Like really unless everyone is off base which is possible because that's what the Osie kill suggests then lynching Dan and then Vaimes probably wins the game for town. Unless someone who isn't Dan, Cyan, or Vaimes wants to make a really compelling case on why I shouldn't believe KJ is the cop (which is right now the least confirmed of the town slots) or why Arc would derail a mislynch to push his buddy let's focus on what's relevant here and that has nothing to do with set up gaming based on KJ's targetting restriction.
Anyway I'll actually look at Dan and dig up those posts like Vaimes asked me to tomorrow. Pretty sure I want to lynch Dan more but might as well see why I liked him.
Main Vaimes alarm bell right now is his besides the Vezok town read is his comment towards me EoD1 saying something to the affect of you're defending me now but you might have to die at some point in between self votes. Just doesn't strike me as townie thinking. But i could very well be missing something.
Being willing to self-vote, in that situation in particular, shows a town mentality because it's providing some concrete information/reads for the town to work with. A VT should always be willing to die.
FWIW, my NKing Osie, when I had been setting him up as a mislynch candidate from the middle of Day 1, seems largely counterproductive from a scum perspective. There's a "scum hammering his buddy that wasn't going to wiggle out of the lynch to stymie discussion+gain towncred" narrative there.
@Grape: There's no way we are lynching KJ until the last possible moment. I think there is a possibility of him being scum, but that gets sorted out as a last resort.
@ALL: I think we really only have a few options. I still think my set up theory is right, making it either Vaimes or Arc. If it's not, we can throw in Cyan and Dan, but for now, KJ has a clear on one of the two. So really there are three options for today's Lynch: Vaimes, Arc or Cyan/Dan.
I have to finish my re-read and then I'll plug it all in.
Ok, so we start Day 2 with the GJ kill. Third party flip is pretty useless to analyze. Over night I posted a lot with Osi and he was responsive unlike Night 2. I was forming a case on GJ in our chat, most of it was that he wasn't really doing anything and pushing Osi for not doing anything. At the last minute I came to the epiphany: "Oh shoot, just thought of something about GJ's gambit. It was a Freudian slip! He made that "Gambit" because as scum he was afraid he'd actually post on the wrong thread!" Turns out I was wrong about that.
My summary of Osi's comments that night:
Pissed about No Lynch
Vaimes is GOAT or Scute (I don't know what that means)
Undecided on Grape & Cyan
KJ & Arc Prob Town
Vezok & Dan bugged him
SJT & Vaimes light town
I asked him to clarify on Dan because I was town reading him and he said he felt detached.
Unfortunately, I was cut off from the world going into Day 2 (massive mudslides killed our cell phones, cable and internet for about a week). Grape comes right out of the gates with a vote on Vezo. Osi follows suit, so does Arc. Vezo chimes in and in #283 he calls Arc and Cyan town and Vaimes and Grape scum. In the next post he really tears into Grape and Vaimes, pushing cases on both. I think this is scum desperation not posturing and bus facades. This would make me think Vaimes and Grape move up the likely town list and Arc and Cyan down. Though Dan baulks at the speed of the wagon. It still looks like a legit Vaimes vs. Vezo at this point in the day.
Grape #179 "I feel kind of lost to start the day because I spent most of my night arguing that GJ wasn't town for his play and researching around that."
Vaimes #192 "Also, I make that kill 1% of the time because I was going to hang GJ by his balls toDay."
#Metoo
So this all lines up. What doesn't really line up is who WOULD shoot GJ? I guess besides Vezo would be the more appropriate question.
Who's played with Vezo before? What's his meta like?
Vaimes makes a hot take that Dan could be scum in #293
Cyan goes back to Vaimes in #296, which is weird, but still kind of lines up with Vezo's town reads. Vaimes and Cyan go a bit toe to toe.
KJ #315 "I feel like I can possibly garner some info out of the reactions to GJ's gambit since we now know he was town.", but GJ wasn't town. This is troublesome. Like I said, no way KJ is lynched until LyLo if he survives that long, but who ever does go into LyLo please consider this. GJ would only register as town to scum that killed him, but this was discussed earlier too.
Dan #335 again defends Vezo
In pretty quick succession Vezo gets strung up after KJ's claim. Those not voting Vezo at the end of the day were: ganderin_dan, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, vezokpiraka, Vaimes. Do we have scum in that group or did someone bus Vezo?
