Given that I suspect LnGrrrR is aware of the issues with his model, I'm inclined to believe that suggesting it is either naive hoping that the scumteam is bad this game or something sinister.
Given that I suspect LnGrrrR is aware of the issues with his model, I'm inclined to believe that suggesting it is either naive hoping that the scumteam is bad this game or something sinister.
Since I'm not entirely convinced right now that anything else sinister would be going on with him, I'm leaning naiveté, but am willing to consider alternatives. He could also be in denial or unaware of some of the issues.
This isn't a zero sum game. And it isn't over after the first "dilemma".
Its just bad to use that game theory to analyze it.
Its better to view this as a good. Which it is. This good has be dynamic worth to the individual for a variety of reasons.
Scum might want to curry favor. How do you even measure that? Or a town might want to both gain just one point because the break point of their skills is extremely low. Each player is going to have a different value in BP because of their starting BP and the cost of their skills.
Scum might want to curry favor. How do you even measure that? Or a town might want to both gain just one point because the break point of their skills is extremely low. Each player is going to have a different value in BP because of their starting BP and the cost of their skills.
You can still add or rule out options. Lack of perfect information throughout means those options are more varied, but you can roughly narrow down your options probabilistically within a margin of WIFOM, and the rest is a normal game of Mafia.
Lol at people saying I'm inactive. I posted before work today. I haven't posted in about 8-10 hours.
DV- The first thing that jumped out at me in post 65, where he lumps three people together and says there's one scum between them. His opinion seems to be that one of the first three votes on Last Whisper is scum, but fails to actually give a read on Last Whisper in the process. He does it again with Terry/Az in 96.
Shinichi-Lllllllllngr says he townslipped... I'm not sure he did. I don't think Ln clarified what he meant there.
Anyway, I feel like pressure here might tell us things. Unvote, Vote Shinichi.
BluesEscape-Posted a bit but hasn't left an impression on me.
tomsloger-tom's gonna tom his way through this game, I just know it. Initial thought is that we've been kinda mindmelding in some things. I like the vote on DV in 121, for instance. In general, tom's posting has been quite natural.
Jenna Tolaria-No posts
lastwhisper- This has been partially explained. He first caught my attention by declaring that he would not die soon (which is a weird thought for a townie to have early D1). He also has quite a few hyperdefensive posts that feel more like he's trying to get himself off the hook and less like he's trying to disprove the arguments that are being made against him (with 76 being a good example)... Except... the more I read the back and forth between Terry and Whisper, I begin to feel like Whisper isn't actually hyperdefensive, but is actually a frustrated townie. Maybe he's just newer and falls into the trap of trying to defend themselves instead of scumhunting?
Megiddo-No posts
dawningbluesky- Hmmmmmmm. His vote on tom in 108 feels very go-against-the-grainy, and as such is giving me town feels. However, his constant pushes to tom (like the throwaway at the end of 123) kinda feels powerwolfy. Not sure powerwolfing is something you can really catch someone doing though (never seen it done, never tried myself) so we'll see I suppose.
Hm. I'm getting the feeling he knows more about whisper's alignment than he should. At the very least, the vigor with which dbs defends whisper makes them likely unaligned.
Iso-Hasn't posted much, but hasn't done anything unexpected either.
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry- Reads as having honest opinions. I've read a lot of his stuff as feeling very sincere, and town. His arguement with whisper is maybe town/town?
Grapefruit21- Initial thoughts on Grape are his vote on Llllllllngr to break RVS and subsequent reason for said vote appear to be from a townie perspective. It was very reactive. His catchup is similarly good.
Azrael- I'm thinking that trying to build worlds with Az in them this early (or really at all but specifically with Az to my point) is an exercise in futility. Az is much to clever to be obviously having scummy interactions (or lack thereof) with scumbuddies.
LnGrrrR-I find the suicide thoughts he was having... odd? And all he's really doing is talking mechanics. Like, he's spent an inordinant amount of time talking about them, and hasn't done a whole lot else.
osieorb18- I feel like a lot of Osie's content has been... meaningless. Like he's jsut making comments and jokes and actually doing very little to find scum. He asks a few questions but nothing really telling. Caveat: I seem to ALWAYS scumread Osie. However however... I HATE his progression on me.
Phoenix-Fire-I feel like most of his content is pressing Terry for basically one answer, and I don't recall much else he's done.
Axelrod- Initial thoughts on Axel was that his entrance into the game was kind of... stiff? Like, his manner of speech just kind of generally feels too proper. However, I also vaguely recall that actually being how he talks. As such, I'm tabling that as 'not important'. Nothing else has caught my eye.
Town
Grapefruit
Terry
Probs Town
Tom
Might Be Town
Last Whisper
Postless
Meg
Jenna
Null
Iso
BluesEclipse
Axelrod
PheonixFire
Azreal
Might Be Scum
Shin
Osie
DawningBlueSky
Probs Scum
DV
LnGrrR
I'd betray the scum for sure... Null I would probably ISO them and decide on the fly.
