Presumably that means we lose after the night is over, or if not tonight, then tomorrow when Pizza has his way. This has been less fun than I anticipated, between absent players and Pizza's hostile manner. But thank you for the game nonetheless.
I still don't get why we didn't no lynch. We had the chance to remove a suspect and instead over the course of two weeks the game led up to the inevitable outcome. I'm not terribly upset. I just feel like it was a waste of time.
So, ScumGrape and TownPizza confirmed. How does that affect your view of the current gamestate?
Pizza had a lot of very good points on why you were next on the list after Grapefruit, but since we are again in MyLo I do not want to just rush into lynching you without hearing from you first. If you are town, convince me.
Askthepizzaguy has died in the night! He was Jett, Town Thief (Jack of All Trades).
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
Askthepizzaguy has died in the night! He was Jett, Town Thief (Jack of All Trades).
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
... Calling him a liar because he lied a bit about his role is a gross exaggeration. This is such a poor reaction that I would vote you know. Instead of trying to point out and convince people why your game is town, you went to smearing a literal confirmed town that lead a lynch on the first scum. Why is saying that he isn't a joat such a bad thing? Not interacting with you, allegedly still filling in the game, is a more legitimate point, but none of that matters when he was both town and right on a scumlynch.
Grapefruit is a credible lynch because Bear was scummy, (the end of day play leading to the Osie hammer, the lack of any real push on anyone), Grapefruits play was better, but still not really pressuring anyone. And it's just not possible to ignore the counter claim. Two town vigs seems extremely unlikely.
Talk me out of it, make a case for something/someone different. The big problem is I think a mislynch is a loss (3 scum, 5 town?), but we're not doing anything productive to change that.
and there's nothing between that and your vote that indicates you've changed that read of Grape. You've answered why you voted for Pizza, but not what your goal with that vote was since the lynch had already happened. And even if Grape flipped town, we hadn't necessarily lost since a successful block of the NK would have left us in LyLo today.
Askthepizzaguy has died in the night! He was Jett, Town Thief (Jack of All Trades).
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
Further to what Anak (Hey Anak ) had to say about this, I'd like to point out the bolded here. How does his lying about his role have anything to do with his push on Grapefruit?
Grapefruit is a credible lynch because Bear was scummy, (the end of day play leading to the Osie hammer, the lack of any real push on anyone), Grapefruits play was better, but still not really pressuring anyone. And it's just not possible to ignore the counter claim. Two town vigs seems extremely unlikely.
Talk me out of it, make a case for something/someone different. The big problem is I think a mislynch is a loss (3 scum, 5 town?), but we're not doing anything productive to change that.
and there's nothing between that and your vote that indicates you've changed that read of Grape. You've answered why you voted for Pizza, but not what your goal with that vote was since the lynch had already happened. And even if Grape flipped town, we hadn't necessarily lost since a successful block of the NK would have left us in LyLo today.
I had no goal. I thought we lost. I was never locked on scumGrape, but was very tunnelled on scumVoxx/Pizza. I was wrong.
Askthepizzaguy has died in the night! He was Jett, Town Thief (Jack of All Trades).
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
... Calling him a liar because he lied a bit about his role is a gross exaggeration. This is such a poor reaction that I would vote you know. Instead of trying to point out and convince people why your game is town, you went to smearing a literal confirmed town that lead a lynch on the first scum. Why is saying that he isn't a joat such a bad thing? Not interacting with you, allegedly still filling in the game, is a more legitimate point, but none of that matters when he was both town and right on a scumlynch.
My suspicions justified is the takeaway. Curious that Grapefruit's lynch occurred without the support of all five remaining town players. Perhaps there were six.
Askthepizzaguy has died in the night! He was Jett, Town Thief (Jack of All Trades).
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
Further to what Anak (Hey Anak ) had to say about this, I'd like to point out the bolded here. How does his lying about his role have anything to do with his push on Grapefruit?
I am explaining how the toxicity in his play was the reason for my suspicion. It's frustrating that he was on my side.
Grapefruit is a credible lynch because Bear was scummy, (the end of day play leading to the Osie hammer, the lack of any real push on anyone), Grapefruits play was better, but still not really pressuring anyone. And it's just not possible to ignore the counter claim. Two town vigs seems extremely unlikely.
Talk me out of it, make a case for something/someone different. The big problem is I think a mislynch is a loss (3 scum, 5 town?), but we're not doing anything productive to change that.
and there's nothing between that and your vote that indicates you've changed that read of Grape. You've answered why you voted for Pizza, but not what your goal with that vote was since the lynch had already happened. And even if Grape flipped town, we hadn't necessarily lost since a successful block of the NK would have left us in LyLo today.
I had no goal. I thought we lost. I was never locked on scumGrape, but was very tunnelled on scumVoxx/Pizza. I was wrong.
Askthepizzaguy has died in the night! He was Jett, Town Thief (Jack of All Trades).
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
Further to what Anak (Hey Anak ) had to say about this, I'd like to point out the bolded here. How does his lying about his role have anything to do with his push on Grapefruit?