Night 2, I try to talk to Osi, but the only post he made was about him not believing Vezo's 3 scum buddies comment. I already talked about my setup spec, so I won't go into that again. Osi gets killed, which makes me sad because it was a great way for me to stay engaged over night. I hate to say, but with out that I am very unlikely to spend time over game nights reading the game. So here we are Day 3.
Grape, I can’t help but feel you are jumping though hoops to scumread me here.
“Vaimes’ EOD was clearly to get vezok to endgame! His self-vote was a ploy! But Arc tried to lynch vezok so he’s clear!”
It boggles my mind that YOU are the one who refused to vote for me to get a lynch D1 and now you somehow think I’m mafia. So are you mafia, or are you being deliberately thick? ‘Cause I’m getting some really creepy “keep mislynches open” vibes here.
I'm not understanding why me saying "now we know that GJ was town" is at all troubling? Like I said, it meant that we now know he wasn't scum. Unless you envision a world where the mod lied to us in GJ's game leaving post.
So I strongly believe Vaimes is clear. I think Arc is also clear.
Grape is clear because of Mod confirmation. I do not believe there's a godfather because of my limitations.
So it's likely between Terry, Cyan, Dan. I feel like Terry... isn't scum with Vezok? Maybe?
It's probably either Cyan or Dan. I remember Cyan saying something about how Vezok has similar thoughts about some townie earlier, and that feels like a weird connection to make to a scumbuddy. So I'd say Dan>Cyan>Terry.
Also, now's the part where I awkwardly say that I'm actually only one shot. By not saying that I was trying to bait the kill last night. I also decided to not say today to bait it today on the assumption that PoE wouldn't be so nailed down today. I feel like we're pretty close to getting the scum. It's probably just Dan. We will see.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'm not understanding why me saying "now we know that GJ was town" is at all troubling? Like I said, it meant that we now know he wasn't scum. Unless you envision a world where the mod lied to us in GJ's game leaving post.
So I strongly believe Vaimes is clear. I think Arc is also clear.
Grape is clear because of Mod confirmation. I do not believe there's a godfather because of my limitations.
So it's likely between Terry, Cyan, Dan. I feel like Terry... isn't scum with Vezok? Maybe?
It's probably either Cyan or Dan. I remember Cyan saying something about how Vezok has similar thoughts about some townie earlier, and that feels like a weird connection to make to a scumbuddy. So I'd say Dan>Cyan>Terry.
Also, now's the part where I awkwardly say that I'm actually only one shot. By not saying that I was trying to bait the kill last night. I also decided to not say today to bait it today on the assumption that PoE wouldn't be so nailed down today. I feel like we're pretty close to getting the scum. It's probably just Dan. We will see.
This all sounds like complete bull*****. I absolutely don't believe that you are one shot AND could only investigate within a few cells of yourself.
@Vaimes I'm making cases in paranoid open minded public fashion since I'm conf!town at this point. I think you're unlikely to be scum, but if Dan flips town I don't want people to ignore you just because Vezok pushed you. Also for the record that reply was very jumpy for someone trying to claim they are heavily town.
Didn't notice Vezok townreading Cyan amidst his combined push on Vaimes/Grape. I think it's a little ballsy to associate yourself with your partner in such a spot he was in. Feeling a bit better about him now.
I agree KJ's role sounds weird but both Vezok's and GJ's flips were weird so whatever.
Okay I think a better question at this point is does anyone think that Dan isn't the last scum? Like actively believe he's town?
@Vaimes I looked for the posts and they were mostly just his catchup posts. He didn't go all in on Terry like some people did (post 50) and I liked the way he interacted with me, but that's less telling with the additional information we have now.
@GF were you aware of KJ's restriction at any point before he publicly stated it? I see Vaimes beat me to the question, but it looks like you missed it. Also, I don't think you answered my question to you in 386.
@Cyan Why did you feel like my post in 386 was vote-worthy?
@KJ Why hide the one-shot? Also, why don't you think Terry and Vezok can be partners?
@Arc no thoughts on my response to you? I also disagree on your stance on the Vezok/Cyan interaction. It doesn't strike me as ballsy, but advisable. I think it's common sense to look first at the people that didn't interact with the known scum as much, and active engagement with your scumbuddies can help mask such analysis.