I'm sure I missed questions btw. If you could remind me that you asked me something, that would be great. It's 3:14 in the morning, and I'm tired. I'll look for them again in the morning.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Because if i don't push that mindset, then scum can hide in betrayals and set that up as a "normal" thing to do. I want to prevent that, hence bringing it up early. Also, I have reasons for believing that determining who allied or betrayed may not be super obvious.
Which is exactly why this is rolefishing. You're saying if you intend to betray you need to give reasoning or I will push you. Setting yourself up to make a play beneficial to scum while suggesting that people need to put their cards on the table.
@Osie I haven't looked at post count but I'm disappointed at the psuedoactive label
@DV I agree that tom having a positive read on DawningBlue is not a good look at this stage. I don't see how anyone could have a positive read on them right now.
This isn't a zero sum game. And it isn't over after the first "dilemma".
Its just bad to use that game theory to analyze it.
Its better to view this as a good. Which it is. This good has be dynamic worth to the individual for a variety of reasons.
Scum might want to curry favor. How do you even measure that? Or a town might want to both gain just one point because the break point of their skills is extremely low. Each player is going to have a different value in BP because of their starting BP and the cost of their skills.
This all pretty much agree with. You have so many variables that claiming you'll push anyone just for betraying is either as Osie said incredibly naive or setting up mechanical reasons to push ahead of time as scum. And that feels more likely to me.
Killjoys big catch up post is interesting. It echo's a few things I'm seeing (DBS and LnGrrrR) but differs in a few ways I just don't see at all.
@Killjoy I would like to hear more from you on Shin and LW, because I'm not seeing your conclusions there.
It's to early to assume anyone would cuss, but your logic makes no sense town have no need to buss they know they're town. Only mafia need to bus to gain town cred. If you bus a lot it's logical to think when you do bus your scum lol.
Again I would like to ask why you think people may or may not have started with less than 3 bp? Seems more like a way to force people not to hit betray.
I don't think bp will come into effect until the first ab game.
Also refusal to read a post seems more scummy than townlike, because if he is town your potentially missing some good info code versa if he's scum you will be potentially slips.
Orb, actually, mafia being able to set up betrayals is the EXACT reason why I want to hold to allying by default. If betrayal is scummy by default, then scum will have a much harder time setting up betrayals as they can't hide behind the "everyone does it" excuse. Also, while mathematically betraying is the "optional" choice for an INDIVIDUAL, it is NOT optional for the whole. (Both choosing betrayal is negative to both parties.)
GF, that's like saying, "By saying you will lynch all liars, you are cutting off options to town!" Well yeah. Because town are more likely to non optimally vote ally/betray than scum is. But whatever, you feel free to think betrayal is peachy keen and I won't.
I don't like KJ, mainly because his reads and thought progression are near opposite to mine. Grapefruit too, but I am neutral on GF right now as I think it is a difference of opinion on theory more than anything.
Orb, actually, mafia being able to set up betrayals is the EXACT reason why I want to hold to allying by default. If betrayal is scummy by default, then scum will have a much harder time setting up betrayals as they can't hide behind the "everyone does it" excuse. Also, while mathematically betraying is the "optional" choice for an INDIVIDUAL, it is NOT optional for the whole. (Both choosing betrayal is negative to both parties.)
GF, that's like saying, "By saying you will lynch all liars, you are cutting off options to town!" Well yeah. Because town are more likely to non optimally vote ally/betray than scum is. But whatever, you feel free to think betrayal is peachy keen and I won't.
I don't like KJ, mainly because his reads and thought progression are near opposite to mine. Grapefruit too, but I am neutral on GF right now as I think it is a difference of opinion on theory more than anything.
So you think its wrong to look after ur self? Ya mafia is a game of collective action, but individuality is what makes you who you are, and it dictates how you solve the game. So noted...
Why are there even 5 votes one? Tbh I know why most of the initial votes are there, but why all these new votes... I had no idea that was at L-4... Is it because I was confident that I wouldnt be lynched? Wheres the scum tells from that? The majority is 9, lets says there are 3/4 mafia, either way neither would be able save me from being lynched if the possbility neared closer. Secondly, mafia would most likely pressure other people to spread the votes out, not go into blindly defending their partner, that would just make them look scummy a long side their partner. Thirdly, whats up with all these pre flip association?? The fact that my train is going uncontested right now, must mean someone likes this development... *wink mafia... My statement that, "I am confident that I wont be lynched," just stems from a little bit of self meta, and thats pretty much all their is to it.
As of right now we dont know what kinds of abilities players have, and saying that others should out their bp when they have only 1 BP is like semi-rolefishing. Like you put them into a bad position at least thats how I see it. and in the end if someone decides to out the amount of BP they have left, then thats basically them "looking after their self", which is contradictory to what Grrrr said which states that we should work together. The BP system is as much a hinderance as it is a tool to find mafia, so putting everyone into an only "ally" bubble.