I am explaining how the toxicity in his play was the reason for my suspicion. It's frustrating that he was on my side.
First you bring up that he lied about his claim, now you accuse him of toxic play? Which is it? Lying about claims is par for the course in this game, I could claim Vanilla when I'm actually the Doc to avoid being targeted by the NK, or I could claim doctor as Vanilla to draw the NK away from a stronger town player.
And I see no toxicity in Pizza's posts, if that's what you perceive to be toxic then you might not have the right constitution for Mafia. I have seen true toxicity, players modkilled for abusive language and behaviour/town fake claiming a guilty cop result on another town simply because they did not like the player and then gloating about it after the game ended/players replacing out because they don't want to play with certain others/the list goes on.
It looks to me like you're grasping at straws to explain your joining scum grape in voting for townPizza yesterday. That together with Pizza's read of you is a strong enough case for me.
Reread Killjoy in light of the flips.
The big one is deflecting off of Bear arguing that it wasn't a likely lynch in the time remaining.
However, at one point in the phase Bear had the most votes. Vote Killjoy
Jenna
Anaklusmos
Killjoy
Tubba Fett
~I would be willing to claim here~
Dota shouldn't claim unless they have relevant info.
DoTA is pretty obviously Town with the grapefruit flip, and Jenna is pretty scum given they're the only plausible scum on two different mislynch wagons (Day 2 Meg and Day 1 shadow).
I would be fine with hammering Jenna now, except I would like some time to think about who the third scum is (particularly to do votal analysis). I don't want to get NK'd and leave Town without my thoughts.
If anybody (except Jenna I guess) doubts DoTA is Town please speak now so I can correct that misconception.
------
@Anaklusmos
I think Jenna is wrong that Pizza ever fake-claimed? I would have to dig through Pizza's giant ISO to check. The player Pizza replaced claimed to be RB'd N1 when the slot wasn't.
@Jenna Please quote the post where Pizza stated he was a pure commuter.
My role is definitely weak, commute is basically worth.... I dunno. 0.1 wolves. Not even that.
The difference between a comma and a period is the difference between expounding on a topic and saying two separate thoughts in deceptively close within a paragraph.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I strongly recommend we choose No Lynch. If we review ourselves now, the best we can do is clear a player who will get killed tonight. But if we choose No Lynch now, the mafia might kill someone who could have never been cleared via behavior.
My role is definitely weak, commute is basically worth.... I dunno. 0.1 wolves. Not even that.
The difference between a comma and a period is the difference between expounding on a topic and saying two separate thoughts in deceptively close within a paragraph.
20 posts is "way before" the post I found? I was reasonably certain that #635 existed, but I couldn't find it, so I settled for #655, which is, in fact, a better example of a subtle lie. In #869 you put for a request that I find a post where he said he was a commuter. I found one. You did not ask me to find the first post where he stated he was a commuter. I'm not sure what your problem is, but please stop moving the goalposts.
Still here reading along, trying to not read much from the current goings so as not to confuse my view of the game state. Won't be caught up tonight, but should be able to post and keep up tomorrow
Caught up, quick thoughts on people, Jenna is super scum that I would hammer now, and I'm pretty convinced KJ is the other one. I will happily claim whenever people want me to.
Jenna not only is your first response today a bizarre reaction, but you never once brought up the fact that GF counter-claimed and then the person he CC's flipped town. Like, never acknowledged it could be a thing, and just blanket defended GF until he died.
KJ's hammer vote looks terrible as well.
Gah no time to say what I want now that I can, see you in a few hours.
My suspicions justified is the takeaway. Curious that Grapefruit's lynch occurred without the support of all five remaining town players. Perhaps there were six.
Clarify the bolded for me please? I think I have an idea of what you mean but I'd like to hear it from you please.
I strongly recommend we choose No Lynch. If we reviewreveal ourselves now, the best we can do is clear a player who will get killed tonight. But if we choose No Lynch now, the mafia might kill someone who could have never been cleared via behavior.
1)I assume that was a typo and was supposed to read as I've corrected it here in bold?
2)You seem to have confused "No Massclaim" with "No Lynch" in this post here, as it only makes sense if I replace the word lynch with the word massclaim. No lynch would not have any effect on who the mafia choose to kill. And you can't say that you're against the massclaim idea since you went and claimed before anyone could even discuss Reverb's idea. (I'm not 100% convinced we should risk a massclaim yet, but am willing to discuss it as an option)
3)No lynching is still a terrible idea for the same reasons I posted yesterday. allow me to expand on that though:
No lynch at this point takes us from a 6 player MyLo to a 5 player LyLo assuming the nightkill happens. As you point out above, scum would aim for the player most likely to be cleared by behaviour which means we have a pool of 5 murky players and no more chances to screw up. Alternatively, if the NK is prevented in any way or scum choose not to fire, we find ourselves in the exact same boat we are in today except now you open up the possibility for claims/counterclaims as to why the NK failed. No Lynch (in my opinion) should only ever be used in one of two scenarios, a) town have several mislynches available and are looking to gain extra insight from night abilities(cop/tracker/watcher) or b)town find themselves in 4 player MyLo and want/need to narrow the field.