@Terry I believe I've answered Vezok-related meta questions in multiple posts, if you care to read back. Also, would you both answer my question in 386 without reference to the setup, as well as provide current-Day reads as opposed to recaps on previous events?
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I certainly would've been more confident in KJ's claim if it had been out front, instead of letting us proceed through toDay thinking that the PoE was going to be shorter than it was. There's a very real, albeit unlikely, world where he made the scumslip and concocted this difficult to counter-claim on the fly to get himself out of hot water. Our lack of other power thus far contributes to making this unlikely, IMO, but KJ in an endgame needs to be considered on behavioral merit as opposed to his claim in a vacuum.
I don't know. I feel like I've been more productive for the town than a variety of other players (at minimum, the other two people we are considering for the lynch currently), answered all questions asked of me as honestly as possible, and am just guilty of a bad read on Vezok/the circumstances of the Vezok/Vaimes situation at the end of D1/D2. I'm still not entirely sure why Vezok was even selected as a lynch, reading back. But I have nothing to point to in an effort to validate my towniness beyond the general reception of the town before we knew Vezok was scum. It also feels like a multiple of my trains of thought have been generally disregarded by the town (even prior to the Vezok lynch), so that can't be helping public opinion.
I'll continue trying to produce as long as the Day continues, and be sure to put up a revised T/S list+vote before the end of Day if I am lynched. Do what you must. Call it defeatism, but I'm not sure what to do differently to change the status quo, as I accept that I am a reasonable (albeit wrong) lynch candidate.
EBWODP @KJ Why didn't you think the PoE would be so concise today, regardless of hiding the restriction? You say that you believe Arc/Vaimes are clear, so doesn't that only leave the three of Cyan, Terry and myself?
@Dan: I've read back through this game more than most. My specific concern with his meta was not about playing scummy or not, it was does he bus or buddy?
I had thought about KJ's claiming coming under immense pressure, but Grape said he claimed N1 to him. Grape can you confirm?
RE: Dan #386: When I said it had to be Arc/Vaimes it was 100% based off set up spec and assuming KJ was actually being truthful about his claim, which he wasn't. My set up spec is completely thrown out the window now and, for the most part, we are seeing pretty strong questioning from everyone.
I told him like... end of N2. I was pretty much convinced I was gonna die. Then he asked me who my target was and I realized I'd never told him I was one shot, so I did it then.
I actually also forgot that Docs were Things That Exist so I was actually a lot less likely to die than I'd thought?
Also, I claimed to Grape literally right after I got the result on him. So, a few seconds into beginning of D2.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Dan my Cyan read is that he's the second most likely to be scum but has played today in a town + way. He's also done a couple things in our private chat I liked. I don't have much to expand on because at this point the game is really PoE to me and given the pressure KJs come under I am pretty sure I die after Arc and before him.
@all yes KJ told me he was one shot. He told me this during N2 when I was asking about targets. I agree he's not clear but he looks better than Dan at this point.
KJ being scum would be stupid, I think, since he called Grape town when Vezok was building a case on Grape. Even if there's no scum chat for communication I find this unlikely; KJ could just see who Vezok was pushing and not disrupt them.
FWIW, my NKing Osie, when I had been setting him up as a mislynch candidate from the middle of Day 1, seems largely counterproductive from a scum perspective. There's a "scum hammering his buddy that wasn't going to wiggle out of the lynch to stymie discussion+gain towncred" narrative there.
IMO, Osie was the one person who was never scum after that quickhammer. So, killing him should be kind of a no-brainer for any scum.
And to answer your earlier post, yeah, my logic is "result-based" right now because I feel strongly about the pool I've narrowed it down to, and what I said seems to fit a logical scumteam.
Oh, hang on.
KJ could've had more checks. Which would be incredibly dangerous to keep alive for a scum inside their range. And I suppose dangerous as well since it'd narrow the lynch pool if any more town checks came out of it? Though they could kill the checks, and/or keep KJ alive untit F3.
This is (part of) why I can't play mafia anymore. Dealing with, 'I lied about/poorly played my role in completely anti-town ways but it's really my role honest!' is just..I'm over it.
That's the thing I'm not sure what KJ has done that isn't townie here. Yes he was the obvious kill but not killing him spills wine like what Arc is drinking right now. The fact that he was open about the limitations of his role to me (minus the targeting range) and protected me despite Vezok pushing me as an option makes me think he's town.
