MTG Salvation

Quote from Shinichi »

I am not gonna lie but that ISO on tom is very convincing, and ironically he talks about tom theory about wanting to lynch me to confirm dbs. That reason is why i was reluctant to claim because if i flip town which I will, automically that make DBS the bad guy but what if shes not the bad guy? She would be condemned to death, now its different if DBS is pushing for my lynch but at the same time im not sure if shes doing that because shes town or because shes scum if shes scum then her push on me will lead to her own death,

let's say I successfully lynched you... what would you say in twilight - would you say I could be town, or would you say I should be lynched to be on the safe side? how am I 'condemned to death' for trying to lynch you? and, why would a push from me lead to my own death, if I was scum? it would be the opposite since I have a team to back me up.
doubt I'll back off from you even with such a theory, since it's just wine.

Quote from Azrael »

Anyways, read the case. Devil is in the details on this one.

I can agree with it. don't like how Tom keeps calling me a neutral, then diverting attention from Dawn/Shin.
Dawn/Iso killing roles have a higher chance of hitting town/tpr, compared to Dawn/Shin RBers which is more likely to hit scum.
but mechanics aside, I don't like how he called Iso out when he's looking town now, and even back then. made a dichotomy out of Iso/Azrael too much for comfort too.

so hmmm... I'll be leaving vote on Kaba, unless Axel thinks otherwise. if there's a switch, I'll be going with Tom or Shin.

the previous phase is like a paradox...
"Kaba votes/thinks Terry is scum for trying to lynch Phoenix. Shinichi wants Phoenix lynched and sides Terry."

I can wine myself that BP Taker could be town who fakeclaimed (town fakeclaims exist) to not be lynched..or Iso just faked having BP stolen. Terry could be town who blocked the NK. best WIFOM scenario ever.

then again if I look at mechanics...
Kaba/Terry have titles of legit roles. those who flipped have easily-understood titles and roles. Kaba's title hints at RB... that will resolve the Dawn/Shin mess in the process. I'm willing to go for a Kaba lynch.

Ok, we have 14 left. Worst case scenario, Axel dies after we mislynch someone. We are down to 12 town against an assumed 4 scum. Scum successfully kill town tonight, we go to 11 v 4 with 6 to lynch. If we mislynch tomorrow plus suffer a successful nk it goes to 9 v 4.

That means we have 2 mislynches left, one before we get to lylo.

Quote from TheRealStinkyJoeTerry »

Ok, we have 14 left. Worst case scenario, Axel dies after we mislynch someone. We are down to 12 town against an assumed 4 scum. Scum successfully kill town tonight, we go to 11 v 4 with 6 to lynch. If we mislynch tomorrow plus suffer a successful nk it goes to 9 v 4.

That means we have 2 mislynches left, one before we get to lylo.

I'm not sure which is worse.. more corpses means a smaller pool to sort, but a lack of Axel's death means more for us to figure out. we can always lynch Iso and activate his vengeful ability (if that's how it works). gonna take a wild guess that Iso could be a scum kamikaze, if 2 mislynches are left. no idea.

Quote from TheRealStinkyJoeTerry »

Ok, we have 14 left. Worst case scenario, Axel dies after we mislynch someone. We are down to 12 town against an assumed 4 scum. Scum successfully kill town tonight, we go to 11 v 4 with 6 to lynch. If we mislynch tomorrow plus suffer a successful nk it goes to 9 v 4.

That means we have 2 mislynches left, one before we get to lylo.

I guess 3 including today right?

@dbs Honestly I dont know what I would say in twilight, only thing that concerns me is what happens afterwards once people see my flip. I mean if I flip town I dont see why your would be ok being in that situation if you are as you say town as well, as well if your scum I dont think your buddies are blantly going to defend you when you pushed a dichotomy so hard to get me lynched just for me to flip town, in that situation your def scum.

Its wine and wifom to assume I have to be scum because of the existence of 2 roles that can possible be town aligned together.

-Doesnt matter which is town or which is scum if bp taker exists then either its scum or bp giver is scum.
-The Mafia kill being stopped is not wifom because no mafia would risk not making a night kill, they gain very little from a situation like that.
-I still want phoenix lynched because ever since he claimed hes just been riding on said role.

@terry

-Its to early to worry about said worse case scenarios
-Can you just hammer already do you not think u blocked scum? I mean its been 11 days its not like the phase just started at this point.

Kaba analysis next.

One note for Shin before I begin. I do think that DBS and Terry probably played a role in what happened last night. That's exactly why I was pushing to wait. Because if Axel dies, that makes Kaba more likely to be innocent. If there's no death, that hurts Kaba significantly. I want to know which of their abilities explains what happened. Because one of them looks bad for Kaba, and one doesn't.

Commencing.

Oh wow. 36 posts? 36?!

Ok, obviously, that's horrendous, whatever his alignment. It also means that his disappearance as the clock winds down is par for the course, however.

