Well Iso being wrong on Tubba as mason is actually a point in his favor. If he was scum, his sole purpose would've been to catch the masons and the connection between me and Senteza and Dota and Senteza were pretty obvious. If he cared enough to look for it, he would've most probably found them and shoot Senteza.
I'm down to just lynch tubba and figure stuff tomorrow.
vote tubba
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@KJ why is sticking to the mason cover scummy? Also I kind of hate how you're building your entire worldview around the tubba read. Vaimes and Rod are both town because of it and Iso and I are there to make your unaligned pairs work. And there isn't a ton of meat to your tubba read. I'm not disagreeing with your conclusion just surprised that you think what you've shown is strong enough to build your entire worldview around. Was I wrong about you?
@Tubba your frustration there reads like cftwr. If you flip scum I'm moving Iso and DBS up to Mason level clears. And yeah Iso got a lot wrong and was a bit harsh to Ruma. But he wasn't the only one who did either of those things (*raises hand*). As for DBS being clear I get that you googled the site, but you weren't doggedly posting that the masons could somehow be scum when the setup was confirmed to have 3 scum and we have 13 players in the game. Like if we lose to that derp clear then whatever. But I'm choosing to believe that thought would never occur to scum to fake.
Well Iso being wrong on Tubba as mason is actually a point in his favor. If he was scum, his sole purpose would've been to catch the masons and the connection between me and Senteza and Dota and Senteza were pretty obvious. If he cared enough to look for it, he would've most probably found them and shoot Senteza.
I'm down to just lynch tubba and figure stuff tomorrow.
vote tubba
Also like what is the value to him deciding to out your buddies there when he could have just shot Dota. If he hadn't said it I doubt you would of claimed it today.
Well Iso being wrong on Tubba as mason is actually a point in his favor. If he was scum, his sole purpose would've been to catch the masons and the connection between me and Senteza and Dota and Senteza were pretty obvious. If he cared enough to look for it, he would've most probably found them and shoot Senteza.
I'm down to just lynch tubba and figure stuff tomorrow.
vote tubba
You're still assuming he figured it all out. What if you just coughed it up?
My frustration isn't due to being "caught". Mostly it's at my poor play, and the spot it's put my team in. I'm fine with dying, but what will we gain from my flip? You have players arguing that the game is solved, it doesn't matter blah blah. That's just not true. If my flip is required to prove that, so be it.
It's annoying that we won't lose to being outplayed, but to my poor play.
It’s certainly not impossible that Iso’s gambling. It would be genius and right up his ally: townfirm self by leaving the Masons alone, cruise to victory.
The NK is no longer useful for town. The Masons are all going to die. So if Iso is scum, he doesn’t have to deal with “why r u alive!!!”
The only drawback is that Iso’s buddies have got to be in the PoE, but the risks in this gambit far outweigh losing some of your team imo.
Point being yes, it is dumb and dangerous to treat the game as solved. I do get the ugly feeling that most of the people in Iso’s PoE are town, but it’s hard to bounce back from the mild humiliation of wanting to kill the Mason team in broad Daylight.
I don’t really know where I’m going with this. I’m doing a double at work so I’ll come back to this later with a functioning brain.
No one seems to have an idea of why dan died, and my “Sentenza is scum” theory is wrong.
The only options I see are Masonhunting, deliberate wine, or a newbie scumteam.
I don’t think anyone seriously thought dan was a Mason, unless they read his “I’m totally VT leave me alive scumteam!” post and got overly paranoid.
If Iso was scum and he wanted to kill someone to do this weird gambit, ganderin is not the target I believe he would have taken. You and grape are higher priority targets.
This gambit is so much wine, but even so in the worst case scenario there's a 3 person LyLo with Iso/{mikey/dbs}/{Vaimes/grape/rodemy}. That should be solvable even if Iso is the last scum.
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No one seems to have an idea of why dan died, and my “Sentenza is scum” theory is wrong.
The only options I see are Masonhunting, deliberate wine, or a newbie scumteam.