20 posts is "way before" the post I found? I was reasonably certain that #635 existed, but I couldn't find it, so I settled for #655, which is, in fact, a better example of a subtle lie. In #869 you put for a request that I find a post where he said he was a commuter. I found one. You did not ask me to find the first post where he stated he was a commuter. I'm not sure what your problem is, but please stop moving the goalposts.
Reverb's point stands, Pizza was referring to a part of his claim in #655 and was not full-claiming in that post.
Jenna not only is your first response today a bizarre reaction, but you never once brought up the fact that GF counter-claimed and then the person he CC's flipped town. Like, never acknowledged it could be a thing, and just blanket defended GF until he died.
I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I have been focused on moving forward since the beginning of Day 2 and I haven't changed course at all, despite Pizza's negative attitude. I still believe we should force the mafia to eliminate a suspect.
My suspicions justified is the takeaway. Curious that Grapefruit's lynch occurred without the support of all five remaining town players. Perhaps there were six.
Clarify the bolded for me please? I think I have an idea of what you mean but I'd like to hear it from you please.
I strongly recommend we choose No Lynch. If we reviewreveal ourselves now, the best we can do is clear a player who will get killed tonight. But if we choose No Lynch now, the mafia might kill someone who could have never been cleared via behavior.
1)I assume that was a typo and was supposed to read as I've corrected it here in bold?
2)You seem to have confused "No Massclaim" with "No Lynch" in this post here, as it only makes sense if I replace the word lynch with the word massclaim. No lynch would not have any effect on who the mafia choose to kill. And you can't say that you're against the massclaim idea since you went and claimed before anyone could even discuss Reverb's idea. (I'm not 100% convinced we should risk a massclaim yet, but am willing to discuss it as an option)
3)No lynching is still a terrible idea for the same reasons I posted yesterday. allow me to expand on that though:
No lynch at this point takes us from a 6 player MyLo to a 5 player LyLo assuming the nightkill happens. As you point out above, scum would aim for the player most likely to be cleared by behaviour which means we have a pool of 5 murky players and no more chances to screw up. Alternatively, if the NK is prevented in any way or scum choose not to fire, we find ourselves in the exact same boat we are in today except now you open up the possibility for claims/counterclaims as to why the NK failed. No Lynch (in my opinion) should only ever be used in one of two scenarios, a) town have several mislynches available and are looking to gain extra insight from night abilities(cop/tracker/watcher) or b)town find themselves in 4 player MyLo and want/need to narrow the field.
20 posts is "way before" the post I found? I was reasonably certain that #635 existed, but I couldn't find it, so I settled for #655, which is, in fact, a better example of a subtle lie. In #869 you put for a request that I find a post where he said he was a commuter. I found one. You did not ask me to find the first post where he stated he was a commuter. I'm not sure what your problem is, but please stop moving the goalposts.
Reverb's point stands, Pizza was referring to a part of his claim in #655 and was not full-claiming in that post.
snip At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades snip
Where did he say that?
Town block
Reverb
Anak
Need to reread
Killjoy
Tubba
Should be Lynched today
Jenna
#1: Grapefruit was mafia, and it took 5 votes to lynch him. Suppose our ranks were 5 town to 3 mafia. We all needed to be on the vote, but we weren't. That suggests two options: either there were 6 town to 2 mafia, or a mafia voted Grapefruit when they didn't have to. Which is more likely I can't say.
#2.1: I meant what I said. To conduct a review now and out our reads is silly when we can use No Lynch to make them kill a suspect. Otherwise we reveal information that helps guide their kill.
#2.2: I meant what I said. You seem to imply that you know who the mafia intend to kill, though. Very suspicious indeed.
#2.3: You suggest that there are "5 murky players" yet in your list below you have 2 people listed as a "Town block." Despite this glaring flaw, you also suggest that a protective role might use their ability to block the kill, which they shouldn't, or that the mafia might No Kill, to which we just No Lynch until the meteor (or whatever it is called here) forces them to act. There is no downside in this case.
#3: Reaverb's point does NOT stand. Do NOT move the goalposts.
#4: Refer to his description of himself #655, reproduced below.
Jenna is either attempting to gaslight the thread or isn't reading the thread properly now to understand why people believe they misrepresented what pizza said. I think I'm done interacting with Jenna unless a third party prompts me to.
K cool I don't see order mattering much here. I am Damien, town bodyguard. Night one I targeted voxx and was told my ability failed, night two I protected reverb and was told my ability existed, night three I targeted pizza and was told my ability failed.
Which made me really sad because that ruined an awesome line where I replace in, protect someone, die, and we go on to win. So that I helped us win without ever posting, idk sounds funny to me.