Tom and Joe were also both at the center of attention, like Toms sudden vote change off of me, and Joes vote on me. I still dont have enough information to say they are town, even the Joe saying, "I have many years of experience", is a little self centered, and that "Thats why I am right," is putting himself in a cloud that is shrouding him from making accurate decisions. My opionion on that matter is that, two things, once you create a scum tunnel on someone, you tend to always see scummy things form them, regardless of what they do, and thats bad. Secondly, Joe was the first person to bring up bussing, I mean I know I am town, and his statement felt weird, which is why I believe he brought it up to distance himself and Tom, so the possbility of them both being scum is their, but I dont think they are W/V, so either W/W or V/V.
There was something someone said that peaked my interest, hopefully I can find/remember it. Good news, my sinuses are clearing up and I dont have a massive headache anymore, so yah. Lol
Much of the rest was my choices for who to betray and who to ally with post numbers for reference.
Let me reconstruct. And not cry.
likely story scum... in all seriousness when im on my school network, I copy my post before I post it, just in case I lose connection, because if I dont, and my connection drops, then i lose all my work...
DV: Betray!!!!
Shinichi: I stopped reading at her first post. So I don't know yet.
BluesEscape: Ally
tomsloger: Ally
Jenna Tolaria: Ally
lastwhisper: Ally
Megiddo: Unknown agency
dawningbluesky: Ally
Iso: Ally with the expectation that he Ally back.
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry: Betray
Grapefruit21: Ally, I think...
Azrael: Ally!!!
Killjoy: Ally, I think...
LnGrrrR: Ally
osieorb18: Betray, I think...
Phoenix-Fire: Ally
Axelrod: Betray
Azrael saw the two sections of posts that made me distrust D_V; dawningbluesky and LastWhisper appear to be as new and innocent as I; Tom had the same thought as me with Ally town and Betray mafia, I have not seen Megiddo, and Shinichi should come soon. Iso is a strong trust, as he understands how unlikely it is to ever be able to use our abilities, though my trust extends only if he chooses Ally as well. TheRealStinkyJoeTerry said a thing that didn't follow previous sentiments and Azrael pointed it out as well.
Killjoy and Grapefruit seem okay so far, Odie does not. Nothing solid here.
LnGrrrR and Phoenix said minor things that I agree with. Axelrod did not, and has not.
The strength axis of this analysis appears to be the vertical.
ITT everyone needs to stop revealing stuff about their roles. We should not have someone claimed already without any risk of them being lynched.
Talking about whether or not you plan to ally/betray, fine, can be useful.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lngrrr: I'm curious to hear what the towntell for Shinichi is.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
::::::
I have a vague town ping from DV because of his admitting difficulty with first posts as scum, yet his first post was pretty funny and off the cuff.
ITT everyone needs to stop revealing stuff about their roles. We should not have someone claimed already without any risk of them being lynched.
Talking about whether or not you plan to ally/betray, fine, can be useful.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lngrrr: I'm curious to hear what the towntell for Shinichi is.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
::::::
I have a vague town ping from DV because of his admitting difficulty with first posts as scum, yet his first post was pretty funny and off the cuff.
why does this sound like it's coming from scum concerned about town, and not the other way around... And I think the only thing people stated so far was BP amounts, and only like 3 out of the 17 people...
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
You downplay two strategies; please provide your suggested strategy along with a list of who you will Ally and Betray.
I think I like the idea of either making the list of people who can betray me, or perhaps just asking for justification when it happens? I feel like coming up with decent justification is harder to do than just following some arbitrary list.
I'm curious about bluesky - why do you think the LW wagon is bunk? Why do you think tom has been scummier than LW?
I've played 3 games with LW so far, and he's always scummy. I voted him in the 1st game with him cuz of his behavior, but he turned out to be town. I've yet to see his scumgame, but I'm sure he would have buds quell the heat by now since attracting this much attention early on won't benefit on the long run. overall, this much attention on a generally scummy player just doesn't feel right.
It's this kind of stuff with DBS. Nothing he says in this post follows for me. It's like random words thrown together. Which tends to make me think "scum just trying to come up with something to say" as opposed to "town who makes no sense."
@DV: As far as your Betraying people goes, I know what you are doing and I think it's fine, but you need to be careful who you betray. People can ABSOLUTELY die from being betrayed Night 1. If your BP reaches 0 you die. If someone were to start the game with 1 BP, they could die if they Ally and their partner betrays. I play that way as scum because that's the way I play as town.
I have not been ignoring my wagon. Where did you come up with that? I addressed it when it first started happening. I'm a bit concerned that so many people just jumped on it with out actually thinking about it. I'm not fully surprised that you were in that group, but I have reasons to believe you are town.
I mean, yeah if you started with 2 or less BP, sure. But I doubt anyone did.