I don’t think anyone seriously thought dan was a Mason, unless they read his “I’m totally VT leave me alive scumteam!” post and got overly paranoid.
If Iso was scum and he wanted to kill someone to do this weird gambit, ganderin is not the target I believe he would have taken. You and grape are higher priority targets.
This gambit is so much wine, but even so in the worst case scenario there's a 3 person LyLo with Iso/{mikey/dbs}/{Vaimes/grape/rodemy}. That should be solvable even if Iso is the last scum.
Your entire game state is based on Iso knowing who all the masons were. He clearly didn't. YOU outed the other masons. You need to own that and figure out how to clean it up.
Unlikely conspiracy: Iso is scum and Dan nightkill was to narrow mason PoE. Upon Dan flipping town, iso knows the last mason is either tubba or sentenza. He made this play because his wolf team was getting scum read and had to railroad the game for a chance to win in f3. I bet if iso is scum his two partners are in the PoE and he'll try to navigate us toward the three that aren't.
To be fair, it was clearer D2 that Sentenza was a Mason, though I would have come to that same conclusion based on her D1 play if I weren’t a big dummy.
But yeah, Iso only found vezok and DoTA. I guess it’s possible he thought dan was the third and shot at the Masonread he was less certain on?
It feels like a bit of a stretch, but it's the only realistic alternative to "iso is town and won the game singlehandedly"
If iso/killjoy/dbs is a thing there may only be one partner in the PoE.
I'll think more about this scenario but if I see it doesn't work then whatever remains no matter how improbable must be the truth
Maybe I'm just salty that iso is better than solving at me so I have to think he's scum
So. I'm still in the camp that there were two scum on the wagon and one off, unless the scum are exactly in tubba/dawn/mikey. I doubt it's exactly those three because because I doubt Mikey is scum.
we can also say there were 2 masons on the wagon. vc analysis works more with teams afaik - not specific alignments.
as for your reads.. the most I can agree on is the read on me. I haven't done much, and the only significant thing is my derping - due to me being new to this kind of setup....or the mason shenanigans. but, it also feels like an obvious read.
what is the Tubba/Iso/Grape scumteam based on? from your post, it looks like they're all just hard to read, without actual connections.
why didn't you mention it when Grape kept up the mason cover longer than you expected?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I don't know what you're asking. I'd love it if Grape were townfirmed, but I don't recall stating he should be?
In this magical scenario that keeps me up at night, scum!Iso thinks that the entire Mason team is in vezok/DoTA/dan/Tubba. He can't decide if dan or Tubba is the third Mason because lol lack of interactions/content, so he shoots one of them. If dan had actually been a Mason, then Iso wouldn't have been able to claim he knew the Mason team /and/ didn't kill any of them, so I dunno what world he'd hypothetically be spinning toDay.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Vaimes: You are being way too paranoid. Iso being scum is such a slim chance it's not worth discussing. Let's lynch tubba and think what to do tomorrow.
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Does anyone need more time or should I switch votes
Well I'm not going to vote myself...
Listen guys, there's probably one vocal scum over the last few posts and two that are laying low. Unfortunately they don't need to work at burying me. So Vaimes or Mikey as the vocal one. My guess is Vaimes/Iso/Dawn. I've stated my thoughts on Vaimes, Iso buried a townie for a mislynch, tricked the masons out of hiding and went back into the shadows just in time for Dawn to start talking. Empty talking with no content, no questions and no pushes at that. The game is NOT solved, there are too many clears that aren't based on anything tangible. Dawn got a free pass from an absolutely nothing post. Look at who was pushing that to be a clear if she flips scum.
I'm going to reread to see if there's any other similar pairing actions that I can pick up in light of the mason claims, there must be something but scum hasn't really had to work very hard this game.
Despite my earlier post Tubba kind of doesn't read as a dying wolf. I don't see him having no impact all game and then trying to spam the thread as his ship is sinking. Still prefer a Rodemy lynch. Not opposed enough to a tubba lynch to fight it more than this, just wanted to throw it out there.
