I have a strong suspicion that Osieorb and Tom are mafia with Cythare.
You forgot Shinichi, who's probably the BP-taker.
my role is exactly what i claimed it to be, do you have proof otherwise?
i mean you already lied/didnt read your role/got fancy in a weird way i dont exactly have warm fuzzies about you telling the truth but if you can prove it youre clear from jenna not dying
I have a strong suspicion that Osieorb and Tom are mafia with Cythare.
You forgot Shinichi, who's probably the BP-taker.
my role is exactly what i claimed it to be, do you have proof otherwise?
i mean you already lied/didnt read your role/got fancy in a weird way i dont exactly have warm fuzzies about you telling the truth but if you can prove it youre clear from jenna not dying
My role itself doesnt cost bp for any of its abilities
quit distracting me or im never gonna get through this when theres already basketball to watch
It deosnt tho? Outside of the fact it cost 4 to use my passive on others, the passives themselves cost no bp. Also pretty sure I posted that back before I wanted to make it clear that I even had an activatible abililty.
Doesn't look like we have any movement elsewhere. I think this is more likely to be a mislynch than not, but it also doesn't look like my efforts to talk anyone out of it are going to stick.
If you'd like to lynch Phoenix, count me in, but we have two days left and not a single person is moving that direction, or off of Cyth. Apparently everyone is giving tom a chance to motivate, so, my top two are ruled out and the remainder are my wagons that I don't have a great deal of faith in. But if we do mislynch, at least it will be a genuine tree that can't be reasonably cleared out of the POE any other way, since Cyth lurks too hard for a clear behavior read, and I feel a tiny bit better about it seeing how the town bloc is lining up in favor of it while the game's worst ruffians are against, tacitly or otherwise.
But again, I doubt very little I say would make a lasting dent in that impregnable attitude.
ok ive been watching basketball/doctor who and smoking spliffs all day, and sort of reading/skimming/clicking buttons during timeouts and *****
this day was a lot of arguing that im kinda glad i skipped the first time
az of course spent it fearmongering about 5 scum, throwing several home depots worth of kitchen sinks at me, and probably defending more buddies
axel/jenna/whisper/osi and have looked really solvey even if i dont necessarily think its good solving. the... argumentativeness of dawn/shin keep them just off this list. ive liked some of phoenix' thoughts as well but his posts have never been my reason to suspect him.
of note osi made me go back and look at lngrr. my townread there was feeling kind of stale. still think his response to pressure was just epochs different from low fantasy. but there is some cause for concern. the popin today when jenna was doing her (non)random pairings thing was a bit gross. and im noting that both claimed uses of his ability were things scum would know (kaba was the partner one night, scum changed my choice the other). also the only person other than grape/dawn to claim >3 starting bp. and, you know not that it matters anymore but i do still think dawn is pretty likely neutral... thats stupid though scum could easily just claim 3 and its probably nai in the end but its a thing i was thinking about
shin [redacted]. just want him to prove his role and not have to worry about him tbh
i... kind of like that the cythare wagon happened? still dont think theres any reason to lynch anyone but azrael today. but from a not wasting the day just running up az and me again perspective, we got reactions to someone new. think the notable ones were lngrr, osi, az if he's scum. probably shin or iso if hes town.
but thats still a lot less than we get from an az lynch. which i think will end up "clearing" me/iso/shin and being a pretty good look for phoenix and osi (based on today, though earlier i thought az/osi looked aligned so eh i guess could be distancing now that the poe is shrinking or whatever)
and i think lynching a lurker here is pretty lazy. though im certainly not gonna argue hes likely to be scum.
i want to be clear here that i do think cyth is scum. specifically because he fits on every team.
so yeah. the same reason he's probably scum hes not a great lynch for solving the game moving forward.
lol.
i dont want to actually defend him we're literally always killing cythare this game and i dont want to deal with people saying im scum with him later.
but
whatever
depending on how you define it we have somewhere between 3 and 5 protective type roles. all of them have flipped town or are confirmed town except az
info 3 town and 2-4 unknown. manipulative we got a scumflip.
no bp cost: killjoy/iso/phoenix/cyth
0: joeterry/dawn/shin
1: whisper/osi/kabazame
2: jenna/lngrr/az
3: kabazame
4: me/axel/shin
6: dv
7: grapefruit
activated abilities: dv/joeterry/grapefruit/killjoy/me/dawning/jenna/last/axel/shin/lngrr/az/kaba
triggered abilities: shin/osi/iso/phoenix/cyth
threshold abilities: joeterry/killjoy/dawning/iso/cyth
bp game abilities: last/shin/osi/lngrr
pretty unsure what to get out of those but i did it so there you go
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
tldr:
az still scum. playing to the wolf wincon all game. joe and last were the protectives. plus dawning can stop kills and grape could bring people back. plus the grapefruit wagon. and the iso wagon. and the jenna wagon. and the whisper wagon.
cyth probably too but, whatever. id move there to prevent a no lynch but otherwise im staying right here
lngrr needs looked into hard which i will personally do though likely not super soon
shin needs to prove himself so i can stop worrying about him
My role itself doesnt cost bp for any of its abilities
quit distracting me or im never gonna get through this when theres already basketball to watch
It deosnt tho? Outside of the fact it cost 4 to use my passive on others, the passives themselves cost no bp. Also pretty sure I posted that back before I wanted to make it clear that I even had an activatible abililty.
sigh
so were you FPSing or did you not know what your role did?
i really want this to not matter
which
i mean youre town if your role is real. by setupgaming and jenna living.
youre very probably not scum with az the way he tried to push the false you/dawn dichotomy
but ***** man you got some really scummy posts sometimes.
If you seriously believe this, than feel free to vote me, and then lynch Az with great prejudice when I flip town.
it's normal seeing this from Azrael but not you .-.
It's also different.
its actually not... but ok
Az never encouraged people to vote him on the pretense of his flip. He suggested he would suicide, but he doesn't want people to vote him into death, because that he doesn't have control over. That's why his suicide suggestion looks worse. It's not a town "Kill me, then move on." It's a scum "I'm going to suggest that I'd suicide so that people will leave me alone." I have ZERO PRESSURE ON ME, and I'm suggesting that people vote me if they are going to shade me. Az's suicide gambit, meanwhile, comes out when he's being voted to remove pressure from himself. Just like a number of his PBPAs come out when he's being voted to push attention elsewhere.
if that's the only problem you have.... Last has mentioned willingness to be lynched D1, but refused to die afterwards. and...
I find this amusing. Being a lawyer, you should know that's not how it works. Try again for your shading attempt another time. Seriously, I'm laughing out loud righto now because Az said I scum for lack of town tells. Numerous people have confirmed this my town game. It's like saying the there's no evidence that Steve didn't steal the bike THEREFORE he must have stolen the bike!
Yeah, but the real world doesn't have process of elimination. Mafia does. You're not scum because Steve didn't steal the bike - you're scum because I've now gone through a list of 11 other people who definitely didn't steal the bike, and you and three other people are left.