In the games, everyone started with three BP specifically to avoid dying to one betrayal. Did anyone start with less than three BP? I feel like if we're claming at 1, we should probably claim at 2 as well. There's no way to lose just one BP, so two is as deadly as one.
What do you mean there's no way to lose just one BP? And did you see the part where AZ claimed he might insta-die if anyone betrayed him? That certainly implies he has less than three (though it could be something else).
Please don't let this be a dueling meme game. I'll lose my mind.
I will:
Vote: Tomsloger
for being essentially unreadable. One less thing to worry about, etc. etc.
Looking forward to a good game.
This isn't an rvs vote right, because if so this vote is quite over justified to be random. Also this vote screams scum, its one thing to vote to pressure someone but seems like you just want to get rid of said person for being unreadable plus hard to deal with in the late game.
Have you posted a reason anywhere? Or is this just some random rvs bs?
Considering Iso is voting me for the exact post you just said "screamed scum," why are you asking him for his reasons and wondering if the vote was random rvs bs? I find that odd.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
ITT everyone needs to stop revealing stuff about their roles. We should not have someone claimed already without any risk of them being lynched.
Talking about whether or not you plan to ally/betray, fine, can be useful.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lngrrr: I'm curious to hear what the towntell for Shinichi is.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
::::::
I have a vague town ping from DV because of his admitting difficulty with first posts as scum, yet his first post was pretty funny and off the cuff.
why does this sound like it's coming from scum concerned about town, and not the other way around... And I think the only thing people stated so far was BP amounts, and only like 3 out of the 17 people...
I've seen one person claim specifics about their role and several people implying the strength of their role which is at best naive. Go ahead and shade me for being cautious, but the actual scum are just taking it all in, and I'm not particularly interested in non critical information being made public on day 1.
@Phoenix Wisp missing those claims is par for the course for him. He's not a meticulous note taker. And I agree that people need to stop claiming things. LnGrrrRs fishing expedition worked out really well apart from me catching him...
@Axelrod unfortunately that sort of contradiction is par for the course for either alignment from Shin. Check out Silence mafia if you want an example of it from town!shin. But he plays devils advocate incessantly and doesn't stand by many reads.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
You downplay two strategies; please provide your suggested strategy along with a list of who you will Ally and Betray.
I don't think a "one size fits all" strategy is going to work. Every pairing needs to be done on a case by case basis. I think everyone creating a reads list and going from there will be helpful. But two people town reading each other might be better suited to agree on an AB pairing to the greater benefit of the other.
Regardless of who I get paired with, I will most likely ally. I'll have a list of people I'd approve to betray me, and if someone outside of that list did then we'll have words.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
You downplay two strategies; please provide your suggested strategy along with a list of who you will Ally and Betray.
I don't think a "one size fits all" strategy is going to work. Every pairing needs to be done on a case by case basis. I think everyone creating a reads list and going from there will be helpful. But two people town reading each other might be better suited to agree on an AB pairing to the greater benefit of the other.
Regardless of who I get paired with, I will most likely ally. I'll have a list of people I'd approve to betray me, and if someone outside of that list did then we'll have words.
This is a good way to end our discussion on mechanics. PF is right, it should be done on a case by case basis and if you betray someone, you should be able to justify it or face the repercussions. That being said, our #1 priority should still be lynching scum. Mechanics discussion doesn't really help us achieve that.
Orb, why do you like LW? Given that info, why did you vote BlueSky?
It's more that I don't have enough of an opinion on LW at the moment to vote them. As for my vote, I don't care for Duskingblacksea's push on Tom; it feels off.
It was also somewhat of a placeholder/RVS until I had constructed a readlist.
osieorb18- I feel like a lot of Osie's content has been... meaningless. Like he's jsut making comments and jokes and actually doing very little to find scum. He asks a few questions but nothing really telling. Caveat: I seem to ALWAYS scumread Osie. However however... I HATE his progression on me.
ok so I'm here and.. //backreads at the speed of light. any skipped posts are unintentional.
osie's read on me #348 looks good. (I use mobile slang alot. sorry~) p much how everyone tends to read me. from track record, accusations tend to go in my direction whenever such a post about me comes up...and they're usually from scum. Killjoy and DV, in particular, are banking on it. I want some questions thrown my way from those two, if they think they're on to smthing.
to give some incentive to the dogfight... Vote: D_V
never liked how u claimed some pseudo backup or whateverrrr that needs so much BP. and I'm not sure if abilities even need that much BP in the first place. it's dangerous to suggest town to ally with scum who might betray them, and I have valid reason to not want to ally with u as u are my scumread. mechanics, aka BP needs, won't tempt me to change my mind on who I ally or betray.
ITT everyone needs to stop revealing stuff about their roles. We should not have someone claimed already without any risk of them being lynched.
