with scum flip and counterwagon voter flip, scum should be in Manti(3rd vote) or Bear(counterwagon voter). Pod selfpreserved, not divert, and bussing is a bad strat here - he's probably town.
Vote: Chromanticore
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Was gonna be all over bears today if rhand had flipped town. Felt like trying not to take responsibility.
No reason to avoid responsibility to mislynch a partner though
I feel like bears wouldn't make a night kill that's that bad.
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
So you go into the night with two players off scum wagon and you're scum on the scum wagon. One player on the wagon is unkillable. Which would only leave you two other choices.
So the question becomes why wouldn't Manti kill Dawning or Pod, why wouldn't Dawning kill Manti or Pod, and why wouldn't Pod kill Dawning or Manti?
Again, obvious answer is Pod killed Kamikaze because he suspected him, but then again, so did I. This was my pool yesterday:
So Manti, and Dawning don't gain much from killing me, and it's a wash for Pod.
Kami didn't think Manti was scummy when Tom thought he was. Manti voted dawning and was one of the few players suspecting him. Kami posted this however:
@bears where you thinking about voting and why haven't you?
what's a w/w wagon
dislike dbs's post but can't put my finger on why
That's also the last time Kami posted.
Hmm. I don't believe Manti was that suspicious of Pod. Both him and Kami seemed to think that Dawning was scummy though. I didn't think that Dawning was particularly scummy but I did think Pod was. Dawning was also starting to push a world where I was team mates with Rhand even though I put him to L-1 with Tom not voting and scum reading Rhand. That's a pretty precarious position to put my partner, and odd to think that I'm protecting him by saying I didn't want the day to end. I suppose that might be a way for me to defend my partner, but I think it was pretty clear I was willing to kill him yesterday.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
Rhand and Pod took the lead. both appeared once. out of them both, Pod's actions are leaning towards selfpreservation.
could be Pod? or Rhand was trying reverse psychology. Bear didn't want Rhand hammered?
Rhand and Pod took the lead. both appeared once. out of them both, Pod's actions are leaning towards selfpreservation.
could be Pod? or Rhand was trying reverse psychology. Bear didn't want Rhand hammered?
noted that Rhand hasn't voted anyone yet.
What conclusions can you draw from he above?
Rhand and Bear probable teamwork. though I don't see problems with Bear yet. sooo.. maybe Pod.
Dawning also suspected Pod by the looks of it. So from a scum!Pod perspective, why doesn't he kill Dawning who was on the scum wagon and suspecting him?
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
And to address the first part of your reply, it makes little sense to make that nightkill from my perspective because it leaves me as the only unconfirmed off of a scum wagon. If I was scum I almost always kill you because of the unconfirmed players, you were the first voter on Rhand's wagon (or rather anyone that voted Rhand before you changed their vote before changing back). That's actually a good point though. Let me see how many votes were on Rhand when you voted him.
Yeah okay. Tom voted Rhand, and then switched off. You were the next voter on him. So you make the most sense as a night kill from almost everyone's perspective. Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you.
This setup is bad for busing. I feel bears as wolf kills either me because he knows he can't kill me during the day, or Dawn and uses Pod or kami or I as his mislynch. Killing kami makes no sense for bears -- it puts him alone off wagon which is a bad look.
Bears, Kami, and I are the three most reasonable lynches, all things considered. Why does bears kill into that?
Pod's actions would be ~rand in the night afaict. Being "just pod" males by far the most sense.
If wolves kill successfully in the night, we enter LyLo.
Ifnyou are town and being mislynched, do not claim. If you claim, you are game throwing.
glgl
Talking about me, I either kill bears in respect and lynch between the others -- which I wouldn't do because loltom and I like bears. Or I kill between pod and dawn, probably pod because lolmanti
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
And to address the first part of your reply, it makes little sense to make that nightkill from my perspective because it leaves me as the only unconfirmed off of a scum wagon. If I was scum I almost always kill you because of the unconfirmed players, you were the first voter on Rhand's wagon (or rather anyone that voted Rhand before you changed their vote before changing back). That's actually a good point though. Let me see how many votes were on Rhand when you voted him.
