and scum could also very easily be interested in drowning out your voice with scumreads on you, but that's the gist of that read. This is in a similar vein to sheep's townread on you, and how that would spew you town if sheep were to flip mafia.
2) I may be giving that too much credit, yeah. But he has to know that you're never getting lynched and any push on you would be insane at this point if he's mafia, so entertaining that without angling on you / shading you seems, eh, okay? I think the weird part of it is that he has pulled you down instead of Vaimes. That's... interesting.
I also think it's weird that they're both saying the same thing about being chain lynched, but at the same time I think it's somewhat natural for town to be a bit paranoid of that? It's just a matter of reading into how they're reading into that and what they're doing about it.
@Lissa can you clarify where your vote is likely to go? it's actually... still on me, isn't it? Based on your posts, is it correct to say your preferred lynch is shadow? or is it sheep? think it would help us a lot to know this.
It's still on you yeah.
I don't have any preference within the two right now which is mostly why I haven't moved I suppose. If you put a gun to my head I'd go shadow because a world without him is a little weirder than one without sheep but... pretty equally want to do either.
thanks gemma. i forget all about PR stuff. probably best... not to expand on it then...? but i get it.
re. points 1 i see what you mean now. re. pt 2, hard for me to be unbiased here, but i get it. shadow's post doesn't feel particularly agenda-y, especially the reads on me and lissa. and if anything, dropping the nancy thing is the opposite of agenda.
i will say that shadow's post about LW to hunger makes perfect sense. that's... exactly how i was envisioning shadow's progression on LW day 1. it felt like shadow was genuinely annoyed by LW despite townreading them for most of the day. and the justification for the vote on LW makes sense within that.
btw @hunger you should know that i have a team that says they have played 30+ games with vaimes and they've never read him wrong a single time and they say he is town here with pretty high certainty. i know that's not what you wanna hear but trust me, at this point in my mafia career, i've learned to just trust this stuff.
That's well and good for you, but I don't have that benefit and like, I have to go by the info I have right now. I have no interest in a Vaimes lynch toDay though to be clear. I want shadow lynched toDay. Pretty sure shadow/I need to be sorted because if we are both town we are going to be chain lynched into a flawless scum victory. If shadow flips town I'm pretty sure there is at least one deep scum in the "consensus" town PoE.
I don't really buy that he has no interest in lynching a scumread, and I don't buy the thought about a flawless scum victory. Feels like fear mongering and excuse to shove on shadow.
It's not that I don't want to lynch a scumread, but like, I'm halfway through the game and that read is almost solely based on his approach to Last. It's not nearly as fleshed out as my shadow read.
Umm, what don't you buy about the flawless victory? What do you think happens in the world where shadow and I are both town. Also, shadow has mentioned this same thing multiple times, why is it OK when he says the same thing?
It's absolutely not an excuse to shove shadow. It's like the main reason for me to NOT push shadow. Like 80% of the reason I am pushing shadow is the way his wagon stalled out, who was on his wagon, the timing of the wagons, and who the counter wagons were. Why does everyone continue to ignore that? The only person that's even had a comment on it at all was...shadow. And dels saying he wouldn't touch it I guess.
@Dels
I think I didn't explain my point well in that first point? Yes, pairs can be good and it's a natural part of PoE. I'm doing it too. Just the number of times I have felt like I've read "unless I'm very wrong" is like 100, which rubs me the wrong way, because duh.
The second point is in direct reply to Vaimes saying he doesn't even want to try for the rest of the Day essentially. It's less about fear and more about the fact that he is my second highest scum read right now, he has his vote parked on me, and he doesn't want to move it or do anything. Oh...that reminds me, check out this tasty quote of him contradicting this exact mindset in regards to LW:
842 - “Don't really find the mindset of "vote stays until further notice" to be town-indicative.”
Isn't that exactly what he is doing here? But actually worse since he is refusing to interact with me? Last at least continued interacting despite being stubborn with his vote. Vaimes first reply to me trying to ask him a question was "Read the thread."
This is just painting imo. I don't think this is a real read and I don't think he's remotely interested in understanding Vaimes.
It most certainly is a real read. It's just not super fleshed out. I started spamming the thread with my notes yesterDay because I realized I am not going to have the time to get fully into this game before deadline and like, I shouldn't probably even be taking the time I have been so far since I'm doing it all at work, but I wanted to have something in the thread before deadline.
Sorry that I don't have anything airtight I guess? I just know Vaimes does not actually think Last's behavior in this game couldn't be from town Last.
Also, what's the scum game here? In your scum!Hunger world, what's the agenda for shading Vaimes?
Also of note on this point is part of what I was asking Vaimes about in the above quoted 585 post. Vaimes also ignored the fact that the shadow wagon stalled out which is giving me Vaimes/shadow s/s vibes. The fact that their apparent LW reads (which I will get to more) and side-stepping? this stalled shadow wagon thing has me thinking they are mind-melding, but they don't seem to be intentionally doing it, pointing it out, or even noticing it?
All of his reasoning in that post feels forced / fake but this is just never a real w/w read imo. Two people mindmelding is a reason for them to both be town, for one of them to be pocketed, or for them to be unaligned, not for them to be w/w. I don't know Hunger well enough to determine whether or not these can be real town thoughts from him, but the whole thing feels played up and I don't feel any real pulse of organic thought from him.
Self meta alert
I often get run up in the early game because I am awful at tonal reads and as town I struggle to get into the game until there are flips/claims/wagons for me to look at. I also tend to overthink my posts and be waaayyyy more paranoid as town which comes off as hedgy/waffle-y and gets me in trouble. I play much more loose and non-confrontational as scum. As scum I never ever post these thoughts about Vaimes because I know they are incomplete and I'll probably get some blowback for it.
My point on the mindmeld is that they seem to have shared the same read/thoughts of Last, but they never talk to each other about it or acknowledge it? As town why wouldn't they be like, "hey this guy has a similar read as me, he's probably town too, lets work on this together" So instead it has me feeling like they have the same narrative because scum chat, but they are keeping distance from each other.
And as I read that back it sounds pretty tinfoily now...but still, something doesn't sit right with me the way they both approached Last.
@Hunger: couple of quick things, the only pairs I pointed out early game were probable unaligned pairs.
Also, I cannot overstate just how much I dislike Last whisper's play style. So when I talk to my team and they said "hey, have you considered that last could potentially be scum" I got really excited, because a lynch on last would feel viscerally right, and I know that's terrible, but that's how I felt.
1. Maybe, yeah. I haven't ISO'd you yet because time. But again, this was essentially my note dump on you so it's also sort of a reminder to check on that. I know I was lynched in a game that I was scum in part for making unaligned pairs in the early game and at the time I was like, "well *****, that's actually true."
2. Blegh. I so get what you mean and it really makes me want to believe you.
hmm. was she still townreading rhand at the time she investigated the rhand/shadow w/w possibility? will check tomorrow. i do agree that the lissa/sheep/rhand world has made perfect sense for a long time. i was reacting purely to today's new posts to change it around, and maybe i shouldn't have. if lissa is town then its sheep/shadow/hungerhand? we know why hunger/shadow can be w/w. sheep/shadow can be w/w. sheep/rhand can definitely still be w/w, that "null" read on rhand from sheep day 1 leading to an easy townread to a "won't lynch rhand", plus hunger's lack of talking about sheep today is...
How is me/shadow w/w an actual viable world in your mind?
Also, I haven't mentioned Nancy. Or really said anything of substance about anyone other than shadow and Vaimes
I want to kill Hunger, shoot sheep if he flips scum, leave you guys with shadow/Lissa tomorrow.
after sleeping on it, this is kind of where i'm at, but swap sheep and hunger, equalize lissa and shadow maybe, and i guess probably swap nancy and vaimes but that's whatever.
i was definitely being too manic yesterday. sorry, it happens. i've said this before but i fully admit that nothing lissa posted yesterday is really stuff she'd be incapable of posting as a wolf. if i'm saying don't give shadow credit for arriving at the "correct" PoE, i shouldn't feel differently about lissa. i'm being naive if i say she's town for it. all the things i had issues with in the past are still things. i just feel bad for suspecting her. but also i still feel like what i said at the start of this day which is that if lissa is town, i really should be able to get there. (and i mean actually get there, not just get there out of recency bias / feeling bad / naivete) but i was also influenced by shadow's posts which were just sort of... lacking. sleeping on it, i feel like you know him better than i do and it's possible i'm just expecting stuff that he wouldn't give anyway. he's clearly not like us, isn't living in the thread, isn't gonna give tons of analysis behind every read. and he really does seem to just be doing his own thing, doesn't feel like an agenda. my gut was telling me to just stick with my initial read and assume shadow is the townie until yesterday, and i was probably too quick to change that. but i think lissa and shadow are the two people we need to keep monitoring/evaluating, so i agree with you. i'm fairly split on them.
but also, man, i can't do what you do, the way you were able to attack those hunger quotes like that, haha. i'm like, the opposite, i read hungers posts and my mind is like "well look, he's trying, he's posting stuff, maybe he's just town after all!" but i know that he probably isn't, unless shadow and lissa are BOTH scum. which is possible, but... doesn't seem as likely as hunger being scum. i agree with the points you called out. it does seem a bit like shading vaimes without trying to actually understand, and the "but i don't want to lynch vaimes today" mindset is a bit odd. i guess it makes sense if his focus is 100% on shadow, because as a replacement that is all he can do...? but this is why i'd rather lynch sheep, because i can at least imagine a world where hunger is town? i know that's still just me being overly reactionary, and that none of this stuff is worth a townread or anything, it's still just... something though, isn't it? feels kind of silly to lynch hunger here over sheep. i'm not opposed to it, i probably wouldn't oppose any lynch in the PoE, but am i being lazy for thinking sheep is the safer option?
will take your advice and spend some time away from the game, will check back in tonight. i'd love to take a day off but, like, we're near EoD.