If I'm wrong about that, you've got plenty of time to convince me that one of my town-clears is false, as we'll be going through Iso, Jenna, and Tom before you. On the other hand, I very much doubt I'll still be alive by that point in the game, and you'll be arguing against the shade of Azrael's town-cleared corpse, so perhaps you should begin that process sooner than later.
this is....heartbreaking. can't my townreads work together? </3
@Phraze
I will follow you, and I do trust you... but that doesnt mean im gunna follow your vote to just anyone
if you think otherwise, please address it. if you don't try to change my mind, I won't change my mind.
and don't forget, my choice of targets carry over to night actions (and I have some this time lol).
If you'd like to lynch Phoenix, count me in, but we have two days left and not a single person is moving that direction, or off of Cyth. Apparently everyone is giving tom a chance to motivate, so, my top two are ruled out and the remainder are my wagons that I don't have a great deal of faith in. But if we do mislynch, at least it will be a genuine tree that can't be reasonably cleared out of the POE any other way, since Cyth lurks too hard for a clear behavior read, and I feel a tiny bit better about it seeing how the town bloc is lining up in favor of it while the game's worst ruffians are against, tacitly or otherwise.
But again, I doubt very little I say would make a lasting dent in that impregnable attitude.
with a game this informative, scum usually have no choice but to lurk. well... unless they're the ones causing it.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
My role itself doesnt cost bp for any of its abilities
quit distracting me or im never gonna get through this when theres already basketball to watch
It deosnt tho? Outside of the fact it cost 4 to use my passive on others, the passives themselves cost no bp. Also pretty sure I posted that back before I wanted to make it clear that I even had an activatible abililty.
wat? How does it "cost" 4 to use your passive?
-
@tom: Remind me what this Shin/Jenna thing is that makes you think Shinichi is cleared?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
By default it works on who he's paired with, but he can transfer that effect to someone else.
Whether or not he needs to match his current pairing or the target pairing of if no match is necessary -- that I don't know. I'm not sure if it was made clear.
My role itself doesnt cost bp for any of its abilities
quit distracting me or im never gonna get through this when theres already basketball to watch
It deosnt tho? Outside of the fact it cost 4 to use my passive on others, the passives themselves cost no bp. Also pretty sure I posted that back before I wanted to make it clear that I even had an activatible abililty.
wat? How does it "cost" 4 to use your passive?
-
@tom: Remind me what this Shin/Jenna thing is that makes you think Shinichi is cleared?
it costs 4 to give his passive to someone for the night... To give... Literally means everything in that sentence
Cyth's first appearance on D3 was at #5843. The Kaba wagon is kind of at full steam at this moment. Cyth. expresses willingness to vote for Kaba, but he's doing it in a somewhat strange manner from where I'm sitting. He's kind of throwing shade on DBS at the same time, to the point of floating a theory that Kaba could be scum with DBS, which really makes no sense (he does say that would be an extremely questionable gambit, I suppose).
He then doesn't have anything that I note until #6180, when he comes back and votes for Shin. And his basis seems to be that he agrees with the proposition that we should wait and see if I die before deciding what to do about the Kaba/Terry situation. This is a position that is being supported by some (Tom/Terry) so it's fairly safe. I also happen to believe that this is the position that the scum would want to take - obviously because it has the benefit of letting kaba live another entire day. That doesn't mean all scum would automatically be arguing for it, that might be a little too obvious, but I would be super surprised if some of them weren't. I also don't really even like his reasons for voting for Shin in this post. Seems to be a combination of (1) bandgonwaggony (2) poor mechanic speculation and (3) general irritation.
Next note I have about him isn't until #6510. This is after Kaba has claimed and some people, Terry in particular, have jumped down his throat. Cyth's reaction is to say he's "fine" with Kaba, but also still fine with Shin, and he does not vote. He also doesn't say anything about the claim itself or appear to have a reaction to it specifically. I feel like this is very possibly a scum response.
Last note I have about him is #6658, which is after the lynch wherein he posts his after-the-fact approval.
So, basically, he did nothing on D3, and the stuff he did do was not particularly Townie. There wasn't one post that I saw that didn't seem like it could easily have come from scum, or from the scum perspective. He stayed off the Kaba wagon, while nominally expressing support for it. But was more advocating for letting Kaba live, and killing Shin. for questionable reasons. Didn't say much in general.
If he's Town, he's essentially quit on the game is about all I can say. Could be a function of being a replacement and never really getting caught up/invested, but it's still bad.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
opportunistic associations (thankfully not hard to find):
Phoenix-Fire
- scumreads, but with Killjoy "To be clear I don't think Phoenix is the lynch today. The whole scum team is still alive and his role is too valuable if he's telling the truth. But I do think it's important to discuss it"
"If Phoenix is indeed scum than KJ is almost definitely scum with him."
This is kind of only part of the story, he didn't pipe up that I shouldn't be "that day's lynch" until it had been said by several other people.
Tom starts by noting (after DBS has claimed the RB, and Terry has asked people to refrain from voting Kaba until Kaba responds) that Terry's request is the only reason he isn't voting for Kaba. This is okay, I guess. Not really alignment indicative.
Then, after Terry makes his claim, Tom posts again in #5930. He says he believes Terry 100%, which I guess I have a problem with because Terry's claim was inherently unbelievable. He then goes on to push the "wait and see what happens" solution to the NK dilemms, which I am arguing would likely be the scum-desired outcome. His vote goes to Azrael. I've also previously said why I think this means that Tom and Az are not scum/scum together, because, knowing that Kaba was dead meat tomorrow if we let him live today, the scum would probably not be pushing for another, different, scum-buddy as the lynch today, setting up back-to-back scum lynches. There is still the T/T possibility, which would be very bad for us, but can't be ruled out yet.
Got a note at #5989 where Tom says that he misread Terry's claim and thought Terry was claiming a "threshold" ability that he needed to be a 5 to use, but which didn't cost anything. Interestingly, though this is not what Terry claimed, it was, in fact, what the ability actually was. If Tom really misread it (though I don't see why he should have misread it) I guess it's slightly more understandable how he could have said he believed Terry 100%. Tom's response now is to say he's "thinking." Presumably this is because I have posted and suggested that Terry actually killed me rather than "delayed" my death.
The results of this thinking are that Tom still thinks we should just wait and see if I live/die before deciding what to do about Kaba, i.e. the scum-desired outcome. Also made a note about how Tom bragged about his power-wolfing technique....Hrmmmmm. This would be a much better point, I feel if Terry had not also been arguing strongly for it at the same time. I can't say that a Townie wouldn't feel this way. Though Terry had the additional information of knowing that he really did target me, whereas all of us were having to take that claim on faith. Sigh.
Tom starts to get better after that, however. My note says that his point #6112 is not bad.
And then, I thought #6118 and #6119 were good where he argued (to the people who were thinking about lynching Terry) that even if they thought that, then Kaba was still the better choice. Now, he's not voting Kaba, but he's not taking a prime opportunity to shade Terry either. His position is that Terry's claim would have been very dumb for a scum to have made. He does go on to suggest that Terry could be a target tomorrow if it turns out he didn't stop a kill, but he's not exactly encouraging that position. It's net + thinking.
Tom is still being fairly logical in #6261. I can't find a lot of fault in most of what Tom posts, and everything seems reasonable. But I still don't trust him either. Perhaps it comes from being burned by scum-Tom before.