Yeah okay. Tom voted Rhand, and then switched off. You were the next voter on him. So you make the most sense as a night kill from almost everyone's perspective. Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you.
sick x post
Bears if you're the last wolf you're not allowed to kill me in the night
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
And to address the first part of your reply, it makes little sense to make that nightkill from my perspective because it leaves me as the only unconfirmed off of a scum wagon. If I was scum I almost always kill you because of the unconfirmed players, you were the first voter on Rhand's wagon (or rather anyone that voted Rhand before you changed their vote before changing back). That's actually a good point though. Let me see how many votes were on Rhand when you voted him.
Yeah okay. Tom voted Rhand, and then switched off. You were the next voter on him. So you make the most sense as a night kill from almost everyone's perspective. Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you.
leaving yourself as the only one alive not on a scum wagon is a good way to victimize yourself via NKA. it makes sense.
I'm probably kept alive to be pocketed, if you say I was the optimal NK choice. why do you say "Manti might not kill you" though? we still haven't figured him out yet.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I'm confident that mafia Manti could dunk on any of the remaining townsfolk and for that reason would kill bears because he respects me and is the most likely to call out my *****.
NKA is sure to be garbage in this setup.
Especially because Kami was never w/w with rhand
Idk where I want to go today yet, but thought I'd get that out there
Also remember scum knows kamis role (since they successfully killed him)
So for us me to be in danger tonight we'd have to mislynch the townie that shared his role and the scum would have to roll the dice on that 1/3 chance (really it's 1/4 But that includes the chances of lynching scum today which would be game over so that doesn't matter)
So we've basically got 2 chances at the last, maybe 3 if they don't guess right on kill tonight (which is not quite a guess because monty hall or whatever)
So that's nice
Main points on each person as I see it:
Pod had a pretty gross post about not voting rhand because game too small. Reeked of distancing
Manti sheeped me on everything yesterday except rhand, and only voted him after the lynch was ~decided
Dawning went hard on preflip associating people with rhand
Bears was the only living person NOT on rhand, but in a townie way actually. Should probably start over on him anyway since I spent d1 thinking he was someone else
Just to confirm for my own meta purposes...
Bearsquared is not beruru.
She already has an mtgs account under a different bear related name so I'm not even sure why I thought that
Chromanticore I'm assuming is mantichora. Who I think ive been in mashes with but no regular games (or if I have he wasn't memorable in them don't be offended I smoke a lot of weed when I play short phases)
Pod I think is an old school mtgser? Before my time. Don't actually know him either way.
Dawning I've played with and meta dived on her homesite and I habe a basic ish understanding of her play.
Rhand was by far the person in this game I knew best.
Kami is reasonably new here/to me. Don't know where he came from but prolly doesn't matter
Alright looking for teams (and nonteams) specifically
KA not scum with bears, Manti, rhand. >rand with pod. Seeing nothing indicative with dawn
Rhand has the dubious distinction of making sense with ~everyone.
A couple people sort of just... talked about something else when I was trying to make him a wagon. Or said something negative about him but didn't push.
The "id be voting him if" from pod, and that being the only thing Manti didn't sheep me on all game are what sticks out the most though.
Those are the only ones that really effected my overall reads. Taking them into account I'm at
If you'd voted pod, you and rhand would have ~always been the next two lynches imo
And, like, my opinion matters a fair amount itg lol
I think if you're scum it was maybe slightly suboptimal to vote rhand there but not by more than a few percentage points
The point is, either it's bears...
Or somebody voted their buddy yesterday
And neither of us thinks it's bears iirc
So I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make
3rd vote logic is actually inverted in this game because it's a -1. He also at that point could have voted me, and instead chose to vote the scum. I mean, Tom, you might be right that they'd be the next two lynches, but I still think you take the two kills n1 and then hope that something changes. What you're saying is a possibility, but I don't think it's likely.
kinda forgot this. Tom was willing to hammer anyone and Manti chose scum. you got a point there.
Vote: bearsquared
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Dawn are you gonna look at, like, behavior at some point?
Or just sticking with votes?
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
thanks to Pod for noting a point:
#110 Bear didn't want Rhand hammered
#147 talks about voting Rhand but doesn't do anything (kinda confusing if Manti jumped the vote for the cred or not)
I'm sold on Bear's Rhand vote as appeasement and not real. not sure why Pod was left alive though, maybe Kamikaze was a threat as a more-active-than-Pod player.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Dawn are you gonna look at, like, behavior at some point?
