@last
I crumbed it so hard talking about vezok being doc but not having stopped a kill that I might as well have claimed then if you want to check lol
Do think vez is probably just doc since grape wasn't blocked. Could have been redirected but like grape said unlikely if they were holstering
It's not 100% but I'm not lynching him any time soon
Kj is the most important thing to figure out probably. Like he seems town to me but him performing the kill definitely possible
@last
I crumbed it so hard talking about vezok being doc but not having stopped a kill that I might as well have claimed then if you want to check lol
Do think vez is probably just doc since grape wasn't blocked. Could have been redirected but like grape said unlikely if they were holstering
It's not 100% but I'm not lynching him any time soon
Kj is the most important thing to figure out probably. Like he seems town to me but him performing the kill definitely possible
Where was this? Probably something I missed while at work
and def, and we can start by getting @killjoy to claim his ******* role...
I agree making a ride or die decision wrt KJ is probably the most important thing to do today. Other important things are sorting KK, Tom, and Wuffles.
CLAIMS:
Wuffles - Messenger (confirmed did not perform the kill)
Wisp - Tracker (confirmed by knowing I did not perform an action last night and by Osie's screwup)
Grape - Jailkeeper (confirmed by KJ)
Killjoy - Purveyor of baked goods (unconfirmed)
Vezok - Doctor/super low chance of Redirector (confirmed targeted Grape - could only have redirected, not killed)
Tom - Watcher (pretty much confirmed by his knowing Vezok didn't save anyone, unless anyone thinks otherwise )
That leaves KK as either Motivator/RB or Bulletproof/ninja.
Tom, if you're town, I can't believe you tried for that D1 speedlynch. so, So, SO bad. SO BAD. I HATE YOU SO MUCH RIGHT NOW.
Which means that the following people could have performed the kill last night that (if I'm not mistaken) *had* to have bounced off KJ's jail protect (or hit a bulletproof, but let's put that aside as it will become obvious if KK claims bulletproof) are:
Killjoy (roleblocked by JK)
Kamikaze Kazin (question mark)
I'm 99$ certain that this makes KK the lynch by POE for today.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Hey Tom, give us your version of PoE. Who is clear, who is not.
have you tried reading my posts?
Like, as mentioned I want to try to figure you out asap primarily because of jk + lack of kill but there's too many options to figure it mechanically. Behaviorally town but for ~weak reasons.
Last is clear.
Vezok probably just doc. Gambit potential but much lower with targeting confirmation
Decently strong townread on grape but NAI role and I basically always townread grape.
Kj goes here
Kami some real light positives and is the lurker lynch everyone seems to want and I'm just shrugging at it but maybe scum
Wuffles is scummy with an NAI role. There's an element of derp (thought the bottom roles including his can't be scum, wasn't paying enough attention to know he was claiming the kill via mod mistake) that doesn't really do much for me but exists
None of this is new information. And theoretically planning to reread but was sprt of waiting on Kami claim and maybe flip too if that's just happening regardless
Even without Kami claim vezok is down to doctor or redirector, and claiming like that would be crazy unless scum with kj, and if so why redirect to kj?
Maybe if they thought grape was motivator? Or thought he was tracker and kj is ninja? I guess technically jk is the only token that makes that a bad thing (+ tracker if not ninja) so it's not as silly as I thought but that's still only one possible team and someone we have to solve anyway.
Last is tracker and if not blame osi and pretend this game never happened
Grape is JK unless scum with kj. And... why would they skip a kill?
I'm kinda assuming kj and wuffles are as claimed regardless of alignment but both could be the discarded role in a few situations. Either would be outed by not doing it tonight.
Which is why Kami is probably just the lynch today.
But neither of those (or grape) is an AI role. And either could be scum.
Or grape I guess but I don't think so. He was too well positioned to skip a kill imo and if he's scum it has to have been a skipped kill or BP Kami and they were the kill which also doesn't make sense.
So no just not grape.
I got lost in this post.
I already said scum in wuffles/kami/kj and it's still true.
still wish tom had gotten lynched, then i wouldnt even have to think about him, and my poe would be the exact 3 people he listed, but I need to place him there, and his claim doesnt really help, because it just confirms information we already knew.
Grape
and Toms explains why you cant be scum, my mind was blanking before, but because I thought killjoy wasnt scum, it was impossible for you to be scum...
but now im even questioning that...