Talking about whether or not you plan to ally/betray, fine, can be useful.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lngrrr: I'm curious to hear what the towntell for Shinichi is.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
::::::
I have a vague town ping from DV because of his admitting difficulty with first posts as scum, yet his first post was pretty funny and off the cuff.
why does this sound like it's coming from scum concerned about town, and not the other way around... And I think the only thing people stated so far was BP amounts, and only like 3 out of the 17 people...
I've seen one person claim specifics about their role and several people implying the strength of their role which is at best naive. Go ahead and shade me for being cautious, but the actual scum are just taking it all in, and I'm not particularly interested in non critical information being made public on day 1.
where did people claim specifics about their role? And I'd considered starting with 1 BP to be very critical... Just gunna slide this here vote Phoenix and I wasnt shading, that tone didn't sound generally real, which is why I commented on it...
Did I say that KJ wasn't scummy? Because if so, I was totally wrong about that. Yikes.
Because this
Quote from KillScum »
Shinichi-Lllllllllngr says he townslipped... I'm not sure he did. I don't think Ln clarified what he meant there.
Anyway, I feel like pressure here might tell us things. Unvote, Vote Shinichi.
ok so I'm here and.. //backreads at the speed of light. any skipped posts are unintentional.
osie's read on me #348 looks good. (I use mobile slang alot. sorry~) p much how everyone tends to read me. from track record, accusations tend to go in my direction whenever such a post about me comes up...and they're usually from scum. Killjoy and DV, in particular, are banking on it. I want some questions thrown my way from those two, if they think they're on to smthing.
to give some incentive to the dogfight... Vote: D_V
never liked how u claimed some pseudo backup or whateverrrr that needs so much BP. and I'm not sure if abilities even need that much BP in the first place. it's dangerous to suggest town to ally with scum who might betray them, and I have valid reason to not want to ally with u as u are my scumread. mechanics, aka BP needs, won't tempt me to change my mind on who I ally or betray.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
You downplay two strategies; please provide your suggested strategy along with a list of who you will Ally and Betray.
I don't think a "one size fits all" strategy is going to work. Every pairing needs to be done on a case by case basis. I think everyone creating a reads list and going from there will be helpful. But two people town reading each other might be better suited to agree on an AB pairing to the greater benefit of the other.
Regardless of who I get paired with, I will most likely ally. I'll have a list of people I'd approve to betray me, and if someone outside of that list did then we'll have words.
Is reality altered? I say "give me an apple," and you say, "I think instead I should give you an apple." And then you don't give me an apple.
DV: Betray!!!!
Shinichi: I stopped reading at her first post. So I don't know yet.
BluesEscape: Ally
tomsloger: Ally
Jenna Tolaria: Ally
lastwhisper: Ally
Megiddo: Unknown agency
dawningbluesky: Ally
Iso: Ally with the expectation that he Ally back.
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry: Betray
Grapefruit21: Ally, I think...
Azrael: Ally!!!
Killjoy: Ally, I think...
LnGrrrR: Ally
osieorb18: Betray, I think...
Phoenix-Fire: Ally
Axelrod: Betray
Azrael saw the two sections of posts that made me distrust D_V; dawningbluesky and LastWhisper appear to be as new and innocent as I; Tom had the same thought as me with Ally town and Betray mafia, I have not seen Megiddo, and Shinichi should come soon. Iso is a strong trust, as he understands how unlikely it is to ever be able to use our abilities, though my trust extends only if he chooses Ally as well. TheRealStinkyJoeTerry said a thing that didn't follow previous sentiments and Azrael pointed it out as well.
Killjoy and Grapefruit seem okay so far, Odie does not. Nothing solid here.
LnGrrrR and Phoenix said minor things that I agree with. Axelrod did not, and has not.
The strength axis of this analysis appears to be the vertical.
Welcome to the Fray. Well I disagree with you on DV, you explained it well enough. Can you expand on a couple reads you have here, namely:
Me - I don't get what you mean by saying a thing that didn't follow previous sentiments? If you don't get something I say, ask me.
Last Whisper - Because they appear new and innocent you choose to trust them. I feel like someone being new makes them easier to read.
DBS - See above
Axelrod - What don't you agree with?
DV - What did Azrael say about DV that made you distrust him?
His scum partner KJ said that you were doing nothing though.
So you gotta be doing nothing.
KJ's whole post was a laughable excuse that doesn't even mirror what has happened in the game at all. But don't worry. Its got the Az stamp of approval. TM TM.
I think I like the idea of either making the list of people who can betray me, or perhaps just asking for justification when it happens? I feel like coming up with decent justification is harder to do than just following some arbitrary list.
I'm curious about bluesky - why do you think the LW wagon is bunk? Why do you think tom has been scummier than LW?
I've played 3 games with LW so far, and he's always scummy. I voted him in the 1st game with him cuz of his behavior, but he turned out to be town. I've yet to see his scumgame, but I'm sure he would have buds quell the heat by now since attracting this much attention early on won't benefit on the long run. overall, this much attention on a generally scummy player just doesn't feel right.