@Cyan what exactly is anti town about not claiming to be 1 shot to attempt to draw a NK? I don't see your reasoning at all here.
@Arc yes they should have feared the check, but as you said Osie's hammer made him very heavily town. And was basically never getting lynched. I'm never getting lynched at this stage because having a godfather with the limitations KJ has claimed is a bad joke. And you're never getting lynched. Scum is desperate and doesn't have many options for places to push leaving KJ alive to let us drink wine and possibly lynch him this phase is a reasonable if high risk play.
@Terry because Arc is better at this than me and KJ isn't going to get killed given the suspicion people are putting him under and the fact that he's 1 shot.
There's a lot of WIFOM around Arc's thought process, but a few things do ring true.
I don't see any motivation for scum in any position to leave a cop alive that hasn't claimed any restrictions, because at BEST for the scum it narrows the mislynch pool, and at worst KJ was lying about his limitation and he has range over all the cells. There's just so much risk involved in leaving KJ alive.
To setupgame a bit of my own, however, KJ's role doesn't seem that ridiculous to me. We've seen no other power from the town so far, and how much more power can the town have against a two-man scumteam that was also facing against a neutral that had to actively work against the scum, especially with one scum being vanilla?
If I was scum, based on the above logic, I'm coming for KJ regardless last Night. Worst case, I'd maybe expect a bodyguard, which could fit with the flavor. Guy that jumps in front of another individual in a prison scrum to take the shiv for his buddy that's almost out on parole, or somesuch.
@Arc Osie was very likely to be town, agreed, but not more likely than GF or KJ before KJ came clean about his limitations. GF was probably the most clear individual after KJ's claim, even after the derphammer.
@GF at risk of answering a question for Cyan, we can proceed through toDay with a different mentality knowing that our mislynch pool is one higher than we anticipated it being. Can you go a bit more into depth regarding your townread on him? You can omit your private chat if you feel more comfortable doing so.
Now I can’t help but feel like we’re /supposed/ to focus on slash lynch dan toDay.
In a vacuum, I think Arc is our best bet for scum.
I’m town, I’ve come back to Cyan being town, I’m starting to feel like dan is trying to figure things out rather than save himself or throw shade on someone else, KJ is the only PR claim with an innocent check on Grape, and Terry I really have nothing on except that I don’t think the entire scumteam would bank on being able to lynch me D1 and then...keep scumreading me when it clearly didn’t work out for vezok.
Yeah, Arc saved me, but if I mock Grape for a second, “it could have been a ploy to look town!”
Another reason that is weak and pretty unrelated to anyone’s alignment, but I think when everyone seems a little bit too town for there to be a clear-cut lynch, there needs to be some spice to it in order for it to be a scum lynch. If that makes sense.
What's your rationale on Cyan, Vaimes? And anything you've got towards either alignment on Terry (I'm looking for behavior tells here) besides what you mentioned?
I understand your rationale in the last sentence there. When nothing makes sense, you have to think outside of the box. I accept the possibility that Cyan could very reasonably be scum, but my initial "Krajtell" is really keeping me from wanting to lynch him. The frustration seems so genuine.
@KJ you've got an unanswered question from me in 426/7.
There's a lot of WIFOM around Arc's thought process, but a few things do ring true.
I don't see any motivation for scum in any position to leave a cop alive that hasn't claimed any restrictions, because at BEST for the scum it narrows the mislynch pool, and at worst KJ was lying about his limitation and he has range over all the cells. There's just so much risk involved in leaving KJ alive.
To setupgame a bit of my own, however, KJ's role doesn't seem that ridiculous to me. We've seen no other power from the town so far, and how much more power can the town have against a two-man scumteam that was also facing against a neutral that had to actively work against the scum, especially with one scum being vanilla?
Scumslip! GG! The only scum that flipped wasn't vanilla.
Hah, you're right. I thought to myself "how often do towns no-lynch? Vezok's ability basically never does anything" when I had it backwards. Even said it in my chat with Arc.
Probably just need to be done with me at this point to eliminate any odds that it actually is a scumslip.
@Dan: I hid the one shot initially to let the scum think I was a full cop and provoke them to kill me since I only had one shot and was basically useless after that.
It's not impossible that Vezok and Terry are a team, but interactions between them seem to suggest that they weren't.
Re; POE: Yeah, I believe they're clear. I didn't think everyone else would. Rather, I thought there'd be more doubt.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Dan: I hid the one shot initially to let the scum think I was a full cop and provoke them to kill me since I only had one shot and was basically useless after that.