- like gemma said, a "if shadow and i are v/v then town will lose" thought isn't necessarily scummy on its own, but its what you do with it. you seem pretty intent on lynching shadow here, so in the world where you are v/v, what is your plan?
- sorry about the wagon stuff. it's just really not my area, mostly because i'm like... well what if the voters on shadow were townies and they were just wrong and it didn't go further because the rest of the town (rightfully) didn't agree? or if there were scum on shadow and the town didn't follow? i will try to take a look at it and your other shadow posts so i can engage with you on this.
- my issue with your vaimes points is mostly just that i... i guess i just don't see them as valid. your issue with both shadow and vaimes is that they had an issue with last, and i just... don't believe it's impossible for either of them to?
- if you're scum, you don't have an "agenda" for shading vaimes, you are just trying to find a read you can have so that it looks like you have unique thoughts beyond just pushing shadow. the mindmeld thing is... i dunno, i'm glad you can admit it sounds tinfoily, because to me it's just... like gemma said, a mindmeld isn't w/w. your case is that they had the same thought but they didn't ever go "hey we're mindmelding :D" and that's what makes it w/w but... like, isn't it possible that if two people had the same thought, it's because it was a valid thought? like, vaimes and shadow both know Last, right? So if both of them had an issue with Last, either they are both scum for it, or at least one is town and therefore it proves that townies absolutely could suspect Last here. What's scummy about it is it sort of feels like you jumped to the conclusion so that you could have something to post that wasn't about shadow.
- the w/w connection between you and shadow has been discussed in a few other posts. the gist of it is that rhand's suspicion on shadow lacked the same progression/depth his suspicion on gemma had, and that before EoD came around, rhand said the shadow wagon wasn't gaining traction, so he moved off it, and shadow, despite pushing rhand a lot of the day, moved over to roz, and only moved back to rhand when rhand was in no danger. today, shadow voted rhand but didn't really push it (after EoD, it looked quite possible that rhand would be lynched today, so it's a fine time to get on that wagon), and now shadow is... on sheep instead, for reasons i still don't fully understand. you are pushing shadow pretty heavily, which is the interesting part, but i think if you're w/w with shadow, just replacing in, knowing people are thinking this, you'd probably not want to just completely avoid shadow, because it'd just play in to those theories. I don't think any of this means you have to be w/w with shadow - but i don't think it's ruled out, and that's what most of the discussion there has been about.
okay hunger, i'm looking at your posts regarding shadow and the VCA.
Looking at the votes I find it odd that shadow was basically at 3 all Day and I know for a fact 3 of the main 4 people on him were town in Rhand/Last/Wheat. Don't really have any impressions of sheep yet, but he was the 4th. What I find odd is that he hovered around being the top wagon for most of the Day, but it just never got any traction. He was even the top wagon an hour before deadline and then both Rhand and Roz got run up fairly quickly instead. Definitely want to look into context on that.
so, my bad, i didn't remember when i made my last post that last and wheat were 2 of the people on the shadow wagon, so there are definitely two confirmed townies on it. but here's the issue. sheep being the 4th? if you are town, sheep is almost certain to be scum. even if you're not town, that's still true. and if you're not town, then that's potentially 2 scum on the shadow wagon. so, fair enough, from your PoV, you know there were 3 townies on it. that doesn't really work for me, because if shadow's town, you are scum. and this is where VCA stuff loses me because, maybe shadow is town, and that means you and sheep were scum trying to make that wagon go through, and then... town didn't listen? even without considering my PoE and worlds, isn't that possible? do you have any opinion on sheep here? if you somehow magically found out sheep was scum, would you still feel the same way about this wagon? i also think you are missing a bit of context. if those 4 people were the peak of the shadow wagon... what about the people who weren't voting? because from what i remember, gemma was not fully trusting of shadow yet at this point, i think reg was actively suspecting shadow, vaimes i'm pretty sure was anti-shadow as well... lissa was the one saying "i don't get the reasons for voting shadow, so i'm not doing it"... do you think lissa is scum who was defending, and that's why the wagon didn't take off? or do you think maybe some of the people who suspected shadow but didn't vote him are scum who were trying to deflect away? that's sort of my issue here - i get that VCA is a thing, but don't you have to use it in context with other stuff? to me, to just say "a wagon stalled" is... not really enough, you know what i mean?
i'm looking at your second post, quoted below, and i'm having a bit of trouble following:
Rhand wagon stalled out a bit true, but not really in the same way at all which is kinda my point? It also had a lot more fluctuation than your wagon. Like, you accrued votes from exactly the 4 players I listed, 3 of which are town, and basically sat at 3 the entire Day. Rhand wagon had a lot of up and down and while I guess it was only 5 players from a participation standpoint, we only know the alignment of 1 of those being Wheat. And I also got a vote from Dels toDay which bumps it up to 6 - aka half the player base that has voted my slot.
Also, the timing of him going up to 4 votes was in direct competition with your stalled out wagon which then goes down to 1. Looks like scum feeling pressure on you and trying to get something to stick. If you are town why don't you think scum would have pushed your wagon past 3?
as a VCA layman, can you explain to me why a wagon with more fluctuation is more likely to be on a townie, in a vacuum? what i gather is, you think that since you know 3/4 on shadow were town, shadow is likely to be scum, but since 5/6 on shadow are still unknown, it's more likely there was scum there? there's only 3 scum in the game, which means that there generally were only 1 or 2 on each wagon anyway, right? and if sheep is scum on shadow, then that means that wagon did have scum on it? sorry if i'm being dumb, like i said this is not my area, so i am trying to understand.
regarding your other points on shadow in 1741, my opinion:
- i don't have any issue with the "setting up pairs" thing, that is how some people play.
- disagree that 604 feels tonally off. seems like a pretty standard shadow post to me. i do agree that shadow keeps making "i'm so excited" posts that don't feel... tonally right? but i'm pretty sure he wouldn't just, like, lie and fake bad excitement as scum. let me check with my team on this.
- i get what you're seeing with shadow being aware of the wagon in 610 conversation, but seeming unaware today. honestly, it's been over 2 weeks, it's quite possible he forgot. i don't think you are wrong about the PR thing - that's something he did near EoD1? Not at the point he was a wagon. Though he's not wrong that he's a riskier person for scum to push on either way, from what I can tell.
- i do remember vaimes pointing out the rhand wagon stall, but not the shadow wagon stall. vaimes said rhand could be scum for the wagon stalling like it did. honestly, vaimes is probably a better person to discuss the VCA stuff with than me, so hopefully he has some energy left to do that...
- i don't agree with the "re:LW" section. like i said, i think shadow's progression on last makes sense, i think it probably is possible for someone to think this wasn't last's towngame, and i think the way it came from a weird "team read" and "let's try something" feels natural and unforced, and especially, and this is what i said in my main shadow post, that it lacks agenda, because why just do that on Last and change your mind 30 posts later? what was he hoping to get, if scum? i don't see 817 as a big deal, and 919 again makes perfect sense to me with shadow's PoV on Last. It seems like genuine frustration.
sorry if none of that is helpful, i don't really... have much to say on most of your points. i just feel bad that i haven't engaged you, and that people aren't in general, because you are putting in work and it's possible you will be the lynch today and even if i am burnt out and want a break, i kind of owe it to you to discuss this with you, just in case you are town and shadow is scum, and even if that's not the case. none of this is because of you, it's just because it's been a long and grueling day phase and we kind of already did a lot of work before you came in. for what it's worth, i'd prefer to lynch sheep today, but i can't lie and say i think you are town. i don't think it is impossible for the team to be shadow/sheep/lissa though. i don't really disagree with you that shadow might be scum, i just also... don't really think it is for any of the stuff you are pointing out. i thought shadow was really towny day 1, it's just the past week that i've started getting worried about him.
anyway, now i'm gonna head off for real, will check back in tonight.
and gemma i kind of agree, i would like to know where vaimes is at >_> i've been kind of assuming he agrees with us about the PoE, but he really hasn't... said anything. @vaimes, any chance you could discuss the VCA stuff with hunger? i feel it is an area you are better suited for, and you specifically had thoughts about it yesterday...
okay hunger, i'm looking at your posts regarding shadow and the VCA.
Looking at the votes I find it odd that shadow was basically at 3 all Day and I know for a fact 3 of the main 4 people on him were town in Rhand/Last/Wheat. Don't really have any impressions of sheep yet, but he was the 4th. What I find odd is that he hovered around being the top wagon for most of the Day, but it just never got any traction. He was even the top wagon an hour before deadline and then both Rhand and Roz got run up fairly quickly instead. Definitely want to look into context on that.
so, my bad, i didn't remember when i made my last post that last and wheat were 2 of the people on the shadow wagon, so there are definitely two confirmed townies on it. but here's the issue. sheep being the 4th? if you are town, sheep is almost certain to be scum. even if you're not town, that's still true. and if you're not town, then that's potentially 2 scum on the shadow wagon. so, fair enough, from your PoV, you know there were 3 townies on it. that doesn't really work for me, because if shadow's town, you are scum. and this is where VCA stuff loses me because, maybe shadow is town, and that means you and sheep were scum trying to make that wagon go through, and then... town didn't listen? even without considering my PoE and worlds, isn't that possible? do you have any opinion on sheep here? if you somehow magically found out sheep was scum, would you still feel the same way about this wagon? i also think you are missing a bit of context. if those 4 people were the peak of the shadow wagon... what about the people who weren't voting? because from what i remember, gemma was not fully trusting of shadow yet at this point, i think reg was actively suspecting shadow, vaimes i'm pretty sure was anti-shadow as well... lissa was the one saying "i don't get the reasons for voting shadow, so i'm not doing it"... do you think lissa is scum who was defending, and that's why the wagon didn't take off? or do you think maybe some of the people who suspected shadow but didn't vote him are scum who were trying to deflect away? that's sort of my issue here - i get that VCA is a thing, but don't you have to use it in context with other stuff? to me, to just say "a wagon stalled" is... not really enough, you know what i mean?
i'm looking at your second post, quoted below, and i'm having a bit of trouble following:
Rhand wagon stalled out a bit true, but not really in the same way at all which is kinda my point? It also had a lot more fluctuation than your wagon. Like, you accrued votes from exactly the 4 players I listed, 3 of which are town, and basically sat at 3 the entire Day. Rhand wagon had a lot of up and down and while I guess it was only 5 players from a participation standpoint, we only know the alignment of 1 of those being Wheat. And I also got a vote from Dels toDay which bumps it up to 6 - aka half the player base that has voted my slot.