It's this kind of stuff with DBS. Nothing he says in this post follows for me. It's like random words thrown together. Which tends to make me think "scum just trying to come up with something to say" as opposed to "town who makes no sense."
yeah sure, I garner hate in any game. I'm random. deal with it. question if u feel confused to the point of voting me, k?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
You downplay two strategies; please provide your suggested strategy along with a list of who you will Ally and Betray.
I don't think a "one size fits all" strategy is going to work. Every pairing needs to be done on a case by case basis. I think everyone creating a reads list and going from there will be helpful. But two people town reading each other might be better suited to agree on an AB pairing to the greater benefit of the other.
Regardless of who I get paired with, I will most likely ally. I'll have a list of people I'd approve to betray me, and if someone outside of that list did then we'll have words.
Is reality altered? I say "give me an apple," and you say, "I think instead I should give you an apple." And then you don't give me an apple.
As a reiteration, give me an apple.
I like this post by Jenna. Jenna is comfortably in my townleans.
Since I'm not entirely convinced right now that anything else sinister would be going on with him, I'm leaning naiveté, but am willing to consider alternatives. He could also be in denial or unaware of some of the issues.
This isn't a zero sum game. And it isn't over after the first "dilemma".
Its just bad to use that game theory to analyze it.
Its better to view this as a good. Which it is. This good has be dynamic worth to the individual for a variety of reasons.
Scum might want to curry favor. How do you even measure that? Or a town might want to both gain just one point because the break point of their skills is extremely low. Each player is going to have a different value in BP because of their starting BP and the cost of their skills.
The proper use in game theory would be an extension of prisoner's dilemma.
When it comes down to just the AB subgame, it is.
See here
Not exactly.
You can still add or rule out options. Lack of perfect information throughout means those options are more varied, but you can roughly narrow down your options probabilistically within a margin of WIFOM, and the rest is a normal game of Mafia.
DV- The first thing that jumped out at me in post 65, where he lumps three people together and says there's one scum between them. His opinion seems to be that one of the first three votes on Last Whisper is scum, but fails to actually give a read on Last Whisper in the process. He does it again with Terry/Az in 96.
Shinichi-Lllllllllngr says he townslipped... I'm not sure he did. I don't think Ln clarified what he meant there.
Anyway, I feel like pressure here might tell us things. Unvote, Vote Shinichi.
BluesEscape-Posted a bit but hasn't left an impression on me.
tomsloger-tom's gonna tom his way through this game, I just know it. Initial thought is that we've been kinda mindmelding in some things. I like the vote on DV in 121, for instance. In general, tom's posting has been quite natural.
Jenna Tolaria-No posts
lastwhisper- This has been partially explained. He first caught my attention by declaring that he would not die soon (which is a weird thought for a townie to have early D1). He also has quite a few hyperdefensive posts that feel more like he's trying to get himself off the hook and less like he's trying to disprove the arguments that are being made against him (with 76 being a good example)... Except... the more I read the back and forth between Terry and Whisper, I begin to feel like Whisper isn't actually hyperdefensive, but is actually a frustrated townie. Maybe he's just newer and falls into the trap of trying to defend themselves instead of scumhunting?
Megiddo-No posts
dawningbluesky- Hmmmmmmm. His vote on tom in 108 feels very go-against-the-grainy, and as such is giving me town feels. However, his constant pushes to tom (like the throwaway at the end of 123) kinda feels powerwolfy. Not sure powerwolfing is something you can really catch someone doing though (never seen it done, never tried myself) so we'll see I suppose.
Hm. I'm getting the feeling he knows more about whisper's alignment than he should. At the very least, the vigor with which dbs defends whisper makes them likely unaligned.
Iso-Hasn't posted much, but hasn't done anything unexpected either.
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry- Reads as having honest opinions. I've read a lot of his stuff as feeling very sincere, and town. His arguement with whisper is maybe town/town?
Grapefruit21- Initial thoughts on Grape are his vote on Llllllllngr to break RVS and subsequent reason for said vote appear to be from a townie perspective. It was very reactive. His catchup is similarly good.
Azrael- I'm thinking that trying to build worlds with Az in them this early (or really at all but specifically with Az to my point) is an exercise in futility. Az is much to clever to be obviously having scummy interactions (or lack thereof) with scumbuddies.
LnGrrrR-I find the suicide thoughts he was having... odd? And all he's really doing is talking mechanics. Like, he's spent an inordinant amount of time talking about them, and hasn't done a whole lot else.
osieorb18- I feel like a lot of Osie's content has been... meaningless. Like he's jsut making comments and jokes and actually doing very little to find scum. He asks a few questions but nothing really telling. Caveat: I seem to ALWAYS scumread Osie. However however... I HATE his progression on me.
Phoenix-Fire-I feel like most of his content is pressing Terry for basically one answer, and I don't recall much else he's done.