On the other hand, #6395 isn't amazing. Right after Kaba comes back. Tom says he didn't wake up soon enough to "reaction" test Kaba and Kaba is probably all catching up now. Suggesting that if he had only been around earlier, he would have done...something. But now he's doing nothing.
Kaba then makes his claim in #6398.
Tom's reaction to the claim is in #6453 and it's fairly neutral. Says he still wants to wait and see who dies. But says Kaba "could" be scum. This could be a scum-buddy reaction. Not definitive.
By #6547 he's pretty much conceding that Kaba will likely flip scum. And seems fine with the lynch. Seems like he's partly basing this on Kaba's claiming and then disappearing again which just looks like caught scum.
But #6637 has to be another + for Tom. This is after the Az derail attempt is in full swing. Tom tries to focus back on Kaba and says not to let Az distract us from the Kaba lynch. Votes for Kaba. So, if he were scum, and seeing Townie Az go all-in on defending Kaba, there would have to be a strong temptation to either (1) go along with it - go back to previously expressed position that we should wait and see, or at least (2) stay out of it, and see if anyone else might bite. Rather than do the opposite and push full bore for your scum-buddy lynch. So it's + for Tom.
This is slightly complicated by two factors (1) Tom and Az have been at each other's throats much of the day, so it's possible scum-Tom feels he can't decide to go along with the suggestion of a player he's actively arguing is scum and (2) there was still a lot of momentum for Kaba lynch and scum-Tom might have just seen the writing on the wall, and decided to switch to full-bus-mode, planning to use Az's wrong defense of Kaba against him today. So, again, this isn't quite as strong a point for Tom as it might have been. But it's still a point. Like there was still a chance that Kaba might have got away there. Maybe not a strong chance, but a chance, which Tom's vote/push make a whole lot less likely. Reaffirms my point they aren't scum together.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Tom looks better than Az, overall, at least as far as D3 analysis. That may not be fair to Az. Perhaps if I looked at D2, Az would come off a whole lot better than Tom for that day. But I do think the days we lynch scum are stronger indicators than the other days, in general.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I've still got some notes for Osie, Phoenix, Iso and (a very few) on LnGrrr. But I'm not sure when I can post them. Go to go right now.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I think I would call cythare the only living lurker
You could maybe extend the definition to include, like, lngrr/phoenix maybe. But I don't think that's particularly fair
if that's the only problem you have.... Last has mentioned willingness to be lynched D1, but refused to die afterwards. and...
It's not the only problem I have, but also Last's "throw in the towel" comment does not look like a gambit.
what other problems do you have? 'inorganic' is subjective, which is easy for maf to paint any which way. I'd prefer some concrete evidence like a gamestate issue. the closest I've seen is trying to divert from Kaba, but that's actually a town point since it contrasts greatly from Kaba's to-the-slaughter behavior. there's the glaring point of protectives, but I'm not sure how much of the setup we can play by if there can be 2 killing/roleblocking roles. ... make that 3 roleblocking roles.
as for Last, his comment was more 'genuine' since he doesn't have the endurance of a veteran. if you wanted to lynch Dawn/Last off the basis of 'newbie scum', then shouldn't it be as different if you were to townread us? between Azrael who has more experience/endurance to gambit, versus Last who played less than a year, who is more likely to give up? if Last gave up early due to his experience, is it fair to judge Azrael by that same level?
opportunistic associations (thankfully not hard to find):
Phoenix-Fire
- scumreads, but with Killjoy "To be clear I don't think Phoenix is the lynch today. The whole scum team is still alive and his role is too valuable if he's telling the truth. But I do think it's important to discuss it"
"If Phoenix is indeed scum than KJ is almost definitely scum with him."
This is kind of only part of the story, he didn't pipe up that I shouldn't be "that day's lynch" until it had been said by several other people.
why would he say "that day's lynch" instead of "I think he's town" about you?
when it was decided you should be lynched, Kaba deflected by associating you with Killjoy... and we all know what he flipped.
what other problems do you have? 'inorganic' is subjective, which is easy for maf to paint any which way. I'd prefer some concrete evidence like a gamestate issue. the closest I've seen is trying to divert from Kaba, but that's actually a town point since it contrasts greatly from Kaba's to-the-slaughter behavior. there's the glaring point of protectives, but I'm not sure how much of the setup we can play by if there can be 2 killing/roleblocking roles. ... make that 3 roleblocking roles.
Due to gamestate and elements of the game, rather than primarily based on gut/tone/the like, Azrael has an increased likelihood to be scum.
1. Terry's flip and the low likelihood of two doctors.
2. Pushing people towards Grapefruit.
3. Waffling on Killjoy.
4. Pulling people away from Kabazame.
You can also look at some tonally off things:
5. Suicide suggestion.
6. Starting with the suggestion that he is scum, and then retracting it with the clear intent to play that off as a town gambit.
7. Posting long, cherrypicked cases to make inorganic positions.
8. Pocketing people for the sake of redirection away from himself.
9. A primary defense of "I've put in effort to case people." He has also attempted to link this sort of case with me by using it as his primary motivation for considering me town. This is something that he recently has chosen to ignore so that he can keep the focus on people other than himself. Note: I DON'T USE THIS DEFENSE, BECAUSE EFFORT DOES NOT MAKE ONE TOWN.
as for Last, his comment was more 'genuine' since he doesn't have the endurance of a veteran. if you wanted to lynch Dawn/Last off the basis of 'newbie scum', then shouldn't it be as different if you were to townread us? between Azrael who has more experience/endurance to gambit, versus Last who played less than a year, who is more likely to give up? if Last gave up early due to his experience, is it fair to judge Azrael by that same level?
What are you trying to say here? That I should assume newbs are scum if they do something that would be called a gambit in an experienced player's hands? That sounds like you're ending up on the wrong side of wine, in excruciating hangover territory.
My role itself doesnt cost bp for any of its abilities
quit distracting me or im never gonna get through this when theres already basketball to watch
It deosnt tho? Outside of the fact it cost 4 to use my passive on others, the passives themselves cost no bp. Also pretty sure I posted that back before I wanted to make it clear that I even had an activatible abililty.
sigh
so were you FPSing or did you not know what your role did?
i really want this to not matter
which
i mean youre town if your role is real. by setupgaming and jenna living.
youre very probably not scum with az the way he tried to push the false you/dawn dichotomy
but ***** man you got some really scummy posts sometimes.
I know what my role did?
My role is 100% real but I dont like that your confirming that.
opportunistic associations (thankfully not hard to find):
Phoenix-Fire
- scumreads, but with Killjoy "To be clear I don't think Phoenix is the lynch today. The whole scum team is still alive and his role is too valuable if he's telling the truth. But I do think it's important to discuss it"
"If Phoenix is indeed scum than KJ is almost definitely scum with him."
This is kind of only part of the story, he didn't pipe up that I shouldn't be "that day's lynch" until it had been said by several other people.
I dont think you will ever be killed, because I think your scum. If your town it benefits scum to have u dead.
I really want to hammer cythare right now, but i cant till someone else vote him. Though your an option as well.
@dawn
Yes. 3 roleblocking roles and one was scum.