Or just sticking with votes?
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
thanks to Pod for noting a point:
#110 Bear didn't want Rhand hammered
#147 talks about voting Rhand but doesn't do anything (kinda confusing if Manti jumped the vote for the cred or not)
I'm sold on Bear's Rhand vote as appeasement and not real. not sure why Pod was left alive though, maybe Kamikaze was a threat as a more-active-than-Pod player.
Rhand and Pod took the lead. both appeared once. out of them both, Pod's actions are leaning towards selfpreservation.
could be Pod? or Rhand was trying reverse psychology. Bear didn't want Rhand hammered?
noted that Rhand hasn't voted anyone yet.
What conclusions can you draw from he above?
Rhand and Bear probable teamwork. though I don't see problems with Bear yet. sooo.. maybe Pod.
I don't want Rhand hammered because I thought a hammer that early would be bad. I think Pod is at L-1 currently, and I don't want Pod to be hammered yet either. I'd rather let this day get closer to deadline before we end it.
So for starters, I didn't want a hammer at that point in the game period. I said something similar about Pod. It had nothing to do with Rhand, and was related to whoever was at L-1 at the time.
Dawn are you gonna look at, like, behavior at some point?
Or just sticking with votes?
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
thanks to Pod for noting a point:
#110 Bear didn't want Rhand hammered
#147 talks about voting Rhand but doesn't do anything (kinda confusing if Manti jumped the vote for the cred or not)
I'm sold on Bear's Rhand vote as appeasement and not real. not sure why Pod was left alive though, maybe Kamikaze was a threat as a more-active-than-Pod player.
Fwiw id expect scumrhand to be a bit more aggro, but that's unreliable when he hasn't even been here
Would hammer him or pod if they get another vote
If Rhand isn't posting again this day phase I think I'm willing to put him to rest early.
If I'm partners with Rhand here, I don't say the above and not vote his ass for the credit. I don't even say I'm willing to end the day early period; it's specifically Rhand. What is my motivation as scum to say "I'm willing to maj my partner specifically" and then not vote him for credit knowing he's going to flip wolf?
Pod's posts today have been a lot better than DBS's, and after looking over all DBS's posts again, I'm not super impressed.
vote dawningbluesky
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
I wouldn't have blamed you if you lynched me yesterday. It's really more my fault for the inactivity. And I was right on rhand, but that's not really worth anything except to my ego.
Anyway.
The kill looks bad for me and good for bears. There's an argument to be made that he doesn't want me lynched today to keep me round to be lynched tomorrow, but I don't really get why he'd do that. Of course I'm assuming that the kill was done for wagon related reasons rather than something else stupid.
@bears: The overthinking was referring to #74. I don't really get what you saw in that, and I find that kind of trying to see a pattern more indicitive of scum because they have a greater overview of the game (due to knowing who the scum is).
3rd vote logic is actually inverted in this game because it's a -1. He also at that point could have voted me, and instead chose to vote the scum. I mean, Tom, you might be right that they'd be the next two lynches, but I still think you take the two kills n1 and then hope that something changes. What you're saying is a possibility, but I don't think it's likely.
DBS makes most sense as scum, but then a first vote in the wagon is fine, and his reasons are good. After that he mostly seemed to try and hunt the other scum, and it seems a bit crude, so maybe that was an attempt to tie others (me mostly, but also bears) to it.
Since nothing new has happened I guess I'll elaborate on some stuff I said yesterday. I liked this post from Pod specifically. It seems show some genuine critical thinking from him, and it's all reasonable.
I had some mind meld-y moments with Manti today, and I haven't been getting any scum vibes from him. When he's wolfed against the last 5 games or whatever it's been, I normally get some inkling that he's a wolf but I really haven't this game.
Coming back to DBS, I don't think she's been that townie at any point, and she hasn't had any posts that have made me go "that's villagery". As I talked about in previous posts, the thing that makes the least sense of from a scum!DBS is voting first on her partner Rhand, but I think everything else does. With less than 200 posts, I can quickly re-evaluate every day I come into the thread, and I keep settling on DBS being the least townie, and the player that makes the most sense to be the last wolf.
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
I never liked your response to me in #99 ("You don't need to find two scum today. You only need to find one.").
there is a difference in finding 2 vs 3 scum, and there is also a difference in finding 2 vs 1 scum.
you're looking for a team, not someone who is individually scummy.