No lynching here makes so little sense anyone pushing it is going to be scumread really strongly. We have DotA at least who is all but guaranteed town, and no lynching is going to cause him to die for example. How does that help us? Reverb is very high up there too, so certainly one of those two would die. And that's the best case scenario, because if scum have any extra kill power, then a no lynch wins them the game outright!
So no, a no lynch isn't happening, and I am going to have to be pulled really strongly to not specifically lynch Jenna.
To be clear, PRs don't bother me, in fact I like them. It can make that player more involved in the game and inject some humor into Mafia, where emotions can he high and everything very serious. Jenna's PR was the first one I ever encountered where I felt completely unable to understand what was being said or any mentality behind it. And mind you I played a role that had five different Tom PRs in the same game! It felt like an intentional attempt to subvert trying to say anything, which considering the speed of the game didn't stand out from the other players.
Then yesterday, Jenna defends GF very strongly, and tries to push Pizza as scum. People can be wrong sure, but then coming into today where she was completely wrong about people the day before, starts this tirade about Pizza lying about his role to somehow discredit what he said prior. He's confirmed town, why are you trying to paint him as lying?! Because you have no other defense for the points he brought against you, because Jenna is scum, and saw the only way out as trying to immediately stymie a wagon from starting.
Not voting yet just so we have time to get claims in from people, but Jenna is scum and no lynch is pants on head ridiculous.
Like everyone here needs to see that Pizza was town, not trying to pull a fast one on the game, and read through his thought processes again knowing this. I understand being a bit tin foily when Pizza was alive, strong analysis like that from good players get me on the conspiracy theory mindset too.
But we know now that it was all genuine, and knowing that changes the entire perspective of what he was putting forth.
Let's see if we can finally get a good game pace going. Fourth times the charm
How votal analysis works: (since a few posts by players this game has made it seem some players don’t know)
1) Scum tend not to vote one-right-after-the other on wagons. This is a manifestation of scum’s desire to be seen as “reasonable” more than wanting to actually find scum - they tend to want a Townie to “confirm” a wagon is reasonable before jumping on. Scum players do this instinctively without thinking about it. I think this tell is underused, because I recently analyzed a game for this tell and discovered scum voted together around 1/4th the rate you’d expect if player alignment didn’t matter for the probability of being wagon neighbors, and the scum specifically attempted to dodge this very tell.
2) Wagons on Townies tend to contain some scum. This has nothing to do with the “statistics” that any group of 5ish players is likely to contain a scum and everything to do with the fact that as a mislynch acquires more Townies it becomes a more and more desirable target of scum to vote on. Similar to rule of 3, this means wagons contain a scum/Town ratio with less variance than a completely random group of players.
3) Scum don’t like bussing. There are two specific places where scum are extremely unlikely to bus - when there is another wagon on a townie of similar size, or very early (First 3 votes).
All these are subject to being given more or less credence due to context. Votal analysis isn’t a magic formula and more a system of detecting scum behavior which is likely to fall through the cracks otherwise, and to determine how your reads interact before players involved have flipped.
Vote Count 1.8 DoTArchon - 3 (Jenna Tolaria, King Torg, A Bear)
osieorb18 - 3 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy)
And here's the proof DoTA is Town.
A Bear's vote there is ludicrous bus if DoTA is their buddy. They could have easily voted Osie and inflamed that wagon, but instead they tied DoTA's wagon. Coloring DoTA as Town and Jenna as scum in future votals.
In retrospect the fact they didn't is evidence Killjoy is their buddy. This is an avoidance behavior, and is part of the reason that scum tend not to go right after each other on votals - they feel an instinct to spread out.
Note that King Torg has just moved from DoTA, breaking the 3-3-3 pattern.
From between when it was 3-3-3 with Osie’s vote on Bear and Torg breaking it, the following players posted:
Shadow
Killjoy
TubbaFett
(myself for completeness)
That implies these players didn’t really care which of {DotArchon/Osie/A Bear} got lynched. If any of these are scum, it’s probable they couldn’t move the lynch away from a scumbuddy in that list.
Ok so this is mostly confirmed, we're down to Killjoy/TubbaFett maybe not working with A Bear.
One thing I didn't notice last time is that either TubbaFett or Killjoy would be moving on to the DoTA wagon next to A Bear, which weakens the evidence somewhat. I also saw players post about a Killjoy post which tries to make the A Bear wagon seem like a less possible option:
Hmm, I don't know whether to believe the scum have to be in Tubba Fett / Killjoy because of that wagon or continue scumreading Colin-slot for not voting the entire day, bleh. Tail end of Osie wagon is shadow/Voxx/A Bear, but Colin wasn't around to possibly interfere so.
I would say that being off the mislynches D1 when A Bear could have been lynched is slight positive for Colin-slot.
Jenna is either attempting to gaslight the thread or isn't reading the thread properly now to understand why people believe they misrepresented what pizza said. I think I'm done interacting with Jenna unless a third party prompts me to.