Joeterry and lastwhisper are our protectives. Plus you and grape sorta. Az is scum.
- BP giver isn't a protective.
- my roleblocking is considerably a protective, but you say I'm neutral.
- reviver is more of a half-protective. add together with bodyguard and you get 1 full protective.
even with your logic I don't see what makes Azrael scum, since there shouldn't be a problem for 2 protectives.
unless you think I'm town.
What are you trying to say here? That I should assume newbs are scum if they do something that would be called a gambit in an experienced player's hands? That sounds like you're ending up on the wrong side of wine, in excruciating hangover territory.
seen them way back but not convinced. largely subjective and nothing that denotes influence over the current gamestate.
what I'm trying to say is.. Azrael's suicide talk isn't strange coming from him, but it is when it's from you. Last has made similar comments about wanting to die, which is also common coming from him. if you want to compare those 2, then you'll need to consider the difference in their experiences before you dissect things further. when I compare the way they said it, to the way you said it, it's shady coming from you (and you did use that to shade Azrael's suicide talk).
it doesn't look like you're trying to find the reason behind an action, only that an action is scummy. too much influence from Last?
I really want to hammer cythare right now, but i cant till someone else vote him. Though your an option as well.
why don't you vote and let someone else hammer? helpful for PoE if you aren't the one to close the case.
and why do you think scum would want Phoenix dead? isn't Axel a better option?
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
How is whisper not protective? He literally stopped someone from dying.
And joe was the best protective role itg even if az was somehow telling the truth
We assume there are at least three scum left here. I have seen no basis to believe there is a neutral in this game. The people I am taking off the list first:
Me: you can fight me on this if you wish.
DBS: for obvious reasons. She RBed Kaba on the night there was no kill. Kaba was scum. Town or ultimate gambit. And as far as the gambit possibility, she didn't even vote for Kaba initially, which seems to point away from that even very small possibility.
Last Whisper: for almost equally obvious reasons. Unless he is part of a 3-way team with Jenna and Tom, he saved Jenna's life last night when the scum attempted to kill her.
Jenna: again, unless there's a big gambit happening here, the scum tried to kill her last night. Now, LW doesn't have to be part of that gambit for her to be scum, in this case it's just Tom, but it still seems rather unlikely. Also, she claimed Tracker and fingered Phoenix in such a way as to make her very unlikely to be scum.
Leaving:
Shinichi
tomsloger
Cythare
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
Of this group, the one I find the least likely to be scum is Shin. It is partly his claim, and partly the way he has played. Not that he has been super-correct in his reads or anything like that, but (1) He allied DBS the night DBS Rbed Kaba, when a scum could easily have justified Betraying her there. (2) he was also on the Kaba Lynch. He's also been arguing with DBS soooooo much. I feel like 1/2 the thread is just those two. Seems a bit much for scum. Though that's not really definitive or anything. Anyway, I'm taking him out, at least for now.
tomsloger
Cythare
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
Now we have a group of 7 people, with at least three assumed scum in it. These are odds we can work with.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
So most of lngrrr's iso is talking about betraying. and aside from the fact its just mechanics that was based on incorrect information, its from a really nonsolving place. like, if lngrrr thinks whatever hes purporting to think why is he spilling it all before at least one round of dilemmas? its an attempt to look towny, but it misses the mark because it actively takes away his own ability to scumhunt according to his theory.
@Killjoy, you sure you arent just voting Osi because you did all the work to ISO him? You think others are scummier, right? If so why are you voting him? Why isolate Orb instead of any other player, like DBS or Whisper?
and then this.
he doesnt actually say anything here.
just, redirecting killjoy.
not exactly sure how to find lngrrr's buddies within this with the way he bussed in low fantasy
OF COURSE THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN SOMEONE BETRAYS AND IS TOWN. THERE ARE ALSO TIMES WHERE TOWNIES LIE TO GAMBIT. THAT DOESN'T MEAN EITHEROF THISE THINGS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED DE FACTO TOWN BEHAVIOR.
GF, how has information "come to light" because of me? Shin mentioned the 3 BP thing unbidden. I mentioned I had 4. Then Osi claimed, and then DBS.. kinda claimed.
Which of these do you blame on me?
Feel free to vote me. The sword of Damocles you think you're holding is merely Nerf.
and this just reads like cftwr (Caught For The Wrong Reasons)
His first post of D3 was interesting for what it didn't say more than for what it did. Osie had no reaction to the fact there was no Night-kill. I find that weird. My gut says Town is more likely to say something than nothing, because Town is going to be relieved/happy whereas Scum is going to be confused and cautious. But that's just a gut feeling.
In #5851, after DBS's claim, Osie declares he is "not opposed" to a Kaba lynch, but he is keeping his vote on whoever he was voting for (Tom/Terry?). That could be scum reaction.
But then, he almost immediately changes his mind and votes for Kaba in #5853. This was 5th vote, I believe. What changed? It appears he read my post of #5838 in the interim and was persuaded the odds favored scum-Kaba. Hrmmmmm. Again, I can't call this a super-Townie reaction, coming relatively late, but at least he's voting correctly now.
But then, #5975, this is after Terry's claim, Osie comes back and Unvotes Kaba. All he says is that he doesn't like the wagon. Bad dog. This could certainly be a scum-buddy opportunistically jumping off.
He then posts a lot of unhelpful GIFs. This isn't scummy per-se. But it ain't useful either.
He gives a big reads post in #6067, which is + just for doing it. But his biggest scum read appears to be Tom. And his post has DBS/Terry/Kaba all under suspicion to some degree. He then has some thoughts on Tom/Terry/Iso/Az that my notes say I cannot even parse.
Expands on his Tom scum-read in #6077. The crux of it appears to be that when Tom isn't shinning through as Town and hasn't been night-killed, it means he's scum. Don't like the meta read here, regardless of my opinion on Tom. It's kind of the way he's doing it. Like, he's not arguing that Tom is scum because Tom hasn't been doing much this game. Or has been actively scummy. Or he's scum because his reads have been wrong. It's he's scum because he's just not more obviously Town. And also still alive. I feel like this is the kind of scum read one could make on a scum-buddy. Just because it's super weak attack for a scum to make on a Town.
As I think I noted before, Osie #6136 strongly suggests that Osie is not scum-buddy with Az. And I think it looks worse for Osie-scum if Az were to flip Townie, given that Kaba was the alternate.
And then, I note in #6370 that Osie seems to flip his opinion on Az a little too quickly. I'm not sure why he's even engaging Az and responding the way he's responding here. Almost feels like he's trying to buddy Az.
Then, Kaba claimed and Osie's first post after the claim said nothing about it. That's -- I feel like Town would be more likely to express an opinion there.
He doesn't vote Kaba until #6419, I think, after several have now commented on how bad Kaba's claim was. Later he remarks that he is "down" with lynching Kaba, but ALSO says he's "not opposed" to a DBS lynch down the line. Which, frankly, is not a reasonable position to take. DBS role-blocking Kaba is not a scum-scum interaction.
Osie was onboard for the Az derail. Unvoting Kaba in #6627 and voting for Tom. He does note that he would go back to voting Kaba before a No Lynch, but this is kind of weak.