I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered, but during the time he was talking he didn't interact with you though he replied others (even Manti).
remember that we are looking for a team. if Rhand flipped town, we would be starting over from scratch by now.
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
out of your recent 'clarifications' you never clarified on this. why did you say I could be town with the way I voted, and talked to me as if Manti was scum?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
I never liked your response to me in #99 ("You don't need to find two scum today. You only need to find one.").
there is a difference in finding 2 vs 3 scum, and there is also a difference in finding 2 vs 1 scum.
you're looking for a team, not someone who is individually scummy.
I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered, but during the time he was talking he didn't interact with you though he replied others (even Manti).
remember that we are looking for a team. if Rhand flipped town, we would be starting over from scratch by now.
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
out of your recent 'clarifications' you never clarified on this. why did you say I could be town with the way I voted, and talked to me as if Manti was scum?
Looking for explicitly "a team" is bad. You hunt for wolves. Do that well and you naturally get the whole team.
Also can I just point out how scummy "I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered" sounds as you try to say that not interacting with Rhand was scummy. I think Rhand only interacted with Tom once, Manti once, and Pod twice. He didn't interact with Kami, and Kami flipped town so next point.
We would not be starting over today. Pre-association reads are bad. Develop a POE and start lynching the names at the bottom.
I don't understand what you're asking with the last question. I can't find a post where I said you could be town from the way you voted but you're not lock scum for me, just most likely, so of course you could have voted the way you did as town, but I don't see how that's relevant. When did I talk to you as if Manti was scum and what's the relevance? Am I spewing Manti wolf in a game with two wolves and one of them dead?
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
I never liked your response to me in #99 ("You don't need to find two scum today. You only need to find one.").
there is a difference in finding 2 vs 3 scum, and there is also a difference in finding 2 vs 1 scum.
you're looking for a team, not someone who is individually scummy.
I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered, but during the time he was talking he didn't interact with you though he replied others (even Manti).
remember that we are looking for a team. if Rhand flipped town, we would be starting over from scratch by now.
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
out of your recent 'clarifications' you never clarified on this. why did you say I could be town with the way I voted, and talked to me as if Manti was scum?
Looking for explicitly "a team" is bad. You hunt for wolves. Do that well and you naturally get the whole team.
Also can I just point out how scummy "I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered" sounds as you try to say that not interacting with Rhand was scummy. I think Rhand only interacted with Tom once, Manti once, and Pod twice. He didn't interact with Kami, and Kami flipped town so next point.
We would not be starting over today. Pre-association reads are bad. Develop a POE and start lynching the names at the bottom.
I don't understand what you're asking with the last question. I can't find a post where I said you could be town from the way you voted but you're not lock scum for me, just most likely, so of course you could have voted the way you did as town, but I don't see how that's relevant. When did I talk to you as if Manti was scum and what's the relevance? Am I spewing Manti wolf in a game with two wolves and one of them dead?
when you have no starting point, then yes you look for individuals. when you get flips, you look for potential teammates. if you aren't looking for a team, but individual faults, you're obviously not using what you have gained from a flip - it doesn't advance town's wincon.
have I said I didn't want to be in PoE yet? Rhand responded to everyone at some point, except you and me. if you think that's scummy, then you should know my thoughts on you as well.
your #168:
1. "you were the first voter on Rhand's wagon (or rather anyone that voted Rhand before you changed their vote before changing back). That's actually a good point though."
pulling back from calling me 'the last wolf'
2. "Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you."
you say it as if Manti is scum.
Okay so I can see where there was some confusion here. #99 was made day 1. Trying to make pre-flip association reads is how you get burned. You find a wolf, and then go from there. That's why I reject the notion that we'd be starting over today if Rhand was town because your entire game shouldn't be predicated on the alignment of a single player. You clearly use a player's alignment on the following day to adjust your interpretations of interactions in retrospect.
POE here is the same as a reads list with this few players. You were at the bottom of it, but I'm starting to reconsider given that you're the only one here. To jump to your last point, what you think a wolf should be doing here is not the same as what they are doing. I do not think a wolf that just had their partner dunked on on day 1 is always going to have the motivation to show up and start posting. There are a lot of players that lose WIM and don't do what they need to do to appear wolfy.
