If there is no kill during the night, I'll be alive to say this: It doesn't prove anything. Wolves can holster.
If there is 1 kill during the night, it's still possible one of the kills got stopped by someone.
Do not attempt to solve the game mechanically. Only read people's posts. lynch or lose is not a time when claims should sway you over posts.
Always get a 100 percent firm read on every living player and always read the entire game before pulling the trigger on someone I said was a townie. You could be right, but don't do it because claims/mechanics. You cannot verify claims anymore, it's too late.
The scums could even leave Colin alive on purpose just to get you to lynch there. Just re-assess everyone at final whatever it is. Don't go based off of claims.
If that's the last I get to say this game, don't ignore that part. read and re-asses, don't automatically vote.
If you ever go against my wishes and lynch inside Tau, Tubba, or Dota, go find my posts where I talked about why they are town.
You need to have good reasons why those reasons are wrong.
Summary:
Tau has a process that is unfakable. This is legitimately the best villager I've ever seen. He could be wrong on his guesses and still be a villager. And I think he's close to the mark anyway.
Dota cannot be a wolf. Grapefruit/Bear slot pushed him to what should have been his death on day one, and that was before they were under pressure. Grape scum means Dota is a villager.
Tubba is 1000 times better at acting like a villager this game. He has a process he believes and he's spoken more. This can be wrong but not often, and if he wins as scum here, virtual handshake for the massive improvement.
Colin and bear interactions look okay/good, not lock clearing for Colin. But Colin's posts are decent, meaty, and have content for most of the game.
I cannot lock clear him, but I can't find much of anything that's villagery going on outside of these four.
Colin's ISO on re-read could be deep wolfing. Pushes only people I think are town all game. Gets there on Grapefruit too late for it to matter.
I just don't know. I like a lot of this process but I have questions. I should have stuck to the plan and did my questioning process in full on Colin.
I just can't explain Killjoy's behavior today any other way than as scum behavior going for the win. If he's a villager that just happens to look exactly like scum, I don't know how to get there on him at all.
Claim of knowledge stuff doesn't work on me n1 not meshing exactly with the posts I'm seeing. If you target me n1 and get no results, you should be paying closer attention to me.
No?
I suppose he could think he's been roleblocked which doesn't lead directly to interest in me specifically.
I'll re-ISO killjoy I suppose, and try really hard to look for villaging I can understand. If I talk myself into this and it's right, that's quite a save. If I talk myself out of this and I end up being wrong, its on the list of town's biggest blunders.
Grape and Jenna feel too confident even where Grape is gonna get lynched. If that's not GG then it's possible I got Killjoy wrong, and he's easy to pocket if I'm also accusing him. He could also have no process I recognize.
Not saying I'm flipping the read, just... have to double check everything super carefully.
Tubba 5 days ago
Reaverb 4 days ago
Grapefruit 2 days ago
Colin 2 days ago
Archon today
Killjoy today
Pizza today
Myself today
Half of the game is gone. Even I took a 3-day break and nothing happened. The energy and excitement is long gone. I'm comfortable with stopping playing if everyone else is.
Grape, you say there is zero reason to think that mafia has extra KP however there is zero reason to think they don't. I'm not in the habit of throwing games, especially when there's an outed mafia flailing around. Enough is enough already. Grape has had plenty of time to produce something substantial and has done nothing. All we've had is trying to hide behind a claim that is full of holes and empty words. There has been nothing substantial provided to back up any claims Grape has made against others. Oh, and does no one else think it strange that Jenna has had sweet FA to say about someone claiming KP put on her failed? Because that's pretty bonkers to me.
We are definitely lynching Grape today. Anyone who thinks no lynching today is a good idea is either a lunatic or mafia (or both).
I believe that Jenna is most likely a wolf, we can evaluate that further as the day progresses and through tomorrow. I am not as convinced as pizza is that Killjoy is a wolf. I'm struggling to find a third wolf that sticks out much at the moment. Pizza and Tau seem the towniest right now, but outside of them I can make a town case or a wolf case for any of them.
Vote: Grapefruit21
@Colin
This is the part I'm having the most trouble with. It's not specific and leaves too many options on the table. I can read the ISO villagery and I can also see how it just pushes villagers. I need clarification.
There are only three places where the wolves can be at any given time. It cannot be vague; if certain people are town then it leaves only a couple specific places it can be. If you cross yourself off of the list, and you put Grape and Jenna in two of the wolf spots, there's still a wolf spot to fill. It should be simple, but there are a lot of never-lynch townies alive.
But the issue for me is that Tau is not an option and Dota is not an option. Grapefruit cancels Dota as an option. They're never on a team. And such an argument really can't be made, according to everything I've read this game. There's no way they push Dota when Osie is so lynchable. And they pushed it hard, kept Dota in contention for a long time. If someone accuses Dota of being a wolf, if they're townie, we just lose. I'm almost sure of it. If someone accuses Dota of being a wolf and the accuser is a wolf, well they need to die instead.
We agree on Tau. I don't ever lynch there.
That just leaves Tubba and myself. And I don't know if I buy a case on Tubba either. It would help to know what it is you've found that makes you disagree.
What specific case on a specific someone else? And why is Killjoy town? It is too crucial a detail to just leave vague. If there is any potential likelihood that you are about to die, you should make your thoughts / final reads as apparent, specific, and persuasive as possible.
If it's not Killjoy, I also need the help. Suppose you die, and it wasn't Killjoy. Who specifically are you pointing at and why? What should I be looking at more closely?
Not to rock the boat too hard but village needs to be married to each other to win. If there's uncertainty remaining it needs to be shaken out and addressed while we're still here to talk about it. I'm not comfortable with generalities, I need specifics.
If you're accusing Tubba specifically I need to know. And if I die, it needs to be a topic of conversation tomorrow, it can't just pass into nothingness.
I got killed by loose ends too often too recently to not ask about this. Anak looked a whole lot like a wolf to me last game and so I basically stopped looking in every corner for the final one. Three was enough and the fourth seemed obvious.
I'm not allowed to rest until I find one more villager, and I have wedding jitters over the claim, your pushes, and this generality.
Help me settle this so I can rest. I've looked at this game for too long to be this worried over what should be a sure thing.
Half of the game is gone. Even I took a 3-day break and nothing happened. The energy and excitement is long gone. I'm comfortable with stopping playing if everyone else is.
It's more up to the game host, but if any slot goes inactive, it's really unfair on both the host and the players.
If it were unanimous among the active players, I'd agree to a draw just due to the fact that we have had so much inactivity and it's killing the fun.
I put a lot of work into this game, but if people aren't having fun, which is the point after all, then I'd sign off on "they lived peacefully happily ever after" ending where no one loses. Since we showed up and tried.
I want to play but I've been painting a brick wall for days and it's not moving much.
I no longer see a possibility for Jenna to be town. I'd feel safe voting that slot today.
I would also be fine with such a vote movement. But it would have to include more than just us two.
I think there is an outside chance that Grape actually is the scum with an additional shot, they seem desperate not to lynch there specifically. If any round called for a bus, this is one of them. It is inadvisable to tie one's fate to that particular sinking ship.
I am okay with standing pat as Grape is scum. But I find Jenna to be approximately equal. If they were town we're always losing this game because I cannot town read them.
The vote movement shouldn't accomplish anything but if it helps anyone read the game or if they need a specific flip, Jenna is okay with me to be lynched ahead of grape, no one else.
I no longer see a possibility for Jenna to be town. I'd feel safe voting that slot today.