Also, the timing of him going up to 4 votes was in direct competition with your stalled out wagon which then goes down to 1. Looks like scum feeling pressure on you and trying to get something to stick. If you are town why don't you think scum would have pushed your wagon past 3?
as a VCA layman, can you explain to me why a wagon with more fluctuation is more likely to be on a townie, in a vacuum? what i gather is, you think that since you know 3/4 on shadow were town, shadow is likely to be scum, but since 5/6 on shadow are still unknown, it's more likely there was scum there? there's only 3 scum in the game, which means that there generally were only 1 or 2 on each wagon anyway, right? and if sheep is scum on shadow, then that means that wagon did have scum on it? sorry if i'm being dumb, like i said this is not my area, so i am trying to understand.
regarding your other points on shadow in 1741, my opinion:
- i don't have any issue with the "setting up pairs" thing, that is how some people play.
- disagree that 604 feels tonally off. seems like a pretty standard shadow post to me. i do agree that shadow keeps making "i'm so excited" posts that don't feel... tonally right? but i'm pretty sure he wouldn't just, like, lie and fake bad excitement as scum. let me check with my team on this.
- i get what you're seeing with shadow being aware of the wagon in 610 conversation, but seeming unaware today. honestly, it's been over 2 weeks, it's quite possible he forgot. i don't think you are wrong about the PR thing - that's something he did near EoD1? Not at the point he was a wagon. Though he's not wrong that he's a riskier person for scum to push on either way, from what I can tell.
- i do remember vaimes pointing out the rhand wagon stall, but not the shadow wagon stall. vaimes said rhand could be scum for the wagon stalling like it did. honestly, vaimes is probably a better person to discuss the VCA stuff with than me, so hopefully he has some energy left to do that...
- i don't agree with the "re:LW" section. like i said, i think shadow's progression on last makes sense, i think it probably is possible for someone to think this wasn't last's towngame, and i think the way it came from a weird "team read" and "let's try something" feels natural and unforced, and especially, and this is what i said in my main shadow post, that it lacks agenda, because why just do that on Last and change your mind 30 posts later? what was he hoping to get, if scum? i don't see 817 as a big deal, and 919 again makes perfect sense to me with shadow's PoV on Last. It seems like genuine frustration.
sorry if none of that is helpful, i don't really... have much to say on most of your points. i just feel bad that i haven't engaged you, and that people aren't in general, because you are putting in work and it's possible you will be the lynch today and even if i am burnt out and want a break, i kind of owe it to you to discuss this with you, just in case you are town and shadow is scum, and even if that's not the case. none of this is because of you, it's just because it's been a long and grueling day phase and we kind of already did a lot of work before you came in. for what it's worth, i'd prefer to lynch sheep today, but i can't lie and say i think you are town. i don't think it is impossible for the team to be shadow/sheep/lissa though. i don't really disagree with you that shadow might be scum, i just also... don't really think it is for any of the stuff you are pointing out. i thought shadow was really towny day 1, it's just the past week that i've started getting worried about him.
anyway, now i'm gonna head off for real, will check back in tonight.
and gemma i kind of agree, i would like to know where vaimes is at >_> i've been kind of assuming he agrees with us about the PoE, but he really hasn't... said anything. @vaimes, any chance you could discuss the VCA stuff with hunger? i feel it is an area you are better suited for, and you specifically had thoughts about it yesterday...
@Vaimes 585 - Why just on my slot when shadow had the same number of votes over a longer period of time and we have two confirmed town on his wagon?
Multiple times you mentioned that Last was scummy for the way his reads are all over the place. I know for a fact that you are aware of him doing this as town. So what was different in this game?
842 - What's your through process on the scum mindset here?
Also, [redacted]
People weren't making weird, strong-ish townreads on shadow. At this point, all I can recall is Lissa's strong townread on your slot.
I specifically asked what LW was like as scum, it was sheep who said something like scum!LW's reads make less sense or he doesn't care about scumreads or something similar, and I thought it matched the way he seemed to scumread everyone this game.
It looks like a vote of convenience rather than voting someone you believe to be scum.
@Hunger The scum agenda for your take on Vaimes is that he's an easy target if he's town. It's funny that you talk about tinfoil because your reads felt more like tinfoil than anything, heh.
I've seen two townies have the same reads without engaging each other on them before, so I don't think that's indicative of much.
@Dels What do you mean by equalize shadow and Lissa? They're both sitting at 50/50.
Day end votal deserves special attention. We have four unconfirmed slots on a lynch, with a very high likelihood of there being at least 1 mafia in the grouping.
From this votal alone, with sheep/Lissa both unaligned with Nancy, the likelihood of Nancy being mafia is pretty low. The reason for this is that if Rhand is town, the pool for mafia on the wagon shrinks to sheep/Lissa/Vaimes, and the team would have to be Vaimes/shadow/Nancy for Nancy to be mafia.
There's also a wonky combination of sheep simultaneously looking better if Rhand is v and being much more likely to be a wolf if Rhand is v, which maybe just means that Rhand isn't v?
If Rhand is town, with a townread on Vaimes, the team is pretty much locked as sheep/Lissa/shadow by virtue of PoE and antialigns.
Rhand's flip gives us the most information regardless of his alignment, which makes me want to kill him over anyone else. I'm not really concerned with the fact that it would make sheep the de facto lynch tomorrow, because I don't think there's any world where sheep is town if Rhand is v (he can still be town if the team is Rhand/shadow/Lissa).
[spoiler=legend]~ separates confirmed alignment from lock reads
- equals ~2.5%
)) hard bracket, each hard bracket covers 10-20%
) soft bracket, compartmentalizes groupings within a hard bracket
% is rand (75%)
> PoE marker
[] square bracketed slots are not in the lynch pool, even if they are in the PoE
Hm, I guess I forgot to account for roz's softing when I was looking at sheep's EoD votes, so that probably does away any level of villageriness about that in Rhand v worlds.
I think this makes shadow mafia, just for the way his Nancy read has evolved, it lines up with him having TMI that she's mafia. This reminds me of my post earlier in the dayphase.
Shadow
Gemma
Lissa
Dels
Vaimes
Killjoy
Sheep
Nancy
Rhand
I don't think the team is ever shadow/Rhand/nancy for this readlist. shadow/Nancy is most likely, if he's going for the "avoid lynching scummy buddy " which also sort of lines up with his comments EoD1 about shooting nancy. His second bud would most likely be up in Lissa/Dels/Vaimes.
I wouldn't say literally never, but I think it's a good look for Rhand given that shadow doesn't like to bus.
KJ/Dels/Lissa/sheep town, Vaimes dropoff city, Hunger question mark city, Nancy/shadow can die.
And don't tell me that Nancy can ever be town despite this, she's been posting up a storm on mafiascum the past week while completely ignoring this game and lying about being V/LA, her Lissa thing was weak and mindset-wise I think the pushback was null since she showed that she thought she was being towny, the only really solid reasoning for her being town was antialignment with Lissa/sheep (and I've been increasingly feeling that the pushes on sheep have been spewing him town).
Should I share the dream where I learned that the team was shadow/sheep/Regfan?
Vaimes, Sheep, Lissa are currently my strongest townreads.
I’m liking Regfan better since he’s got his head in the game. I’m still trying to do that. I’m kind of frazzled now because I haven’t even packed yet. I’m sure I will make up for that once I get back from my trip.
i sort of dislike nancy drew's confidence on townread with me tbh
not really enough progression doesnt seem that natural, like i remember nancy drew going like "sheep having me as town is acceptable" sort of didnt really see her bringing me up again until she goes sheep never scum?
Yeah, I probably shouldn’t have said that. I constzntly get into trouble for doing that. What I should have said, is that your one of my strongest townreads. In no particular order, I’m liking you, Vaimes and LW for town. Lissa may possibly be town evehthough she’s being kind of nasty and I think unfair to me.
im still null on most people, soem of regfan's reasons for townreading me felt a bit reachy eg townreading my openin post which was like oh i wish i randed wolf
Well,I still not completely caught up but I like sheep and LW for town. As I already said to Regfan, I usually don’t have any really strong scumreads this early. I dislike that phrase because it just sounds silly to me to say that unless you’re mod confirmed IC, or spewed town after a flip or something.
There are some interesting interactions going on between Gemma/Rhand, You/Gemma, Gemma/Regfan but I’m not sure if that means anything. Like sheep, I am not familiar with the playerbase, so don’t know if it’s just meta or something else.
And why is your vote on me?
Rule Of Three /chants
I think 450 is lightly townspewing for Rhand, it's intuitive to use a town player's reasoning as support for your case, whereas using a bud's ("look at my partner calling this townie scum") feels awkward.
I ran through Rhand/Hunger/Vaimes looking for antialigns and didn't get any.
Nancy/shadow/Vaimes makes a more sense to me than Nancy/shadow/Hunger on several levels.
Update: The game is still paused, please do not post. I am currently trying to work out how many people I need to modkill. Depending on whom and how many, we may go straight to Night. This situation will be resolved within 12 hours.
Nancy Drew 39 has been modkilled for willfully not posting in the game thread and for failing to respond to moderator communication. She was Georgy Malenkov - Deputy Party Leader - Mafia Vanilla. Please note that the circumstances are more complex than "Nancy lied about being V/LA", so please wait until it can be discussed after the game before commenting.