Axelrod- Initial thoughts on Axel was that his entrance into the game was kind of... stiff? Like, his manner of speech just kind of generally feels too proper. However, I also vaguely recall that actually being how he talks. As such, I'm tabling that as 'not important'. Nothing else has caught my eye.
Town
Grapefruit
Terry
Probs Town
Tom
Might Be Town
Last Whisper
Postless
Meg
Jenna
Null
Iso
BluesEclipse
Axelrod
PheonixFire
Azreal
Might Be Scum
Shin
Osie
DawningBlueSky
Probs Scum
DV
LnGrrR
I'd betray the scum for sure... Null I would probably ISO them and decide on the fly.
I'm sure I missed questions btw. If you could remind me that you asked me something, that would be great. It's 3:14 in the morning, and I'm tired. I'll look for them again in the morning.
Which is exactly why this is rolefishing. You're saying if you intend to betray you need to give reasoning or I will push you. Setting yourself up to make a play beneficial to scum while suggesting that people need to put their cards on the table.
@Osie I haven't looked at post count but I'm disappointed at the psuedoactive label
@DV I agree that tom having a positive read on DawningBlue is not a good look at this stage. I don't see how anyone could have a positive read on them right now.
This all pretty much agree with. You have so many variables that claiming you'll push anyone just for betraying is either as Osie said incredibly naive or setting up mechanical reasons to push ahead of time as scum. And that feels more likely to me.
Killjoys big catch up post is interesting. It echo's a few things I'm seeing (DBS and LnGrrrR) but differs in a few ways I just don't see at all.
@Killjoy I would like to hear more from you on Shin and LW, because I'm not seeing your conclusions there.
@terry my last post was in reference to #163
Again I would like to ask why you think people may or may not have started with less than 3 bp? Seems more like a way to force people not to hit betray.
I don't think bp will come into effect until the first ab game.
Also refusal to read a post seems more scummy than townlike, because if he is town your potentially missing some good info code versa if he's scum you will be potentially slips.
GF, that's like saying, "By saying you will lynch all liars, you are cutting off options to town!" Well yeah. Because town are more likely to non optimally vote ally/betray than scum is. But whatever, you feel free to think betrayal is peachy keen and I won't.
I don't like KJ, mainly because his reads and thought progression are near opposite to mine. Grapefruit too, but I am neutral on GF right now as I think it is a difference of opinion on theory more than anything.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
So you think its wrong to look after ur self? Ya mafia is a game of collective action, but individuality is what makes you who you are, and it dictates how you solve the game. So noted...
Why are there even 5 votes one? Tbh I know why most of the initial votes are there, but why all these new votes... I had no idea that was at L-4... Is it because I was confident that I wouldnt be lynched? Wheres the scum tells from that? The majority is 9, lets says there are 3/4 mafia, either way neither would be able save me from being lynched if the possbility neared closer. Secondly, mafia would most likely pressure other people to spread the votes out, not go into blindly defending their partner, that would just make them look scummy a long side their partner. Thirdly, whats up with all these pre flip association?? The fact that my train is going uncontested right now, must mean someone likes this development... *wink mafia... My statement that, "I am confident that I wont be lynched," just stems from a little bit of self meta, and thats pretty much all their is to it.
As of right now we dont know what kinds of abilities players have, and saying that others should out their bp when they have only 1 BP is like semi-rolefishing. Like you put them into a bad position at least thats how I see it. and in the end if someone decides to out the amount of BP they have left, then thats basically them "looking after their self", which is contradictory to what Grrrr said which states that we should work together. The BP system is as much a hinderance as it is a tool to find mafia, so putting everyone into an only "ally" bubble.
Tom and Joe were also both at the center of attention, like Toms sudden vote change off of me, and Joes vote on me. I still dont have enough information to say they are town, even the Joe saying, "I have many years of experience", is a little self centered, and that "Thats why I am right," is putting himself in a cloud that is shrouding him from making accurate decisions. My opionion on that matter is that, two things, once you create a scum tunnel on someone, you tend to always see scummy things form them, regardless of what they do, and thats bad. Secondly, Joe was the first person to bring up bussing, I mean I know I am town, and his statement felt weird, which is why I believe he brought it up to distance himself and Tom, so the possbility of them both being scum is their, but I dont think they are W/V, so either W/W or V/V.
There was something someone said that peaked my interest, hopefully I can find/remember it. Good news, my sinuses are clearing up and I dont have a massive headache anymore, so yah. Lol
I lost my work of pages 1-4.
The most important item was:
Vote: D_V
Much of the rest was my choices for who to betray and who to ally with post numbers for reference.
Let me reconstruct. And not cry.
Shinichi: I stopped reading at her first post. So I don't know yet.
BluesEscape: Ally
tomsloger: Ally
Jenna Tolaria: Ally
lastwhisper: Ally
Megiddo: Unknown agency
dawningbluesky: Ally
Iso: Ally with the expectation that he Ally back.