You were gone for five days and this is the only thing you can say. A resemblance of myself extending thirty olive branches to see they're all being burned to the ground. Once again talked at instead of to. And a sudden inspiration to vote me! As if it's an original thought. It's as if the conversation has traveled through time and we are back at the beginning of the game day where my counter-ultimatum is finally being considered. And then tossed aside as it was prior, but opaque. Is there any question is to why this is not fun?
Pizza is still scum, I'd only move my vote to dota. People are convinced I'm scum and not asking me questions. I don't know what else to do. I'm as convinced Pizza is scum as he's pretending to be about me.
Once again, still really sure it's grape/jenna, feel like I need to look at pizza/dota to be through. Will do that before Day ends.
Please do, Pizza being willing to audible to Megs yesterday makes no sense given the level of conviction he'd been expressing in his read on me.
As I already pointed out not too long ago, Pizza did try very hard to get you lynched yesterDay but others were more interested in a Torg/Megs lynch. I even quoted his post where he discusses it. Here's my post again in case you missed it:
I see I'm not getting the required help I need to lynch scum Grapefruit.
Seeing my villagers vote irrationally and divided does not give me good feelings about how this game is going to end.
I can't be bothered to put more effort into this game under these circumstances.
Grapefruit should hang, Tubba is off on a tangent thanks to Voxx playing fancy, and I am not a big fan of Shadow voting for Colin.
I don't believe either Grapefruit or Killjoy are townies. So, you're forcing me to lynch three deep into my scum pile, which is fine, since Megiddo either isn't town or won't be worth anything to town anyway.
Vote: Megiddo.
Hasta la vista.
Are you reading Pizza's posts or just trying anything you can think of to smear him?
Pizza is still scum, I'd only move my vote to dota. People are convinced I'm scum and not asking me questions. I don't know what else to do. I'm as convinced Pizza is scum as he's pretending to be about me.
I'm in the same awful experience as you though I don't see Archon as mafia.
@Jenna
Can you speak to any of the things I asked you five days ago? So you think Dot and Grape are town, ok, why?
Who do you think is scum and why? That's the problem, cryptic statements once in awhile aren't going to cut it at this point. If we don't get scum we lose. So if you're not scum, help me understand where you're coming from on your reads.
My big problem is nobody thought Voxx/Pizza was a thing until they had pressure brought on them. I'll be honest, I think it'd be a great feather in my cap to catch Pizza out. The game state is just not reflecting that.
However, nobody said anything about the possibility of Voxx/Pizza. Would scum not take advantage of that opportunity to push dirt on a veteran player? Why is a veteran player like Voxx/Pizza still alive?
@Dota I've been reading his posts. But I don't think that he would have moved as town in that circumstance. Yes town was dragging their feet but there weren't many hard town reads on me at that stage. Just a bunch of I'd rather do x, y, or z's. If Pizza is town and is that sure of my scumminess then forcing the issue and not giving his vote makes more sense than going to his third scum read (which he claimed was strong) which had heavily lurked. He was confident enough to call me openly howling, that isn't the time to compromise. He did it because he thought he could mislynch me today.
@Jenna What do you see as townie about Dota? Because I don't see it at all. And I've outlined my case on him multiple times.
@Tubba He was trying. Effort hides a lot of sins. Once the PoE shrank by 2 and I really buckled down I decided his play just couldn't be blustering town. His initial hard town read of Dota was a red flag but it looked like it could be legitimate. As did his textless scum read of me that really turned out to be more about Bear than myself. They pinged me, but I thought he was town because that level of energy and engagement is hard to fake. But as it kept playing out it became clear that he was scum. His aforementioned unnecessary switch to Megs, his moving the goal posts on me, his almost entirely opaque read of Dota. None of those are real reads that make any sort of sense. Throw in the bluster and theatrics and I am convinced he's a wolf.
Disagree with whoever said it could just be scum "wanting it more". "Wanting it more" would be having an ISO 6 pages long instead of 12 pages long. He's given himself so much room to make an unforced error while faking a villager process (in particular his escalation and deescalation of his plan to make Colin and Killjoy answer questions) that I don't see it as a wolf. He's almost certainly trying to keep Town aligned to his reads once he's NK'd.
Don't have much to say on his particulars, I think he's good enough at faking details that they move the needle little.
Why is a veteran player like Voxx/Pizza still alive?
This kind of question is very much a WIFOM question. But, there are actual factors of the game that could be examined and have it not be a simple question of is the poison in the goblet in front, or further away, with no way to tell. There are some factors that should tip the scales:
To me, the factors that are most likely to have affected that situation: Voxx was obviously playing to draw a kill. I even admitted it explicitly. You don't do that if you have doctor or detective powers. Those are the powers scums are most concerned with, when the vig is dead.
Next big thing is Shadowlancerx, his reads. I didn't agree with all of them, but Grape as a suspect? Oh hell yes.
He suspected both Bear/fruit and Jenna on day 1, moved off of Grape d2, but was willing to go back onto Grapefruit. And he never locked Jenna town. Two highly scummy people, one hard outed at this point, and Shadow had been accusing both. He was someone who is unlikely to be lynched AND is someone who could have a power hidden away. He was also top poster and not under a ton of suspicion since the five wagon on him d1. There's just no way to create a narrative where he's a wolf, and get that lynch. He's a danger of pushing a wolf to death today. He could have a power.
Why not pizza?
Thing is, I was the one pushing Grape the hardest, even though I was not first to the party. If I am killed, that lends a lot of credibility to my push on Grape. If Shadow is killed, he was going back and forth on Grape. His suspicions on Grape don't lend themselves to immediately being thought of as the motive for the kill. His suspicions elsewhere were not strong enough and can be dismissed or forgotten. Plus, until last night, I had Jenna as town over Colin. Shadow didn't have Jenna as explicitly town.
Obviously, if Jenna is guilty, there's really no reason to kill me. Jenna can ride my villagery body to endgame and win it. We are at mislynch and lose, so all pizza has to do is guess wrong once, and I was guessing wrong, I'm almost certain of it. Jenna outed today under the pressure, in my mind. I had an iso where I felt like I saw a villagery process on Jenna, and had Colin and Shadow between Jenna and my suspicions pile. Should have been comfortable enough for MYLO.
And the person I was pushing correctly, Grape, counterclaimed / outed himself to kill Megiddo. Me being correct about Grape and getting Grape lynched today does not actually make the wolves' position any worse than it was at the end of d2. Grape being outed isn't new info after he's lynched on day three.
If I spend all round pushing grape, everyone else on the scum team survives to the next round. Town hasn't made any real progress, except that we have indeed lynched the outed wolf, which should have been a given.
Things changed, however, after I opened the round with Jenna in my suspects list. Grape and Jenna in particular seemed to have gotten desperate, but after being shaken for a few days decided to push forward with a path to victory.
At least, at that moment, they believed they had a path to victory. That path is easily Grapefruit not being lynched, and No Lynch winning the day, or anyone being lynched who is town. They pushed both of those narratives hard.
Killjoy is also basically on the same page. My homework assignment for myself is to figure out if it's simply coincidence, if my suspicions on him are coloring his reads, if Colin really is town like I thought, if I should switch them in my POE, or if I should marry Colin.
It's easy for me to be wrong about Killjoy, in that I don't know his meta. I need to research it. It's possible his pattern and solving methods vary from game to game and I got a false positive read on him being scum.
The issue there is there are a few too many coincidences. They pushed, all of them, together, the narrative of Pizza is scummy/crazy and a suspect, but No Lynch is the best option, the moment I was away from keyboard. All of them, together. Back to back to back.