Georgy Malenkov - Deputy Party Leader
Mafia Vanilla
Originally in charge of overseeing the records of the party, your connections with the Vladimir Lenin have catapulted you almost to the very top of the pyramid. Stalin himself groomed you as his direct heir, and with his death you are finally ready to achieve your life’s work.
However, even as you prepare to eulogize the former leader alongside the party, you know that succession will not come easily: there are enemies on all sides, and there are already whispers of conspiracy. Which is why you need to strike the first blow.
Gemma has been modkilled for angleshooting and using out of game information, as well as implicitly linking to ongoing games on another site despite the thread having been explicitly warned not to do that. She was Georgy Zhukov - Head of the Red Army - Town Vanilla.
Georgy Zhukov - Head of the Red Army
Vanilla Town
The hero who ended the Great Patriotic War, you led the Red Army into Berlin and personally received the German surrender. This, as you enjoy telling people, makes you kind of a big deal.
While you prefer fighting with guns and bravery rather than words and daggers in backs, you are keenly aware that any power wishing to occupy the power vacuum after Stalin’s death would be very reliant on your support and the support of the Russian military. However, the current conspiracy has not approached, making you very nervous indeed. Prove yourself loyal to the party, and you will surely reap the rewards.
In the interests of game balance, these mod kills will take the place of the lynch and mafia night kill respectively. Day 2 is now over, and Night 2 will be a 24-hour long, no action Night for people to think about the rules.
You are reminded of the following rules:
DO NOT discuss the modkills in the game thread
DO NOT use OOG information to inform your reads in-thread
If you must go V/LA for a long time, you must communicate with the mods and make a best effort attempt to continue to play the game
If you suspect someone is cheating, lying, or breaking any rules you MUST PM the mod and DO NOT bring it up in thread.
The sun rises, and the crumpled people in crumpled suits begin to stir. Conversation increases in direct correlation to the amount of coffee passed around, even though the dwindling supplies have done nothing to improve the taste.
"What a terrible set of accidents yesterday"
"Yeah, and the same elevator shaft - those doors really should have been more secure"
"And what sort of person would think that was a good place to store that much rusty, serrated scrap metal?"
"I heard the doctors couldn't even tell which bits belonged to who."
You push away your plate of suddenly unappealing breakfast meats. Closing your eyes, you wait for the vodka to make it's way round to you.
No actions occurred in Night 2.
It is now Day 3, which will end in 14 days on Monday 3rd September at 2200BST. This may be extended if the site difficulties continue significantly.
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. You are reminded to please not discuss the circumstances behind the modkills.
So, despite some awkwardness, we're in a significantly better position now, so... hey, I'll take it.
I'm inclined to agree with most of Gemma's findings. I think Lissa is almost certainly town. I would lean towards sheep being town as well.
The Word of God says that Vaimes is still town. If anyone wants to know why, I can ask for more of a reason.
This leaves my PoE as... literally just Shadow and Hunger. My team says it's 2 out of 3 of Shadow/Hunger/Sheep. I would lean towards Shadow/Hunger, the Sheep stuff really doesn't look like w/w to me, but we technically have 3 lynches left and my team is right that if Shadow/Hunger lynches don't end the game, then it'd have to be Sheep.
Requoting myself - here are all of sheep's posts where he talks about Nancy:
Posts where Sheep uses meta knowledge to read people: 70 - Sheep explains his meta with people. Nancy Drew of course he said earlier is an easy read. Note that he only played "one game with wisp where he didn't post much" (this is relevant soon)
225 - "nancy drew is gun to my head town" 426 - Dislikes Nancy's easy townread on sheep. Note consistency with sheep disliking people who TR him. 467 - Feels better about Nancy Drew. Between last post and this one is the bulk of the Nancy/Lissa argument, where (imo) Nancy reacted in a pretty town!Nancy way, so this makes sense. Also 428 where Nancy admits the TR was too strong/too easy. 645 - "nancy had something i disliked here and there but overall pretty towny" 1320 - day 2 readslist, nancy "towny". 1321 - day 2, wonders why nancy hasn't posted more. (nancy is... on vacation? so...?)
I always thought this was not-w/w because if sheep is scum, it's like... really weird. Why set yourself up as a Nancy expert with a "I can read nancy easily" and then hedge around on it instead of just calling her town? Why make that first statement at all if Nancy is your buddy and you don't know how you'll be able to follow through?
The most telling I think is "1321" where sheep says a town Nancy would be posting more. Sheep literally doesn't realize that Nancy is on V/LA...? Really weird to call Nancy town in one post, then shade her for not posting in the next.
The only way sheep being with Nancy makes sense is if he sets himself up as the Nancy meta reader early without thinking about it, then he feels like he has to call her town because, well, he doesn't want to bus... but then he realizes her posts aren't that towny, so he awkwardly dials back on it? I guess it's possible, it just doesn't seem the most likely to me.
All of Nancy's posts to/about sheep:
204 - That awkward first post, "Well sheep looks like we both rolled town etc" 216 - Uses sheep as an example of someone who is posting towny content 284 - Asks sheep why sheep is townreading her 428 - The interaction with sheep where sheep has a problem with nancy townreading him so confidently, and Nancy dials back 359 - Reaffirms townread on sheep 782 - Lists sheep as a top townread along with Vaimes and Lissa
Just linking these in case anyone wants to look. There's really nothing major here, but that interaction where sheep questions Nancy for the too-confident townread and Nancy dials it back seems pretty unaligned.
I noted any other Nancy posts where she talked about currently alive people. Sadly, she... mostly only interacted with Gemma and Lissa. She has barely any posts about other people, besides the ones about sheep.
I don't feel the need to requote the Lissa stuff, we all remember it. Does anyone disagree that Nancy/Lissa are not-w/w?
324 - She seems to take an issue with Gemma townreading Shadow for tone. She seems to have a problem with Shadow, could look like discrediting a townread on a townie.
278 - She notes that Gemma/Shadow and Gemma/Rhand interactions ping her. This is pretty weird if her teammates are Shadow and Rhand?
534 - This is her response to Shadow's suspicion - she sort of tries to laugh it off and deflect. It looks like she's trying to avoid suspicion from a town!Shadow?
561 - There's a very minor soft defense of Shadow here - LW says Shadow is attacking him for "not spamming" and Nancy disagrees with it. Also she asks "Why is Vaimes scum?" Note she has both LW and Vaimes as townreads
339 - I think this is literally her only post about Rhand, unless I missed one. She says he's null and asks Gemma why he's scummy.
782 - This is one of her last posts, she has Vaimes, Sheep, Lissa as strongest townreads. I think they're all town? But noting this just for the record since all 3 are still alive. Rule of 3 to your hearts content. =P
That's... all I've got, apparently. She really didn't post anything very helpful in terms of interactions with most people.
In regards to Shadow... requoting my section on Shadow's scumread on Nancy:
Nancy:
His Nancy read is another one that I love. 473. I want to quote it here because I think everyone should read it:
Nancy is like...focusing incorrectly. She doesn’t seem to have a feel for the heartbeat of the game at all. I know that’s not inherently a scum only trait, but it certainly feels like she doesn’t know how to insert herself into the game.
This, even more than the vote on Lastwhisper, is what feels like an authentic townie perspective to me. This type of read has a lot of depth to it, and I think townies makes this kind of read way more often, and scum struggle to fake them believably. This shows that Shadow actually has a read on the game – he is posting a lot in the thread and keeping up – and he is using it for something. And the read fits – I can definitely see where he is coming from. (And I even sort of agree with this perspective, I’ve been rethinking Nancy a bit between start of day and now. But I’ll talk about that in my Nancy post.)
I have continued pushing on Nancy noted down for 547, but I’m not sure what point I wanted to make about that post, so I’ll just leave it here, idk.
The post I actually love is 555, because this helps form the complete puzzle along with Shadow’s Last progression. Look at how damn annoyed he is that Gemma actually posts a reason to townread Nancy. He hates it. He grumbles. He moans like a wildebeast. Okay, I’m exaggerating. But my point is: when I see him get annoyed like this, it doesn’t feel like he’s pushing any sort of agenda. It feels like he hates Nancy’s posts the same way he hates Last’s, and he is truly annoyed at the possibility they might just be town. I don’t think scum shows this sort of annoyance that people aren’t accepting their pushes. Not outwardly.
This is the part I wanna talk about. Gemma says this looks like TMI. I... don't really agree? I really liked Shadow's read on Nancy, it had way more depth than any of his others. Which... in retrospect, could be exactly TMI. But it's still pretty brutal for a bus. But he didn't ever vote Nancy. But he did say she should be vigged. And then day 2 he kept calling Nancy scum, and eventually Gemma and I convinced him out of it. (whoops lol) Honestly, it looked more like scum trying to push a lynch on a townie and being annoyed it wasn't working.
I think Shadow is probably scum, but we still have to do our due diligence here, I'd feel stupid if Shadow was town and we lynched him and said that his correct push on a scum was bussing/TMI and it wasn't.
Does anyone have any thoughts about Shadow's Nancy push?
Last thing to do is check Rhand's day 1 ISO to see how he talked about Nancy. I actually don't remember. Hunger didn't talk about Nancy yesterday, as far as I recall. I'll do that later/tomorrow, but otherwise... I think we're kind of on track to just... win.
Either way, this is what I feel our starting point is today. Gonna try (really) to cut down this phase, I can't keep going like I did day 2 and for my own sanity / life I'll try to just play in the evenings and take my mind off the game during the day. Idk.
the other thing on the docket for today should be what gemma pointed out: shadow's day 1 readslist which had both rhand and nancy at the bottom.
gemma says shadow doesn't bus like that. i've asked my team but they haven't had time to talk about it yet.
personally i don't rule anything out. sometimes, someone who doesn't usually bus, gets into a situation where they do. did rhand start it against shadow first? if so, maybe shadow felt he had to suspect rhand in return? let's look into this.