I apologize for appearing out of order. I feel like your accusation requires a greater explanation, because you seem to be stuck believing that Pizza didn't lie when he absolutely did. We aren't even able to progress into the actual issues since we can't agree on these basic facts.
People can be wrong sure, but then coming into today where she was completely wrong about people the day before, starts this tirade about Pizza lying about his role to somehow discredit what he said prior. He's confirmed town, why are you trying to paint him as lying?!
There's nothing that proves that I'm mafia. Pizza was lying, he was intentionally ignoring me, and he was controlling the game. He's proven that he will lie to get where he wants and that's why you should disregard everything he said about me.
There's nothing that proves that I'm mafia. Pizza was lying, he was intentionally ignoring me, and he was controlling the game. He's proven that he will lie to get where he wants and that's why you should disregard everything he said about me.
Firstly, Pizza never lied about his role. You've looked at one single post and taken a portion of it out of context to prove a point. Here's a dissection of Pizza's claims:
Sec1My role is definitely weak, commute is basically worth.... I dunno. 0.1 wolves. Not even that. It's not for solving, but it can keep a strong player alive who typically dies on n1. Sec2The kidnap is like a weaker version of a jailkeep, because jailkeep doesn't stop town investigations (like a tracker). So kidnapping will interfere with the town tracker, which is good, I like roles that take the punch out of investigative powers, because cops suck for the game yet people refuse to play without them.
So, a jailkeep is a combo of roleblock and doctor but gives the downsides of both. You jailkeep a scum, they cannot be vig'ed that night. You jailkeep a town power, they can't use their actions.
Kidnapping interferes with both the vigilante and the town tracker, lessening the strength of both roles. Fits rather nicely into the setup so far, and a full kidnapper instead of a one shot might have been really worth it to whoever gets the role.
Sec3The messaging power just seems like bells and whistles. Doesn't do much, if you have no investigatory powers. I suppose I could have written my leans list as my last will and testament and given it to a townie I trusted during the night phase, in case I died. And in my case in particular, that might be worth a wolf. But usually it should be worth nothing.
Town had kill power, town had investigative power, town has a bells and whistles role to keep the game from being boring. Call it a limited roleblock/doc with a single functioning commute. Sec4Pseudo jack of all trades.
Section 1: This is the part of the post that you quoted earlier as being proof that Pizza said he's a commuter. HOWEVER... Sections 2 & 3: The very next sentence talks about his 1-shot kidnap, and section 3 about his 1-shot messaging ability. Looking back at what you said earlier,
20 posts is "way before" the post I found? I was reasonably certain that #635 existed, but I couldn't find it, so I settled for #655, which is, in fact, a better example of a subtle lie. In #869 you put for a request that I find a post where he said he was a commuter. I found one. You did not ask me to find the first post where he stated he was a commuter. I'm not sure what your problem is, but please stop moving the goalposts.
Yes, you found a post where he says he's a commuter but you didn't look at or mention the fact that he also says he has a kidnap and messaging power which is all there in the same post.
And finally Section 4: This is not a denial that he is a JoAT, he is pointing out that his role (Thief) is esentially the same as a JoAT.@Everyone: Pizza mentioned in his post that he would try and send the one shot message, can anyone confirm having received it? Not sure if his death would interfere with it going off.
There's nothing that proves that I'm mafia. Pizza was lying, he was intentionally ignoring me, and he was controlling the game. He's proven that he will lie to get where he wants and that's why you should disregard everything he said about me.
I think I've managed to prove that Pizza was not lying as you say he was, and why would we disregard everything he said about you after he was 100% spot on about Grapefruit AND flipped town. Your weak attempts to defend yourself instead of scumhunting since this Day started together with Pizza's scumread of you is exactly why I want you lynched.Need to start working on finding third scum...
Goodness. Somehow I managed to miss that entirely. I'm sorry. There is still the matter of Pizza ignoring me as a reason to disregard his analysis. This is entirely unresolved. And I don't expect it to. It's been nearly three weeks and we haven't been able to get past this. I asked back then that if you were planning on voting me just to get it over with. It's been horrible that for three weeks we cannot resolve this.
@Everyone: Pizza mentioned in his post that he would try and send the one shot message, can anyone confirm having received it? Not sure if his death would interfere with it going off.
I got the message, stayed quiet hoping scum might fakeclaim receiving it. Will spill its contents before Day ends.
Guys, I'm sorry but I've been sick. I've been keeping up with the thread, just not having any ambition to post.
I think it's probably Jenna and Killjoy. Jenna's obfuscation early game has been replaced by self preservation and scrambling. Killjoy has been more consistent but looking at past votals (ala Tau) and their deflection off of Bear has me suspecting the slot.
You should not be trying to sit here and find ways to somehow discredit what pizza was saying, you should be trying to prove your towniness in spite of his claims. Discrediting a known town that suspected you and lead lynch on scum is not possible to really do, and the only reason I can see you doing it is you are caught scum that has no other defense.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Pizza's message was mostly re-iterating his townreads, main thing he didn't share in-thread was changing from Killjoy being scum to Tubba (so he now thinks it's grapefruit/Jenna/Tubba)
His evidence:
1) Tubba had massively less activity D3
1) Tubba delayed lynching grape (pizza interprets this as hoping we would lynch killjoy instead)
3) Grapefruit behaved rather content on his way down D3, indicating something is wrong with the consensus world view.