Disregarding Grapefruit as a top suspect after the counterclaim and missing kill, while I claimed to be roleblocked, entertaining the absurd scenario where town has 2 vigs and no kills off of those vigs, with my power also being innocent, leaving a ton of people I have lock town as the only folks we can really suspect. That solve doesn't smell honest. Not only that, "killing" Jenna but then putting them as town on no process is what Grape did, but somehow Grape can be town, Jenna can be town, Killjoy is putting himself town, and then he also put me as potentially town as well all in the same post.
But how are actions on me n1 invisible while kills on Jenna n1 are also not viable? How is that possible?
That's not solving, to me. It's possible he's just sloppy, I mean, I've been wrong about that before on other people.
But this is not right. At some point over the past 3 days of game time, something should have happened to make me think Killjoy is a townie with a legitimate solving process. At the critical moment when I was away, instead of a process that makes sense, he was pushing a radically odd world where No Lynch is a good idea, Grapefruit is town, I'm also town, and what happened on n1 makes sense with me and grape both being town, while ALSO not suspecting Jenna at the same time.
N1 proves there's a wolf inside Pizza, Grape, and Jenna. I know it isn't me. There's no way there's that much kill stopping and ability stopping happening all at once, with it all being town powers. Colin verified stuff on me n1 doesn't work. That's one activity stopping power in play. How can you explain Jenna not dying if Grapefruit shot there, if Colin is on me? Colin might be a doctor, but if he's on me, he's not protecting Jenna. Jenna is not bulletproof while I'm a commuter and we're both townies. Grape and Jenna can't both be townies given their progressions on one another.
Putting me, Jenna, and Grape all as telling the truth is not a solve. It's too improbable for me to believe anyone realistically thought that was a viable thought at any time in one post. You can't do that. Someone's lying there, and it's not me. That's what made me stop bothering to go ahead with questioning Killjoy and finding out if he's townie. He basically already failed the test, before it began.
ramble ramble random thoughts. First chance I've had to post today, Mtgs/curse was not working for me even though the website was up.
Disagree with whoever said it could just be scum "wanting it more". "Wanting it more" would be having an ISO 6 pages long instead of 12 pages long. He's given himself so much room to make an unforced error while faking a villager process (in particular his escalation and deescalation of his plan to make Colin and Killjoy answer questions) that I don't see it as a wolf. He's almost certainly trying to keep Town aligned to his reads once he's NK'd.
Don't have much to say on his particulars, I think he's good enough at faking details that they move the needle little.
Yeah, the workload and ISOs themselves are NAI.
Day 2 was me trying to leave a legacy, point at a scum, draw the kill, and try to stop the slide into villagers mislynching. I was all about defending my town reads and denying mislynches that I saw, I'm pissed at myself for allowing one to happen even in the circumstances we were in.
Day 3 was kitchen sink mode. I put too many people into my village, I had to kick someone out and paint a world that made sense. The first attempt was jenna-kj-grape, and grape is definitely correct. Jenna, as the day got on, locked into a guilty verdict.
For he past several days, I've been going back and forth with colin instead of killjoy universes to be thorough, and I even thought about a colin-killjoy-grape universe, but Jenna is just making that universe impossible to take seriously. I can't ever believe that one is real.
Where I'm at on Colin after thorough re-read is that their pushes, like Tubba's, all appear to be losing for town, helping the wolves, on d1 and d2. I follow how Tubba got there, and I even follow how those reads can occur from Colin. The process looks okay. Buuuut, if Colin is good at faking the process, I can't detect that, because they don't post much and they're absent a lot, they look to be coasting, a little.
But the false positives I can get from reading Colin this way, in my experience, are many.
The case is simply this: Colin isn't lock town and all the moves they're making that look like villagery solving can also be helpful to the wolf team and could have been intentional for that purpose. In other words, Colin could be a good wolf.
When I weigh that case against Grape, its no contest, Grape is hardcore outed.
Compare that to the case against Jenna, and their reaction to my push today was locking scummy, their push for the no lynch also locking scummy, pushing any universe where we eliminate a suspect by not lynching grape, I'll never believe. If Jenna is town we already lost this game, I'm not exploring this universe any longer.
Compare that to the case against Killjoy, and Killjoy doesn't feel like himself, doesn't feel like a villager in general, built a universe where grape and jenna and me and himself are all telling the truth (villagers), and lent verbal support to the no lynch idea while not obviously just pushing it outright.
How they described my process as bad, just looks like discrediting.
I cannot lock Killjoy wolf 100 percent of the time, I don't have all his games in my brain.
I cannot lock Colin town 100 percent of the time, he's not done enough to push him out of "scums can do this" land.
But the distance is still very far apart.
What I did today was I pushed Colin as town, and after being satisfied with Grape and Jenna as wolves, and everyone else as townies, I looked into Colin and saw from a devil's advocate perspective, a potentially winning scum plan executed in his posts.
It could also be a villager who is just biting at things that seem to need to be bitten. It could be a wolf biting at things that are easy to bite.
The process reads villagery enough. But it's no lock.
What has kept strong suspicion off of there is the old, old, old case against Killjoy. Doesn't look like him.
With Grape/Jenna, Killjoy scum makes Colin town.
So I've been trying to figure out if Killjoy can possibly have played this game this way if he randed town.
Since I've been unable to login for a bit and I've been very satisfied about early-midround that he outed himself as well, I didn't do another full ISO on him.
Since his style is a lot of multiquotes, it's also hard to multiquote his ISO and show you what I find. Just, in general, I feel like the biggest scum tell is who he's pushing and who he's talking to and who he was ignoring for d1 and d2, and how bear/grape reacted to him and how Jenna did, and what little they had to say about both, and of course, all this neutral language in his posts, which I highlighted in the previous summary.
I know that's different from Low Fantasy, but, that's a one game meta read. I'd need to ISO him in lots of games and determine if that one game meta read is even accurate or if it is statistical noise.
I've come to know that villagers can sometimes do literally everything all game that helps the scums and looks scummy and looks like an illegitimate process and still be a villager.
I hadn't nailed that possibility down as not a possibility. I still have not, but... I almost can't let Killjoy pass here.
My default answer is that he's gotta be a scumbag. Like, the difference in the cases here is "Colin isn't lock town and has pushed villagers", but a lot of us have. The case on Killjoy is planet-sized. There's a looooot of thoughts that just shouldn't exist at all, guilty circumstantial evidence, strong 1 game meta differences, and an especially wrong agenda today, and all that neutrality that also shouldn't exist.
At a certain point I kind of have to call it a day, and in any ordinary game I would. It's just that I'm still alive and I have to do something with all this time staring at the wall. I feel like I'm counting bricks and naming them at this point. 2 week phases just do not work well with me.
I want to die and just have my reads be posted for people to read or discard as they see fit, but if I got it wrong on Colin/KJ and that's the only part of the game I am not satisfied completely with, I'll use whatever time I have to look there.
Looking and presenting are two different things, and since I'll have to ISO more than just this game, I don't have anything to present yet.
We have only a couple days left of the round and we need five votes. It's time to vote for Grapefruit, reaverb.
Don't risk any situation where we end up with only 4 votes. If you can't make it online or spaced the deadline, we lose. All for something we could have prevented.
Everyone needs to place a vote. No Lynch loses for town.
If there's stuff left unfinished, then it shall be so. It's been almost 2 weeks, and GF is outed. He can't be town unless his wagon is full of wolves.