Quote from Kabazame »

Hello everyone! I should have time to get caught up tomorrow, so bear with me a little bit. Hopefully I can offer a fresh perspective on the game

*shrug*

Quote from Kabazame »

I'm not caught up yet but I have read like the first 6 or so pages and everything since I replaced in. I want to post something so I'll just note my initial thoughts:

-LW is extremely reactive, which makes me think he's paranoid. This is often a scum trait but could also be new player nerves (whether that's new to mafia or new to the community)

-Dawn's claim is a mess. Not so much the role itself but how it all went down. It seems scummy but also like... I feel like scum should be more careful than that. In a lot of cases I see that these players end up being town, so maybe letting him prove himself is the right move.

-I don't understand what any of Jenna's posts mean. At best she's unhelpful town but I'm leaning scum.

-I'm highly suspicious of Obie. Seems to post a lot of fluff, posts that don't really mean much or move the game along but make her(him?) look active, especially early on.

-I like Axelrod's effort. Whether it was going out of his way to clarify things with the host or using his phone to post cause he couldn't log in at work. He seems to have more drive than I typically see from scum. Feeling town on him atm

I'll go into more detail and such after I get through those 20 pages of stuff I missed, but I wanted to get something down since it's been like 2 days already. Back to reading~

First time around, I liked this post, felt like he was trying. I think I still do. It's pretty stream of consciousness stuff - there's moments where you can see the wheels in his brain turning, as he's trying to describe stuff he sees, like the reads on Axel, Dawn, and LW.

Quote from Kabazame »

Yeah, how do you think it feels to replace into this mess? lol

I'm not going to lie, I still have like 20 pages to slog through. I haven't had a lot of time, and a lot of these posts aren't easy to read. Not only that, the game is still moving pretty quick so it takes me a while to read the new posts, let alone going back!

Anyway, I think LnGrrR's claim makes sense with his opening post. He did say "Btw, if you betray I am going to assume you are scum unless you note the reasons publicly, ahead of time. I will be paying attention.", the last line especially seems like he has some way of knowing if people betray or not. I suppose the role could be scum, but I haven't read him as scum outside of that.

Osie I still think is very shady. He gave up the Lngrr thing really quick and I don't really feel like he's actually scum hunting. I'll try to prepare a more detailed analysis of this but basically I'm seeing a lot of faked activity and it doesn't seem right.

I thought Phoenix(?) made a great point about LW trying to sell that Iso/DBS thing. I kind of think DBS and Iso are both town and he was assuming a DBS lynch today and setting up Iso for tomorrow. Of the two leading wagons I prefer LW but I think more people should look at Osie

I tend to make my reads based on reactions to my own posts, so it's been quite a struggle to get my footing while being so far behind :/

Here, too, I completely buy that Kaba is feeling overwhelmed. Which any player would, but there's...like a good-natured attitude going on behind it? Like, he's not struggling for an excuse, he's just grinning and bearing it.

The Lngrr read here. It'd be easy for a scum gunning for an easy mislynch to just go along with tossing Lngrr under the bus, and say, "oops! Guess I should have read more, sorry guys." He doesn't do that, he sticks up for him and gives very specific reasons for doing so.

Quote from Kabazame »

oh am I on osi because of Blues? I mean I guess it's fine cause he's my top read

On the other hand those 3 votes that just piled on make me uneasy

Unvote

for now. I'm going to at least prepare an actual case on Osi before I leave my vote there.

And, look at this guy who's actively reevaluating whether the wagon that he himself has been pushing is a good idea, based on wagon speed, and acknowledging the limitations on his own read. *nods slowly, smiles*

Good stuff here.

Quote from Kabazame »

Can you explain this? I wouldn't say he's "doing nutin" and he certainly is asking people to make cases for him.

He's very clearly putting the work in, reading posts, ISOs, etc. I mean that post was pretty big if nothing else

If Kaba is concerned about the wagon speed growth, this next poke at DV's rationale for the Osie vote is an entirely logical progression from that, and it's a good question he poses. Clearly, he's not doing nothing - he might have been plain-sighting lurk as Kaba originally feared (I don't think so), so DV's wording could have used some scrutiny.

Quote from Kabazame »

Not feeling the Jenna lynch. I always look at things from a "why would scum do this?" point of view, and while Jenna has been generally unhelpful and her posting style is bizarre, it doesn't seem like a scum play. Now the common response to this is "scum would do it to make you think they're town, and it's clearly working!", to which I say she still has 5 votes and is likely to be lynched even if I think she's not scum, it's not really working overall.

That said, I wouldn't be totally opposed to her lynch compared to someone who is actually contributing, so I would vote her over any of my other town reads/No lynch

@grapefruit

I'm probably about 4/10 caught up, lol. But I think it's fine to play "in the moment" and go back as necessary to support my reads. I will eventually finish reading everything but I'd rather be here and provide reads more or less in real time than be stuck 1000 posts behind.

LW - I have commented on. I think he was very reactive early and I didn't like how he tried to set up a Iso lynch if dawn flips town. Seems like a scummy move. Of the likely lynches this is the one I feel best about.

LnG - I also mentioned, I think his play so far has matched up with his claim, which I think is more town than scum. Overall reading more town on him.

I don't like Osie's giant posts. It makes it hard to read through and a lot of it seems unnecessary. It feels like they are trying to hide behind these walls, and even I found myself skimming through them sometimes just because I got impatient.