Additional note: I don't technically have mechanical confirmation that the message came from pizza, it is mechanically anonymous. It was obviously written from pizza's viewpoint though.
Tubba read doesn't surprise me actually, Pizza was never as sold on KJ as he was on Grape/Jenna. I've been back and forth between the two as the final scum, will complete my reread during night phase and go from there (assuming I survive the night...)
Because there are no remaining roles that can fully prevent the night kill, the mafia team of Grapefruit21, Killjoy, and Reaverb Tau have won the game. Congratulations!
It is technically twilight until I post the votal + Jenna's actual flip, but, post game starts now for all intents and purposes.
Scum chat and spec chat will be posted by me with the votal post, though anyone with access to those chats may feel free to link them first.
You may continue posting. Spectators, dead players, and other nonparticipants may also post.
Effective immediately, Anaklusmos replaces Colin.
Vote Count 3.Final
Grapefruit21 - 5 (Askthepizzaguy, DoTArchon, Colin, Reaverb Tau, Killjoy) (L-0)
Askthepizzaguy - 2 (Jenna Tolaria, Grapefruit21) (L-3)
Not Voting - 1 (Tubba Fett)
Aaand here's your flip:
Grapefruit21 was lynched as of post #843. He was Rowena, Mafia Watcher.
It is now Night 3, please do not post. Night Actions are due by 11:00 PM Eastern on November 19th.
Vote Count 1.8, Vote Count 1.9, Vote Count 1.10, Vote Count 1.11, Vote Count 1.12, Vote Count 1.13, Vote Count 1.Final
Day 2: Vote Count 2.1, Vote Count 2.2, Vote Count 2.3, Vote Count 2.4, Vote Count 2.5, Vote Count 2.Final
Day 3: Vote Count 3.1, Vote Count 3.2
Livelist:
1. TubbaFett
2. DoTArchon
3. Reaverb Tau
4. Jenna Tolaria
5. Anaklusmos r. Colin
6. Killjoy r. Empoof
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 deadline is 11:59 PM Eastern on 1 December.
It is now Day 4. You may post.
Pizza had a lot of very good points on why you were next on the list after Grapefruit, but since we are again in MyLo I do not want to just rush into lynching you without hearing from you first. If you are town, convince me.
Pizza said he was a commuter, not a thief. At one point he even said he wasn't a jack of all trades. While he was right about Grapefruit, he lied to get there, not by omission or through misdirection but with a straight up bold-faced lie. So before you go voting me, you should take a long look at this Toxic Pizza who never once talked to me despite my many attempts to reach out to him and his nature of lying about anything necessary to get the way he wants. If you decide to believe that liar I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
... Calling him a liar because he lied a bit about his role is a gross exaggeration. This is such a poor reaction that I would vote you know. Instead of trying to point out and convince people why your game is town, you went to smearing a literal confirmed town that lead a lynch on the first scum. Why is saying that he isn't a joat such a bad thing? Not interacting with you, allegedly still filling in the game, is a more legitimate point, but none of that matters when he was both town and right on a scumlynch.
I thought Grape might've been town, Pizza was scum and we had just lost. Clearly, I'm very, consistently wrong.
I had no goal. I thought we lost. I was never locked on scumGrape, but was very tunnelled on scumVoxx/Pizza. I was wrong.
And I see no toxicity in Pizza's posts, if that's what you perceive to be toxic then you might not have the right constitution for Mafia. I have seen true toxicity, players modkilled for abusive language and behaviour/town fake claiming a guilty cop result on another town simply because they did not like the player and then gloating about it after the game ended/players replacing out because they don't want to play with certain others/the list goes on.
It looks to me like you're grasping at straws to explain your joining scum grape in voting for townPizza yesterday. That together with Pizza's read of you is a strong enough case for me.
Vote: Jenna Tolaria
The big one is deflecting off of Bear arguing that it wasn't a likely lynch in the time remaining.
However, at one point in the phase Bear had the most votes.
Vote Killjoy
I would want a massclaim in this order:
Jenna
Anaklusmos
Killjoy
Tubba Fett
~I would be willing to claim here~
Dota shouldn't claim unless they have relevant info.
DoTA is pretty obviously Town with the grapefruit flip, and Jenna is pretty scum given they're the only plausible scum on two different mislynch wagons (Day 2 Meg and Day 1 shadow).
I would be fine with hammering Jenna now, except I would like some time to think about who the third scum is (particularly to do votal analysis). I don't want to get NK'd and leave Town without my thoughts.
------
@Anaklusmos
I think Jenna is wrong that Pizza ever fake-claimed? I would have to dig through Pizza's giant ISO to check. The player Pizza replaced claimed to be RB'd N1 when the slot wasn't.