If his wagon is full of wolves, this game makes absolutely no sense whatsoever and I don't want to read it anymore. We also are not saving the game in that universe, there's too much that has gone wrong. Dota would have to be a wolf and that's something I would never suggest is real.
I'll pass my conclusions on to someone when I read overnight with my message power. If it's important enough that scums want to roleblock that, be my guest. I'm okay for the round to end with votes now, and scared it won't end with enough votes.
None of KJ, Jenna, or Grape are voting for grape, I can't expect any of them to vote that way when they can get a no lynch by not doing so.
Grape is outed in every universe except one where town had 2 vigilantes and at least 2 of Colin, Pizza, and Dota are wolves, otherwise the game already ended in a wolfy hammer and town lost.
Pizza and Dota are solid townies. Colin is likely a townie. There are not 2 wolves on Grape and not 2 town vigilantes in any game this size ever.
Let's make like a pizza and roll, can't risk any other vote.
Legacy: Jenna and KJ played this round with stubborn insistence that grape can be town and that they "don't know" and are "unsure" where else to suspect.
The level of certainty on the first thing and the level of uncertainty on the second thing is not villagery too many times out of 100.
I don't know Jenna Tolaria from Adam's naughty bits, but that's not a process I come across from villagers at MYLO, to be sure of the least likely universe and pushing no solid wolf team that makes sense with their own top suspect. Not to mention asking for no lynch on a round where we have so many people who should be townies, and claimed active powers still in play. Where's the townie vigilance to suspect Grape? Even if it were wrong somehow, that should have happened.
I like Killjoy but the dude had a lot more certainty about his reads last game. He was willing to go to bat. This round, he stalled and pushed weird worlds. He doesn't read like someone who has to win the game today or town loses, the only time I saw him putting enough effort into anything to call it going for a win, was discrediting me, pushing grape as a likely townie, and saying no lynch sounds swell. Everything else is not MYLO-worthy from him.
This round should have had people with a sense of urgency pushing universes that win for town, and they had to BELIEVE those universes.
KJ and Jenna don't meet those standards. Sadly, some of my townies barely cleared that hurdle, too, and I felt like they were AWOL most of the round.
I just gotta trust that you guys are villagers based on your process being much more legitimate looking, and accept the fact that not everyone can post often. Colin, to his credit, said that's why he doesn't post much. I get it.
Always lynch Jenna tomorrow, and unless you hear more from me, my last pointed finger does not point at Colin, Tubba, Tau, or Dota. Those are my villagers. I'd have to find deeply confusing things in Killjoy's isos in other games as town to reverse here. And worse, even if I did, that means I'd need to be giving him a pass to do pro-wolfy things and not solve like a villager in games because that's something he can do.
I hate rolling dice, if you do wolfy things you gotta eat a lynch. If we run out of lynches because town did wolfy things, then wolves win. That's how the game goes and I'll lose to wolves who are townier than my townies.
None of KJ, Jenna, or Grape are voting for grape, I can't expect any of them to vote that way when they can get a no lynch by not doing so.
Grape is outed in every universe except one where town had 2 vigilantes and at least 2 of Colin, Pizza, and Dota are wolves, otherwise the game already ended in a wolfy hammer and town lost.
Pizza and Dota are solid townies. Colin is likely a townie. There are not 2 wolves on Grape and not 2 town vigilantes in any game this size ever.
Let's make like a pizza and roll, can't risk any other vote.
Ohhh hey Pizza's finally describing the real world. Being entirely wrong about Colin was painful (and it still could be KJ, but that last slot can wait), but c'est la vie. Like I can respect all the effort he's putting into trying to force this lynch through and win the game but I am a vig and I'm not going to let Pizza win off my mislynch this easily.
He's still insisting, on his baseless fear mongering, that a no lynch will end the game which has no basis in anything other than pressuring town to force a lynch through today.
I didn't originally take their low activity as scummy because I know them from off-site and they're normally better than their activity here as either alignments. After drawing that conclusion I decided to mostly dismiss their posts as a nulltell, which I now think was a mistake.
I still believe their access problems were a big reason they looked so bad. That said, on re-read I think this might be a case of somebody having a double-struggle of being scum and having meta problems. I've seen this a few times - somebody can normally play well as both alignments, but when they have a meta problem they scum play is affected far more than their Town play. In retrospect their sudden good post at the end of Day 1 could be seen as evidence of this, once they got kicked into action they did alright. Another thing I noticed on re-read is that they claim to be using the machine (a votal analysis tool) which requires quite a bit of careful updating (it requires noting the post # of every post with a vote in it based on who is the voter / votee.
Going to do grapefruit ISO in future, was going to do it just not but got distracted for a couple hours.
I promise @pizza I'll vote grapefruit tomorrow if I'm not completely finished with my ISOs.
DoTArchon is V/LA until the deadline. Colin has failed to respond to his most recent prod and will be forcibly replaced -- if a replacement can be found.
None of KJ, Jenna, or Grape are voting for grape, I can't expect any of them to vote that way when they can get a no lynch by not doing so.
Grape is outed in every universe except one where town had 2 vigilantes and at least 2 of Colin, Pizza, and Dota are wolves, otherwise the game already ended in a wolfy hammer and town lost.
Pizza and Dota are solid townies. Colin is likely a townie. There are not 2 wolves on Grape and not 2 town vigilantes in any game this size ever.
Let's make like a pizza and roll, can't risk any other vote.
Ohhh hey Pizza's finally describing the real world. Being entirely wrong about Colin was painful (and it still could be KJ, but that last slot can wait), but c'est la vie. Like I can respect all the effort he's putting into trying to force this lynch through and win the game but I am a vig and I'm not going to let Pizza win off my mislynch this easily.
He's still insisting, on his baseless fear mongering, that a no lynch will end the game which has no basis in anything other than pressuring town to force a lynch through today.
"Fear mongering" is a great way to spin sense of urgency and a sense of danger, something you and killjoy demonstrated zero of this round. You also have to point out, three other people said no lynch today was a bad idea, before I even had a chance to weigh in on it. I note that the narrative that I was trying to fear monger ignores the actual sequence of events. Who was I fear mongering, when I was fourth in line to say no lynch is a bad idea because we could lose outright? It's a good narrative to push but it doesn't match the facts of what happened.
Let's pretend I am dumb and I can't tell from the vote count + your claim right now that you're guilty. In such a universe, I'd still be suspecting you for sitting on your hands for two weeks at mylo and not advancing a solve. A lot of people haven't been doing much, but somehow in more posts than them, you managed to do LESS.
Your day three has been as follows: "I'm a vigilante, I was roleblocked and may be roleblocked again, oh but I only have one shot, and I wasted it, and we should no lynch because that costs us a villager, and I have no real suspects except the guy accusing me".
You tell me, in your own words, how that is a villager attempting to solve a mystery.
Well, not me, because as I said, I won't dangle a villager read in front of your face like it's an actual prize that could ever be won. You explain to Tau and Tubba how it is so.
I'm never scum reading DOTA before you. And I won't accuse myself of being scum. And even if it were Dota in a miraculous universe, Colin isn't also a wolf too. That's my second villager in even the unlikely universe.
2 villagers voting for you bare minimum means this party would be over by now.
I shake your hand for putting in what you have today despite being outed while counterclaiming megs. I have to respect that effort, and I do. No joke or sarcasm intended. If Shadow is right in that you struggle as a wolf and don't like being one, you put in a lot this game, enough to fool some of the usual audience members. That's your job as scum and I'd never hold it against you.