I like the thoughtfulness regarding his reasoning on Jenna, here.

Quote from Kabazame »

In that scenario yes, Iso would be town. There is the possibility that LW is being honest though, so it's not like Iso is cleared or anything. He hasn't done anything to make me think he is town on his own though. I don't know him/have never played with him, so I can't commented on what Azreal said about this being unusual for him, but I do get the feeling that he's not really putting his heart in this game. That doesn't necessarily mean he's scum though, town can be apathetic too.

As I said before, scum read on Osie. I'm seeing a lot of fluff, not much game solving, and not really pushing reads. Like Osie backed off of LnGrrR really fast, which isn't necessarily bad but it didn't look like someone who actually believed LnGrrR was scum (or didn't really want to lynch him).

Measured, fair reads on Iso, Osie.

Quote from Kabazame »

Iso did say he can't really post on weekends, so I don't expect him to be around until tomorrow

One thing that sticks out is him buddying to Azreal. I get the feeling Az is a strong town player (though I've never played with him, he seems like it!). There are several times he does this:

"@Az, @Axel: Let's mindmeld. Tell me where you're at and why. I think you two have a good chance of being town and I feel like you're two of the stronger analysts in the game - so let's figure this out."

He first says he is "mostly fine" with Az, then "Az doesn't smell like his scummy self" and then he says Az has a good chance of being town, never explaining what he likes about him though.

"Hi, please don’t answer questions directed at other players. Thanks!"

The man who asked the question was Azreal. Why not let Azreal tell him not to answer? It's subtle but perhaps trying to get on Az's good side because he fears him as a strong town player?

"@Az: What are your thoughts on my reasoning behind my reads, whether stated outright or implied? I think my stances on the game are pretty apparent at this point. I'm trying not to get too hung up on the details of making massive posts or PBPAs or ISOs or whatever because I'm still trying to enjoy the game, but get my thoughts out there. Does that make sense?

Anyway, do you trust me? And if so, can I betray you tonight? It's important that we get my ability active ASAP."

If Iso is this force of nature as Town that can figure out the scum team in 100 posts, like I'm hearing, why does he seek vindication from Az? I imagine he has a lot more confidence in his ability than to need Az to back him up. Looks like he's trying to get into Az's circle of town.

"Az, you don’t have to pretend to scumread me to keep me alive."

Very confident that Az is town but still hasn't explained why. Feels like buddying to me

"Az/Axelrod - From early on, I've felt no guile from these two - they're being fairly straightforward in their thought processes and the way they're seeing and approaching the game. I have no issues with basically anything either of them have done."

Along with all the other stuff, he puts Azreal at the top of his town list, and his reasoning is just that he's straightforward and he has no issues with. I don't feel like he really has enough reasoning to be this confident that Azreal is town, especially before he turned it up a few days ago.

D_V votes Azreal and puts him on a scum list, Iso finds the time to call him out on it specifically

"@Az: ... Also, you're being a really bad townbuddy right now by calling me scum and I don't appreciate it. "

More buddying Az

Jenna calls Az scum but says she will Ally him, to which Az replies "lol". Iso quotes this and says +1


I understand Iso is on limited time, but he uses an awful lot of that time buddying to Azreal and I'm not a fan. I haven't played with Iso before so I tried looking at him as someone without that lens, and he still looks pretty scummy buddying up to Az this hard.

What's the vote count? I would vote him but I'm not sure how close he is to being hammered

More thoughtfulness on Iso, and expressing a willingness to hammer him depending on VC. Boy, would that have sent this game in a different direction.

Quote from Kabazame »

Vote Iso

So do you think he should just be excused? That's a dangerous precedent regardless

Votes, and thinks it's dangerous to let Iso slide on durdling.

Quote from Kabazame »

Because doing nothing is not pro-town regardless of his usual playstyle. I think the argument about this being much different than his usual style is just a supporting point. As I said, I've never played with him before and he still looks scummy, so I imagine that's not the only mark against him.

Furthermore, there are a lot of reasons to vote/pressure players, not just lynching them (and no one is calling to end the day right now). Maybe the pressure will get him going, or his reactions will offer insight to his alignment. Either way, it's better than just letting him coast.

Argues for pressure to kick him into gear, if nothing else. Again, natural pro-town thought.

Quote from Kabazame »

You and D_V are only looking at one dimension. It's not only his reputation, or his lack of contribution, or his buddying to Azreal. It's a combination of several things
I don't think it's unreasonable to hold different players to different standards. That said, there are other factors other than just contribution level.

*nods*

Quote from Kabazame »

so flipping from confident town read on Az to voting him seems like a huge overreaction, and I don't really like it. That said I don't think he is the lynch today because he is getting started now, plus I doubt he'll live long if he's town cause scum will want him gone before he can accumulate points

Unvote

Still have a few pages to read but I support the LW lynch. Consider my vote on him in spirit (I don't want to risk an early hammer)

Not a fan of the vote change, but I can understand the rationale given. Even less of a fan of the switch to LW. Not sure how that occurred.

Quote from Kabazame »

Why is Iso tied with LW again?