With regards to Rhand responding to everyone but you and I, we know that there's at least one town between us. I didn't see him interact with Kami at all either which would mean Rhand didn't interact with at least two town. In a larger game I think you could look into partners avoiding each other and things like that, but I would be surprised if Rhand had more than ten posts. There's not enough of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion.
1. Ah. You misunderstood what I was getting at. I was saying that in a world where you were town, you would make the most sense as the night kill.
2. Same thing here. I presume that Manti is a wolf and try to see if the game state makes sense from that perspective.
Let me go back and read Pod again. Dude made one post today that was okay and the NK would be pretty Level 1, but some times it really is just that obvious.
ok
puzzle-solving the wagons though
if Pod was town, he was a better kill than Kamikaze
(both wagons will get good suspicion)
that's my only issue with Pod
hmm.. Vote: Pod360
should be interesting
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Pod was literally never a good kill.
Would have been absolutely shocked if it was anyone but bears/kami tbh
Kill analysis still terrible in this game
iirc you said you know how scum can win. but you're not scum now... why would you be shocked and scum follow your plans??
I'm kinda settled on it being Pod or Manti I guess.
reason I say "interesting" is because I already have a vote on me. wolf will likely jump on my wagon, rather than divert.
I think you're being disingenuous or naive here.
says the person who appears only when someone voted them, and found a wagon to put at L1. you don't even seem convinced that I'm the last wolf, so why do you vote me?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I hope DBS is the scum, because if he isn't and we lynch him, I'm definitely going down tomorrow so we're screwed.
FWIW, I'm a pretty habitual lurker. I wouldn't read too much into me not posting much (or do, I can't stop you).
I think night kill analysis is pretty wifom, but not pointless.
I think it's probably DBS. I don't get massive scum vibes though. There's stuff he's saying that's more just wrong rather than looking like it's an attempt to mislead. And he doesn't really have the attitude of a solo scum who's about to be lynched for losing the game.
Bears, imho, is the other one it could be, and I don't really think he's done anything scummy really either, bar a kind of fluffy push on dbs.
Vote: Chromanticore
Be grateful, always."
No reason to avoid responsibility to mislynch a partner though
My gut says Manti too
I put the hammer onto scum d1 in a setup where you cannot bus
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
So you go into the night with two players off scum wagon and you're scum on the scum wagon. One player on the wagon is unkillable. Which would only leave you two other choices.
So the question becomes why wouldn't Manti kill Dawning or Pod, why wouldn't Dawning kill Manti or Pod, and why wouldn't Pod kill Dawning or Manti?
Again, obvious answer is Pod killed Kamikaze because he suspected him, but then again, so did I. This was my pool yesterday:
{tomsloger}
{Chromanticore, dawningbluesky, KamikazeArchon}
{Pod360, Rhand}
So Manti, and Dawning don't gain much from killing me, and it's a wash for Pod.
Kami didn't think Manti was scummy when Tom thought he was. Manti voted dawning and was one of the few players suspecting him. Kami posted this however:
That's also the last time Kami posted.
Hmm. I don't believe Manti was that suspicious of Pod. Both him and Kami seemed to think that Dawning was scummy though. I didn't think that Dawning was particularly scummy but I did think Pod was. Dawning was also starting to push a world where I was team mates with Rhand even though I put him to L-1 with Tom not voting and scum reading Rhand. That's a pretty precarious position to put my partner, and odd to think that I'm protecting him by saying I didn't want the day to end. I suppose that might be a way for me to defend my partner, but I think it was pretty clear I was willing to kill him yesterday.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
Dawning also suspected Pod by the looks of it. So from a scum!Pod perspective, why doesn't he kill Dawning who was on the scum wagon and suspecting him?
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
Be grateful, always."
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
Yeah okay. Tom voted Rhand, and then switched off. You were the next voter on him. So you make the most sense as a night kill from almost everyone's perspective. Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you.
Bears, Kami, and I are the three most reasonable lynches, all things considered. Why does bears kill into that?
Pod's actions would be ~rand in the night afaict. Being "just pod" males by far the most sense.
If wolves kill successfully in the night, we enter LyLo.