Osie ultimately delivers the hammer in #6649. Not sure how to read his "**** it" reasoning. Like, what did that mean? He wasn't sure, but "**** it?" Hammering scum is good, but this could still have been a bus vote. Osie wavered a lot.
Not too much I saw that was Town+ for Osie on D3, at least as far as his interactions around Kaba. I also have a note, that of people who could be lying or at least leaving stuff out of their claims, Osie is right there at the top, along with Phoenix. Clearly he has a Neighborizer ability, but he's been pretty cavalier about using it. Personally, I would worry about going too low on BP, but Osie doesn't seem to have those concerns. I particularly wondered about his interaction with Phoenix. Phoenix supposedly has NO use for BP. And he's got a lot of it. And yet, when paired, they chose to Ally each other, when it seems like it would have made a lot more sense for Osie to Betray just to get a boost.
So, Phoenix/Osie possibly a pair. Osie not with AZ.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
seen them way back but not convinced. largely subjective and nothing that denotes influence over the current gamestate.
Mechanically confirmed issues are largely subjective? Okay, so you are pocketed beyond rationality by Azrael.
These are MECHANICALLY CONFIRMED:
1. Terry's flip and the low likelihood of two doctors.
2. Pushing people towards Grapefruit.
3. Waffling on Killjoy.
4. Pulling people away from Kabazame.
Do you think that one of the most experienced players was just wrong three times (and a lot more than that; he's hard-pushed pretty much every player in the thread, including all the rest of your "confirmed town"), and has a role that is IDENTICAL to a hard-to-access, threshold-based part of someone else's role, but with a cost? Shinichi's roleblocker ability is limited in a way that fits with the game, and fits in with a model that Bur would draw from, an Iso role that I had in the past. Your roleblocker ability is limited in a distinct way that fits with the game, and fits in with Terry's role. Az's ability does not fit in, is a reasonably common style of scum claim, and can very simply not be proven without a lot of time that we do not have, have NEVER had, in this game.
what I'm trying to say is.. Azrael's suicide talk isn't strange coming from him, but it is when it's from you.
I've been defeatist as town in other games... Someone even made a comment about it once or twice. I also am a firm believer in telling people to vote rather than shade, whether they are shading me or shading someone else.
Last has made similar comments about wanting to die, which is also common coming from him. if you want to compare those 2, then you'll need to consider the difference in their experiences before you dissect things further. when I compare the way they said it, to the way you said it, it's shady coming from you (and you did use that to shade Azrael's suicide talk).
Do scum do 1-for-1 on your site a lot? There was a comment in another game here "Scum don't do 1-for-1." Because they don't. Az doesn't want to suicide. He wants to suggest suicide as a way to manipulate people, but he will not go through with it even if every town player in the thread asks him to do so. And he wants to use that to get multiple mislynches. Which he has already partially succeeded at.
Meanwhile, I'm saying "1-for-1, lynch me, I'll flip town, and then you can go lynch Azrael." There are enough town, that as town, I don't need to be alive. But leaving scum alive as you are doing is dangerous. Being pocketed by scum is dangerous. Heck, we can skip the middleman, and just lynch Azrael. And if he flips town, then go ahead and lynch me. I'll even help you out and vote myself in either case if I know that someone who I am something like 95% sure is scum will be lynched. And you, who relies on meta... One of Azrael's primary strategies, in my experience with him, is pocketing. I've played with him before, he did the same. And he's pocketing people here. I'm honestly surprised that Iso of all people isn't seeing through it.
nothing that denotes influence over the current gamestate.
I'm desperately asking that you remove scum. I'm perfectly willing to vote for Cythare on Day 5. Heck, if you want us to lynch Cythare, if you want us to lynch me, I'll vote as people desire. But Azrael is just as confirmed scum as the four of you are confirmed town. Azrael is sitting back and laughing as half of town mindlessly does his bidding.
tomsloger
Cythare
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
It is also somewhat interesting to me that within this 7 group there is a strong anti-Azrael coalition of Tom/Iso/Osie/Phoenix. Given my feelings that these people probably aren't scum with Az (less Iso than the others though). What does that mean? Az is scum, and the other scum are then: Cyth and LnGrrr (and/or Iso) purely by default?
Or, Az is Town, and the scum are trying really hard to kill him.
One of these scenarios certainly seems simpler than the other. And lynching Cyth. could potentially be useful here. Because if Cyth is scum, it does fit right with the Az-scum scenario.
But if Cyth flips Town, what does that mean? I have trouble coming up with enough people to be scum-buddies with Az in that scenario. It would almost have to be LnGrrr and Iso (in a huge mutual bus for a long time - until recently, I suppose).
I'm just wildly speculating out loud now. Don't mind me....
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Confused where did i lie?
quit distracting me or im never gonna get through this when theres already basketball to watch
It deosnt tho? Outside of the fact it cost 4 to use my passive on others, the passives themselves cost no bp. Also pretty sure I posted that back before I wanted to make it clear that I even had an activatible abililty.
Doesn't look like we have any movement elsewhere. I think this is more likely to be a mislynch than not, but it also doesn't look like my efforts to talk anyone out of it are going to stick.
What a pile of wolf droppings.
But again, I doubt very little I say would make a lasting dent in that impregnable attitude.
this day was a lot of arguing that im kinda glad i skipped the first time
az of course spent it fearmongering about 5 scum, throwing several home depots worth of kitchen sinks at me, and probably defending more buddies
axel/jenna/whisper/osi and have looked really solvey even if i dont necessarily think its good solving. the... argumentativeness of dawn/shin keep them just off this list. ive liked some of phoenix' thoughts as well but his posts have never been my reason to suspect him.
of note osi made me go back and look at lngrr. my townread there was feeling kind of stale. still think his response to pressure was just epochs different from low fantasy. but there is some cause for concern. the popin today when jenna was doing her (non)random pairings thing was a bit gross. and im noting that both claimed uses of his ability were things scum would know (kaba was the partner one night, scum changed my choice the other). also the only person other than grape/dawn to claim >3 starting bp. and, you know not that it matters anymore but i do still think dawn is pretty likely neutral... thats stupid though scum could easily just claim 3 and its probably nai in the end but its a thing i was thinking about
shin [redacted]. just want him to prove his role and not have to worry about him tbh
i... kind of like that the cythare wagon happened? still dont think theres any reason to lynch anyone but azrael today. but from a not wasting the day just running up az and me again perspective, we got reactions to someone new. think the notable ones were lngrr, osi, az if he's scum. probably shin or iso if hes town.
but thats still a lot less than we get from an az lynch. which i think will end up "clearing" me/iso/shin and being a pretty good look for phoenix and osi (based on today, though earlier i thought az/osi looked aligned so eh i guess could be distancing now that the poe is shrinking or whatever)
and i think lynching a lurker here is pretty lazy. though im certainly not gonna argue hes likely to be scum.
i want to be clear here that i do think cyth is scum. specifically because he fits on every team.
so yeah. the same reason he's probably scum hes not a great lynch for solving the game moving forward.
lol.
i dont want to actually defend him we're literally always killing cythare this game and i dont want to deal with people saying im scum with him later.