Vote Lastwhisper

We got Iso going and he's actually playing now, so pressuring him already helped. Haven't loved his response but I can understand why he would be irritated, so I'm fine with giving him another day to really get going. With Iso a lot of what I saw CAN be explained as being disengaged, which may be the result of his time constraints. On the other hand, LW is just plain scummy any way you slice it.

So yeah, Iso lynch wouldn't be the worst thing but I much prefer LW today.

Ok, here's the explanation. I guess "just plain scummy" is not a terrible descriptor of LW, honestly. And given Iso's reputation, it's traditional to give analysts who are derping some time to underp, before murdering them.

Quote from Kabazame »

It's like 2 hours to deadline with two clear wagons, obviously I'm going to vote one of them. I'm not going to derail everything to go after someone else.
Besides that I called LW scummy in my first post of the game and said he was the lynch I was most comfortable with earlier before I decided to pressure Iso.
AND I said I was going to vote him 6 hours ago but I didn't want to risk the hammer

So yeah I don't know what you mean by sheeping!

Anyway, his scumminess isn't related to being uninterested or different from normal like Iso, where a lot of the arguments against him have been meta. That's what I mean by anyway you slice it

Solid, detailed explanation on LW vote.

Quote from Kabazame »

When there's 8 hours left in the day? Of course not. Ending day earlier is objectively anti-town because it robs Town of information. Considering there's been about 8 pages since I said that I would say it's a good thing I didn't hammer then

Yeah.

Quote from Kabazame »

Vote Lastwhisper

Somehow even scummier today than yesterday. Betrays Shin who he was town reading and doesn't use his ability because he wasn't confident in any Town reads. How do you go an entire Day/two weeks/75 pages and not have a single strong Town read? and why did you betray Shin when he mentioned he had a threshold ability AND you were town reading him? I could understand not using your ability if you allied and we afraid of being betrayed and losing 2 BP but because you betrayed it doesn't make sense to hold your ability, especially when there were threshold abilities claimed by players you were town reading

Buy the conviction here.

Quote from Kabazame »

Yes, and you claimed a threshold ability didn't you? As did Iso, who he was calling town at EoD

I don't even know what you mean by problematic, but I'm focused on lynching scum, that's all!

*shrug*

Quote from Kabazame »

My point is that he didn't use his ability because he was skeptical of everyone, despite townreading you really hard. and his gift ability is really helpful for someone with a threshold ability such as yours, so it doesn't make sense for him to not use it.
There are no guarantees in Mafia obviously, so I just have to go with my strongest read!

I totally agree with you that pressuring other players is a good strategy! On the other hand, we can't let Whisp fall off the radar completely, so we have to keep that balance. I like your response overall though and I'm pretty sold on you as Town at this point.

I was just going to ask if Kaba was from Japan, because with the exclamation points, the bubbly, gung ho optimism, he sometimes writes the way anime characters (often the heroic protagonists) talk. Then I noticed his location setting (Japan). So, that makes sense. (Example: There are no guarantees in mafia obviously, so I just have to go with my strongest read! I totally agree with you that pressuring other players is a good strategy!)

Quote from Kabazame »

I don't see scum Azreal at all. He's put in a lot of effort and all of his reads have made sense to me except his LW read, which I don't really get. I mean yeah he lead a mislynch on GF but that happens. I don't really see any other marks against him

Arigato.

Quote from Kabazame »

My mistake, I thought you meant that you didn't know about Dawn's threshold. Not noticing Shin's is understandable (in fact I may even be wrong)

*shrug*

Quote from Kabazame »

@Phoenix, if multiple people die at night, would you be tracked to all of them? Also, when did you visit Grapefruit to get his role info? Or do you only visit the dead players, and if so would lynches still provide role info but not Night Kills?

We could test this is Jenna tracks him again, DBS shoots someone, and there's a Mafia kill. In this case, Phoenix should be tracked to both, right? If not, he's lying. This would be hard to pull off depending on what powers scum has but if we can it should prove Phoenix one way or the other

Missed this suggstion first time around, that's pretty cute. That would definitely verify the ability. Hmm. Clever.

Quote from Kabazame »

Jenna didn't track him to Grapefruit though, so it's weird. If Dawn can't shoot right now then I misunderstood. I'm not sure how you can see that as a slip. Or would you call when you misunderstood that Iso was claiming vig when he already retracted it a slip too?

Phoenix's role is very convenient so I'm suspicious of it. I wasn't reading him as scum, but how everything went down with the track is not a good look.

Quote from Kabazame »

To be clear I don't think Phoenix is the lynch today. The whole scum team is still alive and his role is too valuable if he's telling the truth. But I do think it's important to discuss it

Yeah. I had those thoughts too.

Quote from Kabazame »

I don't see an issue with multiple protection claims because of the BP aspect in this game. Even if Dawn, Shin, and Az are all telling the truth, it's not like they can act every night due to the BP costs (for Shin and Az) or the thresholds Dawn has to be at. So maybe there are an abundance of roles to make up for the limited uses? Besides, we don't know what kind of powerful roles scum might have.

Regardless lynching the claimed doctor is a terrible idea. At least give him one night phase and if he's still alive re-evaluate. I don't think Azreal has been scummy anyway and I have thought the lynch was bad from the beginning. There's no need for scum to put as much effort into scumhunting and figuring out the game as he has.