Ifnyou are town and being mislynched, do not claim. If you claim, you are game throwing.
glgl
Talking about me, I either kill bears in respect and lynch between the others -- which I wouldn't do because loltom and I like bears. Or I kill between pod and dawn, probably pod because lolmanti
sick x post
Bears if you're the last wolf you're not allowed to kill me in the night
I'm probably kept alive to be pocketed, if you say I was the optimal NK choice. why do you say "Manti might not kill you" though? we still haven't figured him out yet.
Be grateful, always."
NKA is sure to be garbage in this setup.
Especially because Kami was never w/w with rhand
Idk where I want to go today yet, but thought I'd get that out there
Also remember scum knows kamis role (since they successfully killed him)
So for
usme to be in danger tonight we'd have to mislynch the townie that shared his role and the scum would have to roll the dice on that 1/3 chance (really it's 1/4 But that includes the chances of lynching scum today which would be game over so that doesn't matter)So we've basically got 2 chances at the last, maybe 3 if they don't guess right on kill tonight (which is not quite a guess because monty hall or whatever)
So that's nice
Main points on each person as I see it:
Pod had a pretty gross post about not voting rhand because game too small. Reeked of distancing
Manti sheeped me on everything yesterday except rhand, and only voted him after the lynch was ~decided
Dawning went hard on preflip associating people with rhand
Bears was the only living person NOT on rhand, but in a townie way actually. Should probably start over on him anyway since I spent d1 thinking he was someone else
Just to confirm for my own meta purposes...
Bearsquared is not beruru.
She already has an mtgs account under a different bear related name so I'm not even sure why I thought that
Chromanticore I'm assuming is mantichora. Who I think ive been in mashes with but no regular games (or if I have he wasn't memorable in them don't be offended I smoke a lot of weed when I play short phases)
Pod I think is an old school mtgser? Before my time. Don't actually know him either way.
Dawning I've played with and meta dived on her homesite and I habe a basic ish understanding of her play.
Rhand was by far the person in this game I knew best.
Kami is reasonably new here/to me. Don't know where he came from but prolly doesn't matter
Why do I hammer a wolf there over a villager?
And, like, my opinion matters a fair amount itg lol
I think if you're scum it was maybe slightly suboptimal to vote rhand there but not by more than a few percentage points
The point is, either it's bears...
Or somebody voted their buddy yesterday
And neither of us thinks it's bears iirc
So I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make
I've heard the "third vote theory" before and it ranges from "silly but >rand correct" in large games to "full on stupid" in a 7 player game
You're not clear for your vote, but neither am specifically scumreading you for it
kinda forgot this. Tom was willing to hammer anyone and Manti chose scum. you got a point there.
Vote: bearsquared
Be grateful, always."
Or just sticking with votes?
thanks to Pod for noting a point:
#110 Bear didn't want Rhand hammered
#147 talks about voting Rhand but doesn't do anything (kinda confusing if Manti jumped the vote for the cred or not)
I'm sold on Bear's Rhand vote as appeasement and not real. not sure why Pod was left alive though, maybe Kamikaze was a threat as a more-active-than-Pod player.
Be grateful, always."
So for starters, I didn't want a hammer at that point in the game period. I said something similar about Pod. It had nothing to do with Rhand, and was related to whoever was at L-1 at the time.
If I'm partners with Rhand here, I don't say the above and not vote his ass for the credit. I don't even say I'm willing to end the day early period; it's specifically Rhand. What is my motivation as scum to say "I'm willing to maj my partner specifically" and then not vote him for credit knowing he's going to flip wolf?
vote dawningbluesky
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
dawningbluesky (1): bearsquared
Not voting: Chromanticore, Pod360, tomsloger
With 5 players, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline for Day 2 is Wednesday, February 14 at 11:59:59 PM EST.
Day 2 Timer
Vaguely plan to be the last voter today
I had some mind meld-y moments with Manti today, and I haven't been getting any scum vibes from him. When he's wolfed against the last 5 games or whatever it's been, I normally get some inkling that he's a wolf but I really haven't this game.
Coming back to DBS, I don't think she's been that townie at any point, and she hasn't had any posts that have made me go "that's villagery". As I talked about in previous posts, the thing that makes the least sense of from a scum!DBS is voting first on her partner Rhand, but I think everything else does. With less than 200 posts, I can quickly re-evaluate every day I come into the thread, and I keep settling on DBS being the least townie, and the player that makes the most sense to be the last wolf.
there is a difference in finding 2 vs 3 scum, and there is also a difference in finding 2 vs 1 scum.
you're looking for a team, not someone who is individually scummy.