I honestly cannot fathom Killjoy being scum here. I just can't. I came out of my argument with Killjoy feeling him change his mind on me, moreso than him being like "hm, I probably can't get Vaimes lynched, I should stop doing this."
And no, Tubba doesn't look at all like dying scum. It wouldn't be the first time town gave up to the point of encouraging their own lynch, but ???
like where are the witches??????? I wanted this game to be easymode so bad and now that the Masons are outed everything just seems more confusing
We have guaranteed scum in Iso/Rod/Grape. And honestly? Even everything that's happened, I think Iso is the most likely to flip scum. Maybe I'm just having what is possibly my worst game ever, but his PoE absolutely reeks of being majority town. It was like, [Vaimes or Sentenza, Rod, Grape or Killjoy, Tubba]. Or rather it was Tubba after Sentenza was explicitly outed. And uh...I'm town, Sentenza's town, and the rest are my townreads and Tubba, who doesn't feel like scum on the verge of death.
But if I gave Iso the benefit of the doubt, I think I'd only lynch Grape first. Rod feels (or felt) genuine, and I don't reeeally think he'd be like "oh that's okay I'm busy IRL go ahead and lynch me" as scum? That's a thin one, I have no idea how Rod's mind works.
I honestly cannot fathom Killjoy being scum here. I just can't. I came out of my argument with Killjoy feeling him change his mind on me, moreso than him being like "hm, I probably can't get Vaimes lynched, I should stop doing this."
And no, Tubba doesn't look at all like dying scum. It wouldn't be the first time town gave up to the point of encouraging their own lynch, but ???
like where are the witches??????? I wanted this game to be easymode so bad and now that the Masons are outed everything just seems more confusing
I think Killjoy's had a lot of stances / posts this game that look like they're supposed to be reasonable, but on reflection don't quite jive with how I think a villager would actually be thinking about this game / setup.
I'm down to just lynch tubba and figure stuff tomorrow.
vote tubba
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@Tubba your frustration there reads like cftwr. If you flip scum I'm moving Iso and DBS up to Mason level clears. And yeah Iso got a lot wrong and was a bit harsh to Ruma. But he wasn't the only one who did either of those things (*raises hand*). As for DBS being clear I get that you googled the site, but you weren't doggedly posting that the masons could somehow be scum when the setup was confirmed to have 3 scum and we have 13 players in the game. Like if we lose to that derp clear then whatever. But I'm choosing to believe that thought would never occur to scum to fake.
Also like what is the value to him deciding to out your buddies there when he could have just shot Dota. If he hadn't said it I doubt you would of claimed it today.
You're still assuming he figured it all out. What if you just coughed it up?
Never mind I think I figured it out.
Caught For The Wrong Reasons?
It's annoying that we won't lose to being outplayed, but to my poor play.
You think /town/ will lose due to your play?
The NK is no longer useful for town. The Masons are all going to die. So if Iso is scum, he doesn’t have to deal with “why r u alive!!!”
The only drawback is that Iso’s buddies have got to be in the PoE, but the risks in this gambit far outweigh losing some of your team imo.
Point being yes, it is dumb and dangerous to treat the game as solved. I do get the ugly feeling that most of the people in Iso’s PoE are town, but it’s hard to bounce back from the mild humiliation of wanting to kill the Mason team in broad Daylight.
I don’t really know where I’m going with this. I’m doing a double at work so I’ll come back to this later with a functioning brain.
The only options I see are Masonhunting, deliberate wine, or a newbie scumteam.
I don’t think anyone seriously thought dan was a Mason, unless they read his “I’m totally VT leave me alive scumteam!” post and got overly paranoid.
So it was probably a deliberately This Is Weird shot.
If Iso was scum and he wanted to kill someone to do this weird gambit, ganderin is not the target I believe he would have taken. You and grape are higher priority targets.
This gambit is so much wine, but even so in the worst case scenario there's a 3 person LyLo with Iso/{mikey/dbs}/{Vaimes/grape/rodemy}. That should be solvable even if Iso is the last scum.
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Someone break up my posts.
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We should definitely put more actual thought into toDay’s lynch. I’m just lazy and sad.