Right?

Quote from Kabazame »

If Phoenix is indeed scum than KJ is almost definitely scum with him. Trying to argue that Occam's Razor doesn't point to Phoenix killing DV is ludicrous.

Phoenix was tracked to a dead DV. What are the explanations for this?
A) He killed DV
B) He has some crazy role no one has seen before where he passively visits every night kill victim

One of these is clearly simpler than the other

Yeah, as far as it goes.

Quote from Kabazame »

Why do you think his role "seems legit"? You said you've never seen anything like it. No one else has either. History points to Bur usually posting flips. What exactly about his role seems legit?

I'm not saying he is definitely lying, but I want to know what gives you confidence he's telling the truth.

Good distinction in last sentence.

Quote from Kabazame »

@KJ Yes, Coroner is an uncommon role. Passive coroner is pretty much unheard of as far as I know. Furthermore, typically a coroner has to pick his target so he would only get one reveal a night. Phoenix's role gets all of them and the lynch as well, while the Coroner would typically have to use his Night Action to get a flip. Also because it's a passive, I don't think you can role block it (like you can't roleblock Bulletproof) though I could be mistaken.

So his role is a lot stronger than your typical Coroner, and apparently Bur has never used a No Reveal setup before. So there are a lot of assumptions to be made in order for Phoenix to be Town. What I mean by "how does it seem legit?" is that all there really is to support his claim is that he said it. There's no precedent for this role. There is however countless examples of scum being tracked to the night kill. That's why it's the simplest explanation.

At least you do seem to be thinking about this clearly. At first I thought you were just blindly defending him but I'm starting to see a real thought process behind it now.

I like the back off, here. He's not just gunning for a reason to kill KJ.

Quote from Kabazame »

It's also weird that his ability passes by betrayal. Why would someone betray a first responder and take his job? Does that make sense with the flavor?

Also, that means scum could get his role right? Not only does that mean his role could just as easily be scum (because scum can get it anyway), but also allowing scum to have a role that punishes town for lynching them is bastard isn't it? At least I think so. Since most of us agree that Phoenix's role helps town, it would be bad taste to put it in the hands of scum.

Am I crazy here or does that seem unfair?

Yet more original thoughts.

Quote from Kabazame »

@Joe Terry
If Azrael is lying and the real doctor dies tonight after lynching Phoenix, we'll never know. This would be a free lynch with role flips but without we have nothing to go on. Scum benefits from this obviously.
Furthermore, if scum has a rolecop they pretty much get infinite use Janitor which is insanely powerful.

If Phoenix is telling the truth, his role is very beneficial to town, not only in providing information but also preventing scum from using the confusion to their benefit. Thus there's no reason to lynch him now when the rest of the scum team is still at large anyway.

This leads me to two theories:
Phoenix is town and JoeTerry is trying to kill him to make the game no flip, under the guise of his role being beneficial to scum. Terry knows this is not the case, but he's playing dumb so he doesn't get crucified after Phoenix flips

Phoenix is scum and JoeTerry is trying to make it not look suspicious when he isn't Night Killed, or he's trying to bus him to get town cred. Whether the lynch goes through or not it's a win-win

either way I think Terry is scum because he's pushing the Phoenix lynch too hard today when it's not the right play yet, and because this thing about the role being more beneficial to scum than town is pure rubbish. I don't think this is just him being wrong either, he's

Also he betrayed me Frown
Vote TheRealStinkyJoeTerry

I have more to say on him but I don't have time right now. Expect a big post later tonight!

Heh. I understand the view, although I'd disagree that it takes into account terry's personality.

Quote from Kabazame »

Hello I'm not dead! (although my computer was) Looks like a replacement wasn't found so I am back baby

Now what did I miss

Heh.

Quote from Kabazame »

Nothing. I didn't have access to the forum so I couldn't even submit an action!

I guess a claim is in order. I am Lotus, Town Prostitute. For 1 BP I can target someone and see if they get up at night. I haven't acted yet

Quote from Kabazame »

Night 1 I was worried I would be betrayed because I wasn't very active (I only start with 3 BP btw)so betrayal and acting would leave me at 1, unable to act and also prone to death by betrayal the next nght. Decided not to use it

Night 2 I wasn't here

@Joe I don't know what to tell you lol apparently my feminine charms transcends gender and species

I wonder if some of the way this claim came out wasn't just a 2nd language issue? Like, he's obviously fluent, but the connotations of "get up at night" might have possibly eluded him.

Quote from Kabazame »

Wait what? Did you think I said "get it up" as in get an erection? lmao

"Get up" meaning if they performed a night action. Have you never seen the role prostitute before? Basically, I'm just told if the target acted that night, but not any details about what they did, who they targeted, etc.

I don't have any behavioral issues with this post. I'm reserving judgment as to mechanical/setup issues.

Ok. Overall, I'm saying a ton of townie tells in here, and nothing that raises eyebrows from me. He's had computer issues, and he's new to the forum, he's a replacement, it's a massive thread, and it's a 2nd language. All of that suffices to completely explain his level of activity, I think. Especially when you factor in that when he is actually here, he is clearly have a ton of intelligent and original thoughts of his own to contribute.