It's not impossible that Vezok and Terry are a team, but interactions between them seem to suggest that they weren't.
Re; POE: Yeah, I believe they're clear. I didn't think everyone else would. Rather, I thought there'd be more doubt.
I just caught Dan with a scumslip. Are you just ignoring that?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
He's saying that I am calling myself a vanilla mafia, since I said there was only one vanilla mafia and we haven't seen one yet.
It's not just that you are calling yourself vanilla, I'm saying you are set up speccing town PRs based on the fact that you are a Vanilla Mafia. That's why it was a slip. You based your set up spec off the knowledge that you are VS and you slipped when you said:
We've seen no other power from the town so far, and how much more power can the town have against a two-man scumteam that was also facing against a neutral that had to actively work against the scum, especially with one scum being vanilla?
Main Vaimes alarm bell right now is his besides the Vezok town read is his comment towards me EoD1 saying something to the affect of you're defending me now but you might have to die at some point in between self votes. Just doesn't strike me as townie thinking. But i could very well be missing something.
FWIW, my NKing Osie, when I had been setting him up as a mislynch candidate from the middle of Day 1, seems largely counterproductive from a scum perspective. There's a "scum hammering his buddy that wasn't going to wiggle out of the lynch to stymie discussion+gain towncred" narrative there.
@ALL: I think we really only have a few options. I still think my set up theory is right, making it either Vaimes or Arc. If it's not, we can throw in Cyan and Dan, but for now, KJ has a clear on one of the two. So really there are three options for today's Lynch: Vaimes, Arc or Cyan/Dan.
I have to finish my re-read and then I'll plug it all in.
My summary of Osi's comments that night:
Unfortunately, I was cut off from the world going into Day 2 (massive mudslides killed our cell phones, cable and internet for about a week). Grape comes right out of the gates with a vote on Vezo. Osi follows suit, so does Arc. Vezo chimes in and in #283 he calls Arc and Cyan town and Vaimes and Grape scum. In the next post he really tears into Grape and Vaimes, pushing cases on both. I think this is scum desperation not posturing and bus facades. This would make me think Vaimes and Grape move up the likely town list and Arc and Cyan down. Though Dan baulks at the speed of the wagon. It still looks like a legit Vaimes vs. Vezo at this point in the day.
Grape #179 "I feel kind of lost to start the day because I spent most of my night arguing that GJ wasn't town for his play and researching around that."
Vaimes #192 "Also, I make that kill 1% of the time because I was going to hang GJ by his balls toDay."
#Metoo
So this all lines up. What doesn't really line up is who WOULD shoot GJ? I guess besides Vezo would be the more appropriate question.
Who's played with Vezo before? What's his meta like?
Vaimes makes a hot take that Dan could be scum in #293
Cyan goes back to Vaimes in #296, which is weird, but still kind of lines up with Vezo's town reads. Vaimes and Cyan go a bit toe to toe.
KJ #315 "I feel like I can possibly garner some info out of the reactions to GJ's gambit since we now know he was town.", but GJ wasn't town. This is troublesome. Like I said, no way KJ is lynched until LyLo if he survives that long, but who ever does go into LyLo please consider this. GJ would only register as town to scum that killed him, but this was discussed earlier too.
Dan #335 again defends Vezo
In pretty quick succession Vezo gets strung up after KJ's claim. Those not voting Vezo at the end of the day were: ganderin_dan, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, vezokpiraka, Vaimes. Do we have scum in that group or did someone bus Vezo?
Night 2, I try to talk to Osi, but the only post he made was about him not believing Vezo's 3 scum buddies comment. I already talked about my setup spec, so I won't go into that again. Osi gets killed, which makes me sad because it was a great way for me to stay engaged over night. I hate to say, but with out that I am very unlikely to spend time over game nights reading the game. So here we are Day 3.
“Vaimes’ EOD was clearly to get vezok to endgame! His self-vote was a ploy! But Arc tried to lynch vezok so he’s clear!”
It boggles my mind that YOU are the one who refused to vote for me to get a lynch D1 and now you somehow think I’m mafia. So are you mafia, or are you being deliberately thick? ‘Cause I’m getting some really creepy “keep mislynches open” vibes here.
So I strongly believe Vaimes is clear. I think Arc is also clear.