I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered, but during the time he was talking he didn't interact with you though he replied others (even Manti).
remember that we are looking for a team. if Rhand flipped town, we would be starting over from scratch by now.
out of your recent 'clarifications' you never clarified on this. why did you say I could be town with the way I voted, and talked to me as if Manti was scum?
Be grateful, always."
Looking for explicitly "a team" is bad. You hunt for wolves. Do that well and you naturally get the whole team.
Also can I just point out how scummy "I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered" sounds as you try to say that not interacting with Rhand was scummy. I think Rhand only interacted with Tom once, Manti once, and Pod twice. He didn't interact with Kami, and Kami flipped town so next point.
We would not be starting over today. Pre-association reads are bad. Develop a POE and start lynching the names at the bottom.
I don't understand what you're asking with the last question. I can't find a post where I said you could be town from the way you voted but you're not lock scum for me, just most likely, so of course you could have voted the way you did as town, but I don't see how that's relevant. When did I talk to you as if Manti was scum and what's the relevance? Am I spewing Manti wolf in a game with two wolves and one of them dead?
when you have no starting point, then yes you look for individuals. when you get flips, you look for potential teammates. if you aren't looking for a team, but individual faults, you're obviously not using what you have gained from a flip - it doesn't advance town's wincon.
have I said I didn't want to be in PoE yet? Rhand responded to everyone at some point, except you and me. if you think that's scummy, then you should know my thoughts on you as well.
your #168:
1. "you were the first voter on Rhand's wagon (or rather anyone that voted Rhand before you changed their vote before changing back). That's actually a good point though."
pulling back from calling me 'the last wolf'
2. "Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you."
you say it as if Manti is scum.
lurking at this stage isn't a scumtell, since a lone wolf would need to appear town even more than usual if they want to win.
Be grateful, always."
POE here is the same as a reads list with this few players. You were at the bottom of it, but I'm starting to reconsider given that you're the only one here. To jump to your last point, what you think a wolf should be doing here is not the same as what they are doing. I do not think a wolf that just had their partner dunked on on day 1 is always going to have the motivation to show up and start posting. There are a lot of players that lose WIM and don't do what they need to do to appear wolfy.
With regards to Rhand responding to everyone but you and I, we know that there's at least one town between us. I didn't see him interact with Kami at all either which would mean Rhand didn't interact with at least two town. In a larger game I think you could look into partners avoiding each other and things like that, but I would be surprised if Rhand had more than ten posts. There's not enough of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion.
1. Ah. You misunderstood what I was getting at. I was saying that in a world where you were town, you would make the most sense as the night kill.
2. Same thing here. I presume that Manti is a wolf and try to see if the game state makes sense from that perspective.
Let me go back and read Pod again. Dude made one post today that was okay and the NK would be pretty Level 1, but some times it really is just that obvious.
puzzle-solving the wagons though
if Pod was town, he was a better kill than Kamikaze
(both wagons will get good suspicion)
that's my only issue with Pod
hmm..
Vote: Pod360
should be interesting
Be grateful, always."
Would have been absolutely shocked if it was anyone but bears/kami tbh
Kill analysis still terrible in this game
Huh. Why would they always kill off wagon?
I'm kinda settled on it being Pod or Manti I guess.
though less on Manti because:he didn't vote me or claim anything when I voted him. it matches up with that .-.
Be grateful, always."
That's you and kami
reason I say "interesting" is because I already have a vote on me. wolf will likely jump on my wagon, rather than divert.
personally find it hard to believe Manti is wolf, especially with the way he said town shouldn't claim if lynched + didn't vote me back.
Bear I'm not sure about, but it's the misunderstanding I suppose.
Pod joined my wagon since it already had Bear's vote. more reasons in 1st paragraph.
I'm convinced it's Pod.
Be grateful, always."
Pod360 (1): dawningbluesky
Not voting: Chromanticore, tomsloger
With 5 players, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline for Day 2 is Wednesday, February 14 at 11:59:59 PM EST.
Day 2 Timer
Be grateful, always."
Why isn't it ever Chromanticore in your mind?
211 is pretty scummy though
As was that one late rvs post about rhand