I just don't play with the mouse when I'm a cat. I don't want to waste your time and suggest I'm gonna town read you after what happened all game, or indeed, after bear's day one and your day 2. I know me, and I know I don't ever stop when I'm scum hunting someone, and it can get exhausting. I call it the mercy rule: If I suspect you and won't change my mind, I'm not gonna keep badgering you. Then you have to keep responding to me and that can be un-fun after a while, and frustrating. Didn't want to put you through that, just wanted to focus on solving everyone else as best I could and being villagery and persuasive. After all, I need four people to agree with me who had not been able to agree on the color of *****e until today. I kind of had my hands full as well.
If that's your final case to be made today then it's my obligation to say how it's wrong, and why you're still not villaging.
If you and the other folks I'm suspecting had gone even harder, with more confident world-building, and avoided the no lynch push, you may very well have convinced a villager to get confused. If it ever gets to four votes on me, then we get into the universe where it's 4-4 and someone has to move to cause a lynch. Then you could have used fear mongering, as you put it, to convince a villager to move from you onto me, because a no lynch is bad for town.
That was a possible sell. That's what I'd have gone for if I were on your team, and I would have advised the wolves to take advantage of town's moment of indecision and inactivity to out-village the village. That was a possibility, an opportunity that was not taken advantage of.
I'm one voice. Three people looking strongly villagery pushing me would drown me out. It's possible, and it has happened before.
As Tom said last game, don't be afraid of me. Don't let me intimidate you. Just seize the day and push your worlds, you just need to create enough confusion to push one villager out of place, in a village that was out of place all game.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Agree his Jenna stuff early D2 is inconsistent with him shooting them. I would expect a scumread or trying to figure out their alignment but instead there's some incredibly soft questions, only to put them quite high in #548 with very little process in-between (compare #374). I do think having 2 Town Vigilantes would be weird. I think on balance the fact he did it during the EoD rush makes it more likely to be false, given it reduces the "But why would scum claim that?" factor. Additionally, his behavior this day phase has been rather subdued for somebody who would be the game losing game lynch if Town. Nothing much else stands out (which is scummy, nothing else looks especially Town).
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Presumably that means we lose after the night is over, or if not tonight, then tomorrow when Pizza has his way. This has been less fun than I anticipated, between absent players and Pizza's hostile manner. But thank you for the game nonetheless.
I still don't get why we didn't no lynch. We had the chance to remove a suspect and instead over the course of two weeks the game led up to the inevitable outcome. I'm not terribly upset. I just feel like it was a waste of time.
I still don't get why we didn't no lynch. We had the chance to remove a suspect and instead over the course of two weeks the game led up to the inevitable outcome. I'm not terribly upset. I just feel like it was a waste of time.
no compelling argument for it. As well, the second vig is a decent reason to Lynch grape. It's not definitive because we don't have Colin role to figure out the have, but in absence of other info, two vigs probably are to much
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
If there is 1 kill during the night, it's still possible one of the kills got stopped by someone.
Do not attempt to solve the game mechanically. Only read people's posts. lynch or lose is not a time when claims should sway you over posts.
Always get a 100 percent firm read on every living player and always read the entire game before pulling the trigger on someone I said was a townie. You could be right, but don't do it because claims/mechanics. You cannot verify claims anymore, it's too late.
The scums could even leave Colin alive on purpose just to get you to lynch there. Just re-assess everyone at final whatever it is. Don't go based off of claims.
If that's the last I get to say this game, don't ignore that part. read and re-asses, don't automatically vote.
You need to have good reasons why those reasons are wrong.
Summary:
Tau has a process that is unfakable. This is legitimately the best villager I've ever seen. He could be wrong on his guesses and still be a villager. And I think he's close to the mark anyway.
Dota cannot be a wolf. Grapefruit/Bear slot pushed him to what should have been his death on day one, and that was before they were under pressure. Grape scum means Dota is a villager.
Tubba is 1000 times better at acting like a villager this game. He has a process he believes and he's spoken more. This can be wrong but not often, and if he wins as scum here, virtual handshake for the massive improvement.
Colin and bear interactions look okay/good, not lock clearing for Colin. But Colin's posts are decent, meaty, and have content for most of the game.
I cannot lock clear him, but I can't find much of anything that's villagery going on outside of these four.
I just don't know. I like a lot of this process but I have questions. I should have stuck to the plan and did my questioning process in full on Colin.
I just can't explain Killjoy's behavior today any other way than as scum behavior going for the win. If he's a villager that just happens to look exactly like scum, I don't know how to get there on him at all.
Claim of knowledge stuff doesn't work on me n1 not meshing exactly with the posts I'm seeing. If you target me n1 and get no results, you should be paying closer attention to me.
No?
I suppose he could think he's been roleblocked which doesn't lead directly to interest in me specifically.
I'll re-ISO killjoy I suppose, and try really hard to look for villaging I can understand. If I talk myself into this and it's right, that's quite a save. If I talk myself out of this and I end up being wrong, its on the list of town's biggest blunders.
It looks exactly like the three I mentioned.
Not saying I'm flipping the read, just... have to double check everything super carefully.
Reaverb 4 days ago
Grapefruit 2 days ago
Colin 2 days ago
Archon today
Killjoy today
Pizza today
Myself today
Half of the game is gone. Even I took a 3-day break and nothing happened. The energy and excitement is long gone. I'm comfortable with stopping playing if everyone else is.
@Colin
This is the part I'm having the most trouble with. It's not specific and leaves too many options on the table. I can read the ISO villagery and I can also see how it just pushes villagers. I need clarification.
There are only three places where the wolves can be at any given time. It cannot be vague; if certain people are town then it leaves only a couple specific places it can be. If you cross yourself off of the list, and you put Grape and Jenna in two of the wolf spots, there's still a wolf spot to fill. It should be simple, but there are a lot of never-lynch townies alive.
But the issue for me is that Tau is not an option and Dota is not an option. Grapefruit cancels Dota as an option. They're never on a team. And such an argument really can't be made, according to everything I've read this game. There's no way they push Dota when Osie is so lynchable. And they pushed it hard, kept Dota in contention for a long time. If someone accuses Dota of being a wolf, if they're townie, we just lose. I'm almost sure of it. If someone accuses Dota of being a wolf and the accuser is a wolf, well they need to die instead.
We agree on Tau. I don't ever lynch there.
That just leaves Tubba and myself. And I don't know if I buy a case on Tubba either. It would help to know what it is you've found that makes you disagree.
What specific case on a specific someone else? And why is Killjoy town? It is too crucial a detail to just leave vague. If there is any potential likelihood that you are about to die, you should make your thoughts / final reads as apparent, specific, and persuasive as possible.
If it's not Killjoy, I also need the help. Suppose you die, and it wasn't Killjoy. Who specifically are you pointing at and why? What should I be looking at more closely?
Not to rock the boat too hard but village needs to be married to each other to win. If there's uncertainty remaining it needs to be shaken out and addressed while we're still here to talk about it. I'm not comfortable with generalities, I need specifics.
If you're accusing Tubba specifically I need to know. And if I die, it needs to be a topic of conversation tomorrow, it can't just pass into nothingness.
I got killed by loose ends too often too recently to not ask about this. Anak looked a whole lot like a wolf to me last game and so I basically stopped looking in every corner for the final one. Three was enough and the fourth seemed obvious.
I'm not allowed to rest until I find one more villager, and I have wedding jitters over the claim, your pushes, and this generality.