Grape is clear because of Mod confirmation. I do not believe there's a godfather because of my limitations.
So it's likely between Terry, Cyan, Dan. I feel like Terry... isn't scum with Vezok? Maybe?
It's probably either Cyan or Dan. I remember Cyan saying something about how Vezok has similar thoughts about some townie earlier, and that feels like a weird connection to make to a scumbuddy. So I'd say Dan>Cyan>Terry.
Also, now's the part where I awkwardly say that I'm actually only one shot. By not saying that I was trying to bait the kill last night. I also decided to not say today to bait it today on the assumption that PoE wouldn't be so nailed down today. I feel like we're pretty close to getting the scum. It's probably just Dan. We will see.
This all sounds like complete bull*****. I absolutely don't believe that you are one shot AND could only investigate within a few cells of yourself.
Unvote, Vote KJ
I wasn't told initially, but was told during N2.
@Cyan lol
@Vaimes I'm making cases in paranoid open minded public fashion since I'm conf!town at this point. I think you're unlikely to be scum, but if Dan flips town I don't want people to ignore you just because Vezok pushed you. Also for the record that reply was very jumpy for someone trying to claim they are heavily town.
disregard
I agree KJ's role sounds weird but both Vezok's and GJ's flips were weird so whatever.
@Vaimes I looked for the posts and they were mostly just his catchup posts. He didn't go all in on Terry like some people did (post 50) and I liked the way he interacted with me, but that's less telling with the additional information we have now.
@Cyan Why did you feel like my post in 386 was vote-worthy?
@KJ Why hide the one-shot? Also, why don't you think Terry and Vezok can be partners?
@Arc no thoughts on my response to you? I also disagree on your stance on the Vezok/Cyan interaction. It doesn't strike me as ballsy, but advisable. I think it's common sense to look first at the people that didn't interact with the known scum as much, and active engagement with your scumbuddies can help mask such analysis.
@Terry I believe I've answered Vezok-related meta questions in multiple posts, if you care to read back. Also, would you both answer my question in 386 without reference to the setup, as well as provide current-Day reads as opposed to recaps on previous events?
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I certainly would've been more confident in KJ's claim if it had been out front, instead of letting us proceed through toDay thinking that the PoE was going to be shorter than it was. There's a very real, albeit unlikely, world where he made the scumslip and concocted this difficult to counter-claim on the fly to get himself out of hot water. Our lack of other power thus far contributes to making this unlikely, IMO, but KJ in an endgame needs to be considered on behavioral merit as opposed to his claim in a vacuum.
I don't know. I feel like I've been more productive for the town than a variety of other players (at minimum, the other two people we are considering for the lynch currently), answered all questions asked of me as honestly as possible, and am just guilty of a bad read on Vezok/the circumstances of the Vezok/Vaimes situation at the end of D1/D2. I'm still not entirely sure why Vezok was even selected as a lynch, reading back. But I have nothing to point to in an effort to validate my towniness beyond the general reception of the town before we knew Vezok was scum. It also feels like a multiple of my trains of thought have been generally disregarded by the town (even prior to the Vezok lynch), so that can't be helping public opinion.
I'll continue trying to produce as long as the Day continues, and be sure to put up a revised T/S list+vote before the end of Day if I am lynched. Do what you must. Call it defeatism, but I'm not sure what to do differently to change the status quo, as I accept that I am a reasonable (albeit wrong) lynch candidate.
I had thought about KJ's claiming coming under immense pressure, but Grape said he claimed N1 to him. Grape can you confirm?
RE: Dan #386: When I said it had to be Arc/Vaimes it was 100% based off set up spec and assuming KJ was actually being truthful about his claim, which he wasn't. My set up spec is completely thrown out the window now and, for the most part, we are seeing pretty strong questioning from everyone.
I actually also forgot that Docs were Things That Exist so I was actually a lot less likely to die than I'd thought?
Also, I claimed to Grape literally right after I got the result on him. So, a few seconds into beginning of D2.
@all yes KJ told me he was one shot. He told me this during N2 when I was asking about targets. I agree he's not clear but he looks better than Dan at this point.
IMO, Osie was the one person who was never scum after that quickhammer. So, killing him should be kind of a no-brainer for any scum.
And to answer your earlier post, yeah, my logic is "result-based" right now because I feel strongly about the pool I've narrowed it down to, and what I said seems to fit a logical scumteam.