Nancy is like...focusing incorrectly. She doesn’t seem to have a feel for the heartbeat of the game at all. I know that’s not inherently a scum only trait, but it certainly feels like she doesn’t know how to insert herself into the game. I should probably go read her again in the other game she was in here before replacing out.
idek
i think him just putting this out there except not actually using it to make a read out of it sort of makes sense as distancing
was there a follow up after he looked at the old nancy game
Nancy is like...focusing incorrectly. She doesn’t seem to have a feel for the heartbeat of the game at all. I know that’s not inherently a scum only trait, but it certainly feels like she doesn’t know how to insert herself into the game. I should probably go read her again in the other game she was in here before replacing out.
idek
i think him just putting this out there except not actually using it to make a read out of it sort of makes sense as distancing
was there a follow up after he looked at the old nancy game
also while ctrl+fing for nancy i noted 1168 where LW said he'd consider voting nancy, but shadow shot it down by saying there weren't enough people to do it. probably factually true? but worth noting. contrast to 1086 where shadow does consider a CFD on nancy? but says he wants roz to die anyway.
I think this progression on Dels is actually really town of you.
Like, I mentioned early in the dayphase that one of the people pushing on Dels was probably mafia, and it's because scum tend to be shy of scumreading people who are playing the way Dels has been playing. He's even more blatantly town at this point in the game and thread temperature has moved that way (I have actually locked him as town after his posts while I was asleep, and was 99% sure he was town before that) so for you to move from "Dels town, Gemma weren't you saying he was super town EoD1?" to "Dels in PoE" strikes me as a very real progression from you and not something you would be interested in pursuing as a wolf here.
Your Nancy read also feels super real, I can sympathize with the way you're struggling with her and I think the way you've talked about her in relation to your other reads feels pretty genuine and I can see how you're trying work things through there.
Fmpov, both Lissa and sheep are in my PoE, I have them both as unaligned with Nancy, I have a weak townread on Nancy's ISO in a vacuum, so I have more reasons to think she's town than not. I would love to feel better about her, and I am admittedly somewhat overcompensating because if she's town then clearing her is a winning move, but I don't have huge reasons to doubt it other than niggles like "ugh my scumread on sheep isn't that strong, if he's town then maybe it's her?" "I wish she had actually scumhunted" "why aren't scum going after her more / trying to open up that lynch again" (you're the only one who fits with that) and I don't think entertaining those thoughts is super helpful at this stage. I do feel reasonably confident that I can lock her as town and remove those little doubts in the next 2 days before deadline if she is town, provided she actually does things. In other words, I don't think you're completely insane for thinking that Nancy could be mafia, I just wanted/want to see you engage with that as a real thing and not say "well I don't care much about the stuff you're reading into because it could just be playstyle / whatever and I'm just going to scumread her".
I like your Lissa read. I don't really think she's town but I can vibe with that take on her.
well wait a minute, if shadow is town, then why would lissa not want to push him? that's the bit where you lose me. in this scenario, lissa is scum with hunger and sheep, and she's set herself up to vote shadow, and we also have shadow in our PoE, so shouldn't pushing shadow be a good move for her? if anything, this could look like lissa is with shadow and is pushing a town!sheep? or am i being dumb?
i need to look at lissa's posts again in the morning with a clear head probably. i am way too susceptible to recency bias right now. but lissa did actually get me to look at the sheep/nancy stuff again and be like "well wait, why do I think sheep's progression on nancy is so good". looking at it again now, i guess she's really only focused on that today in regards to sheep. so maybe you're right that it's not a great push. but you seem more concerned about her overall direction with it? i also just like that lissa is finally starting to see the game in the same way i do. that's... kind of what i expected from lissa from the start. we haven't played a non-mash game together, but i've always gotten the impression we feel very similarly about the game of mafia in general. but i admit she could just be getting there because, well, there aren't any options, and i kind of outlined for her exactly what i expected to see if she's town, and she's just... giving it to me. her post just now about not really caring to push any of shadow/sheep/hunger and her "well, scum are boxed in" also aligns with my own PoV right now, so i guess that's what overall makes me feel better. granted she's way less... manic about it than i am. but this is why i said i need you to slap me if i'm being too naive.
hmm. was she still townreading rhand at the time she investigated the rhand/shadow w/w possibility? will check tomorrow. i do agree that the lissa/sheep/rhand world has made perfect sense for a long time. i was reacting purely to today's new posts to change it around, and maybe i shouldn't have. if lissa is town then its sheep/shadow/hungerhand? we know why hunger/shadow can be w/w. sheep/shadow can be w/w. sheep/rhand can definitely still be w/w, that "null" read on rhand from sheep day 1 leading to an easy townread to a "won't lynch rhand", plus hunger's lack of talking about sheep today is...
I'll try to make a proper post about this, rather than just saying things off the top of my head.
Okay, we've apparently swapped places because this time I didn't think shadow's response was great.
I have a few questions for you (and shadow) here.
1) "one of the people pushing on Dels was probably mafia, and it's because scum tend to be shy of scumreading people who are playing the way Dels has been playing." Is there a typo here? If scum are shy about doing it, then why are the people doing it likely to contain a mafia? (I pondered about this earlier in the day which is what led to me realizing the PoE scenario - because I was thinking "why are scum pushing me" and then i realized, well, they had to, they weren't gonna get a mislynch on half the game.)
2) isn't shadow putting me as possible scum here exactly what he'd do if he was scum? going back to the PoE thing, if shadow is dropping the nancy case, then his PoE has to become lissa/hunger/sheep/dels as i outlined. if he's scum, then we've pushed him on the nancy thing enough for him to realize that continuing to push it (especially with sheep) probably isn't smart, so then... well, as he said, I have to drop by PoE. i can see why it's towny because it's sort of... against the grain and it's the opposite of the progression an agenda-y scum would have. but also i think you're overcrediting what is a sort of standard move.
and 3) @shadow: can you explain the "everyone in there has reasons to be town" which you said about the PoE of dels/lissa/hunger/sheep? because it doesn't feel like you've really felt sheep has any reasons to be town, and i don't see any in this post? all you said about hunger is "Hunger coming into the game has been like...okay posting and I'm somewhat paranoid that he is town and he and I are being setup to be chain lynched." and i don't feel like you've given any reasons for hunger to be town besides that? so it feels like a fake thought to me.
i'm also just noting that both shadow and hunger said the "if we're v/v, then scum can mislynch us both for the win" which is just... so weird for me when hunger is pushing shadow and shadow was pushing rhand and now isn't. am i wrong to be pinged by this? just confbiasing the shadow/hunger w/w theory?
i will say that i can see how shadow's progression on nancy also fits as a townie being openminded and reconsidering after reading our cases. the lissa read... i'm sort of split on. i know shadow said at the bottom of his post that he wants to reread the 4 PoE people, but he seems to only have towny things to say about lissa, was townreading me, and is now less sure about hunger... so it feels like it's still an incomplete world view. maybe it is, because he admitted he has to flesh it out. are you feeling any of that as well? because you seemed to have the opposite reaction to the post as me.
2) I may be giving that too much credit, yeah. But he has to know that you're never getting lynched and any push on you would be insane at this point if he's mafia, so entertaining that without angling on you / shading you seems, eh, okay? I think the weird part of it is that he has pulled you down instead of Vaimes. That's... interesting.
I also think it's weird that they're both saying the same thing about being chain lynched, but at the same time I think it's somewhat natural for town to be a bit paranoid of that? It's just a matter of reading into how they're reading into that and what they're doing about it.
I don't have any preference within the two right now which is mostly why I haven't moved I suppose. If you put a gun to my head I'd go shadow because a world without him is a little weirder than one without sheep but... pretty equally want to do either.
re. points 1 i see what you mean now. re. pt 2, hard for me to be unbiased here, but i get it. shadow's post doesn't feel particularly agenda-y, especially the reads on me and lissa. and if anything, dropping the nancy thing is the opposite of agenda.
i will say that shadow's post about LW to hunger makes perfect sense. that's... exactly how i was envisioning shadow's progression on LW day 1. it felt like shadow was genuinely annoyed by LW despite townreading them for most of the day. and the justification for the vote on LW makes sense within that.
Gemma, eevee, Last, Wheat ~ KJ, Dels )) - Nancy --- Vaimes )) ------ % )) > ------ )) ---- shadow, Lissa ---- sheep )) -------- Hunger ))
I want to kill Hunger, shoot sheep if he flips scum, leave you guys with shadow/Lissa tomorrow.
shadowlancerx - 1 (Hunger)
Dels_8 - 1 (Lissa)
Lissa - 1 (Dels_8)
sheepsaysmeep - 1 (shadowlancerx)
Not Voting - 3 (Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep)
This wagon formation always lynches a wolf.
Umm, what don't you buy about the flawless victory? What do you think happens in the world where shadow and I are both town. Also, shadow has mentioned this same thing multiple times, why is it OK when he says the same thing?
It's absolutely not an excuse to shove shadow. It's like the main reason for me to NOT push shadow. Like 80% of the reason I am pushing shadow is the way his wagon stalled out, who was on his wagon, the timing of the wagons, and who the counter wagons were. Why does everyone continue to ignore that? The only person that's even had a comment on it at all was...shadow. And dels saying he wouldn't touch it I guess.
It most certainly is a real read. It's just not super fleshed out. I started spamming the thread with my notes yesterDay because I realized I am not going to have the time to get fully into this game before deadline and like, I shouldn't probably even be taking the time I have been so far since I'm doing it all at work, but I wanted to have something in the thread before deadline.
Sorry that I don't have anything airtight I guess? I just know Vaimes does not actually think Last's behavior in this game couldn't be from town Last.
Also, what's the scum game here? In your scum!Hunger world, what's the agenda for shading Vaimes?