@Jenna Please quote the post where Pizza stated he was a pure commuter.
That's annoying because I thought he was town.
Because Pizza full-claimed way before the post Jenna quoted:
#635 has pizza's full claim
#655 is where Jenna's pizza quote comes from:
Jenna not only is your first response today a bizarre reaction, but you never once brought up the fact that GF counter-claimed and then the person he CC's flipped town. Like, never acknowledged it could be a thing, and just blanket defended GF until he died.
KJ's hammer vote looks terrible as well.
Gah no time to say what I want now that I can, see you in a few hours.
1)I assume that was a typo and was supposed to read as I've corrected it here in bold?
2)You seem to have confused "No Massclaim" with "No Lynch" in this post here, as it only makes sense if I replace the word lynch with the word massclaim. No lynch would not have any effect on who the mafia choose to kill. And you can't say that you're against the massclaim idea since you went and claimed before anyone could even discuss Reverb's idea. (I'm not 100% convinced we should risk a massclaim yet, but am willing to discuss it as an option)
3)No lynching is still a terrible idea for the same reasons I posted yesterday. allow me to expand on that though:
No lynch at this point takes us from a 6 player MyLo to a 5 player LyLo assuming the nightkill happens. As you point out above, scum would aim for the player most likely to be cleared by behaviour which means we have a pool of 5 murky players and no more chances to screw up. Alternatively, if the NK is prevented in any way or scum choose not to fire, we find ourselves in the exact same boat we are in today except now you open up the possibility for claims/counterclaims as to why the NK failed. No Lynch (in my opinion) should only ever be used in one of two scenarios, a) town have several mislynches available and are looking to gain extra insight from night abilities(cop/tracker/watcher) or b)town find themselves in 4 player MyLo and want/need to narrow the field.
Reverb's point stands, Pizza was referring to a part of his claim in #655 and was not full-claiming in that post.
Where did he say that?
Town block
Reverb
Anak
Need to reread
Killjoy
Tubba
Should be Lynched today
Jenna
#1: Grapefruit was mafia, and it took 5 votes to lynch him. Suppose our ranks were 5 town to 3 mafia. We all needed to be on the vote, but we weren't. That suggests two options: either there were 6 town to 2 mafia, or a mafia voted Grapefruit when they didn't have to. Which is more likely I can't say.
#2.1: I meant what I said. To conduct a review now and out our reads is silly when we can use No Lynch to make them kill a suspect. Otherwise we reveal information that helps guide their kill.
#2.2: I meant what I said. You seem to imply that you know who the mafia intend to kill, though. Very suspicious indeed.
#2.3: You suggest that there are "5 murky players" yet in your list below you have 2 people listed as a "Town block." Despite this glaring flaw, you also suggest that a protective role might use their ability to block the kill, which they shouldn't, or that the mafia might No Kill, to which we just No Lynch until the meteor (or whatever it is called here) forces them to act. There is no downside in this case.
#3: Reaverb's point does NOT stand. Do NOT move the goalposts.
#4: Refer to his description of himself #655, reproduced below.
----
I would like you to claim this Day phase because I don't entirely trust anybody else detect a fakeclaim.
Which made me really sad because that ruined an awesome line where I replace in, protect someone, die, and we go on to win. So that I helped us win without ever posting, idk sounds funny to me.
No lynching here makes so little sense anyone pushing it is going to be scumread really strongly. We have DotA at least who is all but guaranteed town, and no lynching is going to cause him to die for example. How does that help us? Reverb is very high up there too, so certainly one of those two would die. And that's the best case scenario, because if scum have any extra kill power, then a no lynch wins them the game outright!
So no, a no lynch isn't happening, and I am going to have to be pulled really strongly to not specifically lynch Jenna.
To be clear, PRs don't bother me, in fact I like them. It can make that player more involved in the game and inject some humor into Mafia, where emotions can he high and everything very serious. Jenna's PR was the first one I ever encountered where I felt completely unable to understand what was being said or any mentality behind it. And mind you I played a role that had five different Tom PRs in the same game! It felt like an intentional attempt to subvert trying to say anything, which considering the speed of the game didn't stand out from the other players.
Then yesterday, Jenna defends GF very strongly, and tries to push Pizza as scum. People can be wrong sure, but then coming into today where she was completely wrong about people the day before, starts this tirade about Pizza lying about his role to somehow discredit what he said prior. He's confirmed town, why are you trying to paint him as lying?! Because you have no other defense for the points he brought against you, because Jenna is scum, and saw the only way out as trying to immediately stymie a wagon from starting.
Not voting yet just so we have time to get claims in from people, but Jenna is scum and no lynch is pants on head ridiculous.
But we know now that it was all genuine, and knowing that changes the entire perspective of what he was putting forth.
Let's see if we can finally get a good game pace going. Fourth times the charm
Actual Analysis
Assumptions: Nothing but flips
shadowlancerx - 5 (DoTArchon, Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18, Jenna) (L-2)
Had to make this one myself, up to #56.