but
whatever
some collating of the massclaim + flips
protective:
joeterry/lastwhisper/azrael +grapefruit/dawninginfo:
DV/killjoy/jenna/lngrr/cyth + osi/phoenixmanipulativeish: me/dawning/axel/shinichi/bp switcher/kabazame
killing: dawning/iso/[bp taker/lying iso]
depending on how you define it we have somewhere between 3 and 5 protective type roles. all of them have flipped town or are confirmed town except az
info 3 town and 2-4 unknown. manipulative we got a scumflip.
no bp cost:
killjoy/iso/phoenix/cyth0:
joeterry/dawn/shin1: whisper/osi/kabazame
2: jenna/lngrr/az
3: kabazame
4: me/axel/shin
6: dv
7: grapefruit
activated abilities:
dv/joeterry/grapefruit/killjoy/me/dawning/jenna/last/axel/shin/lngrr/az/kabatriggered abilities: shin/osi/iso/phoenix/cyth
threshold abilities:
joeterry/killjoy/dawning/iso/cythbp game abilities: last/shin/osi/lngrr
pretty unsure what to get out of those but i did it so there you go
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
tldr:
az still scum. playing to the wolf wincon all game. joe and last were the protectives. plus dawning can stop kills and grape could bring people back. plus the grapefruit wagon. and the iso wagon. and the jenna wagon. and the whisper wagon.
cyth probably too but, whatever. id move there to prevent a no lynch but otherwise im staying right here
lngrr needs looked into hard which i will personally do though likely not super soon
shin needs to prove himself so i can stop worrying about him
so were you FPSing or did you not know what your role did?
i really want this to not matter
which
i mean youre town if your role is real. by setupgaming and jenna living.
youre very probably not scum with az the way he tried to push the false you/dawn dichotomy
but ***** man you got some really scummy posts sometimes.
az/cyth/lngrr/kaba
it feels
pretty strange to not have phoenix on this list.
but
well. i dont
vvvvvv
if you think otherwise, please address it. if you don't try to change my mind, I won't change my mind.
and don't forget, my choice of targets carry over to night actions (and I have some this time lol).
with a game this informative, scum usually have no choice but to lurk. well... unless they're the ones causing it.
Be grateful, always."
Totez.
wat? How does it "cost" 4 to use your passive?
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@tom: Remind me what this Shin/Jenna thing is that makes you think Shinichi is cleared?
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2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
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Non-Staff Quasi-ModCythare (5): Lastwhisper, Jenna Tolaria, dawningbluesky, Iso, Azrael
Azrael (4): tomsloger, Phoenix-Fire, osieorb18, Shinichi
Not Voting (3): Cythare, Axelrod, LnGrrrR
With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Deadline is Wednesday, December 27th at 11.59 pm EST.
Jenna Tolaria, LnGrrrR, Axelrod, Phoenix-Fire and Cythare have all been prodded!
By default it works on who he's paired with, but he can transfer that effect to someone else.
Whether or not he needs to match his current pairing or the target pairing of if no match is necessary -- that I don't know. I'm not sure if it was made clear.
It's not the only problem I have, but also Last's "throw in the towel" comment does not look like a gambit.
Here are my Cyth notes. He's lurky as hell.
Cyth's first appearance on D3 was at #5843. The Kaba wagon is kind of at full steam at this moment. Cyth. expresses willingness to vote for Kaba, but he's doing it in a somewhat strange manner from where I'm sitting. He's kind of throwing shade on DBS at the same time, to the point of floating a theory that Kaba could be scum with DBS, which really makes no sense (he does say that would be an extremely questionable gambit, I suppose).
He then doesn't have anything that I note until #6180, when he comes back and votes for Shin. And his basis seems to be that he agrees with the proposition that we should wait and see if I die before deciding what to do about the Kaba/Terry situation. This is a position that is being supported by some (Tom/Terry) so it's fairly safe. I also happen to believe that this is the position that the scum would want to take - obviously because it has the benefit of letting kaba live another entire day. That doesn't mean all scum would automatically be arguing for it, that might be a little too obvious, but I would be super surprised if some of them weren't. I also don't really even like his reasons for voting for Shin in this post. Seems to be a combination of (1) bandgonwaggony (2) poor mechanic speculation and (3) general irritation.
Next note I have about him isn't until #6510. This is after Kaba has claimed and some people, Terry in particular, have jumped down his throat. Cyth's reaction is to say he's "fine" with Kaba, but also still fine with Shin, and he does not vote. He also doesn't say anything about the claim itself or appear to have a reaction to it specifically. I feel like this is very possibly a scum response.
Last note I have about him is #6658, which is after the lynch wherein he posts his after-the-fact approval.
So, basically, he did nothing on D3, and the stuff he did do was not particularly Townie. There wasn't one post that I saw that didn't seem like it could easily have come from scum, or from the scum perspective. He stayed off the Kaba wagon, while nominally expressing support for it. But was more advocating for letting Kaba live, and killing Shin. for questionable reasons. Didn't say much in general.
If he's Town, he's essentially quit on the game is about all I can say. Could be a function of being a replacement and never really getting caught up/invested, but it's still bad.
Az flipping scum will prove that his bull crap push on me is bogus. I mean, if you want to say I'm bussing, go ahead but I'll point and laugh.This is a scum post. Look at the phrasing.
Can we please lynch Az now?
(And no, I don't have any other games I can link)This is kind of only part of the story, he didn't pipe up that I shouldn't be "that day's lynch" until it had been said by several other people.
Tom starts by noting (after DBS has claimed the RB, and Terry has asked people to refrain from voting Kaba until Kaba responds) that Terry's request is the only reason he isn't voting for Kaba. This is okay, I guess. Not really alignment indicative.
Then, after Terry makes his claim, Tom posts again in #5930. He says he believes Terry 100%, which I guess I have a problem with because Terry's claim was inherently unbelievable. He then goes on to push the "wait and see what happens" solution to the NK dilemms, which I am arguing would likely be the scum-desired outcome. His vote goes to Azrael. I've also previously said why I think this means that Tom and Az are not scum/scum together, because, knowing that Kaba was dead meat tomorrow if we let him live today, the scum would probably not be pushing for another, different, scum-buddy as the lynch today, setting up back-to-back scum lynches. There is still the T/T possibility, which would be very bad for us, but can't be ruled out yet.
Got a note at #5989 where Tom says that he misread Terry's claim and thought Terry was claiming a "threshold" ability that he needed to be a 5 to use, but which didn't cost anything. Interestingly, though this is not what Terry claimed, it was, in fact, what the ability actually was. If Tom really misread it (though I don't see why he should have misread it) I guess it's slightly more understandable how he could have said he believed Terry 100%. Tom's response now is to say he's "thinking." Presumably this is because I have posted and suggested that Terry actually killed me rather than "delayed" my death.
The results of this thinking are that Tom still thinks we should just wait and see if I live/die before deciding what to do about Kaba, i.e. the scum-desired outcome. Also made a note about how Tom bragged about his power-wolfing technique....Hrmmmmm. This would be a much better point, I feel if Terry had not also been arguing strongly for it at the same time. I can't say that a Townie wouldn't feel this way. Though Terry had the additional information of knowing that he really did target me, whereas all of us were having to take that claim on faith. Sigh.