Self meta alert
I often get run up in the early game because I am awful at tonal reads and as town I struggle to get into the game until there are flips/claims/wagons for me to look at. I also tend to overthink my posts and be waaayyyy more paranoid as town which comes off as hedgy/waffle-y and gets me in trouble. I play much more loose and non-confrontational as scum. As scum I never ever post these thoughts about Vaimes because I know they are incomplete and I'll probably get some blowback for it.
My point on the mindmeld is that they seem to have shared the same read/thoughts of Last, but they never talk to each other about it or acknowledge it? As town why wouldn't they be like, "hey this guy has a similar read as me, he's probably town too, lets work on this together" So instead it has me feeling like they have the same narrative because scum chat, but they are keeping distance from each other.
And as I read that back it sounds pretty tinfoily now...but still, something doesn't sit right with me the way they both approached Last.
1. Maybe, yeah. I haven't ISO'd you yet because time. But again, this was essentially my note dump on you so it's also sort of a reminder to check on that. I know I was lynched in a game that I was scum in part for making unaligned pairs in the early game and at the time I was like, "well *****, that's actually true."
2. Blegh. I so get what you mean and it really makes me want to believe you.
Also, I haven't mentioned Nancy. Or really said anything of substance about anyone other than shadow and Vaimes
after sleeping on it, this is kind of where i'm at, but swap sheep and hunger, equalize lissa and shadow maybe, and i guess probably swap nancy and vaimes but that's whatever.
i was definitely being too manic yesterday. sorry, it happens. i've said this before but i fully admit that nothing lissa posted yesterday is really stuff she'd be incapable of posting as a wolf. if i'm saying don't give shadow credit for arriving at the "correct" PoE, i shouldn't feel differently about lissa. i'm being naive if i say she's town for it. all the things i had issues with in the past are still things. i just feel bad for suspecting her. but also i still feel like what i said at the start of this day which is that if lissa is town, i really should be able to get there. (and i mean actually get there, not just get there out of recency bias / feeling bad / naivete) but i was also influenced by shadow's posts which were just sort of... lacking. sleeping on it, i feel like you know him better than i do and it's possible i'm just expecting stuff that he wouldn't give anyway. he's clearly not like us, isn't living in the thread, isn't gonna give tons of analysis behind every read. and he really does seem to just be doing his own thing, doesn't feel like an agenda. my gut was telling me to just stick with my initial read and assume shadow is the townie until yesterday, and i was probably too quick to change that. but i think lissa and shadow are the two people we need to keep monitoring/evaluating, so i agree with you. i'm fairly split on them.
but also, man, i can't do what you do, the way you were able to attack those hunger quotes like that, haha. i'm like, the opposite, i read hungers posts and my mind is like "well look, he's trying, he's posting stuff, maybe he's just town after all!" but i know that he probably isn't, unless shadow and lissa are BOTH scum. which is possible, but... doesn't seem as likely as hunger being scum. i agree with the points you called out. it does seem a bit like shading vaimes without trying to actually understand, and the "but i don't want to lynch vaimes today" mindset is a bit odd. i guess it makes sense if his focus is 100% on shadow, because as a replacement that is all he can do...? but this is why i'd rather lynch sheep, because i can at least imagine a world where hunger is town? i know that's still just me being overly reactionary, and that none of this stuff is worth a townread or anything, it's still just... something though, isn't it? feels kind of silly to lynch hunger here over sheep. i'm not opposed to it, i probably wouldn't oppose any lynch in the PoE, but am i being lazy for thinking sheep is the safer option?
will take your advice and spend some time away from the game, will check back in tonight. i'd love to take a day off but, like, we're near EoD.
- like gemma said, a "if shadow and i are v/v then town will lose" thought isn't necessarily scummy on its own, but its what you do with it. you seem pretty intent on lynching shadow here, so in the world where you are v/v, what is your plan?
- sorry about the wagon stuff. it's just really not my area, mostly because i'm like... well what if the voters on shadow were townies and they were just wrong and it didn't go further because the rest of the town (rightfully) didn't agree? or if there were scum on shadow and the town didn't follow? i will try to take a look at it and your other shadow posts so i can engage with you on this.
- my issue with your vaimes points is mostly just that i... i guess i just don't see them as valid. your issue with both shadow and vaimes is that they had an issue with last, and i just... don't believe it's impossible for either of them to?
- if you're scum, you don't have an "agenda" for shading vaimes, you are just trying to find a read you can have so that it looks like you have unique thoughts beyond just pushing shadow. the mindmeld thing is... i dunno, i'm glad you can admit it sounds tinfoily, because to me it's just... like gemma said, a mindmeld isn't w/w. your case is that they had the same thought but they didn't ever go "hey we're mindmelding :D" and that's what makes it w/w but... like, isn't it possible that if two people had the same thought, it's because it was a valid thought? like, vaimes and shadow both know Last, right? So if both of them had an issue with Last, either they are both scum for it, or at least one is town and therefore it proves that townies absolutely could suspect Last here. What's scummy about it is it sort of feels like you jumped to the conclusion so that you could have something to post that wasn't about shadow.
- the w/w connection between you and shadow has been discussed in a few other posts. the gist of it is that rhand's suspicion on shadow lacked the same progression/depth his suspicion on gemma had, and that before EoD came around, rhand said the shadow wagon wasn't gaining traction, so he moved off it, and shadow, despite pushing rhand a lot of the day, moved over to roz, and only moved back to rhand when rhand was in no danger. today, shadow voted rhand but didn't really push it (after EoD, it looked quite possible that rhand would be lynched today, so it's a fine time to get on that wagon), and now shadow is... on sheep instead, for reasons i still don't fully understand. you are pushing shadow pretty heavily, which is the interesting part, but i think if you're w/w with shadow, just replacing in, knowing people are thinking this, you'd probably not want to just completely avoid shadow, because it'd just play in to those theories. I don't think any of this means you have to be w/w with shadow - but i don't think it's ruled out, and that's what most of the discussion there has been about.
Hunger - 2 (Vaimes, Gemma)
shadowlancerx - 1 (Hunger)
Dels_8 - 1 (Lissa)
sheepsaysmeep - 1 (shadowlancerx)
Not Voting - 4 (Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep, Dels_8)
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Given issues with the site, the deadline has been extended by 24 hours, and will now end at 22BST Sunday 19th August.
Nancy has returned from V/LA and has promised posts this weekend. This will be enforced.
so, my bad, i didn't remember when i made my last post that last and wheat were 2 of the people on the shadow wagon, so there are definitely two confirmed townies on it. but here's the issue. sheep being the 4th? if you are town, sheep is almost certain to be scum. even if you're not town, that's still true. and if you're not town, then that's potentially 2 scum on the shadow wagon. so, fair enough, from your PoV, you know there were 3 townies on it. that doesn't really work for me, because if shadow's town, you are scum. and this is where VCA stuff loses me because, maybe shadow is town, and that means you and sheep were scum trying to make that wagon go through, and then... town didn't listen? even without considering my PoE and worlds, isn't that possible? do you have any opinion on sheep here? if you somehow magically found out sheep was scum, would you still feel the same way about this wagon? i also think you are missing a bit of context. if those 4 people were the peak of the shadow wagon... what about the people who weren't voting? because from what i remember, gemma was not fully trusting of shadow yet at this point, i think reg was actively suspecting shadow, vaimes i'm pretty sure was anti-shadow as well... lissa was the one saying "i don't get the reasons for voting shadow, so i'm not doing it"... do you think lissa is scum who was defending, and that's why the wagon didn't take off? or do you think maybe some of the people who suspected shadow but didn't vote him are scum who were trying to deflect away? that's sort of my issue here - i get that VCA is a thing, but don't you have to use it in context with other stuff? to me, to just say "a wagon stalled" is... not really enough, you know what i mean?
i'm looking at your second post, quoted below, and i'm having a bit of trouble following:
as a VCA layman, can you explain to me why a wagon with more fluctuation is more likely to be on a townie, in a vacuum? what i gather is, you think that since you know 3/4 on shadow were town, shadow is likely to be scum, but since 5/6 on shadow are still unknown, it's more likely there was scum there? there's only 3 scum in the game, which means that there generally were only 1 or 2 on each wagon anyway, right? and if sheep is scum on shadow, then that means that wagon did have scum on it? sorry if i'm being dumb, like i said this is not my area, so i am trying to understand.
regarding your other points on shadow in 1741, my opinion:
- i don't have any issue with the "setting up pairs" thing, that is how some people play.
- disagree that 604 feels tonally off. seems like a pretty standard shadow post to me. i do agree that shadow keeps making "i'm so excited" posts that don't feel... tonally right? but i'm pretty sure he wouldn't just, like, lie and fake bad excitement as scum. let me check with my team on this.
- i get what you're seeing with shadow being aware of the wagon in 610 conversation, but seeming unaware today. honestly, it's been over 2 weeks, it's quite possible he forgot. i don't think you are wrong about the PR thing - that's something he did near EoD1? Not at the point he was a wagon. Though he's not wrong that he's a riskier person for scum to push on either way, from what I can tell.
- i do remember vaimes pointing out the rhand wagon stall, but not the shadow wagon stall. vaimes said rhand could be scum for the wagon stalling like it did. honestly, vaimes is probably a better person to discuss the VCA stuff with than me, so hopefully he has some energy left to do that...