This is pretty much "Either DoTA or Jenna is a wolf" and spoiler it's not DoTA
Day 2 lynch confirms this:
That is also "DoTA or Jenna is scum". So we have double confirmation of that fact.
Huh look more Jenna/DoTA anti-alignment.
Also oww that 3 flipped townies and a 4th flipped townie. Not unheard of but bleh.
And here's the proof DoTA is Town.
A Bear's vote there is ludicrous bus if DoTA is their buddy. They could have easily voted Osie and inflamed that wagon, but instead they tied DoTA's wagon. Coloring DoTA as Town and Jenna as scum in future votals.
In retrospect the fact they didn't is evidence Killjoy is their buddy. This is an avoidance behavior, and is part of the reason that scum tend not to go right after each other on votals - they feel an instinct to spread out.
Ok so this is mostly confirmed, we're down to Killjoy/TubbaFett maybe not working with A Bear.
One thing I didn't notice last time is that either TubbaFett or Killjoy would be moving on to the DoTA wagon next to A Bear, which weakens the evidence somewhat. I also saw players post about a Killjoy post which tries to make the A Bear wagon seem like a less possible option:
which is right where I was counting him as "being passive about A Bear lynch".
So at this point I wouldn't put this as good for Killjoy. It still looks town-y for Tubba Fett though.
Hmm, I don't know whether to believe the scum have to be in Tubba Fett / Killjoy because of that wagon or continue scumreading Colin-slot for not voting the entire day, bleh. Tail end of Osie wagon is shadow/Voxx/A Bear, but Colin wasn't around to possibly interfere so.
I would say that being off the mislynches D1 when A Bear could have been lynched is slight positive for Colin-slot.
A few weeks ago I would have said definitely not but since then I've learned a lot about how scum-sided 3 scum 9 Town is by raw numbers.
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/783914-it-was-a-dark-and-stormy-night-day-4-stolen-time?comment=855
My reply:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/783914-it-was-a-dark-and-stormy-night-day-4-stolen-time?comment=856
There's nothing that proves that I'm mafia. Pizza was lying, he was intentionally ignoring me, and he was controlling the game. He's proven that he will lie to get where he wants and that's why you should disregard everything he said about me.
635: Pizza claims his three 1 shot abilities 655: This is a goldmine, I'm breaking it up into sections, comments after Section 1: This is the part of the post that you quoted earlier as being proof that Pizza said he's a commuter. HOWEVER...
Sections 2 & 3: The very next sentence talks about his 1-shot kidnap, and section 3 about his 1-shot messaging ability. Looking back at what you said earlier, Yes, you found a post where he says he's a commuter but you didn't look at or mention the fact that he also says he has a kidnap and messaging power which is all there in the same post.
And finally Section 4: This is not a denial that he is a JoAT, he is pointing out that his role (Thief) is esentially the same as a JoAT.
@Everyone: Pizza mentioned in his post that he would try and send the one shot message, can anyone confirm having received it? Not sure if his death would interfere with it going off.
I think I've managed to prove that Pizza was not lying as you say he was, and why would we disregard everything he said about you after he was 100% spot on about Grapefruit AND flipped town. Your weak attempts to defend yourself instead of scumhunting since this Day started together with Pizza's scumread of you is exactly why I want you lynched.
Need to start working on finding third scum...
I think it's probably Jenna and Killjoy. Jenna's obfuscation early game has been replaced by self preservation and scrambling. Killjoy has been more consistent but looking at past votals (ala Tau) and their deflection off of Bear has me suspecting the slot.
You should not be trying to sit here and find ways to somehow discredit what pizza was saying, you should be trying to prove your towniness in spite of his claims. Discrediting a known town that suspected you and lead lynch on scum is not possible to really do, and the only reason I can see you doing it is you are caught scum that has no other defense.
Pizza's message was mostly re-iterating his townreads, main thing he didn't share in-thread was changing from Killjoy being scum to Tubba (so he now thinks it's grapefruit/Jenna/Tubba)
His evidence:
1) Tubba had massively less activity D3
1) Tubba delayed lynching grape (pizza interprets this as hoping we would lynch killjoy instead)
3) Grapefruit behaved rather content on his way down D3, indicating something is wrong with the consensus world view.
Additional note: I don't technically have mechanical confirmation that the message came from pizza, it is mechanically anonymous. It was obviously written from pizza's viewpoint though.
Because there are no remaining roles that can fully prevent the night kill, the mafia team of Grapefruit21, Killjoy, and Reaverb Tau have won the game. Congratulations!
It is technically twilight until I post the votal + Jenna's actual flip, but, post game starts now for all intents and purposes.
Scum chat and spec chat will be posted by me with the votal post, though anyone with access to those chats may feel free to link them first.
You may continue posting. Spectators, dead players, and other nonparticipants may also post.
Here is the actual message Pizza sent me, since I'm pretty sure the bbc code is only recorded in the PM I received.