Tom starts to get better after that, however. My note says that his point #6112 is not bad.
And then, I thought #6118 and #6119 were good where he argued (to the people who were thinking about lynching Terry) that even if they thought that, then Kaba was still the better choice. Now, he's not voting Kaba, but he's not taking a prime opportunity to shade Terry either. His position is that Terry's claim would have been very dumb for a scum to have made. He does go on to suggest that Terry could be a target tomorrow if it turns out he didn't stop a kill, but he's not exactly encouraging that position. It's net + thinking.
Tom is still being fairly logical in #6261. I can't find a lot of fault in most of what Tom posts, and everything seems reasonable. But I still don't trust him either. Perhaps it comes from being burned by scum-Tom before.
On the other hand, #6395 isn't amazing. Right after Kaba comes back. Tom says he didn't wake up soon enough to "reaction" test Kaba and Kaba is probably all catching up now. Suggesting that if he had only been around earlier, he would have done...something. But now he's doing nothing.
Kaba then makes his claim in #6398.
Tom's reaction to the claim is in #6453 and it's fairly neutral. Says he still wants to wait and see who dies. But says Kaba "could" be scum. This could be a scum-buddy reaction. Not definitive.
By #6547 he's pretty much conceding that Kaba will likely flip scum. And seems fine with the lynch. Seems like he's partly basing this on Kaba's claiming and then disappearing again which just looks like caught scum.
But #6637 has to be another + for Tom. This is after the Az derail attempt is in full swing. Tom tries to focus back on Kaba and says not to let Az distract us from the Kaba lynch. Votes for Kaba. So, if he were scum, and seeing Townie Az go all-in on defending Kaba, there would have to be a strong temptation to either (1) go along with it - go back to previously expressed position that we should wait and see, or at least (2) stay out of it, and see if anyone else might bite. Rather than do the opposite and push full bore for your scum-buddy lynch. So it's + for Tom.
This is slightly complicated by two factors (1) Tom and Az have been at each other's throats much of the day, so it's possible scum-Tom feels he can't decide to go along with the suggestion of a player he's actively arguing is scum and (2) there was still a lot of momentum for Kaba lynch and scum-Tom might have just seen the writing on the wall, and decided to switch to full-bus-mode, planning to use Az's wrong defense of Kaba against him today. So, again, this isn't quite as strong a point for Tom as it might have been. But it's still a point. Like there was still a chance that Kaba might have got away there. Maybe not a strong chance, but a chance, which Tom's vote/push make a whole lot less likely. Reaffirms my point they aren't scum together.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Tom looks better than Az, overall, at least as far as D3 analysis. That may not be fair to Az. Perhaps if I looked at D2, Az would come off a whole lot better than Tom for that day. But I do think the days we lynch scum are stronger indicators than the other days, in general.
Cythare and...?
You could maybe extend the definition to include, like, lngrr/phoenix maybe. But I don't think that's particularly fair
Snipped to highlight the utter hypocrisy. Especially in light of the fact that I've never advocated lifting a finger against DBS.
Why not?
"Who has lurked?" is the relevant question, and that applies to a lot of people.
as for Last, his comment was more 'genuine' since he doesn't have the endurance of a veteran. if you wanted to lynch Dawn/Last off the basis of 'newbie scum', then shouldn't it be as different if you were to townread us? between Azrael who has more experience/endurance to gambit, versus Last who played less than a year, who is more likely to give up? if Last gave up early due to his experience, is it fair to judge Azrael by that same level?
why would he say "that day's lynch" instead of "I think he's town" about you?
when it was decided you should be lynched, Kaba deflected by associating you with Killjoy... and we all know what he flipped.
lack of input or transparency is more of the problem with lurkers, not their activity. echoing the opinions of others isn't input.
Be grateful, always."
Jenna not dying
@dawn
Yes. 3 roleblocking roles and one was scum.
Joeterry and lastwhisper are our protectives. Plus you and grape sorta. Az is scum.
See:
What are you trying to say here? That I should assume newbs are scum if they do something that would be called a gambit in an experienced player's hands? That sounds like you're ending up on the wrong side of wine, in excruciating hangover territory.
I know what my role did?
My role is 100% real but I dont like that your confirming that.
I dont think you will ever be killed, because I think your scum. If your town it benefits scum to have u dead.
I really want to hammer cythare right now, but i cant till someone else vote him. Though your an option as well.
- my roleblocking is considerably a protective, but you say I'm neutral.
- reviver is more of a half-protective. add together with bodyguard and you get 1 full protective.
even with your logic I don't see what makes Azrael scum, since there shouldn't be a problem for 2 protectives.
unless you think I'm town.
seen them way back but not convinced. largely subjective and nothing that denotes influence over the current gamestate.
what I'm trying to say is.. Azrael's suicide talk isn't strange coming from him, but it is when it's from you. Last has made similar comments about wanting to die, which is also common coming from him. if you want to compare those 2, then you'll need to consider the difference in their experiences before you dissect things further. when I compare the way they said it, to the way you said it, it's shady coming from you (and you did use that to shade Azrael's suicide talk).
it doesn't look like you're trying to find the reason behind an action, only that an action is scummy. too much influence from Last?
why don't you vote and let someone else hammer? helpful for PoE if you aren't the one to close the case.
and why do you think scum would want Phoenix dead? isn't Axel a better option?
Be grateful, always."
For glorious emphasis on how to actually analyze people.
And joe was the best protective role itg even if az was somehow telling the truth
Shinichi
tomsloger
Jenna Tolaria
lastwhisper
Cythare Megiddo
dawningbluesky
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
Axelrod
We assume there are at least three scum left here. I have seen no basis to believe there is a neutral in this game. The people I am taking off the list first:
Me: you can fight me on this if you wish.
DBS: for obvious reasons. She RBed Kaba on the night there was no kill. Kaba was scum. Town or ultimate gambit. And as far as the gambit possibility, she didn't even vote for Kaba initially, which seems to point away from that even very small possibility.
Last Whisper: for almost equally obvious reasons. Unless he is part of a 3-way team with Jenna and Tom, he saved Jenna's life last night when the scum attempted to kill her.
Jenna: again, unless there's a big gambit happening here, the scum tried to kill her last night. Now, LW doesn't have to be part of that gambit for her to be scum, in this case it's just Tom, but it still seems rather unlikely. Also, she claimed Tracker and fingered Phoenix in such a way as to make her very unlikely to be scum.
Leaving:
Shinichi
tomsloger
Cythare
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
Of this group, the one I find the least likely to be scum is Shin. It is partly his claim, and partly the way he has played. Not that he has been super-correct in his reads or anything like that, but (1) He allied DBS the night DBS Rbed Kaba, when a scum could easily have justified Betraying her there. (2) he was also on the Kaba Lynch. He's also been arguing with DBS soooooo much. I feel like 1/2 the thread is just those two. Seems a bit much for scum. Though that's not really definitive or anything. Anyway, I'm taking him out, at least for now.
tomsloger
Cythare
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
Now we have a group of 7 people, with at least three assumed scum in it. These are odds we can work with.
At the very least:
Jenna Tolaria, LnGrrrR, Axelrod, Phoenix-Fire, Cythare, Osieorb18, Iso, Shinichi, Azrael, tomsloger (maybe)...