- i don't agree with the "re:LW" section. like i said, i think shadow's progression on last makes sense, i think it probably is possible for someone to think this wasn't last's towngame, and i think the way it came from a weird "team read" and "let's try something" feels natural and unforced, and especially, and this is what i said in my main shadow post, that it lacks agenda, because why just do that on Last and change your mind 30 posts later? what was he hoping to get, if scum? i don't see 817 as a big deal, and 919 again makes perfect sense to me with shadow's PoV on Last. It seems like genuine frustration.
sorry if none of that is helpful, i don't really... have much to say on most of your points. i just feel bad that i haven't engaged you, and that people aren't in general, because you are putting in work and it's possible you will be the lynch today and even if i am burnt out and want a break, i kind of owe it to you to discuss this with you, just in case you are town and shadow is scum, and even if that's not the case. none of this is because of you, it's just because it's been a long and grueling day phase and we kind of already did a lot of work before you came in. for what it's worth, i'd prefer to lynch sheep today, but i can't lie and say i think you are town. i don't think it is impossible for the team to be shadow/sheep/lissa though. i don't really disagree with you that shadow might be scum, i just also... don't really think it is for any of the stuff you are pointing out. i thought shadow was really towny day 1, it's just the past week that i've started getting worried about him.
anyway, now i'm gonna head off for real, will check back in tonight.
and gemma i kind of agree, i would like to know where vaimes is at >_> i've been kind of assuming he agrees with us about the PoE, but he really hasn't... said anything. @vaimes, any chance you could discuss the VCA stuff with hunger? i feel it is an area you are better suited for, and you specifically had thoughts about it yesterday...
Leaving my vote here.
Vote: Sheepsaysmeep
so, my bad, i didn't remember when i made my last post that last and wheat were 2 of the people on the shadow wagon, so there are definitely two confirmed townies on it. but here's the issue. sheep being the 4th? if you are town, sheep is almost certain to be scum. even if you're not town, that's still true. and if you're not town, then that's potentially 2 scum on the shadow wagon. so, fair enough, from your PoV, you know there were 3 townies on it. that doesn't really work for me, because if shadow's town, you are scum. and this is where VCA stuff loses me because, maybe shadow is town, and that means you and sheep were scum trying to make that wagon go through, and then... town didn't listen? even without considering my PoE and worlds, isn't that possible? do you have any opinion on sheep here? if you somehow magically found out sheep was scum, would you still feel the same way about this wagon? i also think you are missing a bit of context. if those 4 people were the peak of the shadow wagon... what about the people who weren't voting? because from what i remember, gemma was not fully trusting of shadow yet at this point, i think reg was actively suspecting shadow, vaimes i'm pretty sure was anti-shadow as well... lissa was the one saying "i don't get the reasons for voting shadow, so i'm not doing it"... do you think lissa is scum who was defending, and that's why the wagon didn't take off? or do you think maybe some of the people who suspected shadow but didn't vote him are scum who were trying to deflect away? that's sort of my issue here - i get that VCA is a thing, but don't you have to use it in context with other stuff? to me, to just say "a wagon stalled" is... not really enough, you know what i mean?
i'm looking at your second post, quoted below, and i'm having a bit of trouble following:
as a VCA layman, can you explain to me why a wagon with more fluctuation is more likely to be on a townie, in a vacuum? what i gather is, you think that since you know 3/4 on shadow were town, shadow is likely to be scum, but since 5/6 on shadow are still unknown, it's more likely there was scum there? there's only 3 scum in the game, which means that there generally were only 1 or 2 on each wagon anyway, right? and if sheep is scum on shadow, then that means that wagon did have scum on it? sorry if i'm being dumb, like i said this is not my area, so i am trying to understand.
regarding your other points on shadow in 1741, my opinion:
- i don't have any issue with the "setting up pairs" thing, that is how some people play.
- disagree that 604 feels tonally off. seems like a pretty standard shadow post to me. i do agree that shadow keeps making "i'm so excited" posts that don't feel... tonally right? but i'm pretty sure he wouldn't just, like, lie and fake bad excitement as scum. let me check with my team on this.
- i get what you're seeing with shadow being aware of the wagon in 610 conversation, but seeming unaware today. honestly, it's been over 2 weeks, it's quite possible he forgot. i don't think you are wrong about the PR thing - that's something he did near EoD1? Not at the point he was a wagon. Though he's not wrong that he's a riskier person for scum to push on either way, from what I can tell.
- i do remember vaimes pointing out the rhand wagon stall, but not the shadow wagon stall. vaimes said rhand could be scum for the wagon stalling like it did. honestly, vaimes is probably a better person to discuss the VCA stuff with than me, so hopefully he has some energy left to do that...
- i don't agree with the "re:LW" section. like i said, i think shadow's progression on last makes sense, i think it probably is possible for someone to think this wasn't last's towngame, and i think the way it came from a weird "team read" and "let's try something" feels natural and unforced, and especially, and this is what i said in my main shadow post, that it lacks agenda, because why just do that on Last and change your mind 30 posts later? what was he hoping to get, if scum? i don't see 817 as a big deal, and 919 again makes perfect sense to me with shadow's PoV on Last. It seems like genuine frustration.
sorry if none of that is helpful, i don't really... have much to say on most of your points. i just feel bad that i haven't engaged you, and that people aren't in general, because you are putting in work and it's possible you will be the lynch today and even if i am burnt out and want a break, i kind of owe it to you to discuss this with you, just in case you are town and shadow is scum, and even if that's not the case. none of this is because of you, it's just because it's been a long and grueling day phase and we kind of already did a lot of work before you came in. for what it's worth, i'd prefer to lynch sheep today, but i can't lie and say i think you are town. i don't think it is impossible for the team to be shadow/sheep/lissa though. i don't really disagree with you that shadow might be scum, i just also... don't really think it is for any of the stuff you are pointing out. i thought shadow was really towny day 1, it's just the past week that i've started getting worried about him.
anyway, now i'm gonna head off for real, will check back in tonight.
and gemma i kind of agree, i would like to know where vaimes is at >_> i've been kind of assuming he agrees with us about the PoE, but he really hasn't... said anything. @vaimes, any chance you could discuss the VCA stuff with hunger? i feel it is an area you are better suited for, and you specifically had thoughts about it yesterday...
Leaving my vote here.
Vote: Sheepsaysmeep
Is the honest answer.
I specifically asked what LW was like as scum, it was sheep who said something like scum!LW's reads make less sense or he doesn't care about scumreads or something similar, and I thought it matched the way he seemed to scumread everyone this game.
It looks like a vote of convenience rather than voting someone you believe to be scum.
Maybe I just need a while longer away from here, and then I'll pretend I replaced myself to get my head back in the game.
I've seen two townies have the same reads without engaging each other on them before, so I don't think that's indicative of much.
@Dels What do you mean by equalize shadow and Lissa? They're both sitting at 50/50.
sorry vaimes, i know its my fault =/
shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wheat_Grinder, Rhand)
Rhand – 3 (Vaimes, Gemma, shadowlancerx)
Gemma – 1 (Lastwhisper)
Wheat_Grinder – 1 (Lissa)
Not Voting – 4 (Regfan, Killjoy, roz_the_eevee, Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.3
shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
Rhand – 2 (Vaimes, Gemma)
Wheat_Grinder – 1 (Lissa)
roz_the_eevee – 1 (shadowlancerx)
Killjoy – 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
Not Voting – 4 (Regfan, Killjoy, roz_the_eevee, Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.4
shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
Rhand - 3 (Vaimes, shadowlancerx, Gemma)
Wheat_Grinder - 1 (Lissa)
Killjoy – 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
Lissa – 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Killjoy (1): Wheat_Grinder
Not Voting – 3 (Regfan, Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.5
shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
Rhand – 2 (Vaimes, shadowlancerx)
Wheat_Grinder – 2 (Lissa, Killjoy)
Lissa – 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Lastwhisper – 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
roz_the_eevee – 1 (Gemma)
Not Voting – 2 (Regfan, Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.6
shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Lastwhisper, Wheat_Grinder)
roz_the_eevee - 3 (Gemma, Lissa, shadowlancerx)
Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Killjoy, Rhand)
Rhand - 1 (Vaimes)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Not Voting - 2 (Regfan, Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.7
roz_the_eevee - 4 (Lissa, shadowlancerx, Dels_8, Gemma)
shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Lastwhisper, Wheat_Grinder)
Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Killjoy, Rhand)
Lastwhisper - 1 (Vaimes)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.8
shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Lastwhisper, Rhand)
Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Killjoy, Lissa)
roz_the_eevee - 2 (Dels_8, Gemma)
Rhand - 2 (shadowlancerx, Wheat_Grinder)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Lastwhisper - 1 (Vaimes)
Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.9
Rhand - 4 (Killjoy, Vaimes, Wheat_Grinder, shadowlancerx)
roz_the_eevee - 3 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
shadowlancerx - 1 (Lastwhisper)
Dels_8 - 1 (Rhand)
Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)
Votecount 1.10
roz_the_eevee - 5 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa, Vaimes, Rhand)
Rhand - 3 (Killjoy, Wheat_Grinder, shadowlancerx)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
shadowlancerx - 1 (Lastwhisper)
Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)
Day 1 Final Votecount
roz_the_eevee - 7 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa, Vaimes, Rhand, Wheat_Grinder, Lastwhisper)
Rhand - 2 (Killjoy, shadowlancerx)
Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)
I used to do a lot of VCA, not so much anymore. The weirdest / most notable things for me are
Day end votal deserves special attention. We have four unconfirmed slots on a lynch, with a very high likelihood of there being at least 1 mafia in the grouping.
From this votal alone, with sheep/Lissa both unaligned with Nancy, the likelihood of Nancy being mafia is pretty low. The reason for this is that if Rhand is town, the pool for mafia on the wagon shrinks to sheep/Lissa/Vaimes, and the team would have to be Vaimes/shadow/Nancy for Nancy to be mafia.
There's also a wonky combination of sheep simultaneously looking better if Rhand is v and being much more likely to be a wolf if Rhand is v, which maybe just means that Rhand isn't v?
If Rhand is town, with a townread on Vaimes, the team is pretty much locked as sheep/Lissa/shadow by virtue of PoE and antialigns.
Rhand's flip gives us the most information regardless of his alignment, which makes me want to kill him over anyone else. I'm not really concerned with the fact that it would make sheep the de facto lynch tomorrow, because I don't think there's any world where sheep is town if Rhand is v (he can still be town if the team is Rhand/shadow/Lissa).