Okay, I just re-read. Forgive me for Wuffles derp #3, because I managed to miss two of Last's posts where he claimed that the mafia could take two actions - a token action and a mafiakill action in the same night.
So I learned that grape would not know if he was attacked...
And my track can see both the factional kill and the players own ability, if they target different people...
Wisp, just confirming that your role ability states that the mafia can both use their token ability AND kill all in the same night?
If so, that changes things.
It means that:
Tom could have false claimed to have watched grape and at the same time submitted a kill.
Killjoy could have tried to la-baguette Tom AND tried to kill someone but JailFailed.
KK could have done literally anything except target grape (IF Tom is telling the truth, which I'm actually not convinced about here)
If this is true, then the only people who are currently cleared from attempting the kill last night are:
Wisp
Grapefruit (unless KK is exactly bulletproof *and* his vest got shot last night)
Wuffles
Vezok - Unless the scum team is *exactly* vezok/tom, which I think might be possible due to my findings below...
Which means that the shot last night must have come from one of Tom/Kami/KJ.
I re-read the posts leading up to Tom's watcher results post that could have been "breadcrumb" posts. If his "breadcrumb" that Vezok was the only person to target grape last night and so Grape wasn't the NK target in order to "prove" he's watcher (in either post #359 or #365), then why did he say this in 409 (Bolded by me(????
I'm just gonna shut up about Kami in case they flip scum.
I hate reading hydras anyway.
Last town tracker
Vezok is town doctor>>scum and that's the discarded role>>>>>>scum redirector.
Either kj or grape was the nightkill maybe (or BP, or they no killed) but they're kind of my top townreads anyway pending reread.
Kami exists.
Wuffles is messenger.
It doesn't SOUND like you had a watcher result confirming Grape was only targeted by Vezok in this post. It doesn't sound like you're even sure that Grape wasn't the target of the NK in this post.
I don't buy your watcher claim. It's too conveniently slotted right in after everyone (except KK) had claimed their actions or lack thereof.
*****. Actually, that doesn't change *that* much about my POE, but it got me to re-check scumsloger's "breadcrumb", so I maintain the above post is still worth reading. it's 3:35AM and I need to sleep.
Wuffles
its something I know from playing this setup outside of the forum setting, and I also confirmed it was Osie
my role ability does not state it, if you dont believe me, you can ask Osie
If this is true, then the only people who are currently cleared from attempting the kill last night are:
Wisp
Grapefruit (unless KK is exactly bulletproof *and* his vest got shot last night)
Wuffles
Vezok - Unless the scum team is *exactly* vezok/tom, which I think might be possible due to my findings below...
kinda wish that whole fiasco didnt completely confirm me, my death is almost certain now
Grape fruit is only scum if KJ is scum
you can be scum if your ninja, but you wouldve just claimed BP, but again didnt use any ability, so maybe you are ninja...
idk about the Vez/Tom thing, gotta think about it
I guess Tom could be the thief, but you would know if someone stole your token, its also info Osie provides
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
CLAIMS:
Wuffles - Messenger (confirmed did not perform the kill)
Wisp - Tracker (confirmed by knowing I did not perform an action last night and by Osie's screwup)
Grape - Jailkeeper (confirmed by KJ)
Killjoy - Purveyor of baked goods (unconfirmed)
Vezok - Doctor/super low chance of Redirector (confirmed targeted Grape - could only have redirected, not killed)
Tom - Watcher (pretty much confirmed by his knowing Vezok didn't save anyone, unless anyone thinks otherwise )
We are Bulletproof. We are still Bulletproof - we were not shot last night.
We are considering Last to be mod-confirmed.
I’m going to review the possible scenarios and who can be lying.
No NK. How? Four options:
1. Doctor protected the target.
2. Jailer jailed the source.
3. Jailer jailed the target.
4. Mafia intentionally no-killed.
1 means there is a doc. If it wasn’t vezok, he’d have been cc’ed. So it’s vezok, which means vezok is telling the truth. That means grape was the target, so grape is cleared. That means KJ was jailed, so wasn’t the NK origin (this scenario presumes it was specifically the doc that stopped the shot, not the jail). And Wuffles isn’t the NK origin. That leaves only Tom as the possible NK origin. So in scenario 1, the team is Tom + one of Wuffles or KJ.