His first post of D3 was interesting for what it didn't say more than for what it did. Osie had no reaction to the fact there was no Night-kill. I find that weird. My gut says Town is more likely to say something than nothing, because Town is going to be relieved/happy whereas Scum is going to be confused and cautious. But that's just a gut feeling.
In #5851, after DBS's claim, Osie declares he is "not opposed" to a Kaba lynch, but he is keeping his vote on whoever he was voting for (Tom/Terry?). That could be scum reaction.
But then, he almost immediately changes his mind and votes for Kaba in #5853. This was 5th vote, I believe. What changed? It appears he read my post of #5838 in the interim and was persuaded the odds favored scum-Kaba. Hrmmmmm. Again, I can't call this a super-Townie reaction, coming relatively late, but at least he's voting correctly now.
But then, #5975, this is after Terry's claim, Osie comes back and Unvotes Kaba. All he says is that he doesn't like the wagon. Bad dog. This could certainly be a scum-buddy opportunistically jumping off.
He then posts a lot of unhelpful GIFs. This isn't scummy per-se. But it ain't useful either.
He gives a big reads post in #6067, which is + just for doing it. But his biggest scum read appears to be Tom. And his post has DBS/Terry/Kaba all under suspicion to some degree. He then has some thoughts on Tom/Terry/Iso/Az that my notes say I cannot even parse.
Expands on his Tom scum-read in #6077. The crux of it appears to be that when Tom isn't shinning through as Town and hasn't been night-killed, it means he's scum. Don't like the meta read here, regardless of my opinion on Tom. It's kind of the way he's doing it. Like, he's not arguing that Tom is scum because Tom hasn't been doing much this game. Or has been actively scummy. Or he's scum because his reads have been wrong. It's he's scum because he's just not more obviously Town. And also still alive. I feel like this is the kind of scum read one could make on a scum-buddy. Just because it's super weak attack for a scum to make on a Town.
As I think I noted before, Osie #6136 strongly suggests that Osie is not scum-buddy with Az. And I think it looks worse for Osie-scum if Az were to flip Townie, given that Kaba was the alternate.
And then, I note in #6370 that Osie seems to flip his opinion on Az a little too quickly. I'm not sure why he's even engaging Az and responding the way he's responding here. Almost feels like he's trying to buddy Az.
Then, Kaba claimed and Osie's first post after the claim said nothing about it. That's -- I feel like Town would be more likely to express an opinion there.
He doesn't vote Kaba until #6419, I think, after several have now commented on how bad Kaba's claim was. Later he remarks that he is "down" with lynching Kaba, but ALSO says he's "not opposed" to a DBS lynch down the line. Which, frankly, is not a reasonable position to take. DBS role-blocking Kaba is not a scum-scum interaction.
Osie was onboard for the Az derail. Unvoting Kaba in #6627 and voting for Tom. He does note that he would go back to voting Kaba before a No Lynch, but this is kind of weak.
Osie ultimately delivers the hammer in #6649. Not sure how to read his "**** it" reasoning. Like, what did that mean? He wasn't sure, but "**** it?" Hammering scum is good, but this could still have been a bus vote. Osie wavered a lot.
Not too much I saw that was Town+ for Osie on D3, at least as far as his interactions around Kaba. I also have a note, that of people who could be lying or at least leaving stuff out of their claims, Osie is right there at the top, along with Phoenix. Clearly he has a Neighborizer ability, but he's been pretty cavalier about using it. Personally, I would worry about going too low on BP, but Osie doesn't seem to have those concerns. I particularly wondered about his interaction with Phoenix. Phoenix supposedly has NO use for BP. And he's got a lot of it. And yet, when paired, they chose to Ally each other, when it seems like it would have made a lot more sense for Osie to Betray just to get a boost.
So, Phoenix/Osie possibly a pair. Osie not with AZ.
Mechanically confirmed issues are largely subjective? Okay, so you are pocketed beyond rationality by Azrael.
These are MECHANICALLY CONFIRMED:
2. Pushing people towards Grapefruit.
3. Waffling on Killjoy.
4. Pulling people away from Kabazame.
Do you think that one of the most experienced players was just wrong three times (and a lot more than that; he's hard-pushed pretty much every player in the thread, including all the rest of your "confirmed town"), and has a role that is IDENTICAL to a hard-to-access, threshold-based part of someone else's role, but with a cost? Shinichi's roleblocker ability is limited in a way that fits with the game, and fits in with a model that Bur would draw from, an Iso role that I had in the past. Your roleblocker ability is limited in a distinct way that fits with the game, and fits in with Terry's role. Az's ability does not fit in, is a reasonably common style of scum claim, and can very simply not be proven without a lot of time that we do not have, have NEVER had, in this game.
I've been defeatist as town in other games... Someone even made a comment about it once or twice. I also am a firm believer in telling people to vote rather than shade, whether they are shading me or shading someone else.
Do scum do 1-for-1 on your site a lot? There was a comment in another game here "Scum don't do 1-for-1." Because they don't. Az doesn't want to suicide. He wants to suggest suicide as a way to manipulate people, but he will not go through with it even if every town player in the thread asks him to do so. And he wants to use that to get multiple mislynches. Which he has already partially succeeded at.
Meanwhile, I'm saying "1-for-1, lynch me, I'll flip town, and then you can go lynch Azrael." There are enough town, that as town, I don't need to be alive. But leaving scum alive as you are doing is dangerous. Being pocketed by scum is dangerous. Heck, we can skip the middleman, and just lynch Azrael. And if he flips town, then go ahead and lynch me. I'll even help you out and vote myself in either case if I know that someone who I am something like 95% sure is scum will be lynched. And you, who relies on meta... One of Azrael's primary strategies, in my experience with him, is pocketing. I've played with him before, he did the same. And he's pocketing people here. I'm honestly surprised that Iso of all people isn't seeing through it.
Now who's being
???
I have
I'm desperately asking that you remove scum. I'm perfectly willing to vote for Cythare on Day 5. Heck, if you want us to lynch Cythare, if you want us to lynch me, I'll vote as people desire. But Azrael is just as confirmed scum as the four of you are confirmed town. Azrael is sitting back and laughing as half of town mindlessly does his bidding.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Cythare
Iso
Azrael
LnGrrrR
osieorb18
Phoenix-Fire
It is also somewhat interesting to me that within this 7 group there is a strong anti-Azrael coalition of Tom/Iso/Osie/Phoenix. Given my feelings that these people probably aren't scum with Az (less Iso than the others though). What does that mean? Az is scum, and the other scum are then: Cyth and LnGrrr (and/or Iso) purely by default?
Or, Az is Town, and the scum are trying really hard to kill him.
One of these scenarios certainly seems simpler than the other. And lynching Cyth. could potentially be useful here. Because if Cyth is scum, it does fit right with the Az-scum scenario.
But if Cyth flips Town, what does that mean? I have trouble coming up with enough people to be scum-buddies with Az in that scenario. It would almost have to be LnGrrr and Iso (in a huge mutual bus for a long time - until recently, I suppose).
I'm just wildly speculating out loud now. Don't mind me....
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