KJ could've had more checks. Which would be incredibly dangerous to keep alive for a scum inside their range. And I suppose dangerous as well since it'd narrow the lynch pool if any more town checks came out of it? Though they could kill the checks, and/or keep KJ alive untit F3.
Yeah, that's confusing
Woah. I gave zero thought to this. I need your guys' help. I think, from this, these two are actually... town?
I fail to see the motivation for someone else to not just kill them as well, though. Uhhh
@Cyan what exactly is anti town about not claiming to be 1 shot to attempt to draw a NK? I don't see your reasoning at all here.
@Arc yes they should have feared the check, but as you said Osie's hammer made him very heavily town. And was basically never getting lynched. I'm never getting lynched at this stage because having a godfather with the limitations KJ has claimed is a bad joke. And you're never getting lynched. Scum is desperate and doesn't have many options for places to push leaving KJ alive to let us drink wine and possibly lynch him this phase is a reasonable if high risk play.
@Terry because Arc is better at this than me and KJ isn't going to get killed given the suspicion people are putting him under and the fact that he's 1 shot.
I don't see any motivation for scum in any position to leave a cop alive that hasn't claimed any restrictions, because at BEST for the scum it narrows the mislynch pool, and at worst KJ was lying about his limitation and he has range over all the cells. There's just so much risk involved in leaving KJ alive.
To setupgame a bit of my own, however, KJ's role doesn't seem that ridiculous to me. We've seen no other power from the town so far, and how much more power can the town have against a two-man scumteam that was also facing against a neutral that had to actively work against the scum, especially with one scum being vanilla?
If I was scum, based on the above logic, I'm coming for KJ regardless last Night. Worst case, I'd maybe expect a bodyguard, which could fit with the flavor. Guy that jumps in front of another individual in a prison scrum to take the shiv for his buddy that's almost out on parole, or somesuch.
@Arc Osie was very likely to be town, agreed, but not more likely than GF or KJ before KJ came clean about his limitations. GF was probably the most clear individual after KJ's claim, even after the derphammer.
@GF at risk of answering a question for Cyan, we can proceed through toDay with a different mentality knowing that our mislynch pool is one higher than we anticipated it being. Can you go a bit more into depth regarding your townread on him? You can omit your private chat if you feel more comfortable doing so.
ganderin_dan -(1)- Arcthurus
Killjoy -(1)- Cyan
Not Voting -(5)- ganderin_dan, Grapefruit21, Killjoy, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Vaimes
Lynch threshold is 4 votes.
Day 3 ends at 2359 Eastern time on Thursday January 25, 2018
In a vacuum, I think Arc is our best bet for scum.
I’m town, I’ve come back to Cyan being town, I’m starting to feel like dan is trying to figure things out rather than save himself or throw shade on someone else, KJ is the only PR claim with an innocent check on Grape, and Terry I really have nothing on except that I don’t think the entire scumteam would bank on being able to lynch me D1 and then...keep scumreading me when it clearly didn’t work out for vezok.
Yeah, Arc saved me, but if I mock Grape for a second, “it could have been a ploy to look town!”
Another reason that is weak and pretty unrelated to anyone’s alignment, but I think when everyone seems a little bit too town for there to be a clear-cut lynch, there needs to be some spice to it in order for it to be a scum lynch. If that makes sense.
Vote Arc
who knows
I understand your rationale in the last sentence there. When nothing makes sense, you have to think outside of the box. I accept the possibility that Cyan could very reasonably be scum, but my initial "Krajtell" is really keeping me from wanting to lynch him. The frustration seems so genuine.
@KJ you've got an unanswered question from me in 426/7.
Scumslip! GG! The only scum that flipped wasn't vanilla.
VOTE: Dan
Probably just need to be done with me at this point to eliminate any odds that it actually is a scumslip.
It's not impossible that Vezok and Terry are a team, but interactions between them seem to suggest that they weren't.
Re; POE: Yeah, I believe they're clear. I didn't think everyone else would. Rather, I thought there'd be more doubt.
But no, I'm just dumb. I guess I melded "we made Vezok vanilla" into "Vezok was vanilla" in my mind.
Nah.
Dan you asked why Terry and vezok likely aren't buddies.
Do you see things that say they could be?
Also Vote: Vaimes based on that revelation/realization.
Who did the most work the point of self voting to try and prevent a D1 no lynch?