2 means Grape is clear and KJ is the scum that fired. Could vezok be scum here? He must have targeted Grape, because he and Tom can’t both be scum. He could only be redirector, and that means he would have redirected Grape to KJ, knowing that KJ is firing a kill, and without knowing Grape’s role. Given the potential existence of both Jailer and Tracker, that’s a very high risk action that doesn’t really make sense. So Vezok is likely clear. Last scum could be in Tom, Wuffles.
3 means Grape is still clear, but here KJ is clear, as he was the target of the kill. Now Vezok and Tom could be scum together, meaning there’s no confirmation of Vezok’s target. What happens if Wuffles is scum? Then one of Vezok/Tom must be town. If Tom is town, then Vezok is confirmed to have targeted Grape, and there’s no one who could have shot KJ. So Wuffles+Vezok is impossible here. Wuffles+Tom or Tom+Vezok is possible.
4 is interesting, as it gives the least certainty. Mafia choosing to NK bypasses all the protective and informative roles. This option can only be analyzed from the view of “why would they do this?”. I think the only possible reason is to try to falseclaim a protective role in an attempt to get cleared. This means at least one of Vezok and Grape are scum. We know Grape is the real jailer unless exactly scum with KJ. Grape and Vezok being scum together? Tom is town, confirms Vezok targeting Grape, Vezok must be redirector, so Vezok is redirecting his own scumbuddy? Doesn’t make sense. So not Grape+Vezok. Unfortunately I can’t come up with a lot of other solutions to this scenario. Vezok could be scum here with KJ, Tom, or Wuffles. So could Grape.
So:
Tom + either Wuffles or KJ
KJ + either Tom or Wuffles
Tom + Wuffles or Vezok
One of (KJ, Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok)
That’s all mechanics. Now, behavior.
I strongly doubt that KJ is scum. Especially after the last page’s events. I’m at L-1 and an easy lynch; yet here is KJ pulling off me and looking at tom. I believe scum!KJ could have even gotten away with hammering before I posted.
This removes option 2 completely; turns option 1 into Tom + Wuffles, and leaves 3 unchanged.
I don’t think in this setup, Wuffles busses this hard. It’s a conceivable gambit, but I don’t think they run it. It’s just too dangerous.
This kills option 1, and leaves option 3 as Tom + Vezok.
Option 4 is still open and is (Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok). But it’s also quite risky. I don’t think that mafia need to no-kill in this setup. It gives us too much time; consider that even if we mislynch today, we are still basically on a “day 2” in terms of deaths but with an extra full day of mechanical info.
In conclusion: Tom + Vezok is the scumteam I’m most comfortable with.
Now obviously, this analysis is assuming information that only we know, and it's not a simple from anyone else's perspective. Knowing that we are bulletproof and *didn't* get shot actually simplified analysis a fair bit, which you all can't assume, and we have no way of proving it. So you all need to make your own decisions. If you do choose to lynch us, please review this analysis tomorrow.
I was just about to say there's definitely 2 scum on me rn but I've literally said that, been asked to say it again, and then got lost in thinking about it.
But now that's the 3 voting me so even better.
If it really is kj/Kami that would be quite the loltom even if I technically had a winning poe
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'm pretty sure the scum claimed the town variant of their roles.
Notice how Tom claimed watcher after everyone claimed targets. He's a thief. Vezok is a redirector. Either I was the kill or there wasn't one. Vezok claimed the doc on grape so I wouldn't be confirmed town.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
There are two people voting you Tom. I'm not going to until after I make my case for you two.
I mean that's still "my wagon" whether you voted or not
You've been making a case since midway through day 1. And as wuffles has already shown there isn't one to be made
@wufflss
You know if u actually decided to send ur message u could've been confirmed by two different people, so I still think u not choosing to not use ur ability should warrant a ******* lynch...
Like idc if it's even a mislynch, I just hate u for thinking that was the ok play
And then being up till 3am today but not being around for 1am at EoD to lynch Tom... Like so OoG and if you are town, just no, I hate you
So the theory for a me/vezok team is we both decided not to use our thief and redirect to instead claim in such a way that the other is half outed when the other flips?
Because once we claim watcher and doc we can never use the scum side of the coin.
When kj says it's convenient I claimed after others it doesn't logically follow if that was a planned clearing of vezok and it would still make more sense to call it a me/Kami team I think?
So kj/Kami does actually seem most likely rn.