The tracker solution as to Phoenix is quite clever, actually.

I don't see any reason to lynch him today, and I don't know if I'd support a lynch on him even if Axel doesn't die.

Much rather take out Tom, here, between the two of them. I think Kaba was just Tom and Iso's latest victim of opportunity.

Summary of the high points on Tom.

-If Tom = Scum, then Osie is more likely town.
-Tom's rationale for DV vote not terribly convincing or truthful
-Tom's strategy as scum is to be likable and normal, and his strategy as town is to be a little bizarre and funny
-Tom tries to convince Terry that he's town using jedi mind trick
-Heavily disagrees with KJ's reasoning, then compliments him anyways. Manipulative.
-Attacks Iso - looks like bus to me, given that he backed off of his very strong Iso read later.
-Consistently leaving himself room to manuever off and on wagons, hedging reads.
-Tom thinks people town-reading him are dumber than people scum-reading or cautious of him.
-Tom misinterprets Lngrr's views on the A/B game to say he didn't have a game-solving mindset, when Lngrr was explaining what his mindsest was.
-Exaggerates and lies with his "people who do this are 90% scum" line about one of lngrr's posts. People post that stuff all the time, means nothing.
-Has a few minor to moderate town tells sprinkled in, but nothing that wows my socks off.
-Sounds like Tom did a threat assessment on DBS, and wrote her off as a high-powered neutral.
-If Tom scum, Shin more likely town.
-Opposes notion of an az/iso dichotomy for no reason given, despite saying we're opposite aligned at the time.
-Lots of hedging and qualifiers on his meta reread on Iso, as he softens his attack there.
-Something about LW's post regarding and Tom and Jenna team really set Tom off.
-Tom goes through a very long, convoluted post theorizing about who killed DV and why, concluding that I did. This type of analysis is frequently used by scum, and rarely by townies. Timing of pivot to me is opportunistic.
-Attempts to "confirm" Jenna as town, because of her tracker result.
-Tom pushes hard on the KJ case, because he didn't react as he *ought* to have reacted given his role-claim. Unfortunately, this is enough to get KJ lynched. Prior to the lynch, however, Tom unvotes to avoid getting his hands dirty.
-Tom tries to use mod-gaming to argue that the town has too many claimed kill-prevention effects, therefore we should lynch one of the protective roles. (Point I hadn't thought about - this isn't consistent with his belief that DBS is neutral. That should resolve the discrepancy, in his mind.)
-Tom walks back his "Shin definitely town-slipped" moment to shade shin, as pressure builds on him.
-Tom comes up with this weird "Az is the scum RBer and trying to lynch shin" theory, that's completely wacked out.
-Tom walks back his view that Kaba/terry should be reserved for later, because the town is about to go ahead and pull the trigger anyways.

Some other general observations: we have a crazy amount of opportunistic plays occurring here, and opportunistic shifts in his reads. He's inclined to use mod-gaming, wild speculation, and critiquing others' play to get them mislynched. He stayed off all the D1 wagons to avoid getting his hands dirty, and stayed off the D2 KJ Wagon too, even though he kicked it off, voted him, and was the major driver of the wagon.

Vote Confirmed.

Reread Phoenix. He might be scum. Most of his posts sound like an actor portraying an overzealous prosecutor, is the best way I can describe it. It's possibly personality, but combined with the coroner role-claim...that's kind of a coincidence that stretches belief.

That would tend to cast Jenna in a good light, unless we get concerned regarding a possible gambit. Which, call me paranoid, but I actually am worried about that. Prior to rereading Jenna, I'd lean towards Phoenix as the more likely scum in that pair, though. About to reread Jenna now.

*rereads* Man, she's just so...different. The Shakespearean posting style, the high-falutin' vocabulary...And it's often a tendency to react negatively to different as scummy. But I think we're really just looking at personality issues, here.

That makes my top three scum picks Tom, Iso, and Phoenix.

My picks for the last three would be Shin, Cyth, or Axel. Feel like I should be able to rule out Shin. Axel...I haven't seen a scum game from him in a very long time to compare to. Put a gun to my head, I'd say Tom, Iso, Phoenix, Cyth, but that 4th slot I'm pretty worried about.

Unvote

Going over the game from scratch in a manner of speaking.

Az, you've had at least four different styles of post this game (Self-declared-Scum!Az, Effort!Az, Defeatist!Az, and Passthrough!Az). Effort!Az looks nice, but I don't like a large percentage of the posts from the other styles, and Effort!Az is not quite enough for me to push you into town on that alone.

I know that I'm town, and Axel is most likely town. Jenna and Pheonix are both probably town.


Az, Dawning, Kaba, LW, and Terry might be town, might be scum… They each have their respective ups and downs. This is not really a null category insomuch as they are significantly more likely to be sourced for POE than anyone higher than them.


Iso, Cythare, Tom, and Shinichi are left. I think at least 1-2 of these four is probably actually town, because catching the scumteam exactly would be too much of a fluke, but the rest are scum.

Yeah, okay, my POE has somewhat lined up with Az's, with a few differences.

In context, I think that might be a good thing for Az. There's still several scum!Az worlds that seem perfectly viable.