Help me settle this so I can rest. I've looked at this game for too long to be this worried over what should be a sure thing.
It's more up to the game host, but if any slot goes inactive, it's really unfair on both the host and the players.
If it were unanimous among the active players, I'd agree to a draw just due to the fact that we have had so much inactivity and it's killing the fun.
I put a lot of work into this game, but if people aren't having fun, which is the point after all, then I'd sign off on "they lived peacefully happily ever after" ending where no one loses. Since we showed up and tried.
I want to play but I've been painting a brick wall for days and it's not moving much.
I would also be fine with such a vote movement. But it would have to include more than just us two.
I think there is an outside chance that Grape actually is the scum with an additional shot, they seem desperate not to lynch there specifically. If any round called for a bus, this is one of them. It is inadvisable to tie one's fate to that particular sinking ship.
I am okay with standing pat as Grape is scum. But I find Jenna to be approximately equal. If they were town we're always losing this game because I cannot town read them.
The vote movement shouldn't accomplish anything but if it helps anyone read the game or if they need a specific flip, Jenna is okay with me to be lynched ahead of grape, no one else.
Once again, still really sure it's grape/jenna, feel like I need to look at pizza/dota to be through. Will do that before Day ends.
Please do, Pizza being willing to audible to Megs yesterday makes no sense given the level of conviction he'd been expressing in his read on me.
Can you speak to any of the things I asked you five days ago? So you think Dot and Grape are town, ok, why?
Who do you think is scum and why? That's the problem, cryptic statements once in awhile aren't going to cut it at this point. If we don't get scum we lose. So if you're not scum, help me understand where you're coming from on your reads.
My big problem is nobody thought Voxx/Pizza was a thing until they had pressure brought on them. I'll be honest, I think it'd be a great feather in my cap to catch Pizza out. The game state is just not reflecting that.
However, nobody said anything about the possibility of Voxx/Pizza. Would scum not take advantage of that opportunity to push dirt on a veteran player? Why is a veteran player like Voxx/Pizza still alive?
Archon and Grapefruit, and now you, are the only people directly addressing me. For the rest it is too little too late.
@Jenna What do you see as townie about Dota? Because I don't see it at all. And I've outlined my case on him multiple times.
@Tubba He was trying. Effort hides a lot of sins. Once the PoE shrank by 2 and I really buckled down I decided his play just couldn't be blustering town. His initial hard town read of Dota was a red flag but it looked like it could be legitimate. As did his textless scum read of me that really turned out to be more about Bear than myself. They pinged me, but I thought he was town because that level of energy and engagement is hard to fake. But as it kept playing out it became clear that he was scum. His aforementioned unnecessary switch to Megs, his moving the goal posts on me, his almost entirely opaque read of Dota. None of those are real reads that make any sort of sense. Throw in the bluster and theatrics and I am convinced he's a wolf.
Disagree with whoever said it could just be scum "wanting it more". "Wanting it more" would be having an ISO 6 pages long instead of 12 pages long. He's given himself so much room to make an unforced error while faking a villager process (in particular his escalation and deescalation of his plan to make Colin and Killjoy answer questions) that I don't see it as a wolf. He's almost certainly trying to keep Town aligned to his reads once he's NK'd.
Don't have much to say on his particulars, I think he's good enough at faking details that they move the needle little.
This kind of question is very much a WIFOM question. But, there are actual factors of the game that could be examined and have it not be a simple question of is the poison in the goblet in front, or further away, with no way to tell. There are some factors that should tip the scales:
To me, the factors that are most likely to have affected that situation: Voxx was obviously playing to draw a kill. I even admitted it explicitly. You don't do that if you have doctor or detective powers. Those are the powers scums are most concerned with, when the vig is dead.
Next big thing is Shadowlancerx, his reads. I didn't agree with all of them, but Grape as a suspect? Oh hell yes.
He suspected both Bear/fruit and Jenna on day 1, moved off of Grape d2, but was willing to go back onto Grapefruit. And he never locked Jenna town. Two highly scummy people, one hard outed at this point, and Shadow had been accusing both. He was someone who is unlikely to be lynched AND is someone who could have a power hidden away. He was also top poster and not under a ton of suspicion since the five wagon on him d1. There's just no way to create a narrative where he's a wolf, and get that lynch. He's a danger of pushing a wolf to death today. He could have a power.
Why not pizza?
Thing is, I was the one pushing Grape the hardest, even though I was not first to the party. If I am killed, that lends a lot of credibility to my push on Grape. If Shadow is killed, he was going back and forth on Grape. His suspicions on Grape don't lend themselves to immediately being thought of as the motive for the kill. His suspicions elsewhere were not strong enough and can be dismissed or forgotten. Plus, until last night, I had Jenna as town over Colin. Shadow didn't have Jenna as explicitly town.
Obviously, if Jenna is guilty, there's really no reason to kill me. Jenna can ride my villagery body to endgame and win it. We are at mislynch and lose, so all pizza has to do is guess wrong once, and I was guessing wrong, I'm almost certain of it. Jenna outed today under the pressure, in my mind. I had an iso where I felt like I saw a villagery process on Jenna, and had Colin and Shadow between Jenna and my suspicions pile. Should have been comfortable enough for MYLO.
And the person I was pushing correctly, Grape, counterclaimed / outed himself to kill Megiddo. Me being correct about Grape and getting Grape lynched today does not actually make the wolves' position any worse than it was at the end of d2. Grape being outed isn't new info after he's lynched on day three.
If I spend all round pushing grape, everyone else on the scum team survives to the next round. Town hasn't made any real progress, except that we have indeed lynched the outed wolf, which should have been a given.
Things changed, however, after I opened the round with Jenna in my suspects list. Grape and Jenna in particular seemed to have gotten desperate, but after being shaken for a few days decided to push forward with a path to victory.
At least, at that moment, they believed they had a path to victory. That path is easily Grapefruit not being lynched, and No Lynch winning the day, or anyone being lynched who is town. They pushed both of those narratives hard.
Killjoy is also basically on the same page. My homework assignment for myself is to figure out if it's simply coincidence, if my suspicions on him are coloring his reads, if Colin really is town like I thought, if I should switch them in my POE, or if I should marry Colin.
It's easy for me to be wrong about Killjoy, in that I don't know his meta. I need to research it. It's possible his pattern and solving methods vary from game to game and I got a false positive read on him being scum.
The issue there is there are a few too many coincidences. They pushed, all of them, together, the narrative of Pizza is scummy/crazy and a suspect, but No Lynch is the best option, the moment I was away from keyboard. All of them, together. Back to back to back.
Disregarding Grapefruit as a top suspect after the counterclaim and missing kill, while I claimed to be roleblocked, entertaining the absurd scenario where town has 2 vigs and no kills off of those vigs, with my power also being innocent, leaving a ton of people I have lock town as the only folks we can really suspect. That solve doesn't smell honest. Not only that, "killing" Jenna but then putting them as town on no process is what Grape did, but somehow Grape can be town, Jenna can be town, Killjoy is putting himself town, and then he also put me as potentially town as well all in the same post.
But how are actions on me n1 invisible while kills on Jenna n1 are also not viable? How is that possible?
That's not solving, to me. It's possible he's just sloppy, I mean, I've been wrong about that before on other people.
But this is not right. At some point over the past 3 days of game time, something should have happened to make me think Killjoy is a townie with a legitimate solving process. At the critical moment when I was away, instead of a process that makes sense, he was pushing a radically odd world where No Lynch is a good idea, Grapefruit is town, I'm also town, and what happened on n1 makes sense with me and grape both being town, while ALSO not suspecting Jenna at the same time.