But if it's not I feel like kami is the more likely wuffles partner?
So I think Kami still the right lynch. Wuffles/kj prove their roles tonight in the off chance they lied (and presumably they would then claim roleblocked and try to 1v1 me)
I've got nothing behaviorally except the recent desperation to lynch me but it does seem like Kami flips scum here most of the time
he did claim Messenger, sometime around the 24 hour remaining mark of day 1
I crumbed it so hard talking about vezok being doc but not having stopped a kill that I might as well have claimed then if you want to check lol
Do think vez is probably just doc since grape wasn't blocked. Could have been redirected but like grape said unlikely if they were holstering
It's not 100% but I'm not lynching him any time soon
Kj is the most important thing to figure out probably. Like he seems town to me but him performing the kill definitely possible
and def, and we can start by getting @killjoy to claim his ******* role...
I agree making a ride or die decision wrt KJ is probably the most important thing to do today. Other important things are sorting KK, Tom, and Wuffles.
Here's the current read on the situation:
CLAIMS:
Wuffles - Messenger (confirmed did not perform the kill)
Wisp - Tracker (confirmed by knowing I did not perform an action last night and by Osie's screwup)
Grape - Jailkeeper (confirmed by KJ)
Killjoy - Purveyor of baked goods (unconfirmed)
Vezok - Doctor/super low chance of Redirector (confirmed targeted Grape - could only have redirected, not killed)
Tom - Watcher (pretty much confirmed by his knowing Vezok didn't save anyone, unless anyone thinks otherwise )
That leaves KK as either Motivator/RB or Bulletproof/ninja.
Tom, if you're town, I can't believe you tried for that D1 speedlynch. so, So, SO bad. SO BAD. I HATE YOU SO MUCH RIGHT NOW.
Which means that the following people could have performed the kill last night that (if I'm not mistaken) *had* to have bounced off KJ's jail protect (or hit a bulletproof, but let's put that aside as it will become obvious if KK claims bulletproof) are:
Killjoy (roleblocked by JK)
Kamikaze Kazin (question mark)
I'm 99$ certain that this makes KK the lynch by POE for today.
I don't understand why everyone is townreadin kj. What makes you so sure he isn't scum?
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
Not Voting: Grapefruit21, KamikazeKazin, Killjoy, tomsloger, vezokpiraka
KamikazeKazin (p) - 6/20, 1416 MST
Killjoy - 6/20, 2241 MST
Lastwhisper - 6/20, 2324 MST
Grapefruit21 - 6/21, 0410 MST
tomsloger - 6/20, 2307 MST
vezokpiraka - 6/21, 0632 MST
Wuffles_II (p) - 6/21, 0558 MST
Check done at 6/21, 0753 MST
With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 Lynch Deadline is July 6th at 1200 (Noon) MST
Probably lynch them today regardless of the claim and what their alignment is
We definitely can't no lynch again already used up all the roles basically
Not really convinced still but they're clearly in the poe which seems pretty tight
And tbf PoE isn't tight till all the scum are dead.
Like, as mentioned I want to try to figure you out asap primarily because of jk + lack of kill but there's too many options to figure it mechanically. Behaviorally town but for ~weak reasons.
Last is clear.
Vezok probably just doc. Gambit potential but much lower with targeting confirmation
Decently strong townread on grape but NAI role and I basically always townread grape.
Kj goes here
Kami some real light positives and is the lurker lynch everyone seems to want and I'm just shrugging at it but maybe scum
Wuffles is scummy with an NAI role. There's an element of derp (thought the bottom roles including his can't be scum, wasn't paying enough attention to know he was claiming the kill via mod mistake) that doesn't really do much for me but exists
None of this is new information. And theoretically planning to reread but was sprt of waiting on Kami claim and maybe flip too if that's just happening regardless
Even without Kami claim vezok is down to doctor or redirector, and claiming like that would be crazy unless scum with kj, and if so why redirect to kj?
Maybe if they thought grape was motivator? Or thought he was tracker and kj is ninja? I guess technically jk is the only token that makes that a bad thing (+ tracker if not ninja) so it's not as silly as I thought but that's still only one possible team and someone we have to solve anyway.
Last is tracker and if not blame osi and pretend this game never happened
Grape is JK unless scum with kj. And... why would they skip a kill?