Out of the 4 left, I'm the least certain on Iso. There was also some kind of mess about not voting Shinichi toDay.


If it comes down to it, I'll lynch Kaba rather than No-Lynch. But I think the correct lynch is probably in Tom/Cythare.

Heck, I'll even do this:

Vote: tomsloger

Hi, Az.

Please explain how an Iso/tom/Jenna team makes sense, given that we've pretty much been at each other's throats all game until recently. Is that just scum theater? Because that's an awful long time to allow that to go on.

Quote from Azrael »

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

I feel like you are cleverly doing nothing in an attempt to draw votes to yourself instead of Kabazame. Every recent post has felt disconnected from what is going on, and when I see you post, you post nothing at all related to what I want to see from you. Every post is standoffish and neutral when I desperately want to see you to do something, anything meaningful now.

*cocks head*

Do you realize, that's how I think most players feel about the majority of your posting history? It's like your scum buddies have been arguing that you need to do a better job of avoiding just that, and you canned it, regurgitated as an attack back at me.

No. Deflection, whataboutism.

Quote from Iso »

Hi, Az.

Please explain how an Iso/tom/Jenna team makes sense, given that we've pretty much been at each other's throats all game until recently. Is that just scum theater? Because that's an awful long time to allow that to go on.

You're a little out of date. Jenna's out. Tom is bussing you. I don't know what your opinion on tom is, but I'm guessing "at his throat" doesn't quite fit the bill.

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

No. Deflection, whataboutism.

You just told the guy who has been posting PBPA content longer than War and Peace's appendices that he has "done nothing". Full stop.

You can't deflect something that was that far off target in the first place. That's like saying I deflected Haley's comet with a baseball bat. You're barely in the same solar system, Jenna, I just watched that comment shoot across the sky in a blaze of oblivious glory and pithily commented on it as it blew past.

Quote from Axelrod »

I don't even know what to think about the fact Az just spent X numbers of hours doing a big thing on Tom after complaining he had no time and/or that no one was doing proper analysis of Kaba, when Kaba is the one near lynch and it would have taken him approximately 1/10 the amount of time to do a read on Kaba instead.

Additionally, I will not change my mind on Tom being town. Azrael said that Tom being mafia means Iso and I are mafia, which reinforces my belief that Tom and Iso are town because I am town too. So despite having my mind made, I read through it and somehow Azrael came to the conclusion that time was mafia despite there being evidence in both directions. And I didn't understand the mafia reasonings at all.

Quote from Azrael »

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

No. Deflection, whataboutism.

You just told the guy who has been posting PBPA content longer than War and Peace's appendices that he has "done nothing". Full stop.

You can't deflect something that was that far off target in the first place. That's like saying I deflected Haley's comet with a baseball bat. You're barely in the same solar system, Jenna, I just watched that comment shoot across the sky in a blaze of oblivious glory and pithily commented on it as it blew past.

And yet, somehow, you watched the comet and rode it too.

Hopefully it's another seventy five years before something that off-target flies my way again.

Need some ice for these burns? Or if you're the comet in this scenario, would that just be another case of feeding on your own team?

PTAP, but if we are lynching in Iso/Tom, I would much rather lynch Iso.

Vote Iso

were lynching kaba dont let him distract you

Quote from LnGrrrR »

PTAP, but if we are lynching in Iso/Tom, I would much rather lynch Iso.

Vote Iso

I wouldn't mind that, but I don't know that you'll get enough votes there without a major PBPA on him as well, with only three URL days left.

Oh right. I didn't move my vote.
If axel doesn't want the time I'm done here
Idk if this is a hammer but
vote kaba

Az we can dance tomorrow

Quote from Azrael »

Quote from LnGrrrR »

PTAP, but if we are lynching in Iso/Tom, I would much rather lynch Iso.

Vote Iso

I wouldn't mind that, but I don't know that you'll get enough votes there without a major PBPA on him as well, with only three URL days left.

I will try to work one up, but no promises. (I test for promotion on Friday.)

Quote from tomsloger »

Oh right. I didn't move my vote.
If axel doesn't want the time I'm done here
Idk if this is a hammer but
vote kaba

Az we can dance tomorrow

LnGrrrR and I each unvoted. Kaba is at L-2.

Quote from tomsloger »

Oh right. I didn't move my vote.
If axel doesn't want the time I'm done here
Idk if this is a hammer but
vote kaba

Az we can dance tomorrow

ohh so now you care about where your vote is...

On that note, where is Cythare? I feel like he has to go after Kabazame.

@Azrael: In your read of Kabazame you seem to have failed to observe the things he didn't respond to. Here is my query that he ignored, and I'm sure there's others.

http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/784906-zero-escape-mafia-day-2-unlucky-seven?comment=4965

With the way kaba came back, managed to attracted the entire thread to himself then peace out, I don't know how Az can just call that par for the course, because it's distinctly different from how he's been lurking otherwise.

Actually, everything Az's said I am inclined to believe the opposite; I think kaba is probably scum, and when he didn't get hammered, Az actually put in the effort to move the lynch elsewhere.