[spoiler=legend]~ separates confirmed alignment from lock reads
- equals ~2.5%
)) hard bracket, each hard bracket covers 10-20%
) soft bracket, compartmentalizes groupings within a hard bracket
% is rand (75%)
> PoE marker
[] square bracketed slots are not in the lynch pool, even if they are in the PoE
Here's something to turn my reads on their head.
Nancy has been lying about being V/LA.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=31062
Vote: Nancy
I think this makes shadow mafia, just for the way his Nancy read has evolved, it lines up with him having TMI that she's mafia. This reminds me of my post earlier in the dayphase.
I wouldn't say literally never, but I think it's a good look for Rhand given that shadow doesn't like to bus.
KJ/Dels/Lissa/sheep town, Vaimes dropoff city, Hunger question mark city, Nancy/shadow can die.
I think 450 is lightly townspewing for Rhand, it's intuitive to use a town player's reasoning as support for your case, whereas using a bud's ("look at my partner calling this townie scum") feels awkward.
I ran through Rhand/Hunger/Vaimes looking for antialigns and didn't get any.
Nancy/shadow/Vaimes makes a more sense to me than Nancy/shadow/Hunger on several levels.
Gemma, eevee, Last, Wheat ~ KJ, Dels, Lissa, sheep )) ---- )) ------ % )) > ------ Hunger, Vaimes )) -------- )) ---- shadow ---- )) -------- Nancy ))
Please stop posting.
sheepsaysmeep - 2 (shadowlancerx, Dels_8)
Hunger - 1 (Vaimes)
shadowlancerx - 1 (Hunger)
Dels_8 - 1 (Lissa)
Nancy Drew 39 - 1 (Gemma)
Not Voting - 3 (Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep)
Nancy Drew 39 has been modkilled for willfully not posting in the game thread and for failing to respond to moderator communication. She was Georgy Malenkov - Deputy Party Leader - Mafia Vanilla. Please note that the circumstances are more complex than "Nancy lied about being V/LA", so please wait until it can be discussed after the game before commenting.
Georgy Malenkov - Deputy Party Leader
Mafia Vanilla
Originally in charge of overseeing the records of the party, your connections with the Vladimir Lenin have catapulted you almost to the very top of the pyramid. Stalin himself groomed you as his direct heir, and with his death you are finally ready to achieve your life’s work.
However, even as you prepare to eulogize the former leader alongside the party, you know that succession will not come easily: there are enemies on all sides, and there are already whispers of conspiracy. Which is why you need to strike the first blow.
Gemma has been modkilled for angleshooting and using out of game information, as well as implicitly linking to ongoing games on another site despite the thread having been explicitly warned not to do that. She was Georgy Zhukov - Head of the Red Army - Town Vanilla.
Georgy Zhukov - Head of the Red Army
Vanilla Town
The hero who ended the Great Patriotic War, you led the Red Army into Berlin and personally received the German surrender. This, as you enjoy telling people, makes you kind of a big deal.
While you prefer fighting with guns and bravery rather than words and daggers in backs, you are keenly aware that any power wishing to occupy the power vacuum after Stalin’s death would be very reliant on your support and the support of the Russian military. However, the current conspiracy has not approached, making you very nervous indeed. Prove yourself loyal to the party, and you will surely reap the rewards.
In the interests of game balance, these mod kills will take the place of the lynch and mafia night kill respectively. Day 2 is now over, and Night 2 will be a 24-hour long, no action Night for people to think about the rules.
You are reminded of the following rules:
The sun rises, and the crumpled people in crumpled suits begin to stir. Conversation increases in direct correlation to the amount of coffee passed around, even though the dwindling supplies have done nothing to improve the taste.
"What a terrible set of accidents yesterday"
"Yeah, and the same elevator shaft - those doors really should have been more secure"
"And what sort of person would think that was a good place to store that much rusty, serrated scrap metal?"
"I heard the doctors couldn't even tell which bits belonged to who."
You push away your plate of suddenly unappealing breakfast meats. Closing your eyes, you wait for the vodka to make it's way round to you.
No actions occurred in Night 2.
It is now Day 3, which will end in 14 days on Monday 3rd September at 2200BST. This may be extended if the site difficulties continue significantly.
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. You are reminded to please not discuss the circumstances behind the modkills.
I'll miss you. Talk to you soon.
I'm inclined to agree with most of Gemma's findings. I think Lissa is almost certainly town. I would lean towards sheep being town as well.
The Word of God says that Vaimes is still town. If anyone wants to know why, I can ask for more of a reason.
This leaves my PoE as... literally just Shadow and Hunger. My team says it's 2 out of 3 of Shadow/Hunger/Sheep. I would lean towards Shadow/Hunger, the Sheep stuff really doesn't look like w/w to me, but we technically have 3 lynches left and my team is right that if Shadow/Hunger lynches don't end the game, then it'd have to be Sheep.
Requoting myself - here are all of sheep's posts where he talks about Nancy:
I always thought this was not-w/w because if sheep is scum, it's like... really weird. Why set yourself up as a Nancy expert with a "I can read nancy easily" and then hedge around on it instead of just calling her town? Why make that first statement at all if Nancy is your buddy and you don't know how you'll be able to follow through?
The most telling I think is "1321" where sheep says a town Nancy would be posting more. Sheep literally doesn't realize that Nancy is on V/LA...? Really weird to call Nancy town in one post, then shade her for not posting in the next.
The only way sheep being with Nancy makes sense is if he sets himself up as the Nancy meta reader early without thinking about it, then he feels like he has to call her town because, well, he doesn't want to bus... but then he realizes her posts aren't that towny, so he awkwardly dials back on it? I guess it's possible, it just doesn't seem the most likely to me.
All of Nancy's posts to/about sheep:
204 - That awkward first post, "Well sheep looks like we both rolled town etc"
216 - Uses sheep as an example of someone who is posting towny content
284 - Asks sheep why sheep is townreading her
428 - The interaction with sheep where sheep has a problem with nancy townreading him so confidently, and Nancy dials back
359 - Reaffirms townread on sheep
782 - Lists sheep as a top townread along with Vaimes and Lissa
Just linking these in case anyone wants to look. There's really nothing major here, but that interaction where sheep questions Nancy for the too-confident townread and Nancy dials it back seems pretty unaligned.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
I don't feel the need to requote the Lissa stuff, we all remember it. Does anyone disagree that Nancy/Lissa are not-w/w?
324 - She seems to take an issue with Gemma townreading Shadow for tone. She seems to have a problem with Shadow, could look like discrediting a townread on a townie.
278 - She notes that Gemma/Shadow and Gemma/Rhand interactions ping her. This is pretty weird if her teammates are Shadow and Rhand?
534 - This is her response to Shadow's suspicion - she sort of tries to laugh it off and deflect. It looks like she's trying to avoid suspicion from a town!Shadow?
561 - There's a very minor soft defense of Shadow here - LW says Shadow is attacking him for "not spamming" and Nancy disagrees with it. Also she asks "Why is Vaimes scum?" Note she has both LW and Vaimes as townreads
339 - I think this is literally her only post about Rhand, unless I missed one. She says he's null and asks Gemma why he's scummy.
782 - This is one of her last posts, she has Vaimes, Sheep, Lissa as strongest townreads. I think they're all town? But noting this just for the record since all 3 are still alive. Rule of 3 to your hearts content. =P
That's... all I've got, apparently. She really didn't post anything very helpful in terms of interactions with most people.
In regards to Shadow... requoting my section on Shadow's scumread on Nancy:
This is the part I wanna talk about. Gemma says this looks like TMI. I... don't really agree? I really liked Shadow's read on Nancy, it had way more depth than any of his others. Which... in retrospect, could be exactly TMI. But it's still pretty brutal for a bus. But he didn't ever vote Nancy. But he did say she should be vigged. And then day 2 he kept calling Nancy scum, and eventually Gemma and I convinced him out of it. (whoops lol) Honestly, it looked more like scum trying to push a lynch on a townie and being annoyed it wasn't working.
I think Shadow is probably scum, but we still have to do our due diligence here, I'd feel stupid if Shadow was town and we lynched him and said that his correct push on a scum was bussing/TMI and it wasn't.
Does anyone have any thoughts about Shadow's Nancy push?
Last thing to do is check Rhand's day 1 ISO to see how he talked about Nancy. I actually don't remember. Hunger didn't talk about Nancy yesterday, as far as I recall. I'll do that later/tomorrow, but otherwise... I think we're kind of on track to just... win.
Either way, this is what I feel our starting point is today. Gonna try (really) to cut down this phase, I can't keep going like I did day 2 and for my own sanity / life I'll try to just play in the evenings and take my mind off the game during the day. Idk.
and then i open the thread and see "please dont post" thought i was lynched and freaked out
i have to actually go back to specific pages/reread the game to get reads on individuals it's aids
also don't post more than 3 times in a row or you break the forum's spam rule
the other thing on the docket for today should be what gemma pointed out: shadow's day 1 readslist which had both rhand and nancy at the bottom.
gemma says shadow doesn't bus like that. i've asked my team but they haven't had time to talk about it yet.
personally i don't rule anything out. sometimes, someone who doesn't usually bus, gets into a situation where they do. did rhand start it against shadow first? if so, maybe shadow felt he had to suspect rhand in return? let's look into this.
shadow w
lissa v
dels v
all that i recall?
-who did hunger sub in for
-has anyone claimed anything
will look at the shadow read on nancy
i think him just putting this out there except not actually using it to make a read out of it sort of makes sense as distancing
was there a follow up after he looked at the old nancy game
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/796109-team-mafia-game-1-the-death-of-stalin-day-3?page=10#c475
also while ctrl+fing for nancy i noted 1168 where LW said he'd consider voting nancy, but shadow shot it down by saying there weren't enough people to do it. probably factually true? but worth noting. contrast to 1086 where shadow does consider a CFD on nancy? but says he wants roz to die anyway.
I’m kind of sick and on some cold meds, so I’m not even gonna try looking at things right now. But yeah, sometimes my reads are terrible.