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry: Betray
Grapefruit21: Ally, I think...
Azrael: Ally!!!
Killjoy: Ally, I think...
LnGrrrR: Ally
osieorb18: Betray, I think...
Phoenix-Fire: Ally
Axelrod: Betray
Azrael saw the two sections of posts that made me distrust D_V; dawningbluesky and LastWhisper appear to be as new and innocent as I; Tom had the same thought as me with Ally town and Betray mafia, I have not seen Megiddo, and Shinichi should come soon. Iso is a strong trust, as he understands how unlikely it is to ever be able to use our abilities, though my trust extends only if he chooses Ally as well. TheRealStinkyJoeTerry said a thing that didn't follow previous sentiments and Azrael pointed it out as well.
Killjoy and Grapefruit seem okay so far, Odie does not. Nothing solid here.
LnGrrrR and Phoenix said minor things that I agree with. Axelrod did not, and has not.
The strength axis of this analysis appears to be the vertical.
Talking about whether or not you plan to ally/betray, fine, can be useful.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lngrrr: I'm curious to hear what the towntell for Shinichi is.
I also think the rigidity that you're pushing "ally=townie, betray=scummy" is based on the assumption that everyone has the same net gain from using BP, which I just don't think holds true. Everyone should be prepared to justify why they pick what they do, but saying "town have to ally" could lead to situations where someone gets screwed because they allied with a scum lean who betrayed them.
::::::
I have a vague town ping from DV because of his admitting difficulty with first posts as scum, yet his first post was pretty funny and off the cuff.
You downplay two strategies; please provide your suggested strategy along with a list of who you will Ally and Betray.
I am not a fan of DBS. (like, in game, I'm sure you're a lovely person irl).
I am a fan of Phoenix-Fire.
What do you maybe see, Killjoy?
Seriously, tell me, what do you think is/was "maybe" scummy about that post.
It's this kind of stuff with DBS. Nothing he says in this post follows for me. It's like random words thrown together. Which tends to make me think "scum just trying to come up with something to say" as opposed to "town who makes no sense."
What do you mean there's no way to lose just one BP? And did you see the part where AZ claimed he might insta-die if anyone betrayed him? That certainly implies he has less than three (though it could be something else).
So, you say this. "I think this post is scummy."
But then you immediately say this:
Considering Iso is voting me for the exact post you just said "screamed scum," why are you asking him for his reasons and wondering if the vote was random rvs bs? I find that odd.
@Axelrod unfortunately that sort of contradiction is par for the course for either alignment from Shin. Check out Silence mafia if you want an example of it from town!shin. But he plays devils advocate incessantly and doesn't stand by many reads.
Regardless of who I get paired with, I will most likely ally. I'll have a list of people I'd approve to betray me, and if someone outside of that list did then we'll have words.
Post 180:
It was also somewhat of a placeholder/RVS until I had constructed a readlist.
Aww, I love you too.
Both choosing betrayal is null to both parties.
I wonder where that puts me...
This was sarcasm
This was also sarcasm, but it was pointed at LW's response:
Because my whole point on calling his defense of Tom a scum tell was that he did it subconsciously.
osie's read on me #348 looks good. (I use mobile slang alot. sorry~) p much how everyone tends to read me. from track record, accusations tend to go in my direction whenever such a post about me comes up...and they're usually from scum. Killjoy and DV, in particular, are banking on it. I want some questions thrown my way from those two, if they think they're on to smthing.
to give some incentive to the dogfight...
Vote: D_V
never liked how u claimed some pseudo backup or whateverrrr that needs so much BP. and I'm not sure if abilities even need that much BP in the first place. it's dangerous to suggest town to ally with scum who might betray them, and I have valid reason to not want to ally with u as u are my scumread. mechanics, aka BP needs, won't tempt me to change my mind on who I ally or betray.
looking for a reaction. and he wanted someone to question him so... why not?
Be grateful, always."
Because this
Is super town AMIRIGHT?
Nothing solid?
I'M DOING A LOT!
Anyways, what's wrong with Axelrod?
Is reality altered? I say "give me an apple," and you say, "I think instead I should give you an apple." And then you don't give me an apple.
As a reiteration, give me an apple.
Me - I don't get what you mean by saying a thing that didn't follow previous sentiments? If you don't get something I say, ask me.
Last Whisper - Because they appear new and innocent you choose to trust them. I feel like someone being new makes them easier to read.
DBS - See above
Axelrod - What don't you agree with?
DV - What did Azrael say about DV that made you distrust him?
His scum partner KJ said that you were doing nothing though.
So you gotta be doing nothing.
KJ's whole post was a laughable excuse that doesn't even mirror what has happened in the game at all. But don't worry. Its got the Az stamp of approval. TM TM.
Be grateful, always."
I like this post by Jenna. Jenna is comfortably in my townleans.