This line is especially worrisome:
Az "Even if Axel doesn't die, I still don't think I'd want to lynch Kaba."
Really? What would your explanation of events be if that happened?

Vote Kaba
I am not in support of this last minute push to save a slot like kaba. If he's town, then I'll stand for a public shaming, but I don't think town comes in like that and then leaves again after garnering pressure the way he did.

Working theory is that kaba might even have pulled aggro away from Az intentionally.

Quote from tomsloger »

Oh right. I didn't move my vote.
If axel doesn't want the time I'm done here
Idk if this is a hammer but
vote kaba

Az we can dance tomorrow

Well that was such a townie move that I just can't stand it.

I would be up for a last second switch to Iso. I don't know that I would be up for anything else. The strongest points against Kaba are that he was (supposedly) role-blocked last night with no death and has been a horrible lurker. He also would have failed to use his ability twice when it would have been a rather helpful thing for him to have done so.

Quote from Phoenix-Fire »

Vote Kaba

$*#(%#*%&@#$*(#$&@#*(%&*(%&@#

KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!

Tom, Iso, Phoenix. Get them dead. Please, for the love.

And somebody unvote Kaba, stat, before they short-circuit our discussion.

**** it.

Vote Kabazame

@Az: Um...no? You literally just posted that you thought the three of us were scum. Alzheimer's already, old man? As for how I feel about tom, see below.

Quote from LnGrrrR »

PTAP, but if we are lynching in Iso/Tom, I would much rather lynch Iso.

We're not.

Quote from Phoenix-Fire »

With the way kaba came back, managed to attracted the entire thread to himself then peace out, I don't know how Az can just call that par for the course, because it's distinctly different from how he's been lurking otherwise.

Actually, everything Az's said I am inclined to believe the opposite; I think kaba is probably scum, and when he didn't get hammered, Az actually put in the effort to move the lynch elsewhere.

This line is especially worrisome:
Az "Even if Axel doesn't die, I still don't think I'd want to lynch Kaba."
Really? What would your explanation of events be if that happened?

Vote Kaba
I am not in support of this last minute push to save a slot like kaba. If he's town, then I'll stand for a public shaming, but I don't think town comes in like that and then leaves again after garnering pressure the way he did.

Working theory is that kaba might even have pulled aggro away from Az intentionally.

Amusingly, this has been a big problem I've had with Azrael since Day 1.

Quote from Axelrod »

I would be up for a last second switch to Iso.

I don't think you're even trying any more.

Quote from Azrael »

Quote from Phoenix-Fire »

Vote Kaba

$*#(%#*%&@#$*(#$&@#*(%&*(%&@#

KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!

Tom, Iso, Phoenix. Get them dead. Please, for the love.

I am super on-board with a Phoenix lynch eventually, and slightly less on-board with a tom lynch but still in favor. He's not a priority lynch for me, though.

Quote from osieorb18 »

**** it.

Vote Kabazame

WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY

Did the scum team target you with Mindslaver? I can't even.

Quote from Azrael »

[quote from="Phoenix-Fire »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/784906-zero-escape-mafia-day-3-eeriness?comment=6644"]Tom, Iso, Phoenix.

Town, Town, Town.

Quote from Azrael »

Tom, Iso, Phoenix.

Town, Town, Town.

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

Quote from Azrael »

Tom, Iso, Phoenix.

Town, Town, Town.

What changed your mind on Phoenix?

Quote from Iso »

@Az: Um...no? You literally just posted that you thought the three of us were scum. Alzheimer's already, old man? As for how I feel about tom, see below.

And as you just found further down in the post I'm quoting here, that changed shortly afterwards.

Quote from Iso »

What changed your mind on Phoenix?

Azrael said he's scum, therefore Phoenix must be town.

She's described her thought process as such, earlier on the page.

THANKS, Jenna, I appreciate you answering my question.

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

On that note, where is Cythare? I feel like he has to go after Kabazame.

@Azrael: In your read of Kabazame you seem to have failed to observe the things he didn't respond to. Here is my query that he ignored, and I'm sure there's others.

http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/784906-zero-escape-mafia-day-2-unlucky-seven?comment=4965

As stated before, I'm fairly ok with this. Starting so far behind has been a massive issue with this game and has definitely not helped with my morale. I'm still wary of Az but this wagon is solid given Kaba's response as has been noted by several people already. It could have waited until we'd seen what happens with Axelrod, but otherwise I have no issues with it, and I'm not sure that a speedwagon elsewhere would have been a better call for EOD.

Quote from Iso »

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

Quote from Azrael »

Tom, Iso, Phoenix.

Town, Town, Town.

What changed your mind on Phoenix?

His claim.

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

Quote from Iso »

Quote from Jenna Tolaria »

Quote from Azrael »

Tom, Iso, Phoenix.

Town, Town, Town.

What changed your mind on Phoenix?

His claim.

It doesn't strike you as "entirely too convenient to be real"?

F5F5F5

F5F5F5

oh hi!

Vote Azrael

Can we finally do this now? Y'know, since he viciously tried to overturn the Kaba lynch in the 11th hour and then, like every possibly lynch candidate we've had from the start of the game, tried to tie them to me? Since scumAz is deathly afraid of townIso and all that?

Thanks!