Also I’m no longer doing a double so I can vomit more words sooner than expected!
suffice to say it’s worth checking out if Iso endgames and PoE is weird
Your entire game state is based on Iso knowing who all the masons were. He clearly didn't. YOU outed the other masons. You need to own that and figure out how to clean it up.
But yeah, Iso only found vezok and DoTA. I guess it’s possible he thought dan was the third and shot at the Masonread he was less certain on?
If iso/killjoy/dbs is a thing there may only be one partner in the PoE.
I'll think more about this scenario but if I see it doesn't work then whatever remains no matter how improbable must be the truth
Maybe I'm just salty that iso is better than solving at me so I have to think he's scum
as for your reads.. the most I can agree on is the read on me. I haven't done much, and the only significant thing is my derping - due to me being new to this kind of setup....or the mason shenanigans. but, it also feels like an obvious read.
what is the Tubba/Iso/Grape scumteam based on? from your post, it looks like they're all just hard to read, without actual connections.
why didn't you mention it when Grape kept up the mason cover longer than you expected?
if it was a newbie scumteam, I doubt they would NK a lurker first.
Be grateful, always."
Be grateful, always."
Also why is this not an Iso thing?
In this magical scenario that keeps me up at night, scum!Iso thinks that the entire Mason team is in vezok/DoTA/dan/Tubba. He can't decide if dan or Tubba is the third Mason because lol lack of interactions/content, so he shoots one of them. If dan had actually been a Mason, then Iso wouldn't have been able to claim he knew the Mason team /and/ didn't kill any of them, so I dunno what world he'd hypothetically be spinning toDay.
I read this as "could we safely townfirm grape or you" instead of "how likely is that to happen"
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Vezok is probably
I thought it didn't matter, don't be so paranoid.
Well I'm not going to vote myself...
Listen guys, there's probably one vocal scum over the last few posts and two that are laying low. Unfortunately they don't need to work at burying me. So Vaimes or Mikey as the vocal one. My guess is Vaimes/Iso/Dawn. I've stated my thoughts on Vaimes, Iso buried a townie for a mislynch, tricked the masons out of hiding and went back into the shadows just in time for Dawn to start talking. Empty talking with no content, no questions and no pushes at that. The game is NOT solved, there are too many clears that aren't based on anything tangible. Dawn got a free pass from an absolutely nothing post. Look at who was pushing that to be a clear if she flips scum.
I'm going to reread to see if there's any other similar pairing actions that I can pick up in light of the mason claims, there must be something but scum hasn't really had to work very hard this game.
FTR I still prefer a Rod lynch to a tubba lynch but feel pretty happy with either.
I hate this game.
He said he knew dota and sentz were masons when he clearly didn't
And no, Tubba doesn't look at all like dying scum. It wouldn't be the first time town gave up to the point of encouraging their own lynch, but ???
like where are the witches??????? I wanted this game to be easymode so bad and now that the Masons are outed everything just seems more confusing
Ruma (7) - Vaimes, Sentenza, Vezok, Iso, Rodemy, dan, grape
Vezok (2) - Ruma, Mikey
[Mikey (2) - Dawn, dota
Vaimes (1) - Killjoy
Not voting: tubba
-
We have guaranteed scum in Iso/Rod/Grape. And honestly? Even everything that's happened, I think Iso is the most likely to flip scum. Maybe I'm just having what is possibly my worst game ever, but his PoE absolutely reeks of being majority town. It was like, [Vaimes or Sentenza, Rod, Grape or Killjoy, Tubba]. Or rather it was Tubba after Sentenza was explicitly outed. And uh...I'm town, Sentenza's town, and the rest are my townreads and Tubba, who doesn't feel like scum on the verge of death.
But if I gave Iso the benefit of the doubt, I think I'd only lynch Grape first. Rod feels (or felt) genuine, and I don't reeeally think he'd be like "oh that's okay I'm busy IRL go ahead and lynch me" as scum? That's a thin one, I have no idea how Rod's mind works.
:I
Could you point to some post numbers?