N1 proves there's a wolf inside Pizza, Grape, and Jenna. I know it isn't me. There's no way there's that much kill stopping and ability stopping happening all at once, with it all being town powers. Colin verified stuff on me n1 doesn't work. That's one activity stopping power in play. How can you explain Jenna not dying if Grapefruit shot there, if Colin is on me? Colin might be a doctor, but if he's on me, he's not protecting Jenna. Jenna is not bulletproof while I'm a commuter and we're both townies. Grape and Jenna can't both be townies given their progressions on one another.
Putting me, Jenna, and Grape all as telling the truth is not a solve. It's too improbable for me to believe anyone realistically thought that was a viable thought at any time in one post. You can't do that. Someone's lying there, and it's not me. That's what made me stop bothering to go ahead with questioning Killjoy and finding out if he's townie. He basically already failed the test, before it began.
ramble ramble random thoughts. First chance I've had to post today, Mtgs/curse was not working for me even though the website was up.
Yeah, the workload and ISOs themselves are NAI.
Day 2 was me trying to leave a legacy, point at a scum, draw the kill, and try to stop the slide into villagers mislynching. I was all about defending my town reads and denying mislynches that I saw, I'm pissed at myself for allowing one to happen even in the circumstances we were in.
Day 3 was kitchen sink mode. I put too many people into my village, I had to kick someone out and paint a world that made sense. The first attempt was jenna-kj-grape, and grape is definitely correct. Jenna, as the day got on, locked into a guilty verdict.
For he past several days, I've been going back and forth with colin instead of killjoy universes to be thorough, and I even thought about a colin-killjoy-grape universe, but Jenna is just making that universe impossible to take seriously. I can't ever believe that one is real.
Where I'm at on Colin after thorough re-read is that their pushes, like Tubba's, all appear to be losing for town, helping the wolves, on d1 and d2. I follow how Tubba got there, and I even follow how those reads can occur from Colin. The process looks okay. Buuuut, if Colin is good at faking the process, I can't detect that, because they don't post much and they're absent a lot, they look to be coasting, a little.
But the false positives I can get from reading Colin this way, in my experience, are many.
The case is simply this: Colin isn't lock town and all the moves they're making that look like villagery solving can also be helpful to the wolf team and could have been intentional for that purpose. In other words, Colin could be a good wolf.
When I weigh that case against Grape, its no contest, Grape is hardcore outed.
Compare that to the case against Jenna, and their reaction to my push today was locking scummy, their push for the no lynch also locking scummy, pushing any universe where we eliminate a suspect by not lynching grape, I'll never believe. If Jenna is town we already lost this game, I'm not exploring this universe any longer.
Compare that to the case against Killjoy, and Killjoy doesn't feel like himself, doesn't feel like a villager in general, built a universe where grape and jenna and me and himself are all telling the truth (villagers), and lent verbal support to the no lynch idea while not obviously just pushing it outright.
How they described my process as bad, just looks like discrediting.
I cannot lock Killjoy wolf 100 percent of the time, I don't have all his games in my brain.
I cannot lock Colin town 100 percent of the time, he's not done enough to push him out of "scums can do this" land.
But the distance is still very far apart.
What I did today was I pushed Colin as town, and after being satisfied with Grape and Jenna as wolves, and everyone else as townies, I looked into Colin and saw from a devil's advocate perspective, a potentially winning scum plan executed in his posts.
It could also be a villager who is just biting at things that seem to need to be bitten. It could be a wolf biting at things that are easy to bite.
The process reads villagery enough. But it's no lock.
What has kept strong suspicion off of there is the old, old, old case against Killjoy. Doesn't look like him.
With Grape/Jenna, Killjoy scum makes Colin town.
So I've been trying to figure out if Killjoy can possibly have played this game this way if he randed town.
Since I've been unable to login for a bit and I've been very satisfied about early-midround that he outed himself as well, I didn't do another full ISO on him.
Since his style is a lot of multiquotes, it's also hard to multiquote his ISO and show you what I find. Just, in general, I feel like the biggest scum tell is who he's pushing and who he's talking to and who he was ignoring for d1 and d2, and how bear/grape reacted to him and how Jenna did, and what little they had to say about both, and of course, all this neutral language in his posts, which I highlighted in the previous summary.
I know that's different from Low Fantasy, but, that's a one game meta read. I'd need to ISO him in lots of games and determine if that one game meta read is even accurate or if it is statistical noise.
I've come to know that villagers can sometimes do literally everything all game that helps the scums and looks scummy and looks like an illegitimate process and still be a villager.
I hadn't nailed that possibility down as not a possibility. I still have not, but... I almost can't let Killjoy pass here.
My default answer is that he's gotta be a scumbag. Like, the difference in the cases here is "Colin isn't lock town and has pushed villagers", but a lot of us have. The case on Killjoy is planet-sized. There's a looooot of thoughts that just shouldn't exist at all, guilty circumstantial evidence, strong 1 game meta differences, and an especially wrong agenda today, and all that neutrality that also shouldn't exist.
At a certain point I kind of have to call it a day, and in any ordinary game I would. It's just that I'm still alive and I have to do something with all this time staring at the wall. I feel like I'm counting bricks and naming them at this point. 2 week phases just do not work well with me.
I want to die and just have my reads be posted for people to read or discard as they see fit, but if I got it wrong on Colin/KJ and that's the only part of the game I am not satisfied completely with, I'll use whatever time I have to look there.
Looking and presenting are two different things, and since I'll have to ISO more than just this game, I don't have anything to present yet.
Don't risk any situation where we end up with only 4 votes. If you can't make it online or spaced the deadline, we lose. All for something we could have prevented.
Everyone needs to place a vote. No Lynch loses for town.
If there's stuff left unfinished, then it shall be so. It's been almost 2 weeks, and GF is outed. He can't be town unless his wagon is full of wolves.
If his wagon is full of wolves, this game makes absolutely no sense whatsoever and I don't want to read it anymore. We also are not saving the game in that universe, there's too much that has gone wrong. Dota would have to be a wolf and that's something I would never suggest is real.
I'll pass my conclusions on to someone when I read overnight with my message power. If it's important enough that scums want to roleblock that, be my guest. I'm okay for the round to end with votes now, and scared it won't end with enough votes.
None of KJ, Jenna, or Grape are voting for grape, I can't expect any of them to vote that way when they can get a no lynch by not doing so.
Grape is outed in every universe except one where town had 2 vigilantes and at least 2 of Colin, Pizza, and Dota are wolves, otherwise the game already ended in a wolfy hammer and town lost.
Pizza and Dota are solid townies. Colin is likely a townie. There are not 2 wolves on Grape and not 2 town vigilantes in any game this size ever.
Let's make like a pizza and roll, can't risk any other vote.
The level of certainty on the first thing and the level of uncertainty on the second thing is not villagery too many times out of 100.
I don't know Jenna Tolaria from Adam's naughty bits, but that's not a process I come across from villagers at MYLO, to be sure of the least likely universe and pushing no solid wolf team that makes sense with their own top suspect. Not to mention asking for no lynch on a round where we have so many people who should be townies, and claimed active powers still in play. Where's the townie vigilance to suspect Grape? Even if it were wrong somehow, that should have happened.
I like Killjoy but the dude had a lot more certainty about his reads last game. He was willing to go to bat. This round, he stalled and pushed weird worlds. He doesn't read like someone who has to win the game today or town loses, the only time I saw him putting enough effort into anything to call it going for a win, was discrediting me, pushing grape as a likely townie, and saying no lynch sounds swell. Everything else is not MYLO-worthy from him.