I'm kinda assuming kj and wuffles are as claimed regardless of alignment but both could be the discarded role in a few situations. Either would be outed by not doing it tonight.
Which is why Kami is probably just the lynch today.
But neither of those (or grape) is an AI role. And either could be scum.
Or grape I guess but I don't think so. He was too well positioned to skip a kill imo and if he's scum it has to have been a skipped kill or BP Kami and they were the kill which also doesn't make sense.
So no just not grape.
I got lost in this post.
I already said scum in wuffles/kami/kj and it's still true.
Grape
and Toms explains why you cant be scum, my mind was blanking before, but because I thought killjoy wasnt scum, it was impossible for you to be scum...
but now im even questioning that...
Wisp, just confirming that your role ability states that the mafia can both use their token ability AND kill all in the same night?
If so, that changes things.
It means that:
Tom could have false claimed to have watched grape and at the same time submitted a kill.
Killjoy could have tried to la-baguette Tom AND tried to kill someone but JailFailed.
KK could have done literally anything except target grape (IF Tom is telling the truth, which I'm actually not convinced about here)
If this is true, then the only people who are currently cleared from attempting the kill last night are:
Wisp
Grapefruit (unless KK is exactly bulletproof *and* his vest got shot last night)
Wuffles
Vezok - Unless the scum team is *exactly* vezok/tom, which I think might be possible due to my findings below...
Which means that the shot last night must have come from one of Tom/Kami/KJ.
I re-read the posts leading up to Tom's watcher results post that could have been "breadcrumb" posts. If his "breadcrumb" that Vezok was the only person to target grape last night and so Grape wasn't the NK target in order to "prove" he's watcher (in either post #359 or #365), then why did he say this in 409 (Bolded by me(????
It doesn't SOUND like you had a watcher result confirming Grape was only targeted by Vezok in this post. It doesn't sound like you're even sure that Grape wasn't the target of the NK in this post.
I don't buy your watcher claim. It's too conveniently slotted right in after everyone (except KK) had claimed their actions or lack thereof.
Unvote, Vote Tomsloger.
its something I know from playing this setup outside of the forum setting, and I also confirmed it was Osie
my role ability does not state it, if you dont believe me, you can ask Osie
If this is true, then the only people who are currently cleared from attempting the kill last night are:
Wisp
Grapefruit (unless KK is exactly bulletproof *and* his vest got shot last night)
Wuffles
Vezok - Unless the scum team is *exactly* vezok/tom, which I think might be possible due to my findings below...
kinda wish that whole fiasco didnt completely confirm me, my death is almost certain now
Grape fruit is only scum if KJ is scum
you can be scum if your ninja, but you wouldve just claimed BP, but again didnt use any ability, so maybe you are ninja...
idk about the Vez/Tom thing, gotta think about it
I guess Tom could be the thief, but you would know if someone stole your token, its also info Osie provides
We are Bulletproof. We are still Bulletproof - we were not shot last night.
We are considering Last to be mod-confirmed.
I’m going to review the possible scenarios and who can be lying.
No NK. How? Four options:
1. Doctor protected the target.
2. Jailer jailed the source.
3. Jailer jailed the target.
4. Mafia intentionally no-killed.
1 means there is a doc. If it wasn’t vezok, he’d have been cc’ed. So it’s vezok, which means vezok is telling the truth. That means grape was the target, so grape is cleared. That means KJ was jailed, so wasn’t the NK origin (this scenario presumes it was specifically the doc that stopped the shot, not the jail). And Wuffles isn’t the NK origin. That leaves only Tom as the possible NK origin. So in scenario 1, the team is Tom + one of Wuffles or KJ.
2 means Grape is clear and KJ is the scum that fired. Could vezok be scum here? He must have targeted Grape, because he and Tom can’t both be scum. He could only be redirector, and that means he would have redirected Grape to KJ, knowing that KJ is firing a kill, and without knowing Grape’s role. Given the potential existence of both Jailer and Tracker, that’s a very high risk action that doesn’t really make sense. So Vezok is likely clear. Last scum could be in Tom, Wuffles.
3 means Grape is still clear, but here KJ is clear, as he was the target of the kill. Now Vezok and Tom could be scum together, meaning there’s no confirmation of Vezok’s target. What happens if Wuffles is scum? Then one of Vezok/Tom must be town. If Tom is town, then Vezok is confirmed to have targeted Grape, and there’s no one who could have shot KJ. So Wuffles+Vezok is impossible here. Wuffles+Tom or Tom+Vezok is possible.