This round should have had people with a sense of urgency pushing universes that win for town, and they had to BELIEVE those universes.
KJ and Jenna don't meet those standards. Sadly, some of my townies barely cleared that hurdle, too, and I felt like they were AWOL most of the round.
I just gotta trust that you guys are villagers based on your process being much more legitimate looking, and accept the fact that not everyone can post often. Colin, to his credit, said that's why he doesn't post much. I get it.
Always lynch Jenna tomorrow, and unless you hear more from me, my last pointed finger does not point at Colin, Tubba, Tau, or Dota. Those are my villagers. I'd have to find deeply confusing things in Killjoy's isos in other games as town to reverse here. And worse, even if I did, that means I'd need to be giving him a pass to do pro-wolfy things and not solve like a villager in games because that's something he can do.
I hate rolling dice, if you do wolfy things you gotta eat a lynch. If we run out of lynches because town did wolfy things, then wolves win. That's how the game goes and I'll lose to wolves who are townier than my townies.
Ohhh hey Pizza's finally describing the real world. Being entirely wrong about Colin was painful (and it still could be KJ, but that last slot can wait), but c'est la vie. Like I can respect all the effort he's putting into trying to force this lynch through and win the game but I am a vig and I'm not going to let Pizza win off my mislynch this easily.
He's still insisting, on his baseless fear mongering, that a no lynch will end the game which has no basis in anything other than pressuring town to force a lynch through today.
I didn't originally take their low activity as scummy because I know them from off-site and they're normally better than their activity here as either alignments. After drawing that conclusion I decided to mostly dismiss their posts as a nulltell, which I now think was a mistake.
I still believe their access problems were a big reason they looked so bad. That said, on re-read I think this might be a case of somebody having a double-struggle of being scum and having meta problems. I've seen this a few times - somebody can normally play well as both alignments, but when they have a meta problem they scum play is affected far more than their Town play. In retrospect their sudden good post at the end of Day 1 could be seen as evidence of this, once they got kicked into action they did alright. Another thing I noticed on re-read is that they claim to be using the machine (a votal analysis tool) which requires quite a bit of careful updating (it requires noting the post # of every post with a vote in it based on who is the voter / votee.
Going to do grapefruit ISO in future, was going to do it just not but got distracted for a couple hours.
I promise @pizza I'll vote grapefruit tomorrow if I'm not completely finished with my ISOs.
The semi-official vote count is:
Grapefruit (3): (Pizza, DoTA, Colin) (L-2)
Pizza (2): (Jenna, Grapefruit) (L-3)
Not Voting (3): (Reaver, Killjoy, Tubba)
A real vote count will be delivered tomorrow when I get to my computer.
"Fear mongering" is a great way to spin sense of urgency and a sense of danger, something you and killjoy demonstrated zero of this round. You also have to point out, three other people said no lynch today was a bad idea, before I even had a chance to weigh in on it. I note that the narrative that I was trying to fear monger ignores the actual sequence of events. Who was I fear mongering, when I was fourth in line to say no lynch is a bad idea because we could lose outright? It's a good narrative to push but it doesn't match the facts of what happened.
Let's pretend I am dumb and I can't tell from the vote count + your claim right now that you're guilty. In such a universe, I'd still be suspecting you for sitting on your hands for two weeks at mylo and not advancing a solve. A lot of people haven't been doing much, but somehow in more posts than them, you managed to do LESS.
Your day three has been as follows: "I'm a vigilante, I was roleblocked and may be roleblocked again, oh but I only have one shot, and I wasted it, and we should no lynch because that costs us a villager, and I have no real suspects except the guy accusing me".
You tell me, in your own words, how that is a villager attempting to solve a mystery.
Well, not me, because as I said, I won't dangle a villager read in front of your face like it's an actual prize that could ever be won. You explain to Tau and Tubba how it is so.
I'm never scum reading DOTA before you. And I won't accuse myself of being scum. And even if it were Dota in a miraculous universe, Colin isn't also a wolf too. That's my second villager in even the unlikely universe.
2 villagers voting for you bare minimum means this party would be over by now.
I shake your hand for putting in what you have today despite being outed while counterclaiming megs. I have to respect that effort, and I do. No joke or sarcasm intended. If Shadow is right in that you struggle as a wolf and don't like being one, you put in a lot this game, enough to fool some of the usual audience members. That's your job as scum and I'd never hold it against you.
I just don't play with the mouse when I'm a cat. I don't want to waste your time and suggest I'm gonna town read you after what happened all game, or indeed, after bear's day one and your day 2. I know me, and I know I don't ever stop when I'm scum hunting someone, and it can get exhausting. I call it the mercy rule: If I suspect you and won't change my mind, I'm not gonna keep badgering you. Then you have to keep responding to me and that can be un-fun after a while, and frustrating. Didn't want to put you through that, just wanted to focus on solving everyone else as best I could and being villagery and persuasive. After all, I need four people to agree with me who had not been able to agree on the color of *****e until today. I kind of had my hands full as well.
If that's your final case to be made today then it's my obligation to say how it's wrong, and why you're still not villaging.
If you and the other folks I'm suspecting had gone even harder, with more confident world-building, and avoided the no lynch push, you may very well have convinced a villager to get confused. If it ever gets to four votes on me, then we get into the universe where it's 4-4 and someone has to move to cause a lynch. Then you could have used fear mongering, as you put it, to convince a villager to move from you onto me, because a no lynch is bad for town.
That was a possible sell. That's what I'd have gone for if I were on your team, and I would have advised the wolves to take advantage of town's moment of indecision and inactivity to out-village the village. That was a possibility, an opportunity that was not taken advantage of.
I'm one voice. Three people looking strongly villagery pushing me would drown me out. It's possible, and it has happened before.
As Tom said last game, don't be afraid of me. Don't let me intimidate you. Just seize the day and push your worlds, you just need to create enough confusion to push one villager out of place, in a village that was out of place all game.
Grapefruit21 - 3 (Askthepizzaguy, DoTArchon, Colin) (L-2)
Askthepizzaguy - 2 (Jenna Tolaria, Grapefruit21) (L-3)
Not Voting - 3 (Tubba Fett, Reaverb Tau, Killjoy)
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at 11:59 PM Eastern on 17 November.
Vote Count 1.8, Vote Count 1.9, Vote Count 1.10, Vote Count 1.11, Vote Count 1.12, Vote Count 1.13, Vote Count 1.Final
Day 2: Vote Count 2.1, Vote Count 2.2, Vote Count 2.3, Vote Count 2.4, Vote Count 2.5, Vote Count 2.Final
Day 3: Vote Count 3.1
I'll post more in this game later. I need to read some stuff.
Agree his Jenna stuff early D2 is inconsistent with him shooting them. I would expect a scumread or trying to figure out their alignment but instead there's some incredibly soft questions, only to put them quite high in #548 with very little process in-between (compare #374). I do think having 2 Town Vigilantes would be weird. I think on balance the fact he did it during the EoD rush makes it more likely to be false, given it reduces the "But why would scum claim that?" factor. Additionally, his behavior this day phase has been rather subdued for somebody who would be the game losing game lynch if Town. Nothing much else stands out (which is scummy, nothing else looks especially Town).
Vote: Grapefruit21
*crosses fingers*
Grape
Jenna
Tubba
Killjoy
Colin
Tau
Pizza
Dota
Scum