4 is interesting, as it gives the least certainty. Mafia choosing to NK bypasses all the protective and informative roles. This option can only be analyzed from the view of “why would they do this?”. I think the only possible reason is to try to falseclaim a protective role in an attempt to get cleared. This means at least one of Vezok and Grape are scum. We know Grape is the real jailer unless exactly scum with KJ. Grape and Vezok being scum together? Tom is town, confirms Vezok targeting Grape, Vezok must be redirector, so Vezok is redirecting his own scumbuddy? Doesn’t make sense. So not Grape+Vezok. Unfortunately I can’t come up with a lot of other solutions to this scenario. Vezok could be scum here with KJ, Tom, or Wuffles. So could Grape.
So:
Tom + either Wuffles or KJ
KJ + either Tom or Wuffles
Tom + Wuffles or Vezok
One of (KJ, Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok)
That’s all mechanics. Now, behavior.
I strongly doubt that KJ is scum. Especially after the last page’s events. I’m at L-1 and an easy lynch; yet here is KJ pulling off me and looking at tom. I believe scum!KJ could have even gotten away with hammering before I posted.
This removes option 2 completely; turns option 1 into Tom + Wuffles, and leaves 3 unchanged.
I don’t think in this setup, Wuffles busses this hard. It’s a conceivable gambit, but I don’t think they run it. It’s just too dangerous.
This kills option 1, and leaves option 3 as Tom + Vezok.
Option 4 is still open and is (Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok). But it’s also quite risky. I don’t think that mafia need to no-kill in this setup. It gives us too much time; consider that even if we mislynch today, we are still basically on a “day 2” in terms of deaths but with an extra full day of mechanical info.
In conclusion: Tom + Vezok is the scumteam I’m most comfortable with.
Now obviously, this analysis is assuming information that only we know, and it's not a simple from anyone else's perspective. Knowing that we are bulletproof and *didn't* get shot actually simplified analysis a fair bit, which you all can't assume, and we have no way of proving it. So you all need to make your own decisions. If you do choose to lynch us, please review this analysis tomorrow.
- Kami
vote tomsloger
Please hammer. KJ is the last scum. You can lynch whoever today, but KK and KJ are scum together.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
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But now that's the 3 voting me so even better.
If it really is kj/Kami that would be quite the loltom even if I technically had a winning poe
Tom might actually not be scum here, or kami is trying hard to distance
Kami claiming bp likely means he's that or ninja. Which means grape could have been the kill, or kj and he's scum with wuffles
I'm going to work this actually changed nothing
Notice how Tom claimed watcher after everyone claimed targets. He's a thief. Vezok is a redirector. Either I was the kill or there wasn't one. Vezok claimed the doc on grape so I wouldn't be confirmed town.
Kami/KJ
Tom/Vez
Let's see who's playing me for a fool
You've been making a case since midway through day 1. And as wuffles has already shown there isn't one to be made
Am not sure if this is Tom being silly, or a very subtle way of trying to get a no vote from Last... Hmmmmmmm....
-Kazin
You know if u actually decided to send ur message u could've been confirmed by two different people, so I still think u not choosing to not use ur ability should warrant a ******* lynch...
Like idc if it's even a mislynch, I just hate u for thinking that was the ok play
And then being up till 3am today but not being around for 1am at EoD to lynch Tom... Like so OoG and if you are town, just no, I hate you
Because once we claim watcher and doc we can never use the scum side of the coin.
When kj says it's convenient I claimed after others it doesn't logically follow if that was a planned clearing of vezok and it would still make more sense to call it a me/Kami team I think?
So kj/Kami does actually seem most likely rn.
But if it's not I feel like kami is the more likely wuffles partner?
So I think Kami still the right lynch. Wuffles/kj prove their roles tonight in the off chance they lied (and presumably they would then claim roleblocked and try to 1v1 me)
I've got nothing behaviorally except the recent desperation to lynch me but it does seem like Kami flips scum here most of the time
Seriously... Why the **** didn't you use ur ability... I can't even fathom the thought process going into choosing not to use it
@tom
I wish there was a potion of Truth in this game for wuffles to take again
Kami/wuffles
KJ/KAMI
Kami should be the lynch today, no matter what
But I want to be home for it